Posts tagged Matt Waldman RSP

Reads Listens Views 4/18/2014

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Photo by Ashley Bovan. Solo by James Marshall Hendrix.
Photo by Ashley Bovan. Solo by James Marshall Hendrix.

Fran Duffy’s Scouting Notebooks, Voodoo Chile Trip, Trio of Doom, and Solar in the Dark

What is Reads Listens Views?

If you’re new to the Rookie Scouting Portfolio blog, welcome.  I post links on Friday to content I’m saving for later consumption. You may not like everything listed here, but you’re bound to like something.

Listens/Views

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Love videos like this, although I’ve heard better Hendrix versions and I can’t talk about this song without sharing this version . . .

[youtube=http://youtu.be/OEJh2FFUUoU]

Download the 2014 Rookie Scouting Portfolio

Friday’s are also my chance to thank you for reading my work, encourage you to follow the RSP blog, and download the Rookie Scouting Portfolio publication.

The RSP is available every April 1 for download. This year’s RSP is nearly 300 pages in the draft guide section and filled with analysis of  164 skill position prospects that has earned a loyal following:

  • Rankings
  • Draft history analysis
  • Overrated/Underrated analysis
  • Multidimensional player comparisons
  • Individual skills analysis by position

You can learn more about the RSP here. If you want to see samples of the play-by-play notes I take to write the analysis, you can find them here. If you want to know what my readers say about it, look here. If you want a quick video tour, here it is:

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fRsQwtyOCDM&feature=share]

If you don’t have time to look into details, know that once you look through the RSP, there will be no question in your mind that I do the work, that I have a plan about the work that I do, and that you get more than your money’s worth. It’s why more and more draftniks every spring can’t wait until April 1.

If you think that’s a ton, you ain’t seen nothing. When you purchase the RSP, you also get a free post-draft publication that’s available for download a week after the NFL Draft. Fantasy football owners tell me all the time that this alone is worth the price.

Best yet, 10 percent of each RSP sale is donated to Darkness to Light, a non-profit devoted to preventing and addressing sexual abuse through community training in schools, religious groups, and a variety of civic groups across the U.S.

Here is what the RSP donated to D2L this year. According to D2L, the RSP’s 2013 donation amount was enough to train 250 adults in communities across the country.

Pre-order the 2014 RSP and/or download past versions of the publication (2006-2012).

In Case You Missed It/Coming Soon

Reads (Football)

Listens

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 Reads (Life In General)

Listens

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Futures: Alabama MLB C.J. Mosely

0 Comments read 2014 NFL Draft, Players

Mosely

Seeking an lesson in playing middle linebacker? C.J. Mosely’s game is instructive. 

Futures: Alabama MLB C.J. Mosely

By Matt Waldman

He can’t catch, he’s had numerous injuries, and a well-executed read-option keeper can trip him up. But if these are the only damning aspects to middle linebacker C.J. Mosely’s game, and his injuries don’t present a long-term concern, there aren’t 10 players in this class I want more.

Mosely’s game is instructive to playing middle linebacker:

  • Addressing run gaps to help teammates
  • Beating lead blockers and attacking the ball carrier
  • Strong pass coverage—man and zone
  • Making good pre-snap diagnosis
  • Finishing plays

He’s not the best middle linebacker you’ll ever see, but the Alabama defender should become a stalwart for an effective NFL unit. The more I study middle linebackers, the more I see the commonalities between them and their natural adversary the running back.

I have always ascribed multiple definitions for a running back’s vision:

  • The patience to allow the play to develop as close as possible to its design.
  • The skill to find and anticipate the creases as they open.
  • The ability to see and set up unblocked defenders at the other side of these creases.
  • The peripheral vision and/or understanding of the opponents’ tendencies to identify the cutback lanes and the timing to exploit them.
  • The judgment to know when to be patient and when to be decisive.
  • The maturity to understand when to resist the urge for the big play in lieu of the short, punishing play that moves the chains.

The last two are of monumental importance if a runner wants to succeed in the NFL. And in many ways, all of these points of vision apply to a good middle linebacker like Mosely. Read the rest at Football Outsiders.

A Game of Inches: The Talent Gap By the Numbers

0 Comments read 2014 NFL Draft, Matt Waldman, RSP Publication

Based on these numbers, less than 1 percent of the seniors playing college football will ever earn a second contract in the NFL.

Greg Linton, an NFL agent, shared this on Twitter this morning. There’s another salient point embedded in this data that goes beyond the message of “get your education.” It’s how data displays the differences in execution. It is a great way to see the differences between “good” college football and “good” NFL football.

Only the top 6.5 percent of all high school players compete at the college level. It means they are in the 93.5 percentile of all high school players. Likewise, only the top 1.6 percent of all college players enter the NFL–the 98.4 percentile. And that second NFL contract–the seal of approval that you’re a good NFL player–is reserved for less than one percent of all college players; the 99.06 percentile.

Viewing the numbers in this fashion, it doesn’t look like a big difference between the 93.5 percentile, the 98.4 percentile, and the 99.06 percentile. You’d be mistaken.

This may be a stretch for some–and it certainly isn’t scientific–but for the sake of entertainment, let’s presume that these percentiles were a reflection of a player’s success rate executing plays on a per snap basis. I understand this is not exact, but I think there’s enough to this idea to suspend disbelief long enough to make an overall point that is worthwhile.

The table below shows the amount of errors–or bad plays–that a player would commit over the course of a million plays based these percentiles that represent their standing as a college (93.5 percentile), NFL prospect (98.4 percentile), or NFL vet earning a second contract (99.07 percentile).

Plays Percentile Good Plays Errors/Bad
1,000,000 0.935 935,000 65,000
1,000,000 0.984 98,4000 16,000
1,000,000 0.9906 99,0600 9,400

The difference between 65,000 errors and 16,000 errors is massive and that’s just the gap between a college player and NFL prospect who might last three years in the league. The NFL vet who earns a second deal commits 42.3 percent fewer errors than the prospect ad 86.6 fewer errors than the college player. And I’m talking about the average player on a team, which includes the best and the worst players on each squad–forget about the stars!

Even these numbers are a little harder to grasp, because we’re looking at a million plays. We won’t see any player execute that many over the course of a career–as hard as Brett Favre, George Blanda and Bruce Matthews tried.

So let’s break it down to plays in a season. Let’s estimate a player sees 40 plays a game for 16 games. I know this isn’t completely accurate for the college game or certain players in the NFL. However, it’s a more understandable sample size of plays for a season that equates to 640 plays.

Now look at the differences in errors/bad plays–it’s a lot easier to grasp.

Player Plays Percentile Good Plays Errors
College 640 0.935 598.4 41.6
NFL Prospect 640 0.984 629.76 10.24
NFL Vet 640 0.9906 633.984 6.016

The difference between 10 and 6 egregious errors per season per player is staggering–and that’s the difference between a young NFL player and a veteran. Those 41.6 errors per season for the average college player just doesn’t cut it for the pro game. This chart hints at why NFL athleticism is a difference maker in the college game even if the NFL skill and understanding of football isn’t always present.

In contrast, the gap between a prospect and vet is much smaller from an athletic standpoint, but the differences in errors is still large based on knowledge of technique, strategy, and consistency of execution. Again, this is hypothesizing that we’re discussing the average player at each level.

Now think about the top four players on each team–Pro-Bowl caliber players–that’s 128 players in the NFL. These players are in the 99.88 percentile in all of football–high school, college, and NFL. Using a sample of 640 plays in a 16-game season they would commit .75 egregious errors.

This seems hard to believe. In fact, you can see where this theory begins to crack at the seams because even All-Pros make mistakes multiple times in a season. However, how many of them are solely their fault and not something that can be explained by the error of a teammate? Not as many as you might think.

I wouldn’t throw out this examination because the numbers aren’t exactly right. The point is still a good one: The gap in talent is about consistency of execution and it requires knowledge, skill, and focus as the gap in athleticism narrows.

For analysis of skill players in this year’s draft class, download the 2014 Rookie Scouting Portfolio. Better yet, if you’re a fantasy owner the 56-page Post-Draft Add-on comes with the 2012 – 2014 RSPs at no additional charge and available for download within a week after the NFL Draft. Best, yet, 10 percent of every sale is donated to Darkness to Light to combat sexual abuse. You can purchase past editions of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio for just $9.95 apiece.

Gray Matter: RBs Andre Williams and Anthony Dixon

0 Comments read 2014 NFL Draft, Players, Running Back
Anthony Dixon isn't the athlete Andrew Williams is, but he has shown more as a football player. Photo by Jeffery Beall.
Anthony Dixon isn’t the athlete Andre Williams is, but he has shown more as a football player. Photo by Jeffery Beall.

I see the good from Andre Williams, but will he show it often enough on the field? 

I’m often asked about my “misses.” Who were they? What did I learn?

The answers aren’t always as simple as the questions.  Sometimes the outcome is wrong, but the process is right.

Cincinnati running back Cedric Peerman hasn’t shown me anything contrary to my take on the rare occasions he gets to carry the football. The fact that Jay Gruden admitted that they didn’t know what they had in Peerman adds to my take that Peerman could have developed into a starter if given a true shot.

Sometimes the arriving at a decisive take on a player isn’t incredibly difficult–even with a defined methodology. There are prospects whose tape is enough of a mixed bag when it comes to pivotal components of their games that determine which examples should carry more weight is a tough call.

While it’s natural to worry about being “right” or “wrong” with the call, what I learn from the players who fall into the grey areas of my process helps me tighten it over time. These adjustments are more gradual than immediate, but the potential lessons of these difficult evaluations hold great value.

This isn’t what some people want to hear. They want immediate answers and instant adjustments.

I’m not into the fly-by-night; I’m an aspiring craftsman. I’m hoping there will be many years ahead of valuable lessons based on mistakes.

One of my not-so-simple misses is Anthony Dixon, one of my favorite backs in the 2010 NFL Draft. The runner from Mississippi State  is a bruiser with the footwork and agility of a runner 20 pounds lighter than his 6’0″, 233-lb. frame.

[youtube=http://youtu.be/RjPpHxlSThk]

A sixth-round pick of the 49ers, Dixon has hung onto a roster spot thanks to his special teams play. However, the 26-year-old Dixon is unlikely to earn significant time as an NFL starter after failing to push Frank Gore for time on the San Francisco depth chart early in his career. One of the reasons that Dixon didn’t earn more chances is that he did not display consistent maturity as a decision maker.

The coaching staff expected its young runner to lower the pads and work downhill, but Dixon either bounced too many runs outside or displayed too much hesitation on plays designed to go between the tackles. The early take on Dixon is that he lacked the balance of decision-making maturity and creativity to solidify a spot in the offensive rotation early in his career.

Dixon has been pegged as a special teams performer and fullback-running back `tweener. He was a solid fit for Jim Harbaugh’s gap-style ground game, which wasn’t the predominant system during the Mike Singletary era. On rare occasions, fans saw Dixon earning time in Harbaugh’s backfield as big-lead closer.

Because Joique Bell, Alfred Morris, Knowshon Moreno, and Pierre Thomas aren’t extraordinary physical talents and they’re still making an impact ahead of more touted prospects, I wouldn’t be surprised if there’s more to come with Dixon’s story than what I mentioned above.

Even so, there is something I should have taken into account in hindsight: the Mississippi State ground game. The Bulldogs incorporated a lot misdirection with its run game in a gap-style offense: shotgun draws, counter plays, and traps.

[youtube=http://youtu.be/zvHPZi7_apk]

Although Dixon communicated a sound understanding of his keys at the line of scrimmage when I talked with him about his favorite plays at Mississippi State, the Bulldogs offense didn’t require sophisticated decisions from its backs. Dixon had to show just enough patience for one set of blocks to develop and make that destination of the run work. In most cases, Dixon’s physical skills were enough to earn yards after contact if Mississippi State failed to open wide lanes for its back.

Recently I went back to watch some of Dixon’s tape. I didn’t have the same impression of Dixon during my post-mortem analysis. The athleticism, power, and agility are all still there. However, I now see how the Mississippi State offense inflated my take of Dixon’s vision.

Where I missed on Dixon was his decision-making coming out school. Where I still may hit is his athleticism, burst, and balance if the decision-making has improved.

Funny enough, I wrote  90 percent of this piece and banked it in my archives well before Dixon earned a contract with the Bills and Mike Mayock announced his love for Boston College running back Andre Williams.

Williams is a big back like Dixon, but his evaluation has some difficult moments. The 6’0″, 227-pound Williams stars in a gap style ground game that loves to run traps, counters, and power. Both runners have enough quickness to move the chains, but neither shows the NFL speed to defeat a good angle from a defender in pursuit.

What adds complexity to this comparison contrast is that Dixon displays better athleticism on the field than Williams despite the fact that the Boston College back had an impressive combine. Williams’ physical skills don’t show up with the frequency that I expect from the top prospects at the position.

The professional market is too saturated with running backs who show more on a consistent basis for me to have as positive of a take on Williams as Mayock.

Even so, I like to explore the grey matter of my evaluations. Here are three plays that reveal glimpses of Williams’ best.

Power

Pair Williams in a power running game and the Boston College starter can get the job done. Here’s a 13-yard gain from a 23 personnel I-formation run against nine defenders in the box. The Eagles pulls its left guard to the right side and leads Williams to the hole behind his fullback.

[youtube=http://youtu.be/1lafGKn45VA?start=105]

Williams demonstrates some press-and-cut ability on this play. Ideally, I’d want to see Williams approach the hole outside the guard’s shoulder and then cut inside the guard at the line of scrimmage to exploit the hole opening to the inside.

Instead, Williams is positioned in the middle of the guard’s back. Yet it’s still a good enough spot for him to press the lane with a jab step to the outside shoulder and cut to the inside.

WilliamsA1

This move compels the defender on the pulling guard to peek outside and a beat late as Williams enters the hole inside the guard.

WilliamsA2

Williams gains three yards untouched through the hole and has some momentum to face the safety coming down hill and poised to deliver a shot to the runner’s legs. Williams’ knee level is high enough to repel the contact, maintain his balance, and earn another six yards before finishing the play coming over top of the defensive back making the tackle.

This is one of the better runs I’ve seen from Williams against contact where he doesn’t have a massive down-hill head start. Unfortunately, there aren’t many of them–even this one play doesn’t tip the scales for me over the wealth of plays where he’s unable to bully in tight spaces.

Here’s another nice press and cut from Williams from a heavy I-formation set.

[youtube=http://youtu.be/1lafGKn45VA?start=137]

Note the direction of the defense’s helmets after he executes the press and cutback. If Williams can make these cuts with this level of patience, agility, and burst more often in the NFL than he did at Boston College it will force me to re-examine how a small sample of plays can carry more weight despite being the exception to the rule in a player’s portfolio.

WilliamsA3

Speed

Williams’ difficulty opening his stride to reach that extra gear he showed at the combine limits his upside in the NFL. Here’s a play that would be a much bigger gain if Williams had elite speed for the NFL game. However, it’s a good example of enough speed to produce as a starter in the league.

[youtube=http://youtu.be/1lafGKn45VA?start=49]

As Williams reaches the flat, the safety has a bead on the running back. In this situation, Williams opens his stride enough that the safety cannot reach the runner at the eight-yard mark of the run.

Williams out runs this angle of the defender and earns another 16 yards beyond that safety’s original target trajectory.  If  not for the cornerback, Williams is off to the races.

But at this point, I have to stick with my take that Williams in pads doesn’t match his exploits in shorts. If not for Mike Mayock’s take likely reflecting the tenor of the NFL, I would have expected the Boston College starter to get a call in April as a late draft pick.

In the hyper-competitive world of professional sports and the perception-fueled environment of bloggers and fans, my assessment doesn’t sound complimentary. However, I remind you that for a player with an excellent mental-emotional approach to his career, the NFL Draft is only the beginning.

If the Boston College runner can demonstrate these skills with greater consistency, I’ll be eating my words. Of course, lessons like these offer plenty of nutritional value and build stronger bones for evaluation processes.

 For analysis of skill players in this year’s draft class, download the 2014 Rookie Scouting Portfolio. Better yet, if you’re a fantasy owner the 56-page Post-Draft Add-on comes with the 2012 – 2014 RSPs at no additional charge and available for download within a week after the NFL Draft. Best, yet, 10 percent of every sale is donated to Darkness to Light to combat sexual abuse. You can purchase past editions of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio for just $9.95 apiece.

2013 RSP Post-Draft Video Tour

0 Comments read RSP Publication

“I first experienced the RSP last year and after reading several pages, you got me for only god knows how much time you’ll be doing it. I’d prepay this for the next ten years easily. I mean it in the most sincere way, this has become my most anticipated read of the year and once again, I know it will be awesome.” – Dom

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T8f06wrsHVI&feature=share]

New to the RSP? Wondering what’s inside the RSP Post-Draft and how to use it? Take the video tour.

  • How the Pre-draft and Post-Draft work together.
  • Tour of the tiered cheat sheet. .
  • The use of ADP values and RSP values to help readers maximize dynasty draft value.

Download the RSP now and I’ll email you a week after the NFL Draft to let you know when the Post-Draft is ready for download. The publications are a package deal at $19.95.

I have readers tell me all the time that they would pay $19.95 just for the Post-Draft publication. I sell this as a package deal only because the pre-draft is just as important long-term as the post-draft. One feeds the other.

 

Reads Listens Views 4/11/14

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Portrait of the anonymous NFL executive. Photo by Sarah DeForche.
Portrait of the anonymous NFL executive. Photo by Sarah DeForche.

 This week’s RLV: Best commercial ever, The Chicken, The Bag Man, and a freudian slip. 

What is Reads Listens Views?

If you’re new to the Rookie Scouting Portfolio blog, welcome.  I post links on Friday to content I’m saving for later consumption. You may not like everything listed here, but you’re bound to like something.

Views -Best Commercial Ever

[youtube=http://youtu.be/uaWA2GbcnJU]

No contest. I might start watching this one daily.

Download the 2014 Rookie Scouting Portfolio

Friday’s are also my chance to thank you for reading my work, encourage you to follow the RSP blog, and download the Rookie Scouting Portfolio publication.

The RSP is available every April 1 for download. This year’s RSP is nearly 300 pages in the draft guide section and filled with analysis of  164 skill position prospects that has earned a loyal following:

  • Rankings
  • Draft history analysis
  • Overrated/Underrated analysis
  • Multidimensional player comparisons
  • Individual skills analysis by position

You can learn more about the RSP here. If you want to see samples of the play-by-play notes I take to write the analysis, you can find them here. If you want to know what my readers say about it, look here. If you want a quick video tour, here it is:

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fRsQwtyOCDM&feature=share]

If you don’t have time to look into details, know that once you look through the RSP, there will be no question in your mind that I do the work, that I have a plan about the work that I do, and that you get more than your money’s worth. It’s why more and more draftniks every spring can’t wait until April 1.

If you think that’s a ton, you ain’t seen nothing. When you purchase the RSP, you also get a free post-draft publication that’s available for download a week after the NFL Draft. Fantasy football owners tell me all the time that this alone is worth the price.

Best yet, 10 percent of each RSP sale is donated to Darkness to Light, a non-profit devoted to preventing and addressing sexual abuse through community training in schools, religious groups, and a variety of civic groups across the U.S.

Here is what the RSP donated to D2L this year. According to D2L, the RSP’s 2013 donation amount was enough to train 250 adults in communities across the country.

Pre-order the 2014 RSP and/or download past versions of the publication (2006-2012).

Coming Soon

  • The 2014 RSP Writers Project -Sometime after the draft, we’ll get this rolling.
  • Kapri Bibbs: Good vs. Great Vision
  • On the Couch w/Sigmund Bloom – Bloom, Lammey, and I will talk about the RB class.
  • No-Huddle Series: Wisconsin RB James White

Reads (Football)

Views

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I couldn’t have written a more appropriate freudian slip to come from Fox News.

Reads (Life In General)

Listens

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Futures: Pitt DT Aaron Donald

0 Comments read 2014 NFL Draft, Players
Aaron Donald is as promising as Geno Atkins Photo by Ashley and Matthew Hemingway.
Aaron Donald is as promising as Geno Atkins Photo by Ashley and Matthew Hemingway.

I’m not a betting man, but if I were, Aaron Donald would be one of two players in this deep draft class that I’d have no reservations betting on as a future star.

Futures: Pittsburgh DT Aaron Donald

By Matt Waldman


Help Wanted: Football Players

Candidates must demonstrate efficiency and productivity while performing in a fast-paced, stressful environment. Speed, quickness, and strength required. Toughness and quick thinking are essential. Prototypical height and weight for role preferred, but will consider candidates with exceptional compensatory skills. Major college program is a plus. Relocation required. Job entails travel for 50-65 percent of work year. Submit a portfolio of work, at least five professional and five character references, and a working phone number to NFL.com. Eligible candidates should expect to receive a call in May for a summer training program at one of our 32 branches.

If only it was as easy as it looks on the page.

I don’t get to visit often, but I’m a big fan of The Sideline View. Lance Zierlein, John Harris and the rest of the team provide the goods on the game. As I examined the first round of Zierlein’s latest mock draft, it struck me that for a class noted for its depth of talent, there are few “safe” picks.

Greg Robinson, Khalil Mack, Ryan Shazier, Eric Ebron, Dee Ford, Johnny Manziel, and Anthony Barr have a ton of upside, but they are just a small list of the top 50 players on draft boards with notable shortcomings. However, most starters in the NFL have flaws and the NFL knows that the upside it covets from these headliners outweighs the risks.

Some of these flaws have nothing to do with a player’s work on the field. Jadeveon Clowney and C.J. Mosley are two prospects with unquestioned skill, but rumors about Clowney’s work ethic (which I think are questionable in origin) and Mosley’s injury history generate lingering questions about them fulfilling their vast promise.

My short list of safe picks — barring issues of character and injury — includes Jake Matthews, Sammy Watkins, Teddy Bridgewater, Odell Beckham, Mike Evans, and Darqueze Dennard. I am confident that barring catastrophic injury, these six players will at least provide 6-to-8 years of serviceable work as starters in the NFL.

If I were a betting man, there are only two players in Zierlein’s mock draft that I’d wager on developing into Pro Bowl players. The one from the above list of players is Watkins, and the other is Aaron Donald. Read the rest at Football Outsiders.

Boiler Room: Nebraska WR Quincy Enunwa

0 Comments read 2014 NFL Draft, Players, RSP Boiler Room Videos (Short Form), Wide Receiver
Enunwa inspires reflection about innocence and experience. Photo by Craig Chandler.
Enunwa inspires reflection about innocence and experience. Photo by Craig Chandler.

Ever think about how you’ve changed over the years? What did the “old you” think, say, and do versus the “new you?” This is something I think about all the time when I’m studying football players.

I remember the first time I saw Terrell Owens as a rookie. He wasn’t the rocked-up, raging force of productivity and insecurity that he became, but the quickness, balance, and power was all there.  He caught a hitch in the left flat, gave a little shake to avoid the corner, spun off a linebacker’s hit, stiff-armed a safety, and carried two more defenders for the first down.

It only took one play and I was sold.

That was the old me–a fan, not a football writer. I’d see something spine-tingling from a player and I’d allow that feeling to wash over me and permeate my entire take. Now, I’m more circumspect about what immediately impresses me.

However, it’s not always a good thing. We allow our experiences to filter out too much of what’s wondrous and joyful about the world. Sometimes those inexperienced takes get to the core truth in ways that more experienced viewpoints can over analyze and discard. There’s something to maintaining (or maybe the more accurate word is “re-cultivating”)  a certain amount of innocence to your internal viewfinder.

Nebraska wide receiver Quincy Enunwa inspires this kind of reflection on my end. When I first watched the Cornhusker wideout tear through a secondary with the ball in his hands, I saw flashes of Terrell Owens. Then I saw Enunwa catch–and drop–the ball with hands techniques that need enough work to have concerns about his game and the ambivalence returns.

Although my RSP ranking of Enunwa reflects more of my ambivalence about his NFL potential, this Boiler Room post encapsulates the receiver’s upside with a 35-yard gain through the  Purdue Boilermakers’ defense in 2013.

When I witness moments like these,  I imagine if I was working for an NFL organization creating cut-ups for a personnel director would I include this play as part of a cut-up of highlights? The Boiler Room Series is focused on prospects that I expect to be drafted, and often before the fourth round.

With the depth of this wide receiver class, Enunwa is a player I expect to go after the fourth round. However, I know there are fans of his potential and today I’m going to show you a play that you won’t find on a highlight reel on the Internet.

He gained 35 on a 3rd and 5 pass with 2:37 in the half from a 2×2 receiver 10 personnel shotgun set. He was the outside right receiver running a stop route, but he spotted the opening behind the shallow defender and drifted the inside. Enunwa caught the ball over his back shoulder with his hands close to his body just outside the right hash. Good adjustment and catch with his hands. The rest is pure viewing candy (click the enlarge arrow at the bottom right of the video to see this at full size).

[wpvideo rmpFk61f]

Enunwa packs enough athleticism and skill as a ball carrier on a run across the width of the field to evoke memories of a young Terrell Owens or Dez Bryant: burst, jukes, a hurdle, a spin, power, balance, and a couple of stiff arms. It’s a play you don’t easily forget.

If anything, it’s a play that is very difficult to balance with Enunwa’s flaws:

Enunwa doesn’t catch the ball with his fingertips. But man, you saw him tear through Purdue, right? 

Enunwa isn’t sharp enough with his turns. Dude, just get him the ball and he’ll wreak havoc just like that catch over the middle at Purdue 

Enunwa has difficulty tracking short passes. Screw the verticals, just feed him the ball with a running start in the shallow zone and he’s money! 

 The innocent football fan in me says Enunwa will be a good NFL starter. The experienced football writer says Enunwa might be a good NFL starter if he improves his overall game, but it’s far from a guarantee. The older–and maybe wiser–analyst says Enunwa can help a team immediately as part of a starting rotation, but if he’s going to reach his potential as player difficult to stop on every down he has a lot of work ahead.

But Matt, did you see Enunwa . . . 

For analysis of skill players in this year’s draft class, download the 2014 Rookie Scouting Portfolio. Better yet, if you’re a fantasy owner the 56-page Post-Draft Add-on comes with the 2012 – 2014 RSPs at no additional charge and available for download within a week after the NFL Draft. Best, yet, 10 percent of every sale is donated to Darkness to Light to combat sexual abuse. You can purchase past editions of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio for just $9.95 apiece.

2014 Rookie Scouting Portfolio Video Tour

0 Comments read 2014 NFL Draft, RSP Publication

“I truly think the RSP is the best draft resource money can buy.” -Ryan Lownes, Draft Analyst for DraftBreakdown.com

[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E0Z7P_15wdc&w=420&h=315]

New to the RSP? Wondering what it looks like? Above is a 30-minute tour. At the bottom is a shorter tour of the publication:

  • What’s inside.
  • How to navigate it.
  • An explanation of the scoring.
  • How it all fits together as a concept.

Like what you see? Download the 2014 Rookie Scouting Portfolio now . Remember, you also get the post-draft publication free, which I upload one week after the NFL Draft and contains revised rankings based on draft position, team fit, and talent. You also get mock draft data and value analysis based on these early drafts.

Remember, 10 percent of each sale goes to Darkness to Light to help prevent and/or address sexual abuse in communities across the country.

Short Tour 

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Boiler Room: Utah TE Jake Murphy

0 Comments read 2014 NFL Draft, Tight End
Photo by John Martinez Paviliga.
Photo by John Martinez Paviliga.

Utah’s Jake Murphy is a safe, late-round pick with upside when called upon to do more.

One of the challenges involved with player analysis is to be succinct with delivering the goods. As the author of an annual tome, I’m often a spectacular failure in this respect. A series I started last spring at the RSP blog to remedy it is The Boiler Room. 

I often see a play unfold while I’m studying a prospect that does a great job of encapsulating that player’s skills. When I witness these moments, I try to imagine if I was working for an NFL organization creating cut-ups for a personnel director would I include this play as part of a cut-up of highlights?

In every draft, there are players who lack the attention-grabbing athleticism and production to capture the attention of the media and draftniks, but have something to offer the NFL. In a draft as deep as this one, these players are late-round picks at best.

Jake Murphy is one of these prospects who might be off the public’s collective radar, but has potential value to an organization for his hands, athleticism, and special teams play. However, the tight end from Utah is 25 years old and it is a point that some draftniks will nitpick.

I only see the logic of lowering the value of a player if he has an early round grade and the expectation is for him to become a long-term starter. Correct me if I’m wrong, but not a lot of players earn second contracts with their original teams. The first contract is generally a deal of 2-4 years, the average lifespan of an NFL career.

If I were a GM, why would I sweat the age of a 25 year-old tight end? If he was 28, different story, but 25 is young enough that if he develops beyond expectation, he still has another 2-3 years of good production before thinking about athletic decline–and I’m not including the top athletes at this position who play into their mid-30s.

Murphy isn’t seen as a top athlete at the position, but his physical skills aren’t bad by any stretch of the imagination. His short shuttle was the second-best time for his position at the combine and his three-cone drill was fourth among participating tight ends. The potential to get off the line and change direction with suddenness is there and that’s good enough for a player of Murphy’s skills to threaten a seam and win in the short zone.

And Murphy’s skills are difficult to teach because despite lacking high-end tools, he integrates the tools he has in a way that some high-end athletes can never succeed in doing. The two plays below are good examples.

The first is a 3rd and 13 pass from the 16 of Colorado early in the first quarter. Murphy is next to the right tackle in a 2×1 receiver, 11 personnel pistol. The outside linebacker near the line of scrimmage is shaded outside and the safety is 10 yards deep, also with outside shade.  Murphy gets a clean release inside and executes a double move, forcing the safety to bite on the shallow stem of a stop-and-go that Murphy breaks to the inside for a touchdown catch.

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TXO3y5lXFlI&start=44&w=560&h=315]

There are a few things I like about Murphy’s performance on this play. Although the double move isn’t the best route I’ve seen, his footwork is precise and fluid. It’s a good sign that he can do more as a route runner. He also sinks his hips and turns his outside shoulder to sell the potential break on the stop route. This baits the safety to break outside.

A tight end with good feet and hip flexibility has the promise to develop into a good NFL route runner. What he showed here is a good reflection of what he did at the combine. He’s quick enough to do the job and savvy enough to trick an opponent.

Murphy finishes the play with a good catch of the target placed above his head. The athleticism and awareness of the reception is another thing I liked about this play. While the beaten safety tries to work back to the break to cut off the route, the other safety is approaching Murphy from the opposite side of the field.

Murphy extends for the ball, makes the catch, and spins inside to avoid the oncoming safety at the five. This is a good display of concentration and hand-eye coordination to make the play, gauge the oncoming defender and move to protect the ball.

The oncoming safety wraps Murphy, but the tight end drags the tackler across the goal line, earning the final three yards to the end zone standing up. Murphy avoids the potential for a collision, but also prepared for it with enough focus to still make the reception. This is the kind focus an NFL tight end has to display as a matter of routine.

Here is a reception in tight, physical coverage on 3rd and 9 (note that this is the second, third-down target I’m showing you–a good sign about Murphy’s reliability in the passing game) from a 1×3 receiver, 1o-personnel pistol. Murphy is the inside trips receiver on the left side of the formation. The safety is eight yards deep with a slight inside shade.

Murphy runs an eight-step stem and patters his feet into a turn on an in-cut. Not a great route by any means, but if there’s an aspect of tight end play that should improve with experience it’s running pass patterns.

Still, Murphy freezes the safety just enough with a small dip to the inside once he reaches  the top of his stem. It’s hard to catch, but it’s there. What’s difficult for a receiver to improve in his game is winning the ball in tight, physical coverage–and that is what comes next.

Murphy drifts to the first down marker after he breaks inside and makes the catch between both safeties. The tight end shields the trailing safety with his back and extends for the ball as the front side safety delivers a shot to Murphy’s chest.

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TXO3y5lXFlI&start=127&w=560&h=315]

The impact of the collision is strong enough to shake the trailing safety off Murphy’s back, but the tight end also has enough balance to bounce off this head-on collision, spin to the middle of the field, and gain another five yards the trailing safety drags Murphy to the turf by the legs.

It’s tough to teach a player how to adjust to the ball and withstand punishment. These two plays show Murphy getting it done. In addition to his special teams work, there are enough compelling reasons why I’d consider Murphy as a late-round pick.

I know he has a feel for the passing game, the focus and toughness to make plays if called off the bench, and potential to grow into a contributor in an offense. Even if he never earns that chance, the fact he has experience on kicks and demonstrates the skill to run and tackle means his downside is good enough to consider him. However, it’s the upside that would make me want to pick him.

 

For analysis of skill players in this year’s draft class, download the 2014 Rookie Scouting Portfolio – available now. Better yet, if you’re a fantasy owner the 56-page Post-Draft Add-on comes with the 2012 – 2014 RSPs at no additional charge and available for download within a week after the NFL Draft. Best, yet, 10 percent of every sale is donated to Darkness to Light to combat sexual abuse. You can purchase past editions of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio for just $9.95 apiece.