Posts tagged Matt Waldman fantasy football

Reads Listens Views 5/30/2014

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Upside Down Strategy, Jeff Tedford, Ryan Riddle’s Draft Metrics, Kraken, and RSP Post-Draft Update.

What is Reads Listens Views?

If you’re new to the Rookie Scouting Portfolio blog, welcome.  May is normally a lighter month for me on the blog due to the short turnaround time for the RSP Post-Draft and the magazine schedule at my day job. Otherwise, I post links on Fridays to content I’m saving for later consumption or pieces that I found compelling. You may not like everything listed here, but you’re bound to like something.

Listens/Views

[youtube=http://youtu.be/kbbKtcbVMDM]

I was a matriculate of this program. This is a fun composition from one of its students that sounds like the title.

Download the 2014 Rookie Scouting Portfolio + Post-Draft Update!

Friday’s are also my chance to thank you for reading my work, encourage you to follow the RSP blog, and download the Rookie Scouting Portfolio publication.

The 2014 Rookie Scouting Portfolio Post-Draft Add-On is ready for download.  If you’re in a dynasty league, the combination of the 2014 RSP and the RSP Post-Draft will have you prepared for this year and beyond. Want details? Need details? I have ’em right here:

  • 84 pages
  • How to use the RSP and RSP-Post Draft together
  • Overrated/Underrated
  • Good/Bad post-draft fits
  • UDFAs to watch
  • Long-term dynasty waiver wire gems
  • Strategic overview of 2014 rookie drafts
  • Tiered Value Chart Cheat Sheet across all positions
  • Post-Draft rankings analysis and commentary–including notes about impending contracts years of competition on the depth charts
  • Average Draft Position (ADP) Data of 19 dynasty drafts
  • RSP Ranking-to-ADP Value Data
  • Raw Data Worksheets to continue calculating additional ADP data for future drafts

Hell, take a video tour of the 2013 post-draft to see what I mean:

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T8f06wrsHVI&feature=share]

Seriously, this analysis is worth the price of the 2014 RSP package alone, but you get this as a part of your purchase with the 2014 RSP. Remember 10 percent of each sale is donated to Darkness to Light to prevent sexual abuse in communities across the United States. While that alone should get you to download the RSP package, do it because you will be blown away with the detail and insight of the analysis and content. It’s why the RSP has grown so much in the past nine years.

Best yet, 10 percent of each RSP sale is donated to Darkness to Light, a non-profit devoted to preventing and addressing sexual abuse through community training in schools, religious groups, and a variety of civic groups across the U.S.

Download the 2014 RSP and RSP Post-Draft here

In Case You Missed It/Coming Soon

Reads (Football)

Views

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H/T to RabidBuc.

 Reads (Life In General)

  • The ‘Miracle’ Berry That Could Replace Sugar – Miracle fruit contains a protein called miraculin that tastes sweet enough to replicate the effect of sugar.
  • Blue Note turns 75 – Not the club in New York or Tokyo, but the record label based in Englewood Cliffs, New Jersey. Check out some of the music and articles on NPR–especially the Lou Donaldson & Lonnie Liston set where Donaldson talks a little trash about “pop-jazz” and 50 cent. Ironically, it’s their brand of “hard-bop” that actually led to some of this music he was trashing. Good music though.
  • ‘Oh My Jesus!'” Shots Fired During NPR Interview in Chicago – An interview about gun violence is interrupted with gun violence.
  • The $6800, 84-mpg Elio is Getting Closer – This three-wheel, two-seat car is getting closer to its production standard with reservation list sporting 17,000. It qualifies as a motorcycle for driving, but they’re shooting for a 5-star safety rating. I don’t know if that’s a reflection of the car or a reflection of the government. I hope it’s the car.
  • A Series on the Koch Brothers – If you’re a conservative, you’re likely to look at this series in Mother Jones’ as a “hit-piece.” If you’re liberal, you’ll probably love it. If you’re a writer, you’ll probably judge it on the merits of the work. And if you’ve ever known anyone who was asked to sign a statement saying that you’ve never received welfare before one of their companies gives you a job, then you have a smidgeon of insight into them.
  • God, The Devil, and ‘Hannibal’ -I’m hearing this NBC series based on Hannibal Lecter is good. I watched some clips on Hulu and was impressed.
  • Intriguing Lime-Green Blobs Appear In The Andes Mountains. Are They Alive? – These “drops of lime sherbert” in the desert are about 2,000 years old.
  • How Gun Extremists Target Women – These people give responsible gun owners a bad name. Some of them even harassed a Marine Veteran on Memorial Day.

Views

You’ve probably seen this, but if you haven’t it’s worth it. Cool, but not surprising. My cat did this to save a kitten from two dogs about 9-10 years ago.

[youtube=http://youtu.be/sPccqkSjy8M]

Reads Listens Views 5/23/2014

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Rene Marie, gubernatorial debate worth watching, 20 Surreal Places, and RSP Post-Draft Update.

What is Reads Listens Views?

If you’re new to the Rookie Scouting Portfolio blog, welcome.  May is normally a lighter month for me on the blog due to the short turnaround time for the RSP Post-Draft and the magazine schedule at my day job. Otherwise, I post links on Fridays to content I’m saving for later consumption or pieces that I found compelling. You may not like everything listed here, but you’re bound to like something.

Listens/Views

[youtube=http://youtu.be/lfJJ4-AUyYg]

Idaho’s gubernatorial debate with characters out of a movie–true and fantastic!

Post-Draft On the Couch w/Sigmund Bloom

Linkalicious 

Download the 2014 Rookie Scouting Portfolio + Post-Draft Update!

Friday’s are also my chance to thank you for reading my work, encourage you to follow the RSP blog, and download the Rookie Scouting Portfolio publication.

The 2014 Rookie Scouting Portfolio Post-Draft Add-On is ready for download.  If you’re in a dynasty league, the combination of the 2014 RSP and the RSP Post-Draft will have you prepared for this year and beyond. Want details? Need details? I have ’em right here:

  • 84 pages
  • How to use the RSP and RSP-Post Draft together
  • Overrated/Underrated
  • Good/Bad post-draft fits
  • UDFAs to watch
  • Long-term dynasty waiver wire gems
  • Strategic overview of 2014 rookie drafts
  • Tiered Value Chart Cheat Sheet across all positions
  • Post-Draft rankings analysis and commentary–including notes about impending contracts years of competition on the depth charts
  • Average Draft Position (ADP) Data of 19 dynasty drafts
  • RSP Ranking-to-ADP Value Data
  • Raw Data Worksheets to continue calculating additional ADP data for future drafts

Hell, take a video tour of the 2013 post-draft to see what I mean:

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T8f06wrsHVI&feature=share]

Seriously, this analysis is worth the price of the 2014 RSP package alone, but you get this as a part of your purchase with the 2014 RSP. Remember 10 percent of each sale is donated to Darkness to Light to prevent sexual abuse in communities across the United States. While that alone should get you to download the RSP package, do it because you will be blown away with the detail and insight of the analysis and content. It’s why the RSP has grown so much in the past nine years.

Best yet, 10 percent of each RSP sale is donated to Darkness to Light, a non-profit devoted to preventing and addressing sexual abuse through community training in schools, religious groups, and a variety of civic groups across the U.S.

Download the 2014 RSP and RSP Post-Draft here

In Case You Missed It/Coming Soon

  • A Trip to The Thrift Store – Gut Check No.292 takes a look at players I think are emerging, progressing, in crowded scenarios, and at a crossroads.
  • Ka’Deem Carey Analysis – Coming Soon.
  • Futures: My Expansion Franchise – I’ve just been awarded an NFL expansion team and must build my personnel department. Here’s how I departed from many in the NFL.
  • The 2014 RSP Writers Project -Sometime after the draft, we’ll get this rolling.

Reads (Football)

Views

I just bought some photography from one of my readers, Adrian Landin. He and his girlfriend Ashlie are Dallas natives who have been nomads in Southeast Asia for some time now. They are selling their work at Etsy and its excellent work. If you seeking quality photography for your home or office and have affinity for landscapes, Southeast Asia, or quality work in general, head on over.

 Reads (Life In General)

Views

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Rene Marie is someone I just discovered in my musical travels. Hell, I can’t show you just one . . .
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The Gut Check No.292: A Trip to The Thrift Store

Jones-Drew-Maurice

Fantasy football in May is a month dominated by rookie coverage. It’s a good time to hit the thrift store and shop for values on a longer development curve.

 

Thrift stores are awesome. I arrived at this conclusion somewhat late in life. I held the assumption that the items in these stores were someone else’s rejects.

This is both true and false. The close might not have been wanted, but it had nothing to do with quality or even style. Your stubborn Uncle Jake only wears Wrangler jeans and refused to even try on the pair of Lucky’s that his sister in-law gave him for Christmas. Grandpa Kevin liked the Polo sweater, but it was three sizes too big and he didn’t want to make a fuss about it on his Birthday. Or, your Cousin Rick would have put that dress shirt you got at the men’s shop to good use if he hadn’t decided to cash in his chips as partner of an accounting firm and join the park service as a tour guide.

Fantasy football has a similar dynamic. Rookies are the rage from February through August. Everyone wants to find the first-year players who will have an immediate impact. But fantasy owners often forget about the young veterans who didn’t play well–or even play at all–as rookies. Some owners even write off these second, third, or fourth-year players developing on a slower learning curve or stuck behind a crowded depth chart.

This week, I’m checking in with these players. We can categorize them in four ways:

  1. Emerging – Talents likely to contribute or start this year.
  2. Progressing – Players who still appear on track to become starters or contributors within a year or two.
  3. Covered – Personnel with talent, but stuck on crowded depth charts.
  4. Crossroads – Prospects who might be in make or break seasons in the NFL.

Remember, you don’t always have to buy when you shop. Even if you don’t invest in any of these players, it’s a good idea to monitor their progress and research them during the spring and summer. The earlier become conversant with the potential of backups, the sooner you’ll be able to anticipate and react to changes on the fantasy landscape.

Say Drew Brees suffers a shoulder sprain in practice in mid-October. You could wait until Friday to read the first article sharing basics about Griffin that probably took longer for the writer to write than it would take for you to Google. By then, you might have lost a shot at Griffin in a league with a first come, first serve waiver wire.

Or you could have been aware of Griffin this summer, made it a point to watch him in the preseason, and knew right away to add the Saints’ backup so you could either use him or trade him. Fantasy football has a more level playing field thanks to our ever evolving technology. However, it still takes effort to read the right things and with enough advanced notice to plan ahead.

Reading about these young players provides a foundation of knowledge to build on when training camp and preseason games begin. As everyone else is still learning about the talent, whether its buying or selling them, you’re already making moves with the pieces to your advantage.

Read the rest at Footballguys.com

RSO Writer’s League Update: Playoffs

Danny Kelly has always been a Jamal Charles fan (who hasn't? Raiders fans, I imagine). Photo by Phillip Macgruder.
Bob Harris and Jamaal Charles? A winning combination. See below. Photo by Phillip Macgruder.

Congratulations to Bob Harris and Mike Clay, who will be playing in the championship game of the Reality Sports Online Writer’s League. Harris’ team, the fourth seed, was hot in the playoffs, averaging 150 points the past two weeks to defeat Jeff Tefertiller’s fifth seed team and then upset the top seeded squad of Jim Day with a 155-120 victory. Harris received 61 points from Jamaal Charles and received additional help from Danny Amendola’s a 25-point afternoon to out-point Day’s squad that didn’t get its typical advantage from Peyton Manning and Jimmy Graham.

Mike Clay, the No.2 seed, defeated Sigmund Bloom in the semifinals 135-100, thanks to a combined 57 points from Nick Foles and Indianapolis’ team defense. Bloom, who earned a combined 74 points from Shane Vereen and LeSean McCoy in Week 14 to defeat season points leader Matt Waldman in the quarterfinals, only saw this running back duo generate 18 points in the semis.

The tale of the tape for Clay and Harris’ teams is fascinating. Clay has tremendous depth at quarterback with Foles and Drew Brees while Harris is getting by with Matt Ryan and Ryan Fitzpatrick. Matt Forte and Danny Woodhead power Clay’s team at RB and Harris sports Charles and Knowshon Moreno. Clay has the advantage with receiver depth, but Harris’ team is capable of huge individual performances.

Good luck to Bob and Mike who will be competing for a $1000 purse that will be donated to the charity of their choice.

To learn more about the league and Reality Sports Online’s excellent concept, check out this page. In case you haven’t thought about it, I am getting paid to give them my endorsement. However, I don’t do this often – and I am contacted monthly with some kind of offer. RSO is something I truly value and I agreed to start a league and keep a monthly diary because I would have paid to start a league with this format if I knew about it before they reached out to me.

I’ll be keeping this monthly diary next year as well, because I believe in the concept. Stay tuned for opportunities to earn a discount for starting a league next year. In fact, to risk doing the wrong thing – Start your own league and get a discount when you use this coupon code: RSP20%OFF.

The Gut Check No.279 – Assessing the Quarter Pole of the Fantasy Season

Would you ride or die this season with Wilson? Andrew Brown out. Photo by Football Schedule.
Would you ride or die this season with Wilson? Andrew Brown out. Photo by Football Schedule.

Leave at the curb? Wait a few more miles? Ride or die? Which call should you make with these worrisome players? Matt Waldman scouts the fantasy football landscape at the season’s quarter pole.

Stranded With Bramel: A true Story

This week’s Gut Check begins with a true story (except for one name change – and it’s not the car) that may not seem like it has anything to do with fantasy football, but I promise it does. Stay with me here. It will all be clear soon enough.

Whether it’s a new destination or an old familiar place, there’s nothing more fun than a road trip with friends. Even a familiar journey can present the unexpected. Sometimes these unforeseen events will force its traveler’s to make difficult choices. Take this year’s Senior Bowl trip with Jene Bramel.

Last January was the good doctor’s second trip to Mobile, Alabama to cover the all-star game’s practices with me and Cecil Lammey for the New York Times, the Rookie Scouting Portfolio, and Lammey’s ESPN affiliate. Usually, I pick up everyone at the Atlanta airport and I drive the team to Mobile. Lammey had to make other plans this year so it was Jene and I making the drive.

I’ve been chauffeuring the crew to Mobile and around town for the past five years. Despite odd stories like late-night scavenger hunts for reliable wireless that once led us to an empty Hooter’s parking lot after hours just to file those New York Times practice reports, it has always been an easy gig to be the driver. Even so I had the feeling I should consider renting an SUV last year.

The reason is that I bought a used Prius six months earlier. It works great around town and I even drove it to Memphis without issue on a summer trip with Alicia. However, it’s the Tashard Choice of cars: It’s small, it lacks acceleration, and no one’s really comfortable with the idea of having it carry the offense.

My particular Prius also has two quirks. One is that it has a name. Alicia likes to name machines. I think it’s a backwoods way of respecting the tools you’re fortunate to acquire. We call him Pete.

Pete’s other quirk is his gas gauge. While it’s cool that he gets me 46-50 miles to the gallon on a routine basis, Pete’s gauge doesn’t make a gradual drop from full to empty as you drive him. Instead, Pete will act like he still has a full tank for at least 500 miles. Then with 3-5 miles of gas left in the tank, he drops the gauge to one square above empty.

Imagine Tashard Choice getting 20 touches, looking like he’s capable of 25 more, and at touch number 22 he has a narcoleptic episode just as the ball arrives during the exchange on a toss sweep. While I knew Pete’s gauge wasn’t reliable, I track the odometer well enough to hit the gas station with at least 25-30 miles to spare. But on this Sunday afternoon in the middle of Alabama countryside, Pete conked out on Bamel and me two miles from the nearest exit.

Lot’s of decisions to make at this point: Call USAA? Call a wrecker? Walk to the exit? Go together?

My decision? Leave the northern guy in the deep south on the side of the road (sorry, Jen) to watch the car while I take off running for the exit. A quarter-mile down the road, a car with a trailer pulls to the shoulder waiting for me, windows open, blaring Styx’s “Renegade”.

Countryside. Car out of gas. Stranger offering ride in vehicle blaring song about impending death. It’s a cliche moment of a horror flick.

“I saw your car by the side of the road do you need a ride?” shouts the man over the music. He’s no more than five years older than I am, fit, weekend stubble, looks a little nervous as he’s also sizing me up. Good sign. Another good sign? A sudden wave of panic registers across his face when he realizes that not only is the radio still on, but he’s about to offer a ride to a stranger with Hangman coming down from the gallows and I don’t have very long blasting from his speakers.

“Yep. Ran out of gas. I just need to get to the next exit. What’s your name?” I ask as he tells me his name is Rick. My brain is saying this isn’t a good idea, but my gut is telling me everything’s cool. Still my brain needs a hedge. “Yeah, we’re on assignment with the New York Times for the Senior Bowl in Mobile. They’re expecting us to meet the rest of the team and file a report tonight. What do you do, Rick?”

Rick’s face softens a bit and he looks more relaxed. Meanwhile my cell phone is buzzing in my pocket.

“The Senior Bowl, huh? Good deal. I’m an ER nurse,” Rick says, explaining that it’s his day off and he’s getting ready to do some work on the house. “Was just coming back from Lowe’s when I spotted your car and your friend on the side of the road.”

I get in the car and five minutes later we’re at the only gas station in a 10-15 mile radius and they don’t have a gas canister. I buy two large jugs of distilled water, empty them in front of the gas pump, fill them with fuel in front of the state trooper who does nothing, and we head back for the car. However, we have to drive another three miles past the car because his trailer won’t navigate the median on a U-Turn.

This of course elicits another round of cell phone buzzing as we pass Bramel sitting in the sun with his iPad in the grass as he watches us pass him. We make it to Pete. I introduce the doc to the nurse, they talk shop as I fill the car and make sure it starts, we thank Rick, and we’re on our way.

In the car and on our way, Bramel and I have a few realizations. First, I’m an idiot. Not only do I leave Bramel stranded roadside without a key to the car when we have a chance to call USAA and perhaps have to wait a half-hour longer for a ride to the gas station, but I risk never being seen again after entering a car that’s too far away for Bramel to make out.

Second, I at least had some shred of common sense to invoke our affiliation with the world’s most recognized newspaper so our driver is on notice that we’ll be missed if we go missing. Third, I luck out that the driver is a good guy; an ER nurse who was equally unsure about offering a ride to a 40-something dude with a five days of scruff and sporting sunglasses and a Beast Mode t-shirt.

What does this have to do with worrisome players? First, most of you have at least one player making you feel like an idiot after the first three weeks of the season. Second, you at least have some shred of common sense or intuition about how to handle it. Third, you lucked out that I’m not playing Renegade as I write this article.

Fourth, you need to figure out if each player in this week’s Gut Check is someone you should leave at the curb, hang in there for a few more miles, or decide you’re going to ride or die with them. I’m stating my case for each but remember I’m the same guy ran out of gas in a Prius, left Jene Bramel stranded, didn’t answer my cell phone, and took a ride from a stranger.

Of course, I’m here to tell you about it which should tell you I’m either good or I’m lucky. At this point, does it matter which one it is? I didn’t think so. Let’s get started.

Leave At the Curb: Too Risky

RB Stevan RidleyIt’s not the 3.4 yards per carry or the ball security issues that have me worried about Ridley. He’s still a tough runner with burst. It’s the one reception for eight yards in three games versus Brandon Bolden‘s five catches in one week. The Patriots don’t use him in the passing game. Bolden’s 49 yards on 5 receptions is just 2 yards and 1 reception fewer than Ridley’s 2012 receiving total.

Granted, Ridley was the No.10 fantasy runner last year with that paltry total. However, Bolden ate into Ridley’s time when he was healthy last year and Vereen also battled health issues.

Read the rest at Footballguys.com

RSO Writers’ League Diary Preseason Week 3

RSO founder Matt Papson acquired Antonio Brown as a part of a rebuilding plan. Photo by bmward_2000.
RSO founder Matt Papson acquired Antonio Brown as a part of a rebuilding plan. Photo by bmward_2000.

Every month I’ll be writing something about the start-up keeper-contract-salary-auction league I’m running at Reality Sports Online. You can read more about RSO’s excellent league format here. And if you want to start a league with your friends or join a league as an individual, you can earn a 20 percent discount when you use the promo code RSP20%OFF. 

in case you missed it, I recruited some of my favorite competitors from the fantasy football industry to participate:

  1. Jeff Tefertiller – Footballguys
  2. Ryan McDowell – Dynasty League Football
  3. Sigmund Bloom – Footballguys
  4. Mike MacGregor – FFToday
  5. Bryan Fontaine – Pro Football Focus
  6. Tim Stafford – Dynasty League Football
  7. Matt Papson- Reality Sports Online
  8. Matt Waldman – Footballguys/RSP/Football Outsiders
  9. Jason Wood – Footballguys
  10. Mike Clay – Pro Football Focus/NBC
  11. Bob Harris and Mike Dempsey – Football Diehards/Sirius XM
  12. Rivers McCown – Football Outsiders
  13. Jim Day – Fantasy Taz
  14. Lance Zierlein – Sideline View

You can’t get much better when it comes to the combined fantasy football savvy of this crew. Since the draft ended in late May there have been 56 waiver wire transactions and 33 players traded to other in the past 93 days. That’s almost a player changing hands per day. RSO founder Matt Papson is behind 19 of these trades after he inherited a team after the draft with a huge cap surplus. Here’s who he’s traded and acquired during this time:

Dealt

  • 3rd Round Pick
  • Maurice Jones-Drew
  • Eddie Royal
  • Zach Ertz
  • Dennis Pitta
  • Plaxico Burress
  • Ryan Fitzpatrick
  • Robert Meachem
  • Knowshon Moreno
  • Mark Sanchez

These are players that were acquired in the auction by the former owner who had to leave early due to unforseen circumstances and he didn’t leave much of a draft list. The result was a team with a lot of D-level fantasy performers but a ton of cap room to use.

Naturally, the former Eagles employee Papson has Michael Vick as his starter in the Reality Sports Online Writer's League. Photo by Matthew Straubmuller.
Naturally, the former Eagles employee Papson has Michael Vick as his starter in the Reality Sports Online Writer’s League. Photo by Matthew Straubmuller.

 

Papson, a former cap expert with the Philadelphia Eagles, jumped at the opportunity to take over this team because he realized how much financial leeway he had to rebuild the team by giving cap relief to the rest of the league in return for more promising long-term options.  You’ll see what I mean with the acquisitions below:

  • Alex Smith
  • Vick Ballard
  • Antonio Brown
  • Jonathan Baldwin
  • Rashard Mendenhall
  • Chad Henne
  • Michael Crabtree
  • Darrius Heyward-Bey
  • Donald Brown
  • Aaron Hernandez

Because Papson had so much cap room, he could absorb salaries of less-inspired options like Hernandez, Henne,  Brown, and Baldwin, while acquiring strong starters like Antonio Brown and Crabtree and serviceable depth like Smith, Mendenhall, Ballard, and Heyward-Bey.

His team now looks a lot better than it did after the draft:

  • QBs (start 1): Michael Vick, Alex Smith, and Chad Henne
  • RBs (start 2): Rashard Mendenhall, Ryan Mathews, Jonathan Dwyer Christine Michael, Vick Ballard, Peyton Hillis, Delone Carter, Donald Brown, and James Starks
  • WRs (start 3-4): Antonio Brown, Kenny Britt,  Darrius Heyward-Bey, Aaron Mellette, Michael Crabtree, Jason Avant, Harry Douglas, Michael Jenkins, Chris Harper, Eric Rogers, and Jonathan Baldwin
  • TEs (start 1-2): Kyle Rudolph, Anthony Fasano, Delanie Walker, and Michael Hoomanawanui
  • DST: New England
  • PK: David Akers

The team doesn’t have a great outlook this year unless he has 2-3 strong surprises at running back  and at least one overachiever at receiver. However, Papson is in a much better position to turn this team into a much better squad in 2014 due to his cap room of $28 million.

TEAM 2013 2013 ROOM 2014 2015 2016
SALARY SALARY SALARY SALARY
Matt Waldman $120,343,604 $2,656,396 $77,840,327 $17,472,051 $5,180,000
Sigmund Bloom $114,401,854 $8,598,146 $76,924,424 $66,591,995 $22,960,000
Bob Harris $92,170,194 $30,829,806 $54,648,827 $17,112,459 $0
Tim Stafford $116,270,444 $6,729,556 $94,096,434 $62,852,424 $20,580,000
Bryan Fontaine $111,816,814 $11,183,186 $72,813,210 $30,729,608 $1,960,000
Matt Papson $94,988,621 $28,011,379 $64,724,175 $19,619,729 $0
Jim Day $122,217,721 $782,279 $84,071,728 $61,630,735 $17,780,000
Jeff Tefertiller $123,000,227 ($227) $119,408,970 $71,227,712 $16,800,000
Jason Wood $121,988,128 $1,011,872 $94,011,311 $48,419,492 $19,740,000
Rivers McCown $115,153,657 $7,846,343 $78,761,128 $61,638,599 $15,820,000
Mike MacGregor $111,856,984 $11,143,016 $88,618,392 $63,934,800 $27,160,000
Lance Zierlein $112,661,484 $10,338,516 $71,608,178 $50,644,871 $7,420,000
Ryan McDowell $106,429,757 $16,570,243 $73,579,640 $61,004,523 $28,980,000
Mike Clay $121,503,737 $1,496,263 $46,694,512 $14,700,286 $3,640,000

The cap room over the next three years is likely the most fascinating aspect of this league. Will owners like Papson and Bob Harris benefit from the space as injuries and disappointing performances teams throughout the league? Can they acquire the right players that this money will afford them? All great questions as we move forward.

My Team

I’ve had 10 waiver wire transactions since May and most are players I’ve been monitoring during camp. I’m hoping that some of them show enough long-term promise for me to tag at year’s end or they surprise this year:

  • Zach Sudfeld – until the Patriots tight end fumbled the ball with the one’s on Thursday night, he has been excellent. I still think he earns playing time and might surprise with starter production in fantasy leagues at least until Rob Gronkowski returns. He’s fine depth behind my starter Vernon Davis if Dwayne Allen doesn’t look good after rehabbing a foot injury.
  • C.J. Anderson – This sounds crazy, but if he didn’t get hurt he might have been this year’s Alfred Morris. A big back with a low center of gravity, Anderson looked more impressive breaking tackles and avoiding penetration than any back on the Broncos depth chart and was just earning second-team reps when he went down. I think the Broncos will keep him and give him a shot to work his way up the depth chart in the second half of the season. I was impressed with Anderson at Cal, but didn’t think he’d be drafted because he wasn’t the starter at Cal. For some additional perspective, neither was Willie Parker at UNC, Priest Holmes at Texas, William Andrews at Auburn (played FB for Joe Cribbs), or Terrell Davis at Georgia.
  • Russell Shephard – I don’t think he’ll do much this year, but I do think he flashed enough as a rookie with little experience at the position that he could develop at a fast rate and earn a bigger shot by next year. Former Rice quarterback Bert Emanuel wasn’t a bad receiver in Atlanta, perhaps Shephard can follow in those footsteps.
  • Spencer Ware – You know I love me some Spencer Ware. Talent often has a funny way of rising to prominence – especially physical players like Ware.
  • Shaun Draughn – I’m not impressed with Knile Davis at all thus far. While Draughn hasn’t played as well as he did last year, I’d be surprised if he’s not part of the backfield picture and a prominent part if Jamal Charles can’t finish the year.
  • Chad Spann – Not much has been said about Spann after his first week in Jets camp. It’s hard to tell if he’ll earn a role, but I really haven’t seen enough of him in preseason to make a call on him.
  • Austin Collie – A terrific receiver when healthy, but I don’t know about the fit in San Francisco and there’s enough rust that he might need a team willing to be patient with him and that’s about has common as purple grizzly bears.
  • Julius Thomas – He continues to look good and might force his way into the Broncos’ lineup with a quarterback who isn’t shy about targeting open players regardless of their draft round, contract, or level of stardom.

Although he may seem like a waiver wire gem, I actually acquired Kenbrell Thompkins in the start-up auction. It’s early, but so far he has proven to be one of my more astute moves now he’s close to earning a starting role in New England. Truth be told, this is the type of move that normally doesn’t work out for me, but I just might have picked the right long shot this year.

Here’s my depth chart heading into the regular season:

  • QBs (start 1): Jay Cutler, Carson Palmer, and Sean Renfree
  • RBs (start 2): Steven Jackson, Arian Foster, Ben Tate, Ryan Williams, Shaun Draughn, Spencer Ware, Chad Spann, and C.J. Anderson
  • WRs (start 3-4): Calvin Johnson, DeSean Jackson, Cecil Shorts, Kenbrell Thompkins, Keenan Allen, Travis Benjamin, Marvin Jones, Marquess Wilson, Austin Collie, Russell Shephard, and Da’Rick Rogers
  • TEs (start 1-2): Vernon Davis, Dwayne Allen, Zach Sudfeld, and Luke Willson
  • DST: Seattle
  • PK: Sebastian Janikowski

Can’t say I love my team right now. Running back needs to stay healthy and I’m concerned about my lack of depth. I also have concerns about my kicker unless Terrelle Pryor can get into the lineup and at least scramble his way into field goal position enough times in games for respectable production. I think my receivers can carry me some weeks if my running backs can stay healthy and play like strong RB2s every week.

Until next month . . .

Ready to try a start-up keeper-contract-salary-auction league experience that’s easy to play and even easier to run? Go to Reality Sports Online and either start a league with your friends or join a league as an individual. You can earn a 20 percent discount when you use the promo code RSP20%OFF. 

 

The Gut Check No.272 – Upside Down Strategy Update

Lacy is prime candidate for Upside Down drafts. Photo by Mike Pettigano.
Lacy is a prime candidate for Upside Down drafts. Photo by Mike Pettigano.

The Upside Down Strategy is not my own; it’s simply one of several methods I write about. Still, many of my readers – including two FPPC winners – have credited it for helping them build exceptional rosters in a high-stakes format and even a counter-terrorism expert has told me the basic philosophy that “once something becomes conventional, it’s no longer safe,” is something he relates to with his investigative work as well as his new-found success with fantasy teams. 

At the day job, I interviewed an exec running one of the bigger number-crunching outfits on Madison Avenue. Although his firm didn’t do the work, he heads up a team with the type of skill sets that helped a company like Target eerily predict pregnancy based on shopping habits. We talked about analytics – even touching on the stats movement in football.

This man has extensive training with statistical modeling, but what he told me is that his fellow “quants” often fail to generate insights that make a difference in their respective businesses because of the way they use data. His criticism is that the quants use a lot of binary calculations and the results validate safe decision-making.

Decision-making too safe for running a business where the mission is to win customers’ eyeballs, hearts, and wallets with ad campaigns.

He was speaking my language when he elaborated that playing it safe rarely creates exceptional results. There’s only one winner in fantasy football, but I know owners – whether they know it or not – who draft like their primary goal is to make the playoffs. In fact, I’d argue most of us do.

The primary motivation is to build a team good enough to earn a playoff spot. Then as the playoffs get closer, focus on refining that roster to contend for a championship. I think the underlying thought is to make the playoffs so you don’t look like a bad fantasy football player.

Football fans who play fantasy football absorb the same mentality that NFL teams have: you’re great if you win a championship; you’re very good if you go to the championship; you’re good if you make the playoffs; and you’re not good if you miss the playoffs.

It doesn’t help that most fantasy leagues award money for making the playoffs or scoring the most points. This is an incentive to be good, but not great; play it safe, but don’t go for greatness; and win, but only if you don’t have to risk losing big.

It’s not a popular line of thought, but there’s truth in those words.

In a year where the pervading thought is to take running backs early, acquire a stud tight end, and wait on quarterbacks and wide receivers, the radical approach is to acquire the best non-runners for your starting lineup and use the middle and late rounds to acquire a huge block of runners for your roster. The fundamental reason for this approach’s efficacy is the short career span, high rate of injury, and fairly high turnover within the top-12 and top-24 rankings of running backs from one year to the next. I call this the Upside Down Draft Strategy. You can find details here.

Most of you already get the gist of this strategy. You’re here to find out which middle and late-round runners I’m touting for your drafts this month. I’m writing three articles to profile these backs within the context of walking you through multiple Upside Down Draft plans – the first one at the early turn (1st overall pick); the second with a middle pick (6th spot); and the final strategy at the turn (12th spot) – so you can see how it all fits together.

I think this strategy is best-suited for the following league formats:

  • PPR leagues with lineups of 1QB/2RBs/3WR/1TE.
  • PPR leagues with lineups as above, but with a flex at RB, WR, or TE.
  • Premium PPR leagues with 1.5 points for TE and a flex at RB, WR, or TE.
  • Non-PPR leagues with 1QB/2RB/4WR/1TE and a flex at RB, WR, or TE.

The example below is for a 12-team league.  

For the rest log into Footballguys.com.

If you aren’t a Footballguys subscriber, you’re missing one of the best-quality fantasy sites in the business. Let me put it to you this way: Last year, I had the top preseason rankings for QBs and No. 8 overall for WRs among over 100 fantasy writers, but that’s just par for the course compared to the rest of our staff. Check out the Multi-Year Scores and you’ll see the likes of David Dodds and Bob Henry at the top; Sigmund Bloom, Jason Wood, and Jeff Hasely aren’t far behind; and there’s also Jeff Tefertiller and Mark Wimer.

We’re packed with quality staffers who work as a great team to produce content like these Training Camp Reports.  Combine this content with the Magazine Draft Apps (iPhone and Android), and affiliations with FanDuel, and you’ll love what Footballguys can do for you. 

Not sure? Get our free daily email updates and you will be. 

Reads Listens Views 7/26/2013

Listens I – Johnny Adams 

[youtube=http://youtu.be/YAi0ZYI8EKs]

Thanks

You’d think it’s routine for me thank you for making the RSP blog a regular pit stop on your journey through the week. It is, but it doesn’t feel like it.  I have great readers who not only send me links to music, they send me CDs. They not only send me links to articles they find interesting, they send me books. And they not only send me well wishes, but cards for the holidays.

That’s crazy cool. Even for a reasonably private guy like me, who can do the extrovert thing, but naturally craves moments of alone time and silence throughout the day. Think about it, does an extrovert really spend this much time in a room by himself studying football like it’s research?  I suppose there are some, but they’re slightly more common than a two-headed shark.

Your visits, your follows, and your purchases of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio provide the emotional and fiscal encouragement to continue this journey and I am grateful for your patronage. So is my 12-year-old cat, who is currently holding my mouse hostage until I finish writing this post and get some sleep.

Luckily, I get around a keyboard well enough to tell you to do yourself a favor and support the Rookie Scouting Portfolio. Sign up for my mailing list to get updates on posts and purchase the publication. The 2013 RSP is $19.95 and includes over 1200 pages of pre-draft analysis that’s great for long-term use as a fantasy owner or draftnik and a post-draft publication that most of my readers believe is worth the price on its own for its tiered rankings, average draft position data from early season dynasty drafts, and value scores derived from this analysis. Get a sample report here.

Best of all, you’re supporting more than the Rookie Scouting Portfolio. I donate 10 percent of every sale to Darkness to Light, an organization whose mission is to address and prevent sexual abuse in communities across the country through training programs to the people who matter most – adults in local communities who interact with children like teachers, police officers, little league coaches, and clergy. Download the RSP here.

Football Reads

  • Why Don’t Woodpeckers Get Concussions – Ryan Riddle and Jene Bramel (and to a lesser extend me) had a Twitter discussion about concussions. It lead to the topic of why some animals (Rams and Woodpeckers) don’t suffer brain injuries. This article connects it back to football.
  • Breaking Down Sam Bradford’s Approach To A Game-Winning Drive Allen Dumonjic’s The Tape Never Lies pieces are always worth a read. He was first on my list of writers I wanted to guest write for this blog, but he’s got bigger and better things ahead for him.
  • 2013 PPR Auction Values – Good advice from Sigmund Bloom on how to develop a good auction strategy. Simple, easy, intuitive, and totally Bloom.

Listens II – Freddie King: “I’m Goin’ Down”

[youtube=http://youtu.be/V_ONyukSLqA]

Non-Football Reads

Views – These Images Might Tempt You To Eat Bugs

These images are from David George Gordon’s The Eat-A-Bug Cookbook and re-posted from the NPR Blog The Salt. My comments on what I’d eat below as well as Paulette’s. Note I’m a moderately adventurous eater and Mrs. P ain’t.

Sheesh! kebabs can be made with Eastern Lubber Grasshoppers (pictured here), katydids or other large-bodied arthropods.

Me: I’d try the grasshopper-kebabs, I can already imagine the balance of the sweet, sumptuousness of the grilled peppers complementing the crunch of the bug. Even the bug has a beautiful presentation with that hue of pinkness.

Paulette: Hmm…maybe if I closed my eyes, but if you put this in front of me I’d say two things: 1) You must be joking. And 2) Where’s my steak?

Fried green tomato hornworms

Me: Beautiful presentation . . .

Paulette: What? I don’t eat food that is as bright green as nuclear waste. I also dislike dishes heavy on tomatoes –

Me: And worms?

Paulette: Especially those. Although in an abstract way, it’s a beautiful picture, but as you know I don’t eat glowing green food. You? You could eat avocado all day.

Me: You eat that guacamole at the place near your office.

Paulette: That’s because they make a show of preparing it and I see everything they put in it.

Gordon recommends dusting the deep-fried tarantula spider with smoked paprika.

Paulette: [Retracts instinctively from the screen in horror (she has severe arachnophobia) and after her breathing slows down] Why did you even show me this?!

Me: It’s the first time I’ve seen this, too. Looks a little like calamari.

Paulette: Hell no . . . a girl has got to eat, but I’d starve to death first.

Me: If you didn’t suffocate from hyperventilation first.

Paulette: That too!

Me: I wonder what they do with the fur?

Paulette: That’s not funny . . .

Listens III – The Black Crowes and The Tedeschi Trucks Band

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lNJRx1cMYpM&w=420&h=315]

RSO Monthly Update: Off Season Grinding

If you acquire Victor Cruz before he became a starter, you're probably a grinder. See below. Photo by Football Schedule.
If you acquired Victor Cruz before he became a starter, you’re probably a grinder. See below. Photo by Football Schedule.

Once a month, I’ll be writing about the Reality Sports Online Keeper Salary Cap League that I started with 13 other football writers. If you’re seeking a great GM experience that offers the complexities of realistic contract negotiations and salary cap ramifications in an easy-to-use league management system that does all the work for you, join an RSO leagueUse the promotion code RSP20%OFF to earn a 20 percent discount.

When I was a kid nothing ruled my free time more than pickup games of football. The setting for those games was dictated by your age and neighborhood. When you’re a six year-old living in an apartment complex, it means your games are restricted to whatever kids you could round-up within a two-block radius of the complex.

At eight, your territory expanded to the entire complex and the adjoining neighborhood to include the friends you made at school. By the time you’re 12, your pool of competition and settings for games spanned a five-mile radius of your home.

If your family moved during your childhood, then you know that it adds another dynamic to neighborhood pickup games. I moved three times as a kid and always to an apartment complex, so I’m familiar with being the new guy.

As the new guy if you want to make friends fast you want to maintain that delicate balance of proving that you’re neither the chump nor the bully. Pickup football games were the best way to do it. The first thing I always tried to do before the game started was to show something before we picked teams.

The two easiest ways to heighten your neighborhood draft stock was the vertical game. I always made sure I brought a football with me to the game. Just before the group chose captains I either got someone to throw me a deep pass or I had someone go deep. Do one of those two things and your draft stock jumped from dead-last to at least the middle of the pack.

But the best way to skyrocket your neighborhood draft stock and scout much of your competition at the same time was to initiate a pre-game warm-up of ‘Gator’. If you’re not familiar with the name, you probably played the game. It was essentially a kick return drill. The object was to catch the ball and run through the field of players to the end zone.

As a kid who wore a size 10 shoe by the time he was 9, I was generally big enough to compete with guys 2-3 years older than me. I made sure I did one of three things: caught the kick and ran over someone; knocked the biggest guy down with a block where I had to outrun others to get there; or run through someone on the way to tackling the ball carrier.

The immediate goal wasn’t to try to show everyone you were the best guy on the field. You might not be and that was alright. You wanted everyone to know that you weren’t the chump of the group.

Likewise you always noted the guys who could catch, tackle, and break tackles. But I always tried to spot the kid with the grinder mentality. There was always at least one kid in every neighborhood game who did the little things that made a team good that most didn’t notice. Having one or two stars was important, but you needed quality, capable worker bees to build a winning team.

Alfred Morris, the Grinder's grinder. Photo by Keith Allison.
Alfred Morris, the Grinder’s grinder. Photo by Keith Allison.

You can see the same elements at play with fantasy football owners. While I competed with all-star fantasy writers like David Dodds, Sigmund Bloom, Gregg Rosenthal, Scott Pianowski, and Bob Harris while writing for FFToday.com, becoming part of Footballguys staff  in 2009 was like expanding the neighborhood territory for more pickup games.

Invitations to re-draft, dynasty, and IDP leagues came from all directions – especially from Footballguys staff. And this is one of those neighborhoods with a concentration of all-stars in their own right. Bob Henry, Jason Wood, John Norton, and Maurile Tremblay are just a few of the names I could mention.

However, there were Footballguys not as well-known to me at the time, but they had plenty of game. There are about six I want to mention, but two at the top of the list are Aaron Rudnicki and Jeff Tefertiller.  “Ruds” couldn’t make the draft date of the RSO league start-up, but you best believe that until he quits playing fantasy football I’m sending him an invitation to compete in any league I ever run because he’s adept at IDP, re-draft, and dynasty formats and he’s a master pick-sniper on draft day.

Tefertiller isn’t an IDP guy, but I enjoy competing with him because he’s a grinder. In dynasty formats, off-season grinding can build you a winner. Here’s a list of players I’ve added – and sadly, sometimes dropped – while doing the off-season grinding on the waiver wire to enhance the back-end of my dynasty rosters:

  • Victor Cruz
  • Alfred Morris
  • Dennis Pitta
  • Lance Moore
  • Brandon Lloyd
  • Chris Ivory
  • Andre Brown
  • Brian Hartline
  • LaGarrette Blount
  • Greg Hardy
  • Vontaze Burfict
  • Dannell Ellerbe
  • Thomas DeCoud

Tefertiller is one of the more active dynasty grinders I compete against. So it came as no surprise he’s the most active owner on the RSO waiver wire during the slowest months of the football year and only a month removed from our free agent auction.

Not including RSO co-founder Matt Papson, who took over a team where the original owner had to abandon the auction half way through the process and has made seven transactions and numerous trades since late-May to salvage this team, Tefertiller and I have been the most active off-season grinders, but I only have four transactions to Tefertiller’s 14.

Here’s Tefertiller’s roster with the added players in bold: 

Quarterback Running Back Wide Receiver
Zac Dysert (DEN) R Lance Dunbar (DAL) R DeAndre Hopkins (HOU) R
Brock Osweiler (DEN) R Michael Turner (ATL) Jarrett Boykin (GB) R
Robert Griffin III (WAS) Cedric Benson (GB) R Deonte Thompson (BAL) R
Shaun Hill (DET) R Ray Rice (BAL) Terrance Williams (DAL) R
Kyle Orton (DAL) R Beanie Wells (ARI) R Patrick Edwards (DET) R
Josh Boyce (NE) R
Brandon Marshall (CHI)
Pierre Garcon (WAS)
Julio Jones (ATL)
Torrey Smith (BAL)
Tight End Kicker Defense
Chris Gragg (BUF) R Shayne Graham (CLE) R CIN Team Defense (CIN) R
Jeff Cumberland (NYJ) R Garrett Hartley (NO) SD Team Defense (SD)
Marcedes Lewis (JAC) NYG Team Defense (NYG) R
Delanie Walker (TEN) R JAC Team Defense (JAC) R

Tefertiller has also cycled through this list of players:

  • Chiefs QB Tyler Bray
  • Packers QB B.J. Coleman
  • Packers QB Graham Harrell
  • Saints RB Travis Cadet
  • Jets RB Joe McKnight
  • Browns WR Travis Benjamin

If you pay attention to OTA news then you can see the pattern with the players added and dropped from his roster. It should also be obvious to you that Tefertiller has a good crew of receivers, an RB1 in Ray Rice, and a potential superstar in Robert Griffin. This team may have a hole at RB2 and lack a quality backup at QB, but he has also built this roster to have room to fill these holes through free agency and trades as the preseason heats up.

Cumberland is a serviceable addition at tight end and Thompson, Dunbar, and Boykin all are an injury away from getting a chance to prove themselves as at least rotational contributors. While some owners may have chosen to spend more energy acquiring running backs at this point, wide receiver is the most liquid of positions to trade and he’s building on his strength so he can use this position as a bargaining chip rather than attempting to win the lottery with an unknown back.

Beanie Wells, Michael Turner, or Cedric Benson may not see an NFL field this year, but at this point it’s worth holding onto them to see if a team acquires their services when a starter gets hurt. NFL roster management accounts for finances so backups on a depth chart might be the No.2 or No.3 back in name, but some may only hold those roles because they are cheaper and have growth potential.

Greg Hardy is waiver wire fodder turned double-digit sack monster. Photo by Parker Anderson.
Greg Hardy is waiver wire fodder turned double-digit sack monster. Photo by Parker Anderson.

However, a team that sees its starter lost for the season due to injury may decide that a one-year deal at a larger salary for an established veteran is a better option than what’s on the depth chart – especially when these three players have sat at home long enough for it to sink in that a multi-year deal with a guaranteed starting role is a thing of the past.

Quarterback Yrs $ Running Back Yrs $ Wide Receiver Yrs $
Jay Cutler (CHI) 1 4.0 Arian Foster (HOU) 2 51.0 Calvin Johnson (DET) 2 69.5
Carson Palmer (ARI) R 1 3.0 Steven Jackson (ATL) 1 16.5 Cecil Shorts (JAC) 4 18.5
Alex Smith (KC) R 2 2.5 Ryan Williams (ARI) R 1 2.5 DeSean Jackson (PHI) 3 10.5
Sean Renfree (ATL) R 3 R Ben Tate (HOU) R 3 7.5 Keenan Allen (SD) 3 R
Alex Green (GB) R 1 0.5 LaVon Brazill (IND) R 1 0.5
Shaun Draughn (KC) R 1 0.5 Marvin Jones (CIN) R 1 1.0
Miguel Maysonet (CLE) R 1 0.5 Domenik Hixon (CAR) R 1 0.5
Bobby Rainey (BAL) 1 0.5 Earl Bennett (CHI) R 1 0.5
Marquess Wilson (CHI) R 3 R
Da’Rick Rogers (BUF) R 3 R
Kenbrell Thompkins (NE) R 1 0.5

Tight End

Yrs

$

Kicker

Yrs

$

Defense

Yrs

$

Vernon Davis (SF) 1 8 Sebastian Janikowski (OAK) 1 0.5 Seattle 1 3
Dwayne Allen (IND) R 1 2.5 Robbie Gould (CHI) R 1 0.5
Luke Willson (SEA) R 3 R
Julius Thomas (DEN) 1 0.5            
Zach Sudfeld (NE) R 1 0.1  

Like Tefertiller, I continued to add to a strength by acquiring Julius Thomas and Zach Sudfeld after hearing good news from OTAs. If I hit on three tight ends from this group of five, I have bargaining chips to trade for picks, cap room, or depth. In addition to this pair of tight ends, I dropped Cedric Peerman for Miguel Maysonet just until we learn more about the Cleveland depth chart and Richardson’s shin issues.

I also dropped Bobby Rainey today and added Travis Benjamin, who has a good shot to start two games to begin the year. The move also might afford me time to sit on LaVon Brazill to see if he can keep his roster spot as a Colt or find a job elsewhere.

I also traded away Alex Smith to Papson for a third-round pick last month. Cutler and Palmer are enough depth to pull the trigger to give away a player I never meant to acquire.

None of this grinding may help either Tefertiller or my team – in fact, there’s a chance we dropped players who might have helped us more – but I don’t believe it. I think the consistent tinkering and movement of the bottom end of a roster lends credence to that idea that part of skill is creating your own good luck.

Try RSO for your next league. Use the promotion code RSP20%OFF to earn a 20 percent discount.

RSO Writers League: Site Review and My Draft

 I'd start my fantasy season with Calvin Johnson, wouldn't you? Photo by Mike Morbeck.
Start your fantasy season with Calvin Johnson? How about signing him to a two-year deal? Even better. Find out where you can do it online and no Excel needed.  Photo by Mike Morbeck.

This weekend I donned the commissioner hat of a fantasy league for the first time in six years. This is no run-of-the-mill league. Not only are the owners an extraordinary group of fantasy writers, but Reality Sports Online’s style of game and draft application is taking fantasy football in a direction I want to go.

Sigmund Bloom equated the process to an expedition to undiscovered territory. Thanks to your’s truly, who opted to have each team sign 25 players in the free agent auction it felt like a never-ending quest. Fortunately, there were no fatalities and most of our adventurers made it to the end. The overwhelming sentiment was that they relished the journey.

I believe if you’re the type of fantasy owner who reads my work or the work of guys in the league below, you’ll relish what RSO has to offer. Today, I’m covering the start-up process of this league, providing my takes on each team, and reviewing the RSO site and application.

In subsequent posts, I’m going to profile the rest of the teams.

Taking the Plunge with Reality Sports Online’s Front Office Format (Salary Cap-Keeper-Dynasty -Contract-Auction Format)

Have you ever learned a skill that appears more daunting than it actually is? My wife has a good example – installing tile. She’s been tiling kitchens and bathrooms for years – it was even a part of what she did when she owned her own business.

At first, the idea of getting these individual pieces on a wall at the appropriate level and coordination of color seemed difficult to her when thinking about how few mistakes one can make during this process. But a little front-end preparation revealed it was a lot easier than she imagined.

RSO’s format can have that kind of feel at first and the learning curve seems a lot steeper than it really is. Once you spend a few minutes learning the rules and trying out the draft room, you realize the process is not only intuitive, but it might be one of the most promising ways to run a league that I have seen yet.

To use a more dramatic example of RSO’s learning curve, I immediately thought of Bud (played by Ed Harris) from the movie The Abyss when he dons a tricked-out deep-sea diving helmet that requires him to breathe liquid:

[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b338ZWuYsJ0?rel=0&w=560&h=315]

There’s an initial fear factor, but then it’s a lot more natural than you’d expect. The reason is many of you hardcore owners are doing contract or keeper leagues now, but spending time keeping up with your own spreadsheets and calculations. RSO is among the first I’ve seen that are doing it for you.

There are a few kinks to work out to make the RSO platform a little more flexible when it comes to setting up pre-draft lists and adding players to a nomination queue, but I have tried numerous auction sites over the years and the application on the whole is intuitive, smooth, and had no breakdowns. Try a league at RSO and use the promotion code RSP20%OFF to earn a 20 percent discount.

RSO won the FSTA’s 2012 Rookie of the Year Award and was a Finalist for the Most Innovative Product Award. I get the vibe that these guys are working hard to make the product the best it can be and they appear open and responsive to feedback.

The Basics

RSO is a league management fantasy football website runs keeper leagues that operate with contract values that mimic the NFL’s system. The site owners are former NFL employees – one of them helped run a team’s cap. I think I can boil down the details to keep it simple:

  • Each team is given approximately $123 million in cap space (the number moves each year with the NFL cap).
  • Leagues can be a wide variety of sizes: Offense w/team defense or IDP.
  • Every year there is a rookie draft (serpentine) and free agent auction draft that is completed in one sitting.*
  • There are three basic contract types:
    • A standard, three-year or four-year deal for your rookie draft picks based on the draft order (contract settings determined by commissioner).
    • A standard, one-year deal as determined by the winning bid in a free agent auction.
    • Three types of multi-year contracts that your league can determine how many each team can offer:
      • Four-year
      • Three-year
      • Two-year
  • The site manages trades and free agency according to the cap and it’s all automated.

The multi-year contracts and the auction is what seems harder than it really is. The auction room tracks how much cap room you have and what it’s going to cost you to win a player. One you use all your multi-year deals, the site only allows you to bid with one-year deals. It’s also encouraged that you save $5-$10 million of your $123 million for drop/adds.

Once you see how it all flows, it’s really just a facet of what makes RSO’s league format something I want to try again and again.

*We got the benefit of doing a slow rookie draft due to the schedules of our writers but after using the application, we could have easily done everything in one night if we had 20-man rosters and shorter nomination and bid times.
Pick rookies with a snake draft, sign the rest like the NFL - free agency at Reality Sports Online. Photo by John Martinez-Paviliga
Pick rookies with a snake draft, sign the rest like the NFL – free agency at Reality Sports Online. Photo by John Martinez-Paviliga

Contract/Auction Strategy

A good example of this contract strategy in play is how an owner chooses to award its multi-year deals. Some owners will regard a stud like Calvin Johnson as player they will try to sign with a four-year deal. This makes sense: the longer the deal, the less money paid per year and the easier it is on your cap room if Johnson continues to have the same quality career for the next four years.

The risk is if Johnson gets hurt or under performs. Then you’re in a deal that’s costing you money over the next four years and you’ll still have some of this money on your books during that time even if you cut Johnson. All of this is calculated for you on the site, so it’s not something you have to dwell on until it’s time to start thinking about roster moves. You don’t have to be a capologist to play this game, but it spells out the details so you feel like you’re one.

Another strategy could be to sign young, ascending talents to long-term deals. Perhaps you love T.Y. Hilton’s game or you think Russell Wilson is about to reach Drew Brees territory and you want to sign them at a minimal cost and hope they become studs after you locked them into a bargain rate. Of course, the risk is they never take that next step and you’ve tied up mediocre talent.

These contracts become more important when making trades, dropping/adding players, and how much money you have available for future rookie drafts and free agent auctions. This is where RSO’s format takes on some of the realism of the NFL.

Let’s say Michael Floyd has a break-out year opposite Larry Fitzgerald now that Carson Palmer is in Arizona and Bruce Arians drafted a couple of guards. If a team only signed Floyd to a 1-year deal, they might not be able to afford to get him back in 2014 and could lose him to a team with a lot of cap room at that point.

Waldman’s RSO Writer’s League Strategy: Rookie Draft and Free Agent Auction

Here’s the basics about this 14-team league:

Scoring Basics

  • PPR w/a 1-point bonus after 10 receptions
  • 4 pts/Pass TD; 6 pts/Rush-Rec TDs
  • Points bonuses at 100, 150, and 200 yards rushing and receiving
  • Points bonuses at 300, 350, and 400 yards passing
  • Penalties for interceptions

Roster, Draft, and Cap/Contract Basics

  • Starting lineups: 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 Flex (WR/TE), 1 DEF, 1 K
  • 30 Roster spots and 3 IR spots
  • Five-round, serpentine rookie draft (no trades)
  • Each team has the following number of multi-year contracts available in the Free Agent Auction Draft
    • 4-year Free Agency Contracts (1)
    • 3 -year Free Agency Contracts (2)
    • 2 -year Free Agency Contracts (3)
    • 1-year contracts (19)
  • Note: rookie contracts in the serpentine draft are all three-year deals at a tiered value according to draft spot. Rookie contracts offered in the free agency draft are “free agent deals,” which means it can be a multi-year deal or a one-year deal based on bid.

I had the eight-spot in this 14-team rookie draft and I stuck close to the RSP Post-Draft playbook with one major exception:

  • 1.08 – WR Keenan Allen
  • 2.07 – WR Da’Rick Rogers
  • 3.08 – WR Marquess Wilson
  • 4.07 – TE Luke Willson
  • 5.08 – QB Sean Renfree

While RSO allows for a third running back as a flex-play in its league setup options, I personally dislike it. There’s something that goes against my football aesthetic when I see fantasy leagues with a third running back. I play in them all the time, but since this was “my” league I got to make the rules.

The strategic influence of this wrinkle to starting lineups is that receiver and tight end depth become a little more important if thinking long-term. On the one hand, running backs tend to make a bigger impact early so I can see how drafting backs makes more sense in a league like this because at least you get a year or two of strong production from a top-end runner before they become free agents and the market value sky-rockets. Receivers, tight ends, and quarterbacks might take a few years and never deliver a return on investment with your squad.

As I finish writing this last paragraph I wonder if I didn’t make a mistake to take running backs with Lacy, Lattimore, Franklin, and Stacy all on the board. However, those were the only backs left in the first round who I felt have a strong chance to make an impact in the first three seasons and not enough to dislodge me from Allen.

Rogers has the kind of upside to render draft status useless. Photo by Wade Rackley.
Rogers has the kind of upside to render draft status useless. Photo by Wade Rackley.

Rookie Thoughts

Keenan Allen: This is a PPR league with yards and reception bonuses and I think Allen has the type of versatile skill set to see a lot of targets from the slot, but also used on the perimeter. I regard Allen as a player similar to Michael Crabtree, but with more upside due to his quarterback. All apologies to Colin Kapernick, who is a promising young player, but Phillip Rivers is a better down field passer and at this point a savvier quarterback.  The San Diego offense under Mike McCoy should feature enough short passing for Allen to provide quality fantasy production this year. As a player whose draft stock was littered with risk, I see Allen as one of the safer picks in this draft class.

Da’Rick Rogers: Once Travis Kelce and Stedman Bailey left with the picks just ahead of me, I opted for the upside of Rogers. Steve Johnson’s recurrent groin issues and the lack of quality receivers in this depth chart before the 2013 NFL Draft make this a nice landing spot for the rookie. Rogers reminds me of a mix of Dwayne Bowe and Terrell Owens. If Rogers even approaches these comps, I have a player with 70-catch potential and the skills to be the most productive receiver on this Bills team. I think Robert Woods is a better technician and will see the most time this year among the rookies if Johnson can stay healthy. However, Johnson’s leg issue could open the door for Rogers in 2014 if the rookie behaves.

Marquess Wilson: There’s a common theme with my first three picks. All three are wide receivers with first- or second-round talent who slid due to factors outside game film study in the pre-draft evaluation process. At just 20 years of age, Wilson will have three years of NFL experience by the time most players his age get drafted. My hope is that Wilson doesn’t break my heart by coming into his own late in year three when I can’t reap any return on him. I think he’s a great fit for Jay Cutler and capable of stepping into the starting lineup this year if called upon. I love his ability to adjust to the ball. He makes a lot of tough catches and can play outside or in the slot due to his quickness. If he can take this difficult year and turn it into a learning experience, he could be the most productive receiver I drafted on this list. I think Marc Trestman and the Bears have similar sentiments.

Luke Willson: Wilson fits the athletic profile of tight end capable of developing into a primary contributor in fantasy leagues.   His 4.5-speed the body of an in-line tight end is every bit as promising as his Rice teammate Vance McDonald, but an ankle injury prevented Willson from making the same impression on NFL teams last year. He made an early impact in mini camp and at this point, I decided to take the chance on Willson’s prospects of developing into a high-end TE1 rather than settling for prospects at the position that I rated higher, but have less upside.

Sean Renfree: Admittedly this probably a wasted pick.  Renfree and Wilson are why I wish I opted for four-year contracts for rookies instead of three. I think the Duke quarterback has the skills to earn the No.2 role in Atlanta this year if he can return from a torn pectoral muscle by July. If not, I still think he can do enough to earn the No.3 spot and work his way into the backup role by 2014. I’m banking on a chance for Renfree to showcase his wares in preseason or a Matt Ryan injury so Renfree can attract a market once he becomes a free agent. I also planned to take Matt Ryan but I execute as well as I should and Football Diehards owner Bob Harris earn Ryan at a steal.  More below.

Pre-Auction Strategy

The running joke in the auction chat room was that by the time we figured out the best ways to approach this league, we’d be halfway through the auction and without the funds to do anything about it.  Looking back at my pre-auction strategy I would say my experience was not the same. I had a good clue, but my poor analysis of my cap hindered my execution.

With just one, four-year deal I hoped to spend it on a quarterback. They have the longest fantasy lifespan of any position and it made the most sense to anchor a high-end starter at that position to my roster for multiple years. The two players I decided to target were Matt Ryan and Russell Wilson. If I could land one at a reasonable price with my four-year deal, I’d feel great about the long-term outlook of my team.

I also wanted one stud at running back and wide receiver signed to a deal of no less than a two-years so my team can have a chance to remain competitive as my one-year contracts turn over in 2014 and my rookies continue to develop. These are the two positions I hoped to acquire the most depth – especially at receiver. I believe wide outs are the easiest to trade and I want to afford myself flexibility to make deals.

As for executing an auction for your team, there are three basic ways to do it:

  • Studs and Duds: Spend a high percentage of cap on a few big-name starters and then pay the minimum for a supporting cast and depth. This is the most aggressive approach. I won three writers leagues in two years with this technique but its name would be more apt as Studs or Duds because it’s often either/or as a team outcome with this approach.
  • Middle of the Road: This technique is about setting hard budgets for players and pacing yourself. You don’t go over certain bid amounts. The downside is you rarely land the known studs, but the upside is that you acquire quality depth and spread a number of viable options across your starting lineup. If your fantasy performers demonstrate week-to-week consistency at a high level, you have a winner.
  • Control the End: My friend, Footballguys.com co-owner, and one-time, regular auction competitor David Dodds loves to wait until the rest of the league has spent enough of its cap for him to maintain control of the auction and win the discount deals – and there are always enough – to build a quality team. Dodds loves to talk ridiculous trash to his competition. It’s a common joke among those of us who draft with him that he’s still picking from his top-50 list 200 picks into a draft.

Personally, I try to incorporate a mix of the first two methods. I aim for at least two studs and then opt for mid-level starters – mid-range WR2s and RB2s, and low-end QB1s and TE1s – hoping that half of them have strong years. Then I try to stay patient long enough to have some money at the end and pick a few late-round hopefuls with high upside.

The problem with auction drafts is that I don’t do them as much as I’d like. They are by far my favorite form of league, but time constraints limit me from joining new leagues. If I can convince half of my leagues to adopt this format, I’d be pleased.

Until then, I don’t get as much practice with auctions as I’d like and there are pitfalls I have to be especially careful to avoid:

  • Impulse Buying: It’s easy to get an itchy trigger finger in the opening 50 picks when you see stud after stud coming off the board and you have all of your money in your pocket. I don’t mind paying premium for a couple of players, but when a “couple” is used casually to mean “3 or 4” you can derail your strategy really fast.
  • Trigger Shyness: For me, this happens when I don’t feel clear about player value once the bidding comes down to me and another owner over a player. A couple of seconds of hesitation can cost you a good deal despite a bidding war that seems to go on for minutes at a time.
  • Sticking It to Yourself: One of my favorite aspects about auction leagues is watching owners engage in the practice of increasing the bid on players to police other owners from earning deep discounts. Jim Day and Chad Parsons’ were the best at this on Friday night. They jacked up bid after bid, but made deft exits at the right time to make sure their opponents paid at least what the player was worth – if not more. The danger is that if you pick the wrong player to enforce this strategy, you can get stuck with a guy you don’t want.

In an auction with fantasy writers these practices can get magnified if you’re not careful. Especially with wily vets like Bob Harris, who claims he’s never drafted in an auction league. The Hall of Fame fantasy writer (yes, there is such a distinction) is not a shark as much as he’s a spider with a lair somewhere in the southwest. He spins a really pretty web . . .

Bob Harris stole Matt Ryan and I was the Keystone Cops. Photo by Football Schedule.
Bob Harris stole Matt Ryan and I was the Keystone Cops. Photo by Football Schedule.

My Auction 

I won’t know until I dig deeper into the rest of the rosters, but at first glance I feel better about my team than I did during the auction. I made three mistakes during my draft – one from each category above – and I nearly hamstrung my efforts. Yet, I pulled out some solid deals in the mid-to-late rounds. Perhaps my marathon film study sessions helped me as my competition get sharper as others faded into the night.  Probably not, but it sounds good.

I will be profiling other teams soon. Here are links to the league’s rosters and the auction results. For the info displayed below The contract amount is in increments of millions.  The “R” next to player’s names is for “reserve” a designation based on my potential starting lineup. If there is an “R” in the $ box then it means they were a rookie draft pick with a designated salary by spot in the serpentine draft.

Quarterback Yrs $ Running Back Yrs $ Wide Receiver Yrs $
Jay Cutler (CHI) 1 4.0 Arian Foster (HOU) 2 51.0 Calvin Johnson (DET) 2 69.5
Carson Palmer (ARI) R 1 3.0 Steven Jackson (ATL) 1 16.5 Cecil Shorts (JAC) 4 18.5
Alex Smith (KC) R 2 2.5 Ryan Williams (ARI) R 1 2.5 DeSean Jackson (PHI) 3 10.5
Sean Renfree (ATL) R 3 R Ben Tate (HOU) R 3 7.5 Keenan Allen (SD) 3 R
Alex Green (GB) R 1 0.5 LaVon Brazill (IND) R 1 0.5
Shaun Draughn (KC) R 1 0.5 Marvin Jones (CIN) R 1 1.0
Cedric Peerman (CIN) R 1 0.5 Domenik Hixon (CAR) R 1 0.5
Bobby Rainey (BAL) R 1 0.5 Earl Bennett (CHI) R 1 0.5
Marquess Wilson (CHI) R 3 R
Da’Rick Rogers (BUF) R 3 R
Kenbrell Thompkins (NE) R 1 0.5

Quarterbacks

Here’s where I made the biggest auction gaffe for my team. I got into a bidding war with Bob Harris for Matt Ryan. Mike MacGregor recently acquired Tom Brady with a three-year deal for $40 million. I’d say a deal that comes out at a little more than $13.3 million per year for Brady is a strong buy – even at Brady’s age.

As the competition dropped to the wayside on Ryan, Harris and I were creeping north of $30 million and I hesitated on Ryan’s value. I didn’t have a clear cut-off on Ryan. Was it too much? Clock ticking . . . Didn’t Brady go off the board for more? Clock ticking . . .What was that amount again? 4 . . . 3 . . . Should I use a four-year or three-year deal? 2 . . .

I click the four-year deal, but not in enough time and Harris signs Ryan – perhaps the quarterback in the NFL with the best mix of consistency, years left, upside, and surrounding talent in the league for a paltry $31.5 million for 3 years.

Steal.

I’m a little upset with myself at this point, but Russell Wilson is still left in the auction. The problem is that the next owner smartly nominates Russell Wilson immediately after Harris nabs Ryan, which means Wilson is now in a pool with a bunch of owners who just woke up and realized they let Ryan go off the board for a song.

I realized right after losing the Ryan bid that I was willing to pay $14-15 million per year for the Falcons quarterback so I will probably have to pay at least that much for Wilson based on what just happened. Sure enough the bidding comes down to me and Officer Jim Day of the RSO Writers League Bidding Police Precinct 411.

Within seconds Day and I raise Wilson’s price from $9 million per year to $12 million and climbing. When we reach $15 million per year – alternating with 3- and 4-year offers – I’m stretching beyond my comfort zone because I already spent big money on two other players. Ultimately, I decided to stand down on Wilson and Day landed the Seahawk as his backup to Peyton Manning with a 4-year deal at $63.5 million (total).

Day will have trade bait with that four-year deal if he wants to dangle it. So I opted for plan B – a quarterback by committee with two players I think have a realistic shot at low-end QB1 production and the talent to deliver even more to fantasy owners if the offensive lines improve: Jay Cutler and Carson Palmer for a combined $7 million. While it’s half the price of Wilson – it’s conceivable I get half the quarterback play, too.

Still, I feel good about what’s happening in Chicago with Marc Trestman as the architect and I like the possibilities the Cardinals have with Palmer, Floyd, Fitzgerald, and most important, the upgrades along the offensive line.  I wish I didn’t have to talk about Alex Smith, but “what had happened was . . . ” I tried to increase the bid on Smith early and realized I was doing so with Alex Smith.

Don’t get me wrong, Palmer and Cutler could get hurt by mid season if the Bears and Cardinals offensive lines revert to recent form so Smith could be useful. I also paid a whopping $2 million for 2 years. It may not be what I meant to do, but it was a minor mistake compared to letting Matt Ryan slip in the dark of night to Harris.

cropped-troy-polamalu-by-karen-blaha1.jpg

Running Backs

I had to nab a stud here. I could have gone with a younger guy with upside, but decided I didn’t want to be a part of a bidding war for Trent Richardson or Doug Martin. Football Outsiders writer Rivers McCown nabbed Martin for a reasonable $67.5 million for 3 years, paying somewhere around $22 million of his current year cap as guaranteed money for 2013. This actually looked like a nice deal  compared to what Jason Wood shelled out for Adrian Peterson – a two-year signing for $71 million.

It was on the heels of that Peterson deal that Arian Foster hit the block and instead of trying to slow roll the bid a little higher and hope I got a deal, I decided to go strong to the hole and hope my competition would hesitate. My competition was still messing around with contracts for $4 million when I upped the number to a two-year, $40 million deal.

If I remember correctly, most of the bids dropped out and after the next competing bid that inched skyward of $41 million, I came hard over the top again with $50 and wound up winning at 2 years, $51 million for Foster. Not a great deal compared to Martin or even Mike MacGregor’s, 4-year $97 million signing of Trent Richardson at a little less per year for twice the tenure, but Harris has a two-year deal on Jamaal Charles for $60.5 million and Tim Stafford has C.J. Spiller at 3 years, $75 million.

I can live with what I paid for Foster – especially for two years.

Steven Jackson at one year for $16.5 million seems pricey for his recent performances in St. Louis, but if you think he still has the juice for at least one more year then he’s at least as skilled as Michael Turner – the Atlanta runner, who had at least 1300 yards and double-digit touchdowns in three of his four seasons between 2009-2011.

I’ll pay $16.5 million for that kind of production. Heck, I’ll pay it for top-20 production for one year and that’s what Turner delivered last year despite a more pass happy system and operating at a step slower than he appeared in the past.

Ben Tate fortunately didn’t get added to the block right after Foster joined my team or else I probably would have to pay a little more. As Lance Zierlein noted, getting Tate at three years, $7.5 million is a nice deal considering that he’ll be a free agent in 2014. I’m not a huge Tate fan, but I have to agree.

Few backs move to a new team in recent years and become studs. Michael Turner, Marshawn Lynch, and Reggie Bush come to mind and they are the minority.  However, even if Tate joins a committee the price is still good value.

Ryan Williams’ stock is at rock bottom. He’s coming off his second injury in two years and Bruce Arians named Rashard Mendenhall the starter. Still, Williams  has starter talent. Arizona’s upgrades make me feel like I could get $2.5 million dollar’s worth (at least) from a finally healthy Williams as my second back off the bench.

Alex Green is a cheap option who still has a chance to make the team. We’ll see if he’s finally healthy enough to compete at the level he’s capable. Shaun Draughn surprised me last year. I saw him at North Carolina and thought he was a good, but not great college runner. He looks a lot quicker than I remember from his days in Chapel Hill. He might still give the Chiefs competition a run for that No.2 spot. Cedric Peerman and Bobby Rainey are two players I believe have the talent, but lack the opportunity.

I just realized I have three receivers from Cal on my squad. DeSean Jackson needs to play to that form to help me contend. Photo by Avinashkunnath.
I just realized I have three receivers from Cal on my squad. DeSean Jackson needs to play to that form to help me contend. Photo by Avinashkunnath.

Wide Receiver

I probably overpaid for Calvin Johnson. My deal came on the heels of Lance Zierlein giving up $92.5 million for three years. I should have resisted, but I admit that I got impulsive with the prospect of having Johnson on my team. He has been a top-five fantasy receiver for three straight years, he’s been the top fantasy receiver overall for two years straight (even with only 5 touchdowns in 2012), and he’s winning against triple coverage. He’ll be 28 in September. If there’s a player in a PPR league worth this kind of money, Johnson is it.

Although I paid a premium for the best wide receiver in football I did have some pleasant surprises in the middle rounds. My four-year deal went to a player I didn’t anticipate signing: Cecil Shorts. A polarizing player in the fantasy community, Shorts has big-play skills but spotty quarterback play has some people down on the receiver’s future. Chase Stuart gives a balanced opinion with the stats and some context to the numbers. At 4 years, $18.5 million I paid for a young player with high-end No.2 upside without a good quarterback at a No.3 receiver price point.

I also think DeSean Jackson could be a steal at $10.5 million over 3 years. I’m not chest-thumping this signing yet, because he hasn’t had starter numbers since 2011 and he hasn’t truly played like one since 2010. If he an return to 2009-2010 form, I’ll have a formidable corps at a bargain – even with Calvin Johnson.

Bryan Fontaine has one of my favorite receiving trios in this league: Dwayne Bowe, Larry Fitzgerald, and Dez Bryant for a total of $108.5 million. My trio has the potential to match that production as a unit at a $10 million savings. I also have two of my deals of at least three years whereas Fontaine only has one deal over two years. I’m not trying to tell you that my corps is better than Fontaine’s group, but I’m not as far away as it appears on paper.

Domenik Hixon is skilled enough to win the slot job in Carolina and even outplay Brandon LaFell. The rest of my wideouts are RSP favorites with chances to earn playing time this year: Marvin Jones, LaVon Brazill, and Earl Bennett all have potential to contribute and they’re excellent players with the ball in the air.

Can't go wrong with this VD. Photo by The Bay Area Bias.
Can’t go wrong with this VD even if I went wrong with Smith. Photo by The Bay Area Bias.
Tight End Yrs $ Kicker Yrs $ Defense Yrs $
Vernon Davis (SF) 1 8.0 Sebastian Janikowski (OAK) 1 0.5 Seattle 1 2.5
Dwayne Allen (IND) R 1 2.5 Robbie Gould (CHI) R 1 0.5 Detroit 1 0.5
Luke Willson (SEA) R 3 R

Tight Ends, Kickers, and Defenses

If Vernon Davis produces like he did during the 2012 season, I overpaid. If Davis plays like has in the postseason, I’ll have a bargain. I think he’s the best all-around tight end in football, but he doesn’t get the chance to show it as a receiver due to quarterback play. Hopefully Kaepernick continues to find Davis like he did in January. I’m a Dwayne Allen fan and I believe he’ll provide good bye-week value.

Janikowski and Gould are like the Odd Couple. One is on a team that might have trouble scoring but can boot it from 60 yards. The other lacks great range, but should see more opportunities due to the offense. I’ll roll with these two for a total of $1 million.

I paid about twice as much for Seattle than I wanted, but it’s another case of paying for value. Detroit is my bye-week option.

Team Outlook

I’m not going to say my team is a great contender. If I got Matt Ryan or Russell Wilson I think I’d feel a little more confident. As it stands, I think my team is in the middle of the pack. The upside of I think Johnson, Foster, and Steven Jackson will keep me competitive as long as I get similar play from Cecil Shorts and Vernon Davis at their best stretches of 2012. If Cutler, Palmer, or DeSean Jackson play to their potential I’ll have a real shot.

Stay tuned this week for more analysis of RSO teams and try a league. Use the promotion code RSP20%OFF to earn a 20 percent discount.