In-depth film analysis of NFL Draft Prospects With a Fantasy Football Lens - by Matt Waldman ©2025
Throughout the 2011 college football season I will be providing initial impressions of prospects based on my research for the 2012 Rookie Scouting Portfolio. Here are three backs you’ll be hearing about this winter. Continue reading
I have a lot of new readers-followers in recent months (thank you) who have asked me about the Rookie Scouting Portfolio.
I’m a pretty transparent person. My goal is to make the Rookie Scouting Portfolio my full-time pursuit. This is different than a full-time job.
The RSP is already a full-time job. So is my full-time job as a magazine writer. There’s also my part-time job as a staff writer for Footballguys.com.
One of my goals with this blog is to spread the word about the RSP. I have to do this because as the letter at the end of this post states: I’m your secret weapon.
The Rookie Scouting Portfolio is an annual publication devoted to the evaluation of draft prospects at the skill positions. It’s a 120-150 page analysis:
In addition to this complete analysis of 150-200 skill players ( quarterbacks, running backs, wide receivers, and tight ends), the Rookie Scouting Portfolio provides something that few, if any rookie guides do: I show my work.
Most of my readers are satisfied with the 120-150 page guide, attached to the Rookie Scouting Portfolio is an enormous appendix that contains all of the research, analysis, and breakdown of the grading process that I use to arrive at my takes on players:
Essentially, the Rookie Scouting Portfolio’s appendix provides you an additional 500-700 pages of research material that will satisfy even the most hardcore football fan. My most hardcore readers compare it to a research textbook that helps them learn more about the game, gain an even greater understanding of my takes, and even arrive at their own takes separate from what I offer.
Here is what a new customer told me this week about the 2011 Rookie Scouting Portfolio:
The RSP looks awesome, as I have started reading it on the iPad this evening. The amount of work that goes into it is OBVIOUS. One thing I will say, and please understand this is the highest compliment I can pay you:
Part of the problem you will always have with spreading the word is that guys in fantasy leagues that read your work are going to look at it as their “secret weapon,” and they’re not willing to give it up as one of their better resources. I have been playing fantasy sports since 1987 and when teams find premium, quality stuff they look at it as an advantage that they can use to dominate.
Obviously, it’s a huge compliment that you’ve produced such a wonderful resource…Fantasyleaguers are always willing to pass along something that’s sub par (or worse). The good stuff…they keep that under their hats.
Being iPad-friendly, it can go anywhere with you. I use a simple app that costs 99 cents called Goodreader and it allows you to search the whole .PDF for keywords and allows you to jump around as well. It really makes your large document very reader friendly.
Calling your product “premium,” badly undersells it. Not only do you share your own thoughts, but you also show your work, thus giving the reader the ability to process what they’re watching in a way they never have. It’s a football textbook and it’s 10 bucks.
Seeing how you interact with others was one of the reasons I bought today. There are some folks…who act as if they invented the game of football and I honestly can’t believe the way they talk to potential customers that they expect to sell anything…
Don’t ever change Matt. It’s obvious you get it. Keep doing what you’re doing and keep being as civil as you have to others. If I’ve noticed, you better believe others have and hopefully more rewards will come your way.
-Ray Calder
The following post is the transcript of an on-air editorial I presented on The Audible Roundtable during Week 11 of the 2010 football season. The opinions herein do not reflect those of my Audible co-hosts Cecil Lammey and Sigmund Bloom our our sponsor Footballguys.com. The Terry Tate Office Linebacker Undergoes Sensitivity Training segment was not broadcast in the original segment (but you know you want to see it again).
[Author’s Note]: Two days after this segment, the University of Illinois and Northwestern came to their senses after enormous media exposure in the days preceding game at Wrigley Field to implement a stopgap safety measure Continue reading
Twitter is a great place to get camp updates but they come so fast and furious, I thought I’d pick a few about rookies from various beat writers and provide my takes on these quick reports.
Blaine Gabbert: @Taniaganguli‘ s piece on Blaine Gabbert’s defense of David Garrard provide a glimpse of the maturity and perspective that the beat writers have observed from the rookie thus far. The article also summarizes the speed and arm that has impressed Gene Frennette enough to say that Gabbert has the best arm of any passer he’s seen in Jacksonville.
My Take: I still think Gabbert will be the best prospect in this class. I think the criticisms of the spread offense and his reactions to pressure in the pocket are overdone. Matt Ryan and Aaron Rodgers had issues with how to handle pressure in the pocket. But much like Rodgers, and unlike Ryan, Gabbert has the athleticism to make plays on the move that will serve him well as a pro. He’s capable of franchise-caliber throws and he’s already shown a little of that in camp. I hope the Jaguars sit him for a year. Of course, I hope that for most rookie quarterbacks.
Ryan Mathews: @ffootball tweeted a link to an AP piece on Mathews’ first week of camp. Despite Mathews failing a conditioning test, Norv Turner and RB coach Ollie Wilson are confident in their second-year runner breaking out in 2011. Even Mike Tolbert feels he and Mathews complement each other and present a formidable tandem for opposing defenses.
My Take: I came away from the article with no discernible answer about what happened with the conditioning test. Was it the toe or the lack of conditioning that was the reason for Mathews failing the conditioning test? Despite this nagging question, Norv Turner’s high expectations seem in line with the notion that Mathews will have first crack at the feature back role and he’ll need to really blow it in order for Mike Tolbert to take over.
Of course frame of reference is everything with the media. If you listen to some NFL analysts/reporters who have already been down on Mathews they have proclaimed him a bust. I fall on the other side of the fence – but I’ve stated my view last month.
Zach Miller: @Greg Cosell tweets, ” Z. Miller a surprise to SEA. Personnel dictates a lot of 2 TE packages w/Carlson. Run game foundation. Need to manipulate + manage Jackson.”
My Take: Tom Cable, Robert Gallery, and Zach Miller all in Seattle this year. No coincidence, whatsoever. I’m thinking Marshawn Lynch will have enough of the 2010 Raiders running game going for him that he should have more success in 2012. Cable is regarded as a heck of a line coach and I believe it after what he did to open gargantuan holes for Darren McFadden last year. Gallery and Miller should figure prominently in at least giving Lynch a crease. In Lynch’s case, that’s all he really needs. In contrast to his career thus far, those creases will probably look like craters.
Osi Umenyiora: @jamisonhensley reports, ” Source tells Mike Preston: Several of the #Ravens top officials have urged general manager Ozzie Newsome to make the deal for Umenyiora.”
@ChrisWesseling: #Giants have reportedly dropping the Umenyiora asking price to a 2nd-rounder. #Ravens, #Patriots among 5 teams in hunt: http://bit.ly/oJrabn
My Take: Baltimore or New England are absolutely great places for the Giants DE to land. These are veteran locker rooms that will keep Umenyiora from acting out to the detriment of the team. Even if Umenyiora plays a limited role as a third-down pass rusher opposite Terrell Suggs, the Ravens defense could be dangerous enough to possibly weather Joe Flacco’s ups and downs in big games (Okay, I won’t go that far). I don’t need to tell you how this helps the Patriots.
Eddie Royal: These three tweets tell a bit of an interesting story…
In this part of my conversation with Sigmund Bloom, Footballguys senior staff writer and Draftguys co-founder, we discuss NFL trends, the appeal of the NFL Draft, and the value of the Game Recaps he does at Footballguys.com.
Waldman: Tell me about the more profound things you’ve learned about the game on the field because of your work as a fantasy football writer/analyst?
Bloom: I think that one of the things that is really fun to watch and has a massive impact on fantasy football is the natural intelligence of the game that evolves during a game. This happens when you have smart quarterbacks and smart coordinators. It’s the classic idea that if something is working then why go away from it? The game tells you which way to go. The game will guide smart coaches and quarterbacks to exploit something and continue to exploit it until the other team adjusts. Finding players who are smart enough and talented enough to do it is a big part of it. Seeing how in the course of the game that the first drive can tell you whether it’s going to be a big day for a player and it could be a player who hasn’t done much coming into the game, but because what the team knew about its opposition heading into the week it was going to be a big day. We try to perfect our ability to anticipate that on a weekly basis. Again that is where a lot of success in fantasy football comes from in-season.
Waldman: So tell me about some of the players or coaches that you see that are good at spotting a weakness and exploiting it until they are stopped.
Bloom: Of course Continue reading
Twitter is a great place to get camp updates but they come so fast and furious, I thought I’d pick a few about rookies from various beat writers and provide my takes on these quick reports.
Packers WR Randall Cobb
Mike Vandermause of the Green Bay Press Gazette reports that Packers rookie receiver Randall Cobb put on a clinic Monday night, making grabs over the middle, in traffic, and flashing excellent burst and skill after the catch. According to Vandermause, Cobb is learning all of the wide receiver positions.
My Take: Cobb is one of my favorite players in this rookie class. He reminds me of Santonio Holmes because Continue reading
Ask Sigmund Bloom who he became a football writer and draft analyst and he’ll tell you that its because he’s a compulsive talker, narcissist, and egomaniac and he found and audience that accepted it. As his colleague at Footballguys.com I can assure you that he’s not a narcissist or an egomaniac. However if you heard last week’s Audible Roundable podcast, you witnessed an impressive feat of compulsive talking when Bloom ran down just about every move made in a free agency period that has been slammed with moves in a compacted period of time. Bloom might be best known as a senior staff writer and podcast host at Footballguys.com but he is also a co-founder of Draftguys.com, a site that was one of the pioneers of using the Internet to broadcast video analysis of players they filmed at all-star practices. Personally, I think the “Bloom 100,” is one of the best quick reference, fantasy-friendly rankings of draftable rookie prospects available. Bloom and I spent an hour discussing when he got the football bug, his love for the machinations of the game, and the role of stats in fantasy analysis.
Waldman: When did you catch the football bug?
Bloom: I was born the year the Steelers won their first Super Bowl. I can remember being inundated with Steelers football as much as anything I can remember from my childhood. The first really big moment for me as a football fan was John Riggins run in the Super Bowl versus Miami. It was a disappointing year as Steelers fan as they got knocked out by the Chargers and I had high hopes for them. But I really grew to love the Smurfs and Riggins and everything about that team. That was a totally electrifying moment. I think when I look back on my life as an NFL fan it was after that when I was totally hooked.
Waldman: I remember that season and Riggins play fondly as well. He had been in the NFL for a while and that year was a great way to wind down his career. I remember in Jim Brown’s autobiography how much respect the all-time great had for Riggins as a running back.
Bloom: On a personal note, any of the true individuals that have been the best at what they do in the NFL are guys like I admire: Riggins, Joe Namath, and other guys who are clearly march to the beat of their own drummer. Another guy we recently talked about before we began this interview was Continue reading
Thursday nights, I join my fellow Footballguys.com staffers the fantastic Cecil Lammey and the incredible Sigmund Bloom on The Audible Roundtable at 10pm-12am EST on Blog Talk Radio. We talk about the week in football, share fantasy football strategies, and answer listener questions.
If you aren’t aware, Lammey and Bloom built this show into one of the most popular – if not the most popular – fantasy sports show on iTunes. Bloom suggested I post the written version of my segment “Take a Walk on the Wild Side.” I hope you enjoy as much as he did.
Welcome back to Take a Walk on the Wildside, otherwise known as the place where I get free license to pick on Cecil Lammey and not get my ass kicked.
Not that I’m a scrawny guy. I’ve got the slight height and reach advantage on Big Mex and depending on what Cec is doing, conditioning might be a push.
However, Lammey has the nut-job factor. You know, like Curly in the Three Stooges episode where he’s the boxer whose lights stay on despite all vestiges of rationality leaving the house (seven-minute mark) whenever he hears Pop Goes The Weasel.
No officers, I was just standing there listening to Wildman pop off about Mikel Leshoure running like he was a scat back and this red light washed over me. Next thing I knew, Wildman was on the floor unconscious, Bloom was stuck in the fireplace flue, and you guys were on top of me. That mace is still stinging my eyes! Why am I still wearing these bracelets???
Cecil is the kind of guy I’d much rather have on my side – unless I have 20 yards, his back to me, and a shotgun loaded with large game tranquilizer.
I thought it was appropriate to relate the stupidity of crossing someone like Cecil Lammey because with free agency underway, I’d to list the transactional equivalents of NFL teams playing Pop Goes The Weasel to a stadium filled with Curly Howards and Cecil Lammeys. Continue reading
If you thought ESPN analyst Matt Williamson’s path to becoming a paid evaluator of talent was unusual, consider NFL Draft Scout.com senior analyst Chad Reuter. The Wisconsin native lacks a football background, but he managed to transform a hobby into a job because of his tremendous analytical skills, sincere passion for the game, and a veteran scout’s work ethic. In this multi-part conversation, Reuter and I spent a couple of hours discussing a variety of topics related to player evaluation.
In Part I of this conversation, Chad and I discuss why he enjoys studying offensive line play, evaluating technique versus results, and balancing these two behaviors with the craft of projecting a player’s future in the NFL. In Part II we covered Reuter’s path to studying football as a full-time job, a defensive position that is difficult to evaluate, and why “instincts” and “intangibles” may not be innate after all. In this segment, Chad and I discuss sabermetrics and football, the mathematical logic of drafting a quarterback in the first round, and the importance of tiers when building a draftboard.
Waldman: There’s a growing camp of sabermetricians in football as well as the football media. While many understand why Bill Belicheck might use data to learn the odds strategic decisions, there are others who believe football can never completely embrace the Moneyball route. It’s obvious that you are both fluent in statistics and the craft of film evaluation. What’s your take on these two camps?
Reuter: I think data analysis is little more than a study of history. And I think you have to be cognizant of history when you are evaluating players — not just on the statistical side, but grouping characteristics with guys such as similarities in styles, size, etc.
But you can’t be a slave to it. Continue reading
Due to the lockout, 2011 could be more difficult than usual for undrafted free agents trying to make it in the NFL. Yet, there will be players with the talent, the skill, and the work ethic to enter a camp and make the most of their limited opportunities. This week, I’m profiling offensive skill players who I believe have the ability to develop into quality professionals if they have been training hard enough in this crazy offseason to hit the ground running. Profiles of these players are excerpts from my publication, the 2011 Rookie Scouting Portfolio, available at Footballguys.com
Will Yeatman, Maryland (6-6, 273): In some respects Will Yeatman reminds me of the Bears’ Kellen Davis and potentially Rob Gronkowski. All three are big, strong tight ends with fluid athleticism and soft hands. Davis has progressed enough in the Bears offense that there are rumors this offseason that starter Ben Olsen could be dealt away.
Yeatman is a former lacrosse player with quick feet. He makes fast turns as a route runner and he has enough strength to carry a defender on his back for extra yards. He’ll also lower his pads into contact and its this type of agility and flexibility for his size that makes him promising. He catches the ball away from his body and he’s a decisive player who seems comfortable on the field. He finds open seams very well as a receiver and he has a skill for creating space against single coverage.
Yeatman has limited game experience because Continue reading