Posts tagged Rookie Scouting Portfolio

Flashes: WR Allen Hurns, Miami

0 Comments read 2014 NFL Draft, Players, Wide Receiver
Receptions verus contact heighten my attention to a player's potential. Photo of Victor Cruz by Kat Vitulano
Receptions verus contact heighten my attention to a player’s potential. Photo of Victor Cruz by Kat Vitulano

Long-time college and NFL coach Dave Wannestedt told an ESPN crew that he awarded Dion Lewis a full ride to Pitt after watching just one play of the Browns running back’s high school tape. Sounds foolish, but I won’t lie: There are some plays impressive enough that you realize you’ve seen much of what you need to see. These are rare moments and other than Adrian Peterson, I can’t remember the last time I experienced that feeling about a player after witnessing one play.

While no magic pill, there is a type of play for wide receivers that is guaranteed to heighten my interest in a player. I call it the Money Catch. Give me a receiver who can make these consistently and I’m less concerned about his height, weight, 40-time, bench press, or stats. A receiver who demonstrates this skill may not become an NFL starter, but there are few quality NFL starters who lack this ability.

University of Miami wide receiver Allen Hurns flashes this skill. The 6’3″, 195-pound prospect also provides a good illustration of a technique flaw I’ve heard many pro receivers discuss: Leaving one’s feet to catch a target that doesn’t require it. I still have more to watch of Hurns’ game, but here are three clear examples of good technique and a habit that needs curbing.

Money Catch

[youtube=http://youtu.be/JT5gkKPpWiw]

This is a 3rd-and-16 pass from a 1×2 receiver, 11 personnel shotgun set from a 3-3-5 look. Quarterback Stephen Morris’ makes a fine throw for Hurns to have an opportunity to make the reception. Still, it’s the wide receiver on this pitch and catch who does the dirty work. Hurns finds the opening in the zone under one safety and inside another on this post route after getting an inside release on the corner in shallow zone.

One of the tougher aspects of a catch with impending contact is when a player gets “ping-ponged” or hit in succession in different directions so one hit ricochets him into another from the opposite direction. Hurns does a fine job of protecting the football on this target.

If I were to nitpick, the hand position to catch the football could be a little better. Ideal hand position would be for Hurns’ index fingers angled upward but point towards each other rather than at 12 o’clock. The hands should look a spider web. This technique reduces the likelihood of the ball sliding through the fingers.

Overall, a strong play.

Leaving Feet – Part I

[youtube=http://youtu.be/yjAR_4CS_6Y]

This target is a 3rd-and-7 pass for a 10-yard gain from the UM 31 with 2:38 in the half. Hurns is the single receiver from a 11 personnel, 1×2 shotgun set. He is lined outside the numbers in the right flat with two safeties split towards the hashes.

The CB on Hurns is playing seven yards off and bails early, leaving a cushion for Hurns to break his route at the first down marker. He makes the catch with his hands, but if you look closely, just as his hands make contact with the ball he leaves his feet. He’s already trying to get into position to run.

The idea is a good one, but this is where the habit of leaping to catch a ball when not required can create a lapse of concentration. Hurns fails to secure the ball with the initial touch and fights the ball into his body during his turn. While not conclusive, I believe his adjustment disorients him just enough that he takes the wrong path down field towards three defenders rather than running up the sideline.

I like that Hurns gains three yards after the catch and bounces off contact with a good finish, but if he catches the ball with his feet on the ground, turns and takes an outside path towards the cornerback in a one-on-one situation, I think he gains a lot more than three yards.

Leaving Feet – Part II

[youtube=http://youtu.be/3-lAJwFkXSQ]

This is a 2nd and goal from the six with 6:11 in the third quarter from another three-receiver, 11 personnel shotgun. Hurns runs the slant and drops the ball after an initial juggle of the target. Watch the two replays after the first airing and you’ll see where Hurns takes a long step to gather his body for a jump. Because the pass is a little late and to the back shoulder, Hurns cannot make a strong adjustment to the ball after this elongated step forces him to leave his feet.

The throw could have been better, but Hurns’ habit of going airborne – even if it’s not a jump with any height – not only diminishes Hurns’ ability to focus on looking the ball into his hands, but also creates situations where he commits to a direction before the target arrives.

For analysis of skill players in this year’s draft class, download the 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio.The 2014 RSP will available April 1 and if you pre-order before February 10, you get a 10 percent discount. Better yet, if you’re a fantasy owner the 56-page Post-Draft Add-on comes with the 2012 – 2014 RSPs at no additional charge and available for download within a week after the NFL Draft. Best, yet, 10 percent of every sale is donated to Darkness to Light to combat sexual abuse. You can purchase past editions of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio for just $9.95 apiece.

Fantasy Throwdown – Free Weekly Fantasy Football

0 Comments read Matt Waldman

Try Fantasy Throwdown – a free, simple, convenient and fast way to play every day that will keep you coming back for more.

Fantasy Throwdown is a game with one-on-one match ups allow you to challenge anyone, anytime. You can play 20 times in a week or you can play once a month – whatever fits your schedule. Lineups include PPR/non-PPR; Team Defense/IDP; and flex options – including 2QB leagues.Challenge friends or other users on the site.It’s easy to learn:

  • Challenge a friend or another person on the site.
  • You and your opponent determine the three games for that week that will comprise your player draft pool.
  • Pick your games wisely as well as your draft order, because you each get to block a player from the draft pool during the draft. If there’s only two good QBs from those games you selected, you can set it up to force your opponent to settle for a scrub.
  • Draft your team.

The draft room displays the summary of the challenges lineup requirements, scoring rules, and players each team has to pick.

Drafts take 10 minutes if you and your opponent are both online. Or you can stretch out the draft throughout the course of the week or even do predraft settings.

Challenge me to a game either by registering and looking me up on the Leaderboard in the Lobby (matt) or use my email address: thegutcheck@gmail.com.

Flashes: QB Chase Rettig, Boston College

0 Comments read 2014 NFL Draft, Players, Quarterback
Chase Rettig isn't Kurt Warner, but was Kurt Warner, "Kurt Warner" as a first-year starter as a senior at Northern Iowa. Photo by Photogeek21
Chase Rettig isn’t Kurt Warner, but was Kurt Warner, “Kurt Warner” as a first-year starter as a senior at Northern Iowa? Photo by Photogeek21

Playing quarterback at a high level requires a pairing of skill sets that at times seem paradoxical. Intense preparation and freewheeling improvisational skill. Finesse and grit. Control and abandon. An elephantine memory and selective amnesia.

It’s why it’s the toughest position to evaluate. Kurt Warner sat on the bench at Northern Iowa for three years. The fourth year, he was the Gateway Conference’s Offensive Player of the Year.  We know the rest of the story. Johnny Unitas was cut by the Pittsburgh Steelers. Brett Favre might have drunk himself into a stupor if he stayed in Atlanta where then-Falcons’ head coach Jerry Glanville promised the only way Favre would get onto the field was a “plane crash“.

I wouldn’t bet my pocket change that Boston College senior Chase Rettig becomes a quality starter in the NFL. There are way too many factors to consider to draw a conclusion at this point. Yet there are qualities to his game that I like a lot that give him potential as a pocket passer. And yes, there are still pocket passers thriving in the NFL.

Rettig has played since his freshman year at Boston College and has the dubious distinction of working with five offensive coordinators in three years. Browns journeyman backup Jason Campbell can relate – and not just from his days with the Redskins. He had multiple offensive systems during his Auburn career.

Most don’t project Chase Rettig as a draft-worthy quarterback heading into the 2013 college season. However, Rettig plays well enough to earn consideration in early May even if his team continues its underwhelming play.

Arm Strength

[youtube=http://youtu.be/iPECd046PSU]

This is a 3rd-and-10 pass to his receiver, Alex Amidon on a deep out. Rettig faces Miami’s defense of freshmen and sophomores at the BC 32 versus a defense with two safeties high. This appears to be a Cover 2 look, especially as we see the pass arrive between two defenders. Rettig begins the play with a three-step drop, takes a hitch step to buy time, and then climbs the pocket away from the pressure coming from the edges.

The movement  has precision and Rettig maintains enough balance and position to deliver this deep out from the BC 25 to Amidon at the UM 47 just outside the numbers of the right flat and between the safety and linebacker. The fact he has to climb the pocket and still hits the receiver on time with good placement at helmet level is another indication that Rettig has fundamentally sound technique and a strong enough arm for NFL teams to work with.

Precision and Finesse

[youtube=http://youtu.be/jdbobFeTsNs]

Rettig’s execution on this 1st-and-10 pass with 4:30 in the half at the UM 23 from a 1×2 receiver, 11 personnel set is a fine demonstration of precision on a few levels. He faces two safeties deep and a 4-3 front with man coverage on the outside. Rettig extends his arm on the play fake to the RB before finishing a five step drop and this forces the Miami linebackers to attend to the prospect of the run. Rettig finishes his drop and delivers a nice seam route behind the linebacker and safety after his back foot hits the ground.

Although the ball goes through the tight end’s arms, I thought it was a good display of touch and placement. The tight end was late to get his hands up and the receiver wasn’t precise with his hand placement. Target a starting tight end – or several backups – in the NFL and this is a touchdown.

Eye Discipline and Footwork

[youtube=http://youtu.be/Ou2u_5JIomw]

This six-yard completion with 12:42 in the third quarter doesn’t seem like much of a play, but there are some nice things happening here. Rettig’s receiver Amidon is the outside twin receiver outside the numbers. Rettig executes a play-action fake to the running back, hitches twice, and finds his receiver breaking back to the passer on the hook.

Going a little deeper, this throw is placed in a tight zone in a window optimal for the receiver. Rettig once again displays nice footwork to climb the pocket away from outside pressure and keep his eyes down field. Moreover, Rettig sets this up by beginning his drop with a long enough look to the middle of the field, which holds the linebackers in place and opens this zone for Amidon to work underneath.

Under Pressure

[youtube=http://youtu.be/5-uMbIslftA]

Here’s another small gain, but a nice play on a 3rd-and-four. Rettig’s target is Amidon, the receiver at the top of the screen. UM plays two safeties deep and rushes four. As you can see thus far, when Rettig has time to get that back foot into the ground he flashes arm strength and sometimes hyper-accuracy.

On this play, Rettig doesn’t get that time. Miami earns inside penetration off each tackle. Rettig looks to the middle, slides to the left, and makes a nice throw off his back foot with enough velocity to hit the receiver crossing from outside-inside into decent coverage. The receiver gets the first down and Rettig takes a hit after making the throw.

While the true test of a passer with physical gifts is to deliver a ball on-target and off-balance in the middle zone, this short-zone throw is still notable.

Awareness and Feel

[youtube=http://youtu.be/v8DXxz8q0nY]

Although this play doesn’t end well for the Eagles, Rettig placed the team in great position for a big-play on this 1st-and-10 with 12:32 in the game. Miami plays a single-high safety and decides to begin sending more than four men into the pocket. This is the first of several five-man pressure packages that come in the fourth quarter and they fail to sack Rettig once.

The play was designed for Rettig to find one of three receivers flooding the various zones on the left side of the field after a play-action boot in that direction. However, the safety forces the action early with his blitz. Rettig has a good feel for the location of his running back working the right flat on a bullet route as the backside receiver and is agile enough to pivot right and make an accurate throw with the defender in his face for a big gain that ends with a turnover.

While there’s nothing but good shown here, there are some things to note by nature of their absence.  Rettig never threw the ball away in this game and considering he is known for holding onto the ball too long and taking sacks, there was nothing in this game to dispel this behavior. Rettig also has a high touchdown-to-interception total. The BC quarterback tossed an interception in this game where he didn’t read the underneath coverage on a slant and he attempted a number of tight-window throws.

I’m more concerned about the mix of aggression and discipline with interceptions than holding onto the ball too long. If Rettig can actually play in the same offensive system for a few years, this tendency could diminish over time. However, high interceptions rates also a result of a team playing from behind and forcing a quarterback to take risks. I saw several of these attempts at the end of this game where the quarterback might have had smarter choices, but not the time left in the contest to act with care.

For analysis of skill players in this year’s draft class, download the 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio.The 2014 RSP will available April 1 and if you pre-order before February 10, you get a 10 percent discount. Better yet, if you’re a fantasy owner the 56-page Post-Draft Add-on comes with the 2012 – 2014 RSPs at no additional charge and available for download within a week after the NFL Draft. Best, yet, 10 percent of every sale is donated to Darkness to Light to combat sexual abuse. You can purchase past editions of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio for just $9.95 apiece.

Reads Listens Views 8/30/2013

0 Comments read Reads Listens Views
Good player with a chance to seal this feature role with Andrew Brown out. Photo by Football Schedule.
Good player with a chance to seal this feature role with Andrew Brown out. Photo by Football Schedule.

Now What?

Andre Brown is gone and David Wilson will be a hot commodity. The same people hot for Wilson will probably be less thrilled about the Giants running back in the first month if Footballguys writer Matt Bitonti is correct about his assessment of New York’s offensive line. On our Thursday Night Audible podcast, Bitonti explained that the injuries to David Diehl and David Baas are good reasons why the unit may struggle early. If you want to play the ultra-slick move, don’t trade for Wilson now. Wait for the line to struggle, Wilson to have boom-bust production, and get him at a lesser cost by Weeks 3-5. By the end of the season, you might have a running back producing at a top-five clip in your fantasy leagues. The risk might be that Wilson’s big-play ability will compensate for the line’s struggles, but if you’re simply dealing from a strength, why not wait and see?

Also, look for the Giants to add a runner. Sigmund Bloom mentioned Tim Hightower. Good name. I’d also see if they scan the waiver wire or consider a bigger name free agent or trades for a backup if none of the pickings on the waiver wire next week suit them.

Marlon Brown continues to impress. So is Jordan Todman. Add Benny Cunningham to the list, and you’re looking at three players you might consider adding if you’re in a 20 (Brown), 30 (Todman), or 40-man (Cunningham) roster league. Brown has high-end starter upside. Todman has enough skill to provide committee support as a lead back if Maurice Jones-Drew gets hurt. And Cunningham? Think of a poor man’s Stephen Davis in terms of his style. I’m really impressed with his return from an injury that would have prevented many athletes from producing in training camp. The same goes for Brown.

Thank You

If you’re a new follower, Friday is the day of the week that I thank you for supporting the Rookie Scouting Portfolio Publication and this blog I maintain and provide links to things I’m reading, listening, and viewing. You may not like everything, but I think you’ll like something.

If you’re not aware, I donate 10 percent of every sale to the Darkness to Light, a non-profit that creates and administers training programs to combat and prevent sexual abuse in communities across the country. I do this because at this time I do not have time to give back as a volunteer to any cause on a regular basis.

I chose this cause for several reasons. Among them was the Penn State scandal, which was a macrocosm of the dynamics at play when a child is victimized and those responsible for protecting them make all the wrong decisions. Sexual abuse doesn’t “ruin” children. What’s often far more damaging is the behavior of the men and women who are supposed to protect, support, and help the children who report being victimized and are often not believed and even shamed for seeking help.

And it’s not just the victims who have to carry the burden of what was done to them by the abuser and those adults who did nothing to help them.

Download the 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio or better yet, donate to Darkness to Light.  Be a part of the solution they have developed to educate schools, community organizations, and civil service organizations on the data and dynamics that define this problem of epidemic proportions.  At the very least read these Five Steps to Protecting Children.

Listens

[youtube=http://youtu.be/gxJXgCr63LU]

Football Reads

Listens

Buika: Tiny Desk Concert

Non-Football Reads

Views – Nothing Gets Me Ready For the Season More Than Watching Some Marshall Faulk

[youtube=http://youtu.be/QvMyJWJUE5g]

Win a 2013 RSP Today – CONTEST CLOSED

0 Comments read RSP Publication
Hint. Photo by PDA Photo
Hint. Photo by PDA Photo

I’m giving gave away three 10 Rookie Scouting Portfolios today. This is over 1400 pages of pre-draft and post-draft gold distilled into an easy-to-access reference guide for fantasy owners and draftniks alike. If you’re one of the first three people to find the page on my site and give the correct answers, you win.

Details/Clues

There is a page on my site with three names of NFL players. You won’t recognize these players at first unless you have a really good eye at brain teasers. Find the page, complete the task on the page and submit the answers on the form on the page and the first three 10 correct answers win won.

More Clues:

  • I think the best place to start looking is to “Go Home”
  • Once I’m home, I’d consider hitting the bar.
  • At this particular bar, you’ll have seven broad choices. I’d see what it’s all About.

Good luck!

RSO Writers’ League Diary Preseason Week 3

0 Comments read Matt Waldman
RSO founder Matt Papson acquired Antonio Brown as a part of a rebuilding plan. Photo by bmward_2000.
RSO founder Matt Papson acquired Antonio Brown as a part of a rebuilding plan. Photo by bmward_2000.

Every month I’ll be writing something about the start-up keeper-contract-salary-auction league I’m running at Reality Sports Online. You can read more about RSO’s excellent league format here. And if you want to start a league with your friends or join a league as an individual, you can earn a 20 percent discount when you use the promo code RSP20%OFF. 

in case you missed it, I recruited some of my favorite competitors from the fantasy football industry to participate:

  1. Jeff Tefertiller – Footballguys
  2. Ryan McDowell – Dynasty League Football
  3. Sigmund Bloom – Footballguys
  4. Mike MacGregor – FFToday
  5. Bryan Fontaine – Pro Football Focus
  6. Tim Stafford – Dynasty League Football
  7. Matt Papson- Reality Sports Online
  8. Matt Waldman – Footballguys/RSP/Football Outsiders
  9. Jason Wood – Footballguys
  10. Mike Clay – Pro Football Focus/NBC
  11. Bob Harris and Mike Dempsey – Football Diehards/Sirius XM
  12. Rivers McCown – Football Outsiders
  13. Jim Day – Fantasy Taz
  14. Lance Zierlein – Sideline View

You can’t get much better when it comes to the combined fantasy football savvy of this crew. Since the draft ended in late May there have been 56 waiver wire transactions and 33 players traded to other in the past 93 days. That’s almost a player changing hands per day. RSO founder Matt Papson is behind 19 of these trades after he inherited a team after the draft with a huge cap surplus. Here’s who he’s traded and acquired during this time:

Dealt

  • 3rd Round Pick
  • Maurice Jones-Drew
  • Eddie Royal
  • Zach Ertz
  • Dennis Pitta
  • Plaxico Burress
  • Ryan Fitzpatrick
  • Robert Meachem
  • Knowshon Moreno
  • Mark Sanchez

These are players that were acquired in the auction by the former owner who had to leave early due to unforseen circumstances and he didn’t leave much of a draft list. The result was a team with a lot of D-level fantasy performers but a ton of cap room to use.

Naturally, the former Eagles employee Papson has Michael Vick as his starter in the Reality Sports Online Writer's League. Photo by Matthew Straubmuller.
Naturally, the former Eagles employee Papson has Michael Vick as his starter in the Reality Sports Online Writer’s League. Photo by Matthew Straubmuller.

 

Papson, a former cap expert with the Philadelphia Eagles, jumped at the opportunity to take over this team because he realized how much financial leeway he had to rebuild the team by giving cap relief to the rest of the league in return for more promising long-term options.  You’ll see what I mean with the acquisitions below:

  • Alex Smith
  • Vick Ballard
  • Antonio Brown
  • Jonathan Baldwin
  • Rashard Mendenhall
  • Chad Henne
  • Michael Crabtree
  • Darrius Heyward-Bey
  • Donald Brown
  • Aaron Hernandez

Because Papson had so much cap room, he could absorb salaries of less-inspired options like Hernandez, Henne,  Brown, and Baldwin, while acquiring strong starters like Antonio Brown and Crabtree and serviceable depth like Smith, Mendenhall, Ballard, and Heyward-Bey.

His team now looks a lot better than it did after the draft:

  • QBs (start 1): Michael Vick, Alex Smith, and Chad Henne
  • RBs (start 2): Rashard Mendenhall, Ryan Mathews, Jonathan Dwyer Christine Michael, Vick Ballard, Peyton Hillis, Delone Carter, Donald Brown, and James Starks
  • WRs (start 3-4): Antonio Brown, Kenny Britt,  Darrius Heyward-Bey, Aaron Mellette, Michael Crabtree, Jason Avant, Harry Douglas, Michael Jenkins, Chris Harper, Eric Rogers, and Jonathan Baldwin
  • TEs (start 1-2): Kyle Rudolph, Anthony Fasano, Delanie Walker, and Michael Hoomanawanui
  • DST: New England
  • PK: David Akers

The team doesn’t have a great outlook this year unless he has 2-3 strong surprises at running back  and at least one overachiever at receiver. However, Papson is in a much better position to turn this team into a much better squad in 2014 due to his cap room of $28 million.

TEAM 2013 2013 ROOM 2014 2015 2016
SALARY SALARY SALARY SALARY
Matt Waldman $120,343,604 $2,656,396 $77,840,327 $17,472,051 $5,180,000
Sigmund Bloom $114,401,854 $8,598,146 $76,924,424 $66,591,995 $22,960,000
Bob Harris $92,170,194 $30,829,806 $54,648,827 $17,112,459 $0
Tim Stafford $116,270,444 $6,729,556 $94,096,434 $62,852,424 $20,580,000
Bryan Fontaine $111,816,814 $11,183,186 $72,813,210 $30,729,608 $1,960,000
Matt Papson $94,988,621 $28,011,379 $64,724,175 $19,619,729 $0
Jim Day $122,217,721 $782,279 $84,071,728 $61,630,735 $17,780,000
Jeff Tefertiller $123,000,227 ($227) $119,408,970 $71,227,712 $16,800,000
Jason Wood $121,988,128 $1,011,872 $94,011,311 $48,419,492 $19,740,000
Rivers McCown $115,153,657 $7,846,343 $78,761,128 $61,638,599 $15,820,000
Mike MacGregor $111,856,984 $11,143,016 $88,618,392 $63,934,800 $27,160,000
Lance Zierlein $112,661,484 $10,338,516 $71,608,178 $50,644,871 $7,420,000
Ryan McDowell $106,429,757 $16,570,243 $73,579,640 $61,004,523 $28,980,000
Mike Clay $121,503,737 $1,496,263 $46,694,512 $14,700,286 $3,640,000

The cap room over the next three years is likely the most fascinating aspect of this league. Will owners like Papson and Bob Harris benefit from the space as injuries and disappointing performances teams throughout the league? Can they acquire the right players that this money will afford them? All great questions as we move forward.

My Team

I’ve had 10 waiver wire transactions since May and most are players I’ve been monitoring during camp. I’m hoping that some of them show enough long-term promise for me to tag at year’s end or they surprise this year:

  • Zach Sudfeld – until the Patriots tight end fumbled the ball with the one’s on Thursday night, he has been excellent. I still think he earns playing time and might surprise with starter production in fantasy leagues at least until Rob Gronkowski returns. He’s fine depth behind my starter Vernon Davis if Dwayne Allen doesn’t look good after rehabbing a foot injury.
  • C.J. Anderson – This sounds crazy, but if he didn’t get hurt he might have been this year’s Alfred Morris. A big back with a low center of gravity, Anderson looked more impressive breaking tackles and avoiding penetration than any back on the Broncos depth chart and was just earning second-team reps when he went down. I think the Broncos will keep him and give him a shot to work his way up the depth chart in the second half of the season. I was impressed with Anderson at Cal, but didn’t think he’d be drafted because he wasn’t the starter at Cal. For some additional perspective, neither was Willie Parker at UNC, Priest Holmes at Texas, William Andrews at Auburn (played FB for Joe Cribbs), or Terrell Davis at Georgia.
  • Russell Shephard – I don’t think he’ll do much this year, but I do think he flashed enough as a rookie with little experience at the position that he could develop at a fast rate and earn a bigger shot by next year. Former Rice quarterback Bert Emanuel wasn’t a bad receiver in Atlanta, perhaps Shephard can follow in those footsteps.
  • Spencer Ware – You know I love me some Spencer Ware. Talent often has a funny way of rising to prominence – especially physical players like Ware.
  • Shaun Draughn – I’m not impressed with Knile Davis at all thus far. While Draughn hasn’t played as well as he did last year, I’d be surprised if he’s not part of the backfield picture and a prominent part if Jamal Charles can’t finish the year.
  • Chad Spann – Not much has been said about Spann after his first week in Jets camp. It’s hard to tell if he’ll earn a role, but I really haven’t seen enough of him in preseason to make a call on him.
  • Austin Collie – A terrific receiver when healthy, but I don’t know about the fit in San Francisco and there’s enough rust that he might need a team willing to be patient with him and that’s about has common as purple grizzly bears.
  • Julius Thomas – He continues to look good and might force his way into the Broncos’ lineup with a quarterback who isn’t shy about targeting open players regardless of their draft round, contract, or level of stardom.

Although he may seem like a waiver wire gem, I actually acquired Kenbrell Thompkins in the start-up auction. It’s early, but so far he has proven to be one of my more astute moves now he’s close to earning a starting role in New England. Truth be told, this is the type of move that normally doesn’t work out for me, but I just might have picked the right long shot this year.

Here’s my depth chart heading into the regular season:

  • QBs (start 1): Jay Cutler, Carson Palmer, and Sean Renfree
  • RBs (start 2): Steven Jackson, Arian Foster, Ben Tate, Ryan Williams, Shaun Draughn, Spencer Ware, Chad Spann, and C.J. Anderson
  • WRs (start 3-4): Calvin Johnson, DeSean Jackson, Cecil Shorts, Kenbrell Thompkins, Keenan Allen, Travis Benjamin, Marvin Jones, Marquess Wilson, Austin Collie, Russell Shephard, and Da’Rick Rogers
  • TEs (start 1-2): Vernon Davis, Dwayne Allen, Zach Sudfeld, and Luke Willson
  • DST: Seattle
  • PK: Sebastian Janikowski

Can’t say I love my team right now. Running back needs to stay healthy and I’m concerned about my lack of depth. I also have concerns about my kicker unless Terrelle Pryor can get into the lineup and at least scramble his way into field goal position enough times in games for respectable production. I think my receivers can carry me some weeks if my running backs can stay healthy and play like strong RB2s every week.

Until next month . . .

Ready to try a start-up keeper-contract-salary-auction league experience that’s easy to play and even easier to run? Go to Reality Sports Online and either start a league with your friends or join a league as an individual. You can earn a 20 percent discount when you use the promo code RSP20%OFF. 

 

Reads Listens Views 8/23/2013

0 Comments read Reads Listens Views
A.J. Green was the best receiver I ever saw at Georgia, but Marlon Brown is no slouch despite operating in Green's shadow. Photo by Wade Rackley
A.J. Green was the best receiver I ever saw at Georgia, but Marlon Brown is no slouch despite operating in Green’s shadow. Photo by Wade Rackley

Dynasty Alert: Baltimore WR Marlon Brown

If you were on Twitter last night, I lucked into a bit of a Nostradamus act. I saw former Georgia wide receiver Marlon Brown take the field and make his first reception and I promptly told my followers he was a player to monitor. I shared my thoughts about his high talent level and about 30-40 minutes later Brown made an excellent catch between two defensive backs on an intermediate cross for a touchdown. I was just glad to see that Brown was actually healthy enough to play this year after tearing his ACL late in the 2012 season.

If you don’t know who Brown is, I’m sharing my summary from the 2013 RSP.  Brown was my No.26 receiver, largely due to the timing of his injury and my concerns about him earning an opportunity at all this year. In fact, the Houston Texans were the first to sign Brown after the draft as a free agent then promptly dropped Brown from its roster with haste.

However, the Ravens were just as quick to sign Brown. I have looked for word about Brown from time to time this summer, but couldn’t find anything on him until I watched him tonight. If you’re in a deep dynasty league and you’re seeking players to stash on that practice squad, I recommend a flyer on the former Bulldog.

Here’s a summary from April:

Marlon Brown, (6-4, 213)

Brown’s quickness and cutting ability combined with his size makes him a physically dangerous player. The fact that he can play from the slot or get deep on the perimeter makes him a nice talent to watch after he recovers from a November ACL tear.

Brown does a good job working from the slot to find openings in the zone coverage. He does a good job working back to his QB and attacks the ball hard on his way back to the passer. He also demonstrates skill to make plays in the middle of the field on the move or with his back to the passer.

He also shows some skill to catch the ball at the first available window with his hands away from his body. He adjusts his breaks to maximize that space and he does a strong job after the catch of making cuts and keeping his pads low to avoid contact.

I like his strength and quickness – he can use a stiff arm effectively, bounces off hits, and he fights to get extra yards after he’s wrapped. Brown also showed smarts in the two-minute drill when it comes to saving his offense time with his on field awareness.

Brown needs to do a better job of delivering a punch as a blocker. He could get more aggressive on a consistent basis in the run game. There are times he seems to be tentative about his angles to the opponent. I also didn’t see him attempt a cut block.

As a receiver, he has the typical issue of most athletic players: he drops passes when he looks down field and tries to run before securing the ball. I didn’t get to see Brown execute hard breaks, face press coverage, or use his hands to get free against an opponent. However Brown is a good athlete and based on what I’ve seen him do I think he has the potential to become a good player in each of these facets of receiving.

A former five-star recruit, Brown’s spent half of his career in the shadow of A.J. Green, but is loved by his team and the coaching staff believes he has the ability to have an NFL career. Highlights below:

[youtube=http://youtu.be/BZbBl_CV8rk]

Thank You

Brown, Kenbrell Thompkins, Spencer Ware, Joique Bell, and even C.J. Anderson are examples of players I love to write about because evaluating college talent is a passion of mine and that love of studying prospects ranges from the known quantities to the guys off the radar – especially the lesser-known players. There are cynical people out there who believe evaluators like me tout unknown guys because it makes us look good without the impact of looking as bad when they fail.

I tout players I believe are good and have potential to be even better with a chance to develop in the NFL. It’s hard to list a player higher than established prospects when you know best-case he’ll be drafted late or not drafted at all. I don’t continue to talk about Cedric Peerman – even has an inside joke with my readers – because I think I’m going to look like a rookie-evaluating genius if he hits after years on the roster bubble in Cincinnati.

I have strong beliefs about players that don’t change much until I see enough evidence that counteracts the months of methodical attention to detail I spend documenting what I see. Sometimes it’s good (Russell Wilson), other times I fall flat on my face (John Beck), but all the time I’m learning and sharing what I learn, hopefully for your benefit.

So thank you for giving me the opportunity to continue this football journey. When you follow this blog and buy the Rookie Scouting Portfolio, you’re supporting my football education that comes back to you two-fold.

If you’re new to the blog, Friday is when I post links to content from around the web. I also thank you for visiting and encourage you to do yourself a favor and buy the 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio. This is a pre-draft and post-draft publication devoted to the rookies at the skill positions. Here’s information to learn more:

If you just need the basic facts, here they are: It’s the most comprehensive work you’ll find of its kind. You get over 1300 pages of material that’s well-organized and in-depth for $19.95 (past issues from 2006-2012 are $9.95). And 10 percent of each sale is donated to the organization Darkness to Light to help them fight sexual abuse.  You can download the RSP here.

Views

[youtube=http://youtu.be/YKF0X-cfQwY]

Football Reads

Non-Football Reads

  • Sonny Rollins, the Colossus – If I have to make a sports analogy, imagine an athlete with Bo Jackson’s physical skills, Michael Jordan’s drive, Brett Favre’s improvisational prowess at its most inspired, and Peyton Manning’s obsessive preparation and you only begin to grasp what this Kennedy Honor’s Recipient is all about. Seeing him in person in 2009 was a highlight of a lifetime. This performance below is the microscopic residue of a crumb of Rollins’ on stage with the horn in his hand, but it will have to do:

[youtube=http://youtu.be/A3SF5iq7iDQ]

Views II – Even If This is Part of The Corporate Machine, Bill Murray Would Be Proud

The last three minutes are worth the first four, I promise – and I work at their rival school. Imagine Stripes Meets Revenge of The Nerds.

[youtube=http://youtu.be/7Bfr__WhGJg]

2013 Fantasy Soundtracks

0 Comments read Walk on the Wild Side
Team Riddle selects Rob Gronkowski to lead off his draft. Photo by JDN.
Lamont Sanford to Sinead O’Connor? Keep reading… Photo by JDN.

Intro

Bloom and I not only grew up as the original members of the MTV Generation, but we were also the first audience of the summer movie blockbuster. From an early age it has been ingrained in us that music is a part of the story line of our lives. If you’re one of us who remembers things like Poison Arrow, Fish Heads, Headbanger’s Ball, and Martha’s Muffin, then you also remember making mixed tapes for your friends – especially girlfriends.

I was a musician in a previous life. In college I used to watch Raiders’ games with my roommate’s synthesizer at the edge of the couch so I could play sound effects of bombs dropping whenever James Jett went deep:

[youtube=http://youtu.be/y6EU_l06GwM]

Bloom lived a soundtrack as a Phishhead. Put the two of us together and it’s only a matter of time before we have to inject music into the football conversation. It only made sense that our 2013 season preview would be a soundtrack and mixed tape set to YouTube videos.

However, Einstein is the only video you’re going to see on this post due to account rights with YouTube that prevent us from embedding music here. Still, we’re providing links to each song and they will open in a separate window so you can have a soundtrack as you read our takes on players and their outlook for the year. This is us blowing off steam with two mixed tapes.

Album I, Side A: “It’s always Tease, Tease, Tease” [The Clash]

Should I stay or should I go now? . . . Should I stay or should I go now? . . . If I go there will be trouble . . . An if I stay it will be double . . . Come on and let me know . . . Should I cool it or should I blow?

Who better than the Clash to sum up the angst fantasy owners feel about so many players? They draw us in with talent so seductive and intoxicating that we stick around even after getting burned. Yet even as the logic of giving them another try wears thin, the promise of “what could be” is almost too great to resist – even when you know better.

It seems you always find yourself staring at their name on draft day and wishing you knew what to do. Bloom and I would love to intervene, but we’re too busy exorcising our own player-demons or giving it one more chance with the hope we’re not crying in our beer in December.

(Bloom) Track 1: QB Josh Freeman – My Minds Got a Mind Of Its Own  [phish]

Maybe it’s his mechanics. Maybe it’s that he was in a new system. Maybe it’s his unwillingness to rely on his legs as often as he did earlier in his career. Or, maybe Josh Freeman is just as baffled by his inconsistent play as we are. His mind prompts him to make throws that are incomprehensible. Last year, he looked like a QB1 until he cratered with eight interceptions in the all-important weeks 15 and 16. Think twice before you add Freeman this year.

(Waldman) Track 2: RB Maurice Jones-Drew –  We Had Joy, We had Fun . . .  [terry Jacks]

He was a huge reason I won my first experts’ league. Using a Studs and Duds strategy, winning Jones-Drew’s services for a mere $1 was the bargain of all bargains. Watching him duel with Chris Johnson a few years ago was one of the most fun showcases of two running backs in a game that I have ever seen. The Jaguars’ little teapot has been an RB1 for most of his seven-year career and a cornerstone for many fantasy champions. Despite averaging at least 4.7 yards per carry the past two seasons, the familiar tug to get on board the S.S. Jones-Drew is there but my feet won’t leave the dock – even at a bargain price as the 23rd pick/RB15.

But he has taken a pounding and without a proven quarterback to keep defenses from crowding the line of scrimmage and daring the Jaguars to throw, I’d rather be a year too early than a year too late. Terry Jacks says it best: “Good-bye my friend it’s hard to die when all the birds are singing in the sky . . . but the hills that we climbed were just seasons out of time.”

(Bloom) Track 3: RB Darren McFadden – Won’t Get Fooled Again [The who]

Keep your “contract year” and “zone blocking scheme was holding him back” arguments. Oakland’s offense looks like a dumpster-fire without left tackle Jared Veldheer for a good part of the season. Matt Flynn is a backup quarterback and Terrelle Pryor isn’t even a backup-quality passer. Even if McFadden had a spotless durability record, it would be tough to like him this year.

(Waldman) Track 4: RB Ryan Mathews – Cold Shot [Stevie Ray Vaughan]

Mathews isn’t just singing this song to fantasy owners; he’s belting the lyrics to a standing room only audience in his locker room. The Fresno State runner is a borderline rare talent. If you’ve truly seen Mathews at his best then you know what I mean: exploits small creases, makes adroit cuts that kill defenders’ angles, a third gear to outrun corners, and rare balance against hits from first-level defenders.  It’s one thing to lower the pads and truck a defender straight-on; it’s a completely different story when a defensive lineman with a good angle and plenty of steam gets his pads into the side of a running back’s thigh and slides off like butter on a hot skillet tilted sideways.

I saw Mathews do this enough times that I thought I was in this fantasy football relationship for the long haul. But the rare skills couched in boneheaded acts of immaturity has reached the point that I can’t make any more excuses. It doesn’t help that Danny Woodhead (DANNY WOODHEAD?!!!) is the player the Chargers are relying on as much as Mathews. It shows just how far this once-promising fantasy situation has gone down the tubes.

Mathews says his NFL career to this point as merely been “average” and while I like the attempt at honesty, the fact that he can’t bring himself to say his career has been below average to his first-round expectations tells me that he’s still in denial about not only what he has done, but he truly doesn’t realize how good he can be. If he doesn’t believe in himself, then how can I?

I still want to believe because I see glimpses every week he plays. But by game’s end, watching him is a cold shot.

(Bloom) Mathews Alternate take:  It Ain’t No Use [Stevie Wonder]

Mathews may be looking good in camp and the preseason, but it ain’t no use. I’m done – at least while he’s running behind maybe the worst offensive line in the league. The new regime doesn’t have the draft pick or emotional investment in Mathews and you shouldn’t, either. I’m not saying that Mathews won’t have some big plays and games, but he’ll also frustrate with injuries and lost games as the Chargers struggle.

Read the rest at Footballguys

Eddie Lacy and Why I Prefer Talent Over Situation

0 Comments read 2013 NFL Draft, Walk on the Wild Side
I prefer evaluating talent to ranking players. There's a difference. Photo by Mike Pettigano.
Eddie Lacy is an example why I prefer evaluating talent to ranking players. There’s a difference. Photo by Mike Pettigano.

Eddie Lacy was my top back in the 2013 class before the NFL Draft. After the draft, I dropped him to fourth in behind Giovani Bernard, Le’Veon Bell, and Marcus Lattimore. Why? The three factors that we learned that caused NFL teams to drop him on their draft boards:

  1. Lacy was so out of shape in pre-draft workouts that he had to cut the workouts short.
  2. Concern about Lacy’s toe injury caused the Broncos and Steelers pick another option despite their need for a lead back.
  3. Concern that Lacy’s personality – which isn’t all-football, all the time – meant he didn’t have the emotional makeup of a good football player.

When I downgraded Lacy in my post-draft publication, I only knew about the first two concerns. If I knew about the third one I would have ignored it because it’s ridiculous. More on that one later.

As a football talent evaluator, I dislike post-draft rankings. I understand their value, but I’m a talent purist at heart. I prefer to examine what a player can do; what he can’t; and project what he might be able to learn. Character, situation, and injury are factors that more often than not require an investigator, a coach, and a doctor to discuss with any level of expertise and even then there’s a lot of speculation.

Unless I was with a team and creating a real draft board, I have little use for the non-football stuff. It’s water-cooler talk.

Headlining the virtual break room was infamous camp photo of Lacy where he looked more like B.J. Raji wearing a running back jersey number and wig as a prank. I thought we were going to need to add a photography expert to the mix of the collective medical and psychological speculation about things that have little to do with his on-field performance.

As a fan and a fantasy owner, it was five minutes of compelling information to consider. I was sucked in. As an author of a publication that evaluates talent from a long-term standpoint, I was glad it went away as fast as it arrived.

These non-football factors are also why the idea of people ranking talent analysts is problematic at best. Does one judge a talent evaluator by his ranking of the player or by the commentary? I think the substance of the analysis is far more important than the number. If you think I’m a good or bad evaluator because of the accuracy of rankings that have more more dynamics than annual re-draft rankings in fantasy football, then you’re missing value of what those in the profession of football evaluation provide to readers.

Lacy is one of many examples why I think the pre-draft RSP remains as valuable as the post-draft publication. The pre-draft publication is about talent. The post-draft incorporates fit and to a lesser extent draft stock. Like it or not, a player’s draft grade often dictates his initial opportunity.

And because the NFL is a hyper-competitive environment with high turnover due to age and injury, it’s understandable why most media and fans have a “what have you done for me lately” philosophy embedded within their takes on player potential. Even if it’s often the wrong perspective to have.

The concern about Lacy’s toe injury was based on surgery prior to his 2012 season. From what I saw, it didn’t stop Lacy from tearing holes through college defenses. True, it’s a possibility that Lacy hurts the toe again and is never the same player and he may have a shorter career span than Montee Ball, but if the speculation is that Lacy only plays three years to Ball’s five I’d prefer the better player over a shorter period of time.

Even if that player burns out his body sooner, management is making that player’s position a stronger priority in the off-season.

The issue that troubles me most about these takes that emerged after the draft about Lacy. The idea that teams passed on Lacy because running back doesn’t love football and teams were concerned about his work ethic or mental toughness. I’d be shocked if even 10 percent of the true decision makers involved with passing on Lacy have ever experienced a remote amount of hardship that he has.

Try losing everything you own after a hurricane strikes your town. Do you think you’d struggle with the trauma of starting over? Moving to a new city with nothing? Living with people you didn’t know in conditions that are far from luxury? If you think eight years is a long time to still be dealing with it all then odds are likely you need to get back to me 10-15 years after you can walk into a bar and order a drink. Then we can having a meaningful conversation.

Football wouldn’t be the first thing on my mind. Nor would it make me happy in light of these events. An outlet for my frustration and anger? Oh yeah. Happiness? You’ve got to be kidding me.

Some people say you have to love football with a passion to perform at the highest level. I agree it’s the easiest way to tell that a person is going to do the hard work to succeed. It’s just not the only way. If you want to live by the probabilities of templates, formulas, and prototypes then you’ll be right more often than you’re wrong. But you’ll also miss a lot of exceptional cases that make a true difference in shaping how we look at the world.

As a talent purist, Lacy’s skill excites me, but I dreaded having to use non-football events to rank him.  Fast forward to Lacy’s performance this weekend and many of these concerns were sliding off him like Rams defenders. He looked like Marion Motley with a spin move. Whether or not he has a successful career, I’m happy that in a few weeks most of the speculation about Lacy (and many other prospects) will reach the beginning of the end on the field of play.

For analysis of skill players in this year’s draft class, download the 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio available now. Better yet, if you’re a fantasy owner the 56-page Post-Draft Add-on comes with the 2013 RSP at no additional charge and available for download within a week after the NFL Draft. Best, yet, 10 percent of every sale is donated to Darkness to Light to combat sexual abuse. You can purchase past editions of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio for just $9.95 apiece.

RSP Flashback: Cardinals WR Andre Roberts

0 Comments read 2011 NFL Draft, Players, Wide Receiver
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Roberts will also benefit from Bruce Arians moving Larry Fitzgerald around. See why he should be a worthwhile patience play for the Cardinals.

The 2010 rookie class of wide receivers was a minefield for draft analysts. The strength of the class lay in its collective athleticism. For every Dez Bryant and Demaryius Thomas who have developed into play-makers there are the likes of Arrelious Benn, Carlton Mitchell, David Gettis, and Marcus Easley – eye-catching athletes who have struggled to integrate the skills of the position into their game.  Or in Danario Alexander’s case, stay healthy.

Yet there was a contingent of receivers who had average physical dimensions for the professional game, but their skills as receivers were the most promising aspect of their collective resumes. While there’s a school of thought that you can’t teach athleticism, I’m beginning to think that truism is relied upon too much. The downside of this is these players get drafted early, they need more development than they are often capable of absorbing at this level, and teams are more patient with them to “have the light come on.”

After a decade of study, I think teams need to spend more time looking at players who already know how to turn on the switch. I call this behavior a display of Integrated Skill Sets.
And I believe there should be a more qualitative effort to study them:

  • What are they for the position?
  • What’s difficult to learn about the position at the pro level?
  • Does the player know how to incorporate his athleticism into position’s technical demands?
  • Does the process what’s happening around him well enough to optimize his athleticism and skill?
  • What behaviors can help us more  project a player’s ability to integrate the demands of the pro game?

The players in this 2010 class who demonstrated the strongest display of Integrated Skill Sets that I didn’t mention were Golden Tate, Eric Decker, Emmanuel Sanders, Riley Cooper, Blair White, and Andre Roberts.  While White had a short-lived career, he’s an important player to mention because I think the one thing that the Colts player-personnel department did a fine job of identifying was players with Integrated Skill Sets.

I don’t know if they have anything defined as such when watching players, but even their misses were players who demonstrated a good feel for the game. White wasn’t inordinately big or fast, but he knew how to get open, read the field and opponents well, and he could make plays that required a combination of technique, spatial awareness in tight quarters, and physical toughness.  If you recall White’s first touchdown was the result of jogging to the Colts huddle and telling Manning what he saw the corner cheating on previous plays.

Ironically, many football people believe that you can’t teach athleticism, but I’m beginning to wonder if you can teach smarts, precision, and awareness in football players if they don’t have it by the time they reach the NFL. At the day gig, I’m doing a story on one of the oldest and most prestigious specialty academic graduate programs of its kind that teaches a specific set of skills that has so much value to the corporate world, I’ve had numerous MBA graduates tell me that if they knew this program existed they would have pursued it instead.

The reason is that employers are practically waiting in line to hire these graduates. But ask these employers what they want to see more with this training and it’s the graduate’s ability to integrate all of the skills they’ve learned and make decisions that change the business for the better. They want the school to teach things that can’t be taught (inspired and reinforced, maybe): intelligence, curiosity, and experience.

The NFL’s job market has its parallels. It takes a certain type of talent to be a good receiver for Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, Drew Brees, or Matt Ryan. Elite physical skills can get you onto the field, but look at the players who most consistently move the chains in tough situations and the guys they’re leaning on display intelligence, curiosity, and awareness in their game. Say what you will about Randy Moss’ effort or personality, but Bill Belichick called him the smartest receiver he’s coached.

Andre Roberts is no Randy Moss when it comes to his athletic gifts, but he was my fifth-ranked receiver in 2010 and one of my favorites in this class. The 5’11”, 195-pound Roberts was on my short list of receivers most likely candidate to make an immediate impact. However, Roberts had so many uncharacteristic drops in camp that his rookie year was unfruitful.

This slow start only reinforces my view that NFL teams would be served well to look at integrated skill sets, because by the end of his second season Roberts’ quarterbacks and coaching staff believed he demonstrated enough to develop into a star in the slot. The hope is that the acquisition of Michael Floyd would eventually allow the Cardinals to use Roberts as a receiver who they can move around to take advantage of his skills.

The 2013 camp story line may be about coach Bruce Arians moving Fitzgerald around like Reggie Wayne, but think of Roberts as Arians’ new T.Y Hilton. Remember, if you move one receiver, you’re likely moving another. Hilton also benefited from getting moved around the formation. Roberts isn’t as fast as Hilton, but I compared him favorably to Greg Jennings.

Roberts is a small-school prospect with big-time game. He has great body control to make catches of errant throws, runs routes anywhere on the field, and has strong skills after the catch. He’s a versatile player and had one of the best punt returns I have seen in a couple of years. He can weave through traffic, set up blocks, and make strong cuts. What I really like his skill to defeat the jam on a consistent basis. I have seen projections from others that believe Roberts will be a slot receiver. I agree with those that say he will start his career there, but I would like to point out that Greg Jennings has nearly identical dimensions as Roberts. I think Roberts might be a better player than Jennings was at this stage of their careers. If Roberts joins a team with a veteran quarterback, he’ll be a candidate to make an immediate impact in 2010.

Roberts has lacked an established veteran for most of his career, but he continues to flash skills that I think a quarterback of Carson Palmer has the ability to fully exploit this year. Here is my 2010 report on Andre Roberts. While the jury is still out on him becoming consistent, productive starter, I think he’s a lot closer than many of his more athletically-inclined classmates and the reason is his flash of integrated skill sets.

For analysis of skill players in this year’s draft class, download the 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio available now. Better yet, if you’re a fantasy owner the 56-page Post-Draft Add-on comes with the 2013 RSP at no additional charge and available for download within a week after the NFL Draft. Best, yet, 10 percent of every sale is donated to Darkness to Light to combat sexual abuse. You can purchase past editions of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio for just $9.95 apiece.