Posts tagged Matt Stafford

Revis vs. Megatron: The Winning Strategy of Turning an Island Into A Peninsula

I can’t wait for the day that Darrelle Revis’ knee is at full strength so he can reprise Revis Island against any receiver. His assignment on Calvin Johnson reveals that he’s not there yet. However, his performance on Sunday is a story of a great football player with new physical limitations and his coaching staff making adjustments to win the war against one of these most dangerous pitch-and-catch combos in the NFL.

The opening narrative is a first half where we see our hero and his team forced to concede that (at this moment in the NFL) no man is an island. No press man for Revis against Johnson here. If anything, this slant off play action is a good illustration of why we all drool over elite offensive athletes.  Get a cannon-armed quarterback who can throw the ball with laser precision to a gigantic receiver with track star speed and there are some routes just impossible for even the best cornerbacks in football to defend if the offense draws them up right.

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Revis in off coverage is in position to read Matt Stafford and then accordingly. Based on the position of the safety on this play, it appears Tampa is anticipating a run or a short route and Detroit’s pistol look adds to that speculation. At the snap below, Revis eye-balls Stafford as Johnson drives off the line.

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Ever the great technician, Johnson’s release has the look of a player running a deep streak rather than a slant. His shoulders are over his knees and he’s pumping his arms like a sprinter in the drive phase at the start of the race. Imagine being a rookie and watching Johnson coming at you like this. Even with an understanding of offensive tendencies, it would be difficult not to see Johnson driving off the line and wet your pants.

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Revis holds his water like the old pro he is. He’s more concerned with a potential exchange with Stafford and Reggie Bush. Once Stafford emerges from the exchange point with the ball, Revis knows it’s time to act.

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However, the play action fake affords Johnson enough time that Revis is already too late. The Buccaneers defender would have to anticipate this throw and already be driving to the break point to cut off Johnson. Even that early of a break presents a quandary for Revis, because Johnson and Stafford could read the corner’s early jump and turn the route up the sideline. While doubtful that they make this adjustment, the precision of this short route can force a lesser defender to take a wild chance and create this kind of big-play opportunity.

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Revis drives on the route with an initial angle that looks promising. But as physical as the Buccaneers corner has been throughout his career, he’s at a disadvantage here.

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The pass is on-time and hits Johnson in stride. The receiver does a find job of keeping his back Revis to shield the ball and force the corner to rebound off Megatron like a fly hitting a windshield.

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Johnson doesn’t even break stride as Revis is eating turf.

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Revis can only look on from the ground as Johnson gains 18 yards, turning a 1st and 20 into a 2nd and 2.

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Take heart Revis, the safety takes a five-yard ride on the back of the Lions’ receiver.

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In fact, he’s lucky there’s help over top or Johnson recovers his balance and turns this 18-yard gain into a something much longer.  It’s the type of play that Lions used to set up Revis later in the quarter for a longer target. There’s no play action here, but Johnson takes a jab step inside to simulate a slant with the hope Revis biting just enough that once Johnson breaks up the sideline Revis will have to turn and run, giving Johnson room to break back to the ball on a short route.

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Here’s the initial dip inside from Johnson.

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While I can’t see Revis’ initial reaction, it’s doubtful a corner playing off man coverage is giving seven yards of space to his receiver 12 yards down field. This is Revis recovering his bearings and breaking back to the receiver. Revis’ explosiveness and change of direction is good enough to start, but not yet good enough to hang with the likes of Johnson. Fortunately, the Buccaneers make an adjustment that turns the tide of this tightly contested game in the fourth quarter.

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The difference? The Buccaneers take Revis off Johnson and land-lock the new corner with a safety over top. The Lions decide to test this coverage with a skinny post to Johnson.

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Johnson takes an inside release, but the corner also slides inside and gives chase in a trail position knowing that he has the safety over top.

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When the corner jumps inside, he gives Johnson a little resistance to stall the break inside and help the safety gain position over top. It has a feel of Cover 2, but the corner doesn’t just pass Johnson off to the safety.

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The Bucs’ corner continues down field and then breaks inside to undercut Stafford’s throw.

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The corner tips the pass over the outstretched Johnson and forces a 3rd and 11. It foreshadows a game-sealing play with the same coverage with less than a minute left. Once again, this corner is tight at the line with a safety over top and he influences Johnson’s release to the inside.

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The corner bumps Johnson inside and rides the receiver up the seam for the first 10-15 yards before Johnson earns enough separation – which he know doesn’t have to be much – for Stafford to target his receiver.

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Let’s focus on Stafford for a moment here. If he hangs onto the football another half-second, Adrian Clayborn, who has been difficult to contain for much of his game, delivers a hit.

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The inimitable Lions quarterback delivers the ball while retreating from the pressure in his face and manages to throw a 38-yard strike with excellent placement to Johnson working back to the football.

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Normally, Johnson secures this ball and if he doesn’t score, the Lions have three shots to do so before tying the game and sending it into overtime. However, we are talking about the Detroit Lions. This team’s development is similar to that of a teenager – lots of promise and physical skill at or near its prime, but moments of awkwardness at the most inopportune times.

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Even Johnson isn’t immune as the hit from the safety pops the ball loose and into the corner’s arms like a gift from above.

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Johnson may have won the battle with Revis, but the Buccaneers won the war thanks to an individual and team understanding its limitations in the face of a superior opponent.

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The post-script to his story is Stafford. I have already profiled the Lions quarterback in this blog, but I need to underscore just how unfortunate this talented passer was in this game. It wasn’t just Calvin Johnson’s failure to secure this pass that killed the Lions’ chances to win this game.

Here’s a play-action throw that Stafford puts on the money despite throwing from an unbalanced position. His intended receiver is Kris Durham who is stacked behind his teammate to the right.

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Stafford gives a short sell of the play fake to Joique Bell and begins his drop. Note Adrian Clayborn on the right edge (No.94-long hair).

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Clayborn finishes his drop, scans the field, and nothing is open. Clayborn swats at his defender and works inside.

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Clayborn gets inside position to split two defenders on a path straight to Stafford, who is still holding onto the football three seconds after the snap.

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Stafford feels the pressure, slides right, and delivers the ball 33 yards to the right sideline on a comeback leaning like that ancient building in Rome.

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The placement isn’t perfect, but it’s only where Durham can make the catch – low and away. This is where I want to see quarterbacks err with their accuracy when they do.

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Durham, with a chance to help Detroit extend its lead with at least getting his team into field goal range, cannot maintain possession when he hits the ground. While it’s a difficult reception to make when working back to the passer and dropping to a knee to get under the ball, it’s the type of play NFL receivers make.

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But if you think that’s an unfortunate play, this completion on 3rd and 11 with 5:43 in the fourth quarter rivals the game-losing play by Calvin Johnson. Tampa sends five at Stafford with Durham as the single receiver at the bottom of the screen.

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Detroit gives Stafford a clean pocket as the quarterback locates the single coverage and delivers the deep out to Durham.

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Give Stafford the kind of time that Mike Glennon earned in this game and these plays should be unstoppable.

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This 20-yard deep out is cake for Stafford. It arrives over the receivers inside shoulder and well ahead of the defensive back. The velocity on the pass also ensures that Durham has time and space to get both feet in bounds. This throw and the last play I showed are the type of plays Stafford made at Georgia so often and helped him earn such a high draft day grade.

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Durham, who gains control of the ball early enough inside the boundary, decides to turn the play up field for more yardage. It’s a great call, but note how he carries the ball in the frame below.

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This type of ball security is a bad habit that I’ve seen from many young receivers and it’s a habit that Durham should have broken years ago. New York Giants receiver Jerrell Jernigan was a favorite prospect of many, but one of the things that really bothered me about Jernigan – as fine of a play maker he was at Troy – was that he carried the ball with both hands in front of his stomach like this. I describe it as a player running with the ball like he’s executing the option. Jernigan had far too many fumbles at Troy because of this style of ball security.

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Durham heads up field, but the trailing cornerback takes a desperate swipe at the receiver, finds the ball, and in what seems like the luck of the Lions in recent years, the ball does not bounce out of bounds, but careens towards the flat.

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The Buccaneers field this fumble and preserve its lead, setting up one last drive where Stafford hits Johnson on a beautiful pass only to watch his superstar receiver get victimized on a smash and grab by two rogue seafarers from Tampa.

For more analysis of offensive skill players like this post, download the 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio available April 1. Prepayment is available now. Better yet, if you’re a fantasy owner the 56-page Post-Draft Add-on comes with the 2013 RSP at no additional charge. Best, yet, 10 percent of every sale is donated to Darkness to Light to combat sexual abuse. You can purchase past editions of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio for just $9.95 apiece.

Why Matt Stafford is a Polarizing Quarterback

The Emily Post School of Quarterback Analysts does not approve. Photo by Marianne O'Leary.
The Emily Post School of Quarterback Analysts does not approve. Photo by Marianne O’Leary.

I’m a Matt Stafford fan. If you’re the kind of person who has an anxiety attack if you don’t have your morning coffee in that black mug you bought 12 years ago, then you probably dislike Stafford. If you’re a nitpicking analyst who lacks the perspective to see that numerous small flaws don’t outweigh a significant positive, you probably hate the Lions quarterback. I get it and many of these people are excellent writers with a terrific grasp of the sport.

They still need to stop thinking like the engineers, lawyers, and accountants that they are who write as a sideline.

At least once a week on Twitter, I see a writer slam Stafford for his poor footwork, his unsound throwing form, and his tendency not to follow through with his release in situations where he had a chance. And these Emily Posts of NFL football analysis are accurate with their takes. But are they really seeing the big picture?

They can cite quarterback rating, win-loss record, completion percentage to receivers not named Johnson, and several other points that fit their argument against Stafford ever becoming a top-notch starting quarterback. To be honest, I’m not confident that Stafford will ever take that next step to join the ranks of the very best in the league even if his yardage and touchdown totals might allow fans to make an argument in his favor as his career unfolds.

What is important to mention is that I see a bias among fans and analysts with honorary certificates from the Emily Post Evening School of Quarterback Technique. They’re naturally a paint by numbers crowd. They’ve learned the nuances of the game’s rules, strategies, and techniques, but they’ve failed to maintain an overall perspective beyond the minutiae of these details.

The acceptable model of “good quarterbacking” is still in the spectrum of Matt Ryan. The Falcons quarterback is a paint-by-numbers dream. If prep schools taught quarterbacking the way J. Evans Pritchard’s introduction outlines the proper way to appreciate poetry, Ryan would be within the acceptable range of that formula. Sam Bradford would probably be higher than you think – a player the Emily Post analysts would praise as an under-appreciated passer who has had unfortunate circumstances to begin his career.

However, I think Matt Ryan and Matt Stafford are pretty even as quarterbacks. Most will disagree because they have a bias when it comes to favoring mental acumen and consistency over special physical talent and inventive creativity. I’m among the most guilty of emphasizing the mental-savvy angle over physical talent.

But my message is really about not writing off less physically talented players.  At the same time, you shouldn’t write off players who may lack the refined technique and high-end preparation results in the robotic, J. Evans Pritchard style of play. Lots of folks will tell you that they dislike quarterbacks like Brett Favre, Tim Tebow, Jay Cutler, and Ben Roethlisberger for their off-field behavior. However, I think one of the root issues that isn’t discussed is that they are creative players who err on the side of erratic behavior.

It’s easier to accept the fact that a player like Matt Ryan is going to be a conceptual quarter-bot with limited arm strength, mobility, and creativity when the play breaks down (although he has just enough arm and mobility to have a wide range before his athleticism and inventiveness reach their outer limits) than it is to accept an athlete with an off-the-chart arm and inventiveness like Matt Stafford to experience a brain fart. There’s something more acceptable within our society for our opponent to test our physical limitations than to come undone conceptually.

The Emily Post quarterbacks aren’t risk takers. As a result, their mistakes don’t appear as egregious as the likes of Favre, Roethlisberger, Cutler, or Tebow. These passers are more PR-friendly to fans and personnel directors. They’re either hitting the appropriate marks or the defense put them in situations where they could not physically make the play and the blame is spread among the passer’s teammates and coaches. The risk takers are more likely to have extremes that look like genius on a good day and imbecility on a bad day.

Give Stafford Julio Jones, Roddy White, and Tony Gonzalez, and I think he’d be just as productive as Ryan. He’d have more highs and lows, but I think the overall difference would be minimal. However until recently, Stafford has had one quality weapon compared to Ryan’s three. While we’re quick to show Stafford’s flaws, we’re trying to place a round peg in a square hole.

Stafford is capable of things many quarterbacks can’t do, but it also means his style will generate the types of mistakes that frustrate us because we don’t realize that high-end physical genius requires a risk that can cross the line to recklessness. With the exception of Tom Coughlin, most coaches are more patient with running backs in this sense. Aggressive players like Adrian Peterson or Eric Dickerson fumbled dozens of times during the first three years of their careers, but the coaches continued to go to the well with them. Coughlin, doesn’t want to recognize that David Wilson is a special physical talent whose risk of imbecility is worth the reward of game-changing genius.

Here’s a typical Matt Stafford play that I believe treads the line between genius and imbecility, but something you have to encourage if you’re going to commit to a player of Stafford’s rare physical talent.  It’s a 3rd-and-six pass from a 1×3 receiver, 10 personnel pistol  at the Bengals’ 11 with 3:42 in the first quarter and down by seven.

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On this play, Cincinnati drops seven and rushes four. When at defense has the likes of Carlos Dunlap, Michael Johnson, and a sub like Wallace Gilberry do complement the interior like of Geno Atkins and Domata Peko, it’s a great reason why the Bengals are in first place in the AFC North. This is the same rush-four, drop-seven formula that made the Ravens defense dominant for several years. Seattle’s unit is also approaching this realm of excellence.

Stafford takes the snap and looks deep to short on the trips side as his starting point of his read. This is a good move, considering that the presnap photo above shows that the single receiver has a corner playing outside with a safety over top covering the inside. If the single receiver drew man coverage, Stafford would likely look there first.

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The main player Stafford is seeking is Johnson  deep, but the coverage drop has enough depth that the Lions quarterback has to come off his favorite target. While the other receiver working behind Johnson is breaking open outside, this is not a good choice. The linebacker at the five is in great position to break on the route and the receiver’s break is too shallow to generate a lot of yardage without breaking a tackle. The biggest reason this route isn’t a viable option is Carlos Dunlap generating a push so deep into the pocket that he closes Stafford’s throwing lane outside. If he guns it, the pass will be low enough to deflect. If he lofts it, the linebacker has time to cut it off or break up the receiver’s attempt.

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To compound the difficulty of this situation, Michael Johnson has whipped the left tackle off the edge and it’s impossible for Stafford to climb the pocket without working through contact from the defensive end. While Stafford is a big quarterback, climbing the pocket in this situation is a losing proposition for even the most physically sturdy quarterbacks in the league 95 percent of the time – and I’m being generous. Stafford could try to spin outside the pocket , but if he does this, only Brandon Pettigrew (No.87) is working to the left flat on the cross and the tight end’s path leads directly towards the linebacker and cornerback – not good odds for Stafford, who will have to run at least 10 yards just to reach the line of scrimmage if he opts to tuck the ball and try to gain the first down with his legs.

Stafford knows that his only choice is No.18 Durham on the crossing route under the tight end. Durham gets the benefit of Pettigrew crossing the face of the linebacker at the left hash. With an accurate throw, he can hit Durham on the run  in the direction of he two receivers running off the coverage on the right side of the field. The depth of Durham’s route is enough to earn the first down. This is all diagnosis that J.W. Pritchard would approve. However, look at the position of Johnson and Dunlap when Stafford reaches his third read.

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For most NFL quarterbacks, this is checkmate. Brady, Manning, or Ryan making this play? Forget it. They’re throwing it away for another day. The defense painted them into a corner that they can’t escape. Stafford, Cutler, or Favre back in the day? Different story.

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As maddening as Stafford’s Quisenberry throwing motion can be on plays where he has time to use proper form, this play is a work of art. Stafford not only releases the ball before Johnson wraps him, but from an angle that whizzes past Johnson’s ear hole,  splits the defensive ends, and leads the receiver low and away so he can shield the oncoming defender to make the play.

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Durham makes the grab, turns inside the defender over his back and falls forward to the Cincinnati three for the first down. Three plays later, Stafford hits Pettigrew to tie the game. If you look at the idea methods of throwing the football, field position, down-and-distance, and game situation, the “low-risk” play would have been to throw the ball away or take the sack and kick the field goal. But does it make sense to tell a player not to play to his physical ability because he’s in the top 1 percentile of throwers of a football?

It’s a high-risk play for the average NFL starter, but is it really a high-risk play for a guy like Stafford? Perhaps it still is, but I doubt the Lions drafted Stafford without the realization that he was a creative, risk-taking gunslinger. You make a commitment to a player like Stafford with the willingness to live with the tear-your-hair-out moments. It doesn’t mean you don’t try to limit them, but not at the expense of removing the creativity completely from his game.

Marc Trestman hasn’t killed Jay Cutler’s creativity. By emphasizing the run, focusing on quick reads and short passes, and improving the offensive line, the coach has just limited the situations where Cutler is forced to take as many egregious risks. Even Dan Reeves didn’t completely kill John Elway’s creativity. It may have felt that way to Elway, who had the shackles on him via Sammy Winder’s 3.9 yards-per-carry average for three and a half quarters per game. But if the game script called for it, Reeves unleashed Elway’s special talent.

I don’t know if Matt Stafford will ever become a great quarterback, but his physical skills make him capable of rare moments that the more conventional starters in this league will never have. We just have to realize that the good and the bad we face with a physical marvel (Stafford) is different from that of a technician (Ryan).

For more analysis of skill players like this post, download the 2014 Rookie Scouting Portfolio available April 1. Prepayment is available now. Better yet, if you’re a fantasy owner the Post-Draft Add-on comes with the 2014 RSP at no additional charge. Best, yet, 10 percent of every sale is donated to Darkness to Light to combat sexual abuse. You can purchase past editions of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio for just $9.95 apiece.

Updated Writers Project Values and 5-ish’s Readers Team Roster

I have a feeling Matt Stafford will be on a lot of RSP Writers Project Teams. Reader 5-ish, whose knowledge rivals several writers I know, debuts a team for us below with Stafford as his starter.

The RSP Writers Project has been a blast this week and there was a lot of fantastic feedback from writers and readers this week. After taking a quick time out this week to tweak the project, it is now back in full force with a lower cap, revised player values, and thanks to reader and Footballguys subscriber Donnie Smith, a spreadsheet that wasn’t created by someone who stopped learning how to use Excel in the early part of this decade.

Here’s where you can download the new spreadsheet, instructions, and questions.

5-ish’s RSP Writers Project Team

I’ve always been a big Bradshaw fan. It appears 5-ish has similar respect for the runner’s game. Photo by Ted Kerwin

One of the Footballguys.com staff’s favorite subscribers that frequent the Shark Pool message board is “5-ish.” He’s like many of our great subscribers, knowledgeable about the game, a good sense of humor, and always willing to engage in friendly debate.

5-ish submitted his RSP readers team Continue reading