Posts tagged Matt Waldman

The Gut Check No.279 – Assessing the Quarter Pole of the Fantasy Season

0 Comments read Matt Waldman
Would you ride or die this season with Wilson? Andrew Brown out. Photo by Football Schedule.
Would you ride or die this season with Wilson? Andrew Brown out. Photo by Football Schedule.

Leave at the curb? Wait a few more miles? Ride or die? Which call should you make with these worrisome players? Matt Waldman scouts the fantasy football landscape at the season’s quarter pole.

Stranded With Bramel: A true Story

This week’s Gut Check begins with a true story (except for one name change – and it’s not the car) that may not seem like it has anything to do with fantasy football, but I promise it does. Stay with me here. It will all be clear soon enough.

Whether it’s a new destination or an old familiar place, there’s nothing more fun than a road trip with friends. Even a familiar journey can present the unexpected. Sometimes these unforeseen events will force its traveler’s to make difficult choices. Take this year’s Senior Bowl trip with Jene Bramel.

Last January was the good doctor’s second trip to Mobile, Alabama to cover the all-star game’s practices with me and Cecil Lammey for the New York Times, the Rookie Scouting Portfolio, and Lammey’s ESPN affiliate. Usually, I pick up everyone at the Atlanta airport and I drive the team to Mobile. Lammey had to make other plans this year so it was Jene and I making the drive.

I’ve been chauffeuring the crew to Mobile and around town for the past five years. Despite odd stories like late-night scavenger hunts for reliable wireless that once led us to an empty Hooter’s parking lot after hours just to file those New York Times practice reports, it has always been an easy gig to be the driver. Even so I had the feeling I should consider renting an SUV last year.

The reason is that I bought a used Prius six months earlier. It works great around town and I even drove it to Memphis without issue on a summer trip with Alicia. However, it’s the Tashard Choice of cars: It’s small, it lacks acceleration, and no one’s really comfortable with the idea of having it carry the offense.

My particular Prius also has two quirks. One is that it has a name. Alicia likes to name machines. I think it’s a backwoods way of respecting the tools you’re fortunate to acquire. We call him Pete.

Pete’s other quirk is his gas gauge. While it’s cool that he gets me 46-50 miles to the gallon on a routine basis, Pete’s gauge doesn’t make a gradual drop from full to empty as you drive him. Instead, Pete will act like he still has a full tank for at least 500 miles. Then with 3-5 miles of gas left in the tank, he drops the gauge to one square above empty.

Imagine Tashard Choice getting 20 touches, looking like he’s capable of 25 more, and at touch number 22 he has a narcoleptic episode just as the ball arrives during the exchange on a toss sweep. While I knew Pete’s gauge wasn’t reliable, I track the odometer well enough to hit the gas station with at least 25-30 miles to spare. But on this Sunday afternoon in the middle of Alabama countryside, Pete conked out on Bamel and me two miles from the nearest exit.

Lot’s of decisions to make at this point: Call USAA? Call a wrecker? Walk to the exit? Go together?

My decision? Leave the northern guy in the deep south on the side of the road (sorry, Jen) to watch the car while I take off running for the exit. A quarter-mile down the road, a car with a trailer pulls to the shoulder waiting for me, windows open, blaring Styx’s “Renegade”.

Countryside. Car out of gas. Stranger offering ride in vehicle blaring song about impending death. It’s a cliche moment of a horror flick.

“I saw your car by the side of the road do you need a ride?” shouts the man over the music. He’s no more than five years older than I am, fit, weekend stubble, looks a little nervous as he’s also sizing me up. Good sign. Another good sign? A sudden wave of panic registers across his face when he realizes that not only is the radio still on, but he’s about to offer a ride to a stranger with Hangman coming down from the gallows and I don’t have very long blasting from his speakers.

“Yep. Ran out of gas. I just need to get to the next exit. What’s your name?” I ask as he tells me his name is Rick. My brain is saying this isn’t a good idea, but my gut is telling me everything’s cool. Still my brain needs a hedge. “Yeah, we’re on assignment with the New York Times for the Senior Bowl in Mobile. They’re expecting us to meet the rest of the team and file a report tonight. What do you do, Rick?”

Rick’s face softens a bit and he looks more relaxed. Meanwhile my cell phone is buzzing in my pocket.

“The Senior Bowl, huh? Good deal. I’m an ER nurse,” Rick says, explaining that it’s his day off and he’s getting ready to do some work on the house. “Was just coming back from Lowe’s when I spotted your car and your friend on the side of the road.”

I get in the car and five minutes later we’re at the only gas station in a 10-15 mile radius and they don’t have a gas canister. I buy two large jugs of distilled water, empty them in front of the gas pump, fill them with fuel in front of the state trooper who does nothing, and we head back for the car. However, we have to drive another three miles past the car because his trailer won’t navigate the median on a U-Turn.

This of course elicits another round of cell phone buzzing as we pass Bramel sitting in the sun with his iPad in the grass as he watches us pass him. We make it to Pete. I introduce the doc to the nurse, they talk shop as I fill the car and make sure it starts, we thank Rick, and we’re on our way.

In the car and on our way, Bramel and I have a few realizations. First, I’m an idiot. Not only do I leave Bramel stranded roadside without a key to the car when we have a chance to call USAA and perhaps have to wait a half-hour longer for a ride to the gas station, but I risk never being seen again after entering a car that’s too far away for Bramel to make out.

Second, I at least had some shred of common sense to invoke our affiliation with the world’s most recognized newspaper so our driver is on notice that we’ll be missed if we go missing. Third, I luck out that the driver is a good guy; an ER nurse who was equally unsure about offering a ride to a 40-something dude with a five days of scruff and sporting sunglasses and a Beast Mode t-shirt.

What does this have to do with worrisome players? First, most of you have at least one player making you feel like an idiot after the first three weeks of the season. Second, you at least have some shred of common sense or intuition about how to handle it. Third, you lucked out that I’m not playing Renegade as I write this article.

Fourth, you need to figure out if each player in this week’s Gut Check is someone you should leave at the curb, hang in there for a few more miles, or decide you’re going to ride or die with them. I’m stating my case for each but remember I’m the same guy ran out of gas in a Prius, left Jene Bramel stranded, didn’t answer my cell phone, and took a ride from a stranger.

Of course, I’m here to tell you about it which should tell you I’m either good or I’m lucky. At this point, does it matter which one it is? I didn’t think so. Let’s get started.

Leave At the Curb: Too Risky

RB Stevan Ridley: It’s not the 3.4 yards per carry or the ball security issues that have me worried about Ridley. He’s still a tough runner with burst. It’s the one reception for eight yards in three games versus Brandon Bolden‘s five catches in one week. The Patriots don’t use him in the passing game. Bolden’s 49 yards on 5 receptions is just 2 yards and 1 reception fewer than Ridley’s 2012 receiving total.

Granted, Ridley was the No.10 fantasy runner last year with that paltry total. However, Bolden ate into Ridley’s time when he was healthy last year and Vereen also battled health issues.

Read the rest at Footballguys.com

Futures: UGA QB Aaron Murray

0 Comments read 2014 NFL Draft, Players, Quarterback
Quarterbacks can be divided into task-oriented managers and creative managers. Find out which one fits best for Aaron Murray. Photo by Wade Rackley.
Quarterbacks can be divided into task-oriented managers and creative managers. Find out which one fits best for Aaron Murray. Photo by Wade Rackley.

Futures: UGA QB Aaron Murray

By Matt Waldman

The most glaring example of the difference between a good college player and a good NFL player is at the quarterback position. It’s also the position where draftniks and football evaluators have one of the loosest working definitions for the term “developmental prospect.” I’ve seen this term used to describe players judged as undrafted free agents who would be best served looking for work with the Canadian or Arena League just as often as I’ve seen it as a label for a second or third-round prospect.

But it was only a few years ago that the NFL draft had nearly twice the number of rounds, which explains why a third-round player and an undrafted free agent can have the same label. Considering that NFL scouting is still rooted in mid-20th century practices (I’m not talking about some teams’ uses of iPads and databases to track and store information, but the actual concepts and techniques they use to assess players), it shouldn’t be a surprise.

Georgia’s Aaron Murray is a quarterback I’ve seen projected by my colleagues at CBS as a third-round prospect and top-100 player, but whose game matches my working definition of a developmental player. The Bulldog’s four-year starter exhibits sound fundamentals, base accuracy in the passing game, and enough awareness to lead a winning football team in one of the best conferences in college football.

However, Murray also epitomizes the skills gap between big-time college passers and the pro quarterbacks fighting for remaining rosters spots in the NFL. This week’s Futures profiles Murray’s comfort zone and where his inner demons lurk. If the Georgia quarterback can expand his ability to translate what he’s learning in the classroom to what he does on the field, he could have a career as a capable backup. However, I think the third-round grade is an optimistic assessment.

A good way to explain this is a quick look at Murray’s former competitor for the starting job when they were freshmen: Zach Mettenberger, who played at a local high school no more than 20 minutes from the UGA campus. Mettenberger was the prototypical pocket passer in terms of size and arm strength and I thought he was the better prospect. After he was arrested on alcohol, disorderly conduct, and obstruction of justice charges during spring break of his freshman year, it didn’t matter – he was booted from the team and Murray earned the job.

I haven’t studied Mettenberger in depth since then, but I’m not the least bit shocked that Cam Cameron’s system is bringing out the best in the LSU quarterback and reviving his draft stock. Mettenberger has the physical skills and prototypical size most NFL teams covet and I wouldn’t be surprised if Mettenberger’s classification as a developmental player also earns the accompanying tag of “future starter”.

Murray’s developmental label might warrant starter consideration, but I think the fit is more team-specific for the 6-foot-1, 208-pound quarterback. Russell Wilson, Drew Brees, and Aaron Rodgers’ skills are proof that quarterbacks between 5-foot-10 and 6-foot-2 can succeed as NFL starters, but they are currently exceptions to the rule. I think Murray’s upside is more along the spectrum of Alex Smith and Jeff Garcia as the best-case scenarios with Bruce Gradkowski as a more realistic aspiration: quarterbacks who perform best in the classic version of the West Coast Offense predicated on short passing, rhythm, and movement.

Read the rest at Football Outsiders

Reads Listens Views 9/20/2013

0 Comments read Reads Listens Views
Koreans have "Han", Clevelanders have the Browns. Same thing. Photo by Erik Daniel Drost.
Koreans have “Han”, Clevelanders have the Browns. Same thing. Photo by Erik Daniel Drost.

Commentary: Trent Richardson Trade

Sigmund Bloom called me today on the heels of the Richardson-to-Colts deal. Two weeks prior, I was a guest On The Couch with Bloom explaining to him and Scott Pianowski that Richardson appeared tentative and wasn’t exploiting plays the way he should in the zone blocking scheme.

“It sounds like your observations were similar to what Joe Lombardi and company were seeing in Cleveland. You felt a tremor in the Force.”

Perhaps. But I still wouldn’t have dealt Richardson. He’s a top-10 pick. He’s capable of helping the Browns become a playoff team even if its attempt to land a franchise quarterback fails. I shared Chase Stuart’s piece on the numbers this summer. The point is about the insights you get from data and how you apply it. Trading away a franchise player seems like the wrong decision to me.

If I were a part of the Browns organization, I would have told Rob Chudzinski to change his offense’s blocking scheme. Use more gap-style plays. After Lamar Miller looked tentative against Cleveland in Week 1, they ran nothing but gap plays for Miller against the Colts and the second-year runner was far more productive and a good example of using data to your advantage.

Gap plays require less conceptual skill and highlight athleticism. Miller and Richardson are top-tier athletes. Just like Darren McFadden, they can run around you, bull through you, and hit a hole with ferocity. Limit the decision-making to one area and let them create in that smaller space and they will be more decisive runners. The Dolphins saw it work after making this switch within the span of a week.

The Browns decided the answer was to trade its top-10 overall pick from 2012.

Perhaps there’s more to the story with Richardson that has less to do with his on-field skill. We won’t know this right now. However, I’m with Grigson when it comes to his rationale for taking Richardson:

“I know the numbers,” Grigson said. “But the yardage is there. You see it when you’re watching the film. Obviously if you have a guy that’s your main threat in the offense, that’s who defenses are going to key up. Trent isn’t even near his ceiling. We’re talking about the third pick in the draft, and that’s not because he’s a ham-and-egger.”

The Colts have a gap-style ground game with traps and counter plays. This is a great match. And as Bloom shared with me over the phone, the Browns are paying a significant amount of money from Richardson’s signing bonus to ship him to another team in his prime with the hope of acquiring a (likely) mid-to-late pick from the Colts to stockpile and land a franchise quarterback.

A) I hope they can land that quarterback and B) They better be right.

The town already gave up two Super Bowl Championships because they tried to play hardball on a stadium. By the way, how many teams have built new stadiums since this ordeal that cost the Browns the Ravens? I get that the arguments for new stadiums are stupid and that the taxpayer often foots more of the bill than what they really get back for these owner-vanity projects. Cleveland was the city that was made the example or other cities to heed.

But as a former Clevelander, I can tell you that we have something in common with Korean culture. We have the Browns, they have Han (from Wikipedia):

Han is a concept in Korean culture attributed as a national cultural trait. Han denotes a collective feeling of oppression and isolation in the face of overwhelming odds. It connotes aspects of lament and unavenged injustice.

The minjung theologian Suh Nam-dong describes han as a “feeling of unresolved resentment against injustices suffered, a sense of helplessness because of the overwhelming odds against one, a feeling of acute pain in one’s guts and bowels, making the whole body writhe and squirm, and an obstinate urge to take revenge and to right the wrong—all these combined.”[1]

In some occasions, anthropologists have recognized han as a culture-specific medical condition whose symptoms include dyspnea, heart palpitation, and dizziness. Someone who dies of han is said to have died of hwabyeong.[2]

Although I am no longer a diehard Browns fan, I still have Clevelander Han and it won’t go away. It followed me to Tennessee (one-yard short). It might be following me to Seattle (Falcons playoff game).

I think the organization just made an egregious error in judgment, but for the sake of Browns’ fans they better know what they’re doing come April.

Listens – An Entire Concert For Those of You (NFL Owners Or Folks Who Dropped Out of The Rat Race) With Time on Their Hands

[youtube=http://youtu.be/j8xPaAnx5OM]

Football Reads

Views

[youtube=http://youtu.be/7jdyP1R0es8]

Non-Football Reads

Listens

[youtube=http://youtu.be/LknbuE2dHGI]

Thank You

Sometimes it’s best to be brief.

The One Trade Advice Article You Need to Read

0 Comments read Matt Waldman
There are a fair share of Jimmy Graham-sized targets in this draft, but as I finish up my rankings, only a few have a ceiling that is even in the neighborhood of the Saint. Photo by Football Schedule.
The art of the deal is a huge part of fantasy football that is not explored in depth by writers. I’m tackling in this week’s Gut Check at Footballguys. Here’s a taste. Photo by Football Schedule.

I have written close to 500 articles about fantasy football. This is the one I’m most confident will make you a better fantasy owner. It might be the best thing I’ve learned as a fantasy owner in years. Ironically, the person who provided me the majority of this knowledge has no experience playing fantasy football. 

In nearly 20 years of writing about this hobby, I’ve never read a good article that discusses how to become better at making trades. I’m sure there are some, but not in the circles I’ve traveled as a fantasy writer (and it’s a pretty broad circle). I broached the topic with Sigmund Bloom this afternoon when he called me to share his rant against trading Michael Vick.

Bloom agreed he hasn’t seen any quality articles about the strategies behind making deals. He proposed we collaborate one night on the subject. A trained lawyer, Bloom has some good negotiation skills. I also have some chops of my own as a former salesman (when I actually try). However, the best negotiator I know is my wife, Alicia.

Those of you who read me regularly know by now that when I invoke my wife’s name in writing 99 percent of the time it is for comic relief. Today is that one percent exception. Alicia is a corporate buyer. With millions of dollars of spend under her responsibility, she negotiates for a living with Fortune 100 companies. Her negotiation style is also regarded as rare in the field because she’s adept at several styles rather than relying on just one.

Some of my best friends have benefited from her negotiation advice in recent years. It inspired me to attempt to write this article this summer, but I just didn’t have enough perspective to translate her knowledge to fantasy football. I wasn’t asking her the right questions. The combination of Bloom’s initial topic, my wife’s knowledge, and some information I acquired just a few days ago while covering a non-football story at my day job helped me figure out the right questions to ask.

I haven’t been a good trade negotiator in fantasy football. Some who got the worse end of deals with me might disagree, but they’re looking at the art of the deal the wrong way.

I’m lucky when I get time to assess my collective free agent pools for 30 minutes a week. I’m in too many leagues and I’m likely to be giving notice in half of them this spring. I want to have time to analyze my league’s market and negotiate on behalf of my teams.

This year I’ve already accepted and turned down two deals I shouldn’t have in dynasty leagues. The reason is I never had a clear understanding of good negotiation tactics and what is required to cultivate them.

Until now.

Part I: Adopt A Negotiator’s Mindset

There are three fundamental things you have to internalize as a fantasy owner if you want to become good at the art of the deal:

1. You need to know the spectrum of players you want and the spectrum of players you’re willing to give away.

2. You need to have real commitment to your limits and be willing to lose.

3. You need to evaluate your skills at trade negotiation more by the process and less by the end result.   

If you don’t approach negotiations with these three steps, you are are doing no better than searching for the next bandage to cover the wound in need of surgery. The best way to begin is to take these three steps and work backwards.

Be Process Oriented More Than Results-Oriented And The Results Will Come

Becoming a good negotiator is a process. You have to be mindful of the steps and begin looking at the deal with perspective. Diplomats and business people call it vision; con artists call it the long con. It’s the same skill applied in different spheres. 

Good negotiators understand that they will win and lose deals, but one of the best characteristics of a winning negotiator is that the person is easy to work with. In fantasy football this means you have to engage people and keep them interested in working with you. It’s a quality you have to develop with every potential deal. Even if a trade doesn’t come to fruition or a deal backfires for you or your trade partner, the way you conducted the negotiations will make that person return to you for future deals. 

For the rest, subscribe to Footballguys.com

This is ultimately what you want.

Boiler Room: RB Todd Gurley

0 Comments read 2014 NFL Draft, Players, RSP Boiler Room Videos (Short Form), Running Back
I make player comparisons by style of players along a spectrum of talent. The mid-range of that talent spectrum for Georgia RB Todd Gurley would be Cedric Benson. Photo by Dusty Werner.
I make player comparisons by style of players along a spectrum of talent. The mid-range of that talent spectrum for Georgia RB Todd Gurley would be Cedric Benson. The upper range? Larry Johnson.  Photo by Dusty Werner.

Todd Gurley’s style reminds me of Penn State star Larry Johnson.  For those of you who remember Johnson for his exploits with the Chiefs than the headlines he made off the field, it’s weighty praise. What they have in common is the agility of a 210-pound runner in the powerful frame of  225-230 lb. back.

A series I started last spring at the RSP blog is The Boiler Room. One of the challenges involved with player analysis is to be succinct with delivering the goods. As the author of an annual tome, I’m often a spectacular failure in this respect.

Even so, I will study a prospect and see a play unfold that does a great job of encapsulating that player’s skills. When I witness these moments, I try to imagine if I would include this play as part of a cut-up of highlights for a draft show at a major network or if I was working for an NFL organization creating cut-ups for a personnel director. Unlike the No-Huddle Series, The Boiler Room is focused on prospects I expect to be drafted, and often before the fourth round.

It’s incredibly difficult to boil down any player with just one play. Yet, if I need a play to add to the highlight reel that will help a team make a decision where to slot Todd Gurley on its board, this is my nomination despite the fact there’s an impressive display of long speed on a 75-yard touchdown earlier in this Clemson game.

[youtube=http://youtu.be/wIOlc8M91os]

There are several things about this run that underscore Gurley’s physical talent and conceptual skill.

The first is ball security. Gurley is a primarily a power runner and to do work between the tackles at a high volume a power runner better hold onto the football. You’re going to see throughout this unusual run that he keeps the ball high and tight to his body. There are points during this run where his elbow comes loose from his side, but considering what he has to do during this 12-yard touchdown run his ball security is praiseworthy.

Gurley has the ball tucked to his left side on a run to the left. Even when he has stop short of his path outside the initial block and make a sharp bounce to the inside the ball doesn’t swing loose from his chest. This is one of the most common errors of ball security I see with running backs. They can execute incredible displays of agility and balance, but the ball-carrying arm flies loose of the body and the passing traffic may not tackle the ball carrier, but they can force a fumble.

A good stiff arm or straight-arm isn’t just for attacking defenders or avoiding a wrap-up. Gurley uses his free arm to work around bodies in space. He places his arm on the back of the lineman to stabilize his change of direction and prevent a collision with his teammate.

One of the more impressive parts of this run is Gurley’s feet. For a big back with long speed, he also has some excellent short area quickness. Watch him stutter his steps to slow his path to the outside, keep his balance after establishing contact with the blocker, and then plant with both feet to bounce the run inside. This is a great on-field example of balance and agility.

As Gurley exits the hole, the ball remains high to his chest. While the elbow could be tighter, the runner’s ball security is good enough to avoid the rip attempt by the Clemson defender. If you look close enough you can actually see Gurley squeezing the ball tighter as No.11’s arm reaches towards the ball.

From the point Gurley declares a path at the line of scrimmage until he reaches the end zone, his pad level is excellent. I also like how high his knees are as he approaches the defender he’s about to stiff arm. Note that he makes first contact with the oncoming defender and at the same time squeezes the ball high and tight. Once the defender makes contact with Gurley’s body, the Georgia runner begins to drive through it with even lower pad level.

Whether it’s a sharp cut, a change of direction, a stiff arm, or running through a defender’s wrap, Gurley’s ball security is high and tight. For a back with his strength and home run-hitting skill, it would be easy for him to run with greater abandon. The fact that he doesn’t will endear him to coaches if he can continue to display this good habit in the NFL.

These characteristics don’t guarantee that Gurley will be a star as a professional. Cedric Benson had excellent agility and footwork and true power. He had years with good production, but he would never be considered an upper echelon runner.  Everyone loves Trent Richardson’s potential and while he has displayed that he is one of the more exciting young talents at the position, but he hasn’t proven he’s one of the better backs in the NFL.

What this play demonstrates is that Gurley has the skills to earn a grade within the realm of Benson and Richardson’s draft scores. The difference is that the value of running back has changed enough that there’s a 50-50 chance Gurley doesn’t find a team until the second round. You can ask draftniks more about that possibility. I’m not trying to be a junior GM from my home office – I have too many players to study for playing dress-up.

For analysis of skill players in this year’s draft class, download the 2014 Rookie Scouting Portfolio – available now. Better yet, if you’re a fantasy owner the 56-page Post-Draft Add-on comes with the 2012 – 2014 RSPs at no additional charge. Best, yet, 10 percent of every sale is donated to Darkness to Light to combat sexual abuse. You can purchase past editions of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio for just $9.95 apiece. 

You can begin placing orders for the 2015 RSP in January. 

Flashes: Tajh Boyd Under Pressure

0 Comments read Players, Quarterback
Brent Musberger said he talked to scouts who compared Tajh Boyd to Russell Wilson. Let's have a look from the pocket. Photo by PDA.Photo.
Brent Musberger said he talked to scouts who compared Tajh Boyd to Russell Wilson. Let’s have a look from the pocket. Photo by PDA.Photo.

One of the more telling aspects of gauging a quarterback’s readiness for the NFL is how he manages pressure in the pocket. If the first response is to retreat, there’s work to be done.  It doesn’t matter if a quarterback has the athleticism to break loose of defensive ends and outrun cornerbacks, the passer still needs to harness his physical skills to meet the demands of the position. He may win some of these battles by tucking the ball and making a timely flight from the confines of the pocket, but he’ll ultimately lose the war.

Terrelle Pryor is a much better passer in 2013 than he was at Ohio State. His performance against the Colts on Sunday was entertaining and he’ll win some of these games. But until he can read the defense rather than try to exhaust it, he’ll ultimately lose. Say all you want about the state of the Raiders but as much as Pryor put his team into position to win, he was the biggest reason why they lost in the end.

Tajh Boyd is a winning college quarterback. CBS play-by-play commentator Brent Musberger told his audience during the Georgia-Clemson contest that some scouts he’s talked to say that Boyd reminds them of Russell Wilson. This is no more accurate than saying South Carolina and North Carolina are alike.  Just like the Cackalackies are in the same region, Boyd and Wilson are both mobile quarterbacks with some improvisational skill. This is where the comparison ends.

To the average viewer there’s little difference because both are mobile and can generate big plays when they escape the pocket. To elaborate on what Greg Cosell means when he talks about the importance of a quarterback winning from the pocket is that a top NFL quarterback must possess the skill to win from the pocket even if he’s not a strictly a pocket passer. Wilson was far better at managing the pocket than Boyd by his junior year. Although Wilson had his share of plays where he had to improvise, he was more consistent at maneuvering away from defenders with his feet in position to make accurate passes down field.

Boyd is in an offense where his best passing plays on the move are by design. When the pocket breaks down, the Clemson passer still has to improve his technique. He displays some good things under pressure – including basic footwork – but not enough to be a winning starter in the NFL early in his pro career.  Here are four plays from the Clemson-Georgia game that say a lot about the state of Boyd’s pocket game at this point of his career.

Good Feet – Good Improvisation

This is a 3rd-and-four pass with 11:22 in the first quarter. Clemson uses an 11 personnel, 2×1 receiver set and the primary option is Sammy Watkins who runs a slant-and-go coupled with Boyd’s pump fake off a quick play fake. However, the play breaks down fast. There are a lot of thinks happening fast on this play so you may have to watch the tape a few times.

[youtube=http://youtu.be/DVtwlQaLtR4]

Boyd fakes the ball to the runner, who drifts to the left edge to block the outside pressure. The quarterback sets his feet and delivers a quick shoulder fake as the pump fake on this first half of Watkins’ double move – the slant. As Boyd sets his feet, he sees the edge rusher begin with an inside path. The Clemson quarterback makes the appropriate reaction begins to move outside the defender’s path. However, the defender only fakes inside and dips outside the runner.

Boyd does a fine job of switching his feet the way coaches teach quarterbacks in drills. This switch orients Boyd so he can climb inside the pressure. He escapes to the left flat, turns his shoulder to the target and delivers the ball with a sidearm release on the run to his receiver Watkins, who does an excellent job reading the situation and working back to the quarterback.

This is a strong adjustment and a good example of quality footwork. However, the difference between Body and a quarterback like Wilson is that Wilson has illustrated that he will often wait a split-second longer for the edge rusher to declare his position and then react. If Boyd does the same, he either draws the defender inside and has a better path to the edge with a roll-out or the defender takes the outside path, Boyd never makes that initial move to the outside and he has an easier time climbing the pocket to deliver the ball in a spot where Watkins may not have to work back to a spot.

It’s a small detail, but it’s details that reduce errors and generate big plays. It’s why in college football Terrelle Pyror and Russell Wilson are both “stars” but one is far ahead of the other at the NFL level and it has nothing to do with the quality of surrounding talent.

Sometimes the option isn’t to move. 

There are times where a quarterback has to recognize that he must stand in the pocket and deliver the ball fast or miss an opportunity for a positive play. Boyd’s second touchdown of the night is a good example. This is an 11-yard slant thrown with a sidearm release and behind Watkins from a 2×1 receiver, 11 personnel set with 9:10 in the first quarter. Georgia is playing a 3-4 defense with both safeties deep and the cornerbacks playing off the outside receivers.

[youtube=http://youtu.be/3BnbLIC5yyM]

Boyd begins the play with a thorough play fake on the zone read action, getting the ball in and out of the belly of the runner. The pressure doesn’t buy the fake and constricts the edges of the pocket. It’s a quick reaction by Boyd to deliver the ball. Note that he doesn’t move his feet between the time he retracts the ball from the belly of the back through the release of the ball. This is fluid play-making.

While Watkins work at the catch point and after the catch is the attention-getter, the fact that Boyd reacts this fast and isn’t robotic about his form at the cost of missing this play is a good thing. I like that Boyd can process this fast in the short game. If he can demonstrate this skill with greater consistency in the deep intermediate and deep game and throw receivers open, he’ll be on his way to becoming a good pro prospect. Check out the section of this article on Russell Wilson where he throws open his receiver against a double A-gap blitz from Virginia Tech as an example. 

Interior Pressure

Here is an attempt to the running back Rodrick McDowell on a 3rd-and-5 check-down with 13:50 in the first quarter. Once again, Clemson is operating from a 2×1 receiver, 11 personnel pistol.

[youtube=http://youtu.be/SV3SYMr-970]

The linebacker does a solid job of disguising the pressure, but Boyd still has time to react. This is also true of the defensive lineman whose helmet is to the inside shoulder of his blocker on the same side of the blitz. Boyd needs to read these two defenders and climb the pocket to the opposite side. If he steps up and delivers the ball with his feet under him to the runner in the flat, it’s likely a completion.

Boyd’s reaction is to retreat. He slides to the right while backing away and throws the ball off his back foot with the defender wrapping him. The pass is too high for the receiver. Tough play, but good pro quarterbacks make this tough play look easy. Interior pressure is difficult for every quarterback, but with this much lead time and the position of these defenders, a good pro handles it.

Quick Decisions Need to become more consistent 

Boyd has to become more decisive and use it to harness his athleticism into a weapon that doesn’t self-destruct. This is a 3rd-and-8 pass with 2:36 in the first quarter from a 2×2 receiver, 10 personnel pistol. There’s press coverage on this play and outside linebackers threatening pressure off the edge. No.84 is running a twist with the defensive end at the bottom of the screen.

[youtube=http://youtu.be/bBYHyrBxLJA]

This twist distracts the right side of the Clemson line from the defensive end getting a free rush from the edge. Boyd looks left as this is happening and has his running back open in the flat. However, Boyd either didn’t read the threat of pressure off that edge or he’s too confident in his ability to avoid it.

The result is that Boyd holds onto the ball too long while in position to deliver an easy check down to the runner in the flat who has space to run because the defenders on the two outside receivers before the snap drop into coverage. Boyd opts to deal with the defensive end instead, but underestimates the athleticism of his opponent and has to throw the ball away – coming dangerous close to an intentional grounding call.

This is an error in judgement not just with the opponent, but situational football. Take the safe completion on 3rd-and-eight and allow the receiver to do the work after the catch in open space. The running back should be able to make one man miss. That’s his job. If it doesn’t work, it’s still the first quarter in a close game; don’t take unnecessary risks.

I still have more to study of Boyd’s game, but at this point these four plays are an illustration of a player with some feel for the pocket and room to grow, but not enough skill under pressure  that I’d compare him with the best prospects of recent quarterback classes.

For analysis of skill players in this year’s draft class, download the 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio.The 2014 RSP will available April 1 and if you pre-order before February 10, you get a 10 percent discount. Better yet, if you’re a fantasy owner the 56-page Post-Draft Add-on comes with the 2012 – 2014 RSPs at no additional charge and available for download within a week after the NFL Draft. Best, yet, 10 percent of every sale is donated to Darkness to Light to combat sexual abuse. You can purchase past editions of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio for just $9.95 apiece.

Futures: Clemson WR Sammy Watkins

0 Comments read 2014 NFL Draft, Players, Wide Receiver
Watkins has the upside to lap the field of some fine receiver prospects when it comes to NFL potential. Photo by PDA.Photo.
Watkins has the upside to lap the field of some fine receiver prospects when it comes to NFL potential. Photo by PDA.Photo.

It seems ridiculous to label a wide receiver with an 82-catch, 1219-yard, 12-touchdown debut as “unsung,” but consider the company Sammy Watkins kept his freshman year. The Clemson wide receiver is one of only four players in the history of college football to earn First Team All-America honors as a true freshman. The other three were Herschel Walker, Marshall Faulk, and Adrian Peterson.

A semester later, Watkins was arrested for possession of a controlled substance. This led to a two-game suspension and he missed two other contests with injuries. The result was an underwhelming sophomore effort of 57 catches, 708 yards, and 3 touchdowns. It’s what happens when a first-year college receiver ditches Walker, Faulk, and Peterson for the company of Vyvanse, Adderall, and Mary Jane.

By all means laud the talents of Marqise Lee, Mike Evans, Amari Cooper, Donte Moncrief and Jordan Mathews. They’ve all earned it. But Watkins at his best laps this field of potent contenders for the crown of top receiver in college football. (I purposely left one receiver off this list, because I’ll be writing about him another week.)

Watkins has done the best job of these players at integrating his physical, conceptual, and technical skill sets at the position at this stage of his career. And as polished as he is, there is room for him to get better. If Watkins were a creation of real-life Dr. Frankenstein, the mad scientist would have spliced the genetic material of Percy Harvin’s rugged, explosive athleticism and Brandon Lloyd’s route savvy and mind-bending body control without the migraines or mood swings.

Read the rest at Football Outsiders

Reads Listens Views 9/6/2013

0 Comments read Reads Listens Views
He'll be back . . .
Hawaii, he’ll be back . . .

Views I: The One Specific Type of Play Where Speed Impresses

[youtube=http://youtu.be/7DhkdDl41WU]

As studly as this play is, without his skills that account for 95% of his talent I wouldn’t have cared less. Still fun to see a 230-lb. back outpace a good angle by a defensive back. By the way stay tuned for my analysis on Clemson wide receiver Sammy Watkins, who in my opinion has the ability to lap the field of every college wide receiver playing – except for one. I’ll be writing about that guy, too.

Tom Melton, I see you.

Listens I:

[youtube=http://youtu.be/OFj19M9RqT0]

Thanks to Bryan Zukowski, who is often my go-to guy for quality vids. He knows a kickin’ drummer when he hears one.

Thanks

copy-inverted-2013-rsp.png

If you’re new to the RSP, thanks for reading. I post 3-5 times a week and one of those posts is this Friday ritual where I link to material I’m consuming around the web: football articles, non-football articles, music, videos, spoken word, photos, you name it. It’s also where I thank you for supporting this blog as a reader and most important, downloading the Rookie Scouting Portfolio publication.

Why Buy The RSP? Because you not only learn the ins and outs of the rookies who get drafted, but you get the low-down on UDFAs and small-school projects. Kenbrell Thompkins, Zach Sudfeld, Marlon Brown, and Benny Cunningham are good examples from this year alone.

For $19.95 you get a 1200-page pre-draft publication that is one-part 200-page draft magazine bookmarked for easy reading and other-part 1000-page tome that shows all the work to make the front half insightful: grading checklists for each player according to his position, a glossary that defines the grading system and each thing I score, and all my play-by-play notes on each player. I show my math for even the most diehard, nut-job – and I have plenty of them (they’re my kind of people).

You also get another 150-200 page post-draft document that updates rankings based on player fit with his new team, tiered dynasty rankings, and draft value analysis based on dynasty drafts. This RSP will help you this year, next year, and often times the year after in you dynasty drafts, re-drafts, and the waiver wire. Knowledge is power and you’ll be able to see the signs a little sooner when a player is poised for a breakout.

Past issues (2006-2012) are available for $9.95 apiece and I donate 10 percent of every RSP sale to Darkness To Light, a non-profit whose mission is to prevent and address sexual abuse in communities through training people to be aware of the dynamics, the stats, and how to help victims of this crime. As football fans who send our children to school, sports camps, churches-synagogues-mosques, it’s important that adults understand how to address this issue so they aren’t negligent (legally or morally) due to ignorance.

Download the 2013 RSP Today

Views II: I Don’t Hate Big Business, But I Do Have Contempt For Their Methodology To Keep Customers Who Don’t Want Them

[youtube=http://youtu.be/xh1qCf-ohOQ]

Football Reads

Views III: Twerking + Vanity = You’re On Fire (Literally)

[youtube=http://youtu.be/863wwm28f4Y]

Non Football Reads

Listens II: Marcus Miller – “Jean Pierre”

[youtube=http://youtu.be/G7Q8Ual3coM]

My favorite electric bassist alive today.

On Scouting Wide Receivers

0 Comments read 2011 NFL Draft, 2012 NFL Draft, 2013 NFL Draft, 2014 NFL Draft, Players, Wide Receiver
If you're trying to find the next Dez Bryant, then data has a vital place but if you take the approach that tries to reverse engineer a process that is unintentionally based on the idea that all productive receivers are like Dez Bryant, it's misguided. Photo by A.J. Guel.
If you’re trying to find the next Dez Bryant, then data has a vital place but if you take the approach that tries to reverse engineer a process that is unintentionally based on the idea that all productive receivers are like Dez Bryant, it’s misguided. Photo by A.J. Guel.

I believe analytics have value, but the grading of wide receivers based heavily on speed, vertical skill, and production is an ambitious, but misguided idea. Further the application is the torturing of data to fit it into a preconceived idea and making it sound objective and scientific due to the use of quantitative data.  Unless the data is getting into some Nate Silver-like probability analysis, analytics is going to arrive at conclusions that are safe based on the past, but lack game-changing predictive value.

Some of my colleagues and friends at Football Outsiders, Pro Football Focus, and RotoViz will disagree.  And many of you will too, because you’ve bought the idea that what’s being studied is objective and scientific. There is often an air of certainty and black-and-white finality to the communication of this “quantitative” information that readers find more palatable than if “qualitative” information is delivered with the same tone. Numbers make people sound more powerful and intellectual even if the quality of the information isn’t well designed.

I can tell you that I write because I put words together in a pattern that you can read. It doesn’t mean that I’m writing well. The NFL has bought into analytics for reasons that are both sound and naive. Analytics should only get better over time and I believe in its future. I just don’t buy into it lock, stock, and barrel.  I think in this area of study with wide receivers, analytics needs to raise its standard and find another way.

The NFL will realize this about some methods of analytics sooner than later. Many teams are seeking a magic pill without fully understanding the manufacturing process that goes into it. Since they have been able to get this information for a modest fee and oftentimes at no charge in the early days (and we’re just emerging from the earliest of days in the era of analytics)  because these individuals and companies found the payment of notoriety an acceptable alternative to money.

It only makes sense that “quants” figured they could make the money off readers later if they couldn’t earn it from teams now. This dynamic is also changing, but it’s worth understanding the nature behind their relationship with the league. Fortunately for both parties, they will continue to work together and only deliver better products on and off the field.

I’m trying to do the same from a different vantage point. The more I watch wide receivers, the less I care about 40 times, vertical results, or broad jumps. Once a player meets the acceptable baselines for physical skills, the rest is about hands, technique, understanding defenses, consistency, and the capacity to improve.

I liked Kenbrell Thompkins, Marlon Brown, Austin Collie, (retired) Steve Smith, several other receivers lacking the headlining “analytical” formulas that use a variety of physical measurements and production to find “viable” prospects. What these players share is some evidence of “craft”. They weren’t perfect technicians at the college level or early in their NFL careers, but you could see evidence of a meticulous attention to detail that continued to get better.

This video does an excellent job of explaining why speed is the most overrated part of a wide receiver’s game. Speed should be seen as the icing and not the cake. Technique is the cake. It’s a great instructional guide on route releases and breaks, how they differ on the NFL level. Check it out. I continue to on a regular basis.

[youtube=http://youtu.be/ZLjgZc0sYIc]

For analysis of skill players in this year’s draft class, download the 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio available now. Better yet, if you’re a fantasy owner the 56-page Post-Draft Add-on comes with the 2013 RSP at no additional charge and available for download within a week after the NFL Draft. Best, yet, 10 percent of every sale is donated to Darkness to Light to combat sexual abuse. You can purchase past editions of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio for just $9.95 apiece.

Flashes: WR Allen Hurns, Miami

0 Comments read 2014 NFL Draft, Players, Wide Receiver
Receptions verus contact heighten my attention to a player's potential. Photo of Victor Cruz by Kat Vitulano
Receptions verus contact heighten my attention to a player’s potential. Photo of Victor Cruz by Kat Vitulano

Long-time college and NFL coach Dave Wannestedt told an ESPN crew that he awarded Dion Lewis a full ride to Pitt after watching just one play of the Browns running back’s high school tape. Sounds foolish, but I won’t lie: There are some plays impressive enough that you realize you’ve seen much of what you need to see. These are rare moments and other than Adrian Peterson, I can’t remember the last time I experienced that feeling about a player after witnessing one play.

While no magic pill, there is a type of play for wide receivers that is guaranteed to heighten my interest in a player. I call it the Money Catch. Give me a receiver who can make these consistently and I’m less concerned about his height, weight, 40-time, bench press, or stats. A receiver who demonstrates this skill may not become an NFL starter, but there are few quality NFL starters who lack this ability.

University of Miami wide receiver Allen Hurns flashes this skill. The 6’3″, 195-pound prospect also provides a good illustration of a technique flaw I’ve heard many pro receivers discuss: Leaving one’s feet to catch a target that doesn’t require it. I still have more to watch of Hurns’ game, but here are three clear examples of good technique and a habit that needs curbing.

Money Catch

[youtube=http://youtu.be/JT5gkKPpWiw]

This is a 3rd-and-16 pass from a 1×2 receiver, 11 personnel shotgun set from a 3-3-5 look. Quarterback Stephen Morris’ makes a fine throw for Hurns to have an opportunity to make the reception. Still, it’s the wide receiver on this pitch and catch who does the dirty work. Hurns finds the opening in the zone under one safety and inside another on this post route after getting an inside release on the corner in shallow zone.

One of the tougher aspects of a catch with impending contact is when a player gets “ping-ponged” or hit in succession in different directions so one hit ricochets him into another from the opposite direction. Hurns does a fine job of protecting the football on this target.

If I were to nitpick, the hand position to catch the football could be a little better. Ideal hand position would be for Hurns’ index fingers angled upward but point towards each other rather than at 12 o’clock. The hands should look a spider web. This technique reduces the likelihood of the ball sliding through the fingers.

Overall, a strong play.

Leaving Feet – Part I

[youtube=http://youtu.be/yjAR_4CS_6Y]

This target is a 3rd-and-7 pass for a 10-yard gain from the UM 31 with 2:38 in the half. Hurns is the single receiver from a 11 personnel, 1×2 shotgun set. He is lined outside the numbers in the right flat with two safeties split towards the hashes.

The CB on Hurns is playing seven yards off and bails early, leaving a cushion for Hurns to break his route at the first down marker. He makes the catch with his hands, but if you look closely, just as his hands make contact with the ball he leaves his feet. He’s already trying to get into position to run.

The idea is a good one, but this is where the habit of leaping to catch a ball when not required can create a lapse of concentration. Hurns fails to secure the ball with the initial touch and fights the ball into his body during his turn. While not conclusive, I believe his adjustment disorients him just enough that he takes the wrong path down field towards three defenders rather than running up the sideline.

I like that Hurns gains three yards after the catch and bounces off contact with a good finish, but if he catches the ball with his feet on the ground, turns and takes an outside path towards the cornerback in a one-on-one situation, I think he gains a lot more than three yards.

Leaving Feet – Part II

[youtube=http://youtu.be/3-lAJwFkXSQ]

This is a 2nd and goal from the six with 6:11 in the third quarter from another three-receiver, 11 personnel shotgun. Hurns runs the slant and drops the ball after an initial juggle of the target. Watch the two replays after the first airing and you’ll see where Hurns takes a long step to gather his body for a jump. Because the pass is a little late and to the back shoulder, Hurns cannot make a strong adjustment to the ball after this elongated step forces him to leave his feet.

The throw could have been better, but Hurns’ habit of going airborne – even if it’s not a jump with any height – not only diminishes Hurns’ ability to focus on looking the ball into his hands, but also creates situations where he commits to a direction before the target arrives.

For analysis of skill players in this year’s draft class, download the 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio.The 2014 RSP will available April 1 and if you pre-order before February 10, you get a 10 percent discount. Better yet, if you’re a fantasy owner the 56-page Post-Draft Add-on comes with the 2012 – 2014 RSPs at no additional charge and available for download within a week after the NFL Draft. Best, yet, 10 percent of every sale is donated to Darkness to Light to combat sexual abuse. You can purchase past editions of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio for just $9.95 apiece.