Posts tagged Rookie Scouting Portfolio

Reads Listens Views 8/16/2013

0 Comments read Reads Listens Views

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The Rookie Scouting Portfolio blog has gained enough of a following that I’ve learned there are folks who come here and don’t realize that – oh by the way –  I also write for Footballguys.com. If you play fantasy football and you haven’t checked out our draft app, you can see more from Cory Jones at Mandatory.com.

Thanks

My summer schedule has been whack since . . . well, spring. I have a final push of Footballguys.com assignments I want to finish this weekend and next and you’ll begin to see more substantive football content about the 2014 college class, goings-on in the NFL, and perhaps more experiments with podcasts.

If you’re new to the blog, Friday is when I post links to content from around the web. I also thank you for visiting and encourage you to do yourself a favor and buy the 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio. This is a pre-draft and post-draft publication devoted to the rookies at the skill positions. Here’s information to learn more:

If you just need the basic facts, here they are: It’s the most comprehensive work you’ll find of its kind. You get over 1300 pages of material that’s well-organized and in-depth for $19.95 (past issues from 2006-2012 are $9.95). And 10 percent of each sale is donated to the organization Darkness to Light to help them fight sexual abuse.  You can download the RSP here.

Random Football Thoughts

  • I’m not concerned about Josh Gordon. He makes football look easy. He always has. It’s a quality that I remember seeing from Randy Moss. I will gladly take Gordon in fantasy drafts and wait three weeks for him to return.  
  • Broncos running back C.J. Anderson, an undrafted rookie free agent from Cal, injured his knee just as he was earning second-team reps in practice and will miss six weeks. Anderson has the ability to develop into a contributor in a starting lineup. He’s excellent at making the first defender miss, has quick feet, and finishes strong. This injury may ruin his momentum to cut into Montee Ball’s reps, but I think he makes the team and if he keeps working at his craft I wouldn’t be surprised if he clouds the Broncos’ running back picture in 2014.
  • Bears rookie lineman Kyle Long looked terrific against the Chargers. He and Jermon Bushrod are two big reasons why I continue to be bullish on Matt Forte this year.
  • About three months ago I was on the Thursday Night Audible talking about players to watch during the preseason who you won’t normally see when the regular season begins. One of the players I mentioned – over the “don’t do it” chants from Bloom and Lammey – was Falcons tight end Chase Coffman. All three of us like Coffman at Missouri but at the time the Bengals drafted him, Coffman was gangling athlete. However, last year I got to see Coffman on the field in Atlanta and he looked to have gained enough muscle that he was able to move around the field with a level of athletic grace I had not seen from him before. He looked like a different player in this respect. What was the same was his excellent hands and skill in zone coverage. Remember Coffman this year, because he has earned his share of first-team reps in the preseason and has looked solid. If Tony Gonzalez gets hurt, Coffman has the hands to contribute as a zone receiver. Fantasy owners, think Dennis Pitta in style but not the high-end production.

Listens 

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Stevie Ray Vaughan used to sit in with Albert King as a kid and if you couldn’t tell by King’s playing, Vaughan cited King as a major influence.

Football Reads

Views

I saved this for over a week. Since then, my friend Joe Bryant posted it on his blog, but it’s such an important thing to watch that I’m hoping I catch some of you who saw it, but didn’t bother to look.  As someone whose care was rear-ended four times in one month and at least two of them were clearly due to people texting, I urge you to watch.

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Listens II – Tinariwen

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You can hear the blues in this, too.

Non-Football Reads

Views II

[youtube=http://youtu.be/zuBSRC1zpHw]

I like this video because in less than five minutes, Kutcher does his best to be real about work, pop culture, and self-worth.

2013 RSP Excerpt and Sample: Seattle RB Christine Michael

0 Comments read 2014 NFL Draft, Players, Running Back
Is Michael this class' Ben Tate with more talent? Photo by SD Dirk.
Is Michael this class’ Ben Tate with more talent? Photo by SD Dirk.

I heard a TV commentator compare Michael to Ahman Green and attribute that comparison to former A&M coach Mike Sherman. The comparison is dead-on.

Michael has a strong burst, good finishing strength, nice pad level, and quick feet to make sharp cuts. I think he flashes some skill at the cutback while still having the maturity to take what his blockers give him – even when the creases are small.

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l52K5QZ2OEw?start=27&w=560&h=315]

Note the pad level and strength on this run above. There are three different angles to view it (ends at 0:46).  I love how hard he hits the crease and this combination of speed and pad level makes him scary to bring down at the second level, because he’ll bounce off hits or use his array of moves in combination to turn a 10-yard gain into a 50-yard jaunt.

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LCVqxFeWFoU?start=177&w=560&h=315]

The lateral cut Michael executes at the left hash after telling the linebacker a bedtime story that featured his stiff arm four yards earlier is a thing of beauty. Moreover, the speed to cross the opposite hash and outrun a fine angle by the defender back to score on this play is a great display of speed and stamina to turn on the afterburners. He did a fair bit of work early in the play and still had the gas to cross the field and outrun two angles for a long score. Impressive stuff.

I have no doubt that Michael has the physical skills to be a lead back in a pro offense and a terrific one at that.

Like Green, Michael generally carries the ball under the same arm on running plays regardless of his position on the field – his right. He sometimes tries too hard in the open field to make that extra cut or move to avoid down-field defenders rather than maintain a straight path and finish strong. He loses more yards with some of these decisions than he would if he forced the defender to bring him down while he was at full speed.

At the same time, I have seen Michael look great in the open field against Arkansas, Mississippi, and Auburn. he doesn’t always run with his eyes as much as he should and this reduces his effectiveness because he’s not setting up moves as much as he’s focusing on one move at a time.

A real positive about Michael’s game is his pass protection. He keeps his head up and uses his hands well enough to punch defenders. He gets good position before delivering blocks and he flashed good skill both in stand up and cut blocking. He’s also a reliable receiver on short routes, catching the ball with his hands, and he can catch targets with his back to the quarterback. He’ll have the occasional lapse of patience where he has to be more cognizant of looking the ball into his body.

Injuries have been an issue. Michael has broken a leg and torn an ACL in consecutive years. He was had lapses of discipline as a teammate.

The maturity issue was considered Micheal’s greatest stumbling block before the draft. The A&M runner put on a show at the combine with a 4.54, 40-yard dash; an incredible 4.02, 20-yard shuttle; and a somewhat mind-blowing 6.69-second, three-cone drill. All he had to do after this display was to show up to the team interviews and say that his past mistakes were nothing but youthful immaturity.

He could throw in that he’s learning how to become a better teammate and reliable adult and that he understands the NFL is an opportunity of a lifetime and he’d be a lock for the third round. Instead, Michael overslept and missed his interviews.

However, post-draft interviews with Michael depict a young man who displays far more maturity and poise than how some in the media depicted him at college. Michael says he missed the interviews because he was ill during the combine and after working out the symptoms were bad enough that he was wiped out that night and next morning.

Based on my limited information about Michael’s behavior I characterized him as a player who can run over, around, or away from just about anyone on a football field, but was having a lot of trouble winning the internal battle. I’m not so sure the losers in this evaluation of Michael’s character weren’t those of us who didn’t know anything more than what the media reported. At the same time, I’m not completely convinced his past behavior was all something the media blew out of proportion. If he can regain his pre-injury form and continue to show evidence of mature (enough) behavior he can be the best back in this class.

My sample play-by-play reports on Christine Michael. 

Fantasy draft coming up? Download the 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio available now. Better yet, if you’re a fantasy owner the 56-page Post-Draft Add-on comes with the 2013 RSP at no additional charge and available for download within a week after the NFL Draft. Best, yet, 10 percent of every sale is donated to Darkness to Light to combat sexual abuse. You can purchase past editions of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio for just $9.95 apiece.

Reads Listens Views 8/9/2013

0 Comments read Reads Listens Views
If you think of me when you see these three players - among others - you don't need me to say any more. If you don't, perhaps its time to starting downloading the RSP publication every April 1.
If you think of me when you see these three players – among others – you don’t need me to say any more. If you don’t, perhaps its time to starting downloading the RSP publication every April 1.

If you’re new to the Rookie Scouting Portfolio Blog, Friday posts are titled “Reads Listens Views” and in addition today’s commentary on 10 third and fourth-year players I’m monitoring in training camp, I’m featuring links to content from colleagues, non-football stories, photos, videos, lectures, and music that interest me. You may not like everything you see here, but you will like at least one thing. It’s also my opportunity to thank you for visiting and convince you to download the Rookie Scouting Portfolio publication.

Listens – RIP George Duke (Pianist/Composer/Producer)

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Thanks

This thing we got going here is a mutual deal. Thank you for following my blog, my tweets, reading my work at Footballguys and Football Outsiders, and buying the Rookie Scouting Portfolio. In return I do my best to give you stuff to read that helps you become a more informed football fan, makes you see something with a new perspective, or at least makes you laugh. If you haven’t bought the Rookie Scouting Portfolio before you need to know that according to my readers, I’m the rare bird who is giving you something that far exceeds its cost to you.

The depth of what I write about any subject here is the tip of the iceberg for the two publications (pre-draft and post-draft) that you get for just $19.95:

  • Over 1300 pages of 179 skill position prospects.
  • Play-by-play notes of each game I study.
  • Position rankings.
  • Rankings by individual skill sets at each position.
  • Assessment of skills that are easy/difficult to learn.
  • Fantasy landscape analysis for each position.
  • Overall rankings with tiers and draft value metrics post-draft.
  • Overrated, Underrated, and Projects.
  • Defined criteria shown for all my scouting reports.

This report is based on my perception of talent, potential fit, long-term development first and then draft stock as a slight factor due to opportunities it affords/prevents as opposed to the other way around. The book outlines my process so you can get better at studying these positions regardless of the accuracy of my assessments on players.

At the same time, I’m still here after 8 years of writing this publication and asked to write for others because my process has helped me have strong takes on players who were often seen as exceptions to the rule like Maurice Jones-Drew, Ahmad Bradshaw, Russell Wilson, Austin Collie, Dennis Pitta, and Ray Rice while also cautioning people about the extreme love for the likes of a Matt Leinart, Robert Meachem, Darren McFadden, and Craig Davis. I have my misses – Demaryius Thomas, John Beck, Bruce Gradkowski, and Will Yeatman are examples – but my process helps me learn. Even when my ranking isn’t sky-high on an unknown-turned-starter like Alfred Morris – my assessment of that player’s skills give you an idea of what he can do if given a shot.

Not many had Kenbrell Thompkins rated as high as the 15th receiver and were writing about him in February. Many scoffed at the idea that Russell Wilson compared favorably to Drew Brees, but I was showing how that could be the case before the 2012 NFL Draft.

I know it doesn’t seem like it, but I don’t like self-promotion. However, I have to do it. Fortunately what I do like telling you is that 10 percent of each RSP purchase is donated to Darkness to Light, a charitable organization devoted to sexual abuse prevention training. Downloading the Rookie Scouting Portfolio is a win-win-win.

Friday Commentary: 10 Third/Fourth-Year Players I’m Monitoring In Training Camp

These players are in no particular order, but here’s why I’m interested in monitoring their progress – and so should you.

Spann JetsII
Spann has impressed thus far. How he does in preseason games could make a huge difference with his NFL future.

Running Back Chad Spann, Jets: Spann is a friend of this blog since I took a shine to his game when he led college football in touchdowns as a senior at Northern Illinois (Cam Newton was No.2). I’m personally a fan of Spann now that I’ve gotten to know him a little bit, but I’ve been persistent about talking about him for the past three years because first and foremost I believe he has the talent to contribute in and NFL lineup. He was a top-five runner on my pre-draft board in 2011 because he made strong decisions, demonstrated good balance, and his burst, and skill after contact all were stylistic reminders of backs like Ray Rice and Ahmad Bradshaw.

Spann is one of many players who has had rough luck early on because his opportunities to contribute were small and a late preseason injury with the Colts, a revolving door at the Bucs’ organization, and a new coordinator in Pittsburgh all foiled the runner’s chance to parlay his good practice/preseason play into a real opportunity. But Spann has continued working and is making good with the Jets as he heads into the first week of the preseason. With Chris Ivory’s health history, Mike Goodson’s troubles, and Bilal Powell the only effective veteran option practicing, Spann’s pass protection, receiving skill, and burst has caught the team’s eye.

While I’m fine with admitting I missed on a player like Knowhson Moreno, if you believe in someone’s skill, you continue to tout them even if they aren’t getting the chance to prove it. Bengals running back Cedric Peerman is one of those players where I’ve seen nothing to disprove my believe that he can be a starter in the NFL. The fact that Jay Gruden told reporters last year that “we didn’t know what we had” in Peerman as a running back after three years he was on the roster, only validates my notion that the Bengals have pegged him as a special teams guy and don’t care to see anything more unless forced to do so. Spann is also one of these players I’ll have to see something different from what I studied to believe he can’t produce as a pro.

Running Back Bilal Powell, Jets: Powell is another interesting case for me. I also had Powell ranked higher than most in the 2011 NFL Draft. While he’s made incremental improvement each year, he failed to make an instant impact. Whether this is because he’s not as talented a runner as I initially thought or the Jets line play and distribution of carries has prevented Powell from truly demonstrating his potential remains to be seen. With Ivory, Goodson, and McKnight missing in action, we’re going to get a better look in the preseason.

Powell is more physical than his size indicates and he’s a volume runner who sets up defenders over the course of several runs. This is why I think the carry distribution under Tony Sparano didn’t maximize Powell’s potential. The Jets are the preseason favorite to be in the Jadeveon Clowney Sweepstakes (the first pick of the 2013 NFL Draft), which has a lot of us wondering just how effective the offense can be for any skill talent. Still, we’ve seen New York improve its run game last year despite tough circumstances so Powell and Spann or worth monitoring.

Is this the year McCluster gets a shot to maximize his skill set? Photo by Tennessee Journalist Wade Rackley.
Is this the year McCluster gets a shot to maximize his skill set? Photo by Tennessee Journalist Wade Rackley.

Offensive Weapons Dexter McCluster, Chiefs and James Casey, Eagles: I thought McCluster would be Tavon Austin before Austin’s arrival in the NFL the way I thought James Casey would be Aaron Hernandez before Hernandez’s arrival in the NFL. In fact, I think McCluster was a far more natural running back than Austin and illustrated it with greater frequency in a less diverse offensive scheme than Austin. However, McCluster went to a Chiefs’ offense where there appeared to be a disconnect between those who drafted the Ole Miss star and how to maximize his talent.

The same could be said of Casey, who once riddled the Saints (see link above) as a receiver, but earned very few opportunities of this magnitude since. Both players have also dealt with injuries and position changes (and flip-flops). This year they seem to be in organizations with coaches and offenses that will maximize their versatility. I’m excited to see how this plays out this month because McCluster has a shot to be a terrific slot option opposite the talents of Travis Kelce at tight end and Casey should have a lot of room underneath and also win mismatches with linebackers on deeper routes when given the green light in Chip Kelley’s offense. Both could earn enough receptions this year (50+) to be among the top 2-3 options in their respective offenses.

Wide Receiver Torrey Smith, Ravens: I love Smith’s speed and skill at winning the ball on deep routes in tight coverage. What remains to be seen is if he can take his game to the level of another speedy receiver with the same last name: Jimmy Smith. Although the Jaguars’ legend has 10 pounds on the Ravens third-year wide out, both players shared similarities in their games early in their careers.

The Ravens’ Smith needs to prove he can not only produce at a high level as the primary weapon, but with out Anquan Boldin and Dennis Pitta making life easier for him. This may mean more intermediate routes in the middle of the field than what I’ve seen in the past. If he can do it, the Ravens will have the offense to stay in games against quality opponents.

Now he knows how to throw the football - or at least knows about the technique.
Now he knows how to throw the football – or at least knows about the technique.

Quarterback Terrelle Pryor, Raiders: When Pryor first entered the NFL, I cautioned fans to remove the beer goggles. Pryor admitted this summer that he didn’t know how to throw the ball when he arrived in Oakland and camp reports indicate he has improved his mechanics. One thing he can do is run.

If Matt Flynn fails to hold this offense together, the Raiders might decide a heavier dose of read-option featuring Pryor and Darren McFadden is a worthwhile stop-gap. I’m curious to see just how much Pryor has improved. The fact that Oakland has red zone packages for him is a positive sign – even if it’s not a glowing endorsement.

Wide Receiver Vincent Brown, Chargers: Not much to say about him that I haven’t here. I think he could be the most underrated producer heading into the 2013 season due to talent, situation, and injury to Danario Alexander. Think Reggie Wayne production from 2012.

Running Backs Joique Bell and Mikel Leshoure, Lions: Leshoure says his burst is back after a hamstring injury that hindered him last year since Week 3. Bell has done enough with his opportunities for Jim Schwartz to say this spring that the former UDFA has forced his way onto the field with his production and work ethic.

Leshoure and Bell are the classic example of the safe, big-school athlete with all the measurements that personnel executives can tick on their balance sheets before issuing a sizable initial investment and a small-school player with dime-a-dozen athleticism in t-shirt and shorts, but notable skill when the pads come on.

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Scouts have a saying about college athletes that I’ll paraphrase: The number of stars next to a recruit’s rating can be equated to the number of garages he had on his house. The more garages, the more entitled, the more likely he succumbs to the scent of his press clippings and underwhelms. Likewise, the fewer the garages, the harder the recruit works for everything he wants.

It’s a generalization that sometimes fits college players. I don’t think it fits as well in the pros, but I have to believe there is some element of that at play with individual cases. Was Leshoure one of those five-garage players now looking up at a one-garage guy in Bell? We may find out, because I fear Leshoure might be looking for a new team by 2014 if he does flash 2011 expectations in 2013. Follow?

Jake Locker finally makes an appearance on an RSP Writers Project squad. Zach Bahner values Locker for his versatility, a characteristic that Bahner aims to cultivate with the rest of his team. Photo by NeonTommy.
Jake Locker is the lynch pin to the success or failure of this Titans regime Photo by NeonTommy.

Quarterback Jake Locker, Titans: The weaponry at wide receiver is promising, but every one of these talents has a question mark. Justin Hunter could be the most talented receiver in the draft, but even the camp reports are focused on “toughening him up,” and that’s not a good sign for a player with a history of sloppy habits. Kenny Britt appears to be maturing and preparing with the fervor of a professional for a change. It’s the first year I’m optimistic about him, but his quarterback is another story.

Locker has always been a reckless player. You love that at key moments, but only when he gets off the ground and trots back to the huddle unscathed. Combine this issue with his accuracy and there’s enough concern that he’ll never take the steps to become a productive NFL starter. This will be a pivotal year for the coaching staff and I think the future of this organization hangs in the balance with Locker’s performance.

Football Reads

Steve Smith is so good, you don't even need to qualify with "pound-for-pound" Photo by PDA Photo
Steve Smith is so good you don’t even need to qualify with “pound-for-pound.” Photo by PDA Photo

Views: Great White Shark Even Tries to Flush Afterwards

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Listens:

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Non-Football Reads

Views

Bill Moyers’ Series: Distracted From Democracy: I haven’t seen it yet, but looking forward to taking the time to watch.

Second-Year Players I’m Monitoring in August

0 Comments read Matt Waldman
Stuart is willing to give LaMichael James a shot to earn the starting job with his RSP Writers team. Photo by Neon Tommy.
I loved watching James at Oregon and he’s worth monitoring as a second-year player with the 49ers. See who else I’m watching closely for a variety of reasons. Photo by Neon Tommy.

What have you done for me lately? It’s an underlying mantra of performance-based industry. Of course there is the concept of earning equity on past performance. Peyton Manning built enough equity in his career that a career-threatening neck injury didn’t prevent at least three teams to engage in a high-stakes bidding war for his services.

Draft picks often earn a little equity because NFL teams are paying them a salary that influences these organizations to show a little patience. Still, it’s a small increment of time. Teams expect second-year players to make a significant improvement with their play or Year Three is a “get good or get going” scenario.

Earlier this week I wrote about 10 rookie offensive players and players that I’m monitoring during the preseason. This post is a series of short profiles of 10 offensive players entering Year Two who I’ll be monitoring with interest.

Tight End/Fullback Evan Rodriguez, Dolphins: Rodriguez has the skills to become a productive H-Back in the NFL. He’s a physical player with good skills after the catch and the speed to threaten the seam. The Bears drafted the Temple product last year and 14 months later the team waived its fourth-round pick after two arrests (DUI and disorderly conduct) during the off season. Rodriguez has a golden opportunity to earn a spot on the depth chart and learn from Dustin Keller, a receiver with similar dimensions who has more polish and professionalism, but lacks Rodriguez’s rough and tumble style. If the second-year prospect figures out that Miami is a chance for a career rebirth and not a grave yard disguised as a party, he could give the Dolphins enormous flexibility as a player who can move around the offensive formation and help Ryan Tannehill dictate the defensive scheme before the snap. I’m monitoring Rodriguez to see if he can mature and commit himself to being a professional.  If so, he has the football acumen to develop into a player like Chris Cooley, who was an H-Back earning 50-70 catches 700-plus-yards, and 6-8 touchdowns between 2005-2007.

Wide Receiver Rod Streater, Raiders: The second of three skill players who were rookies from Temple last year (Bernard Pierce was the third), Streater surprised NFL fans in 2012 when the undrafted free agent walked into Raiders’ camp and earned a significant role in the Oakland offense, gaining nearly 600 yards and averaging 15 yards per catch. I liked Streater’s speed, skill to set up breaks, and use of his hands against press.  Even after last year’s success I still have questions about Streater’s ability to make plays in tight coverage and against physical play. I thought he needed to get stronger physically. So far, reports from Raiders’ camp indicate that Streater is the most consistent option on the field. While I’m not making a physical comparison, I used to hear the same praise for Todd Pinkston until he hit the field. The Raiders have a receiver in Streater with true upside as an all-around threat, even if he never elevates his game to stardom. My checklist report on Rod Streater with play-by-play notes from a senior-year contest against Ohio.

Running Back Lamichael James, 49ers: San Francisco’s backfield is not as crowded as it appears. As talented and dedicated as he is, Marcus Lattimore is a hope and a dream for next year that may never come to fruition. Kendall Hunter looks fast . . . on the sideline rehabbing an Achilles’ tear. While Hunter is expected back before the season It leaves two healthy backs of note: Frank Gore and Lamichael James. Gore is what Achilles’ would have looked like on a football field post-Trojan Horse Incident (and survived) if his mamma had held him by the backs of his knees while dipping him into the River Styx as a baby. But Gore’s journey to the Elysian Fields of pro football is drawing near and there must be a successor. This year, that successor-in-training could be James, who has bulked up to 205 pounds and maintained his lightning-quick burst and agility. Gore has also noted that James’ improvement as a pass protector is “night and day” better. That’s the key. James has the talent to be this decade’s Brian Westbrook in Pistol formation where he can make a defense pay huge if they misread who is getting the ball. There’s a good chance James may never be a bell-cow back, but give him 120-150 touches and 40-60 receptions and he’ll be a dangerous weapon.

Wide receiver depth for the Texans could be the difference between a deep playoff run and another one-and-done. Photo of Keshawn Martin by Matt Radickal.
Wide receiver depth for the Texans could be the difference between a deep playoff run and another one-and-done. Photo of Keshawn Martin by Matt Radickal.

Wide Receiver Keshawn Martin, Texans: Andre Johnson and DeAndre Hopkins are the receivers of note, but with Jacoby Jones and Kevin Walter leaving town in recent years, I’m curious if Martin can develop fast enough to provide the Texans quality plays not only as a slot receiver, but as depth on the perimeter. Sure Lestar Jean might own that role in name, but I like Martin’s versatility. If Johnson or Hopkins succumb to injury, the Texans will need a second play-maker to be more than a one-and-done playoff team.

Running Back Michael Smith, Buccaneers: The addition of Mike James, Brian Leonard and Peyton Hillis make it appear that the Buccaneers may have Smith as the No.2 runner on its depth chart, but they don’t trust him to have a starter workload with near the volume of Doug Martin. I don’t blame them. However, I do believe he is by far the most talented runner on the roster after Martin and close observers of the Buccaneers happenings have a quiet, but collective man-crush on the explosive, second-year runner from Utah State. I often thought Smith and Colts rookie Kerwynn Williams were smarter runners between the tackles than the team’s big back Robert Turbin.

Wide Receiver LaVon Brazill, Colts: Brazill flashed skill that earned him a spot behind Reggie Wayne last year and he made a few big plays in a cameo role. If you’ve been reading this blog for at least a year then you know I loved his skills at Ohio. A substance abuse violation has left Brazill’s roster spot in jeopardy this summer and by all accounts he’s had a mistake-prone camp. The one thing I did like is that Brazill admitted that he has to eliminate marijuana from his life if he wants a shot at earning a living in the NFL. He stated the obvious rather than danced around the issue. With Darrius Heyward-Bey dealing with a sprained knee, Brazill still has a shot to keep his roster spot despite good work from Andrew Luck’s former Stanford roommate Griff Whalen. On the basis of talent, Whalen is a career reserve; Brazill is a potential starter, but professionalism and consistency matter.

Running Back Chris Polk, Eagles: Polk should have been a no worse than a fourth-round pick based on his talent (and that’s a very conservative estimate), but he went undrafted. I can only speculate through the lens of my own observations why:

  • His conditioning looked like that of a running back from another era. He had a bit of a spare tire at the Senior Bowl.
  • He appeared stiff as an athlete in Mobile.
  • Like Zach Sudfeld this year, Polk’s lengthy injury dossier was a turnoff.

Polk was signed after the Eagles drafted Bryce Brown – a back with immense talent, but had made numerous questionable decisions, including quitting the Kansas State team. But Polk was still good enough to make the Eagles roster last year and this year he and Brown made Dion Lewis expendable. While Brown is a phenomenal talent capable of All-Pro production, Polk isn’t far behind – especially now that he’s in shape. Chip Kelly knows this after facing the University of Washington running back in conference play. Polk is an even better receiver than Brown and he’s a tough, patient runner who breaks tackles. I’m monitoring Polk because I think he’ll push Bryce Brown if Brown continues to bounce runs to the corner store and carry the ball like it’s a dirty diaper.

Wide Receiver Marvin Jones, Bengals: You’re surprised, he’s listed I know. I never mention him. You shouldn’t be surprised that he’s earning more love than Mohammed Sanu from observers at Bengals’ practice. Jones runs better routes, has a better vertical game, and he’s tougher in tight coverage. Not that it will matter greatly, because Marvin Lewis isn’t big on depth charts and Sanu will see plenty of time – especially in the red zone where he thrives. However, it will matter greatly if A.J. Green gets hurt and I believe if this happens Jones can provide the type of production we used to see from Donald Driver in Green Bay.

I've never left the Hillman bandwagon. Just lounging in the backseat enjoying my popcorn. Photo by West Point U.S. Military Academy.
I’ve never left the Hillman bandwagon. Just lounging in the backseat enjoying my popcorn. Photo by West Point U.S. Military Academy.

Running Back Ronnie Hillman, Broncos: I swear there are times I wake in the morning on my office couch after a late night of writing and have a flashback that Cecil Lammey sneaked into my office and chanted “Hillman” in my ear non-stop for 15 minutes. Since I’m not afraid of running backs underwhelming as rookies or being labeled too light or too small, Hillman is near the top of my list as a player worth monitoring during the preseason. The fact he wasn’t much of a blocker didn’t surprised me last year; he still ran like the player I saw at San Diego State. It seems like many people are waiting for Montee Ball to become the starter at some point this season. If Hillman stays healthy, I think those folks might need a comfortable recliner – it even comes in Orange Crush.

Wide Receiver Brian Quick, Rams: I’ve been skeptical of Quick’s prospects and I remain so. Now that the Rams are playing a wide-open offense, can Quick fit in? Can he run routes? Has he improved enough to contribute? Austin Pettis lacks Quick’s athletic upside (which I think has been overstated since fall of 2012), but he understands the game and has great mitts. I’m looking forward to hearing more about Quick’s progress to see if there is any glimmer of hope.

Fantasy draft coming up? Download the 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio available now. Better yet, if you’re a fantasy owner the 56-page Post-Draft Add-on comes with the 2013 RSP at no additional charge and available for download within a week after the NFL Draft. Best, yet, 10 percent of every sale is donated to Darkness to Light to combat sexual abuse. You can purchase past editions of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio for just $9.95 apiece.

10 Offensive Rookies I’m Monitoring In August

0 Comments read Matt Waldman

The past two weeks may not seem like any indication to the contrary, but I do realize there are more rookies in NFL camps than Kenbrell Thompkins. Here is a list of 10 offensive rookies I’m monitoring in training camp.  The criteria isn’t based on immediate impact or talent. These are the guys that intrigue me the most for a variety of reasons.

Rose Bowl MVP Stepfan Taylor isn't fancy, but he's a smart-tough player. (photo by Han Shot First)>
Rose Bowl MVP Stepfan Taylor isn’t fancy, but he’s a smart-tough player. (photo by Han Shot First)>

RB Stepfan Taylor, Cardinals: The former Stanford Cardinals runner is a great fit for the Bruce Arians offense. Much quicker than fast, Taylor’s low center of gravity and shifty style for a power runner makes him the best style of runner for this offense than any player currently on the Arizona depth chart – including Rashard Mendenhall and Ryan Williams. These two veterans are more talented, but I think Taylor has the potential to grow into a more versatile option and he runs with his eyes a little better than the former Steeler. Williams can’t stay healthy to save his life right now – and I think he is playing for his career life this year. Some love Andre Ellington, but I don’t see a future C.J. Spiller. That said, he’s had some good moments in camp thus far and he’s further down my list until I see some moments in preseason.  My pre-draft take on Taylor. 

TE Zach Sudfeld, Patriots: In the 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio I said, “He reminds me a bit of Jermichael Finley [in style], but a better blocker. If he can add more weight and stay this agile, he could become a quality starter.” He’s a versatile player who I think has skill sets that are a blend of what the Patriots asked Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez to do. The 6-7, 255-pound Sudfeld had enough injuries to fatten a medical file at a doctor’s office, but he stayed healthy his senior year in Chris Ault’s Pistol offense. In fact, he functioned as the lead blocker much the way Chris Brown described it at Grantland. Not that Tom Brady will run the Pistol, but if Tim Tebow does in a handful of red zone situations, don’t be surprised if Sudfeld is leading the way. However, what intrigues me about Sudfeld is how fluid he is for his size. He’s not fast for a tight end, but his quickness and skill around the ball is a good skill set for a team in desperate need of solid tight end play to begin the season. Here is my RSP game report and play-by-play notes on Zach Sudfeld last December in the New Mexico Bowl versus Arizona.

Rogers has the kind of upside to render draft status useless. Photo by Wade Rackley.
Rogers has the kind of upside to render draft status useless. Photo by Wade Rackley.

WR Da’Rick Rogers, Bills: Rogers was on thin ice in May after making a reception in practice and showboating. Since that time, Rogers has been quieter with his words, but still making good plays in practice that should earn him a spot with the team. A tough, physical player capable of winning the ball in tight coverage, Rogers has the talent to replace Steve Johnson as the primary option in the Bills offense by 2015 because he also displays quickness and agility to generate big plays in the open field. With Robert Woods looking like a 10-year veteran in training camp, Rogers could have some big moments when he finally sees a starting lineup and teams can’t double-cover him.

RB Spencer Ware, Seahawks: I’m still just as intrigued with Ware, who is competing for a spot as a fullback/running back tweener, as I was before the NFL Draft. Reports from camp are good enough that some observers have had to check their roster lists to make sure the back they saw breaking quality runs wasn’t Christine Michael. Ware has looked good as a receiver and pass protector and because of his smarts between the tackles, I wouldn’t be at all surprised if by 2015 he earns more time as a running back than people expected when the team announced he’d be a fullback. Again, I thought Ware was the toughest runner at the college level I saw last year and a severely underrated runner. He’s a perfect fit for the Seahawks’ system.

TE Chris Gragg, Bills: An athletic move-tight end with sticky hands as both a receiver and blocker, Gragg is making good in practices. I think he needs to improve his technique as a blocker – especially his footwork. I’m keen to see how the Bills under Doug Marrone will use tight ends like Scott Chandler or Gragg in its offense. With Johnson getting moved around at receiver, Woods looking like a starter, Rogers displaying promise, and even Marqise Goodwin holding his own to earn a roster spot, is there room for a productive tight end in this offense? I think so. Gragg won’t earn it this year, but it’s why I still want to monitor his development.

TE Dion Sims, Dolphins:  Gragg is piquing my interest because of Doug Marrone’s praise of the tight end before the pads came on. However, Gragg has always been a fine athlete so shining in shorts wasn’t a surprise. While Gragg is earning first-team reps with the Bills due to injuries ahead of him on the depth chart, Sims has earned his second-team looks and first-team reps in two-tight end sets with his competition healthy. Sims isn’t Antonio Gates, but he has the size and fluid athleticism to become a starting tight end in the NFL. I wouldn’t be surprised if he produces along the same lines as Brandon Pettigrew in Detroit by 2015. Dustin Keller isn’t a big guy and in the past he’s struggled to maintain is playing weight, so keep an eye on Sims this year because Keller’s season-long availability can be an issue.

WR Russell Shepard, Eagles: I’ve shared this story a number of times this spring and summer, but for about 15 minutes during a Senior Bowl practice, Shephard looked like a top wide receiver prospect. He was smooth, technically sound, quick, and excellent at snatching the ball. Then, I think fatigue set it and he got sloppy. Not a big player at the position, but he seems to handle physical play reasonably well. With Jeremy Maclin out for the year, Riley Cooper having a dark side of America moment, and the rest of the wide receiver depth chart up for grabs, Shepard continues to play well enough to be in the mix for playing time. If DeSean Jackson gets hurt, this passing game could be a disaster, but Shepard and Damaris Johnson could earn some of the sloppy seconds.

Chris Thompson and Lamichael James have a fair bit in common on the field. Photo by .PDA Photo.
Chris Thompson and Lamichael James have a fair bit in common on the field. Photo by .PDA Photo.

RB Chris Thompson, Redskins: Mike Shanahan believes Thompson had first-round ability. Based on what I saw, Thompson was a dynamic runner with great conceptual understanding of setting up blocks and bursting through holes. He showed enough promise catching the football that I wondered if he wouldn’t be a bad candidate as a future slot receiver. Thompson’s recovery from ACL surgery has put some stress on his quadriceps and he’s not practicing right now. If he can return soon and display his skills, I think he could provide a similar element to the Redskins running game that we might just see from the 49ers Lamichael James.

WR Marquess Wilson, Bears: I’m a fan of his skills. If he can remain consistent and mature, he could be a steal for Marc Trestman and the Bears. With Earl Bennett suffering another concussion and Wilson making some nice catches in Bears’ camp, he could solidify a roster spot. One of the youngest players entering the NFL this year, I wouldn’t be shocked if the former Washington State star and Alshon Jeffery are the future starters – and a productive duo – by 2015. The reason I say this is that Trestman has already said that Wilson needs to get stronger before he becomes a serious NFL contributor. While this statement could be taken as Wilson is on his way out the door, I think it’s more of long-term assessment for a player they’re treating like a third or fourth-round pick they’ll be keeping for at least a year or two.

WR Cordarrelle Patterson, Vikings: He may not show it this year, but long-term I think Patterson is the third-best rookie prospect for dynasty leagues in 2013. I also believe the pre-draft concerns about his intelligence are about as valid as what we learned in hindsight about rumors that Warren Sapp failed 7 drug tests at the University of Miami and smoked crack. Patterson is the most gifted athlete with the ball in his hands of this draft class. I’ve seen tape of some of the Vikings practices and I think there’s no reason to doubt his ability to become a star. The only receiver in the same conversation as Patterson with the ball in his hands is Dez Bryant. I don’t know if Patterson can become as good of a receiver as the road Bryant is traveling, but  only the most serious NFL nerds may see a major difference.

Fantasy draft coming up? Download the 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio available now. Better yet, if you’re a fantasy owner the 56-page Post-Draft Add-on comes with the 2013 RSP at no additional charge and available for download within a week after the NFL Draft. Best, yet, 10 percent of every sale is donated to Darkness to Light to combat sexual abuse. You can purchase past editions of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio for just $9.95 apiece.

Reads Listens Views 8/2/2013

0 Comments read Reads Listens Views
It's already difficult enough for the NFL to pick a prized catch from the multitudes. Even so, it needs to keep getting better. See below. Photo from National Geographic.
It’s already difficult enough for the NFL to pick a prized catch from the multitudes. Even so, it needs to keep getting better. See below. Photo from National Geographic.

Views

[youtube=http://youtu.be/0Q5pW6I0sEk]

Nica’s Dream – great tune performed by an excellent guitarist.

Football Read & Commentary

Thompkins might be an example of how most NFL teams weren't thorough enough with character evaluation. Photo by expatsfootball.com
Thompkins might be an example of how most NFL teams weren’t thorough enough with character evaluation. Photo by expatsfootball.com

Kenbrell Thompkins Rescues Himself From Woes – I think most of you get it: I’m rooting for Thompkins because I liked what I saw from him on the field. Another reason is what I read in Michael McKnight’s Sports Illustrated piece on Thompkins well before the Patriots signed him.  The Boston Herald delves a little deeper into Thompkins’ story now that the UDFA wide out has impressed just about everyone who has attended a training camp practice. I’ve written about the public and private scrutiny of character  and the gulf that young players often have to traverse to transition from college star to productive professional.

I’m linking to Thompkins’ camp reports so much this preseason, because I think it’s important to celebrate people who turn their lives around and make good.  Regardless of whether he becomes a productive player, Thompkins is proof positive that people can grow past the mistakes of their youth. If it is true that NFL teams didn’t sign him due to his seven arrests in high school then it’s also an indication that there’s significant flaws in the evaluation process – especially when it comes to assessing character.

Read the two stories above and you’ll understand that this young man hasn’t been arrested in eight years. He’s been on a zero-tolerance program with Cincinnati’s Butch Jones. He worked his tail off in Torrance, California to learn the receiver position. He graduated with a degree in criminal justice.

If a team didn’t draft him due to seven arrests before adulthood then I have to believe that they aren’t examining players with enough depth or perspective. They didn’t consider when he was arrested and his law-abiding behavior since. If they interviewed any of the coaches, teammates, or family members of Thompkins, they either didn’t trust what they heard or took a way too cautious approach. I believe they were covering their asses.

It’s easy to jump through hoops and say you’re thorough, but if you’re not truly analyzing the information, what is all that time, money, and effort worth? That’s the blow-back of a public relations-conscious society: We spend more time focused on covering ourselves to avoid looking bad than actually spending the time to make a good decision. Saying you’re being thorough so you’re not scrutinized and being thorough so you can face it with confidence are two different things.

At the same time, Thompkins’ 78 catches, 1077 yards, and 4 touchdowns in 2 years isn’t fantastic college production so there could have been a good argument made that teams expected to be able to wait until the end of the draft to sign the receiver. However, the fact that Butch Jones had use his connections to sell the Patriots on Thompkins is a telling sign that the NFL saw “seven arrests” and didn’t bother to look hard enough.

There’s lots of talk from former scouts that NFL teams spend as much or more money on private investigators and delving into character than studying on-field performance. If that’s true, Thompkins is a developing into a compelling case why the quality of the legwork may need further review.

Remember great players are exceptions to the role. They are unconventional. If you’re only willing to consider some template version of what’s good to cover your hind parts then you’ll never spot the exceptional.

Views

Speaking of exceptional. This "MJD-like dude" (according to Rex Ryan) is impressing with his speed and pass protection in Jets training camp.
Speaking of exceptional. This “MJD-like dude” (according to Rex Ryan) is impressing with his speed and pass protection in Jets training camp. Keep up the good work and Manish Mehta will remember your first name.

Views

[youtube=http://youtu.be/_Amwq43-lrM]

Now this is how you do “Happy Birthday”

Non-Football Reads

Views – Bob Burnquist (Thanks to Sigmund Bloom)

[youtube=http://youtu.be/tSnfO15cAHE]

This is a well-executed creative life. Inspiring stuff to see a man build this environment to continue growing in his field. I understand the desire.

Views – Chain of Fools

[youtube=http://youtu.be/h8rnHXV7A8Q]

Kind of looks like “Boogie Woogie Man” Jimmy Valiant, don’t you think?

A 261-page online publication that provides 1029 pages of play-by-play notes from my evaluation database and 10 percent of your purchase is donated to fight sexual abuse.
A 261-page online publication that provides 1029 pages of play-by-play notes from my evaluation database and 10 percent of your purchase is donated to fight sexual abuse.

Thank You

Generally, I post this in the beginning. If you’re new to the Rookie Scouting Portfolio blog then you may wonder why I’m posting non-football content today. Every Friday I like to change things up a bit to share what I found compelling during the week. Some of the stories are difficult reads and the music may not be your taste, but that’s just the luck of the draw. What I hope you’ll find worthwhile is this blog when I’m writing about football.

Based on the response thus far, you deserve a lot of thanks for helping me grow this outlet since its inception in 2011. That goes double for those of you who have taken the plunge and purchase the Rookie Scouting Portfolio publication. Now in its eighth year, the RSP is the most comprehensive – and perhaps meticulous – study of rookie skill players available.

For $19.95 you get both a pre-draft publication that includes rankings, game report cards, and play-by-play analysis for each player and a post-draft publication that updates rankings into a tiered cheat sheet and provides draft value data, and analysis on each player’s fit with his new team.  If you’re a fantasy football owner this publication will supply you with the information and perspective you’ll need to pull the trigger (or refrain) in re-draft and dynasty leagues.

I don’t have a mass audience like the big boys, but you should know that my readers are repeat customers who often have a “slap their forehead moment” once they make the decision to purchase the RSP because it’s worth more than they pay for it. The first-time buyers tell me so.

This is a career for me every year I try to make it better than the last in terms of quality of content, transparency of analysis, and improvement of my evaluation process.  Because I spend so much time creating this information, I don’t get to make the time I’d like to give back to the community in the way I was once accustomed in my youth. So it dawned on me in 2012 to donate 10 percent of every sale to a cause I believe in: Darkness to Light. This organization trains individuals and community organizations to recognize and prevent sexual abuse in communities. As football fans, I think we know first hand how even smart, accomplished people can do a poor job of handling the issue of sexual abuse.

Get the RSP and make this a win (you) – win (me) – win (giving back to the community) scenario and download the 2013 RSP now. Past issues (2006-2012) are available for $9.95.

How I’d Use Tim Tebow In New England

0 Comments read Matt Waldman
I haven't written much about Tebow, but here's an instance where I'd love to see him used in New England. Photo by Wade Rackley.
I haven’t written much about Tebow, but here’s an instance below where I’d love to see him used in New England. Photo by Wade Rackley.

Outside of Kenbrell Thompkins and Shane Vereen, I haven’t been a close observer of Patriots training camp. However, I heard there might be some use of Tebow as a tight end and it got me thinking of how I’d use Tim Tebow if I were New England’s offensive coordinator.

The Obvious

I’d be shocked if the Patriots don’t use Tebow on read-option plays in the red zone at least on a few plays a year. I don’t think it will happen a lot, because taking Tom Brady off the field is foolish. However, I think it will be difficult for the Patriots coaching staff to resist the temptation against some weaker run teams.

The reason is Rob Gronkowski’s strength as a run blocker combined with Zach Sudfeld’s experience as a wing back/H-back in Chris Ault’s Pistol sets as a lead blocker – much like Chris Brown described in his recent Grantland piece.  This two-tight end personnel with Sudfeld a better lead blocker than Aaron Hernandez ever was could provide a short-yardage power element and increase the versatility of the set.  I’ll illustrate the wrinkle I’d use later.

Tim Tebow Tight End?

I’ve heard this is a possibility and it’s the red zone sets where I think the Patriots would implement it. Think about Mike Vrabel’s work as a red zone tight end and I think we can expect similar looks to Tebow – especially with teams focused on Gronkowski. If the rookie Sudfeld – a 6’7″ specimen with skill to adjust to the football – plays to his potential, opposing defenses could lose track of Tebow as a receiver.

Using Tebow at tight end also creates additional formation flexibility where the Patriots can adjust before the snap:

  • Shift Gronkowski or Sudfeld away from the formation.
  • Shift Tebow to the backfield as a runner or quarterback.
  • Hand the ball the Ridley to an unbalanced strong side with Tebow as a fullback/H-Back.
  • Use unbalanced sets with Tebow on the wing to dictate a numbers advantage to one side and then throw backside crosses, slants, and jerk routes to receivers.

There’s a lot that Tebow’s presence can do for red zone packages. My favorite is the last one below.

Two-Quarterback Backfield

Tebow

This setup could create a lot of options for an offense in the red zone. First, it’s an unbalanced set with two versatile tight ends. Brady could shift the tight ends to balance the line. Or, if the shift would place one or both of the tight ends in a match up advantage with a linebacker, nickel corner, or safety of preference, they could spread the field.

But what I love most about this look is that Tebow could run, pass, or catch from his alignment. Placing Tebow behind Sudfeld on the wing provides enormous flexibility in the run game. If the defensive numbers are stacked to the strong side, they can run a counter with Sudfeld as a lead blocker and the twin receivers slanting inside to seal the inside.

If the defenses has even distribution, Tebow can run behind the strong side with good blocks ahead. The Patriots could do this with a direct snap to Tebow or an exchange from Brady.

And it’s this split of the quarterbacks over the guards that could force defenses to guess which player is getting the ball. Teams will guess run if it goes to Tebow, pass to Brady. But Tebow has proven he can deliver the ball in the red zone and there will be times he will have easy throws to Gronkowski or Sudfeld and even easier passes to his left (his natural side) to the backside receivers.

If teams are too aggressive playing Tebow, Brady also could have some easy throws.   Plus, I’d use two of  Shane Vereen, Julian Edelman (if ready), and Danny Amendola as my receivers. I could incorporate some Wildcat with Tebow and Vereen/Edelman motioning from the outside towards the formation.  Now there’s the possibility of zone-read, Wild Cat, and guessing which quarterback gets the snap.

If you’re fan of the team or have been monitoring training camp, let me know if what I describe below is happening in practices.

Eagles WR Riley Cooper: What He Offers, What to Monitor

0 Comments read Matt Waldman
Riley Cooper is a rapport-type of player. He has the skills to succeed, but his QB will need to have the confidence and skills to make tight throws. Photo by Matthew Straubmuller.
Riley Cooper is a rapport-type of player. He has the skills to succeed, but his QB will need to have the confidence and skills to make tight throws. Photo by Matthew Straubmuller.

During the Urban Meyer Era at Florida there were three skill guys who caught my eye and held serious intrigue as future NFL players: Aaron Hernandez, Tim Tebow, and Riley Cooper. Hernandez’s potential as a game-changing weapon were apparent whenever he saw a target where he could turn up field. Tebow was the lightning rod for debate. Former CBS Sportsline/NFL Draft Scout and NFL.com film analyst Chad Reuter and I had our first fun debate over Tebow. Reuter was convinced Tebow would be a first-round pick and he was right.

While I thought Tebow would have a tough time developing the skills of a traditional pocket passer, I have to credit Reuter for seeing ahead of the curve and having an understanding that the read-option was coming to the league. While Tebow may never get a long-term opportunity again as a starter, there may be a similar dynamic in play that held back Doug Flutie. Different style players, but both thrived as improvisers and leaders and could win with the right offensive system.

But it was Cooper who I thought was sliding under the radar. Tall (6’4″), built (224 lbs.), and swift enough to get separation down field, Cooper didn’t benefit from playing in a system where the quarterback could make multiple reads and execute the vertical game efficiently. Those weren’t Tebow’s strengths, but there were still enough examples on tape where Cooper flashed the potential to develop a complete game.

I wasn’t alone. NFL Network analyst Daniel Jeremiah was between scouting gigs that year when Cecil Lammey and I caught up with him at the Senior Bowl. Cooper was one of Jeremiah’s favorite receivers at the practices and I could see why. Cooper was consistently working open on intermediate routes, earning separation deep, and making difficult targets look easy. He wasn’t flashy, but he was sound.

It may not be how it went down, but it’s no coincidence to me that Jeremiah took a job as a scout with the Eagles soon after the Senior Bowl and Philadelphia drafted Cooper in April. Now that Jeremy Maclin is out for the year, Cooper earns a golden opportunity to start for the Eagles. It seems most observers and fans aren’t impressed with Cooper.

With the exception of some nice work with Vince Young a couple of years ago, I haven’t seen Cooper do much since his days at Florida so there’s a chance he hasn’t developed his game for the pros at the expected trajectory I thought he was capable. However, I have a sneaky feeling that those who are underwhelmed by Cooper are those who need to see a flashy game to be impressed by a skill player.

Here’s my predraft take of Riley Cooper from the 2010 Rookie Scouting Portfolio. Cooper was my No.8 receiver overall behind the likes of Dez Bryant, Damian Williams, Golden Tate, Arrelious Benn, Andre Roberts, Eric Decker, and Blair White – and of course, Demaryius Thomas.

Report Highlights

Cooper scored a 74 and an 81 on two game reports I performed on him as a Senior against Alabama and Cincinnati in the 2010 Sugar Bowl. These reports are on a 100-point scale and Cooper’s scores placed him in the range of a bench player with the skill to contribute immediately in selected packages if needed. These evaluations were done a year or two before I began documenting a “Ceiling Score,” which is my way of gauging his potential at the NFL level based on the ease or difficulty of what he needed to learn.

Looking back through my notes, I think Cooper’s ceiling score would have been in the high 80s – low 90s, which is starter material.  Below are cleaned up play-by-play notes from these two games. Cooper’s stats versus Alabama:

  • 7 Targets
  • 1 Missed Target (QB)
  • 2 Drop
  • 2 Dropped After Contact
  • 77 Yards
  • 51 YAC

Cooper’s stats versus Cincinnati:

  • 8 Targets
  • 1 Missed Target (QB)
  • 7 Receptions
  • 2 Difficult Receptions
  • 181 Yards
  • 60 YAC
  • 1 TD

Here are my overall summaries of these two games as well as my actual play-by-play notes of Riley Cooper that describe what I saw.

Overall Strengths (vs. Alabama): I think Cooper has a lot of potential to be a starting NFL receiver. He is a physical player against press coverage and uses his size to his advantage to get open. He has enough speed to separate vertically and he can adjust to the football in the air. He demonstrates some facility with pro-style, intermediate routes. He is a good runner in the open field who can dip in and out of traffic and shows good balance to get yards after contact. He is a physical player as a blocker and can help on special teams.

I don’t think Cooper is as athletic as Jordy Nelson, but he might be a better receiver at this stage of his development. Michael Irvin would be at the top of the spectrum of receivers to compare Cooper (stylistically). I think he has more upside and down field speed than Malcolm Kelly.

Overall Strengths (vs. Cincinnati): Good route runner. He sets up defenders in single coverage on deep routes with subtle, but very effective moves to get defenders to turn their hips at the wrong time. he can adjust to the ball in the air and make catches with his hands away from his body in tight coverage. Combine these skills with what I think is good speed and Cooper has NFL potential.

Overall Weaknesses (vs. Alabama): Cooper dropped the tough catches after contact that an NFL receiver needs to make. He has good, but not great speed. He needs to prove he can run the entire route tree. Cooper also lacks dynamic athleticism to become a major open-field threat.

Overall Weaknesses (vs. Cincinnati): I didn’t see him face press coverage. he will need to work on extending his routes in the pros because he’ll be playing with quarterbacks that will have the ability to look to more than one quadrant of the field.

What To Look For In Eagles Camp

Cooper will need to catch the ball in tight coverage and after contact. If he still has consistency issues against physical play as the ball arrives, he’s only going to be a role player because his athleticism is good enough, but only good enough to get initial separation and then use his frame to shield the defender from the ball. This means Cooper will be a better fit for the quarterback capable of squeezing the ball into a tight window. If you hear about Cooper working extra with quarterbacks to get more rapport this will be a good sign, because he’s not going to get two steps on defenders and run the ball down as much as he’ll have to make a catch with a defender draped over his back.

Cooper’s size and strength makes him a good candidate for red zone targets on fades, crossing routes, and plays at the end line. If Nick Foles or Matt Barkley see the field, Cooper could earn a lot more targets in the red zone than I think he will with Vick under center. Foles was a pretty good fade route passer at Arizona and Barkley to Woods was often a thing of beauty at USC.

As I mentioned earlier, I did see some nice work with Cooper and Vince Young on scramble drills and I think this is where he may shine with Vick for some big plays behind the defense. However, this is contingent on Vick not leaning heavily on zone-beater Jason Avant, who has some of the most reliable mitts on the team and works a shorter-safer range of the field.

2013 Outlook

I expect DeSean Jackson, LeSean McCoy, James Casey, and Zach Ertz to earn the most targets this year. Cooper might threaten Casey or Ertz’s standing on the totem pole, but I think it’s more likely that Jason Avant, Damaris Johnson, and even Russell Shephard will earn some looks in a rotation that limit Cooper’s targets. However, if Foles or Barkley earn time, Cooper might surprise in the way fellow teammate David Nelson did with the Bills during the Ryan Fitzpatrick era.

For analysis of skill players in this year’s draft class, download the 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio available now. Better yet, if you’re a fantasy owner the 56-page Post-Draft Add-on comes with the 2013 RSP at no additional charge and available for download within a week after the NFL Draft. Best, yet, 10 percent of every sale is donated to Darkness to Light to combat sexual abuse. You can purchase past editions of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio for just $9.95 apiece.

Reads Listens Views 7/26/2013

0 Comments read Reads Listens Views

Listens I – Johnny Adams 

[youtube=http://youtu.be/YAi0ZYI8EKs]

Thanks

You’d think it’s routine for me thank you for making the RSP blog a regular pit stop on your journey through the week. It is, but it doesn’t feel like it.  I have great readers who not only send me links to music, they send me CDs. They not only send me links to articles they find interesting, they send me books. And they not only send me well wishes, but cards for the holidays.

That’s crazy cool. Even for a reasonably private guy like me, who can do the extrovert thing, but naturally craves moments of alone time and silence throughout the day. Think about it, does an extrovert really spend this much time in a room by himself studying football like it’s research?  I suppose there are some, but they’re slightly more common than a two-headed shark.

Your visits, your follows, and your purchases of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio provide the emotional and fiscal encouragement to continue this journey and I am grateful for your patronage. So is my 12-year-old cat, who is currently holding my mouse hostage until I finish writing this post and get some sleep.

Luckily, I get around a keyboard well enough to tell you to do yourself a favor and support the Rookie Scouting Portfolio. Sign up for my mailing list to get updates on posts and purchase the publication. The 2013 RSP is $19.95 and includes over 1200 pages of pre-draft analysis that’s great for long-term use as a fantasy owner or draftnik and a post-draft publication that most of my readers believe is worth the price on its own for its tiered rankings, average draft position data from early season dynasty drafts, and value scores derived from this analysis. Get a sample report here.

Best of all, you’re supporting more than the Rookie Scouting Portfolio. I donate 10 percent of every sale to Darkness to Light, an organization whose mission is to address and prevent sexual abuse in communities across the country through training programs to the people who matter most – adults in local communities who interact with children like teachers, police officers, little league coaches, and clergy. Download the RSP here.

Football Reads

  • Why Don’t Woodpeckers Get Concussions – Ryan Riddle and Jene Bramel (and to a lesser extend me) had a Twitter discussion about concussions. It lead to the topic of why some animals (Rams and Woodpeckers) don’t suffer brain injuries. This article connects it back to football.
  • Breaking Down Sam Bradford’s Approach To A Game-Winning Drive – Allen Dumonjic’s The Tape Never Lies pieces are always worth a read. He was first on my list of writers I wanted to guest write for this blog, but he’s got bigger and better things ahead for him.
  • 2013 PPR Auction Values – Good advice from Sigmund Bloom on how to develop a good auction strategy. Simple, easy, intuitive, and totally Bloom.

Listens II – Freddie King: “I’m Goin’ Down”

[youtube=http://youtu.be/V_ONyukSLqA]

Non-Football Reads

Views – These Images Might Tempt You To Eat Bugs

These images are from David George Gordon’s The Eat-A-Bug Cookbook and re-posted from the NPR Blog The Salt. My comments on what I’d eat below as well as Paulette’s. Note I’m a moderately adventurous eater and Mrs. P ain’t.

Sheesh! kebabs can be made with Eastern Lubber Grasshoppers (pictured here), katydids or other large-bodied arthropods.

Me: I’d try the grasshopper-kebabs, I can already imagine the balance of the sweet, sumptuousness of the grilled peppers complementing the crunch of the bug. Even the bug has a beautiful presentation with that hue of pinkness.

Paulette: Hmm…maybe if I closed my eyes, but if you put this in front of me I’d say two things: 1) You must be joking. And 2) Where’s my steak?

Fried green tomato hornworms

Me: Beautiful presentation . . .

Paulette: What? I don’t eat food that is as bright green as nuclear waste. I also dislike dishes heavy on tomatoes –

Me: And worms?

Paulette: Especially those. Although in an abstract way, it’s a beautiful picture, but as you know I don’t eat glowing green food. You? You could eat avocado all day.

Me: You eat that guacamole at the place near your office.

Paulette: That’s because they make a show of preparing it and I see everything they put in it.

Gordon recommends dusting the deep-fried tarantula spider with smoked paprika.

Paulette: [Retracts instinctively from the screen in horror (she has severe arachnophobia) and after her breathing slows down] Why did you even show me this?!

Me: It’s the first time I’ve seen this, too. Looks a little like calamari.

Paulette: Hell no . . . a girl has got to eat, but I’d starve to death first.

Me: If you didn’t suffocate from hyperventilation first.

Paulette: That too!

Me: I wonder what they do with the fur?

Paulette: That’s not funny . . .

Listens III – The Black Crowes and The Tedeschi Trucks Band

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lNJRx1cMYpM&w=420&h=315]

RSP Flashback: Vincent Brown (and Austin Collie and Steve Smith)

0 Comments read Matt Waldman
Vincent Brown's evaluation for me was a culmination of lessons learned before watching him. Photo by mclanea.
Vincent Brown’s evaluation for me was a culmination of lessons learned before watching him. Photo by mclanea.

One of the most common questions I get from new readers is What did you think about [insert player name here] before [NFL team] drafted him? For the next month, I’m posting scouting reports and/or thoughts on some of my bigger hits, misses, and lingering questions when it comes to the past eight years of evaluating rookies for the Rookie Scouting Portfolio. I’ll also include the lessons I learned – or am still learning – from the experience of evaluating these players.

Quickness Is More Important Than Speed

But what I think gives Collie a chance to produce is his burst. He’s not a burner, but he is among the quickest receivers in this class. He may not catch 50-yard bombs with great separation on his opponent, but he’s faster than most in his class during his first 20 yards down field. As he gains experience, Collie will be able to set up his routes around his burst.

– 2009 Rookie Scouting Portfolio

Put Brown on a team with a strong play action game and he has the similar early route speed of an Austin Collie to get on top of a defender and generate big gains in addition to the between-the hash heroics of a possession receiver. Brown’s skills as a route runner, his technique against press coverage, and comfort level with physical play makes him a starter-caliber prospect regardless of a slower 40-time.

– 2011 Rookie Scouting Portfolio

To describe what I learned from watching Vincent Brown, I have to go back to what I saw with Austin Collie and Steve Smith. In a 2009 wide receiver class that included the likes of Michael Crabtree, Percy Harvin, and Hakeem Nicks, I thought Collie had the best pair of hands I’ve seen since Larry Fitzgerald.  Nicks had this around-the-back catch against West Virginia and the 49ers staff raves about Crabtree’s hands, and both can make showy plays. Then there’s Fitzgerald, who makes the kind of ostentatious catches that seem impossible.

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XNcMF6ozE_Y&start=21w=420&h=315]

With the exception of a play at BYU where Collie dug a ball millimeters from the ground, Collie’s difficult grabs are generally understated. However, they are the type of passes that I often see more heralded prospects drop:

  • Seams, crossers, and post routes where the receiver just clears the underneath defender as the ball arrives, all the while aware of a strong chance he’ll get sandwiched. I call these Money Catches.
  • Low passes on comeback routes.
  • Catching the corner fade with the outside hand while looking over the inside shoulder.

Inexplicably, you won’t see a lot of these plays in YouTube highlights of Collie’s work at BYU. But a discussion of hands when it comes to receivers is talking about how well a basketball player can shoot. While there are a dozens of plays every year where the ostentatious catch is necessary, it’s a small percentage overall. When it comes to evaluating receivers, there’s a point where it crosses the line from utility to eye candy.

Basketball and football players have to show they can move with and without the ball and just like great shots and catches, speed can also cross the line from utility to eye candy. I don’t care if a receiver can beat everyone on the field in a race if he can’t make the right decisions to run the correct route,  he can’t handle physical play from those covering him over top, and he lacks the concentration to win the football in difficult situations, the value of his speed diminishes greatly.

Sabermetics/Analytics: Good Intentions Needing Reassessment

I think most fans and sabermetricians in football place far too much emphasis on the 40 time. I believe they don’t understand the actual cut-off point for what is a good 40-time. They place the cutoff in the 4.5 range. Based on the articles I’ve read at several sites, 4.5-speed is adequate and 4.3 is elite.

If I’m correct, it’s a misplaced notion. While a receiver with great straight line speed can be dominant, he’s only great if he can do everything else that a receiver is supposed to do: process the game in real-time, catch the ball against defenders, and run the offense with precision.  It’s rare for a receiver to out-run coverage with a safety over the top without some form of manipulation from another player. While a fast receiver may command that attention and place more stress on a defense it’s getting rarer despite the fact that receivers are getting faster with all of this emphasis on 40 time and 40-time training.

Regardless of the current NFL paradigm, I believe 4.6-4.7 – speed is adequate as long as that player has refined (or the potential to refine) technical and conceptual skills and adequate quickness. This is where players like Collie, Smith, and Brown shined. Their initial quickness is better than adequate. The same could be said for Anquan Boldin, Brandon Lloyd, Hakeem Nicks, and DeAndre Hopkins, who were all slower 40 runners.

I think the intent of analytics is a good one. They want to provide takeaways that help readers, fans, and in some cases, NFL teams. However, I have my fair share of interaction with marketing research – a field that is growing and getting attention just like football analytics.

The difference is that people who do marketing analytics understand the difficulty of truly arriving at short takeaways that executive teams desire. This is why it’s still difficult for them to get a seat at the boardroom table. Football analytics is a hot area, but it executives are also demanding takeaways. If market research is struggling to deliver these simple and elegant answers and they have strong academic training in statistical modeling, I fear that some in the football analytics field are are marketing their method as “the truth” when their methods would not pass muster in a true research environment.

Until personnel staff, sabermetricians, and fans actual focus on asking the right question (What is adequate speed and burst?), then I think they will struggle to deliver any worthwhile answer and just continue to torture data under the banner of objectivity. The problem is that many of these stats-based theories lack the setting and resources to do the quality of work required to generate optimal value. Still, it’s entertaining and don’t get me wrong, there are those who have the perspective to deliver nuggets of good information without getting too ambitious – Chase Stuart and Doug Drinen are two of my faves.

Just like scouting players based on tape, football analytics is still young. Scouting may be its older brother with a lot of dysfunctional traits, but analytics is a toddler in the same family that hasn’t worked through its hangups to avoid impacting its second son.

Team Fit Is Most Important

While Moss had the precision and speed to run under balls, he also could win 50/50 targets. Not all can do so and this makes fit to a players strengths a paramount importance in scouting. Photo by Brian J. McDermott.
While Moss had the precision and speed to run under balls, he also could win 50/50 targets. Not all can do so and this makes fit to a players strengths a paramount importance in scouting. Photo by Brian J. McDermott.

With an accurate quarterback who possesses exquisite timing, quickness outweighs speed. This is why a player like Collie or Steve Smith were great fits for a quarterback like Peyton Manning, but not so much for passer who relies more pure arm strength over precision. Randy Moss and Cris Carter were perfect fits for Daunte Culpepper, because the Vikings passer had truth arm strength. Moss could run under anything or win any 50/50 ball. Carter could also win 50/50 balls and had an incredible catch radius.

Culpepper didn’t need as much precision with these two as he would with Keenan McCardell, Reggie Wayne, Austin Collie, or Steve Smith. At the same time, Collie and Smith could make the tough plays in traffic. Pair them with a quarterback with the confidence to allow them to win the ball, and they could still thrive. However, that quarterback has to demonstrate good decision-making when to take that type of chance.

This is a good example why team fit is a huge factor with evaluating players. One list of rankings does not fit all.

The Colts list had to value precision as well as physical and mental quickness. What you will see in any BYU highlight video of Collie is a consistent ability to get behind linebackers, corners, and safeties on vertical routes despite the fact that he was labeled as slow.

A Quick Thinker, Acts quicker.

Get the early advantage and it shows up later. This is why Collie won so many vertical routes or is running wide open through zones. His big plays at Indy often came on quick-hitting, precision plays. These are difficult passes because of the mental component. Think about how many Collie and Manning connected on and you’ll see how quickness often trumps speed.

Collie’s RSP score was an 85, which is high for a wide receiver in my system. Only Crabtree, Harvin, and Darrius Heyward-Bey (a lesson learned that it’s very important for a receiver to show he can catch the ball away from his body and not allow athleticism to gloss over technique) had higher scores that year.

Although I thought Collie could get separation in the NFL because of his precision, burst, and concentration, I wasn’t confident enough in my assessment to rank him higher than 12th in this class when he should have been no lower than seventh.

This is something I also saw with Giants receiver Steve Smith in 2007. The former USC receiver had the burst to get separation but not the long speed to have a lot of uncontested vertical targets unless his quarterback could demonstrate precision timing. Eli Manning lacked that refined skill during the Smith years and threw the ball late on several play action passes where Smith was wide open with a double move.

Lessons Don’t Come In A Linear Procession

Steve Smith didn't validate my notions until his third year - six months after evaluating Austin Collie. Photo by J. Handleman.
Steve Smith didn’t validate my notions until his third year – six months after evaluating Austin Collie. Photo by J. Handleman.

You would think I would have learned that Collie could hang in the NFL as a starter if I saw similar qualities from Steve Smith (.PDF Sample) as a top-3 receiver in my 2007 class. However, the validation of these points came too late for Collie because I produced my evaluation of Collie about 6-8 months prior to the 2009 season – the Pro Bowl year where Smith caught 107 passes for 1220 yards and 7 touchdowns.

That’s the fascinating thing about life – it doesn’t take a linear path (no matter how much we want to torture ourselves to make it so). Where these lessons began to take an applicable shape for me was in 2011 with Vincent Brown. The San Diego State receiver scored an 89 in my evaluation process – only A.J. Green (98) and Greg Salas (90) where higher.

I thought Salas had a ruggedness that was similar to Jordy Nelson and Michael Irvin. However, he didn’t show that same skill early in St. Louis and it cost him. A theory I have with Salas – beyond his own performance – is that once a player gets to the NFL and has NFL tape, teams rely more on the NFL scouts and the college book gets less weight. While the case doesn’t look good for Salas I think there’s still an element of his NFL story where the jury is out.

It also means we’re all still deliberating on Vincent Brown. He flashed excellent skill as a rookie, missed most of the year with an ankle injury last year, and has now earned a lot of praise from Chargers’ head coach Mike McCoy for his routes. Brown’s skill to get into optimal position combined with his hands makes him a player capable of earning time on the field, but he reason he fits so well with Philip Rivers is the fact he’s physical enough to make the Steve Smith-style money plays.

Rivers is a fearless passer. He has good timing over the middle, but tends to loft the ball on deeper routes. This means we see more plays where the receiver has to win the ball rather than run under it.

Rivers had this type of player with Vincent Jackson – a huge, downfield bully of a receiver who could win in tight coverage. Danario Alexander has some of this in his game, but has to stay healthy. Brown isn’t that big, but like Derrick Mason or Henry Ellard of years past, he has the skills to win the football in the air on intermediate and deep routes where timing doesn’t have to be pitch-perfect.

Here’s my pre-draft report on Vincent Brown. It’s a culmination of lessons I’ve been learning with the likes of Collie and Smith. Regardless of his future performance, I saw enough of him as a rookie to know that he has starter skill if he plays to his ability.

For analysis of skill players in this year’s draft class, download the 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio available now. Better yet, if you’re a fantasy owner the 56-page Post-Draft Add-on comes with the 2013 RSP at no additional charge and available for download within a week after the NFL Draft. Best, yet, 10 percent of every sale is donated to Darkness to Light to combat sexual abuse. You can purchase past editions of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio for just $9.95 apiece.