Posts tagged Matt Waldman Scouting Reports

Boiler Room: Utah TE Jake Murphy

Photo by John Martinez Paviliga.
Photo by John Martinez Paviliga.

Utah’s Jake Murphy is a safe, late-round pick with upside when called upon to do more.

One of the challenges involved with player analysis is to be succinct with delivering the goods. As the author of an annual tome, I’m often a spectacular failure in this respect. A series I started last spring at the RSP blog to remedy it is The Boiler Room

I often see a play unfold while I’m studying a prospect that does a great job of encapsulating that player’s skills. When I witness these moments, I try to imagine if I was working for an NFL organization creating cut-ups for a personnel director would I include this play as part of a cut-up of highlights?

In every draft, there are players who lack the attention-grabbing athleticism and production to capture the attention of the media and draftniks, but have something to offer the NFL. In a draft as deep as this one, these players are late-round picks at best.

Jake Murphy is one of these prospects who might be off the public’s collective radar, but has potential value to an organization for his hands, athleticism, and special teams play. However, the tight end from Utah is 25 years old and it is a point that some draftniks will nitpick.

I only see the logic of lowering the value of a player if he has an early round grade and the expectation is for him to become a long-term starter. Correct me if I’m wrong, but not a lot of players earn second contracts with their original teams. The first contract is generally a deal of 2-4 years, the average lifespan of an NFL career.

If I were a GM, why would I sweat the age of a 25 year-old tight end? If he was 28, different story, but 25 is young enough that if he develops beyond expectation, he still has another 2-3 years of good production before thinking about athletic decline–and I’m not including the top athletes at this position who play into their mid-30s.

Murphy isn’t seen as a top athlete at the position, but his physical skills aren’t bad by any stretch of the imagination. His short shuttle was the second-best time for his position at the combine and his three-cone drill was fourth among participating tight ends. The potential to get off the line and change direction with suddenness is there and that’s good enough for a player of Murphy’s skills to threaten a seam and win in the short zone.

And Murphy’s skills are difficult to teach because despite lacking high-end tools, he integrates the tools he has in a way that some high-end athletes can never succeed in doing. The two plays below are good examples.

The first is a 3rd and 13 pass from the 16 of Colorado early in the first quarter. Murphy is next to the right tackle in a 2×1 receiver, 11 personnel pistol. The outside linebacker near the line of scrimmage is shaded outside and the safety is 10 yards deep, also with outside shade.  Murphy gets a clean release inside and executes a double move, forcing the safety to bite on the shallow stem of a stop-and-go that Murphy breaks to the inside for a touchdown catch.

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TXO3y5lXFlI&start=44&w=560&h=315]

There are a few things I like about Murphy’s performance on this play. Although the double move isn’t the best route I’ve seen, his footwork is precise and fluid. It’s a good sign that he can do more as a route runner. He also sinks his hips and turns his outside shoulder to sell the potential break on the stop route. This baits the safety to break outside.

A tight end with good feet and hip flexibility has the promise to develop into a good NFL route runner. What he showed here is a good reflection of what he did at the combine. He’s quick enough to do the job and savvy enough to trick an opponent.

Murphy finishes the play with a good catch of the target placed above his head. The athleticism and awareness of the reception is another thing I liked about this play. While the beaten safety tries to work back to the break to cut off the route, the other safety is approaching Murphy from the opposite side of the field.

Murphy extends for the ball, makes the catch, and spins inside to avoid the oncoming safety at the five. This is a good display of concentration and hand-eye coordination to make the play, gauge the oncoming defender and move to protect the ball.

The oncoming safety wraps Murphy, but the tight end drags the tackler across the goal line, earning the final three yards to the end zone standing up. Murphy avoids the potential for a collision, but also prepared for it with enough focus to still make the reception. This is the kind focus an NFL tight end has to display as a matter of routine.

Here is a reception in tight, physical coverage on 3rd and 9 (note that this is the second, third-down target I’m showing you–a good sign about Murphy’s reliability in the passing game) from a 1×3 receiver, 1o-personnel pistol. Murphy is the inside trips receiver on the left side of the formation. The safety is eight yards deep with a slight inside shade.

Murphy runs an eight-step stem and patters his feet into a turn on an in-cut. Not a great route by any means, but if there’s an aspect of tight end play that should improve with experience it’s running pass patterns.

Still, Murphy freezes the safety just enough with a small dip to the inside once he reaches  the top of his stem. It’s hard to catch, but it’s there. What’s difficult for a receiver to improve in his game is winning the ball in tight, physical coverage–and that is what comes next.

Murphy drifts to the first down marker after he breaks inside and makes the catch between both safeties. The tight end shields the trailing safety with his back and extends for the ball as the front side safety delivers a shot to Murphy’s chest.

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TXO3y5lXFlI&start=127&w=560&h=315]

The impact of the collision is strong enough to shake the trailing safety off Murphy’s back, but the tight end also has enough balance to bounce off this head-on collision, spin to the middle of the field, and gain another five yards the trailing safety drags Murphy to the turf by the legs.

It’s tough to teach a player how to adjust to the ball and withstand punishment. These two plays show Murphy getting it done. In addition to his special teams work, there are enough compelling reasons why I’d consider Murphy as a late-round pick.

I know he has a feel for the passing game, the focus and toughness to make plays if called off the bench, and potential to grow into a contributor in an offense. Even if he never earns that chance, the fact he has experience on kicks and demonstrates the skill to run and tackle means his downside is good enough to consider him. However, it’s the upside that would make me want to pick him.

 

For analysis of skill players in this year’s draft class, download the 2014 Rookie Scouting Portfolio – available now. Better yet, if you’re a fantasy owner the 56-page Post-Draft Add-on comes with the 2012 – 2014 RSPs at no additional charge and available for download within a week after the NFL Draft. Best, yet, 10 percent of every sale is donated to Darkness to Light to combat sexual abuse. You can purchase past editions of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio for just $9.95 apiece.

2014 RSP Ready For Download . . . Really!

2014 RSP

The 2014 Rookie Scouting Portfolio is now available for download . . . really!

There’s a first time for everything . . .

For the first time in over 700 posts, I hit “publish” instead of save and it had to be the post I was saving to announce the RSP and I can’t even blame it on the family pet. All’s good now. The 2014 Rookie Scouting Portfolio is ready for download.

The 2014 Rookie Scouting Portfolio Tale of the Tape

Standing at 1284 pages and covering 164 skill prospects, the 2014 Rookie Scouting Portfolio is now available for download at www.mattwaldman.com. Because a post-draft addendum is now a regular part of the RSP purchase, it has allowed me the luxury to weigh my rankings less on draft stock and more on talent until we see how opportunity knocks at the NFL Draft. Take video tour.

As was the case last year, many of the climbers and fallers in my pre-draft rankings surprised me. I look forward to sharing more of my thoughts about these players and  the process in the coming weeks.

Here’s what my readers have to say about the RSP:

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“In case you guys havne’t heard, @MattWaldman’s RSP will be availalble April 1st. A must buy for fans of the NFL Draft.” – BillsTalk.com via Twitter

 

For analysis of skill players in this year’s draft class, download the 2014 Rookie Scouting Portfolio available NOW. Better yet, if you’re a fantasy owner the Post-Draft Add-on comes with the 2014 RSP at no additional charge. Best, yet, 10 percent of every sale is donated to Darkness to Light to combat sexual abuse. You can purchase past editions of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio for just $9.95 apiece.

Futures: Louisiville QB Teddy Bridgewater

Teddy Ballgame (sorry, Mr. Williams) gets the Futures treatment. Photo by KYNGPAO
Teddy Ballgame (sorry, Mr. Williams) gets the Futures treatment. Photo by KYNGPAO

Bridgewater is fluid, relaxed, and confident, but does his arm, deep accuracy, and hand size inspire the NFL’s confidence?

Futures: Louisville QB Teddy Bridgewater

By Matt Waldman

The question of what makes a good NFL quarterback isn’t much different than the question of what is healthy eating for a human being. Most want a simple answer to a complex question. Of the few who know many of the right answers, even fewer put the knowledge into practice.

Most prefer to latch onto the magic-pill theory. During the past 20 years we’ve seen teams, analysts, and fans latch onto a particular concept that they hope will be a game-changer.

Take quarterback buzz words and phrases like arm slot, compact release, running ability, and height and replace them with acai, agave, paleo, gluten-free, and kale and the drift is the same – embrace the potential these things and you look smart. At least until there’s a backlash like there has been with running quarterbacks and kale.

Both the vegetable and the particular species of NFL quarterback were trending as beneficial commodities until the past six months. Now there’s fear that too much kale is linked to hypothyroidism.Check out the symptoms and it sounds lot like Washington after too much Robert Griffin.

Of course, both kale and Griffin have earned a bad rap due to incomplete analysis. One has to be “significantly iodine deficient” or “consume the vegetable at an insanely high level,” for kale to hurt the human body. Likewise, Washington’s offense was deficient of the necessary chemistryfor a wilted Griffin to thrive.

The trendiest of these magic-pill characteristics this year for quarterback is hand size. The common sense reason is that the bigger the hand, the more control a quarterback has over the football in the face of chaos and bad weather.

I like common sense. However, let’s not take that common sense, run it through a process of reverse engineering, and spit out some myopic analysis with data that lacks any usable context. Tyler Wilson is a good example.

Read a football article, forum post, or tweet this year that details the importance of hand size and the conversation often works its way to Wilson, whose hands were smaller than the average NFL quarterback. There’s more implied about Wilson’s hand size as a knock-out factor for his career potential in Oakland than the fact that there were many more viable reasons why the Raiders cut him.

It’s like adding kale to your daily menu of fried chicken and liter of Pepsi and thinking you’re eating healthier only to develop a heart condition. To make matter worse, you then blame your condition on the weekly candy bar rather than the daily dose of fried meat, super doses of soft drinks, and a myriad of other unhealthy habits.

Hand size is no more of a magic pill than height, release mechanics, off-field character, or anything else. It’s rare if any single characteristic of a quarterback is a magic pill or knock-out factor. Combine the hyper-analysis of a singular skill set or a measurement lacking any context of how well a prospect integrates his athleticism, skills, and concepts of the position and it provides ample reason why quarterback is the most misunderstood position in the NFL.

On the basis of physical skills alone, Teddy Bridgewater may possess the least upside of the top quarterbacks entering the 2014 NFL Draft. Yet, on the basis of how a quarterback integrates his skills on the field, the Louisville passer is the best in his class.

The choice of quarterback does more to shape an NFL team than any position on the field. If the coaching staff that inherits Bridgewater designs its offense to match what the quarterback does best, Bridgewater has the skills to be the most productive rookie of this crop with as much upside as any of his peers.

As with all quarterbacks, what’s most prominent with Bridgewater’s game is his footwork. Derek Carr’s movement reveals initiative and impulsivity; Blake Bortles’ indicates decisiveness that can cross the border to the unmindful; and Johnny Manziel’s feet reveal a dynamic player who can lean too much on an improvisational mindset.

The three words I use to describe Bridgewater’s mentality as seen through his footwork are “fluid,” “relaxed,” and “confident.” Bridgewater shares the confidence and decisiveness of Bortles, but the dynamic imagination of Manziel with a better governor over his limitations.

What Bridgewater lacks is weight, top-notch arm strength, and deep accuracy. I’m confident that he can improve each of these weaknesses to some degree. Even if he doesn’t, his integration of his athleticism, touch, accuracy, and manipulation of defenses within 35 yards of the line of scrimmage should be enough to make him as a quality game day manager who can help a team win.

Read the rest of the analysis featuring clips of Bridgewater facing Miami, UCF, and Kentucky at Football Outsiders

RSP Flashback: Dennis Pitta

What Pitta is doing here was commonplace for him at BYU - healthy or otherwise. Photo by Phil Romans.
What Pitta is doing here was commonplace for him at BYU – healthy or otherwise. Photo by Phil Romans.

One of the most common questions I get from new readers is What did you think about [insert player name here] before [NFL team] drafted him? For the next month, I’m posting scouting reports of some of my bigger hits, misses, and lingering questions when it comes to the past eight years of evaluating rookies for the Rookie Scouting Portfolio. I’ll also include the lessons I learned – or am still learning – from the experience of evaluating these players. [Author’s Note: I wrote this about Pitta two weeks ago. Too bad about his injury, he was poised for another strong season]

“[Pitta] is a tough, versatile player who might not wow teams with field-stretching plays, but he will be a great safety valve capable of the big, “little” plays that sustain drives and seal wins . . . paired with a veteran QB and [he] could out-produce some of the more athletic prospects in this class.”

– 2010 Rookie Scouting Portfolio

The 2010 tight end class was a great group that included no less than 16 players – including Dennis Pitta – who have made NFL teams and contributed meaningful minutes:

  • Jimmy Graham
  • Rob Gronkowski
  • Aaron Hernandez
  • Garrett Graham
  • Jermaine Gresham
  • Tony Moeaki
  • Ed Dickson
  • Jim Dray
  • Michael Hoomanawanui
  • Dorin Dickerson
  • Nate Byham
  • Andrew Quarless
  • Anthony McCoy
  • Dedrick Epps

I think 11 of these 15 tight ends above are better athletes than Pitta, but I had the BYU prospect ranked No.4 in this class – over some major names in this group. One was Gronkowski, who was suffering from back issues and I had concerns about his long-term viability.

Another was Graham, who was inexperienced and I felt it was difficult to rank him higher for having one great dimension to his game when the right team might not pick him to exploit it. Graham was one of several players between 2006-2010 who inspired an RSP Post-Draft because I mentioned in the 2010 RSP that the right team picking this Hurricanes tight end would be rewarded.

A third player with a higher profile than Pitta that I placed lower in my rankings was Gresham. The Sooners star was too inconsistent in all phases of the game despite his physical talents. While I whiffed on Demaryius Thomas because I didn’t pay enough attention to his workouts, Pitta’s injury situation on the field and the system at BYU actually highlighted certain skills that made me think the tight end would be productive NFL player.

The Cougars tight end was in a knee brace that restricted his movement in the games I watched. And it was what Pitta was able to do at a higher level than most tight ends I’ve watched in the college game while physically limited: play long against tight coverage and find the open zone.

http://youtu.be/m11pJJXm3Hs

He also reminded me of the likes of Frank Wycheck and Todd Christensen because of his skill creating openings.

[youtube=http://youtu.be/of1Y_N2jaQI]

Purely from the standpoint of athleticism, you could joke that neither Wycheck nor Christensen belonged in the NFL. However, their smarts, ability to handle a physical brand of football, and skill to do all the little things to generate big plays with and without the ball in their hands separate Pitta from the likes of his more physically talented teammate Ed Dickson – a good player, but lacks that extra level of savvy that would make him a borderline star, but has him planted behind Pitta despite being picked a round earlier.

There are a  lot of things the highlights reveal about Pitta’s game that makes him a tough player both against man and zone coverage. First is the wide catch radius. Throw the ball high, low, outside or behind, and Pitta can adjust. Combine this with his ability to make plays in traffic and skill to work with his quarterback when the play breaks down and all of these qualities compensate for his lack of speed.

There were numerous things I learned or had reinforced as lessons from this 2010 tight end class:

  • I needed a post-draft analysis because of team fit (Graham-Hernandez).
  • Physical skills allow an evaluator to project how a player might fare against man coverage, but not necessarily zone coverage – where Pitta thrives.
  • Smart play lurks beyond stats and workout data.
  • Toughness to play physical and productive football while hurt separates great athletes from good football players.
  • I needed to document my process for ranking players in greater detail to connect the dots between game analysis and rankings analysis.

Here are my observations of Dennis Pitta from 2010.

For analysis of skill players in this year’s draft class, download the 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio available now. Better yet, if you’re a fantasy owner the 56-page Post-Draft Add-on comes with the 2013 RSP at no additional charge and available for download within a week after the NFL Draft. Best, yet, 10 percent of every sale is donated to Darkness to Light to combat sexual abuse. You can purchase past editions of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio for just $9.95 apiece.

RSP Flashback: Demaryius Thomas

A.J. Green and Demaryius Thomas? Choose your death cornerbacks . . . Photo by Jeffery Beall.
Whiff  . . . Yep. That’s what I did on Thomas in 2010. I can laugh about it now (a little bit). Photo by Jeffery Beall.

One of the most common questions I get from new readers is What did you think about [insert player name here] before [NFL team] drafted him? For the next month, I’m posting scouting reports and/or thoughts on some of my bigger hits, misses, and lingering questions when it comes to the past eight years of evaluating rookies for the Rookie Scouting Portfolio. I’ll also include the lessons I learned – or am still learning – from the experience of evaluating these players.

Setting Can Make All The Difference

“[Calvin] Johnson, is likely the next great all-purpose threat. Thomas’ talent is far more comparable to Plaxico Burress, who was a very good player once he developed, but not a great player.”

– 2010 Rookie Scouting Portfolio

I whiffed on Demaryius Thomas. If I was a running back and my take on the Broncos stud receiver was an attempt to pass protect for my readers, here’s a visual of what happened:

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0F3scSsrNOY&start=104w=560&h=315]

All I can do is go back to the huddle, say I’m sorry, and work harder. I underestimated Thomas’ speed and relied too much on my analysis within the confines of the Georgia Tech offense. Setting can make all the difference when evaluating a player.

Those who missed big on Cam Newton only saw him as a read-option player. He has been stout in the pocket. Many wrote off Drew Brees as a system quarterback. Perhaps he was merely a great match in two different NFL systems and that’s it, but I’ll take what he’s been dishing to opponents for nearly a decade. And every small school player is “doing it against inferior competition.”

I missed on Thomas because I couldn’t look past the run-heavy system. I should have learned more about the defensive backs Thomas faced and noted the type of throws targeting the Yellow Jackets receiver. Pair these things with Thomas’ minor consistency issues as a pass catcher and it was a disastrous analysis of his potential.

I learned that I had to think about what aspects of the position are an easy or difficult fix for coaches when they work with prospects. Accounting for the development curve – especially in an unusual offensive setting is necessary.

Thomas’ workout times before his foot injury should have also been an indicator me to double-check my work. Whenever a player demonstrates something away from his usual setting that you didn’t see before, it’s likely there are flashes of that skill in his normal setting or a reason why that setting is hiding it.

Here’s my overrated/underrated section from the 2010 RSP (Overrated Underrated 2010).  I wish I could say I missed on Thomas because it was my Georgia bias versus a Tech player, but despite graduating from the University of Georgia, working at the university for nearly seven years, and living in Athens for 19 of the past 20 years, I’m barely more than a casual fan. The jury is still out on Jacoby Ford – who is also “overrated” here. However, if I were to judge Ford solely on his limited time in an NFL lineup, I’d say I was wrong there, too.

In fact, I’ve never been to a Georgia game. I’m not sure that’s going to happen, either. Watching games is a different experience for me now and the importance of setting is paramount.

For analysis of skill players in this year’s draft class, download the 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio available now. Better yet, if you’re a fantasy owner the 56-page Post-Draft Add-on comes with the 2013 RSP at no additional charge and available for download within a week after the NFL Draft. Best, yet, 10 percent of every sale is donated to Darkness to Light to combat sexual abuse. You can purchase past editions of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio for just $9.95 apiece.

2013 RSP Publication Update

Catch your copy of the 2013 RSP on April 1. Photo by Joint Base Lewis McChord.
Catch your copy of the 2013 RSP on April 1. Photo by Joint Base Lewis McChord.

Good Morning.

One day before the 2013 RSP will be available for download at mattwaldman.com and I thought you’d like a status update. I just finished writing the final section of the publication and tomorrow I will be reviewing edits and constructing the publication. As soon as the construction of the document is ready, I will uploading it to the site for download.

I have no estimated timeline in terms of hour it will be ready, but I can give you some details about the publication:

  • 175 players
    • 19 QBs
    • 48 RBs
    • 80 WRs
    • 28 TEs
  • Front of the book: 203 pages of analysis
    • NFL Draft and fantasy overviews of each position
      • Historical draft data by position
      • Historical production data by round
    • Skill breakdowns
      • NEW: Ease of Fix Analysis by position
      • Skill chart rankings by position
        • Best
        • Needs Improvement
        • Worst
    • Notable players at each position
      • Overrated
      • Underrated
      • Projects
    • Player Profiles/Rankings
      • 19 QBs
      • Top 45 RBs
      • Top 45 WRs
      • Top 20 TEs
    • Ranking and Comaprison Cheatsheets and with commentary
      • 19 QBs
      • 45 RBs
      • 60 WRs
      • 27 TEs
  • Not included in the 203 pages:
    • A 15-page glossary of defined criteria I use for my play-by-play my analysis
    • A 37-page Abbreviated Draft Guide

As far as the play-by-play notes and grading checklists, I haven’t gotten to it yet. But when  you combine this 203-page rookie analysis publication with several hundred pages of my notes and player reports organized alphabetically by player position, you’re probably looking at 1000 pages of skill player madness.

Past copies are also available at www.mattwaldman.com and remember, 10 percent of every sale goes to Darkness to Light, a non-profit devoted to training communities to prevent sexual abuse.