Posts tagged Matt Waldman NFL Draft

Boiler Room: Utah TE Jake Murphy

Photo by John Martinez Paviliga.
Photo by John Martinez Paviliga.

Utah’s Jake Murphy is a safe, late-round pick with upside when called upon to do more.

One of the challenges involved with player analysis is to be succinct with delivering the goods. As the author of an annual tome, I’m often a spectacular failure in this respect. A series I started last spring at the RSP blog to remedy it is The Boiler Room

I often see a play unfold while I’m studying a prospect that does a great job of encapsulating that player’s skills. When I witness these moments, I try to imagine if I was working for an NFL organization creating cut-ups for a personnel director would I include this play as part of a cut-up of highlights?

In every draft, there are players who lack the attention-grabbing athleticism and production to capture the attention of the media and draftniks, but have something to offer the NFL. In a draft as deep as this one, these players are late-round picks at best.

Jake Murphy is one of these prospects who might be off the public’s collective radar, but has potential value to an organization for his hands, athleticism, and special teams play. However, the tight end from Utah is 25 years old and it is a point that some draftniks will nitpick.

I only see the logic of lowering the value of a player if he has an early round grade and the expectation is for him to become a long-term starter. Correct me if I’m wrong, but not a lot of players earn second contracts with their original teams. The first contract is generally a deal of 2-4 years, the average lifespan of an NFL career.

If I were a GM, why would I sweat the age of a 25 year-old tight end? If he was 28, different story, but 25 is young enough that if he develops beyond expectation, he still has another 2-3 years of good production before thinking about athletic decline–and I’m not including the top athletes at this position who play into their mid-30s.

Murphy isn’t seen as a top athlete at the position, but his physical skills aren’t bad by any stretch of the imagination. His short shuttle was the second-best time for his position at the combine and his three-cone drill was fourth among participating tight ends. The potential to get off the line and change direction with suddenness is there and that’s good enough for a player of Murphy’s skills to threaten a seam and win in the short zone.

And Murphy’s skills are difficult to teach because despite lacking high-end tools, he integrates the tools he has in a way that some high-end athletes can never succeed in doing. The two plays below are good examples.

The first is a 3rd and 13 pass from the 16 of Colorado early in the first quarter. Murphy is next to the right tackle in a 2×1 receiver, 11 personnel pistol. The outside linebacker near the line of scrimmage is shaded outside and the safety is 10 yards deep, also with outside shade.  Murphy gets a clean release inside and executes a double move, forcing the safety to bite on the shallow stem of a stop-and-go that Murphy breaks to the inside for a touchdown catch.

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TXO3y5lXFlI&start=44&w=560&h=315]

There are a few things I like about Murphy’s performance on this play. Although the double move isn’t the best route I’ve seen, his footwork is precise and fluid. It’s a good sign that he can do more as a route runner. He also sinks his hips and turns his outside shoulder to sell the potential break on the stop route. This baits the safety to break outside.

A tight end with good feet and hip flexibility has the promise to develop into a good NFL route runner. What he showed here is a good reflection of what he did at the combine. He’s quick enough to do the job and savvy enough to trick an opponent.

Murphy finishes the play with a good catch of the target placed above his head. The athleticism and awareness of the reception is another thing I liked about this play. While the beaten safety tries to work back to the break to cut off the route, the other safety is approaching Murphy from the opposite side of the field.

Murphy extends for the ball, makes the catch, and spins inside to avoid the oncoming safety at the five. This is a good display of concentration and hand-eye coordination to make the play, gauge the oncoming defender and move to protect the ball.

The oncoming safety wraps Murphy, but the tight end drags the tackler across the goal line, earning the final three yards to the end zone standing up. Murphy avoids the potential for a collision, but also prepared for it with enough focus to still make the reception. This is the kind focus an NFL tight end has to display as a matter of routine.

Here is a reception in tight, physical coverage on 3rd and 9 (note that this is the second, third-down target I’m showing you–a good sign about Murphy’s reliability in the passing game) from a 1×3 receiver, 1o-personnel pistol. Murphy is the inside trips receiver on the left side of the formation. The safety is eight yards deep with a slight inside shade.

Murphy runs an eight-step stem and patters his feet into a turn on an in-cut. Not a great route by any means, but if there’s an aspect of tight end play that should improve with experience it’s running pass patterns.

Still, Murphy freezes the safety just enough with a small dip to the inside once he reaches  the top of his stem. It’s hard to catch, but it’s there. What’s difficult for a receiver to improve in his game is winning the ball in tight, physical coverage–and that is what comes next.

Murphy drifts to the first down marker after he breaks inside and makes the catch between both safeties. The tight end shields the trailing safety with his back and extends for the ball as the front side safety delivers a shot to Murphy’s chest.

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TXO3y5lXFlI&start=127&w=560&h=315]

The impact of the collision is strong enough to shake the trailing safety off Murphy’s back, but the tight end also has enough balance to bounce off this head-on collision, spin to the middle of the field, and gain another five yards the trailing safety drags Murphy to the turf by the legs.

It’s tough to teach a player how to adjust to the ball and withstand punishment. These two plays show Murphy getting it done. In addition to his special teams work, there are enough compelling reasons why I’d consider Murphy as a late-round pick.

I know he has a feel for the passing game, the focus and toughness to make plays if called off the bench, and potential to grow into a contributor in an offense. Even if he never earns that chance, the fact he has experience on kicks and demonstrates the skill to run and tackle means his downside is good enough to consider him. However, it’s the upside that would make me want to pick him.

 

For analysis of skill players in this year’s draft class, download the 2014 Rookie Scouting Portfolio – available now. Better yet, if you’re a fantasy owner the 56-page Post-Draft Add-on comes with the 2012 – 2014 RSPs at no additional charge and available for download within a week after the NFL Draft. Best, yet, 10 percent of every sale is donated to Darkness to Light to combat sexual abuse. You can purchase past editions of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio for just $9.95 apiece.

2013 RSP Flashback: RB Zac Stacy

[youtube=http://youtu.be/b9L8lAbcN4A]

The 2014 Rookie Scouting Portfolio is now available for pre-order for it’s April 1 release. Here’s a sample from 2013 of the underrated Zac Stacy.

There is not much flash in Stacy’s game, but there is plenty of substance. The Commodores runner has a low center of gravity and good power to keep his legs moving. He does not usually go down after the first hit or wrap.

He’s a decisive runner and will hit the hole on-time on gap plays (pulling guards) or show some patience and skill at pressing the hole on zone plays. Stacy optimizes the position of his blockers to access rushing lanes and this is probably his best skill. He rarely loses yards as a runner and he’ll keep the chains moving forward even if the runs aren’t for big plays.

His timed speed is a little more impressive than his on-field speed, but I have seen him show nice burst to the edge or through an open crease against fast defenses like Georgia. He lacks great agility to string together moves or make huge lateral cuts. Stacy can make a sharp cut if he has a step to gather his feet, but he’s not going to make big cuts at full speed and turn defenders around in the open field or with suddenness at the line of scrimmage.

He’s a one-cut down hill runner with enough speed to get into the third level, but not enough to create consistent breakaway runs. He has really good balance to carry defenders on his back
or stay upright after contact from a variety of angles. He has a shifty style where he can make defenders miss in the backfield or bounce to the outside and downhill. And Stacy protects the ball with either arm according to the location of the run and he keeps it cinched tight to his body.

His pass blocking is pretty good. He understands his protections, sets up angles to get square to his opponents, and will get good placement with his hands as a stand up blocker. He also delivers a good cut block on bigger defenders and hustles down field as a lead blocker in the run game.

It is possible that Stacy has an issue that his preventing him from punching opponents with good form as a pass or run blocker. However, what I saw is a player that tries to “load” up and deliver a shoulder or elbow/forearm. Although he sets a good angle to deliver a punch, the actual punch is out of control. There were plays where Stacy didn’t take a good angle to the
defender rushing the pocket and this forced pressure that he should have accounted for.

Stacy will be a fine backup in the NFL with enough skill to produce in a committee situation, perhaps even as a starter. However, he strikes me as a player that a team will say it’s happy with but continues to bring in other talented players to compete with Stacy while he has the starting job.

For analysis of skill players in this year’s draft class, download the 2014 Rookie Scouting Portfolio – available to pre-order now. The 2014 RSP will available for download April 1. Better yet, if you’re a fantasy owner the 56-page Post-Draft Add-on comes with the 2012 – 2014 RSPs at no additional charge and available for download within a week after the NFL Draft. Best, yet, 10 percent of every sale is donated to Darkness to Light to combat sexual abuse. You can purchase past editions of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio for just $9.95 apiece.

Futures: BYU OLB Kyle Van Noy

Tyrann Mathieu might inspire an NFL team to consider Lamarcus Joyner in a similar role. Photo by wxcasterphx.
Is Kyle Van Noy the Tyrann Mathieu of outside linebackers? Photo by wxcasterphx.

Van Noy has all the tools to become a quality starter in the NFL. He also has the vision and decision-making to become potential star.

Futures: BYU OLB Kyle Van Noy

By Matt Waldman

When my friend Ryan Riddle, Cal’s all-time sack leader, says outside linebacker Kyle Van Noy has great instincts, that’s a player I want to watch.

“Some things in football cannot be coached. When it comes to play making instincts, you either have it or you don’t,” says Riddle about Van Noy’s play-making abilities that he describes as “off the charts.”

“I like to compare him to a linebacker version of Tyrann Mathieu in terms of his ability to be incredibly disruptive by knowing exactly how and when to take chances.”

According to Riddle, Van Noy, who Football Outsiders projects as a first or early second-day pick, is earning mid-round grades. He explains that a player with good instincts can be often be characterized as product of a good system –- even lucky. Worse yet, a coach can sometimes mishandle a player with good instincts because the process isn’t by the book.

I watched enough of Van Noy to say that he was often lucky, but it wasn’t blind luck. Van Noy’s good fortune comes from smart decisions, creativity, effort, and patience.

Read the rest at Football Outsiders

Futures: “I am smarter than ‘Phillip’ Rivers”

 

WonderlicThe Wonderlic is great for testing future loan officers, but Matt Waldman would rather have Wonderlic failures like Jim Kelly or Ray Lewis as his on-field CEOs.

Futures: I Am Smarter Than “Phillip” Rivers

 

by Matt Waldman

 

“You scored a 32 –- that’s better than Phillip Rivers. He scored a 30. Rivers’ career quarterback rating –- at 95.8 -– ranks second-best all time, one point behind Steve Young (96.8) among NFL quarterbacks with at least 1500 pass attempts. He has a career total of eleven 4th quarter comebacks.”

 

Hey Nicholas Creative Media, LLC, Rivers spells his first name with one L. Does that make me smarter than you guys, or just more experienced with writing his name?

 

Considering that I can’t go a day without calling Derek Carr ‘David’ and I still refer to former Lions running back Jahvid Best as ‘Travis’ -– the former Indiana Pacer -– I’ll opt for the latter choice.

 

Nicholas Creative Media does do a good enough job describing the basic purpose of the Wonderlic Personnel Test:

 

“The test is a sort of IQ test to measure players’ aptitude for learning and problem solving. The possible score range is 1 to 50. The average football player scores around 20 points and scoring at least 10 points suggests a person is literate.”

But let’s dig a little deeper. Read the rest at Football Outsiders

QB Jimmy Garoppolo: Knockout

For illustrations of the Standing Fetal Position Variation in the pocket, read on. Photo by Steven Mileham.
For illustrations of the Standing Fetal Position Variation in the pocket, read on. Photo by Steven Mileham.

Jimmy Garoppolo’s draft stock in the media is gaining steam, but the quarterback is a player whose whole does not equal the sum of his parts.

In this week’s Futures, I wrote that scouting quarterbacks remains an untamed wilderness for the NFL. While easier for scouts to identify details like height, weight, arm strength, base accuracy, and mobility, it’s more difficult to quantify – or even qualify – that amount of sophistication that a player has when it comes to integrating these details on the field.

Reading defenses, pocket presence, touch, and placement are examples of this kind of sophistication. They aren’t easy to grade because they involve multiple variables that differ on every play.

Even so, if a team is honest and vigilant about identifying what it can – and should – spend time coaching, then it will do a better job scouting prospects. Having this kind of accurate self-assessment of its skills and priorities should help them elevate or reject prospects.

They should focus more on “knockout factors” in their scouting. Even if it’s not formalized in a scouting report or on paper, the better teams have a core identity that each player must match or he’s not on its draft board. The Ravens have it. I believe the Steelers have it. I suspect to some degree the Patriots and Seahawks do, too.

I’ve always considered having “knockout factors” in my scouting reports. Now that I’m almost 10 years into the RSP, I’m closer to incorporating them into my process. The reason I’ve waited is that a knockout factor has to be obvious.

I wouldn’t hire a musician with stage fright for a live performance. I don’t care how great his or her tone, range, rhythm, and phrasing is. I don’t care if he or she won a Grammy and an Oscar. If that person takes the stage, forgets the words, and begins hyperventilating, my decision was a huge mistake.

Certain elements of a quarterback’s game that are supposed to be the glue that hold the details together. If a quarterback lacks these elements, then I don’t care how many individual components of his game are impressive.

Ryan Riddle told On the Couch listeners this week that there tends to be more coaching of technique in college football than in the NFL. He explained that any finishing school of technique that happens in the NFL is based on peer and independent study.

It explains the existence of consultants like Chris Weinke and George Whitfield.

Just how realistic are teams about what it teach a player?  Footwork, velocity, and knowledge of defenses? Sure.

How about learning not to freeze like a statue when a 320-pound defensive tackle tosses a guard aside like a lawn bag of leaves? Different story.

I fear that the way that Eastern Illinois quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo responds to pressure could be a fatal flaw for his NFL prospects. If I’m right, Garoppolo is a player whose whole does not equal the sum of his parts.

Phantom Pressure Haunting Garoppolo’s Process

This is a two-point conversion attempt in the first quarter versus a four-man front with one safety deep to the trips side of this 3×2 empty shotgun set. You’re going to see the quick drop and pump fake that are hallmarks of his game.

However, watch the pressure that circles behind Garoppolo. Although the tackle has this play under control, Garoppolo flushes left to an open space, throws the ball to the back of the end zone, and it’s too high of target for a reception in bounds.

[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zXNISUKn1NA&start=93&w=560&h=315]

There are two things that Garoppolo did to the detriment of this play. First, he reacted too fast to the pressure looping to his left. I shouldn’t even call this pressure, because the tackle has his opponent under control.

It’s phantom pressure and he reacts too fast and dropped his eyes from the end zone. At the same time, Garoppolo’s movement is to an open throwing lane, which is a good thing.

Additionally, this perception of pressure doesn’t prevent Garoppolo from returning his eyes to the receiver. However, the second problem with his reaction to the pressure is that he rushed his process to deliver the ball: he threw the ball too soon, too hard, and too high.

This is an example of a player who often executes these individual details with precision, but his perception of pressure triggers him to rush his process. To be fair, this is a minor example. Even top quarterbacks can rush their process after sliding to an open lane.

Here’s more muddled thinking on a 12 personnel twin receiver set with a thorough read-option fake. Garoppolo looks up the right hash and slides a step to his right before he feels pressure from the inside.

At this point Garoppolo reverses his field to the left and his plan of action lacks clarity. The quarterback sees the safety working up the hash from seven yards away, but never squares his hips and shoulders to throw the ball to the open man. When he realizes he can’t make the throw from his current position he is only option is try to get outside the safety.

[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zXNISUKn1NA&start=422&w=560&h=315]

The initial hesitation to square his body is another symptom of Garoppolo lacking a clear plan on the field when the initial play doesn’t work.

Here’s a more glaring example that concerns me. This is a  play-action pass thrown 36 yards from Garoppolo’s release point to the receiver running the sideline fade. The pass lands outside the boundary and the root cause is Garoppolo’s release. The stance is wide enough, but notice how the quarterback never drives through the target.

[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zXNISUKn1NA&start=140&w=560&h=315]

Not only does Garoppolo fail to transfer his weight through his release, but he also delivers the ball leaning away from the line of scrimmage. If I could photoshop Jared Allen in a lunging position three steps from Garoppolo, the quarterback’s form would make sense.

This is the type of movement that I see from quarterbacks who are in a tight pocket, a hit is imminent, and there is no room to step through the release without the defender altering the throw and forcing an altered throw. Yet on this attempt, Garoppolo didn’t have a defender within range of making contact.

It’s another manifestation of a player who sees phantom pressure.

The Standing Fetal Position

The next play is one of the more damning examples of Garoppolo having brain freeze. It’s a first-quarter pass from an empty shotgun.

Garoppolo sets his feet within two steps after the snap while he’s looking up the left seam. Pressure turns the corner on the right tackle and eventually sacks the quarterback, but I don’t believe Garoppolo even feels the edge rush.

After multiple viewings, I believe the quarterback drops his head and shoulders into a crouch because he’s bracing himself for the oncoming bull rush from the defensive tackle.

[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zXNISUKn1NA&start=248&w=560&h=315]

There are three first reactions a quarterback can have in the face of middle pressure. The most common is to retreat – either turn tail and run or put it in reverse. The more advance option – when available – is to slide left or right while keeping the eyes down field and then climb to open space, if necessary.

Garoppolo exhibits the third option – the fetal position.

Standing Fetal Garoppolo

Granted, the quarterback opts for the standing variety as opposed to the full-blown, “put-my-thumb-in-my-mouth-and-read-me-a-bedtime-story,” fetal position. But even when Garoppolo realizes that he’s a beat away from a turf-nap and spins to his right, the initial frozen reaction affords the edge rush to reach the quarterback for the sack.

This isn’t an isolated play. These are three plays from the same quarter. I wish I could tell you this was a bad day from Garoppolo, but these are consistent tendencies in other games. 

Here’s one of two I’ll show from the Tennessee State game (and there are more). This is a 10 personnel shotgun set with 2:47 in the first quarter with a three-step drop and shoulder fake to the inside trips receiver at the line of scrimmage.

Can you tell when Garoppolo senses the pressure on this play?

[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gTWi8kN8qnM&start=194&w=560&h=315]

Yup, it’s another game of freeze tag – except most kids get tagged and claim they weren’t. Garoppolo has the opposite problem. The pressure arrives outside the left tackle and the push up the middle forces the quarterback to drop his eyes and slide to the left.

Garoppolo checks down, the receiver juggles the ball and makes the catch, but he’s dropped for a loss. Another panicked pay.

The standing fetal position is almost as common as Garopplo’s penchant for pump fakes, but I’d rather see the ball fakes.

Here’s another strong example of this unfortunate maneuver after dropping from an 01 personnel shotgun set. Garoppolo feels the pressure from the defender working inside the left guard.

On this play, Garoppolo  does a good job flushing to his right, but it’s a short-lived reaction. Once he sees the depth that the defensive end gets on the right tackle, Garoppolo drops his head and shoulders and freezes.

Unlike the previous play, he has time to work past that first reaction and spin outside his right tackle. Garoppolo reaches the edge and delivers the ball to the right sideline.

[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zXNISUKn1NA&start=252&w=560&h=315]

Garoppolo avoids the bad result, but his tendency to freeze first-react second is a red flag.

Coming Up Short On Potential Big Plays

As I said, it’s not just the NIU game where Garoppolo freezes like a deer in headlights. Here’s a red zone play against Tennessee State that should be a flashing red light of caution to NFL decision makers about giving this quarterback a top-100 grade.

This is a 3rd-and-goal with 8:54 in the first quarter from the opponent’s 2. Double A-gap pressure is working through the pocket as Garroppolo looks left after a one-step motion from the snap to set his feet.

Watch how early Garoppolo ducks his head and shoulders before the pressure arrives.

[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gTWi8kN8qnM&start=120&w=560&h=315]

Not a good look. While better to take a sack than throw a red zone interception, it’s also far better to throw the ball away or climb the pocket and find an open man.

With 6:34 left and trailing, Garoppolo anticipates contact on a 2nd-and-16 at EIU’s 18. NIU sends six players – two off right guard.

Garroppolo executes a play fake from center, but as soon as he finishes his turn from the fake exchange, he anticipates contact and goes into the standing fetal position before moving into the full fetal soon after.

[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zXNISUKn1NA&start=777&w=560&h=315]

I understand “live for another play,” but this is the end of the game and it’s time to fight; not give up.

Here’s a red zone play in the fourth quarter from 20 personnel. Garoppolo throws the slant, but the edge pressure forces Garoppolo to alter his release and the ball comes out funny.

[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zXNISUKn1NA&start=722&w=560&h=315]

A clear case of Garoppolo rushing his process. I feel bad highlighting this play in today’s football environment, because don’t referees tell boxers to protect themselves at all times? Still, you don’t see this behavior among most NFL starters.

To be fair, Garoppolo will take a hit. However, I believe he only follows through with any consistency on two set conditions. Here’s a shotgun pass with a three-step drop facing five-man pressure.

Garoppolo looks to the right hash and just gets the ball off as he’s hammered off the edge. The receiver makes the catch and earns yardage as a runner.

[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zXNISUKn1NA&start=533&w=560&h=315]

It is an example of Garoppolo taking a hit, but there are two conditions in play: The impending hit is coming off the edge so Garoppolo doesn’t see the hit coming and the route was wide open.

More Eyes; Less Body

Garoppolo often wins because of his pace and misdirection. His drops and releases are touted first and foremost.

Combine this pacing with a play fake or a pump fake, and he can put defenders on their heels in the short game. But Garoppolo needs a change-up or teams will catch on and know that the pump fake is the quarterback’s substitute for looking off the opposition.

This 4th-and-8 pass with 2:11 in the first quarter is a shotgun pass were Garoppolo uses a pump fake before delivering the slant, but he stares down the receiver and the trailing corer undercuts the pass for an interception.

[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zXNISUKn1NA&start=367&w=560&h=315]

Here’s another with 5:07 in the half. Garoppolo takes two steps to set his feet and pump fakes to the shallow cross. Only one of the two linebackers bite on the pump fake and when Garoppolo targets the deeper cross, the defense deflects the target. 

[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zXNISUKn1NA&start=466&w=560&h=315]

Pace and manipulation are excellent tools for an NFL quarterback, but even what Peyton Manning does is often predictable. The difference is that a lot of teams lack the total defense to stop him. Garoppolo is not Peyton Manning and he’s not facing a defense the caliber of the Seattle Seahawks.

Is it impossible for Garappolo to address his pocket presence? Of course not. Have I ever seen it when the issues are this dramatic? Not in recent memory.

As critical as I am about what I perceive to be a critical lack of nuance to his game, I want Garoppolo to succeed. However, if I were a decision-maker for a team I’d rather be proven wrong with him playing elsewhere.

No matter how high the sum of his total of parts may be on some scouting reports, he wouldn’t be on my board.

For analysis of skill players in this year’s draft class, download the 2014 Rookie Scouting Portfolio – available to pre-order now, and for download April 1. Better yet, if you’re a fantasy owner the 56-page Post-Draft Add-on comes with the 2012 – 2014 RSPs at no additional charge and available for download within a week after the NFL Draft. Best, yet, 10 percent of every sale is donated to Darkness to Light to combat sexual abuse. You can purchase past editions of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio for just $9.95 apiece.

RSP Publication Update

The RSP is to draft analysis as Matt Forte is to NFL running backs - versatile, underrated, and appreciated by those in the know. Photo by John Martinez Pavliga.
The RSP is to draft analysis as Matt Forte is to NFL running backs – versatile, underrated, and appreciated by those in the know. Photo by John Martinez Pavliga.

The RSP is still on schedule for reader download on April 1.

I finished my last budgeted game of film study Friday night. Here is the rough list of players who will appear in the pre-draft publication. There are a handful of players who have not declared for the draft on this list. They will appear in the 2015 RSP.

There are also a handful of prospects I didn’t have a chance to study prior to my research deadline. Among them are quarterbacks Jordan Lynch, Tom Savage, and Keith Price. I’ll be studying them for the RSP Post-Draft Add-on, which you get free with purchase of the pre-draft publication.

For those of you new to the RSP, the April 1 publication ranks players on talent without regard to character or “draft stock”. The Post-Draft Add-on gives a pragmatic perspective to rankings based on the NFL Draft and is available for download a week after the draft.

I tell my readers that the pre-draft is the purer analysis. Three years from now, a player’s round of selection will mean much less than it will two months from now.

Sometimes, it happens three months after the draft: Marlon Brown, Kenbrell Thompkins, and Alfred Morris are all players that you wouldn’t find much about in most publications because they weren’t even considered “the supporting cast” on draft day. I have not have ranked them in my top-10, but I gave them prominent attention and ranking devoid of the class warfare that is draft status.

You’ll want to know about a player’s talent based on game film and football beat writers often lack the time, space, and knowledge to tell you. If you’re lucky, they’ll tell you where the player came from, when he was drafted (if at all), and some old stat or one-liner about his physical skills.

The savvy ones get the RSP.

You can order the 2014 Rookie Scouting Portfolio now and I’ll email you when its available for download on April 1 (sometimes earlier for those who order before that date). The Post-Draft Add-on comes with the 2012 – 2014 RSPs at no additional charge and is available for download within a week after the NFL Draft. Best, yet, 10 percent of every sale is donated to Darkness to Light to combat sexual abuse. You can purchase past editions of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio for just $9.95 apiece.

Futures: 2014 Speed Score Leaders

Where Bo Jackson 2.0 could be made . . . photo by Dancelilsister.
Where Bo Jackson 2.0 could be made . . . photo by Dancelilsister.

If I had a laboratory fitting of a mad scientist, Football Outsiders’ Speed Score would have its application. What about now?

Futures: The 2014 Speed Score Leaders

By Matt Waldman

Indulge me in a bit of fantasy. Imagine an old football field. It’s a practice field at the rear of an abandoned high school with woods surrounding it on three sides. Behind the north goal post is an equipment building no bigger than a backyard storage shed with a green tin roof, white cinderblock, and a steel blue door held three-quarters shut with a rusted chain and pad lock.

Squeeze inside this dark, dilapidated building and you’ll find Craig James’ concussed son -– wrong story. Let’s try again…

Squeeze inside this cobweb-filled space and you’ll find nothing but a bench press station with a torn vinyl cushion. Reach into the tear of the cushion and there’s a switch that opens a trap door in the floor near the entrance that reveals a long, torch-lit spiral staircase made of stone that leads to the secret laboratory of M. Waldman, mad scientist of offensive skill talent.

The demented (but good) doctor is pouring over plans to create Bo Jackson 2.0. He has set up shop in the southeastern United States because of regional and socio-economic factors that point to it as the best area to produce a rare athlete for the game. He’s hacked into the medical records of pediatrician offices and narrowed the field of candidates to boys who are projected to develop into young men between five-foot-nine and six-foot-one and have the skeletal-muscular potential to carry 210-to-225 lbs.

Like a formula to determine the tensile stress of a material for an engineering firm, Football Outsiders’ Speed Score would have an ideal application in M. Waldman’s secret lab. The problem wouldn’t be constructing the running backs, but preventing Nick Saban from breaking them before they reach the NFL.

In the reality of the NFL Draft, the Speed Score provides a layer of analysis that illuminates the players with desirable physical skills. The idea is a fine one: if they’re big and explosive, they’ll have the strength-speed-agility to measure on a spectrum that ends with terminates at Bo Jackson.

But we know that good running backs come in all shapes and sizes. Darren Sproles and Brandon Jacobs illustrate how the range of height, weight, speed, strength, and agility of successful players at the position is wider than any in the NFL.

The differences in size are also indicative of the specialization of the position that has evolved over the years. The New Orleans Saints three different types of runners on its depth chart:

  • Darren Sproles — A hybrid of a scat-back, slot receiver, and return specialist.
  • Pierre Thomas — A utility back that does his best work in pass protection, draws, and screens.
  • Mark Ingram and Khiry Robinson — Traditional power backs who do best with a high volume of touches.

The Patriots, Cardinals, Bengals, Colts, Chargers, Panthers, Lions, and Falcons have at least two runners with roles that may blend in some places, but have distinct separation of labor in others. Based on recent drafts, one could argue that the Packers, 49ers, and Washington had similar aspirations.

Specialization offers more avenues for a variety of physical talents at the running back position to earn a roster spot. However, it doesn’t create more opportunities for running backs overall.

There’s a lot of talent on the street that can enter an NFL locker room, exit the tunnel to the field on Sunday afternoon, post 80-100 yards, and help a team win a game. The fact that Thomas and Robinson -– two UDFAs -– are viable options is a testament to this point.

Joique Bell, Alfred Morris and Arian Foster’s numbers all sound the refrain that a quality NFL running back often requires a lot less of what we emphasize as “good foot-speed.” There’s another type of speed that these three possess that is as important as foot-speed, agility, balance, and vision –- “processor speed.”

It’s an attribute often linked with vision –- a quality that is difficult to quantify unless one deconstructs “vision” into definable components. I still link processor speed with vision –- it’s the mental speed that a football player sees the position of the players on the field, links it to the game situation, and executes the appropriate physical reaction to the this environment-stimuli.

Processor speed enhances on-field speed. Watch a tentative or confused player and subtract tenths of a second of his execution time. While you’re at it, begin subtracting positive plays, playing time, and ultimately a contract with the team.

Clean, consistent technique is another factor that enhances on-field speed. There are receivers with 4.3-speed that cannot separate from cornerbacks because they cannot run clean routes. However, there are much slower pass catches whose routes are so good that they earn separation as if they had great foot-speed.

There’s no silver bullet or code to crack that will yield accurate projections of rookie prospects with quantifiable precision. Because the mad scientist’s football laboratory is only a pipe-dream, it’s important to view players that score high on Football Outsiders’ Speed Score within the context of the rest of their skills.

Nevertheless, the 2014 version of the Speed Score offers an intriguing quartet of players at its top: Oklahoma’s Damien Williams, Georgia Southern’s Jerick McKinnon, Stanford’s Tyler Gaffney, and Notre Dame’s George Atkinson. I’m not convinced all four have a place in the NFL, but even before Aaron Schatz asked me to write about them, I thought each offered an intriguing storyline.

Read the rest at Football Outsiders

No-Huddle Series: WR/KR Bruce Ellington

"+4 Wand of Instant Inferno" or as I call it, "Bruce Ellington Abstract" Photo by Dvanzuijlekom.
“+4 Wand of Instant Inferno” or as I call it, “Bruce Ellington Abstract” Photo by Dvanzuijlekom.

Bruce Ellington is like a Swiss Army knife equipped with a butane lighter that doubles as a jet pack.

A couple weeks ago, I was a guest on Elise Woodward’s show on 950 KJR Seattle talking Seattle wide receivers and the NFL Draft. Woodward asked me which receivers I think the Seahawks might take in the first couple of rounds if the team parts ways with either Sidney Rice or Golden Tate. She also asked me to consider my answer with the knowledge that Seattle has a penchant for surprising the general public with “reaching” for players they like earlier than the dictates of conventional wisdom.

By the way, the true definition of conventional wisdom is a gathering spot for lots of folks who are about to look foolish.

My projected picks for Seattle in this hypothetical on-air game were Martavis Bryant as the replacement for Rice and Bruce Ellington as the replacement for Tate. Woodward, who is one of my favorite sports radio hosts around, immediately sparred with me on that choice – and rightfully so.

“But he’s FIVE-NINE . . . FIVE-NINE!!! The Seahawks already have smaller guys like Baldwin . . . ”

Fast forward to today. What the public knows now is that Ellington runs a 4.3-40. He’s as fast as any of the top receiving prospects in this class.

What I don’t think a lot of the public knows is that the 5’9″, 196-pound Ellington is the type of prospect I’m drooling over. If I were building an offense and wanted a scheme that would allow my quarterback to look over the defense and then shift 2-3 players to alter the alignment and change the match-up advantage against the opposition (think Patriots with Rob Gronkowski, Shane Vereen, and – in theory – Aaron Hernandez), Ellington would be one of my targets.

The two-sport star from South Carolina is one of the more impressive open-field ball carriers at his position and the excellent often appears on the smallest gains. Moreover, Ellington is an intermediate and deep threat, who I believe will make the transition to a more physical bump-and-run NFL game.

The reason is his basketball skill. Conventional wisdom – there they go again in that meeting space dreaming up stupidity dressed in a logical suit – always worries that former basketball players-turned football players aren’t used to the physical play of the gridiron.

As blockers, I agree. However, basketball players are facing tight, physical coverage catching passes and driving lanes. Earning separation against tight man or zone defense is a fundamental part of basketball.

Tony Gonzalez, Jimmy Graham, and Antonio Gates are great examples of basketball players who have been among the best tight-coverage receivers at the position and changed the game. Terrell Owens and Randy Moss were pretty good basketball players. Both were excellent in tight coverage.

Don’t just think of Bruce Ellington playing football when watching these highlights below, imagine him driving a lane or working free of a defender in tight coverage on the court to receiving a pass. The fact Ellington has the raw athleticism (speed, quickness, and strength) and conceptual athleticism (when and how to move) is a product of playing both games at a high level.

Scraping Blocks and Setting Up Creases

The play below is a 2nd and 4 with 1:23 in the first quarter from a 1×3 receiver 10 personnel shotgun. Ellington is the middle trips man with the ball the right hash at the 33 versus a 3-3-5 defensive look. The play will be a bubble screen to the left flat where Ellington will catch the ball three yards behind the line of scrimmage.

The NFL has adopted this play enough that Ellington should have an immediate opportunity to earn a small set of plays in an offense with the potential for a big impact. Think Andrew Hawkins for the Bengals before he got hurt.

Ellington makes the catch, tucks the ball under his left arm and works to the inside shoulder of his teammate in the slot before sliding behind the back of he defender to press and cut through that hole his two receiver teammates open. I call this tight work behind the back of a blocker “scraping a block.”

It’s not a technical term from football, but the act of working in close proximity of blocks without colliding with blockers is a useful way to use a lack of height and loads of quickness to one’s advantage as a ball carrier.

[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XQOypGFtz5U&start=110&w=560&h=315]

Ellington reads the outside corner making his approach inside and slides to his outside receiver, setting up a cutback to the inside. This setup fakes out the defensive back working past the outside receiver. The result of these moves helps Ellington split the defense, get the first down, and reach the 20. He finishes after contact to gain a few more to the 17.

Physicality

Dexter McCluster is no Bruce Ellington. What I mean is that the average fan might think of a 5’9″ receiver and associate him with a player like McCluster, who is a fine football player capable of withstanding physical play, but not one who will be returning the favor on opponents.

Ellington is more along the spectrum of a faster Hines Ward. Not as physical, but he has enough physicality to block like a running back. This 1st-and-goal with 0:43 int he first quarter form a 12 personnel twin-left shotgun set at the three of Vanderbilt is a good example.

The slot receiver begins the alignment at the left hash with a defensive back five yards off. The Gamecocks send Ellington in motion across the right end offset the tight end. At the snap, Ellington works inside-out, delivering a strong punch to the defensive back to clear the lane for the quarterback sneak for the score.

[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XQOypGFtz5U&start=147&w=560&h=315]

Ellington may be short, but at 196-pounds he’s mighty and physical. Moreover, he does a fine job of setting up his position on the defensive back to make the play. Thank a basketball education on setting position.

I also like that Ellington can cut-block. It’s a craft that many receivers and backs fail at miserably. I watched Andre Williams attempt six cut blocks in a game against Florida State this year. He executed one with good technique and with the desired end result of knocking the defender off his feet.

The other five? Williams either didn’t use the proper technique to work across the defender’s frame, didn’t drive through the defender, or telegraphed his intentions. Ellington has no such problem on this screen pass where he opens the field for his teammate to earn the first down.

[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XQOypGFtz5U&start=286&w=560&h=315]

Layers Of Moves

Here’s another bubble screen from a 1×3 receiver, 10 personnel shotgun set with the ball at the left hash of the 30. Ellington is the middle trips man facing a nickel look. He catches the ball with his hands close to his body and turns up field from the 27 as his two blockers engage the slot defensive back and the cornerback.

Ellington displays another fine understanding of press-and-cutback technique by working inside the slot man before cutting outside. However, there’s another layer to this cutback that dazzles me and that’s how he combines the outside cut with an outside spin to work behind the cornerback and reach the 32.

[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XQOypGFtz5U&start=167&w=560&h=315]

It’s not a huge gain, but the movement in tight space is impressive. It’s a small hint of something exciting that many will ignore. However, I bet we’ll see a lot more of it in the NFL and it will earn him far more yards.

More Than Bubble Wrap

Bubble screens are like bubble wrap. They have a use and they’re fun to play with, but it wears thin fast. Ellington’s game is far more than the bubble screen.

Here is a 10 personnel shotgun set with receivers 2×2 on 3rd and 8 with 11:48 in the half from the South Carolina 33 and facing a 3-3-5 look with two safeties deep. Ellington is the slot right receiver at the right hash with a defender playing four yards off Ellington and inside the hash.

The receiver works past the defensive back with an outside release, catches the fade a step past the defender as the ball arrives over his inside shoulder a the Vandy 39 and turns up the right sideline of the 35. Ellington does an especially good job of using his inside arm to frame separation after he earned separation from the defender.

[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XQOypGFtz5U&start=176&w=560&h=315]

Ellington runs through a wrap to his arm by raising his inside arm to ward off the contact at the 33 and stays in-bounds another 4 yards. The result is a 28-yard catch and 38 yards total on the play. Although there’s a small juggle of the ball after making a catch close to his chest, this is not indicative of Ellington’s game.

Money Catch

Making a catch into the teeth of the defense with a hit on the way is what I call the Money Catch. It’s why Anquan Boldin is about to make more money at an advanced age for a wide receiver.

Here’s a 3rd and 7 with 10:13 in the half from a 1×2 receiver, 20 personnel shotgun set. Ellington is at the left hash at the slot man facing a nickel back that is playing four yards deep and shaded outside. The ball is at the right hash of the Vandy 31.

Ellington runs a post route between the defensive backs in the red zone, making the catch over his inside shoulder, and taking a hit in the process.

[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XQOypGFtz5U&start=204&w=560&h=315]

Money.

[youtube=http://youtu.be/Ki-G4vWMK9o]

For analysis of skill players in this year’s draft class, download the 2014 Rookie Scouting Portfolio – available to pre-order now. The 2014 RSP will available for download April 1. Better yet, if you’re a fantasy owner the 56-page Post-Draft Add-on comes with the 2012 – 2014 RSPs at no additional charge and available for download within a week after the NFL Draft. Best, yet, 10 percent of every sale is donated to Darkness to Light to combat sexual abuse. You can purchase past editions of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio for just $9.95 apiece.

Reads Listens Views 2/21/2014

"+4 Wand of Instant Inferno" or as I call it, "Bruce Ellington Abstract" Photo by Dvanzuijlekom.
“+4 Wand of Instant Inferno” or as I call it, “Bruce Ellington Abstract” Photo by Dvanzuijlekom.

This Week’s RLV: 2-hr couch session on rookie QBs, Lil’ Darlin’, David Fales Developmental Gem?, 2 Muggs and my ugly mug.

Listens – Speaking of Infernos . . .

[youtube=http://youtu.be/Ns02jzH8Ccw]

Michael Brecker may look more like a Philadelphia-area accountant than a musician, but if you ever heard the Saturday Night Live Band from the 70s or listened to Cameo’s “Candy” then you know different. He’s a musician’s musician and one of the greatest saxophonists in history.

Welcome

A 261-page online publication that provides 1029 pages of play-by-play notes from my evaluation database and 10 percent of your purchase is donated to fight sexual abuse.  Pre-order 2014 now.
A 261-page online publication that provides 1029 pages of play-by-play notes from my evaluation database and 10 percent of your purchase is donated to fight sexual abuse. Pre-order 2014 now.

If you’re new to the Rookie Scouting Portfolio blog, welcome. Every Friday, I post links to things I’m checking out when I’m online. You may not like everything listed here, but you’re bound to like something. It’s also my chance to thank you for reading my work and encourage you to follow the RSP blog and buy the Rookie Scouting Portfolio publication.

For those of you new to the Rookie Scouting Portfolio, the publication is available every April 1 for download. You can learn more about the RSP here. If you want to see samples of the play-by-play notes I take to write the analysis, you can find them here. And to download past versions of the publication (2006-2012) or to pre-order the 2014 RSP, go here.

If you don’t have time to look into details, then I’ll say this about the RSP: Once you look through the RSP, there will be no question in your mind that I do the work, that I have a plan about the work that I do, and that you get more than your money’s worth.

In addition to the RSP and  the post-draft publication that comes with it a week after the NFL Draft, 10 percent of each sale is donated to Darkness to Light. This organization is a non-profit devoted to preventing and addressing sexual abuse through community training in schools, religious groups, and a variety of civic groups across the U.S.

Here is what the RSP donated to D2L this year. According to D2L, the RSP’s 2013 donation amount was enough to train 250 adults in communities across the country.

Listens

Where Bloom and I meet in the cosmos. Photo by David Stillman.
Where Bloom and I meet in the cosmos. Photo by David Stillman.

Last Night’s On The Couch: Two-hour quarterback therapy covering these topics and more:

  • Deconstructing the myths of Johnny Manziel.
  • Teddy Bridgewater and why the sum of quarterbacking is greater than its parts.
  • Which team takes the chance or passes on Derek Carr?
  • What does the choice of quarterback tell us about the personality of the head coach?
  • Sorting out the upsides of Carr, Aaron Murray, and David Fales in the context of current pros.
  • Break-downs and expectations for Brett Smith and Logan Thomas.
  • Which quarterback in this class is acting like Justin Beiber?

Good times. Hopefully you find it informative. If you want more, I was also recently on with the 2Muggs crew – not to give them second-billing, it’s just a few days older. In that podcast we have a good time talking about these topics:

  • The how and why behind the RSP Publication.
  • What makes Sammy Watkins special and is he more than speed?
  • Where does Mike Evans fit within this class and is he a special prospect?
  • Is Isaiah Crowell in a similar situation at this point of the draft process as Christine Michael last year?

In Case You Missed It and What’s Ahead at The RSP Blog

[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mZigsJdm75M&start=78&w=560&h=315]

This play illustrates where QB David Fales has the potential of an NFL starter and one of the paths he must take to reach it.

I might even have a little something about the Wonderlic Test. By the way, here’s Rotoworld’s Josh Norris getting ready for the Wonderlic.

Relax Norris, you’re ruining a great opportunity to enjoy a massage . . .

Reads (Football)

Reads (Non-Football)

For the poor farmers, building a yadong costs next to nothing – all one needs is a shovel and a few friends to dig the soil.

This dwelling dug underground is called a “yaodong” and it’s one of many homes created in unexpected places around the world. See below.

Listens – “Lil’ Darlin'”

[youtube=http://youtu.be/FMibKxQWRnw]

This is a technically difficult gem because it’s hard to swing with this kind of patience.

No-Huddle Series: David Fales, Developmental Gem?

Photo by eschipul.
Photo by eschipul.

Can San Jose State quarterback David Fales develop more velocity on this throws like Drew Brees? Read on.

Eric Stoner at Draft Mecca is one of the first draftniks I know who watched David Fales and liked his game.  I do, too. When I talked about what I saw in the 6-1, 22o-lb.starter at San Jose State to a scout I know, his response was that Fales has a “niche market” – and the scout includes himself in that group.

RSP: I’m digging on David Fales as a developmental guy at QB. I think he can learn to drive off that front foot earlier and integrate it to gm

Scout:Hah, I love Fales as a developmental guy; he’s an enigma though at times.

RSP: There are times when he anticipates and then simpler plays where he hesitates. Then plays against Cover 3 where I’m scream at the TV – CHECK-DOWN! Still, I love that he wants to bust your ass if you blitz him – Love that attitude.

Scout: He’s got a good head on his shoulders and seems to have some instincts; he will sail throws trying to compensate for arm strength though.

RSP; I think his footwork is really off. I was watching him vs. Brees just 10 minutes ago on some similar throws. Brees’ front foot comes down well before he finishes the follow-through. Fales’ front foot doesn’t’ come down until the ball is nearly out. He doesn’t drive off that front leg and the ball sails and lacks velocity on some throws.

Scout: A lot of times the footwork/stride stuff is an issue for a guy who doesn’t have a feel for when to zip it vs use touch.

RSP: And I see that. Up the middle, he’s pretty good. He can get into the 40-yard range with some zip at times. He often struggles on these throws down the middle he has to climb and his feet don’t get settled. But on the perimeter? Sometimes he can’t deliver a good ball not much more than 30 yards.

Scouts: He has a bad habit of not driving balls outside; I saw it pretty clearly in Senior Bowl up in the crow’s nest with [deleted]. Yeah, he’s a pretty niche market guy, but I still like him well enough to say he could be a No.3 right away with solid potential.

Here are a few things that I’ve seen in recent weeks-months that led me to broach the topic of Fales. These are visual examples of some of the things discussed above.

Pocket Presence and Aggressive Mentality

This is a 1st and 10 pass with 9:23 in the first quarter from a 2×2 receiver, 10 personnel shotgun set versus the San Diego State Aztecs. The ball is at the 35 of the opponent’s left hash and the defense is playing a 3-3-5 look with no safety deep. Five defenders at at the line of scrimmage, including two edge rushers standing up outside the tackles.

On this play Fales takes a three-step drop looking left as the defense sends all five defenders to the pocket. As he finishes this three-step drop, his focus turns to the middle of the field. Fales’ eye manipulation and skill at working through multiple receivers during a drop back is a consistent part of his game.

As Fales finishes his drop, pressure form the edge takes an inside track to the pocket. Fales does a good job of climbing inside the defender and throwing the ball from the 42 of San Diego State’s left hash to the eight. The receiver is running a post breaking to the middle of the field.

[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mZigsJdm75M&start=78&w=560&h=315]

Although the receiver drops this target – a pass that is catchable, it’s a low throw. What I like about the throw is the placement between the S and the CB. What’s disappointing is that if Fales delivered this ball with more velocity and on a line, he could have hit the receiver in stride beyond the saety and inside the corner for a touchdown.

This is the type of throw a starter at the NFL drives on a line for a score and has commentators drooling over the throw. If Fales can develop a better arm to drive the ball 40-45 yards rather only 34 yards, his pocket presence, field vision, and anticipation make him a promising player.

Here’s another example of Fales splitting the zone defenders after addressing pressure. This is a 3rd-and-12 with 1:55 in the third quarter from a 2×2 receiver, 10-personnel shotgun set with the ball at the 45 of San Jose State.

The Aztecs’ defense is once again using a 3-3-5 look. Fales takes a three-step drop facing four defenders attacking the pocket. He looks left, turns right, and hitches a step before throwing the crossing route that splits two defenders in zone for an 18-yard completion and a first down.

[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mZigsJdm75M&start=610&w=560&h=315]

Extrapolate the velocity of this throw to the first highlight and you see the possibilities for Fales if he can achieve greater arm strength and velocity. If not, this range of 18-30 yards will be what he does best.

It’s a range that’s good enough for Fales to provide services as a valued backup – especially a player with his pocket presence, anticipation, and aggressive mentality. I love that Fales often sees the open field the blitz has left behind and he loves to get rid of the ball fast to take advantage of it.

When the play allows Fales to drop the ball in the bucket with distance and touch rather than distance and velocity, the San Jose State quarterback does this as well as any quarterback in this class. However at this point, Fales’ eyes often exceed his arm.

There are situations where I watch Fales forgo the check-down to a running back and he’ll  wait an extra beat to attack down field to the detriment of the play because he lacks the gun to hit his receiver on-time an in a tight window from that range. His tight-window accuracy is good, but when the velocity fails, Fales falters.

Development Opportunity: Footwork

One of the ways Fales misses receivers in the deep-intermediate and deep zones is overthrows. I’m sure this seems counter-intuitive after I just explained that Fales’ lacks velocity on deeper throws. However, overthrows are the result of a quarterback trying to push the ball with mechanics that aren’t tight enough to deliver the ball on a line.

This 1st and 10 with 13:50 in the game is a good example. Fales and the offices is in an 11 personnel shotgun set with the ball at the 17 of  from a 2×1 receiver,  11-personnel shotgun set against the Aztec’s one-deep safety over a 3-3-5 look.

San Diego State sends five men to the pocket – three from the left side as Fales drops looking to the middle. Fales sees what he wants and off the third step of his drop, he sets and delivers the ball from the right hash at the San Jose State 9 to the 48 of San Diego State – a 43-yard throw from release point to potential catch point.

However, the pass is thrown too far and one of the problems is the arc on the ball. Fales’ effort to throw the ball for distance sacrifices the low-arc needed to reach the receiver who is open by a step.

One of the problems is Fales’ feet as he delivers the ball. He’s not driving off that front foot before the ball leaves his hand. Instead, the ball is leaving as he’s still transferring his weight. Watch how his feet move with a rougher, stilted motion as the ball comes out.

[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mZigsJdm75M&start=647&w=560&h=315]

Now compare Fales’ motion with a player like Drew Brees, a fine deep thrower and a guy of similar dimensions who got better with his velocity after leaving Purdue. My suggestion, refresh your browser each time to queue the Fales throw and Brees throw if comparing the two.

[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8VWV_-devqQ&start=11&w=560&h=315]

Brees’ time on his front foot while delivering the ball is much longer than Fales’. Brees is driving off that foot. Fales has to learn to do this with all of his throws.

If the rookie was forced to start in the NFL today, teams would force him to make plays beyond the limitations of his range and he would look like a sub par player. However, give Fales 2-3 years to integrate this footwork into every throw, add some muscle, and gain more understanding of more complex defensive looks, and I wouldn’t be at all surprised if this prospect offers value to a team as a primary backup.

And if the arm strength gets a lot better, I wouldn’t be shocked if Fales knocks on the door of that NFL starter club.

For analysis of skill players in this year’s draft class, download the 2014 Rookie Scouting Portfolio – available to pre-order now. The 2014 RSP will available for download April 1. Better yet, if you’re a fantasy owner the 56-page Post-Draft Add-on comes with the 2012 – 2014 RSPs at no additional charge and available for download within a week after the NFL Draft. Best, yet, 10 percent of every sale is donated to Darkness to Light to combat sexual abuse. You can purchase past editions of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio for just $9.95 apiece.