Posts tagged RSP

Flashes: Tajh Boyd Under Pressure

0 Comments read Players, Quarterback
Brent Musberger said he talked to scouts who compared Tajh Boyd to Russell Wilson. Let's have a look from the pocket. Photo by PDA.Photo.
Brent Musberger said he talked to scouts who compared Tajh Boyd to Russell Wilson. Let’s have a look from the pocket. Photo by PDA.Photo.

One of the more telling aspects of gauging a quarterback’s readiness for the NFL is how he manages pressure in the pocket. If the first response is to retreat, there’s work to be done.  It doesn’t matter if a quarterback has the athleticism to break loose of defensive ends and outrun cornerbacks, the passer still needs to harness his physical skills to meet the demands of the position. He may win some of these battles by tucking the ball and making a timely flight from the confines of the pocket, but he’ll ultimately lose the war.

Terrelle Pryor is a much better passer in 2013 than he was at Ohio State. His performance against the Colts on Sunday was entertaining and he’ll win some of these games. But until he can read the defense rather than try to exhaust it, he’ll ultimately lose. Say all you want about the state of the Raiders but as much as Pryor put his team into position to win, he was the biggest reason why they lost in the end.

Tajh Boyd is a winning college quarterback. CBS play-by-play commentator Brent Musberger told his audience during the Georgia-Clemson contest that some scouts he’s talked to say that Boyd reminds them of Russell Wilson. This is no more accurate than saying South Carolina and North Carolina are alike.  Just like the Cackalackies are in the same region, Boyd and Wilson are both mobile quarterbacks with some improvisational skill. This is where the comparison ends.

To the average viewer there’s little difference because both are mobile and can generate big plays when they escape the pocket. To elaborate on what Greg Cosell means when he talks about the importance of a quarterback winning from the pocket is that a top NFL quarterback must possess the skill to win from the pocket even if he’s not a strictly a pocket passer. Wilson was far better at managing the pocket than Boyd by his junior year. Although Wilson had his share of plays where he had to improvise, he was more consistent at maneuvering away from defenders with his feet in position to make accurate passes down field.

Boyd is in an offense where his best passing plays on the move are by design. When the pocket breaks down, the Clemson passer still has to improve his technique. He displays some good things under pressure – including basic footwork – but not enough to be a winning starter in the NFL early in his pro career.  Here are four plays from the Clemson-Georgia game that say a lot about the state of Boyd’s pocket game at this point of his career.

Good Feet – Good Improvisation

This is a 3rd-and-four pass with 11:22 in the first quarter. Clemson uses an 11 personnel, 2×1 receiver set and the primary option is Sammy Watkins who runs a slant-and-go coupled with Boyd’s pump fake off a quick play fake. However, the play breaks down fast. There are a lot of thinks happening fast on this play so you may have to watch the tape a few times.

[youtube=http://youtu.be/DVtwlQaLtR4]

Boyd fakes the ball to the runner, who drifts to the left edge to block the outside pressure. The quarterback sets his feet and delivers a quick shoulder fake as the pump fake on this first half of Watkins’ double move – the slant. As Boyd sets his feet, he sees the edge rusher begin with an inside path. The Clemson quarterback makes the appropriate reaction begins to move outside the defender’s path. However, the defender only fakes inside and dips outside the runner.

Boyd does a fine job of switching his feet the way coaches teach quarterbacks in drills. This switch orients Boyd so he can climb inside the pressure. He escapes to the left flat, turns his shoulder to the target and delivers the ball with a sidearm release on the run to his receiver Watkins, who does an excellent job reading the situation and working back to the quarterback.

This is a strong adjustment and a good example of quality footwork. However, the difference between Body and a quarterback like Wilson is that Wilson has illustrated that he will often wait a split-second longer for the edge rusher to declare his position and then react. If Boyd does the same, he either draws the defender inside and has a better path to the edge with a roll-out or the defender takes the outside path, Boyd never makes that initial move to the outside and he has an easier time climbing the pocket to deliver the ball in a spot where Watkins may not have to work back to a spot.

It’s a small detail, but it’s details that reduce errors and generate big plays. It’s why in college football Terrelle Pyror and Russell Wilson are both “stars” but one is far ahead of the other at the NFL level and it has nothing to do with the quality of surrounding talent.

Sometimes the option isn’t to move. 

There are times where a quarterback has to recognize that he must stand in the pocket and deliver the ball fast or miss an opportunity for a positive play. Boyd’s second touchdown of the night is a good example. This is an 11-yard slant thrown with a sidearm release and behind Watkins from a 2×1 receiver, 11 personnel set with 9:10 in the first quarter. Georgia is playing a 3-4 defense with both safeties deep and the cornerbacks playing off the outside receivers.

[youtube=http://youtu.be/3BnbLIC5yyM]

Boyd begins the play with a thorough play fake on the zone read action, getting the ball in and out of the belly of the runner. The pressure doesn’t buy the fake and constricts the edges of the pocket. It’s a quick reaction by Boyd to deliver the ball. Note that he doesn’t move his feet between the time he retracts the ball from the belly of the back through the release of the ball. This is fluid play-making.

While Watkins work at the catch point and after the catch is the attention-getter, the fact that Boyd reacts this fast and isn’t robotic about his form at the cost of missing this play is a good thing. I like that Boyd can process this fast in the short game. If he can demonstrate this skill with greater consistency in the deep intermediate and deep game and throw receivers open, he’ll be on his way to becoming a good pro prospect. Check out the section of this article on Russell Wilson where he throws open his receiver against a double A-gap blitz from Virginia Tech as an example. 

Interior Pressure

Here is an attempt to the running back Rodrick McDowell on a 3rd-and-5 check-down with 13:50 in the first quarter. Once again, Clemson is operating from a 2×1 receiver, 11 personnel pistol.

[youtube=http://youtu.be/SV3SYMr-970]

The linebacker does a solid job of disguising the pressure, but Boyd still has time to react. This is also true of the defensive lineman whose helmet is to the inside shoulder of his blocker on the same side of the blitz. Boyd needs to read these two defenders and climb the pocket to the opposite side. If he steps up and delivers the ball with his feet under him to the runner in the flat, it’s likely a completion.

Boyd’s reaction is to retreat. He slides to the right while backing away and throws the ball off his back foot with the defender wrapping him. The pass is too high for the receiver. Tough play, but good pro quarterbacks make this tough play look easy. Interior pressure is difficult for every quarterback, but with this much lead time and the position of these defenders, a good pro handles it.

Quick Decisions Need to become more consistent 

Boyd has to become more decisive and use it to harness his athleticism into a weapon that doesn’t self-destruct. This is a 3rd-and-8 pass with 2:36 in the first quarter from a 2×2 receiver, 10 personnel pistol. There’s press coverage on this play and outside linebackers threatening pressure off the edge. No.84 is running a twist with the defensive end at the bottom of the screen.

[youtube=http://youtu.be/bBYHyrBxLJA]

This twist distracts the right side of the Clemson line from the defensive end getting a free rush from the edge. Boyd looks left as this is happening and has his running back open in the flat. However, Boyd either didn’t read the threat of pressure off that edge or he’s too confident in his ability to avoid it.

The result is that Boyd holds onto the ball too long while in position to deliver an easy check down to the runner in the flat who has space to run because the defenders on the two outside receivers before the snap drop into coverage. Boyd opts to deal with the defensive end instead, but underestimates the athleticism of his opponent and has to throw the ball away – coming dangerous close to an intentional grounding call.

This is an error in judgement not just with the opponent, but situational football. Take the safe completion on 3rd-and-eight and allow the receiver to do the work after the catch in open space. The running back should be able to make one man miss. That’s his job. If it doesn’t work, it’s still the first quarter in a close game; don’t take unnecessary risks.

I still have more to study of Boyd’s game, but at this point these four plays are an illustration of a player with some feel for the pocket and room to grow, but not enough skill under pressure  that I’d compare him with the best prospects of recent quarterback classes.

For analysis of skill players in this year’s draft class, download the 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio.The 2014 RSP will available April 1 and if you pre-order before February 10, you get a 10 percent discount. Better yet, if you’re a fantasy owner the 56-page Post-Draft Add-on comes with the 2012 – 2014 RSPs at no additional charge and available for download within a week after the NFL Draft. Best, yet, 10 percent of every sale is donated to Darkness to Light to combat sexual abuse. You can purchase past editions of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio for just $9.95 apiece.

Reads Listens Views 9/6/2013

0 Comments read Reads Listens Views
He'll be back . . .
Hawaii, he’ll be back . . .

Views I: The One Specific Type of Play Where Speed Impresses

[youtube=http://youtu.be/7DhkdDl41WU]

As studly as this play is, without his skills that account for 95% of his talent I wouldn’t have cared less. Still fun to see a 230-lb. back outpace a good angle by a defensive back. By the way stay tuned for my analysis on Clemson wide receiver Sammy Watkins, who in my opinion has the ability to lap the field of every college wide receiver playing – except for one. I’ll be writing about that guy, too.

Tom Melton, I see you.

Listens I:

[youtube=http://youtu.be/OFj19M9RqT0]

Thanks to Bryan Zukowski, who is often my go-to guy for quality vids. He knows a kickin’ drummer when he hears one.

Thanks

copy-inverted-2013-rsp.png

If you’re new to the RSP, thanks for reading. I post 3-5 times a week and one of those posts is this Friday ritual where I link to material I’m consuming around the web: football articles, non-football articles, music, videos, spoken word, photos, you name it. It’s also where I thank you for supporting this blog as a reader and most important, downloading the Rookie Scouting Portfolio publication.

Why Buy The RSP? Because you not only learn the ins and outs of the rookies who get drafted, but you get the low-down on UDFAs and small-school projects. Kenbrell Thompkins, Zach Sudfeld, Marlon Brown, and Benny Cunningham are good examples from this year alone.

For $19.95 you get a 1200-page pre-draft publication that is one-part 200-page draft magazine bookmarked for easy reading and other-part 1000-page tome that shows all the work to make the front half insightful: grading checklists for each player according to his position, a glossary that defines the grading system and each thing I score, and all my play-by-play notes on each player. I show my math for even the most diehard, nut-job – and I have plenty of them (they’re my kind of people).

You also get another 150-200 page post-draft document that updates rankings based on player fit with his new team, tiered dynasty rankings, and draft value analysis based on dynasty drafts. This RSP will help you this year, next year, and often times the year after in you dynasty drafts, re-drafts, and the waiver wire. Knowledge is power and you’ll be able to see the signs a little sooner when a player is poised for a breakout.

Past issues (2006-2012) are available for $9.95 apiece and I donate 10 percent of every RSP sale to Darkness To Light, a non-profit whose mission is to prevent and address sexual abuse in communities through training people to be aware of the dynamics, the stats, and how to help victims of this crime. As football fans who send our children to school, sports camps, churches-synagogues-mosques, it’s important that adults understand how to address this issue so they aren’t negligent (legally or morally) due to ignorance.

Download the 2013 RSP Today

Views II: I Don’t Hate Big Business, But I Do Have Contempt For Their Methodology To Keep Customers Who Don’t Want Them

[youtube=http://youtu.be/xh1qCf-ohOQ]

Football Reads

Views III: Twerking + Vanity = You’re On Fire (Literally)

[youtube=http://youtu.be/863wwm28f4Y]

Non Football Reads

Listens II: Marcus Miller – “Jean Pierre”

[youtube=http://youtu.be/G7Q8Ual3coM]

My favorite electric bassist alive today.

On Scouting Wide Receivers

0 Comments read 2011 NFL Draft, 2012 NFL Draft, 2013 NFL Draft, 2014 NFL Draft, Players, Wide Receiver
If you're trying to find the next Dez Bryant, then data has a vital place but if you take the approach that tries to reverse engineer a process that is unintentionally based on the idea that all productive receivers are like Dez Bryant, it's misguided. Photo by A.J. Guel.
If you’re trying to find the next Dez Bryant, then data has a vital place but if you take the approach that tries to reverse engineer a process that is unintentionally based on the idea that all productive receivers are like Dez Bryant, it’s misguided. Photo by A.J. Guel.

I believe analytics have value, but the grading of wide receivers based heavily on speed, vertical skill, and production is an ambitious, but misguided idea. Further the application is the torturing of data to fit it into a preconceived idea and making it sound objective and scientific due to the use of quantitative data.  Unless the data is getting into some Nate Silver-like probability analysis, analytics is going to arrive at conclusions that are safe based on the past, but lack game-changing predictive value.

Some of my colleagues and friends at Football Outsiders, Pro Football Focus, and RotoViz will disagree.  And many of you will too, because you’ve bought the idea that what’s being studied is objective and scientific. There is often an air of certainty and black-and-white finality to the communication of this “quantitative” information that readers find more palatable than if “qualitative” information is delivered with the same tone. Numbers make people sound more powerful and intellectual even if the quality of the information isn’t well designed.

I can tell you that I write because I put words together in a pattern that you can read. It doesn’t mean that I’m writing well. The NFL has bought into analytics for reasons that are both sound and naive. Analytics should only get better over time and I believe in its future. I just don’t buy into it lock, stock, and barrel.  I think in this area of study with wide receivers, analytics needs to raise its standard and find another way.

The NFL will realize this about some methods of analytics sooner than later. Many teams are seeking a magic pill without fully understanding the manufacturing process that goes into it. Since they have been able to get this information for a modest fee and oftentimes at no charge in the early days (and we’re just emerging from the earliest of days in the era of analytics)  because these individuals and companies found the payment of notoriety an acceptable alternative to money.

It only makes sense that “quants” figured they could make the money off readers later if they couldn’t earn it from teams now. This dynamic is also changing, but it’s worth understanding the nature behind their relationship with the league. Fortunately for both parties, they will continue to work together and only deliver better products on and off the field.

I’m trying to do the same from a different vantage point. The more I watch wide receivers, the less I care about 40 times, vertical results, or broad jumps. Once a player meets the acceptable baselines for physical skills, the rest is about hands, technique, understanding defenses, consistency, and the capacity to improve.

I liked Kenbrell Thompkins, Marlon Brown, Austin Collie, (retired) Steve Smith, several other receivers lacking the headlining “analytical” formulas that use a variety of physical measurements and production to find “viable” prospects. What these players share is some evidence of “craft”. They weren’t perfect technicians at the college level or early in their NFL careers, but you could see evidence of a meticulous attention to detail that continued to get better.

This video does an excellent job of explaining why speed is the most overrated part of a wide receiver’s game. Speed should be seen as the icing and not the cake. Technique is the cake. It’s a great instructional guide on route releases and breaks, how they differ on the NFL level. Check it out. I continue to on a regular basis.

[youtube=http://youtu.be/ZLjgZc0sYIc]

For analysis of skill players in this year’s draft class, download the 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio available now. Better yet, if you’re a fantasy owner the 56-page Post-Draft Add-on comes with the 2013 RSP at no additional charge and available for download within a week after the NFL Draft. Best, yet, 10 percent of every sale is donated to Darkness to Light to combat sexual abuse. You can purchase past editions of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio for just $9.95 apiece.

Flashes: WR Allen Hurns, Miami

0 Comments read 2014 NFL Draft, Players, Wide Receiver
Receptions verus contact heighten my attention to a player's potential. Photo of Victor Cruz by Kat Vitulano
Receptions verus contact heighten my attention to a player’s potential. Photo of Victor Cruz by Kat Vitulano

Long-time college and NFL coach Dave Wannestedt told an ESPN crew that he awarded Dion Lewis a full ride to Pitt after watching just one play of the Browns running back’s high school tape. Sounds foolish, but I won’t lie: There are some plays impressive enough that you realize you’ve seen much of what you need to see. These are rare moments and other than Adrian Peterson, I can’t remember the last time I experienced that feeling about a player after witnessing one play.

While no magic pill, there is a type of play for wide receivers that is guaranteed to heighten my interest in a player. I call it the Money Catch. Give me a receiver who can make these consistently and I’m less concerned about his height, weight, 40-time, bench press, or stats. A receiver who demonstrates this skill may not become an NFL starter, but there are few quality NFL starters who lack this ability.

University of Miami wide receiver Allen Hurns flashes this skill. The 6’3″, 195-pound prospect also provides a good illustration of a technique flaw I’ve heard many pro receivers discuss: Leaving one’s feet to catch a target that doesn’t require it. I still have more to watch of Hurns’ game, but here are three clear examples of good technique and a habit that needs curbing.

Money Catch

[youtube=http://youtu.be/JT5gkKPpWiw]

This is a 3rd-and-16 pass from a 1×2 receiver, 11 personnel shotgun set from a 3-3-5 look. Quarterback Stephen Morris’ makes a fine throw for Hurns to have an opportunity to make the reception. Still, it’s the wide receiver on this pitch and catch who does the dirty work. Hurns finds the opening in the zone under one safety and inside another on this post route after getting an inside release on the corner in shallow zone.

One of the tougher aspects of a catch with impending contact is when a player gets “ping-ponged” or hit in succession in different directions so one hit ricochets him into another from the opposite direction. Hurns does a fine job of protecting the football on this target.

If I were to nitpick, the hand position to catch the football could be a little better. Ideal hand position would be for Hurns’ index fingers angled upward but point towards each other rather than at 12 o’clock. The hands should look a spider web. This technique reduces the likelihood of the ball sliding through the fingers.

Overall, a strong play.

Leaving Feet – Part I

[youtube=http://youtu.be/yjAR_4CS_6Y]

This target is a 3rd-and-7 pass for a 10-yard gain from the UM 31 with 2:38 in the half. Hurns is the single receiver from a 11 personnel, 1×2 shotgun set. He is lined outside the numbers in the right flat with two safeties split towards the hashes.

The CB on Hurns is playing seven yards off and bails early, leaving a cushion for Hurns to break his route at the first down marker. He makes the catch with his hands, but if you look closely, just as his hands make contact with the ball he leaves his feet. He’s already trying to get into position to run.

The idea is a good one, but this is where the habit of leaping to catch a ball when not required can create a lapse of concentration. Hurns fails to secure the ball with the initial touch and fights the ball into his body during his turn. While not conclusive, I believe his adjustment disorients him just enough that he takes the wrong path down field towards three defenders rather than running up the sideline.

I like that Hurns gains three yards after the catch and bounces off contact with a good finish, but if he catches the ball with his feet on the ground, turns and takes an outside path towards the cornerback in a one-on-one situation, I think he gains a lot more than three yards.

Leaving Feet – Part II

[youtube=http://youtu.be/3-lAJwFkXSQ]

This is a 2nd and goal from the six with 6:11 in the third quarter from another three-receiver, 11 personnel shotgun. Hurns runs the slant and drops the ball after an initial juggle of the target. Watch the two replays after the first airing and you’ll see where Hurns takes a long step to gather his body for a jump. Because the pass is a little late and to the back shoulder, Hurns cannot make a strong adjustment to the ball after this elongated step forces him to leave his feet.

The throw could have been better, but Hurns’ habit of going airborne – even if it’s not a jump with any height – not only diminishes Hurns’ ability to focus on looking the ball into his hands, but also creates situations where he commits to a direction before the target arrives.

For analysis of skill players in this year’s draft class, download the 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio.The 2014 RSP will available April 1 and if you pre-order before February 10, you get a 10 percent discount. Better yet, if you’re a fantasy owner the 56-page Post-Draft Add-on comes with the 2012 – 2014 RSPs at no additional charge and available for download within a week after the NFL Draft. Best, yet, 10 percent of every sale is donated to Darkness to Light to combat sexual abuse. You can purchase past editions of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio for just $9.95 apiece.

Fantasy Throwdown – Free Weekly Fantasy Football

0 Comments read Matt Waldman

Try Fantasy Throwdown – a free, simple, convenient and fast way to play every day that will keep you coming back for more.

Fantasy Throwdown is a game with one-on-one match ups allow you to challenge anyone, anytime. You can play 20 times in a week or you can play once a month – whatever fits your schedule. Lineups include PPR/non-PPR; Team Defense/IDP; and flex options – including 2QB leagues.Challenge friends or other users on the site.It’s easy to learn:

  • Challenge a friend or another person on the site.
  • You and your opponent determine the three games for that week that will comprise your player draft pool.
  • Pick your games wisely as well as your draft order, because you each get to block a player from the draft pool during the draft. If there’s only two good QBs from those games you selected, you can set it up to force your opponent to settle for a scrub.
  • Draft your team.

The draft room displays the summary of the challenges lineup requirements, scoring rules, and players each team has to pick.

Drafts take 10 minutes if you and your opponent are both online. Or you can stretch out the draft throughout the course of the week or even do predraft settings.

Challenge me to a game either by registering and looking me up on the Leaderboard in the Lobby (matt) or use my email address: thegutcheck@gmail.com.

Reads Listens Views 8/30/2013

0 Comments read Reads Listens Views
Good player with a chance to seal this feature role with Andrew Brown out. Photo by Football Schedule.
Good player with a chance to seal this feature role with Andrew Brown out. Photo by Football Schedule.

Now What?

Andre Brown is gone and David Wilson will be a hot commodity. The same people hot for Wilson will probably be less thrilled about the Giants running back in the first month if Footballguys writer Matt Bitonti is correct about his assessment of New York’s offensive line. On our Thursday Night Audible podcast, Bitonti explained that the injuries to David Diehl and David Baas are good reasons why the unit may struggle early. If you want to play the ultra-slick move, don’t trade for Wilson now. Wait for the line to struggle, Wilson to have boom-bust production, and get him at a lesser cost by Weeks 3-5. By the end of the season, you might have a running back producing at a top-five clip in your fantasy leagues. The risk might be that Wilson’s big-play ability will compensate for the line’s struggles, but if you’re simply dealing from a strength, why not wait and see?

Also, look for the Giants to add a runner. Sigmund Bloom mentioned Tim Hightower. Good name. I’d also see if they scan the waiver wire or consider a bigger name free agent or trades for a backup if none of the pickings on the waiver wire next week suit them.

Marlon Brown continues to impress. So is Jordan Todman. Add Benny Cunningham to the list, and you’re looking at three players you might consider adding if you’re in a 20 (Brown), 30 (Todman), or 40-man (Cunningham) roster league. Brown has high-end starter upside. Todman has enough skill to provide committee support as a lead back if Maurice Jones-Drew gets hurt. And Cunningham? Think of a poor man’s Stephen Davis in terms of his style. I’m really impressed with his return from an injury that would have prevented many athletes from producing in training camp. The same goes for Brown.

Thank You

If you’re a new follower, Friday is the day of the week that I thank you for supporting the Rookie Scouting Portfolio Publication and this blog I maintain and provide links to things I’m reading, listening, and viewing. You may not like everything, but I think you’ll like something.

If you’re not aware, I donate 10 percent of every sale to the Darkness to Light, a non-profit that creates and administers training programs to combat and prevent sexual abuse in communities across the country. I do this because at this time I do not have time to give back as a volunteer to any cause on a regular basis.

I chose this cause for several reasons. Among them was the Penn State scandal, which was a macrocosm of the dynamics at play when a child is victimized and those responsible for protecting them make all the wrong decisions. Sexual abuse doesn’t “ruin” children. What’s often far more damaging is the behavior of the men and women who are supposed to protect, support, and help the children who report being victimized and are often not believed and even shamed for seeking help.

And it’s not just the victims who have to carry the burden of what was done to them by the abuser and those adults who did nothing to help them.

Download the 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio or better yet, donate to Darkness to Light.  Be a part of the solution they have developed to educate schools, community organizations, and civil service organizations on the data and dynamics that define this problem of epidemic proportions.  At the very least read these Five Steps to Protecting Children.

Listens

[youtube=http://youtu.be/gxJXgCr63LU]

Football Reads

Listens

Buika: Tiny Desk Concert

Non-Football Reads

Views – Nothing Gets Me Ready For the Season More Than Watching Some Marshall Faulk

[youtube=http://youtu.be/QvMyJWJUE5g]

Win a 2013 RSP Today – CONTEST CLOSED

0 Comments read RSP Publication
Hint. Photo by PDA Photo
Hint. Photo by PDA Photo

I’m giving gave away three 10 Rookie Scouting Portfolios today. This is over 1400 pages of pre-draft and post-draft gold distilled into an easy-to-access reference guide for fantasy owners and draftniks alike. If you’re one of the first three people to find the page on my site and give the correct answers, you win.

Details/Clues

There is a page on my site with three names of NFL players. You won’t recognize these players at first unless you have a really good eye at brain teasers. Find the page, complete the task on the page and submit the answers on the form on the page and the first three 10 correct answers win won.

More Clues:

  • I think the best place to start looking is to “Go Home”
  • Once I’m home, I’d consider hitting the bar.
  • At this particular bar, you’ll have seven broad choices. I’d see what it’s all About.

Good luck!

RSO Writers’ League Diary Preseason Week 3

0 Comments read Matt Waldman
RSO founder Matt Papson acquired Antonio Brown as a part of a rebuilding plan. Photo by bmward_2000.
RSO founder Matt Papson acquired Antonio Brown as a part of a rebuilding plan. Photo by bmward_2000.

Every month I’ll be writing something about the start-up keeper-contract-salary-auction league I’m running at Reality Sports Online. You can read more about RSO’s excellent league format here. And if you want to start a league with your friends or join a league as an individual, you can earn a 20 percent discount when you use the promo code RSP20%OFF. 

in case you missed it, I recruited some of my favorite competitors from the fantasy football industry to participate:

  1. Jeff Tefertiller – Footballguys
  2. Ryan McDowell – Dynasty League Football
  3. Sigmund Bloom – Footballguys
  4. Mike MacGregor – FFToday
  5. Bryan Fontaine – Pro Football Focus
  6. Tim Stafford – Dynasty League Football
  7. Matt Papson- Reality Sports Online
  8. Matt Waldman – Footballguys/RSP/Football Outsiders
  9. Jason Wood – Footballguys
  10. Mike Clay – Pro Football Focus/NBC
  11. Bob Harris and Mike Dempsey – Football Diehards/Sirius XM
  12. Rivers McCown – Football Outsiders
  13. Jim Day – Fantasy Taz
  14. Lance Zierlein – Sideline View

You can’t get much better when it comes to the combined fantasy football savvy of this crew. Since the draft ended in late May there have been 56 waiver wire transactions and 33 players traded to other in the past 93 days. That’s almost a player changing hands per day. RSO founder Matt Papson is behind 19 of these trades after he inherited a team after the draft with a huge cap surplus. Here’s who he’s traded and acquired during this time:

Dealt

  • 3rd Round Pick
  • Maurice Jones-Drew
  • Eddie Royal
  • Zach Ertz
  • Dennis Pitta
  • Plaxico Burress
  • Ryan Fitzpatrick
  • Robert Meachem
  • Knowshon Moreno
  • Mark Sanchez

These are players that were acquired in the auction by the former owner who had to leave early due to unforseen circumstances and he didn’t leave much of a draft list. The result was a team with a lot of D-level fantasy performers but a ton of cap room to use.

Naturally, the former Eagles employee Papson has Michael Vick as his starter in the Reality Sports Online Writer's League. Photo by Matthew Straubmuller.
Naturally, the former Eagles employee Papson has Michael Vick as his starter in the Reality Sports Online Writer’s League. Photo by Matthew Straubmuller.

 

Papson, a former cap expert with the Philadelphia Eagles, jumped at the opportunity to take over this team because he realized how much financial leeway he had to rebuild the team by giving cap relief to the rest of the league in return for more promising long-term options.  You’ll see what I mean with the acquisitions below:

  • Alex Smith
  • Vick Ballard
  • Antonio Brown
  • Jonathan Baldwin
  • Rashard Mendenhall
  • Chad Henne
  • Michael Crabtree
  • Darrius Heyward-Bey
  • Donald Brown
  • Aaron Hernandez

Because Papson had so much cap room, he could absorb salaries of less-inspired options like Hernandez, Henne,  Brown, and Baldwin, while acquiring strong starters like Antonio Brown and Crabtree and serviceable depth like Smith, Mendenhall, Ballard, and Heyward-Bey.

His team now looks a lot better than it did after the draft:

  • QBs (start 1): Michael Vick, Alex Smith, and Chad Henne
  • RBs (start 2): Rashard Mendenhall, Ryan Mathews, Jonathan Dwyer Christine Michael, Vick Ballard, Peyton Hillis, Delone Carter, Donald Brown, and James Starks
  • WRs (start 3-4): Antonio Brown, Kenny Britt,  Darrius Heyward-Bey, Aaron Mellette, Michael Crabtree, Jason Avant, Harry Douglas, Michael Jenkins, Chris Harper, Eric Rogers, and Jonathan Baldwin
  • TEs (start 1-2): Kyle Rudolph, Anthony Fasano, Delanie Walker, and Michael Hoomanawanui
  • DST: New England
  • PK: David Akers

The team doesn’t have a great outlook this year unless he has 2-3 strong surprises at running back  and at least one overachiever at receiver. However, Papson is in a much better position to turn this team into a much better squad in 2014 due to his cap room of $28 million.

TEAM 2013 2013 ROOM 2014 2015 2016
SALARY SALARY SALARY SALARY
Matt Waldman $120,343,604 $2,656,396 $77,840,327 $17,472,051 $5,180,000
Sigmund Bloom $114,401,854 $8,598,146 $76,924,424 $66,591,995 $22,960,000
Bob Harris $92,170,194 $30,829,806 $54,648,827 $17,112,459 $0
Tim Stafford $116,270,444 $6,729,556 $94,096,434 $62,852,424 $20,580,000
Bryan Fontaine $111,816,814 $11,183,186 $72,813,210 $30,729,608 $1,960,000
Matt Papson $94,988,621 $28,011,379 $64,724,175 $19,619,729 $0
Jim Day $122,217,721 $782,279 $84,071,728 $61,630,735 $17,780,000
Jeff Tefertiller $123,000,227 ($227) $119,408,970 $71,227,712 $16,800,000
Jason Wood $121,988,128 $1,011,872 $94,011,311 $48,419,492 $19,740,000
Rivers McCown $115,153,657 $7,846,343 $78,761,128 $61,638,599 $15,820,000
Mike MacGregor $111,856,984 $11,143,016 $88,618,392 $63,934,800 $27,160,000
Lance Zierlein $112,661,484 $10,338,516 $71,608,178 $50,644,871 $7,420,000
Ryan McDowell $106,429,757 $16,570,243 $73,579,640 $61,004,523 $28,980,000
Mike Clay $121,503,737 $1,496,263 $46,694,512 $14,700,286 $3,640,000

The cap room over the next three years is likely the most fascinating aspect of this league. Will owners like Papson and Bob Harris benefit from the space as injuries and disappointing performances teams throughout the league? Can they acquire the right players that this money will afford them? All great questions as we move forward.

My Team

I’ve had 10 waiver wire transactions since May and most are players I’ve been monitoring during camp. I’m hoping that some of them show enough long-term promise for me to tag at year’s end or they surprise this year:

  • Zach Sudfeld – until the Patriots tight end fumbled the ball with the one’s on Thursday night, he has been excellent. I still think he earns playing time and might surprise with starter production in fantasy leagues at least until Rob Gronkowski returns. He’s fine depth behind my starter Vernon Davis if Dwayne Allen doesn’t look good after rehabbing a foot injury.
  • C.J. Anderson – This sounds crazy, but if he didn’t get hurt he might have been this year’s Alfred Morris. A big back with a low center of gravity, Anderson looked more impressive breaking tackles and avoiding penetration than any back on the Broncos depth chart and was just earning second-team reps when he went down. I think the Broncos will keep him and give him a shot to work his way up the depth chart in the second half of the season. I was impressed with Anderson at Cal, but didn’t think he’d be drafted because he wasn’t the starter at Cal. For some additional perspective, neither was Willie Parker at UNC, Priest Holmes at Texas, William Andrews at Auburn (played FB for Joe Cribbs), or Terrell Davis at Georgia.
  • Russell Shephard – I don’t think he’ll do much this year, but I do think he flashed enough as a rookie with little experience at the position that he could develop at a fast rate and earn a bigger shot by next year. Former Rice quarterback Bert Emanuel wasn’t a bad receiver in Atlanta, perhaps Shephard can follow in those footsteps.
  • Spencer Ware – You know I love me some Spencer Ware. Talent often has a funny way of rising to prominence – especially physical players like Ware.
  • Shaun Draughn – I’m not impressed with Knile Davis at all thus far. While Draughn hasn’t played as well as he did last year, I’d be surprised if he’s not part of the backfield picture and a prominent part if Jamal Charles can’t finish the year.
  • Chad Spann – Not much has been said about Spann after his first week in Jets camp. It’s hard to tell if he’ll earn a role, but I really haven’t seen enough of him in preseason to make a call on him.
  • Austin Collie – A terrific receiver when healthy, but I don’t know about the fit in San Francisco and there’s enough rust that he might need a team willing to be patient with him and that’s about has common as purple grizzly bears.
  • Julius Thomas – He continues to look good and might force his way into the Broncos’ lineup with a quarterback who isn’t shy about targeting open players regardless of their draft round, contract, or level of stardom.

Although he may seem like a waiver wire gem, I actually acquired Kenbrell Thompkins in the start-up auction. It’s early, but so far he has proven to be one of my more astute moves now he’s close to earning a starting role in New England. Truth be told, this is the type of move that normally doesn’t work out for me, but I just might have picked the right long shot this year.

Here’s my depth chart heading into the regular season:

  • QBs (start 1): Jay Cutler, Carson Palmer, and Sean Renfree
  • RBs (start 2): Steven Jackson, Arian Foster, Ben Tate, Ryan Williams, Shaun Draughn, Spencer Ware, Chad Spann, and C.J. Anderson
  • WRs (start 3-4): Calvin Johnson, DeSean Jackson, Cecil Shorts, Kenbrell Thompkins, Keenan Allen, Travis Benjamin, Marvin Jones, Marquess Wilson, Austin Collie, Russell Shephard, and Da’Rick Rogers
  • TEs (start 1-2): Vernon Davis, Dwayne Allen, Zach Sudfeld, and Luke Willson
  • DST: Seattle
  • PK: Sebastian Janikowski

Can’t say I love my team right now. Running back needs to stay healthy and I’m concerned about my lack of depth. I also have concerns about my kicker unless Terrelle Pryor can get into the lineup and at least scramble his way into field goal position enough times in games for respectable production. I think my receivers can carry me some weeks if my running backs can stay healthy and play like strong RB2s every week.

Until next month . . .

Ready to try a start-up keeper-contract-salary-auction league experience that’s easy to play and even easier to run? Go to Reality Sports Online and either start a league with your friends or join a league as an individual. You can earn a 20 percent discount when you use the promo code RSP20%OFF. 

 

Reads Listens Views 8/23/2013

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A.J. Green was the best receiver I ever saw at Georgia, but Marlon Brown is no slouch despite operating in Green's shadow. Photo by Wade Rackley
A.J. Green was the best receiver I ever saw at Georgia, but Marlon Brown is no slouch despite operating in Green’s shadow. Photo by Wade Rackley

Dynasty Alert: Baltimore WR Marlon Brown

If you were on Twitter last night, I lucked into a bit of a Nostradamus act. I saw former Georgia wide receiver Marlon Brown take the field and make his first reception and I promptly told my followers he was a player to monitor. I shared my thoughts about his high talent level and about 30-40 minutes later Brown made an excellent catch between two defensive backs on an intermediate cross for a touchdown. I was just glad to see that Brown was actually healthy enough to play this year after tearing his ACL late in the 2012 season.

If you don’t know who Brown is, I’m sharing my summary from the 2013 RSP.  Brown was my No.26 receiver, largely due to the timing of his injury and my concerns about him earning an opportunity at all this year. In fact, the Houston Texans were the first to sign Brown after the draft as a free agent then promptly dropped Brown from its roster with haste.

However, the Ravens were just as quick to sign Brown. I have looked for word about Brown from time to time this summer, but couldn’t find anything on him until I watched him tonight. If you’re in a deep dynasty league and you’re seeking players to stash on that practice squad, I recommend a flyer on the former Bulldog.

Here’s a summary from April:

Marlon Brown, (6-4, 213)

Brown’s quickness and cutting ability combined with his size makes him a physically dangerous player. The fact that he can play from the slot or get deep on the perimeter makes him a nice talent to watch after he recovers from a November ACL tear.

Brown does a good job working from the slot to find openings in the zone coverage. He does a good job working back to his QB and attacks the ball hard on his way back to the passer. He also demonstrates skill to make plays in the middle of the field on the move or with his back to the passer.

He also shows some skill to catch the ball at the first available window with his hands away from his body. He adjusts his breaks to maximize that space and he does a strong job after the catch of making cuts and keeping his pads low to avoid contact.

I like his strength and quickness – he can use a stiff arm effectively, bounces off hits, and he fights to get extra yards after he’s wrapped. Brown also showed smarts in the two-minute drill when it comes to saving his offense time with his on field awareness.

Brown needs to do a better job of delivering a punch as a blocker. He could get more aggressive on a consistent basis in the run game. There are times he seems to be tentative about his angles to the opponent. I also didn’t see him attempt a cut block.

As a receiver, he has the typical issue of most athletic players: he drops passes when he looks down field and tries to run before securing the ball. I didn’t get to see Brown execute hard breaks, face press coverage, or use his hands to get free against an opponent. However Brown is a good athlete and based on what I’ve seen him do I think he has the potential to become a good player in each of these facets of receiving.

A former five-star recruit, Brown’s spent half of his career in the shadow of A.J. Green, but is loved by his team and the coaching staff believes he has the ability to have an NFL career. Highlights below:

[youtube=http://youtu.be/BZbBl_CV8rk]

Thank You

Brown, Kenbrell Thompkins, Spencer Ware, Joique Bell, and even C.J. Anderson are examples of players I love to write about because evaluating college talent is a passion of mine and that love of studying prospects ranges from the known quantities to the guys off the radar – especially the lesser-known players. There are cynical people out there who believe evaluators like me tout unknown guys because it makes us look good without the impact of looking as bad when they fail.

I tout players I believe are good and have potential to be even better with a chance to develop in the NFL. It’s hard to list a player higher than established prospects when you know best-case he’ll be drafted late or not drafted at all. I don’t continue to talk about Cedric Peerman – even has an inside joke with my readers – because I think I’m going to look like a rookie-evaluating genius if he hits after years on the roster bubble in Cincinnati.

I have strong beliefs about players that don’t change much until I see enough evidence that counteracts the months of methodical attention to detail I spend documenting what I see. Sometimes it’s good (Russell Wilson), other times I fall flat on my face (John Beck), but all the time I’m learning and sharing what I learn, hopefully for your benefit.

So thank you for giving me the opportunity to continue this football journey. When you follow this blog and buy the Rookie Scouting Portfolio, you’re supporting my football education that comes back to you two-fold.

If you’re new to the blog, Friday is when I post links to content from around the web. I also thank you for visiting and encourage you to do yourself a favor and buy the 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio. This is a pre-draft and post-draft publication devoted to the rookies at the skill positions. Here’s information to learn more:

If you just need the basic facts, here they are: It’s the most comprehensive work you’ll find of its kind. You get over 1300 pages of material that’s well-organized and in-depth for $19.95 (past issues from 2006-2012 are $9.95). And 10 percent of each sale is donated to the organization Darkness to Light to help them fight sexual abuse.  You can download the RSP here.

Views

[youtube=http://youtu.be/YKF0X-cfQwY]

Football Reads

Non-Football Reads

  • Sonny Rollins, the Colossus – If I have to make a sports analogy, imagine an athlete with Bo Jackson’s physical skills, Michael Jordan’s drive, Brett Favre’s improvisational prowess at its most inspired, and Peyton Manning’s obsessive preparation and you only begin to grasp what this Kennedy Honor’s Recipient is all about. Seeing him in person in 2009 was a highlight of a lifetime. This performance below is the microscopic residue of a crumb of Rollins’ on stage with the horn in his hand, but it will have to do:

[youtube=http://youtu.be/A3SF5iq7iDQ]

Views II – Even If This is Part of The Corporate Machine, Bill Murray Would Be Proud

The last three minutes are worth the first four, I promise – and I work at their rival school. Imagine Stripes Meets Revenge of The Nerds.

[youtube=http://youtu.be/7Bfr__WhGJg]

2013 Fantasy Soundtracks

0 Comments read Walk on the Wild Side
Team Riddle selects Rob Gronkowski to lead off his draft. Photo by JDN.
Lamont Sanford to Sinead O’Connor? Keep reading… Photo by JDN.

Intro

Bloom and I not only grew up as the original members of the MTV Generation, but we were also the first audience of the summer movie blockbuster. From an early age it has been ingrained in us that music is a part of the story line of our lives. If you’re one of us who remembers things like Poison Arrow, Fish Heads, Headbanger’s Ball, and Martha’s Muffin, then you also remember making mixed tapes for your friends – especially girlfriends.

I was a musician in a previous life. In college I used to watch Raiders’ games with my roommate’s synthesizer at the edge of the couch so I could play sound effects of bombs dropping whenever James Jett went deep:

[youtube=http://youtu.be/y6EU_l06GwM]

Bloom lived a soundtrack as a Phishhead. Put the two of us together and it’s only a matter of time before we have to inject music into the football conversation. It only made sense that our 2013 season preview would be a soundtrack and mixed tape set to YouTube videos.

However, Einstein is the only video you’re going to see on this post due to account rights with YouTube that prevent us from embedding music here. Still, we’re providing links to each song and they will open in a separate window so you can have a soundtrack as you read our takes on players and their outlook for the year. This is us blowing off steam with two mixed tapes.

Album I, Side A: “It’s always Tease, Tease, Tease” [The Clash]

Should I stay or should I go now? . . . Should I stay or should I go now? . . . If I go there will be trouble . . . An if I stay it will be double . . . Come on and let me know . . . Should I cool it or should I blow?

Who better than the Clash to sum up the angst fantasy owners feel about so many players? They draw us in with talent so seductive and intoxicating that we stick around even after getting burned. Yet even as the logic of giving them another try wears thin, the promise of “what could be” is almost too great to resist – even when you know better.

It seems you always find yourself staring at their name on draft day and wishing you knew what to do. Bloom and I would love to intervene, but we’re too busy exorcising our own player-demons or giving it one more chance with the hope we’re not crying in our beer in December.

(Bloom) Track 1: QB Josh Freeman – My Minds Got a Mind Of Its Own  [phish]

Maybe it’s his mechanics. Maybe it’s that he was in a new system. Maybe it’s his unwillingness to rely on his legs as often as he did earlier in his career. Or, maybe Josh Freeman is just as baffled by his inconsistent play as we are. His mind prompts him to make throws that are incomprehensible. Last year, he looked like a QB1 until he cratered with eight interceptions in the all-important weeks 15 and 16. Think twice before you add Freeman this year.

(Waldman) Track 2: RB Maurice Jones-Drew –  We Had Joy, We had Fun . . .  [terry Jacks]

He was a huge reason I won my first experts’ league. Using a Studs and Duds strategy, winning Jones-Drew’s services for a mere $1 was the bargain of all bargains. Watching him duel with Chris Johnson a few years ago was one of the most fun showcases of two running backs in a game that I have ever seen. The Jaguars’ little teapot has been an RB1 for most of his seven-year career and a cornerstone for many fantasy champions. Despite averaging at least 4.7 yards per carry the past two seasons, the familiar tug to get on board the S.S. Jones-Drew is there but my feet won’t leave the dock – even at a bargain price as the 23rd pick/RB15.

But he has taken a pounding and without a proven quarterback to keep defenses from crowding the line of scrimmage and daring the Jaguars to throw, I’d rather be a year too early than a year too late. Terry Jacks says it best: “Good-bye my friend it’s hard to die when all the birds are singing in the sky . . . but the hills that we climbed were just seasons out of time.”

(Bloom) Track 3: RB Darren McFadden – Won’t Get Fooled Again [The who]

Keep your “contract year” and “zone blocking scheme was holding him back” arguments. Oakland’s offense looks like a dumpster-fire without left tackle Jared Veldheer for a good part of the season. Matt Flynn is a backup quarterback and Terrelle Pryor isn’t even a backup-quality passer. Even if McFadden had a spotless durability record, it would be tough to like him this year.

(Waldman) Track 4: RB Ryan Mathews – Cold Shot [Stevie Ray Vaughan]

Mathews isn’t just singing this song to fantasy owners; he’s belting the lyrics to a standing room only audience in his locker room. The Fresno State runner is a borderline rare talent. If you’ve truly seen Mathews at his best then you know what I mean: exploits small creases, makes adroit cuts that kill defenders’ angles, a third gear to outrun corners, and rare balance against hits from first-level defenders.  It’s one thing to lower the pads and truck a defender straight-on; it’s a completely different story when a defensive lineman with a good angle and plenty of steam gets his pads into the side of a running back’s thigh and slides off like butter on a hot skillet tilted sideways.

I saw Mathews do this enough times that I thought I was in this fantasy football relationship for the long haul. But the rare skills couched in boneheaded acts of immaturity has reached the point that I can’t make any more excuses. It doesn’t help that Danny Woodhead (DANNY WOODHEAD?!!!) is the player the Chargers are relying on as much as Mathews. It shows just how far this once-promising fantasy situation has gone down the tubes.

Mathews says his NFL career to this point as merely been “average” and while I like the attempt at honesty, the fact that he can’t bring himself to say his career has been below average to his first-round expectations tells me that he’s still in denial about not only what he has done, but he truly doesn’t realize how good he can be. If he doesn’t believe in himself, then how can I?

I still want to believe because I see glimpses every week he plays. But by game’s end, watching him is a cold shot.

(Bloom) Mathews Alternate take:  It Ain’t No Use [Stevie Wonder]

Mathews may be looking good in camp and the preseason, but it ain’t no use. I’m done – at least while he’s running behind maybe the worst offensive line in the league. The new regime doesn’t have the draft pick or emotional investment in Mathews and you shouldn’t, either. I’m not saying that Mathews won’t have some big plays and games, but he’ll also frustrate with injuries and lost games as the Chargers struggle.

Read the rest at Footballguys