Posts tagged Matt Waldman

Boiler Room: Geno Smith and Gradkowski Tangent

Geno Smith reminds me of Tony Romo. I see it, but I also see the other players on that spectrum of style. See below. Photo by Football Schedule.
Geno Smith reminds many of Tony Romo. I see it, but I also see the other players on that spectrum of style. See below. Photo by Football Schedule.

Geno Smith may not be a quarterback I’m super-excited about as an NFL prospect, but it doesn’t mean he won’t develop into a decent starter. Smith’s game travels to the Boiler Room where I distill what makes him a solid prospect at the position, including a tangent about a player who belongs in the family of quarterbacking styles where Smith resides – Bruce Gradkowski.

A series I started this year at the RSP blog is The Boiler RoomOne of the challenges involved with player analysis is to be succinct with delivering the goods. As the author of an annual tome, I’m often a spectacular failure in this respect.

Even so, I will study a prospect and see a play unfold that does a great job of encapsulating that player’s skills. When I witness these moments, I try to imagine if I would include this play as part of a cut-up of highlights for a draft show at a major network or if I was working for an NFL organization creating cut-ups for a personnel director. Unlike the No-Huddle Series, The Boiler Room is focused on prospects I expect to be drafted, and often before the fourth round.

It’s incredibly difficult to boil down any player with just one play, much less a quarterback. Yet, if I need a play to add to the highlight reel that will help a team make a decision where to slot Geno Smith on its board, this is my nomination. Actually, I’m breaking my own rule and supplying two for Smith. Both plays are displays of pocket presence.

The Gradkowski Tangent

Before I do, I’m leading off this Boiler Room installment with a quarterback who I believe fits in the Tony Romo-Rich Gannon spectrum of quarterbacks where I would place Smith in terms of his playing style. If you’ve read my work at this blog long enough then you know I place great value on a quarterback’s skill to maneuver a pocket. A quarterback can have all the physical tools and accuracy to become an NFL superstar, but if he lacks the feel for the pocket and the mental and physical discipline to make the subtle adjustments in tight quarters to avoid the rush and stay prepared to throw the ball then the gloss of his promise is not as bright in my eyes.

Likewise, if the passer lacks the plus-arm but commands the pocket even as its walls are crumbling at his feet, then I at least know he’ll be a serviceable player. I’m not 100 percent on board with this statement, but I’m close.

This affords me a moment to talk about a player whose game I appreciate – perhaps too much when I first began a formal method of study for the Rookie Scouting Portfolio eight years ago, but in the scheme of quarterbacks that are still standing, perhaps not enough – Bruce Gradkowski. I thought the former Toledo star had as good or better feel for the game – and especially the pocket – than any of his peers in that 2006 quarterback class that included Jay Cutler, Matt Leinart, and Vince Young.

At the time, Gradkowski was the only passer in NCAA history to complete 70 percent of his passes for two seasons and this was in an offense where Gradkowski dropped from center. He also ran a 4.59-second 40 at the combine and was among the better all-around athletes at the position in the drills at the NFL Combine. I had Gradkowski ranked fourth behind Cutler, Young, and Leinart.

He was in a virtual tie with Leinart. The only reason I had the USC quarterback above Gradkowski was at that time, I wasn’t writing an RSP post-draft publication and I had to account for opportunity. What I didn’t expect was Gradkowski doing well enough in the preseason that Jon Gruden opted to start the rookie in Tampa  Bay.

I was tempted to wait on a quarterback in this RSPWP2 Draft, take Gradkowski, put him in a west coast offense, and damn the jeering from the cheap seats. The only thing that Gradkowski lacks is a franchise-caliber arm and if surrounded by great talent, he could have that Rich Gannon presence I believe Gruden saw in Gradkowski when the coach drafted the Toledo Rocket.

[youtube=http://youtu.be/gDWEiHxdw1U]

This was Gradkowski’s third touchdown in the fourth quarter to beat the Steelers in Heinz Field. If you didn’t know, the Steelers signed him in the offseason as Roethlisberger’s backup. In Todd Haley’s quick-decision, short(er)-passing offense, it’s a good fit.

Watch how economical Gradkowski is in the pocket. He’s also willing to step into the pocket and take the hit to make the throw and even the incomplete passes are accurate throws under pressure where he often throws open his target.

2:51, 3:20, and 6:19 to the end of the clip

[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b1k-EwFiLWM&start=220&w=560&h=315]

It’s a simple-looking throw, but the willingness to stand in the pocket and use his athleticism in tight spots and odd angles to distribute the ball under pressure is something that he has in common with Romo, Gannon, and Smith. These small plays make a difference. If you watched Jon Gruden’s QB camp with Matt Barkley this week, then you saw the coach tutor Barkley on the same basic play that grilled Andrew Luck for messing up at Stanford. The play is a short-to-long read that is practically an automatic dump to the fullback in the flat.

During the episode, Gruden laments that only the Peyton Mannings of the football world seem to realize that you “can’t lose money when you’re always making a profit.”  Young quarterbacks are often too aggressive and overconfident and they don’t know how to balance when to pick apart a team and when to go for the jugular. Gradkowski has this balance – just not the vast arm talent. This touchdown pass is another good example of how a player must be willing to stand in and own the pocket.

[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b1k-EwFiLWM&start=171&w=560&h=315]

This play required some eye manipulation and a pump fake to set up the safety and the patience to hang in the pocket to complete the throw on time. Gradkowski demonstrated this at Toledo and his stints with the Bucs, Rams, Browns, Bengals, and Raiders. The fact that I mentioned five teams in a seven-year career means Gradkowski is an utter failure if you’re a fantasy football owner, but only NFL media and marketing cares about your fantasy interests.

But if NFL operations – specifically individual team operations – values a player who can put his team in position to win. The final two plays on this video below are the type of plays that give a receiver a chance to win the game and Gradkowski has a knack for it.

[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b1k-EwFiLWM&start=379&w=560&h=315]

I’m not touting Gradowski as a future superstar. However, it is important to show that a quarterback can have long-term value in the NFL if arm strength isn’t at the top of his resume, but the top two bullet points are pocket presence and accuracy. He’s a savvy quarterback who I still believe can be an effective starter in the right situation.

Of course, there aren’t many of these situations in the league and fewer would value him as a long-term option. The importance of this tangent is that if Geno Smith were to fail as a starter that his style of quarterbacking will make him a viable long-term backup who can fill a need for several teams. It means Smith has little downside as a talent – even if he doesn’t work out as an initial investment with a team.

Smith in the Boiler

Unlike Gradkowski, Geno Smith has enough arm strength to earn a spot on a draft board for most teams as a future starter. What you just saw from Gradkowski is where I think Smith has potential. I like the Mountaineer’s wherewithal in the pocket.

This is a 3rd-and-18 pass with 9:23 in the third quarter and a 10-point lead at their own 29. Forget about analyzing Smith’s read of the coverage and just watch how he maneuvers a pocket against a four-man rush.

[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I1zqqutj6Uo&start=440w=560&h=315]

Maryland may only send four defenders, but the defense does a good job of constricting the pocket. The end forces the left tackle backfield and in this situation many quarterbacks try to break the pocket inside the right tackle and are dropped before they reach the line of scrimmage. Smith escapes the blind side rush with the intent to throw down field.

Although he his initial climb of the pocket is as fast as most quarterbacks move when they drop their eyes and run for the escape hatch, Smith’s head remains up and his eyes on his receivers. When he feels the defensive tackles collapsing the middle and clogging his passing lane, Smith moves just like the quarterback footwork drills you always see in practice but not performed this textbook in a game.

The West Virginia quarterback slides to his left, remains in a throwing position and find the comeback for positive yards. This leads to a punt, but with a 10-point lead in their own territory, this is a good outcome.

Maryland shows Smith the possibility that it is sending seven defenders on the next play; opting for five at the snap. What I like about this play is Smith’s ability to work though pressure up the middle.

[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I1zqqutj6Uo&start=495w=560&h=315]

This isn’t just a climb of the pocket. While a nice thing to see from all quarterbacks, I especially like the way Smith waits until the last moment to avoid the middle linebacker coming free of the running back up the middle. Although the difference is tenths – or even hundredths – of a second between a quarterback I’d consider patient and one who not, the extra beat that Smith waits to look down field before opting to reduce his shoulder and climb is a critical part of having “feel” for his surroundings.

I also like that he sees the pocket one step ahead and his already working to the inside of the next rusher so he can slide to the open lane and deliver the ball on this 2nd-and-two play. Although the receiver drops this pass in tight coverage and one could make a weak argument that tucking and running was a better recourse, I think if you isolate Smith’s skill to maneuver and deliver on this play and others like it, you see a budding field general.

I’m not as high on Smith as others, but I do believe he has the basic skills to develop into a successful starter and pocket presence tops the list.

For analysis of skill players in this year’s draft class, download the 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio available April 1. Prepayment is available now. Better yet, if you’re a fantasy owner the 56-page Post-Draft Add-on comes with the 2013 RSP at no additional charge. Best, yet, 10 percent of every sale is donated to Darkness to Light to combat sexual abuse. You can purchase past editions of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio for just $9.95 apiece.

Futures: OLBs Dion Jordan and Barkevious Mingo

Mingo's skill as a pass rusher tilts the field in favor of his teammates. Photo by Crawford Orthodontics.
Mingo’s skill as a pass rusher tilts the field in favor of his teammates. Photo by Crawford Orthodontics.

Imagine you’re considering two final candidates for a job. Both possess top-drawer talent, which is what you’d expect at this point if their resumes are the remaining two on your desk.

Candidate A is refined, smooth, and versatile. If you needed him to start today, he’d be up to speed and produce with minimal training. If you improved the rest of the surrounding talent in your workplace, Candidate A could become a star.

In contrast, there’s something disconcerting about Candidate B. You see how it could all go wrong if you opt for him – but that’s not what’s nagging you. It’s that his talent leaves you wondering if three years from now you’ll look back on your decision and conclude that you settled for less by taking Candidate A.

What Candidate B lacks in experience is compensated by a singular talent that not only jumps off the page, it grabs you by the neck and squeezes until your eyes bulge from their sockets. Candidate B carries more risk and he may never do everything as well as Candidate A, but he has the potential to do one thing so well that it could elevate the performance of your team’s surrounding talent.

Many organizations would take Candidate A and not look back. However, it is not that that clear cut.

A decade ago, I knew several people who worked for one of the top hospitality organizations in the world. This award-winning company’s philosophy on hiring placed a priority on talent over experience.

“Experience often means you spent more time ‘doing it wrong,’” one director told me. “We would rather hire someone with the basic talent for the job, the capacity to learn, and a personality geared to excel. The last two things we can’t teach. So when we spot it, we know we can teach the rest.”

There’s something appealing about this philosophy, but you have to know how to spot these behaviors beyond an interview. I believe the Baltimore Ravens have this perspective. Before NFL Network’s Daniel Jeremiah worked with the Eagles, he talked about his time with the Ravens in his old podcasts.

I remember him mentioning that one of the qualities Baltimore sought in players was a comfort level with – and penchant for – hitting. If it wasn’t there, they weren’t interested.

I believe the Steelers also have this on their list of fundamentals a player must possess. If these teams discover they were wrong about that player later on, he won’t last long with either team.

But an organization has to have a strong understanding of what they can and cannot teach a player. If they don’t possess this knowledge of what is and isn’t teachable – or worse yet, they lack these teaching skills as a staff – then you have what the Oakland Raiders are trying to work past with some of its personnel decisions.

This philosophical quandary underscores the difference of opinion that I bet a few teams may have when considering the talents of outside linebackers Dion Jordan and Barkevious Mingo. Both are exceptional athletes, but despite playing the same position these two are as Robert Frost once wrote, “two roads diverged in the wood.”

The consensus prefers Jordan, who is the more experienced and versatile of the two. The question is whether Mingo – a player with higher risk-reward potential – represents to one NFL team what Frost meant as, “the road less traveled by will make all the difference.”

Read the rest at Football Outsiders

 

Character, Media, and the NFL Draft: A Sour Cocktail

It's a bad idea to evaluate a smile the way you critique his release. Photo by PDA.Photo
It’s a bad idea to evaluate his smile the way you critique his release. And I dare say that I’m more qualified than most of my peers when it comes to interviewing a perspective employee. Photo by PDA.Photo

I’m 43 years old. Since I was 15, I’ve held 16 types of jobs with 9 different companies. I’m not counting the four soul-sucking hours I spent as a stock boy at a Winn-Dixie.

On my lunch hour at that job, I walked out the door and kept walking. Two miles later, I made a beeline to the manager’s office at the apartment complex where I grew up. The next morning I was collecting trash and cleaning the grounds.

Yeah, I would have rather hauled other people’s garbage and take a blower to a parking lot filled with pollen that made “sinus irritation” an understatement than to stand around a grocery store all day. There’s considerable irony to this story once you learn that my wife and daughter have an ongoing joke that the two grocery stores in town are my mistresses: Kroger my ‘around the way girl’ and Earth Fare my ‘hippy chick’.  Other than work and home, these two places are where you can find me.

Good thing I wasn’t a star quarterback or the way I ended that job might earned this kind of headline:

 NFL Draft Analyst calls star quarterback ‘unreliable.’ Cites behavior of quitting jobs without notice among evidence.  

I’m only half-kidding. Although not a serious example of behavior that would even register amid the range of nitpicking stories on character that we read this time of year, it is an example of how a lack of context can alter the truth. A writer could easily speculate that a guy who walks off the job without notice is not the best candidate to lead a team.

Judging by what has been said about Cam Newton and Geno Smith, some writers relish a challenge. They examine smiles and facial expressions with the same fervor and methodology as tracking short shuttles and dissecting throwing motions. This is where their experiences as a football players fails them.

They fail to consider that the greatest amount of emotional maturation from childhood to adulthood happens between the ages of 16-25. This is when young people are given their first adult-level responsibilities. With new responsibilities comes new experiences.

And if you’ve been a human long enough, then you know that experience is the product of mistakes.

My career in the workplace didn’t start well.  Between the ages of 16 and 21, I walked off three of my first five jobs without notice. I could provide a convincing argument that two of those three walkouts were based on extenuating circumstances. However at the end of the day, I didn’t give notice and that is on me.

If I was a star quarterback and a private investigation firm was looking into my behavior, they might report to a director of scouting that I was unreliable, unprofessional, and immature. If a general manager opted to use these three adjectives to describe me in this context during a phone call or email with a draft analyst, I might be labeled a character risk and potential bust.

But what if I told you that those jobs were taken so I could practice my craft of quarterbacking at the only time of day where I had access to the tools and resources to get better?

What if you knew I woke up at 4:30 a.m. each morning during the summers, worked this part-time job until 1:30 p.m., and then from 2:00 p.m. to 8:00 p.m., I practiced without fail?

What if I told you that the company hired me after I told them of my scheduling needs and it was only after several weeks or months that the company’s needs changed. Rather than hiring someone for those needs, they gave me an ultimatum to either switch my hours or walk out the door and not come back?

Was I immature or were my priorities based on developing the skills of my future job over being flexible to the new terms of my present one? While I wasn’t a star quarterback, I was a musician who couldn’t practice after 8:00 p.m. without disturbing neighbors and needed my nights free to perform with others.

Even if the right answer is still being flexible, context is important.

If I was a college quarterback and this was a question clouding my character, I could only hope that those team-hired investigators were thorough. Even then, I’d have to wonder if those teams wouldn’t use these questions as a bargaining tool to drive down my stock and ultimately the price of my rookie contract.

Around the same time a college quarterback would be making the transition to a professional career, I was making mine. A couple of years earlier, I stopped performing music and changed career paths. My next five jobs were part of a 12-year career with the same employer.

I began as an entry-level employee while in school. Within a year I was a part-time supervisor and by the time I finished college, I was an assistant manager. Over that four-year period between the final years of my college life and the early years of my full-time professional career, I had probably interviewed, hired, trained, and disciplined a few hundred employees.

I made my share of mistakes. I made poor hiring decisions and I mishandled issues with clients, employees, and customers. In hindsight, most of these mistakes happened because I was young, inexperienced, and often immature.

There was a back I encountered 20 years ago whose physical skills and level of maturity reminds me of Christine Michael. This back ultimately had a successful career. Photo by SD Dirk.
There was a back I encountered 20 years ago whose immense physical skills and level of maturity reminds me of Christine Michael. This back ultimately had a successful career. Photo by SD Dirk.

During my brief time covering football practices a couple of years earlier, I encountered a star running back who was also displaying his own youthful immaturity. He rarely made it to post-practice interviews during his career.

His teammates intimated to me that their teammate was not a guy to be counted on. I got a sense that they didn’t like him very much. It wasn’t what they said, but how they said it. They rolled their eyes, shook their heads, and made dismissive sighs when I asked if this lead dog of the Georgia football team would be coming to the assigned sessions.

What they would say in conjunction with their physical displays of dissatisfaction was He’s never on time. I also had a friend who had a class with the runner. He told me stories about this future first-round pick of the Arizona Cardinals, including how the back spent more time carving his name into the desk rather than listening to the teacher.

I had good info to write about his immaturity before he was drafted, but I didn’t think it was worth discussing. I knew lots of students who came to class hung over, slept through lectures, or did half-hearted work with their assignments and still transformed into quality professionals in their respective careers. Why should Garrison Hearst be any different?

For all I really knew, Hearst’s teammates liked him even if they didn’t like that he was often late or a no-show to after-practice press sessions. It’s not hard to imagine that Hearst cared more about football than an interview or an English class. During my 20’s I thought Hearst was a slacker, but 20 years later and with a lot more life experience and perspective, I have a different view.  One of those experiences happened just a couple of years later.

Imagine being 22 or 23 and months away from earning a first-round contract with a professional football team. Better yet, imagine being 22, winning $5 million in the lottery, and going to work in a job that you don’t like. How difficult it must be to stay focused when what you’re doing won’t make a real difference in how you will earn the majority of your money?

Just like any of these prospects, we know the right answer: keep the straight and narrow. But it doesn’t change how difficult it is to maintain these priorities. Even if the fear of becoming academically ineligible during the season and watching one’s draft stock plummet might seem like a strong enough deterrent, it wouldn’t be easy.

I know it wouldn’t.

When I was 24 and two months from graduating from Georgia with dual majors in English and Spanish, my company promoted me to a full-time position at the time I was also headlong in a serious relationship with a woman who was moving in with me. That 500-level linguistics course that was 2.5 hours per session and taught in the native language by the head of the Spanish department three times a week was the lowest priority in my life.

I was in love. This was one of my last two classes. And I was getting paid.

And if you knew how little I was making, then you would realize the depths of my immaturity. I thought I could juggle it all. Only when I learned (all too late) that the final exam in this course had material on the front and back of each page did it hit me that I wasn’t thinking straight.

I failed the test, earned my first-ever D in the last class of my academic career, and settled for a major in English and minor in Spanish.

Someone I know and trust (and so do you if I told you who it was) with connections to a college program that has a marquee player entering this 2013 NFL class told me that this player barely emerged unscathed from a  similar scenario. When I heard about this, I understood the difficulty of maintaining one’s focus and priorities.  And he really is about to get paid! 

This prospect is dedicated to learning the game of football, but he lacked the maturity to keep his academics from becoming a potential problem that could have hurt him and his team. This probably earned the ire of his teammates and coaches. It’s the type of situation that could have been leaked to the media in a way where a writer could deem the prospect as “not well-liked,” or “lacking a good work ethic.”

Would you take a chance on a player in his early 20’s who works his ass off in practice and the film room, but had issues balancing his priorities with the classroom? In the scheme of things, I’d say it’s non-issue.

It became a non-issue for me. My immaturity as a student and young employee wasn’t fatal to my career. My successes outweighed my failures and I eventually became an operations manager, then a director at this company.

I can safely estimate that by the time I transitioned from a career in management to a writing career, I had interviewed, trained, and managed thousands of people ranging from entry-level employees to middle management. I was one of the few people in our company’s history who had a dual role as an operations manager and primary client contact.

I wasn’t a corporate superstar, but I was good at my job. I bet my career experiences are no different from many of you reading this.

If you have at least 10 years of experience as a manager in an environment that is a mix of blue-collar and white-collar cultures then you have probably faced unusual situations in your jobs where the everyday priorities of production, efficiency, and quality paled in comparison:

  • Bomb threats.
  • Fist fights between entry-level employees.
  • A broken windshield courtesy of a disgruntled former employee who was fired because I wouldn’t allow him to sexually harass employees.
  • Workplace romances.
  • Challenging and dysfunctional client relationships.

Despite the way I make it sound, most of my employees enjoyed working with me and these crazy situations above were rare events. Like most, the workplace has its headaches and if you’ve worked long enough then you’ve seen things you’d never think would happen.

It’s these experiences that add perspective about human nature. The capacity for a young adult to undergo a quick maturation is one of those major lessons.

Whether it’s the NFL, a blue-collar job, or Corporate America, there’s nothing like looking Career Death in the eye  to grow up fast. It happens to everyone. What’s even more profound is when you are given the responsibility as Career Death Incarnate to a soon-to-be former employee.

One of my worst days as a manager came when I had to fire a young woman who was avoiding her assignments. Even when she was working, she mistreated customers. During her firing, this part-time employee told me she had been recently been diagnosed with a treatable form of cancer. She was afraid to tell her mother, who had also been diagnosed just months earlier.

Although paling in comparison to her situation, firing someone dealing with cancer was not a good day in my life.

As unbelievable as it seems, she dropped by the office a few weeks later to ‘thank me for firing her’. Apparently, our conversation motivated her to find a job in an environment better suited to her needs. She told her mother about her cancer and it brought them closer. It was a blessing for them – and a minor, but rare blessing that she took the time to share it with me.

The experience of getting fired helped her make changes in her life. Her mistakes put her on a road towards gaining the maturity needed to make her life more fulfilling. This maturation in the face of a career death – parallels what many young NFL players face.

If there's a player who looked Career Death in the eye multiple times and matured, but still was far from a perfect professional and role model, Favre tops the list. Photo by Elvis Kennedy.
If there’s a player who looked Career Death in the eye multiple times and matured, but still was far from a perfect professional and role model, Favre tops the list. Photo by Elvis Kennedy.

I think Garrison Hearst stared Career Death in the eye a few times. The first-round pick of the Cardinals (third overall) had a rough start to his career. He drew the ire of Buddy Ryan, who once gave Hearst a wheelbarrow filled with sand to tote around practice after his rehab from a knee injury wasn’t going as fast as Ryan believed it should.

Eventually, Hearst had to fight is way from the bottom of the Bengals depth chart to split time with Kijana Carter. Even then he wasn’t offered a contract on par with Eric Bienemy. Hearst’s agent had to fight hard for the 49ers to even give Hearst a shot and when the former Georgia star began camp in San Francisco, Terry Kirby was the starter.

This all happened before Hearst had an ankle injury that was so bad – and complications during recovery that were even worse – that most players would have never seen a field again. Hearst’s experiences made him a battle-tested professional.

[youtube=http://youtu.be/5dgrjrp6jXE]

Physically, Hearst could have made this run early in his career but I believe the adversity he overcame made him mentally prepared to finish a 96-yard run in overtime.

But the maturity to be a prepared professional and a media-savvy one was something that Hearst never learned during his career. When asked about the idea of gays in the locker room, Hearst’s growth as a professional didn’t include dealing with people:

“Aww, hell no! I don’t want any faggots on my team. I know this might not be what people want to hear, but that’s a punk. I don’t want any faggots in this locker room.” 

While I don’t like Hearst’s views (at that time of his life) and perhaps someday these views will (hopefully) pose a greater problem to a team, I’m more concerned about whether a player will show up to work on time and give 100 percent to his job.

If you’ve worked with or led a group of people, you learn that not every member of a team is likable or reliable in situations outside the job. However, when it comes to his specific job, there may be few who are better.

I can think of several examples from my work experiences. These were people who made youthful mistakes before their employment or even had major issues on the job, but grew up and became good at what they did:

  • The trumpet player who removed his wedding ring before every gig, but was always on-time, demonstrated great range, and read everything right the first time. 
  • The short-order cook who would have gotten punched out by a customer if he had to ever deal with one, but never messed up an order and could balance multiple tickets at a time.
  • A former employee, who had a DUI charge reduced and expunged from his record as a teen, but a creative, reliable, and resourceful analyst.
  • A co-worker who was in a string of bad relationships and was once disciplined due to an inappropriate relationship with another co-worker that nearly got her fired before her career began, but eventually became a charismatic manager and teacher.

In a year or two, we might be able to add Christine Michael to this list. His displays of immaturity included sleeping through his Combine interviews. Still, it hasn’t  kept me from ranking him within the tier of future starters in this running back class.

I have no doubt that he can mature into a reliable player with a long, productive career. I also have no doubt that he could get cut and never fulfill his talent. However, based on my experiences with young adults, I would rather count on the likelihood that a young man is going to make mistakes and learn from them. Even commenting on it is a dangerous game because the weight it adds to an evaluation can be heavier than warranted.

Even if you’re a pessimist you have to concede that people often mature just enough to compartmentalize their flaws. At the very least they become good at preventing their issues from bleeding into their work long enough to address the issues and overcome them.  I know this was the case for me.

I shared my career history with you because I feel confident that my skills and experience have helped me become a decent judge of character. And if someone with my qualifications and experience is reticent to evaluate and judge a prospect’s personality and character when my available data is news clippings, press conferences, and second and third-hand reports, then why should anyone give credence to these assessments from other writers or television analysts who lack any real experience interviewing, managing, or leading adults?

Outside of well-documented problems involving drugs, alcohol, and violent crime, any members of media passing significant judgment on an NFL prospect’s character that changes the outcome of his evaluation  – even if they are eventually proven correct – are making a foolish decision on principle.

The fact is unless we look these players in the eye, ask them the tough questions, and have past experience as managers living with a player’s behavior – better or worse – as our employees, then we don’t know.

Sometimes it’s okay to say, I don’t know. 

For analysis of skill players in this year’s draft class, download the 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio available April 1. Prepayment is available now. Better yet, if you’re a fantasy owner the 56-page Post-Draft Add-on comes with the 2013 RSP at no additional charge. Best, yet, 10 percent of every sale is donated to Darkness to Light to combat sexual abuse. You can purchase past editions of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio for just $9.95 apiece.

Behind the Scenes Thoughts on Tight Ends in 2013 RSP

Eifert is the one tight end where I have nothing to add behind the scenes. He's good and I feel good about him. Photo by Neon Tommy.
Eifert is the one tight end where I have nothing to add behind the scenes. He’s good and I feel good about him. Photo by Neon Tommy.

With the launch of the 2013 RSP, Sigmund Bloom suggested that I share a behind the scenes retelling of my thoughts and feelings about players – something that delves deeper than rankings and profiles of skills ad potential. A few days ago, I wrote about running backs. Today, it’s tight end – a position where three years from now I can imagine three players I had ranked in the wrong direction. It’s also a class where I could have justified making a good player look great (but didn’t).

The 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio is now available for download. One of my favorite things about this time of year is the reactions I get from new readers. It reflects everything that I want to tell those unfamiliar with the RSP:

“I actually won last yrs RSP in a contest from you last yr. Definitely found out it was worth buying, just got this yrs!!”

-Mark Caneva

“Purchased @MattWaldman RSP last night. Barely scratched the surface. Much more depth than I expected.”

-Nate Hodges

I can tell you that I’m not exaggerating when I describe the RSP, but it’s like telling someone what ‘hot’ feels like if they’ve never experienced the sensation. So if you’re reading these behind the scenes posts and wondering whether to make the jump, what I can tell you is that I’ve been doing this for eight years and other than the rare person who expected this to be an analysis of prospects at every position, most tell me the RSP exceeded their expectations.

What You Should Know About My Rankings Process

I have five steps that help me develop my rankings. They are each a process in their own right.  If I were working for an NFL team as a decision-maker in this capacity it would be six, but I’m a one-man band and I don’t interview prospects that often. I also don’t have resources to hire a PI firm.

These steps aren’t meant to impress you. I don’t have the end-all, be-all rankings. I think they are helpful and entertaining, but the act of ranking players is a troublesome process without a specific team philosophy in mind.

Evaluating player performance is difficult because you have to try to objectify a lot of subjective material. There are also times where you don’t get to see a specific skill from a player because of game situations or the system featuring the player. How to factor this into an evaluation process that ends with a ranking is challenging.

Despite its problematic nature, these processes help me learn more about the game, the players, and my strengths and weaknesses as an evaluator. If you want to learn more about the steps, read the beginning of this post.

Predicting My Errors in Judgment Three Years From Now

If I were to guess three years from now where I will err with my rankings, I believe it will be that I ranked Gavin Escobar too high and both Joseph Fauria and Ryan Griffin too low. I can see reversing the order of their ranking because I think Griffin is more athletic than some realize and Escobar much less when it comes to blocking – an important aspects of the game that many project Escobar will get better.

Griffin made plays as a receiver that I thought were as impressive as Escobar and he’s a better blocker right now. I also thought Griffin was asked to make tougher plays as a receiver where Escobar was often fed the ball in ways that generate easy yards. Not that I could fault Escobar with smart play calling, which is why I have him over Griffin and Fauria. It’s just something I feel and I behind the scenes take that I’m sharing.

From the gut: Fauria is underrated. From my analysis: I had to underrate him. Photo by Neon Tommy.
From the gut: Fauria is underrated. From my analysis: I had to underrate him. Photo by Neon Tommy.

When I first watched Fauria, I had a gut feeling that he would be a good NFL prospect. I think there’s a good chance he’ll prove that he’s athletic enough to block and become an every-down tight end – not just a red zone receiver. There were several plays over the years where I saw Fauria make that one move that I didn’t think he’d be able to make. It was either a cut block, sinking his hips on a hard break, or an adjustment to the ball in an area that belied his size.

Again, this was a gut feeling and not a reason enough for me to rank him ahead of Escobar. I wanted to do it. If Fauria is matched with team where it looks like a good fit, I might make the adjustment.

I Could Have Ranked Him Higher, But My Conscience Wouldn’t Let Me

I’m talking about Zach Ertz. Based on my system of adding skill sets, Ertz has enough starter and committee level skills for me to make a reasonable argument for him 3-6 spots higher in my rankings. The higher it went, the more it would have been a stretch, but I think I could have made a convincing argument to everyone but myself.  The reason is that there were too many skill sets where I could have placed Ertz in the reserve tier instead of the committee tier: vision, balance, blocking, and power.

Ertz may go high, but I did't love his game enough to match that projection in my rankings. Photo by Han Shot First.
Ertz may go high, but I didn’t love his game enough to match that projection in my rankings. Photo by Han Shot First.

His balance is already a skill set that I gave a reserve-caliber ranking and to me that’s a red flag. Great football players – especially those who handle the ball have excellent balance. Ertz is a somewhat high-cut athlete in the first place and most high-cut guys lack great balance.

I think Ertz has potential as a situational receiver, which isn’t a bad thing at all in the scheme of having pro potential. I just have difficulty projecting him as a top-tier prospect at his position in this class despite the fact that he’s likely to earn a that kind of pick.

I Still Like These Guys

Western Kentucky’s Jack Doyle isn’t fast and he looks ungainly for his 6’5″, 253-pound frame. He’ll never be a stud athlete who can become a major threat in the NFL. However, he plays a smart game, he’s tough (he was sick the entire week of practice at the Senior Bowl), and he can catch the football. Fantasy owners will probably never have reason to pick him except as a reserve in the deepest of leagues where tight ends are a premium. Yet, just the fact that I can imagine they might have that future value is another indication that I think he’ll be one of those guys who might force his dreams to die a hard death and carves out a spot.

Zach Sudfeld of Nevada has enough athleticism where I think he could surprise. His 6’7″ frame and soft hands make him a nice option on seams, fades, and corner routes. He’s also a fluid receiver who displays comfort in tight coverage. I also think his blocking is underrated. It’s definitely better than the likes of  Jordan Reed, Chris Gragg, Gavin Escobar, and Zach Ertz – all players I ranked ahead of Sudfeld. If health is no longer a question mark, I wouldn’t be surprised if he becomes a competent reserve who sees time in a starting lineup.

For analysis of skill players in this year’s draft class, download the 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio available April 1. Prepayment is available now. Better yet, if you’re a fantasy owner the 56-page Post-Draft Add-on comes with the 2013 RSP at no additional charge. Best, yet, 10 percent of every sale is donated to Darkness to Light to combat sexual abuse. You can purchase past editions of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio for just $9.95 apiece.

Reads Listens Views 4/5/2013

[youtube=http://youtu.be/M0V3M6yM3_w]

Would Josh Gordon have been the top option in the 2013 draft class if his college career wasn’t filled with off-field missteps? I thought he was an option in the late-first to early-second rounds of 2012 rookie drafts, which would have placed him in the conversation with this year’s class. If you wish to take a liberal perspective and count his first year in Cleveland as his “senior year,” considering hadn’t played football the year before, then I think it’s a fair argument to make that Cleveland did well with its supplemental pick. I think they make a good argument that he’s better than any receiver in the 2013 class. It may not be true, but the fact there’s a valid argument makes it good enough.

Listens

[youtube=http://youtu.be/p4ASTMFN-h4]

Roger Ebert

You probably heard that Roger Ebert passed away yesterday. He was a cultural icon. I hope you read his amazing blog, which he was transforming into a project expected to go online next week called Ebert Digital. Actually, if there is one piece I recommend you read this week that is not about football, it’s this Chris Jones profile of Ebert published in Esquire almost 26 months ago. It’s one of the great magazine profiles I’ve read.

Thank You

It has been a few weeks since I’ve posted a Reads Listens Views. For those of you new to the RSP blog, I write this type of post most Friday’s. It’s my chance to link to other fantastic football and non-football content. Most of all it’s a chance to thank you.

And it feels like it has been a while since I’ve posted a Friday piece, so I owe you a long overdue word of thanks. The response to the 2013 RSP has been phenomenal. A lot of kind words via email, Twitter, and a few posted on the blog, too. I will update readers later this year when I send the pledged percentage 10 percent of each saleto Darkness to Light.

If you haven’t bought the RSP before, do yourself a favor. Once you do you’ll understand why it is becoming a Rite of Football Spring for those who want the goods on skill position players entering the NFL draft.

Football Reads


Views

[youtube=http://youtu.be/WfwNmpRB8-4]

For a run-oriented era by comparison of today’s pass-happy NFL, there’s some fancy pitching and catching between Ken Anderson and Isaac Curtis. The YouTube commentary is also worth a read from it’s writer with the handle “The Bengals Mind” :

Isaac Curtis had world class speed running a 9.30 seconds in the 100 yard dash making him faster then the legendary Jesse Owens who ran it in 9.40 seconds. To help put that in a even better prospective Usain Bolt can run the 100 yard dash in the 8.9 range meaning Curtis was only around .4(Four Tenths of a Second) slower than Usain Bolt. He was also a superb clutch catcher but even more importantly was how the soft spoken Curtis handled himself on and off the field. Kenny Anderson made it no secret that Curtis was his favorite target saying that when ever he was in trouble he would throw it to Curtis knowing he would catch it.

In the 1973 draft, most experts had Steve Holden as the best wide receiver coming out of college but Paul Brown had Isaac Curtis as the number one wide receiver prospect. So when Paul selected Isaac Curtis with the 15th overall pick, the Cleveland Browns organization and fans celebrated as it allowed them to draft Steve Holden with the 16th pick. They told Paul Brown that “they couldn’t figure out why he took Isaac” and Brown said “I may be 65 but I think I still know talent when I see it.” By the end of his rookie year, Paul Brown was already comparing him to Paul Warfield. Ironic, since Isaac Curtis had some of his best games against the Browns.

Non-Football Reads

ViewsHow to Truly Listen (H/T to Joe Bryant)

[youtube=http://youtu.be/IU3V6zNER4g]

 For analysis of skill players in this year’s draft class, download the 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio available April 1. Prepayment is available now. Better yet, if you’re a fantasy owner the 56-page Post-Draft Add-on comes with the 2013 RSP at no additional charge. Best, yet, 10 percent of every sale is donated to Darkness to Light to combat sexual abuse. You can purchase past editions of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio for just $9.95 apiece.

Futures: Unknown, Unsung, and Underappreciated

There's a player in this draft who reminds me of Cruz in the sense that he's an unknown and underrated. Photo by Football Schedule.
There’s a player in this draft who reminds me of Cruz in the sense that he’s an unknown and underrated. Photo by Football Schedule.

When you’re in my line of work, the most memorable players are often the unknowns, the underappreciated, and the underdogs. One of the most memorable for me was a player I watched in September 2006, whose performance against a top-ranked Tennessee Volunteers defense was so good that it belied his 24-carry, 72-yard box-score entry.

Here’s what I wrote about him in my game notes:

This was an impressive performance for [prospect], who
demonstrated unequivocally that he is a tough, physical back than can carry the load and get the difficult yardage as well as break the play outside or beat defenders in the open field with his moves and quickness. He rarely went down on the first hit unless the defender made a perfect form tackle.

It’s very impressive how low he can run in short yardage situations to get 2-3 tough yards against stacked defenses. Players bounced off [prospect] repeatedly in this game. This was one of the more impressive efforts I saw from a back all year.

These are notes meant for my own use, otherwise I would have found an appropriate synonym for “impressive,” so I didn’t use it three times in a five-sentence span. This 5-foot-11, 192-pound runner had one of my favorite performances of the year -– a year where Adrian Peterson and Marshawn Lynch were the headliners at running back for the 2007 NFL Draft.

Like most, Lynch and Peterson were my top two backs. However this runner, who wowed me despite a sub-par yardage day, was ranked fourth in my pre-draft rankings. In 2007, 25 running backs went off the board.

Ahmad Bradshaw –- that No. 4 back on my board –- was the last runner taken in the draft; the 40th pick in the seventh round, going 250th overall. If we look at current career production, I was wrong about Bradshaw as my No. 4 back.

He has actually been the third-most productive runner from this draft class.

Players like these are memorable because let’s face it, unknown, unsung, and underappreciated usually means undrafted and unemployed. When a late-round or undrafted player makes his mark, it appeals to the part of us that roots for the underdog.

Whether it’s the small-school prospect with the big-time game, the well-known player whose skills are even better than advertised, or the overshadowed longshot with shocking moments of excellence, my favorite part of studying college prospects is watching talent that flies below the national radar.

Bradshaw’s obstacles towards reaching the NFL radar were injuries, off-field immaturity, and a B-list college program. I can think of others who fit the bill.

Victor Cruz was a small-school prospect with a big-time game. Ray Rice was a well-known college star who proved he was big enough, quick enough, and skilled enough to get the job done as a pro. Priest Holmes and Terrell Davis are great examples of talents that toiled in supporting roles behind talented teammates like Ricky Williams and Garrison Hearst after injuries cost them chances of earning more playing time.

My publication, the Rookie Scouting Portfolio, is a pre-draft analysis of offensive skill players that I publish April 1. (It also has a post-draft addendum.) What I enjoy the most about the April 1 publication is the opportunity to generate rankings where “draft stock” carries little to no weight. It’s a chance to focus more on the talent and less on the business.

This week, I’m sharing one unknown, one unsung, and one underappreciated prospect from my 2013 RSP analysis. I believe each prospect has the talent to out-perform his draft stock. These are excerpts from this year’s RSP that have been re-purposed for this column. It’s a small preview of what you’ll find in the publication.

Read the Rest at Football Outsiders

2013 RSP Publication Update

Catch your copy of the 2013 RSP on April 1. Photo by Joint Base Lewis McChord.
Catch your copy of the 2013 RSP on April 1. Photo by Joint Base Lewis McChord.

Good Morning.

One day before the 2013 RSP will be available for download at mattwaldman.com and I thought you’d like a status update. I just finished writing the final section of the publication and tomorrow I will be reviewing edits and constructing the publication. As soon as the construction of the document is ready, I will uploading it to the site for download.

I have no estimated timeline in terms of hour it will be ready, but I can give you some details about the publication:

  • 175 players
    • 19 QBs
    • 48 RBs
    • 80 WRs
    • 28 TEs
  • Front of the book: 203 pages of analysis
    • NFL Draft and fantasy overviews of each position
      • Historical draft data by position
      • Historical production data by round
    • Skill breakdowns
      • NEW: Ease of Fix Analysis by position
      • Skill chart rankings by position
        • Best
        • Needs Improvement
        • Worst
    • Notable players at each position
      • Overrated
      • Underrated
      • Projects
    • Player Profiles/Rankings
      • 19 QBs
      • Top 45 RBs
      • Top 45 WRs
      • Top 20 TEs
    • Ranking and Comaprison Cheatsheets and with commentary
      • 19 QBs
      • 45 RBs
      • 60 WRs
      • 27 TEs
  • Not included in the 203 pages:
    • A 15-page glossary of defined criteria I use for my play-by-play my analysis
    • A 37-page Abbreviated Draft Guide

As far as the play-by-play notes and grading checklists, I haven’t gotten to it yet. But when  you combine this 203-page rookie analysis publication with several hundred pages of my notes and player reports organized alphabetically by player position, you’re probably looking at 1000 pages of skill player madness.

Past copies are also available at www.mattwaldman.com and remember, 10 percent of every sale goes to Darkness to Light, a non-profit devoted to training communities to prevent sexual abuse.

Futures: The Hybrid RB Evolution

Patriots RB Shane Vereen is a good example of the influx of backs capable of making receiver-like adjustments on the football. Photo by John Martinez Paviliga.
Patriots RB Shane Vereen is a good example of the influx of backs capable of making receiver-like adjustments on the football. Photo by John Martinez Paviliga.

March is the month that I take 14-to-18 months of research and use it to generate rankings and analysis for the April 1 Rookie Scouting Portfolio publication. The labor involved in this compressed time period involves a workweek with hours averaging in the triple digits. I believe this will be the last year I have to do it this way.

I’m disclosing this because when you spend close to 100 hours in a five-day span reviewing play-by-play reports, scouting checklists, NFL Combine measurements, and watching several dozen sequences of plays another half-dozen times in order to write about running backs, you see things that you want to share. I’m not talking about hallucinations –- although I admit that I engaged in a brief, one-sided conversation with the side-view mirror of a red pickup truck parked near my favorite lunch spot in downtown Athens during the hour I took each day to leave the office that didn’t involve sleep.

That brief one-sided conversation reminded me of something Doug Farrar observed while having lunch at the Senior Bowl: Southern folk seem more accepting of eccentric behavior. I thought he was referring to someone else until that moment.

That Farrar is a perceptive guy.

Other than the realization that I’m eccentric, one of the big takeaways I had from these marathon analysis sessions of this running back class is that I think the NFL could be on the precipice of a more widespread change with how teams use the position in the passing game.

The hybridization of the NFL has been in progress for years. Marshall Faulk, Reggie
Bush, and Darren Sproles are the popular choices as heads on the pro game’s Mount Rushmore of runner-receiver hybrids. Personally, James Brooks would be my fourth bust in that crew.

[youtube=http://youtu.be/F68uk_EKCrs?start=110]

Brooks caught the ball away from his body on difficult passes even by wide receiver standards. And compared to other NFL backs of his era, Brooks saw a lot of downfield targets that many teams wouldn’t consider throwing to their runners.

These four would be my choices as the players who have ushered in the dawning of the hybrid runner era. Bush and Sproles have made splitting the back from the formation a more common and desirable practice, but Brooks and Faulk were evolutionary oddities. In fact, I’d argue that Faulk’s ability to run intermediate routes like a starting receiver made the Rams back ahead of his time in the same way that Jim Brown’s speed, change of direction, and short-area explosiveness in a 232-pound frame was ahead of the curve.

What is happening at the college level may be approaching a future that Faulk provided fans a glimpse of. The future is beyond the long handoffs and the occasional wheel and seam routes that Bush and Sproles execute. It’s the ability of runners of all shapes and sizes to make plays on targets in tight coverage or to see primary targets on so-called, “50/50 balls” –- even passes where backs are “thrown open” by design.

And it’s not just scat backs seeing these targets; prototypical bell cow backs and short-yardage types are getting into the act. This is a bold step forward in the evolutionary line of the position.

Read the rest at Football Outsiders

No-Huddle Series: Boise State RB D.J. Harper

For a time, D.J. Harper was considered the best back at Boise State - and Doug Martin was on the team . Photo by Football Schedule.
For a time, D.J. Harper was considered the best back at Boise State – and Doug Martin was on the team . Photo by Football Schedule.

Once upon a time, D.J. Harper was the lead back in the Boise State offense over Doug Martin. Two ACL injuries later and now finishing his sixth year of eligibility, Harper is entering the NFL Draft. I remember seeing Harper before the injury and there was no doubt he could fly.

Most doubt Harper will ever be better than Martin in the NFL. However there is more to Harper’s game than speed, which is why the slower, post-injury version of Harper still has a chance to make an NFL roster and contribute to a starting lineup.

In fact, the post-injuries version of Harper still has more speed, burst, and change-of-direction quickness than many NFL starters. He also has an eye-popping skill that, after watching this particular running back class, I’m beginning to think is becoming more prevalent among running backs.

Patience

[youtube=http://youtu.be/ItPbhloob_A?start=74]

Backs with great speed often have an issue with patience – especially those with more straight-line skills. This 1st-and-10 run from a 11 personnel pistol with receivers 1×2 at the BSU 37 is a good example. Watch Harper press the run towards right guard, allowing his guard and tight end to pull across the formation to the left guard’s side, and then bend the run behind the them. All this is done close to the line of scrimmage and it opens a lane off left guard.

Harper makes a decisive cut downhill and up the left hash through this big hole for a quick six yards and runs through some of a wrap by the defensive back hitting his leg. Harper stumbles forward with a hop for another six yards, gaining 12 on the play. I like the second effort and balance as well as the ball security under his sideline arm.

[youtube=http://youtu.be/ItPbhloob_A?start=112]

Here’s another display of patience on the same style play: a 2×1 receiver, 11 personnel set on 1st and 10 with 4:38 in the half from the BSU 20. Once again Harper works behind his pulling guard and tight to the left end and he presses it before working to the edge. Harper demonstrates enough burst to work past the grasp of a backside defender and then turn his pads to back his way another few yards on a six-yard gain. Another nice display of ball security under his left arm.

Reading the Line of Scrimmage

[youtube=http://youtu.be/ItPbhloob_A?start=241]

This is a zone play on 1st and 10 with 8:07 in the third quarter from a 1×1 receiver, 21 personnel strong side I-formation set at the BSU 26. Harper has to deal with some penetration closing the middle creases as his fullback winds to the weak side of the formation.

Harper slows his steps and bounces to the strong side and away from the penetration. I though Harper made a quick decision and move to reach the line of scrimmage and veer away from the defender. He works outside his edge block that seals the inside and spins outside the defender at the flat. Nice job maintaining his balance to get another six yards for the first down on this play.

Balance and Speed

[youtube=http://youtu.be/ItPbhloob_A?start=169]

Harper doesn’t possess that cutback style of his old teammate Martin, whose ability to sink his hips and cut is akin to Ray Rice’s style of running. However, Harper has a quick feet and explosiveness in a gait that is similar to runners like Demarco Murray and Darren McFadden.

This 11 personnel 1×2 receiver set on 2nd and 10 at the Fresno State 38 with 2:20 in the half is a good example of Harper’s Murray-McFadden style on display. Harper makes an excellent cutback outside the left guard to reach the line of scrimmage, sprinting through a big gap where he is fast enough to bend the run a step outside the oncoming safety. Harper earns a quick four yards, runs through the wrap to his leg and spins free of the contact just in time to foil the angle of the cornerback working from the flat.

This is a nice illustration of balance and agility at a pace fast enough to get outside, earn the first down, and then reach the left flat for another 18 yards and the score. Harper finishes with a dive over the pylon and extends his left arm for good measure.

Receiving

What got my attention about Harper’s game is his work as a down-field receiver. Perhaps I haven’t watched enough Boise State games, but this surprised me. Watch Harper exit the backfield, work past the linebacker’s jam, and maintain his course up the seam. And of course, there’s the catch.

[youtube=http://youtu.be/w-Ut-ABx-d0?start=58]

Harper looks like a wide receiver on this play, dragging his feet inside the boundary while extending to the end line. It’s not the only catch of this kind I’ve seen from Harper. Although the video editing is a little too Pleasantville for my liking, it’s a terrific catch.

[youtube=http://youtu.be/gp0Wu7B99yM?start=68]

You’ll probably have to rewind and play a few times to see how Harper works open at the last moment and makes the play with a great adjustment in tight coverage. To catch the ball with this kind of speed and body control is a pro-caliber play. There was a third reception I saw against Georgia in the left flat where he had to make a catch after contact, but I couldn’t find a good replay to display.

If Harper can stay healthy and display this kind of speed, balance, patience, and body control as runner and receiver,  Harper could be shaking hands with his former backfield mate after a hard-fought game where both runners got their uniforms dirty.

For analysis of skill players in this year’s draft class, download the 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio available April 1. Prepayment is available now. Better yet, if you’re a fantasy owner the 56-page Post-Draft Add-on comes with the 2013 RSP at no additional charge. Best, yet, 10 percent of every sale is donated to Darkness to Light to combat sexual abuse. You can purchase past editions of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio for just $9.95 apiece.

Mike Glennon + Blaine Gabbert + Aaron Schatz = A 2011-2013 RSP Mashup

If you got the 2012 RSP and the 2012 RSP Post-Draft that comes with it, you knew Russell Wilson was one of the best values of the 2012 Draft class. Photo by Football Schedule.
If you got the 2012 RSP then you knew Russell Wilson was one of the best values of the 2012 Draft class -or so the guy on my left shoulder with the pitchfork likes to shout. Photo by Football Schedule.

Football Outsiders Chief Aaron Schatz asked me a great question yesterday. One that I imagine some people with my business interests in mind would tell me not to answer within the context of a book season where I’m trying to generate sales. They want me to say – and only say – I was the guy that said last March that Russell Wilson was indeed comparable to Drew Brees in style and had the potential skill to get there. Fortunately, my right shoulder tends to be hunched higher to my ear when I’m writing, so the voice in the white robe and halo is easier to hear.

But let’s be real: If you’re expecting me to be right all the time then you’re giving me and everyone else in this business way too much credit.

The one thing that draft analysts and scouts worth their salt know better than most readers is that they are often wrong. This is tenet No.10 from my first-ever RSP Blog post – Losing Your Football Innocence:

10. Have a slice of humble pie: It’s easy to tell the difference between the average football fan and the guy who grinds tape. The average fan behaves as if he’s a football genius. The average tape grinder knows he’s a football idiot. He also can explain why in great detail. 

Part of adopting a student mindset is having the willingness to accept that you’ll be wrong a lot. Learning requires the ability to accept your errors.

I recently wrote an article about this topic. The subject was an accounting professor whose award-winning research was recently cited in Forbes. Her study dealt with the concept of cognitive dissonance in investing.

What she discovered is that people tend to make emotional choices once they commit to a decision. Moreover, it doesn’t matter if they are an expert in their field. If they’ve taken a stance, they defend that stance even if presented with evidence to the contrary.

In fact, they will seek analysis from sources that aren’t even as credible as the information presented to them in order to get validation that they made a good choice,  even if the result eventually says otherwise.

In essence, we stand by our decisions to placate our egos because it’s often more important for us to be perceived as experts than behave like them. The sad, but comical thing about this is that we all do it if we make a decision before we fully weigh the evidence. I have no problem admitting I do it. The only real cure for this problem is having insight – and that’s a topic for another time…

Hopefully this will help you shed your football-genius innocence and become a student of the game.

I’m sharing this because I think what’s important for those of you considering the 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio for the first time is that my background is in process improvement. I score players in the context of what they do well, where can they improve, and to the best of my knowledge, how they can improve. I also look at my process of evaluation and attempt to do the same thing every year.

I have gradually added a number of components to my evaluation process every year while making slight changes every couple of years to my scoring criteria so I can accomplish what I believe good prospect analysis does: Provide readers a comprehensive view of what a prospect is and could be and some context as to why I have that view so you can see my logic, even if it turns out to be flawed.

This leads me to Schatz’s question about Blaine Gabbert yesterday. I sniped quarterback Carson Palmer from him in the RSPWP2. Seeking alternatives, he looked through the 2011 Rookie Scouting Portfolio and read my analysis of Blaine Gabbert.  It prompted this email:

Why do you think you were so wrong about Gabbert when you rated him the best prospect in 2011? Or, do you think maybe you weren’t entirely wrong and there’s still room for growth because he’s just 23?

Great question.

I was wrong about Gabbert for two major reasons:

  • I didn’t factor his pocket issues with enough weight because I saw examples contrary to the popular opinion about is jitters – especially as a sophomore. 
  • I don’t get to interview coaches an teammates as non-media and I don’t have a private investigator on retainer.

The things I missed about Gabbert was one of the reasons I created additional steps within my evaluation process, which helps me frame and present a player’s potential with greater breadth.

Being wrong about Gabbert thus far hurts the ego, but helped my process. Photo by PDA.Photo.
Being wrong about Gabbert thus far hurts the ego, but helped my process. Photo by PDA.Photo.

In essence, I changed how I rank players. I now incorporate an analysis where I weigh the ease/difficulty of transition with certain skill sets at each position. I now use two scores – the player’s highest checklist score from games I studied and then a Ceiling Score, which is this player’s adjusted, highest possible score based on his flaws and the likelihood he can correct them.

As I rank players, I look at the spread between the scores (potential and reality) and then factor the ease of difficulty of transition with each of the player’s physical, technical, and conceptual flaws. For instance, I have Geno Smith rated lower than many folks but I think his faults have a good enough ease of transition to help him develop into a starting quarterback.

It has also helped me think about players in ways where I think I can better articulate why a player may have starter potential but the sum of his parts does not equal the final product. N.C. State’s Mike Glennon and what I just wrote about him in the 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio as an Overrated Talent is a good example:

I’d be shocked if Glennon wasn’t picked within the first three rounds of the 2013 NFL Draft – pleasantly so. While a prospect with a first-round arm, first-round height, and a resume of experience in the ACC that merits early-round consideration, Glennon is not the sum of his parts.

The “glue” that holds a quarterback’s game together is his attention to detail, his ability to focus amid physical and mental distractions, and his capacity to learn from mistakes. Thus far, I don’t see enough progress from Glennon in any of these areas to trust him with a pick in the first half of the draft.

Glennon is one of the most inconsistent players I’ve watched this year. A good way to determine a quarterback’s attention to detail is to examine his short game. Glennons throws on plays like screens, roll outs, short play action passes, swing routes, and flat routes reveal a player whose footwork is executed with purpose and definition from one throw to the next, but without context of the defense is doing. He often rushes throws without looking at the situation developing ahead of him.

In a sense, he’s a task-oriented quarterback who knows he’s supposed to do certain things but doesn’t address the details enough to do them well. Moreover, Glennon appears to lose sight of the overall picture of a play and he’ll throw the ball blindly. Leadership is about balancing the ability to see in a broad scope (vision) and managing details to the letter (execution) while maintaining a consistent approach to dealing with situations.

All the negative traits in Glennon’s game – rushing throws, lazy play fakes, inconsistent footwork, reckless and blind decision-making, perceiving pressure, and rushing his release – are all on-field signs of behavior that isn’t ready to lead. The N.C. State quarterback has so many large and small details to address in his game and they don’t just reflect a lack of technique, but an indication based behavior that Glennon isn’t ready to lead a group and all of these things are a physical manifestation of an intangible that we often sum up as leadership.

Look at Robert Griffin and Russell Wilson and you’ll see the attention to detail each has. They make mistakes, but the footwork, play fakes, and mechanics of their game are honed. They are consistent and with that consistency comes poise. Teammates respond to this behavior to continue doing the little things well despite adversity dealing a series of blows big and small.

While I’m not completely writing off the possibility that Glennon will address these issues and develop into a quality leader-player, the chances are smaller than average based on what I see from college quarterbacks with good attention to detail who make a successful transition to the NFL.

I think it’s important to find links between on-field behavior and how they relate to “intangibles.” It may not be a statistically-based link, but my job is to try to project the future – not scientifically document the past. I try to use the past data – and stats where appropriate – when possible, but my job is primarily observational. I’m probably one of the more analytic-observational football writers around, if you get what I’m saying.

This leads me to back to Gabbert. Yes, I do think Gabbert can still get better, but this is where I think we get into the touchy-feely side of football. Part of this NFL transition is about crossing the divide from good college player to reliable professional in the locker room, practice field, meeting rooms, off the field, and then of course on Sundays.

These guys suddenly have tons of money, a lot more free time, and no one watching their backs each hour to make sure they lifted, studied, went to class, ate, etc. They also suddenly have grown men counting on them to produce and that pressure is way higher in the NFL than the college game.

Then compress the spread of good and bad skill in the NFL (all players being the top tenth of a percent of college players – probably not a correct number but you get my point) and a lack of maturity can be a bitch to handle. Vince Young should have been a better player. He wasn’t mature enough to work for it. Kurt Warner never gave up and he became a very good one.

Skill-wise, Gabbert has the arm and accuracy. The pocket presence has been an issue, but I will note that Matt Ryan still perceives pressure, drops his eyes from coverage, and makes some Gabbert-like plays to this day. The difference is that it happens with Ryan on a smaller frequency of plays, he wasn’t put on a really bad team, and he was given a stronger coaching staff.

Most important? Ryan handled his transition better. Remember, Ryan and his high interception count as a senior wasn’t considered a great prospect by many come draft time. I liked him – thought he could be a good version of Drew Bledsoe – very good, but never great.

I think it’s less than 50/50 that Gabbert ever becomes the player he could be if the rumors are true that he’s “Blame” Gabbert in meeting rooms and nothing is his fault. However when you look at his arm, base accuracy, mobility, mechanics, and flashes of good decision-making, the sum of his parts still give him promise

It’s why separating potential from reality in a systematic way can be so helpful. At least that is what I’m constantly learning.

And Aaron, I hope that helps.

For analysis of skill players in this year’s draft class, download the 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio available April 1. Prepayment is available now. Better yet, if you’re a fantasy owner the 56-page Post-Draft Add-on comes with the 2013 RSP at no additional charge. Best, yet, 10 percent of every sale is donated to Darkness to Light to combat sexual abuse. You can purchase past editions of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio for just $9.95 apiece.