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The Gut Check No.292: A Trip to The Thrift Store

Jones-Drew-Maurice

Fantasy football in May is a month dominated by rookie coverage. It’s a good time to hit the thrift store and shop for values on a longer development curve.

 

Thrift stores are awesome. I arrived at this conclusion somewhat late in life. I held the assumption that the items in these stores were someone else’s rejects.

This is both true and false. The close might not have been wanted, but it had nothing to do with quality or even style. Your stubborn Uncle Jake only wears Wrangler jeans and refused to even try on the pair of Lucky’s that his sister in-law gave him for Christmas. Grandpa Kevin liked the Polo sweater, but it was three sizes too big and he didn’t want to make a fuss about it on his Birthday. Or, your Cousin Rick would have put that dress shirt you got at the men’s shop to good use if he hadn’t decided to cash in his chips as partner of an accounting firm and join the park service as a tour guide.

Fantasy football has a similar dynamic. Rookies are the rage from February through August. Everyone wants to find the first-year players who will have an immediate impact. But fantasy owners often forget about the young veterans who didn’t play well–or even play at all–as rookies. Some owners even write off these second, third, or fourth-year players developing on a slower learning curve or stuck behind a crowded depth chart.

This week, I’m checking in with these players. We can categorize them in four ways:

  1. Emerging – Talents likely to contribute or start this year.
  2. Progressing – Players who still appear on track to become starters or contributors within a year or two.
  3. Covered – Personnel with talent, but stuck on crowded depth charts.
  4. Crossroads – Prospects who might be in make or break seasons in the NFL.

Remember, you don’t always have to buy when you shop. Even if you don’t invest in any of these players, it’s a good idea to monitor their progress and research them during the spring and summer. The earlier become conversant with the potential of backups, the sooner you’ll be able to anticipate and react to changes on the fantasy landscape.

Say Drew Brees suffers a shoulder sprain in practice in mid-October. You could wait until Friday to read the first article sharing basics about Griffin that probably took longer for the writer to write than it would take for you to Google. By then, you might have lost a shot at Griffin in a league with a first come, first serve waiver wire.

Or you could have been aware of Griffin this summer, made it a point to watch him in the preseason, and knew right away to add the Saints’ backup so you could either use him or trade him. Fantasy football has a more level playing field thanks to our ever evolving technology. However, it still takes effort to read the right things and with enough advanced notice to plan ahead.

Reading about these young players provides a foundation of knowledge to build on when training camp and preseason games begin. As everyone else is still learning about the talent, whether its buying or selling them, you’re already making moves with the pieces to your advantage.

Read the rest at Footballguys.com

Mike Glennon Preview

Is QB Mike Glennon a draft-not-to-lose pick? If he goes in the first two rounds, I think so. Photo by Akulawolf.
Is QB Mike Glennon a draft-not-to-lose pick? If he goes in the first two rounds, I think so. Photo by Akulawolf.

I’m cautiously optimistic about Mike Glennon’s game thus far. He’s making sound decisions for the Buccaneers and when under heavy pressure, he’s doing a better job of throwing the ball away or taking the sack rather than throwing the ball up for grabs. However, the reason Glennon is performing so well is the team doing a great job of its play calling and giving the rookie time to make decisions at relaxed pace compared to many NFL passers. In essence the Buccaneers are a great fit for a play-not-to-lose style. Here’s a taste of the breakdown of Mike Glennon and why he’s been successful this season. The rest you can read as a Footballguys subscriber.

Why Mike Glennon Is Succeeding

I’m cautiously optimistic about Mike Glennon’s game thus far. He’s making sound decisions for the Buccaneers and when under heavy pressure, he’s doing a better job of throwing the ball away or taking the sack rather than throwing the ball up for grabs. However, the reason Glennon is performing so well is the team doing a great job of its play calling and giving the rookie time to make decisions at relaxed pace compared to many NFL passers.

Greg Cosell made headlines about saying Glennon was ahead of Robert Griffin III in his development, but it’s really no surprise. Griffin is playing in an offense that makes far different demands than the traditional pocket game that Glennon has always used and without a summer of practice, Griffin’s development has stalled a year.

The combination of the pass protection, play action game, and smart play calls according to down and distance are helping Glennon use his big arm and decent mobility. Yet, I don’t want to downplay Glennon. If he can continue to make smart decisions during the next 2-3 seasons of his development, he has shown enough for the Buccaneers to invest in him as a long-term starter.

The pervading theme for Glennon is time and space. Give the rookie these two resources and he has the basic skills – and a fine arm – to move an offense. Here’s a 3rd-and-six pass where the Buccaneers begin in an 10 personnel 3×1 receiver set and shift running back Brian Leonard to the trips side tight to the formation. The aim is to flood the Lions’ zone, create a breakdown in coverage, and generate a wide-open receiver.

The offensive line does a fine job of keeping the pocket clean and providing a great deal of space for Glennon to survey the field and step into any throw.

This is not the kind of pocket space we’re typically seeing in Washington or locales like Jacksonville or Pittsburgh. Give a quarterback this much space and he better find an open receiver or at least make a pinpoint throw to lead a receiver to open space.

The amount of time that the Tampa offensive line provides Glennon on this play allows the rookie quarterback to wait for Tim Wright, the rookie tight end, to finish his stem and break on a deeper in route. Wright, a slow possession receiver at Rutgers, has average speed for a move tight end.

Note the room Glennon has to step into this throw. No defender is in Glennon’s path to force the quarterback to alter his stride and follow-through. Plus, there’s a huge passing lane in the middle of the line for the quarterback to deliver the ball.

It’s a picture-perfect delivery that looks like something seen at a football practice, not an NFL pocket. The pass travels 21 yards on a rope to Wright.

The Gut Check No.279 – Assessing the Quarter Pole of the Fantasy Season

Would you ride or die this season with Wilson? Andrew Brown out. Photo by Football Schedule.
Would you ride or die this season with Wilson? Andrew Brown out. Photo by Football Schedule.

Leave at the curb? Wait a few more miles? Ride or die? Which call should you make with these worrisome players? Matt Waldman scouts the fantasy football landscape at the season’s quarter pole.

Stranded With Bramel: A true Story

This week’s Gut Check begins with a true story (except for one name change – and it’s not the car) that may not seem like it has anything to do with fantasy football, but I promise it does. Stay with me here. It will all be clear soon enough.

Whether it’s a new destination or an old familiar place, there’s nothing more fun than a road trip with friends. Even a familiar journey can present the unexpected. Sometimes these unforeseen events will force its traveler’s to make difficult choices. Take this year’s Senior Bowl trip with Jene Bramel.

Last January was the good doctor’s second trip to Mobile, Alabama to cover the all-star game’s practices with me and Cecil Lammey for the New York Times, the Rookie Scouting Portfolio, and Lammey’s ESPN affiliate. Usually, I pick up everyone at the Atlanta airport and I drive the team to Mobile. Lammey had to make other plans this year so it was Jene and I making the drive.

I’ve been chauffeuring the crew to Mobile and around town for the past five years. Despite odd stories like late-night scavenger hunts for reliable wireless that once led us to an empty Hooter’s parking lot after hours just to file those New York Times practice reports, it has always been an easy gig to be the driver. Even so I had the feeling I should consider renting an SUV last year.

The reason is that I bought a used Prius six months earlier. It works great around town and I even drove it to Memphis without issue on a summer trip with Alicia. However, it’s the Tashard Choice of cars: It’s small, it lacks acceleration, and no one’s really comfortable with the idea of having it carry the offense.

My particular Prius also has two quirks. One is that it has a name. Alicia likes to name machines. I think it’s a backwoods way of respecting the tools you’re fortunate to acquire. We call him Pete.

Pete’s other quirk is his gas gauge. While it’s cool that he gets me 46-50 miles to the gallon on a routine basis, Pete’s gauge doesn’t make a gradual drop from full to empty as you drive him. Instead, Pete will act like he still has a full tank for at least 500 miles. Then with 3-5 miles of gas left in the tank, he drops the gauge to one square above empty.

Imagine Tashard Choice getting 20 touches, looking like he’s capable of 25 more, and at touch number 22 he has a narcoleptic episode just as the ball arrives during the exchange on a toss sweep. While I knew Pete’s gauge wasn’t reliable, I track the odometer well enough to hit the gas station with at least 25-30 miles to spare. But on this Sunday afternoon in the middle of Alabama countryside, Pete conked out on Bamel and me two miles from the nearest exit.

Lot’s of decisions to make at this point: Call USAA? Call a wrecker? Walk to the exit? Go together?

My decision? Leave the northern guy in the deep south on the side of the road (sorry, Jen) to watch the car while I take off running for the exit. A quarter-mile down the road, a car with a trailer pulls to the shoulder waiting for me, windows open, blaring Styx’s “Renegade”.

Countryside. Car out of gas. Stranger offering ride in vehicle blaring song about impending death. It’s a cliche moment of a horror flick.

“I saw your car by the side of the road do you need a ride?” shouts the man over the music. He’s no more than five years older than I am, fit, weekend stubble, looks a little nervous as he’s also sizing me up. Good sign. Another good sign? A sudden wave of panic registers across his face when he realizes that not only is the radio still on, but he’s about to offer a ride to a stranger with Hangman coming down from the gallows and I don’t have very long blasting from his speakers.

“Yep. Ran out of gas. I just need to get to the next exit. What’s your name?” I ask as he tells me his name is Rick. My brain is saying this isn’t a good idea, but my gut is telling me everything’s cool. Still my brain needs a hedge. “Yeah, we’re on assignment with the New York Times for the Senior Bowl in Mobile. They’re expecting us to meet the rest of the team and file a report tonight. What do you do, Rick?”

Rick’s face softens a bit and he looks more relaxed. Meanwhile my cell phone is buzzing in my pocket.

“The Senior Bowl, huh? Good deal. I’m an ER nurse,” Rick says, explaining that it’s his day off and he’s getting ready to do some work on the house. “Was just coming back from Lowe’s when I spotted your car and your friend on the side of the road.”

I get in the car and five minutes later we’re at the only gas station in a 10-15 mile radius and they don’t have a gas canister. I buy two large jugs of distilled water, empty them in front of the gas pump, fill them with fuel in front of the state trooper who does nothing, and we head back for the car. However, we have to drive another three miles past the car because his trailer won’t navigate the median on a U-Turn.

This of course elicits another round of cell phone buzzing as we pass Bramel sitting in the sun with his iPad in the grass as he watches us pass him. We make it to Pete. I introduce the doc to the nurse, they talk shop as I fill the car and make sure it starts, we thank Rick, and we’re on our way.

In the car and on our way, Bramel and I have a few realizations. First, I’m an idiot. Not only do I leave Bramel stranded roadside without a key to the car when we have a chance to call USAA and perhaps have to wait a half-hour longer for a ride to the gas station, but I risk never being seen again after entering a car that’s too far away for Bramel to make out.

Second, I at least had some shred of common sense to invoke our affiliation with the world’s most recognized newspaper so our driver is on notice that we’ll be missed if we go missing. Third, I luck out that the driver is a good guy; an ER nurse who was equally unsure about offering a ride to a 40-something dude with a five days of scruff and sporting sunglasses and a Beast Mode t-shirt.

What does this have to do with worrisome players? First, most of you have at least one player making you feel like an idiot after the first three weeks of the season. Second, you at least have some shred of common sense or intuition about how to handle it. Third, you lucked out that I’m not playing Renegade as I write this article.

Fourth, you need to figure out if each player in this week’s Gut Check is someone you should leave at the curb, hang in there for a few more miles, or decide you’re going to ride or die with them. I’m stating my case for each but remember I’m the same guy ran out of gas in a Prius, left Jene Bramel stranded, didn’t answer my cell phone, and took a ride from a stranger.

Of course, I’m here to tell you about it which should tell you I’m either good or I’m lucky. At this point, does it matter which one it is? I didn’t think so. Let’s get started.

Leave At the Curb: Too Risky

RB Stevan RidleyIt’s not the 3.4 yards per carry or the ball security issues that have me worried about Ridley. He’s still a tough runner with burst. It’s the one reception for eight yards in three games versus Brandon Bolden‘s five catches in one week. The Patriots don’t use him in the passing game. Bolden’s 49 yards on 5 receptions is just 2 yards and 1 reception fewer than Ridley’s 2012 receiving total.

Granted, Ridley was the No.10 fantasy runner last year with that paltry total. However, Bolden ate into Ridley’s time when he was healthy last year and Vereen also battled health issues.

Read the rest at Footballguys.com

The One Trade Advice Article You Need to Read

There are a fair share of Jimmy Graham-sized targets in this draft, but as I finish up my rankings, only a few have a ceiling that is even in the neighborhood of the Saint. Photo by Football Schedule.
The art of the deal is a huge part of fantasy football that is not explored in depth by writers. I’m tackling in this week’s Gut Check at Footballguys. Here’s a taste. Photo by Football Schedule.

I have written close to 500 articles about fantasy football. This is the one I’m most confident will make you a better fantasy owner. It might be the best thing I’ve learned as a fantasy owner in years. Ironically, the person who provided me the majority of this knowledge has no experience playing fantasy football. 

In nearly 20 years of writing about this hobby, I’ve never read a good article that discusses how to become better at making trades. I’m sure there are some, but not in the circles I’ve traveled as a fantasy writer (and it’s a pretty broad circle). I broached the topic with Sigmund Bloom this afternoon when he called me to share his rant against trading Michael Vick.

Bloom agreed he hasn’t seen any quality articles about the strategies behind making deals. He proposed we collaborate one night on the subject. A trained lawyer, Bloom has some good negotiation skills. I also have some chops of my own as a former salesman (when I actually try). However, the best negotiator I know is my wife, Alicia.

Those of you who read me regularly know by now that when I invoke my wife’s name in writing 99 percent of the time it is for comic relief. Today is that one percent exception. Alicia is a corporate buyer. With millions of dollars of spend under her responsibility, she negotiates for a living with Fortune 100 companies. Her negotiation style is also regarded as rare in the field because she’s adept at several styles rather than relying on just one.

Some of my best friends have benefited from her negotiation advice in recent years. It inspired me to attempt to write this article this summer, but I just didn’t have enough perspective to translate her knowledge to fantasy football. I wasn’t asking her the right questions. The combination of Bloom’s initial topic, my wife’s knowledge, and some information I acquired just a few days ago while covering a non-football story at my day job helped me figure out the right questions to ask.

I haven’t been a good trade negotiator in fantasy football. Some who got the worse end of deals with me might disagree, but they’re looking at the art of the deal the wrong way.

I’m lucky when I get time to assess my collective free agent pools for 30 minutes a week. I’m in too many leagues and I’m likely to be giving notice in half of them this spring. I want to have time to analyze my league’s market and negotiate on behalf of my teams.

This year I’ve already accepted and turned down two deals I shouldn’t have in dynasty leagues. The reason is I never had a clear understanding of good negotiation tactics and what is required to cultivate them.

Until now.

Part I: Adopt A Negotiator’s Mindset

There are three fundamental things you have to internalize as a fantasy owner if you want to become good at the art of the deal:

1. You need to know the spectrum of players you want and the spectrum of players you’re willing to give away.

2. You need to have real commitment to your limits and be willing to lose.

3. You need to evaluate your skills at trade negotiation more by the process and less by the end result.   

If you don’t approach negotiations with these three steps, you are are doing no better than searching for the next bandage to cover the wound in need of surgery. The best way to begin is to take these three steps and work backwards.

Be Process Oriented More Than Results-Oriented And The Results Will Come

Becoming a good negotiator is a process. You have to be mindful of the steps and begin looking at the deal with perspective. Diplomats and business people call it vision; con artists call it the long con. It’s the same skill applied in different spheres. 

Good negotiators understand that they will win and lose deals, but one of the best characteristics of a winning negotiator is that the person is easy to work with. In fantasy football this means you have to engage people and keep them interested in working with you. It’s a quality you have to develop with every potential deal. Even if a trade doesn’t come to fruition or a deal backfires for you or your trade partner, the way you conducted the negotiations will make that person return to you for future deals. 

For the rest, subscribe to Footballguys.com

This is ultimately what you want.

2013 Fantasy Soundtracks

Team Riddle selects Rob Gronkowski to lead off his draft. Photo by JDN.
Lamont Sanford to Sinead O’Connor? Keep reading… Photo by JDN.

Intro

Bloom and I not only grew up as the original members of the MTV Generation, but we were also the first audience of the summer movie blockbuster. From an early age it has been ingrained in us that music is a part of the story line of our lives. If you’re one of us who remembers things like Poison Arrow, Fish Heads, Headbanger’s Ball, and Martha’s Muffin, then you also remember making mixed tapes for your friends – especially girlfriends.

I was a musician in a previous life. In college I used to watch Raiders’ games with my roommate’s synthesizer at the edge of the couch so I could play sound effects of bombs dropping whenever James Jett went deep:

[youtube=http://youtu.be/y6EU_l06GwM]

Bloom lived a soundtrack as a Phishhead. Put the two of us together and it’s only a matter of time before we have to inject music into the football conversation. It only made sense that our 2013 season preview would be a soundtrack and mixed tape set to YouTube videos.

However, Einstein is the only video you’re going to see on this post due to account rights with YouTube that prevent us from embedding music here. Still, we’re providing links to each song and they will open in a separate window so you can have a soundtrack as you read our takes on players and their outlook for the year. This is us blowing off steam with two mixed tapes.

Album I, Side A: “It’s always Tease, Tease, Tease” [The Clash]

Should I stay or should I go now? . . . Should I stay or should I go now? . . . If I go there will be trouble . . . An if I stay it will be double . . . Come on and let me know . . . Should I cool it or should I blow?

Who better than the Clash to sum up the angst fantasy owners feel about so many players? They draw us in with talent so seductive and intoxicating that we stick around even after getting burned. Yet even as the logic of giving them another try wears thin, the promise of “what could be” is almost too great to resist – even when you know better.

It seems you always find yourself staring at their name on draft day and wishing you knew what to do. Bloom and I would love to intervene, but we’re too busy exorcising our own player-demons or giving it one more chance with the hope we’re not crying in our beer in December.

(Bloom) Track 1: QB Josh Freeman – My Minds Got a Mind Of Its Own  [phish]

Maybe it’s his mechanics. Maybe it’s that he was in a new system. Maybe it’s his unwillingness to rely on his legs as often as he did earlier in his career. Or, maybe Josh Freeman is just as baffled by his inconsistent play as we are. His mind prompts him to make throws that are incomprehensible. Last year, he looked like a QB1 until he cratered with eight interceptions in the all-important weeks 15 and 16. Think twice before you add Freeman this year.

(Waldman) Track 2: RB Maurice Jones-Drew –  We Had Joy, We had Fun . . .  [terry Jacks]

He was a huge reason I won my first experts’ league. Using a Studs and Duds strategy, winning Jones-Drew’s services for a mere $1 was the bargain of all bargains. Watching him duel with Chris Johnson a few years ago was one of the most fun showcases of two running backs in a game that I have ever seen. The Jaguars’ little teapot has been an RB1 for most of his seven-year career and a cornerstone for many fantasy champions. Despite averaging at least 4.7 yards per carry the past two seasons, the familiar tug to get on board the S.S. Jones-Drew is there but my feet won’t leave the dock – even at a bargain price as the 23rd pick/RB15.

But he has taken a pounding and without a proven quarterback to keep defenses from crowding the line of scrimmage and daring the Jaguars to throw, I’d rather be a year too early than a year too late. Terry Jacks says it best: “Good-bye my friend it’s hard to die when all the birds are singing in the sky . . . but the hills that we climbed were just seasons out of time.”

(Bloom) Track 3: RB Darren McFaddenWon’t Get Fooled Again [The who]

Keep your “contract year” and “zone blocking scheme was holding him back” arguments. Oakland’s offense looks like a dumpster-fire without left tackle Jared Veldheer for a good part of the season. Matt Flynn is a backup quarterback and Terrelle Pryor isn’t even a backup-quality passer. Even if McFadden had a spotless durability record, it would be tough to like him this year.

(Waldman) Track 4: RB Ryan MathewsCold Shot [Stevie Ray Vaughan]

Mathews isn’t just singing this song to fantasy owners; he’s belting the lyrics to a standing room only audience in his locker room. The Fresno State runner is a borderline rare talent. If you’ve truly seen Mathews at his best then you know what I mean: exploits small creases, makes adroit cuts that kill defenders’ angles, a third gear to outrun corners, and rare balance against hits from first-level defenders.  It’s one thing to lower the pads and truck a defender straight-on; it’s a completely different story when a defensive lineman with a good angle and plenty of steam gets his pads into the side of a running back’s thigh and slides off like butter on a hot skillet tilted sideways.

I saw Mathews do this enough times that I thought I was in this fantasy football relationship for the long haul. But the rare skills couched in boneheaded acts of immaturity has reached the point that I can’t make any more excuses. It doesn’t help that Danny Woodhead (DANNY WOODHEAD?!!!) is the player the Chargers are relying on as much as Mathews. It shows just how far this once-promising fantasy situation has gone down the tubes.

Mathews says his NFL career to this point as merely been “average” and while I like the attempt at honesty, the fact that he can’t bring himself to say his career has been below average to his first-round expectations tells me that he’s still in denial about not only what he has done, but he truly doesn’t realize how good he can be. If he doesn’t believe in himself, then how can I?

I still want to believe because I see glimpses every week he plays. But by game’s end, watching him is a cold shot.

(Bloom) Mathews Alternate take:  It Ain’t No Use [Stevie Wonder]

Mathews may be looking good in camp and the preseason, but it ain’t no use. I’m done – at least while he’s running behind maybe the worst offensive line in the league. The new regime doesn’t have the draft pick or emotional investment in Mathews and you shouldn’t, either. I’m not saying that Mathews won’t have some big plays and games, but he’ll also frustrate with injuries and lost games as the Chargers struggle.

Read the rest at Footballguys

The Gut Check No. 274 – Upside Down From The 12-Spot

Clayton Gray is 23-3 when he hasn't drafted a RB before round 5. Helllooo Demayrius. Photo by Jeffery Beall.
Clayton Gray is 23-3 when he hasn’t drafted a RB before round 5. Helllooo Demaryius. Photo by Jeffery Beall.

Are you Down With . . .

The other night, Footballguys’ Manager Clayton Gray emailed me his satirical paean to Naughty By Nature and the Upside Down Strategy with a link to the team he drafted in the 2013 Huddle Experts’ League.

Gray, who won the league in 2012, told me he is 23-3 the past two years and hasn’t drafted a running back before the fifth round.

Early round running backs are like pacifiers to some fantasy owners. But the illusion of playing it safe rarely creates exceptional results. There’s only one winner in fantasy football, and I know owners – whether they know it or not – who draft like their primary goal is to make the playoffs. In fact, I’d argue most of us do.

The primary motivation is to build a team good enough to earn a playoff spot. Then as the playoffs get closer, focus on refining that roster to contend for a championship. I think the underlying thought is to make the playoffs so you don’t look like a bad fantasy football player.

And that’s playing it safe.

Football fans who play fantasy football absorb the same mentality that NFL teams have: you’re great if you win a championship; you’re very good if you go to the championship; you’re good if you make the playoffs; and you’re not good if you miss the playoffs.

It doesn’t help that most fantasy leagues award money for making the playoffs or scoring the most points. This is an incentive to be good, but not great; play it safe, but don’t go for greatness; and win, but only if you don’t have to risk losing big.

It’s not a popular line of thought, but there’s truth in those words.

In a year where the pervading thought is to take running backs early, acquire a stud tight end, and wait on quarterbacks and wide receivers, the radical approach is to acquire the best non-runners for your starting lineup and use the middle and late rounds to acquire a block of runners for your roster. The fundamental reason for this approach’s efficacy is the short career span, high rate of injury, and fairly high turnover within the top-12 and top-24 rankings of running backs from one year to the next. I call this the Upside Down Draft Strategy. You can find details here.

Most of you already get the gist of this strategy. You’re here to find out which middle and late-round runners I’m touting for your drafts this month. I’m writing three articles to profile these backs within the context of walking you through multiple Upside Down Draft plans – the first one at the early turn (1st overall pick); the second with a middle pick (6th spot); and the final strategy at the turn (12th spot) – so you can see how it all fits together.

I think this strategy is best-suited for the following league formats:

  • PPR leagues with lineups of 1QB/2RBs/3WR/1TE.
  • PPR leagues with lineups as above, but with a flex at RB, WR, or TE.
  • Premium PPR leagues with 1.5 points for TE and a flex at RB, WR, or TE.
  • Non-PPR leagues with 1QB/2RB/4WR/1TE and a flex at RB, WR, or TE.

Gray’s team has Calvin Johnson, Demaryius Thomas, and Julio Jones and got these three receivers drafting from the 1.02 spot. Today we’re looking at options from the opposite turn.

Read the rest here at Footballguys.com. Haven’t subscribed? Here’s 13 reasons.

The Gut Check No.272 – Upside Down Strategy Update

Lacy is prime candidate for Upside Down drafts. Photo by Mike Pettigano.
Lacy is a prime candidate for Upside Down drafts. Photo by Mike Pettigano.

The Upside Down Strategy is not my own; it’s simply one of several methods I write about. Still, many of my readers – including two FPPC winners – have credited it for helping them build exceptional rosters in a high-stakes format and even a counter-terrorism expert has told me the basic philosophy that “once something becomes conventional, it’s no longer safe,” is something he relates to with his investigative work as well as his new-found success with fantasy teams. 

At the day job, I interviewed an exec running one of the bigger number-crunching outfits on Madison Avenue. Although his firm didn’t do the work, he heads up a team with the type of skill sets that helped a company like Target eerily predict pregnancy based on shopping habits. We talked about analytics – even touching on the stats movement in football.

This man has extensive training with statistical modeling, but what he told me is that his fellow “quants” often fail to generate insights that make a difference in their respective businesses because of the way they use data. His criticism is that the quants use a lot of binary calculations and the results validate safe decision-making.

Decision-making too safe for running a business where the mission is to win customers’ eyeballs, hearts, and wallets with ad campaigns.

He was speaking my language when he elaborated that playing it safe rarely creates exceptional results. There’s only one winner in fantasy football, but I know owners – whether they know it or not – who draft like their primary goal is to make the playoffs. In fact, I’d argue most of us do.

The primary motivation is to build a team good enough to earn a playoff spot. Then as the playoffs get closer, focus on refining that roster to contend for a championship. I think the underlying thought is to make the playoffs so you don’t look like a bad fantasy football player.

Football fans who play fantasy football absorb the same mentality that NFL teams have: you’re great if you win a championship; you’re very good if you go to the championship; you’re good if you make the playoffs; and you’re not good if you miss the playoffs.

It doesn’t help that most fantasy leagues award money for making the playoffs or scoring the most points. This is an incentive to be good, but not great; play it safe, but don’t go for greatness; and win, but only if you don’t have to risk losing big.

It’s not a popular line of thought, but there’s truth in those words.

In a year where the pervading thought is to take running backs early, acquire a stud tight end, and wait on quarterbacks and wide receivers, the radical approach is to acquire the best non-runners for your starting lineup and use the middle and late rounds to acquire a huge block of runners for your roster. The fundamental reason for this approach’s efficacy is the short career span, high rate of injury, and fairly high turnover within the top-12 and top-24 rankings of running backs from one year to the next. I call this the Upside Down Draft Strategy. You can find details here.

Most of you already get the gist of this strategy. You’re here to find out which middle and late-round runners I’m touting for your drafts this month. I’m writing three articles to profile these backs within the context of walking you through multiple Upside Down Draft plans – the first one at the early turn (1st overall pick); the second with a middle pick (6th spot); and the final strategy at the turn (12th spot) – so you can see how it all fits together.

I think this strategy is best-suited for the following league formats:

  • PPR leagues with lineups of 1QB/2RBs/3WR/1TE.
  • PPR leagues with lineups as above, but with a flex at RB, WR, or TE.
  • Premium PPR leagues with 1.5 points for TE and a flex at RB, WR, or TE.
  • Non-PPR leagues with 1QB/2RB/4WR/1TE and a flex at RB, WR, or TE.

The example below is for a 12-team league.  

For the rest log into Footballguys.com.

If you aren’t a Footballguys subscriber, you’re missing one of the best-quality fantasy sites in the business. Let me put it to you this way: Last year, I had the top preseason rankings for QBs and No. 8 overall for WRs among over 100 fantasy writers, but that’s just par for the course compared to the rest of our staff. Check out the Multi-Year Scores and you’ll see the likes of David Dodds and Bob Henry at the top; Sigmund Bloom, Jason Wood, and Jeff Hasely aren’t far behind; and there’s also Jeff Tefertiller and Mark Wimer.

We’re packed with quality staffers who work as a great team to produce content like these Training Camp Reports.  Combine this content with the Magazine Draft Apps (iPhone and Android), and affiliations with FanDuel, and you’ll love what Footballguys can do for you. 

Not sure? Get our free daily email updates and you will be. 

Fantasy Football Magazine of the Future

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Last week, I compared joining the staff of Footballguys to being the new kid in a neighborhood pickup game. If that’s the case, then veteran staff writer Jason Wood is that kid in the group who is friendly, but isn’t taking everything he sees at face value. All your new-found friends may have bought into the what you showed them on the sand lot in the first game, but Wood’s going to need a few games before he gives his take.

Although he doesn’t have to be the leader, he’s more than capable. He’s the valuable teammate who will give it to you straight if you ask, but he’ll do what’s best for the group. It also means he’s not prone to empty praise and he’s a good barometer for gauging whether people, ideas, and projects are going to cut it.

So when he wrote this email to our staff this morning about the Footballguys Magazine Draft Kit App, I decided it was worth sharing with more than just our internal staff email.

Guys,

Most of you know I’m not generally prone to hyperbole, so please understand that when I say I am FLOORED by the magazine, I mean it. It’s astoundingly impressive. In looking through it this morning, it gave me the same sense of wonderment and excitement I got the first time I cracked open the FF Index magazine back in the day and KNEW that I had an edge over most of my league. It’s the same sense of elation I got the first time I discovered the Mr. Football site or stumbled into our old old old school message boards and struck up intense debates with folks…KNOWING that this was going to make me a better fantasy owner.
Such an impressive effort. It will be an absolute shame if this isn’t THE talk of this fantasy football season.
Awesome efforts on the tech front, and also well done to all my fellow writers who pulled together such fantastic content.
Woodrow
I have to agree with him. Here’s a taste of what to expect from this magazine with content that will stay updated throughout the preseason. In fact, look at the screen shot at the top of the post and you’ll see content that’s from around the web. Yes, we aggregate what’s worth reading outside the confines of Footballguys.com.

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You like rankings? How about ADP? What about VBD? It’s all conveniently formatted above with great color-coded team abbreviations and a way to add specific players of note to a personal watch list on the app. How awesome is that?

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Do you want to track your drafts? You can do this in the magazine. Nothing like an all-in-one information source and draft day tool kit.

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Filter rankings according to your preferred Footballguys staff. View depth charts, top 300 lists and explore our player database.

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Just like the Rookie Scouting Portfolio, what you get from the Footballguys Magazine Draft Kit far exceeds its value (just $4.99). If you aren’t a Footballguys subscriber and want taste of what the site has to offer you as a fantasy owner,  this is a great way to start.

I love magazines and holding printed material in my hands, but if you want content that doesn’t die as the pages fade or dog-eared, this is the way to go. You can download it here.

Footballguys: Reinventing My Dynasty Philosophy

How should be invest in quarterbacks for dynasty leagues? Was the 2012 class en exception to the rule? Photo by Football Schedule.
How should we invest in quarterbacks for dynasty leagues? Was the 2012 class en exception to the rule? Photo by Football Schedule.

I’m taking a hiatus from dynasty rankings to reassess my philosophies about managing teams in these leagues. This week, I’m examining quarterback data through the lens of something I call career windows. I define career windows as a three-year period in a player’s career because that span of time is known as the average career length of an NFL player.

When we draft players we believe will be viable fantasy contributors, I think we have the expectation that their careers will have more than three years of starter production. Many players have careers three to five times longer than the average.

I think we assess a player’s talent and situation every year, but I like the idea of have some longer perspective about players at each position. I want to know the lay of the land:

  • If and how long I can expect to get starter productivity from players at each position.
  • How does a player’s draft status fit into the scope of these career windows?
  • Are there any basic ideas I can draw from quarterback careers to help me create a basic philosophy for rankings and ranking adjustments in dynasty leagues?

What I hope to gain from these exercises is a set of basic ideas that help me understand when I’m going with or against the grain and to make those decisions with awareness of the dynamics at play.

Tiers Defined

First, I need to establish how I define the categories I use for the position when talking about its fantasy production. Most of you are familiar with how these terms are defined, but I still need to cover my bases. I’m using a 12-team league as the standard for these tiers.

  • Elite – In my view, these are the three most productive productive quarterbacks in a given season.
  • No.1 QB (or QB1) – The 12 most productive quarterbacks in a given season.
  • No. 2 QB (or QB2) – The 13th through 24th quarterbacks. First-tier reserves with potential for playing time on your roster.
  • Bench – The 25th through 36th quarterbacks. Depth for your roster – some developmental; others emergency only.
  • FA (Free Agents) – Quarterbacks lacking talent, situation, and/or opportunity to prouduce in the present.

These tiers are general estimates. There are some years where four quarterbacks post elite-level fantasy production and others where only one makes the cut. I’m not using fantasy points to drive tiers because the point values have changed – especially at the quarterback position – in just 20 years. Chase Stuart posted a graph of this change, but using VBD as a more refined data point.

Here’s what the 20-year change looks like through the lens of quarterback tiers (Read the rest at Footballguys.com)