Posts tagged Matt Waldman

RSPWP2: Recent Analysis

0 Comments read Matt Waldman, RSP Writers Project
I've built a Hot Tub Time Machine for Palmer. Too bad there's not enough room for Chad Johnson. Photo by Keith Allison.
I’ve built a Hot Tub Time Machine for Palmer. Too bad there’s not enough room for Chad Johnson. Photo by Keith Allison.

As we get into the meaty portion of the draft phase for the Second Annual Rookie Scouting Portfolio Writers Project, the pick analysis will be less frequent. We’re giving writers more slack to deliver pick analysis after each selection. If they want to write blurbs, they will. If not, we’ll catch them at the end of the draft to deliver more info.

And I’m sure they will want to deliver info when our panel of writers judging this project will want to see their cases made for why they’ve built the foundation of a winner. More on that to come.

Recent pick blurbs that have been posted from the past 2-3 rounds include:

  • Sam Monson on Mike Wallace paired with Peyton Manning and Andre Johnson – there’s also great commentary from regular reader “Samuel,” be sure to check that out.
  • Ryan Riddle on former teammate Marshawn Lynch as a huge value and also a take on Anthony Spencer’s prowess at defensive end
  • Dave Richard mixes youth (G Kevin Zeitler) with experience (WR Roddy White)
  • Cian Fahey delivers another take on drafting pure talent vs. talent for scheme as he discusses cornerback Asante Samuel
  • Yours Truly weighs in on finally taking a skill position player – and a quarterback at that

While not all the picks have analysis, each team in the Draft Room has its picks up to date for your perusal. We also have a report on picks by position. You can follow the RSPWP pick-by-pick on Twitter #RSPWP2.

The RSP Writers project is brought to you by the 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio. Learn more about the 2013 RSP Writers Project and check out the completed 2012 RSP Writers Project where we built teams under a realistic salary cap. You can try it yourself.

 

 

Reads Listens Views 3/15/2013

0 Comments read Reads Listens Views
There are a fair share of Jimmy Graham-sized targets in this draft, but as I finish up my rankings, only a few have a ceiling that is even in the neighborhood of the Saint. Photo by Football Schedule.
There are a fair share of Jimmy Graham-sized targets in this draft, but as I finish up my rankings, only a few have a ceiling that is even in the neighborhood of the Saint. Photo by Football Schedule.

2013 RSP Update

I’m well into publication mode with April 1 approaching fast.  Thanks to all of you who read the blog, follow me on Twitter, and purchase the Rookie Scouting Portfolio publication. Available for download every April 1 (no joke) for going on eight years, the RSP is an online .PDF publication devoted to the play-by-play study of NFL prospects at the offensive skill positions. The publication has a menu that bookmarks the document so you have two types of analysis. The first portion is a magazine-style, pre-draft analysis of 120-150 pages that includes position rankings, player comparisons, skill set analysis of each position, and sleepers.

The second portion is where I show all my work: between 700-800 pages of grading reports, play-by-play analysis of every player and game I watched, and a glossary that defines every criteria in my grading reports. My readers who want the bottom line love the first half of the book and appreciate the transparency of this section. My hardcore readers love the fact that they can dive as deep as they want into these raw play-by-play notes.

Included with the RSP (since 2012) is a post-draft document between 50-70 pages that comes out a week after the NFL Draft with updated post-draft rankings, tiers, team fit analysis, and fantasy cheat sheet with value analysis (Russell Wilson was calculated as the best value last year). Fantasy owners can’t get enough of it.

The RSP is $19.95 and I donate 10 percent of each sale to Darkness to Light, a non-profit dedicated to training individuals and communities on the prevention of sexual abuse. Past years of publications (2006-2012) are available for $9.95 and I also donate 10 percent of each sale to D2L. You can prepay for the 2013 RSP now.

Listens I

[youtube=http://youtu.be/_d_PApKfbA0]

RSPWP2 Update

We’re into the sixth round of the second Rookie Scouting Portfolio Writers Project. We have recruited a writer panel of judges to grade the teams once we’ve finished the draft.

To follow along you can access the draft room any time and choose a team to read commentary on their selections.

One of the biggest questions I see about this project is What is the purpose? 

  • Build a winner this year?
  • Build a long-term winner?
  • Beat everyone else drafting?

The primary answer is we want discussion. Takes on players and how they fit into scheme. Interaction among some of the best people writing about football online in a variety of formats: news, strategy, advanced stats, and fantasy sports. Yes, fantasy sports writers have a rightful place at the table. I’ve had a lot of request for a grid format to view the draft picks. As we get into the middle rounds of the draft, we’ll make an Excel table available for download and update it periodically for your viewing pleasure.

Listens II

The Bridge Quartet – Exidence

Football Reads

Non-Football Reads

Views – South Carolina Tight End Justin Cunningham

[youtube=http://youtu.be/FDCV12XwmIU]

He’s not Jimmy Graham, but Heath Miller is a pretty good ceiling of comparison if you ask me.

Listens III

Trio Subtonic – There We Were

Player B

0 Comments read Players, Running Back
Why does "Player B" remind me of Fred Jackson? It begins with how his combine stats mesh with his on-field performance. Photo by Alan Kotok.
Why does “Player B” remind me of Fred Jackson? It begins with how his combine stats mesh with his on-field performance. Photo by Alan Kotok.

This time of year I’m marrying NFL Combine data with my tape analysis. I don’t take a close look until now. So today being one of the first days I’m examining the results, I came across something that – at least to the eyeball test – passed muster in a way that confirmed a conclusion I have formed while studying games. I don’t know if this conclusion fits the consensus or not, but I do have a feeling it goes against the grain.

To begin, here’s a question to answer: Based on these NFL Combine results, and nothing else, which running back is more appealing as an all-around player?

Player Ht Wt Hands 40 10 Bench Vert Jump 20 S 60 S 3 Cone
A 5092 196 9 1/8 4.52 1.6 20 35.5 10’02” 4.2 11.33 6.87
B 5102 214 9 3/4 4.73 1.6 21 39 10’05” 4.09 11.51 6.85

Don’t get your slide rule bent out of shape. This is a flawed question. This is not how I rank players.

Yet, I think it’s an interesting jumping-off point for this post.

Player A is just an inch shorter,  but 18 pounds lighter. He is also a solid step or two faster at longer distances. Despite the weight and long-speed differences, Player B has more short-area quickness and equal, if not more explosive, change of direction. If these two runners’ skills in athletic wear translated in a football game with pads, I’d say the taller, heavier, and quicker Player B would seem like the better bet.

Oregon running back Kenjon Barner has his fans here. Doug Farrar and Josh Norris believe he's a better prospect than LaMichael James. Photo by Wade Rackley.
Oregon running back Kenjon Barner has his fans here. Doug Farrar and Josh Norris believe he’s a better prospect than LaMichael James. Photo by Wade Rackley.

So you know, Player A is Oregon big-play artist Kenjon Barner. Barner’s combine results relative to this running back class are pretty good. However, Player B appears more appealing in similar ways to quicksters like Kerwynn Williams and Ray Graham and early-down bell cows like Michael Ford and Stepfan Taylor.

With the exception of 40-time and bench press, Player B is physically not too far away from workout darling Christine Michael – a prospect many consider one of the most physically talented runners in this class and a capable of top-prospect production if not for unwelcome bouts of immaturity that have held him back.

Player B might lack the breakaway capability, but if these workout results translate to the field of play I’d think that this mystery player has the size, quickness, and change of direction to produce between the tackles and in space.

In terms of what I see on the field, I think the NFL Combine results encapsulates a lot of the physical talents that I see Player B – Nebraska running back Rex Burkhead – display on the football field. His short-area quickness and agility is a notable positive of Burkhead’s game. If all you can see is the 4.73-40 time then you’re not seeing the running back position in a worthwhile context.

I believe there are plenty of highlights on YouTube to get a gist for Burkhead’s quickness and agility. The best example could be some of the plays I watched in this year’s Capital One Bowl against Georgia’s defense filled with NFL-caliber athletes. While Georgia has its breakdowns in the run game, the athlete-on-athlete match ups are worth a look when examining Burkhead’s physical skills.

Bigger Back, Little Back Moves

Burkhead is not Barry Sanders, but he does know how to layer moves that can freeze defenders while working down hill. Here is a 2nd-and-seven pass with 6:14 in the first quarter that illustrates what I’m talking about.

[youtube=http://youtu.be/NnlOx0njw7A?start=26]

Burkhead gains 16 yards from this 1×2 receiver, 11 personnel shotgun set on a screen pass from the UGA 37 where he releases from the quarterback’s left side, works to the left guard, and then turns back to the quarterback, catching the ball behind his linemen. After he works across the left guard to make the catch with his hands, he works behind the right tackle up the right hash. The is notable, but it’s the subtle head and shoulder fake combination on the defender back coming over the top from Burkhead’s outside shoulder that I value. This move fools the strong safety and forces another defender to chase the running back down.

Here’s a sharp, lateral cut on first-round athlete, Alec Ogletree at the edge on a 1st-and-10 run from the Nebraska 24 with 6:41 in the half.

[youtube=http://youtu.be/NnlOx0njw7A?start=161]

Nebraska runs power to right end with the pulling left guard working on outside linebacker Jarvis Jones, who crashes the line early with penetration. Burkhead dips outside the block, scraping close to Jones’ back so he can get down hill fast and maximize his gain. The inside linebacker Ogletree works free to the edge while shedding the tight end and has a down hill angle four yards from the Nebraska runner approaching the line of scrimmage.

Burkhead takes two small steps and cuts inside the the linebacker at the line of scrimmage and leaves the defender on his silver britches. It’s not a hard plant and cut, but I’m impressed with the quickness and precision of the footwork to change direction and it is similar to the footwork one would see from a shuttle run or cone drill.

Knowledge of Angles Equals Power

Brute force is what most people imagine when the word power is used in the context of a running back. The more important factor is a knowledge of angles. This is why a smaller back with average or even below average strength at the position can thrive when he manifests this knowledge of angles into good pad level, stiff arms, and transforming direct angles into indirect angles.

Burkhead demonstrates this ability to transform angles on the play after he jukes Olgetree to the ground. This is a six-yard gain on 2nd and five at the Nebraska 30 is a 21 personnel, strong side twin, I-formation set. Nebraska sets up a crease off left guard behind the lead fullback.

[youtube=http://youtu.be/NnlOx0njw7A?start=171]

Burkhead does a nice job of turning his shoulders away from Ogletree’s wrap and forcing the ILB to slide away from the runner. Burkhead keeps his legs moving and pulls free of the linebackers wrap and nearly another as he works to the first down marker. This slight turn of the pads is a demonstration why the Nebraska runner is more difficult for defenders to get a hat on than he seems.

Of course, Burkhead also displays the more tradition form of power on this 2nd-and-14 run at the Nebraska 26 for a 10-yard gain with 3:25 in the third quarter. This is a 1×2 receiver, 11 personnel pistol where he flanks the quarterback to the left (strong) side. They run delay with a guard pulling to the right.

[youtube=http://youtu.be/NnlOx0njw7A?start=286]

Burkhead finds a big hole inside the pulling guard and there is also a nice push from the double team of the center and right guard up the middle. The Cornhusker accelerates through that hole and then splits the double team for eight yards. He finishes the run by dragging the Georgia safety and inside linebacker a few more before lowering the pads and chopping his feet through head-on contact. When a back has the size to deliver the hammer, but the quickness to employ the change-up, he can be an effective interior runner at the NFL level.

Stylistically, Burkhead’s rushing and receiving skills remind me of Fred Jackson without the long speed.

[youtube=http://youtu.be/8FFNHZu7wyo]

Will Burkhead have Fred Jackson’s success? With today’s NFL experiencing a glut of talent at the running back position, I’m not confident in Burkhead landing in a situation where it happens. Just remember that Jackson was a Division III star who failed to stick with the Bears, Broncos, and Packers and had to play indoor football with the Sioux City Bandits for $200 a week for two years before he even earned a gig in NFL Europe. It took Jackson five years to earn an NFL start.

Burkhead at least hails from a big-time college program and already has the size that Jackson (195 pounds out of college) – now 216 pounds – lacked. Regardless of Burkhead’s outlook, his game tape reveals a lot of NFL-caliber skill.

For analysis of skill players in this year’s draft class, download the 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio available April 1. Prepayment is available now. Better yet, if you’re a fantasy owner the 56-page Post-Draft Add-on comes with the 2013 RSP at no additional charge. Best, yet, 10 percent of every sale is donated to Darkness to Light to combat sexual abuse. You can purchase past editions of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio for just $9.95 apiece.

Futures: Duke QB Sean Renfree

0 Comments read Players
Manning quarterback-guru David Cutcliffe says Duke quarterback Sean Renfree is the steal of the draft. Find out why.
Manning quarterback-guru David Cutcliffe says Duke quarterback Sean Renfree is the steal of the draft. Find out why.

The steal of the draft. That’s what Duke head coach David Cutcliffe says about Blue Devils quarterback Sean Renfree, a 6-foot-3, 219-pound senior. Renfree is the latest in the line of Cutcliffe disciples that includes Peyton and Eli Manning. That list also has current NFL backup Thaddeus Lewis and former Jets reserve Erik Ainge — both well below the Manning tier where physical talent, quarterback technique, and on-field savvy intersect -– but prospects coaches still valued.

At this time of the year, coaches will often do public relations work for their players who have faded into the background of a crowded class of prospects. During his first year at Stanford, Jim Harbaugh showed scouts and media game tape of his former starting quarterback at the University of San Diego, Josh Johnson.

Cutcliffe did enough to promote Lewis’ stock at Duke that the St. Louis Rams invited the quarterback into camp in 2010, where the rookie impressed Pat Shurmur enough in the preseason that the coach took a chance on the former Blue Devils player in Cleveland. Lewis actually started the 2012 finale against Pittsburgh and delivered a 22-of-32, 204-yard performance, with one touchdown and one interception, in his first NFL regular season action.

So is Cutcliffe’s steal of the draft spin justified? Are Peter King and Mel Kiper hitching rides on a sleeper bandwagon headed for a steep cliff? Or is there gold on the horizon?

Renfree, who backed up Lewis, was the more highly-regarded quarterback in Durham. After earning the starting job as a sophomore, Renfree had three seasons with at least a 61-percent completion percentage, and two at 65 percent or above. Although Duke has an active short-passing game, there’s a lot to share that illustrates why the positive buzz has merit.

Cutcliffe’s offense is rooted in a pro style, and Renfree has experience with a variety of drops and fakes where he has to manipulate the defense with his eyes and body while delivering throws with anticipation and accuracy against pressure. Renfree and Tulane’s Ryan Griffin and Renfree are two examples of why I believe this 2013 quarterback class may lack star power at the top, but its middle and bottom tiers have more potential than the 2012 group.

Read the rest at Football Outsiders

Reads Listens Views 3/8/13

0 Comments read Reads Listens Views
If you think of me when you see these three players - among others - you don't need me to say any more. If you don't, perhaps its time to starting downloading the RSP publication every April 1.
.

If you think of me when you see these three players – among others – you don’t need me to say any more. If you don’t, perhaps its time to starting downloading the RSP publication every April 1 Based on eight years of experience, you’ll thank me later. But first . . . What is Reads Listens Views? If you’re new to the blog, every Friday I supply links to things I thought were worth a read about football and the world beyond it. I also provide videos of music I enjoy, football players from the past, and a variety of other topics.

Most of all, I take this day to say thank you and yes, remind you to get the 2013 RSP.

Listens I

[youtube=http://youtu.be/7JFjYzuXesw]

Thank You

Thanks to all of you who read the blog, follow me on Twitter, and purchase the Rookie Scouting Portfolio publication. Available for download every April 1 (no joke) for going on eight years, the RSP is an online .PDF publication devoted to the play-by-play study of NFL prospects at the offensive skill positions. The publication has a menu that bookmarks the document so you have two types of analysis. The first portion is a magazine-style, pre-draft analysis of 120-150 pages that includes position rankings, player comparisons, skill set analysis of each position, and sleepers.

The second portion is where I show all my work: between 700-800 pages of grading reports, play-by-play analysis of every player and game I watched, and a glossary that defines every criteria in my grading reports. My readers who want the bottom line love the first half of the book and appreciate the transparency of this section. My hardcore readers love the fact that they can dive as deep as they want into these raw play-by-play notes.

Included with the RSP (since 2012) is a post-draft document between 50-70 pages that comes out a week after the NFL Draft with updated post-draft rankings, tiers, team fit analysis, and fantasy cheat sheet with value analysis (Russell Wilson was calculated as the best value last year). Fantasy owners can’t get enough of it.

The RSP is $19.95 and I donate 10 percent of each sale to Darkness to Light, a non-profit dedicated to training individuals and communities on the prevention of sexual abuse. Past years of publications (2006-2012) are available for $9.95 and I also donate 10 percent of each sale to D2L. You can prepay for the 2013 RSP now.

RSPWP2 – What Is It? 

We’re nearly four rounds into the Second Annual Rookie Scouting Portfolio Writers Project. To follow along you can access the draft room any time and choose a team to read commentary on their selections.

One of the biggest questions I see about this project is What is the purpose? 

  • Build a winner this year?
  • Build a long-term winner?
  • Beat everyone else drafting?

The primary answer is we want discussion. Takes on players and how they fit into scheme. Interaction among some of the best people writing about football online in a variety of formats: news, strategy, advanced stats, and fantasy sports. Yes, fantasy sports writers have a rightful place at the table. I’ve had a lot of request for a grid format to view the draft picks. As we get into the middle rounds of the draft, we’ll make an Excel table available for download and update it periodically for your viewing pleasure.

Listens II

[youtube=http://youtu.be/HlnDHUjoQ_U]

Football Reads

Non-Football Reads

Views

[youtube=http://youtu.be/QPKKQnijnsM]

M.A.V. – Micro Air Vehicles  – As with all technology, the uses can be awe-inspiring and awful. The glass is half-empty for me on this one, folks.

Listens III

[youtube=http://youtu.be/WRbHXVZFe1w]

Futures: Arkansas RB Knile Davis

0 Comments read Players
Shonn Greene wouldn't be my player comp for Knile Davis, but I understand the reasoning. Photo by Matt Britt.
Shonn Greene wouldn’t be my player comp for Knile Davis, but I understand the reasoning. Photo by Matt Britt.

When I saw the 2012 Lewin Career Forecast, I had already studied Russell Wilson. In fact, I told a panel of draft analysts on a National Football Post podcast (beginning at the 17:42 mark) that included Josh Norris, Wes Bunting, and Josh Buchanan that Wilson was my sleeper quarterback in this draft. I was cynical that Wilson would be picked before the third round, but once Seattle opted for the N.C. State-Wisconsin quarterback, my immediate thought was that Wilson would be a pivotal test case against height bias in the NFL.

I think there’s another potential test case in the draft this year, but on the opposite end of the spectrum when it comes to the dilemma of prototypical skills vs. prototypical measurements. The lead actor in this draft-day drama could be Knile Davis. If an NFL team selects Davis in the first three rounds of this draft, it will be a telling indication that they relied more on Davis’ Combine performance –- and to some degree sabermetrics –- than the opinions of scouts and draft analysts who lean hard on the game tape.

Davis was an All-SEC selection in 2010, rushing for 1322 yards and scoring 13 touchdowns. In 2011, the Arkansas running back missed the season with a broken ankle. Davis underwhelmed in 2012, losing the starting job to reserve Dennis Johnson and only showing flashes of what he did in 2010.

Fast forward to the 2013 NFL Combine, and the 227-pound runner put on a show: a 4.37 40-yard dash and 31 reps on the bench press. It was an impressive performance that vaulted Davis atop Football Outsiders’ Speed Score metric for running backs. According to Danny Tuccitto, a Speed score below 80 is “a giant red flag,” a 100 Speed Score is “average,” and “anything above 120 serving as a giant neon sign.”

This makes Davis’ Speed Score, “off-the-charts good.” If you listen to Davis talk about NFL players of comparison, his self-perception is also top-notch. Andrew Gribble reports that Davis describes his style as on par with Arian Foster and Adrian Peterson.

If you ask me, Davis has some sort of dsymorphic disorder isolated to running backs and American Idol audition candidates. He has the idea that he performs differently than he does. Davis’ style is nowhere close to that of Foster or Peterson. When it comes to talent, if Davis is one of the top-ten runners in this class, then it’s a stretch to place him among the top seven in what is a deep class that lacks superstar talent at the top.

While I can’t be definitive about an exact ranking because I’m about two days away from the month-long task of compiling my 24 months of analysis into rankings this month, I can say that I have similar concerns as other writers (such as Rotoworld’s Evan Silva, NFL.com’s Josh Norris, and Bleacher Report’s Sigmund Bloom) who have studied Davis.

Foster and Peterson don’t come to mind when they watch Davis run. The running back mentioned most often among them was Shonn Greene.

Ouch.

Read the Rest Football Outsiders

RSPWP2: Waldman’s Early Thoughts

0 Comments read RSP Writers Project
Will Bramel allow Cutler to light up on the field? Photo by Mike Shadle.
Will Bramel allow Cutler to light up on the field? Photo by Mike Shadle.

I love this draft. It has defensive-minded Jene Bramel taking gunslinger Jay Cutler, yours truly ditching offense for two monolithic bad boys with wheels on the defensive line, and Football Outsiders’ founder Aaron Schatz talking intangibles.

Intangibles!

I have to admit, this project is a lot more fun that I even anticipated. The writers we have on board are excellent and Sigmund Bloom has done a fantastic job of setting up the free-flowing, conversational draft room on Twitter – hash tag #RSPWP2. If you’re new to the RSP blog, I encourage you to look around. I update content at least 3-4 times a week with analysis that my regular readers love.

To follow the second annual Rookie Scouting Portfolio Writers Project  at the blog, you can access the draft room any time and choose a team to read commentary on their selections.

One of the biggest questions I see about this project is What is the purpose? 

  • Build a winner this year?
  • Build a long-term winner?
  • Beat everyone else drafting?

The primary answer is we want discussion. Takes on players and how they fit into scheme. Interaction among some of the best people writing about football online in a variety of formats: news, strategy, advanced stats, and fantasy sports. Yes, fantasy sports writers have a rightful place at the table.

As for the three bullet points, I see the secondary purpose of this exercise as open-ended. I want to build a long-term winner. Another writer like Sam Monson – who will likely disagree with me about my view of his team thus far – may choose to win now with such urgency that he’ll make Peyton Manning a priority selection. Marc Lillibridge is bent on beating everyone else – I think he’s few seconds away from challenging someone to a race as we speak.

There are a lot of requests for us to determine a winner. Lots of ideas coming our way from readers about this. I’m sure we’ll figure something out. I’m in favor of selecting a peer group of writers not affiliated with the project to judge the teams on these categories.

  • The 12 teams most likely to make the playoffs.
  • The four teams most likely to play in a conference championship.
  • The eight teams with the best long-term promise to contend.
  • The eight best offenses.
  • The eight best defenses.

I can think of more. In fact, I’d love to get some peer writers to provide a commentary where we take these teams through the playoffs and there’s a written discussion on how the games might play out. Feel free to tell me what you think of these ideas.

Is A.J. Green scheme-dependent? I have to say so, even if I wanted him in the first round. Photo by Wade Rackley.
Is A.J. Green scheme-dependent? I have to say so, even if I wanted him in the first round. Photo by Wade Rackley.

It’s way too early to judge any team, including Cian Fahey’s squad – which has come under fire on Twitter for selecting a very good defensive end in Calais Campbell with the ninth overall pick. However, I want to share some early-round thoughts now that we’re a pick away from completing the first 64:

  • Bargains: Of the first 20 picks, 15 were quarterbacks. No surprise. However, once I let Jay Cutler slip past me at pick No.27, Cutler dropped another 17 spots. As maligned as Cutler is for his attitude, his lack of technical and conceptual discipline, and not producing stats commensurate with his promise, he’s still capable of 35-40 touchdowns in a good offense. In fact, I’m still a little surprised Tony Romo and even Philip Rivers dropped as far as they did. Especially Romo. If he was there at 27, I would have taken him.  Ryan Clady is another. Lance Zierlein couldn’t believe the left tackle – who might be the best pass protector in the game – was still on the board at the bottom of the second round.
  • Scheme-Heavy: I think these picks could be excellent but readers may question them because they won’t look as good unless the player, the scheme, and the personnel taken to complement them lock into place.

    • Chris Burke’s selection of Colin Kapernick – A terrific, young player who I think is a little more pistol-dependent at this stage of his career than I’d like to see. I think he lacks touch as a passer, especially in the red zone. Make fun of Randy Moss all you want, but give last year’s incarnation of No.84 a good touch passer capable of throwing receivers open and the Ravens lose handily. He’ll get better, but I think at this stage of his career he’s scheme dependent.
    • Cian Fahey’s pick of Calais Campbell – I think Fahey is well on his way to making the selection of Campbell worthwhile. Although I don’t think anyone will buy that taking Campbell ninth was good value, it’s easy to harp on that point when we have an understanding of what these players are capable of doing in the NFL. Pairing Campbell with Justin Smith is a good foundation for a 2-4-5 defensive scheme that Fahey intends to use.
    • Ian Kenyon’s picks of A.J. Green and Demaryius Thomas – In contrast to the reaction Fahey received for Campbell, most readers loved Kenyon’s picks. I do to. However, I can see the downside if Kenyon doesn’t make sure he has the talent to get them the ball – especially down the field. Imagine buying a Porsche or a Shelby, parking them in a bad neighborhood, and then getting locked in the building you entered.  Or, driving either of these cars in bumper-to-bumper traffic on an eight-lane highway with the speed limit of 80 and everyone is going 3. It could piss you off quick.
    • Jene Bramel taking Aldon Smith  – I think this has to do with Bramel relaying Monson’s point that pressure inside is more dominant than pressure outside. Smith is a great, young player. As long as Bramel does what I bet he’ll do, there will be little risk of having a double-teamed OLB with little else on defense to make an offensive pay for doing so. Still, it forces Bramel into a path early on.

Your Turn Coming Soon

Stay tuned, I’ll have a poll for readers to share what they think of the opening rounds of this draft.

The RSP Writers project is brought to you by the 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio. Learn more about the 2013 RSP Writers Project and check out the completed 2012 RSP Writers Project where we built teams under a realistic salary cap. You can try it yourself.

RSP Writers Project No.2 (RSPWP2): Draft In Progress

0 Comments read RSP Writers Project
In fantasy football Adrian Peterson is a great player to build a team around. However if you had to build a real team from scratch with realistic fiscal constraints it's not as easy a decision. Photo by xoque.
In fantasy football Adrian Peterson is a great player to build a team around. However if you had to build a real team from scratch where would you take him in a draft like the RSPWP2? Photo by xoque.

The RSP Writers Project is a collection of football writers, analysts, and former scouts who participate in a now-annual event designed to share thoughts about pro football through an exercise. Last year we selected full rosters with salary caps and required each writer to develop a scheme on each side of the ball and even choose coaches.

This year, we’re holding a draft. You can find the Draft Room here. Each pick and its explanation – long or short – will be at the links embedded with each writer’s name. Will we draft a full team? That’s a goal, but the true goal is to spark discussion about player value to a franchise, picking for talent or scheme, etc.

If you want to keep up with it live go to Twitter and follow @RSPDraft2013

Reads Listens Views 3/1/2013

0 Comments read Reads Listens Views
I wish I was servin' this up, but the menu below is still pretty good. Photo by Joe Bryant.
I wish I was servin’ this up, but the menu below is still pretty good. Photo by Joe Bryant.

I’m serving it up once again at the RSP headquarters and I want to thank all of you for reading, following, and investing (see below) in the RSP blog. I’m about 6-8 players away from finishing film study and the 2013 RSP publication is on track for its April 1 publication date. If you are new to my blog, I post a Reads Listens Views article every Friday. It’s a little football, a little music, and a lot of things I want to share that are about world at large.

Thank you for making the RSP possible.

Listens I: Music to Read By – “Space Captain”

[youtube=http://youtu.be/QkzLatem0VY]

Football Reads

Listens II: Music to Watch Wide Receivers By – “Chatter”

[youtube=http://youtu.be/lxeqqBLR4zE]

I remember seeing Stern in Miami when I was 19 and he still kicks ass.  The tenor and drum solos got the most applause – deservedly so. If you like wild rides then is a good one.

Non-Football Reads

Listens III: Tedeschi Encore

[youtube=http://youtu.be/AIZ6beIGO9s]

Views: Six Reasons to Buy the 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio (No Order of Importance Needed) – You can pre-order now or buy April 1 when available for download.

  1. You’re Investing in the RSP Blog: Your purchase indicates this blog is worth reading. I can allocate time and resources into it and provide additional free analysis and host projects with great football writers.
  2. You Get Free, In-Depth Analysis of Players at the Blog That Few Discuss Until They Show Something in a Game: 
  3. Right or Wrong About Players, You See “My Math”:In the back of the RSP is hundreds of pages of grade sheets, play-by-play analysis, and a glossary that defines my grading criteria.
  4. Speaking of Dynasty Leagues . . . Here Are Some Noted “Values” From Past Publication Pre-Draft Fantasy Rankings
    • Randall Cobb No.3
    • Ahmad Bradshaw (No.4)
    • Ray Rice (No.2)
    • Matt Forte (No.5)
    • Joseph Addai (No.3)
    • Maurice Jones-Drew (No.5)
    • Steve Smith (NYG No.3)
    • Russell Wilson (No.4)
    • Demarco Murray (No.4)
    • Andre Roberts (No.5)
    • Eric Decker (No.6)
    • Aaron Hernandez (No.1)
    • Dennis Pitta (No.4)
  5. And Players I Thought Were Overvalued . . . 
    • Robert Meachem (No.14)
    • Tim Tebow (No.11)
    • Ted Ginn (N/R)
    • Matt Leinart (No.3)
    • Lendale White (No.6)
    • Darren McFadden (No.11) *Yes, too low perhaps – but has he been a consistent fantasy option?
    • Andrew Caldwell (No.12)
    • James Hardy (No.11)
  6. You Show Children That You Care About Protecting Them: After the Penn State Scandal, I decided to make it a long-term commitment of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio to donate 10 percent of every sale to Darkness to Light’s mission to end sexual abuse through community training and awareness.

The Boiler Room Series: Syracuse QB Ryan Nassib

0 Comments read Players, Quarterback, RSP Boiler Room Videos (Short Form)
I get the Nassib hype. Not sure I'm leading the wagon, but I'll follow the trail on my own horse for as long as it heads to the west coast (offense).
I get the Nassib hype. Not sure I’m leading the wagon, but I’ll follow the trail on my own horse for as long as it heads to the west coast (offense).

I won’t go as far to say that watching quarterbacks at college all-star practices is useless. There are fine points that can be gleaned from practices. But with each passing year I go to a college all-star game, the less time I want to spend studying them there. Watching Russell Wilson, Colin Kaepernick, and now Ryan Nassib goes a long way to validate this thought.

A series I started this year at the RSP blog is The Boiler Room. One of the challenges involved with player analysis is to be succinct with delivering the goods. As the author of an annual tome, I’m often a spectacular failure in this respect. Even so, I will study a prospect and see a play unfold that does a great job of encapsulating that player’s skills. When I witness these moments, I try to imagine if I would include this play as part of a cut-up of highlights for a draft show at a major network or if I was working for an NFL organization creating cut-ups for a personnel director. Unlike the No-Huddle Series, The Boiler Room is focused on prospects I expect to be drafted, and often before the fourth round.

It’s incredibly difficult to boil down any player with just one play, much less a quarterback. Yet, if I were Russ Lande pounding the table for Syracuse quarterback Ryan Nassib as my top player – yes, player –  in this draft, and I need a play to emphasize in that highlight reel, this is my nomination. As strange as it sounds, it’s an incomplete pass and it’s still one of the best quarterback plays I have seen from a prospect this year.

[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WhgDOOq3hDY?start=153rel=0&w=560&h=315]

This is a 3rd and 7 with 6:26 in the half from a 2×1 receiver, 11 personnel shotgun versus a 3-3-5 look at the Syracuse 32. USC sends five and the pressure off each edge comes hard enough that Nassib has to cut short his five-step drop and climb the pocket to his left. After demonstrating excellent feel for the pressure and his pocket, he gets his feet back into position to throw the ball.

He looks to his left to loft the ball from the left hash of the Syracuse 28 to his wide receiver on the intermediate cross with good underneath coverage at the USC 47 for an acrobatic catch. The pass is dropped, but it’s a fantastic throw.

Why is this such a telling play that belongs on the top of a highlight reel for a personnel director? Let’s break this down a photo at a time.

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One of the best things about Nassib is his ability to see the field and make quick decisions before and after the snap. On this play, USC is going to run a twist with its left defensive end while the left defensive tackle slants outside. With the outside linebacker blitzing outside the left tackle as the tight end releases down field, the defense hopes this three-man twist and blitz gets one man through untouched. Nassib sees the pre-snap pressure from the outside linebacker and also notes the free safety taking a step backwards, which is an indicator he’ll be working to the deep middle after the snap.

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After the snap, Nassib drops from center and looks down the middle to look at the two safeties as they rotate. The strong safety is moving to the middle to cover the tight end as that free safety drops as indicated before the snap. The running back spots the outside pressure coming free as the twist occupies the left side of the Syracuse line. The next photo is where I think Nassib shows something many quarterbacks don’t at any level of football.

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As Nassib feels the pressure off each edge, he opts to abort a full five-step drop. Every day I watch quarterbacks and every day I see a quarterback finish a drop on a play where I know he must see and or sense pressure coming free. These plays generally end as successful defensive efforts. The best quarterbacks I watch in the NFL possess the awareness to change things up when they know the intent of the play isn’t going to work. Nassib does this above. As you can see, I circled his eventual target at the right flat. This will technically be his third read on the play.

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Nassib demonstrates good form on his improvisation in the pocket. He extends the ball forward with both hands protecting it while looking down field and climbing past the edge rushers. He also has good feel for the open area of the pocket to his left and he slides in that direction soon enough.

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Now in a position to throw, Nassib scans the left side of the field where he has a huge throwing lane thanks to his quick-thinking and execution. I numbered the spots of the field he scans where there are or will be receivers within the next 1.5 seconds. As I write about almost weekly, climbing the pocket is an essential part of good pocket presence and a vital part of NFL quarterbacking. Nassib is among the best in this class at it.

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After making two reads to the left flat and the short middle and spotting coverage, Nassib sees his receiver over 20 yards down field crossing from right to left. He also feels the inside pressure coming free of the Syracuse center. Once again Nassib will have to maneuver from pressure in the pocket to make an accurate throw. This is where he displays fantastic accuracy, touch, and skill while off balance and under pressure.

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Nassib slides left, gets on his toes and has his shoulders in great position to make a touch throw with pressure bearing down. Maneuvering the pocket successfully against two edge rushers is praise-worthy for one play; working away from a third and making the throw he does is excellent stuff. While this play is on the far end of Nassib’s spectrum of good work, he consistently displays good touch and anticipation on throws under 30-35 yards. Beyond this range, his accuracy fails him and it’s the biggest question mark of his game.

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You can see the position of the coverage on this intermediate cross, but the photos below do an even better job showing how good Nassib’s placement is to this receiver who nearly makes an excellent catch on a pass thrown only where he can make the grab.

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I’ve seen Nassib at his best and worst and I want to watch one more before you get the 2013 RSP. If you want a complete scouting report that I think is pretty evenly balanced, Sigmund Bloom wrote one yesterday that hits the mark. I have some minor disagreements about blitz recognition, but we’ve watched different games. I also recommend you that check out Lande’s report because I also get why he believes Nassib is the most NFL-ready rookie quarterback. I also agree that if he can develop a deep arm he can become an upper echelon starter.

If you ask me today about Nassib’s prospects, I’ll tell you that I see Lande’s logic way more than I did a month ago. Stylistically speaking, he’s a weaker-armed quarterback in the mold of Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, and Matt Ryan. If he had the deep range and accuracy, I’d agree completely with Lande.

With more to analyze, I think he has the chance to develop more arm strength, but how much? If he doesn’t, I think he’s an effective but limited candidate to start for an NFL team as a journeyman who is a better fit as a backup. If he develops some arm strength to hit passes 35-45 yards down field he can become a productive, long-term starting quarterback in a system that has great talent and scheme to put a defense on its heels so Nassib is in control to pick his spots on deep passes. If he significantly improves his arm strength, he could be a special player.

Stay tuned. I am.

Post-Script: Check out this throw shared via Twitter by Shaun DePasquale at NFL Draft Zone.

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That’s a 60-yard bomb in stride with velocity.

For analysis of skill players in this year’s draft class, download the 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio available April 1. Prepayment is available now. Better yet, if you’re a fantasy owner the 56-page Post-Draft Add-on comes with the 2013 RSP at no additional charge. Best, yet, 10 percent of every sale is donated to Darkness to Light to combat sexual abuse. You can purchase past editions of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio for just $9.95 apiece.