Posts tagged Matt Waldman

How I Would Change The Senior Bowl

0 Comments read Matt Waldman
Tom Moore, Senior Bowl Coach Emeritus. Has a ring to it. Learn why the Senior Bowl should become a lyceum for coaching. Photo by Ringfrenzy
Tom Moore, Senior Bowl Coach Emeritus. Has a ring to it. Learn why the Senior Bowl should become a lyceum for coaching. Photo by Ringfrenzy

I’ll have practice observations from Day Three coming soon, but first I want to share what I would do to take the Senior Bowl into the 21st century if given the power to make major changes. The benefits would far outweigh the costs – especially in a league in its golden age making money hand over first.

Phil Savage is doing a lot to create an infrastructure that will address the minor flaws of the Senior Bowl experience. There is more organization with team interviews at the team hotels. There’s a greater level of separation among NFL team representatives, media, and fans. He has even gotten the NFL to allow fourth-year juniors with degrees to participate – a first. And as I’ve mentioned a couple of times this week, Savage wants the NFL more involved in scouting players it wants to invite to the game as well as encouraging prospects to accept the invitation.

The new director of the Senior Bowl understands that there isn’t much incentive for the highest profile seniors to attend the event. If I were an agent for Geno Smith, Tyler Eifert, or Tavon Austin, I wouldn’t recommend them to accept an invitation. It is common knowledge that 90 percent of the on-field portion of player scouting has already been done by now, why risk an injury before the NFL Combine? At present, the Combine and pro days have a greater perceived impact on a prospect’s draft stock and the prep time to “game” these pseudo-football drills is of precious value to a prospect. A player with a minor or nagging injury has more to lose exacerbating the injury or underwhelming observers at the Senior Bowl than skipping the event altogether.

I can appreciate what Savage is doing to tighten up the event even if what he is tackling is low-hanging fruit. However, he’ll have to make bigger changes if he wants to cut the 25 percent turn-down rate among first-invites to 10-12 percent. Savage and the Senior Bowl staff encouraged NFL team representatives multiple times this week to give feedback on how to make the event better.

If I were a high-ranking official of an NFL team and what I perceive as an outsider looking in is accurate, then I have a number of big changes that I would make to transform the Senior Bowl into a sterling, must-attend event that even the agents of the crème de la crème would have to encourage their clients to go. These are big-picture moves that would make scouting this game easier, enhance the image of the game and the NFL, begin to prepare the players for professional football both on and off the field, and ultimately increase the brand of the Senior Bowl to its customers and sponsors.

Hire Full-Time Coaching Staffs

I recognize the appeal of NFL staffs coaching the Senior Bowl rosters. The perception is that these teams offer players a wealth of football experience, cutting-edge teaching techniques, and it’s all backed by prestige of the NFL shield. This is my fourth year here and I don’t buy it.

The differences in quality and methodology among coaching staffs across the league are vast. Northern Illinois running back Chad Spann spent time with the Colts, Buccaneers, and Steelers during the 2011 season. The structure, the attention to teaching, and the culture of the teams all differed. It’s the same when watching the Lions run a practice compared to the Raiders, Bills, Dolphins, Bengals, or Vikings. The basic intent of some drills may be similar, but the methods, the pace, and the feedback are often worlds apart. Although there where good things I learned from the Raiders wide receiver drills, I would have felt cheated as a Senior Bowl receiver if I saw what the Lions staff did with its players.

One of the major changes I’d make is to ask the NFL to create a budget for a coaching staff with two head coaches and a full complement of assistants. The staff would assist Savage in scouting and selecting players for the event. Since there is only one game for the Senior Bowl coaches every year, the Senior Bowl committee could create programs where these coaches could hold seminars or panels for college and pro coaches to exchange ideas during the offseason. The Senior Bowl could become an incubator for coaching innovation – as my friend Sigmund Bloom would call a “Lyceum for football coaches.”

This job could have a lot of appeal for some of the great coaches of the game who may no longer wish to travel or have the same killer schedule as an NFL team, but still have something great to offer to the game as a professor emeritus of coaching. They could do consulting for NFL teams. Imagine Howard Mudd, Tom Moore, or Tony Dungy as assistant or head coaches-in-residence. The league could even have an NFL scouting school and these graduates or teachers are part of the ground-floor process of narrowing down players to invite for the game. There are a ton of far-reaching innovations from this idea that could prove lucrative for the Senior Bowl and provide long-term benefit to the NFL.

The best value of a change like this one for teams, scouts, and media is that I would require these coaches to agree upon the same drills to run prospects through their paces during Senior Bowl Week. The order, location, and execution of the drills would all be uniform. This would be easier for teams to know where to station its scouts, help the planning committee organize the viewing experience, and most important, make it easier to see how players performed relative to each other.

Add 3-5 Days to the Event

If the Senior Bowl were 10-14 days in length, the event could then become the place where the NFL has its rookie symposium. Although many of these rookies won’t make the NFL, several of them will play professional football of some sort in the CFL or Arena League. Helping these prospects become aware of the pitfalls a professional football life on and off the field can never start too early – especially during a time where players are shopping for agents, financial advisors, and are targeted to accept loans before they even see contracts. Make the Senior Bowl seminars a voice of proactive sanity.

Another benefit of extending the event is that the Senior Bowl should increase its invitation list and add another 22-44 prospects as “taxi squad” invites. They’ll attend the symposiums, study the playbooks, and have the opportunity to meet with teams, but they won’t practice unless a player from an active roster gets hurt or drops out. The additional roster spots give the bubble players a better chance to be prepared than flown down the day of practice and fitted into pads on the field while a coach is giving them a crash course of the practice schedule or scheme. This would reduce the number of players turning down the event and it would also alter the perception that the Senior Bowl is always scrambling at the last minute to fill its rosters.

Make the Mobile the “Official NFL Convention”

If the Senior Bowl could hire full-time coaches, create a coaching institute and farm out consulting, institute a scouting school, and host the Rookie Symposium, the Senior Bowl would no longer be the “Unofficial NFL Convention.” Mobile would become a hub where old and new exchange ideas, players make career transitions to scouts and coaches, and college prospects get top-notch coaching and exposure to wisdom on and off the field to prepare them for the profession. This type of investment would be good for the NFL on so many levels, I can’t see a downside. Can you?

Senior Bowl: North Squad WRs Day 1

0 Comments read Players, Wide Receiver
Oregon State's Wheaton shined on the first day of Senior Bowl practices. Photo by John Martinez Pavliga.
Oregon State Markus Wheaton shined on the first day of Senior Bowl practices. Photo by John Martinez Pavliga.

Every NFL team that conducts a Senior Bowl practice has a different style and process. The Oakland Raiders began and ended with special teams and utilized a lot of scrimmaging in a variety of 1-on-1, 5-on-7, and 11-on-11 situations. The drills I tend to get the most from feature wide receivers and the Raiders practice was no different.

While many people are focused on a receiver’s ability to catch the football in these practices, what has equal if not greater importance is everything a receiver does before the ball arrives. Monday afternoon’s practice included drills to test the craft of each receiver’s ability to establish and maintain separation before the ball arrives:

  • Agility drills to emphasize footwork and hip flexibility.
  • Receiver versus corner drills with an emphasis on releases within a five-yard boundary.
  • One-on-one receiver vs. corner press-man drills with a variety of routes.

None of the receivers I saw on the North squad did anything that altered my assessment of what they have or haven’t shown in their careers. Each of these prospects displayed strengths and weaknesses that I think will ultimately come down to an NFL team’s perception of a player’s fit within the organization and how patient they are with that player to develop. Of course, most of you reading this don’t care about the long view. You want to know who looked good and who struggled.

I don’t blame you. Here’s what I saw with each of the drills listed above and then the 5-on-7 and 11-on-11 scrimmages. Remember, catching the ball in these situations is nice but slightly overrated if the rest of the form, technique, and craft is missing.

This contact takes at least 1-2 steps for Goodwin to recover. He'll have no such leeway against good defenders in the NFL.
As I wrote about last year, this contact takes at least 1-2 steps for Goodwin to recover. He’ll have no such leeway against good defenders in the NFL and he didn’t in Senior Bowl practice.

Agility Drills

Receivers ran through a set of mini cones in a footwork pattern that the coach requested, ending the exercise with a curl inside as the break on the route to catch a pass. The focus of this exercise was to demonstrate fluid hip-turn, precise footwork, quickness, and strong change of direction while keeping the head up and looking down field.

Marquise Goodwin, Texas: Goodwin is a track star with excellent speed, but it was clear from the onset that his hip flexibility needs work. The Raiders coaches gave this feedback about his hips on multiple reps and even pulled Goodwin aside to emphasize the point after his third run through the drill. Goodwin attempted to do what the Raiders staff asked, but his movements were exaggerated and lacked the refined motor movement of someone capable of picking up this technique on the fly.

Aaron Dobson, Marshall: Dobson looked good in this drill. His feet were fluid, his hip turns were sharp for a man of his size (6’2”, 203 pounds), and he demonstrated some explosion making his final break to the football. He isn’t a burner, but he acquitted himself well in this opening exercise.

Chris Harper, Kansas State: The coaching staff asked Harper to pick up his feet during the drill. The 228-pound receiver is quick for his size, but his movement could stand to get sharper. I didn’t see much improvement in subsequent reps after the coach’s feedback.

Markus Wheaton, Oregon State: Wheaton was quick, crisp, and fluid with each rep. He demonstrated quick hips and good control making turns. He also caught the ball well despite some throws that were arriving at awkward windows as he executed his break at the end of each rep.

Denard Robinson, Michigan: They key takeaway from Robinson in this drill was “intent.” Robinson’s movements were careful and intentionally slow to master the precision of the footwork and hip movement with each drill. While I thought this was admirable for a quarterback-turned-receiver, eventually the coaching staff turned up the heat and exhorted Robinson to speed up during the final reps of the exercise. Robinson caught each ball cleanly, but the position is new to him and I’ll be interested to see how much he improves with this drill between now and Wednesday.

Aaron Mellette, Elon: Mellette looked fast and his feet were pretty good, but the hips didn’t move with the alacrity you want to see. He was quick, but the precision was lacking. Mellette caught the ball well and I like the athleticism, but the raw technique on this drill was a preview for the rest of the drills in practice.

Denard Robinson is known for his speed, but naturally this new convert to wide receiver was doing everything in slow motion on Day 1 of Senior Bowl practices. Photo by Adam Glanzman.
Denard Robinson is known for his speed, but naturally this new convert to wide receiver was doing everything in slow motion on Day 1 of Senior Bowl practices. Photo by Adam Glanzman.

Four-Corner Cone Boundaries vs. Cornerbacks

Two pairs of cones demarcated a 10-yard-long x 5-yard-wide boundary. The receivers faced the corners in press-man coverage. The objective for the corners was to force the receivers outside the width of the cones before the receivers reached that 10-yard distance. Lots of hands technique to study in this drill.

Goodwin: Goodwin’s size (5’8”, 179) didn’t do him any favors in this drill. When a corner locked onto Goodwin, the receiver had difficulty working free unless he used a spin move of some type to work loose. The corners repeatedly pushed Goodwin outside the width of the boundary.

Dobson: Dobson had a lot of success with this drill and the coaches praised him for playing big. The Marshall receiver used his hands well in this drill. He often bulled through the jam, or deflected the defenders’ arms and then used his size and quickness to get on top of his opponent.

Harper: Harper got coached up after getting knocked down during his first rep and his subsequent reps incrementally improved. He performed better when he played to his size, but there were moments where he tried to be use quickness to get on top of the corner and it failed. I’ll be interested in seeing if he makes the adjustment to his natural strengths in subsequent practices.

Mellette:  Multiple defenders got the best of Mellette in this drill, but has he started to use his 216-pound frame, his reps improved to the point that he began to win some of the action. Mellette is one of those players who might tease an organization because the natural ability is there, but can he accelerate his learning curve to develop into an NFL-caliber receiver. This will be the big question.

Wheaton: Wheaton was the most fluid of the receivers in this drill. He was the best at integrating his hands and footwork, using his hands adeptly to swat away the jam and position his feet to create angles so he could accelerate past the defenders with every rep. He is the most polished receiver of the North squad and there were further illustrations of this fact later in practice.

Robinson: Once again, slow motion was the theme of Robinson’s performances in the drill. I have no notes of him winning these battles. He wasn’t pushed aside as much as held up too long and unable to get on top of the defender.

1-on-1’s, 5-on-7’s, and 11-on-11’s vs. Corners with a Variety of Routes

Dobson: I continued to notice precision and fluid movement from Dobson, who demonstrated a nice mix of physical play and quickness. I watched Dobson integrate his footwork and hands well to get open on a deep fade, but the quarterback underthrew the pass and the cornerback tipped the ball away. The one thing the coaches notice that was a repeat issue came at the end of routes as the ball arrived: Dobson had a tendency to lean back towards the ball rather than attack the ball after his break. I hope to see a more aggressive finish to his routes in subsequent practices.

Goodwin: When Goodwin got a free release, he made defenders pay with his speed. However, he had a lot of wasted, imprecise movement off the line versus quality press coverage. I want to see him make incremental improvement versus press coverage. One of his best plays of the day was a crossing route with a sharp break and good catch in the thick of zone coverage. He did a nice job reaching for the ball over his head, making the grab, and turning up field.

Mellette: The most notable issue with the Elon receiver came in these drills. He had difficulty gaining position to shield the defender from the pass after his break. I like his size and quickness, but his hands technique and the depth and angle of his breaks were lacking.

Harper: He did a strong job of selling some two-move routes although I thought each of these instances the second move into his break was a little ragged and something he’ll need to sharpen. His breaks at the end of routes weren’t as sharp or as quick as the early portion of his patterns. At the same time, he’s decisive and has a nice size-speed combo that allowed him to keep defenders guessing about the tact he’d take with each rep. I did notice that he was a little better when he didn’t have to deal with contact despite the fact he’s the biggest receiver of this group. He beat a corner by two steps on a deep sideline fade up the right sideline, but Syracuse quarterback Ryan Nassib was either late on the throw or simply underthrew the ball by 3-5 yards.

Wheaton: The Beavers receiver worked well back to the football and he did a good job versus off-man technique as well as press coverage. He ran the best fade route of the North practice, gaining early separation with an outside move, slipping inside the defender to get his back to the defender and also buying real estate away from the sideline to make the quarterback’s job easier by giving the passer room to target the receiver at the sideline. Although the quarterback overthrew Wheaton, this was a textbook sideline fade that a receiver like Mario Manningham still doesn’t run consistently as well. On one route, a 12-yard out that looked like the beginning of a double move, Wheaton got the best of the corner so early into the route that the defender had no other choice but pull the receiver to the turf so he wasn’t beaten.  Wheaton’s best catch was at the end of 11-on-11’s when he beat his man on a streak up the left flat and made a turning, leaping catch behind coverage on a late, underthrown ball. If Miami quarterback Zac Dysert demonstrates better anticipation, Wheaton has a 50-yard touchdown that he catches in stride.

For more analysis of skill players, download the 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio available April 1. Prepayment is available now. Better yet, if you’re a fantasy owner the 56-page Post-Draft Add-on comes with the 2013 RSP at no additional charge. Best, yet, 10 percent of every sale is donated to Darkness to Light to combat sexual abuse. You can purchase past editions of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio for just $9.95 apiece.

2013 Senior Bowl: Weigh-in

0 Comments read Players
Clemson defensive tackle Malliciah Goodman has condor-like (thanks Jene-Bramel), 87.68-inch wingspan. But can he play? Photo by Parker Anderson.
Clemson defensive tackle Malliciah Goodman has condor-like (thanks Jene-Bramel), 87.68-inch wingspan. But can he play? Photo by Parker Anderson.

Unless you like looking at 20 year-old guys in some newer version of Lycra, the Senior Bowl weigh-in is a mash-up of a slave trade auction and the opening prison scene at Shawshank. A majority of these athletes would be told to lose weight if they were at a doctor’s appointment. With the rate of obesity and violence of the game, it’s no wonder NFL players have such short life spans.

It’s a sad sight in many respects. At the same time, you have to have some sort of macabre, gallows humor about this segment of the all-star event. It helps that for most of these athletes playing in the NFL is a dream and the compensation has the potential to be life-changing – if they can manage to keep an agent, accountant, family member, or future ex-spouse from robbing them blind. There I go again. I’d quit while I was only slightly behind, but this is just the intro.

The highlight of the weigh-in this year wasn’t a particular player or group of players. I’ll get to some of those tidbits soon. Weigh-ins just offer another layer of information that can be helpful within the overall analysis of a prospect. What was most telling was Senior Bowl Head Phil Savage giving a five-minute speech at the podium, something I’ve never seen the head of this event do in the past.

Savage has made some noticeable changes to the Senior Bowl event since taking over. The first difference I saw was this summer when he published scouting reports since the beginning of the college season and sent them to media on a weekly basis. The more important changes to the event were unveiled this morning.

The weigh-in was in a much larger room with far more strategic and organized seating than in previous years. Savage had the room split into two sections. The ground level seating near the stage was reserved for NFL personnel. Behind this area was stadium seating for media, although a lot of NFL guys also chose to sit there, too.

Savage’s opening statement covered a number of topics that I think reflect the NFL’s desire to upgrade the Senior Bowl experience and the former Browns GM has acted upon this feedback with a sense of urgency:

  • Structure to Team-Player Interviews: There was no defined interview schedule for teams and players in the past. It’s been a free-for-all and based on Savage’s commentary, I get the feeling teams weren’t happy that they couldn’t get equal time with every player and the lack of structure often put players in a bad light because the chaos made it easy for players to miss appointments. This year Savage created one basic schedule where each day there were would be 36 players scheduled to meet on the first floor of the team hotel. There will be four media rooms and nine players from this group of 36 will be cycled through each room four times so they can meet with every team. The fact that there was no planning like this before just boggles my mind. The remaining 70 players not scheduled are free to meet with teams as arranged informally.
  • Planning Instructions to Teams: Savage recommended teams to give players business cards with times for any interviews they arrange from a conversation. Savage has given the players notebooks to keep business cards. The Browns GM said these notebooks were to help players be held accountable for meeting interview times, but I have to say that it smelled a lot like a smart executive teaching his players to manage upward by expecting some documentation from scouts and team reps who might have contributed equally to the chaos.
  • Future Goal – Increase Player Acceptance Rate: Savage told the audience of NFL teams and media that his team examines 300 players on a Senior Bowl Watch List and visits 25 schools with the help of NFL team personnel men to provide feedback on performances. They narrow this list to 100 players on December 1. This year, 24 players turned down the opportunity to participate in the Senior Bowl. Players like Geno Smith and Montee Ball simply opted not to participate. Guys like Matt Barkley, Travis Kelce and Tyler Eifert had in-season injuries where they opted to continue rehab to maximize their showing at the combine – emphasis on placing higher emphasis on the combine than the value of all-star game practices. Tavon Austin was a late injury scratch. Savage asked the teams to continue helping the Senior Bowl selection committee moving forward because they want to cut the non-attendance rate of first-invitees in half from 24 for 10-12 in 2014. The biggest takeaway is that I think he wants to change the player-agent mentality that the Combine and Pro Day workouts are more important than this all-star environment.

The weigh-in continues to offer small layers of information that some may blow out of proportion, but at the same time might offer important clues as time passes and we gather additional intelligence on these prospects. Here are some highlights from my perspective as a skill positioned-focused analyst of player talent:

Although there are an increasing number of quarterbacks who possess physiques that look more like running backs and wide receivers, many of them – especially the pocket passing quarterbacks  – don’t look like guys you’d imagine capable of handling the most difficult position in sports. There are pro golfers in this era of sport who look far more impressive as athletes than some of these guys. NFL Draft Monster analyst Benjamin Albright compared Mike Glennon’s side profile to a pasty ironing board. Even E.J. Manuel didn’t strike me as an unbelievably conditioned athlete. Again, this is the norm and it goes to show you that quarterback has a large mental component to the craft. I wouldn’t pay too much attention to this commentary about the position.

As for running backs, that’s a little different. Auburn’s Onterrio McCalebb weighed in at 164 pounds. He has the musculature of a 185-pound guy, but that 164-pound result indicates to me that he’s a kick return specialist at best. I’ll be surprised if the South Roster allows him to participate in all the running back drills. McCalebb was listed at 174 before the weigh-in.

Another back on the border is Fresno State’s Robbie Rouse. At 5’5″, 186 pounds, I like the physical dimensions but it’s still rather small for a back. If he were 5’7″ and 198 – or 208 – I’d really be far more intrigued. Nonetheless, he was a good player and I look forward to seeing if he can run big and win over folks this week. I think he has a far better shot than McCalebb. Rouse was listed at 190 pounds before the weigh-in.

The most physically impressive tight end of this group was Rice’s Vance McDonald. Of all the players here, I thought McDonald’s frame was the best proportioned from his arms and chest to his waist and legs. He was a well-muscled, but not overly chiseled 6’4″ 262 pounds with 10-inch hands and an 81.58-inch wingspan, longest of any skill player here and longer than many linemen. McDonald is a versatile player, who often saw time split as a wide receiver on cornerbacks as a part of the Owls.

The largest wingspan at the weigh-in was Clemson defensive lineman Malliciah Goodman. The 6’3″ 272-pound defender has an 87.68-inch wingspan with 10.78-inch hands. He physically reminded me of what I’ve read of novelist Walter Moseley’s character Socrates Fortolow, a convicted felon who did his damage with his bare hands. Goodman’s arms were so long I joked that he could probably tell you if the ground was wet without bending his knees. He was also one of the most impressive physiques in the building.

Jonathan Franklin as a little heavier than listed, but I still would have liked to see him in the 210-pound range. Probably won't happen, but he can still player. Photo by Han Shot First.
Jonathan Franklin as a little heavier than listed, but I still would have liked to see him in the 210-pound range. Probably won’t happen, but he can still player. Photo by Han Shot First.

Other tidbits:

  • I thought UCLA runner Jonathan Franklin was a little light at 201 pounds. I hoped he’d be another 8-10 pounds heavier. I wonder if he has the frame to add more weight. He’s a tough, smart runner and it’s not a major concern, but a layer of information I’ll probably continue to think about as I watch him.
  • Michigan quarterback-turned-wide receiver Denard Robinson has 10-inch hands, which are a half-inch larger than the receiver with the next biggest hands on either roster. However, he also has an injury to his left hand where he cannot extend his pinky. It will be fun to see if that impacts his ability to catch a football. Judging from Torry Holt’s mangled fingers, I doubt it.
  • Think there isn’t a bias against Harvard players? The most audible sound I heard in this auditorium came when fullback Kyle Juszcyzyk took the stage and the announcer listed his school. The 6’3″, 248-pound prospect looked every bit the football player but that collective murmur told me that Harvard still elicits a reaction and I don’t take it as necessarily a positive.

More coming after practice. If you want to see preview from Jene Bramel and me, check out the NY Times Fifth Down.

For additional player analysis heading into the 2013 NFL Draft, here’s my running page of blog pieces here and at Football Outsiders.

Reads Listens Views 1/18/2013

0 Comments read Reads Listens Views

Life of Pi

This week on Reads Listens Views: Lance Zierlein with a round of “Microwave Scouting”; Ryan Riddle tells you what it was like to participate in a college all-star game; Andy Benoit previews the conference championships; three books I read this month that I think most of you will enjoy; experimental Latin music; and the 2013 RSP is available for pre-payment.

Prepayment for the 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio is Available

If you’re one of my readers who, over the years, has convinced me to offer prepayment (thank you), now’s the time. The 2013 RSP is available for $19.95 and will be available for download April (as usual). If you’ve purchased the RSP in the past, you can prepay at this link. You also get the post-draft add-on a week after the draft that includes tiered fantasy rankings, average dynasty draft spot data, team fit analysis, sleepers, UDFAs to watch, and dynasty drafting tips. It’s a second magazine-sized publication that is included with the purchase of the pre-draft publication. Past issues (2006-2012) are available for $9.95 apiece and the RSP donates 10 percent of every sale to Darkness to Light to train communities to recognize and prevent the dynamics of sexual abuse.

Senior Bowl

Once again, I’ll be at the Senior Bowl with Jene Bramel and Cecil Lammey. We’ll be covering practices and media night for the New York Times Fifth Down and Lammey’s ESPN affiliate as well as providing analysis and interviews here at the RSP blog. Stay tuned.

[youtube=http://youtu.be/jW4lDSx1GbQ]

Reads

Non-Football Reads

Here are three books I’ve read this month and I’d bet most of you will enjoy at least two of them.

  • Life of Pi by Yann Martel – I’m looking forward to seeing the movie, but the book was so good I might read it again before taking in Ang Lee’s vision of this story about an Indian Boy who is stranded on a lifeboat in the Pacific with a zebra, an orangutan, a hyena, and a Bengal tiger. The story is far less fantastical than it appears. However it is fantastic on every level.
  • The Financial Lives of Poets by Jess Walter – This is essentially what I hope to hear doesn’t happen to Chris Brown or Chase Stuart in 15 years when mid-life crisis hits. This novel is a lot of fun and will make you laugh out loud.
  • Killing Johnny Fry by Walter Mosely – Walter Mosely is one of my favorite writers. This is a much different story than his mystery novels – it’s a ‘sexistential novel.’ Not for everyone, but a good read nonetheless.

Listens

Views

 

 

 

Futures: Tennessee Gunslinger Tyler Bray

0 Comments read Players, Quarterback
Bray has the arm talent, but does he have the mental discipline to learn the game at its highest level? Photo by Wade Rackley.
Bray has the arm talent, but does he have the mental discipline to learn the game at its highest level? Photo by Wade Rackley.

We can talk the semantics of perceptions all we want, but there’s a palpable sense that the rookie quarterback class of 2012 has a viable chance to become the best in recent memory. While there are a myriad of things that can happen to alter the promising career paths of Russell Wilson, Andrew Luck, Robert Griffin, and Ryan Tannehill, the 2013 class of prospects is a letdown by comparison. That doesn’t mean it lacks the talent to exceed the lower expectations.

Tennessee quarterback Tyler Bray is a great example. Compared to Wilson, Luck, Griffin, and Tannehill’s games -– which included a level of technical discipline and decision-making maturity uncommon for most rookie quarterbacks –- Bray is a more typical rookie prospect. His flaws are more apparent to the untrained eye.

More so than any quarterback in this 2013 class, Bray fits the gunslinger mold. The Clint Eastwood movie The Good, The Bad, and The Ugly is the appropriate summation of what I see from the Volunteers prospect. Physically, he’s a franchise-caliber talent with the confidence to make big-time NFL throws. He still needs to develop the decision-making maturity and technical discipline that the headliners of the 2012 class displayed in relative abundance. The question is whether he’ll cross the divide between talent and production that all rookies must face.

I don’t want to underestimate the possibility that he’ll mature as a professional, but I have my doubts. On-field performance is the ultimate display of preparation. Right now, there are a lot of loose ends.

Bray’s performance against Georgia: 24-of-45, with 281 yards, two touchdowns, and three picks, was a great display of everything good, bad, and ugly about his quarterbacking. Georgia has an aggressive, 3-4 defense with NFL-caliber athletes like Jarvis Jones, Alec Ogletree, Sean Williams, and Bacarri Rambo. These defenders have the strength, speed, sideline-to-sideline range, and football smarts to project Bray’s current game at the pro level.

I’m probably belaboring the point, but projecting a player’s performance at the NFL level is one of the most important facets of player evaluation. An accurate throw, a wide-open receiver, or a large running lane at the college level is vastly different in the NFL. This is one of the reasons why some have often been too optimistic about running back prospects from Wisconsin in the past 15 years. At the same time, some are all-too-quick to write off poor box score data from a player like Matt Forte, a player who I once watched average less than two yards per carry against a loaded LSU defense, but still delivered one of the most impressive performances I saw from a runner that year.

In my view, the more on-field adversity I can see that tests a player’s physical skill, emotional maturity, and football smarts, the better. Bray gets his share of adversity here. Physically, he’s capable. Conceptually, he’s not prepared. This is where his game falls apart most often. Read the rest at Football Outsiders

Reads Listens Views 1/11/2013

0 Comments read Reads Listens Views
Combine this lunch at Saucy Q with the New York Times Fifth Down Blog Practice Reports and you almost have the complete Senior Bowl experience at home. Photo by Cecil Lammey.
Combine this lunch at Saucy Q with the New York Times Fifth Down Blog Practice Reports and you almost have the complete Senior Bowl experience at home. Photo by Cecil Lammey.

New RSP Blog Menus

I’m always looking for ways to improve content navigation on this site. Yesterday, I added an NFL Draft menu that features links to all player analysis I featured on this blog, Football Outsiders, and the New York Times Fifth Down. These pieces are on individual pages according to the year I published them: 2011, 2012, and (thus far) 2013. Players are listed by position and alphabetized. Hopefully this makes your life easier.

Prepayment for the 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio is Available

If you’re one of my readers who, over the years, has convinced me to offer prepayment (thank you), now’s the time. The 2013 RSP is available for $19.95 and will be available for download April (as usual). You also get the post-draft add-on a week after the draft that includes tiered fantasy rankings, average dynasty draft spot data, team fit analysis, sleepers, UDFAs to watch, and dynasty drafting tips. It’s a second magazine-sized publication that is included with the purchase of the pre-draft publication. Past issues (2006-2012) are available for $9.95 apiece and the RSP donates 10 percent of every sale to Darkness to Light to train communities to recognize and prevent the dynamics of sexual abuse.

Senior Bowl

Once again, I’ll be at the Senior Bowl with Jene Bramel and Cecil Lammey. We’ll be covering practices and media night for the New York Times Fifth Down and Lammey’s ESPN affiliate as well as providing analysis and interviews here. Stay tuned.

Views

[youtube=http://youtu.be/fLqxDYTbxhk]

Football Reads

Non-Football Reads

Listens

[youtube=http://youtu.be/n6ioqgxaA-E]

 

 

 

The Boiler Room: Stanford TE Zach Ertz

0 Comments read Players, RSP Boiler Room Videos (Short Form), Tight End
Zach Ertz, another Stanford prospect, in the Boiler Room (photo by Han Shot First).
Zach Ertz, another Stanford prospect, in the Boiler Room (photo by Han Shot First).

Stanford tight end Zach Ertz declared for the draft this week. If someone could only see one play that would matter in deciding his draft day fate, which play would I use to highlight that prospect’s skills ? Will this highlight boil down this prospect to his essentials? That’s the thinking behind The Boiler Room – analysis of what makes a player worth drafting by boiling down as much as I can into a single play.

One of the challenges involved with player analysis is to be succinct with delivering the goods. As the author of an annual tome, I’m often a spectacular failure in this respect. Even so, I will study a prospect and see a play unfold that does a great job of encapsulating that player’s skills. When I witness these moments, I try to imagine if I would include this play as part of a cut-up of highlights for a draft show at a major network or if I was working for an NFL organization creating cut-ups for a personnel director.

Unlike the No-Huddle Series, The Boiler Room is focused on prospects I expect to be drafted, and often before the fourth round. Today’s prospect is another Stanford player, Zach Ertz. The 6-6, 252-pound tight end is near the top of a class loaded with several strong prospects at the position. What makes Ertz an NFL prospect is his fluid athleticism in an in-line tight end’s body.

This 2nd-and-10 game-winning score with 10:30 left against USC is a highlight you’ll see this spring when an NFL team calls his Ertz’s name at the NFL Draft.

Ertz may have in-line tight end size, but NFL teams will like that they can split him outside.
Ertz may have in-line tight end size, but NFL teams will like that they can split him outside.

This is a 21 personnel, I-formation, 1×1 receiver set. Ertz is the single receiver to the strong side facing a cornerback playing single coverage at the line of scrimmage. If you count the number of defenders in this photo, you’ll see that there is only one safety deep and in the middle of the field. This alignment confirms that Ertz has drawn man coverage. The defender is 6-1, 190-pound corner Torin Harris. Physically, this is a mismatch – especially on routes where Ertz can use his frame to shield the defender from the ball.

The easiest of these routes for Ertz to use his size would be options where he can post-up (fades) or break back to the quarterback (hooks, curls, quick slants, or outs). Where it seems less likely for Ertz to win against Harris, or any top-profile college program cornerback is a deeper route that requires a good story in order to gain separation. This is exactly what Ertz does with this corner-post for a 37-yard touchdown.

The play begins with Harris beginning his back-pedal after the snap with his back to the sideline and spying the pocket.

ErtzA2

The Trojans’ corner doesn’t try to jam Ertz because of the tight end’s size presents an advantage early in the route. Harris opts to stare into the offensive backfield and utilize his quickness to break on the football. The corner has his back to the sideline during this release down field because he hopes to funnel the play inside where he can get help from his teammates – especially if this is a short slant. Shortly after crossing the line of scrimmage, Ertz bends the route inside and looks inside as if he’s about to break on the slant.

ErtzA2 ErtzA3

As soon as Harris reacts to Ertz’s inside move, the tight end plants and dips outside  as if he’s heading for the corner. Route running is a lot like telling a suspenseful story: it’s best to be two steps ahead of the audience. Defenders are a lot like an audience. Most members of the audience anticipate the first move or change in the plot of a story. Not as many anticipate the second twist in the plot line so most of them react as if this is the true path of the story. It is this reaction where they tend to make the strongest commitment to compensate for anticipating the first move, but not the second.

ErtzA4

To generate this reaction the route runner must display a strong attention to detail, precision with his footwork, and the quickness and agility to execute with enough fluidity to manipulate the defender. Ertz demonstrates each of these facets of route running on this play, drawing Harris out of position, and forcing the corner to react in the moment.

ErtzA5

Ertz’s break to the outside forces Harris to react by turning outside and continuing his back pedal. If it wasn’t clear from the beginning of the route that the corner was playing the ball and not the man, this still reinforces it. Harris continues to the pocket while reacting to Ertz’s second break. Meanwhile, Ertz is setting up his third move, a break to the post while Harris continues to react to the potential corner route. The fact that Ertz’s position is behind and shaded to the corner’s outside shoulder keeps the tight end just out of Harris’ peripheral vision. Despite the fact that Ertz is not within site of the corner at this moment, he still sells the outside break with his head.

This detail is important because he doesn’t know what the exactly position or sight line the corner will have before he executes the route and failing to sell even the slightest detail can tip off a defender. Further, there is always the chance that the safety doesn’t buy what Ertz is selling and works to the middle of the field early enough to foil the play.

ErtzA7

By the time Ertz breaks inside, Harris has committed enough to the post route that it will require a bad throw for the corner to recover and defend the pass. The direction of the knees and hips tell the story. In this case, Harris falls for the bait and the result is Ertz gaining at least three steps of separation.

ErtzA8

If you outlined Harris and pasted that outline in this space between him and Ertz, there would be enough room for three outlines. Ertz turns towards the throw and gets his head around and his hands up. A route with this detail of movement to set up the break requires the receiver to make a late adjustment to track the football on a pass that should be arriving with some heat.

ErtzA9

Everything about Ertz’s form at this point is perfect: His back is to the defender thanks to his work to set up the break; his arms are extended to the first available point to catch the pass; and his hands are in position to make the catch with his palms facing the ball and his fingers up and splayed inward. When you see a receiver catch the ball close to his body in this situation it’s often because he lacks confidence in his ability to catch the ball with his hands or he doesn’t have mastery of knowing the correct hand position to use to attack a ball that is between belt and chest level. This pass is a little higher than that, but still in an area where I see receivers have difficulty with the position of their hands.

ErtzA10

Within a step of catching the ball, Ertz does a good job of securing the pass and looking to the safety approaching from the inside. The plant and dip under the defender is another demonstration of quick thinking and agility.

ErtzA11

As Ertz finishes planting the outside foot and turning his hips inside, he also lowers his pads in anticipation of contact and has both hands on the football. These are all good reactions. The only thing Ertz doesn’t do is get the ball closer to his body in anticipation of a hit. Fortunately for the Stanford tight end, his move is good enough to avoid the safety and get the ball tucked firmly into his inside arm as he breaks from the outside pursuit.

ErtzA12

The to the middle of the field not only helps him avoid the safety, but it also puts Ertz’s teammate in position to block Harris. All that is left between Ertz and the end zone is the pursuit behind him.

Ertz13

Remember that Ertz just executed a sharp change of direction that would slow the gait of any player. As No.16 closes on Ertz, I like how the tight end demonstrates the awareness to dive for the goal line. It illustrates that Ertz saw the backside pursuit as he made this cut inside the safety and that he has skill at processing what to do as a ball carrier in the open field. Within a few steps he extends the ball towards the end zone, just ahead of the defender attempting to punch the ball loose.

ErtzA14

Ertz anticipates the defender, dives for the goal line, and lands in the end zone maintaining control of the football. It’s the culmination of a play that illustrates why a defender better not take this big man for granted. Harris playing the ball over the man did just that and he paid the price.

Ertz is a lot like Bengals receiver Jermaine Gresham, a big, physical, and agile player capable of developing into an NFL starter and intermediate threat with big-play ability. What this play doesn’t show you represents a lot of what he’ll need to improve: using his hands at the line of scrimmage and making receptions after contact from a defender. If he can improve his game, I think he can develop into a performer with Heath Miller’s upside. I still have more to study so don’t take the Miller comparison as anything more than a distant summit of Ertz’s potential. Still, the view from this level is promising.

For more analysis of skill players like this post, download the 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio available April 1. Prepayment is available now. Better yet, if you’re a fantasy owner the 56-page Post-Draft Add-on comes with the 2013 RSP at no additional charge. Best, yet, 10 percent of every sale is donated to Darkness to Light to combat sexual abuse. You can purchase past editions of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio for just $9.95 apiece.

Reads Listens Views 1/4/2013

0 Comments read Reads Listens Views
Has the RSP been your MVP (Most Valuable Publication)? The 2013 edition, like Adrian Peterson, is on schedule (Photo by Langzi).
Has the RSP been your MVP (Most Valuable Publication)? The 2013 edition, like Adrian Peterson, is on schedule  to deliver the goods (Photo by Langzi).

Now Accepting Prepayment for the 2013 RSP

I’m spending the weekend with a bunch of Footballguys  watching the playoffs and talking shop. Meanwhile here’s some welcome news for those of you who have asked me when you can prepay for the 2013 RSP. The answer is now: If you wish to prepay for the April 1 download of the 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio, you can do so at www.mattwaldman.com. I have already evaluated 130 skill players for the 2013 edition and just like last year, included with the purchase of the RSP will be access to download the wildly popular, Post-Draft Add-On. I publish this updated analysis after the NFL Draft and it includes updated positional rankings, tiered fantasy rankings, ceiling scores, and a ton of post-draft analysis that comes as part of the 2013 RSP purchase. With 10 percent of each sale going to Darkness to Light, it’s a must-have for draftniks, football fans, and fantasy owners.

New RSP Blog Series – The Boiler Room

Photo by Sebastian Niedlich
Photo by Sebastian Niedlich

[People] don’t like to break a player down, look at his particulars. That involves details. Most people get bored with details. Because in order to look at the details, you have to love what you’re doing, and you have to be highly motivated. I loved playing football. I relished the details.

– Jim Brown

One of the challenges involved with player analysis is to be succinct with delivering the goods. As the author of an annual tome, I’m often a spectacular failure in this respect. Even so, I will often study a prospect and see a play unfold that does a great job of encapsulating that player’s skills. When I witness these moments, I imagine that if I were part of the production team at a major network putting together highlights for a draft show or I was working for an NFL organization creating cut-ups for a personnel director, I try to imagine if this highlight will boil down this prospect to his essentials.

That’s the thinking behind The Boiler Room – analysis of what makes a player worth drafting by boiling down as much as I can into a single play. Unlike the No-Huddle Series, The Boiler Room is focused on prospects I expect to be drafted, and often before the fourth round. My first subject of the series will be 2013 Rose Bowl MVP Stepfan Taylor. Read it Monday morning.

Views – Kenny Garret, Kenny Kirkland, Jeff “Tain” Watts, and Robert Hurst Blowing the Roof Off

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UFM9tIKZGjk&feature=share&list=PLX1Nx57UJgZkH87bmhCgXsp0QxzlCVPXZ]

Listens

Football Reads

Non-Football Reads

  • The Lives They Lived  – A good series that featured those who died in 2012 by focusing on how they lived.
  • Living Apart: Fair Housing In America – There were three pillars created to desegregate America. Perhaps the most important is the one that is least enforced.
  • Segregation Study – See how things of changed (Atlanta) or how they basically stayed the same (Cleveland).

Chicken or Egg: RB Stefphon Jefferson or Nevada Scheme?

0 Comments read Players, Running Back
The chicken or egg argument in football is between the individual and the team. One example is junior RB Stepfon Jefferson or Nevada's offensive scheme (artwork by Banksy, photo by Jan Slangen).
The chicken or egg argument in football is between the individual and the team. One example is junior RB Stefphon Jefferson or Nevada’s offensive scheme (Artwork by Banksy. Photo by Jan Slangen).

Nevada running back Stefphon Jefferson declared for the NFL Draft this week. Looking at the numbers, it’s hard to blame him. Although he only had 73 carries as a freshman and sophomore, his junior year blew away all expectations:

  •  375 carries and 397 total touches
  • 5.0 yards-per-carry average
  • 1883 yards rushing
  • 2053 yards from scrimmage
  • 25 total touchdowns

Jefferson only had one game in this year with fewer than 20 carries and seven of those contests were 30-carry workloads. Listed at 5-11, 210 pounds, the junior runner has the build to add another 5-10 pounds, which would make him a prospect with suitable dimensions to become a potential lead back or feature runner if going strictly by these numbers.

It’s also worth noting that Jefferson is a patient runner.  He does a good job of pressing a hole and cutting back to the open lane. I’m impressed with how he allows his blocks to develop and hits the hole at a good angle – often doing so with a decisive burst. The problem is that behind all of these positive details is a runner who might be more of a product of this Nevada Wolfpack scheme. In the right NFL system, Jefferson has enough positives to develop into a contributor. The key phrase is “the right NFL system,” because in the wrong one, he might not make the team.

There are several issues that I’ll address in the 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio, but the most glaring one is something that I first hoped were flashes of maturity rather than a deficiency in his game. Most backs I see in the college game tend to use their speed, quickness, and agility to bounce runs outside or attempt risky cutbacks. I’ve coined this tendency as Taking It to The Corner Store. This syndrome can be fatal for a running back’s career, but it generally has a strong recovery rate. Jamaal Charles, LeSean McCoy, and C.J. Spiller recovered nicely. The last known career casualty has been Laurence Maroney.

It’s unusual when a player has the opposite problem and doesn’t possess the cutback skills to bounce runs away from penetration or take advantage of larger cutback lanes to the opposite guard or tackle. So when I first saw Jefferson eschew a cutback lane and lower his head into the line of scrimmage to get what was available ahead, I wanted to believe he was taking a wiser course of action that I criticize many back for ignoring. Unless I see something different in the next few months, this is not the case.

Jefferson lacks the ability to make sharp, explosive, lateral cuts. Like Darren McFadden, he’s more of a run bender than a slasher. McFadden’s ability to bend runs at top speed makes him an exceptional case among NFL runners, because few straight-ahead, speed runners succeed in this era of pro football without pro-caliber, NFL lateral agility. Based on what I have seen from Jefferson, I don’t see a back with McFadden’s speed.

Here are six runs of Jefferson’s from Nevada’s bowl game against Arizona that illustrate why Chris Ault’s pistol attack complements Jefferson’s style while masking weaknesses that could limit the runner’s appeal in the NFL Draft. These runs are representative of the 30-plus attempts I saw from Jefferson against the Wildcats: carries through large holes or attempts where Jefferson could bend a run towards a secondary crease after passing through a large primary hole.

Big Holes, Big Plays

Ault’s run system isn’t purely a gap or zone scheme. For the uninitiated, a gap (or angle blocking) scheme is a ground attack where lineman pull or trap to a specific spot and the runner is suppose to run to that one area of the line and use his strength and speed to get whatever he can through the crease that the line creates. A zone scheme allows a runner to have several options to enter the line of scrimmage and the blocking tends to be slanting in a direction without the pulling of linemen.

Ault uses both methods in his offense and Jefferson’s vision is good enough that he produces well with both styles of plays. However, his style works best with gap schemes because he’s more of a straight-line runner who likes to hit the hole hard and fast. Here’s a 14-yard touchdown with 6:00 in the half that is a great angle blocking play from a 12 personnel pistol set with an unbalanced line and twin receivers on the strong side.

This is one of my favorite pistol runs. because of the alignment of the wing back.

This is one of my favorite pistol runs. because of the alignment of the wing back. Ault has designed this offense so the play can be a gap play, a zone play, a play action pass, or a straight pass. There’s a ton of versatility with this alignment and the added flavor of the receiver “ghosting” behind the runner to add the threat of the end around is just another cool wrinkle. What I love about this as a gap play is that most defenses are use to the concept of a guard pulling around center and a fullback entering the hole, but the placement and use of the wing back is just different enough to make it harder for a defender to see what’s coming at him.

Jefferson A2

Although the wing back is essentially a fullback and not far from being an offset blocker in an I formation, the angle is just wide enough that when he pulls across the formation the defender can choose the wrong gap or run right through the tunnel and mistake that light on the other side as something less painful than a 255-pound freight train. The linebacker in orange considers the gap outside the puling guard before opting for the gap to the guard’s inside shoulder. Does he see the pulling wing back? If he does, it’s still a tough angle to get good position to hit and shed that block to the ball carrier. Here’s the red zone angle of the play.

Endzone view from No. 38's perspective.
Endzone view from No. 38’s perspective.
No.38 takes one step outside to cover the gap outside left guard.
No.38 takes one step outside to cover the gap outside left guard.
No.38 is outside the pulling guard and waiting on the runner's approach, but does he really see what's lurking around the corner? Why do I feel like I'm diagramming a shark attack? I like it.
No.38 is outside the pulling guard and waiting on the runner’s approach, but does he really see what’s lurking around the corner? Why do I feel like I’m diagramming a shark attack? Worse yet, I like it.
Once the LB hops back to the inside because of his read of the RB, he's looking headlong into that 255 lb. freight train.
Once the LB hops back to the inside because of his read of the RB, he’s looking headlong into that 255 lb. freight train.
This isn't a hole, it's a large force field.
This isn’t a hole, it’s a large force field.

Jefferson hits this small canyon and goes untouched for the 14 yards to the end zone. Crazy as it sounds, this is one of the smaller craters that the Nevada line blasts in this contest.

Maturity or Agility Lacking?

Here is a 1st-and-10 with 4:22 in the half from a weak side trips, 11 personnel pistol formation. This run appears to be a zone play to left guard with a zone read for the quarterback to keep it around right end according to the position that the defensive end takes.

Jefferson B1

Jefferson takes the exchange and begins to dip the play to the inside. It’s at this point below where I think there are several ways to read and react to this play.

Jefferson B2

The elite athlete with great instincts to take risks that coaches at first find themselves on the sidelines screaming “No, no, no. . .yes, yes, YES!!!” is going to anticipate this opening with the yellow arrow before the snap or early after the play begins. He’ll also have the speed and agility to create a lane to work around the tight end and burst into the secondary for a long gain. This is a rarity even among terrific prospects because on the surface it looks like the decision of a really bad player. However the greats often break fundamental rules and get away with it due to special athleticism or anticipation.

The most common decision is the pink arrow to left end. This is where most top athletes with risk-taking, corner store tendencies will try to bounce a run once they work to left guard and don’t see a crease. This is the decision they have to curb when they reach the NFL because the percent chance they break it is much lower than the success rate in college football.

It’s the blue line that is the most sensible, conservative choice. Find the soft spot in the line, lower the pads, and bull through it. Keep the offense on schedule, don’t risk the loss of yardage, and you might possibly break through the line for a big play. In other words, let the defense make the mistake rather than you making the mistake.

Jefferson B3

This is exactly what Jefferson does. He approaches the soft spot, puts his head down, gets two yards untouched, and then bulls against the backs of his linemen for another four as they push the pile together for a total of six. It’s a mature play and the positive of this choice is that Jefferson can develop into the type of NFL back that will get what his line gives him. It makes him a potentially reliable option. A zone scheme running game will want a more creative running back in situations other than this play where the runner has more room to operate. Let’s look at a play or two that calls for more agility.

Failed Cutback

Here is a two-yard gain on a 1st-and-10 sweep to the strong side of an unbalanced line and twin strong side receivers with 0:58 in the first quarter. The guards pull to the strong side of this pistol formation run and Jefferson either bounces the run outside or, more frequently, works between the pulling guards.

 Jefferson C1

The two pulling guards opt to double team the penetration up the middle.
The two pulling guards opt to double team the penetration up the middle.

As Jefferson rounds the corner he has a couple of lanes to chose from. What I see from this play as it progresses is a back with the vision necessary to create, but he lacks the physical agility to execute what he sees happening before him. The runner spots the unblocked middle linebacker early in this play. He’s a player a runner behind two pulling guards is expected to see blocked by one of them, but due to penetration this won’t be the case. Jefferson opts to stretch the play a little more to the outside, but remains patient about his decision.

Jefferson C3

Jefferson has a few decisions: hit the hole with the middle linebacker, split the tight end and receiver’s blocks at the hash, or work outside the hash to the flat. The first open is a minimal gain at best without some creative thinking. The second option is inadvisable because the defender’s helmet is position in a place where there’s no way Jefferson will split these defenders and get  positive yards. The third option require great burst because that same defender on the tight end is in position to work through the block and tackle the runner trying to bounce it outside – and likely for a loss.

Jefferson C4

This screen shot above is a big reason why I believe Jefferson has the vision, but lacks the physical skills to execute like an elite runner. The Nevada runner opts to take another step or two outside to press the linebacker outside and based on his footwork above, cut behind his inside blocker and force that middle linebacker to overrun his angle. It’s a great idea, but it takes top-flight agility to execute. Matt Forte could do it. Jamaal Charles? No problem. LeSean McCoy could probably add a second move in succession that would increase AA battery sales that day in the Philadephia metropolitan area due to the insane amount of rewinding going on in Eagles fan households.

Unfortunately, Jefferson can’t. Where his feet are position in the shot above is where his momentum must stop and change direction with no wasted movement. If he can do it, he cuts behind the blocker to his left. If not, he skids into the oncoming defenders. The result below shows the skid in progress.

The yellow circle is where Jefferson was and where he needed to be to make this cutback.
The yellow circle is where Jefferson was and where he needed to be to make this cutback.

The outcome of the play is Jefferson getting hit head-on and knocked backwards before he can change direction. He had to gear down to make this cut back. This is where a jump cut or lateral plant and sharp change of direction makes a huge difference. There were other plays in this game where I’ve seen Jefferson break though a large hole at the line of scrimmage, see a defender making his way into the lane and the runner finding a much smaller secondary lane between two linemen and squeeze through to transform a four-yard play into an eight-yard play. Good vision, but the play didn’t require a sharp cutback.

This one did, and it’s representative of other plays where he misses a chance to execute a cut back or opt to barrel ahead and lower the pads for a minimal gain because he knows the cutback isn’t a part of his skill set. These aren’t the risky type of cutbacks, either. Jefferson has some real positives to his game, but his physical creativity doesn’t match what he sees.

As a straight-line runner with burst, decisiveness, and patience, he reminds me of the best of what I use to see from a back like Michael Bennett, the former Wisconsin star and Vikings starter. Jefferson lacks Bennett’s top-end speed, which is also why I have doubts the the Nevada back may struggle to find a place in the NFL.

Jefferson’s 2012 production makes it a good time for him to declare for the NFL Draft, because it’s unlikely he repeats those numbers as a senior. However, his lack of agility is an indicator that he may have benefited more from great team execution of a good scheme. Throw in his difficulties with pass protection and I’ll be surprised if he has smooth and immediate transition to an NFL lineup.

For more analysis of skill players like this post, download the 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio available April 1. Prepayment is available now. Better yet, if you’re a fantasy owner the 56-page Post-Draft Add-on comes with the 2013 RSP at no additional charge. Best, yet, 10 percent of every sale is donated to Darkness to Light to combat sexual abuse. You can purchase past editions of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio for just $9.95 apiece.

Walk on The Wildside: Notes From the RSP Bunker

0 Comments read Walk on the Wild Side
Can you guess a person's native state by his name? Apparently my wife could with Cordarrelle Patterson. Happy New Year (photo by Nashville Corps).
Can you guess a person’s native state by his name? Apparently my wife could with Cordarrelle Patterson. Happy New Year (photo by Nashville Corps).

It’s been a productive summer and fall at the RSP Film Room. I am closing in on finishing  play-by-play evaluations of 130 different skill position players as my winter vacation is ending and I thought I’d provide a few highlights of what I’ve seen this week. Most of this is lighthearted analysis in three short segments: My Readers Are Smart…But My Wife Might Be Smarter; Duke Johnson: Signs of a Waldman Family Apocalypse; and Big Nasty.

My Readers Are Smart…

I love when I write about one player and I get numerous questions about a different one. This happened with my analysis of Justin Hunter. The Tennessee wide receiver is a freakish talent, but potentially one of the riskiest players at the top of this draft class because of poor habits on both the practice field and on game day. My readers continued to ask me about his teammate Cordarrelle Patterson. I knew I’d eventually get to Patterson but I waited for my vacation because I figured I was going to see something fun and when I enjoy watching a player, I get so pumped up that I have trouble sleeping if I’m studying games at night. Patterson hasn’t disappointed:

[youtube=https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=hIZwwkdSjiY#t=72s]

His 44-yard run after the catch for a 58-yard gain was just one of many like it. In fact, I wonder if Patterson’s terrific instincts and vision in the open field are making Hunter try to do the same things – and fail miserably at it. Hunter is so gifted, I sometimes think he’s trying to mimic his teammate and is in denial that he can’t match Patterson.

But My Wife Might Be Smarter.

The best highlight of the night was probably what happened after my wife walked into the office, saw Patterson make this run, and asked me his name. When I told her, she said that with a name like that he’s probably from South Carolina.  Sure enough, Rock Hill, S.C.  

I had to test her further.

“How about Stepfret Williams?”

“Definitely, from the South.”

“Well yeah, but what state?”

“Probably the South a lot of folks up North are scared about – rural Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana.”

Yep, Louisiana. If this were a game at a fair, we would have enough giant stuffed animals to start an E-Bay business if we weren’t banned from the theme park altogether.

Duke Johnson: Signs of a Waldman Family Paradox 

My wife went to school at UNC Chapel Hill.  According to her, I have to say the Chapel Hill part or else I’m not qualifying it correctly. A native North Carolinian is particular about their UNCs. When I’m feeling like getting a rise out of her I bring up the Tar Hell-Blue Devil rivalry and it’s the only time I get threats about divorce. [Editor’s Note: This was a complete Freudian slip on my part. It is “Tar Heel.” Unless of course, you’re a Dukie.]

“Alicia, what if one of our kids wants to go to Duke?”

“No kid of ours will ever go to Duke. Why are you even asking me such a stupid question?”

“Wait a minute, you mean to tell me that if one of our kids earned a scholarship to Duke, they couldn’t go?”

“Again, this is a dumb-ass question. Our kids will know that Duke is kidding itself when it says it’s the Harvard of the South. Who says that? Harvard is Harvard. Stop. It’s over. You haven’t gotten in. If you have to describe yourself on the back of another school then you know what’s really going on there.”

“So what if our kid earned a basketball scholarship to Duke?”

“Our kid will earn an academic scholarship and will be smart enough to realize that most Duke ball players wind up playing in Europe.”

“What if our kid chooses Duke because there is a specific program that few other schools of its quality offer?”

“Then you’re gonna have to move out and live in Durham with them in an apartment and you ain’t comin’ back home, that’s for sure.”

With lines drawn like these, it stands to reason that the only “Duke” that I can mention in the house without risking a night on the couch is the one who shares my wife’s maiden name and plays at my first university – Miami. Even so, when I invoke his name she gets a look on her face like I named a kid Hitler Rosenberg, or Hashtag Smith.   If you haven’t seen the freshman running back, check out these two touchdown runs against Boston College. You’ll be hearing a lot about this ACC Freshman of The Year soon enough.

[youtube=http://youtu.be/7VGs_szTbwo]

Johnson reminds me of that old East Carolina Johnson. Perhaps not as fast, but the new Miami version has even better balance.

Big Nasty

The tight end class might be the gem of the skill positions in the 2013 draft. Cincinnati Travis Kelce is one of many impressive prospects I’ve watched this year, including this weekend. He’s one of the best blockers I’ve seen at the position and because Cincinnati runs a pistol offense, Kelce plays the H-Back role to perfection. His dimensions are Gronkowski-like and he’s a big, aggressive, and nasty run blocker. He also has fluid athleticism and at 265 pounds, you don’t see a tight end move like this unless he has starter potential in the NFL.

[youtube=http://youtu.be/nBIK_P5c6c4]

I know the Washington Redskins have Fred Davis, but as I mentioned to my Football Outsiders cohorts this weekend, if Washington wants to find a player who can take over if Davis’ Achilles tear doesn’t recover sufficiently, or he opts to sue himself and represent both parties in a court of law, Kelce would be a fantastic fit for Robert Griffin. Then the “Shanaclan,” – as my buddy Bloom calls Mike and Kyle – can end the Niles Paul-tight end experiment and keep him as a receiver and kick return specialist.

Happy New Year!