Posts tagged Matt Waldman NFL Draft

Reads Listens Views 10/24/2013

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This looked like an overthrow, but it was a rookie mistake by the promising Johnathan Franklin. Read the Gut Check and find out why.
This looked like an overthrow, but it was a rookie mistake by the promising Johnathan Franklin. Read the Gut Check and find out why.

Thanks

If you’re new to the RSP blog, every Friday I post Reads Listens Views – items I’m consuming on the Internet. Some of it is football, a lot of it isn’t. You won’t like everything I share, but I believe you’ll like at least one thing each week. It’s also a chance for me to thank you for reading my content on this blog, at Footballguys, Football Outsiders, and (each January) The New York Times.

And most of all, I get to thank those of you who support my work here and elsewhere by purchasing The Rookie Scouting Portfolio publication.

For the uninitiated, the RSP is The Rookie Scouting Portfolio, my annual publication that is the most comprehensive analysis of skill position players around. I have nearly 1300 pages of quality content (just for 2013) to back that up. Learn about it here. You can download 2013’s publication ($19.95) or get past issues at half price ($9.95) at this link. I give 10 percent of each sale to Darkness to Light, a non-profit devoted to preventing sexual abuse in communities through the creation and implementation of training and awareness programs.

Evan Silva, thank you for reminding us on Twitter of this gem.

Listens

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I’ve played my share of Derek Trucks guitar solos in this weekly feature, but Susan Tedeschi performs a tasty one here.

Football Reads

  • Football Outsiders’ Film Room – Cian Fahey does a sweet job studying Ryan Tannehill and Joe Haden. I like his focus on cornerbacks, it makes me think about receivers. If Cian’s knee wasn’t as old as I am I’d like to pair what I’ve learned against what he knows with a reasonable passer targeting me. Fahey, if you dish any of that Janoris Jenkins trash my way – even in Irish slang – you’ll wish I was Steve Smith.
  • Guide to the NFL Workout Circuit – Former National Football Post writer and NFL safety Matt Bowen writes about the vicious cycle of in-season tryouts to join a team.
  • Disruption Is Production – Josh Norris and I have a mutual admiration society going. Within a week of each other we posted articles about two of the most disruptive defensive tackles in college football and why their on-field production doesn’t always appear in the box score. Good stuff if you want to get past headlines that do nothing but perpetuate shallow knowledge of the game you love.
  • Random Shots – Joe Bryant, with a little help from some great friends, writes a terrific feature on the lighter side of the NFL. Bryant has a simple, direct style that makes for great reading.
  • The Gut Check No.283: The Gut Check’s Film Room – I open the home theater for a double feature of Jarrett Boykin and Case Keenum with a short feature on Joique Bell.

Views – Mandatory Education on The War on Drugs

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uuCVbR8vO_U]

Listens

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Non-Football Reads

  • Russell Brand Started a Revolution Last Night – Whether you agree or disagree with Brand, I like that he encourages people to question things we often take for granted. Most of all, I love that he doesn’t take a reporter’s agenda and format for granted and instead questions them at every turn on their modus operandi. Keep holding the mirror to their faces until they realize they’re behavior is a silly game.
  • Why I Made Blackfish –The documentary about Sea World’s practice of keeping Orcas in captivity is heartbreaking, but a must-see. Did you know there’s no human fatality by an Orca on record in the wild? Go figure.
  • Wildlife Photographer of the Year – Worth viewing some beauty in its element right about now, am I right?
  • U.S. Rivers Packed With Garbage – Silly me, to think garbage only went in our landfills and legislatures.
  • Thinking Fast And Slow – Adam Harstad is a long-time Footballguys’ Shark Pool regular and new staff writer. He recommended this book from heralded economist on cognitive bias. Adding it to my reading list.

Views – Most Popular Boys’ Names By Year Since 1960 – Gif From The Atlantic

Listens

[youtube=http://youtu.be/nls1HtXQe8E]

I like this pop group. These guys can sing, play, and jazz up something that would otherwise be pretty bland.

Futures: Arizona State DT Will Sutton

0 Comments read 2014 NFL Draft, Players
Will Sutton may not be the next Geno Atkins, but his "senior year slump" is a gross mischaracterization. Photo by Ashley and Matthew Hemingway.
Will Sutton may not be the next Geno Atkins, but his “senior year slump” is a gross mischaracterization. Photo by Ashley and Matthew Hemingway.

The Arizona State defensive tackle’s story is turning into another example of where the system is focused on spotting flaws more than serious consideration of how to maximize available talent.

Futures: Arizona State DT Will Sutton

By Matt Waldman

Unusual. Not typical. Uncommon. Extraordinary.

These are all meanings of “exceptional”.

The best talent evaluators create opportunities within their process to find the exceptional. They understand what business writer George Anders means when he says that it’s important to keep channels openbecause talent does not always fit the typical requirements:

When hiring talent, many companies generally search for candidates with narrow, time-tested backgrounds. Hunting strictly in those familiar zones doesn’t find everybody, however. When selectors apply such rules too tightly, lots of fascinating candidates on the fringe get overlooked. There’s no mechanism for considering the 100-to-1 long shot, let alone the 1,000-to-1 candidate. On a one at-a-time basis, it’s easy to say that such candidates aren’t worth the time it would take to assess them. Yet ignoring all of these outsiders can mean squandering access to a vast amount of talent.

Good organizations, according to Anders, know how to balance a conventional process for hiring talent while taking more progressive attitudes about the initial search:

  • Not restricting where they seek talent. Being open to alternate sources limits how often they have to pay a “conformity tax” by doing what everyone else does. Think Victor Cruz at UMass. The fact the Giants were willing to give Cruz a tryout was more than one could say about many teams.
  • Suspending disbelief about a candidate in the early stages of evaluation. Seeing potential value instead of writing off a candidate before evaluating him. Think of the several NFL teams, scouts, and media-hired evaluators whose grades of Russell Wilson were low because they’re processes are about spotting flaws more than spotting skill or opportunities for skills to thrive. Of the many scouts who did see Wilson’s talent, a majority were driven by the preconceived expectation that their bosses would punish them for championing a player they knew their superiors would dismiss without an open evaluation of the quarterback’s ability.
  • Realizing that other industries cultivate desirable skills that can create a viable pool of talent. Think Antonio Gates, Jimmy Graham, and Tony Gonzalez – three basketball players in college and were encouraged to makefootball their professional goal.

Gates, Graham, and Gonzalez aren’t just examples of progressive scouts and front office types. They each heeded an inner belief that they could play at the highest level. This is a part of being an exceptional talent.

LaRoi Glover was an exceptional talent. The former Saint’s resume is that of a future Hall of Famer: Six consecutive trips to the Pro Bowl (2000-2005), a four-time All-Pro, and a member of the NFL’s 2000s All-Decade Team. Headlining those accomplishments was a 2000 season where Glover led the NFL in sacks and earned NFC Defensive Player of the Year –as a defensive tackle.

Few NFL teams had anywhere close to this level of regard for Glover’s potential. A two-time All-WAC defender from San Diego State, Glover entered the league as a 6’2”, 290-pound rookie – a generous listing of his physical dimensions. A baseline weight for NFL defensive tackles – even the speedier, agile three-techniques in a 4-3 defense like Warren Sapp – is 300 pounds.

The Oakland Raiders selected Glover in the fifth round of the 1996 NFL Draft. The team used the rookie in two games during the month of November and at season’s end, allocated Glover to the Barcelona Dragons of the World League. Glover earned all-league honors, but it wasn’t enough for the Raiders to give him a second look. Oakland cut Glover on August 24 of the 1997 preseason.

The Saints signed the defensive tackle the following day and they weren’t as dismissive with Glover’s potential. They gave Glover a chance to play based on what they saw and not what their coaches were guessing. The next three seasons, the young defender demonstrated great promise – earning a total of 23 sacks.

In 2000, new head coach Jim Haslett moved Glover to the three-technique, paired the explosive tackle with space eater Norman Hand, and the rest is history.

Read the rest at Football Outsiders. 

Futures: Florida State WR Rashad Greene

0 Comments read 2014 NFL Draft, Matt Waldman
When I watch FSU WR Rashad Greene, I see shades of Desean Jackson's game. Photo by Avinashkunnath.
When I watch FSU WR Rashad Greene, I see shades of Desean Jackson’s game. Photo by Avinashkunnath.

Futures: Florida State WR Rashad Greene

By Matt Waldman

When it comes to workouts, interviews, and background investigations, I have nothing on the NFL. I’m just like everyone else; I’m waiting to hear the outcomes of whatever the league shares with the public. But after speaking with former and current scouts, I can say with confidence that the NFL has nothing on me when it comes to my process for evaluating on-field performance.

It sounds a lot like I’m saying that I know more about football than NFL scouts and front offices, but what I mean is that I believe I have a process that does a better job of helping an evaluator structure his thinking and get out of his own way. I’ve seen scouting reports from the National Scouting Service as well as reports form NFL teams. Based on the structure of their reporting, many teams don’t realize that their methodology often gets in the way of their collective knowledge.

They don’t have a written working definition for every positional technique they observe. They don’t possess a weighted score assigned to each. And they don’t categorize and define the level of difficulty to improve skills as a player transitions to the NFL.

I know of an NFL player-personnel man borrowing some of my ideas to incorporate into his team’s scouting processes. This is because the things I described eliminate some of the inherent variation that exists among scouts and management. But this type of change in thinking is a slow sell compared to upgrading technology that allows them to do the same things they’ve been doing for 50 years – only with greater speed and convenience.

While I believe my process is a good start towards a consistent approach when evaluating players, at the end of the day there’s no denying that scouting talent is a subjective process. Subjectivity can be a bad word – especially for a site like Football Outsiders, which strives to use data to arrive at insights that provide a counterpoint to fallacies stemming from what we observe on a qualitative level. However, I doubt anyone writing for this site would say all subjective analysis is bad.

I believe in the power of intuition. Some of you who lean hard on black and white thinking may be turned off to that idea. The idea that intuition is a bodily indicator based on factors we cannot fully explain (yet) is hogwash. I can’t help you there – you feel similar about it or you don’t.

When I evaluate a player and his performance evokes a feeling that I attribute to intuition, I accept that feeling. It doesn’t mean that I ignore my scouting process or change my outcomes, but I have learned to pay attention to those emotions.

Sometimes what resonates when I watch a player is something that is a part of my everyday life: I’m a magnet for the troubled. I’ve learned how to see it coming in life, but in football, I am still learning that many players I have a strong feeling about are prospects carrying a lot of off-field baggage that bleeds into their professional lives.

Read the rest at Football Outsiders.

Futures at Football Outsiders: Texas A&M QB Johnny Manziel

0 Comments read 2014 NFL Draft, Players, Quarterback
Manziel epitomizes the strengths and weaknesses of a creative manager. See below. Photo by Matt Velazquez.
Manziel epitomizes the strengths and weaknesses of a creative manager. See below. Photo by Matt Velazquez.

Futures: Texas A&M QB Johnny Manziel

by Matt Waldman

Management Style and Quarterbacking

In last week’s Futures on Georgia quarterback Aaron Murray, I described quarterbacking styles within the context of task-oriented management and creative management. Be it a white-collar, blue-collar, or athletic career, these are two basic ends of the spectrum when talking about management styles.

Task-oriented managers love the routine and rhythm of a predictable, reliable process. As they acquire more experience, a high-functioning, task-oriented manager knows the boundaries of his processes so well that he’ll often appear far more spontaneous to a wide range of problems than he is.

Matt Ryan and Tom Brady are perfect examples of high-functioning, task-oriented quarterbacks. They know every detail of what’s supposed to be happening in their environment and control it so well that they can anticipate most things that defenses will attempt to wreck an offense’s performance. When their teammates are playing efficiently, they appear far more creative than they are because their level of preparation helps them develop processes to avoid the same major issues that confound less experienced passers.

I mentioned Peyton Manning and Drew Brees as task-oriented quarterbacks last week, but I’m having second thoughts. It’s not an exaggeration that Manning is a coach on the field. I’ve talked to a former Colts player who has played with three other teams and he affirms that Manning is unique in this regard. His intelligence and preparation might exceed every other quarterback who has ever played the game.

This gives Manning a much wider box of operation than any quarterback in the game, regardless of style. His creativity comes in the strategic aspects of the game, but it’s rooted in having a fantastic memory and method of preparation. Last year ESPN ran a story about Manning contacting a former staffer with Tennessee to help him find tape of a play that he remembered was successful. Manning implemented it successfully as a red-zone call during the season.

If I had to make a final call, I’d stick with the task-oriented label for Manning. I’m not as certain about Brees.

I wonder if Brees is that rare individual who balances both worlds of task-oriented preparation and creative and intuitive problem solving when it’s time to perform. While the Saints quarterback is obsessive to the point that the smallest details of his workout routines don’t change –- to the point that teammates have to cut short what they’re doing to accommodate their quarterback — I’ve also seen Brees create when form and function go out the window and he does it as well as many of the quarterbacks on the far end of the creative spectrum.

I believe Russell Wilson is also one of those players. His task-oriented skills are strong. When he arrived in Madison, Wisconsin he learned the Badgers system -– a more task-oriented, rhythm based, West Coast offense –- in record time. His preparation was so strong that he not only earned the starting job without contest, he was also voted team captain.

But it was his play in North Carolina State’s offense for three years that impressed me the more than he did at Wisconsin. Wilson had to merge his understanding and execution of the offensive system’s process with his athleticism and creativity. He made off-balanced throws with anticipation and accuracy against blitzes that generally fluster most task-oriented passers. He could buy time, keep his head about him, and create productive results when the plays broke down beyond all sense of recognition.

Read the rest at Football Outsiders

Reads Listens Views 8/2/2013

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It's already difficult enough for the NFL to pick a prized catch from the multitudes. Even so, it needs to keep getting better. See below. Photo from National Geographic.
It’s already difficult enough for the NFL to pick a prized catch from the multitudes. Even so, it needs to keep getting better. See below. Photo from National Geographic.

Views

[youtube=http://youtu.be/0Q5pW6I0sEk]

Nica’s Dream – great tune performed by an excellent guitarist.

Football Read & Commentary

Thompkins might be an example of how most NFL teams weren't thorough enough with character evaluation. Photo by expatsfootball.com
Thompkins might be an example of how most NFL teams weren’t thorough enough with character evaluation. Photo by expatsfootball.com

Kenbrell Thompkins Rescues Himself From Woes – I think most of you get it: I’m rooting for Thompkins because I liked what I saw from him on the field. Another reason is what I read in Michael McKnight’s Sports Illustrated piece on Thompkins well before the Patriots signed him.  The Boston Herald delves a little deeper into Thompkins’ story now that the UDFA wide out has impressed just about everyone who has attended a training camp practice. I’ve written about the public and private scrutiny of character  and the gulf that young players often have to traverse to transition from college star to productive professional.

I’m linking to Thompkins’ camp reports so much this preseason, because I think it’s important to celebrate people who turn their lives around and make good.  Regardless of whether he becomes a productive player, Thompkins is proof positive that people can grow past the mistakes of their youth. If it is true that NFL teams didn’t sign him due to his seven arrests in high school then it’s also an indication that there’s significant flaws in the evaluation process – especially when it comes to assessing character.

Read the two stories above and you’ll understand that this young man hasn’t been arrested in eight years. He’s been on a zero-tolerance program with Cincinnati’s Butch Jones. He worked his tail off in Torrance, California to learn the receiver position. He graduated with a degree in criminal justice.

If a team didn’t draft him due to seven arrests before adulthood then I have to believe that they aren’t examining players with enough depth or perspective. They didn’t consider when he was arrested and his law-abiding behavior since. If they interviewed any of the coaches, teammates, or family members of Thompkins, they either didn’t trust what they heard or took a way too cautious approach. I believe they were covering their asses.

It’s easy to jump through hoops and say you’re thorough, but if you’re not truly analyzing the information, what is all that time, money, and effort worth? That’s the blow-back of a public relations-conscious society: We spend more time focused on covering ourselves to avoid looking bad than actually spending the time to make a good decision. Saying you’re being thorough so you’re not scrutinized and being thorough so you can face it with confidence are two different things.

At the same time, Thompkins’ 78 catches, 1077 yards, and 4 touchdowns in 2 years isn’t fantastic college production so there could have been a good argument made that teams expected to be able to wait until the end of the draft to sign the receiver. However, the fact that Butch Jones had use his connections to sell the Patriots on Thompkins is a telling sign that the NFL saw “seven arrests” and didn’t bother to look hard enough.

There’s lots of talk from former scouts that NFL teams spend as much or more money on private investigators and delving into character than studying on-field performance. If that’s true, Thompkins is a developing into a compelling case why the quality of the legwork may need further review.

Remember great players are exceptions to the role. They are unconventional. If you’re only willing to consider some template version of what’s good to cover your hind parts then you’ll never spot the exceptional.

Views

Speaking of exceptional. This "MJD-like dude" (according to Rex Ryan) is impressing with his speed and pass protection in Jets training camp.
Speaking of exceptional. This “MJD-like dude” (according to Rex Ryan) is impressing with his speed and pass protection in Jets training camp. Keep up the good work and Manish Mehta will remember your first name.

Views

[youtube=http://youtu.be/_Amwq43-lrM]

Now this is how you do “Happy Birthday”

Non-Football Reads

Views – Bob Burnquist (Thanks to Sigmund Bloom)

[youtube=http://youtu.be/tSnfO15cAHE]

This is a well-executed creative life. Inspiring stuff to see a man build this environment to continue growing in his field. I understand the desire.

Views – Chain of Fools

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Kind of looks like “Boogie Woogie Man” Jimmy Valiant, don’t you think?

A 261-page online publication that provides 1029 pages of play-by-play notes from my evaluation database and 10 percent of your purchase is donated to fight sexual abuse.
A 261-page online publication that provides 1029 pages of play-by-play notes from my evaluation database and 10 percent of your purchase is donated to fight sexual abuse.

Thank You

Generally, I post this in the beginning. If you’re new to the Rookie Scouting Portfolio blog then you may wonder why I’m posting non-football content today. Every Friday I like to change things up a bit to share what I found compelling during the week. Some of the stories are difficult reads and the music may not be your taste, but that’s just the luck of the draw. What I hope you’ll find worthwhile is this blog when I’m writing about football.

Based on the response thus far, you deserve a lot of thanks for helping me grow this outlet since its inception in 2011. That goes double for those of you who have taken the plunge and purchase the Rookie Scouting Portfolio publication. Now in its eighth year, the RSP is the most comprehensive – and perhaps meticulous – study of rookie skill players available.

For $19.95 you get both a pre-draft publication that includes rankings, game report cards, and play-by-play analysis for each player and a post-draft publication that updates rankings into a tiered cheat sheet and provides draft value data, and analysis on each player’s fit with his new team.  If you’re a fantasy football owner this publication will supply you with the information and perspective you’ll need to pull the trigger (or refrain) in re-draft and dynasty leagues.

I don’t have a mass audience like the big boys, but you should know that my readers are repeat customers who often have a “slap their forehead moment” once they make the decision to purchase the RSP because it’s worth more than they pay for it. The first-time buyers tell me so.

This is a career for me every year I try to make it better than the last in terms of quality of content, transparency of analysis, and improvement of my evaluation process.  Because I spend so much time creating this information, I don’t get to make the time I’d like to give back to the community in the way I was once accustomed in my youth. So it dawned on me in 2012 to donate 10 percent of every sale to a cause I believe in: Darkness to Light. This organization trains individuals and community organizations to recognize and prevent sexual abuse in communities. As football fans, I think we know first hand how even smart, accomplished people can do a poor job of handling the issue of sexual abuse.

Get the RSP and make this a win (you) – win (me) – win (giving back to the community) scenario and download the 2013 RSP now. Past issues (2006-2012) are available for $9.95.

Reads Listens Views 4/19/2013

0 Comments read Reads Listens Views
If Davis can hold onto the ball after the catch as well as he holds onto after contact in the act of the reception, he could have a nice NFL career. Photo by Go Iowa State.
Coming this weekend – a No-Huddle edition featuring Iowa WR Keenan Davis. A better prospect than you may think. Photo by Go Iowa State.

More draft analysis on the way from RSPHQ – including more from the No-Huddle Series and Boiler Room and my take on Cordarrelle Patterson from the perspective of Football Outsiders and its Playmaker Score. If you’re new to the RSP blog, welcome to my Friday post Reads Listens Views, my chance to share things I’ve been checking out in recent weeks – football and non-football alike.

Listens

Joseph Tawadros plays the Oud, which is the daddy of the Lute. It’s a beautiful, soulful instrument and this tune is has a steady simmer worth a listen.

[youtube=http://youtu.be/aND8DYDfXQU]

Thank You

I think we’ve all been in a situation where you have the ability to help a friend, but you don’t think he wants your assistance. However, it’s obvious that you’d be just the person to help and he never utters a peep to indicate he wants it. Sigmund Bloom had that experience with me in recent years. He kidded me recently about me never asking him to write anything to tell my readers why they should buy the RSP.

I was embarrassed. I just figured most folks knew Bloom as my friend and colleague so it made more sense to share testimonials from folks who, relative to Bloom, don’t know me from Adam. But I am honored that Bloom wants to share his view of the RSP. Especially when he publishes an always excellent collection of Scouting Reports and rankings. There’s his great work at B/R and the iconic, Bloom 100. If you’re a fantasy owner, the Bloom 100 is a MUST-READ because its writer distills each class into a simple list of tiers with a rookie draft in mind. It takes a strong grasp of player talent and fantasy football dynamics to pull off as well as Bloom.

Here’s Bloom’s thoughts on the RSP and I’d like to thank him for asking me to share it:

The Rookie Scouting Portfolio is the best guide to the QB, RB, WR, and TE talents in the draft because it goes deeper than any other guide. Because Matt shows his math with hundreds of intensely detailed individual game breakdowns. Because it ranks prospects not just overall, but for each attribute. Because if you read between the lines, Matt is teaching you how to scout these positions, what to look for, how to articulate what you see. It’s a must for any serious football fan, fantasy football player, or anyone that wants to get smarter about watching football.

If you haven’t bought the RSP before, I can say with pride that you’ll get as much out of it as I put into it – and I put everything I can into it. My readers will tell you they love it. If you’re on fence, I am confident that you’ll realize this is one of those cases where there’s little hype to what I’m saying here. Plus, I donate 10 percent of each sale to Darkness to Light, a non-profit whose mission is to prevent and combat sexual abuse through community training and awareness.

Download the RSP now and know that with your purchase, you also get access to the Post-Draft publication when I announce it available within the week after the NFL Draft. At the very least, follow this blog click on the link on the left to follow and you’ll receive email updates when I post new articles. Then consider supporting the site (and do yourself a favor at the same time) by downloading the publication.

Views

Mine Kafon – Thanks to Jeff Haseley for sharing this invention, which is a sobering reminder that we’re all special people and special people are dying everyday around the world due to explosives.

Football Reads

Listens

The Dave Holland Quintet is one of the best bands in music today. They are at the top of my list of groups to see.

[youtube=http://youtu.be/E2qIZ-BwiE4]

Non-Football Reads

  • Serenity Amidst A Sea Of Haze – Adrian Landin is a world traveler and blogger of his experiences who sometimes hits me up for fantasy advice when Internet is available. Landin’s blog is a collection of excellent photography. This post is about witnessing 12,999 Buddhist monks walking the main street in a city in Thailand. I think what he captures is worth sharing. Especially if you need 10 minutes to feel transported from your current surroundings.
  • How Quickly the U.S. Got Fat  – It ain’t pretty, but it ain’t over either – we can do something about this one if we choose.
  • The 10-Year Hoodie – One U.S. company’s commitment to make a quality product built to last the way things used to before much of Corporate America went beyond greedy and turned into a virus.
  • Think Those Chemicals Have Been Tested? – Many Americans assume that the chemicals in their shampoos, detergents and other consumer products have been thoroughly tested and proved to be safe. This assumption is wrong.
  • U.S. Practiced Torture after 9-11 – And it put our troops in greater danger.

Futures: Why Scouting Gets a Bum Rap – A Front Office Overhaul

0 Comments read Matt Waldman
It's time to take front offices to the Wood Shed. No beatings though. Photo by Richard Elzey.
It’s time to take front offices to the wood shed. No beatings though. Photo by Richard Elzey.

Scouting gets a bum rap.

“Of course Waldman would say this,” you proclaim. “He’s a scout!”

I may perform the fundamental role of one, but I am not a scout. This elicits laughter from my friend Ryan Riddle. The Bleacher Report columnist who holds Cal’s single season sack record and played with the Raiders, Ravens, and Jets says I have a misplaced sense of honor when it comes to refusing to wear that label.

I prefer talent evaluator, tape watcher, tapehound, or tapehead. My friends – if I have any left since I started doing this work eight years ago – might say ‘Film Hermit’ is the best fit. I’ve never worked for an NFL team, so these names seem more suitable to me. Scouts have responsibilities that I don’t – among them is reporting to management within a company structure.

If you have the chance to learn about the pre-draft process for most NFL teams, scouting is the study of a player’s positive and negative characteristics. It’s also an evaluation of how easy it is to fix the player’s issues and his potential fit within a team system. But based on what former scouts, coaches, and general managers of NFL teams say about the machinations that go into a team’s draft, I am thankful that I am not a scout.

While fans and writers may take the lazy route and blame picks gone wrong on poor scouting, it’s the general manager, coach, and owner who hold the weight of the decision-making power. This is a huge reason why scouting gets a bum rap.

To take it a step further, I’ll advance the popular Bill Parcells analogy of ‘buying the groceries.’ I can spend months in the grocery store and tell you that it has quality cuts of grass-fed steak; a delicious, rosemary batard baked in-house; and every variety of apple found in North America. But if those holding the wallet or cooking the food demand a papaya, I can tell them until I’m blue in the face that if they want a good one, it’s only found in Jamaica and they’re still going to pick an unripe one, take it home, prepare it, and then watch it spoil the meal.

It doesn’t help matters when I have to read Mike Tanier describe draft analysis as a pseudoscience. He’s right for the wrong reasons. Scouting is a craft, not a science. However, teams haven’t made it the same priority to address opportunities to improve scouting the way they have upgraded technology and embraced other forms of analysis.

With all the advances that the NFL has made with equipment, strategy, cap management, and technology, they haven’t done enough to advance the process of talent evaluation. It shouldn’t the sports equivalent of Madam Zora’s, but until teams address the problems, Tanier gets to write entertaining draft pieces at their expense.

I think there is a lot that teams can do to improve their talent evaluation processes. What I will propose here are things I’ve learned from my experience in operations and process improvement. I base my solutions on problems I’ve gleaned in conversations with former scouts, reading and listening to former NFL general managers talk about their past roles, and extensive study of college prospects for the past eight years.

Some of these ideas may be new to the NFL, but I don’t begin to think they are revolutionary in the scope of other industries. I’m sharing these things because it’s too easy to listen to a gray-haired man in a suit on a television network and take what he says as gospel – especially processes that are in fact fundamentally flawed and then perpetuated from generation to generation of football men.

When viewing NFL front offices and how they cope with change, I get the impression that many of them have a buttoned-up, low-risk culture similar in dynamic to Wall Street. It also takes a lot for newer ideas to take hold in an NFL front office as it does for an investment bank to accept “new blood” from a business school lacking a history of established connections with the firm as a personnel pipeline.

Some of what I’ll suggest is not even about new ideas; just better implementation of old concepts. The first point below is a good example where leaders tend to talk the talk better than they walk it.

Read the rest at Football Outsiders.

2013 RSP Publication Update

0 Comments read RSP Publication
Catch your copy of the 2013 RSP on April 1. Photo by Joint Base Lewis McChord.
Catch your copy of the 2013 RSP on April 1. Photo by Joint Base Lewis McChord.

Good Morning.

One day before the 2013 RSP will be available for download at mattwaldman.com and I thought you’d like a status update. I just finished writing the final section of the publication and tomorrow I will be reviewing edits and constructing the publication. As soon as the construction of the document is ready, I will uploading it to the site for download.

I have no estimated timeline in terms of hour it will be ready, but I can give you some details about the publication:

  • 175 players
    • 19 QBs
    • 48 RBs
    • 80 WRs
    • 28 TEs
  • Front of the book: 203 pages of analysis
    • NFL Draft and fantasy overviews of each position
      • Historical draft data by position
      • Historical production data by round
    • Skill breakdowns
      • NEW: Ease of Fix Analysis by position
      • Skill chart rankings by position
        • Best
        • Needs Improvement
        • Worst
    • Notable players at each position
      • Overrated
      • Underrated
      • Projects
    • Player Profiles/Rankings
      • 19 QBs
      • Top 45 RBs
      • Top 45 WRs
      • Top 20 TEs
    • Ranking and Comaprison Cheatsheets and with commentary
      • 19 QBs
      • 45 RBs
      • 60 WRs
      • 27 TEs
  • Not included in the 203 pages:
    • A 15-page glossary of defined criteria I use for my play-by-play my analysis
    • A 37-page Abbreviated Draft Guide

As far as the play-by-play notes and grading checklists, I haven’t gotten to it yet. But when  you combine this 203-page rookie analysis publication with several hundred pages of my notes and player reports organized alphabetically by player position, you’re probably looking at 1000 pages of skill player madness.

Past copies are also available at www.mattwaldman.com and remember, 10 percent of every sale goes to Darkness to Light, a non-profit devoted to training communities to prevent sexual abuse.

Futures: Duke QB Sean Renfree

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Manning quarterback-guru David Cutcliffe says Duke quarterback Sean Renfree is the steal of the draft. Find out why.
Manning quarterback-guru David Cutcliffe says Duke quarterback Sean Renfree is the steal of the draft. Find out why.

The steal of the draft. That’s what Duke head coach David Cutcliffe says about Blue Devils quarterback Sean Renfree, a 6-foot-3, 219-pound senior. Renfree is the latest in the line of Cutcliffe disciples that includes Peyton and Eli Manning. That list also has current NFL backup Thaddeus Lewis and former Jets reserve Erik Ainge — both well below the Manning tier where physical talent, quarterback technique, and on-field savvy intersect -– but prospects coaches still valued.

At this time of the year, coaches will often do public relations work for their players who have faded into the background of a crowded class of prospects. During his first year at Stanford, Jim Harbaugh showed scouts and media game tape of his former starting quarterback at the University of San Diego, Josh Johnson.

Cutcliffe did enough to promote Lewis’ stock at Duke that the St. Louis Rams invited the quarterback into camp in 2010, where the rookie impressed Pat Shurmur enough in the preseason that the coach took a chance on the former Blue Devils player in Cleveland. Lewis actually started the 2012 finale against Pittsburgh and delivered a 22-of-32, 204-yard performance, with one touchdown and one interception, in his first NFL regular season action.

So is Cutcliffe’s steal of the draft spin justified? Are Peter King and Mel Kiper hitching rides on a sleeper bandwagon headed for a steep cliff? Or is there gold on the horizon?

Renfree, who backed up Lewis, was the more highly-regarded quarterback in Durham. After earning the starting job as a sophomore, Renfree had three seasons with at least a 61-percent completion percentage, and two at 65 percent or above. Although Duke has an active short-passing game, there’s a lot to share that illustrates why the positive buzz has merit.

Cutcliffe’s offense is rooted in a pro style, and Renfree has experience with a variety of drops and fakes where he has to manipulate the defense with his eyes and body while delivering throws with anticipation and accuracy against pressure. Renfree and Tulane’s Ryan Griffin and Renfree are two examples of why I believe this 2013 quarterback class may lack star power at the top, but its middle and bottom tiers have more potential than the 2012 group.

Read the rest at Football Outsiders