Posts tagged Rookie Scouting Portfolio

Boiler Room: Ole Miss RB/PR Jeff Scott

0 Comments read 2014 NFL Draft, Players, RSP Boiler Room Videos (Short Form), Running Back, Wide Receiver
Photo by Lukeamotion.
Photo by Lukeamotion.

Curling into the fetal position was a highlight I considered, but it wouldn’t be fair to a dynamic player.

The Boiler Room Series is my attempt to capture the state of an NFL prospect’s development into a single play. This is an impossible task, but what if you have a limited number of plays to state your case about a prospect to the leadership team within your organization? If you’ve researched enough about this player, a cut-up of choice plays with a short presentation can provide a decent assessment of strengths, weaknesses, and potential fit for the team. You can read the rest of my Boiler Room Series here.

If I were to present one play to an NFL team on Jeff Scott, the Rebels’ fine running back and return specialist, it would be of him turning the corner on a sweep only to drop to his knees and curl into the fetal position at the feet of a defensive back and linebacker. This does not sound like a complimentary depiction of Scott, but it’s more of a reality check to a potential investor.

Truth be told, this is not disparaging commentary on the 5-7, 168-pound running back’s game. If Scott wasn’t tough enough, he wouldn’t be the team’s starting running back in the Southeastern Conference.

One upon a time, friends of mine had an impromptu backyard game in Athens. Most of these guys playing were in the range of 6-1 to 6-4 and 200-240 pounds. They were decent shape for former high school football players. They were the type of 20-something dudes who would think, “I could tackle Jeff Scott.”

One of those guys playing that day was Mark Maxwell, a local guitarist and recording studio owner (scroll down to bottom of link) who is known in town for producing an album of lullabies that have sold 100,000 copies. The local hospital even gave them to newborn parents (buy them here). Mark was a skinny, long-haired musician with glasses.

[youtube=http://youtu.be/edTBdfd1ABI]

He also played college football at Georgia Tech for Bill Curry.

Maxwell was a running back and returned kicks for the Yellow Jackets. According to my friends, when Maxwell fielded the kickoff he left everyone on the ground holding a body part in well under seven seconds.

That skinny, long-haired musician ran through everyone like a hot knife through butter and he did it wearing a pair of sandals. I don’t know if this is accurate, but legend has it this was the day they nicknamed Maxwell “Sandals.”

Like Maxwell – and even more so, considering that Maxwell quit football and transferred to Georgia to study music – Scott’s game is built on speed and agility. He’s a space player on the lightest end of the spectrum of running backs.

Scott knows his limits and testing his mettle on plays that aren’t vital to the outcome of the game isn’t smart of him if he wants to help his team with more touches.   Showing a play of Scott curling into the fetal position at the end of a run would be my reminder that he’s a space player and not a traditional running back.

Like Scott, Dexter McCluster is plenty tough, but well under 200 lbs., he's not a 200-lb. guy you run between the tackles. Photo by Tennessee Journalist Wade Rackley.
Like Scott, Dexter McCluster is plenty tough, but well under 200 lbs., he’s not a guy you run between the tackles. Photo by Tennessee Journalist Wade Rackley.

Develop him as a hybrid or a slot receiver if you see something about his skills that fit into the current offensive scheme.  Just remember that you’re seeking chunk plays from Scott.

How he’ll do that first – and best – is on special teams. Therefore, the Boiler Room play for Scott is a punt return with 32 second in the third quarter versus Texas.

It’s a high, booming punt that Scott tracks to the right hash at the Ole Miss 27. He bounces it a few yards to his right and then uses his terrific agility to reverse field and make three defenders miss good angles to him. Not only does he reverse field, but he layers a second move into that series of steps to beat that third defender and access a lane under a block.

Is this all planned? Of course not, but it’s a demonstration that his open field game unfolds with greater control than his peers.

Scott isn’t big, but give him space and momentum and he’s a tough player to take down. Not long after beating these first three defenders on the return, Scott reaches the 40 and runs through a wrap to his outside leg.

Scott regains his balance and turns down hill bending the run behind a blocker at the 45, avoiding a defender just inside the left hash. At this point, Scott has the advantage with a blocker in the left flat and a swath of open turf ahead at the 45.

He gains another 20 yards up the left flat, picks up a block, and has a convoy of five teammate for the final procession to the end zone – a 73-yard touchdown. Here’s the return.

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nGtAkNYUqOc&start=230&w=420&h=315]

That’s a play that can make the collective psyche of the opposition curl into the fetal position.

For analysis of skill players in this year’s draft class, download the 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio.The 2014 RSP will available April 1 and if you pre-order before February 10, you get a 10 percent discount. Better yet, if you’re a fantasy owner the 56-page Post-Draft Add-on comes with the 2012 – 2014 RSPs at no additional charge and available for download within a week after the NFL Draft. Best, yet, 10 percent of every sale is donated to Darkness to Light to combat sexual abuse. You can purchase past editions of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio for just $9.95 apiece.

Isaiah Crowell

0 Comments read 2014 NFL Draft, Players, Running Back

Isaiah Crowell

Based on talent only, Alabama State’s Isaiah Crowell is the best RB in this 2014 draft class. Talent isn’t everything.  

Watch an Alabama State football game and you’ll see a talented young man in a hurry. Isaiah Crowell has a sense of urgency that transcends the field of play.  Every time  the Hornets’ 5’11”, 215-lb. starting running back hits a crease or turns a corner with the ball in his hands, it feels like there’s more power in his legs than the hunger for another yard, another first down, or another touchdown.

It feels as if Crowell had his way, he’d burst through the line of scrimmage, hit the sideline, disappear through the tunnel of the stadium on a Saturday, and with the assistance of a football time-portal (operating courtesy of high-end quantum physics/magic), emerge 24 hours later onto the grass of an NFL field.

Hell, if a human being could run fast enough and reverse the orbit of the earth to disrupt the space-time continuum and erase a few years of events while retaining the wisdom gained (think Superman saving Lois Lane in the 1978 film), Crowell would lace up those cleats and get to sprinting.

It’s what I see as I watch the latest chapter of Crowell’s college career. If I based my evaluation of Crowell’s NFL potential solely on football skill, he is easily the best running back in this 2014 NFL Draft class. But talent isn’t everything.

When Isaiah Crowell arrived a Georgia as a freshman, there was talk that the Columbus Georgia native had the kind of talent that folks in Athens Georgia hadn’t seen since Herschel Walker. Much of this hype was on the national level among the more photo-friendly, word-conservative publications covering college football. Walker is the standard-bearer for Georgia running backs and Crowell was a worthy challenger to the crown. A 5-star recruit, Crowell’s 850 yards, and 15 touchdowns as a freshman set the stage for at least two more seasons of big-time college football excellence.

In less than a year on campus, he failed a drug test and was charged with two felony counts of illegal possession of a firearm. The charges were later dismissed because there wasn’t sufficient proof that the guns were Crowell’s, but Georgia had seen enough. By spring, Crowell’s career as a Bulldog was over.

Two years into his enrollment at Alabama State, Crowell has no off-field issues, attends class, and has often dazzled on the field. A five-star recruit at the running back position should be good enough to transcend the caliber of football around him.

But questions about Crowell’s commitment to a team environment linger. Unlike Jadeveon Clowney, Crowell is no longer an SEC star and while it means that the spotlight is far dimmer in the SWAC, the microscope is still just as powerful.

Tim Gayle of the Montgomery Advertiser had a revealing interview with Hornets’ head coach Reggie Barlow about Crowell’s tenure with the Alabama State football team. It includes discussion about Crowell removing himself from games after suffering injuries some consider minor and not returning to the field for the rest of those games.

“Just talking to the scouts, they’re thinking that what you’ve done over these four years, that’s what you are,” said Barlow, who played in the National Football League for eight seasons. “The money won’t make you do it. The money will make you lazier and make you miss more because you’ve got guaranteed money. If the guy hasn’t done it over the last four years . . . it’s hard to over come it . . .

When you’re NFL personnel and you’re investing big money in these young adults, you want to know that, one, he’s going to play to the best of his ability to for as long as he can play and you want to know he’s going to practice to the best of his ability and you want to know that he’s going to be a good teammate and not cause strife . . .

Isaiah has grown up and matured a little bit but he stil as to understand that, on that level, there are only three running backs on a roster. There’s a starter, your change-of-pace back that is typically your punt returner and kickoff return. And your third back plays on all special teams.

I’ve had those conversations with him. What if  he goes to the Houston Texans and they have Arian Foster and he’s the starter? You’re the guy that comes in sparingly. Are you willing to be the personal protector on the punt team? Are you willing to run down on the kickoff team? Those are the things he has to answer and be true to because it’ll show. You can’t hide up there.”

As someone who has questioned the party line that many draft analysts have taken with Clowney, an underpaid, minimally protected, front-line employee in the big business of college football, one might expect I’d have the same sentiments about Crowell protecting his long-term interests.  However, I’m more ambivalent about the Hornets’ star running back.

Although he has played through a knee bruise, a sprained left ankle and a swollen foot this season, Crowell’s past transgressions are a huge red flag about the running back’s willingness to be a teammate and not just a star. In this sense, Crowell has generated a potential lose-lose situation when it comes to the draft.

He has to be in peak physical condition to perform like a star if he wants to even earn a shot with an NFL team beyond a spring tryout. Yet if he protects himself at the cost of helping his team, then he plays into the selfish, entitled, and immature label that got Crowell into this predicament in the first place.

The truth is that I haven’t decided where I stand with Crowell. I believe a young man who was on the cusp of earning everything and lost it all must spend a lot of time thinking about ways to best protect his professional future while at the same time showing his potential employers that he’s worth their consideration. I believe a young man might make the mistake of viewing Alabama State as a weigh station or pit stop along his journey to the NFL when he could have become a major leader on this team and had his team raving about him instead of mixed reviews from his head coach.

But I also believe that a young man still has a lot of room for growth and even with the mixed reviews, he’s heading in the right direction. Dez Bryant, Ryan Mathews, and Josh Gordon are three examples front and center into today’s NFL that maturation is a process. As long as the overall trend continues pointing upward, the NFL will invest in talent in need of maturation.

I’m the first to tell you that NFL-caliber talents at running back are a dime a dozen, but there’s a difference between an NFL talent and an NFL feature back. Crowell has feature back talent that has been evident since he set foot on Georgia’s campus.

His 19-touch, 158-yard, 2-touchdown performance as a freshman against a loaded South Carolina defense that included the likes of Clowney, Melvin Ingram (Chargers), Devin Taylor (Lions), DeVonte Holloman (Cowboys), Stephon Gillmore (Bills), and D.J. Swearinger (Texans), is an impressive testament.

Eyes-Feet-Pad Level

Crowell’s first touch in this game is a display of everything that makes him special as a runner. It’s a 15-yard gain on 1st and 10 at the UGA 31 from a 2×1 receiver, 11 personnel set. South Carolina plays a 34 look against Georgia’s zone play to the right. The guards on this play work upfield to the inside linebackers while the rest of the line slants to the right to block the defensive front.

[youtube=http://youtu.be/vTzsE3H8rB0]

The first thing Crowell displays is a terrific link between his eyes and his feet. If you’ve ever wondered what “runs with his eyes,” means, this is a good example. The Georgia running back approaches the line of scrimmage towards the right guard and he sees the nose tackle getting penetration into the backfield.

Crowell cuts behind his center and through the gap off the left guard to cross the line of scrimmage and then dips back to the inside towards the right flat so he can work past his tight end’s block on the outside linebacker. There is some excellent change of direction happening on this play and not all of these moves are from dramatic cuts.

Much of the best footwork is how well Crowell varies his stride length to maintain good balance through traffic, stay downhill, and set up additional blocks. Crowell takes what could have easily been a gain of 2-3 yards in the direction the blocking intended and makes one early detour that still leads back to the intended path and results in a 15-yard gain.

Crowell finishes this run by bouncing outside his tight end’s block and then cuts downhill to work inside his receiver’s block at the 40. He lowers his pads into the safety at the 43, slides under the contact and crosses the 46. Continuous low pad level is one of the things I love about Crowell’s running style, but look how low the safety is on this play. Crowell still manages to get under his opponent’s pads. This is Edgerrin James-like pad level.

Balance

This 28-yard run from a 2×1 receiver, 11 personnel set is the type of play that will get all but the most jaded football fan to think “that’s a man right there.” The Georgia line slants right as its guards work to the second level to attack the linebackers and one again Crowell has to address penetration into the backfield.

The running back takes a step towards the right side of the line at the snap towards the right guard. As he approaches the exchange point with the quarterback, Crowell spots the penetration through right guard working its way to yards into the backfield. Crowell takes the exchange, hops inside the penetration, and cuts downhill at the right hash under the block of his tight end.

Then my favorite part. The linebacker screams into the picture and slams into Crowell’s right shoulder at the same time a second defender shoots low from the opposite side. Crowell’s aforementioned stride as a runner gives him the flexibility to duck his shoulder away from the full impact of the hit and at the same time pull his left leg away from the defensive back’s wrap.

Crowell emerges from the high-low hit that would end play for most college running backs and gains another six yards for the first down as he crosses the middle of he field to the left hash at the 40. He gains another seven before he encounters the cornerback crossing over top at the 30 in an attempt to cut off the runner’s angle. While navigating this defender, Crowell gets wrapped from behind by the linebacker giving chase and finishes the run diving forward to the South Carolina 31.

Watch the rest of this cut-up package of Crowell against South Carolina and you’ll see a runner with a good stiff arm, soft hands as a receiver, and the maturity to grind out the tough yards against a top-notch defense. It’s a performance from a freshman that most seniors with NFL aspirations would envy. It’s tape that also provides credence that what you’re about to see from his Alabama State tape isn’t an illusion.

Burst

This is a 1st and 10 run early in the first quarter from a 2×2 receiver 10 personnel pistol against a 3-4 look from Jackson State. The line slants right and Crowell takes the exchange towards the center before dipping outside towards the left tackle. Waiting in the hole is an unblocked linebacker.

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hSjr0Ldo5XU&start=12&w=420&h=315]

Watch the replay from the end zone angle and note the quickness of the outside-in move paired with a straight-arm to get past the defender in the hole. The best prospects integrate their physical and conceptual skills in a variety of ways and this 14-yard gain is just one example.

Decision Making

A vital part of great vision is balancing the qualities of patience and decisiveness. Every back errs on one end of this spectrum, but the best runners have a knack for striking the right balance more times than their peers. This 84-yard touchdown run has other components worth mentioning such as speed, balance, pad level, and second effort, but it’s the decisiveness and commitment to the crease that I value in light of the runs I showed of Crowell where he has to demonstrate more creativity and patience.

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hSjr0Ldo5XU&start=35&w=420&h=315]

The Hornets’ runner takes the ball from this 1×3 receiver, 10-personnel shotgun set at the 16 and veers toward the left end. If you freeze the tape at the 54-second mark where Crowell is still a step inside the left hash, there’s a good view of the unblocked linebacker working through the gap. I’ve seen my share of backs who rely too much on their athleticism and try to avoid this defender rather than commit to the intended path. Clinton Portis is a great example of a runner with excellent feet and agility who could commit to a crease even if it appears small and the pursuit is looming. Laurence Maroney could not.

Crowell doesn’t hesitate. He beats the linebacker to the crease and hits it hard enough with good pad level to bounce off a hit as he turns down hill and then run through the defensive linebacker four yards down field. Driving through the wrap, Crowell emerges in the open field at the 25, accelerates to top speed at the 35, and maintains his pace the final 65 yards.

More Skills Integration: Stiff Arm and Second-Level Cuts

This play features a second-level cut back that I’ve seen Ryan Mathews, Matt Forte, and Adrian Peterson make in college and the NFL. It’s an 11-personnel pistol set at the Alabama State 34. Not only does Crowell hit this hole with authority, he obliterates the angle of an unblocked safety as he emerges from contact with a defensive lineman.

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hSjr0Ldo5XU&start=162&w=420&h=315]

Crowell has to stiff arm the defensive tackle as he hits his crease and still manages to make a hard cut under the safety without losing stride. The footwork, burst, and balance to make this happen is feature back material. It’s the type of 21-yard run one would also witness in a Seahawks contest featuring Marshawn Lynch.

I asked football writer and former NFL player Ryan Riddle what it was like trying to tackle Marshawn Lynch, Riddle’s teammate at Cal. Riddle said, “It was like trying to tackle the ocean.” Crowell has a similar quality of energy to his running style – even if those possessing little appreciation for the nuance of analysis will blurt out “but Lynch doesn’t run out of bounds.” Of course, those are the same people who just read this passage and thought I said Ryan Mathews is as good as Adrian Peterson.

Crowell has the physical skill and conceptual know-how to develop into a productive feature back in the NFL. He’s the best pure runner in this class. In fact, I think his combination of vision, balance, and burst would have made him a better prospect than any back in the 2013 class. But Crowell isn’t wrapping up his junior year at Georgia with a spotless off-field record. He’s about to learn one way or the other that talent only gets you so far in this world.

I hope this time he’s had enough hard lessons to choose the easier ones.

For analysis of skill players in this year’s draft class, download the 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio. The 2014 RSP will available April 1 and if you pre-order before February 10, you get a 10 percent discount. Better yet, if you’re a fantasy owner the 56-page Post-Draft Add-on comes with the 2012 – 2014 RSPs at no additional charge and available for download within a week after the NFL Draft. Best, yet, 10 percent of every sale is donated to Darkness to Light to combat sexual abuse. You can purchase past editions of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio for just $9.95 apiece.

Reads Listens Views 12/27/2013

0 Comments read Reads Listens Views

This week at RLV: Notes from the RSP Film Room, the Internet’s Dark Lord, Mister Rogers, and Classic Hip-Hop.

Views – 10 Mister Rogers Quotes For Bad Days

Mister-rogers-quote-4

Here’s the link to the rest.

Welcome

If you’re new to the Rookie Scouting Portfolio blog, welcome. Every Friday, I post links to things I’m checking out when I’m online. You may not like everything listed here, but you’re bound to like something. It’s also my chance to thank you for reading my work and encourage you to follow the RSP blog and buy the Rookie Scouting Portfolio publication.

For those of you new to the Rookie Scouting Portfolio, the publication is available every April 1. You can learn more about the RSP here. If you want to see samples of the play-by-play notes I take to write the analysis, you can find them here. And to download past versions of the publication (2006-2012), go here.

Remember, 10 percent of each sale is donated to Darkness to Light, a non-profit devoted to preventing and addressing sexual abuse through community training in schools, religious groups, and a variety of civic groups across the U.S. Here is what the RSP donated to D2L this year. According to D2L, the RSP’s 2013 donation amount was enough to train 250 adults in communities across the country.  I will have an announcement about the 2014 RSP in January. Stay tuned.

RSP Film Room Takes

Bishop Sankey is part of a class of mature runners who may not have flash, but run with substance. Photo by James Santelli.
Bishop Sankey is part of a class of mature runners who may not have flash, but run with substance. Photo by James Santelli.

The Christmas/New Years break gives me an opportunity to hole up in my office and go through marathon sessions of games. Here are some quick takes on players I’ve seen in recent days that you might find worthwhile. To see who else I’ve studied thus far for the 2014 publication available April 1, check out the running list.

Former Oregon tight end Colt Lyerla may not be the best athlete at the position in this class, but he has the best combination of all-around skills if you’re a team seeking a move tight end who can approximate what we saw from Aaron Hernandez in New England. He has the fluid athleticism of a large running back with H-Back skills. When I watch Lyerla play, I understand why there are teams willing to take a chance on him in light of what we’ve seen on and off the field with Hernandez. More than anything, I just want to see Lyerla change his life so he doesn’t waste it – football or no football.

Speaking of New England Patriots tight ends, UMass’ Rob Blanchflower has the dimensions of Rob Gronkowski. There’s going to be a lot of discussion about this tight end at the Senior Bowl because of his dimensions and enough fluid athleticism to exploit the seam. How well he catches the ball against tight coverage and imminent contact will enhance or derail those stylistic comparisons.

A project at the tight end position with some athletic upside is BYU’s Kaneakua Friel. He’s not ready for the NFL, but he has the raw tools to develop into a contributor in all phases of the game.

There’s a lot of underground draftnik love for Southern Mississippi receiver Francisco Llanos. I stumbled across comparisons to him and Victor Cruz. After studying multiple games, I understand the motivation to make that stylistic comparison, but I won’t be one of those writers linking the two players. Llanos has to improve his consistency as a pass catcher and I have questions about his playing speed. I don’t think he’ll be drafted.

In fact, if you’re seeking some underrated slot receiver candidates put Erik Lora near the top of my list. The Eastern Illinois receiver makes plays. As for less productive players in Llanos’ tier who I believe have as much or more to offer are Michigan’s Drew Dileo or BYU’s J.D. Falslev.  

The lesser known receiver enjoyed watching was Coastal Carolina receiver Matt Hazel. Fluid, athletic, and sure-handed.

Speaking of sure-handed, I enjoyed watching Arizona State running back Marion Grice. Between Grice, Bishop Sankey and Ka’Deem Carey, what this class lacks in overall flash, it compensates with maturity between the tackles. Grice is an excellent receiver with basic technique, strong effort, and good diagnostic skills as a pass protector. There are some plays that I think I see speed and acceleration from Grice that’s NFL-caliber and others where it seems absent. I look forward to seeing if I can get a better handle on it at the Senior Bowl.

In Case You Missed It/What’s Ahead at The RSP Blog

  • Boiler Room: CU WR Paul Richardson – See the anatomy of a sick catch.
  • Futures: TE Jace Amaro (Saturday)
  • Futures: DE Jadeveon Clowney – Why I don’t think “mailing it in” would have matter if that’s what Clowney did this year. And I don’t think he did.
  • Senior Bowl Reports (late January) – I decided to apply for media credentials as the RSP rather than do joint work with other groups. You’ll find most of my takes and practice reports here.

Listens

[youtube=http://youtu.be/hzfTqVSyLl8]

Reads (Football)

Reads (Non-Football)

Listens 

[youtube=http://youtu.be/Hs8a1mNEhRc]

The marimba solo after the statement of the melody is fantastic.

Views – The Root of The Problem

[youtube=http://youtu.be/pFYb4gKEFl4]

They money speaks louder than the words. Corporations may be filled with human beings, but they don’t behave as human beings. Until we recognize this difference, we’re stuck with our outrage.

Listens

[youtube=http://youtu.be/TKGnMSYbnJ0]

Rest in peace Yusef Lateef

Reads Listens Views 12/20/2013

0 Comments read Reads Listens Views
I’ve shown this before, but it’s worth seeing again: This is how big Africa is relative to the rest of the world.

This week’s RLV: Dexter Gordon, Doug Farrar on Blake Bortles, Mike Tanier’s All-Snyder Team, and our poet laureate on the President.  

If you’re new to the RSP blog, welcome to my weekend post Reads Listens Views. This is my chance to post links to articles, performances, and photos I’ve found in recent weeks that I want to share. Some of this content has to do with football, but most of it doesn’t. You might not like everything in this post, but chances are you’ll like something.

Listens – RIP Horace Silver

[youtube=http://youtu.be/yttc-i_vA8I]

Great jazz composer and I’m understating it. He was the equivalent of a gateway drug to get into the music.

Thanks

I have a great base of readers. For those of you new to the Rookie Scouting Portfolio, the publication is available every April 1. You can learn more about the RSP here. If you want to see samples of the play-by-play notes I take to write the analysis, you can find them here. And to download past versions of the publication (2006-2012), go here.

Remember, 10 percent of each sale is donated to Darkness to Light, a non-profit devoted to preventing and addressing sexual abuse through community training in schools, religious groups, and a variety of civic groups across the U.S. Here is what the RSP donated to D2L this year.  I have an announcement about the 2014 RSP in January. Stay tuned.

Listens – Smetena Die Moldau 

[youtube=http://youtu.be/gTKsHwqaIr4]

Not bad for a deaf man, eh?

Reads (Non-football)

Listens – I Know You Got Soul . . . 

[youtube=http://youtu.be/fUii3L4Fqok]

Views

Dolphins

Reads (Football)

Listens – Dexter Gordon

[youtube=http://youtu.be/7Msqw94XfKk]

No Huddle Series: Missouri WR L’Damien Washington

0 Comments read 2014 NFL Draft, Players, Wide Receiver
L'Damien Washington has the build and athleticism of A.J. Green, but he needs to go to finishing school to model this NFL star's game. Photo by Wade Rackley
L’Damien Washington has the build and athleticism of A.J. Green, but he needs to go to finishing school to model this NFL star’s game. Photo by Wade Rackley

The 2014 installment of this series begins with a rough around the edges receiver with the physical talents of A.J. Green and Justin Hunter.

The No Huddle Series is an on-field profile of prospects with the talent to develop into NFL contributors, but they are projected as talents with mid-to-late round draft grades. The 2014 installment of this series begins with Missouri’s L’Damien Washington, a rough around the edges receiver with the physical talents of A.J. Green and Justin Hunter. In the neighborhood of 6’5″, 204 lbs. and a stopwatch speed in the 40 around 4.35-4.4, there’s more to Washington than his Underwear Olympics portfolio that catches my attention.

Washington plays with reckless abandon, contributes on special teams, and despite gaps with his catching technique, he has good hands. If I’m a part of an organization that believes in targeting high-upside players that it can teach the skills to play the position – and knows without reservation that its coaches have the track record of developing said raw lumps of clay – Washington is exactly the type of player I’m targeting.

Athletic Grace And Focus

This touchdown on 1st and goal with 6:30 in the third quarter against Texas A&M is one of the best catches I have seen in college football this year.

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kG-tShgiIL0&?start=346w=560&h=315]

It requires watching the replays to get a true feel for how good this catch on the corner fade is. The extension to high-point the ball and get a foot in bounds is impressive, but it’s garden-variety athleticism for a top prospect at the position. What I love is the concentration. Watch cornerback get his hand on the ball just as Washington begins to secure the ball after the initial catch at the high point of the target.

The receiver never loses focus despite the defender forcing Washington to fight to secure the ball. This is something Washington has to do while in mid-turn to shield the ball from his opponent. There are a lot of impressive facets of athleticism, focus, and toughness at play here. The full extension, the hand strength, the turn, the boundary awareness, and even the awareness to wrap the arm around the ball after his bound rebounds off the turf are all displays of skills integration that is difficult to teach. A coach might be able to teach a receiver to each of these things separately, but to layer them into one play and deal with a defender touching the ball at the most vulnerable point of the catch in the process of executing this play is impressive.

Washington’s willingness to lay out for the ball isn’t a one-time display. Here is a 3rd-and-six slant with 2:25 in the half where he faces a cornerback playing tight to the line of scrimmage.

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kG-tShgiIL0&start=123w=560&h=315]

The first thing I like about this play is the break on the route. Washington is not a refined route runner at this stage of his career. I often see him raise his pads too soon on releases, which tips off his break, and I don’t see an urgency to his releases that will force a defender to bail deep and set up shorter breaks.

Washington can learn these skills. The athleticism is there and this play reveals a hint of it. Watch him take two small steps up field and explode inside with a hard break. It’s a miniscule part of this quick route, but there’s intensity and precision to the move that he needs to incorporate into other routes.

As the ball arrives, Washington extends his body parallel to the ground and makes a diving catch towards the oncoming safety at the first down marker. Although he traps the ball to his body, his hands make contact with the ball first and he has no fear of contact from the defensive back over top. Once again, you can’t teach a willingness to put your body in harm’s way. It’s something Washington and Green have in common.

This 37-yard gain against man coverage in the Florida game is an example of a decent release that Washington needs to build on. It’s a 1st and 10 play with 8:45 in the third quarter as the single receiver in a 3×1, 10 personnel shotgun set.

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uIngLBgVge4&?start=292w=420&h=315]

Washington and his quarterback set up a subtle double move on this play. The quarterback takes his drop looking to the trips receiver side as Washington gives a quick shoulder fake to the inside and then accelerates up the sideline. Although it doesn’t seem like much, Washington’s fake is quick and thorough enough to momentarily freeze the defender and it gives the receiver a step.

I like how Washington uses his inside arm to frame and enforce this separation from the trailing defender. The receiver catches the ball over his inside shoulder and turns inside the numbers with a nice dip to avoid the safety. Although he doesn’t break the tackle of the trailing cornerback, he drags the defender another five yards and maintains a grip on the ball as the Florida Gator swats at it relentlessly. Three years from now, Washington probably has an additional 5-10 pounds of muscle that will make this tackle even more difficult for a cornerback to make.

Press-Release Technique

Washington is willing to use his hands against press coverage, but his technique needs more refinement. Right now, it appears as if he doesn’t have a grasp of the variety of moves he can use and when to use them. Here’s a play against Florida where he turns an out into a streak and the play ends with the ball bouncing off his chest near the end line. Although I’ll talk about the end of this play in more detail, the first thing I want you to see is the initial release.

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uIngLBgVge4&?start=190w=420&h=315]

Watch the replay and you’ll see where Washington’s problems begin. When the defender presents an obstacle during the release, Washington doesn’t use his inside arm to work through the defender. Instead, he uses his right arm to cross over and make contact. This type of move compromises a receiver’s balance, slows his stride, and has no real strength behind it.

I wouldn’t be at all surprised to find out that Washington is right-handed and this move is a product of him not having release techniques ingrained into his game. It’s a reaction to the defender and the result is an awkward move that has little impact. In fact, the way Washington earns initial separation is with his left arm as he makes the break outside. But by the time Washington achieves this distance the route is breaking open late, the quarterback is under pressure, and Washington now has to run another route to work open.

This is why it’s so important for a player to have refined technique. Washington is tall, strong, and fast, but if he has to think about what to do rather than have practiced methods that are second-nature reactions, it hinders the execution of a play.

The second half of the play is worth discussing in theory despite the fact that Washington steps on the boundary well before he reaches the end zone on this route adjustment and a penalty would have nullified any catch he could have made. What I don’t like about the end of his play is Washington’s attempt to catch the ball over his shoulder rather than turn back to the ball and make an aggressive attempt to snare the target. It’s possible the velocity of the throw was hard to gauge and Washington makes the wrong call based on this factor, but it’s also a passive attempt to “receive” the ball rather than fight to “catch” it.

When the ball arrives, Washington still has to open his inside shoulder to the trailing defender and this gives the defender a lane to break up the target. If Washington turns to face the ball and tries to highpoint it, he has a better shot on this play. This play isn’t a result of Washington fearing contact, just not having a feel for what to do on the play.

This route against Texas A&M is another demonstration of a talented athlete in need of better release technique. Washington is the single receiver at the right numbers with the cornerback playing tight and with a slight shade to the outside of the receiver on this 2nd and 10 at the A&M 47 with 1:56 in the half.

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kG-tShgiIL0&?start=116w=560&h=315]

Washington takes an outside release, but the corner presses the receiver drives Washington too far outside. There’s no chance Washington gets down field in time to make a play on this ball.  If the receiver dips his outside shoulder away from the source of the press and drives through his release with the acceleration he’s capable of using, his position will force the defender to relinquish contact or incur a penalty.

Another technique would have been to rip through the contact, but Washington unintentionally sustains the contact. The Missouri receiver is still playing with the mindset that he’s strong enough to push a defender off him with raw strength and hasn’t mastered how to use leverage. This is a college football mindset of a big-time athlete. He needs to learn a professional mindset of winning against opponents who are athletically on a more even playing field.

I for one believe Washington can learn these skills. If he does, he could become a star. I’m talking optimum scenarios here. I think a more reasonable expectation for Washington is for him to develop into a starter in 3-4 years and provide a team 40-60 catches, 600-800 yards, and 5-7 touchdowns as a secondary option that can stretch the field the same way a healthy Sidney Rice does in Seattle.

For analysis of skill players in this year’s draft class, download the 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio.The 2014 RSP will available April 1 and if you pre-order before February 10, you get a 10 percent discount. Better yet, if you’re a fantasy owner the 56-page Post-Draft Add-on comes with the 2012 – 2014 RSPs at no additional charge and available for download within a week after the NFL Draft. Best, yet, 10 percent of every sale is donated to Darkness to Light to combat sexual abuse. You can purchase past editions of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio for just $9.95 apiece.

RSO Writer’s League Update: Playoffs

0 Comments read Matt Waldman
Danny Kelly has always been a Jamal Charles fan (who hasn't? Raiders fans, I imagine). Photo by Phillip Macgruder.
Bob Harris and Jamaal Charles? A winning combination. See below. Photo by Phillip Macgruder.

Congratulations to Bob Harris and Mike Clay, who will be playing in the championship game of the Reality Sports Online Writer’s League. Harris’ team, the fourth seed, was hot in the playoffs, averaging 150 points the past two weeks to defeat Jeff Tefertiller’s fifth seed team and then upset the top seeded squad of Jim Day with a 155-120 victory. Harris received 61 points from Jamaal Charles and received additional help from Danny Amendola’s a 25-point afternoon to out-point Day’s squad that didn’t get its typical advantage from Peyton Manning and Jimmy Graham.

Mike Clay, the No.2 seed, defeated Sigmund Bloom in the semifinals 135-100, thanks to a combined 57 points from Nick Foles and Indianapolis’ team defense. Bloom, who earned a combined 74 points from Shane Vereen and LeSean McCoy in Week 14 to defeat season points leader Matt Waldman in the quarterfinals, only saw this running back duo generate 18 points in the semis.

The tale of the tape for Clay and Harris’ teams is fascinating. Clay has tremendous depth at quarterback with Foles and Drew Brees while Harris is getting by with Matt Ryan and Ryan Fitzpatrick. Matt Forte and Danny Woodhead power Clay’s team at RB and Harris sports Charles and Knowshon Moreno. Clay has the advantage with receiver depth, but Harris’ team is capable of huge individual performances.

Good luck to Bob and Mike who will be competing for a $1000 purse that will be donated to the charity of their choice.

To learn more about the league and Reality Sports Online’s excellent concept, check out this page. In case you haven’t thought about it, I am getting paid to give them my endorsement. However, I don’t do this often – and I am contacted monthly with some kind of offer. RSO is something I truly value and I agreed to start a league and keep a monthly diary because I would have paid to start a league with this format if I knew about it before they reached out to me.

I’ll be keeping this monthly diary next year as well, because I believe in the concept. Stay tuned for opportunities to earn a discount for starting a league next year. In fact, to risk doing the wrong thing – Start your own league and get a discount when you use this coupon code: RSP20%OFF.

Futures – Intuition and Process: FSU RB Karlos Williams

0 Comments read 2014 NFL Draft, Players, Running Back
Predictably, Peterson was the type of player that could trigger your intuition with one play. But there are many others who do the same. Photo by xoque.
Predictably, Peterson was the type of player that could trigger your intuition with one play. But there are many others who do the same. Photo by xoque.

Futures: FSU RB Karlos Williams

by Matt Waldman

People love the idea of being one step ahead of everyone else. It’s why the question, “Who is a player you like in next year’s draft?” is one of the most common I receive.

I spend so much time studying the prospects most likely to declare for this year’s draft that I’m not devoting in-depth analysis to next year’s guys. I get why people want to know and I respect the curiosity, but I dislike this question.

My work is about intuition and process. The longer I do this work, the more I believe in striving for a balance between listening to that inner voice and still honoring the value of a process.

Sometimes you know the first time you lay eyes on a person that there’s something special there. I knew it the first time I saw Alicia Johnson. After our first conversation, I had this feeling of absolute certainty that I just met my future wife.

It was a beautiful moment that was equally terrifying. And why wouldn’t it be? If you have any shred of logic in your being, the idea of knowing something as a fact without having conscious knowledge of the facts is unsettling no matter how many times it occurs during your life.

But there’s a difference between crazy and stupid, so I dated Alicia 13 months before proposing marriage. I needed to know that this “certainty” I was experiencing wouldn’t reveal itself as temporary infatuation. I wanted to make sure that flash of knowledge was illuminating the true dynamics of our relationship and not blinding it.

I may be crazy, but I try to avoid stupidity when at all possible. While I fail often in this regard, marrying Alicia was one of the smartest decisions I’ve made in my life. We have been married four years and the love and underlying certainty that I felt on that first day I met her has never wavered.

I share this Hallmark moment because there are occasions where I have felt that same jolt of certainty when watching football players. Although the implications of meeting the love of your life and identifying a talented college prospect are quite different, that feeling of certainty about a player despite limited exposure to his game is often unsettling. Read the rest at Football Outsiders.

Reads Listens Views 12/13/2013

0 Comments read Reads Listens Views
Doug Marlette
And I went to the “U” and I’m a fan, so don’t write me Cane fans – the slime is everywhere.

Reads Listens Views – The No.1 Weekly Series from the Twitter Awards by a committee of one. Respect Miller . . . respect.

Listens – Rest In Peace Jim Hall, You Were a Stud

[youtube=http://youtu.be/70QOKDLrJq4]

Thanks

If you’re new to RLV, the RSP, or you looked at my new design and thought for a moment someone slipped LSD or PCP into your morning Joe, welcome. This is my weekly series at the Rookie Scouting Portfolio where I list photos, performances, lectures, and links to Internet content I read (or I’m saving to read soon). You may not like everything here, but you’re bound to like something.

It’s also my chance to thank you for visiting the Rookie Scouting Portfolio and purchasing my annual publication on rookie prospects at the offensive skill positions.

For those of you new to the Rookie Scouting Portfolio, the publication is available every April 1. You can learn more about the RSP here. If you want to see samples of the play-by-play notes I take to write the analysis, you can find them here. And to download past versions of the publication (2006-2012), go here.

Remember, 10 percent of each sale is donated to Darkness to Light, a non-profit devoted to preventing and addressing sexual abuse through community training in schools, religious groups, and a variety of civic groups across the U.S. I’ll have an announcement before the year is over about what the RSP donated to D2L as well as a plans for the 2014 RSP.

Listens

[youtube=http://youtu.be/WyK8fiVq4Qc]

This Week’s RSP Posts

Haven’t had a chance to see what’s new at the RSP this week? Here’s a quick run-down:

Ahead: Tomorrow’s Futures delves into the relationship between Intuition and Process when it comes to player evaluation, using one player for 2015’s class who I have a feeling could be special.

Views – Worth Sharing Again . . .

[youtube=http://youtu.be/8OEjYquyjcg]

Here’s a bit longer Cliff Notes version about plot of the movie.

[youtube=http://youtu.be/si8TAHFQvtk]

Go see it. It’s a downer, but it’s important to see.

Reads (Football)

  • Ben Tate: No Pain, No Gain – Enjoyable profile on the Texans runner who reveals how Gary Kubiak once threw Tate under the bus.
  • RGIII – A Victim of His Own Swagger? – H/T to FBG staffer Mark Wimer for sharing this one.
  • Film Room: Russell Wilson – Cian Fahey shows you why Wilson deserves to be in the MVP conversation.
  • The Rise of ACL Tears – Grantland’s piece on the ligament. I’m not usually interested in this topic at this level of depth, but it’s a well-done piece worth a read.
  • Why I Believe Jameis Winston’s Accuser – Quality read regardless of whether you believe the accuser or not. Don’t send your daughter to college without making sure she understands the dynamics of drinking culture and how to navigate it. Of course, I live in a city where the local government’s answer to rising teen age pregnancies was to build a daycare in the high school rather than allow the schools to educate on birth control. Yes, Athens has more in common with leaders of Third World nations they look down on than it realizes.

Views -David Simon at Festival of Dangerous Ideas

[youtube=http://youtu.be/DNttT7hDKsk]

Reads (Life Outside The Lines)

Listens – Hit Me Again, Jim . . .

[youtube=http://youtu.be/ZIq5w-NogWA]

RSP Rorschach No.1: Fitzgerald Toussaint

0 Comments read Matt Waldman
Fitzgerald Toussaint and the Michigan Wolverines offense gets to be part of the first RSP Rorschach Series. Photo by Adam Glanzman.
Fitzgerald Toussaint and the Michigan Wolverines offense gets to be part of the first RSP Rorschach Series. Photo by Adam Glanzman.

Some plays are like Rorschach inkblots because there’s no definitive answer to why they unfold the way they do. This new series examines plays that have more than one viable explanation and may be too difficult to draw a single conclusion. The fun part is that you have a voice in it.

RSP Rorschach No.1: Fitzgerald Toussaint

[youtube=http://youtu.be/hpdg_kz9RGA]

This is a two-yard gain on 1st and 10 with 2:01 in the first quarter from a 21 personnel set. It’s an offset I-formation with the fullback to the strong side and one receiver split to the weak side. Notre Dame is in a 4-3. Before the snap, the safety at the left hash creeps to linebacker depth over the receiver. Also note that the outside linebacker in the left flat takes a couple of steps towards the line of scrimmage as his safety reaches this depth.

At the snap, the line slants right and the fullback works across the formation to the left edge of the line. The outside linebacker executes a run blitz and the fullback is confronted with two choices: block the outside linebacker or attack the middle linebacker. The fullback chooses the middle linebacker, allows the outside linebacker to continue his blitz unimpeded, and Toussaint takes a path directly into the middle linebacker and falls forward for two yards.

Why did this play unfold as it did? Here are some of my thoughts. While I have my opinion that I like the most, I’m not sharing it. I want to hear what you think is the most viable of these theories. Have your own that’s not listed? Post it in the comments.

Theory 1: The Fullback Makes A Bad Choice

The fullback’s original assignment is the middle linebacker. If the outside linebacker doesn’t blitz, the fullback seals the middle linebacker inside and Toussaint bounces the play to the outside shoulder of the fullback.  But with the outside linebacker’s run blitz, there’s no outside line unless the fullback changes his plan and attacks this run blitz. In theory, this change would have given Toussaint a chance to bounce the play outside to the left flat where there’s a ton of room, a block by his wide receiver on the cornerback, and only a middle linebacker chasing Toussaint from behind.

Theory 2: The Left Guard Fails To Identify the Appropriate Linebacker Assignment

Watch the play unfold and the left guard works through the line of scrimmage and attacks the linebacker inside the right hash, allowing the linebacker in the middle to run free and occupy the lane this play is designed for Toussaint to attack. Was the linebacker inside the hash the “Mike” or was it the linebacker that makes the tackle? Did the guard attack the wrong defender? If he took on the linebacker just left of the hash, the fullback takes on the blitz from the outside linebacker, and the Toussaint has a lane inside for a bigger gain.

Theory 3: The Quarterback Fails To Identify The OLB Blitz

When the safety creeps to linebacker depth, this should be a pre snap indication that there’s a potential blitz from that side. Considering the alignment of the outside linebacker and the depth of the safety, it’s conceivable that the quarterback should have read the blitz and made one of any number of changes:

  • Shift the tight end to the opposite tackle and run the play so the tight end and fullback can account for the two linebackers.
  • Change the direction of the direction of the run to the strong side away from the blitz.
  • Change the play to a pass.

In theory, all three of these options have a better outcome than what actually happens.

So what do you think?

[polldaddy poll=7639925]

For analysis of skill players in this year’s draft class, download the 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio.The 2014 RSP will available April 1 and if you pre-order before February 10, you get a 10 percent discount. Better yet, if you’re a fantasy owner the 56-page Post-Draft Add-on comes with the 2012 – 2014 RSPs at no additional charge and available for download within a week after the NFL Draft. Best, yet, 10 percent of every sale is donated to Darkness to Light to combat sexual abuse. You can purchase past editions of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio for just $9.95 apiece.

RSP Flashback: Overrated (McFadden/Jones) – Underrated (Forte)

0 Comments read Players, RSP Publication, Running Back
The RSP is to draft analysis as Matt Forte is to NFL running backs - versatile, underrated, and appreciated by those in the know. Photo by John Martinez Pavliga.
The RSP is to draft analysis as Matt Forte is to NFL running backs – versatile, underrated, and appreciated by those in the know. Photo by John Martinez Pavliga.

The 2008 RB class was a defining moment for my development as a draft analyst.  The love for Darren McFadden was off the charts. Meanwhile there was a back toiling away in New Orleans who I thought was much better.

It was another lesson in sticking to what you see and explaining it all in detail. This time history was kind. Here were my pre-draft takes on Darren McFadden, Felix Jones, Mike Hart, Kevin Smith, and Matt Forte.

Overrated RB Prospects

Darren McFadden, Arkansas: McFadden might be the most difficult player I have evaluated for the RSP. His speed and acceleration are better than all but one back in this class. He also played productively during his career while coming off toe surgery and dealing with bruised ribs. When McFadden can run a play as designed, he can break it open for huge gains because of his elite speed. Although he doesn’t make strong lateral moves, he has the ability to bend a run in a direction while running at great speed. This is a rare ability, but it is still not as effective against a defense as a runner with sharp changes of direction.

The problem is this former QB repeatedly demonstrated noticeable deficiencies that I believe will prevent him from making a consistent impact as an NFL runner: falling backward when making direct contact against first and second level defenders because he runs with poor leverage; the tendency for his legs to go dead upon the initial wrap-up; lacking the ability to change direction with a hard plant and cut; impatience with his blockers; and poor ball protection techniques. Many people have compared McFadden to Eric Dickerson or Adrian Peterson, but the only thing McFadden currently shares with these two backs is his speed.

McFadden’s power is actually something worth calling into question. I am not skeptical of his strength and athleticism. He has plenty of both to be an elite NFL running back. The problem is his knowledge of how to use it. Any type of power you generate when it comes to delivering or deflecting a blow comes from the legs and hips. Not only do these body parts have to be strong, but they also need to be positioned well to transfer energy from your body to your target.

They explain this in more detail on shows that study the physics of martial arts—for example, National Geographic did a special where they hooked up UFC fighters like Randy Couture to sensors that measure force and flow of energy throughout the body. I know it seems a bit like a jump to apply this to a running back, but it’s not. Think about a runner heading through the line of scrimmage and they are come face to face with a DT, LB, or DB greeting them head-on. If the runner’s hips and knees are bent then his shoulders will have to be leaning forward so he can explode into the contact. When he makes contact, the energy transfers from his legs in the ground, up his hips, and to the point of contact with the defender.

A great runner has learned through a combination of repetition and intuitive assimilation of practice and game situations (natural talent) how to subtly change the angle of contact in close quarters and deliver enough of a blow to at least “shed” the tackle, if not just knock guy on his butt. This is why a back such as Eddie George who “ran too high” coming out of college actually was a good NFL player. He was taller than the average back, but he knew how to lower his shoulders and bend his knees and hips so more times than not he exploded into contact.

The same can be said with Eric Dickerson. Most people remember his “upright” running style, but if you watch highlights that don’t involve him running through creases untouched for 40- 60 yards and looking like Carl Lewis in pads, you’ll see a guy who could get low very quick and deliver a blow with his shoulders into contact. Adrian Peterson is capable of the same thing. I never once worried about his upright running style. The guy has monstrously great balance. When I first thought about comparisons to Peterson vs. McFadden I would watch how McFadden would get yanked out-of-bounds by the arm a hit to the hips, or a horse collar and see right away from the standpoint of balance Peterson is uniquely different–he stayed in bounds on plays like this all the time (which is what is one of quite a few things special about his skills). But this also has to do with hip and leg alignment and good use of his strength.

When I see McFadden in the hole he gets yanked backwards more than many backs (even compared to 6-0, 200-lb Felix Smith) in the hole or knocked down on is butt from head-on hits because his knee bend and hip bend is just not there. How can you tell? Look at his shoulders. A back like George or Dickerson often ran as if their shoulders were a big hand on a clock pointed to the number 2 or at worst between the number 1 and number 2. A back like McFadden is somewhere between the 12 and 1 and never quite at 1. It’s why when he gets hit in the hole he’ll fall backwards more than the average NFL-quality prospect. A back like Edgerrin James, who is unbelievably good at getting low, often gets closer to the number 3 position with his shoulder lean as he is still running forward. You can’t do this unless your hips and knees are bent.

It is not to say that McFadden never lowered his shoulders, but it was generally done in the open field with a significant running start against a defensive back. To his credit, he will break some long runs as a situational back because he showed the ability to run the designed offensive plays at Arkansas to perfection. Arkansas did a terrific job tailoring an offense around McFadden and Felix Jones by forcing defenses to overplay one and get burned by the other. SEC defenses have some of the best athletes in the country, especially on defense. But these fast athletes are used in highly aggressive defenses and they are susceptible to a glorified counter play with play action that will force them out of position when that play fake goes to an elite athlete in Jones.

The problems with McFadden show up when he had a reasonably normal freelance opportunity and he didn’t possess the vision or patience to allow these normal alternatives to develop. I’ve heard McFadden can catch, but after watching six games over a two-year period, I saw a runner who dropped easy passes on a consistent basis. Robert Meachem caught a lot of passes in workouts last year with his hands, but struggled as a rookie in-game situations. Once again, this is why game film is invaluable in telling how a player does when the pads come on, the fans are screaming, and the veterans are playing with a speed an intensity they’ve never seen before.

Like Reggie Bush, McFadden will learn that his speed isn’t as much of an advantage in the NFL as it is in college football. Speaking of Bush, I was very high on the USC back and still believe he has the skills to live up to the hype if he can stay healthy and stop pressing so hard to make the big play. In contrast, I think McFadden is more of a project that can develop into a franchise back if he corrects some serious deficiencies and works his butt off to do so.

Unfortunately, he hasn’t shown the maturity off the field and football has come rather easy to him. Having kids out-of-wedlock or some college bar fights doesn’t make him a hardened criminal, but I believe the odds are against him to take his work ethic to the level of a Ladainian Tomlinson or Peyton Manning. And McFadden needs to work this hard to make the jump or he will most likely disappoint. The one way I could see how his evaluation is off base is if McFadden’s injuries severely altered his running style and he was generally cruising off his incredible speed, but I’m skeptical this is the case. My best overall grade of McFadden indicates he clearly has the talent to contribute in the NFL, but needs a lot of work to be the primary offensive weapon.

Darren McFadden had a terrific season a few years ago, but hasn't stayed healthy. or performed consistently as an NFL back. Photo by June 10459.
Darren McFadden had a terrific season a few years ago, but hasn’t stayed healthy. or performed consistently as an NFL back. Photo by June 10459.

Felix Jones, Arkansas: I believe Jones will become a viable situational back in the NFL, but to rate him a top five back in this draft is a big leap of faith in a player who only carried the football 20 times once in his college career. Nearly two-thirds of Jones’ carries were as a receiver on end-arounds with McFadden as the quarterback. Linebackers and defensive ends won’t be as concerned about most NFL quarterbacks as college defenders were with McFadden’s blazing speed. The Wild Hog formation at Arkansas was mutually beneficial to both players. I think Jones has the skills to develop into a productive contributor based on a game where he ran primarily out of the I-formation as the RB, but there are several other backs that proved they could produce without a decoy that runs a 4.33 40-yard dash. Jones will contribute in the NFL as a kick return specialist and change of pace runner, but I’m not as convinced he’ll be the lock as a future starter as others. I have no qualms about drafting him because he has some Clinton Portis potential, but even Portis splitting time with Edgerrin James and Najeh Davenport showed much more on film than Jones.

Mike Hart, Michigan: The former Wolverine is a tough runner with good balance and movement, but he lacks the speed and acceleration to develop along the lines of a back of similar dimensions in this draft that I rated much higher—Ray Rice. Hart is also a fairly significant liability as a pass protector. He ran behind a very large offensive line that seemed to be outclassed versus top competition. Michigan has a recent history of turning out
disappointing skill position players. Although I believe Hart could develop into a solid depth chart player, but he’s too small to be this slow. I project Hart as a change of pace back who is capable of a contributing in relief of an injured starter, but he’ll be exposed for his deficiencies if considered for a starting role.

Underrated RB Prospects

I was wrong about Smith's tentative approach early in his career, but when he was healthy he flashed what I saw overall. Photo by Carlos Osorio.
I was wrong about Smith’s tentative approach early in his career, but when he was healthy he flashed what I saw overall. Photo by Carlos Osorio.

Kevin Smith, University of Central Florida: How does a 2000-yard rusher qualify as underrated? When analysts and draftniks dismiss him as a baby-faced junior who is too thin, too easy to bring down, and indecisive at the point of attack. The only thing that they have right is the remark about his face—and that doesn’t win or lose football games. Smith is bigger than Darren McFadden and will likely add another 10 pounds of muscle as he matures because it’s his upper body that is on the thinner side. He already has a very muscular trunk and runs with good balance.

The skills that make Smith special are his vision, hard-cutting style, and hip flexibility, which are reminiscent of no back since Marcus Allen. Smith faced 9- and 10-men fronts and demonstrated a decisive style. I watched him have a very productive day against a stout Mississippi State defense that loaded up the box to stop him. Although he needs to do a better job of moving his legs when wrapped up, he has deceptive power and runs out of more hits and ankle tackles than advertised. The fact that he’s one of the best pure runners in this draft and he is still raw as a player makes Smith an underrated commodity.

In a few years Smith has a strong chance to be known as the best back in this class if he can capitalize on his vast talent. What will hold him back early is his need to improve his skills as a receiver. Nevertheless, Smith will excite teammates, fans, and fantasy owners with his running style. My only concern with Smith is his hard-cutting style. Some of the backs that share this aspect of his style suffered knee injuries that robbed them of their skill.

Matt Forte, Tulane: Forte is described as a big back (which is ironic when you consider some of the same people who say this about Forte describe Kevin Smith—a back with the same dimensions—as too thin), but what surprised observers at the combine was his speed and agility. What impressed me was his ability to combine excellent vision with change of direction skills ranging from the subtle to the dramatic. Forte played behind an offensive line routinely over-matched by its opposition and he demonstrated the ability to pick and slide away from penetrating defenders into the backfield. I saw a number of runs from Forte where many backs would have lost 5-7 yards when Forte had gains of 5-7 yards.

This is due to his quick first step, vision, and change of direction. It won’t take more than a year or two for Forte to get a shot as a starter. His greatest deficiency is his inconsistent approach to pass blocking. Even without refined pass protection skills, Forte should compete for time on the field as a rookie.

Matt Forte RSP Sample

For analysis of skill players in this year’s draft class, download the 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio.The 2014 RSP will available April 1 and if you pre-order before February 10, you get a 10 percent discount. Better yet, if you’re a fantasy owner the 56-page Post-Draft Add-on comes with the 2012 – 2014 RSPs at no additional charge and available for download within a week after the NFL Draft. Best, yet, 10 percent of every sale is donated to Darkness to Light to combat sexual abuse. You can purchase past editions of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio for just $9.95 apiece.