Posts tagged NFL draft

Futures: The Hybrid RB Evolution

0 Comments read Matt Waldman
Patriots RB Shane Vereen is a good example of the influx of backs capable of making receiver-like adjustments on the football. Photo by John Martinez Paviliga.
Patriots RB Shane Vereen is a good example of the influx of backs capable of making receiver-like adjustments on the football. Photo by John Martinez Paviliga.

March is the month that I take 14-to-18 months of research and use it to generate rankings and analysis for the April 1 Rookie Scouting Portfolio publication. The labor involved in this compressed time period involves a workweek with hours averaging in the triple digits. I believe this will be the last year I have to do it this way.

I’m disclosing this because when you spend close to 100 hours in a five-day span reviewing play-by-play reports, scouting checklists, NFL Combine measurements, and watching several dozen sequences of plays another half-dozen times in order to write about running backs, you see things that you want to share. I’m not talking about hallucinations –- although I admit that I engaged in a brief, one-sided conversation with the side-view mirror of a red pickup truck parked near my favorite lunch spot in downtown Athens during the hour I took each day to leave the office that didn’t involve sleep.

That brief one-sided conversation reminded me of something Doug Farrar observed while having lunch at the Senior Bowl: Southern folk seem more accepting of eccentric behavior. I thought he was referring to someone else until that moment.

That Farrar is a perceptive guy.

Other than the realization that I’m eccentric, one of the big takeaways I had from these marathon analysis sessions of this running back class is that I think the NFL could be on the precipice of a more widespread change with how teams use the position in the passing game.

The hybridization of the NFL has been in progress for years. Marshall Faulk, Reggie
Bush, and Darren Sproles are the popular choices as heads on the pro game’s Mount Rushmore of runner-receiver hybrids. Personally, James Brooks would be my fourth bust in that crew.

[youtube=http://youtu.be/F68uk_EKCrs?start=110]

Brooks caught the ball away from his body on difficult passes even by wide receiver standards. And compared to other NFL backs of his era, Brooks saw a lot of downfield targets that many teams wouldn’t consider throwing to their runners.

These four would be my choices as the players who have ushered in the dawning of the hybrid runner era. Bush and Sproles have made splitting the back from the formation a more common and desirable practice, but Brooks and Faulk were evolutionary oddities. In fact, I’d argue that Faulk’s ability to run intermediate routes like a starting receiver made the Rams back ahead of his time in the same way that Jim Brown’s speed, change of direction, and short-area explosiveness in a 232-pound frame was ahead of the curve.

What is happening at the college level may be approaching a future that Faulk provided fans a glimpse of. The future is beyond the long handoffs and the occasional wheel and seam routes that Bush and Sproles execute. It’s the ability of runners of all shapes and sizes to make plays on targets in tight coverage or to see primary targets on so-called, “50/50 balls” –- even passes where backs are “thrown open” by design.

And it’s not just scat backs seeing these targets; prototypical bell cow backs and short-yardage types are getting into the act. This is a bold step forward in the evolutionary line of the position.

Read the rest at Football Outsiders

No-Huddle Series: Boise State RB D.J. Harper

0 Comments read Players, Running Back
For a time, D.J. Harper was considered the best back at Boise State - and Doug Martin was on the team . Photo by Football Schedule.
For a time, D.J. Harper was considered the best back at Boise State – and Doug Martin was on the team . Photo by Football Schedule.

Once upon a time, D.J. Harper was the lead back in the Boise State offense over Doug Martin. Two ACL injuries later and now finishing his sixth year of eligibility, Harper is entering the NFL Draft. I remember seeing Harper before the injury and there was no doubt he could fly.

Most doubt Harper will ever be better than Martin in the NFL. However there is more to Harper’s game than speed, which is why the slower, post-injury version of Harper still has a chance to make an NFL roster and contribute to a starting lineup.

In fact, the post-injuries version of Harper still has more speed, burst, and change-of-direction quickness than many NFL starters. He also has an eye-popping skill that, after watching this particular running back class, I’m beginning to think is becoming more prevalent among running backs.

Patience

[youtube=http://youtu.be/ItPbhloob_A?start=74]

Backs with great speed often have an issue with patience – especially those with more straight-line skills. This 1st-and-10 run from a 11 personnel pistol with receivers 1×2 at the BSU 37 is a good example. Watch Harper press the run towards right guard, allowing his guard and tight end to pull across the formation to the left guard’s side, and then bend the run behind the them. All this is done close to the line of scrimmage and it opens a lane off left guard.

Harper makes a decisive cut downhill and up the left hash through this big hole for a quick six yards and runs through some of a wrap by the defensive back hitting his leg. Harper stumbles forward with a hop for another six yards, gaining 12 on the play. I like the second effort and balance as well as the ball security under his sideline arm.

[youtube=http://youtu.be/ItPbhloob_A?start=112]

Here’s another display of patience on the same style play: a 2×1 receiver, 11 personnel set on 1st and 10 with 4:38 in the half from the BSU 20. Once again Harper works behind his pulling guard and tight to the left end and he presses it before working to the edge. Harper demonstrates enough burst to work past the grasp of a backside defender and then turn his pads to back his way another few yards on a six-yard gain. Another nice display of ball security under his left arm.

Reading the Line of Scrimmage

[youtube=http://youtu.be/ItPbhloob_A?start=241]

This is a zone play on 1st and 10 with 8:07 in the third quarter from a 1×1 receiver, 21 personnel strong side I-formation set at the BSU 26. Harper has to deal with some penetration closing the middle creases as his fullback winds to the weak side of the formation.

Harper slows his steps and bounces to the strong side and away from the penetration. I though Harper made a quick decision and move to reach the line of scrimmage and veer away from the defender. He works outside his edge block that seals the inside and spins outside the defender at the flat. Nice job maintaining his balance to get another six yards for the first down on this play.

Balance and Speed

[youtube=http://youtu.be/ItPbhloob_A?start=169]

Harper doesn’t possess that cutback style of his old teammate Martin, whose ability to sink his hips and cut is akin to Ray Rice’s style of running. However, Harper has a quick feet and explosiveness in a gait that is similar to runners like Demarco Murray and Darren McFadden.

This 11 personnel 1×2 receiver set on 2nd and 10 at the Fresno State 38 with 2:20 in the half is a good example of Harper’s Murray-McFadden style on display. Harper makes an excellent cutback outside the left guard to reach the line of scrimmage, sprinting through a big gap where he is fast enough to bend the run a step outside the oncoming safety. Harper earns a quick four yards, runs through the wrap to his leg and spins free of the contact just in time to foil the angle of the cornerback working from the flat.

This is a nice illustration of balance and agility at a pace fast enough to get outside, earn the first down, and then reach the left flat for another 18 yards and the score. Harper finishes with a dive over the pylon and extends his left arm for good measure.

Receiving

What got my attention about Harper’s game is his work as a down-field receiver. Perhaps I haven’t watched enough Boise State games, but this surprised me. Watch Harper exit the backfield, work past the linebacker’s jam, and maintain his course up the seam. And of course, there’s the catch.

[youtube=http://youtu.be/w-Ut-ABx-d0?start=58]

Harper looks like a wide receiver on this play, dragging his feet inside the boundary while extending to the end line. It’s not the only catch of this kind I’ve seen from Harper. Although the video editing is a little too Pleasantville for my liking, it’s a terrific catch.

[youtube=http://youtu.be/gp0Wu7B99yM?start=68]

You’ll probably have to rewind and play a few times to see how Harper works open at the last moment and makes the play with a great adjustment in tight coverage. To catch the ball with this kind of speed and body control is a pro-caliber play. There was a third reception I saw against Georgia in the left flat where he had to make a catch after contact, but I couldn’t find a good replay to display.

If Harper can stay healthy and display this kind of speed, balance, patience, and body control as runner and receiver,  Harper could be shaking hands with his former backfield mate after a hard-fought game where both runners got their uniforms dirty.

For analysis of skill players in this year’s draft class, download the 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio available April 1. Prepayment is available now. Better yet, if you’re a fantasy owner the 56-page Post-Draft Add-on comes with the 2013 RSP at no additional charge. Best, yet, 10 percent of every sale is donated to Darkness to Light to combat sexual abuse. You can purchase past editions of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio for just $9.95 apiece.

Football Outsiders: Three in the Boiler

0 Comments read Players
Always a fun challenge to boil down prospects. Photo by Kerry Lannert.
Always a fun challenge to boil down prospects. Photo by Kerry Lannert.

A series I started this year at the RSP blog is The Boiler Room. One of the challenges involved with player analysis is to be succinct with delivering the goods. As the author of an annual tome, I’m often a spectacular failure in this respect. Even so, I will study a prospect and see a play unfold that does a great job of encapsulating that player’s skills. When I witness these moments, I try to imagine if I would include this play as part of a cut-up of highlights for a draft show at a major network or if I was working for an NFL organization creating cut-ups for a personnel director.

The Boiler Room is focused on prospects I expect to be drafted, and often before the fourth round. One example a few weeks ago is a play from Syracuse quarterback Ryan Nassib. So this week, I thought I’d borrow this concept from my blog and modify it to introduce three players I like in this 2013 class with two plays each. Next week, I’ll share three players in this class I like who will likely be late-round or free agent prospects.

This week’s trio is Cincinnati tight end Travis Kelce, Clemson wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins, and Kansas State linebacker Arthur Brown. What they all have in common is that draft analysts are projecting them to get picked between the late first and early second round. Despite having high grades, I think all three players are still underrated and I wouldn’t be surprised if they turn out to have better careers than their peers selected ahead of them.

Read the rest at Football Outsiders

Reads Listens Views 3/15/2013

0 Comments read Reads Listens Views
There are a fair share of Jimmy Graham-sized targets in this draft, but as I finish up my rankings, only a few have a ceiling that is even in the neighborhood of the Saint. Photo by Football Schedule.
There are a fair share of Jimmy Graham-sized targets in this draft, but as I finish up my rankings, only a few have a ceiling that is even in the neighborhood of the Saint. Photo by Football Schedule.

2013 RSP Update

I’m well into publication mode with April 1 approaching fast.  Thanks to all of you who read the blog, follow me on Twitter, and purchase the Rookie Scouting Portfolio publication. Available for download every April 1 (no joke) for going on eight years, the RSP is an online .PDF publication devoted to the play-by-play study of NFL prospects at the offensive skill positions. The publication has a menu that bookmarks the document so you have two types of analysis. The first portion is a magazine-style, pre-draft analysis of 120-150 pages that includes position rankings, player comparisons, skill set analysis of each position, and sleepers.

The second portion is where I show all my work: between 700-800 pages of grading reports, play-by-play analysis of every player and game I watched, and a glossary that defines every criteria in my grading reports. My readers who want the bottom line love the first half of the book and appreciate the transparency of this section. My hardcore readers love the fact that they can dive as deep as they want into these raw play-by-play notes.

Included with the RSP (since 2012) is a post-draft document between 50-70 pages that comes out a week after the NFL Draft with updated post-draft rankings, tiers, team fit analysis, and fantasy cheat sheet with value analysis (Russell Wilson was calculated as the best value last year). Fantasy owners can’t get enough of it.

The RSP is $19.95 and I donate 10 percent of each sale to Darkness to Light, a non-profit dedicated to training individuals and communities on the prevention of sexual abuse. Past years of publications (2006-2012) are available for $9.95 and I also donate 10 percent of each sale to D2L. You can prepay for the 2013 RSP now.

Listens I

[youtube=http://youtu.be/_d_PApKfbA0]

RSPWP2 Update

We’re into the sixth round of the second Rookie Scouting Portfolio Writers Project. We have recruited a writer panel of judges to grade the teams once we’ve finished the draft.

To follow along you can access the draft room any time and choose a team to read commentary on their selections.

One of the biggest questions I see about this project is What is the purpose? 

  • Build a winner this year?
  • Build a long-term winner?
  • Beat everyone else drafting?

The primary answer is we want discussion. Takes on players and how they fit into scheme. Interaction among some of the best people writing about football online in a variety of formats: news, strategy, advanced stats, and fantasy sports. Yes, fantasy sports writers have a rightful place at the table. I’ve had a lot of request for a grid format to view the draft picks. As we get into the middle rounds of the draft, we’ll make an Excel table available for download and update it periodically for your viewing pleasure.

Listens II

The Bridge Quartet – Exidence

Football Reads

Non-Football Reads

Views – South Carolina Tight End Justin Cunningham

[youtube=http://youtu.be/FDCV12XwmIU]

He’s not Jimmy Graham, but Heath Miller is a pretty good ceiling of comparison if you ask me.

Listens III

Trio Subtonic – There We Were

Player B

0 Comments read Players, Running Back
Why does "Player B" remind me of Fred Jackson? It begins with how his combine stats mesh with his on-field performance. Photo by Alan Kotok.
Why does “Player B” remind me of Fred Jackson? It begins with how his combine stats mesh with his on-field performance. Photo by Alan Kotok.

This time of year I’m marrying NFL Combine data with my tape analysis. I don’t take a close look until now. So today being one of the first days I’m examining the results, I came across something that – at least to the eyeball test – passed muster in a way that confirmed a conclusion I have formed while studying games. I don’t know if this conclusion fits the consensus or not, but I do have a feeling it goes against the grain.

To begin, here’s a question to answer: Based on these NFL Combine results, and nothing else, which running back is more appealing as an all-around player?

Player Ht Wt Hands 40 10 Bench Vert Jump 20 S 60 S 3 Cone
A 5092 196 9 1/8 4.52 1.6 20 35.5 10’02” 4.2 11.33 6.87
B 5102 214 9 3/4 4.73 1.6 21 39 10’05” 4.09 11.51 6.85

Don’t get your slide rule bent out of shape. This is a flawed question. This is not how I rank players.

Yet, I think it’s an interesting jumping-off point for this post.

Player A is just an inch shorter,  but 18 pounds lighter. He is also a solid step or two faster at longer distances. Despite the weight and long-speed differences, Player B has more short-area quickness and equal, if not more explosive, change of direction. If these two runners’ skills in athletic wear translated in a football game with pads, I’d say the taller, heavier, and quicker Player B would seem like the better bet.

Oregon running back Kenjon Barner has his fans here. Doug Farrar and Josh Norris believe he's a better prospect than LaMichael James. Photo by Wade Rackley.
Oregon running back Kenjon Barner has his fans here. Doug Farrar and Josh Norris believe he’s a better prospect than LaMichael James. Photo by Wade Rackley.

So you know, Player A is Oregon big-play artist Kenjon Barner. Barner’s combine results relative to this running back class are pretty good. However, Player B appears more appealing in similar ways to quicksters like Kerwynn Williams and Ray Graham and early-down bell cows like Michael Ford and Stepfan Taylor.

With the exception of 40-time and bench press, Player B is physically not too far away from workout darling Christine Michael – a prospect many consider one of the most physically talented runners in this class and a capable of top-prospect production if not for unwelcome bouts of immaturity that have held him back.

Player B might lack the breakaway capability, but if these workout results translate to the field of play I’d think that this mystery player has the size, quickness, and change of direction to produce between the tackles and in space.

In terms of what I see on the field, I think the NFL Combine results encapsulates a lot of the physical talents that I see Player B – Nebraska running back Rex Burkhead – display on the football field. His short-area quickness and agility is a notable positive of Burkhead’s game. If all you can see is the 4.73-40 time then you’re not seeing the running back position in a worthwhile context.

I believe there are plenty of highlights on YouTube to get a gist for Burkhead’s quickness and agility. The best example could be some of the plays I watched in this year’s Capital One Bowl against Georgia’s defense filled with NFL-caliber athletes. While Georgia has its breakdowns in the run game, the athlete-on-athlete match ups are worth a look when examining Burkhead’s physical skills.

Bigger Back, Little Back Moves

Burkhead is not Barry Sanders, but he does know how to layer moves that can freeze defenders while working down hill. Here is a 2nd-and-seven pass with 6:14 in the first quarter that illustrates what I’m talking about.

[youtube=http://youtu.be/NnlOx0njw7A?start=26]

Burkhead gains 16 yards from this 1×2 receiver, 11 personnel shotgun set on a screen pass from the UGA 37 where he releases from the quarterback’s left side, works to the left guard, and then turns back to the quarterback, catching the ball behind his linemen. After he works across the left guard to make the catch with his hands, he works behind the right tackle up the right hash. The is notable, but it’s the subtle head and shoulder fake combination on the defender back coming over the top from Burkhead’s outside shoulder that I value. This move fools the strong safety and forces another defender to chase the running back down.

Here’s a sharp, lateral cut on first-round athlete, Alec Ogletree at the edge on a 1st-and-10 run from the Nebraska 24 with 6:41 in the half.

[youtube=http://youtu.be/NnlOx0njw7A?start=161]

Nebraska runs power to right end with the pulling left guard working on outside linebacker Jarvis Jones, who crashes the line early with penetration. Burkhead dips outside the block, scraping close to Jones’ back so he can get down hill fast and maximize his gain. The inside linebacker Ogletree works free to the edge while shedding the tight end and has a down hill angle four yards from the Nebraska runner approaching the line of scrimmage.

Burkhead takes two small steps and cuts inside the the linebacker at the line of scrimmage and leaves the defender on his silver britches. It’s not a hard plant and cut, but I’m impressed with the quickness and precision of the footwork to change direction and it is similar to the footwork one would see from a shuttle run or cone drill.

Knowledge of Angles Equals Power

Brute force is what most people imagine when the word power is used in the context of a running back. The more important factor is a knowledge of angles. This is why a smaller back with average or even below average strength at the position can thrive when he manifests this knowledge of angles into good pad level, stiff arms, and transforming direct angles into indirect angles.

Burkhead demonstrates this ability to transform angles on the play after he jukes Olgetree to the ground. This is a six-yard gain on 2nd and five at the Nebraska 30 is a 21 personnel, strong side twin, I-formation set. Nebraska sets up a crease off left guard behind the lead fullback.

[youtube=http://youtu.be/NnlOx0njw7A?start=171]

Burkhead does a nice job of turning his shoulders away from Ogletree’s wrap and forcing the ILB to slide away from the runner. Burkhead keeps his legs moving and pulls free of the linebackers wrap and nearly another as he works to the first down marker. This slight turn of the pads is a demonstration why the Nebraska runner is more difficult for defenders to get a hat on than he seems.

Of course, Burkhead also displays the more tradition form of power on this 2nd-and-14 run at the Nebraska 26 for a 10-yard gain with 3:25 in the third quarter. This is a 1×2 receiver, 11 personnel pistol where he flanks the quarterback to the left (strong) side. They run delay with a guard pulling to the right.

[youtube=http://youtu.be/NnlOx0njw7A?start=286]

Burkhead finds a big hole inside the pulling guard and there is also a nice push from the double team of the center and right guard up the middle. The Cornhusker accelerates through that hole and then splits the double team for eight yards. He finishes the run by dragging the Georgia safety and inside linebacker a few more before lowering the pads and chopping his feet through head-on contact. When a back has the size to deliver the hammer, but the quickness to employ the change-up, he can be an effective interior runner at the NFL level.

Stylistically, Burkhead’s rushing and receiving skills remind me of Fred Jackson without the long speed.

[youtube=http://youtu.be/8FFNHZu7wyo]

Will Burkhead have Fred Jackson’s success? With today’s NFL experiencing a glut of talent at the running back position, I’m not confident in Burkhead landing in a situation where it happens. Just remember that Jackson was a Division III star who failed to stick with the Bears, Broncos, and Packers and had to play indoor football with the Sioux City Bandits for $200 a week for two years before he even earned a gig in NFL Europe. It took Jackson five years to earn an NFL start.

Burkhead at least hails from a big-time college program and already has the size that Jackson (195 pounds out of college) – now 216 pounds – lacked. Regardless of Burkhead’s outlook, his game tape reveals a lot of NFL-caliber skill.

For analysis of skill players in this year’s draft class, download the 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio available April 1. Prepayment is available now. Better yet, if you’re a fantasy owner the 56-page Post-Draft Add-on comes with the 2013 RSP at no additional charge. Best, yet, 10 percent of every sale is donated to Darkness to Light to combat sexual abuse. You can purchase past editions of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio for just $9.95 apiece.

Futures: Duke QB Sean Renfree

0 Comments read Players
Manning quarterback-guru David Cutcliffe says Duke quarterback Sean Renfree is the steal of the draft. Find out why.
Manning quarterback-guru David Cutcliffe says Duke quarterback Sean Renfree is the steal of the draft. Find out why.

The steal of the draft. That’s what Duke head coach David Cutcliffe says about Blue Devils quarterback Sean Renfree, a 6-foot-3, 219-pound senior. Renfree is the latest in the line of Cutcliffe disciples that includes Peyton and Eli Manning. That list also has current NFL backup Thaddeus Lewis and former Jets reserve Erik Ainge — both well below the Manning tier where physical talent, quarterback technique, and on-field savvy intersect -– but prospects coaches still valued.

At this time of the year, coaches will often do public relations work for their players who have faded into the background of a crowded class of prospects. During his first year at Stanford, Jim Harbaugh showed scouts and media game tape of his former starting quarterback at the University of San Diego, Josh Johnson.

Cutcliffe did enough to promote Lewis’ stock at Duke that the St. Louis Rams invited the quarterback into camp in 2010, where the rookie impressed Pat Shurmur enough in the preseason that the coach took a chance on the former Blue Devils player in Cleveland. Lewis actually started the 2012 finale against Pittsburgh and delivered a 22-of-32, 204-yard performance, with one touchdown and one interception, in his first NFL regular season action.

So is Cutcliffe’s steal of the draft spin justified? Are Peter King and Mel Kiper hitching rides on a sleeper bandwagon headed for a steep cliff? Or is there gold on the horizon?

Renfree, who backed up Lewis, was the more highly-regarded quarterback in Durham. After earning the starting job as a sophomore, Renfree had three seasons with at least a 61-percent completion percentage, and two at 65 percent or above. Although Duke has an active short-passing game, there’s a lot to share that illustrates why the positive buzz has merit.

Cutcliffe’s offense is rooted in a pro style, and Renfree has experience with a variety of drops and fakes where he has to manipulate the defense with his eyes and body while delivering throws with anticipation and accuracy against pressure. Renfree and Tulane’s Ryan Griffin and Renfree are two examples of why I believe this 2013 quarterback class may lack star power at the top, but its middle and bottom tiers have more potential than the 2012 group.

Read the rest at Football Outsiders

Reads Listens Views 3/8/13

0 Comments read Reads Listens Views
If you think of me when you see these three players - among others - you don't need me to say any more. If you don't, perhaps its time to starting downloading the RSP publication every April 1.
.

If you think of me when you see these three players – among others – you don’t need me to say any more. If you don’t, perhaps its time to starting downloading the RSP publication every April 1 Based on eight years of experience, you’ll thank me later. But first . . . What is Reads Listens Views? If you’re new to the blog, every Friday I supply links to things I thought were worth a read about football and the world beyond it. I also provide videos of music I enjoy, football players from the past, and a variety of other topics.

Most of all, I take this day to say thank you and yes, remind you to get the 2013 RSP.

Listens I

[youtube=http://youtu.be/7JFjYzuXesw]

Thank You

Thanks to all of you who read the blog, follow me on Twitter, and purchase the Rookie Scouting Portfolio publication. Available for download every April 1 (no joke) for going on eight years, the RSP is an online .PDF publication devoted to the play-by-play study of NFL prospects at the offensive skill positions. The publication has a menu that bookmarks the document so you have two types of analysis. The first portion is a magazine-style, pre-draft analysis of 120-150 pages that includes position rankings, player comparisons, skill set analysis of each position, and sleepers.

The second portion is where I show all my work: between 700-800 pages of grading reports, play-by-play analysis of every player and game I watched, and a glossary that defines every criteria in my grading reports. My readers who want the bottom line love the first half of the book and appreciate the transparency of this section. My hardcore readers love the fact that they can dive as deep as they want into these raw play-by-play notes.

Included with the RSP (since 2012) is a post-draft document between 50-70 pages that comes out a week after the NFL Draft with updated post-draft rankings, tiers, team fit analysis, and fantasy cheat sheet with value analysis (Russell Wilson was calculated as the best value last year). Fantasy owners can’t get enough of it.

The RSP is $19.95 and I donate 10 percent of each sale to Darkness to Light, a non-profit dedicated to training individuals and communities on the prevention of sexual abuse. Past years of publications (2006-2012) are available for $9.95 and I also donate 10 percent of each sale to D2L. You can prepay for the 2013 RSP now.

RSPWP2 – What Is It? 

We’re nearly four rounds into the Second Annual Rookie Scouting Portfolio Writers Project. To follow along you can access the draft room any time and choose a team to read commentary on their selections.

One of the biggest questions I see about this project is What is the purpose? 

  • Build a winner this year?
  • Build a long-term winner?
  • Beat everyone else drafting?

The primary answer is we want discussion. Takes on players and how they fit into scheme. Interaction among some of the best people writing about football online in a variety of formats: news, strategy, advanced stats, and fantasy sports. Yes, fantasy sports writers have a rightful place at the table. I’ve had a lot of request for a grid format to view the draft picks. As we get into the middle rounds of the draft, we’ll make an Excel table available for download and update it periodically for your viewing pleasure.

Listens II

[youtube=http://youtu.be/HlnDHUjoQ_U]

Football Reads

Non-Football Reads

Views

[youtube=http://youtu.be/QPKKQnijnsM]

M.A.V. – Micro Air Vehicles  – As with all technology, the uses can be awe-inspiring and awful. The glass is half-empty for me on this one, folks.

Listens III

[youtube=http://youtu.be/WRbHXVZFe1w]

Futures: Arkansas RB Knile Davis

0 Comments read Players
Shonn Greene wouldn't be my player comp for Knile Davis, but I understand the reasoning. Photo by Matt Britt.
Shonn Greene wouldn’t be my player comp for Knile Davis, but I understand the reasoning. Photo by Matt Britt.

When I saw the 2012 Lewin Career Forecast, I had already studied Russell Wilson. In fact, I told a panel of draft analysts on a National Football Post podcast (beginning at the 17:42 mark) that included Josh Norris, Wes Bunting, and Josh Buchanan that Wilson was my sleeper quarterback in this draft. I was cynical that Wilson would be picked before the third round, but once Seattle opted for the N.C. State-Wisconsin quarterback, my immediate thought was that Wilson would be a pivotal test case against height bias in the NFL.

I think there’s another potential test case in the draft this year, but on the opposite end of the spectrum when it comes to the dilemma of prototypical skills vs. prototypical measurements. The lead actor in this draft-day drama could be Knile Davis. If an NFL team selects Davis in the first three rounds of this draft, it will be a telling indication that they relied more on Davis’ Combine performance –- and to some degree sabermetrics –- than the opinions of scouts and draft analysts who lean hard on the game tape.

Davis was an All-SEC selection in 2010, rushing for 1322 yards and scoring 13 touchdowns. In 2011, the Arkansas running back missed the season with a broken ankle. Davis underwhelmed in 2012, losing the starting job to reserve Dennis Johnson and only showing flashes of what he did in 2010.

Fast forward to the 2013 NFL Combine, and the 227-pound runner put on a show: a 4.37 40-yard dash and 31 reps on the bench press. It was an impressive performance that vaulted Davis atop Football Outsiders’ Speed Score metric for running backs. According to Danny Tuccitto, a Speed score below 80 is “a giant red flag,” a 100 Speed Score is “average,” and “anything above 120 serving as a giant neon sign.”

This makes Davis’ Speed Score, “off-the-charts good.” If you listen to Davis talk about NFL players of comparison, his self-perception is also top-notch. Andrew Gribble reports that Davis describes his style as on par with Arian Foster and Adrian Peterson.

If you ask me, Davis has some sort of dsymorphic disorder isolated to running backs and American Idol audition candidates. He has the idea that he performs differently than he does. Davis’ style is nowhere close to that of Foster or Peterson. When it comes to talent, if Davis is one of the top-ten runners in this class, then it’s a stretch to place him among the top seven in what is a deep class that lacks superstar talent at the top.

While I can’t be definitive about an exact ranking because I’m about two days away from the month-long task of compiling my 24 months of analysis into rankings this month, I can say that I have similar concerns as other writers (such as Rotoworld’s Evan Silva, NFL.com’s Josh Norris, and Bleacher Report’s Sigmund Bloom) who have studied Davis.

Foster and Peterson don’t come to mind when they watch Davis run. The running back mentioned most often among them was Shonn Greene.

Ouch.

Read the Rest Football Outsiders

RSP Writers Project No.2 (RSPWP2): Draft In Progress

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In fantasy football Adrian Peterson is a great player to build a team around. However if you had to build a real team from scratch with realistic fiscal constraints it's not as easy a decision. Photo by xoque.
In fantasy football Adrian Peterson is a great player to build a team around. However if you had to build a real team from scratch where would you take him in a draft like the RSPWP2? Photo by xoque.

The RSP Writers Project is a collection of football writers, analysts, and former scouts who participate in a now-annual event designed to share thoughts about pro football through an exercise. Last year we selected full rosters with salary caps and required each writer to develop a scheme on each side of the ball and even choose coaches.

This year, we’re holding a draft. You can find the Draft Room here. Each pick and its explanation – long or short – will be at the links embedded with each writer’s name. Will we draft a full team? That’s a goal, but the true goal is to spark discussion about player value to a franchise, picking for talent or scheme, etc.

If you want to keep up with it live go to Twitter and follow @RSPDraft2013

Reads Listens Views 3/1/2013

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I wish I was servin' this up, but the menu below is still pretty good. Photo by Joe Bryant.
I wish I was servin’ this up, but the menu below is still pretty good. Photo by Joe Bryant.

I’m serving it up once again at the RSP headquarters and I want to thank all of you for reading, following, and investing (see below) in the RSP blog. I’m about 6-8 players away from finishing film study and the 2013 RSP publication is on track for its April 1 publication date. If you are new to my blog, I post a Reads Listens Views article every Friday. It’s a little football, a little music, and a lot of things I want to share that are about world at large.

Thank you for making the RSP possible.

Listens I: Music to Read By – “Space Captain”

[youtube=http://youtu.be/QkzLatem0VY]

Football Reads

Listens II: Music to Watch Wide Receivers By – “Chatter”

[youtube=http://youtu.be/lxeqqBLR4zE]

I remember seeing Stern in Miami when I was 19 and he still kicks ass.  The tenor and drum solos got the most applause – deservedly so. If you like wild rides then is a good one.

Non-Football Reads

Listens III: Tedeschi Encore

[youtube=http://youtu.be/AIZ6beIGO9s]

Views: Six Reasons to Buy the 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio (No Order of Importance Needed) – You can pre-order now or buy April 1 when available for download.

  1. You’re Investing in the RSP Blog: Your purchase indicates this blog is worth reading. I can allocate time and resources into it and provide additional free analysis and host projects with great football writers.
  2. You Get Free, In-Depth Analysis of Players at the Blog That Few Discuss Until They Show Something in a Game: 
  3. Right or Wrong About Players, You See “My Math”:In the back of the RSP is hundreds of pages of grade sheets, play-by-play analysis, and a glossary that defines my grading criteria.
  4. Speaking of Dynasty Leagues . . . Here Are Some Noted “Values” From Past Publication Pre-Draft Fantasy Rankings
    • Randall Cobb No.3
    • Ahmad Bradshaw (No.4)
    • Ray Rice (No.2)
    • Matt Forte (No.5)
    • Joseph Addai (No.3)
    • Maurice Jones-Drew (No.5)
    • Steve Smith (NYG No.3)
    • Russell Wilson (No.4)
    • Demarco Murray (No.4)
    • Andre Roberts (No.5)
    • Eric Decker (No.6)
    • Aaron Hernandez (No.1)
    • Dennis Pitta (No.4)
  5. And Players I Thought Were Overvalued . . . 
    • Robert Meachem (No.14)
    • Tim Tebow (No.11)
    • Ted Ginn (N/R)
    • Matt Leinart (No.3)
    • Lendale White (No.6)
    • Darren McFadden (No.11) *Yes, too low perhaps – but has he been a consistent fantasy option?
    • Andrew Caldwell (No.12)
    • James Hardy (No.11)
  6. You Show Children That You Care About Protecting Them: After the Penn State Scandal, I decided to make it a long-term commitment of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio to donate 10 percent of every sale to Darkness to Light’s mission to end sexual abuse through community training and awareness.