Posts tagged Rookie Scouting Portfolio

2013 RSP Post-Draft

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Will Bell be an immediate impact player in Pittsburgh? Photo by Matt Radick.
Will Bell be an immediate impact player in Pittsburgh? My take on this and the rest of the skill position picks (and UDFAs) coming this week – see below. Photo by Matt Radick.

For the next few days, I’ll be working on the 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio Post-Draft Add-On. This is a .pdf document of 60-70 pages for fantasy owners that includes rankings by position and also across all positions. The post-draft analysis also discusses scheme fit, depth chart projections, fantasy draft analysis, and value scores for each player.

The RSP Post-Draft Add-on comes with purchase of the 2013 RSP. It will be available for download no later than Friday, May 3 but I anticipate it could be available as much as a day or two earlier. I will email all subscribers once it’s available as well as announce it here.

Here are the first six responses I from an email about the RSP-Post Draft minutes after I sent the message:

  • “Great, thanks and awesome work!” – Mark Costanza
  • “Thanks Matt. Appreciate your good work a lot. Big thank you and best regards from Germany” – Deiter Janssen
  • “Thank you so much for the insane amount of work you put into the RSP.” – Corey Tadlock
  • “Big fan here keep doing what you do!!” – Russell Franceschini
  • “It’s been awesome to watch the growth of this project from year to year.  Congratulations.” – David Hamill
  • “Can’t wait!!! And great work BTW” James Tallon

If you have yet to purchase the RSP, I encourage you to do so. In addition to it being a value to you, each purchase allows me to donate 10 percent of the cost to Darkness to Light. D2L combats sexual abuse through training and awareness to community organizations and individuals.

For those of you who have done so – thanks for making this a great year already!

The 2013 RSP “Mocking the Mock”

0 Comments read Walk on the Wild Side
If football were more like the rasslin' she grew up watching with her grandfather, Paulette Mooney would be more interested in doing a full mock draft. Photo by John Jewell.
If football were more like the rasslin’ she grew up watching with her grandfather, Paulette Mooney would be more interested in doing a full mock draft. Photo by John Jewell.

I don’t do mock drafts. I have nothing against them. If I had more time, I’d probably get into them. They’re entertaining. And you can’t get much more entertaining than a Greg Cosell mock, unless of course you get my wife’s commentary layered over top – Paulette Mooney style with a Billy ‘Superstar’ Graham sensibility.

Reader Advisory: If you approach this NFL event as a Holy Day – avoid this sacrilegious piece. Otherwise . . . 

My wife doesn’t watch football much. They outlawed too many of the techniques that she thought were perfectly reasonable:

  • Clotheslines
  • Spearing
  • Headbutts
  • Eye Gouges
  • Horse Collars

You need to understand that my wife grew up in the country and was raised “country strong,” along the lines of Steve McNair. She tore her Achilles’ in January and ditched the crutches the next day and the walking boot the day after. She’s tired of hearing about “poor Kobe Bryant” because she’s already walking in heels and beginning an exercise regimen. The orthopedist asked if he could write something about her – I’m not kidding.

This is the mentality of a woman who grew up with a grandfather who worked at a sawmill most of his life and a social worker grandmother (think a more sophisticated and urbane Madea from Tyler Perry) who was given all the “hard cases” to straighten out. Farm life, fixing houses, and trying to avoid her grandfather’s tonic of lemon juice and moonshine when she got sick made her country strong. It’s the best I can explain about a woman who ran a 11.2-second, 100 and has a 19-foot long jump to her credit when her ‘warm up’ consisted of a pre-event cigarette.

Jene Bramel calls my wife Paulette Mooney, because much of her commentary veers into the realm of Paul Mooney’s comedy. Now that you understand a little about Paulette Mooney, here’s what went down when I explained a mock draft using Greg Cosell’s as an example.

I could only keep her attention for the first 18 picks before she was off to re-flooring the kitchen and re-facing kitchen cabinets. But if you know her – that’s an impressive number.

1. Kansas City Chiefs – Central Michigan Offensive Tackle, Eric Fisher:

Paulette stares at the photo of Fisher at the top of the Cosell article.

“Is that him? He looks like he could take out a tree – and he’d enjoy it . . . Oh my God, you know all those Army-Navy commercials to brainwash all the kids to join? [She begins to sing] Be proud, be strong . . . maybe it’s just the jersey with all those stars on it messing with me.”

“He’s fast, too,” I tell her.

Paulette rolls her eyes and responds with her best imitation of a sports anchor talking about Robert Griffin.

“Is he articulate, too? I bet he has such a good speaking voice – like Obama.”

My real take on Eric Fisher

Paulette agrees with Joeckel's dad. Photo by Zennie Abraham.
Paulette agrees with Joeckel’s dad. Photo by Zennie Abraham.

2. Jacksonville Jaguars – Texas A&M Offensive Tackle, Luke Joeckel:

Paulette squints at the name and makes a face.

“That’s a trailer park last name. Sounds like a guy I’d watch on ‘My Name is Earl’. I love that show. But he looks like he’s too nice”

“His dad once told him that he could be as nice as he wanted off the field, but to be mean on it.”

“I’m with pops on that philosophy . . . “

“I know – I’m already trying to figure out a way to keep us from getting banned from high school games if we have a son who plays.”

3. Oakland Raiders – Florida Defensive Tackle, Shariff Floyd: 

“Defensive tackle?”

“Yeah, they’re also often called ‘Nose Tackles’ they play across from the guy snapping the ball . . . “

“You mean you can go for people’s noses? I like that . . . ‘Sharrif,’ that’s a city name from up north.”

“Good guess. He’s from Philly – we really need to enter you into a contest.”

Paulette takes a look at Floyd’s highlights on YouTube.

“Some ugly uniforms . . .”

“When it comes to being a resident of Athens, there’s some hope for you yet.”

“He can manhandle some folks though. He and that Fisher guy are some corn-fed boys. You want some con-fed mother&%*@!$%.”

4. Philadelphia Eagles – Oregon Outside Linebacker Dion Jordan:

[youtube=http://youtu.be/FzQBOBoPg04]

“Dion? You gotta be strong to be a dude name ‘Dion’,” Paulette laughs and begins singing. “What do you get when you fall in love . . .”

“That’ ain’t right.”

Paulette looks at highlights of Jordan sacking Brock Osweiler last year.

“Who is that team in black?”

“Arizona State”

“They look like a S.W.A.T. team gone bad.”

“Remember that article I had to write that kept us from going to that Barry Manilow concert you wanted to see? [Editor’s note: Thank you, Football Outsiders]“

“Yeah. . . now I don’t like him. He’s smooth though . . .who was the other guy you had in that article?”

“Barkevious Mingo.”

“Unnhhh. Is he in this mock?”

“Yep.”

“Alright then . . . I got something to say about him and his mom, later.”

My real take on Dion Jordan

5. Detroit Lions – Oklahoma Offensive Tackle Lane Johnson:

“Well, thanks to his mom, he’ll get job with that name once he blows his Achilles’ tendon.”

“Lane? Really, you like that name?”

“That’s a nice name. That’s a dude I’d call if I got a speeding ticket.”

“Why?”

“It sounds professional, but kind of shady – just shady enough that he’ll get you off.”

Eifert and Ike Turner? Only with Paulette Mooney. Photo by Neon Tommy.
Eifert and Ike Turner? Only with Paulette Mooney. Photo by Neon Tommy.

6. Cleveland Browns – Notre Dame Tight End Tyler Eifert:

Paulette bursts into laughter.

“Who came up with the name ‘Tight end’?”

“Players who caught passes and were positioned at the end of the line were called ‘ends.’ The ones further away were ‘split’ from the formation and called ‘split ends’ the ones ‘tight’ to the line . . . “

“There’s nothing right about that name for a position – whether you’re a boy or a girl. And Tyler Eifert? What kind of name is that? All I can think about is Ike Turner saying, ‘Anna Mae!!!'”

“What?”

“I just see Ike whipping Tina’s ass in the back of a limo – I know that’s not funny, but in hindsight it kind of is now that you see Tina getting the last laugh. You know, that Eifert must have some kind of game because if Ike fooled Anna Mae this guy must be the same deal in football terms – a sneaky ass whooper.”

“Well, if any analytics guys read what you just said, they’ll probably say it’s proof positive that they don’t need me to ‘eyeball’ players.’

“Anal-lytics? Tight Ends? Wide Receivers?”

“Yep.”

Paulette collapses onto the coach and curls into the fetal position. Her body is shaking as she muffles the laughter into a pillow.

My real take on Tyler Eifert

7. Arizona Cardinals – West Virginia Wide Receiver, Tavon Austin:

“Tavon Austin.  He’s short isn’t he?”

“If he’s picked here, he’ll be the shortest player ever picked this high.”

“Is he related to Spud Webb – that’s my boy. Even if he played at Wake. That’s all I’ve got to say about Tavon”

My real take on Tavon Austin

Who needs analytics or scouting if you can just tell what he does by his first name? Photo by Crawford Orthodontics.
Who needs analytics or scouting if you can just tell what he does by his first name? Photo by Crawford Orthodontics.

8. Buffalo Bills, Outside Linebacker Barkevious Mingo:

“I bet he’s fast.”

“Why?”

“With that name he did a lot of running as a kid.”

“Oh Lord . . .”

“Tell his momma she needs to call me. We need to have a chat about resumes. How’s he gonna get paid outside of football with a name like that?”

“If he’s one of the [seemingly 5 percent] of NFL players who gets his finances right, he won’t need to. Check this out.”

[youtube=http://youtu.be/260jraqaArs]

“I LIKE him. He’s throwin’ people down and causing fights! That’s how a man gets paid! He has Taye Diggs’ teeth . . .can we fix him up with our daughter?”

“No.”

“Why not? “

“She has a boyfriend.”

“But he can’t even beat her in fantasy football.”

My real take on Barkevious Mingo

9. New York Jets – North Carolina Offensive Guard Jonathan Cooper:

“You’re a rising senior. Stay in school; get your paper.”

“But he’s really good. He stands to make a ton of money.”

“The other paper will still be waiting on you,” she says while looking at the highlights and commenting about the stupidity of long hair in football. “With a college degree he’ll be fine. If he gets hurt in the NFL he won’t get no money either.”

My real take on Jonathan Cooper

10. Tennessee Titans – Alabama Offensive Guard Chance Warmack:

“He’s a trailer boy, but his parents gave him a real name – good for him.”

Paulette guessed the UGA guys by their names. It's an intuitive thing. Photo by C. Vogle.
Paulette guessed the UGA guys by their names. It’s an intuitive thing. Photo by C. Vogle.

11. San Diego Chargers – Georgia Linebacker Alec Ogletree:

“All I can think of is Oglethorpe Street here in town.”

“Well he did play here in town.”

“Really? He’s one of our local kids? Why is he wearing a flag? This isn’t flag football? Georgia is always confusing me.”

My real take on Alec Ogletree

12. Miami Dolphins – Houston Cornerback D.J. Hayden

“Wait a minute, isn’t that who they’re talking about on TV?” Paulette watches Mike Mayock and Paul Burmeister hosting a mock draft on NFL Network.”That blond guy is about a second away from whistling through his teeth every time he uses a word with an ‘s’. A little distracting.”

“I hadn’t noticed.”

“Look at my husband trying to be nice. Good thing there’s no NFL team called the Sioux City-City Slickers. Every dog in a two-mile radius of a sports bar might come running. D.J. Hayden . . . what’s this about an island on the football field. There’s no island”

“Long story.”

“D.J. . . . Dee-Jay . . . All I can think of is this rap song from the 80s where the woman says ‘Dee-Jay please pick up the phone on the request line . . .’

“I knew there’d be an `80s reference dropped somewhere in here.”

“You know it!”

13. Pittsburgh Steelers – Georgia Outside Linebacker Jarvis Jones

“I like that name. It sounds like a Georgia name.”

“Why? [She’s right again]”

“Sounds homey and warm. He’s from some place like Illa – some place nobody ever heard of . . .”

“He plays here in town. I think he is an in-state guy,” I look it up and sure enough, Richland, Georgia.

“Richland? Have you heard of it?

“I’ve lived here all my life and never heard of it.”

Paulette watches some tape of Jones and points to the screen.

“I like sacks. Does he do that a lot?”

“Yep.”

“That’s all I need to know.”

14. Carolina Panthers – Missouri Defensive Tackle Sheldon Richardson:

What’s his major? Chemistry?

“Why? His name?”

“Yeah. Sounds like anything, but ‘Sharrif’.”

“Agriculture?”

“And he’s not finishing?” Paulette looks at the highlights. “Yeah . . . he’s gone.”

15. New Orleans Saints – Utah Defensive Tackle Star Lotulelei”

“He’s one of them corn-fed guys. Do they have corn in Hawaii?”

“He’s Samoan. I guess this talent for names only applies to the continental U.S”

“I like him. He can tear people up.”

My real take on Star Lotulelei

All he needs is Whoppers. Photo by Mike Pettigano.
All he needs is Whoppers. Photo by Mike Pettigano.

16. St. Louis Rams – Alabama Running Back Eddie Lacy:

“That’s my dog.”

“I know, you liked him over the North Carolina guy [Giovani Bernard]”

“You can’t tell me people that . . . nah, you can tell ’em. North Carolina is a basketball school. But that football program is getting better.”

“You know Lacy was out of shape and couldn’t finish his workouts.”

“He’s been eating too much of that supposed, ‘nutritious’ food. He needs some fat back and greens from the farm.”

“Like he needs a heart attack.”

“Just stay off Eddie and that work-out.  He’ll be fine. What’s his address? I’m going to send him some Whoppers with Cheese.”

My real take on Eddie Lacy

17. Pittsburgh Steelers – Alabama Cornerback Dee Milliner:

“Cornerback? They cover the wide recei – ” Paulette erupts into laughter.

My real take on Dee Milliner

18. Dallas Cowboys – Texas Safety Kenny Vaccaro:

“I like the name ‘Vaccaro’. Kennnaaaay . . . VaCCARRRRROOOO. I bet he has the Rico Suave thing happening. Is he covering wide ends, too?”

“No but tight ones.”

Paulette breaks into rhyme:

So please don’t judge a book by its cover
There’s more to being a latin lover
You got to know how to deal with a woman
That won’t let go
The price you pay for being a gigolo

Because he’s Kennnaaayy Vaccarrrrooo.

My real take on Kenny Vaccaro And yes, she really likes that song and likes his game.

Til next year . . .

[youtube=http://youtu.be/Nx64_N4AA04]

For (non-Paulette Mooney) analysis of skill players in this year’s draft class, download the 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio available now. Better yet, if you’re a fantasy owner the 56-page Post-Draft Add-on comes with the 2013 RSP at no additional charge and available for download within a week after the NFL Draft. Best, yet, 10 percent of every sale is donated to Darkness to Light to combat sexual abuse. You can purchase past editions of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio for just $9.95 apiece.

Why Buy the RSP?

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A 261-page online publication that provides 1029 pages of play-by-play notes from my evaluation database and 10 percent of your purchase is donated to fight sexual abuse.
A 261-page online publication that provides 1029 pages of play-by-play notes from my evaluation database and 10 percent of your purchase is donated to fight sexual abuse.

Never heard of the RSP? Your first time considering it? Find out why the most common thing I hear from new readers is that this publication dedicated to the study of offensive skill players exceeds expectations with most new readers and has built a loyal following. Hard not to do when you get a pre-draft publication, a post-draft update, and 10 percent of each sale is donated to combat and prevent sexual abuse. See below.

BTW – Best pre-draft scouting report on every conceivable guy [at the skills positions] is by @MattWaldman. Very good read – mattwaldman.com

–Chris Brown, author of Smartfootball.com and Grantland contributor, via Twitter

Q: What is the purpose of the RSP?

The RSP isn’t a draft-prediction publication, it’s an analysis of talent based on a player performance on the field.  This can help draftniks learn more about the talent of players without worrying about the machinations of the draft that are often an entirely different animal from talent evaluation. The evaluation techniques for the RSP are designed to target a player’s athletic skills, positional techniques, and conceptual understanding of the game. It also makes a great resource for fantasy football players.

Q: What makes the RSP different from other draft analysis?

The Rookie Scouting Portfolio is the best guide to the QB, RB, WR, and TE talents in the draft because it goes deeper than any other guide. Because Matt shows his math with hundreds of intensely detailed individual game breakdowns. Because it ranks prospects not just overall, but for each attribute. Because if you read between the lines, Matt is teaching you how to scout these positions, what to look for, how to articulate what you see. It’s a must for any serious football fan, fantasy football player, or anyone that wants to get smarter about watching football.

-Sigmund Bloom, Footballguys co-owner, B/R Draft Analyst, and “On the Couch” host.

I use an extensively documented process and I make the work available for the reader to see – although I don’t send them through a forced death march through the material. As a reader, you don’t have to feel the pain I had writing it – the masochism is provided at your convenience.

Still, the process is important to talk about. It has helped me arrive at high pre-draft grades for many underrated players, including Russell Wilson, Matt Forte, Ahmad Bradshaw, Dennis Pitta, Arian Foster and Joseph Addai. Where it really makes a difference is when I’m studying a player in a game where the competition limits a player’s statistical success and I’m still able to see the talent shine through. Likewise, this process has helped me spot critical issues with players like Stephen Hill, Isaiah Pead, Matt Leinart, Robert Meachem, and C.J. Spiller when others anticipated an early, and often immediate, impact.  

Q: How is The Rookie Scouting Portfolio rooted in best practices?

I managed a large branch of a call center and eventually had responsibility for the performance evaluation of over 70 call centers around the U.S. I began my career from the bottom-up. I was heavily involved in recruiting, hiring, training, and developing large and small teams of employees.I often had to build large teams that competed with a client’s internal call enter and with a fraction of the budget to train and develop in terms of time and money.

We beat them consistently.

One of the biggest reasons was a focus on instituting quality processes. We figured out what was important to us, how to prioritize it’s importance, and how to evaluate our employs in a fair, consistent, and flexible manner to spot the good and bad. Eventually, my company sent me to an organization that provided training for best-practice performance techniques that successful Fortune 500 businesses tailored to their service and manufacturing sectors.

The most important thing I learned that applies to the RSP is best practices for monitoring performance. Although the original purpose for my training was to monitor representatives talking with customers over the phone, these techniques also made sense to apply to personnel evaluation in other ways. Football is one of them.

Think the NFL couldn’t use a best-practice approach? Read about its current evaluation system and what former scouts have to say about the management of that process and you’ll think differently. The RSP approach makes the evaluation process transparent to the reader and helps the author deliver quality analysis.

Another “best practice” I’m implementing in 2013 is “giving back.” Ten percent of each sale in 2013 is going to charity.

Q: The RSP is huge, but you say it is easy to read and navigate. How is it structure? Is it iPad-friendly?

The easiest way to describe the RSP is that it’s an online publication with two main parts:

  • The front part most people read, which is the same length of any draft magazine you see at the newsstand.
  • The back part that my craziest, most devoted, and masochistic readers check out – all the play-by-play analysis of every player I watch.

The RSP has a menu that allows you to jump to various parts of the publication so the crazy detail in the back doesn’t swallow you whole and you never return to reality. I continue to provide the back part because many of my readers love to know that I back up my analysis with painstaking work. In that sense they are also sadists, but being the ultimate masochist that I am – I appreciate their sadism.

“The GoodReader app takes anything I want to read in PDF form, presents it very nicely, and makes the document portable and enjoyable. The encyclopedia that you’ve created (which I absolutely love 25% into it) would require someone to peer into his or her computer/laptop screen for a very long time. On an iPad inside that app it bookmarks your place and makes reading long files a joy…AND PORTABLE.”

-Ray Calder

Q: I heard the RSP gives back to charity. How? 

Beginning in 2012, I started donating 10 percent of every Rookie Scouting Portfolio purchase to charity. This is something I have wanted to do for a long time. Once the Penn State scandal broke, I decided to send the funds to the program Darkness to Light.

Darkness to Light – Excerpt from their mission statement: “Darkness to Light is a national organization and initiative. Our mission is to empower people to prevent child sexual abuse. Darkness to Light’s public awareness campaign seeks to raise awareness of the prevalence and consequences of child sexual abuse.”

Q: What do readers think of the RSP?

I collect these emails like one of my favorite pizza joints in Colorado collects napkin drawings from customers and places them all over the walls of its restaurant. If you have one you want to send me, please feel free. I’ll add them my list. Here are some of them below:

“If you don’t buy the RSP, be prepared to get dominated in your rookie draft by someone that did.”

– Jarrett Behar, Staff writer for Dynasty League Football and creator of Race to the Bottom.

“In complete awe of the 2007 Rookie Scouting Portfolio via @MattWaldman — Incredibly in-depth analysis that required time & football smarts”

– Ryan Lownes, Draftnik (with strong online analysis in his own right)

Any diehard #Dynasty #fantasyfootball fan should go get @MattWaldman’s Rookie Scouting Portfolio bit.ly/I4fOa2 You’ll thank me later

-@JamesFFBNFL Draft analyst, enthusiast, and writer for DraftBreakdown.com and Bleacher Report.

“For someone like me who doesn’t closely follow the college game, there is nothing I have found even vaguely measuring up to your thoroughness and point by point analysis of the draftable rookies. Among my favorite things is that at the core you rely on play rather than comparing stats produced or combine numbers. Measurables I can get anywhere, but numbers offer little perspective on what they mean or what factors together created them. I want to know what a guy looks like out there, who plays fast – rather than who runs fast in shorts with no one to dodge or avoid. Which WRs can and can’t run routes or consistently get separation or catch with their hands or fight off defenders to make contested catches. Your exhaustive package gives me a basis to work from including a careful look at every significant player. I can read and add the views and comments and stats I want to like ornaments on the Christmas tree – where that tree is the foundation of player abilities that you weave together into a ranked whole.

I have no way to know how right or wrong your conclusions are. You certainly don’t shy away from controversial evaluations. But overall, for just plain understanding of who the rookies are, how they play and what we might expect in the NFL – I don’t know of anything close. After reading this tome, I would feel blind and naked walking into a rookie draft next year without having that insight. My huge thanks!”

–Catbird, Footballguys.com message boards

“Love your work. I’ve subscribed to your RSP for the past 3 years and it is my bible for dynasty league rookie drafts.”

– David Liu

“In our business, we are able to access many different types of reference materials. The Rookie Scouting Portfolio stands above the rest for one simple fact: it is more comprehensive than anything else I have seen. Matt Waldman is head and shoulders the best fantasy football expert I have had on the air, and his expertise starts well before the players get to the NFL with analysis and game film study of the incoming rookie class. I can’t recommend the RSP highly enough.”

– Ian Furness
Host, Sports Radio 950 KJR
Seattle, WA

“All I can really say at first is “Wow!” There is just a TON of great and useful information packed into that report. I thought I’d give it a quick glance during my lunch hour and I found myself reading quite a bit of it over the next 2 hours. I like the way everything is laid out. It’s easy to understand and covers all the items necessary to make it a top notch scouting report for the fantasy footballer.

– Tim Huckaby

“IMHO this is a MUST read. Matt really does the work and tells it the way he sees it. Had a couple of GREAT picks this year with Austin Collie and and I think Stafford. In prior years, he has lead me to Ray Rice in a PPR no less and Mike Sims Walker… If you are like me in a Zealots league, go back and read the prior years as it helps with the RFA/UFA process.”

– Tony Madeira

Hey Matt,

Just thought you would want to know that I enjoyed the 2012 Rookie Scouting Portfolio so much that I had to buy the other six years, to see what you had to say about previous players. I’ve been playing fantasy football for over 20 years (started at age 11) and I can’t tell you how refreshing it is to see someone put this much effort into analyzing prospects skills, and then filtering that info back to their potential fantasy value.

Not sure if you have a running testimonial page but if your ever inclined to do so, feel free to use this email as one, if you wish.

Not trying to kiss your butt or anything but your work is really an inspiration for someone like myself.

thank you for your efforts,

Sean Douglas, FantasyInfo.com’

Download the 2013 RSP or purchase past issues (2006-2012)

 

Boiler Room: Michigan State RB Le’Veon Bell

0 Comments read Players, Reads Listens Views, RSP Boiler Room Videos (Short Form), Running Back
This piece on Bell is unlikely to convince you to change your opinion of him, but it does underscore why teams will be forced to make a decision and stand by it. Photo by Matt Radickal.
This piece on Bell is unlikely to convince you to change your opinion of him, but it does underscore why teams will be forced to make a decision and stand by it. Photo by Matt Radickal.

A polarizing player in the draft community engenders endless debate – even after we see that player on an NFL field. If he succeeds his backers believe that the detractors over analyzed the situation. If the prospect struggles the  naysayers will claim the backers didn’t see enough. In this sense Le’Veon Bell is a polarizing player in this draft.

The Boiler Room series is designed to be succinct with delivering the goods about a player. As the author of an annual tome, I’m often a spectacular failure in this respect.

Even so, I will study a prospect and see a play unfold that does a great job of encapsulating that player’s skills. When I witness these moments, I try to imagine if I would include this play as part of a cut-up of highlights for a draft show at a major network or if I was working for an NFL organization creating cut-ups for a personnel director. Unlike the No-Huddle Series, The Boiler Room is focused on prospects I expect to be drafted, and often before the fourth round.

It’s incredibly difficult to boil down any player with just one play – especially when a player invokes a major difference of opinion. Yet, if I need a play to add to the highlight reel that will help a team make a decision where to slot Le’Veon Bell on its board, I have a nomination – in this case, I have three. These plays demonstrate Bell’s, strength, burst, quickness, and agility – but do they show enough to settle the debate about Bell’s quickness?

This run against Minnesota is a beautiful combination of moves that rival any Madden video game replay.

[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jyflNp4qTO8?start=27rel=0&w=560&h=315]

Bell slides inside the double team from his tackle and tight end and takes two steps to set up a spin move inside a block at the hash, and then a step and plant to spin outside. I doubt Bell will be able to replicate this play again in his career, because I think it’s a product of his ability, the play, and the defense, but he is the first back I’ve seen execute a combo of inside and outside spins in this proximity of each other in quite a while and that counts for something.

Comment on the size of the hole, the blocking, and the defense all you want, but Bell’s spins were tight, quick, and balanced. He also kept his footing to gained 10 yards after the second spin. If Bell can demonstrate this kind of skill in the NFL, he’ll be a lead back whose only limitations will be his development in the passing game.

Bell’s supporters point to a powerful, 6’1″,230-lb. runner who has the frame to rival Ronnie Brown, but detractors see him as a sluggish player who only does good work through wide creases so he can build momentum and bully defenders after contact. The play above began with a wide crease. So does this one below.

[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ceZo8Vf7fnc?start=12rel=0&w=560&h=315]

The reads on this gap style play were straight forward and the blocking opened a huge backside crease to the inside, which Bell hits hard and gets down hill. I like the burst I see here, but his detractors may say the acceleration is deceptive due to the width of the hole.

Those who believe in Combine measurements will say that Bell’s 6.75-second, three-cone time was faster than Doug Martin and Stevan Ridley and the same as Jahvid Best, a back 31 pounds lighter. If LaGarrette Blount could pass protect and be a good citizen, there might not have been a need for a running back in Tampa Bay last year and Blount had much slower agility times than Bell. I thought Blount was quick enough. I haven’t seen anything to dissuade me about Bell’s athleticism.

I think the most balanced criticism I’ve heard is that Bell makes too many decisions like a scat back. They say if Bell can mature enough to temper his use of spin moves, hurdles, and reversals of field and only use them as a change-up to a powerful, downhill style, he has a chance to become a valuable starter.

This play below is a good demonstration of the power Bell flashes when he keeps it simple.

[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ceZo8Vf7fnc?start=55rel=0&w=560&h=315]

Good blocking to the edge, but Bell is fast enough to exploit it and also strong enough to push the pile for extra yards. The pad level and leg drive  are positives here. If Bell can show more often when and when not to use the skills you’ve seen from all three highlights, then he’ll have a productive NFL career.

These plays won’t settle any debates. If you believe these plays are a product of his line and inferior competition then you won’t view Bell as one of the better running back prospects in this draft. If you believe Bell will have the quickness to execute these plays consistently in the NFL then you think the Spartans runner is an underrated commodity who belongs near the top-tier of runners.

For analysis of skill players in this year’s draft class, download the 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio available now. Better yet, if you’re a fantasy owner the 56-page Post-Draft Add-on comes with the 2013 RSP at no additional charge and available for download within a week after the NFL Draft. Best, yet, 10 percent of every sale is donated to Darkness to Light to combat sexual abuse. You can purchase past editions of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio for just $9.95 apiece.

Boiler Room Series: USC WR Robert Woods

0 Comments read Players, RSP Boiler Room Videos (Short Form), Wide Receiver
Woods game has a quiet intensity. See below.
Woods game has a quiet intensity. See below.

Compared to his peers in this 2013 wide receiver draft class, Robert Woods has a “quiet game.” The USC Trojan is an average-sized receiver with good quickness, but his measurements as an athlete is nothing special. Yet, Woods is one of the best prospects at his position – a wide receiver class that I contend is a deep one.

I think where we often miss with prospect evaluation – whether you’re a scout, media, proponent of data mining/analytics , or a fan – is the notion that stronger-faster-quicker-taller is better. I have been gradually arriving at the perspective that Combine measurements are best used as a baseline: Does the player have the minimum strength-speed-quickness-size to compete in the NFL?

The level of these qualities only come into play once you can feel comfortable with the conceptual and technical promise of this player at his position. Otherwise, you just have a tall, strong, fast, and quick player trying to play his position and failing in dramatic fashion.

Robert Woods may have a quiet game as an athlete but just like music, some of the most stirring moments are the quietest.

A series I started this year at the RSP blog is The Boiler Room. One of the challenges involved with player analysis is to be succinct with delivering the goods. As the author of an annual tome, I’m often a spectacular failure in this respect.

Even so, I will study a prospect and see a play unfold that does a great job of encapsulating that player’s skills. When I witness these moments, I try to imagine if I would include this play as part of a cut-up of highlights for a draft show at a major network or if I was working for an NFL organization creating cut-ups for a personnel director. Unlike the No-Huddle Series, The Boiler Room is focused on prospects I expect to be drafted, and often before the fourth round.

It’s incredibly difficult to boil down any player with just one play. Yet, if I need a play to add to the highlight reel that will help a team make a decision where to slot Robert Woods on its board, this is my nomination. Watch just the first five seconds and pause it.

[youtube=http://youtu.be/TiihTyOR9VU]

At first glance, this is garden-variety hitch under a defender’s cushion, which Woods breaks in conjunction with Matt Barkley’s throw based on a presnap read of the defender’s position. Woods does a good job driving off the line with his pads over his knees to force the cornerback to account for a deeper route before the receiver stops his route well under the defender at the first-down marker. The makes the catch falling towards the boundary after taking a hit from the defender.

It’s a good play, but it’s quietly a far more impressive display of athleticism than a tape measure or stopwatch can capture.

WoodsA1

Woods takes an outside release and drives off the line as the cornerback peeks into the backfield. Woods stops and turns back to the quarterback once he gets depth beyond the first-down marker, but he could have made a more dramatic change of direction by sinking his hips and making a more violent plant of the front leg at the top of his stem.

WoodsA2

Although his break isn’t one that will earn high marks from the Russian, Chinese, Japanese, French, British, Polish-Philadelphian (Jaworski), or the Fort Lauderdale (Irvin) judges, playing wide receiver is only like figure skating in the respect that both range of athlete own their share of drama. In football, there are times where it doesn’t matter if technique is sloppy; if the job gets done then everybody is happy.

WoodsA3

Woods makes his break and rather than breaking to the ball, he retreats a step to the sideline. If Matt Barkley intends to throw the ball to Woods’ outside shoulder, this is an effective break to gain horizontal separation on the corner and maintain the depth of his route.

WoodsA4

I may not love his body positioning as he waits for the ball, but a common thing Woods does well is get his shoulders square to the ball and his hands away from his body to make the catch. I believe many coaches would prefer to see Woods attack this ball from his break rather than wait for it so he can avoid any possibility of the corner jumping the route. In this case, Woods’ body does not provide a good barrier to the football if the corner got a better jump.

Another common aspect to Woods’ game as a pass catcher is that he’ll often make a slight adjustment as he makes the catch to turn his body to shield the defender as he’s making the reception.

WoodsA5

WoodsA6

Just before Woods gets hit, the receiver turns his hip towards the oncoming defender. The contact from the defender is hard enough that Woods cannot secure the ball to his chest. This is where the first angle of the video doesn’t reveal the difficulty of this reception.

WoodsA7

As Woods falls towards the sideline, he manages to plant his left arm on the ground while holding the ball behind his head.

WoodsA8

Woods finishes the play with his right arm pinning the ball behind his head, turning to the side to maintain possession of the ball. Also note the side that Woods turns to after he hits the ground.

WoodsA9

Why would Woods turn to this side? Was it luck or quick thinking? I believe Woods turned to this side because if he turned to the opposite gravity sends the ball away from his finger tips and if he loses his grip there’s nothing else he can do to secure the ball. But the direction Woods turns allows him to us his forearm as support if the ball has any movement before he reaches the sideline. He also does a good job of producing the ball with control after the catch to sell the reception.

WoodsA10

Some of you may note that if the ball moves in the NFL at this point, it’s not a catch. This is true, but the fact that Woods reacts this quickly and intelligently to an unusual situation is something we commonly see with good NFL starters and I would advise not to write it off as luck.

This play alone is not an indicator of Woods becoming a good NFL starter, but you know I have trouble just showing one play – take a look at this highlight package of plays as a freshman against Stanford. Many of them are against No.9 – a cornerback by the name of Richard Sherman.

[youtube=http://youtu.be/JGDr-e3E_iE]

There are enough plays like this one from the Boiler Room and games like the YouTube package above that Woods’ portfolio shows a knack for making adjustments in tight coverage. Plays like these are more routine for starters in the professional ranks. Woods’ hand-eye coordination, spatial awareness, and comfort with physical play may not broadcast at a high volume, but the intensity of the message is as strong as any receiver in this class.

For analysis of skill players in this year’s draft class, download the 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio available April 1. Prepayment is available now. Better yet, if you’re a fantasy owner the 56-page Post-Draft Add-on comes with the 2013 RSP at no additional charge a week after the NFL Draft. Best, yet, 10 percent of every sale is donated to Darkness to Light to combat sexual abuse. You can purchase past editions of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio for just $9.95 apiece.

Reads Listens Views 4/19/2013

0 Comments read Reads Listens Views
If Davis can hold onto the ball after the catch as well as he holds onto after contact in the act of the reception, he could have a nice NFL career. Photo by Go Iowa State.
Coming this weekend – a No-Huddle edition featuring Iowa WR Keenan Davis. A better prospect than you may think. Photo by Go Iowa State.

More draft analysis on the way from RSPHQ – including more from the No-Huddle Series and Boiler Room and my take on Cordarrelle Patterson from the perspective of Football Outsiders and its Playmaker Score. If you’re new to the RSP blog, welcome to my Friday post Reads Listens Views, my chance to share things I’ve been checking out in recent weeks – football and non-football alike.

Listens

Joseph Tawadros plays the Oud, which is the daddy of the Lute. It’s a beautiful, soulful instrument and this tune is has a steady simmer worth a listen.

[youtube=http://youtu.be/aND8DYDfXQU]

Thank You

I think we’ve all been in a situation where you have the ability to help a friend, but you don’t think he wants your assistance. However, it’s obvious that you’d be just the person to help and he never utters a peep to indicate he wants it. Sigmund Bloom had that experience with me in recent years. He kidded me recently about me never asking him to write anything to tell my readers why they should buy the RSP.

I was embarrassed. I just figured most folks knew Bloom as my friend and colleague so it made more sense to share testimonials from folks who, relative to Bloom, don’t know me from Adam. But I am honored that Bloom wants to share his view of the RSP. Especially when he publishes an always excellent collection of Scouting Reports and rankings. There’s his great work at B/R and the iconic, Bloom 100. If you’re a fantasy owner, the Bloom 100 is a MUST-READ because its writer distills each class into a simple list of tiers with a rookie draft in mind. It takes a strong grasp of player talent and fantasy football dynamics to pull off as well as Bloom.

Here’s Bloom’s thoughts on the RSP and I’d like to thank him for asking me to share it:

The Rookie Scouting Portfolio is the best guide to the QB, RB, WR, and TE talents in the draft because it goes deeper than any other guide. Because Matt shows his math with hundreds of intensely detailed individual game breakdowns. Because it ranks prospects not just overall, but for each attribute. Because if you read between the lines, Matt is teaching you how to scout these positions, what to look for, how to articulate what you see. It’s a must for any serious football fan, fantasy football player, or anyone that wants to get smarter about watching football.

If you haven’t bought the RSP before, I can say with pride that you’ll get as much out of it as I put into it – and I put everything I can into it. My readers will tell you they love it. If you’re on fence, I am confident that you’ll realize this is one of those cases where there’s little hype to what I’m saying here. Plus, I donate 10 percent of each sale to Darkness to Light, a non-profit whose mission is to prevent and combat sexual abuse through community training and awareness.

Download the RSP now and know that with your purchase, you also get access to the Post-Draft publication when I announce it available within the week after the NFL Draft. At the very least, follow this blog click on the link on the left to follow and you’ll receive email updates when I post new articles. Then consider supporting the site (and do yourself a favor at the same time) by downloading the publication.

Views

Mine Kafon – Thanks to Jeff Haseley for sharing this invention, which is a sobering reminder that we’re all special people and special people are dying everyday around the world due to explosives.

Football Reads

Listens

The Dave Holland Quintet is one of the best bands in music today. They are at the top of my list of groups to see.

[youtube=http://youtu.be/E2qIZ-BwiE4]

Non-Football Reads

  • Serenity Amidst A Sea Of Haze – Adrian Landin is a world traveler and blogger of his experiences who sometimes hits me up for fantasy advice when Internet is available. Landin’s blog is a collection of excellent photography. This post is about witnessing 12,999 Buddhist monks walking the main street in a city in Thailand. I think what he captures is worth sharing. Especially if you need 10 minutes to feel transported from your current surroundings.
  • How Quickly the U.S. Got Fat  – It ain’t pretty, but it ain’t over either – we can do something about this one if we choose.
  • The 10-Year Hoodie – One U.S. company’s commitment to make a quality product built to last the way things used to before much of Corporate America went beyond greedy and turned into a virus.
  • Think Those Chemicals Have Been Tested? – Many Americans assume that the chemicals in their shampoos, detergents and other consumer products have been thoroughly tested and proved to be safe. This assumption is wrong.
  • U.S. Practiced Torture after 9-11 – And it put our troops in greater danger.

Futures: Why Scouting Gets a Bum Rap – A Front Office Overhaul

0 Comments read Matt Waldman
It's time to take front offices to the Wood Shed. No beatings though. Photo by Richard Elzey.
It’s time to take front offices to the wood shed. No beatings though. Photo by Richard Elzey.

Scouting gets a bum rap.

“Of course Waldman would say this,” you proclaim. “He’s a scout!”

I may perform the fundamental role of one, but I am not a scout. This elicits laughter from my friend Ryan Riddle. The Bleacher Report columnist who holds Cal’s single season sack record and played with the Raiders, Ravens, and Jets says I have a misplaced sense of honor when it comes to refusing to wear that label.

I prefer talent evaluator, tape watcher, tapehound, or tapehead. My friends – if I have any left since I started doing this work eight years ago – might say ‘Film Hermit’ is the best fit. I’ve never worked for an NFL team, so these names seem more suitable to me. Scouts have responsibilities that I don’t – among them is reporting to management within a company structure.

If you have the chance to learn about the pre-draft process for most NFL teams, scouting is the study of a player’s positive and negative characteristics. It’s also an evaluation of how easy it is to fix the player’s issues and his potential fit within a team system. But based on what former scouts, coaches, and general managers of NFL teams say about the machinations that go into a team’s draft, I am thankful that I am not a scout.

While fans and writers may take the lazy route and blame picks gone wrong on poor scouting, it’s the general manager, coach, and owner who hold the weight of the decision-making power. This is a huge reason why scouting gets a bum rap.

To take it a step further, I’ll advance the popular Bill Parcells analogy of ‘buying the groceries.’ I can spend months in the grocery store and tell you that it has quality cuts of grass-fed steak; a delicious, rosemary batard baked in-house; and every variety of apple found in North America. But if those holding the wallet or cooking the food demand a papaya, I can tell them until I’m blue in the face that if they want a good one, it’s only found in Jamaica and they’re still going to pick an unripe one, take it home, prepare it, and then watch it spoil the meal.

It doesn’t help matters when I have to read Mike Tanier describe draft analysis as a pseudoscience. He’s right for the wrong reasons. Scouting is a craft, not a science. However, teams haven’t made it the same priority to address opportunities to improve scouting the way they have upgraded technology and embraced other forms of analysis.

With all the advances that the NFL has made with equipment, strategy, cap management, and technology, they haven’t done enough to advance the process of talent evaluation. It shouldn’t the sports equivalent of Madam Zora’s, but until teams address the problems, Tanier gets to write entertaining draft pieces at their expense.

I think there is a lot that teams can do to improve their talent evaluation processes. What I will propose here are things I’ve learned from my experience in operations and process improvement. I base my solutions on problems I’ve gleaned in conversations with former scouts, reading and listening to former NFL general managers talk about their past roles, and extensive study of college prospects for the past eight years.

Some of these ideas may be new to the NFL, but I don’t begin to think they are revolutionary in the scope of other industries. I’m sharing these things because it’s too easy to listen to a gray-haired man in a suit on a television network and take what he says as gospel – especially processes that are in fact fundamentally flawed and then perpetuated from generation to generation of football men.

When viewing NFL front offices and how they cope with change, I get the impression that many of them have a buttoned-up, low-risk culture similar in dynamic to Wall Street. It also takes a lot for newer ideas to take hold in an NFL front office as it does for an investment bank to accept “new blood” from a business school lacking a history of established connections with the firm as a personnel pipeline.

Some of what I’ll suggest is not even about new ideas; just better implementation of old concepts. The first point below is a good example where leaders tend to talk the talk better than they walk it.

Read the rest at Football Outsiders.

Reads Listens Views 4/11/2013

0 Comments read Reads Listens Views
No one's path is a straight line - no matter how they spin their story. Photo by Sierrian.
No one’s path is a straight line – no matter how they spin their story. Photo by Sierrian.

Views

Many people think I’m living the dream. I’m often asked how I got into doing what I do. There are a lot more details to this story that you probably wouldn’t believe and I’m not ready to tell. This isn’t Barbara Walters.

The best place to begin is that I came to the realization nine years ago that I was as far away from what I wanted my life to be like as I could get.

I had a reasonably successful career that served me well for many years, but I got into it because like many people in life, I had knots to untie. Some of those knots took a while figure out.  One of them was arriving at the realization that if I could work my ass off and do a good job for other people in something that I didn’t care for, what if I focused on something that mattered to me?

Writing was part of that realization. My first football columns weren’t for anyone in particular. I wrote them as an exercise of self-encouragement – an active, conscious step in the direction I wanted to go and having faith that the Universe would respond in kind.

It did. The first three columns at the bottom of this page where written before I even thought to freelance for a site. In fact, The Gut Check was the column name before it even had a home for me to write it.

Although the opportunity came to me more than I actively looked for it, I took that first step and embraced the equal and opposite force. It hasn’t been easy. It isn’t happening fast enough. And like everyone else, I have bad days, but my life is a lot different now – and the road ahead is worth the adventure.

This isn’t the living the dream lifestyle some believe, but it’s my conscious choice. It’s my passion. And I now understand those who first inspired me in some part of life meant when they said, Don’t go this path unless you can’t do anything else. 

Technically, I could do something else if I had to. But I think I’d be a shell of who I am for a while if forced – possibly until I keeled over. So while I take pride in something like the testimonial you’ll see below, I want to express my appreciation to you for helping to support where I’m heading by reading what I write.

While I’d do it even if no one read what I write – it’s that important to me. To say I have an audience is a special thing.

I’m sharing this because if one of you reading this is out there trying to figure out how to change the direction of your life, I think it’s important to hear someone say that you can do it. Understand that once you make one major change several other changes you didn’t anticipate often accompany it. Be prepared for a marathon rather than a sprint. And be willing to reassess what is important to you often so you don’t gain the world and lose your soul.

Thank You

A 261-page online publication that provides 1029 pages of play-by-play notes from my evaluation database and 10 percent of your purchase is donated to fight sexual abuse.
A 261-page online publication that provides 1029 pages of play-by-play notes from my evaluation database and 10 percent of your purchase is donated to fight sexual abuse.

“BTW – Best pre-draft scouting report on every conceivable guy [at the skills positions] is by @MattWaldman. Very good read – mattwaldman.com”

–Chris Brown, author of Smartfootball.com and Grantland contributor

I learn something every time I read Chris Brown’s work. So when  guy who teaches me things feels good enough about it to share what I do, I’m proud of it.

The Rookie Scouting Portfolio alone isn’t going to help you win your fantasy league. It’s not going to have perfect rankings. And it doesn’t have pretty pictures (yet). However, it makes a winning difference for fantasy football owners in dynasty and re-draft leagues for the past eight yards. It gives you quality information that backs up my assessments. And readers tell me every year that they heard about the RSP, but until they downloaded one they really didn’t know about the RSP.

If you want a comprehensive pre-draft and post-draft guide for one price that gives you rankings, overrated and underrated players, skill breakdowns and ratings for each position, player comparisons, and play-by-play analysis, then look no further.

For those of you who have bought the RSP or buy it every year – thank you.  As I just mentioned, your support makes a tremendous difference my life because it gives me more time to focus on something I love – writing about this game.

If you’re new to the RSP blog, I write this type of post most Friday’s. It’s my chance to link to other fantastic football and non-football content. Most of all it’s a chance to thank you for reading the blog or downloading the 2013 RSP.  Remember, you also get the post-draft update the week after the draft and 10 percent of each sale goes to Darkness to Light, a non-profit that combats and prevents sexual abuse in communities.

If you haven’t bought the RSP before, do yourself a favor. Once you do, you’ll understand why it is becoming a Rite of Football Spring for those who want the goods on skill position players entering the NFL draft.

Views (RSP Demonstration)

The fish is Russell Wilson in the third round of last year’s dynasty drafts, the two with the poles are your competition. What comes next is you with the 2012 RSP . . . (audio NSFW)

[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZcuYjDR2tSg&start=35rel=0&w=560&h=315]

Sometimes a visual helps . . .

Listens – MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference, Starring Football Outsider Aaron Schatz

[youtube=http://youtu.be/wxv3HGV6gok]

Fascinating panel. Worth a listen and coming back to as you have time.

Football Reads

Non-Football Reads

  • A great comic about Mantis Shrimp – They have super powers compared to the rest of the living beings on this planet. 
  • Izakayas – I want to go to one, drink saki and beer, and talk football and life with many of you.
  • Serenity Amidst a Sea of Haze – If you need to some mind travel as a substitute for the real deal, this blog will help.
  • The Beauty of Letter Press – I make a lot of my living writing for print and the Internet. Some of my Web brethren take a dismissive tone with the state of print publishing. I say respect and honor what came before you.

Listens

[youtube=http://youtu.be/uOo8QoJEE6I]

Beautiful and sad music. Life is sometimes this way. Nothing wrong with embracing that on occasion.

Boiler Room: Geno Smith and Gradkowski Tangent

0 Comments read Players, Quarterback, RSP Boiler Room Videos (Short Form)
Geno Smith reminds me of Tony Romo. I see it, but I also see the other players on that spectrum of style. See below. Photo by Football Schedule.
Geno Smith reminds many of Tony Romo. I see it, but I also see the other players on that spectrum of style. See below. Photo by Football Schedule.

Geno Smith may not be a quarterback I’m super-excited about as an NFL prospect, but it doesn’t mean he won’t develop into a decent starter. Smith’s game travels to the Boiler Room where I distill what makes him a solid prospect at the position, including a tangent about a player who belongs in the family of quarterbacking styles where Smith resides – Bruce Gradkowski.

A series I started this year at the RSP blog is The Boiler Room. One of the challenges involved with player analysis is to be succinct with delivering the goods. As the author of an annual tome, I’m often a spectacular failure in this respect.

Even so, I will study a prospect and see a play unfold that does a great job of encapsulating that player’s skills. When I witness these moments, I try to imagine if I would include this play as part of a cut-up of highlights for a draft show at a major network or if I was working for an NFL organization creating cut-ups for a personnel director. Unlike the No-Huddle Series, The Boiler Room is focused on prospects I expect to be drafted, and often before the fourth round.

It’s incredibly difficult to boil down any player with just one play, much less a quarterback. Yet, if I need a play to add to the highlight reel that will help a team make a decision where to slot Geno Smith on its board, this is my nomination. Actually, I’m breaking my own rule and supplying two for Smith. Both plays are displays of pocket presence.

The Gradkowski Tangent

Before I do, I’m leading off this Boiler Room installment with a quarterback who I believe fits in the Tony Romo-Rich Gannon spectrum of quarterbacks where I would place Smith in terms of his playing style. If you’ve read my work at this blog long enough then you know I place great value on a quarterback’s skill to maneuver a pocket. A quarterback can have all the physical tools and accuracy to become an NFL superstar, but if he lacks the feel for the pocket and the mental and physical discipline to make the subtle adjustments in tight quarters to avoid the rush and stay prepared to throw the ball then the gloss of his promise is not as bright in my eyes.

Likewise, if the passer lacks the plus-arm but commands the pocket even as its walls are crumbling at his feet, then I at least know he’ll be a serviceable player. I’m not 100 percent on board with this statement, but I’m close.

This affords me a moment to talk about a player whose game I appreciate – perhaps too much when I first began a formal method of study for the Rookie Scouting Portfolio eight years ago, but in the scheme of quarterbacks that are still standing, perhaps not enough – Bruce Gradkowski. I thought the former Toledo star had as good or better feel for the game – and especially the pocket – than any of his peers in that 2006 quarterback class that included Jay Cutler, Matt Leinart, and Vince Young.

At the time, Gradkowski was the only passer in NCAA history to complete 70 percent of his passes for two seasons and this was in an offense where Gradkowski dropped from center. He also ran a 4.59-second 40 at the combine and was among the better all-around athletes at the position in the drills at the NFL Combine. I had Gradkowski ranked fourth behind Cutler, Young, and Leinart.

He was in a virtual tie with Leinart. The only reason I had the USC quarterback above Gradkowski was at that time, I wasn’t writing an RSP post-draft publication and I had to account for opportunity. What I didn’t expect was Gradkowski doing well enough in the preseason that Jon Gruden opted to start the rookie in Tampa  Bay.

I was tempted to wait on a quarterback in this RSPWP2 Draft, take Gradkowski, put him in a west coast offense, and damn the jeering from the cheap seats. The only thing that Gradkowski lacks is a franchise-caliber arm and if surrounded by great talent, he could have that Rich Gannon presence I believe Gruden saw in Gradkowski when the coach drafted the Toledo Rocket.

[youtube=http://youtu.be/gDWEiHxdw1U]

This was Gradkowski’s third touchdown in the fourth quarter to beat the Steelers in Heinz Field. If you didn’t know, the Steelers signed him in the offseason as Roethlisberger’s backup. In Todd Haley’s quick-decision, short(er)-passing offense, it’s a good fit.

Watch how economical Gradkowski is in the pocket. He’s also willing to step into the pocket and take the hit to make the throw and even the incomplete passes are accurate throws under pressure where he often throws open his target.

2:51, 3:20, and 6:19 to the end of the clip

[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b1k-EwFiLWM&start=220&w=560&h=315]

It’s a simple-looking throw, but the willingness to stand in the pocket and use his athleticism in tight spots and odd angles to distribute the ball under pressure is something that he has in common with Romo, Gannon, and Smith. These small plays make a difference. If you watched Jon Gruden’s QB camp with Matt Barkley this week, then you saw the coach tutor Barkley on the same basic play that grilled Andrew Luck for messing up at Stanford. The play is a short-to-long read that is practically an automatic dump to the fullback in the flat.

During the episode, Gruden laments that only the Peyton Mannings of the football world seem to realize that you “can’t lose money when you’re always making a profit.”  Young quarterbacks are often too aggressive and overconfident and they don’t know how to balance when to pick apart a team and when to go for the jugular. Gradkowski has this balance – just not the vast arm talent. This touchdown pass is another good example of how a player must be willing to stand in and own the pocket.

[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b1k-EwFiLWM&start=171&w=560&h=315]

This play required some eye manipulation and a pump fake to set up the safety and the patience to hang in the pocket to complete the throw on time. Gradkowski demonstrated this at Toledo and his stints with the Bucs, Rams, Browns, Bengals, and Raiders. The fact that I mentioned five teams in a seven-year career means Gradkowski is an utter failure if you’re a fantasy football owner, but only NFL media and marketing cares about your fantasy interests.

But if NFL operations – specifically individual team operations – values a player who can put his team in position to win. The final two plays on this video below are the type of plays that give a receiver a chance to win the game and Gradkowski has a knack for it.

[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b1k-EwFiLWM&start=379&w=560&h=315]

I’m not touting Gradowski as a future superstar. However, it is important to show that a quarterback can have long-term value in the NFL if arm strength isn’t at the top of his resume, but the top two bullet points are pocket presence and accuracy. He’s a savvy quarterback who I still believe can be an effective starter in the right situation.

Of course, there aren’t many of these situations in the league and fewer would value him as a long-term option. The importance of this tangent is that if Geno Smith were to fail as a starter that his style of quarterbacking will make him a viable long-term backup who can fill a need for several teams. It means Smith has little downside as a talent – even if he doesn’t work out as an initial investment with a team.

Smith in the Boiler

Unlike Gradkowski, Geno Smith has enough arm strength to earn a spot on a draft board for most teams as a future starter. What you just saw from Gradkowski is where I think Smith has potential. I like the Mountaineer’s wherewithal in the pocket.

This is a 3rd-and-18 pass with 9:23 in the third quarter and a 10-point lead at their own 29. Forget about analyzing Smith’s read of the coverage and just watch how he maneuvers a pocket against a four-man rush.

[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I1zqqutj6Uo&start=440w=560&h=315]

Maryland may only send four defenders, but the defense does a good job of constricting the pocket. The end forces the left tackle backfield and in this situation many quarterbacks try to break the pocket inside the right tackle and are dropped before they reach the line of scrimmage. Smith escapes the blind side rush with the intent to throw down field.

Although he his initial climb of the pocket is as fast as most quarterbacks move when they drop their eyes and run for the escape hatch, Smith’s head remains up and his eyes on his receivers. When he feels the defensive tackles collapsing the middle and clogging his passing lane, Smith moves just like the quarterback footwork drills you always see in practice but not performed this textbook in a game.

The West Virginia quarterback slides to his left, remains in a throwing position and find the comeback for positive yards. This leads to a punt, but with a 10-point lead in their own territory, this is a good outcome.

Maryland shows Smith the possibility that it is sending seven defenders on the next play; opting for five at the snap. What I like about this play is Smith’s ability to work though pressure up the middle.

[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I1zqqutj6Uo&start=495w=560&h=315]

This isn’t just a climb of the pocket. While a nice thing to see from all quarterbacks, I especially like the way Smith waits until the last moment to avoid the middle linebacker coming free of the running back up the middle. Although the difference is tenths – or even hundredths – of a second between a quarterback I’d consider patient and one who not, the extra beat that Smith waits to look down field before opting to reduce his shoulder and climb is a critical part of having “feel” for his surroundings.

I also like that he sees the pocket one step ahead and his already working to the inside of the next rusher so he can slide to the open lane and deliver the ball on this 2nd-and-two play. Although the receiver drops this pass in tight coverage and one could make a weak argument that tucking and running was a better recourse, I think if you isolate Smith’s skill to maneuver and deliver on this play and others like it, you see a budding field general.

I’m not as high on Smith as others, but I do believe he has the basic skills to develop into a successful starter and pocket presence tops the list.

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