Posts tagged NFL draft

Flashes: QB Chase Rettig, Boston College

Chase Rettig isn't Kurt Warner, but was Kurt Warner, "Kurt Warner" as a first-year starter as a senior at Northern Iowa. Photo by Photogeek21
Chase Rettig isn’t Kurt Warner, but was Kurt Warner, “Kurt Warner” as a first-year starter as a senior at Northern Iowa? Photo by Photogeek21

Playing quarterback at a high level requires a pairing of skill sets that at times seem paradoxical. Intense preparation and freewheeling improvisational skill. Finesse and grit. Control and abandon. An elephantine memory and selective amnesia.

It’s why it’s the toughest position to evaluate. Kurt Warner sat on the bench at Northern Iowa for three years. The fourth year, he was the Gateway Conference’s Offensive Player of the Year.  We know the rest of the story. Johnny Unitas was cut by the Pittsburgh Steelers. Brett Favre might have drunk himself into a stupor if he stayed in Atlanta where then-Falcons’ head coach Jerry Glanville promised the only way Favre would get onto the field was a plane crash.

I wouldn’t bet my pocket change that Boston College senior Chase Rettig becomes a quality starter in the NFL. There are way too many factors to consider to draw a conclusion at this point. Yet there are qualities to his game that I like a lot that give him potential as a pocket passer. And yes, there are still pocket passers thriving in the NFL.

Rettig has played since his freshman year at Boston College and has the dubious distinction of working with five offensive coordinators in three years. Browns journeyman backup Jason Campbell can relate – and not just from his days with the Redskins. He had multiple offensive systems during his Auburn career.

Most don’t project Chase Rettig as a draft-worthy quarterback heading into the 2013 college season. However, Rettig plays well enough to earn consideration in early May even if his team continues its underwhelming play.

Arm Strength

[youtube=http://youtu.be/iPECd046PSU]

This is a 3rd-and-10 pass to his receiver, Alex Amidon on a deep out. Rettig faces Miami’s defense of freshmen and sophomores at the BC 32 versus a defense with two safeties high. This appears to be a Cover 2 look, especially as we see the pass arrive between two defenders. Rettig begins the play with a three-step drop, takes a hitch step to buy time, and then climbs the pocket away from the pressure coming from the edges.

The movement  has precision and Rettig maintains enough balance and position to deliver this deep out from the BC 25 to Amidon at the UM 47 just outside the numbers of the right flat and between the safety and linebacker. The fact he has to climb the pocket and still hits the receiver on time with good placement at helmet level is another indication that Rettig has fundamentally sound technique and a strong enough arm for NFL teams to work with.

Precision and Finesse

[youtube=http://youtu.be/jdbobFeTsNs]

Rettig’s execution on this 1st-and-10 pass with 4:30 in the half at the UM 23 from a 1×2 receiver, 11 personnel set is a fine demonstration of precision on a few levels. He faces two safeties deep and a 4-3 front with man coverage on the outside. Rettig extends his arm on the play fake to the RB before finishing a five step drop and this forces the Miami linebackers to attend to the prospect of the run. Rettig finishes his drop and delivers a nice seam route behind the linebacker and safety after his back foot hits the ground.

Although the ball goes through the tight end’s arms, I thought it was a good display of touch and placement. The tight end was late to get his hands up and the receiver wasn’t precise with his hand placement. Target a starting tight end – or several backups – in the NFL and this is a touchdown.

Eye Discipline and Footwork

[youtube=http://youtu.be/Ou2u_5JIomw]

This six-yard completion with 12:42 in the third quarter doesn’t seem like much of a play, but there are some nice things happening here. Rettig’s receiver Amidon is the outside twin receiver outside the numbers. Rettig executes a play-action fake to the running back, hitches twice, and finds his receiver breaking back to the passer on the hook.

Going a little deeper, this throw is placed in a tight zone in a window optimal for the receiver. Rettig once again displays nice footwork to climb the pocket away from outside pressure and keep his eyes down field. Moreover, Rettig sets this up by beginning his drop with a long enough look to the middle of the field, which holds the linebackers in place and opens this zone for Amidon to work underneath.

Under Pressure

[youtube=http://youtu.be/5-uMbIslftA]

Here’s another small gain, but a nice play on a 3rd-and-four. Rettig’s target is Amidon, the receiver at the top of the screen. UM plays two safeties deep and rushes four. As you can see thus far, when Rettig has time to get that back foot into the ground he flashes arm strength and sometimes hyper-accuracy.

On this play, Rettig doesn’t get that time. Miami earns inside penetration off each tackle. Rettig looks to the middle, slides to the left, and makes a nice throw off his back foot with enough velocity to hit the receiver crossing from outside-inside into decent coverage. The receiver gets the first down and Rettig takes a hit after making the throw.

While the true test of a passer with physical gifts is to deliver a ball on-target and off-balance in the middle zone, this short-zone throw is still notable.

Awareness and Feel

[youtube=http://youtu.be/v8DXxz8q0nY]

Although this play doesn’t end well for the Eagles, Rettig placed the team in great position for a big-play on this 1st-and-10 with 12:32 in the game. Miami plays a single-high safety and decides to begin sending more than four men into the pocket. This is the first of several five-man pressure packages that come in the fourth quarter and they fail to sack Rettig once.

The play was designed for Rettig to find one of three receivers flooding the various zones on the left side of the field after a play-action boot in that direction. However, the safety forces the action early with his blitz. Rettig has a good feel for the location of his running back working the right flat on a bullet route as the backside receiver and is agile enough to pivot right and make an accurate throw with the defender in his face for a big gain that ends with a turnover.

While there’s nothing but good shown here, there are some things to note by nature of their absence.  Rettig never threw the ball away in this game and considering he is known for holding onto the ball too long and taking sacks, there was nothing in this game to dispel this behavior. Rettig also has a high touchdown-to-interception total. The BC quarterback tossed an interception in this game where he didn’t read the underneath coverage on a slant and he attempted a number of tight-window throws.

I’m more concerned about the mix of aggression and discipline with interceptions than holding onto the ball too long. If Rettig can actually play in the same offensive system for a few years, this tendency could diminish over time. However, high interceptions rates also a result of a team playing from behind and forcing a quarterback to take risks. I saw several of these attempts at the end of this game where the quarterback might have had smarter choices, but not the time left in the contest to act with care.

For analysis of skill players in this year’s draft class, download the 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio.The 2014 RSP will available April 1 and if you pre-order before February 10, you get a 10 percent discount. Better yet, if you’re a fantasy owner the 56-page Post-Draft Add-on comes with the 2012 – 2014 RSPs at no additional charge and available for download within a week after the NFL Draft. Best, yet, 10 percent of every sale is donated to Darkness to Light to combat sexual abuse. You can purchase past editions of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio for just $9.95 apiece.

Reads Listens Views 8/16/2013

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The Rookie Scouting Portfolio blog has gained enough of a following that I’ve learned there are folks who come here and don’t realize that – oh by the way –  I also write for Footballguys.com. If you play fantasy football and you haven’t checked out our draft app, you can see more from Cory Jones at Mandatory.com.

Thanks

My summer schedule has been whack since . . . well, spring. I have a final push of Footballguys.com assignments I want to finish this weekend and next and you’ll begin to see more substantive football content about the 2014 college class, goings-on in the NFL, and perhaps more experiments with podcasts.

If you’re new to the blog, Friday is when I post links to content from around the web. I also thank you for visiting and encourage you to do yourself a favor and buy the 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio. This is a pre-draft and post-draft publication devoted to the rookies at the skill positions. Here’s information to learn more:

If you just need the basic facts, here they are: It’s the most comprehensive work you’ll find of its kind. You get over 1300 pages of material that’s well-organized and in-depth for $19.95 (past issues from 2006-2012 are $9.95). And 10 percent of each sale is donated to the organization Darkness to Light to help them fight sexual abuse.  You can download the RSP here.

Random Football Thoughts

  • I’m not concerned about Josh Gordon. He makes football look easy. He always has. It’s a quality that I remember seeing from Randy Moss. I will gladly take Gordon in fantasy drafts and wait three weeks for him to return.  
  • Broncos running back C.J. Anderson, an undrafted rookie free agent from Cal, injured his knee just as he was earning second-team reps in practice and will miss six weeks. Anderson has the ability to develop into a contributor in a starting lineup. He’s excellent at making the first defender miss, has quick feet, and finishes strong. This injury may ruin his momentum to cut into Montee Ball’s reps, but I think he makes the team and if he keeps working at his craft I wouldn’t be surprised if he clouds the Broncos’ running back picture in 2014.
  • Bears rookie lineman Kyle Long looked terrific against the Chargers. He and Jermon Bushrod are two big reasons why I continue to be bullish on Matt Forte this year.
  • About three months ago I was on the Thursday Night Audible talking about players to watch during the preseason who you won’t normally see when the regular season begins. One of the players I mentioned – over the “don’t do it” chants from Bloom and Lammey – was Falcons tight end Chase Coffman. All three of us like Coffman at Missouri but at the time the Bengals drafted him, Coffman was gangling athlete. However, last year I got to see Coffman on the field in Atlanta and he looked to have gained enough muscle that he was able to move around the field with a level of athletic grace I had not seen from him before. He looked like a different player in this respect. What was the same was his excellent hands and skill in zone coverage. Remember Coffman this year, because he has earned his share of first-team reps in the preseason and has looked solid. If Tony Gonzalez gets hurt, Coffman has the hands to contribute as a zone receiver. Fantasy owners, think Dennis Pitta in style but not the high-end production.

Listens 

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nOz4qMZLW-U&feature=share&list=PLX1Nx57UJgZklFIdjOTGR0wdc3n-c417Y]

Stevie Ray Vaughan used to sit in with Albert King as a kid and if you couldn’t tell by King’s playing, Vaughan cited King as a major influence.

Football Reads

Views

I saved this for over a week. Since then, my friend Joe Bryant posted it on his blog, but it’s such an important thing to watch that I’m hoping I catch some of you who saw it, but didn’t bother to look.  As someone whose care was rear-ended four times in one month and at least two of them were clearly due to people texting, I urge you to watch.

[youtube=http://youtu.be/_BqFkRwdFZ0]

Listens II – Tinariwen

[youtube=http://youtu.be/r0AyA6-rKf8]

You can hear the blues in this, too.

Non-Football Reads

Views II

[youtube=http://youtu.be/zuBSRC1zpHw]

I like this video because in less than five minutes, Kutcher does his best to be real about work, pop culture, and self-worth.

2013 RSP Excerpt and Sample: Seattle RB Christine Michael

Is Michael this class' Ben Tate with more talent? Photo by SD Dirk.
Is Michael this class’ Ben Tate with more talent? Photo by SD Dirk.

I heard a TV commentator compare Michael to Ahman Green and attribute that comparison to former A&M coach Mike Sherman. The comparison is dead-on.

Michael has a strong burst, good finishing strength, nice pad level, and quick feet to make sharp cuts. I think he flashes some skill at the cutback while still having the maturity to take what his blockers give him – even when the creases are small.

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l52K5QZ2OEw?start=27&w=560&h=315]

Note the pad level and strength on this run above. There are three different angles to view it (ends at 0:46).  I love how hard he hits the crease and this combination of speed and pad level makes him scary to bring down at the second level, because he’ll bounce off hits or use his array of moves in combination to turn a 10-yard gain into a 50-yard jaunt.

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LCVqxFeWFoU?start=177&w=560&h=315]

The lateral cut Michael executes at the left hash after telling the linebacker a bedtime story that featured his stiff arm four yards earlier is a thing of beauty. Moreover, the speed to cross the opposite hash and outrun a fine angle by the defender back to score on this play is a great display of speed and stamina to turn on the afterburners. He did a fair bit of work early in the play and still had the gas to cross the field and outrun two angles for a long score. Impressive stuff.

I have no doubt that Michael has the physical skills to be a lead back in a pro offense and a terrific one at that.

Like Green, Michael generally carries the ball under the same arm on running plays regardless of his position on the field – his right. He sometimes tries too hard in the open field to make that extra cut or move to avoid down-field defenders rather than maintain a straight path and finish strong. He loses more yards with some of these decisions than he would if he forced the defender to bring him down while he was at full speed.

At the same time, I have seen Michael look great in the open field against Arkansas, Mississippi, and Auburn. he doesn’t always run with his eyes as much as he should and this reduces his effectiveness because he’s not setting up moves as much as he’s focusing on one move at a time.

A real positive about Michael’s game is his pass protection. He keeps his head up and uses his hands well enough to punch defenders. He gets good position before delivering blocks and he flashed good skill both in stand up and cut blocking. He’s also a reliable receiver on short routes, catching the ball with his hands, and he can catch targets with his back to the quarterback. He’ll have the occasional lapse of patience where he has to be more cognizant of looking the ball into his body.

Injuries have been an issue. Michael has broken a leg and torn an ACL in consecutive years. He was had lapses of discipline as a teammate.

The maturity issue was considered Micheal’s greatest stumbling block before the draft. The A&M runner put on a show at the combine with a 4.54, 40-yard dash; an incredible 4.02, 20-yard shuttle; and a somewhat mind-blowing 6.69-second, three-cone drill. All he had to do after this display was to show up to the team interviews and say that his past mistakes were nothing but youthful immaturity.

He could throw in that he’s learning how to become a better teammate and reliable adult and that he understands the NFL is an opportunity of a lifetime and he’d be a lock for the third round. Instead, Michael overslept and missed his interviews.

However, post-draft interviews with Michael depict a young man who displays far more maturity and poise than how some in the media depicted him at college. Michael says he missed the interviews because he was ill during the combine and after working out the symptoms were bad enough that he was wiped out that night and next morning.

Based on my limited information about Michael’s behavior I characterized him as a player who can run over, around, or away from just about anyone on a football field, but was having a lot of trouble winning the internal battle. I’m not so sure the losers in this evaluation of Michael’s character weren’t those of us who didn’t know anything more than what the media reported. At the same time, I’m not completely convinced his past behavior was all something the media blew out of proportion. If he can regain his pre-injury form and continue to show evidence of mature (enough) behavior he can be the best back in this class.

My sample play-by-play reports on Christine Michael. 

Fantasy draft coming up? Download the 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio available now. Better yet, if you’re a fantasy owner the 56-page Post-Draft Add-on comes with the 2013 RSP at no additional charge and available for download within a week after the NFL Draft. Best, yet, 10 percent of every sale is donated to Darkness to Light to combat sexual abuse. You can purchase past editions of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio for just $9.95 apiece.

Reads Listens Views 8/2/2013

It's already difficult enough for the NFL to pick a prized catch from the multitudes. Even so, it needs to keep getting better. See below. Photo from National Geographic.
It’s already difficult enough for the NFL to pick a prized catch from the multitudes. Even so, it needs to keep getting better. See below. Photo from National Geographic.

Views

[youtube=http://youtu.be/0Q5pW6I0sEk]

Nica’s Dream – great tune performed by an excellent guitarist.

Football Read & Commentary

Thompkins might be an example of how most NFL teams weren't thorough enough with character evaluation. Photo by expatsfootball.com
Thompkins might be an example of how most NFL teams weren’t thorough enough with character evaluation. Photo by expatsfootball.com

Kenbrell Thompkins Rescues Himself From Woes – I think most of you get it: I’m rooting for Thompkins because I liked what I saw from him on the field. Another reason is what I read in Michael McKnight’s Sports Illustrated piece on Thompkins well before the Patriots signed him.  The Boston Herald delves a little deeper into Thompkins’ story now that the UDFA wide out has impressed just about everyone who has attended a training camp practice. I’ve written about the public and private scrutiny of character  and the gulf that young players often have to traverse to transition from college star to productive professional.

I’m linking to Thompkins’ camp reports so much this preseason, because I think it’s important to celebrate people who turn their lives around and make good.  Regardless of whether he becomes a productive player, Thompkins is proof positive that people can grow past the mistakes of their youth. If it is true that NFL teams didn’t sign him due to his seven arrests in high school then it’s also an indication that there’s significant flaws in the evaluation process – especially when it comes to assessing character.

Read the two stories above and you’ll understand that this young man hasn’t been arrested in eight years. He’s been on a zero-tolerance program with Cincinnati’s Butch Jones. He worked his tail off in Torrance, California to learn the receiver position. He graduated with a degree in criminal justice.

If a team didn’t draft him due to seven arrests before adulthood then I have to believe that they aren’t examining players with enough depth or perspective. They didn’t consider when he was arrested and his law-abiding behavior since. If they interviewed any of the coaches, teammates, or family members of Thompkins, they either didn’t trust what they heard or took a way too cautious approach. I believe they were covering their asses.

It’s easy to jump through hoops and say you’re thorough, but if you’re not truly analyzing the information, what is all that time, money, and effort worth? That’s the blow-back of a public relations-conscious society: We spend more time focused on covering ourselves to avoid looking bad than actually spending the time to make a good decision. Saying you’re being thorough so you’re not scrutinized and being thorough so you can face it with confidence are two different things.

At the same time, Thompkins’ 78 catches, 1077 yards, and 4 touchdowns in 2 years isn’t fantastic college production so there could have been a good argument made that teams expected to be able to wait until the end of the draft to sign the receiver. However, the fact that Butch Jones had use his connections to sell the Patriots on Thompkins is a telling sign that the NFL saw “seven arrests” and didn’t bother to look hard enough.

There’s lots of talk from former scouts that NFL teams spend as much or more money on private investigators and delving into character than studying on-field performance. If that’s true, Thompkins is a developing into a compelling case why the quality of the legwork may need further review.

Remember great players are exceptions to the role. They are unconventional. If you’re only willing to consider some template version of what’s good to cover your hind parts then you’ll never spot the exceptional.

Views

Speaking of exceptional. This "MJD-like dude" (according to Rex Ryan) is impressing with his speed and pass protection in Jets training camp.
Speaking of exceptional. This “MJD-like dude” (according to Rex Ryan) is impressing with his speed and pass protection in Jets training camp. Keep up the good work and Manish Mehta will remember your first name.

Views

[youtube=http://youtu.be/_Amwq43-lrM]

Now this is how you do “Happy Birthday”

Non-Football Reads

Views – Bob Burnquist (Thanks to Sigmund Bloom)

[youtube=http://youtu.be/tSnfO15cAHE]

This is a well-executed creative life. Inspiring stuff to see a man build this environment to continue growing in his field. I understand the desire.

Views – Chain of Fools

[youtube=http://youtu.be/h8rnHXV7A8Q]

Kind of looks like “Boogie Woogie Man” Jimmy Valiant, don’t you think?

A 261-page online publication that provides 1029 pages of play-by-play notes from my evaluation database and 10 percent of your purchase is donated to fight sexual abuse.
A 261-page online publication that provides 1029 pages of play-by-play notes from my evaluation database and 10 percent of your purchase is donated to fight sexual abuse.

Thank You

Generally, I post this in the beginning. If you’re new to the Rookie Scouting Portfolio blog then you may wonder why I’m posting non-football content today. Every Friday I like to change things up a bit to share what I found compelling during the week. Some of the stories are difficult reads and the music may not be your taste, but that’s just the luck of the draw. What I hope you’ll find worthwhile is this blog when I’m writing about football.

Based on the response thus far, you deserve a lot of thanks for helping me grow this outlet since its inception in 2011. That goes double for those of you who have taken the plunge and purchase the Rookie Scouting Portfolio publication. Now in its eighth year, the RSP is the most comprehensive – and perhaps meticulous – study of rookie skill players available.

For $19.95 you get both a pre-draft publication that includes rankings, game report cards, and play-by-play analysis for each player and a post-draft publication that updates rankings into a tiered cheat sheet and provides draft value data, and analysis on each player’s fit with his new team.  If you’re a fantasy football owner this publication will supply you with the information and perspective you’ll need to pull the trigger (or refrain) in re-draft and dynasty leagues.

I don’t have a mass audience like the big boys, but you should know that my readers are repeat customers who often have a “slap their forehead moment” once they make the decision to purchase the RSP because it’s worth more than they pay for it. The first-time buyers tell me so.

This is a career for me every year I try to make it better than the last in terms of quality of content, transparency of analysis, and improvement of my evaluation process.  Because I spend so much time creating this information, I don’t get to make the time I’d like to give back to the community in the way I was once accustomed in my youth. So it dawned on me in 2012 to donate 10 percent of every sale to a cause I believe in: Darkness to Light. This organization trains individuals and community organizations to recognize and prevent sexual abuse in communities. As football fans, I think we know first hand how even smart, accomplished people can do a poor job of handling the issue of sexual abuse.

Get the RSP and make this a win (you) – win (me) – win (giving back to the community) scenario and download the 2013 RSP now. Past issues (2006-2012) are available for $9.95.

Small Frame, Big Game: Kansas State RB John Hubert

Bill Snyder has earned the moniker "The White Wizard" of college football and RB John Hubert is another one of his small frame, big game minions. Photo by JMR_Photography.
Bill Snyder has earned the moniker “The White Wizard” of college football and RB John Hubert is another one of his small frame, big game minions. Photo by JMR_Photography.

What drives you crazy more: getting whooped or losing a close battle to someone who you think you should have dominated? For me it’s the latter choice because it’s one thing to believe you gave your all and weren’t ready to compete at the same level, but an entirely different story when you think you left your A-game at home to a B-game opponent.

But what if turns out that B-game opponent is a deceptive, A-game player whose skill is making you feel like a underachiever?

For me, the jury is still out when it comes to assessing whether Kansas State RB John Hubert has an A-game worthy of the NFL, but there’s no doubt that if I were a Big-12 defender who just spent an afternoon chasing him around a football field I’d probably need a half-hour date with a heavy bag after the game. Listed at 5’7″, 191 pounds, I’d probably bet someone lunch that he’s not a shade over 185 and I think I’m being generous.

The native of Waco, Texas broke LaDainian Tomlinson’s high school record, but hometown Baylor didn’t even sniff in his direction. Enter Kansas State coach Bill Snyder, a man who knows a thing or two about small backs who play big. As I mentioned the other night on Twitter, the more I watch Kansas State’s offense the greater the admiration I have for Snyder.

The K-State legend’s offense is one that coach Oklahoma coach Bob Stoops – a former Snyder assistant – says is like playing three different systems in the same game. What I especially like is the choice and timing of the constraint plays that K-State calls – often using the running game.

Back to Hubert. The diminutive runner got my attention for his 23-carry, 130-yard, 1-touchdown performance in a 24-19 upset of the Sooners in Oklahoma last years. Don’t tell me how bad the Sooners’ defense was; instead, pay attention to how good Hubert was at defeating angles and slipping tackles.

By my count, Hubert broke nine tackles and generated seven first downs on 24 touches. He got a lot of help from the play calls and execution of his teammates, but there are several attempts in this game where Hubert does something small that makes a big difference.

Whether or not this will translate to the NFL is a question I’m glad I have more time to answer. Still, it was too much fun to watch Hubert and not share what I saw. If you enjoy the nuance of play calling and admire a player who knows how to play to his assets, some of these highlights are worth examining.

Cut Block

One of K-State’s bread-and-butter plays is a power sweep from a spread formation. This is a staple of shotgun football, especially mobile quarterbacks in the college game. However, I like the approach the Wildcats take with a 3×1, 10 personnel set because it’s not formation one expects to see a power sweep.

HubertA1

The beginning of the play looks more like a zone read quarterback option. The left tackle slants inside and leaves the defensive end unblocked as the quarterback fakes the exchange with the running back. This draws the end to the middle of the field and puts him harm’s way with pulling right guard. Meanwhile the left tackle is working to the second level to take out the middle linebacker.

Hubert doesn’t get the ball on this play, but his contribution is to work down the line and help seal the edge by either blocking backside pursuit for the safety over the top. It is an illustration of the type of smart player that is comfortable with physical play that Synder seeks.

HubertA2

This alignment creates a 6-5 scenario in favor of the offense on the left side of the field against defensive personnel playing in a dime, which also lends an edge to the man-to-man match-ups between offense and defense. The next photo is a good illustration of this match-up advantage. of having the best athletes at the line of scrimmage making the key blocks to set up this run.

HubertA3

With a lot of runs, we’re watching wide receivers or tight ends taking on ends and linebackers. In this case, K-State has both tackles sealing the inside while the design of the alignment gives the single receiver a one-on-one with a cornerback split wide from the formation. This should provide a wide alley for the quarterback to run through with his running back serving as a lead, giving K-State a 2-1 match-up in open space.

Conceptually this is a winning play because it maximizes personnel strengths against a defensive alignment naturally weaker against the run and it’s set up with enough misdirection that even if the defensive end is thinking a step ahead (zone read to quarterback or running back) he’s being duped to get into position where the pulling tackle gets a clean shot. There are several plays like this ins K-State’s playbook that maximizes personnel numbers and match-ups, but with far different looks.

HubertA4

As Hubert leads quarterback Collin Klein around the corner, we see the right tackle (No.78) sealing the defensive end to the backside and the left tackle working the middle linebacker down field at the 35. Barring a slip, it’s next to impossible for Hubert to do anything wrong to prevent Klein from getting another five yards for a first down.

HubertA5

But Hubert does more than the minimum as he gauges the angle of the safety and executes a good cut block. His head is not up as he makes the play, but he does work across the body of the defender and aims above the knee. These two points make all the difference for Klein to get a clean dip inside the block and work behind the left tackle to earn another 12 yards on the play. Here’s the play from start to finish (starting at 0:09 if you have to click off the ad and replay it).

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pwI48hn3JcE?start=09&w=560&h=315]

Hubert’s cut block achieves its purpose: crumple the opponent at the point of contact. If a cut block gives the opponent room to fall beyond the point of contact then the blocker’s effort was only partially effective, at best. This was Hubert’s first and best block of the night. He had eight attempts as a run or pass protector and was effective or partially effective five times. He’s good at diagnosing blitzes and green dog blitzes and decent at the cut block, but he’s reckless with his form as a stand-up blocker and tends to throw his body around rather than deliver a controlled punch. I think he’s trying to compensate for his size.

However, I also like that Hubert plays with smarts. He’s the lead blocker once again on a 2nd-and-eight sweep to left end from a 2×1 receiver, 11 personnel shotgun set with 5:57 in the first quarter, but his left tackle is late getting to the edge. It allows the inside linebacker to get down hill with a strong angle to the quarterback.

Hubert is forced to chip the inside linebacker and it delays his angle to the free safety. This allows the free safety to come down hill, get outside Hubert and tackle the quarterback for a loss of a yard. But you can’t blame Hubert unless you preferred the runner to ignore the linebacker because the defender is not his assignment on paper. If that’s the case, the quarterback is probably dropped for a four-yard loss. At least Hubert’s adjustment gave his ball carrier another chance to succeed by making the safety miss.

Here’s a touchdown on a similar play in the second half where Hubert has to delay his angle to check the linebacker before taking out another defender to clear the edge for his quarterback.

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pwI48hn3JcE?start=241&w=560&h=315]

Once again, Hubert makes sure the first defender doesn’t get through before worrying about his own man and it’s this decision-making that leads to K-State earning the advantage.

It’s these types of small adjustments that Hubert makes as a blocker, receiver, and runner that defines his game.

Good Footwork, Strong Short-Area Quickness, But No Third Gear

One of the things that limits Hubert’s game is his lack of game-breaking speed. Here’s another terrific play that results in a 36-yard gain. However, I believe if a back with Bryce Brown’s top-end speed gets this carry, it’s a 79-yard touchdown. This time K-State uses the spread, but creates misdirection against a defense with run-stopping personnel to generate a mismatch on the perimeter.

HubertB1

This is a 1st-and-10 from the K-State 21 with 8:13 in the half from a 1×2 receiver, 11 personnel shotgun set. Hubert flanks the quarterback’s strong side  versus a 43 defensive look with the strong side linebacker play between the tight end and the slot, which gives this two-deep safety look a nickel feel but with 43 personnel.

With 7-8 defenders stationed from the middle to right side of the field – the strong side of the formation – K-State baits the Oklahoma defense by making the play look like it’s going  to the strong side when in fact it’s setting up a weak side run to left end where the defense still has the numbers advantage but they have to recover from heading the wrong direction (any player still inside or moving into the orange box) and have more ground to cover in order to make a play on the ball carrier.

If the play is executed as designed – and it is – Hubert earns a one-on-one in the open field with a cornerback. Advantage: Wildcats.

K-State pulls the guards to the strong side and the left tackle allows the defensive end to move past, hoping the defender will crash down the line as backside pursuit when he sees the guards pulling to the strong side.  This opens left end and gives Hubert the choice of a one-on-one with the corner or an alley between the left tackle and the slot receiver.  Where Hubert shines is that he takes neither options I presented with the arrows.

HubertB2

Instead, Hubert presses the alley inside the slot receiver by making a sharp cut around the defensive end at the edge and this forces the cornerback to bend his hips, stop his momentum, and work towards the wide receiver. Hubert wants both defensive backs to work inside so he can bounce it behind his wide receiver and this press and cut works to perfect.

HubertB3

He follows up with a stutter to get outside the wide receiver’s push of the safety inside and is still quick enough to squeeze under the flat-footed corner at the 26.

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Hubert dips under the corner and hops away from the wrap to his ankles. His footwork to change direction in tight spots and avoid wraps to his lower legs is one of Hubert’s greatest strengths as a runner. Some backs have great speed, strength, and size, but wrap them at the angles or knees and they’re done. Hubert lacks all three of these characteristics but he’s tough for defenders to grasp.

Here’s the play from beginning to end.

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pwI48hn3JcE?start=91&w=560&h=315]

The one thing lacking that the NFL expects from smaller backs is game-breaking speed. Hubert fails to beat the backside safety coming across the field to make the play. There’s a lot of opportunity for him to outrun this angle, but despite the quicks to operate in tight spaces he lacks that final gear to blow by defenders when given the room to open his stride.

Still, the change of direction, the press and cut concepts that he also displays as an interior runner, and the footwork to turn good tackle angles into bad ones are all impressive.

Turning Good Defensive Angles Into Bad Ones: Why He Frustrates Opponents 

This fourth-quarter play from a 2×2 receiver, 10 personnel set versus a dime look at the Oklahoma 19 is another good example the qualities I just described above. This play is a trap, but the crease behind the right guard is closed shut before Hubert approaches the line of scrimmage because of penetration from the defensive tackle over left guard who crosses the face of the center and blows up the design of the play.

HubertC1

Hubert takes it all in stride. He approaches the line, looks to where the defensive tackle was before the snap and find a wide gap between left tackle and left guard and bends the run away from right side of the line that has been blown up by the Oklahoma defensive line.

HubertC2

As he crosses the line of scrimmage the backside tackle gets a bead on Hubert, but is unable to wrap the runner thanks to a quick stiff arm and turn of Hubert’s pads away from the linemen.

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Hubert runs through the early attempt at this wrap and continues down hill for another four yards where the safety wraps and drags the runner three yards later to the eight.

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Watch the video to see it all put together. While the defensive tackle “should have” tackled Hubert, you have to credit the runner for being the first to get his hands on the defender and follow up with evasive action.

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pwI48hn3JcE?start=235&w=560&h=315]

This is why vision, leverage, and footwork in a running back can be as effective as brute strength. It’s the kind of short area skill that Warrick Dunn had at the pro level. The difference between Dunn and Hubert is speed. If Hubert can improve his speed and prove that his shifty style can get the job done against the highest tier of defensive talent, he has the makings of a contributor.

While I’m skeptical, I’m looking forward to seeing more from Hubert and K-State’s offensive schemes as I gather more information.

For analysis of skill players in this year’s draft class, download the 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio.The 2014 RSP will available April 1 and if you pre-order before February 10, you get a 10 percent discount. Better yet, if you’re a fantasy owner the 56-page Post-Draft Add-on comes with the 2012 – 2014 RSPs at no additional charge and available for download within a week after the NFL Draft. Best, yet, 10 percent of every sale is donated to Darkness to Light to combat sexual abuse. You can purchase past editions of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio for just $9.95 apiece.

The Jadeveon Clowney RSP Contest

I think this would be a good tattoo for Jadeveon Clowney. Photo by ToteMoon.
I think this would be a good tattoo for Jadeveon Clowney. Photo by ToteMoon.

I can’t think of a better tone setter for the college football season/2014 NFL Draft season than a piece on South Carolina defensive end Jadeveon Clowney. I’m writing a piece on him for the fall and I want you to help me come up with clever names for what happens on this play below. The five-best entries will win a copy of the 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio or a past copy of their choice. Details below.

[youtube=http://youtu.be/gC44nP7ClxM]

Post your entry in the form below. You may enter as many times as you wish. I have a feeling that the fewer the words (four or less) used, the better. However, if you have a longer phrase to describe what Clowney does to Vincent Smith on this play by all means give it a shot.

As tempting (and entertaining for me) as it might be, entries with curse words will be disqualified from consideration. If I use more than one of your entries in the publication the prize remains your choice of one publication. I also reserve the right to deem you among the winners but not use the phrase in the article (although I hope to include the best five).

The contest ends in 10 days (Friday, July 12). Winners will be announced a week after the contest end date (Friday, July 19).

Ready?

[contact-form][contact-field label=’Name’ type=’name’ required=’1’/][contact-field label=’Email’ type=’email’ required=’1’/][contact-field label=’Location’ type=’text’/][contact-field label=’Comment’ type=’textarea’ required=’1’/][/contact-form]

Dri Archer: Offensive Weapon/Caffeine Substitute

Dri Archer is DeAnthony Thomas without the hype. Photo by Lindsayjf91.
Dri Archer is DeAnthony Thomas without the hype. Photo by Lindsayjf91.

With an alarm clock that goes off at 4:30 am, dawn comes around fast in my household. It doesn’t help matters that I’m not a coffee drinker. But if I could watch more prospects with Dri Archer’s big-play ability, I’d have a great 5:00 am caffeine substitute.

The Kent State offensive weapon averaged 9 yards per carry (yes carry, not touch) on his 150 attempts in 2012. He was also the only player in the FBS to earn over 1300 yards rushing and catch over 500 yards of passes last year. There’s a good possibility that Black Mamba has nothing on Archer but more surrounding talent in a better offensive system.

The Go Daddy Bowl in Mobile Alabama might be one of Archer’s worst statistical outings – 99 total yards and a touchdown – but in this game Archer had one of the best non-scoring runs I saw last year. At 5’8″, 164 pounds, Archer is an inch shorter and 10 pounds lighter than Tavon Austin. Regardless of what anyone says, Austin will be a test case for smaller hybrid players. If Austin succeeds right away, Archer and DeAnthony Thomas could see their draft stock rise and we begin to hear analysts talk about skill in “pound-for-pound” terms.

If Austin’s game translates, here is a coming attraction of what Archer might bring to a pro stadium near you.

Short Area Handling + Long Speed = Instant Offense

Here’s a jet sweep in the first half of the Go Daddy Bowl where Archer gains 44 yards on one of the best individual displays of speed and agility I saw in 2012. This is a 1st and 10 at the Kent State 34 from a 1×2 receiver, 11 personnel set. Archer is the single receiver on the strong side of the formation and motions towards the quarterback, taking the jet sweep as the strong side guard and running back pulls to the weak side edge. Here’s the play and below it, my thoughts on how it unfolds.

[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E_ZfDeYl5lA?start=66&w=560&h=315]

Archer sets up his blocks with a fantastic cut inside the running back, who has to contend with an edge defender penetrating seven yards deep into the backfield. It’s not just the deep penetration early in the play that makes the ball carrier’s adjustment so impressive, it’s the fact that he has to dip inside the running back and away from the quarterback.

Avoiding one obstacle this early in a play is enough to foil most runners, but I’ve seen enough quarterback-runner collisions in my day to believe that what Archer does here is that 1 out of 10 scenario that worked in his favor. Archer then makes a second dip inside the pulling guard as he gets just outside the hash to reach the line of scrimmage.

These two cuts not only prevent a loss, but open the field for a huge gain up the hash and flat. He beats the backside defender with his acceleration is in the second level. Eight yards later, he dips outside the safety with a lightning-quick change of direction at top speed as he crosses the first down marker.

Archer beats the defensive back around the corner and reaches the 50 (16 yards into his 44-yard gain) with another secondary defender five yards down field with an angle on the runner. Archer reaches the 45, takes two steps and dips inside the corner, using his outside arm to ward off the defender.

This is a strong example of how a stiff arm can have value as either an expression of leverage or power.  In Archer’s case it’s a simple tap of the flat-footed defensive back’s shoulder as he’s executing a swift cut to get behind three lineman working up field at the 40 and the stiff arm sends the defender to the ground.

Archer crosses behind these linemen at the 40, cuts across to the left hash at the 35, and makes a sharp cut inside the safety at the 30. If he doesn’t have to run into his wide receiver to make the cut he probably continues across the field and scores. However, the combination of his cut to avoid the corner and the flash of his teammate behind him forces Archer to cut towards traffic where there are five defenders within a five-yard radius.

As he reaches the 25 Archer is wrapped and it ends one of the best runs I’ve seen all year.

Again, I’ll recap why I loved this run and how it might give us a clue to what could make him a successful NFL prospect as an offensive/special teams weapon:

  • Archer has a feel for anticipating and avoiding penetration.
  • The ball carrier’s quickness and change of direction isn’t predicated on stop-start moves that don’t work as well in the NFL; he bends runs and accelerates through cuts, which coupled with his anticipation makes it even more difficult for backside pursuit to get easy plays when penetration alters the runner’s path.
  • Archer has a feel for setting up blocks and despite his electronically timed 4.28-speed, he has the patience to work behind his blockers.
  • Kent State’s big-play weapon plays with good pad level, keeps his legs moving, and understands the value of using a stiff arm to ward off contact as opposed to an instrument of punishment.

If not Austin, Why Not DeSean Jackson?

The Eagles receiver is 6’0″, 178 pounds and has shown he’s a capable, impact player as an NFL starter split from the formation. Archer has the fundamental skills that teams can build on when it comes to receiving: He catches the ball with his hands away from his body, and he doesn’t let impending contact dissuade him from attacking the football or break his concentration.

[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ARPF1KIiiZ8?start=185&w=560&h=315]

I also like that there is some evidence of Jackson using his hands and feet to work free of a potential jam from Dolphins draft pick Don Jones on this play.

This 18-yard gain is Archer’s final catch of the game –  2nd and 10 at the Arkansas State 45 with 0:57 in the half from a 2×1 receiver, 11 personnel shotgun set. Archer is the slot man on the strong side at the right hash with a safety playing 15 yards off the hash and Jones as the nickel back playing  two yards off the line of scrimmage to Archer’s inside.

[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E_ZfDeYl5lA?start=155frameborder=&w=560&h=315]

A second safety is in the middle of the field about eight yards off the line of scrimmage but Archer and the quarterback do a good job of reading him crowd the line of scrimmage as the pre-snap phase ends. It this safety that gives the quarterback and receiver an opening to exploit.

Archer does a fine job of using his hands to avoid Jones’ jam as he slants across the field to the opposite hash, catching the ball 12 yards to the opposite hash with his hands.

I haven’t seen enough from Archer to give a serious comparison to Austin or Jackson beyond his athleticism and open-field skill. In these respects, Archer fits within this spectrum of athlete. However, as much as I appreciate what Archer does from the backfield I can’t help but see him more as a niche player than an every-down threat unless he’s drafted as a receiver.

There’s more I have to watch before I can deliver a more definitive analysis. Still, Archer is a player who can wake up defenses and fans in a hurry and it makes him worth watching when Kent State takes the field in September.

For analysis of skill players in this year’s draft class, download the 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio.The 2014 RSP will available April 1 and if you pre-order before February 10, you get a 10 percent discount. Better yet, if you’re a fantasy owner the 56-page Post-Draft Add-on comes with the 2012 – 2014 RSPs at no additional charge and available for download within a week after the NFL Draft. Best, yet, 10 percent of every sale is donated to Darkness to Light to combat sexual abuse. You can purchase past editions of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio for just $9.95 apiece.

Reads Listens Views 6/14/13

If you read the David Eggers book, then you know this picture. Photo by Screen Punk.
If you read the David Eggers book, then you know this picture. Photo by Screen Punk.

Another Friday, another Reads Listens Views. This week has its routine mix of football and non-football content. The real world content (as usual) is often so quietly disturbing that I know 99 percent of you won’t even read it. That’s okay, I share it for the handful that do because fortunately for me I don’t have to always blow sunshine up people’s hind parts.

[youtube=http://youtu.be/28DfvvfZLi0]

Some people hate covers. I’m not one of them. Sometimes you learn more about the quality of a song when someone other than the artist that introduced it to the public performs it. I couldn’t think of a better artist to cover a Sting tune than Stevie Wonder. Whether or not ballads with a bossa nova feel is your thing, I think you can appreciate the craftsmanship of the lyrics and music. On another note, if Sting is just a few years younger than my dad and looks like that, I’m getting back to doing yoga every day. Here’s Sting talking about his yoga experience just a few years after he started it.

I was planning to anyhow, but this was just another source of inspiration.

Of course musicians who make improvisation a high art form have no problem with playing covers . Here’s one of my recent favorites of one of some of the greatest modern performers at their individual instruments playing the Thelonius Monk Blues Straight, No Chaser.

[youtube=http://youtu.be/0uYDBVoUjPo]

Thank You

Normally, this is my weekly ritual to thank my readers for visiting the Rookie Scouting Portfolio blog and/or buying the Rookie Scouting Portfolio publication. Today, I want to thank a subset of my readers that do a lot of positive things for me – the blogging, web, and Twitter community. You have been a source of inspiration, camaraderie, and assistance since I started this blog two years ago.

Writers like Robert Miller, Doug Farrar, Chris Brown, the Dynasty League Football crew, Ryan Lownes, Josh Norris, Sigmund Bloom, Cecil Lammey, and a host of others have routinely sent people here. I don’t participate often in Twitter’s ‘Follow Friday’ ritual, but thanks to all of you who mention me in your lists. I’ll defer to Cian Fahey’s excellent list of people to follow on Twitter that even includes humorous and informative example tweets with each person he recommends (and by the way, Fahey caught me on a good day).

If you’re new to the Rookie Scouting Portfolio look around. There’s a lot of work that I believe you’ll find worth the read. Here are a few suggestions:

If you’re one of the many who have bought the 2013 RSP and it was your first time, I appreciate all the great feedback about your experience reading it. If you haven’t downloaded the RSP yet, you can click these links to learn about it and the post-draft add-on. If you’re not aware, the RSP donates 10 percent of each purchase to Darkness to Light, a non-profit whose mission is to train individuals and communities on sexual abuse prevention and how to address the tragedy when it happens. I have many reasons for believing in this cause, but the Penn State scandal is a perfect illustration that a significant part of the problem are everyday people like us who make mistakes with how to handle it when it happens.

This week is going to be heavy on the ‘listens’ and ‘views’ part of this Friday ritual.

Football

  • I rarely get to post something that Joe Bryant writes, because he’s usually too busy running a business called Footballguys.com. However, I enjoyed his post about Bill Belichick’s handling of the post-Tebow press conference. And I agree, it isn’t that hard.
  • If you follow Bryant or Chris Brown then you probably saw this tackling drill, but I want to talk about it a little more. It doesn’t require me to tell you that it’s safe, teaches good form with the hips, knees head, and arms. If someone can invent or modify a ball that can change direction, it could be even better.
  • Beyond hats, I’m not big fan of consumer football apparel. I have a couple of jerseys and I never wear them. However, this is a good marketing concept by the NFLPA. Hopefully, they’ll put their money where their mouth is when it’s time to back up the good vibe.

Non-Football

  • This Guy Reinvented the Wheel – I don’t know many skateboarders, but this concept has wide-ranging applications beyond the hobby. Fascinating use a cube shape to create a better wheel.
  • This site Invisible People is a great project where a movie director interviews the homeless in the Seattle area. Here is a very short video profile of Mark, a man probably close to my age who suffered a nervous breakdown after his wife and daughter died and when he was released from a psychiatric hospital he had lost everything. The director always asks the people he profiles to share three wishes. Most of them can barely think of more than one and often the wish is rarely about themselves.
  • If you’ve made it this far then you realize that my non-football links are rather depressing. This is why I love having a blog. I can’t share this stuff elsewhere without someone telling me to spout more sunshine. They can blow that sunshine where the sun don’t shine because this is real shit that we ignore all too often. This story on our prison system is a necessary read. For a less graphic, but even scarier true account of what happens when an innocent man winds up in prison – and it’s chilling as hell – read Dave Eggers’ book Zeitoun.

[youtube=http://youtu.be/8OEjYquyjcg]

Blackfish looks like a quality whistle-blower story about a common sense issue that the movie ‘King Kong’ addressed nearly 100 years ago. I loved going to Seaworld when I was growing up and seeing Shamu was a thrill. It was also a bad idea.

Inspirational

[youtube=http://youtu.be/qX9FSZJu448]

2013 1st Round Draft Thoughts and Links

The attitude towards the term "project" is often a glass half-full/half-empty proposition. Which one is Manuel? See below. Photo by D Wilkinson.
The attitude towards the term “project” is often a glass half-full/half-empty proposition. The Bills are optimistic. See below. Photo by D Wilkinson.

Looking for a little preview of my 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio Pre-Draft Rankings? The New York Times is posting the RSP top-five at each skill position.

There will likely be a cluster of  quarterbacks and receivers leaving the board in the second and third round who have just as much if not more of an impact that the first-round talent. I think the same will happen with running backs and tight ends in rounds 3-5 and it will be important to analyze team fit in terms of prospect talent, depth chart talent, and scheme.

Remember, when you purchase the RSP you also get the Post-Draft Addendum with revised fantasy rankings across all positions, preliminary ADP data, and player-team fit analysis.  With a draft like this where we didn’t see a lot of skill players go off the board in the first round, the more you know about these guys the better.

Download the 2013 RSP today and when I announce the post-draft add-on is ready you enter your login and password to download it as well.

First-Round Thoughts – You can find links to analysis of a majority of these players here.

1. Kansas City- Left Tackle Eric Fisher: Fisher’s athleticism makes him a slam dunk here. While Joeckel is an excellent player in his own right, Fisher’s ability to pull and the similarities to former Chippewa and Niner tackle extraordinaire Joe Staley made it too difficult for Andy Reid to resist. Remember, Reid loves the screen play and and Jamaal Charles, Dwayne Bowe, Dexter McCluster, and Devon Wylie are the type of players with run after the catch skills who will also benefit from a tackle who can work the flats.

2. Jacksonville – Tackle Luke Joeckel: Will he play left or right with Eugene Monroe there? Doug Farrar thinks Joeckel is a better right tackle in terms of athletic match. What I can tell you is that the Jaguars have had their share of ailments at the line of scrimmage and it’s always good to have redundancy at one of the more important positions on offense. There’s still time for Jacksonville to grab a quarterback if they want to make this a three-horse race between a rookie, Blaine Gabbert, and Chad Henne. Personally, I think they would be wise to give Gabbert one more year, but he better shake the “Blame” Gabbert label quick.

3. Miami (trade with Oakland) – Outside Linebacker Dion Jordan: Cameron Wake opposite Jordan, but Jon Gruden brings up an interesting point in terms of Jordan playing a rotation at Oregon and whether he’ll be good for four quarters of NFL football. I’m not too worried about Jordan’s conditioning as much as how he’ll fit into a new defense. He also strikes me as more of a “clean-up” playmaker than the instigator. On a team with Cameron Wake on the opposite side, that’s not a bad thing, but if Jordan had to be that primary guy I’d be more worried. It’s a fine pick and a risk worth taking because of the Aldon Smith upside.

4. Philadelphia – Left Tackle Lane Johnson: A former college quarterback-tight end-right tackle who is now drafted as a left tackle. You need an athlete for up-tempo football and he can play either side. Johnson will bolster the running game and hopefully transition smooth enough to give Mike Vick fewer breakdowns. Of course, Vick has to improve his presnap calls and Johnson has to get used to playing with a mobile quarterback who can be out of control at the wrong times.

5. Detroit – Defensive End Ezekial Ansah: Great athlete who, like Jordan, cleans up better than he starts action. He’s inexperienced compared to even most prospects. Detroit loves his effort and I think this is Jim Washburn lobbying Jim Schwartz for another chance to find a Jason Pierre-Paul. Hopefully there is a fast learning curve or Willie Young takes a huge step forward – he was a second-round pick, you’d think he’s capable. Of course the bills made DT John McCargo a first-round pick and he’s done zilch.

6. Cleveland – Outside linebacker/Defensive End Barkevious Mingo: Mingo’s upside is worth the risk. I think OLB is an easier transition than to DE and he was an LB in high school. Mingo is a misunderstood prospect in terms of his diminished production last year. He was asked to contain the quarterback rather than attack and this meant bull-rushing 300-pound linemen. For a player his size to do this effectively – and he did – takes excellent strength and quickness. First-round pick D.J. Fluker didn’t look all that good against the “raw” Mingo. Cleveland got a potential impact player once this kid refines 1-2 moves that he already has in his toolbox.

7.  Arizona – Guard Jonathan Cooper: One of the safer picks in the draft. Unbelievably quick and his ability to pull not only helps the running game, but play action. Remember, the best play action passes often come with a pulling guard. It’s not always how convincing the quarterback’s fake or the threat of the specific runner as much as it is the fear of the guard. The threat of Cooper will fool a lot of defenders in this league and buy Carson Palmer and Larry Fitzgerald more time. People can make fun of Palmer’s lack of mobility all they want, but he’s far more nimble than many have characterized on TV. Regardless of mobility, Palmer still throws a great deep ball and has three players capable of working down field with the benefit of play action. Cooper will help buy time. If the tackles play a little better, I’d give a bump to Palmer, Fitzgerald, Michael Floyd, and Andre Roberts. There’s some nice material for this passing game to click and this team will need to throw the ball a lot.

8. St. Louis (trade with Buffalo) – Wide Receiver  Tavon Austin: If Austin is misused, he’ll look like Dexter McCluster pre-Andy Reid days. If his talents are maximized, Darren Sproles and Wes Welker come to mind. Austin is not as talented as either in their specific skills as runners and receivers, but he’s a good mix of both and that means he could be one of the more productivity rookies this year.

9. NY Jets – Cornerback Dee Milliner: I said I’d be surprised (December 1) if he wasn’t a top-10 pick.  Miller’s ability to play the receiver and the ball in tight coverage is excellent. He may not catch a lot of passes, but he knows how to jar it loose and get the angle to knock it away. That’s more important that the interception. He’s also a terrific run defender. The Jets may miss Darrelle Revis, but if Milliner plays like he did at Alabama only your less enlightened New York fans will be bashing Milliner a few years from now.

10. Tennessee – Guard Chance Warmack: Warmack bolsters a Titans line and the hope is to give Chris Johnson and dare I say, Shonn Greene more room to roam. If you ask me, they should take another running back. Spencer Ware could beat Greene in his sleep and make a great complement to Johnson, but I don’t think the front office would like to be embarrassed for its misstep on free agent runners so don’t count on it. Then again, if they were foolish enough to take Greene, perhaps they lack the awareness to avoid a better back they can get in rounds 5-7.

11. San Diego – Tackle D.J. Fluker: Safe pick who can play tackle or guard, but I wonder if this is a “play not to lose” pick. Fluker is that kind of guy that teams say “if he doesn’t work at tackle, we at least have a guard.” That’s not how I want to feel about a first-round pick. Cleveland did that with tackle Jason Pinkston two years ago, but the budding stud at guard was a fifth-round pick.

12. Oakland – Cornerback D.J. Hayden: A good player versus the pass. But when the largest artery in your body attached to your heart looks like wet toilet tissue in the operating room and you’re seconds from death, it’s hard to believe the Raiders would be this confident to take Hayden this early. I like their confidence, but for an organization with a track record of taking great athletes with high risk thresholds fans have to be somewhat concerned. If it pays off, he’ll be just what this team needs because its cornerback depth chart is unproven, at best.

13. NY Jets – Defensive Tackle Sheldon Richardson Excellent athlete, but is he a three-technique? What does this mean for the future of the defensive scheme and use of current personnel like Coples?

14. Carolina – Defensive Tackle Star Lotulelei: I think he’s capable of being the best player in this draft. I have a feeling the heart condition scared off all these steak-eating, heart medicine-taking football decision-makers in their 50s and 60s who considered the Utah defensive tackle early. There’s concern he wears down late in games but nobody plays 91.5 percent of the season’s snaps and doesn’t wear down. That’s an insane amount of snaps for a big man. He anticipates the snap better than any defensive tackle in this draft and I think his pass rushing will be better than people characterize once he’s on a rotation that doesn’t ask him to play as much as he did out west. If Jon Beason, Luke Kuechley, and Thomas Davis stay healthy, the Panthers may compete for a playoff spot in 2013.

15 Saints – Safety Kenny Vacarro: A physical, aggressive, athletic tone-setter, Vaccaro is one of my three must-have players along with Lotulelei and Fisher. He should grow into a fine player and be capable of covering slot receivers and tight ends.

16 Bills – QB E.J. Manuel: See this link for more on Manuel. It is fascinating that Marrone took Manuel over Nassib – the quarterback Greg Cosell, Russ Lande, and Jon Gruden thought was the best pro-ready passer. Manuel’s accuracy needs work, but it’s more a conceptual than technical issue. I’m not even sure you call it a flaw as much as inexperience. We’ll see if Todd McShay’s “slow eyes” assertion will be an issue. I thought Manuel read the field well and learned fast from his mistakes. He’ll make some foolish plays, but I don’t think they’ll be the same type over and over. What they’ll be able to do with Manuel and the running backs will also be something to watch. What I do worry about is the lack of a deep threat in Buffalo. Steve Johnson is a fine player, but not a classic field stretcher. They need one and I think that will be addressed in this draft – perhaps one of the next two picks.

17 Pittsburgh – LB Jarvis Jones: This makes as much sense as peanut better and jelly on toasted bread.

18 San Francisco – Eric Reid, Safety: Reid replaces Dashon Goldson. A good player who has room to get better and should do so on a defensive unit this good.

19 Giants – Guard Justin Pugh: Honestly, I don’t know much about him.

20 Chicago – Guard/OT Kyle Long: See above.

21 Cincinnati – Tight End Tyler Eifert: Joe Goodberry says Jermaine Gresham’s contract ends after 2014. Eifert has enough skill as a blocker to develop into a decent replacement with more consistent hands and routes than Gresham. I like the pick because Gresham will be the guy on the line of scrimmage and Eifert can play the Y tight end who moves around and presents problems for defenses in 12 personnel sets. This should help the run and pass game and the Bengals struggled on the ground. Of course, I don’t think they know their running back talent and that might be part of th problem, too.

22 Atlanta – Cornerback Desmond Trufant: Trufant fits the mold of a first-round corner: athletic, aggressive, and confident. He was also battle-tested due to a sub par defensive unit and perhaps the Falcons liked this about him as well. They know he’ll continue battling and not go into a shell when he gets beat.

23 Minnesota – Defensive Tackle Sharrif Floyd: Minnesota has some success developing linemen so I think it’s a good fit for Floyd, who has the potential to become an excellent 4-3 defensive tackle. The pad level has to get better, but this was a good place to take Floyd – rather than the top of the first round.

24. Indianapolis Defensive End/OLB Bjoern Werner: I like Werner as an outside linebacker/elephant-type Terrell Suggs prospect. The quickness and awareness at the line of scrimmage are good enough that I think Werner projects better here than a traditional defensive end.

25. Minnesota – Cornerback Xavier Rhodes:  I love this pick because Rhodes has a chance to become a shut-down corner. He has the most athletic upside of the corners in this class. I’ll say this, if the Vikings can get good quarterback play, they have the talent to contend in the NFC North. They are trying their best not to waste the talents of Adrian Peterson and I applaud them for being aggressive. See below.

26. Green Bay – Defensive End Datone Jones: A tough, aggressive defensive end who held his own against Eric Fisher and should bolster this Packers unit.

27. Houston – Wide Receiver DeAndre Hopkins: I think Hopkins was the safest receiver in this draft and the most likely to help the Texans now and develop into a primary option once Andre Johnson leaves. Hopkins is quick, physical, and reliable. He’ll exploit single coverage and should see plenty of it. If the Texans continue to use a run-heavy offense with a play action component, Hopkins will also get deep the way Hakeem Nicks can. It’s early, but one of my favorite skill position picks in this draft.

28.Denver – Defensive Tackle Sylvester Williams: Quick first step. I’ll let Cecil Lammey tell you about it next Thursday.

29.  Minnesota (trade w/New England) – Playmaker Cordarrelle Patterson: Patterson can return kicks, punts, work from the backfield, and catch passes. He’s a much better pass catcher than some characterize because his drops are not about issues with his hands, but issues of looking the ball into his body before he tries to run. It’s an obvious flaw for a player who might be the best run after the catch player I have seen in college football. This will scare football fans my age, but physically he reminds me a little of Michael Westbrook as a runner – strong agile, fast, and elusive. If he loves football more than Westbrook, he could be a player similar to Dez Bryant but perhaps even better with the ball in his hands and more versatile. I love this kind of move because the Vikings need help now and Patterson may not help immediately as a receiver the way Hopkins could have, the team should be smart enough to find ways to use Patterson in the offense and get big plays.

30 St. Louis – Linebacker Alec Ogletree: The Georgia linebacker will play outside in this scheme and his combination of athleticism and skill as a former safety make him a player that reminds me of former Jeff Fisher linebacker Keith Bullock. Ogletree lacks that refined skill, but I see why the Rams took him.

For analysis of skill players in this year’s draft class, download the 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio available now.  Better yet, if you’re a fantasy owner the 56-page Post-Draft Add-on comes with the 2013 RSP at no additional charge. Best, yet, 10 percent of every sale is donated to Darkness to Light to combat sexual abuse. You can purchase past editions of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio for just $9.95 apiece.

The 2013 RSP “Mocking the Mock”

If football were more like the rasslin' she grew up watching with her grandfather, Paulette Mooney would be more interested in doing a full mock draft. Photo by John Jewell.
If football were more like the rasslin’ she grew up watching with her grandfather, Paulette Mooney would be more interested in doing a full mock draft. Photo by John Jewell.

I don’t do mock drafts. I have nothing against them. If I had more time, I’d probably get into them. They’re entertaining. And you can’t get much more entertaining than a Greg Cosell mock, unless of course you get my wife’s commentary layered over top – Paulette Mooney style with a Billy ‘Superstar’ Graham sensibility.

Reader Advisory: If you approach this NFL event as a Holy Day – avoid this sacrilegious piece. Otherwise . . . 

My wife doesn’t watch football much. They outlawed too many of the techniques that she thought were perfectly reasonable:

  • Clotheslines
  • Spearing
  • Headbutts
  • Eye Gouges
  • Horse Collars

You need to understand that my wife grew up in the country and was raised “country strong,” along the lines of Steve McNair. She tore her Achilles’ in January and ditched the crutches the next day and the walking boot the day after. She’s tired of hearing about “poor Kobe Bryant” because she’s already walking in heels and beginning an exercise regimen. The orthopedist asked if he could write something about her – I’m not kidding.

This is the mentality of a woman who grew up with a grandfather who worked at a sawmill most of his life and a social worker grandmother (think a more sophisticated and urbane Madea from Tyler Perry) who was given all the “hard cases” to straighten out. Farm life, fixing houses, and trying to avoid her grandfather’s tonic of lemon juice and moonshine when she got sick made her country strong. It’s the best I can explain about a woman who ran a 11.2-second, 100 and has a 19-foot long jump to her credit when her ‘warm up’ consisted of a pre-event cigarette.

Jene Bramel calls my wife Paulette Mooney, because much of her commentary veers into the realm of Paul Mooney’s comedy. Now that you understand a little about Paulette Mooney, here’s what went down when I explained a mock draft using Greg Cosell’s as an example.

I could only keep her attention for the first 18 picks before she was off to re-flooring the kitchen and re-facing kitchen cabinets. But if you know her – that’s an impressive number.

1. Kansas City Chiefs – Central Michigan Offensive Tackle, Eric Fisher:

Paulette stares at the photo of Fisher at the top of the Cosell article.

“Is that him? He looks like he could take out a tree – and he’d enjoy it . . . Oh my God, you know all those Army-Navy commercials to brainwash all the kids to join? [She begins to sing] Be proud, be strong . . . maybe it’s just the jersey with all those stars on it messing with me.”

“He’s fast, too,” I tell her.

Paulette rolls her eyes and responds with her best imitation of a sports anchor talking about Robert Griffin.

“Is he articulate, too? I bet he has such a good speaking voice – like Obama.”

My real take on Eric Fisher

Paulette agrees with Joeckel's dad. Photo by Zennie Abraham.
Paulette agrees with Joeckel’s dad. Photo by Zennie Abraham.

2. Jacksonville Jaguars – Texas A&M Offensive Tackle, Luke Joeckel:

Paulette squints at the name and makes a face.

“That’s a trailer park last name. Sounds like a guy I’d watch on ‘My Name is Earl’. I love that show. But he looks like he’s too nice”

“His dad once told him that he could be as nice as he wanted off the field, but to be mean on it.”

“I’m with pops on that philosophy . . . “

“I know – I’m already trying to figure out a way to keep us from getting banned from high school games if we have a son who plays.”

3. Oakland Raiders – Florida Defensive Tackle, Shariff Floyd: 

Defensive tackle?”

“Yeah, they’re also often called ‘Nose Tackles’ they play across from the guy snapping the ball . . . “

“You mean you can go for people’s noses? I like that . . . ‘Sharrif,’ that’s a city name from up north.”

“Good guess. He’s from Philly – we really need to enter you into a contest.”

Paulette takes a look at Floyd’s highlights on YouTube.

“Some ugly uniforms . . .”

“When it comes to being a resident of Athens, there’s some hope for you yet.”

“He can manhandle some folks though. He and that Fisher guy are some corn-fed boys. You want some con-fed mother&%*@!$%.”

4. Philadelphia Eagles – Oregon Outside Linebacker Dion Jordan:

[youtube=http://youtu.be/FzQBOBoPg04]

“Dion? You gotta be strong to be a dude name ‘Dion’,” Paulette laughs and begins singing. “What do you get when you fall in love . . .”

“That’ ain’t right.”

Paulette looks at highlights of Jordan sacking Brock Osweiler last year.

“Who is that team in black?”

“Arizona State”

“They look like a S.W.A.T. team gone bad.”

“Remember that article I had to write that kept us from going to that Barry Manilow concert you wanted to see? [Editor’s note: Thank you, Football Outsiders]

“Yeah. . . now I don’t like him. He’s smooth though . . .who was the other guy you had in that article?”

“Barkevious Mingo.”

“Unnhhh. Is he in this mock?”

“Yep.”

“Alright then . . . I got something to say about him and his mom, later.”

My real take on Dion Jordan

5. Detroit Lions – Oklahoma Offensive Tackle Lane Johnson:

“Well, thanks to his mom, he’ll get job with that name once he blows his Achilles’ tendon.”

“Lane? Really, you like that name?”

“That’s a nice name. That’s a dude I’d call if I got a speeding ticket.”

“Why?”

“It sounds professional, but kind of shady – just shady enough that he’ll get you off.”

Eifert and Ike Turner? Only with Paulette Mooney. Photo by Neon Tommy.
Eifert and Ike Turner? Only with Paulette Mooney. Photo by Neon Tommy.

6. Cleveland Browns – Notre Dame Tight End Tyler Eifert:

Paulette bursts into laughter.

“Who came up with the name ‘Tight end’?”

“Players who caught passes and were positioned at the end of the line were called ‘ends.’ The ones further away were ‘split’ from the formation and called ‘split ends’ the ones ‘tight’ to the line . . . “

“There’s nothing right about that name for a position – whether you’re a boy or a girl. And Tyler Eifert? What kind of name is that? All I can think about is Ike Turner saying, ‘Anna Mae!!!'”

“What?”

“I just see Ike whipping Tina’s ass in the back of a limo – I know that’s not funny, but in hindsight it kind of is now that you see Tina getting the last laugh. You know, that Eifert must have some kind of game because if Ike fooled Anna Mae this guy must be the same deal in football terms – a sneaky ass whooper.”

“Well, if any analytics guys read what you just said, they’ll probably say it’s proof positive that they don’t need me to ‘eyeball’ players.’

“Anal-lytics? Tight Ends? Wide Receivers?”

“Yep.”

Paulette collapses onto the coach and curls into the fetal position. Her body is shaking as she muffles the laughter into a pillow.

My real take on Tyler Eifert

7. Arizona Cardinals – West Virginia Wide Receiver, Tavon Austin:

“Tavon Austin.  He’s short isn’t he?”

“If he’s picked here, he’ll be the shortest player ever picked this high.”

“Is he related to Spud Webb – that’s my boy. Even if he played at Wake. That’s all I’ve got to say about Tavon”

My real take on Tavon Austin

Who needs analytics or scouting if you can just tell what he does by his first name? Photo by Crawford Orthodontics.
Who needs analytics or scouting if you can just tell what he does by his first name? Photo by Crawford Orthodontics.

8. Buffalo Bills, Outside Linebacker Barkevious Mingo:

I bet he’s fast.”

“Why?”

“With that name he did a lot of running as a kid.”

“Oh Lord . . .”

“Tell his momma she needs to call me. We need to have a chat about resumes. How’s he gonna get paid outside of football with a name like that?”

“If he’s one of the [seemingly 5 percent] of NFL players who gets his finances right, he won’t need to. Check this out.”

[youtube=http://youtu.be/260jraqaArs]

“I LIKE him. He’s throwin’ people down and causing fights! That’s how a man gets paid! He has Taye Diggs’ teeth . . .can we fix him up with our daughter?”

“No.”

“Why not? “

“She has a boyfriend.”

“But he can’t even beat her in fantasy football.”

My real take on Barkevious Mingo

9. New York Jets – North Carolina Offensive Guard Jonathan Cooper:

“You’re a rising senior. Stay in school; get your paper.”

“But he’s really good. He stands to make a ton of money.”

“The other paper will still be waiting on you,” she says while looking at the highlights and commenting about the stupidity of long hair in football. “With a college degree he’ll be fine. If he gets hurt in the NFL he won’t get no money either.”

My real take on Jonathan Cooper

10. Tennessee Titans – Alabama Offensive Guard Chance Warmack:

“He’s a trailer boy, but his parents gave him a real name – good for him.”

Paulette guessed the UGA guys by their names. It's an intuitive thing. Photo by C. Vogle.
Paulette guessed the UGA guys by their names. It’s an intuitive thing. Photo by C. Vogle.

11. San Diego Chargers – Georgia Linebacker Alec Ogletree:

“All I can think of is Oglethorpe Street here in town.”

“Well he did play here in town.”

“Really? He’s one of our local kids? Why is he wearing a flag? This isn’t flag football? Georgia is always confusing me.”

My real take on Alec Ogletree

12. Miami Dolphins – Houston Cornerback D.J. Hayden

“Wait a minute, isn’t that who they’re talking about on TV?” Paulette watches Mike Mayock and Paul Burmeister hosting a mock draft on NFL Network.”That blond guy is about a second away from whistling through his teeth every time he uses a word with an ‘s’. A little distracting.”

“I hadn’t noticed.”

“Look at my husband trying to be nice. Good thing there’s no NFL team called the Sioux City-City Slickers. Every dog in a two-mile radius of a sports bar might come running. D.J. Hayden . . . what’s this about an island on the football field. There’s no island”

“Long story.”

“D.J. . . . Dee-Jay . . . All I can think of is this rap song from the 80s where the woman says ‘Dee-Jay please pick up the phone on the request line . . .’

“I knew there’d be an `80s reference dropped somewhere in here.”

“You know it!”

13. Pittsburgh Steelers – Georgia Outside Linebacker Jarvis Jones

“I like that name. It sounds like a Georgia name.”

“Why? [She’s right again]”

“Sounds homey and warm. He’s from some place like Illa – some place nobody ever heard of . . .”

“He plays here in town. I think he is an in-state guy,” I look it up and sure enough, Richland, Georgia.

“Richland? Have you heard of it?

“I’ve lived here all my life and never heard of it.”

Paulette watches some tape of Jones and points to the screen.

“I like sacks. Does he do that a lot?”

“Yep.”

That’s all I need to know.”

14. Carolina Panthers – Missouri Defensive Tackle Sheldon Richardson:

What’s his major? Chemistry?

“Why? His name?”

“Yeah. Sounds like anything, but ‘Sharrif’.”

“Agriculture?”

“And he’s not finishing?” Paulette looks at the highlights. “Yeah . . . he’s gone.”

15. New Orleans Saints – Utah Defensive Tackle Star Lotulelei”

“He’s one of them corn-fed guys. Do they have corn in Hawaii?”

“He’s Samoan. I guess this talent for names only applies to the continental U.S”

“I like him. He can tear people up.”

My real take on Star Lotulelei

All he needs is Whoppers. Photo by Mike Pettigano.
All he needs is Whoppers. Photo by Mike Pettigano.

16. St. Louis Rams – Alabama Running Back Eddie Lacy:

That’s my dog.”

“I know, you liked him over the North Carolina guy [Giovani Bernard]”

“You can’t tell me people that . . . nah, you can tell ’em. North Carolina is a basketball school. But that football program is getting better.”

“You know Lacy was out of shape and couldn’t finish his workouts.”

“He’s been eating too much of that supposed, ‘nutritious’ food. He needs some fat back and greens from the farm.”

“Like he needs a heart attack.”

“Just stay off Eddie and that work-out.  He’ll be fine. What’s his address? I’m going to send him some Whoppers with Cheese.”

My real take on Eddie Lacy

17. Pittsburgh Steelers – Alabama Cornerback Dee Milliner:

“Cornerback? They cover the wide recei – ” Paulette erupts into laughter.

My real take on Dee Milliner

18. Dallas Cowboys – Texas Safety Kenny Vaccaro:

“I like the name ‘Vaccaro’. Kennnaaaay . . . VaCCARRRRROOOO. I bet he has the Rico Suave thing happening. Is he covering wide ends, too?”

“No but tight ones.”

Paulette breaks into rhyme:

So please don’t judge a book by its cover
There’s more to being a latin lover
You got to know how to deal with a woman
That won’t let go
The price you pay for being a gigolo

Because he’s Kennnaaayy Vaccarrrrooo.

My real take on Kenny Vaccaro And yes, she really likes that song and likes his game.

Til next year . . .

[youtube=http://youtu.be/Nx64_N4AA04]

For (non-Paulette Mooney) analysis of skill players in this year’s draft class, download the 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio available now. Better yet, if you’re a fantasy owner the 56-page Post-Draft Add-on comes with the 2013 RSP at no additional charge and available for download within a week after the NFL Draft. Best, yet, 10 percent of every sale is donated to Darkness to Light to combat sexual abuse. You can purchase past editions of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio for just $9.95 apiece.