Posts tagged Robert Griffin

Robert Griffin Part II: Reasons For Hope and Watching Grass Grow

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Part I’s analysis of Robert Griffin focuses on the relationship between Robert Griffin’s injury and Washington’s offensive scheme. It also raises questions about building an offense around a young player’s legs and its consequences. Part II examines how the weaknesses of this offense creates a vicious cycle of degradation to Griffin’s game, but there are also several reasons for hope if Griffin can hang tough.

Last year, I posted an analysis from a writer who was critical of Robert Griffin’s game and the Washington offensive system. The overall reader feedback was negative and some of their points had merit. Yet, there was an overall emotional tenor from readers that was rooted in denial that Griffin could be statistically good and still a flawed young player. Last year Griffin was mostly a one-read quarterback in an offense that augmented his athleticism while diminishing any reliance on his weaknesses.

This year, the herd is far more open to criticizing Griffin. Many people will say the quarterback is the dysfunctional force on Washington’s football team. If you read Sally Jenkins’ Washington Post editorial, she believes Griffin is a manipulative locker room lawyer with a forked tongue. Jenkins might argue that her take based on conversations with whatever sources she has in Washington is more nuanced than what I described, but I’m just calling it like I read it.

I agree that Griffin is a dysfunctional force. He’s the quarterback and leader of a dysfunctional offense and the marketing face of this team. He has made statements to the press that has elicited criticism about his methods of communication, his willingness to learn new skills, and his overall leadership.

But the dysfunctional force in Washington is the leadership above Griffin. They are enabling the behavior of a young player who needs the organization to guide him. The coaches and front office need to provide guidance and enforce boundaries for Griffin’s conversations with the media.

For this team it’s easier said than done. The true head of this organization has been questioned about his leadership for years. I also think Daniel Snyder displaying a similar myopia about his team’s name that – regardless of how you feel about the issue – will ultimately place Washington’s owner on the wrong side of history if he continues to resist the growing public sentiment for change. Like water, leadership flows downhill. So do the pollutants.

From what I see on the field this year, Griffin still has all the building blocks to develop into a good leader. He’s comfortable with risk, he’s tough as nails, and there’s a resiliency to his game despite the punishment that he’s taking on and off the field. The concern is that prolonged punishment can wear down any player.

However, there is evidence that Washington’s coaching staff is transitioning Griffin to a more pocket-friendly game. The staff is taking a gradual process with the offense, which for the public is like watching grass grow. If you’re a Washington fan, there’s reason for hope. If you’re a fantasy football owner, stay patient. I still believe Griffin will have an excellent career as a starting quarterback.

Max Protection: Mixed Results Continued

As I illustrated last week, Washington’s max protection schemes are designed to provide Griffin time in the pocket and simple choices. However, Washington’s offensive line continues to struggle even when there’s additional help and this places more pressure on its quarterback to make excellent decisions and execute at a near-perfect level in situations where there’s a higher degree of difficulty and potential for even greater criticism. Nothing like having a lower pass percentage with fewer receivers to target per play than your peers and more pressure while delivering that target.

Here’s Washington’s first offensive play from yesterday’s game against the Chargers. It’s a two-route scheme with max protection at Washington’s own goal line.

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San Diego rushes three defenders and drops eight. Washington should have no problem protecting three defensive linemen with seven players, right? In theory this is correct; in practice, the line’s struggles are disappointing.

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Griffin executes a play fake as his receivers release from the line of scrimmage. Griffin does a good job turning his back and extending the ball to the runner’s belly to sell the play action. The right tackle will get beat by No.91 and because the fullback had to work towards the outside linebacker, who drops into coverage, he could not provide a double team.

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The fullback tries a late attempt to help the right tackle as the outside linebacker he was assigned to block drops into coverage with the other three linebackers, but No.91 splits the fullback and tackle and is within a steps of Griffin. Just like last week’s Broncos game, the linebackers are dropping and spread in position to take away the underneath game and stop Griffin from running. Griffin knows where he’s throwing as soon as his back foot plants at the end of his drop. These are simple route concepts designed for him to get rid of the ball fast. However, this pressure will require an even faster release than designed.

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Griffin is nearing the apex of his release point just as the Chargers defensive end hits the quarterback square. The wide receiver is open, but it would help if the quarterback isn’t covered by a 300-pound lineman.

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Griffin manages to get the ball out despite getting hit, but the pass is understandably lacking velocity and accuracy and falls behind Pierre Garcon. This is a routine occurrence for Griffin this year and a big reason for a drop in yards per attempt and completion percentage. I don’t care who the quarterback is, if he can’t get a clean pocket to deliver the ball without getting hit before releasing the football he’s not going to have consistent, efficient production.

Here’s a max protection scheme that works and the difference between this play and the one above is that Griffin has a clean pocket to deliver the football.

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Notice the wrinkle that Washington is using more often with its pistol zone read option scheme: the deep back swinging to the perimeter. Griffin will often keep the ball and then wait for the outside containment to commit to him and then pitch the ball to this deep back. Washington is also sending Santana Moss in motion behind Griffin just before the snap and running a variation of this play to the receiver. These plays were effective against the Chargers as change-ups to their bread-and-butter runs.

On this play, Griffin executes the read option exchange with the back to his left and then drops to deliver the ball down field to Garcon who is split left. San Diego sends five and drops six into coverage; three of those defenders in the deep range of the field but split wide enough for Washington to find an opening in its zone.

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The Chargers’ safety at the left hash drops deep enough for Garcon to break under the defender and the linebackers are shallow enough that the quarterback’s throw is an easy one.

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Griffin finishes the play fake and has a spotless pocket to deliver the ball in rhythm to Garcon. If the receiver didn’t come open, the outlet receiver on the left side also appears open for a check-down. It’s a well-designed play if the defense is concerned about playing the run. Alfred Morris is doing a fine job of generating that kind of attention.

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Griffin’s pass is on-time and Garcon has the room to work across the field and up the sideline for a nice gain. Simplicity is genius and when it worked consistently last year, everyone proclaimed Griffin a quarterback genius. When it stopped working as well this year, they are critical of Griffin’s development. But I think Washington has always been aware that this offensive scheme is limited and it is just the first step in its plan to develop Griffin into a complete player.

They’re also aware that the transition will be gradual and the downside will be complaints from the public about Griffin and the simplicity of the scheme. However for the sake of maintaining a secure game plan, they aren’t going to be transparent with the public about what they’re doing. Their job is to do the exact opposite – keep it private and hopefully over time, the results will clam the public concern.

Single Reads – Tight Windows (No Pass Protection, No Patience w/first?)

Because Washington’s offense is having difficulty protecting Griffin with max protection schemes, an unintended consequence is its quarterback displaying a lack patience in the pocket. Ask David Carr, Blaine Gabbert, Trent Edwards, and a variety of early-round quarterback prospects who were pummeled early in their careers and lost their accuracy, their poise, and their aggressive mindset. Griffin isn’t at the stage where he has become shell shocked, but he is exhibiting some minor symptoms.

Here’s a play where Griffin targets his tight end Jordan Reed up the seam, but he forces the ball to get rid of it early rather than stay patient and read the field. The Chargers have eight defenders within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage with one safety deep. Right away, Griffin should be thinking about his wide receiver split to the left with a defender most likely playing off-man coverage.

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At the snap, the safety drops to his right, which is among the first things Griffin should notice. This validates the idea that the Washington quarterback should target his wide receiver at the left sideline on some type of curl, hook, comeback. In this case, the receiver is running a comeback.

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The Chargers blitz one defender, sending a four-man front towards the pocket as Griffin receives the snap from the gun.

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Look at all the space up the sideline with just one defender in the area. This should be the primary option on this play, but Griffin has eyes for Reed up the seam. Griffin hopes the tight end inside Reed will occupy the linebacker just inside the right hash so Reed has room to separate against the outside linebacker. Even so, this is a tight window and a riskier play than waiting for the outside receiver to come open on a deep route – unless of course you’re the quarterback working with an offensive line that has difficulty protecting you from three defenders in a max protection scheme. While Griffin is making a conceptual mistake, I understand his logic.

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Griffin sees that the inside linebacker has dropped deep enough to take away both tight end rounds. However, Reed doesn’t make the adjustment on his route that Griffin is anticipating. The Washington quarterback wants to throw the ball behind the linebacker at the left lash, which requires Reed to take a more vertical break rather than break inside as hard as he is.

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As Griffin delivers the ball down field and behind the linebacker, the tight end is not in position to make the play because of his break. The result is an overthrown pass. Note that the receiver running the comeback is still working on his route and Griffin has a lot of space in the pocket to wait for it.  The patience isn’t there because he’s been smacked around enough not to hang in the pocket.

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As the ball reaches the turf, note the receiver on the left beginning his break. With more consistent protection, Griffin will have more opportunities to display patience. The concern is will Griffin be able to withstand the storm until then? I don’t have a definitive answer. His toughness thus far is reason for optimism, but it’s no guarantee.

Single Reads-Tight Windows

Griffin’s elite arm strength and potential to develop pinpoint accuracy gives him potential to develop into an elite pocket passer. This play on 3rd and 11 isn’t the type of target that has everyone gushing over Aaron Rodgers, but it’s within the same spectrum and a good completion that offers future development along those lines.

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Griffin has four receivers in routes on this 3rd-and-11 pass versus one safety deep, but eight defenders dropping into coverage. Once again, Griffin targets Reed.

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A quick drop and release as the two outside receivers run routes of similar depth to force the defenders to focus more on this two-route combination as Reed breaks just behind (and inside) of them.

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Good throw, good catch, first down. This doesn’t seem like a tight window, but if the perspective of this photo was the coaches tape or a shot from the pocket, it would be apparent that this pass required a fair amount of precision. As this offense provides better protection for Griffin, we’ll see more routes with multiple receivers and fewer two and three-man routes with max protection.

Here’s a money throw that put Washington in position to win. It was a clutch throw and catch in overtime.

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This is a max protection play with two receivers versus eight defenders dropping into coverage on 1st and 20. Washington gives its two receivers a chance to get behind the linebackers by slowing their drops with Griffin’s play fake. Even this late in the game, Griffin issues a play fake with his back to the defense, selling the action.

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A quick drop, turn, and Griffin is beginning his release as Garcon plants his outside leg to begin his break inside. Based on the coverage, it’s apparent this is going to be a tight-window throw.

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The success of the ground game has given Griffin a nice pocket to deliver the ball and he hits Garcon between the linebacker and the safety. What I like about this play is that Griffin displays pinpoint accuracy, but a better throw would have been to the receiver’s back shoulder so Garcon wasn’t lead into the teeth of the defense. This is a fine point that currently defines the difference between Griffin’s passing skills and that of more refined passers in the NFL.

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Garcon makes the catch, and to his credit, he made at least three receptions in this game on errant targets in tight coverage that required difficult adjustments – two of them one-handed catches down field. These aren’t high percentage throws, but Griffin could do a more to increase the odds. While the placement was bad, the accuracy was good. Garcon makes the catch and then displays great effort to work past the safety for the first down in field goal range, settling up an eventual game-winning touchdown.

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Here’s a difficult throw from the Denver game where the pocket wasn’t clean and the result is an accurate, but high placement that makes his receiver’s job a difficult one.

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Denver will send five and drop six against four receivers. The target is the outside trips receiver on this play.

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Griffin will have to throw this ball against two safeties deep and a corner taking away the outside. Look at the left guard in this photo and the next two after it and you’ll see why this throw will be a difficult one.

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Griffin delivers the ball with a hand in his face and close to impeding the motion of the quarterback’s release. The result is a high placement. The window as the line of scrimmage is tight enough that I’m not convinced Griffin could have delivered this target lower than he did.

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The receiver get his hands on the ball, but this extension with contact to his back is a difficult play. It’s expected he should make this catch, but the pressure from the pocket made the stakes high.

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The hit knocks the ball loose and the safety almost earns an interception – see below.

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Here are two more from last week where Griffin encounters pressure in his face that alters his release and the course of the play.

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This time, note the left side of the line getting bull rushed into its own quarterback.

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Griffin’s routes on this 3rd-and-7 are slow-developing and he’s trying to remain patient with them rather than opting for a check-down early.

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Griffin times his release with a defender in his sight line with the receiver. The result is a high throw.

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And an overthrow . . .

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More pressure from Griffin’s blindside on this play and the result is similar to some of the plays over the middle that I’ve already shown.

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Griffin provides a solid play fake but the pressure off left guard forces a throw on an intermediate cross that is behind the receiver.

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Far from a clean pocket to deliver the ball with a defender’s helmet on Griffin’s outside shoulder.

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This play is why it’s rarely simple to pinpoint the source of a problem on one player or unit – it’s all interrelated.

Multiple Reads: Signs of Progress

There are plays in both games where Griffin not only makes multiple reads, but he navigates the pocket under duress and finishes with an accurate throw. Here’s a short pass in the red zone from yesterday’s game. Griffin’s first two reads are the post an crossing route that accidentally meet at the same spot at the same time. The next two reads are a shallow cross by the tight end (blue line) and a drag route from the wing back.

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As Griffin finish his drop, there’s a traffic jam with the potential for a pile up. I don’t know who erred on their route depth or choice, but there’s a good chance this play will be nicknamed “Congress” in the film room.

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Griffin has good protection to deliver the ball, but there’s no shot for him to find an open man on this side of the field. Knowing his time is limited, he turns to the right where the shallow cross is breaking open.

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Griffin delivers the ball where his receiver should make the catch for the touchdown. The tight end unfortunately leaves his feet and takes contact as he makes the catch, knocking the receiver away from the goal line.

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Still, this is a good play from Griffin. Here’s a similar situation in the red zone against the Broncos last week where he faces pressure and still makes the play.

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This time, three receivers are working in the right quadrant of the defense with the potential for a pick play between the tight end and receiver inside the five.

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It appears the shallow cross under neath the two receivers at the goal line is the target Griffin considers, but pressure off right tackle forces the quarterback to abandon this read.

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Griffin feels the pressure below and has to slide away from a potential sack, reset and deliver the ball elsewhere.

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Good slide to keep his feet set and remain in a throwing position with his eyes down field. Although Griffin may sometimes lose patience due to the consistent pressure he’s seeing every week, he’s not perceiving pressure or losing focus. One thing Griffin can do as well as anyone I’ve watched is take punishment and come back for more. This was the case at Baylor and has remained as such in Washington. Hopefully the offensive line can eliminate the need for Griffin to be a heavy back for 300-pounders.

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Griffin spots his man working inside and delivers a strike between defenders for the touchdown.

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Another delivery in a tight pocket. It’s encouraging he’s comfortable doing it, but there’s no doubt Washington wants to reduce these tight-pocket deliveries with a big guy in Griffin’s face.

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Progress One Week Later: Checking Down 

Last week, Griffin ignored some check-downs on early down passes. This week, Griffin got the memo. Here’s another one of Washington’s max protect packages where the team gives the look of a potential option run, but Griffin drops to throw deep.

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If the Chargers bite on the run fake, at least four of the seven Chargers defenders will be close enough to the line of scrimmage that Griffin will have an easy throw in the intermediate range of the field. This is what was so successful for Washington last year. Now, linebackers aren’t reacting with the same aggression to these run fakes as often and it’s tightening the passing lanes for Griffin.

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As the Washington quarterback drops, there are seven Chargers in coverage and not a lot of room to operate. The photo below illustrates the Griffin was ready to deliver this ball in rhythm to the receiver on a vertical route: his feet are planted and his shoulders are angled for a deeper throw.

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However, Griffin remembers that against the Broncos last week, he delivered multiple deep throws in double coverage without success. He turns to his right, spots Reed on the swing route and sets his feet to lead the tight end down field.

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Good throw outside and down field, giving Reed a shot to beat the defender over top for a positive gain.

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Four yards on 2nd and 7? Washington will take that every time.

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The Fine Line Between Toughness and Recklessness

There is a hot debate among some long-time analysts about players with Griffin’s skills as a runner. Greg Cosell’s mantra is that a quarterback has to win from the pocket and that mobile quarterbacks increase their odds of injury. Others believe that mobile quarterbacks who run don’t get hurt as often when they leave the pocket as they do standing in the pocket taking hits. I agree with the second sentiment until I see valid data that illustrates otherwise. However, there are situations where I think mobile quarterbacks have to display more restraint.

This 3rd-and-9 scramble in a tie game in the third quarter is a good example of a play where Griffin does the spectacular, but generates a lot of ambivalence as someone who wants to see the Washington quarterback have a good career.

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Griffin has four receivers working down field as he drops from the gun, but the coverage is good early.

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After Griffin’s initial plant and survey, the best option might be the shallow cross, but in this down and distance situation, Griffin tries to remain patient for something to come open with the slower-developing routes. Unfortunately, Griffin has to slide to his right to find an open lane and this opens the edge for the pass rush.

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Griffin now must turn to his left and climb the pocket.

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Pressure up the middle forces Griffin to tuck and run. Now, running back Roy Helu must become a blocker. Griffin has over 20 yards to run for a shot at the first down and the angles the defense has on the quarterback are good enough to prevent the conversion.

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If I had to guess, I’d say Griffin’s speed is probably about 80-85 percent back but the confidence and or stability in the knee to make quick-twitch cuts and moves is not there. Griffin opts to split the defenders with angles on him at the sideline by making like Superman.

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Griffin picks up a block from Helu while airborne but his trajectory towards earth doesn’t make for a smooth landing.

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There’s a name for this finishing move in wrestling, depending on the wrestler. Griffin earns the first down and pops up for another play. But what about three years from now? Five years? 10 years? I love Griffin’s toughness, but I think his risk-taking extends past the line of toughness, passes recklessness, and is approaching insanity.

This is why Washington is working plays into the offense that aren’t just read option looks. However, the team’s best chance to win now will be a healthy Griffin using his arms and legs. In three, five, and 10 years, it will be with a stronger offensive line and reliable receivers on pinpoint throws. It’s straddling both worlds of offensive systems required to win now and prepare Griffin for later that makes this a bumpy ride – especially with the injury.

If Griffin can remain patient and stay healthy, he has shown the toughness, arm strength, pocket presence, and flashes of pinpoint accuracy to continue along a path towards stardom. There are signs of progress, but as long as there’s pressure reaching the pocket – even against max protection – Griffin will take enough punishment that could alter any quarterback’s approach to the game for the worse. I think Washington is doing the best it can with the personnel it has to win games and continue its quarterback’s development.

Front office leadership’s leadership in the draft, free agency, and financial management will be critical factors that can tip the scales either way for Griffin’s development. The team needs an infusion of talent and cap friendly contracts so there’s both quantity and quality. Thus far, its track record hasn’t been good under Snyder’s tenure. Hopefully Bruce Allen’s work in the front office will turn the tide, but it requires off-field analysis I have no interest in other than its outcome for Griffin.

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“The Degradation of a Young Stud – Part I” Starring Robert Griffin

There are a ton of questions, but no easy answers for the Washington offense.
There are a ton of questions, but no easy answers for the Washington offense.

Sounds like an adult film, right? It is and it isn’t. What I witnessed from Washington’s passing offense against Denver this weekend was so nasty it will compel viewers take a long shower afterwards.  Equally disturbing is that this film possesses a lot of elements of an exploitation flick. I had a difficult time watching an innocent, young talent treated this way. Worst of all, it’s difficult to assess blame and there in lurks the elements of psychological horror that chills the blood.

What we’re witnessing with Robert Griffin is the side of the double-edged sword that can cut the wielder. Last year, Washington took the risk and went all-in with an offensive philosophy that leaned heavily on one exceptional skill set of a single player. This year, Robert Griffin – that individual who could diminish the collective weaknesses of his teammates – can’t do what he used to and his impairment is exploiting the weaknesses of this unit.

The knee injury offers the easiest answer to what’s ailing Griffin and Washington. However, there are more questions that I couldn’t shake when I watch the Denver game. Will Griffin ever regain his 2012 explosiveness? If he does, is this the best thing for his long-term development as an NFL quarterback? Is Washington’s offense stunting Griffin’s development in order to exploit his athleticism? Or, is this what happens when a team takes an aggressive approach to molding the scheme around its talent and that talent disappears? The horror is that there’s really no one to blame and feel satisfied.

Do you blame Griffin for getting hurt? Perhaps you blame Shanahan and Dr. James Andrews for not looking out for their rookie and the future of their team in a playoff game, but considering the culture of the players, the league, the fans, the media, and the coaches, it would be unrealistic and hypocritical.

Do you blame the Shanahans for developing an offense predicated on Griffin’s game-changing speed that has degraded from the genius of simplicity to just plain simplistic thanks to one anterior cruciate ligament? So we’ll laud Washington for maximizing what one player could do for the benefit of the organization last year, then criticize him for not knowing when or if that one player will return to the physical form required to make that offense take flight? Learn the second half of the phrase that starts Go big or . . .

Do you blame a weak offensive line that looked a lot better last year because one false move by a defense could lead to a 60-yard touchdown, putting the rest of the league on amber alert to every movement Griffin made between the snap of the ball and the official’s whistle? Do you blame Pierre Garcon for getting hurt and Washington’s patience with him and Griffin returning to form? Not me. Why would Washington try to revamp a team when it expects its quarterback to return to form at some point? There has to be some level of patience this year to determine if it will happen or if they’ll have to adjust.

I have no solutions to the questions that this performance raises, only sympathy.

The Knee Isn’t Firing on All Cylinders

My analysis begins with something I learned from Thursday night’s Carolina blowout of the Tampa Buccaneers, and it wasn’t on the field; it was an interview the analysts had with Darrelle Revis about his recovery from an ACL tear.

Revis consulted numerous players who had undergone the grueling rehab and returned the field. Most of them said that it was a bumpy ride where the knee would have moments where it would respond as old, but most of the athleticism wasn’t firing on all cylinders. They told Revis to remain patient and work through it. One day, the knee will respond, everything will fall into place, and he’ll feel back to normal.

When I’ve watched Griffin this season, I’ve seen him experiencing these ups and downs with his knee. This read option play against the Broncos illustrates that the initial quickness is back, but explosiveness required to make second and third moves back-to-back-to-back are not.

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This is your garden-variety zone read play. You have your linemen engaging in a pair of double teams where one of the players in each double team is supposed to work his way to a linebacker, the receivers run off their coverage, and the H-Back serves as Griffin’s lead blocker if the quarterback keeps the ball.

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The play begins as designed. As you can see Denver’s defense is patient. The linebackers and safeties are remaining disciplined to the possibility of Griffin keeping this exchange and the defensive end is maintaining his gap responsibility rather than crashing down the line of scrimmage to attack the running back. This is something Griffin and the Washington offense is seeing more often and it is a contributing factor to the drop in the quarterback’s yards per carry average. If you ask me, it’s not the biggest reason; it’s the knee.

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However on this play, the lead blocking could be a lot better. The H-Back doesn’t address the defensive end at all. Perhaps he’s taking an outside angle and expecting Griffin to do the same. Even so, the end is too quick and Griffin is too slow to bounce this outside with the angle the H-Back provides to the end without any resistance. Also note the safety at the left hash watching the play unfold. This is good depth. He’s still accounting for a potential crossing route from right to left so he’s above the receiver, but he’s well enough outside to stop Griffin if the quarterback breaks through the first level to the left flat.

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The H-Back works past the end towards the safety, leaving Griffin to beat the defensive end. If the H-Back even gave so much as a shove on the end, perhaps Griffin could have taken the ball outside and still show the speed to get separation. I think the H-Back should have helped here. Even so, based on what I’ve seen thus far I don’t think Griffin wins this foot race to the edge and if he does, the explosion to turn the corner isn’t there. Griffin opts to use his good leg to avoid the defender. He plants this healthy knee into the ground, and spins inside the end to avoid the tackle.

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As Griffin spins past the end, the H-Back has a good angle on the safety and it appears the running back is in position to work outside the left tackle Trent Williams to address the linebacker working outside Williams’ position. Once Griffin gets reoriented down hill, there’s enough space in the left flat for a positive gain.

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At this point, the blocks should be setting up so Griffin will only have one unblocked man to beat and if it doesn’t happen, he should still pick up enough help from his teammates for a gain of 4-5 yards. The problem is the H-Back, who overruns his angle to the safety.

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To compound matters, the H-Back isn’t fast enough to recover as Griffin attempts to bounce this run to the edge. Last year, Griffin had the explosion to drive off that braced knee and get outside No.82 if that H-Back actually gauged the correct angle to seal the safety inside. This year, no chance; there isn’t enough explosiveness to gloss over a poor angle from a teammate.

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Play over.

At this point, Griffin is about explosive as Aaron Rodgers. The Packers quarterback is a fine athlete capable of getting outside the pocket when flushed and he’ll gash a defense as a runner, but the Packers don’t design running plays as heavy part of its play-calling rotation. Understandably, Washington built its 2012 playoff team on the legs of Griffin. It’s also understandable why they didn’t change the offense after Griffin’s injury, hoping that the young quarterback would regain his explosion at some point during the season and the team could ride out the rough spots. It may still happen, but long-term is this what’s best for the team?

To be fair, if Washington did change the offense I have doubts the rest of the surrounding talent is capable of sustaining a high level of production for a pocket passer to thrive with the game’s current offensive concepts.

In its current incarnation, Kurt Cousins can’t run this offense close to the way a healthy Griffin can because he doesn’t break good defensive schemes with pure foot speed. Washington would have to change by necessity. However, the staff is clearly still holding out hope for old Griffin to return to form. This is the danger of designing an offense that leans so hard on one specific skill set of an individual player – especially a young passer who is still learning how to maximize his potential from the pocket.

As you will see below, this Washington offense – and really most offenses – is a delicately balanced series of processes that can go south fast when an integral part breaks. If you look closely at Atlanta’s scheme you’ll discover that the root cause of several ailments for the Falcons offense is Roddy White’s injury. He’s the one-on-one player that runs every style of route and possesses the timing with Matt Ryan to force opponents to single cover one of White, Julio Jones, and Tony Gonzalez on every play. He’s the player who makes teams pay in the intermediate range for biting on run fakes. And he’s the receiver who automatically draws the best cover corner even with a healthy Jones around.

When White started the season gimpy, the Falcons could still hit big plays to Julio Jones and Tony Gonzalez but there wasn’t enough consistent production down-to-down and that prevented the team from building momentum with play-calling and maintaining an advantage. Washington’s pivotal player is Griffin because of the offense’s reliance on the zone read and all the play action, max protection, and simple route concepts that they were able to build off it due to a defense’s fear of Griffin’s speed.

Now Griffin doesn’t have that same caliber of speed and the team is in limbo, running plays that don’t match Griffin’s current skill or his intellectual-football potential as a passer.

Max Protection-Minimum Results

Here’s a play that would have worked just fine last year with a healthy Griffin, but defenses aren’t buying because they know the quarterback isn’t capable of selling it. Two games from now if the explosion returns, sure. But what if it’s four games, eight games, or never? Right now the play below is obsolete.

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This is a diamond formation with two receivers at slot width from the line of scrimmage. These are the only two receivers running routes on this play against a Broncos defense that will drop six into coverage. Already, this doesn’t sound promising.

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Griffin begins his drop and his three backs set a perimeter to assist the offensive line. If I didn’t know better, it would appear the coaches are so worried about Griffin’s knee that they’re adding a second layer of protection behind the offensive line to insure the quarterback earns a clean pocket to throw the deep ball without a hit to his legs. I think the coaches are worried more about the offensive line’s difficulty protecting Griffin while he guts through an ACL rehab in record time.

If Washington is going to max protect, shouldn’t they be expecting a heavy pass rush? Is Griffin not reading the safeties’ position or is he not allowed t0 change the play to something better? This is an ugly play that makes Griffin look like he’s a first-year player lacking the intellectual sophistication to handle a pro offense. Again, I don’t think this is true nor is it the intent of the coaching staff. However this isn’t the only max protect-simplistic route play in this game. It’s just a disturbing blow-back of creating a simple offense predicated more on elite athleticism and less on spreading the field to manipulate an offense.

It may appear degrading to a player like Robert Griffin, a prospect known for his intellect, but name a young, technically proficient, healthy receiver in Washington’s lineup and you’ll come up empty. Garcon is the closest thing to player to fit this description, but his wheels aren’t back, either. If anything, Griffin’s injury is revealing just how valuable one player’s game-changing ability can be.

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Last year Griffin’s wheels were an element that forced defenses to overreact to even the simplest measures for fear of getting burned, which allowed a two-receiver passing game to work. This year, the wheels lack tread to corner to the open field that’s available above. The Broncos edge defenders and linebackers are confident that if it maintains its position, Griffin is no longer fast enough to win big as a ball carrier. Let him try to squeeze a deep ball into double coverage.

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As you can see, both receivers have two defenders on them as Griffin targets the deepest zone.

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At least Griffin errs long so there’s no danger of a turnover.

Another unintended consequence of Washington not changing its system and waiting for Griffin to recover his big-play ability is that the quarterback’s legs can’t hide as many of the offensive line’s weaknesses in pass protection.

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This is another 30 personnel pistol set with two receivers split at slot width on either side of the formation. Denver has seen this look enough times in the game that by the fourth quarter, they’re using one deep safety and placing 10 defenders within the short and intermediate zones to handle it.

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Griffin executes play action with the back as hit two receivers work down field against a secondary dropping into coverage. The linebackers stay in position to address any routes in shallow zone, but read to green dog if this once again is a max protect scheme. The only wrinkle to his play is Joshua Morgan, No.15, reversing field and working to the right flat as a dump-off. However, this is a slow-developing route and it requires the Washington offensive line to provide Griffin the time to check down.

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Griffin finishes his drop, looking down field where the intermediate and deep zone contains two receivers matched against four defenders. Meanwhile, H-Back Logan Paulsen is assigned to an edge defender.  With a healthy Griffin, it’s a risky but understandable to commit Paulsen to the edge with a running back to chip, but with this version of Griffin who cannot make the pass rush pay with his legs? Uh-uh.

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Fortunately Griffin still has enough athleticism to avert disaster, using a straight-arm to slide past the edge rush. Even so, we know he’s not going to run. Denver knows this too. They have three defenders at the second level waiting for Griffin to break the pocket.

What else do they have to do? There are only two receivers on this play! If they green dog, there’s a chance they open a lane to allow Griffin behind them. It’s safer to stand there with their thumbs up their hind parts, keep the quarterback in front of them, and wait for him to indicate pass and send the closes linebacker towards the pocket after that.

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Griffin resets his feet and this is the cue for one of the linebackers to green dog. Niles Paul is open in the right flat and he will have a one-on-one match up with a linebacker by the time he makes the catch. However, he needs Griffin to look Paul’s way to make the check-down. Instead, Griffin is pressing – bombs away.

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In this case the receiver gets behind the secondary.

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Griffin overshot the ball once again. Disrupt a quarterback from his spot in the pocket and he loses accuracy.

Make The Offense Squirm

Earlier in the game, Denver sent pressure at this max protect scheme – a double-corner blitz – and the Broncos linebackers were disciplined and waited for Griffin to attempt to break the pocket. I think teams see that containing Griffin in the pocket, eliminate easy runs for even a now-moderately athletic runner, and force him to pick a secondary apart with his arm and limited choices is the way to go.

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This discipline is even more evident with blitz variation where both corners pressure the pocket, but the corner on the side where the quarterback keeper would go temporarily pauses his blitz until the quarterback finishes the read option phase of the exchange.

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Once again, only two Washington receivers release on pass routes. Meanwhile, the defensive tackle also drops. However the depth of this drop indicates to me it’s intent is to keep the pocket intact and force Griffin to throw the ball than to cover a receiver.

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The corner off the left side pauses his rush long enough to ensure that Griffin is dropping to pass and not opting to run. His teammates in the middle have nothing to do but play security guard patrol for a quarterback breaking the pocket as a runner.

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Now that Griffin shows he’s truly dropping to pass, the cornerback resumes his blitz. Griffin is poised to do the right thing conceptually, which is to throw into the blitz and his receiver is open.

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Griffin releases the ball with room to spare, but his pass is high.

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The receiver – I believe it’s Garcon – attempts a one-handed grab . . .

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And makes the play. After this completion, Denver opted not to blitz, force the receivers to face double coverage, watch Griffin and the offensive line squirm. Even when Washington sent more than two receivers down field, Denver decided they’d make Griffin and his receivers prove they could win by throwing the football on a set play.

Griffintoomuch1

No max-protection on this play, but it’s still a conservative passing attack with the field compressed more than what we often seen with NFL offenses.

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As Griffin executes the read option fake, the Broncos linebackers remain patient, as does the defensive end on that read side. Also note the Broncos safety No.45. He’s spying Griffin the entire play.

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As Griffin drops, the edge rusher works around the tight end, a mismatch for the defense that last year’s version of Griffin arguably uses his legs to make the Broncos pay. However, there’s still the safety spy – an added layer of protection for the defense that perhaps a healthy Griffin would not avoid.

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Griffin climbs the pocket, doesn’t see an open receiver among the three running routes against six defenders in coverage – yep, still a 2-to-1 defensive advantage in DBs to WRs – and then is forced to slide to his left. Meanwhile, look No.99 near the left hash where Griffin is about to slide. Do you notice who is assigned to block this defensive linemen?

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That’s Alfred Morris. A tight end on a player like Shaun Phillips or Von Miller? A running back on a defensive tackle? Two offensive linemen on the right side blocking air and grass? Not a good look on this play.

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Griffin may not have the same explosiveness, but he’s still quick enough to slide from the edge rusher and then dip outside the defensive end. Not fast enough to slalom these big defenders without getting touched, but that’s part of the recovery process, if not the great athleticism of defensive linemen in today’s NFL.

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Griffin just escapes a sack as he’s flushed to his left and this is where the spy comes into play.

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This is where the play could still go alright if Griffin opts to run and make the most of this one-on-one match up with the safety. However, what he does next is a cardinal sin of quarterbacking and potentially an indication that his walk doesn’t match his talk about his confidence level in his knee.

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Griffin pulls up and attempts a throw across the field with a defender bearing down. Yes, this sometimes works but when it does there’s a level of anticipation to place the ball at a spot where the receiver is the only one with a chance to work towards the ball. In this case, Griffin delivers the ball to the receiver in a static spot that forces that receiver to wait on the ball – a dangerous play because now the receiver must stand still and time a leap while the defender as the advantage of attacking the pass.

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Also note the spin of the ball. There were a few throws where the ball came out funky because Griffin pressed too much to make a big play due to a scheme that emphasizes the speed that hasn’t returned to him yet and sends minimal receivers into maximum coverage.

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The safety jumps the target, tips the ball, and ends the play. Washington is fortunate this play didn’t result in a turnover.

What’s happening with Washington’s offense is to be expected when its scheme’s lynchpin is a rare athlete and that athlete has lost that edge. Based on past history, it should return, but I’m not counting on it this year.  This raises a broader set of questions: What will Washington do in the offseason?

Will they begin transitioning Griffin’s development to that of a pocket passer? Griffin was my No.2 quarterback in draft class that at the top was among the 3-4 best crops of rookie passers since 1983. Griffin’s intelligence, toughness, fundamental feel for the pocket, and deep accuracy (when not forced to throw into double coverage) are all reasons why I’ve always thought he could develop into a pocket passer with the mobility/accuracy that approached that of Steve Young and Aaron Rodgers. However, Washington has to upgrade its receiving corps and offensive line.

Will Washington keep its current system and wait for Griffin to regain his elite athleticism? If Washington remains patient and Griffin does return to form, they’ll have the luxury of adding talent but not forced to overhaul its offensive system and continue to rely on Griffin’s legs to put defenses on edge. But what if the Broncos’ method of defending Griffin works even when the quarterback’s explosiveness returns? Will Griffin and the coaching staff make the steps necessary to develop more advanced methods of execution for the passing game?  They have the collective smarts and potential, but they need the talent.

I have a lot more to write about this game in Part II of this post, including the punishment Griffin is taking – something he’s always done as a player. But I’ll end this post with this final question: Knowing what we do about Griffin’s toughness and desire to play and the Washington organization making a questionable call about his leg in the playoffs last year, would it have been wiser to shut Griffin for the first 10-12 games of this season?

I don’t have an answer.

See Part II – Watching Grass Grow and Reasons For Hope

For more analysis of skill players like this post, download the 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio available April 1. Prepayment is available now. Better yet, if you’re a fantasy owner the 56-page Post-Draft Add-on comes with the 2013 RSP at no additional charge. Best, yet, 10 percent of every sale is donated to Darkness to Light to combat sexual abuse. You can purchase past editions of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio for just $9.95 apiece.

Reads Listens Views 12/21/2012

One of the books I'm reading. I just finished "The Reader," and "Eye-Tracking the News." About to start "Don't Make Me Think."
One of the books I’m reading. I just finished “The Reader,” and “Eye-Tracking the News.” About to start “Don’t Make Me Think.”

My weekly list of links, tunes, and reads (football and otherwise), in addition to a thank you for supporting this blog and the annual Rookie Scouting Portfolio Publication. This includes a new ‘No-Huddle Series’ piece, Some serious saxophone playing, a good mock draft from Russ Lande, a piece from Sports on Earth, and Omer Avital. Check it.

Listens – Best Stop-Time Solo Ever

[youtube=http://youtu.be/S88-MqAVk3w]

Sonny Rollins, Kennedy Honors Recipient

Thank You

Things at the RSP are about to ramp up. I am already ahead of schedule with my game study and I hope that my holiday break will get me in position to have attained 75-80 percent of my player goal for the 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio. This means I’ll continue to provide in-depth, play-by-play analysis and essays about prospects on the blog – including Senior Bowl coverage both here and at the New York Times Fifth Down. 

If you haven’t read the 2012 RSP, you ought to check it out. The pre-draft and post-draft publications are a package set and the feedback this year was tremendous. I will be doing the same with the 2013 publication, making the pre-draft available for download (as always) on April 1 and the post-draft publication available one week after the NFL Draft. The option to prepay – as you’ve requested – will be available the same time as last year – more on that in January.

This promotion of my work ahead comes with a thank you to those of you who read and support the blog as well as my publication. I have fantastic readers. I wish I could spend more time corresponding with those of you who take the time to send me quality stuff on a regular basis. It is something I value even if I can’t always respond in kind with equal time and effort.

Football Reads

Non-Football Reads

Views

Lyle Lovett Tiny Desk Concert

Omer Avital In Concert

Speculating in a Minefield: Race and Quarterbacking

Newton has the ideal personnel for play action passing, but as Lance Zierlein said weeks ago when we talked "On the Couch" with Sigmund Bloom, the zone read offense hinders use of it. it's one of the reasons I wonder if this approach might be hurting the long-term development of quarterbacks. Photo by PDA.Photo
Newton has the ideal personnel for play action passing, but as Lance Zierlein said weeks ago when we talked “On the Couch” with Sigmund Bloom, the zone read offense hinders use of it. it’s one of the reasons I wonder if this approach might be hurting the long-term development of quarterbacks. Photo by PDA.Photo

Recently, ESPN’s Matt Williamson and I were on Sigmund Bloom’s “On the Couch” podcast and Bloom broached the topic of Cam Newton. Williamson went first and talked about why he believes in Cam Newton’s talent. One of the things Williamson mentioned was that if Newton, and eventually Robert Griffin, are to develop into winning NFL quarterback they will need to transition into pure pocket passers that can sometimes run.

I couldn’t agree more. Until this conversation that ensued On the Couch I’ve been having an internal debate about publishing this post. Then when David Whitley wrote his column about Colin Kaepernick, the quarterback’s tattoos and the nature of some of the criticism from readers, I decided it would be a good idea to post this piece. 

Context

The white hoods and the Jim Crow era signs may be a relic in our country, but racism still exists. To be clear, I’m not talking about hate-speech, cross burning, and criminal violence.  It’s true that this in-your-face, brand of intolerance and rage still exists in the dark corners of every community of our country. That’s not what this is about.

Racism is not always about hate. But it is always rooted in ignorance – even when the intentions are noble. Without a well-spring of knowledge to nourish those good intentions, ignorance can take root.

A writer whom I admire recently finished a story that featured a mentoring experience between an executive and a young man. The businessman went above and beyond to assist this young man. He saw shades of his youth in his men-tee. The executive is white. The young man is black.

When the writer finished his draft of the story, he described the young man as a “smart, motivated, and hopeful young black man.”

I know this writer’s work and I’ve met him numerous times and there’s no question in my mind that his description of the young man was well-intentioned. It’s also a case where I believe this writer’s age and experiences influenced his decision to include the young man’s race in the sentence. I know that he wanted to underscore the point to his audience that this young black man is an example of many other black men in the world with the same positive characteristics.

This isn’t cross-burning, white-hooded, racism, but it is a subtler strain steeped in well-intentioned ignorance. Injecting race into a story when the context doesn’t call for it has an unintentional consequence. Describing a subject of a story as a “smart, motivated, and hopeful black man,” infers that there’s something about this combination of characteristics in a human being that is unusual rather than the norm.

If the subject of this story was the evolution of human rights in our country then it might make sense to point out an individual’s race in the context of the story. However, using it when the story has nothing to do with race infers that people of color don’t normally have the same capacity of intelligence, work ethic, and optimism as white people. I’ve been guilty of doing this in conversation before. I would have have been angered if someone accused me of racism for doing so.

That’s part of the delicate nature of the topic of race in our country. The word “racism” is loaded with a history of violent imagery. When a well-intentioned human being in our country is told he or she is ignorant about a matter of race, it’s a common reaction to react as if they were accused of being complicit in crimes against humanity. It’s what makes the topic of race in this country a confusing and emotionally-charged minefield.

It should be.

Slavery was physical, emotional, and spiritual abuse of the worst kind. What people don’t think about is that the actions damaged both the abuser and the abused. And like any radioactive material, the fallout takes much longer to leave our nation’s psyche than the system that was dismantled decades ago.

However, the next time you hear someone comment, ‘slavery is over,’ it would be wise to consider that the fiscal and personal toll from the system’s infrastructure is still rippling through our nation on several levels even if the actual enslavement is gone. It doesn’t mean that you should feel guilty for something that you didn’t do. However, it will help our country come together on this issue if we all learn how to avoid perpetuating ideas – subtle or otherwise – that haven’t changed enough.

There are still bastions of football writing that continue to perpetuate these well-intentioned, but ignorant ideas.

The truth is that there are individuals of every race and gender that have special physical, mental, and emotional characteristics in abundance. Genetics may play a role in exceptional achievements – both positive and negative – but that’s also not exclusive of race. The way that our society reacts to skin color often has external influences on individuals and how they use these qualities.

This well-intentioned mindset can have the unintended consequence of harming those they wish to help. It sends the message that, even when the starting points and resources are relatively equal, that people of color need the help of white people to achieve the same things. This mindset can be just as limiting long-term as the more virulent strains of examples of racism because it subtly ingrains stereotypes.

It still happens in football writing.

I don’t see David Whitley’s piece about Colin Kaepernick as racist. The Sporting News writer’s column is about image and leadership, specifically tattoos and what they state about the image and perception of leadership. As I mentioned yesterday, I disagree with Whitley’s perspective. Quarterbacks should not be regarded as CEOs. It’s an inaccurate analogy. Quarterbacks don’t hire and fire. They don’t make financial decisions for the team. They aren’t the first, second, or even third voice that is important for an NFL organization. If Whitley was going to make a more accurate, but still misguided, business analogy he should have considered the position of quarterback as a middle manager.

In my view, all quarterbacks are military leaders-tribal warriors more than they are businessmen. See below. Photo of Colin Kaepernick by Jason Ku Photography.
CEO or tribal-military warrior? Photo of Colin Kaepernick by Jason Ku Photography.

Taking a quick tangent, the reason I think Whitley is off base with his quarterback-as-CEO argument is that a football field is not a corporate office or boardroom; it’s more like a battleground. Football teams are more like tribes or military units. Because of the physical commitment involved with playing the game that can lead to permanent, long-term disability, or even loss of life, quarterbacks are more like warrior-leaders.

I don’t know about you, but I want a man willing to permanently mark his skin with ink to swear allegiance to his beliefs. That’s the kind of person who is willing to sacrifice his body for what he believes in. There’s no lasting sacrifice demonstrated with a haircut and an Armani suit.

But back to Whitley’s mistake that invited speculation of racism. I believe it occurred when he wrote: It’s not just a white thing, I hope.

He didn’t need to inject race into the equation. It was his decision, and that of his editor to leave it there, which made race an issue in a piece that’s only true position is to rail against tattoos for quarterbacks.

Whitley’s context of race was well-meaning, but inappropriate. When looking at the context of how the NFL openly questioned the intellectual capabilities of black athletes, it made sense to discuss Doug Williams’ blackness when he helped the Redskins win the Super Bowl. It was a historical moment.

Yet, to say that Robert Griffin is an intelligent, articulate, hard-working, black man in a story about him is unnecessary if the context isn’t about the role of race and athletics in American society. Ask yourself this question: when would it be necessary to describe Andrew Luck as a passionate, athletic, and tough as nails, white man in a sports story? Moreover, is Andrew Luck ever described as a “white man” in the average sports story?

The use of “black” as a descriptor is something I hear friends and colleagues use in situations that aren’t necessary. If I were at a future Redskins-Colts football game with my daughter and Luck and Griffin were both in grey sweats having a conversation at the 50 yard-line, I’ll point and say, “The black dude,” if she asks me,  “Which quarterback is Griffin?” If I’m describing the skill of a player, or the personality of an individual’s “blackness” or “whiteness,” then color rarely needs to be a part of the equation.

If it does, ask yourself why its so important that you include race in the context of what you’re telling. Does it need to be for you, or your audience?

The unintentional dark comedy of this entire uproar from writers and bloggers who I’ve seen brand this piece as racist is that the most vocal ones I saw online where white men. It’s usually white men who are quick to correct my wife that she is not black, but ‘African-American.’ Well-intended, but incredibly ignorant.  Most black people in this country have an ancestry of people that hailed from a variety of nations and races. While some people will say that the term was coined by black people (I’ve seen some cite Jesse Jackson) it was white people in America who began using this term as early as the 1850s.

It never occurred to these white male writers that the writer is the father to two black girls, or that the editor is black. It’s not to say that black people are incapable of being racist (If you were one of those white people railing against Whitley don’t be offended that I’m poking fun at you – some of you meant well), but it is sad and funny to me that two writers who should understand the nuance of the issue of race in this country failed to successfully navigate the racial minefield. Of course some may even say they willfully tripped the wires to get attention.

This public service announcement about the state of race in the United States is a necessary prelude to the range of thoughts I am sharing below about Cam Newton, Robert Griffin, and any other quarterback with the incredible physical gifts to thread the needle with his arms and gain huge chunks of yards with his legs. I want my future analysis to be an honest examination of the idea that certain black quarterbacks could see their long-term development stunted because of coaches willing to take a slower transition with a college-based offense or an offense where running is highly encouraged.

Kordell Stewart, Michael Vick, Vince Young, Cam Newton, and Robert Griffin may have looked like superstars in these offenses early in their careers, but in the case of Stewart, Vick, and Young, they didn’t make the transition into pocket passers the way that Donovan McNabb and Steve McNair did and they may ultimately struggled. I fear Newton and Griffin could find themselves along the same road where the team had great intentions, but they didn’t force their quarterbacks to take the harder, but more fulfilling development path.

However, I see evidence where ignorance may take root in terms of the responses I’ll receive. It’s why I think it is important to map the minefield before I take you through it. I want to say upfront that I have no definitive answers. I don’t know if I’m right. My concerns might be unwarranted, but I do see a link between these progressive ideas in football and how they could mimic the progressive or liberal ideas that some in our country have with race. Both have good intentions, but sometimes do more harm than good.  I want to be able to say them while providing enough context that hopefully most people will understand that this is a delicate and nuanced issue and I’m sharing my thoughts, but not making hard conclusions.

Navigating the Minefield

What I fear is that the Redskins and Panthers’ offenses systems, which have been retrofitted to ease the short-term transition of Robert Griffin and Cam Newton, may actually do a disservice to the long-term development of these fantastic quarterback talents. I believe the validity of my concerns will ultimately hinge on how effective these spread offensive concepts taken from the college game will chip away at the validity of the old truism “a successful NFL quarterback must win from the pocket.”

Why race becomes part of the issue is tricky.

The Panthers and Redskins seem more willing to use college option concepts with Newton and Griffin than the 49ers and Broncos were with Alex Smith and Tim Tebow. Both Smith and Tebow were spread option stars at the college level. The 49ers set about grooming Smith to become a pocket passer. Tebow was merely an option of desperation that John Elway tossed aside as soon as the Broncos season ended. If he couldn’t land Peyton Manning, the consummate pocket quarterback, I have no doubts that Elway would have moved heaven and earth to acquire one in the draft with more refined skill than rookie Brock Osweiler.

Alex Smith was a successful college runner-passer in a spread system. Why did the 49ers opt to force him into developing pocket passer? I have no clear answer, but it is food for thought. Photo by  Jason Ku Photography.
Alex Smith was a successful college runner-passer in a spread system. Why did the 49ers opt to force him into developing pocket passer? I hope I’m wrong, but it is food for thought that race was a subconscious factor into the decision-making equation with Newton and Griffin. Photo by Jason Ku Photography.

Tebow’s lack of developed arm talent is an easy reason to explain why no team is willing to invest in him as a starter in an option-based system like Newton and Griffin. Smith is a different story. Gil Brandt reported from Smith’s pre-draft workout that he hadn’t seen as impressive of a performance since Troy Aikman. Remember that Smith was also a dangerous runner at Utah.

It doesn’t take a scout to see the difference between Smith’s size and speed in comparison to Newton and Griffin. However, the 49ers have picked its spots to use Smith’s prowess as a runner. At 6’4″ and an athletic, 217 pounds, Smith was as successful running a spread option as a ball carrier as Newton and Griffin. I doubt he has the athleticism to gain the yardage in chunks that Newton and Griffin have, but I don’t think the overall effectiveness within the scope of a pro offense fitted for Smith to run would have yielded dramatically different results. Here is each player’s rushing stats during their final college season.

Player Att Yds TD
Smith 135 631 10
Griffin 161 699 10
Newton 264 1473 20

From the standpoint of yards per carry and touchdowns per attempt, there’s not a significant difference. This could just have to do with individual preference and willingness of coaches, but I do wonder that, when it comes to teams opting to employ an offense with the quarterback as part-runner and part-passer, if race was a subconscious factor to take that risk.

My fear is that teams are opting to exploit Griffin’s and Newton’s athletic talents now at the cost of their vast potential to develop into true pocket passers later. It’s not an intentional exploitation based on race, but if a player like Newton begins to falter, then the commentary then leads to similar type of grilling that Vince Young or Kordell Stewart earned. The fact that some fans drew parallels between Newton and Vince Young was unfair to Newton and I think some of it had to do with race.

The motivation of these teams  is to maximize Newton and Griffin’s talents to win now. That is admirable and in some ways progressive thinking. But unless the teams find the right combination of quarterback and offense, these players’ lack of pocket development and reading the entire field could set them back in terms of traditional skills.

This view could find its way to the historic dustbin faster than Griffin can cover 30 yards in the open field. The reason is that they may change NFL quarterbacking with their athleticism. But until they do so over a period of years, I won’t believe it.

It has been a truism for decades that in the NFL the quarterback must be able to win from the pocket. Steve Young, Randall Cunningham, Donovan McNabb, Steve McNair, and to some extent Ben Roethlisberger, all had to learn to play better from the pocket to elevate their game.

Now coaches are injecting spread principles into the NFL game, including the zone-read options. This may accelerate statistical production and big-play development, but we haven’t seen lasting proof that the offenses are leading to victories or long-term development of the quarterbacks at the wheel. I want to see Robert Griffin and Cam Newton win and win big. I want them to develop into great quarterbacks.

Perhaps they will never need to lean solely on these pocket skills and they will indeed change the NFL game. If so, that’s terrific. However, I’m skeptical because I believe the hits will take a toll with age. If they are part running back, think about the life expectancy of a runner’s career versus a quarterback’s and you have to begin subtracting years.

Of course there’s no guarantee either Newton or Griffin will develop into a great pocket passer any more than Alex Smith, Sam Bradford, or anything other big-time white quarterback entering the league. Call me old-school, but I’d like to see these teams try. Let Newton and Griffin take their lumps from defenses, coaches, fans, and media as they work on the tried-and-true skills of quarterbacking. I think it’s better to do so earlier where hitting a wall is expected than to give them early success and become the equivalent of many child stars in Hollywood.

If they can do so in this style of offense long-term then great, but I don’t see it working in Carolina. This could have more to do with Carolina specifically, but I want to entertain the idea that it may not. I think how Griffin, Newton, Kapernick, and their teams fare could make my point worth examining.

Right now it’s just speculation in a minefield.

Creating Bad Luck

Even the best prospects make mistakes. Sometimes it's the type of mistakes they make that elevate them from the pack. Photo by Michael Li.

Note: The posts of 2012 Draft Prospects this month are brief examples of plays that highlight specific skills and/or deficiencies of a player. They are not meant to draw overall conclusions of that player’s pro potential. For a thorough analysis of these prospects – and over 150 others – purchase the 2012 Rookie Scouting Portfolio, available through a link at this site on April, 1.

Yesterday, I featured a play where Robert Griffin III reacts poorly to pressure. Today, Andrew Luck gets the same treatment. However, I believe there’s a difference between the types of mistakes that I showed with Griffin and the two I’ll show today with Luck. Griffin’s opponent tipped its hand before the snap and the Baylor quarterback missed a relatively easy read. In contrast, Luck’s opponent uses a more complex scheme and hides it before the snap like a stone-faced killer. Luck still makes mistakes, but the errors are against a more advanced concept with stronger execution. Continue reading

Reads Listens Views 2/17/2012

Here’s What A Once In A Lifetime Player Looks Like

[youtube=http://youtu.be/H0GCixb2QjI]

Lather, rinse, repeat . . .

Thank You And More Comin’

NFL Draft Season is clearly underway and there’s a lot of great information available online. For those of you just getting acquainted with the Rookie Scouting Portfolio, thank you for visiting – and thank you for the massive (at least for me) immediate following on my RSP Facebook page. Check it out and like it if you haven’t (I gave away 8 free copies of past RSPs there yesterday). If you’re a long-time listener be a first-time caller and leave me a post about the RSP on the wall.

Best of all, Continue reading