Posts tagged Rookie Scouting Portfolio

Futures at Football Outsiders: Texas A&M QB Johnny Manziel

0 Comments read 2014 NFL Draft, Players, Quarterback
Manziel epitomizes the strengths and weaknesses of a creative manager. See below. Photo by Matt Velazquez.
Manziel epitomizes the strengths and weaknesses of a creative manager. See below. Photo by Matt Velazquez.

Futures: Texas A&M QB Johnny Manziel

by Matt Waldman

Management Style and Quarterbacking

In last week’s Futures on Georgia quarterback Aaron Murray, I described quarterbacking styles within the context of task-oriented management and creative management. Be it a white-collar, blue-collar, or athletic career, these are two basic ends of the spectrum when talking about management styles.

Task-oriented managers love the routine and rhythm of a predictable, reliable process. As they acquire more experience, a high-functioning, task-oriented manager knows the boundaries of his processes so well that he’ll often appear far more spontaneous to a wide range of problems than he is.

Matt Ryan and Tom Brady are perfect examples of high-functioning, task-oriented quarterbacks. They know every detail of what’s supposed to be happening in their environment and control it so well that they can anticipate most things that defenses will attempt to wreck an offense’s performance. When their teammates are playing efficiently, they appear far more creative than they are because their level of preparation helps them develop processes to avoid the same major issues that confound less experienced passers.

I mentioned Peyton Manning and Drew Brees as task-oriented quarterbacks last week, but I’m having second thoughts. It’s not an exaggeration that Manning is a coach on the field. I’ve talked to a former Colts player who has played with three other teams and he affirms that Manning is unique in this regard. His intelligence and preparation might exceed every other quarterback who has ever played the game.

This gives Manning a much wider box of operation than any quarterback in the game, regardless of style. His creativity comes in the strategic aspects of the game, but it’s rooted in having a fantastic memory and method of preparation. Last year ESPN ran a story about Manning contacting a former staffer with Tennessee to help him find tape of a play that he remembered was successful. Manning implemented it successfully as a red-zone call during the season.

If I had to make a final call, I’d stick with the task-oriented label for Manning. I’m not as certain about Brees.

I wonder if Brees is that rare individual who balances both worlds of task-oriented preparation and creative and intuitive problem solving when it’s time to perform. While the Saints quarterback is obsessive to the point that the smallest details of his workout routines don’t change –- to the point that teammates have to cut short what they’re doing to accommodate their quarterback — I’ve also seen Brees create when form and function go out the window and he does it as well as many of the quarterbacks on the far end of the creative spectrum.

I believe Russell Wilson is also one of those players. His task-oriented skills are strong. When he arrived in Madison, Wisconsin he learned the Badgers system -– a more task-oriented, rhythm based, West Coast offense –- in record time. His preparation was so strong that he not only earned the starting job without contest, he was also voted team captain.

But it was his play in North Carolina State’s offense for three years that impressed me the more than he did at Wisconsin. Wilson had to merge his understanding and execution of the offensive system’s process with his athleticism and creativity. He made off-balanced throws with anticipation and accuracy against blitzes that generally fluster most task-oriented passers. He could buy time, keep his head about him, and create productive results when the plays broke down beyond all sense of recognition.

Read the rest at Football Outsiders

Reads Listens Views 9/27/2013

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Listens I – Moto Perpetuo as performed by Sergei Nakariakov

[youtube=http://youtu.be/QXnkAnmAOEc]

This little ditty was composed for violin, but Nakariakov performs this endless tire drill with articulation (think footwork for running backs) that would put Barry Sanders to shame. By the way I listened to Wynton Marsalis perform this, but he slurred everything. Nothing wrong with it. In fact, it has a more lyrical quality. But technically Narkariakov’s performance is more impressive.

Thank You

If you’re new to my blog. This is my Friday Free-For-All of football and non-football content that I found interesting this week. You may not like everything, but you’re bound to enjoy something in this post. I have greater readers. It’s a small, but awesome community and I appreciate all the support over the past 10 years I’ve been writing about football in some capacity.

Commentary: Terrelle Pryor – I’m a fan

I'm impressed with Pryor. You should be, too.
I’m impressed with Pryor. You should be, too.

When the Raiders picked the Ohio State star in the NFL Supplemental Draft, I thought this was a case of Al Davis having a case of beer goggles. If you haven’t read my pre-draft assessment of Pryor, you should. While my overall takeaway was that Pryor had a lot of hard work to do, I said he had the talent to be a dominant quarterback if he could work hard and learn fast.

Pyror isn’t dominant right now, but I’m so impressed with what he’s done to correct his release, change his footwork, and adjust his style of maneuvering the pocket. He’s the rare example of a quarterback who has overhauled his playing style with enough success that his third-round selection may prove to be a steal in hindsight.

Seriously folks, look at Tim Tebow. Pryor had similar issues as a passer and even better athleticism and arm strength, which could easily give him a sense that he didn’t need to work as hard has he did to correct his technical flaws. You could even argue that compared the Broncos organization, the Raiders have been a dumpster fire.

It should tell you that when it comes to a player’s development, it’s ultimately how hard the player is willing to work and find the right resources to help him along. Pryor’s development tells us just as much about his mental-emotional makeup as his physical talents. As my buddy Bloom likes to ask, “If the draft were held today, would Pryor’s status be different?” And the answer is “no question.”

Pryor would be a top-10 pick. In fact, I would have rate Pryor alongside Cam Newton based on what we know today. The rate he’s developing game to game is startling. Most increments of growth are too slow to see weekly without deep examination of the player and system. This is like watching grass actually grow with time-elapsed photography.

Reads (Football)

  • Planes, Turnovers, and Adrian Peterson – Doug Drinen explains coaches should see fumbling to a certain extent as “you can’t win if you don’t try.” Some one find a telegraph and get Coughlin the message.
  • Game Scripts – Chase Stuart’s work at Football Perspective
  • Futures: Aaron Murray – I finished a piece about Johnny Manziel for Saturday. This is a good one to read first.

Fiction Recommendation

Print

I work at a magazine during the day where I write (really write – not this stuff that barely passes as such) features as an in-house staff writer and editor. One of our hired guns is an Atlanta-based writer by the name of Charles McNair. In addition to writing about business, he’s the books editor at Paste Magazine and he’s a novelist.  Land O’Goshen, his first novel, was nominated for a Pulitzer. Yesterday, McNair kicked off the tour for his second novel, Pickett’s Charge, which is about an old man who busts loose from an Alabama prison – I mean nursing home – to avenge his brother’s death about 65-70 years earlier in the Civil War. Yep, the protagonist is 114 years old and he travel across the 1960s south.

As McNair – or Zach Law’s wife Amy, who does the PR work for the author – says, “Imagine Kurt Vonnegut and Ken Kesey joining forces with Shelby Foote and Margaret Mitchell to tell the last story of the American Civil War. Welcome to Pickett’s Charge.” Go here to learn more, read the first chapter, and buy the book. McNair is a fine writer and I’m looking forward to reading his second book.

By the way, McNair also recommends Thomas Mullen, who I also can’t wait to read. You can check out Mullen’s work here – including a tail of bank robbers who come back to life each morning after they were shot up the night before.

Listens II – If you thought the Miami Hurricanes’ football team was good, the musicians that regular matriculate through its jazz program are just as talented

[youtube=http://youtu.be/C4fsXCyZIZI]

Views – Autumn is a great time of year (and I think these leaves are laced with something).

[youtube=http://youtu.be/7xEX-48RHCY]

Reads (Non-Football)

Listens III – Bernhoft “On Time”

[youtube=http://youtu.be/EJfnvna4kwI]

Listens IV – Maynard Ferguson and the University of Miami and North Texas State alumni band (might as well be).

[youtube=http://youtu.be/5zQBXI5igX0]

 

Futures: UGA QB Aaron Murray

0 Comments read 2014 NFL Draft, Players, Quarterback
Quarterbacks can be divided into task-oriented managers and creative managers. Find out which one fits best for Aaron Murray. Photo by Wade Rackley.
Quarterbacks can be divided into task-oriented managers and creative managers. Find out which one fits best for Aaron Murray. Photo by Wade Rackley.

Futures: UGA QB Aaron Murray

By Matt Waldman

The most glaring example of the difference between a good college player and a good NFL player is at the quarterback position. It’s also the position where draftniks and football evaluators have one of the loosest working definitions for the term “developmental prospect.” I’ve seen this term used to describe players judged as undrafted free agents who would be best served looking for work with the Canadian or Arena League just as often as I’ve seen it as a label for a second or third-round prospect.

But it was only a few years ago that the NFL draft had nearly twice the number of rounds, which explains why a third-round player and an undrafted free agent can have the same label. Considering that NFL scouting is still rooted in mid-20th century practices (I’m not talking about some teams’ uses of iPads and databases to track and store information, but the actual concepts and techniques they use to assess players), it shouldn’t be a surprise.

Georgia’s Aaron Murray is a quarterback I’ve seen projected by my colleagues at CBS as a third-round prospect and top-100 player, but whose game matches my working definition of a developmental player. The Bulldog’s four-year starter exhibits sound fundamentals, base accuracy in the passing game, and enough awareness to lead a winning football team in one of the best conferences in college football.

However, Murray also epitomizes the skills gap between big-time college passers and the pro quarterbacks fighting for remaining rosters spots in the NFL. This week’s Futures profiles Murray’s comfort zone and where his inner demons lurk. If the Georgia quarterback can expand his ability to translate what he’s learning in the classroom to what he does on the field, he could have a career as a capable backup. However, I think the third-round grade is an optimistic assessment.

A good way to explain this is a quick look at Murray’s former competitor for the starting job when they were freshmen: Zach Mettenberger, who played at a local high school no more than 20 minutes from the UGA campus. Mettenberger was the prototypical pocket passer in terms of size and arm strength and I thought he was the better prospect. After he was arrested on alcohol, disorderly conduct, and obstruction of justice charges during spring break of his freshman year, it didn’t matter – he was booted from the team and Murray earned the job.

I haven’t studied Mettenberger in depth since then, but I’m not the least bit shocked that Cam Cameron’s system is bringing out the best in the LSU quarterback and reviving his draft stock. Mettenberger has the physical skills and prototypical size most NFL teams covet and I wouldn’t be surprised if Mettenberger’s classification as a developmental player also earns the accompanying tag of “future starter”.

Murray’s developmental label might warrant starter consideration, but I think the fit is more team-specific for the 6-foot-1, 208-pound quarterback. Russell Wilson, Drew Brees, and Aaron Rodgers’ skills are proof that quarterbacks between 5-foot-10 and 6-foot-2 can succeed as NFL starters, but they are currently exceptions to the rule. I think Murray’s upside is more along the spectrum of Alex Smith and Jeff Garcia as the best-case scenarios with Bruce Gradkowski as a more realistic aspiration: quarterbacks who perform best in the classic version of the West Coast Offense predicated on short passing, rhythm, and movement.

Read the rest at Football Outsiders

Reads Listens Views 9/20/2013

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Koreans have "Han", Clevelanders have the Browns. Same thing. Photo by Erik Daniel Drost.
Koreans have “Han”, Clevelanders have the Browns. Same thing. Photo by Erik Daniel Drost.

Commentary: Trent Richardson Trade

Sigmund Bloom called me today on the heels of the Richardson-to-Colts deal. Two weeks prior, I was a guest On The Couch with Bloom explaining to him and Scott Pianowski that Richardson appeared tentative and wasn’t exploiting plays the way he should in the zone blocking scheme.

“It sounds like your observations were similar to what Joe Lombardi and company were seeing in Cleveland. You felt a tremor in the Force.”

Perhaps. But I still wouldn’t have dealt Richardson. He’s a top-10 pick. He’s capable of helping the Browns become a playoff team even if its attempt to land a franchise quarterback fails. I shared Chase Stuart’s piece on the numbers this summer. The point is about the insights you get from data and how you apply it. Trading away a franchise player seems like the wrong decision to me.

If I were a part of the Browns organization, I would have told Rob Chudzinski to change his offense’s blocking scheme. Use more gap-style plays. After Lamar Miller looked tentative against Cleveland in Week 1, they ran nothing but gap plays for Miller against the Colts and the second-year runner was far more productive and a good example of using data to your advantage.

Gap plays require less conceptual skill and highlight athleticism. Miller and Richardson are top-tier athletes. Just like Darren McFadden, they can run around you, bull through you, and hit a hole with ferocity. Limit the decision-making to one area and let them create in that smaller space and they will be more decisive runners. The Dolphins saw it work after making this switch within the span of a week.

The Browns decided the answer was to trade its top-10 overall pick from 2012.

Perhaps there’s more to the story with Richardson that has less to do with his on-field skill. We won’t know this right now. However, I’m with Grigson when it comes to his rationale for taking Richardson:

“I know the numbers,” Grigson said. “But the yardage is there. You see it when you’re watching the film. Obviously if you have a guy that’s your main threat in the offense, that’s who defenses are going to key up. Trent isn’t even near his ceiling. We’re talking about the third pick in the draft, and that’s not because he’s a ham-and-egger.”

The Colts have a gap-style ground game with traps and counter plays. This is a great match. And as Bloom shared with me over the phone, the Browns are paying a significant amount of money from Richardson’s signing bonus to ship him to another team in his prime with the hope of acquiring a (likely) mid-to-late pick from the Colts to stockpile and land a franchise quarterback.

A) I hope they can land that quarterback and B) They better be right.

The town already gave up two Super Bowl Championships because they tried to play hardball on a stadium. By the way, how many teams have built new stadiums since this ordeal that cost the Browns the Ravens? I get that the arguments for new stadiums are stupid and that the taxpayer often foots more of the bill than what they really get back for these owner-vanity projects. Cleveland was the city that was made the example or other cities to heed.

But as a former Clevelander, I can tell you that we have something in common with Korean culture. We have the Browns, they have Han (from Wikipedia):

Han is a concept in Korean culture attributed as a national cultural trait. Han denotes a collective feeling of oppression and isolation in the face of overwhelming odds. It connotes aspects of lament and unavenged injustice.

The minjung theologian Suh Nam-dong describes han as a “feeling of unresolved resentment against injustices suffered, a sense of helplessness because of the overwhelming odds against one, a feeling of acute pain in one’s guts and bowels, making the whole body writhe and squirm, and an obstinate urge to take revenge and to right the wrong—all these combined.”[1]

In some occasions, anthropologists have recognized han as a culture-specific medical condition whose symptoms include dyspnea, heart palpitation, and dizziness. Someone who dies of han is said to have died of hwabyeong.[2]

Although I am no longer a diehard Browns fan, I still have Clevelander Han and it won’t go away. It followed me to Tennessee (one-yard short). It might be following me to Seattle (Falcons playoff game).

I think the organization just made an egregious error in judgment, but for the sake of Browns’ fans they better know what they’re doing come April.

Listens – An Entire Concert For Those of You (NFL Owners Or Folks Who Dropped Out of The Rat Race) With Time on Their Hands

[youtube=http://youtu.be/j8xPaAnx5OM]

Football Reads

Views

[youtube=http://youtu.be/7jdyP1R0es8]

Non-Football Reads

Listens

[youtube=http://youtu.be/LknbuE2dHGI]

Thank You

Sometimes it’s best to be brief.

The One Trade Advice Article You Need to Read

0 Comments read Matt Waldman
There are a fair share of Jimmy Graham-sized targets in this draft, but as I finish up my rankings, only a few have a ceiling that is even in the neighborhood of the Saint. Photo by Football Schedule.
The art of the deal is a huge part of fantasy football that is not explored in depth by writers. I’m tackling in this week’s Gut Check at Footballguys. Here’s a taste. Photo by Football Schedule.

I have written close to 500 articles about fantasy football. This is the one I’m most confident will make you a better fantasy owner. It might be the best thing I’ve learned as a fantasy owner in years. Ironically, the person who provided me the majority of this knowledge has no experience playing fantasy football. 

In nearly 20 years of writing about this hobby, I’ve never read a good article that discusses how to become better at making trades. I’m sure there are some, but not in the circles I’ve traveled as a fantasy writer (and it’s a pretty broad circle). I broached the topic with Sigmund Bloom this afternoon when he called me to share his rant against trading Michael Vick.

Bloom agreed he hasn’t seen any quality articles about the strategies behind making deals. He proposed we collaborate one night on the subject. A trained lawyer, Bloom has some good negotiation skills. I also have some chops of my own as a former salesman (when I actually try). However, the best negotiator I know is my wife, Alicia.

Those of you who read me regularly know by now that when I invoke my wife’s name in writing 99 percent of the time it is for comic relief. Today is that one percent exception. Alicia is a corporate buyer. With millions of dollars of spend under her responsibility, she negotiates for a living with Fortune 100 companies. Her negotiation style is also regarded as rare in the field because she’s adept at several styles rather than relying on just one.

Some of my best friends have benefited from her negotiation advice in recent years. It inspired me to attempt to write this article this summer, but I just didn’t have enough perspective to translate her knowledge to fantasy football. I wasn’t asking her the right questions. The combination of Bloom’s initial topic, my wife’s knowledge, and some information I acquired just a few days ago while covering a non-football story at my day job helped me figure out the right questions to ask.

I haven’t been a good trade negotiator in fantasy football. Some who got the worse end of deals with me might disagree, but they’re looking at the art of the deal the wrong way.

I’m lucky when I get time to assess my collective free agent pools for 30 minutes a week. I’m in too many leagues and I’m likely to be giving notice in half of them this spring. I want to have time to analyze my league’s market and negotiate on behalf of my teams.

This year I’ve already accepted and turned down two deals I shouldn’t have in dynasty leagues. The reason is I never had a clear understanding of good negotiation tactics and what is required to cultivate them.

Until now.

Part I: Adopt A Negotiator’s Mindset

There are three fundamental things you have to internalize as a fantasy owner if you want to become good at the art of the deal:

1. You need to know the spectrum of players you want and the spectrum of players you’re willing to give away.

2. You need to have real commitment to your limits and be willing to lose.

3. You need to evaluate your skills at trade negotiation more by the process and less by the end result.   

If you don’t approach negotiations with these three steps, you are are doing no better than searching for the next bandage to cover the wound in need of surgery. The best way to begin is to take these three steps and work backwards.

Be Process Oriented More Than Results-Oriented And The Results Will Come

Becoming a good negotiator is a process. You have to be mindful of the steps and begin looking at the deal with perspective. Diplomats and business people call it vision; con artists call it the long con. It’s the same skill applied in different spheres. 

Good negotiators understand that they will win and lose deals, but one of the best characteristics of a winning negotiator is that the person is easy to work with. In fantasy football this means you have to engage people and keep them interested in working with you. It’s a quality you have to develop with every potential deal. Even if a trade doesn’t come to fruition or a deal backfires for you or your trade partner, the way you conducted the negotiations will make that person return to you for future deals. 

For the rest, subscribe to Footballguys.com

This is ultimately what you want.

Boiler Room: RB Todd Gurley

0 Comments read 2014 NFL Draft, Players, RSP Boiler Room Videos (Short Form), Running Back
I make player comparisons by style of players along a spectrum of talent. The mid-range of that talent spectrum for Georgia RB Todd Gurley would be Cedric Benson. Photo by Dusty Werner.
I make player comparisons by style of players along a spectrum of talent. The mid-range of that talent spectrum for Georgia RB Todd Gurley would be Cedric Benson. The upper range? Larry Johnson.  Photo by Dusty Werner.

Todd Gurley’s style reminds me of Penn State star Larry Johnson.  For those of you who remember Johnson for his exploits with the Chiefs than the headlines he made off the field, it’s weighty praise. What they have in common is the agility of a 210-pound runner in the powerful frame of  225-230 lb. back.

A series I started last spring at the RSP blog is The Boiler Room. One of the challenges involved with player analysis is to be succinct with delivering the goods. As the author of an annual tome, I’m often a spectacular failure in this respect.

Even so, I will study a prospect and see a play unfold that does a great job of encapsulating that player’s skills. When I witness these moments, I try to imagine if I would include this play as part of a cut-up of highlights for a draft show at a major network or if I was working for an NFL organization creating cut-ups for a personnel director. Unlike the No-Huddle Series, The Boiler Room is focused on prospects I expect to be drafted, and often before the fourth round.

It’s incredibly difficult to boil down any player with just one play. Yet, if I need a play to add to the highlight reel that will help a team make a decision where to slot Todd Gurley on its board, this is my nomination despite the fact there’s an impressive display of long speed on a 75-yard touchdown earlier in this Clemson game.

[youtube=http://youtu.be/wIOlc8M91os]

There are several things about this run that underscore Gurley’s physical talent and conceptual skill.

The first is ball security. Gurley is a primarily a power runner and to do work between the tackles at a high volume a power runner better hold onto the football. You’re going to see throughout this unusual run that he keeps the ball high and tight to his body. There are points during this run where his elbow comes loose from his side, but considering what he has to do during this 12-yard touchdown run his ball security is praiseworthy.

Gurley has the ball tucked to his left side on a run to the left. Even when he has stop short of his path outside the initial block and make a sharp bounce to the inside the ball doesn’t swing loose from his chest. This is one of the most common errors of ball security I see with running backs. They can execute incredible displays of agility and balance, but the ball-carrying arm flies loose of the body and the passing traffic may not tackle the ball carrier, but they can force a fumble.

A good stiff arm or straight-arm isn’t just for attacking defenders or avoiding a wrap-up. Gurley uses his free arm to work around bodies in space. He places his arm on the back of the lineman to stabilize his change of direction and prevent a collision with his teammate.

One of the more impressive parts of this run is Gurley’s feet. For a big back with long speed, he also has some excellent short area quickness. Watch him stutter his steps to slow his path to the outside, keep his balance after establishing contact with the blocker, and then plant with both feet to bounce the run inside. This is a great on-field example of balance and agility.

As Gurley exits the hole, the ball remains high to his chest. While the elbow could be tighter, the runner’s ball security is good enough to avoid the rip attempt by the Clemson defender. If you look close enough you can actually see Gurley squeezing the ball tighter as No.11’s arm reaches towards the ball.

From the point Gurley declares a path at the line of scrimmage until he reaches the end zone, his pad level is excellent. I also like how high his knees are as he approaches the defender he’s about to stiff arm. Note that he makes first contact with the oncoming defender and at the same time squeezes the ball high and tight. Once the defender makes contact with Gurley’s body, the Georgia runner begins to drive through it with even lower pad level.

Whether it’s a sharp cut, a change of direction, a stiff arm, or running through a defender’s wrap, Gurley’s ball security is high and tight. For a back with his strength and home run-hitting skill, it would be easy for him to run with greater abandon. The fact that he doesn’t will endear him to coaches if he can continue to display this good habit in the NFL.

These characteristics don’t guarantee that Gurley will be a star as a professional. Cedric Benson had excellent agility and footwork and true power. He had years with good production, but he would never be considered an upper echelon runner.  Everyone loves Trent Richardson’s potential and while he has displayed that he is one of the more exciting young talents at the position, but he hasn’t proven he’s one of the better backs in the NFL.

What this play demonstrates is that Gurley has the skills to earn a grade within the realm of Benson and Richardson’s draft scores. The difference is that the value of running back has changed enough that there’s a 50-50 chance Gurley doesn’t find a team until the second round. You can ask draftniks more about that possibility. I’m not trying to be a junior GM from my home office – I have too many players to study for playing dress-up.

For analysis of skill players in this year’s draft class, download the 2014 Rookie Scouting Portfolio – available now. Better yet, if you’re a fantasy owner the 56-page Post-Draft Add-on comes with the 2012 – 2014 RSPs at no additional charge. Best, yet, 10 percent of every sale is donated to Darkness to Light to combat sexual abuse. You can purchase past editions of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio for just $9.95 apiece. 

You can begin placing orders for the 2015 RSP in January. 

Futures: UCLA OLB Anthony Barr

0 Comments read 2014 NFL Draft, Players
Anthony Barr has a first-round grade from at least one scouting department I know. What will it take for him to crack the top-10? Photo by Neon Tommy.
Anthony Barr has a first-round grade from at least one scouting department I know. What will it take for him to crack the top-10? Photo by Neon Tommy.

Futures: UCLA OLB Anthony Barr

by Matt Waldman

Which one is not like the others? Aldon Smith. Dion Jordan. Anthony Barr. If you ask Nebraska Offensive Line Coach John Garrison orNFL.com’s Daniel Jeremiah, they’ll tell you Barr is stylistically similar to both players. While Jeremiah polled five NFL Execs with a question specifically framed to link Jordan and Barr, there are people in the NFL who see the outside linebacker from UCLA as a different style of player than the Dolphins’ rookie.

A current NFL employee who has worked with several teams in the player-personnel scouting arena doesn’t see the Barr-Jordan comparison as an accurate one.

“Barr is a bit of an enigma at this point, but a very gifted athlete. I like the versatility he shows. It’s hard to think of him as anything but a strong first-round prospect. At the same time he’s a tough read; definitely not cut and dried as to where he’ll fit best in the NFL. He was very raw last year and isn’t the same athlete as Dion Jordan,” he says, explaining that the 6-foot-3 Barr lacks the length and height of the 6-foot-6 Jordan. “I don’t see the same ceiling that Jordan has as a rusher, but Barr is more versatile and very capable of playing [outside linebacker] in the 3-4 at a high level. As far as body types and skill-sets, they’re pretty different. I think Barr is closer to a raw Clay Matthews or Brian Orakpo type.”

If a college player earns a first-round grade from NFL scouts based on junior film it usually means there’s a strong case he could be a top-10 pick. This is the case for Barr, who made the switch from fullback to linebacker last year and had an eye-catching rookie season at the position:

  • 82 tackles
  • 21 tackles for loss
  • 14 sacks
  • 4 forced fumbles
  • 4 hurries
  • 5 passes defensed

These are good numbers for a player who still has a lot to learn about the techniques and concepts of playing his new position. One of the big reasons is speed. This is what Smith, Jordan, and Barr have in common.

It’s also the reason why this NFL employee doesn’t agree with Executive No.5 in Jeremiah’s August poll about Barr-Jordan that states, “Barr by far. He’s much stronger, and he’s not a one-trick pony. Jordan relies solely on speed.”

Reads Listens Views: Friday the 13th of 2013

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If Brady truly is "bad WR-proof" he'll be a fine value even with MacGregor's long-term deal. Photo by Jeffrey Beall.
Brady wasn’t “bad WR-proof” this week, but real football fans should be patient. Fantasy owners? Listen to my buddy Sigmund Bloom next time, will ya?  Photo by Jeffrey Beall.

Commentary: Thursday Night’s Game

I have several thoughts to share about the Jets-Pats game:

Turn on something electronic – a TV, a computer, a phone, or for you super-rich folks, a pair of spectacles – and you’ll that the Thursday Night match-up was a dog. A wet, smelly dog shaking itself all over your living room furniture.

I loved this game for exactly this reason. Football might be pure business for front offices and media, but let’s not let their perspective cloud our enjoyment of the game. I spend way too much time dealing with the technique and strategy of the game. So do my colleagues. We need to remember that football – and life – is also a game of emotion.

How teams handle the ups and downs of mistakes, obstacles, and setbacks like bad calls and injuries is often just as important as the cold, calculated execution of strategy. We celebrate Adrian Peterson’s amazing comeback from an ACL tear by talking about how freakish of an athlete he is and the advancements in surgical technology, but we don’t acknowledge the resilience of a great football player who was able to harness the fear, the doubt, and the anger into a 2012 performance that was one of the most emotionally inspiring seasons I’ve seen on a football field.

The Patriots offense also underscores the precarious balance teams must have when it comes to patience and action in a sport with a short season. New England’s passing game is no longer the juggernaut, but it doesn’t mean that these rookie wide receivers won’t develop. Kenbrell Thompkins still had some route issues, but he also forced a pass interference penalty and came inches from making a diving catch for a touchdown if not for a throw that Tom Brady could have done a better job with. Aaron Dobson had issues with his hands technique at Marshall, but this was his first NFL game.

Yet, there isn’t a lot of time for the Patriots’ receivers to get it together and help the team succeed this season unless Rob Gronkowski can return soon and take some of the pressure off them. Otherwise the learning curve will remain steep. As former NFL Scout Dan Shonka mentioned last night, Chad Johnson is still trying the learn the Patriots offense. Keep that in mind before writing off any rookie receiver long-term.

Then there’s Geno Smith. I liked what I saw. He did a lot of good things to put his teammates into position to make winning plays. He made mistakes, but what did you really expect from him?

Smith did better than I expected with this receiving corps. The offensive line continues to show more than it did last year, too. While I get what Chris Wesseling was saying in his Friday morning “What We Learned” the Geno Smith is not ready, I think the truth is that Smith is not ready to be a fantasy football starter or a commodity that writers at NFL.com can talk about on the level of an established starter.

Smith is ready to learn on the job. He’s ready to compete and keep his team in the game. He’s ready to do what every other young quarterback has to do. The difference is the talent level he has around him to do it.

Is he as good as Luck or Wilson? No. Was what he did this week that far away from Ryan Tannehill’s performances last year? Not really. However, the mistakes will be more magnified because he’s on the team that, if Dallas is America’s team, then Jets are America’s punching bag. There’s another element at play, but I don’t have time today to provide a nuanced argument about it.

Unfortunately, I’m sure it will continue to manifest enough to write about it later.

Listens – It’s “Elvin Jones” but I can’t change my playlist on YouTube.

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6bEE4K6c3xE&feature=share&list=PLX1Nx57UJgZl53eNHohk-mVzsSnylKbJu]

Thanks

New follower? Every Friday, I post links from around the web that I’m reading. You might not like all of the links, but you’ll enjoy something here. It’s also to thank you for following me, reading this blog, and buying the Rookie Scouting Portfolio. It’s the most comprehensive analysis of skill players available. And if all the scouting service reports look like the ones I’ve seen , it’s also by far the most comprehensive analysis player-for-player that you’ll find anywhere. Which frankly, is a little shocking to me, but based on how much emphasis is spent on travel and interviewing players and coaches over studying film, I’m beginning to come to grips with it.

Download the RSP for $19.95 or past issues (2006-2012) for $9.95 and 10 percent of every sale goes to Darkness To Light, an organization dedicated to preventing sexual abuse and training individuals and organizations on the dynamics involved with this criminal behavior that is an epidemic in our world.

Views I – Brady Hoke 

Courtesy of Bob Henry via an LSU fan.
Courtesy of Bob Henry via an LSU fan.

Football Reads

Views II – My Wife Told Me To Take Notes . . .

[youtube=http://youtu.be/sN91agpSTf8]

I told her that her five personalities need to take notes, especially the one in the corner of the classroom fabricating a shiv from a metal desk leg. Was that wrong of me to say? I know, Joe Bryant, flowers. Plenty of flowers.

Non Football Reads

Reads Listens Views 9/6/2013

0 Comments read Reads Listens Views
He'll be back . . .
Hawaii, he’ll be back . . .

Views I: The One Specific Type of Play Where Speed Impresses

[youtube=http://youtu.be/7DhkdDl41WU]

As studly as this play is, without his skills that account for 95% of his talent I wouldn’t have cared less. Still fun to see a 230-lb. back outpace a good angle by a defensive back. By the way stay tuned for my analysis on Clemson wide receiver Sammy Watkins, who in my opinion has the ability to lap the field of every college wide receiver playing – except for one. I’ll be writing about that guy, too.

Tom Melton, I see you.

Listens I:

[youtube=http://youtu.be/OFj19M9RqT0]

Thanks to Bryan Zukowski, who is often my go-to guy for quality vids. He knows a kickin’ drummer when he hears one.

Thanks

copy-inverted-2013-rsp.png

If you’re new to the RSP, thanks for reading. I post 3-5 times a week and one of those posts is this Friday ritual where I link to material I’m consuming around the web: football articles, non-football articles, music, videos, spoken word, photos, you name it. It’s also where I thank you for supporting this blog as a reader and most important, downloading the Rookie Scouting Portfolio publication.

Why Buy The RSP? Because you not only learn the ins and outs of the rookies who get drafted, but you get the low-down on UDFAs and small-school projects. Kenbrell Thompkins, Zach Sudfeld, Marlon Brown, and Benny Cunningham are good examples from this year alone.

For $19.95 you get a 1200-page pre-draft publication that is one-part 200-page draft magazine bookmarked for easy reading and other-part 1000-page tome that shows all the work to make the front half insightful: grading checklists for each player according to his position, a glossary that defines the grading system and each thing I score, and all my play-by-play notes on each player. I show my math for even the most diehard, nut-job – and I have plenty of them (they’re my kind of people).

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Views II: I Don’t Hate Big Business, But I Do Have Contempt For Their Methodology To Keep Customers Who Don’t Want Them

[youtube=http://youtu.be/xh1qCf-ohOQ]

Football Reads

Views III: Twerking + Vanity = You’re On Fire (Literally)

[youtube=http://youtu.be/863wwm28f4Y]

Non Football Reads

Listens II: Marcus Miller – “Jean Pierre”

[youtube=http://youtu.be/G7Q8Ual3coM]

My favorite electric bassist alive today.

On Scouting Wide Receivers

0 Comments read 2011 NFL Draft, 2012 NFL Draft, 2013 NFL Draft, 2014 NFL Draft, Players, Wide Receiver
If you're trying to find the next Dez Bryant, then data has a vital place but if you take the approach that tries to reverse engineer a process that is unintentionally based on the idea that all productive receivers are like Dez Bryant, it's misguided. Photo by A.J. Guel.
If you’re trying to find the next Dez Bryant, then data has a vital place but if you take the approach that tries to reverse engineer a process that is unintentionally based on the idea that all productive receivers are like Dez Bryant, it’s misguided. Photo by A.J. Guel.

I believe analytics have value, but the grading of wide receivers based heavily on speed, vertical skill, and production is an ambitious, but misguided idea. Further the application is the torturing of data to fit it into a preconceived idea and making it sound objective and scientific due to the use of quantitative data.  Unless the data is getting into some Nate Silver-like probability analysis, analytics is going to arrive at conclusions that are safe based on the past, but lack game-changing predictive value.

Some of my colleagues and friends at Football Outsiders, Pro Football Focus, and RotoViz will disagree.  And many of you will too, because you’ve bought the idea that what’s being studied is objective and scientific. There is often an air of certainty and black-and-white finality to the communication of this “quantitative” information that readers find more palatable than if “qualitative” information is delivered with the same tone. Numbers make people sound more powerful and intellectual even if the quality of the information isn’t well designed.

I can tell you that I write because I put words together in a pattern that you can read. It doesn’t mean that I’m writing well. The NFL has bought into analytics for reasons that are both sound and naive. Analytics should only get better over time and I believe in its future. I just don’t buy into it lock, stock, and barrel.  I think in this area of study with wide receivers, analytics needs to raise its standard and find another way.

The NFL will realize this about some methods of analytics sooner than later. Many teams are seeking a magic pill without fully understanding the manufacturing process that goes into it. Since they have been able to get this information for a modest fee and oftentimes at no charge in the early days (and we’re just emerging from the earliest of days in the era of analytics)  because these individuals and companies found the payment of notoriety an acceptable alternative to money.

It only makes sense that “quants” figured they could make the money off readers later if they couldn’t earn it from teams now. This dynamic is also changing, but it’s worth understanding the nature behind their relationship with the league. Fortunately for both parties, they will continue to work together and only deliver better products on and off the field.

I’m trying to do the same from a different vantage point. The more I watch wide receivers, the less I care about 40 times, vertical results, or broad jumps. Once a player meets the acceptable baselines for physical skills, the rest is about hands, technique, understanding defenses, consistency, and the capacity to improve.

I liked Kenbrell Thompkins, Marlon Brown, Austin Collie, (retired) Steve Smith, several other receivers lacking the headlining “analytical” formulas that use a variety of physical measurements and production to find “viable” prospects. What these players share is some evidence of “craft”. They weren’t perfect technicians at the college level or early in their NFL careers, but you could see evidence of a meticulous attention to detail that continued to get better.

This video does an excellent job of explaining why speed is the most overrated part of a wide receiver’s game. Speed should be seen as the icing and not the cake. Technique is the cake. It’s a great instructional guide on route releases and breaks, how they differ on the NFL level. Check it out. I continue to on a regular basis.

[youtube=http://youtu.be/ZLjgZc0sYIc]

For analysis of skill players in this year’s draft class, download the 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio available now. Better yet, if you’re a fantasy owner the 56-page Post-Draft Add-on comes with the 2013 RSP at no additional charge and available for download within a week after the NFL Draft. Best, yet, 10 percent of every sale is donated to Darkness to Light to combat sexual abuse. You can purchase past editions of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio for just $9.95 apiece.