Posts tagged Rookie Scouting Portfolio

Character, Media, and the NFL Draft: A Sour Cocktail

It's a bad idea to evaluate a smile the way you critique his release. Photo by PDA.Photo
It’s a bad idea to evaluate his smile the way you critique his release. And I dare say that I’m more qualified than most of my peers when it comes to interviewing a perspective employee. Photo by PDA.Photo

I’m 43 years old. Since I was 15, I’ve held 16 types of jobs with 9 different companies. I’m not counting the four soul-sucking hours I spent as a stock boy at a Winn-Dixie.

On my lunch hour at that job, I walked out the door and kept walking. Two miles later, I made a beeline to the manager’s office at the apartment complex where I grew up. The next morning I was collecting trash and cleaning the grounds.

Yeah, I would have rather hauled other people’s garbage and take a blower to a parking lot filled with pollen that made “sinus irritation” an understatement than to stand around a grocery store all day. There’s considerable irony to this story once you learn that my wife and daughter have an ongoing joke that the two grocery stores in town are my mistresses: Kroger my ‘around the way girl’ and Earth Fare my ‘hippy chick’.  Other than work and home, these two places are where you can find me.

Good thing I wasn’t a star quarterback or the way I ended that job might earned this kind of headline:

 NFL Draft Analyst calls star quarterback ‘unreliable.’ Cites behavior of quitting jobs without notice among evidence.  

I’m only half-kidding. Although not a serious example of behavior that would even register amid the range of nitpicking stories on character that we read this time of year, it is an example of how a lack of context can alter the truth. A writer could easily speculate that a guy who walks off the job without notice is not the best candidate to lead a team.

Judging by what has been said about Cam Newton and Geno Smith, some writers relish a challenge. They examine smiles and facial expressions with the same fervor and methodology as tracking short shuttles and dissecting throwing motions. This is where their experiences as a football players fails them.

They fail to consider that the greatest amount of emotional maturation from childhood to adulthood happens between the ages of 16-25. This is when young people are given their first adult-level responsibilities. With new responsibilities comes new experiences.

And if you’ve been a human long enough, then you know that experience is the product of mistakes.

My career in the workplace didn’t start well.  Between the ages of 16 and 21, I walked off three of my first five jobs without notice. I could provide a convincing argument that two of those three walkouts were based on extenuating circumstances. However at the end of the day, I didn’t give notice and that is on me.

If I was a star quarterback and a private investigation firm was looking into my behavior, they might report to a director of scouting that I was unreliable, unprofessional, and immature. If a general manager opted to use these three adjectives to describe me in this context during a phone call or email with a draft analyst, I might be labeled a character risk and potential bust.

But what if I told you that those jobs were taken so I could practice my craft of quarterbacking at the only time of day where I had access to the tools and resources to get better?

What if you knew I woke up at 4:30 a.m. each morning during the summers, worked this part-time job until 1:30 p.m., and then from 2:00 p.m. to 8:00 p.m., I practiced without fail?

What if I told you that the company hired me after I told them of my scheduling needs and it was only after several weeks or months that the company’s needs changed. Rather than hiring someone for those needs, they gave me an ultimatum to either switch my hours or walk out the door and not come back?

Was I immature or were my priorities based on developing the skills of my future job over being flexible to the new terms of my present one? While I wasn’t a star quarterback, I was a musician who couldn’t practice after 8:00 p.m. without disturbing neighbors and needed my nights free to perform with others.

Even if the right answer is still being flexible, context is important.

If I was a college quarterback and this was a question clouding my character, I could only hope that those team-hired investigators were thorough. Even then, I’d have to wonder if those teams wouldn’t use these questions as a bargaining tool to drive down my stock and ultimately the price of my rookie contract.

Around the same time a college quarterback would be making the transition to a professional career, I was making mine. A couple of years earlier, I stopped performing music and changed career paths. My next five jobs were part of a 12-year career with the same employer.

I began as an entry-level employee while in school. Within a year I was a part-time supervisor and by the time I finished college, I was an assistant manager. Over that four-year period between the final years of my college life and the early years of my full-time professional career, I had probably interviewed, hired, trained, and disciplined a few hundred employees.

I made my share of mistakes. I made poor hiring decisions and I mishandled issues with clients, employees, and customers. In hindsight, most of these mistakes happened because I was young, inexperienced, and often immature.

There was a back I encountered 20 years ago whose physical skills and level of maturity reminds me of Christine Michael. This back ultimately had a successful career. Photo by SD Dirk.
There was a back I encountered 20 years ago whose immense physical skills and level of maturity reminds me of Christine Michael. This back ultimately had a successful career. Photo by SD Dirk.

During my brief time covering football practices a couple of years earlier, I encountered a star running back who was also displaying his own youthful immaturity. He rarely made it to post-practice interviews during his career.

His teammates intimated to me that their teammate was not a guy to be counted on. I got a sense that they didn’t like him very much. It wasn’t what they said, but how they said it. They rolled their eyes, shook their heads, and made dismissive sighs when I asked if this lead dog of the Georgia football team would be coming to the assigned sessions.

What they would say in conjunction with their physical displays of dissatisfaction was He’s never on time. I also had a friend who had a class with the runner. He told me stories about this future first-round pick of the Arizona Cardinals, including how the back spent more time carving his name into the desk rather than listening to the teacher.

I had good info to write about his immaturity before he was drafted, but I didn’t think it was worth discussing. I knew lots of students who came to class hung over, slept through lectures, or did half-hearted work with their assignments and still transformed into quality professionals in their respective careers. Why should Garrison Hearst be any different?

For all I really knew, Hearst’s teammates liked him even if they didn’t like that he was often late or a no-show to after-practice press sessions. It’s not hard to imagine that Hearst cared more about football than an interview or an English class. During my 20’s I thought Hearst was a slacker, but 20 years later and with a lot more life experience and perspective, I have a different view.  One of those experiences happened just a couple of years later.

Imagine being 22 or 23 and months away from earning a first-round contract with a professional football team. Better yet, imagine being 22, winning $5 million in the lottery, and going to work in a job that you don’t like. How difficult it must be to stay focused when what you’re doing won’t make a real difference in how you will earn the majority of your money?

Just like any of these prospects, we know the right answer: keep the straight and narrow. But it doesn’t change how difficult it is to maintain these priorities. Even if the fear of becoming academically ineligible during the season and watching one’s draft stock plummet might seem like a strong enough deterrent, it wouldn’t be easy.

I know it wouldn’t.

When I was 24 and two months from graduating from Georgia with dual majors in English and Spanish, my company promoted me to a full-time position at the time I was also headlong in a serious relationship with a woman who was moving in with me. That 500-level linguistics course that was 2.5 hours per session and taught in the native language by the head of the Spanish department three times a week was the lowest priority in my life.

I was in love. This was one of my last two classes. And I was getting paid.

And if you knew how little I was making, then you would realize the depths of my immaturity. I thought I could juggle it all. Only when I learned (all too late) that the final exam in this course had material on the front and back of each page did it hit me that I wasn’t thinking straight.

I failed the test, earned my first-ever D in the last class of my academic career, and settled for a major in English and minor in Spanish.

Someone I know and trust (and so do you if I told you who it was) with connections to a college program that has a marquee player entering this 2013 NFL class told me that this player barely emerged unscathed from a  similar scenario. When I heard about this, I understood the difficulty of maintaining one’s focus and priorities.  And he really is about to get paid! 

This prospect is dedicated to learning the game of football, but he lacked the maturity to keep his academics from becoming a potential problem that could have hurt him and his team. This probably earned the ire of his teammates and coaches. It’s the type of situation that could have been leaked to the media in a way where a writer could deem the prospect as “not well-liked,” or “lacking a good work ethic.”

Would you take a chance on a player in his early 20’s who works his ass off in practice and the film room, but had issues balancing his priorities with the classroom? In the scheme of things, I’d say it’s non-issue.

It became a non-issue for me. My immaturity as a student and young employee wasn’t fatal to my career. My successes outweighed my failures and I eventually became an operations manager, then a director at this company.

I can safely estimate that by the time I transitioned from a career in management to a writing career, I had interviewed, trained, and managed thousands of people ranging from entry-level employees to middle management. I was one of the few people in our company’s history who had a dual role as an operations manager and primary client contact.

I wasn’t a corporate superstar, but I was good at my job. I bet my career experiences are no different from many of you reading this.

If you have at least 10 years of experience as a manager in an environment that is a mix of blue-collar and white-collar cultures then you have probably faced unusual situations in your jobs where the everyday priorities of production, efficiency, and quality paled in comparison:

  • Bomb threats.
  • Fist fights between entry-level employees.
  • A broken windshield courtesy of a disgruntled former employee who was fired because I wouldn’t allow him to sexually harass employees.
  • Workplace romances.
  • Challenging and dysfunctional client relationships.

Despite the way I make it sound, most of my employees enjoyed working with me and these crazy situations above were rare events. Like most, the workplace has its headaches and if you’ve worked long enough then you’ve seen things you’d never think would happen.

It’s these experiences that add perspective about human nature. The capacity for a young adult to undergo a quick maturation is one of those major lessons.

Whether it’s the NFL, a blue-collar job, or Corporate America, there’s nothing like looking Career Death in the eye  to grow up fast. It happens to everyone. What’s even more profound is when you are given the responsibility as Career Death Incarnate to a soon-to-be former employee.

One of my worst days as a manager came when I had to fire a young woman who was avoiding her assignments. Even when she was working, she mistreated customers. During her firing, this part-time employee told me she had been recently been diagnosed with a treatable form of cancer. She was afraid to tell her mother, who had also been diagnosed just months earlier.

Although paling in comparison to her situation, firing someone dealing with cancer was not a good day in my life.

As unbelievable as it seems, she dropped by the office a few weeks later to ‘thank me for firing her’. Apparently, our conversation motivated her to find a job in an environment better suited to her needs. She told her mother about her cancer and it brought them closer. It was a blessing for them – and a minor, but rare blessing that she took the time to share it with me.

The experience of getting fired helped her make changes in her life. Her mistakes put her on a road towards gaining the maturity needed to make her life more fulfilling. This maturation in the face of a career death – parallels what many young NFL players face.

If there's a player who looked Career Death in the eye multiple times and matured, but still was far from a perfect professional and role model, Favre tops the list. Photo by Elvis Kennedy.
If there’s a player who looked Career Death in the eye multiple times and matured, but still was far from a perfect professional and role model, Favre tops the list. Photo by Elvis Kennedy.

I think Garrison Hearst stared Career Death in the eye a few times. The first-round pick of the Cardinals (third overall) had a rough start to his career. He drew the ire of Buddy Ryan, who once gave Hearst a wheelbarrow filled with sand to tote around practice after his rehab from a knee injury wasn’t going as fast as Ryan believed it should.

Eventually, Hearst had to fight is way from the bottom of the Bengals depth chart to split time with Kijana Carter. Even then he wasn’t offered a contract on par with Eric Bienemy. Hearst’s agent had to fight hard for the 49ers to even give Hearst a shot and when the former Georgia star began camp in San Francisco, Terry Kirby was the starter.

This all happened before Hearst had an ankle injury that was so bad – and complications during recovery that were even worse – that most players would have never seen a field again. Hearst’s experiences made him a battle-tested professional.

[youtube=http://youtu.be/5dgrjrp6jXE]

Physically, Hearst could have made this run early in his career but I believe the adversity he overcame made him mentally prepared to finish a 96-yard run in overtime.

But the maturity to be a prepared professional and a media-savvy one was something that Hearst never learned during his career. When asked about the idea of gays in the locker room, Hearst’s growth as a professional didn’t include dealing with people:

“Aww, hell no! I don’t want any faggots on my team. I know this might not be what people want to hear, but that’s a punk. I don’t want any faggots in this locker room.” 

While I don’t like Hearst’s views (at that time of his life) and perhaps someday these views will (hopefully) pose a greater problem to a team, I’m more concerned about whether a player will show up to work on time and give 100 percent to his job.

If you’ve worked with or led a group of people, you learn that not every member of a team is likable or reliable in situations outside the job. However, when it comes to his specific job, there may be few who are better.

I can think of several examples from my work experiences. These were people who made youthful mistakes before their employment or even had major issues on the job, but grew up and became good at what they did:

  • The trumpet player who removed his wedding ring before every gig, but was always on-time, demonstrated great range, and read everything right the first time. 
  • The short-order cook who would have gotten punched out by a customer if he had to ever deal with one, but never messed up an order and could balance multiple tickets at a time.
  • A former employee, who had a DUI charge reduced and expunged from his record as a teen, but a creative, reliable, and resourceful analyst.
  • A co-worker who was in a string of bad relationships and was once disciplined due to an inappropriate relationship with another co-worker that nearly got her fired before her career began, but eventually became a charismatic manager and teacher.

In a year or two, we might be able to add Christine Michael to this list. His displays of immaturity included sleeping through his Combine interviews. Still, it hasn’t  kept me from ranking him within the tier of future starters in this running back class.

I have no doubt that he can mature into a reliable player with a long, productive career. I also have no doubt that he could get cut and never fulfill his talent. However, based on my experiences with young adults, I would rather count on the likelihood that a young man is going to make mistakes and learn from them. Even commenting on it is a dangerous game because the weight it adds to an evaluation can be heavier than warranted.

Even if you’re a pessimist you have to concede that people often mature just enough to compartmentalize their flaws. At the very least they become good at preventing their issues from bleeding into their work long enough to address the issues and overcome them.  I know this was the case for me.

I shared my career history with you because I feel confident that my skills and experience have helped me become a decent judge of character. And if someone with my qualifications and experience is reticent to evaluate and judge a prospect’s personality and character when my available data is news clippings, press conferences, and second and third-hand reports, then why should anyone give credence to these assessments from other writers or television analysts who lack any real experience interviewing, managing, or leading adults?

Outside of well-documented problems involving drugs, alcohol, and violent crime, any members of media passing significant judgment on an NFL prospect’s character that changes the outcome of his evaluation  – even if they are eventually proven correct – are making a foolish decision on principle.

The fact is unless we look these players in the eye, ask them the tough questions, and have past experience as managers living with a player’s behavior – better or worse – as our employees, then we don’t know.

Sometimes it’s okay to say, I don’t know. 

For analysis of skill players in this year’s draft class, download the 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio available April 1. Prepayment is available now. Better yet, if you’re a fantasy owner the 56-page Post-Draft Add-on comes with the 2013 RSP at no additional charge. Best, yet, 10 percent of every sale is donated to Darkness to Light to combat sexual abuse. You can purchase past editions of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio for just $9.95 apiece.

Reads Listens Views 4/5/2013

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Would Josh Gordon have been the top option in the 2013 draft class if his college career wasn’t filled with off-field missteps? I thought he was an option in the late-first to early-second rounds of 2012 rookie drafts, which would have placed him in the conversation with this year’s class. If you wish to take a liberal perspective and count his first year in Cleveland as his “senior year,” considering hadn’t played football the year before, then I think it’s a fair argument to make that Cleveland did well with its supplemental pick. I think they make a good argument that he’s better than any receiver in the 2013 class. It may not be true, but the fact there’s a valid argument makes it good enough.

Listens

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Roger Ebert

You probably heard that Roger Ebert passed away yesterday. He was a cultural icon. I hope you read his amazing blog, which he was transforming into a project expected to go online next week called Ebert Digital. Actually, if there is one piece I recommend you read this week that is not about football, it’s this Chris Jones profile of Ebert published in Esquire almost 26 months ago. It’s one of the great magazine profiles I’ve read.

Thank You

It has been a few weeks since I’ve posted a Reads Listens Views. For those of you new to the RSP blog, I write this type of post most Friday’s. It’s my chance to link to other fantastic football and non-football content. Most of all it’s a chance to thank you.

And it feels like it has been a while since I’ve posted a Friday piece, so I owe you a long overdue word of thanks. The response to the 2013 RSP has been phenomenal. A lot of kind words via email, Twitter, and a few posted on the blog, too. I will update readers later this year when I send the pledged percentage 10 percent of each saleto Darkness to Light.

If you haven’t bought the RSP before, do yourself a favor. Once you do you’ll understand why it is becoming a Rite of Football Spring for those who want the goods on skill position players entering the NFL draft.

Football Reads


Views

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For a run-oriented era by comparison of today’s pass-happy NFL, there’s some fancy pitching and catching between Ken Anderson and Isaac Curtis. The YouTube commentary is also worth a read from it’s writer with the handle “The Bengals Mind” :

Isaac Curtis had world class speed running a 9.30 seconds in the 100 yard dash making him faster then the legendary Jesse Owens who ran it in 9.40 seconds. To help put that in a even better prospective Usain Bolt can run the 100 yard dash in the 8.9 range meaning Curtis was only around .4(Four Tenths of a Second) slower than Usain Bolt. He was also a superb clutch catcher but even more importantly was how the soft spoken Curtis handled himself on and off the field. Kenny Anderson made it no secret that Curtis was his favorite target saying that when ever he was in trouble he would throw it to Curtis knowing he would catch it.

In the 1973 draft, most experts had Steve Holden as the best wide receiver coming out of college but Paul Brown had Isaac Curtis as the number one wide receiver prospect. So when Paul selected Isaac Curtis with the 15th overall pick, the Cleveland Browns organization and fans celebrated as it allowed them to draft Steve Holden with the 16th pick. They told Paul Brown that “they couldn’t figure out why he took Isaac” and Brown said “I may be 65 but I think I still know talent when I see it.” By the end of his rookie year, Paul Brown was already comparing him to Paul Warfield. Ironic, since Isaac Curtis had some of his best games against the Browns.

Non-Football Reads

ViewsHow to Truly Listen (H/T to Joe Bryant)

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 For analysis of skill players in this year’s draft class, download the 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio available April 1. Prepayment is available now. Better yet, if you’re a fantasy owner the 56-page Post-Draft Add-on comes with the 2013 RSP at no additional charge. Best, yet, 10 percent of every sale is donated to Darkness to Light to combat sexual abuse. You can purchase past editions of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio for just $9.95 apiece.

Behind the Scenes Thoughts on Running Backs in 2013 RSP

Lacy wasn't the back I liked the most, but he was the best fit as the RSP's No.1 back  in 2013. Photo by Mike Pettigano.
Lacy wasn’t the back I liked the most, but he was the best fit as the RSP’s No.1 back in 2013. Photo by Mike Pettigano.

In case you were on a covert mission in the jungles of southeast Asia to save the world from a mad scientist hunkered down in a secret lair who was just a step away from bringing the world to the brink of chemical warfare, the 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio is now available for download. The RSP won’t save the world, but it will have draftniks and fantasy owners ready to hunker down in their “war rooms.”

It earned me a seat “On the Couch” to talk shop the other night with my friends Sigmund Bloom and Cecil Lammey. You can listen to the episode here. It’s worth it alone to hear Lammey articulate his thoughts on running backs.

I occasionally get time have off-air chats on the couch with Sigmund Bloom. While his excellent show has a title that smartly plays off his first name, Bloom is more like the Gertude Stein of football talk. Rarely is there a conversation that we don’t arrive at an idea to explore. This ranges from writing about the emotional-intellectual transition players have to make from the college game to the NFL ( Talent and Production: The Great Emotional Divide), to the RSP Writers Project.

Last week I was sharing some of my rankings with Bloom prior to publishing the RSP. He suggested I share my thoughts on the ranking process with specific players – a behind the scenes retelling of my thoughts and feelings about players that delves deeper than their actual ranking and detailing of skills and potential.

What You Should Know About My Rankings Process

I have five steps that help me develop my rankings. They are each a process in their own right.  If I were working for an NFL team as a decision-maker in this capacity it would be six, but I’m a one-man band and I don’t interview people that often. I also don’t have resources to hire a PI firm.

These steps aren’t meant to impress you. I don’t have the end-all, be-all rankings. I think they are helpful and entertaining, but the act of ranking players is a troublesome process without a specific team philosophy in mind.

Evaluating player performance is difficult because you have to try to objectify a lot of subjective material. There are also times where you don’t get to see a specific skill from a player because of game situations or the system featuring the player. How to factor this into an evaluation process that ends with a ranking is challenging.

Despite its problematic nature, these processes help me learn more about the game, the players, and my strengths and weaknesses as an evaluator.

Stepfan Taylor by Han Shot First
I like Stepfan Taylor, but I liked his offensive line a lot more. Photo by Han Shot First.

The Method to the Madness of the Rankings Turnstile 

Sharing what I just did helps me provide some context about my rankings. Especially when I’m about to drop these kind of statements on you:

  • Two running backs were neck-and-neck for the No. 1 spot but one of them could have easily been third on my list and a third player if healthy, would have topped both of my final candiates.
  • One player dropped two over a dozen spots as I cycled through my process.
  • There were no less than five players spent moments at the top of my receiving rankings (This is for another article).

Developing RSP rankings is a series of steps that at first yields a rough ranking that I refine as I complete each process. I’ll eventually get to a point where the differences are small enough that I’m making more subjective calls because the differences in skill are minimal or the styles are divergent enough that you have to make a call on which style is most favorable to the broadest range of teams.

A good example is Eddie Lacy and Giovani Bernard. After note play-by-play detail and complete a position checklist, I perform a skills breakdown. The checklist is designed to say whether or not the player demonstrated an ability to perform these skills of the position to a minimal level of expectation that I estimate is “NFL-worthy.”

The skills breakdown is designed to evaluate “how good” the player performs these skills:

  • Star-caliber
  • Starter
  • Committee/Contributor
  • Reserve
  • Free Agent
  • Deficient

Lacy’s skill ratings by order of these categories was 1-6-3-0-0-0. Bernard’s was 1-7-2-0-0-0. On the surface, Bernard has 8 skills on the high-end of proficiency (star or starter) to Lacy’s 7. However using this info to rank players isn’t just a matter of who has more high-end skills and who has less.

It’s important to know which skills are ranked the highest. If Bernard’s two lowest-ranked skills are essential parts of carrying the football then depending what they are, it could make his rating less attractive to Lacy’s if the Alabama runner’s lowest-ranked skills are not as essential to core productivity.

In this case, Lacy’s lowest scores were his pass protection, receiving, and ball security. Bernard’s were power and pass protection. All of these “low” scores were at what I consider the “committee” tier, which isn’t really that low at all. Still, these were Lacy and Bernard’s weakest points as players.

Once I determine the tiers where these skill sets belong, I note how likely this player can improve upon this skill. This year, I provided charts in the RSP publication that illustrate how likely I think it is for the average pro prospect to improve in each skill area of his position.

As with any process that is trying to distill subjective elements into some level of objectivity, this is just a guideline.

For instance, it’s difficulty for many tight ends to execute hard breaks compared to wide receivers. Those that don’t already demonstrate the ability to do it at the college level often have a tougher time with it at the pro level. However, this is not always the case. If I’m watching a tight end demonstrate skills to make lateral cuts as a ball carrier where he drops his hips to change direction, then he is mimicking a lot of the motion one would see in a hard break.

Since his athleticism will likely translate to learning hard breaks, I’ll consider this as something that he can learn. There has to be some opportunity to account for exceptions.

Back to Bernard and Lacy. In their case, my process brought me to the obvious: They are both talented backs with opposite styles. This might seem like a lot of work for me to arrive at something that my wife and daughter – who aren’t fans – saw just by watching two different highlight videos.

However, the process also helps me make sure there are no major differences in talent level so I can feel sure that I’m at a point where I have to make a call that is more about style and fit than substance and talent. In the case of Lacy vs. Bernard, the Alabama runner does his best work between the tackle and his power is one of his notable strengths while the North Carolina back can dictate a defender’s angle of pursuit and exploit it.

Personally, Bernard appeals more to my sensibilities when it comes to runners. I love what he can do as a receiver and he has enough balance and strength to be a functional runner between the tackles. It’s possible he could get even better. Like Ray Rice, if Bernard adds more weight to his core, which could enhance his strength and explosiveness, we might be looking at a bell cow back in a few years.

What ultimately put Lacy over the top for me was his power. Although not as dynamic as Bernard, Lacy can catch the ball, make defenders miss, and flash some speed in the open field. The strength to run through tackles and bounce off hits at the line of scrimmage made Lacy a more attractive option for the widest range of teams.

So if you assume I like Lacy more you’d be wrong. I like Bernard more. However, the aim of the RSP liked Lacy best. In fact ,Jonathan Franklin and my No.4 runner had enough skill to make my top four players a grouping that is close.

If  Marcus Lattimore’s Health Was Not An Issue

The South Carolina would have easily been the top player on my running back board. I could have easily made Lattimore my No.3 runner. To be honest, I thought about placing him No.1 on my board and telling you guys to figure out how much his injury devalues him in your eyes. I realized that would be a cop-out, so I did my best to gauge the risk-reward.

Within the realism of my pre-draft rankings, one could make a good argument that he’s worth taking higher than where I ranked him.

Ellington's game made me angry. Photo by PDA Photo.
Ellington’s game made me angry. Photo by PDA Photo.

Difficult to Rank

If you think those players were difficult to gauge, try Clemson runner Andre Ellington. I spent 20-30 hours trying to figure out where he belonged in my rankings and the more I watched Ellington, the angrier I got. His low 40-time had nothing to do with my frustration. If anything, it was a backhanded positive that the guy could pull up lame and still run a 4.61.

What irked me was Ellington’s strength, balance, and blocking. In the open field, Ellington has nice displays of balance. I didn’t see the same instances of balance on more ordinary runs where quality backs – even lead backs known most for their skills in space such as C.J. Spiller – earn more yards after contact.

Ellington’s effort as a blocker was high, but his skill was not up to snuff. I had to go back and watch additional games of Ellington to feel I was on solid ground with my assessment. Even now, I can see how he could outplay where I rank him but I’d be even less surprised if I ranked him too high.

Arkansas runner Dennis Johnson was also no fun to rank. I still have concerns that his power will translate to the NFL. A 5-6 bowling ball, Johnson lacks the agility and vision that makes Maurice Jones-Drew special. I had to watch him multiple times beyond my initial research and I wouldn’t be surprised if I have him too high on my board as a contributor with sneaky lead back potential.

Scary-Easy Decisions

Joseph Randle. Cecil Lammey’s assessment of Randle was close to mine and I think Lammey had more equanimity to his assessment than how I felt about the Oklahoma State runner. It was so easy to slot Randle in a group of players who didn’t come close to his production, I’m still a little nervous that I missed something with his game. The problem is that I felt like there was nothing difficult about assessing his skill.

Spencer Ware. I could have ranked him higher because his pass protection is already decent for a college running back and based on what I saw it will improve fast. The scary part is that there is no 40 or shuttle time on him of record. I like to have these, especially when ranking a player as high as I placed Ware. At the same time, watching him get outside on non-pitch plays and use quick cuts to work around SEC defenders tells me that Ware could run the 40 in 4.7 and be an effective back.

Big Drops

Ray Graham. I love watching Ray Graham. You can hear from the podcast I referenced at the beginning that my fellow writers Bloom and Lammey love Graham. I just couldn’t bring put him any higher than I did at the end of the process. There was a point he was about 6-7 spots higher, but the tendency to use – and in my opinion, lean heavily on – cuts where he had to come to a complete stop to change direction hurt his potential.

This is a huge habit of Graham’s and not some small part of his game and I have concerns that he’ll have difficulty eliminating it from his game if he’s not quick enough to make defenders miss. Combined with power that I thought was average at best, I think there’s too much hope I’m feeling for Graham to improve upon than realistically expecting it.

Stepfan Taylor. His lateral agility is excellent and I think Lammey’s take on this is good. I didn’t see enough acceleration to his game to get excited about him. I think Taylor is a good college back capable of producing at the NFL level, but never a fixture as a lead back.

For analysis of skill players in this year’s draft class, download the 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio available April 1. Prepayment is available now. Better yet, if you’re a fantasy owner the 56-page Post-Draft Add-on comes with the 2013 RSP at no additional charge. Best, yet, 10 percent of every sale is donated to Darkness to Light to combat sexual abuse. You can purchase past editions of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio for just $9.95 apiece.

The Elusiveness Factor: Patterson-Austin-Woods By Nick Whalen

Who is more elusive, Cordarrelle Patterson or Tavon Austin? Photo by Nashville Corps.
Who is more elusive, Cordarrelle Patterson or Tavon Austin? Photo by Nashville Corps.

If you’re an NFL Draft junkie, this time of year feels like the weeks of anticipation leading to Christmas Day.  When I was a kid, recordings of previous NFL Drafts were my “cartoons before bedtime,” before this blessed event that always brought a sense of euphoria when it finally arrived.

I’m not normal.

But I seek solace in the fact that many of you know what I mean.  The 2013 NFL Draft has two bright, shiny toys in Cordarrelle Patterson and Tavon Austin. Yet like some of the most popular toys kids want for Christmas, they present some risks that are polarizing.

I’m not the Consumer Reports of college prospects. If you want a safety assessment regarding the risk of investing in them, go somewhere else. I want to explore what they do best: making collegiate defenders look silly trying to corral them in when they had the ball.

So for the past few weeks, I dove into film study that took more time than I feel comfortable divulging.  My fiancé literally thinks I’m nuts, but this is her first NFL Draft with me – so better she know now what she’s getting into. This piece has enough data collection on the back end that it could blow Mel Kiper so far back that he’d have no more product left in his hair.

Since Patterson and Austin are so good at making defenders miss, I wanted a third prospect to study that is considered an elusive receiver in the normal sense of the word. I chose Robert Woods. Here are the number of games and plays I watched of each player.*

  • Cordarrelle Patterson: 12 games/67 plays
  • Tavon Austin: 12 games/172 plays
  • Robert Woods: 15 games/138 plays

*Patterson and Austin’s games are from the 2012 season. Woods’ games were from 2011 and 2012 to match Austin’s sample size.

Plays like this one, where Woods has to make a diving effort and drops to the ground were among those discounted in Whalen's analysis. Photo by Neon Tommy.
Plays like this one, where Woods has to make a diving effort and drops to the ground were among those discounted in Whalen’s analysis. Photo by Neon Tommy.

In order to get as accurate of an assessment as I could, I opted to dismiss plays from my sample that put the player in a situation where he had no chance to make a defender miss.  These six types of plays didn’t count in my study (abbreviations in parenthesis for tables below):

  • Catching a touchdown in the end zone (TD-End).
  • Untouched/easy path to the end zone (TD-Easy).
  • Tackled by the defender upon making a reception (T/Rec).
  • Falling catch (F/Rec)
  • Falling out of bounds, slipping, or diving to the ground while making the catch near sideline (Side).
  • Exiting the boundary to preserve the clock in the appropriate game situation (Exit).
  • Designed runs from the backfield between the tackles (Int).

I also opted to dismiss Tavon Austin’s interior running plays when used from the backfield.  This way I could focus on all three players as ball carriers from the receiver position (jet sweeps, end-arounds, and reverses). “Total D” in the table is the number of plays dismissed from the analysis, which is subtracted from the “Watched” column to generate the Adjusted Total.

Name

TD-End

TD-Easy

T/Rec

F/Rec

Side

Exit

Int.

Total D

Watched

Adj. Total

Patterson

6

1

5

1

11

1

0

25

67

42

Austin

4

1

18

5

1

0

38

67

172

105

Woods

20

1

31

13

7

0

0

72

138

66

Woods has a very high number of catches where he was tackled during the catch reception or he fell upon making the catch.  This has to do with his combination of athleticism, the type of targets thrown his way and his lack of separation from defenders in some of these situations.

I counted players that were within a three-yard radius with a legitimate chance of making a tackle.

Clearly there is some subjectivity to how I did this, but I was as uniform with my process as I could:

  • If the defender was three yards behind the ball carrier, he’s not counted as a tackle attempt.
  • If the defender was three yards ahead and with no blocker in his way, I counted it as an attempt.
  • If a defender is being blocked, it had to be a distance of less than half a man and he had to have a true shot to attempt an arm on the ball carrier.

I used this data to calculate elusiveness on pass plays, run plays, punt returns, kick returns, and total plays.

Pass Plays

Name

Eluded

Receptions

Pct.

Patterson

27

16

169%

Austin

25

44

57%

Woods

24

66

36%

I didn’t expect Woods to be on par with Patterson or Austin, but for Patterson to have eluded more defenders on a fraction of the receptions that either Austin or Woods had is a fascinating number to see. It leaves one to wonder how much these numbers reflect the style or location of the play or if Patterson’s style of running after the catch is that much more efficient at making defenders miss.

Run Plays

Name

Eluded

Runs

Pct.

Patterson

23

17

135%

Austin

20

29

69%

Woods

3

2

150%

The number of Patterson’s defenders who missed him equals the total of Austin and Woods combined. Not much of a sample for Woods. For those of you interested in the outcome of Austin’s interior running plays, the Mountaineer made 24 defenders miss on 38 runs between the tackles that qualified.

Punt Returns

Name

Eluded

Returns

Pct.

Patterson

7

2

350%

Austin

27

8

338%

Woods

8

7

114%

Punt returns have been regarded as one of the easiest situations where a ball carrier can make a defender miss and the numbers across the board appear to reflect this notion.

Kick Returns

Name

Eluded

Returns

Pct.

Patterson

15

7

214%

Austin

17

24

71%

Woods

3

2

150%

 The sample size for Woods is too small to draw any reasonable conclusions. It is fascinating how much higher Patterson scores compared to Austin.

Total Plays

Name

Eluded

Eluded/Play

Pct.

Patterson

72

42

171%

Austin

89

105

85%

Woods

38

77

45%

The difference in how efficient these three players are with making defenders miss is startling. It’s hard to believe Austin and Woods combined still made fewer defenders miss than Patterson on a percentage-per-play basis.

Next let’s examine how these receivers made defenders miss.

  • Pressure cut: Fake one way and goes another while maintaining forward momentum.
  • Jump cut: Jumps to a side to avoid defender, but no forward momentum.
  • Speed:  Runs by a defender, outruns pursuit angle, or runs around defender.
  • Power: Runs through a contact tackle attempt by moving forward through defender.
  • Spin: Runs through contact or no-contact tackle attempt by spinning around defender.
  • Hurdle: Jumps over a defenders tackle attempt

On many plays I watched, these receivers used multiple methods in combination to make a defender miss them.  I selected the one method each used that was the biggest factor.

“Power,” may seem like it shouldn’t belong on this list, but I think it’s important to note plays where the ball carrier diminished a defender’s position to reduce the contact to a glancing blow, an arm tackle, or the runner attacked first and made contact with an off-balance defender.

Here are the types of moves this trio of receivers used to make defenders miss tackles.

Pass

Name

Pressure

Jump

Speed

Spin

Hurdle

Power

Total

Patterson

6

5

3

2

1

10

27

Austin

6

5

7

3

0

4

25

Woods

4

4

7

2

0

7

24

The number of plays where Patterson and Woods bounced off a glancing blow from a defender matches what one might expect from their size compared to Austin. However, Patterson’s repertoire and frequency of other moves is as prolific in every way with the exception of the speed route.

This just speculation, but from what I have seen, Patterson was often targeted in tighter coverage than the likes of Austin. The slot receiver was a frequent target on crossing routes where the speed component of elusiveness would come into play. In contrast, Patterson played in a system where he ran slants, fades, and other perimeter routes breaking back to the quarterback, which forced him to run through glancing shots. Woods, a receiver in a west coast offense, ran a lot of crosses, fades, and slants and the variety of moves falls between Austin and Patterson.

Run

Name

Pressure

Jump

Speed

Spin

Hurdle

Power

Total

Patterson

7

9

4

0

0

3

23

Austin

3

7

6

0

0

4

20

Woods

3

0

0

0

0

0

3

The use of power in the run game was slightly in favor of Austin. This might be explained by the frequency the West Virginia used Austin as a runner, making the plays a common part of every series so defenses were in better position to force contact.

Punt

Name

Pressure

Jump

Speed

Spin

Hurdle

Power

Total

Patterson

2

5

0

0

0

0

7

Austin

5

3

15

3

0

1

27

Woods

0

4

3

1

0

0

8

Kick

Name

Pressure

Jump

Speed

Spin

Hurdle

Power

Total

Patterson

9

2

3

0

0

1

15

Austin

5

1

8

0

0

3

17

Woods

1

0

1

0

1

0

3

It’s no surprise that the nature of a punt return would allow for more jump cuts and spin moves than a kick off.

Total Touches

Name

Pressure

Jump

Speed

Spin

Hurdle

Power

Total

Patterson

24

16

10

2

1

19

72

Austin

19

16

36

6

0

12

89

Woods

8

8

11

3

1

7

38

Considering what I speculated about the type of moves these players use, I also examined the depth of the zone where these players made receptions:

  • Short: Anything caught from behind the line of scrimmage to 7 yards.
  • Intermediate: Receptions greater than 7 yards but less than 20 yards.
  • Deep: 20 yards or more.

For example, if a player advances a reception from the 5 yard line to the 40 yard line, it will still be counted as a short reception.

Range of Field Where Plays Began

Name

Short

Int.

Deep

Total

Patterson

10

6

0

16

Austin

42

3

1

46

Woods

58

3

2

63

Nothing unexpected thus far, the most opportunity to elude a defender after the catch occurs in the zones of the field with the highest concentration of defenders.

Types of Moves by Range of Field – Short Zone

Name

Pressure

Jump

Speed

Spin

Hurdle

Power

Total

Patterson

3

4

1

0

0

4

12

Austin

6

5

5

3

0

3

22

Woods

4

4

6

1

0

7

22

The sample for Patterson is roughly half that of his peers, but it appears he leans more on power and jump cuts than Austin in the short range of the field. Again, is this due to style or play? A screen pass or slant would call for more jump cuts than a crossing route. It would also include more power moves.

Types of Moves by Range of Field – Intermediate Zone

Name

Pressure

Jump

Speed

Spin

Hurdle

Power

Total

Patterson

3

1

2

2

1

6

15

Austin

0

0

2

0

0

0

2

Woods

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

One of the reasons for the difference in elusiveness appears to be use. Austin’s opportunity to make plays in the open field on intermediate routes was limited in this 12-game sample. Woods’ was non-existent. Based on observation, Woods’ intermediate plays tend to be outs, comebacks, corner routes, or fades with either tight coverage or the catch hugging the sideline.

Still, Patterson has had some of these style routes and demonstrated a level of athleticism above and beyond Woods to generate additional yards –not enough to make this a definitive explanation for the difference in this sample, but something to think about.

Types of Moves by Range of Field – Deep Zone

Name

Pressure

Jump

Speed

Spin

Hurdle

Power

Total

Patterson

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Austin

0

0

0

0

0

1

1

Woods

0

0

1

1

0

0

2

When successful, deep zone plays offer fewer defenders to beat. At the same time deep plays often require adjustments that either result in an unchallenged run to the end zone or the play is down after the catch due to the adjustment or tight coverage.

Woods may lack the elusiveness factor of Patterson and Austin, but his game translates best to the widest range of NFL teams. Photo by Neon Tommy.
Woods may lack the elusiveness factor of Patterson and Austin, but his game translates best to the widest range of NFL teams. Photo by Neon Tommy.

Takeaway

Patterson has made more defenders miss on fewer plays than Austin and Woods. To the naked eye, the Tennessee wide receiver’s open field skills are at a level above the rest of the wide receiver class. It also appears this way when looking at it from this perspective. However, tracking these players in this fashion has also revealed that the type of plays used have a significant influence on the types of moves these players employ and likely the success.

It also raises questions about the type of moves that will or won’t work against NFL defenses. Patterson’s is neither as polished as Woods nor as versatile as Austin. It means that one of two things will have to happen for Patterson to enjoy similar success in the NFL:

  1. Patterson will need to sharpen his route running.
  2. His seemingly other-worldly, open-field skills at the college level will have to translate to the NFL.

All three receivers are fine NFL prospects. This breakdown goes to show that each player has a stylistic fingerprint. Some of these styles may or may not work in the NFL. Others may work best in a specific scheme. Then there are some that have a chance to work regardless of the offense.

Woods may not make as many players miss as Austin or Patterson, but his skill as a route runner and pass catcher should make him a fit in any NFL system. Woods’ big plays come from the catch itself more often than after it.

Austin might show us a facet of his game that wasn’t used much at West Virginia, but it’s more likely that he’ll be a short-to-intermediate threat whose big plays come after the catch. It means he’ll have to become a high-volume receiver in the NFL with the versatility to contribute as a runner is packages that include screens, draws, toss plays and jet sweeps.

Patterson has the physical dimensions, budding skills, and experience to earn a living like Woods, but his special skill for creating after the catch at a higher level could make him a Pro-Bowl player, but if his skill at making defenders miss diminishes versus the enhanced athleticism of the NFL and he doesn’t compensate by learning the techniques that Woods displays to get open, the Tennessee wunderkind could flop. For Patterson it might come down to how special his elusiveness is and this sample reveals it might be good enough.

You can follow Nick Whalen on Twitter @_NickWhalen

For analysis of skill players in this year’s draft class, download the 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio available April 1. Prepayment is available now. Better yet, if you’re a fantasy owner the 56-page Post-Draft Add-on comes with the 2013 RSP at no additional charge. Best, yet, 10 percent of every sale is donated to Darkness to Light to combat sexual abuse. You can purchase past editions of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio for just $9.95 apiece.

Futures: Unknown, Unsung, and Underappreciated

There's a player in this draft who reminds me of Cruz in the sense that he's an unknown and underrated. Photo by Football Schedule.
There’s a player in this draft who reminds me of Cruz in the sense that he’s an unknown and underrated. Photo by Football Schedule.

When you’re in my line of work, the most memorable players are often the unknowns, the underappreciated, and the underdogs. One of the most memorable for me was a player I watched in September 2006, whose performance against a top-ranked Tennessee Volunteers defense was so good that it belied his 24-carry, 72-yard box-score entry.

Here’s what I wrote about him in my game notes:

This was an impressive performance for [prospect], who
demonstrated unequivocally that he is a tough, physical back than can carry the load and get the difficult yardage as well as break the play outside or beat defenders in the open field with his moves and quickness. He rarely went down on the first hit unless the defender made a perfect form tackle.

It’s very impressive how low he can run in short yardage situations to get 2-3 tough yards against stacked defenses. Players bounced off [prospect] repeatedly in this game. This was one of the more impressive efforts I saw from a back all year.

These are notes meant for my own use, otherwise I would have found an appropriate synonym for “impressive,” so I didn’t use it three times in a five-sentence span. This 5-foot-11, 192-pound runner had one of my favorite performances of the year -– a year where Adrian Peterson and Marshawn Lynch were the headliners at running back for the 2007 NFL Draft.

Like most, Lynch and Peterson were my top two backs. However this runner, who wowed me despite a sub-par yardage day, was ranked fourth in my pre-draft rankings. In 2007, 25 running backs went off the board.

Ahmad Bradshaw –- that No. 4 back on my board –- was the last runner taken in the draft; the 40th pick in the seventh round, going 250th overall. If we look at current career production, I was wrong about Bradshaw as my No. 4 back.

He has actually been the third-most productive runner from this draft class.

Players like these are memorable because let’s face it, unknown, unsung, and underappreciated usually means undrafted and unemployed. When a late-round or undrafted player makes his mark, it appeals to the part of us that roots for the underdog.

Whether it’s the small-school prospect with the big-time game, the well-known player whose skills are even better than advertised, or the overshadowed longshot with shocking moments of excellence, my favorite part of studying college prospects is watching talent that flies below the national radar.

Bradshaw’s obstacles towards reaching the NFL radar were injuries, off-field immaturity, and a B-list college program. I can think of others who fit the bill.

Victor Cruz was a small-school prospect with a big-time game. Ray Rice was a well-known college star who proved he was big enough, quick enough, and skilled enough to get the job done as a pro. Priest Holmes and Terrell Davis are great examples of talents that toiled in supporting roles behind talented teammates like Ricky Williams and Garrison Hearst after injuries cost them chances of earning more playing time.

My publication, the Rookie Scouting Portfolio, is a pre-draft analysis of offensive skill players that I publish April 1. (It also has a post-draft addendum.) What I enjoy the most about the April 1 publication is the opportunity to generate rankings where “draft stock” carries little to no weight. It’s a chance to focus more on the talent and less on the business.

This week, I’m sharing one unknown, one unsung, and one underappreciated prospect from my 2013 RSP analysis. I believe each prospect has the talent to out-perform his draft stock. These are excerpts from this year’s RSP that have been re-purposed for this column. It’s a small preview of what you’ll find in the publication.

Read the Rest at Football Outsiders

2013 RSP: Download Now!

A 261-page online publication that provides 1029 pages of play-by-play notes from my evaluation database and 10 percent of your purchase is donated to fight sexual abuse.
A 261-page online publication that provides 1029 pages of play-by-play notes from my evaluation database and 10 percent of your purchase is donated to fight sexual abuse.

Standing at 1290 pages and covering 175 skill prospects, the 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio is now available for download at www.mattwaldman.com. Because a post-draft addendum is now a regular part of the RSP purchase, it has allowed me the luxury to weigh my rankings less on draft stock and more on talent until we see how opportunity knocks. Many of the climbers and fallers in my pre-draft rankings surprised me. I look forward to sharing more of my thoughts about these players and the the process in the coming weeks.

Here’s what my regular readers have to say about the RSP:

  • “Yours is the ONLY publication I ever pay for in fantasy football. Mahalo for the quality!!!” – Jim
  • “I first experienced the RSP last year and after reading several pages, you got me for only god knows how much time you’ll be doing it. I’d prepay this for the next ten years easily. I mean it in the most sincere way, this has become my most anticipated read of the year and once again, I know it will be awesome.” – Dom
  • “BTW, I first purchased your RSP in 2011, won my league that year, had a middling team, repeated in 2012, still a middling team.  How I have used RSP the most is during the season for my waiver pickups, always nice to reference your report when trying to decide between a few players. Thank you again. Oh, btw, the other 11 owners think I am lucky, lol, I am but for different reasons than THEY think 🙂 ” – Warren
  • “You won’t find a better resource. Matt Waldman delivers. Period. Cannot recommend more highly.” – Bob Harris, FSTA Hall of Famer
  •  ” Best pre-draft scouting report on every conceivable guy [at the skills positions] is by @MattWaldman. Very good read – mattwaldman.com.”  –Chris Brown, author of Smartfootball.com and Grantland contributor
  • “Best dynasty rookie document there is. Can’t live w/o it.” – Tim Stafford, Dynasty League Football staff writer.
  • Hey Matt,Just thought you would want to know that I enjoyed the 2012 Rookie Scouting Portfolio so much that I had to buy the other six years, to see what you had to say about previous players. I’ve been playing fantasy football for over 20 years (started at age 11) and I can’t tell you how refreshing it is to see someone put this much effort into analyzing prospects skills, and then filtering that info back to their potential fantasy value.Not sure if you have a running testimonial page but if your ever inclined to do so, feel free to use this email as one, if you wish.Not trying to kiss your butt or anything but your work is really an inspiration for someone like myself.Thank you for your efforts,

    Sean Douglas

For analysis of skill players in this year’s draft class, download the 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio available NOW. Better yet, if you’re a fantasy owner the 56-page Post-Draft Add-on comes with the 2013 RSP at no additional charge. Best, yet, 10 percent of every sale is donated to Darkness to Light to combat sexual abuse. You can purchase past editions of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio for just $9.95 apiece.

No-Huddle Series: Boise State RB D.J. Harper

For a time, D.J. Harper was considered the best back at Boise State - and Doug Martin was on the team . Photo by Football Schedule.
For a time, D.J. Harper was considered the best back at Boise State – and Doug Martin was on the team . Photo by Football Schedule.

Once upon a time, D.J. Harper was the lead back in the Boise State offense over Doug Martin. Two ACL injuries later and now finishing his sixth year of eligibility, Harper is entering the NFL Draft. I remember seeing Harper before the injury and there was no doubt he could fly.

Most doubt Harper will ever be better than Martin in the NFL. However there is more to Harper’s game than speed, which is why the slower, post-injury version of Harper still has a chance to make an NFL roster and contribute to a starting lineup.

In fact, the post-injuries version of Harper still has more speed, burst, and change-of-direction quickness than many NFL starters. He also has an eye-popping skill that, after watching this particular running back class, I’m beginning to think is becoming more prevalent among running backs.

Patience

[youtube=http://youtu.be/ItPbhloob_A?start=74]

Backs with great speed often have an issue with patience – especially those with more straight-line skills. This 1st-and-10 run from a 11 personnel pistol with receivers 1×2 at the BSU 37 is a good example. Watch Harper press the run towards right guard, allowing his guard and tight end to pull across the formation to the left guard’s side, and then bend the run behind the them. All this is done close to the line of scrimmage and it opens a lane off left guard.

Harper makes a decisive cut downhill and up the left hash through this big hole for a quick six yards and runs through some of a wrap by the defensive back hitting his leg. Harper stumbles forward with a hop for another six yards, gaining 12 on the play. I like the second effort and balance as well as the ball security under his sideline arm.

[youtube=http://youtu.be/ItPbhloob_A?start=112]

Here’s another display of patience on the same style play: a 2×1 receiver, 11 personnel set on 1st and 10 with 4:38 in the half from the BSU 20. Once again Harper works behind his pulling guard and tight to the left end and he presses it before working to the edge. Harper demonstrates enough burst to work past the grasp of a backside defender and then turn his pads to back his way another few yards on a six-yard gain. Another nice display of ball security under his left arm.

Reading the Line of Scrimmage

[youtube=http://youtu.be/ItPbhloob_A?start=241]

This is a zone play on 1st and 10 with 8:07 in the third quarter from a 1×1 receiver, 21 personnel strong side I-formation set at the BSU 26. Harper has to deal with some penetration closing the middle creases as his fullback winds to the weak side of the formation.

Harper slows his steps and bounces to the strong side and away from the penetration. I though Harper made a quick decision and move to reach the line of scrimmage and veer away from the defender. He works outside his edge block that seals the inside and spins outside the defender at the flat. Nice job maintaining his balance to get another six yards for the first down on this play.

Balance and Speed

[youtube=http://youtu.be/ItPbhloob_A?start=169]

Harper doesn’t possess that cutback style of his old teammate Martin, whose ability to sink his hips and cut is akin to Ray Rice’s style of running. However, Harper has a quick feet and explosiveness in a gait that is similar to runners like Demarco Murray and Darren McFadden.

This 11 personnel 1×2 receiver set on 2nd and 10 at the Fresno State 38 with 2:20 in the half is a good example of Harper’s Murray-McFadden style on display. Harper makes an excellent cutback outside the left guard to reach the line of scrimmage, sprinting through a big gap where he is fast enough to bend the run a step outside the oncoming safety. Harper earns a quick four yards, runs through the wrap to his leg and spins free of the contact just in time to foil the angle of the cornerback working from the flat.

This is a nice illustration of balance and agility at a pace fast enough to get outside, earn the first down, and then reach the left flat for another 18 yards and the score. Harper finishes with a dive over the pylon and extends his left arm for good measure.

Receiving

What got my attention about Harper’s game is his work as a down-field receiver. Perhaps I haven’t watched enough Boise State games, but this surprised me. Watch Harper exit the backfield, work past the linebacker’s jam, and maintain his course up the seam. And of course, there’s the catch.

[youtube=http://youtu.be/w-Ut-ABx-d0?start=58]

Harper looks like a wide receiver on this play, dragging his feet inside the boundary while extending to the end line. It’s not the only catch of this kind I’ve seen from Harper. Although the video editing is a little too Pleasantville for my liking, it’s a terrific catch.

[youtube=http://youtu.be/gp0Wu7B99yM?start=68]

You’ll probably have to rewind and play a few times to see how Harper works open at the last moment and makes the play with a great adjustment in tight coverage. To catch the ball with this kind of speed and body control is a pro-caliber play. There was a third reception I saw against Georgia in the left flat where he had to make a catch after contact, but I couldn’t find a good replay to display.

If Harper can stay healthy and display this kind of speed, balance, patience, and body control as runner and receiver,  Harper could be shaking hands with his former backfield mate after a hard-fought game where both runners got their uniforms dirty.

For analysis of skill players in this year’s draft class, download the 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio available April 1. Prepayment is available now. Better yet, if you’re a fantasy owner the 56-page Post-Draft Add-on comes with the 2013 RSP at no additional charge. Best, yet, 10 percent of every sale is donated to Darkness to Light to combat sexual abuse. You can purchase past editions of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio for just $9.95 apiece.

Mike Glennon + Blaine Gabbert + Aaron Schatz = A 2011-2013 RSP Mashup

If you got the 2012 RSP and the 2012 RSP Post-Draft that comes with it, you knew Russell Wilson was one of the best values of the 2012 Draft class. Photo by Football Schedule.
If you got the 2012 RSP then you knew Russell Wilson was one of the best values of the 2012 Draft class -or so the guy on my left shoulder with the pitchfork likes to shout. Photo by Football Schedule.

Football Outsiders Chief Aaron Schatz asked me a great question yesterday. One that I imagine some people with my business interests in mind would tell me not to answer within the context of a book season where I’m trying to generate sales. They want me to say – and only say – I was the guy that said last March that Russell Wilson was indeed comparable to Drew Brees in style and had the potential skill to get there. Fortunately, my right shoulder tends to be hunched higher to my ear when I’m writing, so the voice in the white robe and halo is easier to hear.

But let’s be real: If you’re expecting me to be right all the time then you’re giving me and everyone else in this business way too much credit.

The one thing that draft analysts and scouts worth their salt know better than most readers is that they are often wrong. This is tenet No.10 from my first-ever RSP Blog post – Losing Your Football Innocence:

10. Have a slice of humble pie: It’s easy to tell the difference between the average football fan and the guy who grinds tape. The average fan behaves as if he’s a football genius. The average tape grinder knows he’s a football idiot. He also can explain why in great detail. 

Part of adopting a student mindset is having the willingness to accept that you’ll be wrong a lot. Learning requires the ability to accept your errors.

I recently wrote an article about this topic. The subject was an accounting professor whose award-winning research was recently cited in Forbes. Her study dealt with the concept of cognitive dissonance in investing.

What she discovered is that people tend to make emotional choices once they commit to a decision. Moreover, it doesn’t matter if they are an expert in their field. If they’ve taken a stance, they defend that stance even if presented with evidence to the contrary.

In fact, they will seek analysis from sources that aren’t even as credible as the information presented to them in order to get validation that they made a good choice,  even if the result eventually says otherwise.

In essence, we stand by our decisions to placate our egos because it’s often more important for us to be perceived as experts than behave like them. The sad, but comical thing about this is that we all do it if we make a decision before we fully weigh the evidence. I have no problem admitting I do it. The only real cure for this problem is having insight – and that’s a topic for another time…

Hopefully this will help you shed your football-genius innocence and become a student of the game.

I’m sharing this because I think what’s important for those of you considering the 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio for the first time is that my background is in process improvement. I score players in the context of what they do well, where can they improve, and to the best of my knowledge, how they can improve. I also look at my process of evaluation and attempt to do the same thing every year.

I have gradually added a number of components to my evaluation process every year while making slight changes every couple of years to my scoring criteria so I can accomplish what I believe good prospect analysis does: Provide readers a comprehensive view of what a prospect is and could be and some context as to why I have that view so you can see my logic, even if it turns out to be flawed.

This leads me to Schatz’s question about Blaine Gabbert yesterday. I sniped quarterback Carson Palmer from him in the RSPWP2. Seeking alternatives, he looked through the 2011 Rookie Scouting Portfolio and read my analysis of Blaine Gabbert.  It prompted this email:

Why do you think you were so wrong about Gabbert when you rated him the best prospect in 2011? Or, do you think maybe you weren’t entirely wrong and there’s still room for growth because he’s just 23?

Great question.

I was wrong about Gabbert for two major reasons:

  • I didn’t factor his pocket issues with enough weight because I saw examples contrary to the popular opinion about is jitters – especially as a sophomore. 
  • I don’t get to interview coaches an teammates as non-media and I don’t have a private investigator on retainer.

The things I missed about Gabbert was one of the reasons I created additional steps within my evaluation process, which helps me frame and present a player’s potential with greater breadth.

Being wrong about Gabbert thus far hurts the ego, but helped my process. Photo by PDA.Photo.
Being wrong about Gabbert thus far hurts the ego, but helped my process. Photo by PDA.Photo.

In essence, I changed how I rank players. I now incorporate an analysis where I weigh the ease/difficulty of transition with certain skill sets at each position. I now use two scores – the player’s highest checklist score from games I studied and then a Ceiling Score, which is this player’s adjusted, highest possible score based on his flaws and the likelihood he can correct them.

As I rank players, I look at the spread between the scores (potential and reality) and then factor the ease of difficulty of transition with each of the player’s physical, technical, and conceptual flaws. For instance, I have Geno Smith rated lower than many folks but I think his faults have a good enough ease of transition to help him develop into a starting quarterback.

It has also helped me think about players in ways where I think I can better articulate why a player may have starter potential but the sum of his parts does not equal the final product. N.C. State’s Mike Glennon and what I just wrote about him in the 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio as an Overrated Talent is a good example:

I’d be shocked if Glennon wasn’t picked within the first three rounds of the 2013 NFL Draft – pleasantly so. While a prospect with a first-round arm, first-round height, and a resume of experience in the ACC that merits early-round consideration, Glennon is not the sum of his parts.

The “glue” that holds a quarterback’s game together is his attention to detail, his ability to focus amid physical and mental distractions, and his capacity to learn from mistakes. Thus far, I don’t see enough progress from Glennon in any of these areas to trust him with a pick in the first half of the draft.

Glennon is one of the most inconsistent players I’ve watched this year. A good way to determine a quarterback’s attention to detail is to examine his short game. Glennons throws on plays like screens, roll outs, short play action passes, swing routes, and flat routes reveal a player whose footwork is executed with purpose and definition from one throw to the next, but without context of the defense is doing. He often rushes throws without looking at the situation developing ahead of him.

In a sense, he’s a task-oriented quarterback who knows he’s supposed to do certain things but doesn’t address the details enough to do them well. Moreover, Glennon appears to lose sight of the overall picture of a play and he’ll throw the ball blindly. Leadership is about balancing the ability to see in a broad scope (vision) and managing details to the letter (execution) while maintaining a consistent approach to dealing with situations.

All the negative traits in Glennon’s game – rushing throws, lazy play fakes, inconsistent footwork, reckless and blind decision-making, perceiving pressure, and rushing his release – are all on-field signs of behavior that isn’t ready to lead. The N.C. State quarterback has so many large and small details to address in his game and they don’t just reflect a lack of technique, but an indication based behavior that Glennon isn’t ready to lead a group and all of these things are a physical manifestation of an intangible that we often sum up as leadership.

Look at Robert Griffin and Russell Wilson and you’ll see the attention to detail each has. They make mistakes, but the footwork, play fakes, and mechanics of their game are honed. They are consistent and with that consistency comes poise. Teammates respond to this behavior to continue doing the little things well despite adversity dealing a series of blows big and small.

While I’m not completely writing off the possibility that Glennon will address these issues and develop into a quality leader-player, the chances are smaller than average based on what I see from college quarterbacks with good attention to detail who make a successful transition to the NFL.

I think it’s important to find links between on-field behavior and how they relate to “intangibles.” It may not be a statistically-based link, but my job is to try to project the future – not scientifically document the past. I try to use the past data – and stats where appropriate – when possible, but my job is primarily observational. I’m probably one of the more analytic-observational football writers around, if you get what I’m saying.

This leads me to back to Gabbert. Yes, I do think Gabbert can still get better, but this is where I think we get into the touchy-feely side of football. Part of this NFL transition is about crossing the divide from good college player to reliable professional in the locker room, practice field, meeting rooms, off the field, and then of course on Sundays.

These guys suddenly have tons of money, a lot more free time, and no one watching their backs each hour to make sure they lifted, studied, went to class, ate, etc. They also suddenly have grown men counting on them to produce and that pressure is way higher in the NFL than the college game.

Then compress the spread of good and bad skill in the NFL (all players being the top tenth of a percent of college players – probably not a correct number but you get my point) and a lack of maturity can be a bitch to handle. Vince Young should have been a better player. He wasn’t mature enough to work for it. Kurt Warner never gave up and he became a very good one.

Skill-wise, Gabbert has the arm and accuracy. The pocket presence has been an issue, but I will note that Matt Ryan still perceives pressure, drops his eyes from coverage, and makes some Gabbert-like plays to this day. The difference is that it happens with Ryan on a smaller frequency of plays, he wasn’t put on a really bad team, and he was given a stronger coaching staff.

Most important? Ryan handled his transition better. Remember, Ryan and his high interception count as a senior wasn’t considered a great prospect by many come draft time. I liked him – thought he could be a good version of Drew Bledsoe – very good, but never great.

I think it’s less than 50/50 that Gabbert ever becomes the player he could be if the rumors are true that he’s “Blame” Gabbert in meeting rooms and nothing is his fault. However when you look at his arm, base accuracy, mobility, mechanics, and flashes of good decision-making, the sum of his parts still give him promise

It’s why separating potential from reality in a systematic way can be so helpful. At least that is what I’m constantly learning.

And Aaron, I hope that helps.

For analysis of skill players in this year’s draft class, download the 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio available April 1. Prepayment is available now. Better yet, if you’re a fantasy owner the 56-page Post-Draft Add-on comes with the 2013 RSP at no additional charge. Best, yet, 10 percent of every sale is donated to Darkness to Light to combat sexual abuse. You can purchase past editions of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio for just $9.95 apiece.

RSPWP2: Recent Analysis

I've built a Hot Tub Time Machine for Palmer. Too bad there's not enough room for Chad Johnson. Photo by Keith Allison.
I’ve built a Hot Tub Time Machine for Palmer. Too bad there’s not enough room for Chad Johnson. Photo by Keith Allison.

As we get into the meaty portion of the draft phase for the Second Annual Rookie Scouting Portfolio Writers Project, the pick analysis will be less frequent. We’re giving writers more slack to deliver pick analysis after each selection. If they want to write blurbs, they will. If not, we’ll catch them at the end of the draft to deliver more info.

And I’m sure they will want to deliver info when our panel of writers judging this project will want to see their cases made for why they’ve built the foundation of a winner. More on that to come.

Recent pick blurbs that have been posted from the past 2-3 rounds include:

  • Sam Monson on Mike Wallace paired with Peyton Manning and Andre Johnson – there’s also great commentary from regular reader “Samuel,” be sure to check that out.
  • Ryan Riddle on former teammate Marshawn Lynch as a huge value and also a take on Anthony Spencer’s prowess at defensive end
  • Dave Richard mixes youth (G Kevin Zeitler) with experience (WR Roddy White)
  • Cian Fahey delivers another take on drafting pure talent vs. talent for scheme as he discusses cornerback Asante Samuel
  • Yours Truly weighs in on finally taking a skill position player – and a quarterback at that

While not all the picks have analysis, each team in the Draft Room has its picks up to date for your perusal. We also have a report on picks by position. You can follow the RSPWP pick-by-pick on Twitter #RSPWP2.

The RSP Writers project is brought to you by the 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio. Learn more about the 2013 RSP Writers Project and check out the completed 2012 RSP Writers Project where we built teams under a realistic salary cap. You can try it yourself.

 

 

Reads Listens Views 3/15/2013

There are a fair share of Jimmy Graham-sized targets in this draft, but as I finish up my rankings, only a few have a ceiling that is even in the neighborhood of the Saint. Photo by Football Schedule.
There are a fair share of Jimmy Graham-sized targets in this draft, but as I finish up my rankings, only a few have a ceiling that is even in the neighborhood of the Saint. Photo by Football Schedule.

2013 RSP Update

I’m well into publication mode with April 1 approaching fast.  Thanks to all of you who read the blog, follow me on Twitter, and purchase the Rookie Scouting Portfolio publication. Available for download every April 1 (no joke) for going on eight years, the RSP is an online .PDF publication devoted to the play-by-play study of NFL prospects at the offensive skill positions. The publication has a menu that bookmarks the document so you have two types of analysis. The first portion is a magazine-style, pre-draft analysis of 120-150 pages that includes position rankings, player comparisons, skill set analysis of each position, and sleepers.

The second portion is where I show all my work: between 700-800 pages of grading reports, play-by-play analysis of every player and game I watched, and a glossary that defines every criteria in my grading reports. My readers who want the bottom line love the first half of the book and appreciate the transparency of this section. My hardcore readers love the fact that they can dive as deep as they want into these raw play-by-play notes.

Included with the RSP (since 2012) is a post-draft document between 50-70 pages that comes out a week after the NFL Draft with updated post-draft rankings, tiers, team fit analysis, and fantasy cheat sheet with value analysis (Russell Wilson was calculated as the best value last year). Fantasy owners can’t get enough of it.

The RSP is $19.95 and I donate 10 percent of each sale to Darkness to Light, a non-profit dedicated to training individuals and communities on the prevention of sexual abuse. Past years of publications (2006-2012) are available for $9.95 and I also donate 10 percent of each sale to D2L. You can prepay for the 2013 RSP now.

Listens I

[youtube=http://youtu.be/_d_PApKfbA0]

RSPWP2 Update

We’re into the sixth round of the second Rookie Scouting Portfolio Writers Project. We have recruited a writer panel of judges to grade the teams once we’ve finished the draft.

To follow along you can access the draft room any time and choose a team to read commentary on their selections.

One of the biggest questions I see about this project is What is the purpose? 

  • Build a winner this year?
  • Build a long-term winner?
  • Beat everyone else drafting?

The primary answer is we want discussion. Takes on players and how they fit into scheme. Interaction among some of the best people writing about football online in a variety of formats: news, strategy, advanced stats, and fantasy sports. Yes, fantasy sports writers have a rightful place at the table. I’ve had a lot of request for a grid format to view the draft picks. As we get into the middle rounds of the draft, we’ll make an Excel table available for download and update it periodically for your viewing pleasure.

Listens II

The Bridge Quartet – Exidence

Football Reads

Non-Football Reads

Views – South Carolina Tight End Justin Cunningham

[youtube=http://youtu.be/FDCV12XwmIU]

He’s not Jimmy Graham, but Heath Miller is a pretty good ceiling of comparison if you ask me.

Listens III

Trio Subtonic – There We Were