Posts tagged Matt Waldman

NFL Closeup: WR Jordy Nelson vs. Bump and Run

Does Jordy Nelson look "undersized" to you? This was one of the worst answers of the contest. Note to contestant: I'm laughing with you buddy, not at you. Plus, you can laugh at the guy that gave Mohamed Sanu as an answer. Photo by Elvis Kennedy.
Does Jordy Nelson look “undersized” to you? Photo by Elvis Kennedy.

I would love to take 20 receivers, place them in four groups of five players based on height and weight range, dress them in uniforms that cover their skin head to toe, and have them scrimmage with cornerbacks on tape. While they’re playing, I’d give the audience the names of the players in each group, and have them guess the players’ identities based on what they saw (and didn’t see).  If I could pull this off, I believe Jordy Nelson would be the player with the most incorrect guesses of his identity. Big, physical, and comfortable making big catches against tight coverage, Jordy Nelson is a modern-day Michael Irvin minus the swagger and the melanin. 

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The Nelson-Aaron Rodgers combo is among the best in football at the back-shoulder fade. One of the reasons this play remains so effective for the Packers’ duo is that Nelson is equally strong at earning separation against press coverage and winning 50/50 balls in the vertical game. Defenders cannot assume every deep pass is a back-shoulder play.

Here’s Nelson working with journeyman quarterback Scott Tolzein against second-year cornerback Brandon Boykin in press coverage. Nelson has a significant size advantage, but Boykin is pound-for-pound one of the stronger and more explosive players for his size. Boykin is a feisty corner who can mix it up with a receiver, out-leap his competition, and if he gets his hands on the ball, make like a top-tier return specialist. Boykin has a chance to develop into a player along the lines of Brent Grimes.

The route begins with an outside release on Boykin. For the next 10-12 frames, pay attention to Nelson’s inside arm. How he uses it to work through contact, but also to set up position by maintaining intermittent contact with Boykin. Although Michael Irvin was often accused of pushing off defenders – and sometimes he did – a good wide receiver knows how to use his arms to “frame” space without pushing the opponent.

NelsonA1

Nelson’s inside arm is cocked at an angle where he’ll soon turn his shoulder away from Boykin’s initial contact. The angle of Nelson’s arm and his shoulder turn is to prevent Boykin from getting his hands into Nelson’s chest. If Boykin gets into Nelson’s body the contact could really slow the receiver or alter the direction of the route.

NelsonA2

As Nelson works towards the numbers, he raises his forearm to meet Boykin’s contact and maintain a barrier between his body and Boykin’s hands. This is a technique used in several press coverage drills for receivers. I see it taught year after year at the Senior Bowl.

NelsonA4

As Nelson raises the arm to meet Boykin’s contact, the receiver then extends his arm into Boykin’s chest. This requires a size, strength, leverage advantage that Nelson possesses against most cornerbacks.

NelsonA5

Note the change in Boykin’s body lean once Nelson locks his arm out and into the corner’s back shoulder. Boykin is fully upright and almost leaning backwards, which slows the defender’s stride, throws off his balance, and prevents further contact. It also sets the stage for Nelson to maintain this horizontal space with the defender, which will be more important for a sideline fade than vertical separation.

NelsonA6

The arm extension earns Nelson a couple of feet outside Boykin with a lot of room to slide towards the boundary if needed. Some routes require a receiver to bet his back to the defender and control the vertical space. This route is all about the room to roam side-to-side. Nelson is patient about setting up this separation because he knows that he needs that space between himself and the boundary during the final phase of the route. Giving it up too early will make his quarterback’s throw more difficult and give Nelson less room to operate and the advantage to Boykin, who could then suffocate Nelson to the sideline – something Darrelle Revis is excellent at doing to receivers.

NelsonA7

As Nelson and Boykin look for the target, watch how the receiver renews contact with Boykin. This serves two purposes. First, it allows Nelson to define the space between him and Boykin. It also gives Boykin a false sense of security that he’s still in good position against Nelson while looking for the ball.

NelsonA8

Nelson slips his inside arm under Boykin’s outside arm, bracing the defender’s ribs as they run down field. I don’t know if Nelson meant to place his arm in this exact location or if placing his arm on Boykin’s arm or shoulder would have been just as acceptable. It’s a question I would love to ask Nelson. If it’s intentional, I would imagine it gives Nelson more leverage to prevent Boykin from pushing the receiver tight to the boundary. If Nelson had his arm on Boykin’s arm, the corner could extend his arm and force Nelson outside with greater ease. At the same time, I have to think that Boykin could clamp his arm to his side and prevent Nelson from pulling his arm free without a struggle.

NelsonA9

Nelson removes his arm as the ball draws near and begins to uses some of that horizontal space. Note in the next photo that Nelson doesn’t use all of this space, because he knows once he makes the initial catch he’ll need room to shield the defender from the ball and get both feet in bounds.

NelsonA10

Nelson is first to get his arms extended and he displays good technique with his fingers skyward, palms out, and elbows close enough so his hands will converge on the football.

NelsonA11

Nelson high-points the ball inches above Boykin’s reach. The arrow shows where Nelson will move his arms to prevent the cornerback from swatting the ball free. This is such a minor detail, but the awareness pull the ball backwards and then bring it towards his body is why Nelson is one of the best deep threats in the game.

NelsonA12

As Boykin swats at air, Nelson begins to turn his back to the defender so he can tuck the ball to his sideline and work up the sideline.

NelsonA13

Look below and note that both hands remain on the ball even at belt level until Nelson can tuck the ball to one side.

NelsonA14

Both feet are in bounds, the ball is tucked, and his back is to both defenders.

NelsonA15

Although Nelson doesn’t stay inside the boundary, it’s a fine play that puts Green Bay in the red zone. Say what you will about a physical mismatch, but there are dozens of NFL receivers Boykin would have beaten in this situation despite giving up height, strength, and speed. Nelson’s ability to earn separation early, bait Boykin in the middle of the route, renew separation late, and make small adjustments to maintain separation during the reception is what makes this former Kansas State starter with 4.55-speed one of the better deep threats in football.

For more analysis of offensive skill players like this post, download the 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio available April 1. Prepayment is available now. Better yet, if you’re a fantasy owner the 56-page Post-Draft Add-on comes with the 2013 RSP at no additional charge. Best, yet, 10 percent of every sale is donated to Darkness to Light to combat sexual abuse. You can purchase past editions of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio for just $9.95 apiece.

Futures at Football Outsiders: UCLA RB Malcolm Jones

Malcolm Jones by Neon Tommy

Futures: Buy One, Get Three Free?

by Matt Waldman

“Fit” is a recurring theme in this year’s Futures. Talent plus fit can create a superstar. The stories about LaRoi Glover and John Randle’s career births are prominent examples. Drew Brees was a Pro Bowl performer in San Diego, but his fit with Sean Payton in New Orleans helped Brees -– and the team –- play at the highest level attainable.

But talent minus fit is a recipe for failure. Who’s to say that Brees’ career wouldn’t have washed out if he landed in Miami? Take one look at Nick Saban’s offensive proclivities and it’s not a stretch to say that Brees would have been a glorified game manager.

Because Saban and the Dolphins used Brees’ injury as a bargaining chip and failed, the Saints are now fortunate to have an innovative offense that uses Brees’ mobility to open passing lanes. Brees will now be forever known as one of the most dangerous vertical assassins in the game without ever having a star vertical threat like Randy Moss,Calvin Johnson, or even Isaac Bruce.

Fit is why we’ve been so elated and disappointed with Robert Griffinthe past two years. Washington’s coaching staff did a great job retrofitting Griffin’s skills to its existing offensive personnel last year. The result was a dangerous offense built on simple concepts that were hard to defend. A year later and an injury still on the mend, and we’re seeing the consequences of an imperfect fit.

Just last week I made the point that if Ray Rice was on Andy Reid’s incarnation of the Eagles the offense could keep rolling with minor adjustments, but it wouldn’t be the same in Baltimore if the Ravens stuck Brian Westbrook in its system. We sometimes think of players as cogs in a machine. Even if there’s truth to that notion, not all components have the same properties or fit the exact same way.

The safe method of finding talent that fits a team is to look in all the obvious places: starters at big-time programs; players with consistent production; and athletes with some combination of eye-popping height, weight, strength, and speed. Find enough of these characteristics in one player and the perceived risks to invest vast sums of money in him is lower than other prospects with a limited supply of these resume bullet points.

However, the greatest advantages often come with the most startling discoveries. In football, it’s often players who are exceptions to the rule. They can elevate a team’s standing.

Reads Listens Views 11/8/2013

Malcolm Jones by Neon Tommy
Looking for the next Bryce Brown draft surprise? Malcolm Jones is a candidate on that list. Learn more tomorrow in Futures at Football Outsiders. Photo by Neon Tommy.

Who is Malcolm Jones? Why is football culture related to prison culture? Why aren’t we alone in the universe? Is that whale shaking hands with that diver? Find out inside.

Alicia just got diagnosed with bronchitis today and she has a business trip scheduled for Monday. Other than some minor sinus issues, I’ve been fortunate not to get sick more than once every 4-5 years. When I do, I get whatever it is really bad. Even as a child, I was the last one in class to ever catch anything. Chicken pox? I was sent to numerous houses with kids with them so I’d catch them and get it over with. Not a thing for two months. Then three weeks after the last kid in our class got them, I finally did.

I can’t even remember the last time I was really sick – perhaps the flu 13 years ago? I don’t know. It is a good thing, but I feel it coming on so I’m making this week’s RLV a brief one.

Listens-Stefon Harris Quartet

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Thank You

I get great feedback from readers of the blog, the RSP publication, and the work I contribute to Footballguys and Football Outsiders. I also get a lot of questions about fantasy teams and I’m not able to answer as high of a percentage of these emails as I used to. Sometimes I admit I can be terse with the responses I give – hopefully those don’t come off as rude. Even so, I appreciate the understanding nature you have and I want to thank you for continuing to read my work and communicate with me even if I can’t always communicate back the way I’d like.

Football Reads

  • Tony Dorsett, Leonard Marshall, and Joe Delameilleure have CTE – I grew up watching these guys so it hits home for me. If you listen to one thing today, check out Delameilleure’s interview on ESPN in this link. Whether or not the NFL removes face masks from helmets is a good idea, it’s worth exploring. Lost teeth or dead brain cells? I’ll take the former, thank you.
  • Grantland’s Brian Phillips with his piece “Man Up” – Amen.
  • Former NFL Player on Bullying: I Was the Team ‘Wierdo’ on New York Jets – I’m a different bird by nature and I think I’ve always been identified as such by teammates in a variety of settings, but in a fun-loving way because I could handle the give and take involved. However, I never had to compete for a job and standing in an environment like my friend Ryan Riddle – a guy who only qualifies as weird if you count quiet, thoughtful, and able to communicate how he feels about deeper things. Riddle did a great job sharing common, everyday neurosis most people feel about even the smallest things and how they can be magnified in an environment like an NFL locker room.
  • Martin walked into a twisted world – I’m a Jason Whitlock fan. I don’t always agree with his views, but in this case I think makes a good point about the parallels between locker rooms and prison culture. If you didn’t know, the U.S. incarcerates a higher percentage of its citizens than any country in the world.
  • Zero Running Back and Anti-Fragile Rosters – I think Sean Siegele and I are on a similar wavelength about draft strategies here.

Listens

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Non-Football Reads

Views – See the rest of the 50 Most Perfectly Time Photos Ever

diver whale high five perfect timing

spear fishing perfect timing

A Prayer for Sammy Watkins

Watkins has the upside to lap the field of some fine receiver prospects when it comes to NFL potential. Photo by PDA.Photo.
Watkins has the upside to lap the field of some fine receiver prospects when it comes to NFL potential. Photo by PDA.Photo.

When I watch the Clemson receiver, I find myself in a mode of prayerful thought. I know it’s probably wrong to ask for something this selfish, but I want a player like Watkins on my team and if I have to resort to the good entity upstairs, well . . . that’s what crazy fans do, right?

Dear Lord,

Thank you for my health, my family, my job, and the strength and whatever wisdom I’ve gleaned to live each day. I don’t like to bother you with trivial things because I imagine you have far weightier concerns about what’s going on down here like all the wars we’re fighting, child slavery, famine, and corruption. Of course, this could all be some sort of divine machination like some philosophers believe and it’s all part of a grand plan.

If that’s the case I might just be wasting my time fretting to you about it. If they’re wrong, however, I’d like to make a miniscule request that, if it fits within the rhythm of the universe and doesn’t cause harm to anyone – perhaps with the exception of emotional damage to 49ers fans – I’m hoping you’ll make so:

Would you please have the Seattle Seahawks draft Sammy Watkins?

How tempting it is for me to make this a legitimate prayer. I find myself thinking it the more I watch Watkins – especially last night when I took in the Clemson-Florida State debacle. Devonta Freeman was impressive, Rashad Greene was scintillating, and Jameis Winston has been spectacular, but hands-down Watkins is the best wide receiver prospect in this draft class if he comes out.

I know some of you Pac-10 wonks will shout the refrain of Marqise Lee. You already have several times and I know there’s no medicine for your SoCal Tourette Syndrome. I agree that Lee is a good one But if Watkins is alongside Lee, I’m taking the Clemson Tiger in every scenario.

Catch Radius-Hands

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This is a simple concept – a short cross – but the execution is far more demanding thanks to Tajh Boyd’s errant throw and Watkins’ underrated catch. A throw that’s low and away while on the run is one of the more difficult adjustments to make on a target. Watkins makes it look routine. Watch enough NFL games and this is the type of play that the average veteran in a starting lineup makes.

Then look at the presence of mind to get the pads downhill and make a beeline for the first down marker. Although we’ve seen Watkins make his share of defenders miss, he’s far more consistent at knowing when to dispense with the bells and whistles of agility and handle the primary job of earning the first down.

Here’s another underrated demonstration of catch radius on a slant for a touchdown – a play where a majority of NFL players in this situation drop the ball. Even top prospects entering the league drop this pass and get fans questioning whether the player really is all that good. Then, when they make the play the next week-month-year fans promptly forget that the capability was there all long. Watkins will likely be one of those players.

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Once again, an errant throw from Boyd (see a pattern) and Watkins has to lean the opposite direction of his break to extend his arms for the ball, make the catch, and hit the ground after contact. The consistent technique to extend his arms and catch the ball with his hands earns Watkins second chances in situations like the one above.

Route Depth and Boundary Awareness

These are two things that Watkins – once he gets acclimated to the advanced level of the NFL game – will make him a primary receiver for an offense. Watch this third-down play and note how he breaks to the quarterback, maintains good route depth, and makes the catch with great technique despite a defender draped on his back.

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Moreover, look at Watkins drag his feet. The receiver’s ability to integrate all of these skills into one play is an indication that Watkins has ingrained many of these techniques into his game with hard work. This is advanced receiving. Watkins is a receiver I expect to have a productive rookie year.

Physicality

This block is hard to see and it’s a play that catches the cornerback by surprise. Still, I love Watkins’ hustle.

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It’s a great punch with good location and away from the flow of the play. It’s one of several small indications that I’ve shown that Watkins not only likes to play the game he likes to work at it. Combine that with great athleticism and natural gifts and just imagine the versatility the Seahawks would have with Percy Harvin, Golden Tate, and Sammy Watkins.

It probably won’t happen, but a man can hope, right? What I do know is that the team that gets Watkins will have some major prayers answered.

For analysis of skill players in this year’s draft class, download the 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio.The 2014 RSP will available April 1 and if you pre-order before February 10, you get a 10 percent discount. Better yet, if you’re a fantasy owner the 56-page Post-Draft Add-on comes with the 2012 – 2014 RSPs at no additional charge and available for download within a week after the NFL Draft. Best, yet, 10 percent of every sale is donated to Darkness to Light to combat sexual abuse. You can purchase past editions of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio for just $9.95 apiece.

Futures at Football Outsiders: Baylor RB Lache Seastrunk

This shot begins one of my favorite runs of the year, painted courtesy of Baylor's Lache Seastrunk.
This shot begins one of my favorite runs of the year, painted courtesy of Baylor’s Lache Seastrunk.

Futures: Baylor RB Lache Seastrunk

by Matt Waldman

There’s no position I enjoy watching more than running back. One of the reasons I love studying the position is that relative to other roles on the field, there’s a tremendous amount of diversity among players that can excel at the job.

No other position in football has such a wide range of acceptable physical dimensions. There was a time when Brandon Jacobs weighed 87 pounds more than Warrick Dunn. Both players sport multiple 1000-yard seasons. Adrian Peterson is almost a half-foot taller than Frank Gore, but they are about same weight and inspire similar frustration among opposing defenders.

Watch Peterson, Herschel Walker, and Bo Jackson and they seem chiseled from ebony. By comparison, Jerome Bettis and Craig “Ironhead: Heyward were amorphous lumps of clay. None were a joy to tackle.

Cleveland’s 6-foot-2, 232-pound fullback Jim Brown and Chicago’s 5-foot-10, 200-pound Walter Payton are far apart on the dimension spectrum of running backs, but is there any separation between them when it came to dying hard on every play? For that matter, is there anyone else even close?

Read the rest at Football Outsiders

NFL Closeup: Safety T.J. Ward’s Line of Scrimmage High Wire Act

T.J. Ward's tackle of Jamaal Charles for a loss last Sunday is what makes football beautiful, predatory, and savage. Photo by BGSU86
T.J. Ward’s tackle of Jamaal Charles for a loss last Sunday is what makes football beautiful, predatory, and savage. Photo by BGSU86

I love great running back play and this season, Jamaal Charles’ game qualifies. Charles and LeSean McCoy are two of the most elusive backs in the NFL who can also get the tough yards. Their skill at the sharp cut or layering moves upon moves in succession from these backs at the edge of the line of scrimmage or in the open field and it’s the beginning of the end a failed series for a defense.

One false move by the defender and whiff, off to the races. I may imagine that a Charles keeps defenders up at night, the motivation might be excitement more than fear. You have to be confident to play defense in the NFL – especially in today’s league where the rules are stacked against them.

Although fantasy football has influenced my tendencies to watch football from an offensive perspective, my personal DNA makeup is rooted more in defense when you examine the teams I’ve gravitated to as a fan.

  • Excellent press corner play
  • Physical and/or rangy safeties
  • Freakish edge rushers
  • Physical ground game

This describes much about the 1980s Cleveland Browns, the Jeff Fisher Tennessee Titans at the turn of the century, and Pete Carroll’s Seattle Seahawks. Throw in my love for the Lester Hayes-Mike Haynes corner combo in Oakland and you see what I’m saying.

But what comes to mind when I think of what I love about defense is watching a safety at the line of scrimmage. It’s an act of blatant, white-knuckled aggression and risk that turns the tide of a series or game one way or the other. Watching Browns safety T.J. Ward crowd the line of scrimmage to run blitz Jamal Charles at the edge is one of those high wire acts that is football at its most predatory, savage, and beautiful.

T.J. Ward A1

Ward is the safety at the right hash on this run designed for Charles to follow his fullback to the edge. Because it’s a zone play with double teams to the linebacker from the inside, Charles as multiple options and for a runner of his quickness and agility he’s at the apex of the ball carrier food chain when it comes to amazing cutbacks.

Ward is blitzing on this play and his job has more complexity than simply “tackle the runner.” That’s the best-case goal. However, the contingency plan if this doesn’t happen is to funnel Charles inside where there’s enough help to limit the Chiefs’ runner. With a runner like Charles who is the NFL’s Road Runner this is no guarantee for this week’s Wiley E. Coyotes from northeast Ohio to stop him.

T.J. Ward A2

Football is a game of angles and defenders know this better than anyone. Ward has to approach the line of scrimmage fast enough to set a position that forces Charles inside and earns the safety a shot to make the tackle. His potential obstacles to his spot are linemen, fullbacks, and the most slippery darter of a ball carrier in the NFL. To help Ward get in position, the Browns hope it’s edge defender can get penetration into the backfield and occupy or beat the fullback.

However, Ward still has to handle the tight end. This requires the speed, vision, and change of direction of a running back, but some of the same body control and technique of a defensive end rushing the edge on a pass play.

T.J. Ward A3

See Ward bending his hips and torso to corner the tight end at the line of scrimmage? The orange line is the path he ultimately takes to meet Charles in the backfield, but the outside loop is to prevent the runner from having this two-way go (red arrows) that is currently available at this stage of the play. If Ward slips or misses, Charles is outside the defense and in the flat, breaking ankles of Wards’ teammates.

T.J. Ward A4

Here’s that defensive end-like bend. He’s cornering like a motorcyle on a track and this not only gets Ward under the tight end’s interference, but also eliminates Charles’ option to bounce outside. Now, Ward has to explode with a 90-degree turn and hit through Charle’s legs and wrap tight. No easy task.

T.J. Ward A5

Charles still has a chance to work inside his fullback and dip to the middle of the line where the double teams have gotten enough traction for a positive gain, and there are enough Chiefs inside the right tackle that this could be a much bigger run than it looks.  Note Ward’s arm approaching Charles over the knee. The higher a defender can grab a ball carrier, the more second-effort chances he has to wrap the player if he doesn’t get a secure hold initially. It’s a lot like a wide receiver extending his arms to attack a target at the earliest window – it affords more opportunities to make the play.

T.J. Ward A6

Ward slides from Charles’ knee to the feet and ankles to drop Charles for a short loss. While there’s a lot of help from his teammates, the individual athleticism and awareness of angles is as compelling as an acrobatic catch or open field run.

For analysis of offensive skill players like this post, download the 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio available April 1. Prepayment is available now. Better yet, if you’re a fantasy owner the 56-page Post-Draft Add-on comes with the 2013 RSP at no additional charge. Best, yet, 10 percent of every sale is donated to Darkness to Light to combat sexual abuse. You can purchase past editions of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio for just $9.95 apiece.

Reads Listens Views 11/1/2013

Thank you for reading. If you are new to the blog, on Fridays I post links to content (football and otherwise) that I’ve read in recent weeks. You may not like everything I share, but you’ll like something. This week: Lions, Tigers, and Bears Living together; Black Sabbath; Unlocking The Truth; The Civil Wars; and cute and sadistic wildlife.

Listens – Unlocking The Truth

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Do you fellas . . .

Thanks

Busy week at the RSP Blog and everywhere else I’m writing. Thank you for reading. If you are new to the blog, on Fridays I post links to content (football and otherwise) that I’ve read in recent weeks. You may not like everything I share, but you’ll like something.

What to support this blog? Follow follow it and get email notices when I post something new. Better yet, feed your football knowledge and fantasy acumen and download the Rookie Scouting Portfolio. It’s a win-win-win. You get the most comprehensive analysis of rookie skill talent available from the guy who shows you why Russell Wilson was underrated, how Kenbrell Thompkins could make a team as an undrafted free agent, and why you shouldn’t have worried about Keenan Allen’s 40-time. In its eighth year of publication, 10 percent of each sale is donated to Darkness to Light, a charity created to prevent sexual abuse. Plus the more you support the RSP, the more I can provide long-term to this blog and improve what is already the most unbelievably detailed-insightful work on rookies prior to the draft that’s out there.

Thanks to everyone who is a regular reader, visitor, and listener of the content I’m providing on football. It’s a labor, but I enjoy it.

Coming Soon at the RSP Blog

  • Futures At Football Outsiders: Bayor RB Lache Seastrunk.
  • More analysis on Robert Griffin – What he’s doing well, where he can improve, and my thoughts on his future development.
  • NFL Closeup: Safety T.J. Ward’s High Wire Act vs. Jamaal Charles.

Views: Marshawn Lynch E:60 Profile

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Football Reads/Listens

  • Trent Richardson and the Colts’ Offense – Ben Muth delivers insightful analysis about the relationship between runner-offensive line, using Richardson as the portrait.
  • Clutch Encounters – Scott Kacsmar’s quality column at Football Outsiders. This week he talks about Matt Stafford among the other fine moments from Week 8.
  • On The Couch Podcast – Insightful stuff from Scott Pianowski this week. Sigmund Bloom fosters a great environment for a more open discussion that goes deeper than normal fare.
  • Misery Football Theater – The Gut Check profiles the Jason Campbell-Josh Gordon on-field relationship in Cleveland and looks at C.J. Anderson’s carries last weeks.

Listens

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Fun version of an seminal 1980s pop tune.

Non-Football Reads

Listens

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Is it just me or does a young Ozzy Osborne resemble the kid who played Danny in Kubrick’s version of The Shining? Sounds a lot like him, too – C’mon Ozzy, screech “Redrum! Redrum! Redrum!” a few times for us. Great tune.

Futures: UNC TE Eric Ebron

UNC TE Eric Ebron fits in a comparison spectrum with Vernon Davis as the pinnacle.  Photo by The Bay Area Bias.
UNC TE Eric Ebron fits in a comparison spectrum with Vernon Davis as the pinnacle. Photo by The Bay Area Bias.

Futures: UNC TE Eric Ebron

by Matt Waldman

Eric Ebron is the hot name among the NFL Draft media, but the University of North Carolina tight end isn’t some flash fire that ignited at Chapel Hill in mid-October. The Tar Heel has been ablaze for two seasons –- make it three if you count a searing 20.7 yards per catch average on 10 receptions as a freshman. Tyler Eifert, many a draftnik’s top tight end prospect in 2013’s class, is a moderate bush fire by comparison.

NFL.com’s Bucky Brooks wrote about Ebron this week. He invokedJimmy Graham and Antonio Gates as impact players who Ebron could rival one day if the junior declares for the 2014 NFL Draft. There’s a lot of heft to that statement.

Brooks displayed the restraint not to compare Ebron’s skills directly to Graham and Gates. Such a comparison would be like linking Steve Wonder to Neil Young — both are fine singer-songwriters with instrumental talents, but their styles are too disparate for a fine comparison.

Player comparisons are a problematic exercise. The intent is to provide a functional short hand. Do it well and the comparison can evoke layers of nuanced analysis of physical build, strengths, weaknesses, playing style, and schematic fit. Do it poorly and the end result can be one-dimensional. Worse, display a lack of sophisticated study and you can even have unintentional racial overtones.

I believe a better way to create player comparisons is to add more dimensions to the exercise. It’s far from a perfect method, but it does help me evoke multiple images of players that illustrate layers of analysis you don’t get with just one player.

Read the rest at Football Outsiders

Remember The Name: C.J. Anderson

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In a season where quality running back production has been as scarce as ever, it’s vital to consider talent that has lurked behind the scenes. Broncos rookie C.J. Anderson is that kind of player. The former backup at Cal is getting a shot with Denver’s active roster this weekend ahead of Ronnie Hillman, who won’t dress after fumbling the ball inside the Indianapolis five last weekend.

It’s unknown whether Anderson will get a chance to see playing time. And I can’t tell you if the rookie will look as good as he did in the preseason or experience growing pains the way the Patriots wide receiving corps struggled in September. I will share that as a fantasy owner, Anderson has been sitting on a majority of my dynasty league rosters since August.

Ryan Riddle is also a big fan of Anderson’s game. Riddle, a record holder at Cal, speculated that Anderson’s role as a backup was due more to politics than talent. Based on what I studied last year, I believe there’s validity to that assertion.

Based on what I saw from Anderson this summer, I think he has the best combination of physical dimensions, agility, burst, and balance of the backs on this roster. Knowshon Moreno is a better passing down back, but I think Anderson offers more as a runner and, with more experience, he has the potential to be as good as Moreno in the passing game.

In fact, I think Anderson showed me more agility this summer in Broncos’ camp than what I saw at Cal. His impressive preseason combined with lackluster performances from Hillman and some doubts about Ball led me to hold onto Anderson where I could.

Here’s a sample of what I have on Anderson in the 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio.  

Player Comparison:  Rudi Johnson due to  Anderson’s thick frame, well-balanced style, and a downhill mentality. He’s an economic runner with good feet like Johnson.

Overall Assessment: Anderson is a hard runner with a good burst, skill as a pass protector, and capable of starting for a team if called upon. I think he could surprise in the NFL as a lead back in a committee and even be the full-time starter if called upon.

Profile of C.J. Anderson, Cal (5-8, 224)
Anderson is a strong runner with good lower body development that helps him explode through contact. He possesses a low center of gravity and is rarely knocked backward. Anderson runs with low pad level and hits holes hard, but he also demonstrates patience and cutback skill to press a hole to let his blocks develop. He does a good job anticipating interior blocks and working through double teams just as they develop to hit tight creases for positive gains.

He also has a good enough burst to get through fairly tight creases and beat an unblocked backside defender to the crease. Although he plays with quickness, he appears to be a one-speed runner without a lot of lateral agility once at full speed and into the secondary. A real positive of Anderson’s game is his feet, which are a lot like that of former Bengals runner Rudi Johnson who didn’t thrive with elaborate cuts, but could changed his stride to get downfield and avoid trash in the hole or make one cut. Anderson does the same thing.

The Golden Bear also demonstrates press and cut skills on zone plays. He’s more of a one-cut runner with decent feet, but I didn’t see evidence of great elusiveness. His power is a little better than functional, but not extraordinary.

The Cal back carries the ball under his outside arm (right or left) and as a receiver he catches the ball with his hands, does a good job working with his quarterback to present a good target, and he can take a hit in the act of securing the football.

Pass blocking is good and can get better. Sometimes Anderson will “catch” a defender with his hands out in pass protection rather than deliver a punch, but when he decides to strike with his hands, he displays excellent placement and power with good technique. He also displays accurate diagnosis the oncoming pressure. I think he has a chance to surprise at the NFL level because of his build, style, and smarts as a runner. I think he can be a first-line reserve back in the NFL because he does everything well enough to start, but nothing extraordinary that would warrant him an instant opportunity to compete for the job until he at least proves what he can do at the pro level in some games.

C.J. Anderson RSP Play-By-Play Reports and Grading Checklists

For more analysis of skill players like this post, download the 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio available April 1. Prepayment is available now. Better yet, if you’re a fantasy owner the 56-page Post-Draft Add-on comes with the 2013 RSP at no additional charge. Best, yet, 10 percent of every sale is donated to Darkness to Light to combat sexual abuse. You can purchase past editions of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio for just $9.95 apiece.

Reads Listens Views 10/24/2013

This looked like an overthrow, but it was a rookie mistake by the promising Johnathan Franklin. Read the Gut Check and find out why.
This looked like an overthrow, but it was a rookie mistake by the promising Johnathan Franklin. Read the Gut Check and find out why.

Thanks

If you’re new to the RSP blog, every Friday I post Reads Listens Views – items I’m consuming on the Internet. Some of it is football, a lot of it isn’t. You won’t like everything I share, but I believe you’ll like at least one thing each week. It’s also a chance for me to thank you for reading my content on this blog, at Footballguys, Football Outsiders, and (each January) The New York Times.

And most of all, I get to thank those of you who support my work here and elsewhere by purchasing The Rookie Scouting Portfolio publication.

For the uninitiated, the RSP is The Rookie Scouting Portfolio, my annual publication that is the most comprehensive analysis of skill position players around. I have nearly 1300 pages of quality content (just for 2013) to back that up. Learn about it here. You can download 2013’s publication ($19.95) or get past issues at half price ($9.95) at this link. I give 10 percent of each sale to Darkness to Light, a non-profit devoted to preventing sexual abuse in communities through the creation and implementation of training and awareness programs.

Evan Silva, thank you for reminding us on Twitter of this gem.

Listens

[youtube=http://youtu.be/EXOUkzIEib8]

I’ve played my share of Derek Trucks guitar solos in this weekly feature, but Susan Tedeschi performs a tasty one here.

Football Reads

  • Football Outsiders’ Film Room – Cian Fahey does a sweet job studying Ryan Tannehill and Joe Haden. I like his focus on cornerbacks, it makes me think about receivers. If Cian’s knee wasn’t as old as I am I’d like to pair what I’ve learned against what he knows with a reasonable passer targeting me. Fahey, if you dish any of that Janoris Jenkins trash my way – even in Irish slang – you’ll wish I was Steve Smith.
  • Guide to the NFL Workout Circuit – Former National Football Post writer and NFL safety Matt Bowen writes about the vicious cycle of in-season tryouts to join a team.
  • Disruption Is Production – Josh Norris and I have a mutual admiration society going. Within a week of each other we posted articles about two of the most disruptive defensive tackles in college football and why their on-field production doesn’t always appear in the box score. Good stuff if you want to get past headlines that do nothing but perpetuate shallow knowledge of the game you love.
  • Random ShotsJoe Bryant, with a little help from some great friends, writes a terrific feature on the lighter side of the NFL. Bryant has a simple, direct style that makes for great reading.
  • The Gut Check No.283: The Gut Check’s Film Room – I open the home theater for a double feature of Jarrett Boykin and Case Keenum with a short feature on Joique Bell.

Views – Mandatory Education on The War on Drugs

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uuCVbR8vO_U]

Listens

[youtube=http://youtu.be/Vef03k5i8VI]

Non-Football Reads

  • Russell Brand Started a Revolution Last Night – Whether you agree or disagree with Brand, I like that he encourages people to question things we often take for granted. Most of all, I love that he doesn’t take a reporter’s agenda and format for granted and instead questions them at every turn on their modus operandi. Keep holding the mirror to their faces until they realize they’re behavior is a silly game.
  • Why I Made BlackfishThe documentary about Sea World’s practice of keeping Orcas in captivity is heartbreaking, but a must-see. Did you know there’s no human fatality by an Orca on record in the wild? Go figure.
  • Wildlife Photographer of the Year – Worth viewing some beauty in its element right about now, am I right?
  • U.S. Rivers Packed With Garbage – Silly me, to think garbage only went in our landfills and legislatures.
  • Thinking Fast And Slow – Adam Harstad is a long-time Footballguys’ Shark Pool regular and new staff writer. He recommended this book from heralded economist on cognitive bias. Adding it to my reading list.

Views – Most Popular Boys’ Names By Year Since 1960 – Gif From The Atlantic

Listens

[youtube=http://youtu.be/nls1HtXQe8E]

I like this pop group. These guys can sing, play, and jazz up something that would otherwise be pretty bland.