Posts tagged Matt Waldman Footballguys

The Gut Check No.292: A Trip to The Thrift Store

Jones-Drew-Maurice

Fantasy football in May is a month dominated by rookie coverage. It’s a good time to hit the thrift store and shop for values on a longer development curve.

 

Thrift stores are awesome. I arrived at this conclusion somewhat late in life. I held the assumption that the items in these stores were someone else’s rejects.

This is both true and false. The close might not have been wanted, but it had nothing to do with quality or even style. Your stubborn Uncle Jake only wears Wrangler jeans and refused to even try on the pair of Lucky’s that his sister in-law gave him for Christmas. Grandpa Kevin liked the Polo sweater, but it was three sizes too big and he didn’t want to make a fuss about it on his Birthday. Or, your Cousin Rick would have put that dress shirt you got at the men’s shop to good use if he hadn’t decided to cash in his chips as partner of an accounting firm and join the park service as a tour guide.

Fantasy football has a similar dynamic. Rookies are the rage from February through August. Everyone wants to find the first-year players who will have an immediate impact. But fantasy owners often forget about the young veterans who didn’t play well–or even play at all–as rookies. Some owners even write off these second, third, or fourth-year players developing on a slower learning curve or stuck behind a crowded depth chart.

This week, I’m checking in with these players. We can categorize them in four ways:

  1. Emerging – Talents likely to contribute or start this year.
  2. Progressing – Players who still appear on track to become starters or contributors within a year or two.
  3. Covered – Personnel with talent, but stuck on crowded depth charts.
  4. Crossroads – Prospects who might be in make or break seasons in the NFL.

Remember, you don’t always have to buy when you shop. Even if you don’t invest in any of these players, it’s a good idea to monitor their progress and research them during the spring and summer. The earlier become conversant with the potential of backups, the sooner you’ll be able to anticipate and react to changes on the fantasy landscape.

Say Drew Brees suffers a shoulder sprain in practice in mid-October. You could wait until Friday to read the first article sharing basics about Griffin that probably took longer for the writer to write than it would take for you to Google. By then, you might have lost a shot at Griffin in a league with a first come, first serve waiver wire.

Or you could have been aware of Griffin this summer, made it a point to watch him in the preseason, and knew right away to add the Saints’ backup so you could either use him or trade him. Fantasy football has a more level playing field thanks to our ever evolving technology. However, it still takes effort to read the right things and with enough advanced notice to plan ahead.

Reading about these young players provides a foundation of knowledge to build on when training camp and preseason games begin. As everyone else is still learning about the talent, whether its buying or selling them, you’re already making moves with the pieces to your advantage.

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Mike Glennon Preview

Is QB Mike Glennon a draft-not-to-lose pick? If he goes in the first two rounds, I think so. Photo by Akulawolf.
Is QB Mike Glennon a draft-not-to-lose pick? If he goes in the first two rounds, I think so. Photo by Akulawolf.

I’m cautiously optimistic about Mike Glennon’s game thus far. He’s making sound decisions for the Buccaneers and when under heavy pressure, he’s doing a better job of throwing the ball away or taking the sack rather than throwing the ball up for grabs. However, the reason Glennon is performing so well is the team doing a great job of its play calling and giving the rookie time to make decisions at relaxed pace compared to many NFL passers. In essence the Buccaneers are a great fit for a play-not-to-lose style. Here’s a taste of the breakdown of Mike Glennon and why he’s been successful this season. The rest you can read as a Footballguys subscriber.

Why Mike Glennon Is Succeeding

I’m cautiously optimistic about Mike Glennon’s game thus far. He’s making sound decisions for the Buccaneers and when under heavy pressure, he’s doing a better job of throwing the ball away or taking the sack rather than throwing the ball up for grabs. However, the reason Glennon is performing so well is the team doing a great job of its play calling and giving the rookie time to make decisions at relaxed pace compared to many NFL passers.

Greg Cosell made headlines about saying Glennon was ahead of Robert Griffin III in his development, but it’s really no surprise. Griffin is playing in an offense that makes far different demands than the traditional pocket game that Glennon has always used and without a summer of practice, Griffin’s development has stalled a year.

The combination of the pass protection, play action game, and smart play calls according to down and distance are helping Glennon use his big arm and decent mobility. Yet, I don’t want to downplay Glennon. If he can continue to make smart decisions during the next 2-3 seasons of his development, he has shown enough for the Buccaneers to invest in him as a long-term starter.

The pervading theme for Glennon is time and space. Give the rookie these two resources and he has the basic skills – and a fine arm – to move an offense. Here’s a 3rd-and-six pass where the Buccaneers begin in an 10 personnel 3×1 receiver set and shift running back Brian Leonard to the trips side tight to the formation. The aim is to flood the Lions’ zone, create a breakdown in coverage, and generate a wide-open receiver.

The offensive line does a fine job of keeping the pocket clean and providing a great deal of space for Glennon to survey the field and step into any throw.

This is not the kind of pocket space we’re typically seeing in Washington or locales like Jacksonville or Pittsburgh. Give a quarterback this much space and he better find an open receiver or at least make a pinpoint throw to lead a receiver to open space.

The amount of time that the Tampa offensive line provides Glennon on this play allows the rookie quarterback to wait for Tim Wright, the rookie tight end, to finish his stem and break on a deeper in route. Wright, a slow possession receiver at Rutgers, has average speed for a move tight end.

Note the room Glennon has to step into this throw. No defender is in Glennon’s path to force the quarterback to alter his stride and follow-through. Plus, there’s a huge passing lane in the middle of the line for the quarterback to deliver the ball.

It’s a picture-perfect delivery that looks like something seen at a football practice, not an NFL pocket. The pass travels 21 yards on a rope to Wright.

The Gut Check No.279 – Assessing the Quarter Pole of the Fantasy Season

Would you ride or die this season with Wilson? Andrew Brown out. Photo by Football Schedule.
Would you ride or die this season with Wilson? Andrew Brown out. Photo by Football Schedule.

Leave at the curb? Wait a few more miles? Ride or die? Which call should you make with these worrisome players? Matt Waldman scouts the fantasy football landscape at the season’s quarter pole.

Stranded With Bramel: A true Story

This week’s Gut Check begins with a true story (except for one name change – and it’s not the car) that may not seem like it has anything to do with fantasy football, but I promise it does. Stay with me here. It will all be clear soon enough.

Whether it’s a new destination or an old familiar place, there’s nothing more fun than a road trip with friends. Even a familiar journey can present the unexpected. Sometimes these unforeseen events will force its traveler’s to make difficult choices. Take this year’s Senior Bowl trip with Jene Bramel.

Last January was the good doctor’s second trip to Mobile, Alabama to cover the all-star game’s practices with me and Cecil Lammey for the New York Times, the Rookie Scouting Portfolio, and Lammey’s ESPN affiliate. Usually, I pick up everyone at the Atlanta airport and I drive the team to Mobile. Lammey had to make other plans this year so it was Jene and I making the drive.

I’ve been chauffeuring the crew to Mobile and around town for the past five years. Despite odd stories like late-night scavenger hunts for reliable wireless that once led us to an empty Hooter’s parking lot after hours just to file those New York Times practice reports, it has always been an easy gig to be the driver. Even so I had the feeling I should consider renting an SUV last year.

The reason is that I bought a used Prius six months earlier. It works great around town and I even drove it to Memphis without issue on a summer trip with Alicia. However, it’s the Tashard Choice of cars: It’s small, it lacks acceleration, and no one’s really comfortable with the idea of having it carry the offense.

My particular Prius also has two quirks. One is that it has a name. Alicia likes to name machines. I think it’s a backwoods way of respecting the tools you’re fortunate to acquire. We call him Pete.

Pete’s other quirk is his gas gauge. While it’s cool that he gets me 46-50 miles to the gallon on a routine basis, Pete’s gauge doesn’t make a gradual drop from full to empty as you drive him. Instead, Pete will act like he still has a full tank for at least 500 miles. Then with 3-5 miles of gas left in the tank, he drops the gauge to one square above empty.

Imagine Tashard Choice getting 20 touches, looking like he’s capable of 25 more, and at touch number 22 he has a narcoleptic episode just as the ball arrives during the exchange on a toss sweep. While I knew Pete’s gauge wasn’t reliable, I track the odometer well enough to hit the gas station with at least 25-30 miles to spare. But on this Sunday afternoon in the middle of Alabama countryside, Pete conked out on Bamel and me two miles from the nearest exit.

Lot’s of decisions to make at this point: Call USAA? Call a wrecker? Walk to the exit? Go together?

My decision? Leave the northern guy in the deep south on the side of the road (sorry, Jen) to watch the car while I take off running for the exit. A quarter-mile down the road, a car with a trailer pulls to the shoulder waiting for me, windows open, blaring Styx’s “Renegade”.

Countryside. Car out of gas. Stranger offering ride in vehicle blaring song about impending death. It’s a cliche moment of a horror flick.

“I saw your car by the side of the road do you need a ride?” shouts the man over the music. He’s no more than five years older than I am, fit, weekend stubble, looks a little nervous as he’s also sizing me up. Good sign. Another good sign? A sudden wave of panic registers across his face when he realizes that not only is the radio still on, but he’s about to offer a ride to a stranger with Hangman coming down from the gallows and I don’t have very long blasting from his speakers.

“Yep. Ran out of gas. I just need to get to the next exit. What’s your name?” I ask as he tells me his name is Rick. My brain is saying this isn’t a good idea, but my gut is telling me everything’s cool. Still my brain needs a hedge. “Yeah, we’re on assignment with the New York Times for the Senior Bowl in Mobile. They’re expecting us to meet the rest of the team and file a report tonight. What do you do, Rick?”

Rick’s face softens a bit and he looks more relaxed. Meanwhile my cell phone is buzzing in my pocket.

“The Senior Bowl, huh? Good deal. I’m an ER nurse,” Rick says, explaining that it’s his day off and he’s getting ready to do some work on the house. “Was just coming back from Lowe’s when I spotted your car and your friend on the side of the road.”

I get in the car and five minutes later we’re at the only gas station in a 10-15 mile radius and they don’t have a gas canister. I buy two large jugs of distilled water, empty them in front of the gas pump, fill them with fuel in front of the state trooper who does nothing, and we head back for the car. However, we have to drive another three miles past the car because his trailer won’t navigate the median on a U-Turn.

This of course elicits another round of cell phone buzzing as we pass Bramel sitting in the sun with his iPad in the grass as he watches us pass him. We make it to Pete. I introduce the doc to the nurse, they talk shop as I fill the car and make sure it starts, we thank Rick, and we’re on our way.

In the car and on our way, Bramel and I have a few realizations. First, I’m an idiot. Not only do I leave Bramel stranded roadside without a key to the car when we have a chance to call USAA and perhaps have to wait a half-hour longer for a ride to the gas station, but I risk never being seen again after entering a car that’s too far away for Bramel to make out.

Second, I at least had some shred of common sense to invoke our affiliation with the world’s most recognized newspaper so our driver is on notice that we’ll be missed if we go missing. Third, I luck out that the driver is a good guy; an ER nurse who was equally unsure about offering a ride to a 40-something dude with a five days of scruff and sporting sunglasses and a Beast Mode t-shirt.

What does this have to do with worrisome players? First, most of you have at least one player making you feel like an idiot after the first three weeks of the season. Second, you at least have some shred of common sense or intuition about how to handle it. Third, you lucked out that I’m not playing Renegade as I write this article.

Fourth, you need to figure out if each player in this week’s Gut Check is someone you should leave at the curb, hang in there for a few more miles, or decide you’re going to ride or die with them. I’m stating my case for each but remember I’m the same guy ran out of gas in a Prius, left Jene Bramel stranded, didn’t answer my cell phone, and took a ride from a stranger.

Of course, I’m here to tell you about it which should tell you I’m either good or I’m lucky. At this point, does it matter which one it is? I didn’t think so. Let’s get started.

Leave At the Curb: Too Risky

RB Stevan RidleyIt’s not the 3.4 yards per carry or the ball security issues that have me worried about Ridley. He’s still a tough runner with burst. It’s the one reception for eight yards in three games versus Brandon Bolden‘s five catches in one week. The Patriots don’t use him in the passing game. Bolden’s 49 yards on 5 receptions is just 2 yards and 1 reception fewer than Ridley’s 2012 receiving total.

Granted, Ridley was the No.10 fantasy runner last year with that paltry total. However, Bolden ate into Ridley’s time when he was healthy last year and Vereen also battled health issues.

Read the rest at Footballguys.com

The Gut Check No. 274 – Upside Down From The 12-Spot

Clayton Gray is 23-3 when he hasn't drafted a RB before round 5. Helllooo Demayrius. Photo by Jeffery Beall.
Clayton Gray is 23-3 when he hasn’t drafted a RB before round 5. Helllooo Demaryius. Photo by Jeffery Beall.

Are you Down With . . .

The other night, Footballguys’ Manager Clayton Gray emailed me his satirical paean to Naughty By Nature and the Upside Down Strategy with a link to the team he drafted in the 2013 Huddle Experts’ League.

Gray, who won the league in 2012, told me he is 23-3 the past two years and hasn’t drafted a running back before the fifth round.

Early round running backs are like pacifiers to some fantasy owners. But the illusion of playing it safe rarely creates exceptional results. There’s only one winner in fantasy football, and I know owners – whether they know it or not – who draft like their primary goal is to make the playoffs. In fact, I’d argue most of us do.

The primary motivation is to build a team good enough to earn a playoff spot. Then as the playoffs get closer, focus on refining that roster to contend for a championship. I think the underlying thought is to make the playoffs so you don’t look like a bad fantasy football player.

And that’s playing it safe.

Football fans who play fantasy football absorb the same mentality that NFL teams have: you’re great if you win a championship; you’re very good if you go to the championship; you’re good if you make the playoffs; and you’re not good if you miss the playoffs.

It doesn’t help that most fantasy leagues award money for making the playoffs or scoring the most points. This is an incentive to be good, but not great; play it safe, but don’t go for greatness; and win, but only if you don’t have to risk losing big.

It’s not a popular line of thought, but there’s truth in those words.

In a year where the pervading thought is to take running backs early, acquire a stud tight end, and wait on quarterbacks and wide receivers, the radical approach is to acquire the best non-runners for your starting lineup and use the middle and late rounds to acquire a block of runners for your roster. The fundamental reason for this approach’s efficacy is the short career span, high rate of injury, and fairly high turnover within the top-12 and top-24 rankings of running backs from one year to the next. I call this the Upside Down Draft Strategy. You can find details here.

Most of you already get the gist of this strategy. You’re here to find out which middle and late-round runners I’m touting for your drafts this month. I’m writing three articles to profile these backs within the context of walking you through multiple Upside Down Draft plans – the first one at the early turn (1st overall pick); the second with a middle pick (6th spot); and the final strategy at the turn (12th spot) – so you can see how it all fits together.

I think this strategy is best-suited for the following league formats:

  • PPR leagues with lineups of 1QB/2RBs/3WR/1TE.
  • PPR leagues with lineups as above, but with a flex at RB, WR, or TE.
  • Premium PPR leagues with 1.5 points for TE and a flex at RB, WR, or TE.
  • Non-PPR leagues with 1QB/2RB/4WR/1TE and a flex at RB, WR, or TE.

Gray’s team has Calvin Johnson, Demaryius Thomas, and Julio Jones and got these three receivers drafting from the 1.02 spot. Today we’re looking at options from the opposite turn.

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