Posts tagged Matt Waldman Futures

Futures: Arkansas RB Knile Davis

March 6, 2013 0 Comments read Players

Shonn Greene wouldn't be my player comp for Knile Davis, but I understand the reasoning. Photo by Matt Britt. — Shonn Greene wouldn’t be my player comp for Knile Davis, but I understand the reasoning. Photo by Matt Britt.

When I saw the 2012 Lewin Career Forecast, I had already studied Russell Wilson. In fact, I told a panel of draft analysts on a National Football Post podcast (beginning at the 17:42 mark) that included Josh Norris, Wes Bunting, and Josh Buchanan that Wilson was my sleeper quarterback in this draft. I was cynical that Wilson would be picked before the third round, but once Seattle opted for the N.C. State-Wisconsin quarterback, my immediate thought was that Wilson would be a pivotal test case against height bias in the NFL.

I think there’s another potential test case in the draft this year, but on the opposite end of the spectrum when it comes to the dilemma of prototypical skills vs. prototypical measurements. The lead actor in this draft-day drama could be Knile Davis. If an NFL team selects Davis in the first three rounds of this draft, it will be a telling indication that they relied more on Davis’ Combine performance –- and to some degree sabermetrics –- than the opinions of scouts and draft analysts who lean hard on the game tape.

Davis was an All-SEC selection in 2010, rushing for 1322 yards and scoring 13 touchdowns. In 2011, the Arkansas running back missed the season with a broken ankle. Davis underwhelmed in 2012, losing the starting job to reserve Dennis Johnson and only showing flashes of what he did in 2010.

Fast forward to the 2013 NFL Combine, and the 227-pound runner put on a show: a 4.37 40-yard dash and 31 reps on the bench press. It was an impressive performance that vaulted Davis atop Football Outsiders’ Speed Score metric for running backs. According to Danny Tuccitto, a Speed score below 80 is “a giant red flag,” a 100 Speed Score is “average,” and “anything above 120 serving as a giant neon sign.”

This makes Davis’ Speed Score, “off-the-charts good.” If you listen to Davis talk about NFL players of comparison, his self-perception is also top-notch. Andrew Gribble reports that Davis describes his style as on par with Arian Foster and Adrian Peterson.

If you ask me, Davis has some sort of dsymorphic disorder isolated to running backs and American Idol audition candidates. He has the idea that he performs differently than he does. Davis’ style is nowhere close to that of Foster or Peterson. When it comes to talent, if Davis is one of the top-ten runners in this class, then it’s a stretch to place him among the top seven in what is a deep class that lacks superstar talent at the top.

While I can’t be definitive about an exact ranking because I’m about two days away from the month-long task of compiling my 24 months of analysis into rankings this month, I can say that I have similar concerns as other writers (such as Rotoworld’s Evan Silva, NFL.com’s Josh Norris, and Bleacher Report’s Sigmund Bloom) who have studied Davis.

Foster and Peterson don’t come to mind when they watch Davis run. The running back mentioned most often among them was Shonn Greene.

Ouch.

Read the Rest Football Outsiders

Futures: Pittsburgh RB Ray Graham

December 8, 2012 0 Comments read Matt Waldman, Players

Frank Gore was a great prospect battling through injury and it dropped his draft stock. Ray Graham is in a similar situation.

Futures: Pittsburgh RB Ray Graham

by Matt Waldman

“I had the pleasure of coaching Barry Sanders, and Frank Gore is the best back I’ve been around since Barry Sanders.”

-Former University of Miami Head Coach Larry Coker, July 26, 2004

College coaches are prone to hyperbole, but when the coach comparing Frank Gore to Sanders has not only coached the NFL Hall of Famer, but Thurman Thomas, Edgerrin James, Clinton Portis, andWillis McGahee as well, these were words worth heeding. Gore lived up to that praise early in his Hurricanes career, but ACL injuries to both knees robbed him of opportunities to compile the portfolio he’d need to be a first-round pick. Those injuries also robbed Gore of his lightning-quick lateral agility and the third gear to pull away from defensive backs.

Although Gore still had enough in him to become one of the most respected runners among NFL defenders over the past decade, the third-round pick left his true potential behind in Miami. Gore’s college injury history validates the cliché that football is a game of inches. Those fractions of a second have made a difference on the field and in the payroll ledgers of the 49ers front office.

More than height, weight, strength, speed, or college program, injury is the single greatest factor that differentiates players entering the NFL Draft. Nothing can drop a player’s stock like a season-ending injury that forces a prospect to miss his senior year. Limiting injuries have a large effect on stock as well. Gore looked like a fraction of the player he was as a freshman, and ultimately would become in San Francisco, when he played on a knee that wasn’t fully rehabilitated from his second ACL surgery as a senior.

A running back that’s in a similar situation this year is Pittsburgh’s Ray Graham. The Panthers running back never drew comparisons to Sanders in terms of talent, but a healthy Graham is a closer match to Sanders’ style than Gore ever was. Graham had great footwork, unusual balance to change direction, and quickness with his cuts that rivaled the likes of Jamaal Charles and Marshall Faulk.

Graham was having an All-America-caliber season in 2011 before he tore his ACL against Connecticut. In a little more than seven games, Graham had 958 yards, nine touchdowns, and averaged 5.8 yards per carry. He was by far my favorite college runner to watch on Saturdays.

Although Graham’s skill at changing directions fits along a continuum of players where Sanders is at the top end and Faulk and Charles are on the same street, the 5-foot-9, 190-pound runner isn’t in the same neighborhood as those three runners when it comes to tackle-breaking strength. Graham relies more on his sweet feet than most NFL prospects, which makes his recovery a pivotal factor in earning a call from a team before the third day of the NFL’s selection process.

Read the rest at Football Outsiders

Futures: FSU CB Xavier Rhodes

November 24, 2012 0 Comments read Players

Last week I wrote about NC State corner David Amerson, who owns the record for interceptions in a season. I spent much of the piece contrasting Amerson’s style of play with Florida State’s Xavier Rhodes and Alabama’s Dee Milliner, two corners considered to be in the same tier to begin the year. After examining Amerson’s game, I think he has a chance to become a starting corner for a team that doesn’t need him to play press. Otherwise, free safety might be in his future. Either way, I no longer think he’s in the same tier as Rhodes and Milliner.

Rhodes is a promising player because he plays smaller than his size and it’s the one of the few instances where this characterization is a compliment. At 6’1, 217 lbs., Rhodes is an inch taller and two pounds lighter than former LSU star and Cardinals rising stud, Patrick Peterson.

Some have compared Rhodes to Peterson because of the similar physical dimensions, Rhodes’ speed and quickness, and the junior’s physical play. I see the basis for the stylistic comparison, but Peterson is a better tackler. When a corner can stone Julio Jones or make it tough on Trent Richardson one –on-one at the goal line a player like Peterson is in a different class.

What I have seen from Rhodes is the skill to develop into an excellent press corner in addition to a player who also demonstrates skill with trail, off man, and zone coverage. Mlliner is a better player at this stage of the trio’s careers, but Rhodes’ chances of developing into a special cornerback is the highest of the three. Read the rest at FootballOutsider’s.com

Futures: Texas FS Kenny Vaccaro

November 10, 2012 0 Comments read Players

This week’s Futures article at Football Outsiders analysis the next in a line of NFL-caliber free safety prospects from the University of Texas. Photo by Wonggawei/

Studying football players is a solitary pursuit. So it feels good when a performance catches your attention and months later you learn that it did the same for another writer, scout, or talent evaluator. Everyone enjoys that kind of validation.

One of those moments occurred last spring when I was watching Keenan Allen. As fun as it was to watch the Cal receiver, I couldn’t keep my eyes off Texas’ Kenny Vaccaro.

The free safety didn’t have an incredible game, but his potential leaped off the screen -– and in one case, over running back Iso Sofele (see below) -– as a versatile prospect capable of starting at either safety position as well as being a force on special teams. According to Orangebloods.com writer Chip Brown, it was this Cal game that had an NFL scout tell him that Vaccaro would have been “the best Longhorn in the [2012 NFL Draft] … He might have been a first-rounder with the way he can cover and the way he defends the run.”

Vacarro might be the most impressive defender on an underachieving Longhorns defensive unit. Six defensive backs from Texas have earned top-50 selections in the NFL Draft, Vaccaro is likely to become the seventh in 2013. There’s a lot to like about his game.

Although his edge sometimes crosses the line to recklessness, I love Vaccaro’s ability to play with abandon. Once he improves . . . Read the rest at Football Outsiders

Futures: Florida TE Jordan Reed

November 3, 2012 0 Comments read Players, Tight End

Hernandez by Patriotworld — Aaron Hernandez is a unique talent in the NFL, but one of his fellow alums has the potential to change that assertion. Photo by Patriotworld.

Last week, I wrote about Notre Dame’s Tyler Eifert and how his skills fit into the growing pantheon of versatile tight end play that is in vogue in the NFL. But versatility can have a number of different meanings depending on the talents of the player and his fit within an offense. The word doesn’t necessarily mean that the player can do everything well.

Players like Jermaine Gresham, Brandon Pettigrew, Brent Celek, andHeath Miller are versatile in the sense that they can run block, have enough speed to stretch the intermediate seam, and produce in tight coverage in the red zone. I think they do a lot well, but nothing great. If anything, I believe they are the current evolution of the “average” tight end. (Though I have to say that calling personal favorite Miller “average” insults my sensibilities because in terms of smarts and execution he blows away players like Gresham and Pettigrew.)

Jermichael Finley, Jimmy Graham, and Jared Cook are versatile because they have the speed to run more vertical routes and the height and hands to function more as outside receivers. While Graham and Finley have improved as blockers, neither would list this skill as a true strength of their games. All three are essentially big wide receivers that can do a passable job as blockers depending on the way an offensive coordinator incorporates them into a scheme. In other words: teams have to be more creative with them when they aren’t running a route.

The only tight ends I believe have it all are (Read the rest at Football Outsiders).

Futures: West Virginia WR Tavon Austin

October 20, 2012 0 Comments read Players, Wide Receiver

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Evaluating players is a long process. It doesn’t end when an analyst watches a few games of a prospect. I want you to keep this in mind as you read this take or any take that I provide of a player before his college career has ended. My methodology of evaluation is as detailed as any and I often find that the third, fourth, or fifth game I’ve watched of a player only validates what I saw in the first performance. Even so, there are times that my fundamental opinion of a player will change with additional viewings of games.

Steelers running back Rashard Mendenhall comes to mind. I had initial concerns about his acceleration that eventually diminished after additional viewings of his performances. The more I watched him, the more I liked him. On the opposite end of the spectrum, the more I watched quarterback Matt Leinart the less confident I felt that he had the on-field makeup to become anything more than system player with fringe starter potential.

I share this because West Virginia receiver and return specialist Tavon Austin is one of those players where after my initial studies I have more questions than answers. Several draft analysts list Austin as one of the five best receiver prospects of the 2013 N.F.L. Draft class – including NFL Draft Scout and my buddy Josh Norris over at Rotoworld. I agree that the 5-9, 176-pound slot receiver and kick return specialist from West Virginia is among the most productive performers at his position in college football, but what I have seen of Austin continues to raise one question: Is there a slot receiver in pro football with the kind of marquee game that in hindsight would have deserved a first-day pick in April?

Read the rest at Football Outsiders

Big Bad Utah War Daddy Star Lotulelei

September 22, 2012 0 Comments read Players

6313318837_9c23f6f708_b — Is Star Lotulelei the next impact DT along the lines of Ndamukong Suh? Find out at Football Outsiders. Photo by Jeffery Beall.

War Daddies. Chris Brown introduces this coach’s term of endearment for big, bad defensive tackles that man the middle of a defensive front in his ode to the position at Grantland. Brown, the author of the always excellent Smart Football, explains that when it comes to prioritizing the factors that make a good defensive tackle, size is only a fundamental consideration.

What separates a defensive tackle who earns an invitation to compete for a roster spot from a defensive tackle that has an integral role for an NFL team is fluid athleticism and a good football IQ. It might be important to have (Read the rest at Football Outsiders)