Posts tagged fantasy football

Reads Listens Views 5/30/2014

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Upside Down Strategy, Jeff Tedford, Ryan Riddle’s Draft Metrics, Kraken, and RSP Post-Draft Update.

What is Reads Listens Views?

If you’re new to the Rookie Scouting Portfolio blog, welcome.  May is normally a lighter month for me on the blog due to the short turnaround time for the RSP Post-Draft and the magazine schedule at my day job. Otherwise, I post links on Fridays to content I’m saving for later consumption or pieces that I found compelling. You may not like everything listed here, but you’re bound to like something.

Listens/Views

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I was a matriculate of this program. This is a fun composition from one of its students that sounds like the title.

Download the 2014 Rookie Scouting Portfolio + Post-Draft Update!

Friday’s are also my chance to thank you for reading my work, encourage you to follow the RSP blog, and download the Rookie Scouting Portfolio publication.

The 2014 Rookie Scouting Portfolio Post-Draft Add-On is ready for download.  If you’re in a dynasty league, the combination of the 2014 RSP and the RSP Post-Draft will have you prepared for this year and beyond. Want details? Need details? I have ’em right here:

  • 84 pages
  • How to use the RSP and RSP-Post Draft together
  • Overrated/Underrated
  • Good/Bad post-draft fits
  • UDFAs to watch
  • Long-term dynasty waiver wire gems
  • Strategic overview of 2014 rookie drafts
  • Tiered Value Chart Cheat Sheet across all positions
  • Post-Draft rankings analysis and commentary–including notes about impending contracts years of competition on the depth charts
  • Average Draft Position (ADP) Data of 19 dynasty drafts
  • RSP Ranking-to-ADP Value Data
  • Raw Data Worksheets to continue calculating additional ADP data for future drafts

Hell, take a video tour of the 2013 post-draft to see what I mean:

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T8f06wrsHVI&feature=share]

Seriously, this analysis is worth the price of the 2014 RSP package alone, but you get this as a part of your purchase with the 2014 RSP. Remember 10 percent of each sale is donated to Darkness to Light to prevent sexual abuse in communities across the United States. While that alone should get you to download the RSP package, do it because you will be blown away with the detail and insight of the analysis and content. It’s why the RSP has grown so much in the past nine years.

Best yet, 10 percent of each RSP sale is donated to Darkness to Light, a non-profit devoted to preventing and addressing sexual abuse through community training in schools, religious groups, and a variety of civic groups across the U.S.

Download the 2014 RSP and RSP Post-Draft here

In Case You Missed It/Coming Soon

Reads (Football)

Views

[youtube=http://youtu.be/DePFiF-nNoE]

H/T to RabidBuc.

 Reads (Life In General)

  • The ‘Miracle’ Berry That Could Replace Sugar – Miracle fruit contains a protein called miraculin that tastes sweet enough to replicate the effect of sugar.
  • Blue Note turns 75 – Not the club in New York or Tokyo, but the record label based in Englewood Cliffs, New Jersey. Check out some of the music and articles on NPR–especially the Lou Donaldson & Lonnie Liston set where Donaldson talks a little trash about “pop-jazz” and 50 cent. Ironically, it’s their brand of “hard-bop” that actually led to some of this music he was trashing. Good music though.
  • ‘Oh My Jesus!'” Shots Fired During NPR Interview in Chicago – An interview about gun violence is interrupted with gun violence.
  • The $6800, 84-mpg Elio is Getting Closer – This three-wheel, two-seat car is getting closer to its production standard with reservation list sporting 17,000. It qualifies as a motorcycle for driving, but they’re shooting for a 5-star safety rating. I don’t know if that’s a reflection of the car or a reflection of the government. I hope it’s the car.
  • A Series on the Koch Brothers – If you’re a conservative, you’re likely to look at this series in Mother Jones’ as a “hit-piece.” If you’re liberal, you’ll probably love it. If you’re a writer, you’ll probably judge it on the merits of the work. And if you’ve ever known anyone who was asked to sign a statement saying that you’ve never received welfare before one of their companies gives you a job, then you have a smidgeon of insight into them.
  • God, The Devil, and ‘Hannibal’ -I’m hearing this NBC series based on Hannibal Lecter is good. I watched some clips on Hulu and was impressed.
  • Intriguing Lime-Green Blobs Appear In The Andes Mountains. Are They Alive? – These “drops of lime sherbert” in the desert are about 2,000 years old.
  • How Gun Extremists Target Women – These people give responsible gun owners a bad name. Some of them even harassed a Marine Veteran on Memorial Day.

Views

You’ve probably seen this, but if you haven’t it’s worth it. Cool, but not surprising. My cat did this to save a kitten from two dogs about 9-10 years ago.

[youtube=http://youtu.be/sPccqkSjy8M]

Reads Listens Views 5/23/2014

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Rene Marie, gubernatorial debate worth watching, 20 Surreal Places, and RSP Post-Draft Update.

What is Reads Listens Views?

If you’re new to the Rookie Scouting Portfolio blog, welcome.  May is normally a lighter month for me on the blog due to the short turnaround time for the RSP Post-Draft and the magazine schedule at my day job. Otherwise, I post links on Fridays to content I’m saving for later consumption or pieces that I found compelling. You may not like everything listed here, but you’re bound to like something.

Listens/Views

[youtube=http://youtu.be/lfJJ4-AUyYg]

Idaho’s gubernatorial debate with characters out of a movie–true and fantastic!

Post-Draft On the Couch w/Sigmund Bloom

Linkalicious 

Download the 2014 Rookie Scouting Portfolio + Post-Draft Update!

Friday’s are also my chance to thank you for reading my work, encourage you to follow the RSP blog, and download the Rookie Scouting Portfolio publication.

The 2014 Rookie Scouting Portfolio Post-Draft Add-On is ready for download.  If you’re in a dynasty league, the combination of the 2014 RSP and the RSP Post-Draft will have you prepared for this year and beyond. Want details? Need details? I have ’em right here:

  • 84 pages
  • How to use the RSP and RSP-Post Draft together
  • Overrated/Underrated
  • Good/Bad post-draft fits
  • UDFAs to watch
  • Long-term dynasty waiver wire gems
  • Strategic overview of 2014 rookie drafts
  • Tiered Value Chart Cheat Sheet across all positions
  • Post-Draft rankings analysis and commentary–including notes about impending contracts years of competition on the depth charts
  • Average Draft Position (ADP) Data of 19 dynasty drafts
  • RSP Ranking-to-ADP Value Data
  • Raw Data Worksheets to continue calculating additional ADP data for future drafts

Hell, take a video tour of the 2013 post-draft to see what I mean:

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T8f06wrsHVI&feature=share]

Seriously, this analysis is worth the price of the 2014 RSP package alone, but you get this as a part of your purchase with the 2014 RSP. Remember 10 percent of each sale is donated to Darkness to Light to prevent sexual abuse in communities across the United States. While that alone should get you to download the RSP package, do it because you will be blown away with the detail and insight of the analysis and content. It’s why the RSP has grown so much in the past nine years.

Best yet, 10 percent of each RSP sale is donated to Darkness to Light, a non-profit devoted to preventing and addressing sexual abuse through community training in schools, religious groups, and a variety of civic groups across the U.S.

Download the 2014 RSP and RSP Post-Draft here

In Case You Missed It/Coming Soon

  • A Trip to The Thrift Store – Gut Check No.292 takes a look at players I think are emerging, progressing, in crowded scenarios, and at a crossroads.
  • Ka’Deem Carey Analysis – Coming Soon.
  • Futures: My Expansion Franchise – I’ve just been awarded an NFL expansion team and must build my personnel department. Here’s how I departed from many in the NFL.
  • The 2014 RSP Writers Project -Sometime after the draft, we’ll get this rolling.

Reads (Football)

Views

I just bought some photography from one of my readers, Adrian Landin. He and his girlfriend Ashlie are Dallas natives who have been nomads in Southeast Asia for some time now. They are selling their work at Etsy and its excellent work. If you seeking quality photography for your home or office and have affinity for landscapes, Southeast Asia, or quality work in general, head on over.

 Reads (Life In General)

Views

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Rene Marie is someone I just discovered in my musical travels. Hell, I can’t show you just one . . .
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The Gut Check No.292: A Trip to The Thrift Store

Jones-Drew-Maurice

Fantasy football in May is a month dominated by rookie coverage. It’s a good time to hit the thrift store and shop for values on a longer development curve.

 

Thrift stores are awesome. I arrived at this conclusion somewhat late in life. I held the assumption that the items in these stores were someone else’s rejects.

This is both true and false. The close might not have been wanted, but it had nothing to do with quality or even style. Your stubborn Uncle Jake only wears Wrangler jeans and refused to even try on the pair of Lucky’s that his sister in-law gave him for Christmas. Grandpa Kevin liked the Polo sweater, but it was three sizes too big and he didn’t want to make a fuss about it on his Birthday. Or, your Cousin Rick would have put that dress shirt you got at the men’s shop to good use if he hadn’t decided to cash in his chips as partner of an accounting firm and join the park service as a tour guide.

Fantasy football has a similar dynamic. Rookies are the rage from February through August. Everyone wants to find the first-year players who will have an immediate impact. But fantasy owners often forget about the young veterans who didn’t play well–or even play at all–as rookies. Some owners even write off these second, third, or fourth-year players developing on a slower learning curve or stuck behind a crowded depth chart.

This week, I’m checking in with these players. We can categorize them in four ways:

  1. Emerging – Talents likely to contribute or start this year.
  2. Progressing – Players who still appear on track to become starters or contributors within a year or two.
  3. Covered – Personnel with talent, but stuck on crowded depth charts.
  4. Crossroads – Prospects who might be in make or break seasons in the NFL.

Remember, you don’t always have to buy when you shop. Even if you don’t invest in any of these players, it’s a good idea to monitor their progress and research them during the spring and summer. The earlier become conversant with the potential of backups, the sooner you’ll be able to anticipate and react to changes on the fantasy landscape.

Say Drew Brees suffers a shoulder sprain in practice in mid-October. You could wait until Friday to read the first article sharing basics about Griffin that probably took longer for the writer to write than it would take for you to Google. By then, you might have lost a shot at Griffin in a league with a first come, first serve waiver wire.

Or you could have been aware of Griffin this summer, made it a point to watch him in the preseason, and knew right away to add the Saints’ backup so you could either use him or trade him. Fantasy football has a more level playing field thanks to our ever evolving technology. However, it still takes effort to read the right things and with enough advanced notice to plan ahead.

Reading about these young players provides a foundation of knowledge to build on when training camp and preseason games begin. As everyone else is still learning about the talent, whether its buying or selling them, you’re already making moves with the pieces to your advantage.

Read the rest at Footballguys.com

2013 RSP Post-Draft Video Tour

“I first experienced the RSP last year and after reading several pages, you got me for only god knows how much time you’ll be doing it. I’d prepay this for the next ten years easily. I mean it in the most sincere way, this has become my most anticipated read of the year and once again, I know it will be awesome.” – Dom

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T8f06wrsHVI&feature=share]

New to the RSP? Wondering what’s inside the RSP Post-Draft and how to use it? Take the video tour.

  • How the Pre-draft and Post-Draft work together.
  • Tour of the tiered cheat sheet. .
  • The use of ADP values and RSP values to help readers maximize dynasty draft value.

Download the RSP now and I’ll email you a week after the NFL Draft to let you know when the Post-Draft is ready for download. The publications are a package deal at $19.95.

I have readers tell me all the time that they would pay $19.95 just for the Post-Draft publication. I sell this as a package deal only because the pre-draft is just as important long-term as the post-draft. One feeds the other.

 

RSP Publication Update

The RSP is to draft analysis as Matt Forte is to NFL running backs - versatile, underrated, and appreciated by those in the know. Photo by John Martinez Pavliga.
The RSP is to draft analysis as Matt Forte is to NFL running backs – versatile, underrated, and appreciated by those in the know. Photo by John Martinez Pavliga.

The RSP is still on schedule for reader download on April 1.

I finished my last budgeted game of film study Friday night. Here is the rough list of players who will appear in the pre-draft publication. There are a handful of players who have not declared for the draft on this list. They will appear in the 2015 RSP.

There are also a handful of prospects I didn’t have a chance to study prior to my research deadline. Among them are quarterbacks Jordan Lynch, Tom Savage, and Keith Price. I’ll be studying them for the RSP Post-Draft Add-on, which you get free with purchase of the pre-draft publication.

For those of you new to the RSP, the April 1 publication ranks players on talent without regard to character or “draft stock”. The Post-Draft Add-on gives a pragmatic perspective to rankings based on the NFL Draft and is available for download a week after the draft.

I tell my readers that the pre-draft is the purer analysis. Three years from now, a player’s round of selection will mean much less than it will two months from now.

Sometimes, it happens three months after the draft: Marlon Brown, Kenbrell Thompkins, and Alfred Morris are all players that you wouldn’t find much about in most publications because they weren’t even considered “the supporting cast” on draft day. I have not have ranked them in my top-10, but I gave them prominent attention and ranking devoid of the class warfare that is draft status.

You’ll want to know about a player’s talent based on game film and football beat writers often lack the time, space, and knowledge to tell you. If you’re lucky, they’ll tell you where the player came from, when he was drafted (if at all), and some old stat or one-liner about his physical skills.

The savvy ones get the RSP.

You can order the 2014 Rookie Scouting Portfolio now and I’ll email you when its available for download on April 1 (sometimes earlier for those who order before that date). The Post-Draft Add-on comes with the 2012 – 2014 RSPs at no additional charge and is available for download within a week after the NFL Draft. Best, yet, 10 percent of every sale is donated to Darkness to Light to combat sexual abuse. You can purchase past editions of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio for just $9.95 apiece.

Footballguys Playoff Challenge

This year’s contest will award a record-smashing $150,000 Grand Prize and $500,000 in total guaranteed cash prizes, all based on a $200 entry fee. 

Footballguys.com and the FFPC present: The World Famous Playoff Challenge, the largest and most exciting playoff contest in all of fantasy football. This year’s contest will award a record-smashing $150,000 Grand Prize and $500,000 in total guaranteed cash prizes, all based on a $200 entry fee. This is the ONLY way to watch playoff football!

Who: The Footballguys Playoff Challenge is an online tournament presented by Footballguys.com and the FFPC.

When: Registration for the Footballguys Playoff Challenge is now underway – click HERE to sign up. The deadline to finalize your team is right before the kickoff of the first Wild Card playoff game at 4:15 PM Eastern Time on January 4, 2014.

How to Enter: The entry fee into the Footballguys Playoff Challenge is $200 per team. Registration is quick and easy. Entrants may register online with a credit card and you may enter as many times as you wish.

Prize Structure: The $150,000 Grand Prize as well as the entire $500,000 Footballguys Playoff Challenge prize structure is fully guaranteed. The full prize structure with payout amounts is listed below.

2013/2014 Playoff Challenge Prize Structure:
(all prizes fully guaranteed regardless of number of entries)

PLACE PRIZE
1st $150,000 Grand Prize
2nd $35,000
3rd $15,000
4th $10,000
5th $9,000
6th $8,000
7th $7,500
8th $7,500
9th $7,000
10th $6,000
11th $5,000
12th $5,000
13th $4,500
14th $4,500
15th $4,000
16th $3,500
17th $3,500
18th $3,000
19th $3,000
20th $3,000
21st to 30th $2,500 each
31st to 50th $1,500 each
51st to 70th $1,000 each
71st to 100th $750 each
101st to 150th $500 each
151st to 250th $400 each
251st to 350th $300 each
351st to 450th $200 each

 

Footballguys Players Championship Game Format: Choose an FFPC lineup (1QB 2RB 2WR 1TE 2FLEX[RB/WR/TE] 1K 1D/ST) of any 10 players from the 12 NFL playoff teams to create your team – but you may only choose ONE player or defense per NFL team. Your entire roster will score points each week of the NFL playoffs based on the FFPC scoring rules, and all points scored in the Super Bowl will be DOUBLED. Read on for more details.

Free Agents: There will be no free agency in the Footballguys Players Championship – the team you select prior to the kickoff of the first NFL Wild Card game will remain your team through the end of the contest.

Roster/Scoring: The Footballguys Playoff Challenge starting lineup allows for two (2) flex positions, also known as the Dual-Flex. The scoring system gives 1 point per reception for RBs & WRs but also gives 1.5 points per reception for TEs, putting extra weight to the TE position. Action scoring is implemented for all TDs: any TD scored by a player is scored as 6 points to that individual player, in addition to any D/ST scoring that may apply. Stat errors will be automatically corrected using Elias Sports Bureau.

Starting Roster

  • 1 QB
  • 2 RBs
  • 2 WRs
  • 1 TE
  • 2 flex players (RB/WR/TE)
  • 1 K
  • 1 D/ST

Scoring System

  • 4 points for passing TDs, 6 points for all other TDs
  • 0.05 point for every 1 yard passing
  • 0.1 point for every 1 yard rushing or receiving
  • 1 point per reception for RBs and WRs
  • 1.5 points per reception for TEs
  • 3 points for every FG of 1 – 30 yards plus 0.1 point for every yard thereafter
  • 1 point for D/ST sack, 2 points for all turnovers
  • 6 points for all D/ST touchdowns
  • 5 points for every safety
  • 12 points for every shutout
  • 8 points for allowing between 1 – 6 points
  • 5 points for allowing between 7 – 10 points

League Software: RTSports.com provides live scoring and live leaderboards for this contest.

RSO Writer’s League Update: Playoffs

Danny Kelly has always been a Jamal Charles fan (who hasn't? Raiders fans, I imagine). Photo by Phillip Macgruder.
Bob Harris and Jamaal Charles? A winning combination. See below. Photo by Phillip Macgruder.

Congratulations to Bob Harris and Mike Clay, who will be playing in the championship game of the Reality Sports Online Writer’s League. Harris’ team, the fourth seed, was hot in the playoffs, averaging 150 points the past two weeks to defeat Jeff Tefertiller’s fifth seed team and then upset the top seeded squad of Jim Day with a 155-120 victory. Harris received 61 points from Jamaal Charles and received additional help from Danny Amendola’s a 25-point afternoon to out-point Day’s squad that didn’t get its typical advantage from Peyton Manning and Jimmy Graham.

Mike Clay, the No.2 seed, defeated Sigmund Bloom in the semifinals 135-100, thanks to a combined 57 points from Nick Foles and Indianapolis’ team defense. Bloom, who earned a combined 74 points from Shane Vereen and LeSean McCoy in Week 14 to defeat season points leader Matt Waldman in the quarterfinals, only saw this running back duo generate 18 points in the semis.

The tale of the tape for Clay and Harris’ teams is fascinating. Clay has tremendous depth at quarterback with Foles and Drew Brees while Harris is getting by with Matt Ryan and Ryan Fitzpatrick. Matt Forte and Danny Woodhead power Clay’s team at RB and Harris sports Charles and Knowshon Moreno. Clay has the advantage with receiver depth, but Harris’ team is capable of huge individual performances.

Good luck to Bob and Mike who will be competing for a $1000 purse that will be donated to the charity of their choice.

To learn more about the league and Reality Sports Online’s excellent concept, check out this page. In case you haven’t thought about it, I am getting paid to give them my endorsement. However, I don’t do this often – and I am contacted monthly with some kind of offer. RSO is something I truly value and I agreed to start a league and keep a monthly diary because I would have paid to start a league with this format if I knew about it before they reached out to me.

I’ll be keeping this monthly diary next year as well, because I believe in the concept. Stay tuned for opportunities to earn a discount for starting a league next year. In fact, to risk doing the wrong thing – Start your own league and get a discount when you use this coupon code: RSP20%OFF.

Reality Sports Online Writers’ League Update

There are a fair share of Jimmy Graham-sized When Jimmy Graham and Peyton Manning are in your lineup, you don't need much more - ask Jim Day.  Photo by Football Schedule.
When Jimmy Graham and Peyton Manning are in your lineup, you don’t need much more – ask Jim Day. Photo by Football Schedule.

Reality Sports Online Writers’ League Update:

November is almost over and it’s time to provide an RSO update on the 14-team league I started with some of the best fantasy writers I know and enjoy competing against. With the playoffs three weeks away, all but one team is still technically alive. Here’s a quick rundown of the state of the league:

Playoff Bound (For Now)

Jim Day is atop the Grinders Division with an 8-3 record and the third in total points scored. Peyton Manning and Jimmy Graham have carried his offense with workmanlike help from Frank Gore and a mid-season boost from Zac Stacy. With the likes of Darren Sproles, Joique Bell, and Mike James on his bench, Day has one of the deepest core of backs in the league. His wide receivers aren’t bad – Eric Decker, Kendall Wright, and Marques Colston, but you’d have to think he’d be trying to deal one of his runners for a wideout – especially when Russell Wilson and E.J. Manuel comprise his QB depth chart. I guess if it ain’t broke, he’s not gonna fix it. Although he could miss the playoffs if he loses two in a row, it’s far more likely he’ll be one of the top three seeds.

Mike Clay and Sigmund Bloom are the Bangers Division co-leaders at 7-5 with Clay currently 12 points ahead of Bloom on the total points tiebreaker (4th and 5th in points scored overall). Clay has Drew Brees leading his starting lineup with Matt Forte, Danny Woodhead, and Andre Ellington (who he has been trying to sell for weeks) as the rotation of three prominent backs in a league that only starts 2 RBs. If Roddy White could return to form for Clay to pair with Victor Cruz, Clay could be even tougher to beat. Bloom’s team has been hot in recent weeks thanks to the return of Rob Gronkowski, Shane Vereen, and Jonathan Stewart. Garrett Graham getting love from Case Keenum hasn’t hurt, either. With LeSean McCoy, Jordy Nelson, and Alshon Jeffery as other strong core players, Bloom will be a difficult team to face in the playoffs as long as he wins out.

If Bob Harris was in the Bangers Division, he’d be tied for first, but he’s a game back of Jim Day with a 7-4 record. The fact that he’s doing it with Matt Ryan, Joe Flacco, and Ryan Fitzpatrick tells you that there’s more ways to win then a stud quarterback. Jamaal Charles, Deangelo Williams, and Andre Brown are helping and Mark Ingram might provide him a boost next season. But I have to say that Harris’ team is a lineup challenge every week with the likes of Steve Smith, Eddie Royal, Danny Amendola, Aaron Dobson, and Stevie Johnson as his top receivers. It goes to show that Harris, who is 8th in points scored, is doing a nice job getting the most of his start/sit decisions.

Jeff Tefertiller is 6-4-1 thanks to no decimal scoring in this league. Despite great overall experience with the site and league type, this is one thing I would recommend RSO to change (or to show me where I turned off this option) with its leagues. Tefertiller is seventh in points scored and doing it with good lineup decisions and strength at receiver (Brandon Marshall, Pierre Garcon, James Jones, DeAndre Hopkins, Terrance Williams, and Jarrett Boykin) while he’s hoping Ray Rice can get on track down the stretch. Robert Griffin is still giving him quality points, but not like he’s hoped. Jeff is one of several teams who could move further up the playoff seeding or be bounced out in just two weeks time.

Jackson, let's hope you're seriously back to "Action" down the stretch. Photo by Karen Blaha.
Jackson, let’s hope you’re seriously back to “Action” down the stretch. Photo by Karen Blaha.

Yours truly is 6-5, but because I’m the top point scorer overall I hold the tiebreaker over Bryan Fontaine for the final playoff spot heading into the weekend. Jay Cutler’s injury hurt, so did Terrelle Pryor’s. However, I still have Carson Palmer and picked up Josh McCown weeks ago as a hedge. Both quarterbacks have served me well, especially Palmer’s 400-yard game last week with Indianpolis ahead. My true strength is wide receiver – Calvin Johnson, DeSean Jackson, Keenan Allen, and Cecil Shorts are usually my starting four. Vernon Davis has been holding it down at tight end and Seattle’s defense has been providing me more points per game than my running backs combined. Speaking of RBs, Ben Tate and Steven Jackson are getting healthier at the right time. If my team continues to score at the same pace, I should be one of the more dangerous lower seed match-ups in the playoffs.

On the Bubble

Riley Cooper is one of many players who make Jason Wood's team a dangerous squad if he gets over the bubble. Photo by Matthew Straubmuller.
Riley Cooper is one of many players who make Jason Wood’s team a dangerous squad if he gets over the bubble. Photo by Matthew Straubmuller.

Fontaine (5-6) is sixth in points scored and has one of the more solid lineups around with a lot of players capable of big weeks: Matt Stafford, DeMarco Murray, Larry Fitzgerald, Dez Bryant, Antonio Gates, and Jordan Cameron. The emergence of Chris Ivory hurt Fontaine mid-season (he has Bilal Powell), but Pierre Thomas is fine depth. Tied with me record-wise in the Grinders Division I wouldn’t be surprised if Fontaine overtakes a couple of teams that are currently projected “in” – I hope mine isn’t one of them.

Rivers McCown is 5-6 in the Bangers division and 13th in points scored. Cam Newton, Adnre Johnson, and Rueben Randle are the corps players on his squad and the rest is a start-sit challenged: Daniel Thomas, Willis McGahee, Lance Moore, Tyler Eifert, Sean McGrath, and Jarius Wright. Without a strong starter at RB and Jermichael Finley, McCown has had tough luck down the stretch.

Jason Wood (5-6) has a dangerous team. Despite his record, he’s second overall in total points and has the likes of Philip Rivers, Adrian Peterson, Reggie Bush, Demaryius Thomas, Eddie Lacy, Riley Cooper, and the Chiefs defense earning big totals for him. The problem for Wood has been up and down weeks against some of the more consistent teams at the wrong times. With the likes of Aaron Rodgers and Rashad Jennings on his bench, Wood has the firepower and depth to be a playoff Cinderella, but getting there is the first priority.

Tim Stafford (4-6-1) has Marshawn Lynch, Wes Welker, and Tony Romo as his solid starters and the rest is a M*A*S*H unit: Randall Cobb, Santonio Holmes, C.J. Spiller, Mike Goodson, Owen Daniels, and Leonard Hankerson to name a few. He still has a shot, but he’ll need huge weeks from his core trio and Spiller and Holmes to get healthy to make some true noise.

To learn more about the league and Reality Sports Online’s excellent concept, check out this page. In case you haven’t thought about it, I am getting paid to give them my endorsement. However, I don’t do this often – and I am contacted monthly with some kind of offer. RSO is something I truly value and I agreed to start a league and keep a monthly diary because I would have paid to start a league with this format if I knew about it before they reached out to me.

I’ll be keeping this monthly diary next year as well, because I still really believe in the concept – so stay tuned for opportunities to earn a discount for starting a league next year. In fact, to risk doing the wrong thing – Start your own league and get a discount when you use this coupon code: RSP20%OFF.

Reads Listens Views 10/5/2013

Listens – Miles Smiles “Jean Pierre”

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Better late than never, right? That’s how I see it when it comes to posting Reads Listens Views. This Saturday version of RLV includes the usual football/non-football web content that I’ve been reading (or saving for when time permits) and some commentary about three things that have nothing to do with football. If you’re new to the blog, I post RLV once a week with the mantra that you might not like everything I post today, but you’ll at least find one thing that made it worthwhile.

I’m also breaking out the fantasy mail bag.

Thank You

There was a time in my life where my work life was so busy I might have had eight hours in a 70-hour week to sit my desk and do focused work. Fast forward 15 years and the situation has flip-flopped. Either way, time whizzes by and my window to interact with readers has narrowed lately. Regardless of how these opportunities will ebb and flow I want to thank you for reading my work at the Rookie Scouting Portfolio, Footballguys, and Football Outsiders every week. If you’re new to my work, check out this blog and the Rookie Scouting Portfolio publication.

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If you want to know the ins and the outs of rookie skill players as early as April 1 with a level of detail that is more comprehensive than anything available then this 1200-page pre-draft publication is a must-buy. The RSP one-part 200-page draft magazine bookmarked for easy reading and other-part 1000-page tome that shows all the work to make the front half insightful: grading checklists for each player according to his position, a glossary that defines the grading system and each thing I score, and all my play-by-play notes on each player. I show my math for even the most diehard, nut-job – and I have plenty of them (they’re my kind of people).

You also get another 150-200 page post-draft document that updates rankings based on player fit with his new team, tiered dynasty rankings, and draft value analysis based on dynasty drafts. This RSP will help you this year, next year, and often times the year after in you dynasty drafts, re-drafts, and the waiver wire. Knowledge is power and you’ll be able to see the signs a little sooner when a player is poised for a breakout.

Past issues (2006-2012) are available for $9.95 apiece and I donate 10 percent of every RSP sale to Darkness To Light, a non-profit whose mission is to prevent and address sexual abuse in communities through training people to be aware of the dynamics, the stats, and how to help victims of this crime. As football fans who send our children to school, sports camps, churches-synagogues-mosques, it’s important that adults understand how to address this issue so they aren’t negligent (legally or morally) due to ignorance. Download the 2013 RSP Today

Wisconsin runner Melvin Gordon is a player I look forward to studying. Here's a nice snapshot of him in action. Photo by Han Shot First.
Wisconsin runner Melvin Gordon is a player I look forward to studying. Here’s a nice snapshot of him in action. Photo by Han Shot First.

Football Reads

Non-Football Reads

Views – Bob Harris Interviewed by the University of Arizona

[youtube=http://youtu.be/Uf6JPArMUoQ]

Five years-old, but still fun to see Bob in action here. You should listen to Bob do his thing weekly at Sirius XM Fantasy Sports.

Commentary: Dexter And Our Government Shutdown.  

A good thing gone way bad. Photo by Chesi Photos CC
A good thing gone way bad. Photo by Chesi Photos CC

If you didn’t know, I was a huge fan of the Showtime series Dexter. Like most Dexter fans, I became disenchanted with the final seasons of the show. However, I hung in there to the end – grousing about its decline every week. I have made the argument that the show’s finale was a good attempt that was doomed to fail because everything that came before it didn’t set the table well enough to give the last episode any sense of emotional credibility.

I believe Dexter went south after Deb caught Dexter in the act of murdering the Doomsday Killer. There shouldn’t have been a season where Deb tries to do some half-ass, homemade intervention that unravels to the extent that she gets sucked into his lifestyle and her life spirals to the gutter.

One of several ways that the show could have continued on a strong path would have been for Dexter to flee: the scene of the crime, Deb, and Miami. Fans would have preferred watching dual plot lines of Dexter creating a new life and identity in another state while Deb wages her own private manhunt for her brother.

Imagine Dexter and his son in a place as opposite from Miami as one can get trying to reinvent himself. Perhaps he encounters the doctor who helped create the Code and he meets a woman and falls in love like he does in the actual seasons towards the end. The difference would be that Dexter and the doctor come to the realization that he really wasn’t as doomed as the doc and his dad Harry presumed.

It would have been fascinating to see Dexter come to the realization that he was more human than he allowed himself to believe, doesn’t feel the compulsion to kill, and changes his life. Then the climax of the show could be Deb finding and confronting Dexter and the fallout from it. I believe this is what the show was trying to do, but the development of this type of plot line was so rushed that no audience could suspend disbelief.

I would have also liked watching Deb arrest Dexter and the final two seasons be the investigations that link (or fail to link) him to the Bay Harbor Butcher murders, the arraignment, and the trial. Introduce the psychologist who taught Harry and Dexter the Code and involve her in the trial or sanity hearings.

Watch Deb unravel as the public pressures from the trial and her role as the captain of homicide mount. What happens to her relationship with her brother? Does she come to understand and try to help him escape? Does she grow to despise him and cut all ties? Does she continue to have this great sense of ambivalence that destroys her and ultimately Dexter as he watches it helpless?

What about the rest of homicide who worked with him? Do they try some crazy under the radar deal where Dexter gets life in prison and uses his Code to assist the city and ultimately the FBI to track down other serial killers?

Whether Dexter is sent to a mental hospital or sentenced to death, seasons with a trial and the aftermath could have been great TV.  Instead, Showtime asked the producers to rush its development process so they could piggyback Ray Donovan to the series at the cost of quality writing.

We need to make elected public service really be public service. This requires greater sacrifice that they're making. Far greater. Photo by AC Flick.
We need to make elected public service really be public service. This requires greater sacrifice that they’re making. Far greater. Photo by AC Flick.

While I’m playing all-powerful, armchair quarterback, let’s look at this government shutdown. The fact is that private healthcare pays huge sums to our legislative body. If we truly want our representatives to be public servants, there needs to be a better way to enforce this commitment to the public and not private enterprise.

Think of the military. The men and women in our armed forces don’t have the same freedoms as the general public while they are in active service. If you ask me, the grand motivation for most Congressmen and women is money. While there is some degree of transparency with the personal finances of our public servants, I think the it would be worth exploring some way of requiring elected officials in the legislative and executive branches to give up basic rights as citizens while serving.

Pay them higher salaries like other developed countries do, give them great benefits when they retire from public service, but also make public service a real sacrifice. Eliminate any outside donation practices and election campaigns. Voting may be a right, but it’s also a privilege – raise the bar and force us to study the issues and watch debates. In 20 years, the public would become as savvy about debates and issues as they are about the pistol and the shotgun in football.

Require all public servants to live in public servant housing, use public servant based transportation, and require them to give up a large enough degree of financial freedom and decision-making in their lives as well as public privacy during this service. It may sound harsh, but if you want people who are truly willing serve our country and not themselves, ask them to make real sacrifices along the lines of our military – and then make the standard higher on a day-to-day level. Look at it this way, they aren’t putting their lives on the line like the military – at least ask them to put their freedoms on hold to ensure they aren’t corrupted by money.

Fantasy Mailbag

Would you ride or die this season with Wilson? Andrew Brown out. Photo by Football Schedule.
Would you ride or die this season with Wilson?  If you chose to ride or die, you don’t bench him versus Philly, do you?  Photo by Football Schedule.

Question I: From Shaun Higgins: I have a trade question in a dynasty league.  The point system is a standard league with 1/2 ppr, we start two RBs.  The following are my RBs:
 

  • Ray Rice
  • Frank Gore
  • Bilal Powell
  • Rashard Mendenhall
  • Shane Vereen
  • Brandon Bolden

I have been offered Bernard Pierce and a 2014 2nd round pick for Bilal Powell and my 2014 3rd round pick.  I am concerned with Baltimore’s offense and Pierce’s output this year.  Also, I’m concerned with how Powell will produce once Ivory is healthy (for however long that might last) and Goodson comes back.  What are your thoughts long-term on both backs?  Do you think this is a good move?

Shaun – I think the Baltimore ground game will get addressed with the help of Eugene Monroe, the tackle the Ravens acquired from Jacksonville this week. However, this helps Rice far more than Pierce, because the Ravens are committing more to Rice than they are his backup. Whether it’s in Baltimore or elsewhere, I think Pierce has a chance to develop into a fantasy RB2 in 2-3 years. Powell’s time to demonstrate he’s RB2-caliber for the next 2-3 years is now. Neither player possesses jackpot, long-term RB1 upside. I think Powell is the more versatile player and Pierce is the more power runner.

However for you, this deal comes down to two factors:

A) Is your team strong at other positions and you’re contending now? If so, Powell is better for you this year.

B) Is your team struggling and unlikely to contend this year or next? If so, Pierce gives you continuity with Rice and you gain a second-round pick, which could provide you more RB depth.

Question II: From Nathan Smith – Should I start Roddy White, Giovani Bernard, or Kenbrell Thompkins over David Wilson this week as one of two flexes in a league with this lineup? 

QB Michael Vick, Phi QB @NYG Sun 1:00

4

91.5

22.9

14.4

24

30th

53.4

100.0

+0

RB Ray Rice, Bal RB @Mia Sun 1:00

39

32.8

8.2

2.3

8.2

30th

87.0

100.0

+0

RB Trent Richardson, Ind RB Sea Sun 1:00

19

53.6

13.4

15.7

17.9

9th

100.0

100.0

+0

RB/WR David Wilson, NYG RB Phi Sun 1:00

50

26

6.5

12.9

11.7

26th

67.0

97.4

-0.6

WR A.J. Green, Cin WR NE Sun 1:00

10

79.6

19.9

13.6

19

6th

100.0

100.0

+0

WR Josh Gordon, Cle WR Buf W 37-24

41

47.3

11.8

12

17.1

31st

35.8

98.7

+2.6

WR/TE Brandon Marshall, Chi WR  Q NO Sun 1:00

8

81

20.3

18.3

19.5

3rd

96.9

100.0

+0

TE Jordan Cameron, Cle TE Buf W 37-24

2

100.8

25.2

26.3

21.2

7th

83.8

96.9

+6.4

D/ST Falcons D/ST D/ST NYJ Mon 8:30

26

17.1

4.3

-1.3

8.8

29th

8.2

13.4

+3

K Nick Novak, SD K @Oak Sun 11:35

5

44.1

11.0

13.9

9.9

14th

12.3

14.9

+7.6

BENCH

WK 5

2013 SEASON

WEEK 5

SLOT PLAYER, TEAM POS ACTION OPP STATUS ET

PRK

PTS

AVG

LAST

PROJ

OPRK

%ST

%OWN

+/-

Bench Doug Martin, TB RB

** BYE **

13

62.9

15.7

12.2

66.0

100.0

+0

Bench Giovani Bernard, Cin RB NE Sun 1:00

16

61.6

15.4

15.2

17.4

13th

63.4

100.0

+0

Bench Andrew Luck, Ind QB Sea Sun 1:00

7

85.6

21.4

20.5

14.2

4th

38.2

100.0

+0

Bench Kenbrell Thompkins, NE WR  Q @Cin Sun 1:00

25

63.1

15.8

26.3

13.2

16th

33.7

82.8

+28.6

Bench DeAndre Hopkins, Hou WR @SF

I thought White looked good from what I watched. He was officially targeted 9 times, but I would say that about half of those should not be counted as targets.  Passes overthrown by a lot, or in the dirt.  He had about 5 or 6 catchable balls maybe and he did well. 

So I traded for him. I was offered Roddy for Julius Thomas and since I am also a Cameron owner, I took the offer.  Wondering what you think about the fact that Tennessee destroyed the Jets last week in the passing game, and if you think ATL can do the same at home.  I think Roddy is due for a game.

Nathan, I thought White looked better, but not good. He still lacks the burst and strength/stability in the ankle to play his true game, which is about precise timing routes in tight coverage. Teams are still playing off White and the Falcons are still jerry-rigging its offense to use him. Until White can practice fully during the week leading to a game, I’d bench him. In fact, White suffered a setback in that game, so I’d avoid him this week. Thompkins is gaining ground, but he’ll be facing a pretty good set of cornerbacks. I think Bernard offers the most PPR upside, but he and Thompkins are pretty even.

However, I’m not sure I’d bench Wilson against the Eagles defense. If you’re going to stay patient with Wilson, this is the week to show it and use him. The Giants cut Da’Rell Scott and Brandon Jacobs hasn’t looked as good as Wilson. I’d go upside with your lineup and continue to start Wilson.

Question III:  How hard would you be looking to upgrade from Vick in 14 team redraft?

Rodgers owner is 0-4 with all kinds of holes.  I have a bench with DeAngelo, Powell,  Mathews, Mike Williams and Blackmon to try to pepper into a 2 for 1 or 3 for 1 deal.

If you can ply Rodgers from an owner with the combo of Vick and 1-2 of those players that you’re not using, do it. 

Listens –  A Night in Tunisia

[youtube=http://youtu.be/baMsQeQpUvw]

The Gut Check No.279 – Assessing the Quarter Pole of the Fantasy Season

Would you ride or die this season with Wilson? Andrew Brown out. Photo by Football Schedule.
Would you ride or die this season with Wilson? Andrew Brown out. Photo by Football Schedule.

Leave at the curb? Wait a few more miles? Ride or die? Which call should you make with these worrisome players? Matt Waldman scouts the fantasy football landscape at the season’s quarter pole.

Stranded With Bramel: A true Story

This week’s Gut Check begins with a true story (except for one name change – and it’s not the car) that may not seem like it has anything to do with fantasy football, but I promise it does. Stay with me here. It will all be clear soon enough.

Whether it’s a new destination or an old familiar place, there’s nothing more fun than a road trip with friends. Even a familiar journey can present the unexpected. Sometimes these unforeseen events will force its traveler’s to make difficult choices. Take this year’s Senior Bowl trip with Jene Bramel.

Last January was the good doctor’s second trip to Mobile, Alabama to cover the all-star game’s practices with me and Cecil Lammey for the New York Times, the Rookie Scouting Portfolio, and Lammey’s ESPN affiliate. Usually, I pick up everyone at the Atlanta airport and I drive the team to Mobile. Lammey had to make other plans this year so it was Jene and I making the drive.

I’ve been chauffeuring the crew to Mobile and around town for the past five years. Despite odd stories like late-night scavenger hunts for reliable wireless that once led us to an empty Hooter’s parking lot after hours just to file those New York Times practice reports, it has always been an easy gig to be the driver. Even so I had the feeling I should consider renting an SUV last year.

The reason is that I bought a used Prius six months earlier. It works great around town and I even drove it to Memphis without issue on a summer trip with Alicia. However, it’s the Tashard Choice of cars: It’s small, it lacks acceleration, and no one’s really comfortable with the idea of having it carry the offense.

My particular Prius also has two quirks. One is that it has a name. Alicia likes to name machines. I think it’s a backwoods way of respecting the tools you’re fortunate to acquire. We call him Pete.

Pete’s other quirk is his gas gauge. While it’s cool that he gets me 46-50 miles to the gallon on a routine basis, Pete’s gauge doesn’t make a gradual drop from full to empty as you drive him. Instead, Pete will act like he still has a full tank for at least 500 miles. Then with 3-5 miles of gas left in the tank, he drops the gauge to one square above empty.

Imagine Tashard Choice getting 20 touches, looking like he’s capable of 25 more, and at touch number 22 he has a narcoleptic episode just as the ball arrives during the exchange on a toss sweep. While I knew Pete’s gauge wasn’t reliable, I track the odometer well enough to hit the gas station with at least 25-30 miles to spare. But on this Sunday afternoon in the middle of Alabama countryside, Pete conked out on Bamel and me two miles from the nearest exit.

Lot’s of decisions to make at this point: Call USAA? Call a wrecker? Walk to the exit? Go together?

My decision? Leave the northern guy in the deep south on the side of the road (sorry, Jen) to watch the car while I take off running for the exit. A quarter-mile down the road, a car with a trailer pulls to the shoulder waiting for me, windows open, blaring Styx’s “Renegade”.

Countryside. Car out of gas. Stranger offering ride in vehicle blaring song about impending death. It’s a cliche moment of a horror flick.

“I saw your car by the side of the road do you need a ride?” shouts the man over the music. He’s no more than five years older than I am, fit, weekend stubble, looks a little nervous as he’s also sizing me up. Good sign. Another good sign? A sudden wave of panic registers across his face when he realizes that not only is the radio still on, but he’s about to offer a ride to a stranger with Hangman coming down from the gallows and I don’t have very long blasting from his speakers.

“Yep. Ran out of gas. I just need to get to the next exit. What’s your name?” I ask as he tells me his name is Rick. My brain is saying this isn’t a good idea, but my gut is telling me everything’s cool. Still my brain needs a hedge. “Yeah, we’re on assignment with the New York Times for the Senior Bowl in Mobile. They’re expecting us to meet the rest of the team and file a report tonight. What do you do, Rick?”

Rick’s face softens a bit and he looks more relaxed. Meanwhile my cell phone is buzzing in my pocket.

“The Senior Bowl, huh? Good deal. I’m an ER nurse,” Rick says, explaining that it’s his day off and he’s getting ready to do some work on the house. “Was just coming back from Lowe’s when I spotted your car and your friend on the side of the road.”

I get in the car and five minutes later we’re at the only gas station in a 10-15 mile radius and they don’t have a gas canister. I buy two large jugs of distilled water, empty them in front of the gas pump, fill them with fuel in front of the state trooper who does nothing, and we head back for the car. However, we have to drive another three miles past the car because his trailer won’t navigate the median on a U-Turn.

This of course elicits another round of cell phone buzzing as we pass Bramel sitting in the sun with his iPad in the grass as he watches us pass him. We make it to Pete. I introduce the doc to the nurse, they talk shop as I fill the car and make sure it starts, we thank Rick, and we’re on our way.

In the car and on our way, Bramel and I have a few realizations. First, I’m an idiot. Not only do I leave Bramel stranded roadside without a key to the car when we have a chance to call USAA and perhaps have to wait a half-hour longer for a ride to the gas station, but I risk never being seen again after entering a car that’s too far away for Bramel to make out.

Second, I at least had some shred of common sense to invoke our affiliation with the world’s most recognized newspaper so our driver is on notice that we’ll be missed if we go missing. Third, I luck out that the driver is a good guy; an ER nurse who was equally unsure about offering a ride to a 40-something dude with a five days of scruff and sporting sunglasses and a Beast Mode t-shirt.

What does this have to do with worrisome players? First, most of you have at least one player making you feel like an idiot after the first three weeks of the season. Second, you at least have some shred of common sense or intuition about how to handle it. Third, you lucked out that I’m not playing Renegade as I write this article.

Fourth, you need to figure out if each player in this week’s Gut Check is someone you should leave at the curb, hang in there for a few more miles, or decide you’re going to ride or die with them. I’m stating my case for each but remember I’m the same guy ran out of gas in a Prius, left Jene Bramel stranded, didn’t answer my cell phone, and took a ride from a stranger.

Of course, I’m here to tell you about it which should tell you I’m either good or I’m lucky. At this point, does it matter which one it is? I didn’t think so. Let’s get started.

Leave At the Curb: Too Risky

RB Stevan RidleyIt’s not the 3.4 yards per carry or the ball security issues that have me worried about Ridley. He’s still a tough runner with burst. It’s the one reception for eight yards in three games versus Brandon Bolden‘s five catches in one week. The Patriots don’t use him in the passing game. Bolden’s 49 yards on 5 receptions is just 2 yards and 1 reception fewer than Ridley’s 2012 receiving total.

Granted, Ridley was the No.10 fantasy runner last year with that paltry total. However, Bolden ate into Ridley’s time when he was healthy last year and Vereen also battled health issues.

Read the rest at Footballguys.com