Posts tagged NFL Draft Sleepers

No-Huddle Series: LSU RB Spencer Ware (and 2015 Update)

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(Audio of this post’s highlight videos is NSFW)

“If I had to take a hit from anybody, it wouldn’t be Spencer Ware. He’s a guy who’s going to put everything into it and fight for that extra yard.”

– Josh Dworaczyk, LSU Tackle

[Author’s Note: For a look at Ware’s work with the Chiefs, scroll to the end] I was a Spencer Ware fan the moment I watched him out-play his teammate Stevan Ridley as a freshman against Texas A&M in the 2010-2011 Cotton Bowl. Ridley had 105 yards and a touchdown to Ware’s 102. The future Patriot’s starter needed 24 touches. Ware did it with 10.

Ware isn’t a breakaway threat; he’s a hot-running, helmet-crunching, break-your-back, ball-carrying warrior. He’s rugged, smart, and technically sound in most aspects of the game. If Seattle didn’t have a Robert Turbin, Ware is the back I’d want backing up Marshawn Lynch. If Mike Shanahan wants a lean, mean, running back depth chart, he can dispense with most of the backs behind Alfred Morris and opt for Ware.

If I were Jerry Jones – oh man, if I were Jerry Jones . . . I could fill three long columns that might cause half my readers to suffocate from laughter if I wrote about what I’d do if I were the Joan Rivers of NFL owners. Mr. Jones, Commissioner Goodell on Line 1, your plastic surgeon on Line 2, and Dez Bryant’s nanny on Line 3. 

It might be easy for any of these teams to make drafting Ware a reality. Les Miles has his running back flavor of the month – all due respect to a talented Jeremy Hill – which is a reason that if I were Ware, I too would have left LSU before my senior year. Combine that dynamic with the depth of this running back class and Ware might not be drafted in April.

I can think of dozens of plays to show – several flashier than the three I have here. However, I couldn’t think of many better opponents than – according to Football Outsiders metrics – South Carolina’s 12th-ranked run defense. Here is one play that reveals aspects of Ware’s game that makes him an NFL-ready runner – regardless of when or if he’s drafted.

Running Back Effectiveness: Pad level > Speed

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Speed is breath-taking and it scares defenses witless because one play can spell a six-point end of a series. But Al Davis’ “Speed Kills” mantra is dead, because it’s a lot like shark attacks: it scares more often than it kills. Just like the nature of sharks, we understand the nature of speed better than we used to.

Rarely in football can speed be the primary and secondary weapon of a running back. Once a player has the baseline level of speed required to compete in the NFL, there are several other factors that are far more important. Ask Arian Foster, Frank Gore, Marshawn Lynch, BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Steven Jackson, Willis McGahee, Alfred Morris, and Michael Turner if breakaway speed is all-important – this list comprises eight of the top-24 runners in 2012 and three of the top-six performers.

Spencer Ware has the skill to join this list if he can make the most of his opportunities. Here’s Ware demonstrating the skill and maturity I’m talking about on a six-yard gain for the first down on a 3rd and 1 from the Gamecocks’ 21 with 9:20 in the first quarter. The play begins as a 22-personnel, I-formation run versus nine defenders in the box (above). Ware begins the play by taking the exchange behind his fullback towards left guard.

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The South Carolina defender’s penetration and attack of the fullback drops the lead blocker three yards behind the line of scrimmage. From this point of the exchange, Ware has about two steps to avoid the pileup about to happen in the backfield.

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Ware bounces the run inside with a quick cut through the lane up the middle of the defense, gaining two yards untouched. As big as this hole appears now, South Carolina’s defensive front is filled with the type of athletes to close a crease right-quick and in a hurry.

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Ware has to step over the rest of his jack-knifed fullback in the backfield as the defense begins to close the crease from three separate points. A first down is likely, due to the width of the initial opening towards the line of scrimmage. However, within two steps Ware and these three defenders should meet at the 20 and good pad level will be essential for the LSU Tiger to get the job done.

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Ware gets his pads lower than the oncoming defender and at a depth that allows him to squirt under the front. The point isn’t to break a long play as much as avoid enough contact to ensure a first down. It’s surprising how many good college backs forget this point and lean too hard on their strength or speed.

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Ware ducks under the second level of the defense – five defenders total – to get the first down. This is the point where I expected to play to end, but Ware is only a third of the way through. His pad level, leg drive, balance, and strength gets him through the the other side of this pile of future NFL defenders.

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Ware emerges from the four-defender cave with good body lean down field and in position to gain extra yards despite three of these four defenders still holding onto him. With a 5-11, 223-pound frame, Ware keeps his legs moving and earns three extra yards, extricating himself from two of the three defenders before the defensive back hits the runner head-on at the 15.

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Quick feet. Pad level. Balance. Strength. Second effort. All components of an excellent short-yardage runner against one of the best defenses in college football. My colleague Ryan Lownes mentioned on Twitter that he sees an athlete of Rudi Johnson’s ilk – not a breakaway runner, but a player capable of grinding it out as a bell cow back. I think if you combine the styles of BenJarvus Green-Ellis and Marshawn Lynch, it captures a lot of the good that is in Spencer Ware’s game. Of course, name-dropping Marion Barber may suffice:

[youtube=http://youtu.be/iqmIby3LYkQ]

2015 Update: Due to a season-ending injury as a Seahawk and two off-field incidents that earned him a ticket out of town (despite a scout telling me that the team really liked him as a tailback), it took longer than anyone might imagine for Ware to display his talents. But Ware earned a shot in relief of Charcandrick West against the Chargers and he looked much like the player mentioned above.

Remember this play from LSU?

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Looks a lot like this play with the Chiefs

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Although not exact, look at the recklessness at the goal line to vault and/or spin off contact at LSU and then with the Chiefs.

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There’s also that combination of knowing when to be patient behind the line of scrimmage and balancing his wiggle with straight-up power to attack defenses once into the crease.

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The Chargers defense is a weak unit, but it’s still a professional grade defense and Ware looked every bit like the player who arguably out-played Stevan Ridley at LSU.

Don’t be surprised if Ware earns a shot to split time with West, if not usurp West’s role. The schedule is favorable for the Chiefs ground game, Ware is fresh, and West’s hamstring injury could give Andy Reid an excuse to give Ware an extended tryout for the lead role.

For more analysis of skill players like this post, download the 2015 Rookie Scouting Portfolio available April 1. Prepayment is available now. Better yet, if you’re a fantasy owner the 56-page Post-Draft Add-on comes with the 2013 RSP at no additional charge. Best, yet, 10 percent of every sale is donated to Darkness to Light to combat sexual abuse. You can purchase past editions of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio for just $9.95 apiece.

No-Huddle Series: TE Justice Cunningham

The "Old Ball Coach" has some great athletes at defensive end in Columbia, but there's an intriguing end on offense worth checking out. Photo by Keith Allison.
The “Old Ball Coach” has some great athletes at defensive end in Columbia, but there’s an intriguing end on offense worth checking out. Photo by Keith Allison.

All qualifiers about injury, fit, and professionalism aside, the 2013 class of tight end prospects could be the deepest I have ever seen. It would only be a mild surprise if three years from now there is a tight end from this group who becomes a valued contributor for an NFL team and began his career as a rookie free agent. A player who folks might be sleeping on is South Carolina’s Justice Cunningham.

His 2012 stats are modest: 23 catches, 324 yards, and no touchdowns. In fact, 2012’s yardage total exceeds his 2009-2011 output by 67 yards.  He has only scored once in his career.

This is one example among many that illustrates why the box scores don’t reveal the depth and potential of a player. Cunningham has a lot of tools to become a valuable contributor in an NFL offense. At 6-4, 264 lbs., Cunningham is a good blocker in the running and passing game with room to get better. He has quick hands and feet, he delivers a punch, and he has the strength and effort to work on an island against future NFL-caliber athletes at linebacker and defensive end. This is where Cunningham has earned his scholarship for Steve Spurrier.

It’s the tight end’s receiving skills – an underutilized resource in Columbia, South Carolina – that could change in the NFL. I was going to show you a 29-yard reception on a wheel route versus LSU where he works between two zone defenders up the left sideline and makes a leaping grab then nearly scores with an athletic play up the sideline. It’s a display that I believe projects well to the NFL game.

A funny thing happened while searching for a better quality clip of this play to use here: I found better plays on the same highlight reel from the link above. The best one may well be the last, a seam route against Arkansas where the quarterback throws him open in the way Drew Brees loves to throw open his tight ends in New Orleans.

This play combines aspects of his game that I think makes him an underrated prospect: speed to stretch the seam, skill against tight coverage, and athleticism to adjust to the football with is back to the quarterback. Remember, Cunningham is a prospect unlikely to hear his name called in April any time before the late afternoon of the draft’s third day – if that.  A few years down the line, this kind of skill could prove to be a great bargain compared to the likes of Tyler Eirfert, Zach Ertz, or Dion Sims.

Cunningham begins the play with an outside release and then works under the Arkansas linebacker to get up the seam.
Cunningham begins the play with an outside release and then works under the Arkansas linebacker to get up the seam.

South Carolina has a rep for being a pass-happy system under Steve Spurrier and it is true that the Ole’ Ball Coach is an aggressive play caller. At the same time, the Gamecocks employ a lot of 11 personnel and 12 personnel sets. Cunningham executes a nice hesitation just after his initial release to bait the linebacker into thinking this could be a cross or a hook underneath him.

Justice's head, knees, and arms all indicate he's about to break inside or hook under the linebacker.
Justice’s head, knees, and arms all indicate he’s about to break inside or hook under the linebacker.

There is no drumming of the arms, the head is down,and the hips are bent just enough along with the angle of his turn inside the hash that the linebacker stays on his toes to anticipate an underneath route from Cunningham. This is enough for the tight end to accelerate inside the linebacker and get 20 yards down field to make a play on the football.

Cunningham has inside position as the ball arrives. It doesn't look like a lot of separation, but you'll see soon why this is an NFL-caliber play.
Cunningham has inside position as the ball arrives. It doesn’t look like a lot of separation, but you’ll see soon why this is an NFL-caliber play.

As the ball arrives over his inside shoulder, Cunningham makes a full extension for the ball. His ability to to lay out and make this adjustment at the last moment is part and parcel of good NFL tight end play in the passing game. I also like the fact that he continues to run though the pass until the last second.

Cunningham makes the catch over his shoulder with his arms fully extended - a play many good college wide receivers fail to make.
Cunningham makes the catch over his shoulder with his arms fully extended – a play many good college wide receivers fail to make.

The best part of this play is not what I just showed you. A closer look from the red zone reveals a fuller dimension of what makes this an NFL-caliber reception.

Cunningham works inside the linebacker as the quarterback begins his release. For the quarterback to make this throw with this view of the action he has to have confidence in his receiver in tight coverage.
Cunningham works inside the linebacker as the quarterback begins his release. For the quarterback to make this throw with this view of the action he has to have confidence in his receiver in tight coverage.

Cunningham does a good job of reducing his shoulder just enough that the defender is forced to use his front arm to check the tight end down the field. It’s also what gives the tight end an opportunity to set up his break further inside with the ball in the air.

Cunningham turns outside to track the ball but the pass will be arriving over his inside shoulder.
Cunningham turns outside to track the ball but the pass will be arriving over his inside shoulder.

How do we know that Cunningham didn’t turn the wrong way or the quarterback threw the ball over the incorrect shoulder? We don’t without asking them, but based on the coverage where there is no safety over top, I think the quarterback knew to throw the receiver open and made the adjustment. I also think Cunningham set up this break inside with this initial turn. Even if I’m giving Cunningham too much credit, the fact that he’s athletic enough to make the adjustment you see ahead also projects well to the NFL.

Cunningham turns inside and across the face of his coverage to track the ball.
Cunningham turns inside and across the face of his coverage to track the ball.

As Cunningham completes his turn, the defender is caught in a position where he either has to turn back and lose ground to the tight end or continue to play the man and hope he can knock the ball away. It doesn’t help the linebacker that he chose to look straight up to track the ball, which will slow his stride down field and give Cunningham even more separation.

 

Cunningham extends for the ball, makes the catch, and has his back shielding the defender due to his turn.
Cunningham extends for the ball, makes the catch, and has his back shielding the defender due to his turn.

First down and much more – for the play from start to finish, here’s a link to where the play begins in the video. Cunningham isn’t fast, but I bet he’ll run as fast or faster time than a more heralded prospect like Michigan State’s Dion Sims – and I like Sims’ potential. It’s why the tight end depth has a chance to be crazy good for the 2013 class.

For more analysis of skill players like the post below, prepay for the 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio available April 1 for download. Better yet, if you’re a fantasy owner the 56-page Post-Draft Add-on comes with the 2013 RSP at no additional charge. Best, yet, 10 percent of every sale is donated to Darkness to Light to combat sexual abuse. Get the 2012 RSP or other past issues for just $9.95 apiece. For a current list of players studied thus far for the 2013 publication, go here

The No-Huddle Series

Arian Foster would have been in my No-Huddle Series if I had a blog back them. Read more about the series below.

The No-Huddle will be a series of posts that feature just one play on a prospect that I think says something notable about him. The players in this series will mostly be (in my opinion) late-round prospects in this draft, at best. I may throw in some top prospects because I want to share something unusual about what I saw.

I’m hoping this will be a fun way to inform and cover players that aren’t in the headlines, but readers like you want to know something about.

Obviously, you can get a lot more on these players – including some who could see ascents similar to Ahmad Bradshaw, Arian Foster, Victor Cruz, or Tony Romo – if you download the 2012 Rookie Scouting Portfolio.

You know I had to get that in.