Posts tagged fantasy football

The One Trade Advice Article You Need to Read

0 Comments read Matt Waldman
There are a fair share of Jimmy Graham-sized targets in this draft, but as I finish up my rankings, only a few have a ceiling that is even in the neighborhood of the Saint. Photo by Football Schedule.
The art of the deal is a huge part of fantasy football that is not explored in depth by writers. I’m tackling in this week’s Gut Check at Footballguys. Here’s a taste. Photo by Football Schedule.

I have written close to 500 articles about fantasy football. This is the one I’m most confident will make you a better fantasy owner. It might be the best thing I’ve learned as a fantasy owner in years. Ironically, the person who provided me the majority of this knowledge has no experience playing fantasy football. 

In nearly 20 years of writing about this hobby, I’ve never read a good article that discusses how to become better at making trades. I’m sure there are some, but not in the circles I’ve traveled as a fantasy writer (and it’s a pretty broad circle). I broached the topic with Sigmund Bloom this afternoon when he called me to share his rant against trading Michael Vick.

Bloom agreed he hasn’t seen any quality articles about the strategies behind making deals. He proposed we collaborate one night on the subject. A trained lawyer, Bloom has some good negotiation skills. I also have some chops of my own as a former salesman (when I actually try). However, the best negotiator I know is my wife, Alicia.

Those of you who read me regularly know by now that when I invoke my wife’s name in writing 99 percent of the time it is for comic relief. Today is that one percent exception. Alicia is a corporate buyer. With millions of dollars of spend under her responsibility, she negotiates for a living with Fortune 100 companies. Her negotiation style is also regarded as rare in the field because she’s adept at several styles rather than relying on just one.

Some of my best friends have benefited from her negotiation advice in recent years. It inspired me to attempt to write this article this summer, but I just didn’t have enough perspective to translate her knowledge to fantasy football. I wasn’t asking her the right questions. The combination of Bloom’s initial topic, my wife’s knowledge, and some information I acquired just a few days ago while covering a non-football story at my day job helped me figure out the right questions to ask.

I haven’t been a good trade negotiator in fantasy football. Some who got the worse end of deals with me might disagree, but they’re looking at the art of the deal the wrong way.

I’m lucky when I get time to assess my collective free agent pools for 30 minutes a week. I’m in too many leagues and I’m likely to be giving notice in half of them this spring. I want to have time to analyze my league’s market and negotiate on behalf of my teams.

This year I’ve already accepted and turned down two deals I shouldn’t have in dynasty leagues. The reason is I never had a clear understanding of good negotiation tactics and what is required to cultivate them.

Until now.

Part I: Adopt A Negotiator’s Mindset

There are three fundamental things you have to internalize as a fantasy owner if you want to become good at the art of the deal:

1. You need to know the spectrum of players you want and the spectrum of players you’re willing to give away.

2. You need to have real commitment to your limits and be willing to lose.

3. You need to evaluate your skills at trade negotiation more by the process and less by the end result.   

If you don’t approach negotiations with these three steps, you are are doing no better than searching for the next bandage to cover the wound in need of surgery. The best way to begin is to take these three steps and work backwards.

Be Process Oriented More Than Results-Oriented And The Results Will Come

Becoming a good negotiator is a process. You have to be mindful of the steps and begin looking at the deal with perspective. Diplomats and business people call it vision; con artists call it the long con. It’s the same skill applied in different spheres. 

Good negotiators understand that they will win and lose deals, but one of the best characteristics of a winning negotiator is that the person is easy to work with. In fantasy football this means you have to engage people and keep them interested in working with you. It’s a quality you have to develop with every potential deal. Even if a trade doesn’t come to fruition or a deal backfires for you or your trade partner, the way you conducted the negotiations will make that person return to you for future deals. 

For the rest, subscribe to Footballguys.com

This is ultimately what you want.

RSO Writers’ League Diary Preseason Week 3

0 Comments read Matt Waldman
RSO founder Matt Papson acquired Antonio Brown as a part of a rebuilding plan. Photo by bmward_2000.
RSO founder Matt Papson acquired Antonio Brown as a part of a rebuilding plan. Photo by bmward_2000.

Every month I’ll be writing something about the start-up keeper-contract-salary-auction league I’m running at Reality Sports Online. You can read more about RSO’s excellent league format here. And if you want to start a league with your friends or join a league as an individual, you can earn a 20 percent discount when you use the promo code RSP20%OFF. 

in case you missed it, I recruited some of my favorite competitors from the fantasy football industry to participate:

  1. Jeff Tefertiller – Footballguys
  2. Ryan McDowell – Dynasty League Football
  3. Sigmund Bloom – Footballguys
  4. Mike MacGregor – FFToday
  5. Bryan Fontaine – Pro Football Focus
  6. Tim Stafford – Dynasty League Football
  7. Matt Papson- Reality Sports Online
  8. Matt Waldman – Footballguys/RSP/Football Outsiders
  9. Jason Wood – Footballguys
  10. Mike Clay – Pro Football Focus/NBC
  11. Bob Harris and Mike Dempsey – Football Diehards/Sirius XM
  12. Rivers McCown – Football Outsiders
  13. Jim Day – Fantasy Taz
  14. Lance Zierlein – Sideline View

You can’t get much better when it comes to the combined fantasy football savvy of this crew. Since the draft ended in late May there have been 56 waiver wire transactions and 33 players traded to other in the past 93 days. That’s almost a player changing hands per day. RSO founder Matt Papson is behind 19 of these trades after he inherited a team after the draft with a huge cap surplus. Here’s who he’s traded and acquired during this time:

Dealt

  • 3rd Round Pick
  • Maurice Jones-Drew
  • Eddie Royal
  • Zach Ertz
  • Dennis Pitta
  • Plaxico Burress
  • Ryan Fitzpatrick
  • Robert Meachem
  • Knowshon Moreno
  • Mark Sanchez

These are players that were acquired in the auction by the former owner who had to leave early due to unforseen circumstances and he didn’t leave much of a draft list. The result was a team with a lot of D-level fantasy performers but a ton of cap room to use.

Naturally, the former Eagles employee Papson has Michael Vick as his starter in the Reality Sports Online Writer's League. Photo by Matthew Straubmuller.
Naturally, the former Eagles employee Papson has Michael Vick as his starter in the Reality Sports Online Writer’s League. Photo by Matthew Straubmuller.

 

Papson, a former cap expert with the Philadelphia Eagles, jumped at the opportunity to take over this team because he realized how much financial leeway he had to rebuild the team by giving cap relief to the rest of the league in return for more promising long-term options.  You’ll see what I mean with the acquisitions below:

  • Alex Smith
  • Vick Ballard
  • Antonio Brown
  • Jonathan Baldwin
  • Rashard Mendenhall
  • Chad Henne
  • Michael Crabtree
  • Darrius Heyward-Bey
  • Donald Brown
  • Aaron Hernandez

Because Papson had so much cap room, he could absorb salaries of less-inspired options like Hernandez, Henne,  Brown, and Baldwin, while acquiring strong starters like Antonio Brown and Crabtree and serviceable depth like Smith, Mendenhall, Ballard, and Heyward-Bey.

His team now looks a lot better than it did after the draft:

  • QBs (start 1): Michael Vick, Alex Smith, and Chad Henne
  • RBs (start 2): Rashard Mendenhall, Ryan Mathews, Jonathan Dwyer Christine Michael, Vick Ballard, Peyton Hillis, Delone Carter, Donald Brown, and James Starks
  • WRs (start 3-4): Antonio Brown, Kenny Britt,  Darrius Heyward-Bey, Aaron Mellette, Michael Crabtree, Jason Avant, Harry Douglas, Michael Jenkins, Chris Harper, Eric Rogers, and Jonathan Baldwin
  • TEs (start 1-2): Kyle Rudolph, Anthony Fasano, Delanie Walker, and Michael Hoomanawanui
  • DST: New England
  • PK: David Akers

The team doesn’t have a great outlook this year unless he has 2-3 strong surprises at running back  and at least one overachiever at receiver. However, Papson is in a much better position to turn this team into a much better squad in 2014 due to his cap room of $28 million.

TEAM 2013 2013 ROOM 2014 2015 2016
SALARY SALARY SALARY SALARY
Matt Waldman $120,343,604 $2,656,396 $77,840,327 $17,472,051 $5,180,000
Sigmund Bloom $114,401,854 $8,598,146 $76,924,424 $66,591,995 $22,960,000
Bob Harris $92,170,194 $30,829,806 $54,648,827 $17,112,459 $0
Tim Stafford $116,270,444 $6,729,556 $94,096,434 $62,852,424 $20,580,000
Bryan Fontaine $111,816,814 $11,183,186 $72,813,210 $30,729,608 $1,960,000
Matt Papson $94,988,621 $28,011,379 $64,724,175 $19,619,729 $0
Jim Day $122,217,721 $782,279 $84,071,728 $61,630,735 $17,780,000
Jeff Tefertiller $123,000,227 ($227) $119,408,970 $71,227,712 $16,800,000
Jason Wood $121,988,128 $1,011,872 $94,011,311 $48,419,492 $19,740,000
Rivers McCown $115,153,657 $7,846,343 $78,761,128 $61,638,599 $15,820,000
Mike MacGregor $111,856,984 $11,143,016 $88,618,392 $63,934,800 $27,160,000
Lance Zierlein $112,661,484 $10,338,516 $71,608,178 $50,644,871 $7,420,000
Ryan McDowell $106,429,757 $16,570,243 $73,579,640 $61,004,523 $28,980,000
Mike Clay $121,503,737 $1,496,263 $46,694,512 $14,700,286 $3,640,000

The cap room over the next three years is likely the most fascinating aspect of this league. Will owners like Papson and Bob Harris benefit from the space as injuries and disappointing performances teams throughout the league? Can they acquire the right players that this money will afford them? All great questions as we move forward.

My Team

I’ve had 10 waiver wire transactions since May and most are players I’ve been monitoring during camp. I’m hoping that some of them show enough long-term promise for me to tag at year’s end or they surprise this year:

  • Zach Sudfeld – until the Patriots tight end fumbled the ball with the one’s on Thursday night, he has been excellent. I still think he earns playing time and might surprise with starter production in fantasy leagues at least until Rob Gronkowski returns. He’s fine depth behind my starter Vernon Davis if Dwayne Allen doesn’t look good after rehabbing a foot injury.
  • C.J. Anderson – This sounds crazy, but if he didn’t get hurt he might have been this year’s Alfred Morris. A big back with a low center of gravity, Anderson looked more impressive breaking tackles and avoiding penetration than any back on the Broncos depth chart and was just earning second-team reps when he went down. I think the Broncos will keep him and give him a shot to work his way up the depth chart in the second half of the season. I was impressed with Anderson at Cal, but didn’t think he’d be drafted because he wasn’t the starter at Cal. For some additional perspective, neither was Willie Parker at UNC, Priest Holmes at Texas, William Andrews at Auburn (played FB for Joe Cribbs), or Terrell Davis at Georgia.
  • Russell Shephard – I don’t think he’ll do much this year, but I do think he flashed enough as a rookie with little experience at the position that he could develop at a fast rate and earn a bigger shot by next year. Former Rice quarterback Bert Emanuel wasn’t a bad receiver in Atlanta, perhaps Shephard can follow in those footsteps.
  • Spencer Ware – You know I love me some Spencer Ware. Talent often has a funny way of rising to prominence – especially physical players like Ware.
  • Shaun Draughn – I’m not impressed with Knile Davis at all thus far. While Draughn hasn’t played as well as he did last year, I’d be surprised if he’s not part of the backfield picture and a prominent part if Jamal Charles can’t finish the year.
  • Chad Spann – Not much has been said about Spann after his first week in Jets camp. It’s hard to tell if he’ll earn a role, but I really haven’t seen enough of him in preseason to make a call on him.
  • Austin Collie – A terrific receiver when healthy, but I don’t know about the fit in San Francisco and there’s enough rust that he might need a team willing to be patient with him and that’s about has common as purple grizzly bears.
  • Julius Thomas – He continues to look good and might force his way into the Broncos’ lineup with a quarterback who isn’t shy about targeting open players regardless of their draft round, contract, or level of stardom.

Although he may seem like a waiver wire gem, I actually acquired Kenbrell Thompkins in the start-up auction. It’s early, but so far he has proven to be one of my more astute moves now he’s close to earning a starting role in New England. Truth be told, this is the type of move that normally doesn’t work out for me, but I just might have picked the right long shot this year.

Here’s my depth chart heading into the regular season:

  • QBs (start 1): Jay Cutler, Carson Palmer, and Sean Renfree
  • RBs (start 2): Steven Jackson, Arian Foster, Ben Tate, Ryan Williams, Shaun Draughn, Spencer Ware, Chad Spann, and C.J. Anderson
  • WRs (start 3-4): Calvin Johnson, DeSean Jackson, Cecil Shorts, Kenbrell Thompkins, Keenan Allen, Travis Benjamin, Marvin Jones, Marquess Wilson, Austin Collie, Russell Shephard, and Da’Rick Rogers
  • TEs (start 1-2): Vernon Davis, Dwayne Allen, Zach Sudfeld, and Luke Willson
  • DST: Seattle
  • PK: Sebastian Janikowski

Can’t say I love my team right now. Running back needs to stay healthy and I’m concerned about my lack of depth. I also have concerns about my kicker unless Terrelle Pryor can get into the lineup and at least scramble his way into field goal position enough times in games for respectable production. I think my receivers can carry me some weeks if my running backs can stay healthy and play like strong RB2s every week.

Until next month . . .

Ready to try a start-up keeper-contract-salary-auction league experience that’s easy to play and even easier to run? Go to Reality Sports Online and either start a league with your friends or join a league as an individual. You can earn a 20 percent discount when you use the promo code RSP20%OFF. 

 

2013 Fantasy Soundtracks

0 Comments read Walk on the Wild Side
Team Riddle selects Rob Gronkowski to lead off his draft. Photo by JDN.
Lamont Sanford to Sinead O’Connor? Keep reading… Photo by JDN.

Intro

Bloom and I not only grew up as the original members of the MTV Generation, but we were also the first audience of the summer movie blockbuster. From an early age it has been ingrained in us that music is a part of the story line of our lives. If you’re one of us who remembers things like Poison Arrow, Fish Heads, Headbanger’s Ball, and Martha’s Muffin, then you also remember making mixed tapes for your friends – especially girlfriends.

I was a musician in a previous life. In college I used to watch Raiders’ games with my roommate’s synthesizer at the edge of the couch so I could play sound effects of bombs dropping whenever James Jett went deep:

[youtube=http://youtu.be/y6EU_l06GwM]

Bloom lived a soundtrack as a Phishhead. Put the two of us together and it’s only a matter of time before we have to inject music into the football conversation. It only made sense that our 2013 season preview would be a soundtrack and mixed tape set to YouTube videos.

However, Einstein is the only video you’re going to see on this post due to account rights with YouTube that prevent us from embedding music here. Still, we’re providing links to each song and they will open in a separate window so you can have a soundtrack as you read our takes on players and their outlook for the year. This is us blowing off steam with two mixed tapes.

Album I, Side A: “It’s always Tease, Tease, Tease” [The Clash]

Should I stay or should I go now? . . . Should I stay or should I go now? . . . If I go there will be trouble . . . An if I stay it will be double . . . Come on and let me know . . . Should I cool it or should I blow?

Who better than the Clash to sum up the angst fantasy owners feel about so many players? They draw us in with talent so seductive and intoxicating that we stick around even after getting burned. Yet even as the logic of giving them another try wears thin, the promise of “what could be” is almost too great to resist – even when you know better.

It seems you always find yourself staring at their name on draft day and wishing you knew what to do. Bloom and I would love to intervene, but we’re too busy exorcising our own player-demons or giving it one more chance with the hope we’re not crying in our beer in December.

(Bloom) Track 1: QB Josh Freeman – My Minds Got a Mind Of Its Own  [phish]

Maybe it’s his mechanics. Maybe it’s that he was in a new system. Maybe it’s his unwillingness to rely on his legs as often as he did earlier in his career. Or, maybe Josh Freeman is just as baffled by his inconsistent play as we are. His mind prompts him to make throws that are incomprehensible. Last year, he looked like a QB1 until he cratered with eight interceptions in the all-important weeks 15 and 16. Think twice before you add Freeman this year.

(Waldman) Track 2: RB Maurice Jones-Drew –  We Had Joy, We had Fun . . .  [terry Jacks]

He was a huge reason I won my first experts’ league. Using a Studs and Duds strategy, winning Jones-Drew’s services for a mere $1 was the bargain of all bargains. Watching him duel with Chris Johnson a few years ago was one of the most fun showcases of two running backs in a game that I have ever seen. The Jaguars’ little teapot has been an RB1 for most of his seven-year career and a cornerstone for many fantasy champions. Despite averaging at least 4.7 yards per carry the past two seasons, the familiar tug to get on board the S.S. Jones-Drew is there but my feet won’t leave the dock – even at a bargain price as the 23rd pick/RB15.

But he has taken a pounding and without a proven quarterback to keep defenses from crowding the line of scrimmage and daring the Jaguars to throw, I’d rather be a year too early than a year too late. Terry Jacks says it best: “Good-bye my friend it’s hard to die when all the birds are singing in the sky . . . but the hills that we climbed were just seasons out of time.”

(Bloom) Track 3: RB Darren McFadden – Won’t Get Fooled Again [The who]

Keep your “contract year” and “zone blocking scheme was holding him back” arguments. Oakland’s offense looks like a dumpster-fire without left tackle Jared Veldheer for a good part of the season. Matt Flynn is a backup quarterback and Terrelle Pryor isn’t even a backup-quality passer. Even if McFadden had a spotless durability record, it would be tough to like him this year.

(Waldman) Track 4: RB Ryan Mathews – Cold Shot [Stevie Ray Vaughan]

Mathews isn’t just singing this song to fantasy owners; he’s belting the lyrics to a standing room only audience in his locker room. The Fresno State runner is a borderline rare talent. If you’ve truly seen Mathews at his best then you know what I mean: exploits small creases, makes adroit cuts that kill defenders’ angles, a third gear to outrun corners, and rare balance against hits from first-level defenders.  It’s one thing to lower the pads and truck a defender straight-on; it’s a completely different story when a defensive lineman with a good angle and plenty of steam gets his pads into the side of a running back’s thigh and slides off like butter on a hot skillet tilted sideways.

I saw Mathews do this enough times that I thought I was in this fantasy football relationship for the long haul. But the rare skills couched in boneheaded acts of immaturity has reached the point that I can’t make any more excuses. It doesn’t help that Danny Woodhead (DANNY WOODHEAD?!!!) is the player the Chargers are relying on as much as Mathews. It shows just how far this once-promising fantasy situation has gone down the tubes.

Mathews says his NFL career to this point as merely been “average” and while I like the attempt at honesty, the fact that he can’t bring himself to say his career has been below average to his first-round expectations tells me that he’s still in denial about not only what he has done, but he truly doesn’t realize how good he can be. If he doesn’t believe in himself, then how can I?

I still want to believe because I see glimpses every week he plays. But by game’s end, watching him is a cold shot.

(Bloom) Mathews Alternate take:  It Ain’t No Use [Stevie Wonder]

Mathews may be looking good in camp and the preseason, but it ain’t no use. I’m done – at least while he’s running behind maybe the worst offensive line in the league. The new regime doesn’t have the draft pick or emotional investment in Mathews and you shouldn’t, either. I’m not saying that Mathews won’t have some big plays and games, but he’ll also frustrate with injuries and lost games as the Chargers struggle.

Read the rest at Footballguys

The Gut Check No.272 – Upside Down Strategy Update

0 Comments read Matt Waldman
Lacy is prime candidate for Upside Down drafts. Photo by Mike Pettigano.
Lacy is a prime candidate for Upside Down drafts. Photo by Mike Pettigano.

The Upside Down Strategy is not my own; it’s simply one of several methods I write about. Still, many of my readers – including two FPPC winners – have credited it for helping them build exceptional rosters in a high-stakes format and even a counter-terrorism expert has told me the basic philosophy that “once something becomes conventional, it’s no longer safe,” is something he relates to with his investigative work as well as his new-found success with fantasy teams. 

At the day job, I interviewed an exec running one of the bigger number-crunching outfits on Madison Avenue. Although his firm didn’t do the work, he heads up a team with the type of skill sets that helped a company like Target eerily predict pregnancy based on shopping habits. We talked about analytics – even touching on the stats movement in football.

This man has extensive training with statistical modeling, but what he told me is that his fellow “quants” often fail to generate insights that make a difference in their respective businesses because of the way they use data. His criticism is that the quants use a lot of binary calculations and the results validate safe decision-making.

Decision-making too safe for running a business where the mission is to win customers’ eyeballs, hearts, and wallets with ad campaigns.

He was speaking my language when he elaborated that playing it safe rarely creates exceptional results. There’s only one winner in fantasy football, but I know owners – whether they know it or not – who draft like their primary goal is to make the playoffs. In fact, I’d argue most of us do.

The primary motivation is to build a team good enough to earn a playoff spot. Then as the playoffs get closer, focus on refining that roster to contend for a championship. I think the underlying thought is to make the playoffs so you don’t look like a bad fantasy football player.

Football fans who play fantasy football absorb the same mentality that NFL teams have: you’re great if you win a championship; you’re very good if you go to the championship; you’re good if you make the playoffs; and you’re not good if you miss the playoffs.

It doesn’t help that most fantasy leagues award money for making the playoffs or scoring the most points. This is an incentive to be good, but not great; play it safe, but don’t go for greatness; and win, but only if you don’t have to risk losing big.

It’s not a popular line of thought, but there’s truth in those words.

In a year where the pervading thought is to take running backs early, acquire a stud tight end, and wait on quarterbacks and wide receivers, the radical approach is to acquire the best non-runners for your starting lineup and use the middle and late rounds to acquire a huge block of runners for your roster. The fundamental reason for this approach’s efficacy is the short career span, high rate of injury, and fairly high turnover within the top-12 and top-24 rankings of running backs from one year to the next. I call this the Upside Down Draft Strategy. You can find details here.

Most of you already get the gist of this strategy. You’re here to find out which middle and late-round runners I’m touting for your drafts this month. I’m writing three articles to profile these backs within the context of walking you through multiple Upside Down Draft plans – the first one at the early turn (1st overall pick); the second with a middle pick (6th spot); and the final strategy at the turn (12th spot) – so you can see how it all fits together.

I think this strategy is best-suited for the following league formats:

  • PPR leagues with lineups of 1QB/2RBs/3WR/1TE.
  • PPR leagues with lineups as above, but with a flex at RB, WR, or TE.
  • Premium PPR leagues with 1.5 points for TE and a flex at RB, WR, or TE.
  • Non-PPR leagues with 1QB/2RB/4WR/1TE and a flex at RB, WR, or TE.

The example below is for a 12-team league.  

For the rest log into Footballguys.com.

If you aren’t a Footballguys subscriber, you’re missing one of the best-quality fantasy sites in the business. Let me put it to you this way: Last year, I had the top preseason rankings for QBs and No. 8 overall for WRs among over 100 fantasy writers, but that’s just par for the course compared to the rest of our staff. Check out the Multi-Year Scores and you’ll see the likes of David Dodds and Bob Henry at the top; Sigmund Bloom, Jason Wood, and Jeff Hasely aren’t far behind; and there’s also Jeff Tefertiller and Mark Wimer.

We’re packed with quality staffers who work as a great team to produce content like these Training Camp Reports.  Combine this content with the Magazine Draft Apps (iPhone and Android), and affiliations with FanDuel, and you’ll love what Footballguys can do for you. 

Not sure? Get our free daily email updates and you will be. 

Reads Listens Views 8/9/2013

0 Comments read Reads Listens Views
If you think of me when you see these three players - among others - you don't need me to say any more. If you don't, perhaps its time to starting downloading the RSP publication every April 1.
If you think of me when you see these three players – among others – you don’t need me to say any more. If you don’t, perhaps its time to starting downloading the RSP publication every April 1.

If you’re new to the Rookie Scouting Portfolio Blog, Friday posts are titled “Reads Listens Views” and in addition today’s commentary on 10 third and fourth-year players I’m monitoring in training camp, I’m featuring links to content from colleagues, non-football stories, photos, videos, lectures, and music that interest me. You may not like everything you see here, but you will like at least one thing. It’s also my opportunity to thank you for visiting and convince you to download the Rookie Scouting Portfolio publication.

Listens – RIP George Duke (Pianist/Composer/Producer)

[youtube=http://youtu.be/CT2ZBoWtNes]

Thanks

This thing we got going here is a mutual deal. Thank you for following my blog, my tweets, reading my work at Footballguys and Football Outsiders, and buying the Rookie Scouting Portfolio. In return I do my best to give you stuff to read that helps you become a more informed football fan, makes you see something with a new perspective, or at least makes you laugh. If you haven’t bought the Rookie Scouting Portfolio before you need to know that according to my readers, I’m the rare bird who is giving you something that far exceeds its cost to you.

The depth of what I write about any subject here is the tip of the iceberg for the two publications (pre-draft and post-draft) that you get for just $19.95:

  • Over 1300 pages of 179 skill position prospects.
  • Play-by-play notes of each game I study.
  • Position rankings.
  • Rankings by individual skill sets at each position.
  • Assessment of skills that are easy/difficult to learn.
  • Fantasy landscape analysis for each position.
  • Overall rankings with tiers and draft value metrics post-draft.
  • Overrated, Underrated, and Projects.
  • Defined criteria shown for all my scouting reports.

This report is based on my perception of talent, potential fit, long-term development first and then draft stock as a slight factor due to opportunities it affords/prevents as opposed to the other way around. The book outlines my process so you can get better at studying these positions regardless of the accuracy of my assessments on players.

At the same time, I’m still here after 8 years of writing this publication and asked to write for others because my process has helped me have strong takes on players who were often seen as exceptions to the rule like Maurice Jones-Drew, Ahmad Bradshaw, Russell Wilson, Austin Collie, Dennis Pitta, and Ray Rice while also cautioning people about the extreme love for the likes of a Matt Leinart, Robert Meachem, Darren McFadden, and Craig Davis. I have my misses – Demaryius Thomas, John Beck, Bruce Gradkowski, and Will Yeatman are examples – but my process helps me learn. Even when my ranking isn’t sky-high on an unknown-turned-starter like Alfred Morris – my assessment of that player’s skills give you an idea of what he can do if given a shot.

Not many had Kenbrell Thompkins rated as high as the 15th receiver and were writing about him in February. Many scoffed at the idea that Russell Wilson compared favorably to Drew Brees, but I was showing how that could be the case before the 2012 NFL Draft.

I know it doesn’t seem like it, but I don’t like self-promotion. However, I have to do it. Fortunately what I do like telling you is that 10 percent of each RSP purchase is donated to Darkness to Light, a charitable organization devoted to sexual abuse prevention training. Downloading the Rookie Scouting Portfolio is a win-win-win.

Friday Commentary: 10 Third/Fourth-Year Players I’m Monitoring In Training Camp

These players are in no particular order, but here’s why I’m interested in monitoring their progress – and so should you.

Spann JetsII
Spann has impressed thus far. How he does in preseason games could make a huge difference with his NFL future.

Running Back Chad Spann, Jets: Spann is a friend of this blog since I took a shine to his game when he led college football in touchdowns as a senior at Northern Illinois (Cam Newton was No.2). I’m personally a fan of Spann now that I’ve gotten to know him a little bit, but I’ve been persistent about talking about him for the past three years because first and foremost I believe he has the talent to contribute in and NFL lineup. He was a top-five runner on my pre-draft board in 2011 because he made strong decisions, demonstrated good balance, and his burst, and skill after contact all were stylistic reminders of backs like Ray Rice and Ahmad Bradshaw.

Spann is one of many players who has had rough luck early on because his opportunities to contribute were small and a late preseason injury with the Colts, a revolving door at the Bucs’ organization, and a new coordinator in Pittsburgh all foiled the runner’s chance to parlay his good practice/preseason play into a real opportunity. But Spann has continued working and is making good with the Jets as he heads into the first week of the preseason. With Chris Ivory’s health history, Mike Goodson’s troubles, and Bilal Powell the only effective veteran option practicing, Spann’s pass protection, receiving skill, and burst has caught the team’s eye.

While I’m fine with admitting I missed on a player like Knowhson Moreno, if you believe in someone’s skill, you continue to tout them even if they aren’t getting the chance to prove it. Bengals running back Cedric Peerman is one of those players where I’ve seen nothing to disprove my believe that he can be a starter in the NFL. The fact that Jay Gruden told reporters last year that “we didn’t know what we had” in Peerman as a running back after three years he was on the roster, only validates my notion that the Bengals have pegged him as a special teams guy and don’t care to see anything more unless forced to do so. Spann is also one of these players I’ll have to see something different from what I studied to believe he can’t produce as a pro.

Running Back Bilal Powell, Jets: Powell is another interesting case for me. I also had Powell ranked higher than most in the 2011 NFL Draft. While he’s made incremental improvement each year, he failed to make an instant impact. Whether this is because he’s not as talented a runner as I initially thought or the Jets line play and distribution of carries has prevented Powell from truly demonstrating his potential remains to be seen. With Ivory, Goodson, and McKnight missing in action, we’re going to get a better look in the preseason.

Powell is more physical than his size indicates and he’s a volume runner who sets up defenders over the course of several runs. This is why I think the carry distribution under Tony Sparano didn’t maximize Powell’s potential. The Jets are the preseason favorite to be in the Jadeveon Clowney Sweepstakes (the first pick of the 2013 NFL Draft), which has a lot of us wondering just how effective the offense can be for any skill talent. Still, we’ve seen New York improve its run game last year despite tough circumstances so Powell and Spann or worth monitoring.

Is this the year McCluster gets a shot to maximize his skill set? Photo by Tennessee Journalist Wade Rackley.
Is this the year McCluster gets a shot to maximize his skill set? Photo by Tennessee Journalist Wade Rackley.

Offensive Weapons Dexter McCluster, Chiefs and James Casey, Eagles: I thought McCluster would be Tavon Austin before Austin’s arrival in the NFL the way I thought James Casey would be Aaron Hernandez before Hernandez’s arrival in the NFL. In fact, I think McCluster was a far more natural running back than Austin and illustrated it with greater frequency in a less diverse offensive scheme than Austin. However, McCluster went to a Chiefs’ offense where there appeared to be a disconnect between those who drafted the Ole Miss star and how to maximize his talent.

The same could be said of Casey, who once riddled the Saints (see link above) as a receiver, but earned very few opportunities of this magnitude since. Both players have also dealt with injuries and position changes (and flip-flops). This year they seem to be in organizations with coaches and offenses that will maximize their versatility. I’m excited to see how this plays out this month because McCluster has a shot to be a terrific slot option opposite the talents of Travis Kelce at tight end and Casey should have a lot of room underneath and also win mismatches with linebackers on deeper routes when given the green light in Chip Kelley’s offense. Both could earn enough receptions this year (50+) to be among the top 2-3 options in their respective offenses.

Wide Receiver Torrey Smith, Ravens: I love Smith’s speed and skill at winning the ball on deep routes in tight coverage. What remains to be seen is if he can take his game to the level of another speedy receiver with the same last name: Jimmy Smith. Although the Jaguars’ legend has 10 pounds on the Ravens third-year wide out, both players shared similarities in their games early in their careers.

The Ravens’ Smith needs to prove he can not only produce at a high level as the primary weapon, but with out Anquan Boldin and Dennis Pitta making life easier for him. This may mean more intermediate routes in the middle of the field than what I’ve seen in the past. If he can do it, the Ravens will have the offense to stay in games against quality opponents.

Now he knows how to throw the football - or at least knows about the technique.
Now he knows how to throw the football – or at least knows about the technique.

Quarterback Terrelle Pryor, Raiders: When Pryor first entered the NFL, I cautioned fans to remove the beer goggles. Pryor admitted this summer that he didn’t know how to throw the ball when he arrived in Oakland and camp reports indicate he has improved his mechanics. One thing he can do is run.

If Matt Flynn fails to hold this offense together, the Raiders might decide a heavier dose of read-option featuring Pryor and Darren McFadden is a worthwhile stop-gap. I’m curious to see just how much Pryor has improved. The fact that Oakland has red zone packages for him is a positive sign – even if it’s not a glowing endorsement.

Wide Receiver Vincent Brown, Chargers: Not much to say about him that I haven’t here. I think he could be the most underrated producer heading into the 2013 season due to talent, situation, and injury to Danario Alexander. Think Reggie Wayne production from 2012.

Running Backs Joique Bell and Mikel Leshoure, Lions: Leshoure says his burst is back after a hamstring injury that hindered him last year since Week 3. Bell has done enough with his opportunities for Jim Schwartz to say this spring that the former UDFA has forced his way onto the field with his production and work ethic.

Leshoure and Bell are the classic example of the safe, big-school athlete with all the measurements that personnel executives can tick on their balance sheets before issuing a sizable initial investment and a small-school player with dime-a-dozen athleticism in t-shirt and shorts, but notable skill when the pads come on.

[youtube=http://youtu.be/-sLx01pVx_Q]

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Scouts have a saying about college athletes that I’ll paraphrase: The number of stars next to a recruit’s rating can be equated to the number of garages he had on his house. The more garages, the more entitled, the more likely he succumbs to the scent of his press clippings and underwhelms. Likewise, the fewer the garages, the harder the recruit works for everything he wants.

It’s a generalization that sometimes fits college players. I don’t think it fits as well in the pros, but I have to believe there is some element of that at play with individual cases. Was Leshoure one of those five-garage players now looking up at a one-garage guy in Bell? We may find out, because I fear Leshoure might be looking for a new team by 2014 if he does flash 2011 expectations in 2013. Follow?

Jake Locker finally makes an appearance on an RSP Writers Project squad. Zach Bahner values Locker for his versatility, a characteristic that Bahner aims to cultivate with the rest of his team. Photo by NeonTommy.
Jake Locker is the lynch pin to the success or failure of this Titans regime Photo by NeonTommy.

Quarterback Jake Locker, Titans: The weaponry at wide receiver is promising, but every one of these talents has a question mark. Justin Hunter could be the most talented receiver in the draft, but even the camp reports are focused on “toughening him up,” and that’s not a good sign for a player with a history of sloppy habits. Kenny Britt appears to be maturing and preparing with the fervor of a professional for a change. It’s the first year I’m optimistic about him, but his quarterback is another story.

Locker has always been a reckless player. You love that at key moments, but only when he gets off the ground and trots back to the huddle unscathed. Combine this issue with his accuracy and there’s enough concern that he’ll never take the steps to become a productive NFL starter. This will be a pivotal year for the coaching staff and I think the future of this organization hangs in the balance with Locker’s performance.

Football Reads

Steve Smith is so good, you don't even need to qualify with "pound-for-pound" Photo by PDA Photo
Steve Smith is so good you don’t even need to qualify with “pound-for-pound.” Photo by PDA Photo

Views: Great White Shark Even Tries to Flush Afterwards

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Listens:

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Non-Football Reads

Views

Bill Moyers’ Series: Distracted From Democracy: I haven’t seen it yet, but looking forward to taking the time to watch.

Eagles WR Riley Cooper: What He Offers, What to Monitor

0 Comments read Matt Waldman
Riley Cooper is a rapport-type of player. He has the skills to succeed, but his QB will need to have the confidence and skills to make tight throws. Photo by Matthew Straubmuller.
Riley Cooper is a rapport-type of player. He has the skills to succeed, but his QB will need to have the confidence and skills to make tight throws. Photo by Matthew Straubmuller.

During the Urban Meyer Era at Florida there were three skill guys who caught my eye and held serious intrigue as future NFL players: Aaron Hernandez, Tim Tebow, and Riley Cooper. Hernandez’s potential as a game-changing weapon were apparent whenever he saw a target where he could turn up field. Tebow was the lightning rod for debate. Former CBS Sportsline/NFL Draft Scout and NFL.com film analyst Chad Reuter and I had our first fun debate over Tebow. Reuter was convinced Tebow would be a first-round pick and he was right.

While I thought Tebow would have a tough time developing the skills of a traditional pocket passer, I have to credit Reuter for seeing ahead of the curve and having an understanding that the read-option was coming to the league. While Tebow may never get a long-term opportunity again as a starter, there may be a similar dynamic in play that held back Doug Flutie. Different style players, but both thrived as improvisers and leaders and could win with the right offensive system.

But it was Cooper who I thought was sliding under the radar. Tall (6’4″), built (224 lbs.), and swift enough to get separation down field, Cooper didn’t benefit from playing in a system where the quarterback could make multiple reads and execute the vertical game efficiently. Those weren’t Tebow’s strengths, but there were still enough examples on tape where Cooper flashed the potential to develop a complete game.

I wasn’t alone. NFL Network analyst Daniel Jeremiah was between scouting gigs that year when Cecil Lammey and I caught up with him at the Senior Bowl. Cooper was one of Jeremiah’s favorite receivers at the practices and I could see why. Cooper was consistently working open on intermediate routes, earning separation deep, and making difficult targets look easy. He wasn’t flashy, but he was sound.

It may not be how it went down, but it’s no coincidence to me that Jeremiah took a job as a scout with the Eagles soon after the Senior Bowl and Philadelphia drafted Cooper in April. Now that Jeremy Maclin is out for the year, Cooper earns a golden opportunity to start for the Eagles. It seems most observers and fans aren’t impressed with Cooper.

With the exception of some nice work with Vince Young a couple of years ago, I haven’t seen Cooper do much since his days at Florida so there’s a chance he hasn’t developed his game for the pros at the expected trajectory I thought he was capable. However, I have a sneaky feeling that those who are underwhelmed by Cooper are those who need to see a flashy game to be impressed by a skill player.

Here’s my predraft take of Riley Cooper from the 2010 Rookie Scouting Portfolio. Cooper was my No.8 receiver overall behind the likes of Dez Bryant, Damian Williams, Golden Tate, Arrelious Benn, Andre Roberts, Eric Decker, and Blair White – and of course, Demaryius Thomas.

Report Highlights

Cooper scored a 74 and an 81 on two game reports I performed on him as a Senior against Alabama and Cincinnati in the 2010 Sugar Bowl. These reports are on a 100-point scale and Cooper’s scores placed him in the range of a bench player with the skill to contribute immediately in selected packages if needed. These evaluations were done a year or two before I began documenting a “Ceiling Score,” which is my way of gauging his potential at the NFL level based on the ease or difficulty of what he needed to learn.

Looking back through my notes, I think Cooper’s ceiling score would have been in the high 80s – low 90s, which is starter material.  Below are cleaned up play-by-play notes from these two games. Cooper’s stats versus Alabama:

  • 7 Targets
  • 1 Missed Target (QB)
  • 2 Drop
  • 2 Dropped After Contact
  • 77 Yards
  • 51 YAC

Cooper’s stats versus Cincinnati:

  • 8 Targets
  • 1 Missed Target (QB)
  • 7 Receptions
  • 2 Difficult Receptions
  • 181 Yards
  • 60 YAC
  • 1 TD

Here are my overall summaries of these two games as well as my actual play-by-play notes of Riley Cooper that describe what I saw.

Overall Strengths (vs. Alabama): I think Cooper has a lot of potential to be a starting NFL receiver. He is a physical player against press coverage and uses his size to his advantage to get open. He has enough speed to separate vertically and he can adjust to the football in the air. He demonstrates some facility with pro-style, intermediate routes. He is a good runner in the open field who can dip in and out of traffic and shows good balance to get yards after contact. He is a physical player as a blocker and can help on special teams.

I don’t think Cooper is as athletic as Jordy Nelson, but he might be a better receiver at this stage of his development. Michael Irvin would be at the top of the spectrum of receivers to compare Cooper (stylistically). I think he has more upside and down field speed than Malcolm Kelly.

Overall Strengths (vs. Cincinnati): Good route runner. He sets up defenders in single coverage on deep routes with subtle, but very effective moves to get defenders to turn their hips at the wrong time. he can adjust to the ball in the air and make catches with his hands away from his body in tight coverage. Combine these skills with what I think is good speed and Cooper has NFL potential.

Overall Weaknesses (vs. Alabama): Cooper dropped the tough catches after contact that an NFL receiver needs to make. He has good, but not great speed. He needs to prove he can run the entire route tree. Cooper also lacks dynamic athleticism to become a major open-field threat.

Overall Weaknesses (vs. Cincinnati): I didn’t see him face press coverage. he will need to work on extending his routes in the pros because he’ll be playing with quarterbacks that will have the ability to look to more than one quadrant of the field.

What To Look For In Eagles Camp

Cooper will need to catch the ball in tight coverage and after contact. If he still has consistency issues against physical play as the ball arrives, he’s only going to be a role player because his athleticism is good enough, but only good enough to get initial separation and then use his frame to shield the defender from the ball. This means Cooper will be a better fit for the quarterback capable of squeezing the ball into a tight window. If you hear about Cooper working extra with quarterbacks to get more rapport this will be a good sign, because he’s not going to get two steps on defenders and run the ball down as much as he’ll have to make a catch with a defender draped over his back.

Cooper’s size and strength makes him a good candidate for red zone targets on fades, crossing routes, and plays at the end line. If Nick Foles or Matt Barkley see the field, Cooper could earn a lot more targets in the red zone than I think he will with Vick under center. Foles was a pretty good fade route passer at Arizona and Barkley to Woods was often a thing of beauty at USC.

As I mentioned earlier, I did see some nice work with Cooper and Vince Young on scramble drills and I think this is where he may shine with Vick for some big plays behind the defense. However, this is contingent on Vick not leaning heavily on zone-beater Jason Avant, who has some of the most reliable mitts on the team and works a shorter-safer range of the field.

2013 Outlook

I expect DeSean Jackson, LeSean McCoy, James Casey, and Zach Ertz to earn the most targets this year. Cooper might threaten Casey or Ertz’s standing on the totem pole, but I think it’s more likely that Jason Avant, Damaris Johnson, and even Russell Shephard will earn some looks in a rotation that limit Cooper’s targets. However, if Foles or Barkley earn time, Cooper might surprise in the way fellow teammate David Nelson did with the Bills during the Ryan Fitzpatrick era.

For analysis of skill players in this year’s draft class, download the 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio available now. Better yet, if you’re a fantasy owner the 56-page Post-Draft Add-on comes with the 2013 RSP at no additional charge and available for download within a week after the NFL Draft. Best, yet, 10 percent of every sale is donated to Darkness to Light to combat sexual abuse. You can purchase past editions of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio for just $9.95 apiece.

Footballguys: Reinventing My Dynasty Philosophy

0 Comments read Matt Waldman
How should be invest in quarterbacks for dynasty leagues? Was the 2012 class en exception to the rule? Photo by Football Schedule.
How should we invest in quarterbacks for dynasty leagues? Was the 2012 class en exception to the rule? Photo by Football Schedule.

I’m taking a hiatus from dynasty rankings to reassess my philosophies about managing teams in these leagues. This week, I’m examining quarterback data through the lens of something I call career windows. I define career windows as a three-year period in a player’s career because that span of time is known as the average career length of an NFL player.

When we draft players we believe will be viable fantasy contributors, I think we have the expectation that their careers will have more than three years of starter production. Many players have careers three to five times longer than the average.

I think we assess a player’s talent and situation every year, but I like the idea of have some longer perspective about players at each position. I want to know the lay of the land:

  • If and how long I can expect to get starter productivity from players at each position.
  • How does a player’s draft status fit into the scope of these career windows?
  • Are there any basic ideas I can draw from quarterback careers to help me create a basic philosophy for rankings and ranking adjustments in dynasty leagues?

What I hope to gain from these exercises is a set of basic ideas that help me understand when I’m going with or against the grain and to make those decisions with awareness of the dynamics at play.

Tiers Defined

First, I need to establish how I define the categories I use for the position when talking about its fantasy production. Most of you are familiar with how these terms are defined, but I still need to cover my bases. I’m using a 12-team league as the standard for these tiers.

  • Elite – In my view, these are the three most productive productive quarterbacks in a given season.
  • No.1 QB (or QB1) – The 12 most productive quarterbacks in a given season.
  • No. 2 QB (or QB2) – The 13th through 24th quarterbacks. First-tier reserves with potential for playing time on your roster.
  • Bench – The 25th through 36th quarterbacks. Depth for your roster – some developmental; others emergency only.
  • FA (Free Agents) – Quarterbacks lacking talent, situation, and/or opportunity to prouduce in the present.

These tiers are general estimates. There are some years where four quarterbacks post elite-level fantasy production and others where only one makes the cut. I’m not using fantasy points to drive tiers because the point values have changed – especially at the quarterback position – in just 20 years. Chase Stuart posted a graph of this change, but using VBD as a more refined data point.

Here’s what the 20-year change looks like through the lens of quarterback tiers (Read the rest at Footballguys.com)

RSO Team: Football Outsiders’ Rivers McCown

0 Comments read Reads Listens Views
It's a bad idea to evaluate a smile the way you critique his release. Photo by PDA.Photo
Any team with Cam Newton as the quarterback is primed for big weeks. Rivers McCown of Football Outsiders gives you the rest of the scoop on his RSO squad from last month’s auction. Photo by PDA.Photo

Rivers McCown makes my Futures column look better. He makes all the Football Outsiders look better – at least in print. McCown participated in our recent Reality Sports Online writer draft. This is an auction league that includes multi-year contracts. Go here to learn more about the league.  You can join a league for $9.99 as an individual or form a league with your friends. Go to www.realitysportsonline.com and use the promotion code RSP20%OFF, you’ll earn a 20 percent discount. 

Pre-Draft Strategy

I actually didn’t have time to come in with much of a strategy. I rather liked how it turned out, and I had a few big ideas going through my head when creating the team (get settled at RB early and target older receivers with the belief that they’ll be cheaper), but I can’t attest that I had some grand, unified theory come true. In retrospect, I would have aimed for one very good, young receiver with my four-year deal rather than David Wilson, but I’m not dissatisfied.

For a time, D.J. Harper was considered the best back at Boise State - and Doug Martin was on the team . Photo by Football Schedule.
McCown thought his deal on Martin was such a steal that the league was going to roll back the auction, but he made off in the night with a top RB at a great contract. Photo by Football Schedule.

How the Auction Unfolded

Quarterback Yrs $ Running Back Yrs $
Cam Newton (CAR)
 3 49.0
Doug Martin (TB)
 3 67.5
Josh Freeman (TB) R
 1 3.5
David Wilson (NYG)
 4 56.5
Chase Daniel (KC) R**
 1 0.5
Stepfan Taylor (ARI) R
 3 R
Theo Riddick (DET) R
 3 R
Willis McGahee (DEN) R
 1 2.5
Montario Hardesty (CLE) R
 1 1.5
Daniel Thomas (MIA) R
 1 1.0
Michael Smith (TB) R
 1 0.5
Jeremy Stewart (OAK) R**
 1 0.5
Wide Receiver Yrs $ Tight End Yrs $
Andre Johnson (HOU)
 2 32.5
Jermichael Finley (GB)
 2 6.0
Reggie Wayne (IND)
 1 15.0
Tyler Eifert (CIN) R
 3 R
Lance Moore (NO)
 1 4.5
Fred Davis (WAS) R
 1 1.5
Mohamed Sanu (CIN) R
 1 2.5
Rueben Randle (NYG) R
 1 2.5
Malcom Floyd (SD)
 1 2.5
Jarius Wright (MIN) R
 1 1.5
T.J. Graham (BUF) R**
 1 0.5
Nate Burleson (DET) R
 1 0.5
Justin Hunter (TEN) R
 3 R
Ryan Swope (ARI) R
 3 R
Kicker Yrs $ Defense Yrs $
Rob Bironas (TEN) R
 1 0.5
Chicago
 1 0.5
Ryan Succop (KC)
 1 0.5
Pittsburgh
 1 0.5

**These players were acquired via free agency after the draft. 

I think I got Doug Martin for a song because nobody was awake yet – I was surprised that didn’t get rewound when it happened. That enabled me to get a little more aggressive with the other guys I had targeted. I think the two biggest mistakes I made was not getting a third “established” back (because who knows what will happen with McGahee, Ball, Hillman, etc.) and losing a bidding war with Mike Clay for Antonio Brown when he was the last truly elite receiver (in my mind) on the board. I recovered and garnered a lot of possible WR3 guys, but none of them have Brown’s upside and I could have spent less on the margins to bring him in without losing much.

The quarterback shuffle was the most interesting part of the league for me. I think there were some good bargains with the older quarterbacks, but I was dead-set on a young guy. I knew that a Matt Waldman league was not a place where Russell Wilson would go cheap. Colin Kaepernick got thrown out early and was surprisingly expensive. Luck got thrown out early and was ridiculously expensive. So I hitched my wagon to Cam Newton and went a little over my initial range. If Carolina continues to involve him in the run game, he’s the one quarterback with the body I’d bet on to survive it, so I was less hesitant to spend on him than I would have been with some of the other young quarterbacks.

Best/Worst Deals

While I disagree with McCown about the value of Finley relative to Davis, the recent non-playoff productivity isn't that far away. Photo by Elvis Kennedy.
While I disagree with McCown about the value of Finley relative to Davis, the recent non-playoff productivity isn’t that far away. Photo by Elvis Kennedy.

Martin is my best deal, clearly. I also though Finley was a decent bargain at his price given how guys like Vernon Davis and Tony Gonzalez went for at least $8 million. My least favorite bid was for Fred Davis, who I was just trying to bump up – $1.5 million isn’t a killer, and there’s upside, but it’s injury-dependent. I’m happy he’s my third tight end.

Good Deals By Other Writers

McCown thought Sigmund Bloom's acquisition of LeSean McCoy was one of the best deals of the Reality Sports Auction. Photo by Matthew Straubmuller.
McCown thought Sigmund Bloom’s acquisition of LeSean McCoy was one of the best deals of the Reality Sports Auction. Photo by Matthew Straubmuller.

I am a big fan of Sigmund Bloom’s LeSean McCoy deal – I think it fit the basic scale of my Martin deal, but was just a little more expensive. I thought Jim Day struck gold with Eric Decker for three years, $25 million. Antonio Gates for $1 million is a deal that made my jaw drop.

Honestly, outside of the Gronkowski deal, I thought Bloom had a few other killer deals, too. Jordy Nelson was a sneaky steal at $32.5 million for 3 years, but put me in the camp that wouldn’t have paid more than the league minimum for Sam Bradford.

And as good as A.J. Green is, I think he’s going to have a hard time living up to the $92.5 million, 3-year deal that Lance Zierlein signed him to while running his auction at a Little League game.

Favorite Team (Other Than Yours)

I think Bloom and Bob Harris put together the most complete teams. They have the strongest receiving corps. Harris needs a second running back to step up and Bloom needs Roethlisberger to stay healthy all season. If either one of those things break right they have tough teams with a lot of depth.

Assessment of the Reality Sports Online Platform

The functionality was fine. I wish I understood a little more about how the top bid algorithm was decided, but that’s just my inner nerd.

Your Team’s Short-Term/Long-Term Outlook

Short-term, I think this team has a great chance as long as the running backs stay healthy. Long-term, it really depends on how the receiving situation shakes out. Can Mohamed Sanu make me feel good about that two-year deal? Is the lack of depth on the market going to make it hard for me to replace Reggie Wayne? Am I going to have a chance at Marqise Lee? Haha. That’s the area where the turnover is going to be hard to predict right now, but I’d rather have holes to fill there than at the other spots.

Reads Listens Views 5/24/13

0 Comments read Reads Listens Views

I took a short hiatus from Reads Listens Views this month. It has nothing to do with the draft being done – I have a magazine assignment about the design of a 306,000 square-foot building at my day gig and a magazine to wrap up by June 15. If you’re new to the RSP blog, Reads Listens Views is a Friday feature that is my way of referring readers to other football writers, fantasy links, and things I found interesting away from the sport.

Listens

[youtube=http://youtu.be/JxpNyyoW9Vc]

I imagine it’s fun to brag when you played football with a future NFL star in high school or college. It’s just as fun to say you performed in college with a guy with talent of the magnitude to guest star on Herbie Hancock’s album and have Stevie Wonder be a guest on his. If you’re curious, I was in a horn section performing the Earth Wind and Fire tune September and Raul was doing a mean Phillip Bailey. Catch him if you can . . .

[youtube=http://youtu.be/j-AehUIQUrw]

Thank You

I’ll gradually begin increasing the volume of content as summer gets rolling. In the meantime, I’d like to thank those of you for purchasing the 2013 RSP publication. You support this blog, the publication, and you’re helping a great cause all in one.

If you haven’t bought the RSP before, I can say with pride that you’ll get as much out of it as I put into it – and I put everything I can into it. My readers will tell you they love it. If you’re on the fence, I am confident that you’ll realize this is one of those cases where there’s little hype to what I’m saying here. Plus, I donate 10 percent of each sale to Darkness to Light, a non-profit whose mission is to prevent and combat sexual abuse through community training and awareness.

Download the RSP now and know that with your purchase, you also get access to the 2013 Post-Draft publication that comes with it. At the very least, follow this blog click on the link on the left to follow and you’ll receive email updates when I post new articles that give you a taste of the analysis and detail put into the RSP publication. Then consider supporting the site (and do yourself a favor at the same time) by downloading the publication.

Views

[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W1TMZASCR-I?rel=0&w=420&h=315]

The Little Metronome That Wouldn’t

Football Reads

If you’re not reading Chase Stuart, you should check out something of his at least once a week. He’ll tell you he learned under Pro-Football-Reference.com writer/originator Doug Drinen – and Drinen taught Stuart well. Football Perspective is Stuart’s site and one of my favorite sites that does statistical analysis.  He shows his work, the material is intellectually honest, and he approaches his studies with curiosity and a balanced scope and understanding that the sports analytics movement is just a chapter in the story and not the entire book.

Stuart knows about the game beyond the numbers and he’s a willing historian of eras that he may not have been witness to, but approaches with a reverence that makes his site one of the most enjoyable football blogs around. Here are three pieces that I think are well worth reading and learning whether you are a student of the game or a fantasy fanatic.

Non-Football Reads

RSO Writers League: Site Review and My Draft

0 Comments read Matt Waldman
I'd start my fantasy season with Calvin Johnson, wouldn't you? Photo by Mike Morbeck.
Start your fantasy season with Calvin Johnson? How about signing him to a two-year deal? Even better. Find out where you can do it online and no Excel needed.  Photo by Mike Morbeck.

This weekend I donned the commissioner hat of a fantasy league for the first time in six years. This is no run-of-the-mill league. Not only are the owners an extraordinary group of fantasy writers, but Reality Sports Online’s style of game and draft application is taking fantasy football in a direction I want to go.

Sigmund Bloom equated the process to an expedition to undiscovered territory. Thanks to your’s truly, who opted to have each team sign 25 players in the free agent auction it felt like a never-ending quest. Fortunately, there were no fatalities and most of our adventurers made it to the end. The overwhelming sentiment was that they relished the journey.

I believe if you’re the type of fantasy owner who reads my work or the work of guys in the league below, you’ll relish what RSO has to offer. Today, I’m covering the start-up process of this league, providing my takes on each team, and reviewing the RSO site and application.

In subsequent posts, I’m going to profile the rest of the teams.

Taking the Plunge with Reality Sports Online’s Front Office Format (Salary Cap-Keeper-Dynasty -Contract-Auction Format)

Have you ever learned a skill that appears more daunting than it actually is? My wife has a good example – installing tile. She’s been tiling kitchens and bathrooms for years – it was even a part of what she did when she owned her own business.

At first, the idea of getting these individual pieces on a wall at the appropriate level and coordination of color seemed difficult to her when thinking about how few mistakes one can make during this process. But a little front-end preparation revealed it was a lot easier than she imagined.

RSO’s format can have that kind of feel at first and the learning curve seems a lot steeper than it really is. Once you spend a few minutes learning the rules and trying out the draft room, you realize the process is not only intuitive, but it might be one of the most promising ways to run a league that I have seen yet.

To use a more dramatic example of RSO’s learning curve, I immediately thought of Bud (played by Ed Harris) from the movie The Abyss when he dons a tricked-out deep-sea diving helmet that requires him to breathe liquid:

[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b338ZWuYsJ0?rel=0&w=560&h=315]

There’s an initial fear factor, but then it’s a lot more natural than you’d expect. The reason is many of you hardcore owners are doing contract or keeper leagues now, but spending time keeping up with your own spreadsheets and calculations. RSO is among the first I’ve seen that are doing it for you.

There are a few kinks to work out to make the RSO platform a little more flexible when it comes to setting up pre-draft lists and adding players to a nomination queue, but I have tried numerous auction sites over the years and the application on the whole is intuitive, smooth, and had no breakdowns. Try a league at RSO and use the promotion code RSP20%OFF to earn a 20 percent discount.

RSO won the FSTA’s 2012 Rookie of the Year Award and was a Finalist for the Most Innovative Product Award. I get the vibe that these guys are working hard to make the product the best it can be and they appear open and responsive to feedback.

The Basics

RSO is a league management fantasy football website runs keeper leagues that operate with contract values that mimic the NFL’s system. The site owners are former NFL employees – one of them helped run a team’s cap. I think I can boil down the details to keep it simple:

  • Each team is given approximately $123 million in cap space (the number moves each year with the NFL cap).
  • Leagues can be a wide variety of sizes: Offense w/team defense or IDP.
  • Every year there is a rookie draft (serpentine) and free agent auction draft that is completed in one sitting.*
  • There are three basic contract types:
    • A standard, three-year or four-year deal for your rookie draft picks based on the draft order (contract settings determined by commissioner).
    • A standard, one-year deal as determined by the winning bid in a free agent auction.
    • Three types of multi-year contracts that your league can determine how many each team can offer:
      • Four-year
      • Three-year
      • Two-year
  • The site manages trades and free agency according to the cap and it’s all automated.

The multi-year contracts and the auction is what seems harder than it really is. The auction room tracks how much cap room you have and what it’s going to cost you to win a player. One you use all your multi-year deals, the site only allows you to bid with one-year deals. It’s also encouraged that you save $5-$10 million of your $123 million for drop/adds.

Once you see how it all flows, it’s really just a facet of what makes RSO’s league format something I want to try again and again.

*We got the benefit of doing a slow rookie draft due to the schedules of our writers but after using the application, we could have easily done everything in one night if we had 20-man rosters and shorter nomination and bid times.
Pick rookies with a snake draft, sign the rest like the NFL - free agency at Reality Sports Online. Photo by John Martinez-Paviliga
Pick rookies with a snake draft, sign the rest like the NFL – free agency at Reality Sports Online. Photo by John Martinez-Paviliga

Contract/Auction Strategy

A good example of this contract strategy in play is how an owner chooses to award its multi-year deals. Some owners will regard a stud like Calvin Johnson as player they will try to sign with a four-year deal. This makes sense: the longer the deal, the less money paid per year and the easier it is on your cap room if Johnson continues to have the same quality career for the next four years.

The risk is if Johnson gets hurt or under performs. Then you’re in a deal that’s costing you money over the next four years and you’ll still have some of this money on your books during that time even if you cut Johnson. All of this is calculated for you on the site, so it’s not something you have to dwell on until it’s time to start thinking about roster moves. You don’t have to be a capologist to play this game, but it spells out the details so you feel like you’re one.

Another strategy could be to sign young, ascending talents to long-term deals. Perhaps you love T.Y. Hilton’s game or you think Russell Wilson is about to reach Drew Brees territory and you want to sign them at a minimal cost and hope they become studs after you locked them into a bargain rate. Of course, the risk is they never take that next step and you’ve tied up mediocre talent.

These contracts become more important when making trades, dropping/adding players, and how much money you have available for future rookie drafts and free agent auctions. This is where RSO’s format takes on some of the realism of the NFL.

Let’s say Michael Floyd has a break-out year opposite Larry Fitzgerald now that Carson Palmer is in Arizona and Bruce Arians drafted a couple of guards. If a team only signed Floyd to a 1-year deal, they might not be able to afford to get him back in 2014 and could lose him to a team with a lot of cap room at that point.

Waldman’s RSO Writer’s League Strategy: Rookie Draft and Free Agent Auction

Here’s the basics about this 14-team league:

Scoring Basics

  • PPR w/a 1-point bonus after 10 receptions
  • 4 pts/Pass TD; 6 pts/Rush-Rec TDs
  • Points bonuses at 100, 150, and 200 yards rushing and receiving
  • Points bonuses at 300, 350, and 400 yards passing
  • Penalties for interceptions

Roster, Draft, and Cap/Contract Basics

  • Starting lineups: 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 Flex (WR/TE), 1 DEF, 1 K
  • 30 Roster spots and 3 IR spots
  • Five-round, serpentine rookie draft (no trades)
  • Each team has the following number of multi-year contracts available in the Free Agent Auction Draft
    • 4-year Free Agency Contracts (1)
    • 3 -year Free Agency Contracts (2)
    • 2 -year Free Agency Contracts (3)
    • 1-year contracts (19)
  • Note: rookie contracts in the serpentine draft are all three-year deals at a tiered value according to draft spot. Rookie contracts offered in the free agency draft are “free agent deals,” which means it can be a multi-year deal or a one-year deal based on bid.

I had the eight-spot in this 14-team rookie draft and I stuck close to the RSP Post-Draft playbook with one major exception:

  • 1.08 – WR Keenan Allen
  • 2.07 – WR Da’Rick Rogers
  • 3.08 – WR Marquess Wilson
  • 4.07 – TE Luke Willson
  • 5.08 – QB Sean Renfree

While RSO allows for a third running back as a flex-play in its league setup options, I personally dislike it. There’s something that goes against my football aesthetic when I see fantasy leagues with a third running back. I play in them all the time, but since this was “my” league I got to make the rules.

The strategic influence of this wrinkle to starting lineups is that receiver and tight end depth become a little more important if thinking long-term. On the one hand, running backs tend to make a bigger impact early so I can see how drafting backs makes more sense in a league like this because at least you get a year or two of strong production from a top-end runner before they become free agents and the market value sky-rockets. Receivers, tight ends, and quarterbacks might take a few years and never deliver a return on investment with your squad.

As I finish writing this last paragraph I wonder if I didn’t make a mistake to take running backs with Lacy, Lattimore, Franklin, and Stacy all on the board. However, those were the only backs left in the first round who I felt have a strong chance to make an impact in the first three seasons and not enough to dislodge me from Allen.

Rogers has the kind of upside to render draft status useless. Photo by Wade Rackley.
Rogers has the kind of upside to render draft status useless. Photo by Wade Rackley.

Rookie Thoughts

Keenan Allen: This is a PPR league with yards and reception bonuses and I think Allen has the type of versatile skill set to see a lot of targets from the slot, but also used on the perimeter. I regard Allen as a player similar to Michael Crabtree, but with more upside due to his quarterback. All apologies to Colin Kapernick, who is a promising young player, but Phillip Rivers is a better down field passer and at this point a savvier quarterback.  The San Diego offense under Mike McCoy should feature enough short passing for Allen to provide quality fantasy production this year. As a player whose draft stock was littered with risk, I see Allen as one of the safer picks in this draft class.

Da’Rick Rogers: Once Travis Kelce and Stedman Bailey left with the picks just ahead of me, I opted for the upside of Rogers. Steve Johnson’s recurrent groin issues and the lack of quality receivers in this depth chart before the 2013 NFL Draft make this a nice landing spot for the rookie. Rogers reminds me of a mix of Dwayne Bowe and Terrell Owens. If Rogers even approaches these comps, I have a player with 70-catch potential and the skills to be the most productive receiver on this Bills team. I think Robert Woods is a better technician and will see the most time this year among the rookies if Johnson can stay healthy. However, Johnson’s leg issue could open the door for Rogers in 2014 if the rookie behaves.

Marquess Wilson: There’s a common theme with my first three picks. All three are wide receivers with first- or second-round talent who slid due to factors outside game film study in the pre-draft evaluation process. At just 20 years of age, Wilson will have three years of NFL experience by the time most players his age get drafted. My hope is that Wilson doesn’t break my heart by coming into his own late in year three when I can’t reap any return on him. I think he’s a great fit for Jay Cutler and capable of stepping into the starting lineup this year if called upon. I love his ability to adjust to the ball. He makes a lot of tough catches and can play outside or in the slot due to his quickness. If he can take this difficult year and turn it into a learning experience, he could be the most productive receiver I drafted on this list. I think Marc Trestman and the Bears have similar sentiments.

Luke Willson: Wilson fits the athletic profile of tight end capable of developing into a primary contributor in fantasy leagues.   His 4.5-speed the body of an in-line tight end is every bit as promising as his Rice teammate Vance McDonald, but an ankle injury prevented Willson from making the same impression on NFL teams last year. He made an early impact in mini camp and at this point, I decided to take the chance on Willson’s prospects of developing into a high-end TE1 rather than settling for prospects at the position that I rated higher, but have less upside.

Sean Renfree: Admittedly this probably a wasted pick.  Renfree and Wilson are why I wish I opted for four-year contracts for rookies instead of three. I think the Duke quarterback has the skills to earn the No.2 role in Atlanta this year if he can return from a torn pectoral muscle by July. If not, I still think he can do enough to earn the No.3 spot and work his way into the backup role by 2014. I’m banking on a chance for Renfree to showcase his wares in preseason or a Matt Ryan injury so Renfree can attract a market once he becomes a free agent. I also planned to take Matt Ryan but I execute as well as I should and Football Diehards owner Bob Harris earn Ryan at a steal.  More below.

Pre-Auction Strategy

The running joke in the auction chat room was that by the time we figured out the best ways to approach this league, we’d be halfway through the auction and without the funds to do anything about it.  Looking back at my pre-auction strategy I would say my experience was not the same. I had a good clue, but my poor analysis of my cap hindered my execution.

With just one, four-year deal I hoped to spend it on a quarterback. They have the longest fantasy lifespan of any position and it made the most sense to anchor a high-end starter at that position to my roster for multiple years. The two players I decided to target were Matt Ryan and Russell Wilson. If I could land one at a reasonable price with my four-year deal, I’d feel great about the long-term outlook of my team.

I also wanted one stud at running back and wide receiver signed to a deal of no less than a two-years so my team can have a chance to remain competitive as my one-year contracts turn over in 2014 and my rookies continue to develop. These are the two positions I hoped to acquire the most depth – especially at receiver. I believe wide outs are the easiest to trade and I want to afford myself flexibility to make deals.

As for executing an auction for your team, there are three basic ways to do it:

  • Studs and Duds: Spend a high percentage of cap on a few big-name starters and then pay the minimum for a supporting cast and depth. This is the most aggressive approach. I won three writers leagues in two years with this technique but its name would be more apt as Studs or Duds because it’s often either/or as a team outcome with this approach.
  • Middle of the Road: This technique is about setting hard budgets for players and pacing yourself. You don’t go over certain bid amounts. The downside is you rarely land the known studs, but the upside is that you acquire quality depth and spread a number of viable options across your starting lineup. If your fantasy performers demonstrate week-to-week consistency at a high level, you have a winner.
  • Control the End: My friend, Footballguys.com co-owner, and one-time, regular auction competitor David Dodds loves to wait until the rest of the league has spent enough of its cap for him to maintain control of the auction and win the discount deals – and there are always enough – to build a quality team. Dodds loves to talk ridiculous trash to his competition. It’s a common joke among those of us who draft with him that he’s still picking from his top-50 list 200 picks into a draft.

Personally, I try to incorporate a mix of the first two methods. I aim for at least two studs and then opt for mid-level starters – mid-range WR2s and RB2s, and low-end QB1s and TE1s – hoping that half of them have strong years. Then I try to stay patient long enough to have some money at the end and pick a few late-round hopefuls with high upside.

The problem with auction drafts is that I don’t do them as much as I’d like. They are by far my favorite form of league, but time constraints limit me from joining new leagues. If I can convince half of my leagues to adopt this format, I’d be pleased.

Until then, I don’t get as much practice with auctions as I’d like and there are pitfalls I have to be especially careful to avoid:

  • Impulse Buying: It’s easy to get an itchy trigger finger in the opening 50 picks when you see stud after stud coming off the board and you have all of your money in your pocket. I don’t mind paying premium for a couple of players, but when a “couple” is used casually to mean “3 or 4” you can derail your strategy really fast.
  • Trigger Shyness: For me, this happens when I don’t feel clear about player value once the bidding comes down to me and another owner over a player. A couple of seconds of hesitation can cost you a good deal despite a bidding war that seems to go on for minutes at a time.
  • Sticking It to Yourself: One of my favorite aspects about auction leagues is watching owners engage in the practice of increasing the bid on players to police other owners from earning deep discounts. Jim Day and Chad Parsons’ were the best at this on Friday night. They jacked up bid after bid, but made deft exits at the right time to make sure their opponents paid at least what the player was worth – if not more. The danger is that if you pick the wrong player to enforce this strategy, you can get stuck with a guy you don’t want.

In an auction with fantasy writers these practices can get magnified if you’re not careful. Especially with wily vets like Bob Harris, who claims he’s never drafted in an auction league. The Hall of Fame fantasy writer (yes, there is such a distinction) is not a shark as much as he’s a spider with a lair somewhere in the southwest. He spins a really pretty web . . .

Bob Harris stole Matt Ryan and I was the Keystone Cops. Photo by Football Schedule.
Bob Harris stole Matt Ryan and I was the Keystone Cops. Photo by Football Schedule.

My Auction 

I won’t know until I dig deeper into the rest of the rosters, but at first glance I feel better about my team than I did during the auction. I made three mistakes during my draft – one from each category above – and I nearly hamstrung my efforts. Yet, I pulled out some solid deals in the mid-to-late rounds. Perhaps my marathon film study sessions helped me as my competition get sharper as others faded into the night.  Probably not, but it sounds good.

I will be profiling other teams soon. Here are links to the league’s rosters and the auction results. For the info displayed below The contract amount is in increments of millions.  The “R” next to player’s names is for “reserve” a designation based on my potential starting lineup. If there is an “R” in the $ box then it means they were a rookie draft pick with a designated salary by spot in the serpentine draft.

Quarterback Yrs $ Running Back Yrs $ Wide Receiver Yrs $
Jay Cutler (CHI) 1 4.0 Arian Foster (HOU) 2 51.0 Calvin Johnson (DET) 2 69.5
Carson Palmer (ARI) R 1 3.0 Steven Jackson (ATL) 1 16.5 Cecil Shorts (JAC) 4 18.5
Alex Smith (KC) R 2 2.5 Ryan Williams (ARI) R 1 2.5 DeSean Jackson (PHI) 3 10.5
Sean Renfree (ATL) R 3 R Ben Tate (HOU) R 3 7.5 Keenan Allen (SD) 3 R
Alex Green (GB) R 1 0.5 LaVon Brazill (IND) R 1 0.5
Shaun Draughn (KC) R 1 0.5 Marvin Jones (CIN) R 1 1.0
Cedric Peerman (CIN) R 1 0.5 Domenik Hixon (CAR) R 1 0.5
Bobby Rainey (BAL) R 1 0.5 Earl Bennett (CHI) R 1 0.5
Marquess Wilson (CHI) R 3 R
Da’Rick Rogers (BUF) R 3 R
Kenbrell Thompkins (NE) R 1 0.5

Quarterbacks

Here’s where I made the biggest auction gaffe for my team. I got into a bidding war with Bob Harris for Matt Ryan. Mike MacGregor recently acquired Tom Brady with a three-year deal for $40 million. I’d say a deal that comes out at a little more than $13.3 million per year for Brady is a strong buy – even at Brady’s age.

As the competition dropped to the wayside on Ryan, Harris and I were creeping north of $30 million and I hesitated on Ryan’s value. I didn’t have a clear cut-off on Ryan. Was it too much? Clock ticking . . . Didn’t Brady go off the board for more? Clock ticking . . .What was that amount again? 4 . . . 3 . . . Should I use a four-year or three-year deal? 2 . . .

I click the four-year deal, but not in enough time and Harris signs Ryan – perhaps the quarterback in the NFL with the best mix of consistency, years left, upside, and surrounding talent in the league for a paltry $31.5 million for 3 years.

Steal.

I’m a little upset with myself at this point, but Russell Wilson is still left in the auction. The problem is that the next owner smartly nominates Russell Wilson immediately after Harris nabs Ryan, which means Wilson is now in a pool with a bunch of owners who just woke up and realized they let Ryan go off the board for a song.

I realized right after losing the Ryan bid that I was willing to pay $14-15 million per year for the Falcons quarterback so I will probably have to pay at least that much for Wilson based on what just happened. Sure enough the bidding comes down to me and Officer Jim Day of the RSO Writers League Bidding Police Precinct 411.

Within seconds Day and I raise Wilson’s price from $9 million per year to $12 million and climbing. When we reach $15 million per year – alternating with 3- and 4-year offers – I’m stretching beyond my comfort zone because I already spent big money on two other players. Ultimately, I decided to stand down on Wilson and Day landed the Seahawk as his backup to Peyton Manning with a 4-year deal at $63.5 million (total).

Day will have trade bait with that four-year deal if he wants to dangle it. So I opted for plan B – a quarterback by committee with two players I think have a realistic shot at low-end QB1 production and the talent to deliver even more to fantasy owners if the offensive lines improve: Jay Cutler and Carson Palmer for a combined $7 million. While it’s half the price of Wilson – it’s conceivable I get half the quarterback play, too.

Still, I feel good about what’s happening in Chicago with Marc Trestman as the architect and I like the possibilities the Cardinals have with Palmer, Floyd, Fitzgerald, and most important, the upgrades along the offensive line.  I wish I didn’t have to talk about Alex Smith, but “what had happened was . . . ” I tried to increase the bid on Smith early and realized I was doing so with Alex Smith.

Don’t get me wrong, Palmer and Cutler could get hurt by mid season if the Bears and Cardinals offensive lines revert to recent form so Smith could be useful. I also paid a whopping $2 million for 2 years. It may not be what I meant to do, but it was a minor mistake compared to letting Matt Ryan slip in the dark of night to Harris.

cropped-troy-polamalu-by-karen-blaha1.jpg

Running Backs

I had to nab a stud here. I could have gone with a younger guy with upside, but decided I didn’t want to be a part of a bidding war for Trent Richardson or Doug Martin. Football Outsiders writer Rivers McCown nabbed Martin for a reasonable $67.5 million for 3 years, paying somewhere around $22 million of his current year cap as guaranteed money for 2013. This actually looked like a nice deal  compared to what Jason Wood shelled out for Adrian Peterson – a two-year signing for $71 million.

It was on the heels of that Peterson deal that Arian Foster hit the block and instead of trying to slow roll the bid a little higher and hope I got a deal, I decided to go strong to the hole and hope my competition would hesitate. My competition was still messing around with contracts for $4 million when I upped the number to a two-year, $40 million deal.

If I remember correctly, most of the bids dropped out and after the next competing bid that inched skyward of $41 million, I came hard over the top again with $50 and wound up winning at 2 years, $51 million for Foster. Not a great deal compared to Martin or even Mike MacGregor’s, 4-year $97 million signing of Trent Richardson at a little less per year for twice the tenure, but Harris has a two-year deal on Jamaal Charles for $60.5 million and Tim Stafford has C.J. Spiller at 3 years, $75 million.

I can live with what I paid for Foster – especially for two years.

Steven Jackson at one year for $16.5 million seems pricey for his recent performances in St. Louis, but if you think he still has the juice for at least one more year then he’s at least as skilled as Michael Turner – the Atlanta runner, who had at least 1300 yards and double-digit touchdowns in three of his four seasons between 2009-2011.

I’ll pay $16.5 million for that kind of production. Heck, I’ll pay it for top-20 production for one year and that’s what Turner delivered last year despite a more pass happy system and operating at a step slower than he appeared in the past.

Ben Tate fortunately didn’t get added to the block right after Foster joined my team or else I probably would have to pay a little more. As Lance Zierlein noted, getting Tate at three years, $7.5 million is a nice deal considering that he’ll be a free agent in 2014. I’m not a huge Tate fan, but I have to agree.

Few backs move to a new team in recent years and become studs. Michael Turner, Marshawn Lynch, and Reggie Bush come to mind and they are the minority.  However, even if Tate joins a committee the price is still good value.

Ryan Williams’ stock is at rock bottom. He’s coming off his second injury in two years and Bruce Arians named Rashard Mendenhall the starter. Still, Williams  has starter talent. Arizona’s upgrades make me feel like I could get $2.5 million dollar’s worth (at least) from a finally healthy Williams as my second back off the bench.

Alex Green is a cheap option who still has a chance to make the team. We’ll see if he’s finally healthy enough to compete at the level he’s capable. Shaun Draughn surprised me last year. I saw him at North Carolina and thought he was a good, but not great college runner. He looks a lot quicker than I remember from his days in Chapel Hill. He might still give the Chiefs competition a run for that No.2 spot. Cedric Peerman and Bobby Rainey are two players I believe have the talent, but lack the opportunity.

I just realized I have three receivers from Cal on my squad. DeSean Jackson needs to play to that form to help me contend. Photo by Avinashkunnath.
I just realized I have three receivers from Cal on my squad. DeSean Jackson needs to play to that form to help me contend. Photo by Avinashkunnath.

Wide Receiver

I probably overpaid for Calvin Johnson. My deal came on the heels of Lance Zierlein giving up $92.5 million for three years. I should have resisted, but I admit that I got impulsive with the prospect of having Johnson on my team. He has been a top-five fantasy receiver for three straight years, he’s been the top fantasy receiver overall for two years straight (even with only 5 touchdowns in 2012), and he’s winning against triple coverage. He’ll be 28 in September. If there’s a player in a PPR league worth this kind of money, Johnson is it.

Although I paid a premium for the best wide receiver in football I did have some pleasant surprises in the middle rounds. My four-year deal went to a player I didn’t anticipate signing: Cecil Shorts. A polarizing player in the fantasy community, Shorts has big-play skills but spotty quarterback play has some people down on the receiver’s future. Chase Stuart gives a balanced opinion with the stats and some context to the numbers. At 4 years, $18.5 million I paid for a young player with high-end No.2 upside without a good quarterback at a No.3 receiver price point.

I also think DeSean Jackson could be a steal at $10.5 million over 3 years. I’m not chest-thumping this signing yet, because he hasn’t had starter numbers since 2011 and he hasn’t truly played like one since 2010. If he an return to 2009-2010 form, I’ll have a formidable corps at a bargain – even with Calvin Johnson.

Bryan Fontaine has one of my favorite receiving trios in this league: Dwayne Bowe, Larry Fitzgerald, and Dez Bryant for a total of $108.5 million. My trio has the potential to match that production as a unit at a $10 million savings. I also have two of my deals of at least three years whereas Fontaine only has one deal over two years. I’m not trying to tell you that my corps is better than Fontaine’s group, but I’m not as far away as it appears on paper.

Domenik Hixon is skilled enough to win the slot job in Carolina and even outplay Brandon LaFell. The rest of my wideouts are RSP favorites with chances to earn playing time this year: Marvin Jones, LaVon Brazill, and Earl Bennett all have potential to contribute and they’re excellent players with the ball in the air.

Can't go wrong with this VD. Photo by The Bay Area Bias.
Can’t go wrong with this VD even if I went wrong with Smith. Photo by The Bay Area Bias.
Tight End Yrs $ Kicker Yrs $ Defense Yrs $
Vernon Davis (SF) 1 8.0 Sebastian Janikowski (OAK) 1 0.5 Seattle 1 2.5
Dwayne Allen (IND) R 1 2.5 Robbie Gould (CHI) R 1 0.5 Detroit 1 0.5
Luke Willson (SEA) R 3 R

Tight Ends, Kickers, and Defenses

If Vernon Davis produces like he did during the 2012 season, I overpaid. If Davis plays like has in the postseason, I’ll have a bargain. I think he’s the best all-around tight end in football, but he doesn’t get the chance to show it as a receiver due to quarterback play. Hopefully Kaepernick continues to find Davis like he did in January. I’m a Dwayne Allen fan and I believe he’ll provide good bye-week value.

Janikowski and Gould are like the Odd Couple. One is on a team that might have trouble scoring but can boot it from 60 yards. The other lacks great range, but should see more opportunities due to the offense. I’ll roll with these two for a total of $1 million.

I paid about twice as much for Seattle than I wanted, but it’s another case of paying for value. Detroit is my bye-week option.

Team Outlook

I’m not going to say my team is a great contender. If I got Matt Ryan or Russell Wilson I think I’d feel a little more confident. As it stands, I think my team is in the middle of the pack. The upside of I think Johnson, Foster, and Steven Jackson will keep me competitive as long as I get similar play from Cecil Shorts and Vernon Davis at their best stretches of 2012. If Cutler, Palmer, or DeSean Jackson play to their potential I’ll have a real shot.

Stay tuned this week for more analysis of RSO teams and try a league. Use the promotion code RSP20%OFF to earn a 20 percent discount.