In-depth film analysis of NFL Draft Prospects With a Fantasy Football Lens - by Matt Waldman ©2025
Raiders receiver Juron Criner made a play this weekend against the Saints that was typical, if not easier, than what he did at Arizona. I think he could continue to earn time in the starting lineup this year. He has Cris Carter-like hands and body control. Big shoes to fill, but he’s worthy of the compliment if he continues to work. See below.
“Sure he was great, but don’t forget Ginger Rogers did everything he did backwards…and in high heels!”
– Bob Thaves
Cornerbacks don’t wear heels, but there’s a little bit of Ginger Rogers in every good one that has to line up and do the dance with a receiver. Much like Astaire’s underrated partner, there are some misnomers surrounding the cornerback position. The biggest one is that cornerback is a one-size-fits-all position.
The value of a cornerback prospect depends on numerous factors that reflect the style and personnel of the NFL defenses and how they match with the skills and deficiencies of the corner. Does the defense play a lot of zone, off man, or bump and run? Will the corner need to have the skills to play the wide side of the field or does the team have the luxury to use him to the narrow side where he’ll earn more assistance?
North Carolina State cornerback David Amerson whose FBS record-breaking, 13-interception performance in 2011 as a sophomore placed him among the top-five prospects at his position heading into the season, is a good example of a prospect whose skills make his draft stock more volatile than others in his class. Interceptions may heighten a player’s public standing because they tell a positive story, but that one stat is not the book on the junior defensive back.
Darrelle Revis is considered one of the best cornerbacks in the NFL and he has only 19 interceptions in his career. The best one-year interception total Champ Bailey had during his 14-year career is 10 in 2006. To give that more perspective, Bailey just earned his 12th interception during the six seasons since that double-digit year. Since every wise soul from Athens, Georgia, Washington D.C., and Denver, Colorado knows that 70 percent of the earth is covered by water and the rest by Champ Bailey, Amerson’s 13-interception season is a great feat but it doesn’t make him a great cornerback.
Based on 2011 performances against Clemson and Louisville and Tennessee in the 2012 opener, Amerson is not a shutdown corner in the style of Revis or Bailey. These two NFL players have that thing that Ginger Rogers did. If seeking a cornerback with shutdown potential, Alabama’s Dee Milliner and Florida State’s Xavier Rhodes, whose physical, man-to-man style; recovery speed; and ability to bring the lumber against the run make them wiser investments for those NFL shoppers. Read the rest at Football Outsiders.
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More on La Havas later.
To our regulars out there, thanks for playing Fantasy Throwdown, including providing feedback and helping build a great community of fantasy football players.To our mailing list members who haven’t checked in for a while, or since last season, come on over. The regular season is past the halfway mark, but we’re going to continue playing Throwdown all the way through the Super Bowl, one week at a time.Here is a snapshot of things going on this month:
Turkey Day CompetitionIt is back. Or will be next week, that is. Our favourite (note the “u”) holiday that isn’t even a holiday where Mike lives – U.S. Thanksgiving. Three games on the NFL schedule, which is perfect for a little game we like to call Fantasy Throwdown. It will be similar to last year’s hootenanny. Look for details posted early next week.
IDP TournamentThe reason we don’t spell out acronyms like IDP very often is because we know we attract top fantasy football players who can break down expected tackle distribution numbers when stars Ray Lewis and Sean Lee are sidelined. If you qualify – or maybe it is time to learn – sign up for our next tournament that includes more Vontaze Burfict and less Trindon Holliday.
Player vs. Player StatsWondering how your head-to-head record stacks up against Players X, Y and Z? Sure, you could just count the wins and losses in your Game Manager history, but we’ve made it a lot easier. Go to our new stats tool, start typing your username, select and hit submit. Don’t get mad if you find one or two players are bringing your overall win % down. Get even.
Sign Up Now, IDP and Turkey Day
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You probably saw this terrific bicycle kick on Dead Spin, but here it is if you missed it.
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Neodymium is a rare earth mineral. It’s one of strongest of magnets, capable of holding 1000 times its weight. Hybrid cars use neodymium in its engines. Your computers and smart phones use it. Mining it takes enough energy per day to power 50,000 homes and water usage to fill two Olympic-sized swimming pools. Because it’s found embedded near uranium and thorium, the process to extract the neodymium requires safety measures that have been problematic to say the least.
My ignorant, tin-foil hat question of the day is this: If this mineral in small amounts has this type of magnetic capability and our earth rotates and orbits based on magnetic fields then why are we digging it up? I know I have to be missing something about how our planet orbits and how the magnetic fields actually work that doesn’t include this mineral embedded throughout our planet. Otherwise, aren’t we eventually going to screw up the way our planet orbits the sun or how the moon stays in orbit? Considering the demand for the metal is expected to grow by 700 percent in the near future, I’m wondering if this is just another chapter in the book Here Today, Gone Tomorrow: The Shortsighted History of Humanity.
I feel pretty dumb to ask but my lunch hour is spent reading non-football material, and notice “hour” isn’t plural in this instance.
Football Outsiders Film Room: Colts-Patriots – Andy Benoit’s analysis of Andrew Luck’s drop against two-deep coverage is outstanding.
PFF Analysis Notebook: Richard Sherman – Sam Monson does a great job profiling the Seahawks cornerback and why “Revis Island may be about to become an archipelago, flanked by Sherman Island in a sea from which there is no escape for receivers.”
The New Old School – Chris Brown’s piece on Chip Kelly’s offense at Oregon at Grantland.
FishDuck – Rotoworld’s Josh Norris recommended this site for even more great analysis on this cutting edge Oregon offense.
Manti Te’0, The Example – Eric Stoner’s analysis of the Notre Dame linebacker at Rotoworld.
Non-Football Reads
Why Think by Numbers? While it’s difficult for me to buy the entire argument, which by the way probably feeds into this writer’s argument even more, it’s a well-written article that highlights the lack of balance in which we use the various parts of our brains to come to decisions, especially with politics.
Government Spends More on Corporate Welfare Subsidies than Social Welfare Programs – More fascinating stuff from this site focused on the concept of “Empiricism” as a political movement.
Top Georgia GOP Lawmakers Host Briefing on Secret Obama Mind-Control Plot – If you’re wondering why I had that tinfoil hat question about neodymium just realize it must have something to do with the water around Athens, Ga. If Paul Broun wasn’t enough (and yes, I voted for Charles Darwin with pride), now we have an Athens-based group saying our president is using CIA-Jedi mind tricks to sway the country. You didn’t have to vote for Obama to realize this just beats all.
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Lianne La Havas: ‘The Golden Girl of British Music’: I heard this singer-songwriter on the drive to work. Elizabeth Blair writes, “the past year has been very good for La Havas, as she was nominated for a Mercury Prize in the U.K. Stevie Wonder also left her a voice mail message singing one of her songs, and Prince invited her to jam with him.”
Robert Cray Band: Tiny Desk Concerts : He had a big hit in the 1980s with his album Strong Persuader. I think he’s a fantastic writer and bluesman.
If you’re new to the RSP blog or you haven’t tried FantasyThrowdown.com you ought to go over there today. It’s free, one-on-one, weekly fantasy football with drafts that take minutes and are so convenient to do that you’ll find yourself in multiple games before you even realize it. Throwdown has PPR and Non-PPR formats and even IDP challenges. Challenge someone from the Lobby or challenge a friend. Here’s a quick tutorial if you even need one – it’s that easy to play.
For those of you playing Throwodown, here’s the latest news from the site about its Championship round of a recent tourney.
Just like the lead up to the Super Bowl, we took an extra week to finally get to the Championship Round of our Fantasy Throwdown “For The Heck of It” Tournament series. Our reason for the delay is less elusive to the build up the NFL likes to manufacture prior to its annual showcase event. Simply and understandably, Superstorm Sandy knocked some of our regular players out of commission from fantasy football. We certainly hope they were able to weather the storm well enough and are able to return to some semblance of normalcy, if not entirely yet then soon.
Now the Championship Round is ready to be played. Lets wrap up the tournament – or shall I say, tournaments – this week. We started with three, 12-team tourneys featuring representatives from each of the awesome fantasy football websites, Dynasty League Football, Footballguys and Pro Football Focus. Through Round 1 and Round 2, we’ve dwindled the field to a pair of combatants in each tournament to fight for the A-Side Championship, and four runner-ups competing for the B-Side Championship.
Each A-Side and B-Side Champ wins an official Fantasy Throwdown t-shirt. The A-Side Champ wins 7.5 bonus points towards their Leaderboard ranking. The B-Side Champ wins 5 bonus points towards their Leaderboard ranking. Each wins eternal bragging rights, of course, and if we had one of those fancy websites with badges or medals they’d get one of those too. Maybe some day.
There are our combatants. The A Championship is a best-of-three game head-to-head battle. The B Championship is a three game round robin, winner determined by won-loss record and then tie-breaker procedures as applied in prior rounds if necessary.
Now I’d like to announce a rule change we’re going to try for the tournament championship games. This is the “For The Heck of It” tournament series, so we’re going to implement a “For The Heck of It” rule change. The new rule should equally benefit both competitors and add a little more posturing and cunning for these big games.
Trading. Technically, it is like waivers, but I’d like to call it trading. In each championship game, each Throwdown player can trade in one of the players they drafted in exchange for another player not already drafted (or blocked). The past few weeks we’ve really seen an increase in the number of late reported injuries causing some havoc for those drafting early and taking a zero when a player doesn’t suit up Sunday as expected. I’d like to try this trade rule to counter that. It is going to be a manual process, so take note, here is how it works:
That about covers it, we hope. It could prove interesting if players use the Monday night game in their challenge! Remember, this only applies to tournament games this week. We’ll see how it goes. This should help protect players from late week injury news, and maybe it will get people to take a few more risks in their challenges if a good injured player is truly on the bubble.
The tournament games should already be in your Game Manager. Good luck this week
Editor’s Note: Whalen submitted this piece Sunday morning prior to Martin’s 251-yard, 4-touchdown rout of the Raiders defense. Martin did not leave big-play opportunities on the field.
Due to the injury concerns, most high profile RB’s come into the NFL as underclassmen. So despite being a senior, Doug Martin was a running back prospect I was very high on last winter. Martin has a physical tools and a complete game: thick build, quick, agile, powerful, good vision, and solid hands.
Because Tampa Bay selected him in the first round and head coach Greg Schiano was the coach responsible for recruiting Ray Rice at Rutgers a back with similar skills, expectations were high for Martin entering the 2012 NFL season . I decided to watch every touch of Martin’s NFL career to see how he’s doing. Granted, hindsight is 20/20 and no player always makes perfect decisions. The intent of this article is to first show where and why he was struggling and then how he has progressed into a successful NFL RB.
The first four games in Martin’s NFL career were somewhat of a disappointment and some raised concerns about him. After 79 touches, he had only on touchdown and averaged only 3.5 yards per carry. None of the four defenses he faced were in the top 10 for rushing yardage allowed or rushing yards per attempt.
Martin averaged over 4.4 yards per carry during all four seasons of his college career at Boise State, which made his low yards-per-carry statistic a peculiar situation. If I could provide one consistent criticism it would be patience. As Browns offensive coordinator Brad Childress stated about fellow rookie runner Trent Richardson entering the Ravens game, many young runners are in a hurry when carrying the football and fail to let plays develop because they are trying to hard to make something happen when they actually can do more by doing less.
Here are multiple plays of Martin where he doesn’t illustrate enough patience and leaves hidden yardage on the field.
Dallas jumps offside, which makes this a free play for Tampa Bay. The offense runs a power play with the left guard pulling to block the Cowboys’ inside linebacker. Martin gains 7 yards by hitting this play inside. However, Martin misses this cutback (in black) because he finds a crease inside (in blue) and hits that before allowing the play to develop.
This end zone angle from a couple of frames earlier during the play reveals much more to Martin’s decision-making flaw. No.62 is losing his leverage to the inside and the safety (in yellow) is unaccounted for and flowing free from the right side. Yet on the backside of the play, Martin has two receivers in position to help him get into the end zone. The general rule for running backs is to read the helmets of the linemen and flow to the shoulder opposite the defender’s helmet. If Martin is reading the helmet of the defender he makes the cutback towards the receivers to No.62’s outside shoulder. Of course, this is a quick play and even the best runners miss these opportunities. At this stage of the rookie’s learning curve, Martin was missing this a little too often.
Several frames later, No.62 gets beat inside and that safety closes down the running lane. It forces Martin to lower his head and use his power to gain yardage. Looking backside once again, the cutback lane is there and the two receivers are blocking the only second-level defenders in the area. The end result is a seven-yard gain, but with a little more patience from Martin he has a walk-in touchdown.
Second-and-5 from the 7 yard line vs. Dallas.
This is the very next play for Tampa Bay and Martin makes an immediate cutback after the exchange with the quarterback. He rushes the cutback (in blue) and the defenders react immediately. The defender in the yellow circle is meeting the blocker based on Martin’s cut. If Martin would have pressed the hole (in black), the cutback would’ve been less dramatic and he could get downhill faster.
The defender that read the cutback (in yellow) has now defeated his block and approaches Martin. The alley player (in orange) has now squeezed the once promising cutback lane, which forces a minimal gain for the runner. This angle further demonstrates if Martin would have pressed the hole towards the area in black before attempting the cutback to the red area it would led to a run with only the safety between him and the end zone. Martin earns four yards, but as you’re beginning to see, four- and seven-yard carries may move the chains but the expectation for these well-blocked plays was much more. Martin left potential touchdowns on the field.
The very next play, Martin gets the ball near the goal line and cuts too quickly into the hole.
The ideal scenario would be Martin pressing a gap or two (in black) away from the hole to allow the defenders to flow over the top. On this play, I highlighted in yellow the unblocked defender that would flow if Martin had pressed the hole correctly and waited for the cutback. Instead Martin goes straight for the cutback in blue, which is premature due to his depth of seven yards from the end zone.
This angle illustrates why Martin’s cut was ineffective. The defender in yellow didn’t flow very far and Martin is cutting to get to the end zone from six yards away. Two frames later the same defender in yellow is meeting Martin four yards deep in the hole and Doug has nowhere else to turn.
In a backwards way this decision might have worked for Martin if he had chosen this hole initially and then cut to the right (black). The point is that running backs get huge gains when they allow aggressive defenses to flow in one direction and then cut back and Martin could have been productive with a press and cut in either direction. Instead Martin immediate tries to cut back and is lack of of patience results in no gain.
Martin makes a poor choice on this screen play. After catching the pass, he cuts inside of his blockers to the middle of the field (blue). Players should rarely cut to the middle of the field on a screen pass. Reading the initial block is necessary and the desired route for Martin (in black) would take him to the outside with more room to operate.
Multiple frames later, Martin’s poor decision becomes clearer. Surrounded by multiple defenders, Martin’s gain is minimal compared to the 20 yards he should have earned (at least) if he chose the desired path (in black) and have more positive options. One would be to make the defender (in yellow) miss or benefit from his extra blocker to help him get into a crease. Instead he gains just nine yards because of his urgency to make something happen rather than allow the play to develop with just a touch more patience.
I won’t spend much time on this play because it’s simple. Life (black) or death (blue). The unblocked defender is coming off the edge and Martin decides to fit it inside instead of running to daylight.
The end result is a two-yard gain.
During the last three games prior to the Raiders match up, Martin has generated a significant increase in production. His 58 attempts for 296 yards with a 5.1 yards-per-carry average with 2 touchdowns and 8 receptions for 207 yards and 1 touchdown is a massive improvement. Let’s explore his recent positives.
A few frames into this stretch play, Martin has a cutback lane (in blue).
This time he’s patient and doesn’t go right away to the hole. He takes the mature RB route to press the hole (in black) to set up the defense. The defender (in yellow) is responsible for the quarterback Josh Freeman.
Below is a different angle that gives the play more perspective.
It only takes a couple of steps from Martin to make the defense over pursue and leave a nice cutback lane to the left. This makes for a one-on-one match-up with an unblocked defender for Martin and earns him a lot of green grass.
From this angle, it’s easy to see the wall formed from the backside offensive linemen and why the cutback was a good decision. Martin (yellow) only needs to make the defender (brown) miss for a big play. The result of the play is a six-yard gain, but it shows the patience necessary to succeed at the NFL level.
Interesting how a longer run can be considered a more inefficient play than a shorter one, but the context of the blocking scheme, the defense, and the players’ decisions is vital.
This is a few seconds into a draw play against one of the better run-stopping defenses in the NFL, the Minnesota Vikings.
Martin has many options and chooses to cut to his right (black arrow), which leaves him one on one with a defender (yellow).
A second later you can see the defender (yellow) closing on the ball and Martin (red) cutting behind his blocker to find a better path. In past weeks, Doug Martin would have just lowered his shoulder and earned a four-yard gain. But he’s evolving into a runner who is learning when to lower the pads and take what’s ahead of him and when he should be more creative and patient. Running the football is a true balancing act when it comes to decision-making, especially as the speed, knowledge, and athleticism of the opposition is a notch higher than the runner’s previous level of competition.
Two frames later, Martin is one on one with a defender (yellow) in the hole. Notice the pursuit over the top of the defender (brown), this is why pressing the hole on this play is important.
Martin thinks better of the hole because of the defender over top and continues to cut behind his blockers. Martin changes direction all the way left and the defender over top (brown) is now out of position on the cutback. Harrison Smith (yellow) is coming downhill too hard at the point of attack and Doug Martin makes him pay for it.
I apologize for the perspective of the shot above, but it’s the only one to show the pursuit angles of the defense. The defender over the top (brown) is out of position and now trailing Martin (black) who is taking an angle to the sideline. Harrison Smith (yellow) takes his downhill angle too fast and now has to adjust his path in hopes of catching Martin. This play was likely a four-yard gain before the cutback, but Martin transforms it into a 41-yard gain down the sideline. He wasn’t too urgent with his decision-making. Instead the rookie keeps his head up, doesn’t over react, and makes the defense pay for being aggressive. That’s the balance act of running the football that separates NFL-caliber talents for NFL starters.
This is a few seconds into a screen pass where once again he cuts to the middle of the field, but this time it’s a good decision. Doug Martin makes the correct choice by reading his initial block (yellow). The intriguing part is what happens later in this play.
As Martin uses his power to break through two arm tackles, he keeps his eyes down field. His lineman should take care of blocking the safety in orange, but the other safety in blue is coming into play. Martin clearly has his eyes on him and cuts to stay close to his blocker. This is impressive in many ways: difficult to focus down field while breaking two tackles, anticipating the angle of the safety, and the patience to hug the blocker to gain the maximum amount of yards.
From this angle you can see that the other safety (blue) is going to be just a little bit too far away to tackle Martin on this play. Had Martin not hugged this block and anticipated the angle, I don’t think this play goes for a 64-yard touchdown. Good blocking by the offense, but great play by Doug Martin. It’s a subtle adjustment, but the ability to read and react to the play with just a nuance of patience makes all the difference.
The offensive linemen are stretch blocking to the left with a lead blocker taking on the linebacker, mixing in a little bit of a ISO to the play. The Vikings linebacker (yellow) does a great job of taking on the lead blocker deep in the backfield and winning at the point of attack.
Having the designed hole blown up by the linebacker, Martin is forced to cut back. With the unblocked defender (yellow) closing on the backside, Martin does try to fit it inside like he did in the last example against the unblocked defender. He remains patient and jump cuts around the garbage in the backfield.
A few frames later, Martin is around the trash and continuing with the play design. What would’ve been a two-yard gain, Martin turns into nine yards.
The progression of Doug Martin has been impressive. Perhaps he’s become more comfortable with Tampa Bay’s schemes. Perhaps he’s learning the speed of the game. Perhaps he’s become a more patient runner. All I know is that his last three weeks isn’t a mirage, just a glimpse of what’s to come.
Nick Whalen is a former high school quarterback with experience as an assistant student coach with Drake University, Carthage College, and Montana State. He also spent two years as an assistant student coach with Western Kentucky. He has been a quarterback, wide receiver, and defensive back coach for three different high school teams. Whalen is a writer at Dynasty Rogues. Here’s his RSP Writer’s Team and Q&A. You can also check out his piece “What is Wrong with Jay Cutler?” at the RSP blog. Follow Nick at @_NickWhalen.
If you attempt to keep up he’ll run by you. If you try to get in his way he’ll run around you. And in those cases you succeed in sticking close, he’ll leap over you. Tennessee wide receiver Justin Hunter is a 6-4, 200 lb., gazelle in pads.
There are only two players that I have studied in recent years that have the athleticism to even be mentioned stylistically within the same sentence as Randy Moss. The first his Cincinnati wide receiver A.J. Green, who has done enough on an NFL field to convince me that he belongs within the same stylistic tier as the all-time great vertical threat. Give Green a quarterback commensurate with his ability and the Moss-like stats will follow.
The other player is Hunter. While his potential is in the same neighborhood his play has yet to reach the same subdivision. Hunter has experienced his share of big drops this year, including a deep target against Alabama in late October. I watched two of Hunter’s games thus far – this year’s N.C. State game in Atlanta and a match up with Cincinnati – and I came away ambivalent.
In terms of ceiling, you might strain your neck trying to find were Hunter’s upside ends. However, there are basics flaws to Hunter’s game that might as well have him chained to the ground. Both Randy Moss and A.J. Green were refined talents for by rookie standards – and perhaps even by veteran standards. Even Jets receiver Stephen Hill wasn’t as raw as Hunter when I evaluated him last year. When a player like Hunter in a passing game that has a lot of pro-style tendencies is less polished than a former Georgia Tech receiver in a triple-option offensive system, it’s a concern.
Volunteers head coach Derek Dooley has a similar assessment.
“First, it has to happen with more consistency in practice. Justin has got to understand that playing receiver is not always clean and easy [and] that there’s a little grit that you have to do to get open. You’re going to have to get hit. Good receivers are going to make those kind of plays no matter what the circumstance. He’s not there yet. We all want to talk about how he’s this first-round pick and the No.1 pick in the draft and he can be that, but he has never performed to that standard in my opinion. And he knows that. So he needs to focus on his development and what does he do well, what are some things that we have got to keep building on, and how do we get there. He’s got great character, it’s important to him, and he’s got a lot of special qualities as a wide out. But being able to go produce out there week after week is what matters.”
What I hear Dooley saying is that Hunter isn’t working on the fine points of his game in practice. When it’s time to execute he makes mistakes because he hasn’t ingrained all the teachings that the Tennessee program has tried to impart on him. On some level, Hunter has been coasting on his first-round athleticism. Otherwise a head coach – especially a head coach whose father was an SEC head coach and athletic director – wouldn’t challenge his player publicly.
Hunter’s deficiencies aren’t difficult to spot. This is the first part of a series of posts about Hunter and how this fantastic talent is holding himself back from potential greatness.
This is a first-and-goal slant with 2:30 in the third quarter. Hunter is in the slot in a 1×2 receiver, 11-personnel pistol set. N.C. State has a linebacker two steps inside of Hunter and a defensive back three yards over the top of the receiver at the hash. Just before the snap, the linebacker tips his hand that he’s blitzing, which leaves Hunter one-on-one with the defensive back and a likely opening behind the linebacker inside. Both Hunter and his quarterback make this read and are on the same page as the center snaps the ball.
Hunter begins his release from the line of scrimmage with good intensity. His shoulders are over his knees and he is working downhill. A strong release is often a receiver’s best chance to set up a defender early in a route, especially a quick-hitting route like the slant.
Hunter’s first mistake comes just a few steps into his release when he tips off his break by raising his torso, which is a big indicator that he’s about to change direction.
Hunter’s body language is indicating to the defender, “don’t get into a back pedal” because I’m not running behind you. As you can see the N.C. State defensive back is a good listener to body language be he’s on his toes and waiting. You’ll see in the next step that the defensive back also knows that the slant is the most likely route that Hunter will run if his linebacker teammate is blitzing.
Hunter makes a sharp jab step to the outside to set up his inside break, but the defensive back isn’t buying the outside move at all. He plants his outside leg to time his burst inside at the exact same time as the receiver. If the defender were fooled, he would be a step behind or caught moving in the opposite direction of the break. Even a phenom’s physical advantages are diminished on short routes. It’s like the old wrestling adage that all men are the same size when they’re on the mat.
Making matters worse, Hunter’s break lacks control because he slips during the change of direction and exits the break leaning too far forward and out of position to have his hands and arms to adjust to the football. Slants are tight-window passes and expecting perfect accuracy every time is setting the bar too high, even in the pros. A receiver can help his quarterback when he’s in a position to use his back to shield the defender while turning his torso into position to catch the ball in any of the windows that the ball may arrive: ahead, on his body, or slightly behind him. Unless this throw is in front or low and away, Hunter is going to have a difficult time making a reception if the ball arrives within the next two steps of his route.
Just a step later, Hunter is still trying to regain his balance. The receiver’s poor beginning to his route renders his long arms and big hands useless unless the pass arrives at his shins about six inches off the turf. When Hunter regains his footing and his body is upright, his hands and arms are the last – and most important – parts of his body to get in position to catch the football.
Hunter’s hands are far apart and one is palm-side up while the other is palm-side down. If this were the only play I planned to show I’d be cherry-picking my analysis, but I’m going to show this poor hand positioning on two other plays where he has no excuse to demonstrate more technique and polish as a pass catcher. The biggest takeaway from this play is Hunter’s body position before and after his break that telegraphs his intentions to the covering defender and hamstrings his balance when changing direction, which makes his route running inefficient and detracts from his one goal: catching the football.
Hunter manages to pull it together and get his hands close enough that they are in a position to catch an oncoming pass. That’s the good news. The bad news is that Hunter’s hand position isn’t optimal for catching a pass. If this pass were to arrive below the waist, Hunter’s palms-up technique is the proper way to field the ball. This pass arrives just above his waist and behind him and it would be better if he attempts to field this ball with his palms down and his fingers pointing skyward.
The reason has more to do with the ball arriving behind him and the location of the defender rather than the height of the arriving pass. Think of your hand position when you are taking an option and receiving it. A palms-up position in this situation is a passive attempt to catch a pass – it’s “receiving,” in the literal sense. A receiver with his palms up is waiting for the ball to come to him. If I were a coach, one of the little things I’d insist on doing is renaming the position from “receiver,” to “snatcher.” The natural hand position for actively taking an object is with the palms down (or at least sideways) and to amp that action to the level of aggression that I would want from my pass catchers “taking” would evolve to “snatching.” It’s all about ingraining an attitude with a team.
Hunter’s technique flaw comes into focus as the ball arrives. It’s far more difficult for a receiver to extend his arms and catch the ball because his hands aren’t in position to generate the widest possible surface area to control the ball. From a visual perspective, Hunter’s hands are like a landing strip when they need to be a spider web.
This pass requires an aggressive response and there’s no way Hunter can extend his arms to the first available window with his arms in this position to take the football away from his opponent. As the ball arrives, the defender extends his outside arm across Hunter’s chest. If Hunter had his arms extended with his palms up, the defender would have to interfere with Hunter to reach the oncoming pass.
Even if the official doesn’t call a penalty on the defender, Hunter still has a fighting catch to catch the football because his arms will be over the defender’s and his hands will reach the ball first. The defender will have a more difficult time ripping the ball loose with an upward motion than he does with a downward thrust. Hunter would have been in position to lift the ball away unimpeded. That’s the difference between “receiving” and “snatching,” and why hands technique is so important in tight quarters.
Part II: More examples of correctable technique flaws that are holding back Hunter from his vast potential.
For more analysis of skill players entering the NFL, download the 2012 Rookie Scouting Portfolio. Better yet, if you’re a fantasy owner the 56-page Post-Draft Add-on comes with the 2012 RSP at no additional charge. Best, yet, 10 percent of every sale is donated to Darkness to Light to combat sexual abuse. The 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio will be available for download here on April 1, 2013.
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@ToshMarks Think Dwayne Bowe is a top-5 guy next season if he elects to stay w/ Geno Smith in KC?
A: No. As good as Geno Smith can become as an NFL quarterback, and as good as recent rookie quarterbacks have been in their first year in the league, let’s examine some of those situations to understand why the chances of Bowe becoming a top-five fantasy option at receiver is possible, but still improbable if the Chiefs draft Smith in April. Cam Newton helped revive Steve Smith’s career in 2011, and Smith was just outside the top-five – No.6 among fantasy receivers last year – with a total of 79 catches, 1394 yards and 7 scores. Depending on your league’s scoring system, he might have been a top-five guy. Reggie Wayne has a shot to be a top-five receiver this year with Andrew Luck this year. His 54 catches for 752 yards and 2 scores places him in the top 10 in most leagues.
Fortunately for Bowe if he stays in Kansas City, Smith is a pocket passer. This will give the veteran a solid chance to return to his potential as a top-10 fantasy receiver. Two years ago he was the No.2 fantasy receiver in many leagues with 72 catches, 1162 yards, and 15 touchdowns, but Matt Cassel had a year that earned him an invitation to the Pro Bowl. As much as we can project Smith to be an eventual improvement to the Chiefs passing game, I think vaulting Bowe to top-five status during Smith’s first season when he don’t know who will coach the Chiefs, who will coach the Chiefs offense, and what type of offense Kansas City will use to pair with the rookie.
If Smith plays to Newton or Luck’s standard of passing production as rookies, then I think Bowe is a good gamble to crack the top-10. Note that Smith had 7 touchdowns with Newton and Wayne is projected to have 4 scores with Luck this year. Bowe’s top-five season in 2010 was a 15-touchdown affair. I don’t think Bowe is that much better of an option in the red zone than Smith and Wayne. He may be a more user-friendly option for a young quarterback due to his size, but I’m not willing to project more than six to eight touchdowns for Bowe if Smith plays as well as Newton or Luck. That production alone will make it unlikely for Bowe to achieve that kind of production.
Bowe is a good buy-low if you believe he’ll stay in Kansas City and the Chiefs take a high-profile quarterback prospect in the 2013 Draft. Of course, a good or bad buy-low is a hindsight judgment later and a gamble now. You like gamble? We gamble.
@meadsentim Hi Matt! WDIS non-ppr; need two: Harvin, Cobb, and Wayne. Thanks!
A: If you’re seeking upside, Harvin and Cobb are the best two options because of their big-play ability and use in the red zone. Wayne only has two touchdowns this year. You could say Wayne is “due” but I prefer to think he’s just not a good red zone option this year due to the Colts young offense and the priority defenses place on defending the veteran in that area of the field. Dolphins cornerback Sean Smith has played good football while covering primary receivers during the month of October.
Despite the lack of red zone love, Wayne is probably the safest play because Harvin faces a stifling Seahawks defense and Cobb draws the Cardinals. If Jordy Nelson returns this week then Cobb isn’t going to see as much time against Patrick Peterson, which makes him a nice gamble if you’re seeking a high-upside option. However, I think Cobb will be the biggest gamble in that situation – he’s capable of fantasy WR1 production, but his downside will be WR4, or worse. Harvin is a physical player and combined with his speed, I think he’s capable of performing as no less than a fantasy WR3 this week. Wayne has the least upside, but the least downside.
@Gbucki19 Matt love your insight on the audible. Desperation PPR play due to Sproles injury: Stephens-Howling or Joique Bell?
A: Thanks GB, I’d go with Bell because of the match-up with the Jaguars, his use in the passing game, and the consistency factor. Stephens-Howling is more likely to break off a long run or pass reception for a score. It’s up to you to decide which you want, but I’d go with Bell.
@Rodriguez350Z Would you give up Spiller and Decker for Mega in PPR? Have Roddy/DMoore/Torrey/Dez/JStew/Trent/RJennings on team?
A: In a dynasty league, I’d see if I could give up Torrey Smith and Spiller for Calvin Johnson because Decker is going to be a more consistent force for the next two to three years if the Ravens offense remains the same during that span. The Ravens don’t use Smith all over the field with as much frequency as the Broncos use Decker. If your trade partner balks at Smith, I’d make the deal even if it didn’t help me this year. In a re-draft league with a winning team I’d stick with what you have because Calvin Johnson’s knees are clearly bothering him and Decker has a fantastic schedule ahead while Spiller is a reasonable fantasy RB2 and Stewart remains a gamble. If your team is questionable to make the playoffs and you need to go big or go home, this trade would be the appropriate gamble.
@StanStanislav Redraft nonPPR – my QBs are crap. Trade Alf Morris for Jon Stewart and Vick? Other RBs are Mathews and DMC.
[youtube=http://youtu.be/2B1QxOmbMZ0]
A: If I could give ALF and Jon Stewart and get Vick in return, I’d do it in a heartbeat – as long as I can get something back for Stewart because he’s funny. As for this deal with the actual football players, I don’t know what you define as “crap” in terms of quarterback play. I’d be more inclined to trade Mathews and see if you can get an upgrade to Vick if the perception on Mathews is higher. It might not be. I’d take the gamble if this is the potential difference between making the playoffs and your team being done by Thanksgiving.
@cappcc Decker, AndreJ, Cobb, Wayne…pick 3. Non-ppr, 50 ret yd/pt
A: Leave Cobb out of the equation because he’s likely to see Patrick Peterson in heavy doses since Jordy Nelson remains a game time decision.
@9ssg Forgot to pull offer last night giving mega/BJGE for Charles/Wayne. Owner accepted this morning after Injury. Am I screwed?
A: Not at all. Charles passed concussion tests, Johnson’s knees are bugging him just as Titus Young and Ryan Broyles are emerging, and Reggie Wayne is one of the steadiest players you can have at the position. If anything, your trade partner might be feeling like he got the worse end of the deal. You have more upside with Charles and Wayne.
@jackedup Then what is Casey worth keeping for as RB or TE?
A: If your league allows you to keep James Casey as a tight end, do it. Just understand that you better be in a pretty deep league to be hanging onto him and Texans tight end Garrett Graham has a lot of skills that are similar to Owen Daniels so Casey is not guarantee as the next man up if Daniels goes down.
@Lukinrats Give Hartline and Leshoure to get D.Moore or trade Wayne to get Cruz?
I’d trade Hartline and Leshoure to get Moore because of Moore’s schedule and the fact that Wayne for Cruz is a bit of wash. Both receivers have good schedules down the stretch so the point differential doesn’t to project to that different. Moore has the upside to perform like a strong, fantasy WR2 that I don’t see with Hartline and Leshoure continues to split time with Joique Bell in a pass-first offense. I’m presuming you have two better starting running backs to do this deal. See if you can get something back for Hartline and Leshoure – a handcuff running back that doesn’t see the field but has a good schedule ahead if his starter gets hurt – or a young receiver with promise if a similar situation were to arise.
SmithingaboutFB:With news of Megatron, would you vault Titus Young over Spiller, Jimmy Graham, or Harvin for flex? (TE not required)
A: If you go more towards the math of week production that somewhat accounts schedule within it then Young isn’t a bump over these three starters. If you don’t heavily factor the weekly math then I’d consider Young over Spiller or Harvin but I think it’s a huge risk and wouldn’t recommend it.
American_Grown: I need a bye-week replacement at TE (Dwayne Allen or Jared Cook) and two of Alex Green, Sidney Rice, and Torrey Smith, thanks!
A: I’d stick with Green another week and as strange as it sounds, sit Smith against the Browns’ Joe Haden and take a shot on Rice. It’s all very close. I would say that Smith has more upside, but also greater downside than Smith. I just think Green is a talented runner who just hasn’t been patient. The team is aware of it and trying to work with him. I think Arizona’s run defense is bad enough that it could be a solid week for him. Plus, get gets the carries. Odds are in his favor that enough good comes from it. Cook probably has more upside, but with Fleener out I’d go with Allen, who I think will benefit this week.
FFonmymind: Which side do you like in this PPR Dynasty Trade: Ray Rice for Doug Martin and Hillman?
A: If I’m in contention this year, I keep Rice. In fact Rice should be a strong RB1 for another three to four years. However, if I’m playing the odds with a team I’m rebuilding, Martin and Hillman are the smarter deal due to upside. Martin already has the feature back role with a coach that recruited Rice to Rutgers and knew how to use him. Martin reminded me of a mix of Rice and Frank Gore so I think that makes the deal appealing. Willis McGahee is playing good football, but Ronnie Hillman has Tiki Barber-like potential. He’s earning enough carries this year that he should be in contention to have a C.J. Spiller-like breakout next. That’s two starters for the price of one big-time starter. If you know that you’re not likely to make the playoffs this year, Rice is probably worth trading away for this duo. See if you can squeeze a draft pick or two from this deal before saying yes.
Lance Zierlein has a gift.
The Sideline View blogger has Jon Gruden down cold (check out the final minutes of this episode). When he told Sigmund Bloom and me about his Crawfish Draft, I knew it was just the kind of nut-job humor that the football-obsessed would love. After you see this, you’ll never think of linemen “redirecting” the same way again. You’ll also learn what Kelechi Osemele and a crawdad have in common.
[youtube=http://youtu.be/I5wF27Sr_80]
Yeah, I said it. Now step up to the challenge and shut me up. It’s free, easy to play, and addictive. Suit up and draft against me in standard, IDP, or PPR formats. I’ll take you down regardless and I promise I won’t make your kid cry. And if you’re scared to play me, challenge a friend – all you need is their email address. Drafts take 10 minutes if you’re both online. Play as much as you like and (except when you face me) trash-talking is optional. Get started here.
I’m a big fan of the writers at FieldGulls.com. While the Seahawks have become my favorite NFC team to follow, I enjoy the analysis Danny Kelly and Mike Chan provide. While the articles are Seattle-focused, the themes are universal to the game.
The Jason Jones Effect by Mike Chan of Field Gulls – Strong analysis from Chan on how good defensive tackle play can ruin the short passing game.
Jermaine Kearse’s possible role with the Seahawks – Ever wonder what a team sees in a player? This piece is a good example of “fit” as an important priority with personnel management.
Geno Smith’s Learning Process – Another excellent piece from Eric Stoner at Rotoworld.
I was weaned on two sports as a boy. You know the first one. The other was boxing. I was fortunate enough to see the final decades where the heavyweight division mattered in sport. The three boxers in these two videos – Earnie Shavers, Larry Holmes, and Ken Norton, Sr. – would have beaten the best heavyweights of the past 30 years when they were in their prime.
Shavers never won the championship, but he was one of the most feared opponents during an era packed with great boxers. If I were to give you my football-obsessed equivalent, Shavers was the Frank Gore of fighters. Check out the 2:55 mark for this one particular knockout if you don’t have time for the full video. It’s a savagely beautiful combination of a counter punch.
[youtube=http://youtu.be/6oVgH6sIBuc]
Holmes was one of my favorite boxers because of his excellent chin and trip hammer of a left jab. One of the most memorable events of my sports childhood was this Holmes-Norton fight below. If you didn’t know, Norton’s son was a star linebacker at UCLA and the 49ers. He’s been a coach with Pete Carroll at USC and now Seattle.
JayeP does a great job of describing its significance in the sport:
“I would consider this the last great fight of the Golden Age of the Heavyweights. This last round pretty much sums up the heavyweight division in the 70’s. I remember seeing this fight on TV. I’m more impressed by it now. Two guys, no technique. Just a burning desire to win, willing to stand in the middle of the ring and trade punches that would kill most of us. By far the greatest 15th round in boxing history.”
I still remember that round because Holmes won the title but left the ring on a stretcher. That kind of effort won me over as a young fan. Here’s that final round (Holmes white trunks, Norton in blue) where they finish this war standing toe-to-toe, throwing and taking everything the other has left.
[youtube=http://youtu.be/IupyEYB-27c]
As much as I have concerns about the future of both sports there’s no denial that like most of us during the 1970s, I was raised with a keen appreciation for hitting.
An Open Letter to Ann Coulter (Best letter ever)
Injection Wells: The Poison Beneath Us
How Companies Have Assembled Political Profiles for Millions of Internet Users
I created this blog to promote my publication The Rookie Scouting Portfolio. If you haven’t checked out this tome of rookie skill player goodness, then I want you to imagine that unassuming little restaurant where the building has character, the service is great, and the food is not to be believed. You want to eat there every day, but you’re racked with ambivalence about sharing your find. You have the urge to tell everyone within earshot that you know who would appreciate the place and, as ridiculous as it sounds, you want to hide your find from everyone so it doesn’t get too big and it loses its charm.
The RSP is like that place to my readers. I get emails all the time from folks who thank me for a publication that exceeds their expectations and that the same time apologizing in advance for not being willing to share it among their friends. I get it. I also thank those of you who weren’t too reticent to share a good thing because it is people like you that help me continue to deliver a publication that takes months of focused work. It also provides me a greater opportunity to give back to Darkness to Light, an organization that provides sexual abuse prevention training to communities nationwide.
Thank you for supporting the RSP. If you haven’t taken that step yet, check out my past publications from 2006-2011 at a price of $9.95 apiece. Readers tell me all the time that the RSP has multiple years of value for fantasy football owners.
You’ve seen this eRumor:
It is time to elect a new world leader, and only your vote counts. Here are the facts about the three leading candidates.
Candidate A associates with crooked politicians, and consults with astrologers.
He’s had two mistresses. He also chain smokes and drinks 8 to 10 martinis a day.
Candidate B was kicked out of office twice, sleeps until noon, used
opium in college and drinks a quart of whiskey every evening.
Candidate C was a decorated war hero. He’s a vegetarian, doesn’t smoke, drinks an occasional beer, and never cheated on his wife.
Candidate A was Franklin D. Roosevelt.
Candidate B was Winston Churchill.
Candidate C was Adolph Hitler.
Although there is no record that Churchill ever used opium and Hitler’s “wife” became his wife shortly before he offed himself in his bunker, there’s a lot of documented truth in these statements that make a sound point: It is sometimes dangerous to deify or damn our public figures for behavior outside their role. This is especially true with athletes.
“To be great is to be misunderstood”
– Ralph Waldo Emerson
Given this point, I shouldn’t find it incredible that the NFL fan base is polarized when Randy Moss is mentioned as one of the greatest receivers in the history of the game. Continue reading
Virgil Green’s 3-catch, 44-yard debut (with 5:34 left in the game) with Peyton Manning might be a surprise to some. However, the tight end from Nevada is a well-known stash for those who get the Rookie Scouting Portfolio publication each April. I don’t know if Green will be an option once Joel Dreessen returns from his injury but he is a talent to keep an eye on despite the fact that his draft status didn’t match my evaluation and Julius Thomas was the more regarded prospect. His performance was indicative of what I saw from him as a collegian. Below is my evaluation of Green prior to the 2011 NFL Draft. Continue reading