Posts tagged Matt Waldman RSP

Reads Listens Views 12/20/2013

0 Comments read Reads Listens Views
I’ve shown this before, but it’s worth seeing again: This is how big Africa is relative to the rest of the world.

This week’s RLV: Dexter Gordon, Doug Farrar on Blake Bortles, Mike Tanier’s All-Snyder Team, and our poet laureate on the President.  

If you’re new to the RSP blog, welcome to my weekend post Reads Listens Views. This is my chance to post links to articles, performances, and photos I’ve found in recent weeks that I want to share. Some of this content has to do with football, but most of it doesn’t. You might not like everything in this post, but chances are you’ll like something.

Listens – RIP Horace Silver

[youtube=http://youtu.be/yttc-i_vA8I]

Great jazz composer and I’m understating it. He was the equivalent of a gateway drug to get into the music.

Thanks

I have a great base of readers. For those of you new to the Rookie Scouting Portfolio, the publication is available every April 1. You can learn more about the RSP here. If you want to see samples of the play-by-play notes I take to write the analysis, you can find them here. And to download past versions of the publication (2006-2012), go here.

Remember, 10 percent of each sale is donated to Darkness to Light, a non-profit devoted to preventing and addressing sexual abuse through community training in schools, religious groups, and a variety of civic groups across the U.S. Here is what the RSP donated to D2L this year.  I have an announcement about the 2014 RSP in January. Stay tuned.

Listens – Smetena Die Moldau 

[youtube=http://youtu.be/gTKsHwqaIr4]

Not bad for a deaf man, eh?

Reads (Non-football)

Listens – I Know You Got Soul . . . 

[youtube=http://youtu.be/fUii3L4Fqok]

Views

Dolphins

Reads (Football)

Listens – Dexter Gordon

[youtube=http://youtu.be/7Msqw94XfKk]

No Huddle Series: Missouri WR L’Damien Washington

0 Comments read 2014 NFL Draft, Players, Wide Receiver
L'Damien Washington has the build and athleticism of A.J. Green, but he needs to go to finishing school to model this NFL star's game. Photo by Wade Rackley
L’Damien Washington has the build and athleticism of A.J. Green, but he needs to go to finishing school to model this NFL star’s game. Photo by Wade Rackley

The 2014 installment of this series begins with a rough around the edges receiver with the physical talents of A.J. Green and Justin Hunter.

The No Huddle Series is an on-field profile of prospects with the talent to develop into NFL contributors, but they are projected as talents with mid-to-late round draft grades. The 2014 installment of this series begins with Missouri’s L’Damien Washington, a rough around the edges receiver with the physical talents of A.J. Green and Justin Hunter. In the neighborhood of 6’5″, 204 lbs. and a stopwatch speed in the 40 around 4.35-4.4, there’s more to Washington than his Underwear Olympics portfolio that catches my attention.

Washington plays with reckless abandon, contributes on special teams, and despite gaps with his catching technique, he has good hands. If I’m a part of an organization that believes in targeting high-upside players that it can teach the skills to play the position – and knows without reservation that its coaches have the track record of developing said raw lumps of clay – Washington is exactly the type of player I’m targeting.

Athletic Grace And Focus

This touchdown on 1st and goal with 6:30 in the third quarter against Texas A&M is one of the best catches I have seen in college football this year.

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kG-tShgiIL0&?start=346w=560&h=315]

It requires watching the replays to get a true feel for how good this catch on the corner fade is. The extension to high-point the ball and get a foot in bounds is impressive, but it’s garden-variety athleticism for a top prospect at the position. What I love is the concentration. Watch cornerback get his hand on the ball just as Washington begins to secure the ball after the initial catch at the high point of the target.

The receiver never loses focus despite the defender forcing Washington to fight to secure the ball. This is something Washington has to do while in mid-turn to shield the ball from his opponent. There are a lot of impressive facets of athleticism, focus, and toughness at play here. The full extension, the hand strength, the turn, the boundary awareness, and even the awareness to wrap the arm around the ball after his bound rebounds off the turf are all displays of skills integration that is difficult to teach. A coach might be able to teach a receiver to each of these things separately, but to layer them into one play and deal with a defender touching the ball at the most vulnerable point of the catch in the process of executing this play is impressive.

Washington’s willingness to lay out for the ball isn’t a one-time display. Here is a 3rd-and-six slant with 2:25 in the half where he faces a cornerback playing tight to the line of scrimmage.

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kG-tShgiIL0&start=123w=560&h=315]

The first thing I like about this play is the break on the route. Washington is not a refined route runner at this stage of his career. I often see him raise his pads too soon on releases, which tips off his break, and I don’t see an urgency to his releases that will force a defender to bail deep and set up shorter breaks.

Washington can learn these skills. The athleticism is there and this play reveals a hint of it. Watch him take two small steps up field and explode inside with a hard break. It’s a miniscule part of this quick route, but there’s intensity and precision to the move that he needs to incorporate into other routes.

As the ball arrives, Washington extends his body parallel to the ground and makes a diving catch towards the oncoming safety at the first down marker. Although he traps the ball to his body, his hands make contact with the ball first and he has no fear of contact from the defensive back over top. Once again, you can’t teach a willingness to put your body in harm’s way. It’s something Washington and Green have in common.

This 37-yard gain against man coverage in the Florida game is an example of a decent release that Washington needs to build on. It’s a 1st and 10 play with 8:45 in the third quarter as the single receiver in a 3×1, 10 personnel shotgun set.

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uIngLBgVge4&?start=292w=420&h=315]

Washington and his quarterback set up a subtle double move on this play. The quarterback takes his drop looking to the trips receiver side as Washington gives a quick shoulder fake to the inside and then accelerates up the sideline. Although it doesn’t seem like much, Washington’s fake is quick and thorough enough to momentarily freeze the defender and it gives the receiver a step.

I like how Washington uses his inside arm to frame and enforce this separation from the trailing defender. The receiver catches the ball over his inside shoulder and turns inside the numbers with a nice dip to avoid the safety. Although he doesn’t break the tackle of the trailing cornerback, he drags the defender another five yards and maintains a grip on the ball as the Florida Gator swats at it relentlessly. Three years from now, Washington probably has an additional 5-10 pounds of muscle that will make this tackle even more difficult for a cornerback to make.

Press-Release Technique

Washington is willing to use his hands against press coverage, but his technique needs more refinement. Right now, it appears as if he doesn’t have a grasp of the variety of moves he can use and when to use them. Here’s a play against Florida where he turns an out into a streak and the play ends with the ball bouncing off his chest near the end line. Although I’ll talk about the end of this play in more detail, the first thing I want you to see is the initial release.

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uIngLBgVge4&?start=190w=420&h=315]

Watch the replay and you’ll see where Washington’s problems begin. When the defender presents an obstacle during the release, Washington doesn’t use his inside arm to work through the defender. Instead, he uses his right arm to cross over and make contact. This type of move compromises a receiver’s balance, slows his stride, and has no real strength behind it.

I wouldn’t be at all surprised to find out that Washington is right-handed and this move is a product of him not having release techniques ingrained into his game. It’s a reaction to the defender and the result is an awkward move that has little impact. In fact, the way Washington earns initial separation is with his left arm as he makes the break outside. But by the time Washington achieves this distance the route is breaking open late, the quarterback is under pressure, and Washington now has to run another route to work open.

This is why it’s so important for a player to have refined technique. Washington is tall, strong, and fast, but if he has to think about what to do rather than have practiced methods that are second-nature reactions, it hinders the execution of a play.

The second half of the play is worth discussing in theory despite the fact that Washington steps on the boundary well before he reaches the end zone on this route adjustment and a penalty would have nullified any catch he could have made. What I don’t like about the end of his play is Washington’s attempt to catch the ball over his shoulder rather than turn back to the ball and make an aggressive attempt to snare the target. It’s possible the velocity of the throw was hard to gauge and Washington makes the wrong call based on this factor, but it’s also a passive attempt to “receive” the ball rather than fight to “catch” it.

When the ball arrives, Washington still has to open his inside shoulder to the trailing defender and this gives the defender a lane to break up the target. If Washington turns to face the ball and tries to highpoint it, he has a better shot on this play. This play isn’t a result of Washington fearing contact, just not having a feel for what to do on the play.

This route against Texas A&M is another demonstration of a talented athlete in need of better release technique. Washington is the single receiver at the right numbers with the cornerback playing tight and with a slight shade to the outside of the receiver on this 2nd and 10 at the A&M 47 with 1:56 in the half.

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kG-tShgiIL0&?start=116w=560&h=315]

Washington takes an outside release, but the corner presses the receiver drives Washington too far outside. There’s no chance Washington gets down field in time to make a play on this ball.  If the receiver dips his outside shoulder away from the source of the press and drives through his release with the acceleration he’s capable of using, his position will force the defender to relinquish contact or incur a penalty.

Another technique would have been to rip through the contact, but Washington unintentionally sustains the contact. The Missouri receiver is still playing with the mindset that he’s strong enough to push a defender off him with raw strength and hasn’t mastered how to use leverage. This is a college football mindset of a big-time athlete. He needs to learn a professional mindset of winning against opponents who are athletically on a more even playing field.

I for one believe Washington can learn these skills. If he does, he could become a star. I’m talking optimum scenarios here. I think a more reasonable expectation for Washington is for him to develop into a starter in 3-4 years and provide a team 40-60 catches, 600-800 yards, and 5-7 touchdowns as a secondary option that can stretch the field the same way a healthy Sidney Rice does in Seattle.

For analysis of skill players in this year’s draft class, download the 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio.The 2014 RSP will available April 1 and if you pre-order before February 10, you get a 10 percent discount. Better yet, if you’re a fantasy owner the 56-page Post-Draft Add-on comes with the 2012 – 2014 RSPs at no additional charge and available for download within a week after the NFL Draft. Best, yet, 10 percent of every sale is donated to Darkness to Light to combat sexual abuse. You can purchase past editions of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio for just $9.95 apiece.

RSO Writer’s League Update: Playoffs

0 Comments read Matt Waldman
Danny Kelly has always been a Jamal Charles fan (who hasn't? Raiders fans, I imagine). Photo by Phillip Macgruder.
Bob Harris and Jamaal Charles? A winning combination. See below. Photo by Phillip Macgruder.

Congratulations to Bob Harris and Mike Clay, who will be playing in the championship game of the Reality Sports Online Writer’s League. Harris’ team, the fourth seed, was hot in the playoffs, averaging 150 points the past two weeks to defeat Jeff Tefertiller’s fifth seed team and then upset the top seeded squad of Jim Day with a 155-120 victory. Harris received 61 points from Jamaal Charles and received additional help from Danny Amendola’s a 25-point afternoon to out-point Day’s squad that didn’t get its typical advantage from Peyton Manning and Jimmy Graham.

Mike Clay, the No.2 seed, defeated Sigmund Bloom in the semifinals 135-100, thanks to a combined 57 points from Nick Foles and Indianapolis’ team defense. Bloom, who earned a combined 74 points from Shane Vereen and LeSean McCoy in Week 14 to defeat season points leader Matt Waldman in the quarterfinals, only saw this running back duo generate 18 points in the semis.

The tale of the tape for Clay and Harris’ teams is fascinating. Clay has tremendous depth at quarterback with Foles and Drew Brees while Harris is getting by with Matt Ryan and Ryan Fitzpatrick. Matt Forte and Danny Woodhead power Clay’s team at RB and Harris sports Charles and Knowshon Moreno. Clay has the advantage with receiver depth, but Harris’ team is capable of huge individual performances.

Good luck to Bob and Mike who will be competing for a $1000 purse that will be donated to the charity of their choice.

To learn more about the league and Reality Sports Online’s excellent concept, check out this page. In case you haven’t thought about it, I am getting paid to give them my endorsement. However, I don’t do this often – and I am contacted monthly with some kind of offer. RSO is something I truly value and I agreed to start a league and keep a monthly diary because I would have paid to start a league with this format if I knew about it before they reached out to me.

I’ll be keeping this monthly diary next year as well, because I believe in the concept. Stay tuned for opportunities to earn a discount for starting a league next year. In fact, to risk doing the wrong thing – Start your own league and get a discount when you use this coupon code: RSP20%OFF.

Futures – Intuition and Process: FSU RB Karlos Williams

0 Comments read 2014 NFL Draft, Players, Running Back
Predictably, Peterson was the type of player that could trigger your intuition with one play. But there are many others who do the same. Photo by xoque.
Predictably, Peterson was the type of player that could trigger your intuition with one play. But there are many others who do the same. Photo by xoque.

Futures: FSU RB Karlos Williams

by Matt Waldman

People love the idea of being one step ahead of everyone else. It’s why the question, “Who is a player you like in next year’s draft?” is one of the most common I receive.

I spend so much time studying the prospects most likely to declare for this year’s draft that I’m not devoting in-depth analysis to next year’s guys. I get why people want to know and I respect the curiosity, but I dislike this question.

My work is about intuition and process. The longer I do this work, the more I believe in striving for a balance between listening to that inner voice and still honoring the value of a process.

Sometimes you know the first time you lay eyes on a person that there’s something special there. I knew it the first time I saw Alicia Johnson. After our first conversation, I had this feeling of absolute certainty that I just met my future wife.

It was a beautiful moment that was equally terrifying. And why wouldn’t it be? If you have any shred of logic in your being, the idea of knowing something as a fact without having conscious knowledge of the facts is unsettling no matter how many times it occurs during your life.

But there’s a difference between crazy and stupid, so I dated Alicia 13 months before proposing marriage. I needed to know that this “certainty” I was experiencing wouldn’t reveal itself as temporary infatuation. I wanted to make sure that flash of knowledge was illuminating the true dynamics of our relationship and not blinding it.

I may be crazy, but I try to avoid stupidity when at all possible. While I fail often in this regard, marrying Alicia was one of the smartest decisions I’ve made in my life. We have been married four years and the love and underlying certainty that I felt on that first day I met her has never wavered.

I share this Hallmark moment because there are occasions where I have felt that same jolt of certainty when watching football players. Although the implications of meeting the love of your life and identifying a talented college prospect are quite different, that feeling of certainty about a player despite limited exposure to his game is often unsettling. Read the rest at Football Outsiders.

Reads Listens Views 12/13/2013

0 Comments read Reads Listens Views
Doug Marlette
And I went to the “U” and I’m a fan, so don’t write me Cane fans – the slime is everywhere.

Reads Listens Views – The No.1 Weekly Series from the Twitter Awards by a committee of one. Respect Miller . . . respect.

Listens – Rest In Peace Jim Hall, You Were a Stud

[youtube=http://youtu.be/70QOKDLrJq4]

Thanks

If you’re new to RLV, the RSP, or you looked at my new design and thought for a moment someone slipped LSD or PCP into your morning Joe, welcome. This is my weekly series at the Rookie Scouting Portfolio where I list photos, performances, lectures, and links to Internet content I read (or I’m saving to read soon). You may not like everything here, but you’re bound to like something.

It’s also my chance to thank you for visiting the Rookie Scouting Portfolio and purchasing my annual publication on rookie prospects at the offensive skill positions.

For those of you new to the Rookie Scouting Portfolio, the publication is available every April 1. You can learn more about the RSP here. If you want to see samples of the play-by-play notes I take to write the analysis, you can find them here. And to download past versions of the publication (2006-2012), go here.

Remember, 10 percent of each sale is donated to Darkness to Light, a non-profit devoted to preventing and addressing sexual abuse through community training in schools, religious groups, and a variety of civic groups across the U.S. I’ll have an announcement before the year is over about what the RSP donated to D2L as well as a plans for the 2014 RSP.

Listens

[youtube=http://youtu.be/WyK8fiVq4Qc]

This Week’s RSP Posts

Haven’t had a chance to see what’s new at the RSP this week? Here’s a quick run-down:

Ahead: Tomorrow’s Futures delves into the relationship between Intuition and Process when it comes to player evaluation, using one player for 2015’s class who I have a feeling could be special.

Views – Worth Sharing Again . . .

[youtube=http://youtu.be/8OEjYquyjcg]

Here’s a bit longer Cliff Notes version about plot of the movie.

[youtube=http://youtu.be/si8TAHFQvtk]

Go see it. It’s a downer, but it’s important to see.

Reads (Football)

  • Ben Tate: No Pain, No Gain – Enjoyable profile on the Texans runner who reveals how Gary Kubiak once threw Tate under the bus.
  • RGIII – A Victim of His Own Swagger? – H/T to FBG staffer Mark Wimer for sharing this one.
  • Film Room: Russell Wilson – Cian Fahey shows you why Wilson deserves to be in the MVP conversation.
  • The Rise of ACL Tears – Grantland’s piece on the ligament. I’m not usually interested in this topic at this level of depth, but it’s a well-done piece worth a read.
  • Why I Believe Jameis Winston’s Accuser – Quality read regardless of whether you believe the accuser or not. Don’t send your daughter to college without making sure she understands the dynamics of drinking culture and how to navigate it. Of course, I live in a city where the local government’s answer to rising teen age pregnancies was to build a daycare in the high school rather than allow the schools to educate on birth control. Yes, Athens has more in common with leaders of Third World nations they look down on than it realizes.

Views -David Simon at Festival of Dangerous Ideas

[youtube=http://youtu.be/DNttT7hDKsk]

Reads (Life Outside The Lines)

Listens – Hit Me Again, Jim . . .

[youtube=http://youtu.be/ZIq5w-NogWA]

RSP Rorschach No.1: Fitzgerald Toussaint

0 Comments read Matt Waldman
Fitzgerald Toussaint and the Michigan Wolverines offense gets to be part of the first RSP Rorschach Series. Photo by Adam Glanzman.
Fitzgerald Toussaint and the Michigan Wolverines offense gets to be part of the first RSP Rorschach Series. Photo by Adam Glanzman.

Some plays are like Rorschach inkblots because there’s no definitive answer to why they unfold the way they do. This new series examines plays that have more than one viable explanation and may be too difficult to draw a single conclusion. The fun part is that you have a voice in it.

RSP Rorschach No.1: Fitzgerald Toussaint

[youtube=http://youtu.be/hpdg_kz9RGA]

This is a two-yard gain on 1st and 10 with 2:01 in the first quarter from a 21 personnel set. It’s an offset I-formation with the fullback to the strong side and one receiver split to the weak side. Notre Dame is in a 4-3. Before the snap, the safety at the left hash creeps to linebacker depth over the receiver. Also note that the outside linebacker in the left flat takes a couple of steps towards the line of scrimmage as his safety reaches this depth.

At the snap, the line slants right and the fullback works across the formation to the left edge of the line. The outside linebacker executes a run blitz and the fullback is confronted with two choices: block the outside linebacker or attack the middle linebacker. The fullback chooses the middle linebacker, allows the outside linebacker to continue his blitz unimpeded, and Toussaint takes a path directly into the middle linebacker and falls forward for two yards.

Why did this play unfold as it did? Here are some of my thoughts. While I have my opinion that I like the most, I’m not sharing it. I want to hear what you think is the most viable of these theories. Have your own that’s not listed? Post it in the comments.

Theory 1: The Fullback Makes A Bad Choice

The fullback’s original assignment is the middle linebacker. If the outside linebacker doesn’t blitz, the fullback seals the middle linebacker inside and Toussaint bounces the play to the outside shoulder of the fullback.  But with the outside linebacker’s run blitz, there’s no outside line unless the fullback changes his plan and attacks this run blitz. In theory, this change would have given Toussaint a chance to bounce the play outside to the left flat where there’s a ton of room, a block by his wide receiver on the cornerback, and only a middle linebacker chasing Toussaint from behind.

Theory 2: The Left Guard Fails To Identify the Appropriate Linebacker Assignment

Watch the play unfold and the left guard works through the line of scrimmage and attacks the linebacker inside the right hash, allowing the linebacker in the middle to run free and occupy the lane this play is designed for Toussaint to attack. Was the linebacker inside the hash the “Mike” or was it the linebacker that makes the tackle? Did the guard attack the wrong defender? If he took on the linebacker just left of the hash, the fullback takes on the blitz from the outside linebacker, and the Toussaint has a lane inside for a bigger gain.

Theory 3: The Quarterback Fails To Identify The OLB Blitz

When the safety creeps to linebacker depth, this should be a pre snap indication that there’s a potential blitz from that side. Considering the alignment of the outside linebacker and the depth of the safety, it’s conceivable that the quarterback should have read the blitz and made one of any number of changes:

  • Shift the tight end to the opposite tackle and run the play so the tight end and fullback can account for the two linebackers.
  • Change the direction of the direction of the run to the strong side away from the blitz.
  • Change the play to a pass.

In theory, all three of these options have a better outcome than what actually happens.

So what do you think?

[polldaddy poll=7639925]

For analysis of skill players in this year’s draft class, download the 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio.The 2014 RSP will available April 1 and if you pre-order before February 10, you get a 10 percent discount. Better yet, if you’re a fantasy owner the 56-page Post-Draft Add-on comes with the 2012 – 2014 RSPs at no additional charge and available for download within a week after the NFL Draft. Best, yet, 10 percent of every sale is donated to Darkness to Light to combat sexual abuse. You can purchase past editions of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio for just $9.95 apiece.

RSP Flashback: Overrated (McFadden/Jones) – Underrated (Forte)

0 Comments read Players, RSP Publication, Running Back
The RSP is to draft analysis as Matt Forte is to NFL running backs - versatile, underrated, and appreciated by those in the know. Photo by John Martinez Pavliga.
The RSP is to draft analysis as Matt Forte is to NFL running backs – versatile, underrated, and appreciated by those in the know. Photo by John Martinez Pavliga.

The 2008 RB class was a defining moment for my development as a draft analyst.  The love for Darren McFadden was off the charts. Meanwhile there was a back toiling away in New Orleans who I thought was much better.

It was another lesson in sticking to what you see and explaining it all in detail. This time history was kind. Here were my pre-draft takes on Darren McFadden, Felix Jones, Mike Hart, Kevin Smith, and Matt Forte.

Overrated RB Prospects

Darren McFadden, Arkansas: McFadden might be the most difficult player I have evaluated for the RSP. His speed and acceleration are better than all but one back in this class. He also played productively during his career while coming off toe surgery and dealing with bruised ribs. When McFadden can run a play as designed, he can break it open for huge gains because of his elite speed. Although he doesn’t make strong lateral moves, he has the ability to bend a run in a direction while running at great speed. This is a rare ability, but it is still not as effective against a defense as a runner with sharp changes of direction.

The problem is this former QB repeatedly demonstrated noticeable deficiencies that I believe will prevent him from making a consistent impact as an NFL runner: falling backward when making direct contact against first and second level defenders because he runs with poor leverage; the tendency for his legs to go dead upon the initial wrap-up; lacking the ability to change direction with a hard plant and cut; impatience with his blockers; and poor ball protection techniques. Many people have compared McFadden to Eric Dickerson or Adrian Peterson, but the only thing McFadden currently shares with these two backs is his speed.

McFadden’s power is actually something worth calling into question. I am not skeptical of his strength and athleticism. He has plenty of both to be an elite NFL running back. The problem is his knowledge of how to use it. Any type of power you generate when it comes to delivering or deflecting a blow comes from the legs and hips. Not only do these body parts have to be strong, but they also need to be positioned well to transfer energy from your body to your target.

They explain this in more detail on shows that study the physics of martial arts—for example, National Geographic did a special where they hooked up UFC fighters like Randy Couture to sensors that measure force and flow of energy throughout the body. I know it seems a bit like a jump to apply this to a running back, but it’s not. Think about a runner heading through the line of scrimmage and they are come face to face with a DT, LB, or DB greeting them head-on. If the runner’s hips and knees are bent then his shoulders will have to be leaning forward so he can explode into the contact. When he makes contact, the energy transfers from his legs in the ground, up his hips, and to the point of contact with the defender.

A great runner has learned through a combination of repetition and intuitive assimilation of practice and game situations (natural talent) how to subtly change the angle of contact in close quarters and deliver enough of a blow to at least “shed” the tackle, if not just knock guy on his butt. This is why a back such as Eddie George who “ran too high” coming out of college actually was a good NFL player. He was taller than the average back, but he knew how to lower his shoulders and bend his knees and hips so more times than not he exploded into contact.

The same can be said with Eric Dickerson. Most people remember his “upright” running style, but if you watch highlights that don’t involve him running through creases untouched for 40- 60 yards and looking like Carl Lewis in pads, you’ll see a guy who could get low very quick and deliver a blow with his shoulders into contact. Adrian Peterson is capable of the same thing. I never once worried about his upright running style. The guy has monstrously great balance. When I first thought about comparisons to Peterson vs. McFadden I would watch how McFadden would get yanked out-of-bounds by the arm a hit to the hips, or a horse collar and see right away from the standpoint of balance Peterson is uniquely different–he stayed in bounds on plays like this all the time (which is what is one of quite a few things special about his skills). But this also has to do with hip and leg alignment and good use of his strength.

When I see McFadden in the hole he gets yanked backwards more than many backs (even compared to 6-0, 200-lb Felix Smith) in the hole or knocked down on is butt from head-on hits because his knee bend and hip bend is just not there. How can you tell? Look at his shoulders. A back like George or Dickerson often ran as if their shoulders were a big hand on a clock pointed to the number 2 or at worst between the number 1 and number 2. A back like McFadden is somewhere between the 12 and 1 and never quite at 1. It’s why when he gets hit in the hole he’ll fall backwards more than the average NFL-quality prospect. A back like Edgerrin James, who is unbelievably good at getting low, often gets closer to the number 3 position with his shoulder lean as he is still running forward. You can’t do this unless your hips and knees are bent.

It is not to say that McFadden never lowered his shoulders, but it was generally done in the open field with a significant running start against a defensive back. To his credit, he will break some long runs as a situational back because he showed the ability to run the designed offensive plays at Arkansas to perfection. Arkansas did a terrific job tailoring an offense around McFadden and Felix Jones by forcing defenses to overplay one and get burned by the other. SEC defenses have some of the best athletes in the country, especially on defense. But these fast athletes are used in highly aggressive defenses and they are susceptible to a glorified counter play with play action that will force them out of position when that play fake goes to an elite athlete in Jones.

The problems with McFadden show up when he had a reasonably normal freelance opportunity and he didn’t possess the vision or patience to allow these normal alternatives to develop. I’ve heard McFadden can catch, but after watching six games over a two-year period, I saw a runner who dropped easy passes on a consistent basis. Robert Meachem caught a lot of passes in workouts last year with his hands, but struggled as a rookie in-game situations. Once again, this is why game film is invaluable in telling how a player does when the pads come on, the fans are screaming, and the veterans are playing with a speed an intensity they’ve never seen before.

Like Reggie Bush, McFadden will learn that his speed isn’t as much of an advantage in the NFL as it is in college football. Speaking of Bush, I was very high on the USC back and still believe he has the skills to live up to the hype if he can stay healthy and stop pressing so hard to make the big play. In contrast, I think McFadden is more of a project that can develop into a franchise back if he corrects some serious deficiencies and works his butt off to do so.

Unfortunately, he hasn’t shown the maturity off the field and football has come rather easy to him. Having kids out-of-wedlock or some college bar fights doesn’t make him a hardened criminal, but I believe the odds are against him to take his work ethic to the level of a Ladainian Tomlinson or Peyton Manning. And McFadden needs to work this hard to make the jump or he will most likely disappoint. The one way I could see how his evaluation is off base is if McFadden’s injuries severely altered his running style and he was generally cruising off his incredible speed, but I’m skeptical this is the case. My best overall grade of McFadden indicates he clearly has the talent to contribute in the NFL, but needs a lot of work to be the primary offensive weapon.

Darren McFadden had a terrific season a few years ago, but hasn't stayed healthy. or performed consistently as an NFL back. Photo by June 10459.
Darren McFadden had a terrific season a few years ago, but hasn’t stayed healthy. or performed consistently as an NFL back. Photo by June 10459.

Felix Jones, Arkansas: I believe Jones will become a viable situational back in the NFL, but to rate him a top five back in this draft is a big leap of faith in a player who only carried the football 20 times once in his college career. Nearly two-thirds of Jones’ carries were as a receiver on end-arounds with McFadden as the quarterback. Linebackers and defensive ends won’t be as concerned about most NFL quarterbacks as college defenders were with McFadden’s blazing speed. The Wild Hog formation at Arkansas was mutually beneficial to both players. I think Jones has the skills to develop into a productive contributor based on a game where he ran primarily out of the I-formation as the RB, but there are several other backs that proved they could produce without a decoy that runs a 4.33 40-yard dash. Jones will contribute in the NFL as a kick return specialist and change of pace runner, but I’m not as convinced he’ll be the lock as a future starter as others. I have no qualms about drafting him because he has some Clinton Portis potential, but even Portis splitting time with Edgerrin James and Najeh Davenport showed much more on film than Jones.

Mike Hart, Michigan: The former Wolverine is a tough runner with good balance and movement, but he lacks the speed and acceleration to develop along the lines of a back of similar dimensions in this draft that I rated much higher—Ray Rice. Hart is also a fairly significant liability as a pass protector. He ran behind a very large offensive line that seemed to be outclassed versus top competition. Michigan has a recent history of turning out
disappointing skill position players. Although I believe Hart could develop into a solid depth chart player, but he’s too small to be this slow. I project Hart as a change of pace back who is capable of a contributing in relief of an injured starter, but he’ll be exposed for his deficiencies if considered for a starting role.

Underrated RB Prospects

I was wrong about Smith's tentative approach early in his career, but when he was healthy he flashed what I saw overall. Photo by Carlos Osorio.
I was wrong about Smith’s tentative approach early in his career, but when he was healthy he flashed what I saw overall. Photo by Carlos Osorio.

Kevin Smith, University of Central Florida: How does a 2000-yard rusher qualify as underrated? When analysts and draftniks dismiss him as a baby-faced junior who is too thin, too easy to bring down, and indecisive at the point of attack. The only thing that they have right is the remark about his face—and that doesn’t win or lose football games. Smith is bigger than Darren McFadden and will likely add another 10 pounds of muscle as he matures because it’s his upper body that is on the thinner side. He already has a very muscular trunk and runs with good balance.

The skills that make Smith special are his vision, hard-cutting style, and hip flexibility, which are reminiscent of no back since Marcus Allen. Smith faced 9- and 10-men fronts and demonstrated a decisive style. I watched him have a very productive day against a stout Mississippi State defense that loaded up the box to stop him. Although he needs to do a better job of moving his legs when wrapped up, he has deceptive power and runs out of more hits and ankle tackles than advertised. The fact that he’s one of the best pure runners in this draft and he is still raw as a player makes Smith an underrated commodity.

In a few years Smith has a strong chance to be known as the best back in this class if he can capitalize on his vast talent. What will hold him back early is his need to improve his skills as a receiver. Nevertheless, Smith will excite teammates, fans, and fantasy owners with his running style. My only concern with Smith is his hard-cutting style. Some of the backs that share this aspect of his style suffered knee injuries that robbed them of their skill.

Matt Forte, Tulane: Forte is described as a big back (which is ironic when you consider some of the same people who say this about Forte describe Kevin Smith—a back with the same dimensions—as too thin), but what surprised observers at the combine was his speed and agility. What impressed me was his ability to combine excellent vision with change of direction skills ranging from the subtle to the dramatic. Forte played behind an offensive line routinely over-matched by its opposition and he demonstrated the ability to pick and slide away from penetrating defenders into the backfield. I saw a number of runs from Forte where many backs would have lost 5-7 yards when Forte had gains of 5-7 yards.

This is due to his quick first step, vision, and change of direction. It won’t take more than a year or two for Forte to get a shot as a starter. His greatest deficiency is his inconsistent approach to pass blocking. Even without refined pass protection skills, Forte should compete for time on the field as a rookie.

Matt Forte RSP Sample

For analysis of skill players in this year’s draft class, download the 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio.The 2014 RSP will available April 1 and if you pre-order before February 10, you get a 10 percent discount. Better yet, if you’re a fantasy owner the 56-page Post-Draft Add-on comes with the 2012 – 2014 RSPs at no additional charge and available for download within a week after the NFL Draft. Best, yet, 10 percent of every sale is donated to Darkness to Light to combat sexual abuse. You can purchase past editions of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio for just $9.95 apiece.

RSP Flashback: Alshon Jeffery Pre-Draft Analysis

0 Comments read 2012 NFL Draft, Players, Wide Receiver
Alshon Jeffery showed all the potential to be a top-five talent at his position in the 2012 draft class. Photo by Case Rhee.
Alshon Jeffery showed all the potential to be a top-five talent at his position in the 2012 draft class. Photo by Case Rhee.

How did I grade Alshon Jeffery in the 2012 NFL Draft? A potential cross between Michael Irvin and Cris Carter if Jeffery demonstrates he wants to work like a pro.

Alshon Jeffery, South Carolina (6-3, 216)
Cris Carter-Michael Irvin is also a good best-case scenario for a player of Jeffery’s talents. However, where Criner has a dash of Marques Colston and more Carter to his game than Irvin, Jeffery has the strength and physical style that leans heavier to the Irvin side of the equation.

Big, strong, agile, and powerful, Jeffery can make defenders miss in tight spaces and run through wraps. He has a good, tight spin move, that helps him continue moving forward in traffic. He also has the power and balance to bounce off hits delivered by much bigger defenders and he has little fear of working over the middle against physical coverage.

Although strong and agile, he doesn’t run with great pad level and will be prone to taking hits that he should be able to avoid. His effort isn’t as high energy as it needs to be. The WR believes his size and strength is elite and doesn’t consider that his speed and quickness is not. He doesn’t appear fast and his gait is not smooth at all. He’s a long strider.

Jeffery can high-point passes and over power defenders in tight coverage. He has enough build-up speed to threaten the intermediate range of the field. He’s especially good on fade and corner routes where he can use his height and strength to maintain separation and adjust to the football in the air.

However, he’s also good at being first with his hands to prevent defenders from getting their hands into his body on quick-hitting routes like slants and short in-cuts. When game officials are willing, Jeffery will bully a defensive back downfield to establish separation. Jeffery should be able to develop very good hand techniques to release from the line of scrimmage, but right now they are hit or miss. He needs to work on his rip move and swim move.

Frequently, the CB can ride him up field and eliminate quick throws. This is because he relies too much on his size/strength and he’ll have to learn more of a finesse game so he doesn’t incur penalties at the next level. He wins balls where it appears the defender has the better position with the ball in the air. His skill at tracking the ball is good and he has a basketball forward’s mentality to get the rebound. This is also where he reminds me of a Michael Irvin type of player – not really fast, but very physical with good timing.

Jeffery has to do a better job of securing the ball immediately after the catch. Otherwise, he’s susceptible to getting stripped when trying to run with the ball before he has tucked it safely away. Although I’m not around Jeffery, it seems from his work on the field that if he dedicated himself to becoming a top-conditioned athlete he could become fast enough to get deep because the work will help him add explosiveness as well as strength. If he adds an extra dimension of foot speed to his game, he can develop into a versatile route runner and become a highly productive NFL starter for a long time.

I think Jeffery has great potential to become a counted on, chain moving possession receiver with strong red zone skills, but only if he works at it and develops a high motor. At this point he doesn’t and that could mean he doesn’t endear himself to a team and risks never making the impact he’s capable. What he has shown at times in his career places him high enough on this list, If he demonstrated it consistently, he’d be be in my top-five, easily.

Jeffery highlights.

Alshon Jeffery’s 2012 RSP  Play-By-Play Reports and Grading Checklist: Alshon Jeffery Sample

For analysis of skill players in this year’s draft class, download the 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio.The 2014 RSP will available April 1 and if you pre-order before February 10, you get a 10 percent discount. Better yet, if you’re a fantasy owner the 56-page Post-Draft Add-on comes with the 2012 – 2014 RSPs at no additional charge and available for download within a week after the NFL Draft. Best, yet, 10 percent of every sale is donated to Darkness to Light to combat sexual abuse. You can purchase past editions of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio for just $9.95 apiece.

Futures: Jared Abbrederis vs. Bradley Roby

0 Comments read 2014 NFL Draft, Players, Wide Receiver
Was Bradley Roby's performance against Jared Abbrederis (above) a case of rust or a that of a polished receiver winning his routes? Photo by Matt Radickal.
Was Bradley Roby’s performance against Jared Abbrederis (above) a case of rust or a that of a polished receiver winning his routes? Photo by Matt Radickal.

In the case of Bradley Roby vs. Jared Abbrederis was the outcome based on rust or polish? I’ll take polish. 

 

Futures: Jared Abbrederis vs. Bradley Roby

by Matt Waldman

Depending whom you ask, Ohio State cornerback Bradley Roby is one of the top three to five cornerbacks in the 2014 NFL Draft. Draftniks love the 5-foot-11, 193-pound Roby’s speed. CBS projects Roby as a second-round pick who could go higher depending on how close the Buckeye junior’s 40-yard dash time is to the range of 4.35-4.4 seconds.

Although I don’t create rankings until I’ve studied all the skill players I’m going to watch, I wouldn’t be surprised if Wisconsin wide receiver Jared Abbrederis is among the top-15 receivers on my list. CBS projects Abbrederis to be drafted in the second or third-round. Considering that between 2006 and 2013 an average of 32 receivers were taken in the draft – 14 in the first three rounds – that projection has some basis of logic.

However, when Abbrederis, a former walk-on, got the better of Roby this year, I think the resulting analysis from CBS’ draftnik team of Roby had a minor, but important disconnect in logic. Before I go any further, let me say that I have a great deal of respect for Rob Rang and Dane Brugler. They cover a ton of players and do a fantastic job.

My disagreement with one of Rang’s views concerns Roby’s work against Abbrederis this year. Rang attributes the corner’s performance against the receiver to rust:

After sitting out the season opener due to a suspension, the Buckeyes junior showed some rust early in 2013 and struggled mightily against Wisconsin wide receiver Jared Abbrederis, but there is a lot to love about Roby’s game. That includes his speed and fighting attitude, but he needs to stay alert for all four quarters to convince NFL teams he’s worthy of a high first-round grade.

Roby missed one game. Rust shouldn’t be a problem. Rang and his team have Abbrederis ranked 11th on their list of receivers and believe he’s a second or third-round pick. They have Roby as a second-round pick.

If two players with second-round grades square off and one gets the better of the other do you presume that the other lost due to rust? I don’t. I’d only believe rust was a factor if I think the losing player is a much better prospect.

Even if Rang personally has Roby as a high first-round pick and Abbrederis as a third-round pick, is there really that much of a difference that Roby should have shut down the Wisconsin receiver? Only if the phrase “walk-on” still hangs in your subconscious when thinking about Abbrederis.

I have long maintained that there isn’t much of a difference between many first-round talents and undrafted free agents. The perception of players generates a far greater gap among them than reality – especially when the public reads thousands of articles that reinforce a faulty perception like Russell Wilson is too small to become an NFL starter, much less a good one.

While many will expect that Roby will only get better with his technique and this warrants him a higher grade –myself included – is this really a good expectation?

Read the rest at Football Outsiders

Reads Listens Views 12/7/2013

0 Comments read Reads Listens Views
This looks like something from the southwestern U.S. or a different planet, but it's a pelvic bone of cow painted by Georgia O'Keeffe.
This looks like something from the southwestern U.S. or a different planet, but it’s a pelvic bone of cow painted by Georgia O’Keeffe.

This week’s Reads Listens Views debuts with a new look and feel to the RSP blog. Check it out.

New Design

I’ve been hunting for a cleaner, photo-friendly blog that is easy on the eyes. I’m hoping this design does the trick. The top menu has simpler categories for your perusal, including drop-downs for additional topics.

Seeking my most viewed posts, my tweets,  my archives, a way to search the site, and how to follow the blog? Scroll to the bottom and you’ll find it all there. This is the third new design of the blog in three years, but I’m hoping it will be the last major change for while.

If you’re new to the RSP blog, welcome to my weekend post Reads Listens Views. This is my chance to post links to articles, performances, and photos I’ve found in recent weeks that I want to share. Some of this content has to do with football, but most of it doesn’t. You might not like everything in this post, but chances are you’ll like something.

Stay tuned later today for my latest Futures at Football Outsiders. I’m profiling this year’s match-up between Ohio State’s star cornerback Bradley Roby – a top prospect with sub-4.4 speed – and Wisconsin’s Jared Abbrederis, a former walk-on whose technique trumps Roby’s athleticism for most of the game.

[youtube=http://youtu.be/rm9L0RIhR3s]

I recently bought some exercise mats for both of my offices. Sitting for hours a day becomes more difficult on the body with age. If you’re a desk jockey, this exercise might be helpful.

Listens

[youtube=http://youtu.be/TLt0jMALz7E]

Reads 

Views

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Football Reads

Thanks

I have a great base of readers. For those of you new to the Rookie Scouting Portfolio, the publication is available every April 1. You can learn more about the RSP here. If you want to see samples of the play-by-play notes I take to write the analysis, you can find them here. And to download past versions of the publication (2006-2012), go here.

Remember, 10 percent of each sale is donated to Darkness to Light, a non-profit devoted to preventing and addressing sexual abuse through community training in schools, religious groups, and a variety of civic groups across the U.S. I’ll have an announcement before the year is over about what the RSP donated to D2L as well as a plans for the 2014 RSP.