Posts tagged NFL draft

Reads Listens Views 12/27/2013

0 Comments read Reads Listens Views

This week at RLV: Notes from the RSP Film Room, the Internet’s Dark Lord, Mister Rogers, and Classic Hip-Hop.

Views – 10 Mister Rogers Quotes For Bad Days

Mister-rogers-quote-4

Here’s the link to the rest.

Welcome

If you’re new to the Rookie Scouting Portfolio blog, welcome. Every Friday, I post links to things I’m checking out when I’m online. You may not like everything listed here, but you’re bound to like something. It’s also my chance to thank you for reading my work and encourage you to follow the RSP blog and buy the Rookie Scouting Portfolio publication.

For those of you new to the Rookie Scouting Portfolio, the publication is available every April 1. You can learn more about the RSP here. If you want to see samples of the play-by-play notes I take to write the analysis, you can find them here. And to download past versions of the publication (2006-2012), go here.

Remember, 10 percent of each sale is donated to Darkness to Light, a non-profit devoted to preventing and addressing sexual abuse through community training in schools, religious groups, and a variety of civic groups across the U.S. Here is what the RSP donated to D2L this year. According to D2L, the RSP’s 2013 donation amount was enough to train 250 adults in communities across the country.  I will have an announcement about the 2014 RSP in January. Stay tuned.

RSP Film Room Takes

Bishop Sankey is part of a class of mature runners who may not have flash, but run with substance. Photo by James Santelli.
Bishop Sankey is part of a class of mature runners who may not have flash, but run with substance. Photo by James Santelli.

The Christmas/New Years break gives me an opportunity to hole up in my office and go through marathon sessions of games. Here are some quick takes on players I’ve seen in recent days that you might find worthwhile. To see who else I’ve studied thus far for the 2014 publication available April 1, check out the running list.

Former Oregon tight end Colt Lyerla may not be the best athlete at the position in this class, but he has the best combination of all-around skills if you’re a team seeking a move tight end who can approximate what we saw from Aaron Hernandez in New England. He has the fluid athleticism of a large running back with H-Back skills. When I watch Lyerla play, I understand why there are teams willing to take a chance on him in light of what we’ve seen on and off the field with Hernandez. More than anything, I just want to see Lyerla change his life so he doesn’t waste it – football or no football.

Speaking of New England Patriots tight ends, UMass’ Rob Blanchflower has the dimensions of Rob Gronkowski. There’s going to be a lot of discussion about this tight end at the Senior Bowl because of his dimensions and enough fluid athleticism to exploit the seam. How well he catches the ball against tight coverage and imminent contact will enhance or derail those stylistic comparisons.

A project at the tight end position with some athletic upside is BYU’s Kaneakua Friel. He’s not ready for the NFL, but he has the raw tools to develop into a contributor in all phases of the game.

There’s a lot of underground draftnik love for Southern Mississippi receiver Francisco Llanos. I stumbled across comparisons to him and Victor Cruz. After studying multiple games, I understand the motivation to make that stylistic comparison, but I won’t be one of those writers linking the two players. Llanos has to improve his consistency as a pass catcher and I have questions about his playing speed. I don’t think he’ll be drafted.

In fact, if you’re seeking some underrated slot receiver candidates put Erik Lora near the top of my list. The Eastern Illinois receiver makes plays. As for less productive players in Llanos’ tier who I believe have as much or more to offer are Michigan’s Drew Dileo or BYU’s J.D. Falslev.  

The lesser known receiver enjoyed watching was Coastal Carolina receiver Matt Hazel. Fluid, athletic, and sure-handed.

Speaking of sure-handed, I enjoyed watching Arizona State running back Marion Grice. Between Grice, Bishop Sankey and Ka’Deem Carey, what this class lacks in overall flash, it compensates with maturity between the tackles. Grice is an excellent receiver with basic technique, strong effort, and good diagnostic skills as a pass protector. There are some plays that I think I see speed and acceleration from Grice that’s NFL-caliber and others where it seems absent. I look forward to seeing if I can get a better handle on it at the Senior Bowl.

In Case You Missed It/What’s Ahead at The RSP Blog

  • Boiler Room: CU WR Paul Richardson – See the anatomy of a sick catch.
  • Futures: TE Jace Amaro (Saturday)
  • Futures: DE Jadeveon Clowney – Why I don’t think “mailing it in” would have matter if that’s what Clowney did this year. And I don’t think he did.
  • Senior Bowl Reports (late January) – I decided to apply for media credentials as the RSP rather than do joint work with other groups. You’ll find most of my takes and practice reports here.

Listens

[youtube=http://youtu.be/hzfTqVSyLl8]

Reads (Football)

Reads (Non-Football)

Listens 

[youtube=http://youtu.be/Hs8a1mNEhRc]

The marimba solo after the statement of the melody is fantastic.

Views – The Root of The Problem

[youtube=http://youtu.be/pFYb4gKEFl4]

They money speaks louder than the words. Corporations may be filled with human beings, but they don’t behave as human beings. Until we recognize this difference, we’re stuck with our outrage.

Listens

[youtube=http://youtu.be/TKGnMSYbnJ0]

Rest in peace Yusef Lateef

Boiler Room: CU WR Paul Richardson

0 Comments read 2014 NFL Draft, Players, RSP Boiler Room Videos (Short Form), Wide Receiver
Colorado receiver Paul Richardson may need to add meat to his bones, but he can ball. Photo by Jeremy Kunz.
Colorado receiver Paul Richardson may need to add meat to his bones, but he can ball. Photo by Jeremy Kunz.

“Have you seen Paul Richardson yet?” You’re about to see why I’ve been asked this question by a follower multiple times since August.

Last week, I finally watched two games of the Colorado receiver and I get it, Richardson has flash to his game. You’ll see what I mean if you’ve never heard of the junior who has declared for the 2014 NFL Draft. I’m sold on his ability, but there is a lingering question I’ll have until he proves otherwise: Can Richardson get bigger?

Listed at 6-1, 170 lbs., Richardson doesn’t appear to have the frame to withstand punishment at the position. Anecdotal precedent brings to mind a former second-round pick of the Philadelphia Eagles in the 2000 NFL Draft who was known for his excellent hands and routes, but at 6-3, 180 lbs., Todd Pinkston was rail thin for an NFL receiver. And if I recall correctly, Pinkston wasn’t 180 until 2-3 years into his career.

Pinkston gave teammates and fans a hint of his skills throughout his five-year career, including a 60-catch, 798-yard, 7-score season in 2002. However, the Eagles’ receiver also had some well-publicized moments of alligator arms. It was an issue I don’t recall Pinkston having until he became an NFL veteran and I wouldn’t be surprised if it had to do with his skinny frame.

Adding weight is an obvious answer, but there are some individuals who have a difficult time adding it. I always wondered if Pinkston was one of them – he fit the body time. Richardson says he can get bigger, stronger, and faster when he enters the NFL. I hope he’s right, because he has the baseline skills and athleticism to develop into an NFL starter who can stretch defenses to its limit.

The Boiler Room is a series devoted to providing readers a glimpse of a prospect through a single highlight that encapsulates a great deal about a player’s skills. One play hardly ever tells the full story of a player, but if you watch enough of a prospect, you can get a feel for the plays that will do that player justice if you could only show one.

The Boiler Room is focused on prospects I expect to be drafted, and often before the fourth round. Richardson’s ability makes him a candidate to go this early, but the fact he’s a junior, missed much of his sophomore year, and others might also have concerns about his size, don’t make the early rounds a guarantee.

Richardson’s Play: Speed, Quickness, Concentration, and Hand-Eye Coordination

The play I chose highlights the base skills that makes Richardson one of the better college receivers in the country. It’s a 1st-and-10 catch for 28 yards with 0:52 in the first quarter. Richardson is the outside receiver on the left side of a 30 personnel pistol set. The cornerback plays a yard off the line of scrimmage and is shaded slightly inside. Based on the position of the safety, who is closer to the defensive end in his alignment well inside the left hash, this is single coverage for Richardson.

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ezRBYbkChgQ&start=131w=420&h=315]

Richardson’s release isn’t technically amazing, but it demonstrates a player with skills to build on. He takes two short steps off the line to the inside and then begins his burst outside. Richardson uses his inside arm to slip inside the defender’s body, gaining separation up the numbers and to the flat. By the time the Buffaloes receiver gets 13 yards down field, he has a full step on the defender. [Subsequent note: the defender is Ifo Ekpre-Olumu, one of the best cornerbacks in college football, and a personal favorite of mine]

Early separation will need to be a hallmark of Richardson’s game in the NFL even if he adds weight and gets stronger, because I’m skeptical he’ll gain more than 10-15 pounds of good weight. A player like Jordy Nelson or Anquan Boldin can bang with a corner while working down-field and win position late. It’s unlikely Richardson will ever be that kind of player. It means Richardson will need to demonstrate to a quarterback that he is a reliable route runner who can win the trust of his passer on plays that don’t appear wide-open early.

What’s most impressive about Richardson’s game is his skill as a pass catcher. The receiver is in full stride as the ball arrives, but the corner has Richardson’s inside arm pinned to Richardson’s side. Not does this move up the difficulty of the target, but it can distract a receiver from an attempt to make a play.

Not Richardson. The receiver extends for the ball with his outside arm, making a diving catch. He also manages to secure the ball with one arm before he lands and doesn’t lose security after rebounding off the turf.

It’s a beautiful play. It’s also what this play isn’t that concerns me. It isn’t a route into the teeth of the defense where there will be an impending hit from a safety or linebacker. Those situations will be the bellwether of Richardson’s role in the NFL: a contributor as a deep threat lacking that final dimension to thrive as an every-down starter or a primary threat capable of making plays anywhere on the field.

There are plenty of good receivers over the past 20 years who weighed less than 180 lbs. in the NFL, but most of them were in the height range of 5-8 to 5-10 and their frames were more compact. At 6-1, 170 lbs., I hope Richardson is right about getting bigger and stronger – he’s too much fun to watch not to see him play every down.

For analysis of skill players in this year’s draft class, download the 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio.The 2014 RSP will available April 1 and if you pre-order before February 10, you get a 10 percent discount. Better yet, if you’re a fantasy owner the 56-page Post-Draft Add-on comes with the 2012 – 2014 RSPs at no additional charge and available for download within a week after the NFL Draft. Best, yet, 10 percent of every sale is donated to Darkness to Light to combat sexual abuse. You can purchase past editions of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio for just $9.95 apiece.

Futures: South Carolina DE Jadeveon Clowney

0 Comments read 2014 NFL Draft, Players

[youtube=http://youtu.be/jrDGmnQXLgE]

Let’s presume for a moment that the claim Clowney “mailed it in” this year to protect his business interests is true. Does it matter? 

“That’s weird, a Michigan helmet just rolled into my room.”
– Grabhammer, YouTube (May 2013)

Nope. Not weird at all, Grabhammer. I saw the Wolverine football hardware on my street heading north sometime in early February. It was moving so fast the facemask got caught on the edge of a manhole cover and pried the thing loose like a can opener popping the cap on a Yuengling.

The good people of Tennessee say it caused an eight-car pileup on I-75; folks in Kentucky blamed it for rolling power outages; and in the report filed with the Coast Guard, a fisherman on Lake Erie mistook the helmet for the Loch Ness Monster. I’m just relieved to hear it finally came to a stop before anyone was seriously injured.

While none of us reporting these events have visual proof of this helmet’s odyssey – an improbable journey of three and one-quarter longitudinal laps around the earth that spanned approximately 74,945 miles before it rolled to a stop in Grabhammer’s man cave – scientists have a working theory of how it happened. They have traced its beginnings – the launch event – to January 1, 2013 in Tampa, Florida.

Launch Event. I couldn’t think of a better description of what happens to Michigan running back Vincent Smith and his helmet on this 1st-and-10 play with 8:22 left in the Outback Bowl against South Carolina.

The ESPN caption of the universally viewed YouTube clip I’m about to share reads “a rush for a loss of 8 yards.” It’s technically correct, but how does one classify what happens above as a “rush” if Smith never took a step with ball in his hands? “Rush attempt” is a more accurate description. After all, Michigan did at least try a running play. There are options I like more: Mugging. Ball jacking. Annihilation.

Yet there isn’t a better term to describe the play that sent this Michigan Wolverine helmet into a temporary orbit around the earth than the phrase “Launch Event.” The ignition for the world’s first momentum-powered land-based satellite is South Carolina defensive end Jadeveon Clowney. For those of you who just got out of solitary confinement, here is this proper introduction to the best prospect of the 2014 NFL Draft.

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gC44nP7ClxM&w=560&h=315]

Before scientists defined the travels of this maize and blue helmet as an orbit, fantasy football writer Ryan Boser artfully named this play the “Jacapitation.” Actually, he used the past verb tense “Jacapitated,” as in “Vincent Smith’s helmet, and any sense of bravado he once possessed as a big-time college football player, was Jacapitated from his head on the afternoon of January 1, 2013.”

Clowney is a game-changing talent. Kirk Herbstreit sums it up best when he says that Clowney is to the defensive end position what Calvin Johnson is to wide receiver.

Click here to read the rest at Football Outsiders

No Huddle Series: Missouri WR L’Damien Washington

0 Comments read 2014 NFL Draft, Players, Wide Receiver
L'Damien Washington has the build and athleticism of A.J. Green, but he needs to go to finishing school to model this NFL star's game. Photo by Wade Rackley
L’Damien Washington has the build and athleticism of A.J. Green, but he needs to go to finishing school to model this NFL star’s game. Photo by Wade Rackley

The 2014 installment of this series begins with a rough around the edges receiver with the physical talents of A.J. Green and Justin Hunter.

The No Huddle Series is an on-field profile of prospects with the talent to develop into NFL contributors, but they are projected as talents with mid-to-late round draft grades. The 2014 installment of this series begins with Missouri’s L’Damien Washington, a rough around the edges receiver with the physical talents of A.J. Green and Justin Hunter. In the neighborhood of 6’5″, 204 lbs. and a stopwatch speed in the 40 around 4.35-4.4, there’s more to Washington than his Underwear Olympics portfolio that catches my attention.

Washington plays with reckless abandon, contributes on special teams, and despite gaps with his catching technique, he has good hands. If I’m a part of an organization that believes in targeting high-upside players that it can teach the skills to play the position – and knows without reservation that its coaches have the track record of developing said raw lumps of clay – Washington is exactly the type of player I’m targeting.

Athletic Grace And Focus

This touchdown on 1st and goal with 6:30 in the third quarter against Texas A&M is one of the best catches I have seen in college football this year.

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kG-tShgiIL0&?start=346w=560&h=315]

It requires watching the replays to get a true feel for how good this catch on the corner fade is. The extension to high-point the ball and get a foot in bounds is impressive, but it’s garden-variety athleticism for a top prospect at the position. What I love is the concentration. Watch cornerback get his hand on the ball just as Washington begins to secure the ball after the initial catch at the high point of the target.

The receiver never loses focus despite the defender forcing Washington to fight to secure the ball. This is something Washington has to do while in mid-turn to shield the ball from his opponent. There are a lot of impressive facets of athleticism, focus, and toughness at play here. The full extension, the hand strength, the turn, the boundary awareness, and even the awareness to wrap the arm around the ball after his bound rebounds off the turf are all displays of skills integration that is difficult to teach. A coach might be able to teach a receiver to each of these things separately, but to layer them into one play and deal with a defender touching the ball at the most vulnerable point of the catch in the process of executing this play is impressive.

Washington’s willingness to lay out for the ball isn’t a one-time display. Here is a 3rd-and-six slant with 2:25 in the half where he faces a cornerback playing tight to the line of scrimmage.

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kG-tShgiIL0&start=123w=560&h=315]

The first thing I like about this play is the break on the route. Washington is not a refined route runner at this stage of his career. I often see him raise his pads too soon on releases, which tips off his break, and I don’t see an urgency to his releases that will force a defender to bail deep and set up shorter breaks.

Washington can learn these skills. The athleticism is there and this play reveals a hint of it. Watch him take two small steps up field and explode inside with a hard break. It’s a miniscule part of this quick route, but there’s intensity and precision to the move that he needs to incorporate into other routes.

As the ball arrives, Washington extends his body parallel to the ground and makes a diving catch towards the oncoming safety at the first down marker. Although he traps the ball to his body, his hands make contact with the ball first and he has no fear of contact from the defensive back over top. Once again, you can’t teach a willingness to put your body in harm’s way. It’s something Washington and Green have in common.

This 37-yard gain against man coverage in the Florida game is an example of a decent release that Washington needs to build on. It’s a 1st and 10 play with 8:45 in the third quarter as the single receiver in a 3×1, 10 personnel shotgun set.

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uIngLBgVge4&?start=292w=420&h=315]

Washington and his quarterback set up a subtle double move on this play. The quarterback takes his drop looking to the trips receiver side as Washington gives a quick shoulder fake to the inside and then accelerates up the sideline. Although it doesn’t seem like much, Washington’s fake is quick and thorough enough to momentarily freeze the defender and it gives the receiver a step.

I like how Washington uses his inside arm to frame and enforce this separation from the trailing defender. The receiver catches the ball over his inside shoulder and turns inside the numbers with a nice dip to avoid the safety. Although he doesn’t break the tackle of the trailing cornerback, he drags the defender another five yards and maintains a grip on the ball as the Florida Gator swats at it relentlessly. Three years from now, Washington probably has an additional 5-10 pounds of muscle that will make this tackle even more difficult for a cornerback to make.

Press-Release Technique

Washington is willing to use his hands against press coverage, but his technique needs more refinement. Right now, it appears as if he doesn’t have a grasp of the variety of moves he can use and when to use them. Here’s a play against Florida where he turns an out into a streak and the play ends with the ball bouncing off his chest near the end line. Although I’ll talk about the end of this play in more detail, the first thing I want you to see is the initial release.

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uIngLBgVge4&?start=190w=420&h=315]

Watch the replay and you’ll see where Washington’s problems begin. When the defender presents an obstacle during the release, Washington doesn’t use his inside arm to work through the defender. Instead, he uses his right arm to cross over and make contact. This type of move compromises a receiver’s balance, slows his stride, and has no real strength behind it.

I wouldn’t be at all surprised to find out that Washington is right-handed and this move is a product of him not having release techniques ingrained into his game. It’s a reaction to the defender and the result is an awkward move that has little impact. In fact, the way Washington earns initial separation is with his left arm as he makes the break outside. But by the time Washington achieves this distance the route is breaking open late, the quarterback is under pressure, and Washington now has to run another route to work open.

This is why it’s so important for a player to have refined technique. Washington is tall, strong, and fast, but if he has to think about what to do rather than have practiced methods that are second-nature reactions, it hinders the execution of a play.

The second half of the play is worth discussing in theory despite the fact that Washington steps on the boundary well before he reaches the end zone on this route adjustment and a penalty would have nullified any catch he could have made. What I don’t like about the end of his play is Washington’s attempt to catch the ball over his shoulder rather than turn back to the ball and make an aggressive attempt to snare the target. It’s possible the velocity of the throw was hard to gauge and Washington makes the wrong call based on this factor, but it’s also a passive attempt to “receive” the ball rather than fight to “catch” it.

When the ball arrives, Washington still has to open his inside shoulder to the trailing defender and this gives the defender a lane to break up the target. If Washington turns to face the ball and tries to highpoint it, he has a better shot on this play. This play isn’t a result of Washington fearing contact, just not having a feel for what to do on the play.

This route against Texas A&M is another demonstration of a talented athlete in need of better release technique. Washington is the single receiver at the right numbers with the cornerback playing tight and with a slight shade to the outside of the receiver on this 2nd and 10 at the A&M 47 with 1:56 in the half.

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kG-tShgiIL0&?start=116w=560&h=315]

Washington takes an outside release, but the corner presses the receiver drives Washington too far outside. There’s no chance Washington gets down field in time to make a play on this ball.  If the receiver dips his outside shoulder away from the source of the press and drives through his release with the acceleration he’s capable of using, his position will force the defender to relinquish contact or incur a penalty.

Another technique would have been to rip through the contact, but Washington unintentionally sustains the contact. The Missouri receiver is still playing with the mindset that he’s strong enough to push a defender off him with raw strength and hasn’t mastered how to use leverage. This is a college football mindset of a big-time athlete. He needs to learn a professional mindset of winning against opponents who are athletically on a more even playing field.

I for one believe Washington can learn these skills. If he does, he could become a star. I’m talking optimum scenarios here. I think a more reasonable expectation for Washington is for him to develop into a starter in 3-4 years and provide a team 40-60 catches, 600-800 yards, and 5-7 touchdowns as a secondary option that can stretch the field the same way a healthy Sidney Rice does in Seattle.

For analysis of skill players in this year’s draft class, download the 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio.The 2014 RSP will available April 1 and if you pre-order before February 10, you get a 10 percent discount. Better yet, if you’re a fantasy owner the 56-page Post-Draft Add-on comes with the 2012 – 2014 RSPs at no additional charge and available for download within a week after the NFL Draft. Best, yet, 10 percent of every sale is donated to Darkness to Light to combat sexual abuse. You can purchase past editions of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio for just $9.95 apiece.

Futures – Intuition and Process: FSU RB Karlos Williams

0 Comments read 2014 NFL Draft, Players, Running Back
Predictably, Peterson was the type of player that could trigger your intuition with one play. But there are many others who do the same. Photo by xoque.
Predictably, Peterson was the type of player that could trigger your intuition with one play. But there are many others who do the same. Photo by xoque.

Futures: FSU RB Karlos Williams

by Matt Waldman

People love the idea of being one step ahead of everyone else. It’s why the question, “Who is a player you like in next year’s draft?” is one of the most common I receive.

I spend so much time studying the prospects most likely to declare for this year’s draft that I’m not devoting in-depth analysis to next year’s guys. I get why people want to know and I respect the curiosity, but I dislike this question.

My work is about intuition and process. The longer I do this work, the more I believe in striving for a balance between listening to that inner voice and still honoring the value of a process.

Sometimes you know the first time you lay eyes on a person that there’s something special there. I knew it the first time I saw Alicia Johnson. After our first conversation, I had this feeling of absolute certainty that I just met my future wife.

It was a beautiful moment that was equally terrifying. And why wouldn’t it be? If you have any shred of logic in your being, the idea of knowing something as a fact without having conscious knowledge of the facts is unsettling no matter how many times it occurs during your life.

But there’s a difference between crazy and stupid, so I dated Alicia 13 months before proposing marriage. I needed to know that this “certainty” I was experiencing wouldn’t reveal itself as temporary infatuation. I wanted to make sure that flash of knowledge was illuminating the true dynamics of our relationship and not blinding it.

I may be crazy, but I try to avoid stupidity when at all possible. While I fail often in this regard, marrying Alicia was one of the smartest decisions I’ve made in my life. We have been married four years and the love and underlying certainty that I felt on that first day I met her has never wavered.

I share this Hallmark moment because there are occasions where I have felt that same jolt of certainty when watching football players. Although the implications of meeting the love of your life and identifying a talented college prospect are quite different, that feeling of certainty about a player despite limited exposure to his game is often unsettling. Read the rest at Football Outsiders.

Futures: Jared Abbrederis vs. Bradley Roby

0 Comments read 2014 NFL Draft, Players, Wide Receiver
Was Bradley Roby's performance against Jared Abbrederis (above) a case of rust or a that of a polished receiver winning his routes? Photo by Matt Radickal.
Was Bradley Roby’s performance against Jared Abbrederis (above) a case of rust or a that of a polished receiver winning his routes? Photo by Matt Radickal.

In the case of Bradley Roby vs. Jared Abbrederis was the outcome based on rust or polish? I’ll take polish. 

 

Futures: Jared Abbrederis vs. Bradley Roby

by Matt Waldman

Depending whom you ask, Ohio State cornerback Bradley Roby is one of the top three to five cornerbacks in the 2014 NFL Draft. Draftniks love the 5-foot-11, 193-pound Roby’s speed. CBS projects Roby as a second-round pick who could go higher depending on how close the Buckeye junior’s 40-yard dash time is to the range of 4.35-4.4 seconds.

Although I don’t create rankings until I’ve studied all the skill players I’m going to watch, I wouldn’t be surprised if Wisconsin wide receiver Jared Abbrederis is among the top-15 receivers on my list. CBS projects Abbrederis to be drafted in the second or third-round. Considering that between 2006 and 2013 an average of 32 receivers were taken in the draft – 14 in the first three rounds – that projection has some basis of logic.

However, when Abbrederis, a former walk-on, got the better of Roby this year, I think the resulting analysis from CBS’ draftnik team of Roby had a minor, but important disconnect in logic. Before I go any further, let me say that I have a great deal of respect for Rob Rang and Dane Brugler. They cover a ton of players and do a fantastic job.

My disagreement with one of Rang’s views concerns Roby’s work against Abbrederis this year. Rang attributes the corner’s performance against the receiver to rust:

After sitting out the season opener due to a suspension, the Buckeyes junior showed some rust early in 2013 and struggled mightily against Wisconsin wide receiver Jared Abbrederis, but there is a lot to love about Roby’s game. That includes his speed and fighting attitude, but he needs to stay alert for all four quarters to convince NFL teams he’s worthy of a high first-round grade.

Roby missed one game. Rust shouldn’t be a problem. Rang and his team have Abbrederis ranked 11th on their list of receivers and believe he’s a second or third-round pick. They have Roby as a second-round pick.

If two players with second-round grades square off and one gets the better of the other do you presume that the other lost due to rust? I don’t. I’d only believe rust was a factor if I think the losing player is a much better prospect.

Even if Rang personally has Roby as a high first-round pick and Abbrederis as a third-round pick, is there really that much of a difference that Roby should have shut down the Wisconsin receiver? Only if the phrase “walk-on” still hangs in your subconscious when thinking about Abbrederis.

I have long maintained that there isn’t much of a difference between many first-round talents and undrafted free agents. The perception of players generates a far greater gap among them than reality – especially when the public reads thousands of articles that reinforce a faulty perception like Russell Wilson is too small to become an NFL starter, much less a good one.

While many will expect that Roby will only get better with his technique and this warrants him a higher grade –myself included – is this really a good expectation?

Read the rest at Football Outsiders

LSU WR Jarvis Landry: The Gap Between Mundane and Extraordinary

0 Comments read 2014 NFL Draft, Players, Wide Receiver
Landry makes some awe-inspiring plays, but it's the mundane that he must execute to become a consistent NFL player.
Landry makes some awe-inspiring plays, but it’s the mundane that he must execute to become a consistent NFL player.

Tall, fast, and skilled with the ball in his hands, Jarvis Landry has the physical skills that excites fans and college beat writers about his NFL potential. The LSU receiver is capable of breaking a big play at any moment. Add a quarterback with Zach Mettenberger’s NFL arm strength and the needle on the hype meter kicks into the red.

[youtube=http://youtu.be/-AFSlju1-PQ]

There’s talk that Landry may leave LSU a year early for the NFL draft. It’s a smart, short-term business decision if LSU lacks passing talent behind Mettenberger to showcase Landry’s talent as a senior. However, Landry might do his NFL career a greater service if LSU has the quarterback talent for him to wait a year and refine his skills in Cam Cameron’s offensive system. Quarterback Anthony Jennings might qualify as that type of talent, but Landry might be thinking that a change of quarterbacks as a senior is a risk to his draft status that he doesn’t want to consider if he already earns a strong enough grade from the NFL Draft Advisory Board as a junior.

Landry has a number of fine plays that illustrate his positives. Today’s post is a more critical statement about details and effort. Based on what I’ve seen thus far, Landry doesn’t have any greater issue with these attributes than the average NFL prospect. However, I found two plays against Alabama that could have changed the complexion of this pivotal SEC match-up if Landry showed a different mindset. 

Make Every Play Count Because You Don’t Know What Will Happen Next

The cliché “Live every day like it’s your last” could easily be “Make every play like it’s your last” because in this game it could be. I’m not just talking about injury. Whether you throw, catch, carry, snap, kick, or tip it, the shape of the football bedevils everyone.

Here’s a 1st-and-goal run with 9:02 in the first quarter where Landry slants inside to block the Alabama safety. It looks like a decent effort from Landry, but upon further review Landry’s block is the difference between average and good. It’s a play that also has a consequence that might have been avoided.

[youtube=http://youtu.be/sTQ2boEg0LA]

Watch the play on first blush and Landry could earn the characterization as “physical” for throwing his shoulder at the safety. However, it’s not a smart decision. Instead of using his hands to deliver a punch, Landry aims his shoulder into the defender. Although the receiver succeeds with landing the hit on the defender it lacks control, leverage, and technique to sustain contact.

When Landry meets the defender with his shoulder, he’s hitting a defender with equally low pad level and a downhill angle towards the ball carrier. Landry’s hit from an indirect angle bounces off the defender, who isn’t moved off his spot. The defender then makes the tackle on the backing passing through the crease.

If Landry delivers a punch and locks on his hands, he had a better chance to drive the defender away from the crease and the runner has more unimpeded room to run. There’s room for the runner to dip inside his guard’s second level block at the three to earn the score. If not inside the guard, a better block of the safety gives the runner room to make No.13 miss or run through the defender’s hit inside the five.

Landry’s choice of play is the difference between a five-yard gain and a potential touchdown.

Big deal, right? He’s just a receiver. The best teams emphasize these details and expect the highest levels of execution. Mediocre and bad teams often have personnel with the same eye-popping level of talent and skill, but the team is filled with players who don’t perform with consistency of detail and preparation.

This play and these thoughts about execution underscore the belief that we often create our own luck. Landry’s block helps his runner gain five yards, but prevented his runner a chance at reaching the end zone. On the next play, Alabama strips the runner inside the three and recovers the fumble.

Landry doesn’t deserve blame for the runner’s fumble, but his lack of detail – in this case using the optimal technique on the play before – contributes to the next play even happening.  It’s why coaches and players often respond to questions about a pivotal play that dashes any final hopes for a victory that it wasn’t one play that lost the game.

Sell the Mundane to Create the Extraordinary – A Lesson For Route Runners

Speaking of pivotal plays at the end of the game, Landry is the target of one on 4th and 13 with 9:17 in the fourth quarter from a 1×3 10 personnel shotgun set. The middle receiver on the trips side of this play, Landry runs a wheel route, which is essentially and out-and-up to the sideline, tricking the defender into taking a hard angle downhill towards the flat and then turning the play up the boundary on a vertical break.

Once again, on first blush it appears quarterback Zach Mettenberger overthrew Landry in the end zone. At the same time, the CB does a great job of edging Landry towards the sideline and making it difficult for the WR to earn separation down field on the break down hill. However, watch the replay that follows this real-time action below. 

[youtube=http://youtu.be/o0mSDMrrBSA]

Upon review, Landry creates many of his own problems. In fact, the throw is much more accurate than it appears. The issue is Landry’s initial move.  Landry’s first break to the flat is so unconvincing that the defender is anticipating the wheel route from start to finish.

If Landry snapped his turn to the flat after his initial release from the line of scrimmage, turned his head and pads towards the quarterback, dipped his route towards the line of scrimmage to sell the flat route, the Alabama defensive back has no choice but to break towards the receiver.

Landry does none of these things and it allows the corner to maintain good depth while working towards the boundary. When Landry breaks to the sideline, the defender squeezes the receiver tight to the boundary and gives the wide receiver no wiggle room to adjust unless he gives up outside position, dips inside the corner back, and loses pace on a timing throw heading towards the end zone. 

Landry is a good prospect, but these two plays – one in the first half and one in the fourth quarter – embody what happens when you don’t execute at the highest level of detail possible.

For analysis of skill players in this year’s draft class, download the 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio available now. Better yet, if you’re a fantasy owner the 56-page Post-Draft Add-on comes with the 2013 RSP at no additional charge and available for download within a week after the NFL Draft. Best, yet, 10 percent of every sale is donated to Darkness to Light to combat sexual abuse. You can purchase past editions of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio for just $9.95 apiece.

Boiler Room: Michigan WR Jeremy Gallon

0 Comments read 2014 NFL Draft, RSP Boiler Room Videos (Short Form), Wide Receiver
Can Jeremy Gallon follow in the footsteps of Steve Smith? Similar dimensions, but big shoes . . . Photo by PDA Photo
Can Jeremy Gallon follow in the footsteps of Steve Smith? Similar dimensions, but big shoes . . . Photo by PDA Photo

Footballguys.com Bob Henry is one of the best fantasy writers I know and someone I’m thankful to have as a friend of mine. We became fast friends after sharing our love for the old AFC Central; Funk, Soul, and R&B music; and all the varieties of Asian cuisine.

Bob – a huge Michigan fan – is my unofficial area scout for the Big Ten. At points throughout the season, he sends me word of players he likes and we compare notes in January. One of his mentions this year is Wolverine receiver Jeremy Gallon – a player whose style he likened to Carolina Panthers  leader Steve Smith.

Listed at 5’8″, 183 lbs., Gallon matches Smith’s physical dimensions, but he has a stretch of road ahead of him as difficult as Russia’s Trans-Siberian Highway if he hopes to be mentioned in the same breath as the 13-year NFL veteran. Still, I think Gallon plays bigger than his size and has a flair for the dramatic on the field.

A series that I started last spring at the RSP blog is The Boiler Room. One of the challenges involved with player analysis is to be succinct with delivering the goods. As the author of an annual tome, I’m often a spectacular failure in this respect.

Even so, I will study a prospect and see a play unfold that does a great job of encapsulating that player’s skills. When I witness these moments, I try to imagine if I would include this play as part of a cut-up of highlights for a draft show at a major network or if I was working for an NFL organization creating cut-ups for a personnel director. Unlike the No-Huddle Series, The Boiler Room is focused on prospects I expect to be drafted, and often before the fourth round.

It’s incredibly difficult to boil down any player with just one play. Yet, if I need a play to add to the highlight reel that will help a team make a decision where to slot Jeremy Gallon on its board, this 62-yard touchdown is my nomination. This is a 1st-and-10 with 6:00 in the first quarter from a 12 personnel weak side twin receiver set. Gallon is at the right hash stacked behind his teammate. Notre Dame has one safety deep on this play.

[youtube=http://youtu.be/deiN203Dx1s]

Gallon runs up the right hash on a seam route and then sits in the middle of a wide open zone 15 yards past the line of scrimmage. He catches the ball close to his body and turns inside the hash with the nearest defender five yards behind him. The next closest defender to Gallon is 10 yards over top and outside the right hash.

Gallon gains 10 yards up the middle through a huge hole, jukes outside the defender at the left hash and then stumbles towards the safety over top just as the defender he juked outside wraps the receiver at the waist. Here’s where Gallon displays the kind of balance that hints at Steve Smith’s game. He spins inside the safety, shakes the defender wrapping him, and then makes the safety miss all at the same time. The Wolverines receiver then dips inside a second safety.

Within a snap of the fingers, Gallon has beaten three defenders and regains his balance as he runs towards the right hash. By the time he accelerates past a fourth defender, Gallon is in the clear for the final 20 yards to the end zone.

Gallon runs like a kick return specialist and this is a job he can compete for immediately in the NFL. The receiver displays a strong downhill mentality in the open field and doesn’t waste motion or slow his pace trying to make defenders miss like so many quick-twitch, agile receivers. His move to avoid three defenders was not a display of power; it was excellent balance to maintain his footing,  spin through contact to limit the impact, and terrific protection of the football under his left arm.

We know he has the athleticism to get deep in single coverage, but I like that Gallon is so quick to find the open zone in the middle of the field. He may never become Steve Smith, but if he can demonstrate the smarts to match his toughness and athleticism, he might become a dynamite NFL slot receiver in a league. At worst, I think he’s a more explosive player in the mold of Harry Douglas or Doug Baldwin.

For analysis of skill players in this year’s draft class, download the 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio available now. Better yet, if you’re a fantasy owner the 56-page Post-Draft Add-on comes with the 2013 RSP at no additional charge and available for download within a week after the NFL Draft. Best, yet, 10 percent of every sale is donated to Darkness to Light to combat sexual abuse. You can purchase past editions of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio for just $9.95 apiece.

Reads Listens Views 11/23/2013

0 Comments read Reads Listens Views
The RSP is to draft analysis as Matt Forte is to NFL running backs - versatile, underrated, and appreciated by those in the know. Photo by John Martinez Pavliga.
The RSP is to draft analysis as Matt Forte is to NFL running backs – versatile, underrated, and appreciated by those in the know. Photo by John Martinez Pavliga.

Thanks: 

New to the Rookie Scouting Portfolio blog? Once a week I post links to all kinds of content I’m checking out. You may not like everything here, but if you like at least one link then I’ve done my job. If you don’t like anything I post here ever, then I can’t help you. But seriously, thank you for following the RSP blog. It’s my way of giving you a preview of the type of detail and insight that you can expect from my annual publication devoted to analysis of skill position prospects.

Available every April 1, the RSP is part online draft magazine filled with rankings, draft trends analysis, position-specific skill breakdowns for every player , overrated/underrated, and multi-dimensional player comparisons that actually make sense. And if that’s not enough for you, I show my work. I include every grading checklist and play-by-play note I take on the prospects I study for this publication and provide a glossary that defines my grading system and the criteria that I used to rate players.

All though the 120-200 pages of the draft magazine is sufficient for most, the reports make the RSP well over 1000 pages of information. It makes the RSP an excellent long-term resource to use when those third and fourth-year players “come out of nowhere” and begin to make their mark with an NFL roster or if you simply want to learn more about the game.

Since the RSP has a comprehensive set of embedded bookmarks, the publication is easy to navigate and has the feel of a magazine, but the insight of a reference book you’ll refer to long after the draft.

Plus, I provide a post-draft update the week after the draft that includes rankings weighted more to current team fit, early fantasy average draft values, fantasy value analysis based on draft data and my rankings, and a comprehensive fantasy cheat sheet. Most of my readers say this is worth the price of the RSP alone.

Download this year’s Rookie Scouting Portfolio for $19.95 or past publications (2006-2012) for $9.95. I donate 10 percent of every sale to Darkness to Light, a non-profit that provides community training to prevent and address sexual abuse so our society can do a better job of handling – and hopefully preventing – what happened at institutions like Penn State, because it’s not just a problem isolated in Happy Valley.

If you enjoy this blog , want to learn more about the game, earn an advantage in your fantasy leagues, and want to give a little back to society while supporting the efforts of someone who is doing the work so you don’t have to, download the RSP. I’m confident you’ll discover that the value exceeds the hype, which I know is not common these days.

Listens – The Dark Sorcerer of Piano With a Great Band

[youtube=http://youtu.be/PloycJeavQY]

Herbie Hancock, Al Foster, Buster Williams, and Greg Osby playing Wayne Shorter’s excellent composition Footprints. Hancock is the master of creating musical moods that are soundtracks for the imagination. As far as drummers go, I’m a huge fan of Al Foster because he’s responsiveness and interaction with his fellow musicians is fantastic. Just a suggestion for those of you seeking a different way to spend quality time with someone you love:

Clear a space in the middle of a room in front of a TV and pile it with cushions and pillows or even a mattress dragged into the room loaded with pillows and blankets. Turn the TV onto one of those channels that films exotic locales or hook up your computer to your wide-screen and run a slide show filled with hundreds of photos of sights and nature (see below) from around the world and put on some music without lyrics. It could be Herbie, classical music, house music, whatever will give you and your special someone a quiet visual-aural adventure of the imagination.

Here’s some more Herbie Hancock with Michael Brecker. If my wife and I decide to have more children and we have a son, “Brecker” is on the short list of names.

[youtube=http://youtu.be/LoyyQMWpCfg]

And one more that I’d find just right with the vibe below . . .

[youtube=http://youtu.be/L9eW6V_Slgs]

Views – National Geographic Photo Contest 2013

Non-Football Reads

Football Reads

Listens: The Mix – Northern Soul Radio

 Coming Soon at the RSP

  • Later today: A Futures on DB Lamarcus Joyner  (what a fun player to watch).
  • Borrowing an insight from Lance Zierlein about J.J. Watt and illustrating it with photos.
  • Analysis of Michiagn WR Jeremy Gallon.
  • Perhaps a look at FSU RB Devonta Freeman.

Futures at Football Outsiders: OK St. CB Justin Gilbert

0 Comments read 2014 NFL Draft, Players
Justin Gilbert has always been a talented athlete, but he has demonstrated technical improvement that is upping his draft stock. Photo by KT King.
Justin Gilbert has always been a talented athlete, but he has demonstrated technical improvement that is upping his draft stock. Photo by KT King.

He could be good, but he could be bad. It could be said about every player transitioning from college football to the NFL. When reading scouting reports and draft day analysis, it can seem like this is the basic assessment of every prospect.

Most Internet scouting reports aren’t written with the purpose of the analyst hedging his bets. The intent is to cover the full spectrum of a player’s strengths and weaknesses. But if not careful, the overall product appears wishy-washy.

In all fairness, every year there are prospects that merit this kind of “he could be good, but he could be bad” analysis. It’s understandable when considering the context of the times. The size of the NFL draft is smaller than any time in the modern era of football. Physical talent is better and the concentration of that athleticism is often as good at the top of the draft as it is at the bottom. It’s why we read about undrafted free agents who at one time were considered first-day prospects.

Rookie receiver Da’Rick Rogers -– a street free agent who tried out with the Buffalo Bills this summer and got cut -– is on the cusp of earning significant playing time this month for the Colts. With a playing style that reminded me a lot of Dwayne Bowe but with greater short area agility, there was a time Rogers was every bit the prospect – if not better – than his fellow Tennessee Volunteers matriculates. It’s a list that includes the likes of Justin Hunter, Denarius Moore, and Kenbrell Thompkins (although Thompkins never played a down in orange and white, opting out when Lane Kiffin left campus). It was Rogers’ off-field behavior that put him on outside looking in when the NFL held it’s annual “April Rush.”

Entering the 2013 season, Oklahoma State cornerback Justin Gilbert also had a wish-washy scouting report despite an on-field game that was brimming with confidence. Gilbert has first-day athleticism and versatility, but junior year lapses with technique and judgment made him the type of player who elicited a wide range of draft day possibilities before his senior year.

Read the rest at Football Outsiders