Posts tagged RSP

Reads Listens Views 10/11/13

October 10, 2013 0 Comments read Reads Listens Views

Listens I

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Football Reads

Football Outsiders’ Film Room: Cian Fahey illustrating plays from the pros that oftentimes were similar to what I showed about them at the college level (Tannehill and Wilson).
Coverage of Fantasy Throwdown’s Tourney – Mike MacGregor’s one-on-one fantasy game is one you have to check out.
Concussion Watch – Frontline tracks the concussions occuring in the NFL by week and position.
League of Denial – Watch the entire investigative report here.
Early NFL Omens – Robert Weintraub’s look at things we should have learned in Week 1 about the next six weeks.
Football Is Dead. Long Live Football – Worth another post. Yes, it is that good.

Listens II

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Non-Football Reads

Drum Teacher Was Scurrilous, Rude – and Greatly Admired – Now that’s an obituary.
If He Hollers Let Him Go – Great telling of Dave Chappelle’s life and impact on comedy and the race discussion in America.
The Case for Writing a Story Before Knowing How It Ends – Andre Dubus III used to write in his car on breaks from his subcontractor’s gigs. Great advice.
The Problem of Prolonging Life – I had a family doctor who said if he grew old and infirm, find him a cabin in the woods and leave him there with canned goods, a can opener, and a gun. I know a few doctors who nod their heads in agreement. It should tell you about the business of life-prolonging care in our country.
Dogs Are People, Too – Another compelling piece of research that shows we know so little about animals and need to treat them with more respect.
Seal Lion Taunts Great White Shark – Fun series of photos of animal trash talking.
These Journalists Spent Two Years and $750,000 Covering One Story – And why investigative journalism saves lives.
Angola 3 Inmate Tastes ‘Bittersweet’ Freedom – Why investigative journalism might have helped this man’s cause a lot sooner.

Listens III

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Views/Commentary – Pro Football Players By Place of Birth (Chart by Atlantic Cities)

This map is part of an article about Malcolm Gladwell’s assessment that football will become “ghettoized” and middle class families will discourage their kids from playing the sport. I’m stunned about the fuss made over this assertion; just follow the trail of money and it’s clear this is already happening. Academic critics of college football have long pointed to its exploitative social hierarchy before investigative reporters delved into the subject. University of Georgia professor Billy Hawkins published a book about it in 2000, “The New Plantation: The Internal Colonization of Black Student Athletes“. You can read highlights here.

Another trail of money is the funds the NFL has spent to shift its public relations strategy from the gladiatorial days of selling NFL Films’ Greatest Hits to heavy rotation of a kinder-gentler-safer Heads-Up PR campaign aimed towards parents of young children who are thinking twice about allowing their kids to play the sport. And of course, the most obvious money trail is the legal expense to head a court case off at the pass in order to slow the decline of the game.

Slow decline might be the best way to describe of the future of the NFL. The league got into bed with prime time television in 1970 when Monday Night Football was born and this was really the beginning of the NFL’s ascent into the mass media consciousness. If 1970 was the birth of the NFL’s Golden Age, its childhood and adolescence were the 80s and 90s. Cable television (ESPN), music videos (MTV – Chicago Bears), VHS and DVD (NFL Films) all made the game more marketable.

It means the past 15 years have arguably been the NFL in its prime: record revenues, no labor issues impacting the regular season, the huge television contracts, coverage of the NFL Draft and Combine, and even a 24/7 broadcast network run by the league. Throw in the NFL smartly commoditizing digital technology – streaming coach’s film, quick-editing of cutups, fantasy sports, and adopting media aggregation and social media to enhance coverage and education of the game – and this decade has truly been the zenith of the league’s popularity.

But with what we know about the physical toll of the game and the challenges to create technology to prevent it, I’m skeptical the game will ever be as popular as it is this decade. I hope the game evolves and remains a compelling physical, strategic, and spiritual challenge as it increases its safety, but I’m not counting on the game increasing its popularity.

I’m counting on Malcolm Gladwell being more right than wrong.

You see that dot northeast of Atlanta? That’s my hometown of Athens, Georgia, a city renown for the Bulldogs and its music scene. Walk through the gorgeous red-brick, Georgian architecture of the first chartered university in the U.S. and then across the street to the shops and sidewalk tables of restaurants and cafes downtown and the city sells the dream well. Throw in the fact that the hospital is top-notch and the vet school, law school, and business school are pretty good, and it’s a great place for people who have the means to live somewhat segregated from reality.

But there’s a lot more to Athens that these people don’t have to see. According to the U.S. Census Bureau, Athens had the third-highest wealth gap in the United States. There as much or more public housing per square mile in the Classic City than anywhere in the southeastern United States. One analysis claims Athens is only safer than 10 percent of the cities in the United States. Police departments from neighboring counties have often been accused of “dumping” their homeless to town.

I’ve lived in Athens for 19 of the past 20 years. They hide the poverty well from the tourists and alumni, but its here. It’s worse now that the yuppies and educators who supported the public schools in the 1980s fled to the neighboring Oconee county where they could enjoy the service economy of Athens, but not have to make the effort to maintain a quality school system after the blue collar jobs left and their kids graduated. The graduation rate for the city high schools is 55 percent. Rather than promote birth control in the schools, the town preferred to promote abstinence and build a daycare in one of its schools.

Football is a religion here. I know you folks in the Big 10 and Big 12 think you understand, but trust me when I tell you it’s a different level of intensity. I’m not talking about on the field, but the culture of the alumni and fans. Combine that with a gap between rich and poor, black and white, and an SEC institution with one of the largest and most successful athletic departments in the country and I’m not the least bit shocked where football has been heading and why the NFL is trying to turn the tide.

There’s a lot I love about the town, but I’m not going to pretend it’s something that it’s not. If you’re poor and matriculate through this public school system, there’s a good chance that big-time sports is a lottery ticket out of a cycle of poverty that this local economy cannot fix. Football is a way out. It’s one of the only ways out.

Just look at the map and you’ll see why Gladwell makes a compelling point. It’s easier to watch people you don’t have to truly care about wreck themselves. Especially when you can’t hide from the risks any longer. Uncomfortable things to consider if you’re a fan, but if you really want to claim you care about the game it’s time to take an unflinching look at its problems.

I don’t know what to do about it, but communication and awareness is the first step.

Thanks – Check out my Football Outsiders Futures column on Saturday. I’m profiling one of my favorite players in this 2014 NFL Draft class. Also, learn why I have no problem incorporate intuition into the evaluation process.

RSO Writers’ League Diary: 2013, Week 5

October 8, 2013 0 Comments read Matt Waldman

Pick rookies with a snake draft, sign the rest like the NFL - free agency at Reality Sports Online. Photo by John Martinez-Paviliga — I have two receivers who are Cal alumni on my roster and both are showing me something in the box score. Photo by John Martinez-Paviliga

Week 5 is in the books and my squad is 2-3 and fourth overall in points scored, including a 163-point weekend without Calvin Johnson and a month-long lack of an RB2, thanks to a Steven Jackson injury.

STANDINGS

Team	W	L	Pts	Waiver
Grinders
Jim Day	5	0	775	14
Bryan Fontaine	3	2	739	10
Bob Harris	3	2	639	11
Jason Wood	2	3	747	7
Matt Waldman	2	3	732	5
Ryan McDowell	1	4	554	3
Mike MacGregor	1	4	547	2
Bangers
Sigmund Bloom	4	1	646	13
Tim Stafford	3	1	589	12
Mike Clay	3	2	645	9
Jeff Tefertiller	2	2	606	8
Rivers McCown	2	3	519	4
Matt Papson	2	3	518	6
Lance Zierlein	1	4	368	1

– See more at: http://www.realitysportsonline.com/LeagueHome.aspx?refid=F5C-50765E26623C#sthash.AFtKbBXx.dpuf

The record isn’t pretty, but I’m feeling pretty good considering that I lost by six points in the opener to Bob Harris, suffered a 50-point blowout to Jim Day’s first-place squad, and then took a 56-point drubbing from Jason Wood’s No.2-scoring team. Everyone else will have to face the likes of Day, Wood, and Fontaine and I should be getting Jackson and Johnson back soon enough. Even if I don’t, I’m enthusiastic about the long-term potential of my roster based on my contract-talent balance:

Wide Receivers: This is the strength of my team. I have Calvin Johnson through 2014, DeSean Jackson and Keenan Allen through 2015, and Cecil Shorts through 2016. Allen, my 2013 first-round pick, has shown the past two weeks that he’s not only healthy, but Philip Rivers is developing confidence in the rookie. Then there are Kenbrell Thompkins and Marlon Brown, who are eligible for me to franchise. It’s unlikely I do because, barring health issue, I have a strong corps in place for the next 2-3 years that could get stronger if Marquess Wilson can assert himself as a viable WR3 for the Bears in 2014. Considering I’m strong long-term at 40 percent of my starting lineup, I’m happy.
Running Backs: While a weakness of my team this year, there’s a good chance it could be a lot stronger next. I have Arian Foster through 2014 and Ben Tate through 2015. This could be a fine RB1-RB2 combination next year if Tate stays healthy and a team like the Browns sign him to a free agent deal. Jackson’s deal will expire at the end of this year, so I’m hoping I can get the most from him down the stretch for a playoff run. My depth at this position is poor. I turned down deals for Danny Woodhead and Andre Ellington from Mike Clay – both solid offers that made me think hard about my team’s direction. At the end of the day, I couldn’t give up Cecil Shorts’ four-year deal in exchange for RB2/flex depth with potential long-term upside. It’s likely I’ll be going strong to the hole at running back next year.
Tight End: This is the position I’m most likely to franchise a player in 2014. Vernon Davis and Julius Thomas’ deals will expire at year’s end and Thomas is playing at a level where it will be difficult for me not to tag him if Peyton Manning plays another year.
Quarterback: Jay Cutler is another candidate for franchising, but the 2014 QB class might draw my attention because it would be nice to have a player I could anchor. Still, three years at the early end of a QB’s career isn’t all that appealing when there should be a glut of talent at the position for me to acquire via free agency. If not, Cutler might be my hedge.
Defense: Seattle’s defense is the No.2 fantasy unit in this league and a long-shot candidate for a franchise tag.
Kickers: Robbie Gould and Sebastian Janikowski are solid at this point, but I’m effectively signing year-to-year leases when it comes to this position.

What about the rest of the league? Here are some notable teams:

Jason Wood went with an approach to sign core players at each position to long-term deals: Adrian Peterson (2 years), Aaron Rodgers (3 years), Demaryius Thomas (4 years), Reggie Bush (2 years), Eddie Lacy (3 years), Jared Cook (3 years), and Philip Rivers (2 years). Based on his wealth at running back and quarterback, I wouldn’t be shocked if he’s trading some of that depth in the next 12-18 months because as well as he’s scoring, his receiving corp is weak beyond Thomas. This might change as the Chargers find the best way to use Vincent Brown and/or the Vikings continue to use Matt Cassel, who has a rapport with Greg Jennings.

Sigmund Bloom also took the core player approach. His deals with Rob Gronkowski (4), LeSean McCoy (3), and Jordy Nelson (3) diversify his portfolio, but the attempt to capture a stranglehold on quality quarterbacks isn’t working as hoped with Sam Bradford (2) and Ben Roethlisberger (2), and Geno Smith (3). It still could, but Bloom might be hoping to trade one of these guys. It’s massive weight for his team – and the squad is performing well enough that he can win without a top-name signal caller. However he also appears stuck with Jonathan Stewart for a couple of years and Tavarres King at a three-year deal could be costly if he doesn’t hook up with another team and emerge. I wouldn’t be surprised if he franchises Alshon Jeffery at year’s end.

Bob Harris is set at QB (Matt Ryan – 3 years) and keeps Jamaal Charles for through 2014. However, Harris opted to structure his team with a lot of one-year deals and took a cautious approach towards long-term contracts this year – no four-year deals and only one three-year deal for a non-rookie. He could be a major player in free agency next year.

Bryan Fontaine may have Isaiah Pead and Brian Quick signed four-year and three-year deals weighing him down somewhat if the second-year runner and receivers continue to disappoint in the box score, but Fontaine does have multi-year deals with Dez Bryant (3), Larry Fitzgerald (2), DeMarco Murray (2), and Dwayne Bowe (2). With Jordan Cameron and Antonio Gates playing well, I won’t be shocked if one of these studs is franchised and Fontaine is looking hard for a quarterback when Matt Stafford and Jake Locker become free agents at year’s end. Considering Bryan has $10.6 million available before contracts expire, he’ll have a lot of bidding power to find the passer he wants.

Every month I’ll be writing something about the start-up keeper-contract-salary-auction league I’m running at Reality Sports Online. You can read more about RSO’s excellent league formathere. And if you want to start a league with your friends or join a league as an individual, you can earn a 20 percent discount when you use the promo code RSP20%OFF.

Reads Listens Views 10/5/2013

October 5, 2013 0 Comments read Reads Listens Views

Listens – Miles Smiles “Jean Pierre”

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Better late than never, right? That’s how I see it when it comes to posting Reads Listens Views. This Saturday version of RLV includes the usual football/non-football web content that I’ve been reading (or saving for when time permits) and some commentary about three things that have nothing to do with football. If you’re new to the blog, I post RLV once a week with the mantra that you might not like everything I post today, but you’ll at least find one thing that made it worthwhile.

I’m also breaking out the fantasy mail bag.

Thank You

There was a time in my life where my work life was so busy I might have had eight hours in a 70-hour week to sit my desk and do focused work. Fast forward 15 years and the situation has flip-flopped. Either way, time whizzes by and my window to interact with readers has narrowed lately. Regardless of how these opportunities will ebb and flow I want to thank you for reading my work at the Rookie Scouting Portfolio, Footballguys, and Football Outsiders every week. If you’re new to my work, check out this blog and the Rookie Scouting Portfolio publication.

If you want to know the ins and the outs of rookie skill players as early as April 1 with a level of detail that is more comprehensive than anything available then this 1200-page pre-draft publication is a must-buy. The RSP one-part 200-page draft magazine bookmarked for easy reading and other-part 1000-page tome that shows all the work to make the front half insightful: grading checklists for each player according to his position, a glossary that defines the grading system and each thing I score, and all my play-by-play notes on each player. I show my math for even the most diehard, nut-job – and I have plenty of them (they’re my kind of people).

You also get another 150-200 page post-draft document that updates rankings based on player fit with his new team, tiered dynasty rankings, and draft value analysis based on dynasty drafts. This RSP will help you this year, next year, and often times the year after in you dynasty drafts, re-drafts, and the waiver wire. Knowledge is power and you’ll be able to see the signs a little sooner when a player is poised for a breakout.

Past issues (2006-2012) are available for $9.95 apiece and I donate 10 percent of every RSP sale to Darkness To Light, a non-profit whose mission is to prevent and address sexual abuse in communities through training people to be aware of the dynamics, the stats, and how to help victims of this crime. As football fans who send our children to school, sports camps, churches-synagogues-mosques, it’s important that adults understand how to address this issue so they aren’t negligent (legally or morally) due to ignorance. Download the 2013 RSP Today

Wisconsin runner Melvin Gordon is a player I look forward to studying. Here's a nice snapshot of him in action. Photo by Han Shot First. — Wisconsin runner Melvin Gordon is a player I look forward to studying. Here’s a nice snapshot of him in action. Photo by Han Shot First.

Football Reads

Geno Smith: Browning Nagle or Peyton Manning? – Charles Kleinheksel lays it down.
Inside an NFL Locker Room at Halftime – Ryan Riddle.
Concussion Management: Return to Play Protocol – Jene Bramel explains what the NFL is doing (and in some respects not doing) when it comes to protocols for players to return from concussions.
Word of Muth: Making Linebackers Slow – How Philly’s offense made KC’s LB’s slow and why Jason Peters has to re-acclimate his hands.
Cian Fahey’s Film Room Breakdown on Le’Veon Bell and Reggie Bush

Non-Football Reads

October Should Be Breast Cancer Prevention Month – “The often miniscule donations linked to these products most often support charities that fund education campaigns encouraging mammograms (which aren’t very effective anyway1-3) or research into new treatments, but ignore the importance of the most powerful weapon women have in the fight against breast cancer — healthful lifestyle measures.” Amen.
TED Halts Any Talks About GMOs – Not sure what I think about the writer and his message, but I agree with the fundamental stance that corporate science is often flawed and corrupt.
What We Eat Affects Everything – This I do agree with and it’s why I think the first link was worth a post.
An Ingenius Home Built to Battle Tornados – You couldn’t pay my wife to live in Tornado Alley, but this home would be part of the agreement if one was struck.
An Ingenious 19-year-old Develops Plan to Clean Up Oceans in 5 Years – The theme for today is ingenious . . .
What Germans Can Teach Us About Privacy

Views – Bob Harris Interviewed by the University of Arizona

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Five years-old, but still fun to see Bob in action here. You should listen to Bob do his thing weekly at Sirius XM Fantasy Sports.

Commentary: Dexter And Our Government Shutdown.

A good thing gone way bad. Photo by Chesi Photos CC

If you didn’t know, I was a huge fan of the Showtime series Dexter. Like most Dexter fans, I became disenchanted with the final seasons of the show. However, I hung in there to the end – grousing about its decline every week. I have made the argument that the show’s finale was a good attempt that was doomed to fail because everything that came before it didn’t set the table well enough to give the last episode any sense of emotional credibility.

I believe Dexter went south after Deb caught Dexter in the act of murdering the Doomsday Killer. There shouldn’t have been a season where Deb tries to do some half-ass, homemade intervention that unravels to the extent that she gets sucked into his lifestyle and her life spirals to the gutter.

One of several ways that the show could have continued on a strong path would have been for Dexter to flee: the scene of the crime, Deb, and Miami. Fans would have preferred watching dual plot lines of Dexter creating a new life and identity in another state while Deb wages her own private manhunt for her brother.

Imagine Dexter and his son in a place as opposite from Miami as one can get trying to reinvent himself. Perhaps he encounters the doctor who helped create the Code and he meets a woman and falls in love like he does in the actual seasons towards the end. The difference would be that Dexter and the doctor come to the realization that he really wasn’t as doomed as the doc and his dad Harry presumed.

It would have been fascinating to see Dexter come to the realization that he was more human than he allowed himself to believe, doesn’t feel the compulsion to kill, and changes his life. Then the climax of the show could be Deb finding and confronting Dexter and the fallout from it. I believe this is what the show was trying to do, but the development of this type of plot line was so rushed that no audience could suspend disbelief.

I would have also liked watching Deb arrest Dexter and the final two seasons be the investigations that link (or fail to link) him to the Bay Harbor Butcher murders, the arraignment, and the trial. Introduce the psychologist who taught Harry and Dexter the Code and involve her in the trial or sanity hearings.

Watch Deb unravel as the public pressures from the trial and her role as the captain of homicide mount. What happens to her relationship with her brother? Does she come to understand and try to help him escape? Does she grow to despise him and cut all ties? Does she continue to have this great sense of ambivalence that destroys her and ultimately Dexter as he watches it helpless?

What about the rest of homicide who worked with him? Do they try some crazy under the radar deal where Dexter gets life in prison and uses his Code to assist the city and ultimately the FBI to track down other serial killers?

Whether Dexter is sent to a mental hospital or sentenced to death, seasons with a trial and the aftermath could have been great TV. Instead, Showtime asked the producers to rush its development process so they could piggyback Ray Donovan to the series at the cost of quality writing.

We need to make elected public service really be public service. This requires greater sacrifice that they're making. Far greater. Photo by AC Flick. — We need to make elected public service really be public service. This requires greater sacrifice that they’re making. Far greater. Photo by AC Flick.

While I’m playing all-powerful, armchair quarterback, let’s look at this government shutdown. The fact is that private healthcare pays huge sums to our legislative body. If we truly want our representatives to be public servants, there needs to be a better way to enforce this commitment to the public and not private enterprise.

Think of the military. The men and women in our armed forces don’t have the same freedoms as the general public while they are in active service. If you ask me, the grand motivation for most Congressmen and women is money. While there is some degree of transparency with the personal finances of our public servants, I think the it would be worth exploring some way of requiring elected officials in the legislative and executive branches to give up basic rights as citizens while serving.

Pay them higher salaries like other developed countries do, give them great benefits when they retire from public service, but also make public service a real sacrifice. Eliminate any outside donation practices and election campaigns. Voting may be a right, but it’s also a privilege – raise the bar and force us to study the issues and watch debates. In 20 years, the public would become as savvy about debates and issues as they are about the pistol and the shotgun in football.

Require all public servants to live in public servant housing, use public servant based transportation, and require them to give up a large enough degree of financial freedom and decision-making in their lives as well as public privacy during this service. It may sound harsh, but if you want people who are truly willing serve our country and not themselves, ask them to make real sacrifices along the lines of our military – and then make the standard higher on a day-to-day level. Look at it this way, they aren’t putting their lives on the line like the military – at least ask them to put their freedoms on hold to ensure they aren’t corrupted by money.

Fantasy Mailbag

Would you ride or die this season with Wilson? Andrew Brown out. Photo by Football Schedule. — Would you ride or die this season with Wilson? If you chose to ride or die, you don’t bench him versus Philly, do you? Photo by Football Schedule.

Question I: From Shaun Higgins: I have a trade question in a dynasty league. The point system is a standard league with 1/2 ppr, we start two RBs. The following are my RBs:

Ray Rice
Frank Gore
Bilal Powell
Rashard Mendenhall
Shane Vereen
Brandon Bolden

I have been offered Bernard Pierce and a 2014 2nd round pick for Bilal Powell and my 2014 3rd round pick. I am concerned with Baltimore’s offense and Pierce’s output this year. Also, I’m concerned with how Powell will produce once Ivory is healthy (for however long that might last) and Goodson comes back. What are your thoughts long-term on both backs? Do you think this is a good move?

Shaun – I think the Baltimore ground game will get addressed with the help of Eugene Monroe, the tackle the Ravens acquired from Jacksonville this week. However, this helps Rice far more than Pierce, because the Ravens are committing more to Rice than they are his backup. Whether it’s in Baltimore or elsewhere, I think Pierce has a chance to develop into a fantasy RB2 in 2-3 years. Powell’s time to demonstrate he’s RB2-caliber for the next 2-3 years is now. Neither player possesses jackpot, long-term RB1 upside. I think Powell is the more versatile player and Pierce is the more power runner.

However for you, this deal comes down to two factors:

A) Is your team strong at other positions and you’re contending now? If so, Powell is better for you this year.

B) Is your team struggling and unlikely to contend this year or next? If so, Pierce gives you continuity with Rice and you gain a second-round pick, which could provide you more RB depth.

Question II: From Nathan Smith – Should I start Roddy White, Giovani Bernard, or Kenbrell Thompkins over David Wilson this week as one of two flexes in a league with this lineup?

QB	Michael Vick, Phi QB		@NYG	Sun 1:00	4	91.5	22.9	14.4	24	30th	53.4	100.0	+0
RB	Ray Rice, Bal RB		@Mia	Sun 1:00	39	32.8	8.2	2.3	8.2	30th	87.0	100.0	+0
RB	Trent Richardson, Ind RB		Sea	Sun 1:00	19	53.6	13.4	15.7	17.9	9th	100.0	100.0	+0
RB/WR	David Wilson, NYG RB		Phi	Sun 1:00	50	26	6.5	12.9	11.7	26th	67.0	97.4	-0.6
WR	A.J. Green, Cin WR		NE	Sun 1:00	10	79.6	19.9	13.6	19	6th	100.0	100.0	+0
WR	Josh Gordon, Cle WR		Buf	W 37-24	41	47.3	11.8	12	17.1	31st	35.8	98.7	+2.6
WR/TE	Brandon Marshall, Chi WR Q		NO	Sun 1:00	8	81	20.3	18.3	19.5	3rd	96.9	100.0	+0
TE	Jordan Cameron, Cle TE		Buf	W 37-24	2	100.8	25.2	26.3	21.2	7th	83.8	96.9	+6.4
D/ST	Falcons D/ST D/ST		NYJ	Mon 8:30	26	17.1	4.3	-1.3	8.8	29th	8.2	13.4	+3
K	Nick Novak, SD K		@Oak	Sun 11:35	5	44.1	11.0	13.9	9.9	14th	12.3	14.9	+7.6
BENCH			WK 5		2013 SEASON				WEEK 5
SLOT	PLAYER, TEAM POS	ACTION	OPP	STATUS ET	PRK	PTS	AVG	LAST	PROJ	OPRK	%ST	%OWN	+/-
Bench	Doug Martin, TB RB		BYE		13	62.9	15.7	12.2	—	—	66.0	100.0	+0
Bench	Giovani Bernard, Cin RB		NE	Sun 1:00	16	61.6	15.4	15.2	17.4	13th	63.4	100.0	+0
Bench	Andrew Luck, Ind QB		Sea	Sun 1:00	7	85.6	21.4	20.5	14.2	4th	38.2	100.0	+0
Bench	Kenbrell Thompkins, NE WR Q		@Cin	Sun 1:00	25	63.1	15.8	26.3	13.2	16th	33.7	82.8	+28.6
Bench	DeAndre Hopkins, Hou WR		@SF

I thought White looked good from what I watched. He was officially targeted 9 times, but I would say that about half of those should not be counted as targets. Passes overthrown by a lot, or in the dirt. He had about 5 or 6 catchable balls maybe and he did well.

So I traded for him. I was offered Roddy for Julius Thomas and since I am also a Cameron owner, I took the offer. Wondering what you think about the fact that Tennessee destroyed the Jets last week in the passing game, and if you think ATL can do the same at home. I think Roddy is due for a game.

Nathan, I thought White looked better, but not good. He still lacks the burst and strength/stability in the ankle to play his true game, which is about precise timing routes in tight coverage. Teams are still playing off White and the Falcons are still jerry-rigging its offense to use him. Until White can practice fully during the week leading to a game, I’d bench him. In fact, White suffered a setback in that game, so I’d avoid him this week. Thompkins is gaining ground, but he’ll be facing a pretty good set of cornerbacks. I think Bernard offers the most PPR upside, but he and Thompkins are pretty even.

However, I’m not sure I’d bench Wilson against the Eagles defense. If you’re going to stay patient with Wilson, this is the week to show it and use him. The Giants cut Da’Rell Scott and Brandon Jacobs hasn’t looked as good as Wilson. I’d go upside with your lineup and continue to start Wilson.

Question III: How hard would you be looking to upgrade from Vick in 14 team redraft?

Rodgers owner is 0-4 with all kinds of holes. I have a bench with DeAngelo, Powell, Mathews, Mike Williams and Blackmon to try to pepper into a 2 for 1 or 3 for 1 deal.

If you can ply Rodgers from an owner with the combo of Vick and 1-2 of those players that you’re not using, do it.

Listens – A Night in Tunisia

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Futures at Football Outsiders: Texas A&M OT Jake Matthews

October 5, 2013 0 Comments read 2014 NFL Draft

What does the Matthews family have in common with the Marsalis family? Generational excellence at a craft. Photo by mll.

Futures: Texas A&M OT Jake Matthews

By Matt Waldman

I heard a great story about Lawrence Taylor this week from my friend Sigmund Bloom. Thanks to NFL Films, the Hall of Fame linebacker and “trash talk” go together like K-Tel and “greatest hits” – complete with a low-budget, late-night commercial featuring a scrolling list of titles for your listening pleasure:

“Yeah, Yeah, Yeah, stick – you mine. You mine, baby!”

“C’mon baby, you can’t pussy-foot it up in there, you gotta run it.”

“Homeboy, you can’t play that stuff in here; you’re gonna have to go outside.”

“Let’s go out there like a bunch of crazed dogs and have some fun!”

“Son, you gotta do better than this…”

Remember, this is Lawrence Taylor/K-Tel. If you want to pay good money for trash talk, order from the Shannon Sharpe Smack Soundtrack. At the end of the day, the talk means little if a player can’t walk it, and Taylor could walk it in his sleep. Well, with the exception of the week a rookie tackle let Taylor tie himself into a mental knot.

It was early in the game. Taylor stood opposite the rookie tackle, wasting no time dishing it to the offensive lineman.

“Rookie, I’m going to beat you to the left,” drawls Taylor, standing over what he had to think was fresh fish. Without missing a beat, the tackle shot back with a question.

“Which left? Your left or my left?”

Taylor, caught off-guard by the serious tone and the nature of the question, paused for a split-second –- just long enough to think about it -– as the center snapped the ball. That hesitation was all it took for the first-year tackle to dispatch of Taylor on the play. Sure, Taylor probably got the best of this rookie several times in that game, but the interaction underscores the point that offensive linemen are often some of the most intelligent players on the field.

One of the best of these quick-thinking, quick-footed behemoths in college football today is Texas A&M tackle Jake Matthews. Yes, he’s from the Matthews family that includes Grandpa Clay Sr., Uncle Clay Jr., Father Bruce, and Cousin Clay III. We’re talking over 50 years of NFL experience -– 18 of them Pro Bowl seasons. It’s like a functional, football version of the Jacksons –- down to Casey Matthews as its LaToya.

Jokes aside, the fact that Casey even earned an NFL opportunity speaks to the talent of a football family whose best musical parallel is the Marsalis clan. If there’s a compelling argument for teams to mention “bloodlines” when filing a scouting report, the Matthews and Long families would be Exhibits A and B of a lengthier list of NFL bloodlines than you may imagine.

It may seem like an imposing standard for Jake Matthews to follow his father Bruce in to the NFL –- and it’s probably something we’ll never learn until his career is over –- but examining the Aggie lineman’s potential solely on the basis of physical talent, technical skill, and conceptual acumen for the game, the younger

Matthews has a strong shot of doing something his dad did 30 years ago: earning a top-10 selection in the NFL Draft.

Although Matthews hasn’t done enough as a left tackle to provide quality footage at this spot, there is one particular opponent he faced last year as a right tackle who is a good test for anyone on the left side, college or NFL. That would be Barkevious Mingo, who, like Lawrence Taylor, displays rare athleticism and relentlessness off the edge as an outside linebacker. Even as a right tackle last year, Matthews’ matchup with Mingo at LSU and the athletes at Alabama are performances that any NFL prospect at left tackle would be proud to have in his portfolio.

Read the rest at Football Outsiders

Blocking: Alabama WR Kevin Norwood

October 1, 2013 0 Comments read 2014 NFL Draft, Players, Wide Receiver

Orange with pepper? Might as well watch a wide receiver in college football block. Right? Photo by Robert Tewart.

To the casual college football viewer, wide receivers and blocking go together like orange slices with pepper or french fries dipped in a Frosty. Both seem odd, but they work. A receiver who does his best to make the position and the task fit together Alabama’s Kevin Norwood.

I can think of dozens of receivers at the college level that I’ve seen who are better blockers. However, sometimes there’s a play worth showing because it’s instructive. This run block in the Texas A&M game is a good example of gauging the correct angle. And football at its best is the ability to anticipate and address the angles of the opposition.

[youtube=http://youtu.be/38aI1BhEztU]

This is a great angle by Norwood. Watching the play at full speed you might think he overran his target. But if Norwood overran the safety, how could he make the correct decision to turn the defender to the sideline without seeing the hole that his running back chose?

As with any play call, Norwood knows the general direction of this run and understands that his job is to seal the defender to the outside. The Crimson Tide receiver takes an angle to the safety’s inside shoulder to force the defender on an outside path. If the defender beats Norwood’s block to the outside, there’s a greater chance he’ll overrun the path to the ball carrier.

If the defender doesn’t get outside, Norwood has an easier task of turning the safety to the sideline and driving the defender backwards. This is a good example of leverage by body position in the run game.

By no means is this a perfect block. Norwood is overextended as he makes the turn. His pads and head are down and too far ahead of his hips. At this point, he has lost control of his form and his body. The safety should have been able to grab Norwood by the pads and rip the receiver outside and then take an inside path to the ball carrier. Instead, the safety tries to throw Norwood inside towards the ball carrier.

While inventive, the safety also has to improve his skills at shedding blocks because this decision is the difference between a third and short and a first down.

As for those of you wondering about Norwood as an NFL prospect, I’ll have more about him in the coming months. I will tell you that he has the athleticism and baseline skills against tight coverage to compete for a roster spot. The key for Norwood will be consistency in the passing game and effort like this in the run game. Compared to the pack of receivers draft analysts will lump Norwood, the Alabama senior is ahead of the game in this respect.

For analysis of skill players in this year’s draft class, download the 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio.The 2014 RSP will available April 1 and if you pre-order before February 10, you get a 10 percent discount. Better yet, if you’re a fantasy owner the 56-page Post-Draft Add-on comes with the 2012 – 2014 RSPs at no additional charge and available for download within a week after the NFL Draft. Best, yet, 10 percent of every sale is donated to Darkness to Light to combat sexual abuse. You can purchase past editions of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio for just $9.95 apiece.

Reads Listens Views 9/27/2013

September 27, 2013 0 Comments read Reads Listens Views

Listens I – Moto Perpetuo as performed by Sergei Nakariakov

[youtube=http://youtu.be/QXnkAnmAOEc]

This little ditty was composed for violin, but Nakariakov performs this endless tire drill with articulation (think footwork for running backs) that would put Barry Sanders to shame. By the way I listened to Wynton Marsalis perform this, but he slurred everything. Nothing wrong with it. In fact, it has a more lyrical quality. But technically Narkariakov’s performance is more impressive.

Thank You

If you’re new to my blog. This is my Friday Free-For-All of football and non-football content that I found interesting this week. You may not like everything, but you’re bound to enjoy something in this post. I have greater readers. It’s a small, but awesome community and I appreciate all the support over the past 10 years I’ve been writing about football in some capacity.

Commentary: Terrelle Pryor – I’m a fan

: I’m impressed with Pryor. You should be, too.

When the Raiders picked the Ohio State star in the NFL Supplemental Draft, I thought this was a case of Al Davis having a case of beer goggles. If you haven’t read my pre-draft assessment of Pryor, you should. While my overall takeaway was that Pryor had a lot of hard work to do, I said he had the talent to be a dominant quarterback if he could work hard and learn fast.

Pyror isn’t dominant right now, but I’m so impressed with what he’s done to correct his release, change his footwork, and adjust his style of maneuvering the pocket. He’s the rare example of a quarterback who has overhauled his playing style with enough success that his third-round selection may prove to be a steal in hindsight.

Seriously folks, look at Tim Tebow. Pryor had similar issues as a passer and even better athleticism and arm strength, which could easily give him a sense that he didn’t need to work as hard has he did to correct his technical flaws. You could even argue that compared the Broncos organization, the Raiders have been a dumpster fire.

It should tell you that when it comes to a player’s development, it’s ultimately how hard the player is willing to work and find the right resources to help him along. Pryor’s development tells us just as much about his mental-emotional makeup as his physical talents. As my buddy Bloom likes to ask, “If the draft were held today, would Pryor’s status be different?” And the answer is “no question.”

Pryor would be a top-10 pick. In fact, I would have rate Pryor alongside Cam Newton based on what we know today. The rate he’s developing game to game is startling. Most increments of growth are too slow to see weekly without deep examination of the player and system. This is like watching grass actually grow with time-elapsed photography.

Reads (Football)

Planes, Turnovers, and Adrian Peterson – Doug Drinen explains coaches should see fumbling to a certain extent as “you can’t win if you don’t try.” Some one find a telegraph and get Coughlin the message.
Game Scripts – Chase Stuart’s work at Football Perspective
Futures: Aaron Murray – I finished a piece about Johnny Manziel for Saturday. This is a good one to read first.

Fiction Recommendation

I work at a magazine during the day where I write (really write – not this stuff that barely passes as such) features as an in-house staff writer and editor. One of our hired guns is an Atlanta-based writer by the name of Charles McNair. In addition to writing about business, he’s the books editor at Paste Magazine and he’s a novelist. Land O’Goshen, his first novel, was nominated for a Pulitzer. Yesterday, McNair kicked off the tour for his second novel, Pickett’s Charge, which is about an old man who busts loose from an Alabama prison – I mean nursing home – to avenge his brother’s death about 65-70 years earlier in the Civil War. Yep, the protagonist is 114 years old and he travel across the 1960s south.

As McNair – or Zach Law’s wife Amy, who does the PR work for the author – says, “Imagine Kurt Vonnegut and Ken Kesey joining forces with Shelby Foote and Margaret Mitchell to tell the last story of the American Civil War. Welcome to Pickett’s Charge.” Go here to learn more, read the first chapter, and buy the book. McNair is a fine writer and I’m looking forward to reading his second book.

By the way, McNair also recommends Thomas Mullen, who I also can’t wait to read. You can check out Mullen’s work here – including a tail of bank robbers who come back to life each morning after they were shot up the night before.

Listens II – If you thought the Miami Hurricanes’ football team was good, the musicians that regular matriculate through its jazz program are just as talented

[youtube=http://youtu.be/C4fsXCyZIZI]

Views – Autumn is a great time of year (and I think these leaves are laced with something).

[youtube=http://youtu.be/7xEX-48RHCY]

Reads (Non-Football)

The New Old-School Birth Control – Not sure some of you should try this at home – or on the road.
What Happens When a Store Lets Customers Return Whatever They Want – Considering the last story, it’s a good thing L.L. Bean doesn’t sell the flannel lined prophylactic. Imagine that catalog picture? Those Nebraska boys with the old Sears catalogs would have lost their minds.
Why Scandinavian Prisons Are Superior – For those of you comparison shopping. Perhaps the mayor’s of Chicago and Detroit should tell its city that if they fly to northern Europe and do their dirty deeds there, they’d get a better deal.
I Quit Teach for America – Five weeks was not enough to prepare her for unruly students. My brother knows. He did the gig for two years. We briefly thought about writing a book about his experiences. He opted to have Harvard pay for his PhD instead. He can write a book another time about it. He’s the smart one. I play the fool.
The Town Where the Men Are All Marked – What’s a Reads Listens Views where I don’t provide commentary about race in America?
Prostitution and Sex Abuse Spread As Lebanon’s Refugee Crisis Worsens – This is part of the revolving cycle of violence that increases when societies collapse. Not that it isn’t prevalent in functional society.

Listens III – Bernhoft “On Time”

[youtube=http://youtu.be/EJfnvna4kwI]

Listens IV – Maynard Ferguson and the University of Miami and North Texas State alumni band (might as well be).

[youtube=http://youtu.be/5zQBXI5igX0]

The Gut Check No.279 – Assessing the Quarter Pole of the Fantasy Season

September 26, 2013 0 Comments read Matt Waldman

Leave at the curb? Wait a few more miles? Ride or die? Which call should you make with these worrisome players? Matt Waldman scouts the fantasy football landscape at the season’s quarter pole.

Stranded With Bramel: A true Story

This week’s Gut Check begins with a true story (except for one name change – and it’s not the car) that may not seem like it has anything to do with fantasy football, but I promise it does. Stay with me here. It will all be clear soon enough.

Whether it’s a new destination or an old familiar place, there’s nothing more fun than a road trip with friends. Even a familiar journey can present the unexpected. Sometimes these unforeseen events will force its traveler’s to make difficult choices. Take this year’s Senior Bowl trip with Jene Bramel.

Last January was the good doctor’s second trip to Mobile, Alabama to cover the all-star game’s practices with me and Cecil Lammey for the New York Times, the Rookie Scouting Portfolio, and Lammey’s ESPN affiliate. Usually, I pick up everyone at the Atlanta airport and I drive the team to Mobile. Lammey had to make other plans this year so it was Jene and I making the drive.

I’ve been chauffeuring the crew to Mobile and around town for the past five years. Despite odd stories like late-night scavenger hunts for reliable wireless that once led us to an empty Hooter’s parking lot after hours just to file those New York Times practice reports, it has always been an easy gig to be the driver. Even so I had the feeling I should consider renting an SUV last year.

The reason is that I bought a used Prius six months earlier. It works great around town and I even drove it to Memphis without issue on a summer trip with Alicia. However, it’s the Tashard Choice of cars: It’s small, it lacks acceleration, and no one’s really comfortable with the idea of having it carry the offense.

My particular Prius also has two quirks. One is that it has a name. Alicia likes to name machines. I think it’s a backwoods way of respecting the tools you’re fortunate to acquire. We call him Pete.

Pete’s other quirk is his gas gauge. While it’s cool that he gets me 46-50 miles to the gallon on a routine basis, Pete’s gauge doesn’t make a gradual drop from full to empty as you drive him. Instead, Pete will act like he still has a full tank for at least 500 miles. Then with 3-5 miles of gas left in the tank, he drops the gauge to one square above empty.

Imagine Tashard Choice getting 20 touches, looking like he’s capable of 25 more, and at touch number 22 he has a narcoleptic episode just as the ball arrives during the exchange on a toss sweep. While I knew Pete’s gauge wasn’t reliable, I track the odometer well enough to hit the gas station with at least 25-30 miles to spare. But on this Sunday afternoon in the middle of Alabama countryside, Pete conked out on Bamel and me two miles from the nearest exit.

Lot’s of decisions to make at this point: Call USAA? Call a wrecker? Walk to the exit? Go together?

My decision? Leave the northern guy in the deep south on the side of the road (sorry, Jen) to watch the car while I take off running for the exit. A quarter-mile down the road, a car with a trailer pulls to the shoulder waiting for me, windows open, blaring Styx’s “Renegade”.

Countryside. Car out of gas. Stranger offering ride in vehicle blaring song about impending death. It’s a cliche moment of a horror flick.

“I saw your car by the side of the road do you need a ride?” shouts the man over the music. He’s no more than five years older than I am, fit, weekend stubble, looks a little nervous as he’s also sizing me up. Good sign. Another good sign? A sudden wave of panic registers across his face when he realizes that not only is the radio still on, but he’s about to offer a ride to a stranger with Hangman coming down from the gallows and I don’t have very long blasting from his speakers.

“Yep. Ran out of gas. I just need to get to the next exit. What’s your name?” I ask as he tells me his name is Rick. My brain is saying this isn’t a good idea, but my gut is telling me everything’s cool. Still my brain needs a hedge. “Yeah, we’re on assignment with the New York Times for the Senior Bowl in Mobile. They’re expecting us to meet the rest of the team and file a report tonight. What do you do, Rick?”

Rick’s face softens a bit and he looks more relaxed. Meanwhile my cell phone is buzzing in my pocket.

“The Senior Bowl, huh? Good deal. I’m an ER nurse,” Rick says, explaining that it’s his day off and he’s getting ready to do some work on the house. “Was just coming back from Lowe’s when I spotted your car and your friend on the side of the road.”

I get in the car and five minutes later we’re at the only gas station in a 10-15 mile radius and they don’t have a gas canister. I buy two large jugs of distilled water, empty them in front of the gas pump, fill them with fuel in front of the state trooper who does nothing, and we head back for the car. However, we have to drive another three miles past the car because his trailer won’t navigate the median on a U-Turn.

This of course elicits another round of cell phone buzzing as we pass Bramel sitting in the sun with his iPad in the grass as he watches us pass him. We make it to Pete. I introduce the doc to the nurse, they talk shop as I fill the car and make sure it starts, we thank Rick, and we’re on our way.

In the car and on our way, Bramel and I have a few realizations. First, I’m an idiot. Not only do I leave Bramel stranded roadside without a key to the car when we have a chance to call USAA and perhaps have to wait a half-hour longer for a ride to the gas station, but I risk never being seen again after entering a car that’s too far away for Bramel to make out.

Second, I at least had some shred of common sense to invoke our affiliation with the world’s most recognized newspaper so our driver is on notice that we’ll be missed if we go missing. Third, I luck out that the driver is a good guy; an ER nurse who was equally unsure about offering a ride to a 40-something dude with a five days of scruff and sporting sunglasses and a Beast Mode t-shirt.

What does this have to do with worrisome players? First, most of you have at least one player making you feel like an idiot after the first three weeks of the season. Second, you at least have some shred of common sense or intuition about how to handle it. Third, you lucked out that I’m not playing Renegade as I write this article.

Fourth, you need to figure out if each player in this week’s Gut Check is someone you should leave at the curb, hang in there for a few more miles, or decide you’re going to ride or die with them. I’m stating my case for each but remember I’m the same guy ran out of gas in a Prius, left Jene Bramel stranded, didn’t answer my cell phone, and took a ride from a stranger.

Of course, I’m here to tell you about it which should tell you I’m either good or I’m lucky. At this point, does it matter which one it is? I didn’t think so. Let’s get started.

Leave At the Curb: Too Risky

RB Stevan Ridley: It’s not the 3.4 yards per carry or the ball security issues that have me worried about Ridley. He’s still a tough runner with burst. It’s the one reception for eight yards in three games versus Brandon Bolden‘s five catches in one week. The Patriots don’t use him in the passing game. Bolden’s 49 yards on 5 receptions is just 2 yards and 1 reception fewer than Ridley’s 2012 receiving total.

Granted, Ridley was the No.10 fantasy runner last year with that paltry total. However, Bolden ate into Ridley’s time when he was healthy last year and Vereen also battled health issues.

Read the rest at Footballguys.com

The One Trade Advice Article You Need to Read

September 18, 2013 0 Comments read Matt Waldman

There are a fair share of Jimmy Graham-sized targets in this draft, but as I finish up my rankings, only a few have a ceiling that is even in the neighborhood of the Saint. Photo by Football Schedule. — The art of the deal is a huge part of fantasy football that is not explored in depth by writers. I’m tackling in this week’s Gut Check at Footballguys. Here’s a taste. Photo by Football Schedule.

I have written close to 500 articles about fantasy football. This is the one I’m most confident will make you a better fantasy owner. It might be the best thing I’ve learned as a fantasy owner in years. Ironically, the person who provided me the majority of this knowledge has no experience playing fantasy football.

In nearly 20 years of writing about this hobby, I’ve never read a good article that discusses how to become better at making trades. I’m sure there are some, but not in the circles I’ve traveled as a fantasy writer (and it’s a pretty broad circle). I broached the topic with Sigmund Bloom this afternoon when he called me to share his rant against trading Michael Vick.

Bloom agreed he hasn’t seen any quality articles about the strategies behind making deals. He proposed we collaborate one night on the subject. A trained lawyer, Bloom has some good negotiation skills. I also have some chops of my own as a former salesman (when I actually try). However, the best negotiator I know is my wife, Alicia.

Those of you who read me regularly know by now that when I invoke my wife’s name in writing 99 percent of the time it is for comic relief. Today is that one percent exception. Alicia is a corporate buyer. With millions of dollars of spend under her responsibility, she negotiates for a living with Fortune 100 companies. Her negotiation style is also regarded as rare in the field because she’s adept at several styles rather than relying on just one.

Some of my best friends have benefited from her negotiation advice in recent years. It inspired me to attempt to write this article this summer, but I just didn’t have enough perspective to translate her knowledge to fantasy football. I wasn’t asking her the right questions. The combination of Bloom’s initial topic, my wife’s knowledge, and some information I acquired just a few days ago while covering a non-football story at my day job helped me figure out the right questions to ask.

I haven’t been a good trade negotiator in fantasy football. Some who got the worse end of deals with me might disagree, but they’re looking at the art of the deal the wrong way.

I’m lucky when I get time to assess my collective free agent pools for 30 minutes a week. I’m in too many leagues and I’m likely to be giving notice in half of them this spring. I want to have time to analyze my league’s market and negotiate on behalf of my teams.

This year I’ve already accepted and turned down two deals I shouldn’t have in dynasty leagues. The reason is I never had a clear understanding of good negotiation tactics and what is required to cultivate them.

Until now.

Part I: Adopt A Negotiator’s Mindset

There are three fundamental things you have to internalize as a fantasy owner if you want to become good at the art of the deal:

1. You need to know the spectrum of players you want and the spectrum of players you’re willing to give away.

2. You need to have real commitment to your limits and be willing to lose.

3. You need to evaluate your skills at trade negotiation more by the process and less by the end result.

If you don’t approach negotiations with these three steps, you are are doing no better than searching for the next bandage to cover the wound in need of surgery. The best way to begin is to take these three steps and work backwards.

Be Process Oriented More Than Results-Oriented And The Results Will Come

Becoming a good negotiator is a process. You have to be mindful of the steps and begin looking at the deal with perspective. Diplomats and business people call it vision; con artists call it the long con. It’s the same skill applied in different spheres.

Good negotiators understand that they will win and lose deals, but one of the best characteristics of a winning negotiator is that the person is easy to work with. In fantasy football this means you have to engage people and keep them interested in working with you. It’s a quality you have to develop with every potential deal. Even if a trade doesn’t come to fruition or a deal backfires for you or your trade partner, the way you conducted the negotiations will make that person return to you for future deals.

For the rest, subscribe to Footballguys.com

This is ultimately what you want.

Boiler Room: RB Todd Gurley

September 16, 2013 0 Comments read 2014 NFL Draft, Players, RSP Boiler Room Videos (Short Form), Running Back

I make player comparisons by style of players along a spectrum of talent. The mid-range of that talent spectrum for Georgia RB Todd Gurley would be Cedric Benson. Photo by Dusty Werner. — I make player comparisons by style of players along a spectrum of talent. The mid-range of that talent spectrum for Georgia RB Todd Gurley would be Cedric Benson. The upper range? Larry Johnson. Photo by Dusty Werner.

Todd Gurley’s style reminds me of Penn State star Larry Johnson. For those of you who remember Johnson for his exploits with the Chiefs than the headlines he made off the field, it’s weighty praise. What they have in common is the agility of a 210-pound runner in the powerful frame of 225-230 lb. back.

A series I started last spring at the RSP blog is The Boiler Room. One of the challenges involved with player analysis is to be succinct with delivering the goods. As the author of an annual tome, I’m often a spectacular failure in this respect.

Even so, I will study a prospect and see a play unfold that does a great job of encapsulating that player’s skills. When I witness these moments, I try to imagine if I would include this play as part of a cut-up of highlights for a draft show at a major network or if I was working for an NFL organization creating cut-ups for a personnel director. Unlike the No-Huddle Series, The Boiler Room is focused on prospects I expect to be drafted, and often before the fourth round.

It’s incredibly difficult to boil down any player with just one play. Yet, if I need a play to add to the highlight reel that will help a team make a decision where to slot Todd Gurley on its board, this is my nomination despite the fact there’s an impressive display of long speed on a 75-yard touchdown earlier in this Clemson game.

[youtube=http://youtu.be/wIOlc8M91os]

There are several things about this run that underscore Gurley’s physical talent and conceptual skill.

The first is ball security. Gurley is a primarily a power runner and to do work between the tackles at a high volume a power runner better hold onto the football. You’re going to see throughout this unusual run that he keeps the ball high and tight to his body. There are points during this run where his elbow comes loose from his side, but considering what he has to do during this 12-yard touchdown run his ball security is praiseworthy.

Gurley has the ball tucked to his left side on a run to the left. Even when he has stop short of his path outside the initial block and make a sharp bounce to the inside the ball doesn’t swing loose from his chest. This is one of the most common errors of ball security I see with running backs. They can execute incredible displays of agility and balance, but the ball-carrying arm flies loose of the body and the passing traffic may not tackle the ball carrier, but they can force a fumble.

A good stiff arm or straight-arm isn’t just for attacking defenders or avoiding a wrap-up. Gurley uses his free arm to work around bodies in space. He places his arm on the back of the lineman to stabilize his change of direction and prevent a collision with his teammate.

One of the more impressive parts of this run is Gurley’s feet. For a big back with long speed, he also has some excellent short area quickness. Watch him stutter his steps to slow his path to the outside, keep his balance after establishing contact with the blocker, and then plant with both feet to bounce the run inside. This is a great on-field example of balance and agility.

As Gurley exits the hole, the ball remains high to his chest. While the elbow could be tighter, the runner’s ball security is good enough to avoid the rip attempt by the Clemson defender. If you look close enough you can actually see Gurley squeezing the ball tighter as No.11’s arm reaches towards the ball.

From the point Gurley declares a path at the line of scrimmage until he reaches the end zone, his pad level is excellent. I also like how high his knees are as he approaches the defender he’s about to stiff arm. Note that he makes first contact with the oncoming defender and at the same time squeezes the ball high and tight. Once the defender makes contact with Gurley’s body, the Georgia runner begins to drive through it with even lower pad level.

Whether it’s a sharp cut, a change of direction, a stiff arm, or running through a defender’s wrap, Gurley’s ball security is high and tight. For a back with his strength and home run-hitting skill, it would be easy for him to run with greater abandon. The fact that he doesn’t will endear him to coaches if he can continue to display this good habit in the NFL.

These characteristics don’t guarantee that Gurley will be a star as a professional. Cedric Benson had excellent agility and footwork and true power. He had years with good production, but he would never be considered an upper echelon runner. Everyone loves Trent Richardson’s potential and while he has displayed that he is one of the more exciting young talents at the position, but he hasn’t proven he’s one of the better backs in the NFL.

What this play demonstrates is that Gurley has the skills to earn a grade within the realm of Benson and Richardson’s draft scores. The difference is that the value of running back has changed enough that there’s a 50-50 chance Gurley doesn’t find a team until the second round. You can ask draftniks more about that possibility. I’m not trying to be a junior GM from my home office – I have too many players to study for playing dress-up.

For analysis of skill players in this year’s draft class, download the 2014 Rookie Scouting Portfolio – available now. Better yet, if you’re a fantasy owner the 56-page Post-Draft Add-on comes with the 2012 – 2014 RSPs at no additional charge. Best, yet, 10 percent of every sale is donated to Darkness to Light to combat sexual abuse. You can purchase past editions of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio for just $9.95 apiece.

You can begin placing orders for the 2015 RSP in January.

Futures: UCLA OLB Anthony Barr

September 14, 2013 0 Comments read 2014 NFL Draft, Players

Anthony Barr has a first-round grade from at least one scouting department I know. What will it take for him to crack the top-10? Photo by Neon Tommy.

Futures: UCLA OLB Anthony Barr

by Matt Waldman

Which one is not like the others? Aldon Smith. Dion Jordan. Anthony Barr. If you ask Nebraska Offensive Line Coach John Garrison orNFL.com’s Daniel Jeremiah, they’ll tell you Barr is stylistically similar to both players. While Jeremiah polled five NFL Execs with a question specifically framed to link Jordan and Barr, there are people in the NFL who see the outside linebacker from UCLA as a different style of player than the Dolphins’ rookie.

A current NFL employee who has worked with several teams in the player-personnel scouting arena doesn’t see the Barr-Jordan comparison as an accurate one.

“Barr is a bit of an enigma at this point, but a very gifted athlete. I like the versatility he shows. It’s hard to think of him as anything but a strong first-round prospect. At the same time he’s a tough read; definitely not cut and dried as to where he’ll fit best in the NFL. He was very raw last year and isn’t the same athlete as Dion Jordan,” he says, explaining that the 6-foot-3 Barr lacks the length and height of the 6-foot-6 Jordan. “I don’t see the same ceiling that Jordan has as a rusher, but Barr is more versatile and very capable of playing [outside linebacker] in the 3-4 at a high level. As far as body types and skill-sets, they’re pretty different. I think Barr is closer to a raw Clay Matthews or Brian Orakpo type.”

If a college player earns a first-round grade from NFL scouts based on junior film it usually means there’s a strong case he could be a top-10 pick. This is the case for Barr, who made the switch from fullback to linebacker last year and had an eye-catching rookie season at the position:

82 tackles
21 tackles for loss
14 sacks
4 forced fumbles
4 hurries
5 passes defensed

These are good numbers for a player who still has a lot to learn about the techniques and concepts of playing his new position. One of the big reasons is speed. This is what Smith, Jordan, and Barr have in common.

It’s also the reason why this NFL employee doesn’t agree with Executive No.5 in Jeremiah’s August poll about Barr-Jordan that states, “Barr by far. He’s much stronger, and he’s not a one-trick pony. Jordan relies solely on speed.”

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