Posts tagged Matt Waldman Rookie Scouting Portfolio

A Game of Inches: The Talent Gap By the Numbers

April 16, 2014 0 Comments read 2014 NFL Draft, Matt Waldman, RSP Publication

Based on these numbers, less than 1 percent of the seniors playing college football will ever earn a second contract in the NFL.

Greg Linton, an NFL agent, shared this on Twitter this morning. There’s another salient point embedded in this data that goes beyond the message of “get your education.” It’s how data displays the differences in execution. It is a great way to see the differences between “good” college football and “good” NFL football.

Only the top 6.5 percent of all high school players compete at the college level. It means they are in the 93.5 percentile of all high school players. Likewise, only the top 1.6 percent of all college players enter the NFL–the 98.4 percentile. And that second NFL contract–the seal of approval that you’re a good NFL player–is reserved for less than one percent of all college players; the 99.06 percentile.

Viewing the numbers in this fashion, it doesn’t look like a big difference between the 93.5 percentile, the 98.4 percentile, and the 99.06 percentile. You’d be mistaken.

This may be a stretch for some–and it certainly isn’t scientific–but for the sake of entertainment, let’s presume that these percentiles were a reflection of a player’s success rate executing plays on a per snap basis. I understand this is not exact, but I think there’s enough to this idea to suspend disbelief long enough to make an overall point that is worthwhile.

The table below shows the amount of errors–or bad plays–that a player would commit over the course of a million plays based these percentiles that represent their standing as a college (93.5 percentile), NFL prospect (98.4 percentile), or NFL vet earning a second contract (99.07 percentile).

Plays	Percentile	Good Plays	Errors/Bad
1,000,000	0.935	935,000	65,000
1,000,000	0.984	98,4000	16,000
1,000,000	0.9906	99,0600	9,400

The difference between 65,000 errors and 16,000 errors is massive and that’s just the gap between a college player and NFL prospect who might last three years in the league. The NFL vet who earns a second deal commits 42.3 percent fewer errors than the prospect ad 86.6 fewer errors than the college player. And I’m talking about the average player on a team, which includes the best and the worst players on each squad–forget about the stars!

Even these numbers are a little harder to grasp, because we’re looking at a million plays. We won’t see any player execute that many over the course of a career–as hard as Brett Favre, George Blanda and Bruce Matthews tried.

So let’s break it down to plays in a season. Let’s estimate a player sees 40 plays a game for 16 games. I know this isn’t completely accurate for the college game or certain players in the NFL. However, it’s a more understandable sample size of plays for a season that equates to 640 plays.

Now look at the differences in errors/bad plays–it’s a lot easier to grasp.

Player	Plays	Percentile	Good Plays	Errors
College	640	0.935	598.4	41.6
NFL Prospect	640	0.984	629.76	10.24
NFL Vet	640	0.9906	633.984	6.016

The difference between 10 and 6 egregious errors per season per player is staggering–and that’s the difference between a young NFL player and a veteran. Those 41.6 errors per season for the average college player just doesn’t cut it for the pro game. This chart hints at why NFL athleticism is a difference maker in the college game even if the NFL skill and understanding of football isn’t always present.

In contrast, the gap between a prospect and vet is much smaller from an athletic standpoint, but the differences in errors is still large based on knowledge of technique, strategy, and consistency of execution. Again, this is hypothesizing that we’re discussing the average player at each level.

Now think about the top four players on each team–Pro-Bowl caliber players–that’s 128 players in the NFL. These players are in the 99.88 percentile in all of football–high school, college, and NFL. Using a sample of 640 plays in a 16-game season they would commit .75 egregious errors.

This seems hard to believe. In fact, you can see where this theory begins to crack at the seams because even All-Pros make mistakes multiple times in a season. However, how many of them are solely their fault and not something that can be explained by the error of a teammate? Not as many as you might think.

I wouldn’t throw out this examination because the numbers aren’t exactly right. The point is still a good one: The gap in talent is about consistency of execution and it requires knowledge, skill, and focus as the gap in athleticism narrows.

For analysis of skill players in this year’s draft class, download the 2014 Rookie Scouting Portfolio. Better yet, if you’re a fantasy owner the 56-page Post-Draft Add-on comes with the 2012 – 2014 RSPs at no additional charge and available for download within a week after the NFL Draft. Best, yet, 10 percent of every sale is donated to Darkness to Light to combat sexual abuse. You can purchase past editions of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio for just $9.95 apiece.

Boiler Room: Florida State RB James Wilder

October 8, 2013 0 Comments read 2014 NFL Draft, Players, RSP Boiler Room Videos (Short Form), Running Back

Running backs are like motorcyclists, eventually they'll lay it down and have trouble walking away from it. Photo by Kyn_Chung. — Running backs are like motorcyclists, eventually they’ll lay it down and have trouble walking away from it. Photo by Kyn_Chung.

I remember James Wilder, Sr. A 6’3″, 225-pound wrecking ball where he had two seasons in Tampa Bay with a combined 772 carries for 2844 yards and 23 touchdowns, Wilder is the best running back in Buccaneers history if you ask me. One of those years, Wilder had 407 carries, 1544 yards rushing, 13 rushing touchdowns and 85 receptions for 685 yards for an 8.1 yards per catch average.

In case you didn’t do the math, that’s 492 touches for 2229 yards from scrimmage – that’s the 16th best yards from scrimmage total in the history of the NFL and the most touches by a player large margin:

NFL Single-Season Touches Leaders – Courtesy of Pro-Football-Reference.com

Rank	Player (age), + – HOFer, Bold – Active	Touch	Year	Teams
1.	James Wilder (26)	492	1984	TAM
2.	Larry Johnson (27)	457	2006	KAN
3.	Eddie George (27)	453	2000	TEN
4.	LaDainian Tomlinson (23)	451	2002	SDG
5.	Edgerrin James (22)	450	2000	IND
6.	Marcus Allen+ (25)	447	1985	RAI
7.	Ricky Williams (26)	442	2003	MIA
8.	Eric Dickerson+ (23)	441	1983	RAM
9.	Emmitt Smith+ (26)	439	1995	DAL
10.	Jamal Anderson (26)	437	1998	ATL
11.	Steven Jackson (23)	436	2006	STL
12.	Emmitt Smith+ (23)	432	1992	DAL
13.	Edgerrin James (21)	431	1999	IND
14.	Eric Dickerson+ (26)	430	1986	RAM
	Ricky Williams (25)	430	2002	MIA
	Gerald Riggs (25)	430	1985	ATL
17.	Walter Payton+ (30)	426	1984	CHI
	Barry Foster (24)	426	1992	PIT
19.	Eric Dickerson+ (28)	424	1988	IND
20.	Deuce McAllister (25)	420	2003	NOR

In addition to these season marks, Wilder once toted the ball a record 48 times in a single game (and 47 in another contest a year later – good for second on the all-time list). We’re talking about a tough football player in an era of running the football that we’re only given reminders of nowadays.

I think this is important to share, because if the Matthews family has a potential genetic predisposition for athletic longevity in a punishing sport; the Long family breeds linemen; the Manning family farms quarterbacks; and the Winslow family produces tight ends, then 6’1″, 229-pound James Wilder, Jr. has a chance to be a damn good pro running back. Wilder runs a lot like his dad, but there’s an added degree of recklessness that could be a double-edged sword for the young man with an old-school style and it leaves me conflicted about his future.

A series I started last spring at the RSP blog is The Boiler Room. One of the challenges involved with player analysis is to be succinct with delivering the goods. As the author of an annual tome, I’m often a spectacular failure in this respect.

Even so, I will study a prospect and see a play unfold that does a great job of encapsulating that player’s skills. When I witness these moments, I try to imagine if I would include this play as part of a cut-up of highlights for a draft show at a major network or if I was working for an NFL organization creating cut-ups for a personnel director. Unlike the No-Huddle Series, The Boiler Room is focused on prospects I expect to be drafted, and often before the fourth round.

It’s incredibly difficult to boil down any player with just one play. Yet, if I need a play to add to the highlight reel that will help a team make a decision where to slot Wilder, Jr. on its board, this is my nomination – not because it’s the most impressive play as much as it’s a telling indication of the player in terms of that double-edged sword. This is a run from a 20 personnel shotgun formation inside the Wake Forest red zone with 6:48 in the first half. The next 24 seconds, which includes a replay is a display of strength, agility, recklessness, and flexibility that leaves me ambivalent about Wilder, Jr.

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ULXz1le2tlU&?start=44w=560&h=315]

This hurdle of the defender is different from what you’ve seen from the likes of Brian Leonard, Knowshown Moreno, and LeGarrette Blount in recent years. Those three backs were known for these plays in the second and third levels of the defense. The hurdling these three backs demonstrated as collegians were prettier plays.

However, this hurdle from Wilder comes within two steps of turning down hill through the hole! While the Russian and Chinese judges would mark him down on form, they’d begrudgingly own him top marks on technical difficulty. This is a nine-yard gain with six coming after the hurdle.

What impresses me most on this play is what we see on the replay. Notice how flexible Wilder is in his legs and hips to rotate his lower body this dramatically. Then there’s the strength to maintain balance at this awkward of a landing point. This is a balls-out, reckless, and fearless run where one can see the old-school influence of watching his father.

However like his father – and most old-school runners – Wilder has admitted to playing with numbness in his shoulder after laying the wood on defenders. He has that “slap some dirt on it” mentality that teammates and coaches love as long as he can go out there and produce. Shoulder injuries and ball carrying go together like shrimp and grits, so I wouldn’t be alarmed about Wilder’s admission.

In the NFL and the NFL media’s hyper-analytic draft environment, medical reports might be a driver in Wilder’s draft stock. Just like Eddie Lacy’s stock fell at least two rounds further than anticipated at least due in part to a toe injury, Wilder’s shoulder may earn some extra scrutiny – especially aggravating the wound in September that hindered him throughout 2012.

Watch the play again and think about his disregard for his body. For a long, lanky, and punishing back, I can see some reasons for concern. At the same time, I love watching him at his best. Here’s a taste of Wilder in the second and third level of the Clemson defense – yes, this is highlight No.2, but I’m a sucker for punishing, determined runners.

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ULXz1le2tlU&?start=345w=560&h=315]

Again, note the balance and strength of his legs to take a hit that moves his body so his legs plant at an awkward position and he stays upright. While impressive, I just can’t shake the feeling that there’s too great of a tendency for awkward footing and landings that won’t end well. My younger brother, who is a licensed pilot will tell you than any landing you can walk away from is a good landing. However, I’m reminded more of the adage among motorcyclists: It’s not if you’ll lay the bike down, but when.

Running backs are in this respect like stunt bikers. Eventually they’re going to lay it down in a way that they’ll have trouble walking away from the crash. I love Wilder’s battering ram determination, flexibility, and balance. Especially his flexibility. Here’s highlight No.3.

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ULXz1le2tlU&?start=563w=560&h=315]

That’s a Reggie Bush-like extension without a long, downhill start and doing it while carrying an extra 20 pounds. I smile every time I watch Wilder as a lead blocker making diving plays to upend defenders for his quarterback or backfield teammates. He’s a tough football player. However, I don’t get the same feeling of reckless longevity when I watch Wilder the way I do when I watch Adrian Peterson or Walter Payton or even Wilder, Sr.

I hope I’m wrong.

For analysis of skill players in this year’s draft class, download the 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio.The 2014 RSP will available April 1 and if you pre-order before February 10, you get a 10 percent discount. Better yet, if you’re a fantasy owner the 56-page Post-Draft Add-on comes with the 2012 – 2014 RSPs at no additional charge and available for download within a week after the NFL Draft. Best, yet, 10 percent of every sale is donated to Darkness to Light to combat sexual abuse. You can purchase past editions of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio for just $9.95 apiece.

RSP Flashback: Rutgers RB Ray Rice

July 30, 2013 0 Comments read Matt Waldman

[youtube=http://youtu.be/7ksRKbr16hw]

One of the most common questions I get from new readers is What did you think about [insert player name here] before [NFL team] drafted him? For the next month, I’m posting scouting reports of some of my bigger hits and misses when it comes to the past eight years of evaluating rookies for the Rookie Scouting Portfolio. I’ll also include the lessons I learned – or am still learning – from the experience of evaluating these players.

Size Matters, But Technique Matters More

“Rice will be an every-down back in the NFL and potentially a Pro-Bowl Player”

– 2008 Rookie Scouting Portfolio

Ray Rice is one of my favorite current players in the NFL. That admiration goes back to his years at Rutgers. As a rule, I tend to watch numerous games of each player even if I only formally study a handful (2-4) contests with my evaluation system. What I remember about Rice is how well he handled a huge workload.

The 5-8, 199-pound junior just came off a 36-carry, 196-yard, 3-touchdown performance against Syracuse when he faced South Florida’s top-ranked defense that had good speed up front. This unit had not allowed 100 yards to a runner in over a year – including games against the likes of Auburn, UCF (Kevin Smith), and West Virginia (Steve Slaton). The last back to post 100 yards on the Bulls?

Ray Rice.

And after a 36-carry performance, the Scarlet Knights had no problem returning to the well in the fourth quarter of this tight game and riding its star runner for a total of 39 carries for 181 yards to earn a 30-27 victory. Rice didn’t score in this game, but he had 7 first downs and 8 broken tackles.

Rice, along with Adrian Peterson, Ricky Williams, Cedric Benson, Steven Jackson, and Ladainian Tomlinson, all debunk the workload myth. The player Rice reminded me of stylistically was Emmitt Smith. I described Rice as undersized, but a tough runner with vision who gets stronger as the game progresses.

Lesson Learned from Rice: What makes Rice this type of runner and differentiates him from many backs is his pad level. There are a lot of backs that have a low center of gravity with their size, but for their height they don’t have a running style that maximizes this physical advantage. It doesn’t matter to me whether a running back is 5-6 or 6-5, if he doesn’t learn how to maximize his center of gravity, he’s more likely to leave yards on the field and take more punishment than necessary.

This doesn’t mean a runner has to have his knees and hips bent and his pads low. I loved Edgerrin James’ game for his textbook pad level and insane ability to get lower than his opponents in situations most backs couldn’t duplicate. I saw James turn more two-yard runs into five-yard gains than any back I’ve watched in the past 20 years, but it’s obvious few backs run like James.

The most important facet of good pad level is awareness and timing. Fans and writers always list exceptions like Adrian Peterson, Eddie George, and Eric Dickerson. All three run high, but what’s missed is how they lower the pads at the right time.

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sK3c4GzN4pE&w=560&h=315]

What fans often miss with short runners is whether they truly run with a low center of gravity at the point of contact. They can be so preoccupied with trying to make a defender miss that the pads are too high, the knees aren’t churning, and they invite contact that drives them backwards.

Functional power is about leverage and there’s two things runners can do to maximize functional power: minimize surface area (low pad level, knees high, and feet high) and/or concentrate his power into a central spot (forearm or shoulders).

Rice doesn’t take his low center of gravity for granted. He maximizes his small surface area and combines it with burst and the skill to eliminate angles with sound press-and-cut technique as an interior runner.

This .PDF document – Ray Rice – contains two scouting reports on the runner I rated No.2 among backs in the 2008 Rookie Scouting Portfolio. This includes a loaded class of Rashard Mendenhall, Matt Forte, Felix Jones, Jamaal Charles, Darren McFadden, Steve Slaton, and Chris Johnson.

For analysis of skill players in this year’s draft class, download the 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio available now. Better yet, if you’re a fantasy owner the 56-page Post-Draft Add-on comes with the 2013 RSP at no additional charge and available for download within a week after the NFL Draft. Best, yet, 10 percent of every sale is donated to Darkness to Light to combat sexual abuse. You can purchase past editions of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio for just $9.95 apiece.

RSP Flashback: Marshawn Lynch and Adrian Peterson

July 18, 2013 0 Comments read Matt Waldman

One of the most common questions I get from new readers is What did you think about [insert player name here] before [NFL team] drafted him? For the next month, I’m going to post scouting reports of some of my bigger hits, misses, and lingering questions when it comes to the past eight years of evaluating rookies for the Rookie Scouting Portfolio. I’ll also include the lessons I learned – or am still learning – from the experience of evaluating these players.

It’s Possible To Mistake Long Speed for Stamina

“[Lynch] has the potential to be an excellent, all-purpose back in the NFL. He’d be excellent in a west coast system such as Seattle, Philly, or Green Bay.”

– 2007 Rookie Scouting Portfolio

“Raw talent alone, Peterson is one of the top two players in this entire draft. if he can be more disciplined as a runner – choices and ball protection – he as the type of rare power-speed-balance combos shared among the all-time great backs of the Brown-Dickerson-Campbell lineage.”

– 2007 Rookie Scouting Portfolio

Marshawn Lynch was my No.1 running back in the 2007 NFL Draft, including Adrian Peterson – by the smallest of margins. The reason was the polish in Lynch’s game versus the raw talent of Peterson’s. I hated making this call at the time because any fool could see how good Peterson could be.

What I learned from Peterson: I don’t think I have invoked as great a trio of runners to compare to one back’s ability before or since watching Peterson at Oklahoma. You can ask Mike MacGregor and Mike Krueger of FFToday.com about the time I made them sit through a taping of Peterson running like a wild horse against Haloti Ngata’s Oregon team. After a long day of meetings at Krueger’s loft in Kansas City, they weren’t that interested. I didn’t care; I was smitten with Peterson.

However, his two biggest issues – discipline with choices at the line of scrimmage and protecting the football – were problematic enough to put talented runners on the bench early in their careers. While I didn’t think either would endanger Peterson’s career – although fumbles were problematic – I made the mistake of thinking the sum of Lynch’s game earned a higher ranking than the totality of the Peterson experience.

[youtube=http://youtu.be/Nhr8oYBoiUI]

Classic over analysis.

What I learned from Lynch: Lynch’s versatility as a receiver and interior runner were appealing, but I misjudged his long speed. Even when I look at these highlights, I see that I mistook his stamina for quality, long-speed. There’s a difference. Lynch’s best game-breaking runs often come when he’s using the width of the field to weave through the defense while maintaining a pace and intensity that wears out the pursuit.

As we’ve seen, Lynch’s burst, skill after contact, and footwork make him a top-flight runner in the NFL. However, it’s his stamina on long runs that has helped him create one of the five most great and meaningful runs in the history of the NFL.

[youtube=http://youtu.be/W0URyxkeSZM]

It’s this stamina that is closely related to the trait Lynch displayed at Cal that is perhaps his most endearing to football fans: toughness. I watched numerous games where Lynch was a big part of the offense despite playing through injuries against top competition. The most memorable was a 25-touch, 109-yard performance against a 2006 USC defense that sent numerous players to the NFL.

Lynch carried the ball 20 times, successfully blocked 8 assignments, broke 6 tackles, earned 5 first downs, and caught all 5 targets while playing with 2 sprained ankles. He routinely gained 2-5 yards after contact in this game.

Peterson may have been a wild horse, but Lynch was a true workhorse. However if I had judged Lynch’s speed better and had more experience watching runners work past the same issues that plagued Peterson, I think Peterson would have remained in the top spot.

These .PDFs of Adrian Peterson and Marshawn Lynch are more game summaries than in-depth, play-by-play analysis – the RSP has evolved quite a bit since it’s inception. However, the checklists and information still give you a strong sense of what I saw from two of the best runners in the game today.

Reads Listens Views 7/12/2013

July 12, 2013 0 Comments read Reads Listens Views

Hanford Dixon and Frank Minnifield they may not be (yet), but Liskiewitz's choice of the Seahawks corner tandem is a smart nod. Photo by Football Schedule. — Brandon Browner is my type of player. Photo by Football Schedule.

Thank You

I got the idea for the Rookie Scouting Portfolio in 2003. I still have a journal filled with notes I took in longhand while watching Steven Jackson and Brandon Browner at Oregon State. I liked Browner for his physicality. The fact that he’s considered a relatively new contributor in the NFL is an amazing story that speaks a lot to his perseverance to take the hard road to get there.

I get it. A project like the RSP requires perseverance. Those who truly study film of draft prospects learn this in short order. You have to give up a lot to do what you love.

A lot of people don’t understand it. I’m living the dream to them. However, they’re dreaming if they think it’s like they imagine.

The cost of a living the dream is a high price tag of commitment to make something a career before it even has a glimmer of true hope to supply what people expect as the benefits. It’s long on work and short on free time, sleep, and it challenges your capacity for repetitive work.

It can take a physical and emotional toll. I’m not alone. This goes for guys like Josh Norris and Dane Brugler and West Bunting and Chad Reuter before them. I could go into detail, but it’s going to sound more and more like a woe as me tale and that’s not the intent.

I love what I do. I chose to do it. I’m paying the freight.

While I thank you for reading the blog and buying the Rookie Scouting Portfolio, the person who deserves the greatest thanks is my wife. She entered my life just after I had waded waste-deep into this commitment. She heard me tell her when we started dating that I’m about a quarter of the way into a career marathon that would mean a lifestyle where doing something as simple as spending free time together might require an organized appointment.

That’s a negative on the romance scale and she didn’t flinch.

She was willing to commit to me and this insane project. She’s flexible about when and how we spend time together. She has provided as many good ideas about what I do with the RSP as anyone. And she’s a beautiful soul who is direct, smart, funny, and one of the toughest people I know.

Thank you, Alicia – a big reason why more and more people are finally figuring out that the Rookie Scouting Portfolio is one of the best small investments of fantasy football/draftnik season is because you’ve persevered so I can continue to do the same.

Download the RSP not because of me getting sentimental, but because I believe in the next statement as much as anything in my life: You’ll immediately see that you got more than your money’s worth for the price you pay. In fact many of you will feel like you’re cheating me – about 2 in every 10 readers email me this sentiment.

Enough of that – time to share things that caught my eye on the Internet in recent weeks.

Listens

I want you to listen to the first 50 seconds of this video and see if you can remember how the melody sounds.

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=atZ8s75iU6E&w=560&h=315]

Now listen to the way these two greats take the same song and make it a new one. The song below is the same basic harmony as the one above, but these guys turn a Cole Porter standard “What Is This Thing Called Love” into a more passionate, earthier, down n’ dirty “Hot House” . . .

[youtube=http://youtu.be/EKiyq1VoAZs ]

To this day, this is still the definition of bad assery at its finest and why great Hip-Hop has its roots in Bebop. I’m sure if I had only five songs to listen to for the rest of my life, this version of “Hot House” would make the list.

Views

About 15 years ago I volunteered as a hospice worker for an Anglican Priest who lived in a trailer about 25 miles from Athens. He was a Korean War veteran. The blast of an exploding shell while on an air craft carrier temporarily blinded him and bought him a ticket back to the states.

While at a military hospital in Texas a few women from the nearby Indian reservation would volunteer to help the injured veterans. One of the volunteers began reading this man’s letters daily. They fell in love and he proposed before he ever had the bandages lifted from his eyes.

They were married over 40 years. They moved to Georgia, bought a big house, had two kids, and adopted 27 others during their lifetime. He managed a local hardware store and later an became the Anglican Priest he was when I met him. He had a large congregation and many people in the community came to him for advice.

His wife died after a long battle with cancer and when he was diagnosed a number of years later, he opted not to seek treatment. He had seven years of decent health before I met him. I cleaned for him, set up mouse traps for this small trailer he had moved to after the state government built a highway through his house, and made runs to pick up Kentucky Fried Chicken – his favorite. Most of all I listened to him tell stories about his life.

What was most memorable about my time with this man was that he had 29 kids, a community he gave so much to, and he thanked me – a 28-year-old at the time – for allowing him to tell me things he would never feel comfortable telling any of them. The reason was he was always the listener and adviser.

That was his role and he felt that no one around him knew how to give him the support all human beings need. I suspect he didn’t know how to receive support – much less ask it from those who saw him as a provider for most of his adult life. While this saddened me on some level, I was grateful that I could be there for another human being in this way.

So when I see the picture of this man in a hospital in his final days and the staff allowed him to spend time with his dog, it reminds me that bonds are not always predictable and it’s nice to see an organization recognize it – especially a place prone to bureaucratic entanglements like a hospital.

Views

[youtube=http://youtu.be/xPAat-T1uhE]

If you don’t have a daughter, this will make you think long and hard about how you see women. It’s also telling of how much hard work goes into being a truly great actor – emotional work and openness that the average person wouldn’t dare tread. Hat Tip to Jared Plotts in the 216 (if it is still 216).

Football Reads

Who’s really in charge? Power structures for all 32 teams – Albert Breer’s analysis of the decision-makers in the NFL.
Zone-Blocking Basics – E.C. Stoner delivers another strong piece on a technical aspect of the game that should enrich how you see running the football.
Fake Football Writing Contest Results – I got to judge the finals and there were some good pieces to read.
Why Trent Richardson’s 3.6-yard-per-carry average does not matter – A tasty dish from Chase Stuart at Football Perspective.

Non-Football Reads

Welcome to Hell: Philadelphia Has a Serious Case of Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder – If there is one article you read today, this month, or this year, Steve Volk’s piece that reveals how our cities have youth dealing with issues similar to our veterans and Rwandans is the one to read. It will take you about 20 minutes, but I implore you to do so.
King of the Hill Animation Help – I’m not a big fan of animated sitcoms. They have their moments, but I don’t get into them like my wife. However thanks to her, I am a converted die-hard fan of King of the Hill. This is a good PowerPoint for wannabe animators who worked on the show. Entertaining if you’re a King of the Hill buff – and I’ve seen on Twitter than many of you are.
BBC broadcast of Sylvia Path reading her poem “Tulips” – One of the most powerful voices in modern poetry reads one of her pieces. This is an edgy piece because of the juxtaposing imagery of passion and sterility. There’s a tone with her reading where I feel like I’m witnessing an animal that is tense and warning you it’s about to strike if you don’t retreat. H/T to Doug Farrar – yes, that Doug Farrar – for tweeting this the other day.
The Sound of Color – Colorblind artist Neil Harbisson is an intrepid “eyeborg” wearer. That’s a device that converts color into audible frequencies, meaning that Harbisson gets to hear a symphony of color, instead of seeing a world only in grayscale.
The Man Who Predicted Google Glass Forecasts The Near Feature – Physicist and award-winning sci-fi writer David Brinn shares some compelling thoughts.
Banana Peels Into Plastic? – You betcha. H/T to Gary Davenport – a writer I need to feature more here for his fantasy football work.
Goodwill’s Salaries Called Into Question – I love Goodwill’s concept. The execution might need some work.

Views

From the sublime to hilarious toilet humor . . .

[youtube=http://youtu.be/NySWcNT8Oe4]

H/T to my old friend Joe Mendez, who is one of the more well-read guys I know but also one of the least pretentious. Miss hanging with you.

RSO Writers’ League Team Profile: Ryan McDowell, DLF

July 10, 2013 0 Comments read Matt Waldman

Lots of Luck for Ryan McDowell's team - $103.5 million of him. But he also snagged some deals. Photo by Angie Six — Lots of Luck for Ryan McDowell’s team – $103.5 million of him. But he also snagged some deals. Photo by Angie Six

Once a month during the season, I’ll be writing about the Reality Sports Online Keeper Salary Cap League that I started with 13 other football writers. If you’re seeking a great GM experience that offers the complexities of realistic contract negotiations and salary cap ramifications in an easy-to-use league management system that does all the work for you, join an RSO league. Use the promotion code RSP20%OFF to earn a 20 percent discount.

Pre-draft strategy

Heading into this auction, I was a bit anxious, mainly about venturing to a new site. That was a bit out of my comfort zone, but the team at RSO could not have made that any easier. Following the tutorials they provided, I felt comfortable with the software and couldn’t wait to get started.

My usual plan with auctions is to target a few specific players at each position and go after them. I typically don’t study average auction values or even assign an estimated budget because auctions seem to each be so different. It is difficult to compare one to another and I think it is crucial to be able to make snap decisions as the value of players is adjusted based on when they are nominated and the remaining funds available to teams.

Entering this auction, what I focused most on was the limited use of long-term contracts. I knew I wanted to use my four-year deal and likely both of my three-year contracts on quarterbacks and wide receivers. I narrowed my list of targets down even further with the potential long-term deals in mind.

McDowell’s Team

Mike Glennon (TB) R

Matt Scott (JAC) R

Andrew Luck (IND) 4 years/$103.5 million

Ryan Tannehill (MIA) 2 years/$9 million

Ryan Mallett (NE) 1 year/$500,000

Giovani Bernard (CIN) R

Latavius Murray (OAK) R

Jason Snelling (ATL) R 1 year/$500,000

Chris Johnson (TEN) 1 year/$12 million

Stevan Ridley (NE) 2 years/$16 million

LaRod Stephens-Howling (PIT) 1 year/$500,000

Danario Alexander (SD) 1 year/$3.5 million

Stephen Hill (NYJ) 1 year/$1.5 million

Justin Blackmon (JAC) 2 years/$10.5 million

Nick Toon (NO) 1 year/$500,000

Josh Gordon (CLE) 3 years/$19 million

Jacoby Jones (BAL) 1 year/$500,000

James Jones (GB) 1 year/$7.5 million

Hakeem Nicks (NYG) 3 years/$54 million

Julian Edelman (NE) R

Rob Housler (ARI) 1 year/$6 million

Joel Dreessen (DEN) 1 year/$500,000

Virgil Green (DEN) 1 year/$500,000

Josh Brown (NYG) 1 year/$1.5 million

Mason Crosby (GB) 1 year/$500,000

Packers Defense 1 year/$500,000

Falcons Defense 1 year/$500,000

Raiders Defense 1 year/$500,000

Jordan Reed (WAS) R

Joel Dreessen (DEN) R

Virgil Green (DEN) R

Rob Housler (ARI)

Dennis Pitta (BAL)

Josh Brown (NYG)

Mason Crosby (GB) R

ATL Team Defense (ATL)

GB Team Defense (GB) R

OAK Team Defense (OAK) R

– See more at: http://www.realitysportsonline.com/Rosters.aspx#sthash.c38dg4Tn.dpuf

How did the auction unfold for you?

Would Gordon be the best receiver of the 2013 Draft class? Cleveland thinks so. Photo by Erik Daniel Drost. — I wanted Gordon, but was tentative with the first nomination while feeling out the process. McDowell capitalized. Photo by Erik Daniel Drost.

After nabbing the first nominated player, Browns wide receiver Josh Gordon on a three-year deal for $19 million, I began to experience some technical difficulty. I had to close the site and start again, which led to my draft board listing all available players to fail. While this was an inconvenience, it was a small hurdle. Next, I had trouble with my home internet, which ultimately led to me speeding across the street to my office in the middle of the auction.

Once I was setup there, it was not long until one of my top targets, Colts quarterback Andrew Luck was nominated. I was engaged in a bidding war and ultimately overpaid, but got my guy on a four-year deal. I recently stated that Luck might be the safest player to own in a dynasty league, so he is a great option to tag with the lone four-year contract.

Next, I chose to focus on grabbing some deals at running back. I knew with the rapid change from year to year at the position, I did not want to give long-term deals. My next three wins brought me Chris Johnson, Rashard Mendenhall and Stevan Ridley for a total of $31 million, including Ridley on a two-year deal (McDowell has since traded away Mendenhall to Matt Papson’s team for Dennis Pitta).

With some depth at running back, it was time to turn back to the wideouts and I grabbed Hakeem Nicks (3 years/$54 million), Justin Blackmon (2 years/$10.5 million) and James Jones (1 year/$7.5 million). I loved the balance of my team at this point and went on to add my defenses, kickers and young depth at each position. With the auction winding down and my team running out of money, I still had no tight end. I targeted a pair of the most hyped young tight ends of the off-season, Jordan Cameron and Rob Housler. After Bryan Fontaine pushed my limits on Cameron, I focused on Housler and severely overpaid, giving him a one year deal for $6 million.

Because I had acquired solid running back depth and did not feel comfortable with Housler as my starter, I later dealt Mendenhall in a package deal to acquire Ravens tight end Dennis Pitta, who should be a much more reliable option as my starting tight end.

Best Deals (Millions in years)

Josh Gordon (3 years/$19 million)
Stevan Ridley (2 years/$13 million)
Justin Blackmon (2 years/$10.5 million)

Worst (Millions in years)

Andrew Luck (4 years/$103.5 million)
Rob Housler (1 year/$6 million)

Good deals for other owners

Jeff Tefertiller's deal with RG3 has McDowell feeling some buyer's remorse with Luck. Photo by Mike Davis. — Jeff Tefertiller’s deal with RG3 has McDowell feeling some buyer’s remorse with Luck. Photo by Mike Davis.

(Lance Zierlein) Anquan Boldin (1 year/$4 million)- Boldin should be a solid starter in this format and came very cheap.
(Rivers McCown) Doug Martin (3 years/$67.5 million)- The Martin nomination came early and I think everyone was still feeling things out. Well done!
(Jeff Tefertiller) Robert Griffin III (3 years/$46 million)- This deal really makes me re-think my Luck contract.
(Sigmund Bloom) Martellus Bennett (1 year/$0.5 million)- Again, we all fell asleep at the wheel. This would have been a much better choice for me than Housler.

Questionable deals for owners (IMHO)

(Bryan Fontaine) Isaiah Pead (4 years/$7 million)- Giving a possible RBBC the only four-year deal is too risky for me. If it works out, Fontaine is getting a steal though.
(Jason Wood) Jared Cook (3 years/$5.5 million)= Again, Cook is too unproven and I would not want to give a mid-level tight end one of the valuable three-year deals.
(Lance Zierlein) TY Hilton (4 years/$26.5 million)- I really like Hilton, he just would not have been my choice to give the lone four-year contract.

Fave team other than mine

Jeff Tefertiller- Jeff was the talk of the auction early on as he threw out some big contracts early. Of course, that meant that he had to sit and wait for some deals at the end of the auction, but the end result looks good to me. He is loaded with studs at almost every starting position, including Brandon Marshall, Julio Jones, Ray Rice, Robert Griffin III, Pierre Garcon and Torrey Smith. Of course, Jeff will need to find a RB2 and a solid tight end, but in a fourteen team league, there will always be some holes.

Impressions of Reality Sports Online

As I mentioned, I had some early technical issues, but I think that is mostly due to my disappointing Time Warner internet service. The RSO software was smooth and easy to catch on to. It offered a service that I had never envisioned and challenged me to think on my feet, as I not only bid on the services of players, but assigned them contracts at the same time. I would certainly recommend other fantasy players to try out the RSO platform.

Short-term / Long-term View of Team

Stop me if you’ve heard this…but I really like my team for both the short-term and long-term. Although my team is filled with young players, I feel comfortable relying on most of those as starters for the 2013 season, including players like Luck, Gordon and Blackmon. At the same time, the youth of those players offers upside and promise for future success.

After the auction, I was really liking my depth at wide receiver, especially for a fourteen team league, and then Gordon and Blackmon were both suspended multiple games. As a result, the first two to four weeks will be a balancing act, but I still have Jones, Alexander and Nicks to lean on.

I am looking forward to the challenge of managing the contracts this time next year, as well as future seasons. It will be crucial to remain active and dedicated to the league in order to succeed.

RSO Monthly Update: Off Season Grinding

July 4, 2013 0 Comments read Matt Waldman

If you acquire Victor Cruz before he became a starter, you're probably a grinder. See below. Photo by Football Schedule. — If you acquired Victor Cruz before he became a starter, you’re probably a grinder. See below. Photo by Football Schedule.

Once a month, I’ll be writing about the Reality Sports Online Keeper Salary Cap League that I started with 13 other football writers. If you’re seeking a great GM experience that offers the complexities of realistic contract negotiations and salary cap ramifications in an easy-to-use league management system that does all the work for you, join an RSO league. Use the promotion code RSP20%OFF to earn a 20 percent discount.

When I was a kid nothing ruled my free time more than pickup games of football. The setting for those games was dictated by your age and neighborhood. When you’re a six year-old living in an apartment complex, it means your games are restricted to whatever kids you could round-up within a two-block radius of the complex.

At eight, your territory expanded to the entire complex and the adjoining neighborhood to include the friends you made at school. By the time you’re 12, your pool of competition and settings for games spanned a five-mile radius of your home.

If your family moved during your childhood, then you know that it adds another dynamic to neighborhood pickup games. I moved three times as a kid and always to an apartment complex, so I’m familiar with being the new guy.

As the new guy if you want to make friends fast you want to maintain that delicate balance of proving that you’re neither the chump nor the bully. Pickup football games were the best way to do it. The first thing I always tried to do before the game started was to show something before we picked teams.

The two easiest ways to heighten your neighborhood draft stock was the vertical game. I always made sure I brought a football with me to the game. Just before the group chose captains I either got someone to throw me a deep pass or I had someone go deep. Do one of those two things and your draft stock jumped from dead-last to at least the middle of the pack.

But the best way to skyrocket your neighborhood draft stock and scout much of your competition at the same time was to initiate a pre-game warm-up of ‘Gator’. If you’re not familiar with the name, you probably played the game. It was essentially a kick return drill. The object was to catch the ball and run through the field of players to the end zone.

As a kid who wore a size 10 shoe by the time he was 9, I was generally big enough to compete with guys 2-3 years older than me. I made sure I did one of three things: caught the kick and ran over someone; knocked the biggest guy down with a block where I had to outrun others to get there; or run through someone on the way to tackling the ball carrier.

The immediate goal wasn’t to try to show everyone you were the best guy on the field. You might not be and that was alright. You wanted everyone to know that you weren’t the chump of the group.

Likewise you always noted the guys who could catch, tackle, and break tackles. But I always tried to spot the kid with the grinder mentality. There was always at least one kid in every neighborhood game who did the little things that made a team good that most didn’t notice. Having one or two stars was important, but you needed quality, capable worker bees to build a winning team.

Alfred Morris, the Grinder's grinder. Photo by Keith Allison. — Alfred Morris, the Grinder’s grinder. Photo by Keith Allison.

You can see the same elements at play with fantasy football owners. While I competed with all-star fantasy writers like David Dodds, Sigmund Bloom, Gregg Rosenthal, Scott Pianowski, and Bob Harris while writing for FFToday.com, becoming part of Footballguys staff in 2009 was like expanding the neighborhood territory for more pickup games.

Invitations to re-draft, dynasty, and IDP leagues came from all directions – especially from Footballguys staff. And this is one of those neighborhoods with a concentration of all-stars in their own right. Bob Henry, Jason Wood, John Norton, and Maurile Tremblay are just a few of the names I could mention.

However, there were Footballguys not as well-known to me at the time, but they had plenty of game. There are about six I want to mention, but two at the top of the list are Aaron Rudnicki and Jeff Tefertiller. “Ruds” couldn’t make the draft date of the RSO league start-up, but you best believe that until he quits playing fantasy football I’m sending him an invitation to compete in any league I ever run because he’s adept at IDP, re-draft, and dynasty formats and he’s a master pick-sniper on draft day.

Tefertiller isn’t an IDP guy, but I enjoy competing with him because he’s a grinder. In dynasty formats, off-season grinding can build you a winner. Here’s a list of players I’ve added – and sadly, sometimes dropped – while doing the off-season grinding on the waiver wire to enhance the back-end of my dynasty rosters:

Victor Cruz
Alfred Morris
Dennis Pitta
Lance Moore
Brandon Lloyd
Chris Ivory
Andre Brown
Brian Hartline
LaGarrette Blount
Greg Hardy
Vontaze Burfict
Dannell Ellerbe
Thomas DeCoud

Tefertiller is one of the more active dynasty grinders I compete against. So it came as no surprise he’s the most active owner on the RSO waiver wire during the slowest months of the football year and only a month removed from our free agent auction.

Not including RSO co-founder Matt Papson, who took over a team where the original owner had to abandon the auction half way through the process and has made seven transactions and numerous trades since late-May to salvage this team, Tefertiller and I have been the most active off-season grinders, but I only have four transactions to Tefertiller’s 14.

Here’s Tefertiller’s roster with the added players in bold:

Quarterback	Running Back	Wide Receiver
Zac Dysert (DEN) R	Lance Dunbar (DAL) R	DeAndre Hopkins (HOU) R
Brock Osweiler (DEN) R	Michael Turner (ATL)	Jarrett Boykin (GB) R
Robert Griffin III (WAS)	Cedric Benson (GB) R	Deonte Thompson (BAL) R
Shaun Hill (DET) R	Ray Rice (BAL)	Terrance Williams (DAL) R
Kyle Orton (DAL) R	Beanie Wells (ARI) R	Patrick Edwards (DET) R
		Josh Boyce (NE) R
		Brandon Marshall (CHI)
		Pierre Garcon (WAS)
		Julio Jones (ATL)
		Torrey Smith (BAL)

Tight End	Kicker	Defense
Chris Gragg (BUF) R	Shayne Graham (CLE) R	CIN Team Defense (CIN) R
Jeff Cumberland (NYJ) R	Garrett Hartley (NO)	SD Team Defense (SD)
Marcedes Lewis (JAC)		NYG Team Defense (NYG) R
Delanie Walker (TEN) R		JAC Team Defense (JAC) R

Tefertiller has also cycled through this list of players:

Chiefs QB Tyler Bray
Packers QB B.J. Coleman
Packers QB Graham Harrell
Saints RB Travis Cadet
Jets RB Joe McKnight
Browns WR Travis Benjamin

If you pay attention to OTA news then you can see the pattern with the players added and dropped from his roster. It should also be obvious to you that Tefertiller has a good crew of receivers, an RB1 in Ray Rice, and a potential superstar in Robert Griffin. This team may have a hole at RB2 and lack a quality backup at QB, but he has also built this roster to have room to fill these holes through free agency and trades as the preseason heats up.

Cumberland is a serviceable addition at tight end and Thompson, Dunbar, and Boykin all are an injury away from getting a chance to prove themselves as at least rotational contributors. While some owners may have chosen to spend more energy acquiring running backs at this point, wide receiver is the most liquid of positions to trade and he’s building on his strength so he can use this position as a bargaining chip rather than attempting to win the lottery with an unknown back.

Beanie Wells, Michael Turner, or Cedric Benson may not see an NFL field this year, but at this point it’s worth holding onto them to see if a team acquires their services when a starter gets hurt. NFL roster management accounts for finances so backups on a depth chart might be the No.2 or No.3 back in name, but some may only hold those roles because they are cheaper and have growth potential.

Greg Hardy is waiver wire fodder turned double-digit sack monster. Photo by Parker Anderson.

However, a team that sees its starter lost for the season due to injury may decide that a one-year deal at a larger salary for an established veteran is a better option than what’s on the depth chart – especially when these three players have sat at home long enough for it to sink in that a multi-year deal with a guaranteed starting role is a thing of the past.

Quarterback	Yrs	$	Running Back	Yrs	$	Wide Receiver	Yrs	$
Jay Cutler (CHI)	1	4.0	Arian Foster (HOU)	2	51.0	Calvin Johnson (DET)	2	69.5
Carson Palmer (ARI) R	1	3.0	Steven Jackson (ATL)	1	16.5	Cecil Shorts (JAC)	4	18.5
Alex Smith (KC) R	2	2.5	Ryan Williams (ARI) R	1	2.5	DeSean Jackson (PHI)	3	10.5
Sean Renfree (ATL) R	3	R	Ben Tate (HOU) R	3	7.5	Keenan Allen (SD)	3	R
			Alex Green (GB) R	1	0.5	LaVon Brazill (IND) R	1	0.5
			Shaun Draughn (KC) R	1	0.5	Marvin Jones (CIN) R	1	1.0
			Miguel Maysonet (CLE) R	1	0.5	Domenik Hixon (CAR) R	1	0.5
			Bobby Rainey (BAL)	1	0.5	Earl Bennett (CHI) R	1	0.5
						Marquess Wilson (CHI) R	3	R
						Da’Rick Rogers (BUF) R	3	R
						Kenbrell Thompkins (NE) R	1	0.5

Tight End	Yrs	$	Kicker	Yrs	$	Defense	Yrs	$
Vernon Davis (SF)	1	8	Sebastian Janikowski (OAK)	1	0.5	Seattle	1	3
Dwayne Allen (IND) R	1	2.5	Robbie Gould (CHI) R	1	0.5
Luke Willson (SEA) R	3	R
Julius Thomas (DEN)	1	0.5
Zach Sudfeld (NE) R	1	0.1

Like Tefertiller, I continued to add to a strength by acquiring Julius Thomas and Zach Sudfeld after hearing good news from OTAs. If I hit on three tight ends from this group of five, I have bargaining chips to trade for picks, cap room, or depth. In addition to this pair of tight ends, I dropped Cedric Peerman for Miguel Maysonet just until we learn more about the Cleveland depth chart and Richardson’s shin issues.

I also dropped Bobby Rainey today and added Travis Benjamin, who has a good shot to start two games to begin the year. The move also might afford me time to sit on LaVon Brazill to see if he can keep his roster spot as a Colt or find a job elsewhere.

I also traded away Alex Smith to Papson for a third-round pick last month. Cutler and Palmer are enough depth to pull the trigger to give away a player I never meant to acquire.

None of this grinding may help either Tefertiller or my team – in fact, there’s a chance we dropped players who might have helped us more – but I don’t believe it. I think the consistent tinkering and movement of the bottom end of a roster lends credence to that idea that part of skill is creating your own good luck.

Try RSO for your next league. Use the promotion code RSP20%OFF to earn a 20 percent discount.

2013 1st Round Draft Thoughts and Links

April 26, 2013 0 Comments read Matt Waldman

The attitude towards the term "project" is often a glass half-full/half-empty proposition. Which one is Manuel? See below. Photo by D Wilkinson. — The attitude towards the term “project” is often a glass half-full/half-empty proposition. The Bills are optimistic. See below. Photo by D Wilkinson.

Looking for a little preview of my 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio Pre-Draft Rankings? The New York Times is posting the RSP top-five at each skill position.

Quarterbacks
Running Backs
Wide Receivers
Tight Ends (Posted soon)

There will likely be a cluster of quarterbacks and receivers leaving the board in the second and third round who have just as much if not more of an impact that the first-round talent. I think the same will happen with running backs and tight ends in rounds 3-5 and it will be important to analyze team fit in terms of prospect talent, depth chart talent, and scheme.

Remember, when you purchase the RSP you also get the Post-Draft Addendum with revised fantasy rankings across all positions, preliminary ADP data, and player-team fit analysis. With a draft like this where we didn’t see a lot of skill players go off the board in the first round, the more you know about these guys the better.

Download the 2013 RSP today and when I announce the post-draft add-on is ready you enter your login and password to download it as well.

First-Round Thoughts – You can find links to analysis of a majority of these players here.

1. Kansas City- Left Tackle Eric Fisher: Fisher’s athleticism makes him a slam dunk here. While Joeckel is an excellent player in his own right, Fisher’s ability to pull and the similarities to former Chippewa and Niner tackle extraordinaire Joe Staley made it too difficult for Andy Reid to resist. Remember, Reid loves the screen play and and Jamaal Charles, Dwayne Bowe, Dexter McCluster, and Devon Wylie are the type of players with run after the catch skills who will also benefit from a tackle who can work the flats.

2. Jacksonville – Tackle Luke Joeckel: Will he play left or right with Eugene Monroe there? Doug Farrar thinks Joeckel is a better right tackle in terms of athletic match. What I can tell you is that the Jaguars have had their share of ailments at the line of scrimmage and it’s always good to have redundancy at one of the more important positions on offense. There’s still time for Jacksonville to grab a quarterback if they want to make this a three-horse race between a rookie, Blaine Gabbert, and Chad Henne. Personally, I think they would be wise to give Gabbert one more year, but he better shake the “Blame” Gabbert label quick.

3. Miami (trade with Oakland) – Outside Linebacker Dion Jordan: Cameron Wake opposite Jordan, but Jon Gruden brings up an interesting point in terms of Jordan playing a rotation at Oregon and whether he’ll be good for four quarters of NFL football. I’m not too worried about Jordan’s conditioning as much as how he’ll fit into a new defense. He also strikes me as more of a “clean-up” playmaker than the instigator. On a team with Cameron Wake on the opposite side, that’s not a bad thing, but if Jordan had to be that primary guy I’d be more worried. It’s a fine pick and a risk worth taking because of the Aldon Smith upside.

4. Philadelphia – Left Tackle Lane Johnson: A former college quarterback-tight end-right tackle who is now drafted as a left tackle. You need an athlete for up-tempo football and he can play either side. Johnson will bolster the running game and hopefully transition smooth enough to give Mike Vick fewer breakdowns. Of course, Vick has to improve his presnap calls and Johnson has to get used to playing with a mobile quarterback who can be out of control at the wrong times.

5. Detroit – Defensive End Ezekial Ansah: Great athlete who, like Jordan, cleans up better than he starts action. He’s inexperienced compared to even most prospects. Detroit loves his effort and I think this is Jim Washburn lobbying Jim Schwartz for another chance to find a Jason Pierre-Paul. Hopefully there is a fast learning curve or Willie Young takes a huge step forward – he was a second-round pick, you’d think he’s capable. Of course the bills made DT John McCargo a first-round pick and he’s done zilch.

6. Cleveland – Outside linebacker/Defensive End Barkevious Mingo: Mingo’s upside is worth the risk. I think OLB is an easier transition than to DE and he was an LB in high school. Mingo is a misunderstood prospect in terms of his diminished production last year. He was asked to contain the quarterback rather than attack and this meant bull-rushing 300-pound linemen. For a player his size to do this effectively – and he did – takes excellent strength and quickness. First-round pick D.J. Fluker didn’t look all that good against the “raw” Mingo. Cleveland got a potential impact player once this kid refines 1-2 moves that he already has in his toolbox.

7. Arizona – Guard Jonathan Cooper: One of the safer picks in the draft. Unbelievably quick and his ability to pull not only helps the running game, but play action. Remember, the best play action passes often come with a pulling guard. It’s not always how convincing the quarterback’s fake or the threat of the specific runner as much as it is the fear of the guard. The threat of Cooper will fool a lot of defenders in this league and buy Carson Palmer and Larry Fitzgerald more time. People can make fun of Palmer’s lack of mobility all they want, but he’s far more nimble than many have characterized on TV. Regardless of mobility, Palmer still throws a great deep ball and has three players capable of working down field with the benefit of play action. Cooper will help buy time. If the tackles play a little better, I’d give a bump to Palmer, Fitzgerald, Michael Floyd, and Andre Roberts. There’s some nice material for this passing game to click and this team will need to throw the ball a lot.

8. St. Louis (trade with Buffalo) – Wide Receiver Tavon Austin: If Austin is misused, he’ll look like Dexter McCluster pre-Andy Reid days. If his talents are maximized, Darren Sproles and Wes Welker come to mind. Austin is not as talented as either in their specific skills as runners and receivers, but he’s a good mix of both and that means he could be one of the more productivity rookies this year.

9. NY Jets – Cornerback Dee Milliner: I said I’d be surprised (December 1) if he wasn’t a top-10 pick. Miller’s ability to play the receiver and the ball in tight coverage is excellent. He may not catch a lot of passes, but he knows how to jar it loose and get the angle to knock it away. That’s more important that the interception. He’s also a terrific run defender. The Jets may miss Darrelle Revis, but if Milliner plays like he did at Alabama only your less enlightened New York fans will be bashing Milliner a few years from now.

10. Tennessee – Guard Chance Warmack: Warmack bolsters a Titans line and the hope is to give Chris Johnson and dare I say, Shonn Greene more room to roam. If you ask me, they should take another running back. Spencer Ware could beat Greene in his sleep and make a great complement to Johnson, but I don’t think the front office would like to be embarrassed for its misstep on free agent runners so don’t count on it. Then again, if they were foolish enough to take Greene, perhaps they lack the awareness to avoid a better back they can get in rounds 5-7.

11. San Diego – Tackle D.J. Fluker: Safe pick who can play tackle or guard, but I wonder if this is a “play not to lose” pick. Fluker is that kind of guy that teams say “if he doesn’t work at tackle, we at least have a guard.” That’s not how I want to feel about a first-round pick. Cleveland did that with tackle Jason Pinkston two years ago, but the budding stud at guard was a fifth-round pick.

12. Oakland – Cornerback D.J. Hayden: A good player versus the pass. But when the largest artery in your body attached to your heart looks like wet toilet tissue in the operating room and you’re seconds from death, it’s hard to believe the Raiders would be this confident to take Hayden this early. I like their confidence, but for an organization with a track record of taking great athletes with high risk thresholds fans have to be somewhat concerned. If it pays off, he’ll be just what this team needs because its cornerback depth chart is unproven, at best.

13. NY Jets – Defensive Tackle Sheldon Richardson Excellent athlete, but is he a three-technique? What does this mean for the future of the defensive scheme and use of current personnel like Coples?

14. Carolina – Defensive Tackle Star Lotulelei: I think he’s capable of being the best player in this draft. I have a feeling the heart condition scared off all these steak-eating, heart medicine-taking football decision-makers in their 50s and 60s who considered the Utah defensive tackle early. There’s concern he wears down late in games but nobody plays 91.5 percent of the season’s snaps and doesn’t wear down. That’s an insane amount of snaps for a big man. He anticipates the snap better than any defensive tackle in this draft and I think his pass rushing will be better than people characterize once he’s on a rotation that doesn’t ask him to play as much as he did out west. If Jon Beason, Luke Kuechley, and Thomas Davis stay healthy, the Panthers may compete for a playoff spot in 2013.

15 Saints – Safety Kenny Vacarro: A physical, aggressive, athletic tone-setter, Vaccaro is one of my three must-have players along with Lotulelei and Fisher. He should grow into a fine player and be capable of covering slot receivers and tight ends.

16 Bills – QB E.J. Manuel: See this link for more on Manuel. It is fascinating that Marrone took Manuel over Nassib – the quarterback Greg Cosell, Russ Lande, and Jon Gruden thought was the best pro-ready passer. Manuel’s accuracy needs work, but it’s more a conceptual than technical issue. I’m not even sure you call it a flaw as much as inexperience. We’ll see if Todd McShay’s “slow eyes” assertion will be an issue. I thought Manuel read the field well and learned fast from his mistakes. He’ll make some foolish plays, but I don’t think they’ll be the same type over and over. What they’ll be able to do with Manuel and the running backs will also be something to watch. What I do worry about is the lack of a deep threat in Buffalo. Steve Johnson is a fine player, but not a classic field stretcher. They need one and I think that will be addressed in this draft – perhaps one of the next two picks.

17 Pittsburgh – LB Jarvis Jones: This makes as much sense as peanut better and jelly on toasted bread.

18 San Francisco – Eric Reid, Safety: Reid replaces Dashon Goldson. A good player who has room to get better and should do so on a defensive unit this good.

19 Giants – Guard Justin Pugh: Honestly, I don’t know much about him.

20 Chicago – Guard/OT Kyle Long: See above.

21 Cincinnati – Tight End Tyler Eifert: Joe Goodberry says Jermaine Gresham’s contract ends after 2014. Eifert has enough skill as a blocker to develop into a decent replacement with more consistent hands and routes than Gresham. I like the pick because Gresham will be the guy on the line of scrimmage and Eifert can play the Y tight end who moves around and presents problems for defenses in 12 personnel sets. This should help the run and pass game and the Bengals struggled on the ground. Of course, I don’t think they know their running back talent and that might be part of th problem, too.

22 Atlanta – Cornerback Desmond Trufant: Trufant fits the mold of a first-round corner: athletic, aggressive, and confident. He was also battle-tested due to a sub par defensive unit and perhaps the Falcons liked this about him as well. They know he’ll continue battling and not go into a shell when he gets beat.

23 Minnesota – Defensive Tackle Sharrif Floyd: Minnesota has some success developing linemen so I think it’s a good fit for Floyd, who has the potential to become an excellent 4-3 defensive tackle. The pad level has to get better, but this was a good place to take Floyd – rather than the top of the first round.

24. Indianapolis Defensive End/OLB Bjoern Werner: I like Werner as an outside linebacker/elephant-type Terrell Suggs prospect. The quickness and awareness at the line of scrimmage are good enough that I think Werner projects better here than a traditional defensive end.

25. Minnesota – Cornerback Xavier Rhodes: I love this pick because Rhodes has a chance to become a shut-down corner. He has the most athletic upside of the corners in this class. I’ll say this, if the Vikings can get good quarterback play, they have the talent to contend in the NFC North. They are trying their best not to waste the talents of Adrian Peterson and I applaud them for being aggressive. See below.

26. Green Bay – Defensive End Datone Jones: A tough, aggressive defensive end who held his own against Eric Fisher and should bolster this Packers unit.

27. Houston – Wide Receiver DeAndre Hopkins: I think Hopkins was the safest receiver in this draft and the most likely to help the Texans now and develop into a primary option once Andre Johnson leaves. Hopkins is quick, physical, and reliable. He’ll exploit single coverage and should see plenty of it. If the Texans continue to use a run-heavy offense with a play action component, Hopkins will also get deep the way Hakeem Nicks can. It’s early, but one of my favorite skill position picks in this draft.

28.Denver – Defensive Tackle Sylvester Williams: Quick first step. I’ll let Cecil Lammey tell you about it next Thursday.

29. Minnesota (trade w/New England) – Playmaker Cordarrelle Patterson: Patterson can return kicks, punts, work from the backfield, and catch passes. He’s a much better pass catcher than some characterize because his drops are not about issues with his hands, but issues of looking the ball into his body before he tries to run. It’s an obvious flaw for a player who might be the best run after the catch player I have seen in college football. This will scare football fans my age, but physically he reminds me a little of Michael Westbrook as a runner – strong agile, fast, and elusive. If he loves football more than Westbrook, he could be a player similar to Dez Bryant but perhaps even better with the ball in his hands and more versatile. I love this kind of move because the Vikings need help now and Patterson may not help immediately as a receiver the way Hopkins could have, the team should be smart enough to find ways to use Patterson in the offense and get big plays.

30 St. Louis – Linebacker Alec Ogletree: The Georgia linebacker will play outside in this scheme and his combination of athleticism and skill as a former safety make him a player that reminds me of former Jeff Fisher linebacker Keith Bullock. Ogletree lacks that refined skill, but I see why the Rams took him.

For analysis of skill players in this year’s draft class, download the 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio available now. Better yet, if you’re a fantasy owner the 56-page Post-Draft Add-on comes with the 2013 RSP at no additional charge. Best, yet, 10 percent of every sale is donated to Darkness to Light to combat sexual abuse. You can purchase past editions of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio for just $9.95 apiece.

Boiler Room: Michigan State RB Le’Veon Bell

April 22, 2013 0 Comments read Players, Reads Listens Views, RSP Boiler Room Videos (Short Form), Running Back

This piece on Bell is unlikely to convince you to change your opinion of him, but it does underscore why teams will be forced to make a decision and stand by it. Photo by Matt Radickal.

A polarizing player in the draft community engenders endless debate – even after we see that player on an NFL field. If he succeeds his backers believe that the detractors over analyzed the situation. If the prospect struggles the naysayers will claim the backers didn’t see enough. In this sense Le’Veon Bell is a polarizing player in this draft.

The Boiler Room series is designed to be succinct with delivering the goods about a player. As the author of an annual tome, I’m often a spectacular failure in this respect.

It’s incredibly difficult to boil down any player with just one play – especially when a player invokes a major difference of opinion. Yet, if I need a play to add to the highlight reel that will help a team make a decision where to slot Le’Veon Bell on its board, I have a nomination – in this case, I have three. These plays demonstrate Bell’s, strength, burst, quickness, and agility – but do they show enough to settle the debate about Bell’s quickness?

This run against Minnesota is a beautiful combination of moves that rival any Madden video game replay.

[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jyflNp4qTO8?start=27rel=0&w=560&h=315]

Bell slides inside the double team from his tackle and tight end and takes two steps to set up a spin move inside a block at the hash, and then a step and plant to spin outside. I doubt Bell will be able to replicate this play again in his career, because I think it’s a product of his ability, the play, and the defense, but he is the first back I’ve seen execute a combo of inside and outside spins in this proximity of each other in quite a while and that counts for something.

Comment on the size of the hole, the blocking, and the defense all you want, but Bell’s spins were tight, quick, and balanced. He also kept his footing to gained 10 yards after the second spin. If Bell can demonstrate this kind of skill in the NFL, he’ll be a lead back whose only limitations will be his development in the passing game.

Bell’s supporters point to a powerful, 6’1″,230-lb. runner who has the frame to rival Ronnie Brown, but detractors see him as a sluggish player who only does good work through wide creases so he can build momentum and bully defenders after contact. The play above began with a wide crease. So does this one below.

[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ceZo8Vf7fnc?start=12rel=0&w=560&h=315]

The reads on this gap style play were straight forward and the blocking opened a huge backside crease to the inside, which Bell hits hard and gets down hill. I like the burst I see here, but his detractors may say the acceleration is deceptive due to the width of the hole.

Those who believe in Combine measurements will say that Bell’s 6.75-second, three-cone time was faster than Doug Martin and Stevan Ridley and the same as Jahvid Best, a back 31 pounds lighter. If LaGarrette Blount could pass protect and be a good citizen, there might not have been a need for a running back in Tampa Bay last year and Blount had much slower agility times than Bell. I thought Blount was quick enough. I haven’t seen anything to dissuade me about Bell’s athleticism.

I think the most balanced criticism I’ve heard is that Bell makes too many decisions like a scat back. They say if Bell can mature enough to temper his use of spin moves, hurdles, and reversals of field and only use them as a change-up to a powerful, downhill style, he has a chance to become a valuable starter.

This play below is a good demonstration of the power Bell flashes when he keeps it simple.

[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ceZo8Vf7fnc?start=55rel=0&w=560&h=315]

Good blocking to the edge, but Bell is fast enough to exploit it and also strong enough to push the pile for extra yards. The pad level and leg drive are positives here. If Bell can show more often when and when not to use the skills you’ve seen from all three highlights, then he’ll have a productive NFL career.

These plays won’t settle any debates. If you believe these plays are a product of his line and inferior competition then you won’t view Bell as one of the better running back prospects in this draft. If you believe Bell will have the quickness to execute these plays consistently in the NFL then you think the Spartans runner is an underrated commodity who belongs near the top-tier of runners.

Futures: Why Scouting Gets a Bum Rap – A Front Office Overhaul

April 17, 2013 0 Comments read Matt Waldman

It's time to take front offices to the Wood Shed. No beatings though. Photo by Richard Elzey. — It’s time to take front offices to the wood shed. No beatings though. Photo by Richard Elzey.

Scouting gets a bum rap.

“Of course Waldman would say this,” you proclaim. “He’s a scout!”

I may perform the fundamental role of one, but I am not a scout. This elicits laughter from my friend Ryan Riddle. The Bleacher Report columnist who holds Cal’s single season sack record and played with the Raiders, Ravens, and Jets says I have a misplaced sense of honor when it comes to refusing to wear that label.

I prefer talent evaluator, tape watcher, tapehound, or tapehead. My friends – if I have any left since I started doing this work eight years ago – might say ‘Film Hermit’ is the best fit. I’ve never worked for an NFL team, so these names seem more suitable to me. Scouts have responsibilities that I don’t – among them is reporting to management within a company structure.

If you have the chance to learn about the pre-draft process for most NFL teams, scouting is the study of a player’s positive and negative characteristics. It’s also an evaluation of how easy it is to fix the player’s issues and his potential fit within a team system. But based on what former scouts, coaches, and general managers of NFL teams say about the machinations that go into a team’s draft, I am thankful that I am not a scout.

While fans and writers may take the lazy route and blame picks gone wrong on poor scouting, it’s the general manager, coach, and owner who hold the weight of the decision-making power. This is a huge reason why scouting gets a bum rap.

To take it a step further, I’ll advance the popular Bill Parcells analogy of ‘buying the groceries.’ I can spend months in the grocery store and tell you that it has quality cuts of grass-fed steak; a delicious, rosemary batard baked in-house; and every variety of apple found in North America. But if those holding the wallet or cooking the food demand a papaya, I can tell them until I’m blue in the face that if they want a good one, it’s only found in Jamaica and they’re still going to pick an unripe one, take it home, prepare it, and then watch it spoil the meal.

It doesn’t help matters when I have to read Mike Tanier describe draft analysis as a pseudoscience. He’s right for the wrong reasons. Scouting is a craft, not a science. However, teams haven’t made it the same priority to address opportunities to improve scouting the way they have upgraded technology and embraced other forms of analysis.

With all the advances that the NFL has made with equipment, strategy, cap management, and technology, they haven’t done enough to advance the process of talent evaluation. It shouldn’t the sports equivalent of Madam Zora’s, but until teams address the problems, Tanier gets to write entertaining draft pieces at their expense.

I think there is a lot that teams can do to improve their talent evaluation processes. What I will propose here are things I’ve learned from my experience in operations and process improvement. I base my solutions on problems I’ve gleaned in conversations with former scouts, reading and listening to former NFL general managers talk about their past roles, and extensive study of college prospects for the past eight years.

Some of these ideas may be new to the NFL, but I don’t begin to think they are revolutionary in the scope of other industries. I’m sharing these things because it’s too easy to listen to a gray-haired man in a suit on a television network and take what he says as gospel – especially processes that are in fact fundamentally flawed and then perpetuated from generation to generation of football men.

When viewing NFL front offices and how they cope with change, I get the impression that many of them have a buttoned-up, low-risk culture similar in dynamic to Wall Street. It also takes a lot for newer ideas to take hold in an NFL front office as it does for an investment bank to accept “new blood” from a business school lacking a history of established connections with the firm as a personnel pipeline.

Some of what I’ll suggest is not even about new ideas; just better implementation of old concepts. The first point below is a good example where leaders tend to talk the talk better than they walk it.

Read the rest at Football Outsiders.

NFL Single-Season Touches Leaders – Courtesy of Pro-Football-Reference.com

Size Matters, But Technique Matters More

It’s Possible To Mistake Long Speed for Stamina

Tight End

Yrs

$

Kicker

Yrs

$

Defense

Yrs

$