Posts tagged NFL Draft prospects

Boiler Room: Penn State WR Allen Robinson

Photo by Penn State News.
Photo by Penn State News.

Most believe Allen Robinson is a good prospect, so why show a positive play in the Boiler Room?

The Boiler Room Series is my attempt to capture the state of an NFL prospect’s development into a single play. This is an impossible task, but what if you have a limited number of plays to state your case about a prospect to the leadership team within your organization? If you’ve researched enough about this player, a cut-up of choice plays with a short presentation can provide a decent assessment of strengths, weaknesses, and potential fit for the team. You can read the rest of my Boiler Room Series here.

Penn State junior Allen Robinson is tall, quick, strong, and adjusts well to the football. There are times he looks like a player in the mold of the Marc Trestman’s outside receivers in Chicago. I could show you plays that make Robinson’s fan boys write me and respond with “great read,” but it’s pointless. If I were contributing to a cut-up of Robinson’s play that would inform a coaching staff what they have to address with Robinson early in his career, the play I’d choose is a crossing route against Nebraska.

It’s a simple play, Robinson is the single receiver in a 3×1 receiver 10 personnel shotgun set with the cornerback playing tight to the ling of scrimmage with a slight outside shade with 0:55 in the half at the 29 of Penn State. The receiver does a solid job of using an outside-in release with his footwork and he doesn’t encounter any resistance from the corner. The free release inside gives Robinson some cushion to accelerate and then break inside on a cross.

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8XjPVcKDF00&start=178&w=560&h=315]

The ball arrives and Robinson makes the catch, takes a hit in the back, and is dropped a couple of yards inside the catch point. No yards are gained on after the catch. Good route, good catch, what’s there to say?

No yards gained after the catch.

One of the best things about a crossing route is that it gives the receiver a chance to earn yards after the catch. Robinson failed to do so on this play not because of the coverage or the throw. He left his feet.

A common mistake young receivers make on crossing routes thrown at chest level and above is to leap for the target. Sometimes it’s difficult to gauge the trajectory of the ball and receivers would rather err on making the catch than not earning yards after contact. However, the best receivers track the ball well enough to make the reception on the move with their hands away from their bodies.

If Robinson can fix this one area of his game, and it’s a correctable flaw, he becomes a more productive player immediately.

For analysis of skill players in this year’s draft class, download the 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio.The 2014 RSP will available April 1 and if you pre-order before February 10, you get a 10 percent discount. Better yet, if you’re a fantasy owner the 56-page Post-Draft Add-on comes with the 2012 – 2014 RSPs at no additional charge and available for download within a week after the NFL Draft. Best, yet, 10 percent of every sale is donated to Darkness to Light to combat sexual abuse. You can purchase past editions of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio for just $9.95 apiece.

Futures: Texas Tech TE Jace Amaro

Jace Amaro has the physical skills and baseline football acumen to generate talk that he's a future Jason Witten. Photo by Ladybugbkt.
 Photo by Ladybugbkt.

Jace Amaro has the physical skills and baseline football acumen to generate talk that he’s a future Jason Witten

Futures: Texas Tech TE Jace Amaro

by Matt Waldman

The best NFL teams possess three characteristics on the field: resiliency, intimidation, and explosiveness. Two are psychological and one is physical. All three are methods of managing the most pervasive elemental force in football: punishment.

Be it physical, mental, or emotional, or how a player takes it, inflicts it, or avoids it, punishment is a bellwether for success in the NFL. Name a good pro player or prospect and his game is an individual expression of how he arrived at slowing the cumulative effects of punishment on his body, mind, and psyche while redirecting it to his opponent.

On the football field, Jace Amaro is a powerful and explosive athlete whose size, strength, and speed can intimidate opponents. A unanimous first-team All-American and one of the two best prospects at the tight end position eligible for the 2014 NFL Draft, the 6-foot-5, 260-pound Amaro is a complete player with the upside to develop into an All-Pro with similar strengths as Dallas Cowboys tight end Jason Witten.

Click here to read the rest at Football Outsiders

No-Huddle Series: LSU RB Spencer Ware (and 2015 Update)

[youtube=http://youtu.be/_8Hfl0SlXRQ]

(Audio of this post’s highlight videos is NSFW)

“If I had to take a hit from anybody, it wouldn’t be Spencer Ware. He’s a guy who’s going to put everything into it and fight for that extra yard.”

– Josh Dworaczyk, LSU Tackle

[Author’s Note: For a look at Ware’s work with the Chiefs, scroll to the end] I was a Spencer Ware fan the moment I watched him out-play his teammate Stevan Ridley as a freshman against Texas A&M in the 2010-2011 Cotton Bowl. Ridley had 105 yards and a touchdown to Ware’s 102. The future Patriot’s starter needed 24 touches. Ware did it with 10.

Ware isn’t a breakaway threat; he’s a hot-running, helmet-crunching, break-your-back, ball-carrying warrior. He’s rugged, smart, and technically sound in most aspects of the game. If Seattle didn’t have a Robert Turbin, Ware is the back I’d want backing up Marshawn Lynch. If Mike Shanahan wants a lean, mean, running back depth chart, he can dispense with most of the backs behind Alfred Morris and opt for Ware.

If I were Jerry Jones – oh man, if I were Jerry Jones . . . I could fill three long columns that might cause half my readers to suffocate from laughter if I wrote about what I’d do if I were the Joan Rivers of NFL owners. Mr. Jones, Commissioner Goodell on Line 1, your plastic surgeon on Line 2, and Dez Bryant’s nanny on Line 3. 

It might be easy for any of these teams to make drafting Ware a reality. Les Miles has his running back flavor of the month – all due respect to a talented Jeremy Hill – which is a reason that if I were Ware, I too would have left LSU before my senior year. Combine that dynamic with the depth of this running back class and Ware might not be drafted in April.

I can think of dozens of plays to show – several flashier than the three I have here. However, I couldn’t think of many better opponents than – according to Football Outsiders metrics – South Carolina’s 12th-ranked run defense. Here is one play that reveals aspects of Ware’s game that makes him an NFL-ready runner – regardless of when or if he’s drafted.

Running Back Effectiveness: Pad level > Speed

WareA1

Speed is breath-taking and it scares defenses witless because one play can spell a six-point end of a series. But Al Davis’ “Speed Kills” mantra is dead, because it’s a lot like shark attacks: it scares more often than it kills. Just like the nature of sharks, we understand the nature of speed better than we used to.

Rarely in football can speed be the primary and secondary weapon of a running back. Once a player has the baseline level of speed required to compete in the NFL, there are several other factors that are far more important. Ask Arian Foster, Frank Gore, Marshawn Lynch, BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Steven Jackson, Willis McGahee, Alfred Morris, and Michael Turner if breakaway speed is all-important – this list comprises eight of the top-24 runners in 2012 and three of the top-six performers.

Spencer Ware has the skill to join this list if he can make the most of his opportunities. Here’s Ware demonstrating the skill and maturity I’m talking about on a six-yard gain for the first down on a 3rd and 1 from the Gamecocks’ 21 with 9:20 in the first quarter. The play begins as a 22-personnel, I-formation run versus nine defenders in the box (above). Ware begins the play by taking the exchange behind his fullback towards left guard.

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The South Carolina defender’s penetration and attack of the fullback drops the lead blocker three yards behind the line of scrimmage. From this point of the exchange, Ware has about two steps to avoid the pileup about to happen in the backfield.

WareA3

Ware bounces the run inside with a quick cut through the lane up the middle of the defense, gaining two yards untouched. As big as this hole appears now, South Carolina’s defensive front is filled with the type of athletes to close a crease right-quick and in a hurry.

WareA4

Ware has to step over the rest of his jack-knifed fullback in the backfield as the defense begins to close the crease from three separate points. A first down is likely, due to the width of the initial opening towards the line of scrimmage. However, within two steps Ware and these three defenders should meet at the 20 and good pad level will be essential for the LSU Tiger to get the job done.

WareA5

Ware gets his pads lower than the oncoming defender and at a depth that allows him to squirt under the front. The point isn’t to break a long play as much as avoid enough contact to ensure a first down. It’s surprising how many good college backs forget this point and lean too hard on their strength or speed.

WareA6

Ware ducks under the second level of the defense – five defenders total – to get the first down. This is the point where I expected to play to end, but Ware is only a third of the way through. His pad level, leg drive, balance, and strength gets him through the the other side of this pile of future NFL defenders.

WareA7

Ware emerges from the four-defender cave with good body lean down field and in position to gain extra yards despite three of these four defenders still holding onto him. With a 5-11, 223-pound frame, Ware keeps his legs moving and earns three extra yards, extricating himself from two of the three defenders before the defensive back hits the runner head-on at the 15.

WareA8

Quick feet. Pad level. Balance. Strength. Second effort. All components of an excellent short-yardage runner against one of the best defenses in college football. My colleague Ryan Lownes mentioned on Twitter that he sees an athlete of Rudi Johnson’s ilk – not a breakaway runner, but a player capable of grinding it out as a bell cow back. I think if you combine the styles of BenJarvus Green-Ellis and Marshawn Lynch, it captures a lot of the good that is in Spencer Ware’s game. Of course, name-dropping Marion Barber may suffice:

[youtube=http://youtu.be/iqmIby3LYkQ]

2015 Update: Due to a season-ending injury as a Seahawk and two off-field incidents that earned him a ticket out of town (despite a scout telling me that the team really liked him as a tailback), it took longer than anyone might imagine for Ware to display his talents. But Ware earned a shot in relief of Charcandrick West against the Chargers and he looked much like the player mentioned above.

Remember this play from LSU?

[youtube=https://youtu.be/_8Hfl0SlXRQ?t=30s]

Looks a lot like this play with the Chiefs

[wpvideo W3BbMsiz]

Although not exact, look at the recklessness at the goal line to vault and/or spin off contact at LSU and then with the Chiefs.

[youtube=https://youtu.be/_8Hfl0SlXRQ?t=1m10s]

[wpvideo nS8G6261]

There’s also that combination of knowing when to be patient behind the line of scrimmage and balancing his wiggle with straight-up power to attack defenses once into the crease.

[youtube=https://youtu.be/_8Hfl0SlXRQ?t=1m32s]

[wpvideo LnwRUa5k]

The Chargers defense is a weak unit, but it’s still a professional grade defense and Ware looked every bit like the player who arguably out-played Stevan Ridley at LSU.

Don’t be surprised if Ware earns a shot to split time with West, if not usurp West’s role. The schedule is favorable for the Chiefs ground game, Ware is fresh, and West’s hamstring injury could give Andy Reid an excuse to give Ware an extended tryout for the lead role.

For more analysis of skill players like this post, download the 2015 Rookie Scouting Portfolio available April 1. Prepayment is available now. Better yet, if you’re a fantasy owner the 56-page Post-Draft Add-on comes with the 2013 RSP at no additional charge. Best, yet, 10 percent of every sale is donated to Darkness to Light to combat sexual abuse. You can purchase past editions of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio for just $9.95 apiece.

Reads Listens Views 2/8/2013

Goofy picture. Good runner. Lache Sistrunk (Photo by Mike Davis).
Goofy picture. Good runner. Lache Sistrunk (Photo by Mike Davis).

Quick Take: Lache Seastrunk

One of my favorite runners in the NFL is Ahmad Bradshaw. He was never going to be a dominant player, but there’s no denying his combination of skill and heart. One of my favorite games I’ve ever watched of a running back was Bradshaw at Marshall versus an excellent Tennessee run defense. Bradshaw had to work incredibly hard to just reach the line of scrimmage on most runs and it was a telling performance of his NFL future.

Bradshaw’s footwork, pad level, quickness, and balance have been hallmarks of his game. If he didn’t have a chronic foot injury, his career would have been even better than what we saw in New York. This sounds a bit like a career epitaph for the back whom the Giants released this week. Who knows. Whether or not he continues to thrive, he earned the respect of anyone who truly watches football.

[youtube=http://youtu.be/bCL87fQxXK8]

A player who reminds me of Bradshaw after a first look is Baylor sophomore Lache Seastrunk. Quick feet, excellent burst, the skill to layer cuts and set up defenders in tight spaces, and moments of excellent pad level and fight after contact. Most of my readers probably know about him. If you’re a casual college fan, here’s an introduction.

Thank You

First, thank you all for the birthday wishes on Wednesday. It’s incredibly humble to get the kind of outpouring I received on Twitter. If you’re a new follower as a result, I’d like to thank you for checking out what I do. Each Friday at the RSP blog, I post a variety of things to read, listen, and view about football and anything else that I find insightful, funny, or entertaining.

It’s also the time I like to thank my readers who purchase the Rookie Scouting Portfolio publication. Available for download every April 1 (no joke) for going on eight years, the RSP is an online .PDF publication devoted to the play-by-play study of NFL prospects at the offensive skill positions. The publication has a menu that bookmarks the document so you have two types of analysis. The first portion is a magazine-style, pre-draft analysis of 120-150 pages that includes position rankings, player comparisons, skill set analysis of each position, and sleepers.

The second portion is where I show all my work: between 700-800 pages of grading reports, play-by-play analysis of every player and game I watched, and a glossary that defines every criteria in my grading reports. My readers who want the bottom line love the first half of the book and appreciate the transparency of this section. My hardcore readers love the fact that they can dive as deep as they want into these raw play-by-play notes.

Included with the RSP (since 2012) is a post-draft document between 50-70 pages that comes out a week after the NFL Draft with updated post-draft rankings, tiers, team fit analysis, and fantasy cheat sheet with value analysis (Russell Wilson was calculated as the best value last year). Fantasy owners can’t get enough of it.

The RSP is $19.95 and I donate 10 percent of each sale to Darkness to Light, a non-profit dedicated to training individuals and communities on the prevention of sexual abuse. Past years of publications (2006-2012) are available for $9.95 and I also donate 10 percent of each sale to D2L. You can prepay for the 2013 RSP now.

Listens

Robert Henson, the bassist I used to play with in high school, is now a professional musician who tours with Corey Smith, has a group called Telegram, and performs around the southeast with every kind of idiom imaginable, ranging from pit orchestras to folk to jazz.  Here’s Madonna’s “Like a Virgin” with a heavy dose of Texas BBQ at the Velvet Note, new venue in Atlanta with world class acoustics. Funny and well done.

[youtube=http://youtu.be/hUVQR4Yww1o]

Views

Rightfully so, we’re in awe of Adrian Peterson’s second-half run of production while recovering from an ACL injury and a sports hernia. However, I think perhaps we ought to turn to our spouses and feel that same sense of awe when we think of them giving birth to our children. Here are two guys from Holland opting to experience what contractions feel like. Funny and partially insightful. I say partially because my friend Sarah who posted this video on her Facebook page titled, “Labor. It’s not for the feint of heart,” followed up with this comment:

“The really funny thing is that they STILL have no idea what it’s like because

  1. They knew they could bow out at any time and didn’t have to see it to completion and
  2. They missed the whole push-a-living-being-out-your-vagina part.

BUT, a valiant endeavor, nonetheless.”

[youtube=http://youtu.be/A44oEcmDn1c]

Perhaps football’s Wolverine will give this a try for a charitable cause – once he recovers from that hernia.

Football Reads

Non-Football Reads

Quinton Coples Part II: Pad Level And The Pass Rush

Quinton Coples will be watching and learning a little more than you might expect from a top draft pick if he doesn't improve his technique quickly. Photo by Jene Bramel.

Editor’s Note: Dr. Jene Bramel is a staff writer at Footballguys.com where he is among the best in the fantasy football business analyzing individual defensive players and player injuries. His top-notch work includes the columns “Reading the Defense,” “Second Opinion,” and his popular segments on The Audible podcasts. You can find the first part of his analysis of Quinton Coples’ performance against the run in this earlier post. Follow Jene on Twitter @JeneBramel.

By Jene Bramel

Many observers – myself included – have compared Quinton Coples to Julius Peppers. It’s hard to avoid the comparison. Both are tall, athletic all-around defensive end talents from North Carolina capable of dominant play.

Yet when asked which current NFL player he feels his game most resembles it isn’t Peppers that Coples mentions. It’s Jason Pierre-Paul.

I think Coples’ comparison is reasonable. Continue reading

Kendall Wright and the Money Catch

Nyan Boateng earning his scholarship over the middle versus USC. This is the kind of play that receivers must make between the hashes to earn that second NFL contract. Photo by Avinash Kunnath.

If you didn’t see yesterday’s post, there’s more analysis of Kendall Wright’s routes here.

I love the intellectual component of football. There’s rich material to explore with every position, unit and team from the perspective of technique and strategy. It’s what I do here almost daily.

But to say football is essentially an intellectual game is horseshit. It’s far and away an emotional game. Hitting might require a technical component to doing it the right way, but it also requires violence to do it properly and violence is an emotional act.

Think I’m wrong? Take up boxing or a martial art and spar with an opponent. There’s a big difference between knowing how to Continue reading