Posts tagged Matt Waldman RSP

10 Defensive Rookies I’m Monitoring In August

Mathieu has a chance to be one of the impact performers as a safety/corner hybrid. Photo by wxcasterphx.
Mathieu has a chance to be one of the impact performers as a safety/corner hybrid. Photo by wxcasterphx.

The RSP blog spends an inordinate amount of time on offensive players, but don’t think for a hot second that I’m not monitoring defensive players. Not all of these rookies may be headliners, but they are prospects I’m watching closely this summer. In 2-3 years, you can bet at least half of these guys will be starters for their teams. As with the other lists, there’s no order to these guys or criteria – simply players who interest me for a variety of reasons.

Safety Tyrann Mathieu, Cardinals: Instinctive, intuitive, smart, however you want to put it, I’m a fan of players who not only understand their role, but they understand the broader context of the game and can incorporate this knowledge into their play. It’s a sign of a player with an integrated skill set. Mathieu is capable of playing nickel corner, safety, and returning punts. Beyond the concerns about Mathieu’s off-field battle with drugs, some analysts are concerned that Arizona’s rookie isn’t big enough to play safety or fast enough to play the nickel role. it sounds a lot like concerns many fans and analysts had about smaller receivers before the slot became an integral part of so many offensive game plans.  Just as move tight ends and slot receivers represent part of the hybrid revolution in the NFL, I think that third safety/corner role is a natural part of this change. Charles Woodson’s single coverage  shutdown of Percy Harvin in the slot on Monday Night Football a few years ago is a a good precursor of that safety/corner hybrid that Mathieu might become. I think Mathieu is more of a rover than a stick-and-cover guy, but he’s a smart, athletic, play-making defender impressing thus far.

Defensive End Devin Taylor, Detroit: Taylor earned some first-team reps in Lions’ training camp this weekend due to injuries of players ahead of him on the depth chart, and he flashed some skill. Taylor is best-known among draftniks as the end who succeeded Melvin Ingram as the guy opposite Jadeveon Clowney at South Carolina. Taylor had moments during his Gamecock career where he looked like a potential star, but never pieced enough of those plays together to generate this kind of promise in the eyes of scouts. They saw a big, strong, and quick end who wasn’t a smooth athlete. What I want to see is if this reported stiffness is actually a more awkward or unique way of moving around that might actually help him be a little more unpredictable as he develops better technique. I’m skeptical, but the moments he flashed at South Carolina keep me coming back to the well.

Defensive Tackle Kawann Short, Carolina: I thought Star Lotulelei had a great get-off at the line of scrimmage for a defensive tackle, but the Carolina staff believes Short is more explosive. Short, who was criticized at times for taking plays off, explains that he didn’t want to leave the field even when he was tired and this lent to the perception that he didn’t play with 100 percent effort. I’ll buy it. In fact, I’ll buy that the Carolina Panthers defensive front could have a rotation that gives offenses fits if Lotulelei and Short can start their careers on the right foot.

Safety D.J. Swearinger, Texans: Footballguys writer Jene Bramel called me a butthead last night after I selected Swearinger in our FBGs IDP Dynasty League. If you didn’t know about the South Carolina defensive back, then I’d say the good doctor of IDP’s name calling incident is a good endorsement of the defender’s promise. Swearinger is an aggressive player with control and when you find a defensive back who can cover and punish, you’re looking at a versatile option capable of playing both safety spots. Swearinger is a drawing praise for his confidence and production in training camp. He may start the season ahead of Ed Reed, who is still recovering from injury. Don’t be surprised if he switches to strong safety and stays on the field when Reed returns. If not, I think he’ll be on the field in a lot of pass-heavy sets.

Safety Earl Wolff, Eagles: When Josh Norris and Dan Shonka both love Wolff, then it’s time to pay attention to the safety from N.C. State. I began keeping tabs on him after he earned first-team looks in mini camp. Now he’s earning those same looks with the pads on. He has a knack for being around the football and the Eagles’ secondary hasn’t had quality play anchoring it since Brian Dawkins left town. Wolff has brains, speed, and he can tackle in space as well as bring it at the line of scrimmage. What I want to see is if scouts were wrong about him being too small to make tackles in the run game.  In a safety class that might be the jewel of this 2013 draft, Wolff wasn’t the most talked about, but he might become one of the best of the lot when it’s all said and done.  It depends on his ability to shed blocks and be a run-stopping force.

Safety Bacarri Rambo, Redskins: The athleticism is there, but the read-and-react skills need work. If he can develop into a conceptually strong professional and study his opposition’s tendencies, he could become a long-term starter. So far Rambo is earning reps as the starter so I’m interested to see how he progresses – especially in an NFC East where the passing games of this division can make the rookie pay for any false moves.

Linebacker Alec Ogletree, Rams: Ogletree is the second of three Georgia defenders I’m monitoring this summer. A former safety, Ogletree has the range and fundamental skills that reminded me stylistically of Keith Bulluck, which is why it made all the sense in the world for Jeff Fisher to select him. And it made further sense that Fisher brought in Bulluck to work with Ogletree this summer. Both players are physically similar and Ogletree has the potential to become a terrific player in space. He needs to get more consistent shedding defenders. I think in 2-3 years he’ll be a good outside linebacker for St. Louis who can play every down.

Safety Sean Williams, Bengals: The third Bulldog on this list, Williams came to Athens as a linebacker before switching to the defensive backfield. While there are better athletes at the position in this class, I think Williams is a smart player who applies that intelligence once he has a feel for his scheme. When he does, he makes strong reads and he can deliver the lumber. If Taylor Mays had Williams’ conceptual talent for the game, he’d be an All-Pro. Instead, I think Mays has a better shot of seeing the bench.

Barkevious Mingo may not be as smooth as Dion Jordan, but he's naturally more violent and disruptive. Photo by Erik Daniel Drost.
Barkevious Mingo may not be as smooth as Dion Jordan, but he’s naturally more violent and disruptive. Photo by Erik Daniel Drost.

Outside Linebacker Barkevious Mingo, Browns: Dion Jordan was compared to Aldon Smith, but it’s Mingo who is likely to earn this type of role in Ray Horton’s incarnation of the Brown’s defense. Mingo is still adding some of that “man weight” that comes with work and age (18-25 years of age), but Peter King has already said the Browns outside linebacker is the best rookie he’s seen thus far.

Mingo King

I love Mingo and felt like between him and Jordan, Mingo has more upside as the destructive force, even if Jordan is the more polished, versatile option. I’m looking forward to seeing how seeing how fast Mingo can make the jump.

Cornerback Xavier Rhodes, Vikings: Rhodes is another physically impressive corner with size, speed, and quickness. He’ll have a good shot at starting this season and learning trial by fire. If you think Patrick Peterson is a big corner, get a look at Rhodes who is an inch taller and just a couple of pounds lighter (before he entered camp). Rhodes demonstrated room for growth at Florida State and his ceiling is high enough that he can become one of the better press corners in the league. Before a hamstring injury this week, he’s flashed the quick hands, hard punch, and tight coverage you want to see from a press corner. Considering that he’ll facing physical receivers like Calvin Johnson, Jordy Nelson, James Jones, Brandon Marshall, and Alshon Jeffery, I’m looking forward to seeing the initial returns. I’m expecting the forecast to be ugly with occasional glimmers of light.

Second-Year Players I’m Monitoring in August

Stuart is willing to give LaMichael James a shot to earn the starting job with his RSP Writers team.  Photo by Neon Tommy.
I loved watching James at Oregon and he’s worth monitoring as a second-year player with the 49ers. See who else I’m watching closely for a variety of reasons. Photo by Neon Tommy.

What have you done for me lately? It’s an underlying mantra of performance-based industry. Of course there is the concept of earning equity on past performance. Peyton Manning built enough equity in his career that a career-threatening neck injury didn’t prevent at least three teams to engage in a high-stakes bidding war for his services.

Draft picks often earn a little equity because NFL teams are paying them a salary that influences these organizations to show a little patience. Still, it’s a small increment of time. Teams expect second-year players to make a significant improvement with their play or Year Three is a “get good or get going” scenario.

Earlier this week I wrote about 10 rookie offensive players and players that I’m monitoring during the preseason. This post is a series of short profiles of 10 offensive players entering Year Two who I’ll be monitoring with interest.

Tight End/Fullback Evan Rodriguez, Dolphins: Rodriguez has the skills to become a productive H-Back in the NFL. He’s a physical player with good skills after the catch and the speed to threaten the seam. The Bears drafted the Temple product last year and 14 months later the team waived its fourth-round pick after two arrests (DUI and disorderly conduct) during the off season. Rodriguez has a golden opportunity to earn a spot on the depth chart and learn from Dustin Keller, a receiver with similar dimensions who has more polish and professionalism, but lacks Rodriguez’s rough and tumble style. If the second-year prospect figures out that Miami is a chance for a career rebirth and not a grave yard disguised as a party, he could give the Dolphins enormous flexibility as a player who can move around the offensive formation and help Ryan Tannehill dictate the defensive scheme before the snap. I’m monitoring Rodriguez to see if he can mature and commit himself to being a professional.  If so, he has the football acumen to develop into a player like Chris Cooley, who was an H-Back earning 50-70 catches 700-plus-yards, and 6-8 touchdowns between 2005-2007.

Wide Receiver Rod Streater, Raiders: The second of three skill players who were rookies from Temple last year (Bernard Pierce was the third), Streater surprised NFL fans in 2012 when the undrafted free agent walked into Raiders’ camp and earned a significant role in the Oakland offense, gaining nearly 600 yards and averaging 15 yards per catch. I liked Streater’s speed, skill to set up breaks, and use of his hands against press.  Even after last year’s success I still have questions about Streater’s ability to make plays in tight coverage and against physical play. I thought he needed to get stronger physically. So far, reports from Raiders’ camp indicate that Streater is the most consistent option on the field. While I’m not making a physical comparison, I used to hear the same praise for Todd Pinkston until he hit the field. The Raiders have a receiver in Streater with true upside as an all-around threat, even if he never elevates his game to stardom. My checklist report on Rod Streater with play-by-play notes from a senior-year contest against Ohio.

Running Back Lamichael James, 49ers: San Francisco’s backfield is not as crowded as it appears. As talented and dedicated as he is, Marcus Lattimore is a hope and a dream for next year that may never come to fruition. Kendall Hunter looks fast . . . on the sideline rehabbing an Achilles’ tear. While Hunter is expected back before the season It leaves two healthy backs of note: Frank Gore and Lamichael James. Gore is what Achilles’ would have looked like on a football field post-Trojan Horse Incident (and survived) if his mamma had held him by the backs of his knees while dipping him into the River Styx as a baby. But Gore’s journey to the Elysian Fields of pro football is drawing near and there must be a successor. This year, that successor-in-training could be James, who has bulked up to 205 pounds and maintained his lightning-quick burst and agility. Gore has also noted that James’ improvement as a pass protector is “night and day” better. That’s the key. James has the talent to be this decade’s Brian Westbrook in Pistol formation where he can make a defense pay huge if they misread who is getting the ball. There’s a good chance James may never be a bell-cow back, but give him 120-150 touches and 40-60 receptions and he’ll be a dangerous weapon.

Wide receiver depth for the Texans could be the difference between a deep playoff run and another one-and-done. Photo of Keshawn Martin by Matt Radickal.
Wide receiver depth for the Texans could be the difference between a deep playoff run and another one-and-done. Photo of Keshawn Martin by Matt Radickal.

Wide Receiver Keshawn Martin, Texans: Andre Johnson and DeAndre Hopkins are the receivers of note, but with Jacoby Jones and Kevin Walter leaving town in recent years, I’m curious if Martin can develop fast enough to provide the Texans quality plays not only as a slot receiver, but as depth on the perimeter. Sure Lestar Jean might own that role in name, but I like Martin’s versatility. If Johnson or Hopkins succumb to injury, the Texans will need a second play-maker to be more than a one-and-done playoff team.

Running Back Michael Smith, Buccaneers: The addition of Mike James, Brian Leonard and Peyton Hillis make it appear that the Buccaneers may have Smith as the No.2 runner on its depth chart, but they don’t trust him to have a starter workload with near the volume of Doug Martin. I don’t blame them. However, I do believe he is by far the most talented runner on the roster after Martin and close observers of the Buccaneers happenings have a quiet, but collective man-crush on the explosive, second-year runner from Utah State. I often thought Smith and Colts rookie Kerwynn Williams were smarter runners between the tackles than the team’s big back Robert Turbin.

Wide Receiver LaVon Brazill, Colts: Brazill flashed skill that earned him a spot behind Reggie Wayne last year and he made a few big plays in a cameo role. If you’ve been reading this blog for at least a year then you know I loved his skills at Ohio. A substance abuse violation has left Brazill’s roster spot in jeopardy this summer and by all accounts he’s had a mistake-prone camp. The one thing I did like is that Brazill admitted that he has to eliminate marijuana from his life if he wants a shot at earning a living in the NFL. He stated the obvious rather than danced around the issue. With Darrius Heyward-Bey dealing with a sprained knee, Brazill still has a shot to keep his roster spot despite good work from Andrew Luck’s former Stanford roommate Griff Whalen. On the basis of talent, Whalen is a career reserve; Brazill is a potential starter, but professionalism and consistency matter.

Running Back Chris Polk, Eagles: Polk should have been a no worse than a fourth-round pick based on his talent (and that’s a very conservative estimate), but he went undrafted. I can only speculate through the lens of my own observations why:

  • His conditioning looked like that of a running back from another era. He had a bit of a spare tire at the Senior Bowl.
  • He appeared stiff as an athlete in Mobile.
  • Like Zach Sudfeld this year, Polk’s lengthy injury dossier was a turnoff.

Polk was signed after the Eagles drafted Bryce Brown – a back with immense talent, but had made numerous questionable decisions, including quitting the Kansas State team. But Polk was still good enough to make the Eagles roster last year and this year he and Brown made Dion Lewis expendable. While Brown is a phenomenal talent capable of All-Pro production, Polk isn’t far behind – especially now that he’s in shape. Chip Kelly knows this after facing the University of Washington running back in conference play. Polk is an even better receiver than Brown and he’s a tough, patient runner who breaks tackles. I’m monitoring Polk because I think he’ll push Bryce Brown if Brown continues to bounce runs to the corner store and carry the ball like it’s a dirty diaper.

Wide Receiver Marvin Jones, Bengals: You’re surprised, he’s listed I know. I never mention him. You shouldn’t be surprised that he’s earning more love than Mohammed Sanu from observers at Bengals’ practice. Jones runs better routes, has a better vertical game, and he’s tougher in tight coverage. Not that it will matter greatly, because Marvin Lewis isn’t big on depth charts and Sanu will see plenty of time – especially in the red zone where he thrives. However, it will matter greatly if A.J. Green gets hurt and I believe if this happens Jones can provide the type of production we used to see from Donald Driver in Green Bay.

I've never left the Hillman bandwagon. Just lounging in the backseat enjoying my popcorn. Photo by West Point U.S. Military Academy.
I’ve never left the Hillman bandwagon. Just lounging in the backseat enjoying my popcorn. Photo by West Point U.S. Military Academy.

Running Back Ronnie Hillman, Broncos: I swear there are times I wake in the morning on my office couch after a late night of writing and have a flashback that Cecil Lammey sneaked into my office and chanted “Hillman” in my ear non-stop for 15 minutes. Since I’m not afraid of running backs underwhelming as rookies or being labeled too light or too small, Hillman is near the top of my list as a player worth monitoring during the preseason. The fact he wasn’t much of a blocker didn’t surprised me last year; he still ran like the player I saw at San Diego State. It seems like many people are waiting for Montee Ball to become the starter at some point this season. If Hillman stays healthy, I think those folks might need a comfortable recliner – it even comes in Orange Crush.

Wide Receiver Brian Quick, Rams: I’ve been skeptical of Quick’s prospects and I remain so. Now that the Rams are playing a wide-open offense, can Quick fit in? Can he run routes? Has he improved enough to contribute? Austin Pettis lacks Quick’s athletic upside (which I think has been overstated since fall of 2012), but he understands the game and has great mitts. I’m looking forward to hearing more about Quick’s progress to see if there is any glimmer of hope.

Fantasy draft coming up? Download the 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio available now. Better yet, if you’re a fantasy owner the 56-page Post-Draft Add-on comes with the 2013 RSP at no additional charge and available for download within a week after the NFL Draft. Best, yet, 10 percent of every sale is donated to Darkness to Light to combat sexual abuse. You can purchase past editions of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio for just $9.95 apiece.

Reads Listens Views 8/2/2013

It's already difficult enough for the NFL to pick a prized catch from the multitudes. Even so, it needs to keep getting better. See below. Photo from National Geographic.
It’s already difficult enough for the NFL to pick a prized catch from the multitudes. Even so, it needs to keep getting better. See below. Photo from National Geographic.

Views

[youtube=http://youtu.be/0Q5pW6I0sEk]

Nica’s Dream – great tune performed by an excellent guitarist.

Football Read & Commentary

Thompkins might be an example of how most NFL teams weren't thorough enough with character evaluation. Photo by expatsfootball.com
Thompkins might be an example of how most NFL teams weren’t thorough enough with character evaluation. Photo by expatsfootball.com

Kenbrell Thompkins Rescues Himself From Woes – I think most of you get it: I’m rooting for Thompkins because I liked what I saw from him on the field. Another reason is what I read in Michael McKnight’s Sports Illustrated piece on Thompkins well before the Patriots signed him.  The Boston Herald delves a little deeper into Thompkins’ story now that the UDFA wide out has impressed just about everyone who has attended a training camp practice. I’ve written about the public and private scrutiny of character  and the gulf that young players often have to traverse to transition from college star to productive professional.

I’m linking to Thompkins’ camp reports so much this preseason, because I think it’s important to celebrate people who turn their lives around and make good.  Regardless of whether he becomes a productive player, Thompkins is proof positive that people can grow past the mistakes of their youth. If it is true that NFL teams didn’t sign him due to his seven arrests in high school then it’s also an indication that there’s significant flaws in the evaluation process – especially when it comes to assessing character.

Read the two stories above and you’ll understand that this young man hasn’t been arrested in eight years. He’s been on a zero-tolerance program with Cincinnati’s Butch Jones. He worked his tail off in Torrance, California to learn the receiver position. He graduated with a degree in criminal justice.

If a team didn’t draft him due to seven arrests before adulthood then I have to believe that they aren’t examining players with enough depth or perspective. They didn’t consider when he was arrested and his law-abiding behavior since. If they interviewed any of the coaches, teammates, or family members of Thompkins, they either didn’t trust what they heard or took a way too cautious approach. I believe they were covering their asses.

It’s easy to jump through hoops and say you’re thorough, but if you’re not truly analyzing the information, what is all that time, money, and effort worth? That’s the blow-back of a public relations-conscious society: We spend more time focused on covering ourselves to avoid looking bad than actually spending the time to make a good decision. Saying you’re being thorough so you’re not scrutinized and being thorough so you can face it with confidence are two different things.

At the same time, Thompkins’ 78 catches, 1077 yards, and 4 touchdowns in 2 years isn’t fantastic college production so there could have been a good argument made that teams expected to be able to wait until the end of the draft to sign the receiver. However, the fact that Butch Jones had use his connections to sell the Patriots on Thompkins is a telling sign that the NFL saw “seven arrests” and didn’t bother to look hard enough.

There’s lots of talk from former scouts that NFL teams spend as much or more money on private investigators and delving into character than studying on-field performance. If that’s true, Thompkins is a developing into a compelling case why the quality of the legwork may need further review.

Remember great players are exceptions to the role. They are unconventional. If you’re only willing to consider some template version of what’s good to cover your hind parts then you’ll never spot the exceptional.

Views

Speaking of exceptional. This "MJD-like dude" (according to Rex Ryan) is impressing with his speed and pass protection in Jets training camp.
Speaking of exceptional. This “MJD-like dude” (according to Rex Ryan) is impressing with his speed and pass protection in Jets training camp. Keep up the good work and Manish Mehta will remember your first name.

Views

[youtube=http://youtu.be/_Amwq43-lrM]

Now this is how you do “Happy Birthday”

Non-Football Reads

Views – Bob Burnquist (Thanks to Sigmund Bloom)

[youtube=http://youtu.be/tSnfO15cAHE]

This is a well-executed creative life. Inspiring stuff to see a man build this environment to continue growing in his field. I understand the desire.

Views – Chain of Fools

[youtube=http://youtu.be/h8rnHXV7A8Q]

Kind of looks like “Boogie Woogie Man” Jimmy Valiant, don’t you think?

A 261-page online publication that provides 1029 pages of play-by-play notes from my evaluation database and 10 percent of your purchase is donated to fight sexual abuse.
A 261-page online publication that provides 1029 pages of play-by-play notes from my evaluation database and 10 percent of your purchase is donated to fight sexual abuse.

Thank You

Generally, I post this in the beginning. If you’re new to the Rookie Scouting Portfolio blog then you may wonder why I’m posting non-football content today. Every Friday I like to change things up a bit to share what I found compelling during the week. Some of the stories are difficult reads and the music may not be your taste, but that’s just the luck of the draw. What I hope you’ll find worthwhile is this blog when I’m writing about football.

Based on the response thus far, you deserve a lot of thanks for helping me grow this outlet since its inception in 2011. That goes double for those of you who have taken the plunge and purchase the Rookie Scouting Portfolio publication. Now in its eighth year, the RSP is the most comprehensive – and perhaps meticulous – study of rookie skill players available.

For $19.95 you get both a pre-draft publication that includes rankings, game report cards, and play-by-play analysis for each player and a post-draft publication that updates rankings into a tiered cheat sheet and provides draft value data, and analysis on each player’s fit with his new team.  If you’re a fantasy football owner this publication will supply you with the information and perspective you’ll need to pull the trigger (or refrain) in re-draft and dynasty leagues.

I don’t have a mass audience like the big boys, but you should know that my readers are repeat customers who often have a “slap their forehead moment” once they make the decision to purchase the RSP because it’s worth more than they pay for it. The first-time buyers tell me so.

This is a career for me every year I try to make it better than the last in terms of quality of content, transparency of analysis, and improvement of my evaluation process.  Because I spend so much time creating this information, I don’t get to make the time I’d like to give back to the community in the way I was once accustomed in my youth. So it dawned on me in 2012 to donate 10 percent of every sale to a cause I believe in: Darkness to Light. This organization trains individuals and community organizations to recognize and prevent sexual abuse in communities. As football fans, I think we know first hand how even smart, accomplished people can do a poor job of handling the issue of sexual abuse.

Get the RSP and make this a win (you) – win (me) – win (giving back to the community) scenario and download the 2013 RSP now. Past issues (2006-2012) are available for $9.95.

How I’d Use Tim Tebow In New England

I haven't written much about Tebow, but here's an instance where I'd love to see him used in New England. Photo by Wade Rackley.
I haven’t written much about Tebow, but here’s an instance below where I’d love to see him used in New England. Photo by Wade Rackley.

Outside of Kenbrell Thompkins and Shane Vereen, I haven’t been a close observer of Patriots training camp. However, I heard there might be some use of Tebow as a tight end and it got me thinking of how I’d use Tim Tebow if I were New England’s offensive coordinator.

The Obvious

I’d be shocked if the Patriots don’t use Tebow on read-option plays in the red zone at least on a few plays a year. I don’t think it will happen a lot, because taking Tom Brady off the field is foolish. However, I think it will be difficult for the Patriots coaching staff to resist the temptation against some weaker run teams.

The reason is Rob Gronkowski’s strength as a run blocker combined with Zach Sudfeld’s experience as a wing back/H-back in Chris Ault’s Pistol sets as a lead blocker – much like Chris Brown described in his recent Grantland piece.  This two-tight end personnel with Sudfeld a better lead blocker than Aaron Hernandez ever was could provide a short-yardage power element and increase the versatility of the set.  I’ll illustrate the wrinkle I’d use later.

Tim Tebow Tight End?

I’ve heard this is a possibility and it’s the red zone sets where I think the Patriots would implement it. Think about Mike Vrabel’s work as a red zone tight end and I think we can expect similar looks to Tebow – especially with teams focused on Gronkowski. If the rookie Sudfeld – a 6’7″ specimen with skill to adjust to the football – plays to his potential, opposing defenses could lose track of Tebow as a receiver.

Using Tebow at tight end also creates additional formation flexibility where the Patriots can adjust before the snap:

  • Shift Gronkowski or Sudfeld away from the formation.
  • Shift Tebow to the backfield as a runner or quarterback.
  • Hand the ball the Ridley to an unbalanced strong side with Tebow as a fullback/H-Back.
  • Use unbalanced sets with Tebow on the wing to dictate a numbers advantage to one side and then throw backside crosses, slants, and jerk routes to receivers.

There’s a lot that Tebow’s presence can do for red zone packages. My favorite is the last one below.

Two-Quarterback Backfield

Tebow

This setup could create a lot of options for an offense in the red zone. First, it’s an unbalanced set with two versatile tight ends. Brady could shift the tight ends to balance the line. Or, if the shift would place one or both of the tight ends in a match up advantage with a linebacker, nickel corner, or safety of preference, they could spread the field.

But what I love most about this look is that Tebow could run, pass, or catch from his alignment. Placing Tebow behind Sudfeld on the wing provides enormous flexibility in the run game. If the defensive numbers are stacked to the strong side, they can run a counter with Sudfeld as a lead blocker and the twin receivers slanting inside to seal the inside.

If the defenses has even distribution, Tebow can run behind the strong side with good blocks ahead. The Patriots could do this with a direct snap to Tebow or an exchange from Brady.

And it’s this split of the quarterbacks over the guards that could force defenses to guess which player is getting the ball. Teams will guess run if it goes to Tebow, pass to Brady. But Tebow has proven he can deliver the ball in the red zone and there will be times he will have easy throws to Gronkowski or Sudfeld and even easier passes to his left (his natural side) to the backside receivers.

If teams are too aggressive playing Tebow, Brady also could have some easy throws.   Plus, I’d use two of  Shane Vereen, Julian Edelman (if ready), and Danny Amendola as my receivers. I could incorporate some Wildcat with Tebow and Vereen/Edelman motioning from the outside towards the formation.  Now there’s the possibility of zone-read, Wild Cat, and guessing which quarterback gets the snap.

If you’re fan of the team or have been monitoring training camp, let me know if what I describe below is happening in practices.

RSP Flashback: Rutgers RB Ray Rice

[youtube=http://youtu.be/7ksRKbr16hw]

One of the most common questions I get from new readers is What did you think about [insert player name here] before [NFL team] drafted him? For the next month, I’m posting scouting reports of some of my bigger hits and misses when it comes to the past eight years of evaluating rookies for the Rookie Scouting Portfolio. I’ll also include the lessons I learned – or am still learning – from the experience of evaluating these players.

Size Matters, But Technique Matters More

“Rice will be an every-down back in the NFL and potentially a Pro-Bowl Player”

– 2008 Rookie Scouting Portfolio 

Ray Rice is one of my favorite current players in the NFL. That admiration goes back to his years at Rutgers. As a rule, I tend to watch numerous games of each player even if I only formally study a handful (2-4) contests with my evaluation system.  What I remember about Rice is how well he handled a huge workload. 

The 5-8, 199-pound junior just came off a 36-carry, 196-yard, 3-touchdown performance against Syracuse when he faced South Florida’s top-ranked defense that had good speed up front. This unit had not allowed 100 yards to a runner in over a year – including games against the likes of Auburn, UCF (Kevin Smith), and West Virginia (Steve Slaton). The last back to post 100 yards on the Bulls?

Ray Rice.

And after a 36-carry performance, the Scarlet Knights had no problem returning to the well in the fourth quarter of this tight game and riding its star runner for a total of 39 carries for 181 yards to earn a 30-27 victory. Rice didn’t score in this game, but he had 7 first downs and 8 broken tackles.

Rice, along with Adrian Peterson, Ricky Williams, Cedric Benson, Steven Jackson, and Ladainian Tomlinson, all debunk the workload myth. The player Rice reminded me of stylistically was Emmitt Smith. I described Rice as undersized, but a tough runner with vision who gets stronger as the game progresses.

Lesson Learned from Rice:  What makes Rice this type of runner and differentiates him from many backs is his pad level. There are a lot of backs that have a low center of gravity with their size, but for their height they don’t have a running style that maximizes this physical advantage. It doesn’t matter to me whether a running back is 5-6 or 6-5, if he doesn’t learn how to maximize his center of gravity, he’s more likely to leave yards on the field and take more punishment than necessary.

This doesn’t mean a runner has to have his knees and hips bent and his pads low. I loved Edgerrin James’ game for his textbook pad level and insane ability to get lower than his opponents in situations most backs couldn’t duplicate. I saw James turn more two-yard runs into five-yard gains than any back I’ve watched in the past 20 years, but it’s obvious few backs run like James.

The most important facet of good pad level is awareness and timing. Fans and writers always list exceptions like Adrian Peterson, Eddie George, and Eric Dickerson. All three run high, but what’s missed is how they lower the pads at the right time.

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sK3c4GzN4pE&w=560&h=315]

What fans often miss with short runners is whether they truly run with a low center of gravity at the point of contact. They can be so preoccupied with trying to make a defender miss that the pads are too high, the knees aren’t churning, and they invite contact that drives them backwards.

Functional power is about leverage and there’s two things runners can do to maximize functional power: minimize surface area (low pad level, knees high, and feet high) and/or concentrate his power into a central spot (forearm or shoulders).

Rice doesn’t take his low center of gravity for granted. He maximizes his small surface area and combines it with burst and the skill to eliminate angles with sound press-and-cut technique as an interior runner.

This .PDF document – Ray Rice – contains two scouting reports on the runner I rated No.2 among backs in the 2008 Rookie Scouting Portfolio. This includes a loaded class of Rashard Mendenhall, Matt Forte, Felix Jones, Jamaal Charles, Darren McFadden, Steve Slaton, and Chris Johnson. 

For analysis of skill players in this year’s draft class, download the 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio available now. Better yet, if you’re a fantasy owner the 56-page Post-Draft Add-on comes with the 2013 RSP at no additional charge and available for download within a week after the NFL Draft. Best, yet, 10 percent of every sale is donated to Darkness to Light to combat sexual abuse. You can purchase past editions of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio for just $9.95 apiece.

Eagles WR Riley Cooper: What He Offers, What to Monitor

Riley Cooper is a rapport-type of player. He has the skills to succeed, but his QB will need to have the confidence and skills to make tight throws. Photo by Matthew Straubmuller.
Riley Cooper is a rapport-type of player. He has the skills to succeed, but his QB will need to have the confidence and skills to make tight throws. Photo by Matthew Straubmuller.

During the Urban Meyer Era at Florida there were three skill guys who caught my eye and held serious intrigue as future NFL players: Aaron Hernandez, Tim Tebow, and Riley Cooper. Hernandez’s potential as a game-changing weapon were apparent whenever he saw a target where he could turn up field. Tebow was the lightning rod for debate. Former CBS Sportsline/NFL Draft Scout and NFL.com film analyst Chad Reuter and I had our first fun debate over Tebow. Reuter was convinced Tebow would be a first-round pick and he was right.

While I thought Tebow would have a tough time developing the skills of a traditional pocket passer, I have to credit Reuter for seeing ahead of the curve and having an understanding that the read-option was coming to the league. While Tebow may never get a long-term opportunity again as a starter, there may be a similar dynamic in play that held back Doug Flutie. Different style players, but both thrived as improvisers and leaders and could win with the right offensive system.

But it was Cooper who I thought was sliding under the radar. Tall (6’4″), built (224 lbs.), and swift enough to get separation down field, Cooper didn’t benefit from playing in a system where the quarterback could make multiple reads and execute the vertical game efficiently. Those weren’t Tebow’s strengths, but there were still enough examples on tape where Cooper flashed the potential to develop a complete game.

I wasn’t alone. NFL Network analyst Daniel Jeremiah was between scouting gigs that year when Cecil Lammey and I caught up with him at the Senior Bowl. Cooper was one of Jeremiah’s favorite receivers at the practices and I could see why. Cooper was consistently working open on intermediate routes, earning separation deep, and making difficult targets look easy. He wasn’t flashy, but he was sound.

It may not be how it went down, but it’s no coincidence to me that Jeremiah took a job as a scout with the Eagles soon after the Senior Bowl and Philadelphia drafted Cooper in April. Now that Jeremy Maclin is out for the year, Cooper earns a golden opportunity to start for the Eagles. It seems most observers and fans aren’t impressed with Cooper.

With the exception of some nice work with Vince Young a couple of years ago, I haven’t seen Cooper do much since his days at Florida so there’s a chance he hasn’t developed his game for the pros at the expected trajectory I thought he was capable. However, I have a sneaky feeling that those who are underwhelmed by Cooper are those who need to see a flashy game to be impressed by a skill player.

Here’s my predraft take of Riley Cooper from the 2010 Rookie Scouting Portfolio. Cooper was my No.8 receiver overall behind the likes of Dez Bryant, Damian Williams, Golden Tate, Arrelious Benn, Andre Roberts, Eric Decker, and Blair White – and of course, Demaryius Thomas.

Report Highlights

Cooper scored a 74 and an 81 on two game reports I performed on him as a Senior against Alabama and Cincinnati in the 2010 Sugar Bowl. These reports are on a 100-point scale and Cooper’s scores placed him in the range of a bench player with the skill to contribute immediately in selected packages if needed. These evaluations were done a year or two before I began documenting a “Ceiling Score,” which is my way of gauging his potential at the NFL level based on the ease or difficulty of what he needed to learn.

Looking back through my notes, I think Cooper’s ceiling score would have been in the high 80s – low 90s, which is starter material.  Below are cleaned up play-by-play notes from these two games. Cooper’s stats versus Alabama:

  • 7 Targets
  • 1 Missed Target (QB)
  • 2 Drop
  • 2 Dropped After Contact
  • 77 Yards
  • 51 YAC

Cooper’s stats versus Cincinnati:

  • 8 Targets
  • 1 Missed Target (QB)
  • 7 Receptions
  • 2 Difficult Receptions
  • 181 Yards
  • 60 YAC
  • 1 TD

Here are my overall summaries of these two games as well as my actual play-by-play notes of Riley Cooper that describe what I saw.

Overall Strengths (vs. Alabama): I think Cooper has a lot of potential to be a starting NFL receiver. He is a physical player against press coverage and uses his size to his advantage to get open. He has enough speed to separate vertically and he can adjust to the football in the air. He demonstrates some facility with pro-style, intermediate routes. He is a good runner in the open field who can dip in and out of traffic and shows good balance to get yards after contact. He is a physical player as a blocker and can help on special teams.

I don’t think Cooper is as athletic as Jordy Nelson, but he might be a better receiver at this stage of his development. Michael Irvin would be at the top of the spectrum of receivers to compare Cooper (stylistically). I think he has more upside and down field speed than Malcolm Kelly.

Overall Strengths (vs. Cincinnati): Good route runner. He sets up defenders in single coverage on deep routes with subtle, but very effective moves to get defenders to turn their hips at the wrong time. he can adjust to the ball in the air and make catches with his hands away from his body in tight coverage. Combine these skills with what I think is good speed and Cooper has NFL potential.

Overall Weaknesses (vs. Alabama): Cooper dropped the tough catches after contact that an NFL receiver needs to make. He has good, but not great speed. He needs to prove he can run the entire route tree. Cooper also lacks dynamic athleticism to become a major open-field threat.

Overall Weaknesses (vs. Cincinnati): I didn’t see him face press coverage. he will need to work on extending his routes in the pros because he’ll be playing with quarterbacks that will have the ability to look to more than one quadrant of the field.

What To Look For In Eagles Camp

Cooper will need to catch the ball in tight coverage and after contact. If he still has consistency issues against physical play as the ball arrives, he’s only going to be a role player because his athleticism is good enough, but only good enough to get initial separation and then use his frame to shield the defender from the ball. This means Cooper will be a better fit for the quarterback capable of squeezing the ball into a tight window. If you hear about Cooper working extra with quarterbacks to get more rapport this will be a good sign, because he’s not going to get two steps on defenders and run the ball down as much as he’ll have to make a catch with a defender draped over his back.

Cooper’s size and strength makes him a good candidate for red zone targets on fades, crossing routes, and plays at the end line. If Nick Foles or Matt Barkley see the field, Cooper could earn a lot more targets in the red zone than I think he will with Vick under center. Foles was a pretty good fade route passer at Arizona and Barkley to Woods was often a thing of beauty at USC.

As I mentioned earlier, I did see some nice work with Cooper and Vince Young on scramble drills and I think this is where he may shine with Vick for some big plays behind the defense. However, this is contingent on Vick not leaning heavily on zone-beater Jason Avant, who has some of the most reliable mitts on the team and works a shorter-safer range of the field.

2013 Outlook

I expect DeSean Jackson, LeSean McCoy, James Casey, and Zach Ertz to earn the most targets this year. Cooper might threaten Casey or Ertz’s standing on the totem pole, but I think it’s more likely that Jason Avant, Damaris Johnson, and even Russell Shephard will earn some looks in a rotation that limit Cooper’s targets. However, if Foles or Barkley earn time, Cooper might surprise in the way fellow teammate David Nelson did with the Bills during the Ryan Fitzpatrick era.

For analysis of skill players in this year’s draft class, download the 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio available now. Better yet, if you’re a fantasy owner the 56-page Post-Draft Add-on comes with the 2013 RSP at no additional charge and available for download within a week after the NFL Draft. Best, yet, 10 percent of every sale is donated to Darkness to Light to combat sexual abuse. You can purchase past editions of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio for just $9.95 apiece.

RSP Flashback: Dennis Pitta

What Pitta is doing here was commonplace for him at BYU - healthy or otherwise. Photo by Phil Romans.
What Pitta is doing here was commonplace for him at BYU – healthy or otherwise. Photo by Phil Romans.

One of the most common questions I get from new readers is What did you think about [insert player name here] before [NFL team] drafted him? For the next month, I’m posting scouting reports of some of my bigger hits, misses, and lingering questions when it comes to the past eight years of evaluating rookies for the Rookie Scouting Portfolio. I’ll also include the lessons I learned – or am still learning – from the experience of evaluating these players. [Author’s Note: I wrote this about Pitta two weeks ago. Too bad about his injury, he was poised for another strong season]

“[Pitta] is a tough, versatile player who might not wow teams with field-stretching plays, but he will be a great safety valve capable of the big, “little” plays that sustain drives and seal wins . . . paired with a veteran QB and [he] could out-produce some of the more athletic prospects in this class.”

– 2010 Rookie Scouting Portfolio

The 2010 tight end class was a great group that included no less than 16 players – including Dennis Pitta – who have made NFL teams and contributed meaningful minutes:

  • Jimmy Graham
  • Rob Gronkowski
  • Aaron Hernandez
  • Garrett Graham
  • Jermaine Gresham
  • Tony Moeaki
  • Ed Dickson
  • Jim Dray
  • Michael Hoomanawanui
  • Dorin Dickerson
  • Nate Byham
  • Andrew Quarless
  • Anthony McCoy
  • Dedrick Epps

I think 11 of these 15 tight ends above are better athletes than Pitta, but I had the BYU prospect ranked No.4 in this class – over some major names in this group. One was Gronkowski, who was suffering from back issues and I had concerns about his long-term viability.

Another was Graham, who was inexperienced and I felt it was difficult to rank him higher for having one great dimension to his game when the right team might not pick him to exploit it. Graham was one of several players between 2006-2010 who inspired an RSP Post-Draft because I mentioned in the 2010 RSP that the right team picking this Hurricanes tight end would be rewarded.

A third player with a higher profile than Pitta that I placed lower in my rankings was Gresham. The Sooners star was too inconsistent in all phases of the game despite his physical talents. While I whiffed on Demaryius Thomas because I didn’t pay enough attention to his workouts, Pitta’s injury situation on the field and the system at BYU actually highlighted certain skills that made me think the tight end would be productive NFL player.

The Cougars tight end was in a knee brace that restricted his movement in the games I watched. And it was what Pitta was able to do at a higher level than most tight ends I’ve watched in the college game while physically limited: play long against tight coverage and find the open zone.

http://youtu.be/m11pJJXm3Hs

He also reminded me of the likes of Frank Wycheck and Todd Christensen because of his skill creating openings.

[youtube=http://youtu.be/of1Y_N2jaQI]

Purely from the standpoint of athleticism, you could joke that neither Wycheck nor Christensen belonged in the NFL. However, their smarts, ability to handle a physical brand of football, and skill to do all the little things to generate big plays with and without the ball in their hands separate Pitta from the likes of his more physically talented teammate Ed Dickson – a good player, but lacks that extra level of savvy that would make him a borderline star, but has him planted behind Pitta despite being picked a round earlier.

There are a  lot of things the highlights reveal about Pitta’s game that makes him a tough player both against man and zone coverage. First is the wide catch radius. Throw the ball high, low, outside or behind, and Pitta can adjust. Combine this with his ability to make plays in traffic and skill to work with his quarterback when the play breaks down and all of these qualities compensate for his lack of speed.

There were numerous things I learned or had reinforced as lessons from this 2010 tight end class:

  • I needed a post-draft analysis because of team fit (Graham-Hernandez).
  • Physical skills allow an evaluator to project how a player might fare against man coverage, but not necessarily zone coverage – where Pitta thrives.
  • Smart play lurks beyond stats and workout data.
  • Toughness to play physical and productive football while hurt separates great athletes from good football players.
  • I needed to document my process for ranking players in greater detail to connect the dots between game analysis and rankings analysis.

Here are my observations of Dennis Pitta from 2010.

For analysis of skill players in this year’s draft class, download the 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio available now. Better yet, if you’re a fantasy owner the 56-page Post-Draft Add-on comes with the 2013 RSP at no additional charge and available for download within a week after the NFL Draft. Best, yet, 10 percent of every sale is donated to Darkness to Light to combat sexual abuse. You can purchase past editions of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio for just $9.95 apiece.

Reads Listens Views 7/26/2013

Listens I – Johnny Adams 

[youtube=http://youtu.be/YAi0ZYI8EKs]

Thanks

You’d think it’s routine for me thank you for making the RSP blog a regular pit stop on your journey through the week. It is, but it doesn’t feel like it.  I have great readers who not only send me links to music, they send me CDs. They not only send me links to articles they find interesting, they send me books. And they not only send me well wishes, but cards for the holidays.

That’s crazy cool. Even for a reasonably private guy like me, who can do the extrovert thing, but naturally craves moments of alone time and silence throughout the day. Think about it, does an extrovert really spend this much time in a room by himself studying football like it’s research?  I suppose there are some, but they’re slightly more common than a two-headed shark.

Your visits, your follows, and your purchases of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio provide the emotional and fiscal encouragement to continue this journey and I am grateful for your patronage. So is my 12-year-old cat, who is currently holding my mouse hostage until I finish writing this post and get some sleep.

Luckily, I get around a keyboard well enough to tell you to do yourself a favor and support the Rookie Scouting Portfolio. Sign up for my mailing list to get updates on posts and purchase the publication. The 2013 RSP is $19.95 and includes over 1200 pages of pre-draft analysis that’s great for long-term use as a fantasy owner or draftnik and a post-draft publication that most of my readers believe is worth the price on its own for its tiered rankings, average draft position data from early season dynasty drafts, and value scores derived from this analysis. Get a sample report here.

Best of all, you’re supporting more than the Rookie Scouting Portfolio. I donate 10 percent of every sale to Darkness to Light, an organization whose mission is to address and prevent sexual abuse in communities across the country through training programs to the people who matter most – adults in local communities who interact with children like teachers, police officers, little league coaches, and clergy. Download the RSP here.

Football Reads

  • Why Don’t Woodpeckers Get Concussions – Ryan Riddle and Jene Bramel (and to a lesser extend me) had a Twitter discussion about concussions. It lead to the topic of why some animals (Rams and Woodpeckers) don’t suffer brain injuries. This article connects it back to football.
  • Breaking Down Sam Bradford’s Approach To A Game-Winning Drive Allen Dumonjic’s The Tape Never Lies pieces are always worth a read. He was first on my list of writers I wanted to guest write for this blog, but he’s got bigger and better things ahead for him.
  • 2013 PPR Auction Values – Good advice from Sigmund Bloom on how to develop a good auction strategy. Simple, easy, intuitive, and totally Bloom.

Listens II – Freddie King: “I’m Goin’ Down”

[youtube=http://youtu.be/V_ONyukSLqA]

Non-Football Reads

Views – These Images Might Tempt You To Eat Bugs

These images are from David George Gordon’s The Eat-A-Bug Cookbook and re-posted from the NPR Blog The Salt. My comments on what I’d eat below as well as Paulette’s. Note I’m a moderately adventurous eater and Mrs. P ain’t.

Sheesh! kebabs can be made with Eastern Lubber Grasshoppers (pictured here), katydids or other large-bodied arthropods.

Me: I’d try the grasshopper-kebabs, I can already imagine the balance of the sweet, sumptuousness of the grilled peppers complementing the crunch of the bug. Even the bug has a beautiful presentation with that hue of pinkness.

Paulette: Hmm…maybe if I closed my eyes, but if you put this in front of me I’d say two things: 1) You must be joking. And 2) Where’s my steak?

Fried green tomato hornworms

Me: Beautiful presentation . . .

Paulette: What? I don’t eat food that is as bright green as nuclear waste. I also dislike dishes heavy on tomatoes –

Me: And worms?

Paulette: Especially those. Although in an abstract way, it’s a beautiful picture, but as you know I don’t eat glowing green food. You? You could eat avocado all day.

Me: You eat that guacamole at the place near your office.

Paulette: That’s because they make a show of preparing it and I see everything they put in it.

Gordon recommends dusting the deep-fried tarantula spider with smoked paprika.

Paulette: [Retracts instinctively from the screen in horror (she has severe arachnophobia) and after her breathing slows down] Why did you even show me this?!

Me: It’s the first time I’ve seen this, too. Looks a little like calamari.

Paulette: Hell no . . . a girl has got to eat, but I’d starve to death first.

Me: If you didn’t suffocate from hyperventilation first.

Paulette: That too!

Me: I wonder what they do with the fur?

Paulette: That’s not funny . . .

Listens III – The Black Crowes and The Tedeschi Trucks Band

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lNJRx1cMYpM&w=420&h=315]

RSP Flashback: Vincent Brown (and Austin Collie and Steve Smith)

Vincent Brown's evaluation for me was a culmination of lessons learned before watching him. Photo by mclanea.
Vincent Brown’s evaluation for me was a culmination of lessons learned before watching him. Photo by mclanea.

One of the most common questions I get from new readers is What did you think about [insert player name here] before [NFL team] drafted him? For the next month, I’m posting scouting reports and/or thoughts on some of my bigger hits, misses, and lingering questions when it comes to the past eight years of evaluating rookies for the Rookie Scouting Portfolio. I’ll also include the lessons I learned – or am still learning – from the experience of evaluating these players.

Quickness Is More Important Than Speed

But what I think gives Collie a chance to produce is his burst. He’s not a burner, but he is among the quickest receivers in this class. He may not catch 50-yard bombs with great separation on his opponent, but he’s faster than most in his class during his first 20 yards down field. As he gains experience, Collie will be able to set up his routes around his burst.

– 2009 Rookie Scouting Portfolio

Put Brown on a team with a strong play action game and he has the similar early route speed of an Austin Collie to get on top of a defender and generate big gains in addition to the between-the hash heroics of a possession receiver. Brown’s skills as a route runner, his technique against press coverage, and comfort level with physical play makes him a starter-caliber prospect regardless of a slower 40-time.

– 2011 Rookie Scouting Portfolio

To describe what I learned from watching Vincent Brown, I have to go back to what I saw with Austin Collie and Steve Smith. In a 2009 wide receiver class that included the likes of Michael Crabtree, Percy Harvin, and Hakeem Nicks, I thought Collie had the best pair of hands I’ve seen since Larry Fitzgerald.  Nicks had this around-the-back catch against West Virginia and the 49ers staff raves about Crabtree’s hands, and both can make showy plays. Then there’s Fitzgerald, who makes the kind of ostentatious catches that seem impossible.

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XNcMF6ozE_Y&start=21w=420&h=315]

With the exception of a play at BYU where Collie dug a ball millimeters from the ground, Collie’s difficult grabs are generally understated. However, they are the type of passes that I often see more heralded prospects drop:

  • Seams, crossers, and post routes where the receiver just clears the underneath defender as the ball arrives, all the while aware of a strong chance he’ll get sandwiched. I call these Money Catches.
  • Low passes on comeback routes.
  • Catching the corner fade with the outside hand while looking over the inside shoulder.

Inexplicably, you won’t see a lot of these plays in YouTube highlights of Collie’s work at BYU. But a discussion of hands when it comes to receivers is talking about how well a basketball player can shoot. While there are a dozens of plays every year where the ostentatious catch is necessary, it’s a small percentage overall. When it comes to evaluating receivers, there’s a point where it crosses the line from utility to eye candy.

Basketball and football players have to show they can move with and without the ball and just like great shots and catches, speed can also cross the line from utility to eye candy. I don’t care if a receiver can beat everyone on the field in a race if he can’t make the right decisions to run the correct route,  he can’t handle physical play from those covering him over top, and he lacks the concentration to win the football in difficult situations, the value of his speed diminishes greatly.

Sabermetics/Analytics: Good Intentions Needing Reassessment

I think most fans and sabermetricians in football place far too much emphasis on the 40 time. I believe they don’t understand the actual cut-off point for what is a good 40-time. They place the cutoff in the 4.5 range. Based on the articles I’ve read at several sites, 4.5-speed is adequate and 4.3 is elite.

If I’m correct, it’s a misplaced notion. While a receiver with great straight line speed can be dominant, he’s only great if he can do everything else that a receiver is supposed to do: process the game in real-time, catch the ball against defenders, and run the offense with precision.  It’s rare for a receiver to out-run coverage with a safety over the top without some form of manipulation from another player. While a fast receiver may command that attention and place more stress on a defense it’s getting rarer despite the fact that receivers are getting faster with all of this emphasis on 40 time and 40-time training.

Regardless of the current NFL paradigm, I believe 4.6-4.7 – speed is adequate as long as that player has refined (or the potential to refine) technical and conceptual skills and adequate quickness. This is where players like Collie, Smith, and Brown shined. Their initial quickness is better than adequate. The same could be said for Anquan Boldin, Brandon Lloyd, Hakeem Nicks, and DeAndre Hopkins, who were all slower 40 runners.

I think the intent of analytics is a good one. They want to provide takeaways that help readers, fans, and in some cases, NFL teams. However, I have my fair share of interaction with marketing research – a field that is growing and getting attention just like football analytics.

The difference is that people who do marketing analytics understand the difficulty of truly arriving at short takeaways that executive teams desire. This is why it’s still difficult for them to get a seat at the boardroom table. Football analytics is a hot area, but it executives are also demanding takeaways. If market research is struggling to deliver these simple and elegant answers and they have strong academic training in statistical modeling, I fear that some in the football analytics field are are marketing their method as “the truth” when their methods would not pass muster in a true research environment.

Until personnel staff, sabermetricians, and fans actual focus on asking the right question (What is adequate speed and burst?), then I think they will struggle to deliver any worthwhile answer and just continue to torture data under the banner of objectivity. The problem is that many of these stats-based theories lack the setting and resources to do the quality of work required to generate optimal value. Still, it’s entertaining and don’t get me wrong, there are those who have the perspective to deliver nuggets of good information without getting too ambitious – Chase Stuart and Doug Drinen are two of my faves.

Just like scouting players based on tape, football analytics is still young. Scouting may be its older brother with a lot of dysfunctional traits, but analytics is a toddler in the same family that hasn’t worked through its hangups to avoid impacting its second son.

Team Fit Is Most Important

While Moss had the precision and speed to run under balls, he also could win 50/50 targets. Not all can do so and this makes fit to a players strengths a paramount importance in scouting. Photo by Brian J. McDermott.
While Moss had the precision and speed to run under balls, he also could win 50/50 targets. Not all can do so and this makes fit to a players strengths a paramount importance in scouting. Photo by Brian J. McDermott.

With an accurate quarterback who possesses exquisite timing, quickness outweighs speed. This is why a player like Collie or Steve Smith were great fits for a quarterback like Peyton Manning, but not so much for passer who relies more pure arm strength over precision. Randy Moss and Cris Carter were perfect fits for Daunte Culpepper, because the Vikings passer had truth arm strength. Moss could run under anything or win any 50/50 ball. Carter could also win 50/50 balls and had an incredible catch radius.

Culpepper didn’t need as much precision with these two as he would with Keenan McCardell, Reggie Wayne, Austin Collie, or Steve Smith. At the same time, Collie and Smith could make the tough plays in traffic. Pair them with a quarterback with the confidence to allow them to win the ball, and they could still thrive. However, that quarterback has to demonstrate good decision-making when to take that type of chance.

This is a good example why team fit is a huge factor with evaluating players. One list of rankings does not fit all.

The Colts list had to value precision as well as physical and mental quickness. What you will see in any BYU highlight video of Collie is a consistent ability to get behind linebackers, corners, and safeties on vertical routes despite the fact that he was labeled as slow.

A Quick Thinker, Acts quicker.

Get the early advantage and it shows up later. This is why Collie won so many vertical routes or is running wide open through zones. His big plays at Indy often came on quick-hitting, precision plays. These are difficult passes because of the mental component. Think about how many Collie and Manning connected on and you’ll see how quickness often trumps speed.

Collie’s RSP score was an 85, which is high for a wide receiver in my system. Only Crabtree, Harvin, and Darrius Heyward-Bey (a lesson learned that it’s very important for a receiver to show he can catch the ball away from his body and not allow athleticism to gloss over technique) had higher scores that year.

Although I thought Collie could get separation in the NFL because of his precision, burst, and concentration, I wasn’t confident enough in my assessment to rank him higher than 12th in this class when he should have been no lower than seventh.

This is something I also saw with Giants receiver Steve Smith in 2007. The former USC receiver had the burst to get separation but not the long speed to have a lot of uncontested vertical targets unless his quarterback could demonstrate precision timing. Eli Manning lacked that refined skill during the Smith years and threw the ball late on several play action passes where Smith was wide open with a double move.

Lessons Don’t Come In A Linear Procession

Steve Smith didn't validate my notions until his third year - six months after evaluating Austin Collie. Photo by J. Handleman.
Steve Smith didn’t validate my notions until his third year – six months after evaluating Austin Collie. Photo by J. Handleman.

You would think I would have learned that Collie could hang in the NFL as a starter if I saw similar qualities from Steve Smith (.PDF Sample) as a top-3 receiver in my 2007 class. However, the validation of these points came too late for Collie because I produced my evaluation of Collie about 6-8 months prior to the 2009 season – the Pro Bowl year where Smith caught 107 passes for 1220 yards and 7 touchdowns.

That’s the fascinating thing about life – it doesn’t take a linear path (no matter how much we want to torture ourselves to make it so). Where these lessons began to take an applicable shape for me was in 2011 with Vincent Brown. The San Diego State receiver scored an 89 in my evaluation process – only A.J. Green (98) and Greg Salas (90) where higher.

I thought Salas had a ruggedness that was similar to Jordy Nelson and Michael Irvin. However, he didn’t show that same skill early in St. Louis and it cost him. A theory I have with Salas – beyond his own performance – is that once a player gets to the NFL and has NFL tape, teams rely more on the NFL scouts and the college book gets less weight. While the case doesn’t look good for Salas I think there’s still an element of his NFL story where the jury is out.

It also means we’re all still deliberating on Vincent Brown. He flashed excellent skill as a rookie, missed most of the year with an ankle injury last year, and has now earned a lot of praise from Chargers’ head coach Mike McCoy for his routes. Brown’s skill to get into optimal position combined with his hands makes him a player capable of earning time on the field, but he reason he fits so well with Philip Rivers is the fact he’s physical enough to make the Steve Smith-style money plays.

Rivers is a fearless passer. He has good timing over the middle, but tends to loft the ball on deeper routes. This means we see more plays where the receiver has to win the ball rather than run under it.

Rivers had this type of player with Vincent Jackson – a huge, downfield bully of a receiver who could win in tight coverage. Danario Alexander has some of this in his game, but has to stay healthy. Brown isn’t that big, but like Derrick Mason or Henry Ellard of years past, he has the skills to win the football in the air on intermediate and deep routes where timing doesn’t have to be pitch-perfect.

Here’s my pre-draft report on Vincent Brown. It’s a culmination of lessons I’ve been learning with the likes of Collie and Smith. Regardless of his future performance, I saw enough of him as a rookie to know that he has starter skill if he plays to his ability.

For analysis of skill players in this year’s draft class, download the 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio available now. Better yet, if you’re a fantasy owner the 56-page Post-Draft Add-on comes with the 2013 RSP at no additional charge and available for download within a week after the NFL Draft. Best, yet, 10 percent of every sale is donated to Darkness to Light to combat sexual abuse. You can purchase past editions of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio for just $9.95 apiece.

Reads Listens Views 7/19/2013

Geno Smith reminds me of Tony Romo. I see it, but I also see the other players on that spectrum of style. See below. Photo by Football Schedule.
Check out Scott Kacsmar’s article on Tony Romo. See below. Photo by Football Schedule.

Thank You

I’m fortunate to be at the intersection of two great football communities: fantasy football and draft evaluation. On the whole, the writers I interact with are knowledgeable, hard working, and humble. So it’s an honor when I see these members of my audience also participating in contests like the Jadeveon Clowney event this month.

If you haven’t purchased the 2013 RSP, remember that it also includes the post-draft. If you are new to the blog, here’s a little more about the RSP and some sample material. Remember, 10 percent of each purchase is donated to Darkness to Light to providing training to communities to prevent and address the epidemic of sexual abuse.

Views – Chad and Terrell Would Fit In Well

[youtube=http://youtu.be/0bomkgXeDkE]

Football Reads

Views – Why We Should Build Wooden Skyscrapers (Awesome)

[ted id=1785]

Non-Football Reads

Listens – The Hippest Version of Twinkle Twinkle Little Star You’ll Hear

[youtube=http://youtu.be/j2DEfTzb9zc]

These four have made a lot of great recording artists sound good in their time. You’d probably only know them if you were a student at the University of Miami. Glad I had that chance. The final movement is a lot of fun. You’re little kid will dig it.

Listens – The Saxophonist Who Kept Coltrane’s Interest Until Trane Died 

http://youtu.be/Ag1uKsbpKqA

The saxophonist is John Gilmore, who is best known for playing with Sun Ra. If you don’t know who Sun Ra is, you’ll either love or hate his music. This setting is a much more straight ahead gig with Art Blakey. Many people didn’t know Gilmore gigged with the Messengers. If you listen to Trane then you can hear the Gilmore influence in the solo.

Listens – On The Couch w/Bloom, Cosell, and Yours Truly

In This Episode: Sigmund Bloom, Matt Waldman, and Greg Cosell (NFL Films) discuss the NFL. Topics Include – the decline of the importance of the running back in the NFL, the limited sample size of read option quarterbacks, how Tom Brady will adjust to the loss of Aaron Hernandez, whats next for Sam Bradford, Jay Cutler, and Andy Dalton, differing opinions on LeVeon Bell, plus more!