Posts tagged NFL Scouting

Futures: My Expansion Franchise

0 Comments read 2014 NFL Draft
Welcome to my lab where will I concoct a winning franchise. Photo by the state of Victoria.
Welcome to my lab where will I concoct a winning franchise. Photo by the state of Victoria.

You’ve just been awarded an NFL expansion team and must build your personnel department. Go.

Futures: My Expansion Franchise

By Matt Waldman

When the writer of Smartfootball.com suggests that, “you should storify that series of tweets,” it’s a take on a subject worth further exploration. The topic came courtesy of Luke Easterling (@NFLDraftReport) who, on Sunday night, posed the following scenario on Twitter: “You’ve just been awarded an NFL expansion team and must build your personnel department from Draft-Twitter. Go.”

I gave my list of NFL writers, former scouts, consultants, and analysts that I’d use to build my organization, but what was more compelling to Twitter was the way I structured the jobs. My vision for team-building a front office and scouting department got a lot of positive response.

More than anything, I believe the way the Twitter community responded to my approach has to do with the fact that a lot of my audience is football writers and diehard fans who are critical of the NFL’s approach to managing its own. They’re ready to welcome a different vision.

Some of my plans aren’t unique to the NFL. There are teams that at least have an aligned vision from its ownership to its coaching staff. However, the way I’d create and continuously strengthen that alignment is a departure from the league.

I believe in the merit of my ideas, but I’m not dreaming of the day I win multiple Powerballs or inherit billions. Unless an NFL owner is alright with me reporting to work in jeans and sporting my collection of hats and caps, the likelihood of me becoming a GM went from infinitesimally small to impossible.

Then again, there have been requests for my consultation on prospect evaluation that I didn’t intend when began the Rookie Scouting Portfolio in 2006, so you never really know. Maybe my buddy Sigmund Bloom manages to raise $50 from the 20 million NFL fans around the world on Kickstarter and we’re in business. Until then, let’s call this a (hopefully) entertaining football and management exercise.

First, a couple of assumptions we need to get out of the way. If I was awarded an NFL franchise I would have done three things—among others—before I even applied for the rights to an expansion team:

  • A 10, 15, and 20-year cost analysis of owning a team based on my vision.
  • Studied the details of the city of Green Bay’s ownership of the Packers and formulated a 15-year plan to transition the team to a non-profit corporation owned by its fans (one person can own no more than 200,000 shares of its stock).
  • Determined the efficacy of current personnel and front office roles within most NFL organizations

The next step is building an organizational structure. There are several things that I’d do that due to time and space limitations, I won’t get into, but here are the highlights of how I’d implement a vision to build a brain trust responsible for evaluating, acquiring, managing, and developing talent on and off the field.

Read the rest at Football Outsiders.

A Game of Inches: The Talent Gap By the Numbers

0 Comments read 2014 NFL Draft, Matt Waldman, RSP Publication

Based on these numbers, less than 1 percent of the seniors playing college football will ever earn a second contract in the NFL.

Greg Linton, an NFL agent, shared this on Twitter this morning. There’s another salient point embedded in this data that goes beyond the message of “get your education.” It’s how data displays the differences in execution. It is a great way to see the differences between “good” college football and “good” NFL football.

Only the top 6.5 percent of all high school players compete at the college level. It means they are in the 93.5 percentile of all high school players. Likewise, only the top 1.6 percent of all college players enter the NFL–the 98.4 percentile. And that second NFL contract–the seal of approval that you’re a good NFL player–is reserved for less than one percent of all college players; the 99.06 percentile.

Viewing the numbers in this fashion, it doesn’t look like a big difference between the 93.5 percentile, the 98.4 percentile, and the 99.06 percentile. You’d be mistaken.

This may be a stretch for some–and it certainly isn’t scientific–but for the sake of entertainment, let’s presume that these percentiles were a reflection of a player’s success rate executing plays on a per snap basis. I understand this is not exact, but I think there’s enough to this idea to suspend disbelief long enough to make an overall point that is worthwhile.

The table below shows the amount of errors–or bad plays–that a player would commit over the course of a million plays based these percentiles that represent their standing as a college (93.5 percentile), NFL prospect (98.4 percentile), or NFL vet earning a second contract (99.07 percentile).

Plays Percentile Good Plays Errors/Bad
1,000,000 0.935 935,000 65,000
1,000,000 0.984 98,4000 16,000
1,000,000 0.9906 99,0600 9,400

The difference between 65,000 errors and 16,000 errors is massive and that’s just the gap between a college player and NFL prospect who might last three years in the league. The NFL vet who earns a second deal commits 42.3 percent fewer errors than the prospect ad 86.6 fewer errors than the college player. And I’m talking about the average player on a team, which includes the best and the worst players on each squad–forget about the stars!

Even these numbers are a little harder to grasp, because we’re looking at a million plays. We won’t see any player execute that many over the course of a career–as hard as Brett Favre, George Blanda and Bruce Matthews tried.

So let’s break it down to plays in a season. Let’s estimate a player sees 40 plays a game for 16 games. I know this isn’t completely accurate for the college game or certain players in the NFL. However, it’s a more understandable sample size of plays for a season that equates to 640 plays.

Now look at the differences in errors/bad plays–it’s a lot easier to grasp.

Player Plays Percentile Good Plays Errors
College 640 0.935 598.4 41.6
NFL Prospect 640 0.984 629.76 10.24
NFL Vet 640 0.9906 633.984 6.016

The difference between 10 and 6 egregious errors per season per player is staggering–and that’s the difference between a young NFL player and a veteran. Those 41.6 errors per season for the average college player just doesn’t cut it for the pro game. This chart hints at why NFL athleticism is a difference maker in the college game even if the NFL skill and understanding of football isn’t always present.

In contrast, the gap between a prospect and vet is much smaller from an athletic standpoint, but the differences in errors is still large based on knowledge of technique, strategy, and consistency of execution. Again, this is hypothesizing that we’re discussing the average player at each level.

Now think about the top four players on each team–Pro-Bowl caliber players–that’s 128 players in the NFL. These players are in the 99.88 percentile in all of football–high school, college, and NFL. Using a sample of 640 plays in a 16-game season they would commit .75 egregious errors.

This seems hard to believe. In fact, you can see where this theory begins to crack at the seams because even All-Pros make mistakes multiple times in a season. However, how many of them are solely their fault and not something that can be explained by the error of a teammate? Not as many as you might think.

I wouldn’t throw out this examination because the numbers aren’t exactly right. The point is still a good one: The gap in talent is about consistency of execution and it requires knowledge, skill, and focus as the gap in athleticism narrows.

For analysis of skill players in this year’s draft class, download the 2014 Rookie Scouting Portfolio. Better yet, if you’re a fantasy owner the 56-page Post-Draft Add-on comes with the 2012 – 2014 RSPs at no additional charge and available for download within a week after the NFL Draft. Best, yet, 10 percent of every sale is donated to Darkness to Light to combat sexual abuse. You can purchase past editions of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio for just $9.95 apiece.

Reads Listens Views 1/10/2014

0 Comments read Reads Listens Views

This Week’s RLV: A jive turkey worth eating, appreciating Klook, a spec at sea, Cyrille Aimee, and tree houses.

Listens

[youtube=http://youtu.be/Nt7UBKF1BQI]

Views – Unbelievable Tree Houses

The blog Higher Learning has a great post of amazing tree houses.

Tree House 2

For more, including an invisible tree house, check out Higher Learning 

Welcome

If you’re new to the Rookie Scouting Portfolio blog, welcome. Every Friday, I post links to things I’m checking out when I’m online. You may not like everything listed here, but you’re bound to like something. It’s also my chance to thank you for reading my work and encourage you to follow the RSP blog and buy the Rookie Scouting Portfolio publication.

For those of you new to the Rookie Scouting Portfolio, the publication is available every April 1. You can learn more about the RSP here. If you want to see samples of the play-by-play notes I take to write the analysis, you can find them here. And to download past versions of the publication (2006-2012), go here.

This month through February 10, I’m offering an early bird discount to those who pre-order the RSP.

In addition to the RSP and  the post-draft publication that comes with it a week after the NFL Draft, 10 percent of each sale is donated to Darkness to Light. This organization is a non-profit devoted to preventing and addressing sexual abuse through community training in schools, religious groups, and a variety of civic groups across the U.S.

Here is what the RSP donated to D2L this year. According to D2L, the RSP’s 2013 donation amount was enough to train 250 adults in communities across the country.  I will have an announcement about the 2014 RSP next week. Stay tuned.

In Case You Missed It/What’s Ahead at The RSP Blog

Teddy Ballgame (sorry, Mr. Williams) coming soon to the RSP. Photo by KYNGPAO
Teddy Ballgame (sorry, Mr. Williams) coming soon to the RSP. Photo by KYNGPAO
  • Futures: Fresno State QB Derek Carr – Want to learn about a QB’s mindset? Watch his feet.
  • Boiler Room: Penn State WR Allen Robinson – How he can make a good skill immediately better.
  • Aspire for the Catch, Settle for the Trap – Marqise Lee demonstrates what Gator Hoskins has to learn. An angle on extending for the ball you might not have considered.
  • RSP Rorschach No.2: Davante Adams – This is a beautiful adjustment on a deep post, but did he have to make it?
  • Isaiah Crowell – Why he might be the most talented back in this `14 class and why talent isn’t everything.
  • Coming Soon: A detailed breakdown of Blake Bortles’ game.
  • Coming Soon: What Teddy Bridgewater’s feet say about his game.
  • Coming Soon: Discerning starter and superstar vision and agility in a running back.
  • Coming Soon: No-Huddle Series – Cal TE Richard Rodgers
  • Coming Soon: Senior Bowl Reports (late January) – I decided to apply for media credentials as the RSP rather than do joint work with other groups. You’ll find most of my takes and practice reports here.

Views I – Amazing

[youtube=http://youtu.be/MNCzSfv4hX8]

While it won’t shock me if he comes to his end doing this, I’d be floored if he’d desire to have it any other way.

Reads (Football)

[youtube=http://youtu.be/8htJVyavMvo]

Reads (Non-Football)

Views II – “The Jive Turkey” 

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wfQ0QAiqSUI&start=314&w=420&h=315]

I’m considering this for next Thanksgiving with my fried turkey. I want to blow my dad’s mind.

Views III – I Haven’t Watched It Yet, But The Subject Intrigues Me

[youtube=http://youtu.be/6wXkI4t7nuc]

On Scouting Wide Receivers

0 Comments read 2011 NFL Draft, 2012 NFL Draft, 2013 NFL Draft, 2014 NFL Draft, Players, Wide Receiver
If you're trying to find the next Dez Bryant, then data has a vital place but if you take the approach that tries to reverse engineer a process that is unintentionally based on the idea that all productive receivers are like Dez Bryant, it's misguided. Photo by A.J. Guel.
If you’re trying to find the next Dez Bryant, then data has a vital place but if you take the approach that tries to reverse engineer a process that is unintentionally based on the idea that all productive receivers are like Dez Bryant, it’s misguided. Photo by A.J. Guel.

I believe analytics have value, but the grading of wide receivers based heavily on speed, vertical skill, and production is an ambitious, but misguided idea. Further the application is the torturing of data to fit it into a preconceived idea and making it sound objective and scientific due to the use of quantitative data.  Unless the data is getting into some Nate Silver-like probability analysis, analytics is going to arrive at conclusions that are safe based on the past, but lack game-changing predictive value.

Some of my colleagues and friends at Football Outsiders, Pro Football Focus, and RotoViz will disagree.  And many of you will too, because you’ve bought the idea that what’s being studied is objective and scientific. There is often an air of certainty and black-and-white finality to the communication of this “quantitative” information that readers find more palatable than if “qualitative” information is delivered with the same tone. Numbers make people sound more powerful and intellectual even if the quality of the information isn’t well designed.

I can tell you that I write because I put words together in a pattern that you can read. It doesn’t mean that I’m writing well. The NFL has bought into analytics for reasons that are both sound and naive. Analytics should only get better over time and I believe in its future. I just don’t buy into it lock, stock, and barrel.  I think in this area of study with wide receivers, analytics needs to raise its standard and find another way.

The NFL will realize this about some methods of analytics sooner than later. Many teams are seeking a magic pill without fully understanding the manufacturing process that goes into it. Since they have been able to get this information for a modest fee and oftentimes at no charge in the early days (and we’re just emerging from the earliest of days in the era of analytics)  because these individuals and companies found the payment of notoriety an acceptable alternative to money.

It only makes sense that “quants” figured they could make the money off readers later if they couldn’t earn it from teams now. This dynamic is also changing, but it’s worth understanding the nature behind their relationship with the league. Fortunately for both parties, they will continue to work together and only deliver better products on and off the field.

I’m trying to do the same from a different vantage point. The more I watch wide receivers, the less I care about 40 times, vertical results, or broad jumps. Once a player meets the acceptable baselines for physical skills, the rest is about hands, technique, understanding defenses, consistency, and the capacity to improve.

I liked Kenbrell Thompkins, Marlon Brown, Austin Collie, (retired) Steve Smith, several other receivers lacking the headlining “analytical” formulas that use a variety of physical measurements and production to find “viable” prospects. What these players share is some evidence of “craft”. They weren’t perfect technicians at the college level or early in their NFL careers, but you could see evidence of a meticulous attention to detail that continued to get better.

This video does an excellent job of explaining why speed is the most overrated part of a wide receiver’s game. Speed should be seen as the icing and not the cake. Technique is the cake. It’s a great instructional guide on route releases and breaks, how they differ on the NFL level. Check it out. I continue to on a regular basis.

[youtube=http://youtu.be/ZLjgZc0sYIc]

For analysis of skill players in this year’s draft class, download the 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio available now. Better yet, if you’re a fantasy owner the 56-page Post-Draft Add-on comes with the 2013 RSP at no additional charge and available for download within a week after the NFL Draft. Best, yet, 10 percent of every sale is donated to Darkness to Light to combat sexual abuse. You can purchase past editions of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio for just $9.95 apiece.

What is Integrated Technique?

0 Comments read Players
Brandon Lloyd embodies the term
Brandon Lloyd embodies the term “integrated skill sets,” see below. Photo by Jeffery Beall.

In the world of draftniks, the word ‘intangibles’ is often a catchall term that explains a smart player without NFL skill sets. Sometimes those using the term make the mistake to include players who possess what I call an integrated skill set. Find out what that means and why it’s the difference between a good prospect and a good NFL player

I dislike the term ‘intangibles.’ NFL Films analyst and producer Greg Cosell often says that when he hears someone describe a player as either ‘a winner’ or possessing great intangibles his first reaction is that it’s probably a sign that he can’t play. It’s practically a sound byte of his between February and August.

I understand his inclination to make this conclusion, because if no physical skill or positional craft come to mind as the first things you’d say about a player then it’s a potential red flag. It’s like a man or woman describing a potential date for a friend as having a great personality but omitting any description of looks. Just like dating, we want to be physically impressed by football players.

There are players with good, if not great, physical skills but what really separates them from the pack is their ability to make unusual or consistently timely plays. Sometimes these plays are a matter of awareness of what’s happening on the field that few can assimilate into action this fast. Other examples involve more physical skill that happens at such a high rate of speed and fluidity of movement that the act appears instinctive.

I don’t believe it’s instinctive. I believe it’s learned behavior. Perhaps intuitive, but even so, I believe intuition comes from experience enough situations to react quickly and in control – especially as an athlete.

Brandon Lloyd is one of the most intuitive pass catchers in the history of the game. His physical dimensions are average at best for an NFL receiver and his speed is below average. But when it comes to his spatial awareness of the ball, his body, his opponent’s body, and the field of play, he’s straight out of the Matrix Trilogy.

[youtube=http://youtu.be/Q31BRc3RgyE]

The first catch on this highlight video is still one of the most amazing feats I have ever seen on a football field. If you haven’t had your quota of sick catches for the day here are more. You’re welcome.

Despite this caliber of talent being easy to spot in receivers, it’s not limited to the position. It’s not limited to football. Knicks point guard Jason Kidd has always had it. It’s why at 39 he’s still playing at a high level.

What these players have in common is a keen awareness and control of one’s body in relationship to his environment. Some might define this as an aspect of on-field awareness or football intelligence. It also qualifies to some degree as uncanny athleticism.

To define this awareness further, I see players like Northern Illinois wide receiver Martel Moore (who you can read about in this Saturday’s Futures at Football Outsiders) exhibit skills that are difficult to teach a player at a stage of development as advanced as someone playing college football: catching the football with a wide radius from one’s body and accurately tracking its arrival from a difficult angle all while gauging the position and distance of an opponent or boundary. This caliber of skill is really an integration of several individual traits like balance, timing, athleticism, and hand-eye coordination. Several prospects are lauded every year for possessing one or more of these individual traits, but they often cannot put them together on the football field when it counts.

Perhaps the best way to describe what I’m talking about is to say that Moore, and players like him, often exhibit what I’m now going to say is an integrated skill set–or Integrated Technique, another way to define the “IT Factor”.

Robert Meachem is a player who has struggled to integrate his skill sets despite having physical talent that is Pro Bowl-caliber. Photo by Vamostigres.
Robert Meachem is a player who has struggled to integrate his skill sets despite having physical talent that is Pro Bowl-caliber. Photo by Vamostigres.

Brandon Lloyd has integrated skill sets. Robert Meachem has a bunch of physical skills that don’t integrate well on the football field and it’s why he routinely struggles. David Wilson and Bryce Brown have some amazing amounts of integrated skill sets, but ball security was so disconnected with the rest of their games that they have required an adjustment period despite flashing a ton of talent. Colin Kaepernick’s arm, physical strength, and speed, intelligence at the line of scrimmage, and accuracy on timing throws are becoming integrated skill sets. However, ball placement according to the location of the receiver in relation to coverage is not yet integrated into his game. If it were, Randy Moss and Vernon Davis would have each scored twice against the Patriots.

As this 2013 draft evaluation season unfolds and you read my description of a player possessing integrated skill sets, think back to this explanation. It may not mean that the player is ready to start in the NFL, but the description will indicate that his physical skills, his mental processing of his techniques, and his awareness the environment around him are integrated at a level that he’s more often ‘playing’ rather than ‘thinking.’ His processor speed is high and that’s the difference between talented NFL prospects and productive NFL players.

The 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio will be available for pre-order in March. The 2012 RSP is available for download and past issues (2006-2011) are available for $9.95. Ten percent of all sales are donated to Darkness to Light to help train communities to understand and prevent the dynamics of sexual abuse. 

Futures: WR Marquess Wilson

0 Comments read Players, Wide Receiver

Futures: WR Marquess Wilson

by Matt Waldman

This week’s Futures is about more than Marquess Wilson. It’s about the dynamics of power within college football programs and the risks that come with questioning their authority. For most of us outside the situation, it’s about being willing to reserve judgment about a player’s decisions when we may never know the truth behind them. Most of all, this week’s column addresses the mindset that I think a scout or personnel director should utilize when evaluating a football player who left his college team on bad terms.

Tall, wiry, and athletic, Wilson had a chance to go in the top half of the 2013 NFL Draft. Some analysts dinged the former Washington State receiver because they speculated that he’s too thin. If there were a physical template that scouts and draftniks used to determine the body type of a first-round talent at the position, Wilson’s 6-foot-3, 188-pound frame isn’t an exact match.

I’m not concerned if Wilson is lighter than prototypes like Andre Johnson, Demaryius Thomas, or Vincent Jackson. Robert Meachemhas all the physical characteristics a football team wants from a wide receiver, but I’ve never liked his game. Meachem makes the act of catching a ball look like it requires a doctorate in quantum mechanics. And forget about routes –- I’ve seen out-of-town drivers who lost their GPS connection look less confused with their surroundings.

The way I see it, once a player meets the physical baselines to perform in the league, the rest of it is little more than a potential bonus. I say “potential” because these skills have to be harnessed into technique. Otherwise, you have a great athlete who cannot play fast, strong, or smart because he’s thinking rather than reacting.

This is why I am more concerned with positional skills. Knowledge, precision, and technical skill determine whether speed, strength, and agility will be used productively. A 5-foot-11, 188-pound receiver with great technical skill will play stronger, faster, and smarter than a 6-foot-2, 215-pound prospect without it. In other words, put Meachem’s game side-by-side with Marvin Harrison’s and it’s no contest.

Wilson demonstrates enough physical skill to develop into an NFL starter. He’s effective at shielding defenders with his body. He catches the football with his hands. Wilson has the height to win on the perimeter and in the red zone, yet the slippery power and arsenal of moves to avoid direct hits as a ball carrier through the shallow zones of a defense. The Cougars loved to feature his combination of skill sets on fades, smoke screens, slants, and vertical routes with double moves.

Wilson can set up a route in single-coverage and he flashes some promise working against the jam, but he has a ways to go. He has to develop better technique with his hands and shoulders to defeat press coverage while still moving down field. Otherwise, his tendency to lean away from contact slows his release from the line of scrimmage and it can ruin the timing of his routes.

Wilson is not a prospect with rare ability. However, he has enough NFL characteristics in his game that, with enough development, he could become an asset in a starting lineup. Several draft analysts believed he was one of the top-five receiving prospects at the beginning of the season. Until last month, I believed Wilson had a chance to be a second- or third-round pick.

I’m giving you the executive summary on Wilson’s game because the more fascinating question about the former Washington State receiver is the fallout from his imbroglio with head coach Mike Leach. There are dynamics of this story that parallel past incidents where a player and football program didn’t see eye-to-eye and NFL teams made a mistake to trust the program.

Sometimes the consequences for the player are deserved. Read the rest at Football Outsiders

Talent and Production: The Great Emotional Divide

0 Comments read Matt Waldman
Brandon Marshall epitomizes the unpredictability of determining the mental-emotional makeup of a player making a successful transition to professional football. Photo by Geoffrey Beall.

This is my seventh year studying the on-field performance of football players. I can say unequivocally that I know more about the techniques and strategy of the game than I knew when I began. I’m also beginning to realize that I have learned just as much about player evaluation during the four months I have spent creating content for this blog. However, much of what I have learned from my interviews of colleagues has less to do with technique, strategy, or what to physically seek from a player and more to do with what none of us know.

Things that even NFL GMs and personnel directors will never know for sure:

How a player will manage the great emotional divide that must be crossed in order to transition from college talent to productive pro.

The process is something that my friend and colleague Sigmund Bloom describes as trying to gain a complete view of a scene when the vantage point is through a keyhole. We only have clues that help us determine whether a player is equipped to cross this break. Continue reading →

Dan Shonka Part III: Positional School

0 Comments read Matt Waldman

[youtube=http://youtu.be/Q6SEXGAqVus]

Dan Shonka explains why former Arkansas safety Steve Atwater is a great example of how technique that was once lacking can be honed to a point that it brings forth other great skills lying beneath the surface.

I think it’s accurate to describe Ourlads’ Dan Shonka as one of the ultimate practitioners of football evaluation. Shonka has 39 years of football experience as a player, college recruiter, college coach, and a combined 16 years as a NFL scout for National Scouting Service, the Philadelphia Eagles, the Washington Redskins, and the Kansas City Chiefs.

Last week, Shonka agreed to speak with me about scouting, players, and the NFL. The scheduled 60 minutes became two hours of football talk that flew by. Dan was afraid I got more than I bargained for, but I told him that I got exactly what I wanted – just more than I could have expected.

I asked Shonka to indulge me in a game where I named a position on the field and he talked about skills he looked for that could or couldn’t be learned if the player didn’t exhibit them in the college game. Continue reading →

NFL Draft Scout’s Chad Reuter – Part IV

0 Comments read Matt Waldman
Chad Reuter and Matt Waldman explain that learning about the game of football comes down to good, old-fashioned hard work. Photo by Duke Yearlook

If you thought ESPN analyst Matt Williamson’s path to becoming a paid evaluator of talent was unusual, consider NFL Draft Scout.com senior analyst Chad Reuter. The Wisconsin native lacks a football background, but he managed to transform a hobby into a job because of his tremendous analytical skills, sincere passion for the game, and a veteran scout’s work ethic. In this multi-part conversation, Reuter and I spent a couple of hours discussing a variety of topics related to player evaluation.

In Part I of this conversation, Chad and I discuss why he enjoys studying offensive line play, evaluating technique versus results, and balancing these two behaviors with the craft of projecting a player’s future in the NFL. In Part II  we covered Reuter’s path to  studying football as a full-time job, a defensive position that is difficult to evaluate, and why “instincts” and “intangibles” may not be innate after all. In Part III, Chad and I discuss sabermetrics and football, the mathematical logic of drafting a quarterback in the first round, and the importance of tiers when building a draftboard.

The final part of our conversation covers Reuter’s typical work process as a talent analyst and the resources he recommends to the general audience to become students of the game.

Waldman: Share with everyone what your typical day at work is like to completely a long-term project of scouting all draft-eligible players for a given season?

Reuter: The process occurs in stages. You study film for 12 months. A lot of the film work on rising seniors and juniors comes immediately after the draft. You want to get ready for the approaching season and to get the know the players. During that time and throughout the summer, you’re watching tape, you’re researching, and learning about the senior prospects and underclassmen with the end goal of producing our preseason draft guide in August. It’s not just a matter of watching tape, but also looking through media guide information. You’re also talking to sources to find out about any off-field stuff. You want to know as much as you can going into the year. During the summer, I’m working between 8am-6pm at a minimum during the week.  During the weekends I try to put in anywhere between 4-8 hours each day depending on what else is going on – including trying to maintain some sort of life outside of this.

Waldman: How do you try to maintain a life outside of this?

Reuter: You try to schedule things in a way where you find time to work around those events. If we’re going out in the afternoon then I try to do work in the morning.

Waldman: Based on my own level of self-awareness, I would think it takes somewhat of an obsessive personality to do this job.

Reuter: Yeah, I think that’s right. Continue reading →

NFL Draft Scout’s Chad Reuter-Part III

0 Comments read Matt Waldman
Despite the low success rate of first-round quarterbacks, Chad Reuter explains why drafting a QB in subsequent rounds who turns out even as productive as Matt Hasselbeck is a rarity. Photo by Matt McGee

If you thought ESPN analyst Matt Williamson’s path to becoming a paid evaluator of talent was unusual, consider NFL Draft Scout.com senior analyst Chad Reuter. The Wisconsin native lacks a football background, but he managed to transform a hobby into a job because of his tremendous analytical skills, sincere passion for the game, and a veteran scout’s work ethic. In this multi-part conversation, Reuter and I spent a couple of hours discussing a variety of topics related to player evaluation.

In Part I of this conversation, Chad and I discuss why he enjoys studying offensive line play, evaluating technique versus results, and balancing these two behaviors with the craft of projecting a player’s future in the NFL. In Part II  we covered Reuter’s path to  studying football as a full-time job, a defensive position that is difficult to evaluate, and why “instincts” and “intangibles” may not be innate after all. In this segment, Chad and I discuss sabermetrics and football, the mathematical logic of drafting a quarterback in the first round, and the importance of tiers when building a draftboard.

Waldman: There’s a growing camp of  sabermetricians in football as well as the football media. While many understand why Bill Belicheck might use data to learn the odds strategic decisions, there are others who believe football can never completely embrace the Moneyball route.   It’s obvious that you are both fluent in statistics and the craft of film evaluation. What’s your take on these two camps?

Reuter:  I think data analysis is little more than a study of history. And I think you have to be cognizant of history when you are evaluating players — not just on the statistical side, but grouping characteristics with guys such as similarities in styles, size, etc.

But you can’t be a slave to it. Continue reading →