Posts tagged Rookie Scouting Portfolio

How I Would Change The Senior Bowl

January 23, 2013 0 Comments read Matt Waldman

Tom Moore, Senior Bowl Coach Emeritus. Has a ring to it. Learn why the Senior Bowl should become a lyceum for coaching. Photo by Ringfrenzy

I’ll have practice observations from Day Three coming soon, but first I want to share what I would do to take the Senior Bowl into the 21st century if given the power to make major changes. The benefits would far outweigh the costs – especially in a league in its golden age making money hand over first.

Phil Savage is doing a lot to create an infrastructure that will address the minor flaws of the Senior Bowl experience. There is more organization with team interviews at the team hotels. There’s a greater level of separation among NFL team representatives, media, and fans. He has even gotten the NFL to allow fourth-year juniors with degrees to participate – a first. And as I’ve mentioned a couple of times this week, Savage wants the NFL more involved in scouting players it wants to invite to the game as well as encouraging prospects to accept the invitation.

The new director of the Senior Bowl understands that there isn’t much incentive for the highest profile seniors to attend the event. If I were an agent for Geno Smith, Tyler Eifert, or Tavon Austin, I wouldn’t recommend them to accept an invitation. It is common knowledge that 90 percent of the on-field portion of player scouting has already been done by now, why risk an injury before the NFL Combine? At present, the Combine and pro days have a greater perceived impact on a prospect’s draft stock and the prep time to “game” these pseudo-football drills is of precious value to a prospect. A player with a minor or nagging injury has more to lose exacerbating the injury or underwhelming observers at the Senior Bowl than skipping the event altogether.

I can appreciate what Savage is doing to tighten up the event even if what he is tackling is low-hanging fruit. However, he’ll have to make bigger changes if he wants to cut the 25 percent turn-down rate among first-invites to 10-12 percent. Savage and the Senior Bowl staff encouraged NFL team representatives multiple times this week to give feedback on how to make the event better.

If I were a high-ranking official of an NFL team and what I perceive as an outsider looking in is accurate, then I have a number of big changes that I would make to transform the Senior Bowl into a sterling, must-attend event that even the agents of the crème de la crème would have to encourage their clients to go. These are big-picture moves that would make scouting this game easier, enhance the image of the game and the NFL, begin to prepare the players for professional football both on and off the field, and ultimately increase the brand of the Senior Bowl to its customers and sponsors.

Hire Full-Time Coaching Staffs

I recognize the appeal of NFL staffs coaching the Senior Bowl rosters. The perception is that these teams offer players a wealth of football experience, cutting-edge teaching techniques, and it’s all backed by prestige of the NFL shield. This is my fourth year here and I don’t buy it.

The differences in quality and methodology among coaching staffs across the league are vast. Northern Illinois running back Chad Spann spent time with the Colts, Buccaneers, and Steelers during the 2011 season. The structure, the attention to teaching, and the culture of the teams all differed. It’s the same when watching the Lions run a practice compared to the Raiders, Bills, Dolphins, Bengals, or Vikings. The basic intent of some drills may be similar, but the methods, the pace, and the feedback are often worlds apart. Although there where good things I learned from the Raiders wide receiver drills, I would have felt cheated as a Senior Bowl receiver if I saw what the Lions staff did with its players.

One of the major changes I’d make is to ask the NFL to create a budget for a coaching staff with two head coaches and a full complement of assistants. The staff would assist Savage in scouting and selecting players for the event. Since there is only one game for the Senior Bowl coaches every year, the Senior Bowl committee could create programs where these coaches could hold seminars or panels for college and pro coaches to exchange ideas during the offseason. The Senior Bowl could become an incubator for coaching innovation – as my friend Sigmund Bloom would call a “Lyceum for football coaches.”

This job could have a lot of appeal for some of the great coaches of the game who may no longer wish to travel or have the same killer schedule as an NFL team, but still have something great to offer to the game as a professor emeritus of coaching. They could do consulting for NFL teams. Imagine Howard Mudd, Tom Moore, or Tony Dungy as assistant or head coaches-in-residence. The league could even have an NFL scouting school and these graduates or teachers are part of the ground-floor process of narrowing down players to invite for the game. There are a ton of far-reaching innovations from this idea that could prove lucrative for the Senior Bowl and provide long-term benefit to the NFL.

The best value of a change like this one for teams, scouts, and media is that I would require these coaches to agree upon the same drills to run prospects through their paces during Senior Bowl Week. The order, location, and execution of the drills would all be uniform. This would be easier for teams to know where to station its scouts, help the planning committee organize the viewing experience, and most important, make it easier to see how players performed relative to each other.

Add 3-5 Days to the Event

If the Senior Bowl were 10-14 days in length, the event could then become the place where the NFL has its rookie symposium. Although many of these rookies won’t make the NFL, several of them will play professional football of some sort in the CFL or Arena League. Helping these prospects become aware of the pitfalls a professional football life on and off the field can never start too early – especially during a time where players are shopping for agents, financial advisors, and are targeted to accept loans before they even see contracts. Make the Senior Bowl seminars a voice of proactive sanity.

Another benefit of extending the event is that the Senior Bowl should increase its invitation list and add another 22-44 prospects as “taxi squad” invites. They’ll attend the symposiums, study the playbooks, and have the opportunity to meet with teams, but they won’t practice unless a player from an active roster gets hurt or drops out. The additional roster spots give the bubble players a better chance to be prepared than flown down the day of practice and fitted into pads on the field while a coach is giving them a crash course of the practice schedule or scheme. This would reduce the number of players turning down the event and it would also alter the perception that the Senior Bowl is always scrambling at the last minute to fill its rosters.

Make the Mobile the “Official NFL Convention”

If the Senior Bowl could hire full-time coaches, create a coaching institute and farm out consulting, institute a scouting school, and host the Rookie Symposium, the Senior Bowl would no longer be the “Unofficial NFL Convention.” Mobile would become a hub where old and new exchange ideas, players make career transitions to scouts and coaches, and college prospects get top-notch coaching and exposure to wisdom on and off the field to prepare them for the profession. This type of investment would be good for the NFL on so many levels, I can’t see a downside. Can you?

Ezekiel Ansah: Next Man Up in the Potential vs Polish Debate

January 22, 2013 0 Comments read Players

BYU DE Ezekiel Ansah is garnering Jason Pierre-Paul comparisons on social media. Jene Bramel says not so fast. Photo by Mike Morbeck.

The scouting community and NFL player personnel departments love potential. It’s easy to project a player with elite combination of size and athleticism to future stardom. But the gap between potential and production is not trivial in the NFL. Jene Bramel explores this potential versus polish debate through the lens of defensive end Ezekiel Ansah

By Jene Bramel

Ezekiel Ansah is the latest prospect to spark a “potential vs. polish” scouting debate. Listed at 6’6”, 270 pounds, Ansah burst onto the college football scene this year with an athletic style of play that prompted comparisons to Jason Pierre-Paul. In the days leading up to the Senior Bowl, some were suggested that Ansah could be considered in the top half of the first round with a strong performance in pre-draft evaluations.

Such is the ebb and flow of evaluating draft prospects in January. That isn’t to say that Ansah won’t prove worthy of a mid-first round (or better) draft slot by the end of April, but there are multiple reasons to suggest caution.

On tape, Ansah’s athleticism is notable. He was used in multiple roles at BYU after quickly earning more playing time at the start of the 2012 season. That versatility – he was used in a standup edge rushing role and as an interior rusher in addition to more traditional defensive end roles – and his consistent effort to the whistle is endearing to defensive coordinators who need adaptable players in the huddle. Ansah also shows an ability to use his hands to control offensive linemen when playing the run far beyond what’s normally seen in a player who has taken so few college repetitions.

But there are holes in Ansah’s game. He doesn’t show an explosive first step or consistent edge rushing talent. That hurts him against better competition. It’s been evident during Senior Bowl practices and he’ll face much better than the offensive tackles he’s facing in Mobile in the NFL. He also has a maddening habit of turning his back to the line of scrimmage when engaged by an offensive lineman on run plays.

Some of that can be corrected with coaching and further development, but it’s the lack of an elite pass rush (edge rush, bull rush or array of counter moves) and questionable football speed in small spaces that worries me. If I’m looking at a defensive end in the top half of the first round, I want to see at least one elite skill.

Athleticism and versatility are valuable, but they must translate into regular instances of dominance against college competition to warrant such a high draft pick. Scouting is far from an exact science, but it’s critical to avoid an Aaron Maybin while mining for a Jason Pierre-Paul. I think Ansah will be worthy of a late first – early second round pick come April, but it’s not time to jump on the runaway bandwagon just yet.

Senior Bowl: North Squad WRs Day 1

January 21, 2013 0 Comments read Players, Wide Receiver

Oregon State's Wheaton shined on the first day of Senior Bowl practices. Photo by John Martinez Pavliga. — Oregon State Markus Wheaton shined on the first day of Senior Bowl practices. Photo by John Martinez Pavliga.

Every NFL team that conducts a Senior Bowl practice has a different style and process. The Oakland Raiders began and ended with special teams and utilized a lot of scrimmaging in a variety of 1-on-1, 5-on-7, and 11-on-11 situations. The drills I tend to get the most from feature wide receivers and the Raiders practice was no different.

While many people are focused on a receiver’s ability to catch the football in these practices, what has equal if not greater importance is everything a receiver does before the ball arrives. Monday afternoon’s practice included drills to test the craft of each receiver’s ability to establish and maintain separation before the ball arrives:

Agility drills to emphasize footwork and hip flexibility.
Receiver versus corner drills with an emphasis on releases within a five-yard boundary.
One-on-one receiver vs. corner press-man drills with a variety of routes.

None of the receivers I saw on the North squad did anything that altered my assessment of what they have or haven’t shown in their careers. Each of these prospects displayed strengths and weaknesses that I think will ultimately come down to an NFL team’s perception of a player’s fit within the organization and how patient they are with that player to develop. Of course, most of you reading this don’t care about the long view. You want to know who looked good and who struggled.

I don’t blame you. Here’s what I saw with each of the drills listed above and then the 5-on-7 and 11-on-11 scrimmages. Remember, catching the ball in these situations is nice but slightly overrated if the rest of the form, technique, and craft is missing.

This contact takes at least 1-2 steps for Goodwin to recover. He'll have no such leeway against good defenders in the NFL. — As I wrote about last year, this contact takes at least 1-2 steps for Goodwin to recover. He’ll have no such leeway against good defenders in the NFL and he didn’t in Senior Bowl practice.

Agility Drills

Receivers ran through a set of mini cones in a footwork pattern that the coach requested, ending the exercise with a curl inside as the break on the route to catch a pass. The focus of this exercise was to demonstrate fluid hip-turn, precise footwork, quickness, and strong change of direction while keeping the head up and looking down field.

Marquise Goodwin, Texas: Goodwin is a track star with excellent speed, but it was clear from the onset that his hip flexibility needs work. The Raiders coaches gave this feedback about his hips on multiple reps and even pulled Goodwin aside to emphasize the point after his third run through the drill. Goodwin attempted to do what the Raiders staff asked, but his movements were exaggerated and lacked the refined motor movement of someone capable of picking up this technique on the fly.

Aaron Dobson, Marshall: Dobson looked good in this drill. His feet were fluid, his hip turns were sharp for a man of his size (6’2”, 203 pounds), and he demonstrated some explosion making his final break to the football. He isn’t a burner, but he acquitted himself well in this opening exercise.

Chris Harper, Kansas State: The coaching staff asked Harper to pick up his feet during the drill. The 228-pound receiver is quick for his size, but his movement could stand to get sharper. I didn’t see much improvement in subsequent reps after the coach’s feedback.

Markus Wheaton, Oregon State: Wheaton was quick, crisp, and fluid with each rep. He demonstrated quick hips and good control making turns. He also caught the ball well despite some throws that were arriving at awkward windows as he executed his break at the end of each rep.

Denard Robinson, Michigan: They key takeaway from Robinson in this drill was “intent.” Robinson’s movements were careful and intentionally slow to master the precision of the footwork and hip movement with each drill. While I thought this was admirable for a quarterback-turned-receiver, eventually the coaching staff turned up the heat and exhorted Robinson to speed up during the final reps of the exercise. Robinson caught each ball cleanly, but the position is new to him and I’ll be interested to see how much he improves with this drill between now and Wednesday.

Aaron Mellette, Elon: Mellette looked fast and his feet were pretty good, but the hips didn’t move with the alacrity you want to see. He was quick, but the precision was lacking. Mellette caught the ball well and I like the athleticism, but the raw technique on this drill was a preview for the rest of the drills in practice.

Denard Robinson is known for his speed, but naturally this new convert to wide receiver was doing everything in slow motion on Day 1 of Senior Bowl practices. Photo by Adam Glanzman.

Four-Corner Cone Boundaries vs. Cornerbacks

Two pairs of cones demarcated a 10-yard-long x 5-yard-wide boundary. The receivers faced the corners in press-man coverage. The objective for the corners was to force the receivers outside the width of the cones before the receivers reached that 10-yard distance. Lots of hands technique to study in this drill.

Goodwin: Goodwin’s size (5’8”, 179) didn’t do him any favors in this drill. When a corner locked onto Goodwin, the receiver had difficulty working free unless he used a spin move of some type to work loose. The corners repeatedly pushed Goodwin outside the width of the boundary.

Dobson: Dobson had a lot of success with this drill and the coaches praised him for playing big. The Marshall receiver used his hands well in this drill. He often bulled through the jam, or deflected the defenders’ arms and then used his size and quickness to get on top of his opponent.

Harper: Harper got coached up after getting knocked down during his first rep and his subsequent reps incrementally improved. He performed better when he played to his size, but there were moments where he tried to be use quickness to get on top of the corner and it failed. I’ll be interested in seeing if he makes the adjustment to his natural strengths in subsequent practices.

Mellette: Multiple defenders got the best of Mellette in this drill, but has he started to use his 216-pound frame, his reps improved to the point that he began to win some of the action. Mellette is one of those players who might tease an organization because the natural ability is there, but can he accelerate his learning curve to develop into an NFL-caliber receiver. This will be the big question.

Wheaton: Wheaton was the most fluid of the receivers in this drill. He was the best at integrating his hands and footwork, using his hands adeptly to swat away the jam and position his feet to create angles so he could accelerate past the defenders with every rep. He is the most polished receiver of the North squad and there were further illustrations of this fact later in practice.

Robinson: Once again, slow motion was the theme of Robinson’s performances in the drill. I have no notes of him winning these battles. He wasn’t pushed aside as much as held up too long and unable to get on top of the defender.

1-on-1’s, 5-on-7’s, and 11-on-11’s vs. Corners with a Variety of Routes

Dobson: I continued to notice precision and fluid movement from Dobson, who demonstrated a nice mix of physical play and quickness. I watched Dobson integrate his footwork and hands well to get open on a deep fade, but the quarterback underthrew the pass and the cornerback tipped the ball away. The one thing the coaches notice that was a repeat issue came at the end of routes as the ball arrived: Dobson had a tendency to lean back towards the ball rather than attack the ball after his break. I hope to see a more aggressive finish to his routes in subsequent practices.

Goodwin: When Goodwin got a free release, he made defenders pay with his speed. However, he had a lot of wasted, imprecise movement off the line versus quality press coverage. I want to see him make incremental improvement versus press coverage. One of his best plays of the day was a crossing route with a sharp break and good catch in the thick of zone coverage. He did a nice job reaching for the ball over his head, making the grab, and turning up field.

Mellette: The most notable issue with the Elon receiver came in these drills. He had difficulty gaining position to shield the defender from the pass after his break. I like his size and quickness, but his hands technique and the depth and angle of his breaks were lacking.

Harper: He did a strong job of selling some two-move routes although I thought each of these instances the second move into his break was a little ragged and something he’ll need to sharpen. His breaks at the end of routes weren’t as sharp or as quick as the early portion of his patterns. At the same time, he’s decisive and has a nice size-speed combo that allowed him to keep defenders guessing about the tact he’d take with each rep. I did notice that he was a little better when he didn’t have to deal with contact despite the fact he’s the biggest receiver of this group. He beat a corner by two steps on a deep sideline fade up the right sideline, but Syracuse quarterback Ryan Nassib was either late on the throw or simply underthrew the ball by 3-5 yards.

Wheaton: The Beavers receiver worked well back to the football and he did a good job versus off-man technique as well as press coverage. He ran the best fade route of the North practice, gaining early separation with an outside move, slipping inside the defender to get his back to the defender and also buying real estate away from the sideline to make the quarterback’s job easier by giving the passer room to target the receiver at the sideline. Although the quarterback overthrew Wheaton, this was a textbook sideline fade that a receiver like Mario Manningham still doesn’t run consistently as well. On one route, a 12-yard out that looked like the beginning of a double move, Wheaton got the best of the corner so early into the route that the defender had no other choice but pull the receiver to the turf so he wasn’t beaten. Wheaton’s best catch was at the end of 11-on-11’s when he beat his man on a streak up the left flat and made a turning, leaping catch behind coverage on a late, underthrown ball. If Miami quarterback Zac Dysert demonstrates better anticipation, Wheaton has a 50-yard touchdown that he catches in stride.

For more analysis of skill players, download the 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio available April 1. Prepayment is available now. Better yet, if you’re a fantasy owner the 56-page Post-Draft Add-on comes with the 2013 RSP at no additional charge. Best, yet, 10 percent of every sale is donated to Darkness to Light to combat sexual abuse. You can purchase past editions of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio for just $9.95 apiece.

Reads Listens Views 1/18/2013

January 18, 2013 0 Comments read Reads Listens Views

This week on Reads Listens Views: Lance Zierlein with a round of “Microwave Scouting”; Ryan Riddle tells you what it was like to participate in a college all-star game; Andy Benoit previews the conference championships; three books I read this month that I think most of you will enjoy; experimental Latin music; and the 2013 RSP is available for pre-payment.

Prepayment for the 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio is Available

If you’re one of my readers who, over the years, has convinced me to offer prepayment (thank you), now’s the time. The 2013 RSP is available for $19.95 and will be available for download April (as usual). If you’ve purchased the RSP in the past, you can prepay at this link. You also get the post-draft add-on a week after the draft that includes tiered fantasy rankings, average dynasty draft spot data, team fit analysis, sleepers, UDFAs to watch, and dynasty drafting tips. It’s a second magazine-sized publication that is included with the purchase of the pre-draft publication. Past issues (2006-2012) are available for $9.95 apiece and the RSP donates 10 percent of every sale to Darkness to Light to train communities to recognize and prevent the dynamics of sexual abuse.

Senior Bowl

Once again, I’ll be at the Senior Bowl with Jene Bramel and Cecil Lammey. We’ll be covering practices and media night for the New York Times Fifth Down and Lammey’s ESPN affiliate as well as providing analysis and interviews here at the RSP blog. Stay tuned.

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Reads

Ryan Riddle’s First Hand Account of (as a participant) of the East West Shrine Game – I don’t recall Riddle as a player (sorry Ryan), but he can ball as a writer.
Tom Melton’s NFL Draft Blog – Short and sweet practice reports from the Shrine Game.
Word of Muth: San Francisco Clinic –From one lineman to team of others, Muth gives us his review of the 49ers o-line against the Packers last weekend.
Film Room: Conference Championships – Andy Benoit previews the conference championships.
Pre-scouting Senior Bowl RBs – Can’t say I agree with every point Lance Zierlein has here, but it’s a good, quick overview of a half-dozen backs.

Non-Football Reads

Here are three books I’ve read this month and I’d bet most of you will enjoy at least two of them.

Life of Pi by Yann Martel – I’m looking forward to seeing the movie, but the book was so good I might read it again before taking in Ang Lee’s vision of this story about an Indian Boy who is stranded on a lifeboat in the Pacific with a zebra, an orangutan, a hyena, and a Bengal tiger. The story is far less fantastical than it appears. However it is fantastic on every level.
The Financial Lives of Poets by Jess Walter – This is essentially what I hope to hear doesn’t happen to Chris Brown or Chase Stuart in 15 years when mid-life crisis hits. This novel is a lot of fun and will make you laugh out loud.
Killing Johnny Fry by Walter Mosely – Walter Mosely is one of my favorite writers. This is a much different story than his mystery novels – it’s a ‘sexistential novel.’ Not for everyone, but a good read nonetheless.

Listens

Views

Deep sea diving . . . in a wheelchair
All it takes is 10 mindful minutes – Most people assume that meditation is all about stopping thoughts, getting rid of emotions, somehow controlling the mind. But actually it’s … about stepping back, seeing the thought clearly, witnessing it coming and going.

Reads Listens Views 1/11/2013

January 11, 2013 0 Comments read Reads Listens Views

Combine this lunch at Saucy Q with the New York Times Fifth Down Blog Practice Reports and you almost have the complete Senior Bowl experience at home. Photo by Cecil Lammey.

New RSP Blog Menus

I’m always looking for ways to improve content navigation on this site. Yesterday, I added an NFL Draft menu that features links to all player analysis I featured on this blog, Football Outsiders, and the New York Times Fifth Down. These pieces are on individual pages according to the year I published them: 2011, 2012, and (thus far) 2013. Players are listed by position and alphabetized. Hopefully this makes your life easier.

Prepayment for the 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio is Available

If you’re one of my readers who, over the years, has convinced me to offer prepayment (thank you), now’s the time. The 2013 RSP is available for $19.95 and will be available for download April (as usual). You also get the post-draft add-on a week after the draft that includes tiered fantasy rankings, average dynasty draft spot data, team fit analysis, sleepers, UDFAs to watch, and dynasty drafting tips. It’s a second magazine-sized publication that is included with the purchase of the pre-draft publication. Past issues (2006-2012) are available for $9.95 apiece and the RSP donates 10 percent of every sale to Darkness to Light to train communities to recognize and prevent the dynamics of sexual abuse.

Senior Bowl

Views

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Football Reads

Eric Stoner’s Rotoworld Analysis of Bearcat TE Travis Kelce – Based on what I’ve seen thus far, I think Kelce is the best all-around TE in a class that’s loaded with strong prospects.
Alen Dumonjic’s Analysis of Oregon State WR Markus Wheaton – Another one of my early favorites in this draft class.
PowerHouse Football Simulation Game – I’ve met PowerHouse owner Chris Barry a few times. While I just don’t have time to play his game, it’s a great concept with a lot of promise. Check out the video.

Non-Football Reads

F. Scott Fitzgerald’s Secret to Great Writing – A blunt letter that I think more writers need to see.
15 Jazz Albums To Look Out For in 2013
Haiti Then And Now: 3 Years After The Earthquake – A photo story.
Under Construction: The World’s Largest Thermal Solar Plant – A photo story.

Listens

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Reads Listens Views 1/4/2013

January 4, 2013 0 Comments read Reads Listens Views

Has the RSP been your MVP (Most Valuable Publication)? The 2013 edition, like Adrian Peterson, is on schedule (Photo by Langzi). — Has the RSP been your MVP (Most Valuable Publication)? The 2013 edition, like Adrian Peterson, is on schedule to deliver the goods (Photo by Langzi).

Now Accepting Prepayment for the 2013 RSP

I’m spending the weekend with a bunch of Footballguys watching the playoffs and talking shop. Meanwhile here’s some welcome news for those of you who have asked me when you can prepay for the 2013 RSP. The answer is now: If you wish to prepay for the April 1 download of the 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio, you can do so at www.mattwaldman.com. I have already evaluated 130 skill players for the 2013 edition and just like last year, included with the purchase of the RSP will be access to download the wildly popular, Post-Draft Add-On. I publish this updated analysis after the NFL Draft and it includes updated positional rankings, tiered fantasy rankings, ceiling scores, and a ton of post-draft analysis that comes as part of the 2013 RSP purchase. With 10 percent of each sale going to Darkness to Light, it’s a must-have for draftniks, football fans, and fantasy owners.

New RSP Blog Series – The Boiler Room

[People] don’t like to break a player down, look at his particulars. That involves details. Most people get bored with details. Because in order to look at the details, you have to love what you’re doing, and you have to be highly motivated. I loved playing football. I relished the details.

– Jim Brown

One of the challenges involved with player analysis is to be succinct with delivering the goods. As the author of an annual tome, I’m often a spectacular failure in this respect. Even so, I will often study a prospect and see a play unfold that does a great job of encapsulating that player’s skills. When I witness these moments, I imagine that if I were part of the production team at a major network putting together highlights for a draft show or I was working for an NFL organization creating cut-ups for a personnel director, I try to imagine if this highlight will boil down this prospect to his essentials.

That’s the thinking behind The Boiler Room – analysis of what makes a player worth drafting by boiling down as much as I can into a single play. Unlike the No-Huddle Series, The Boiler Room is focused on prospects I expect to be drafted, and often before the fourth round. My first subject of the series will be 2013 Rose Bowl MVP Stepfan Taylor. Read it Monday morning.

Views – Kenny Garret, Kenny Kirkland, Jeff “Tain” Watts, and Robert Hurst Blowing the Roof Off

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UFM9tIKZGjk&feature=share&list=PLX1Nx57UJgZkH87bmhCgXsp0QxzlCVPXZ]

Listens

Greg Cosell interviewed on ESPN – Why he’s come around on Russell Wilson lately.
B.S. Report: Aaron Schatz and Bill Barnwell – Wildcard Weekend Preview.

Football Reads

Adrian Peterson’s amazing, except when the Vikings win – Chase Stuart, Football Accountant. Good stuff.
The Seahawks & the pro-style I-formation – Danny Kelly’s piece on what makes this Seahawks ground game effective.
The Film Room: Vikings-Packers – Andy Benoit’s preview of last weeks’ game is worth another read heading into this weekend.
Postseason Mock Draft – Josh “Sir” Norris provides his latest mock at Rotoworld.

Non-Football Reads

The Lives They Lived – A good series that featured those who died in 2012 by focusing on how they lived.
Living Apart: Fair Housing In America – There were three pillars created to desegregate America. Perhaps the most important is the one that is least enforced.
Segregation Study – See how things of changed (Atlanta) or how they basically stayed the same (Cleveland).

Chicken or Egg: RB Stefphon Jefferson or Nevada Scheme?

January 2, 2013 0 Comments read Players, Running Back

The chicken or egg argument in football is between the individual and the team. One example is junior RB Stepfon Jefferson or Nevada's offensive scheme (artwork by Banksy, photo by Jan Slangen). — The chicken or egg argument in football is between the individual and the team. One example is junior RB Stefphon Jefferson or Nevada’s offensive scheme (Artwork by Banksy. Photo by Jan Slangen).

Nevada running back Stefphon Jefferson declared for the NFL Draft this week. Looking at the numbers, it’s hard to blame him. Although he only had 73 carries as a freshman and sophomore, his junior year blew away all expectations:

375 carries and 397 total touches
5.0 yards-per-carry average
1883 yards rushing
2053 yards from scrimmage
25 total touchdowns

Jefferson only had one game in this year with fewer than 20 carries and seven of those contests were 30-carry workloads. Listed at 5-11, 210 pounds, the junior runner has the build to add another 5-10 pounds, which would make him a prospect with suitable dimensions to become a potential lead back or feature runner if going strictly by these numbers.

It’s also worth noting that Jefferson is a patient runner. He does a good job of pressing a hole and cutting back to the open lane. I’m impressed with how he allows his blocks to develop and hits the hole at a good angle – often doing so with a decisive burst. The problem is that behind all of these positive details is a runner who might be more of a product of this Nevada Wolfpack scheme. In the right NFL system, Jefferson has enough positives to develop into a contributor. The key phrase is “the right NFL system,” because in the wrong one, he might not make the team.

There are several issues that I’ll address in the 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio, but the most glaring one is something that I first hoped were flashes of maturity rather than a deficiency in his game. Most backs I see in the college game tend to use their speed, quickness, and agility to bounce runs outside or attempt risky cutbacks. I’ve coined this tendency as Taking It to The Corner Store. This syndrome can be fatal for a running back’s career, but it generally has a strong recovery rate. Jamaal Charles, LeSean McCoy, and C.J. Spiller recovered nicely. The last known career casualty has been Laurence Maroney.

It’s unusual when a player has the opposite problem and doesn’t possess the cutback skills to bounce runs away from penetration or take advantage of larger cutback lanes to the opposite guard or tackle. So when I first saw Jefferson eschew a cutback lane and lower his head into the line of scrimmage to get what was available ahead, I wanted to believe he was taking a wiser course of action that I criticize many back for ignoring. Unless I see something different in the next few months, this is not the case.

Jefferson lacks the ability to make sharp, explosive, lateral cuts. Like Darren McFadden, he’s more of a run bender than a slasher. McFadden’s ability to bend runs at top speed makes him an exceptional case among NFL runners, because few straight-ahead, speed runners succeed in this era of pro football without pro-caliber, NFL lateral agility. Based on what I have seen from Jefferson, I don’t see a back with McFadden’s speed.

Here are six runs of Jefferson’s from Nevada’s bowl game against Arizona that illustrate why Chris Ault’s pistol attack complements Jefferson’s style while masking weaknesses that could limit the runner’s appeal in the NFL Draft. These runs are representative of the 30-plus attempts I saw from Jefferson against the Wildcats: carries through large holes or attempts where Jefferson could bend a run towards a secondary crease after passing through a large primary hole.

Big Holes, Big Plays

Ault’s run system isn’t purely a gap or zone scheme. For the uninitiated, a gap (or angle blocking) scheme is a ground attack where lineman pull or trap to a specific spot and the runner is suppose to run to that one area of the line and use his strength and speed to get whatever he can through the crease that the line creates. A zone scheme allows a runner to have several options to enter the line of scrimmage and the blocking tends to be slanting in a direction without the pulling of linemen.

Ault uses both methods in his offense and Jefferson’s vision is good enough that he produces well with both styles of plays. However, his style works best with gap schemes because he’s more of a straight-line runner who likes to hit the hole hard and fast. Here’s a 14-yard touchdown with 6:00 in the half that is a great angle blocking play from a 12 personnel pistol set with an unbalanced line and twin receivers on the strong side.

This is one of my favorite pistol runs. because of the alignment of the wing back. Ault has designed this offense so the play can be a gap play, a zone play, a play action pass, or a straight pass. There’s a ton of versatility with this alignment and the added flavor of the receiver “ghosting” behind the runner to add the threat of the end around is just another cool wrinkle. What I love about this as a gap play is that most defenses are use to the concept of a guard pulling around center and a fullback entering the hole, but the placement and use of the wing back is just different enough to make it harder for a defender to see what’s coming at him.

Although the wing back is essentially a fullback and not far from being an offset blocker in an I formation, the angle is just wide enough that when he pulls across the formation the defender can choose the wrong gap or run right through the tunnel and mistake that light on the other side as something less painful than a 255-pound freight train. The linebacker in orange considers the gap outside the puling guard before opting for the gap to the guard’s inside shoulder. Does he see the pulling wing back? If he does, it’s still a tough angle to get good position to hit and shed that block to the ball carrier. Here’s the red zone angle of the play.

Endzone view from No. 38's perspective. — Endzone view from No. 38’s perspective.

No.38 takes one step outside to cover the gap outside left guard.

No.38 is outside the pulling guard and waiting on the runner's approach, but does he really see what's lurking around the corner? Why do I feel like I'm diagramming a shark attack? I like it. — No.38 is outside the pulling guard and waiting on the runner’s approach, but does he really see what’s lurking around the corner? Why do I feel like I’m diagramming a shark attack? Worse yet, I like it.

Once the LB hops back to the inside because of his read of the RB, he's looking headlong into that 255 lb. freight train. — Once the LB hops back to the inside because of his read of the RB, he’s looking headlong into that 255 lb. freight train.

This isn't a hole, it's a large force field. — This isn’t a hole, it’s a large force field.

Jefferson hits this small canyon and goes untouched for the 14 yards to the end zone. Crazy as it sounds, this is one of the smaller craters that the Nevada line blasts in this contest.

Maturity or Agility Lacking?

Here is a 1st-and-10 with 4:22 in the half from a weak side trips, 11 personnel pistol formation. This run appears to be a zone play to left guard with a zone read for the quarterback to keep it around right end according to the position that the defensive end takes.

Jefferson takes the exchange and begins to dip the play to the inside. It’s at this point below where I think there are several ways to read and react to this play.

The elite athlete with great instincts to take risks that coaches at first find themselves on the sidelines screaming “No, no, no. . .yes, yes, YES!!!” is going to anticipate this opening with the yellow arrow before the snap or early after the play begins. He’ll also have the speed and agility to create a lane to work around the tight end and burst into the secondary for a long gain. This is a rarity even among terrific prospects because on the surface it looks like the decision of a really bad player. However the greats often break fundamental rules and get away with it due to special athleticism or anticipation.

The most common decision is the pink arrow to left end. This is where most top athletes with risk-taking, corner store tendencies will try to bounce a run once they work to left guard and don’t see a crease. This is the decision they have to curb when they reach the NFL because the percent chance they break it is much lower than the success rate in college football.

It’s the blue line that is the most sensible, conservative choice. Find the soft spot in the line, lower the pads, and bull through it. Keep the offense on schedule, don’t risk the loss of yardage, and you might possibly break through the line for a big play. In other words, let the defense make the mistake rather than you making the mistake.

This is exactly what Jefferson does. He approaches the soft spot, puts his head down, gets two yards untouched, and then bulls against the backs of his linemen for another four as they push the pile together for a total of six. It’s a mature play and the positive of this choice is that Jefferson can develop into the type of NFL back that will get what his line gives him. It makes him a potentially reliable option. A zone scheme running game will want a more creative running back in situations other than this play where the runner has more room to operate. Let’s look at a play or two that calls for more agility.

Failed Cutback

Here is a two-yard gain on a 1st-and-10 sweep to the strong side of an unbalanced line and twin strong side receivers with 0:58 in the first quarter. The guards pull to the strong side of this pistol formation run and Jefferson either bounces the run outside or, more frequently, works between the pulling guards.

The two pulling guards opt to double team the penetration up the middle.

As Jefferson rounds the corner he has a couple of lanes to chose from. What I see from this play as it progresses is a back with the vision necessary to create, but he lacks the physical agility to execute what he sees happening before him. The runner spots the unblocked middle linebacker early in this play. He’s a player a runner behind two pulling guards is expected to see blocked by one of them, but due to penetration this won’t be the case. Jefferson opts to stretch the play a little more to the outside, but remains patient about his decision.

Jefferson has a few decisions: hit the hole with the middle linebacker, split the tight end and receiver’s blocks at the hash, or work outside the hash to the flat. The first open is a minimal gain at best without some creative thinking. The second option is inadvisable because the defender’s helmet is position in a place where there’s no way Jefferson will split these defenders and get positive yards. The third option require great burst because that same defender on the tight end is in position to work through the block and tackle the runner trying to bounce it outside – and likely for a loss.

This screen shot above is a big reason why I believe Jefferson has the vision, but lacks the physical skills to execute like an elite runner. The Nevada runner opts to take another step or two outside to press the linebacker outside and based on his footwork above, cut behind his inside blocker and force that middle linebacker to overrun his angle. It’s a great idea, but it takes top-flight agility to execute. Matt Forte could do it. Jamaal Charles? No problem. LeSean McCoy could probably add a second move in succession that would increase AA battery sales that day in the Philadephia metropolitan area due to the insane amount of rewinding going on in Eagles fan households.

Unfortunately, Jefferson can’t. Where his feet are position in the shot above is where his momentum must stop and change direction with no wasted movement. If he can do it, he cuts behind the blocker to his left. If not, he skids into the oncoming defenders. The result below shows the skid in progress.

The yellow circle is where Jefferson was and where he needed to be to make this cutback.

The outcome of the play is Jefferson getting hit head-on and knocked backwards before he can change direction. He had to gear down to make this cut back. This is where a jump cut or lateral plant and sharp change of direction makes a huge difference. There were other plays in this game where I’ve seen Jefferson break though a large hole at the line of scrimmage, see a defender making his way into the lane and the runner finding a much smaller secondary lane between two linemen and squeeze through to transform a four-yard play into an eight-yard play. Good vision, but the play didn’t require a sharp cutback.

This one did, and it’s representative of other plays where he misses a chance to execute a cut back or opt to barrel ahead and lower the pads for a minimal gain because he knows the cutback isn’t a part of his skill set. These aren’t the risky type of cutbacks, either. Jefferson has some real positives to his game, but his physical creativity doesn’t match what he sees.

As a straight-line runner with burst, decisiveness, and patience, he reminds me of the best of what I use to see from a back like Michael Bennett, the former Wisconsin star and Vikings starter. Jefferson lacks Bennett’s top-end speed, which is also why I have doubts the the Nevada back may struggle to find a place in the NFL.

Jefferson’s 2012 production makes it a good time for him to declare for the NFL Draft, because it’s unlikely he repeats those numbers as a senior. However, his lack of agility is an indicator that he may have benefited more from great team execution of a good scheme. Throw in his difficulties with pass protection and I’ll be surprised if he has smooth and immediate transition to an NFL lineup.

For more analysis of skill players like this post, download the 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio available April 1. Prepayment is available now. Better yet, if you’re a fantasy owner the 56-page Post-Draft Add-on comes with the 2013 RSP at no additional charge. Best, yet, 10 percent of every sale is donated to Darkness to Light to combat sexual abuse. You can purchase past editions of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio for just $9.95 apiece.

Walk on The Wildside: Notes From the RSP Bunker

December 31, 2012 0 Comments read Walk on the Wild Side

Can you guess a person's native state by his name? Apparently my wife could with Cordarrelle Patterson. Happy New Year (photo by Nashville Corps). — Can you guess a person’s native state by his name? Apparently my wife could with Cordarrelle Patterson. Happy New Year (photo by Nashville Corps).

It’s been a productive summer and fall at the RSP Film Room. I am closing in on finishing play-by-play evaluations of 130 different skill position players as my winter vacation is ending and I thought I’d provide a few highlights of what I’ve seen this week. Most of this is lighthearted analysis in three short segments: My Readers Are Smart…But My Wife Might Be Smarter; Duke Johnson: Signs of a Waldman Family Apocalypse; and Big Nasty.

My Readers Are Smart…

I love when I write about one player and I get numerous questions about a different one. This happened with my analysis of Justin Hunter. The Tennessee wide receiver is a freakish talent, but potentially one of the riskiest players at the top of this draft class because of poor habits on both the practice field and on game day. My readers continued to ask me about his teammate Cordarrelle Patterson. I knew I’d eventually get to Patterson but I waited for my vacation because I figured I was going to see something fun and when I enjoy watching a player, I get so pumped up that I have trouble sleeping if I’m studying games at night. Patterson hasn’t disappointed:

[youtube=https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=hIZwwkdSjiY#t=72s]

His 44-yard run after the catch for a 58-yard gain was just one of many like it. In fact, I wonder if Patterson’s terrific instincts and vision in the open field are making Hunter try to do the same things – and fail miserably at it. Hunter is so gifted, I sometimes think he’s trying to mimic his teammate and is in denial that he can’t match Patterson.

But My Wife Might Be Smarter.

The best highlight of the night was probably what happened after my wife walked into the office, saw Patterson make this run, and asked me his name. When I told her, she said that with a name like that he’s probably from South Carolina. Sure enough, Rock Hill, S.C.

I had to test her further.

“How about Stepfret Williams?”

“Definitely, from the South.”

“Well yeah, but what state?”

“Probably the South a lot of folks up North are scared about – rural Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana.”

Yep, Louisiana. If this were a game at a fair, we would have enough giant stuffed animals to start an E-Bay business if we weren’t banned from the theme park altogether.

Duke Johnson: Signs of a Waldman Family Paradox

My wife went to school at UNC Chapel Hill. According to her, I have to say the Chapel Hill part or else I’m not qualifying it correctly. A native North Carolinian is particular about their UNCs. When I’m feeling like getting a rise out of her I bring up the Tar Hell-Blue Devil rivalry and it’s the only time I get threats about divorce. [Editor’s Note: This was a complete Freudian slip on my part. It is “Tar Heel.” Unless of course, you’re a Dukie.]

“Alicia, what if one of our kids wants to go to Duke?”

“No kid of ours will ever go to Duke. Why are you even asking me such a stupid question?”

“Wait a minute, you mean to tell me that if one of our kids earned a scholarship to Duke, they couldn’t go?”

“Again, this is a dumb-ass question. Our kids will know that Duke is kidding itself when it says it’s the Harvard of the South. Who says that? Harvard is Harvard. Stop. It’s over. You haven’t gotten in. If you have to describe yourself on the back of another school then you know what’s really going on there.”

“So what if our kid earned a basketball scholarship to Duke?”

“Our kid will earn an academic scholarship and will be smart enough to realize that most Duke ball players wind up playing in Europe.”

“What if our kid chooses Duke because there is a specific program that few other schools of its quality offer?”

“Then you’re gonna have to move out and live in Durham with them in an apartment and you ain’t comin’ back home, that’s for sure.”

With lines drawn like these, it stands to reason that the only “Duke” that I can mention in the house without risking a night on the couch is the one who shares my wife’s maiden name and plays at my first university – Miami. Even so, when I invoke his name she gets a look on her face like I named a kid Hitler Rosenberg, or Hashtag Smith. If you haven’t seen the freshman running back, check out these two touchdown runs against Boston College. You’ll be hearing a lot about this ACC Freshman of The Year soon enough.

[youtube=http://youtu.be/7VGs_szTbwo]

Johnson reminds me of that old East Carolina Johnson. Perhaps not as fast, but the new Miami version has even better balance.

Big Nasty

The tight end class might be the gem of the skill positions in the 2013 draft. Cincinnati Travis Kelce is one of many impressive prospects I’ve watched this year, including this weekend. He’s one of the best blockers I’ve seen at the position and because Cincinnati runs a pistol offense, Kelce plays the H-Back role to perfection. His dimensions are Gronkowski-like and he’s a big, aggressive, and nasty run blocker. He also has fluid athleticism and at 265 pounds, you don’t see a tight end move like this unless he has starter potential in the NFL.

[youtube=http://youtu.be/nBIK_P5c6c4]

I know the Washington Redskins have Fred Davis, but as I mentioned to my Football Outsiders cohorts this weekend, if Washington wants to find a player who can take over if Davis’ Achilles tear doesn’t recover sufficiently, or he opts to sue himself and represent both parties in a court of law, Kelce would be a fantastic fit for Robert Griffin. Then the “Shanaclan,” – as my buddy Bloom calls Mike and Kyle – can end the Niles Paul-tight end experiment and keep him as a receiver and kick return specialist.

Happy New Year!

The Rookie Scouting Portfolio Publication: A Q&A

December 30, 2012 0 Comments read Matt Waldman, RSP Publication

New to the Rookie Scouting Portfolio blog? Haven’t heard of the RSP publication? Heard of it, but haven’t given it a try? Learn more about this annual publication that has been available for download every April 1 for the past seven years and why it has become a fave among draftniks and fantasy football owners.

BTW – Best pre-draft scouting report on every conceivable guy [at the skills positions] is by @MattWaldman. Very good read – mattwaldman.com

–Chris Brown, author of Smartfootball.com and Grantland contributor, via Twitter

Q: What is the purpose of the RSP?

The RSP isn’t a draft-prediction publication, it’s an analysis of talent based on a player performance on the field. This can help draftniks learn more about the talent of players without worrying about the machinations of the draft that are often an entirely different animal from talent evaluation. The evaluation techniques for the RSP are designed to target a player’s athletic skills, positional techniques, and conceptual understanding of the game. It also makes a great resource for fantasy football players.

Q: What makes the RSP different from other draft analysis?

I use an extensively documented process and I make the work available for the reader to see – although I don’t send them through a forced death march through the material. As a reader, you don’t have to feel the pain I had writing it – the masochism is provided at your convenience.

Still, the process is important to talk about. It has helped me arrive at high pre-draft grades for many underrated players, including Russell Wilson, Matt Forte, Ahmad Bradshaw, Dennis Pitta, Arian Foster and Joseph Addai. Where it really makes a difference is when I’m studying a player in a game where the competition limits a player’s statistical success and I’m still able to see the talent shine through. Likewise, this process has helped me spot critical issues with players like Stephen Hill, Isaiah Pead, Matt Leinart, Robert Meachem, and C.J. Spiller when others anticipated an early, and often immediate, impact.

Q: The RSP is huge, but you say it is easy to read and navigate. How is it structure? Is it iPad-friendly?

The easiest way to describe the RSP is that it’s an online publication with two main parts:

The front part most people read, which is the same length of any draft magazine you see at the newsstand.
The back part that my craziest, most devoted, and masochistic readers check out – all the play-by-play analysis of every player I watch.

The RSP has a menu that allows you to jump to various parts of the publication so the crazy detail in the back doesn’t swallow you whole and you never return to reality. I continue to provide the back part because many of my readers love to know that I back up my analysis with painstaking work. In that sense they are also sadists, but being the ultimate masochist that I am – I appreciate their sadism.

“The GoodReader app takes anything I want to read in PDF form, presents it very nicely, and makes the document portable and enjoyable. The encyclopedia that you’ve created (which I absolutely love 25% into it) would require someone to peer into his or her computer/laptop screen for a very long time. On an iPad inside that app it bookmarks your place and makes reading long files a joy…AND PORTABLE.”

-Ray Calder

Q: How is The Rookie Scouting Portfolio rooted in best practices?

I managed a large branch of a call center and eventually had responsibility for the performance evaluation of over 70 call centers around the U.S. I began my career from the bottom-up. I was heavily involved in recruiting, hiring, training, and developing large and small teams of employees.I often had to build large teams that competed with a client’s internal call enter and with a fraction of the budget to train and develop in terms of time and money.

We beat them consistently.

One of the biggest reasons was a focus on instituting quality processes. We figured out what was important to us, how to prioritize it’s importance, and how to evaluate our employs in a fair, consistent, and flexible manner to spot the good and bad. Eventually, my company sent me to an organization that provided training for best-practice performance techniques that successful Fortune 500 businesses tailored to their service and manufacturing sectors.

The most important thing I learned that applies to the RSP is best practices for monitoring performance. Although the original purpose for my training was to monitor representatives talking with customers over the phone, these techniques also made sense to apply to personnel evaluation in other ways. Football is one of them.

Think the NFL couldn’t use a best-practice approach? Read about its current evaluation system and what former scouts have to say about the management of that process and you’ll think differently. The RSP approach makes the evaluation process transparent to the reader and helps the author deliver quality analysis.

Another “best practice” I’m implementing in 2012 is “giving back.” Ten percent of each sale in 2012 is going to charity.

Q: What do readers think of the RSP?

I collect these emails like one of my favorite pizza joints in Colorado collects napkin drawings from customers and places them all over the walls of its restaurant. If you have one you want to send me, please feel free. I’ll add them my list. Here are some of them below:

“If you don’t buy the RSP, be prepared to get dominated in your rookie draft by someone that did.”

– Jarrett Behar, Staff writer for Dynasty League Football and creator of Race to the Bottom.

“In complete awe of the 2007 Rookie Scouting Portfolio via @MattWaldman — Incredibly in-depth analysis that required time & football smarts”

– Ryan Lownes, NFL Draft analyst, writer or DraftBreakdown.com.

“Any diehard #Dynasty #fantasyfootball fan should go get @MattWaldman’s Rookie Scouting Portfolio bit.ly/I4fOa2 You’ll thank me later”

-@JamesFFB NFL Draft analyst, enthusiast, and writer for DraftBreakdown.com and Bleacher Report.

“For someone like me who doesn’t closely follow the college game, there is nothing I have found even vaguely measuring up to your thoroughness and point by point analysis of the draftable rookies. Among my favorite things is that at the core you rely on play rather than comparing stats produced or combine numbers. Measurables I can get anywhere, but numbers offer little perspective on what they mean or what factors together created them. I want to know what a guy looks like out there, who plays fast – rather than who runs fast in shorts with no one to dodge or avoid. Which WRs can and can’t run routes or consistently get separation or catch with their hands or fight off defenders to make contested catches. Your exhaustive package gives me a basis to work from including a careful look at every significant player. I can read and add the views and comments and stats I want to like ornaments on the Christmas tree – where that tree is the foundation of player abilities that you weave together into a ranked whole.

I have no way to know how right or wrong your conclusions are. You certainly don’t shy away from controversial evaluations. But overall, for just plain understanding of who the rookies are, how they play and what we might expect in the NFL – I don’t know of anything close. After reading this tome, I would feel blind and naked walking into a rookie draft next year without having that insight. My huge thanks!”

–Catbird, Footballguys.com message boards

“Love your work. I’ve subscribed to your RSP for the past 3 years and it is my bible for dynasty league rookie drafts.”

– David Liu

“In our business, we are able to access many different types of reference materials. The Rookie Scouting Portfolio stands above the rest for one simple fact: it is more comprehensive than anything else I have seen. Matt Waldman is head and shoulders the best fantasy football expert I have had on the air, and his expertise starts well before the players get to the NFL with analysis and game film study of the incoming rookie class. I can’t recommend the RSP highly enough.”

– Ian Furness
Host, Sports Radio 950 KJR
Seattle, WA

“All I can really say at first is “Wow!” There is just a TON of great and useful information packed into that report. I thought I’d give it a quick glance during my lunch hour and I found myself reading quite a bit of it over the next 2 hours. I like the way everything is laid out. It’s easy to understand and covers all the items necessary to make it a top notch scouting report for the fantasy footballer.

– Tim Huckaby

“IMHO this is a MUST read. Matt really does the work and tells it the way he sees it. Had a couple of GREAT picks this year with Austin Collie and and I think Stafford. In prior years, he has lead me to Ray Rice in a PPR no less and Mike Sims Walker… If you are like me in a Zealots league, go back and read the prior years as it helps with the RFA/UFA process.”

– Tony Madeira

Hey Matt,

Just thought you would want to know that I enjoyed the 2012 Rookie Scouting Portfolio so much that I had to buy the other six years, to see what you had to say about previous players. I’ve been playing fantasy football for over 20 years (started at age 11) and I can’t tell you how refreshing it is to see someone put this much effort into analyzing prospects skills, and then filtering that info back to their potential fantasy value.

Not sure if you have a running testimonial page but if your ever inclined to do so, feel free to use this email as one, if you wish.

Not trying to kiss your butt or anything but your work is really an inspiration for someone like myself.

Thank you for your efforts,

Sean Douglas, FantasyInfo.com’

Download the 2012 RSP or purchase past issues (2006-2011)

Under the Radar: ECU RB Reggie Bullock

December 29, 2012 0 Comments read Players, Running Back

Do you know this guy? Then perhaps you should learn about ECU RB Reggie Bullock. Photo by Beth Hart. — Do you know this guy? Then perhaps you should learn about ECU RB Reggie Bullock (Photo by Beth Hart).

Las Vegas native Reggie Bullock was good enough as a high school running back for Alabama, LSU, Florida, Florida State, and Oregon to court him. Academics forced Bullock to opt for Arizona Western, where he earned consecutive 1000-yard seasons, earning the 2010 National JUCO Player of The Year Award. Why is Bullock not on most lists as a viable NFL prospect? Read on.

There are a few numbers that explain why Reggie Bullock is under the radar for the 2013 NFL Draft. One of them is 815-10, the number of rushing yards and touchdowns that the East Carolina transfer has during his final two years of college football. The other pair of numbers is 5’9″ and 178 – a height and weight that few NFL running backs have.

Noel Devine anyone?

I want to say “don’t go there,” but it’s not that simple. Bullock is a different kind of back than the West Virginia runner. Yet, it was size concerns that prompted the Senior Bowl coaching staff to exclude Devine from pass protection drills. Bullock’s physical dimensions will also get called into question, especially after he gutted-out a deep thigh bruise during a 2011 contest against Navy that cost him the rest of the season and, due to the freakish nature of the injury, also could have cost him his leg. By the time Bullock was healthy enough to play, the Pirates were content to roll with Vintavious Cooper, a 1000-yard back in his own right.

Bullock won’t be on the radar of many NFL teams because of his dimensions, but a spread-friendly organization would be smart to do its research because unlike Devine, Bullock can pass protect. Unlike Devine, Bullock looks like a true 178 and not the sub-170 Devine was at the Senior Bowl weigh-ins two years ago. And unlike Devine, Bullock is a more refined down hill runner. Danny Woodhead, Dexter McCluster, LaMichael James, Darren Sproles, and LaRod Stephens-Howling are better points of comparison along the spectrum of small, versatile backs.

I think if Bullock earns enough of a chance to demonstrate some of the things in an NFL camp that I’ve seen him do against Louisiana-Lafayette in this year’s New Orleans Bowl, he could surprise. The odds are slimmer for undrafted free agents, which I expect Bullock to be in May, but the right team at the right time could make all the difference. Two skills that Bullock has that could make that difference is his downhill mentality as a runner and his pass protection skills.

Bullock Between the Tackles

Bullock had 17 carries for 104 yards and 2 touchdowns against ULL because he provided the Pirates a spark and the team opted to ride him in this bowl game. One of these plays was a 1st-and-10 run of 13 yards from a 3×1-receiver, 11 personnel shotgun set with 6:05 in the third quarter. The right guard and center double-team the defensive tackle to the inside and the left guard and left tackle double-team the defensive end to open a hole between the two defenders.

Bullock hits the hole with authority. While it’s not as small of a crease as it appears from this angle, the senior running back repeatedly demonstrates skill with pressing lanes and cutting back through smaller openings than backs with a penchant to take runs to the corner store. Bullock’s running indicates to me that he understands why decisive running with good technique is even more important for a back with his size limitations.

Bullock bursts through the crease with authority and beats the edge defender through the hole for a quick six yards. This is expected of a player with Bullock’s physical skills. What’s unexpected is his balance and downhill mentality in the later stages of the run where many smaller backs try to get too cute. Instead, the ECU runner lowers his shoulder into the oncoming safety, bounces off the hit, slows his gait to avoid a head-on collision with the second safety coming from the right, and spins inside the defender with excellent balance for the score. Here’s the frame-by-frame.

Bullock may never turn into a special player, but this is a special run. The ECU runner had his legs cut at the four and he still manages to contort his body into position to reach the end zone despite only having one foot touch the ground after that contact with the second safety and reaching the end zone. Burst, balance, pad level, decisiveness, and agility are valuable traits for one back to have in the NFL. Louisiana-Lafayette may never be mistaken for an NFL team, but this was an NFL-caliber play.

Pass Protection

I want to focus on his pass protection, because as a 5-9, 178-pound back he’ll need to show that he can do some of this if he wants a shot as a third down, spread runner in the NFL.

Bullock’s first assignment came on 1st and 10 with 14:12 in the half from a 2×1 receiver, 11 personnel shotgun set. He chips the defensive end with his inside shoulder. Considering the size differential between the two players, this is a good hit – and it’s not the only one.

Here’s a 2nd-and-seven from 20 personnel and 1×2 receivers. He’s the lead back in this offset pistol set with 10:12 in the half and he works to the edge of the pocket to take on the blitzing linebacker with good form.

Bullock does a nice job of getting between the defensive end and quarterback early in the play so he can square his body for the impending collision. He then takes a step forward to generate additional space so he lessens the chance of getting knocked into the quarterback.

The only mistake Bullock makes here is to lower his head in the act of delivering a punch to the defender as seen below.

Despite the technique flaw, Bullock gets his hands into the defender, delivers a punch, and turns the defender outside the pocket to funnel him away from the quarterback.

The delivery of the hit is especially good explosion and he follows up the contact with a second punch as the quarterback releases the ball. Telegraphing the hit with the lowered head needs to be corrected immediately or an NFL edge rusher eats Bullock’s lunch. Still, there are good things to work with here.

What I like most of all is the effort and smarts on the fly. Here’s a 2nd-and-10 play with 1:01 in the half that underscores this point. Bullock is the back in 10 personnel. This is a shotgun set with receivers 2×2 where he’s flanking the quarterback over right tackle. ULL blitzes two linebackers off the same side, but layers them in succession to confuse and overload the blocking scheme.

Bullock manages to make two blocks on this play, keep the play alive, and give the quarterback time to make perfect throw on the move to his wide receiver running a deep cross 40 yards down field that should have resutled in a touchdown. After the snap, Bullock crosses the formation to pick up the outside linebacker rushing off left tackle.

Bullock gets square as soon as he crosses the quarterback’s path. This is important because now he has more control to move laterally and use his hands while refining his angle to the pass rusher.

On this block, Bullock’s head is up as he delivers a two-handed punch with his body square to the defender despite needing to refine his body position. The downside of Bullock’s game is that he’s rarely going to have success anchoring against a defender bigger than a cornerback blitzing off the edge. However, the technique is good and it does afford the quarterback time to either release the ball or take evasive action. Hidden behind the offensive line is the second linebacker working around the corner as the first linebacker is knocking Bullock into the pocket.

The quarterback realizes it’s time to bug-out and the left tackle does a good job of helping Bullock with the outside linebacker. Meanwhile the inside linebacker rounds the corner and has a nice angle to the quarterback. Bullock has the presence of mind to see this developing and works outside to address the blitzer. It’s usually enough for a college team to expect a running back to successfully cross the formation and pick up one blitzer. It’s even better if that runner understands to work with the inside rush before working outside if the defense tries to overload that side with multiple blitzers. Bullock not only has to deal with the overload, but a layered look that could have been a disaster.

The linebacker has the advantage on Bullock due to his angle outside, but I like the running back’s hustle to work outside and deliver a push that forces the rusher wide of the quarterback.

There isn’t a day that goes when I’m studying the game where the “game of inches” truism isn’t reinforced with a play like this one. Bullock lays out for the chance to hit the linebacker bearing down on the quarterback and it’s this effort that makes the difference between a sack and what should have been a touchdown pass.

The result of this effort is the quarterback earning room to work to the right flat and throw the ball 40 yards down field to his receiver on a deep cross that hits his teammate in stride.

This play in pass protection and his 13-yard touchdown run demonstrate the Bullock knows he has to give every inch of effort to make something positive happen. He may never be a fantasy football owner’s idea of a dream pick, but on the right team and in the right scheme I think he could be far more valuable to an NFL team than the fact he’s not on the collective radar of most draftniks.

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