Posts tagged RSP

Eddie Lacy and Why I Prefer Talent Over Situation

0 Comments read 2013 NFL Draft, Walk on the Wild Side
I prefer evaluating talent to ranking players. There's a difference. Photo by Mike Pettigano.
Eddie Lacy is an example why I prefer evaluating talent to ranking players. There’s a difference. Photo by Mike Pettigano.

Eddie Lacy was my top back in the 2013 class before the NFL Draft. After the draft, I dropped him to fourth in behind Giovani Bernard, Le’Veon Bell, and Marcus Lattimore. Why? The three factors that we learned that caused NFL teams to drop him on their draft boards:

  1. Lacy was so out of shape in pre-draft workouts that he had to cut the workouts short.
  2. Concern about Lacy’s toe injury caused the Broncos and Steelers pick another option despite their need for a lead back.
  3. Concern that Lacy’s personality – which isn’t all-football, all the time – meant he didn’t have the emotional makeup of a good football player.

When I downgraded Lacy in my post-draft publication, I only knew about the first two concerns. If I knew about the third one I would have ignored it because it’s ridiculous. More on that one later.

As a football talent evaluator, I dislike post-draft rankings. I understand their value, but I’m a talent purist at heart. I prefer to examine what a player can do; what he can’t; and project what he might be able to learn. Character, situation, and injury are factors that more often than not require an investigator, a coach, and a doctor to discuss with any level of expertise and even then there’s a lot of speculation.

Unless I was with a team and creating a real draft board, I have little use for the non-football stuff. It’s water-cooler talk.

Headlining the virtual break room was infamous camp photo of Lacy where he looked more like B.J. Raji wearing a running back jersey number and wig as a prank. I thought we were going to need to add a photography expert to the mix of the collective medical and psychological speculation about things that have little to do with his on-field performance.

As a fan and a fantasy owner, it was five minutes of compelling information to consider. I was sucked in. As an author of a publication that evaluates talent from a long-term standpoint, I was glad it went away as fast as it arrived.

These non-football factors are also why the idea of people ranking talent analysts is problematic at best. Does one judge a talent evaluator by his ranking of the player or by the commentary? I think the substance of the analysis is far more important than the number. If you think I’m a good or bad evaluator because of the accuracy of rankings that have more more dynamics than annual re-draft rankings in fantasy football, then you’re missing value of what those in the profession of football evaluation provide to readers.

Lacy is one of many examples why I think the pre-draft RSP remains as valuable as the post-draft publication. The pre-draft publication is about talent. The post-draft incorporates fit and to a lesser extent draft stock. Like it or not, a player’s draft grade often dictates his initial opportunity.

And because the NFL is a hyper-competitive environment with high turnover due to age and injury, it’s understandable why most media and fans have a “what have you done for me lately” philosophy embedded within their takes on player potential. Even if it’s often the wrong perspective to have.

The concern about Lacy’s toe injury was based on surgery prior to his 2012 season. From what I saw, it didn’t stop Lacy from tearing holes through college defenses. True, it’s a possibility that Lacy hurts the toe again and is never the same player and he may have a shorter career span than Montee Ball, but if the speculation is that Lacy only plays three years to Ball’s five I’d prefer the better player over a shorter period of time.

Even if that player burns out his body sooner, management is making that player’s position a stronger priority in the off-season.

The issue that troubles me most about these takes that emerged after the draft about Lacy. The idea that teams passed on Lacy because running back doesn’t love football and teams were concerned about his work ethic or mental toughness. I’d be shocked if even 10 percent of the true decision makers involved with passing on Lacy have ever experienced a remote amount of hardship that he has.

Try losing everything you own after a hurricane strikes your town. Do you think you’d struggle with the trauma of starting over? Moving to a new city with nothing? Living with people you didn’t know in conditions that are far from luxury? If you think eight years is a long time to still be dealing with it all then odds are likely you need to get back to me 10-15 years after you can walk into a bar and order a drink. Then we can having a meaningful conversation.

Football wouldn’t be the first thing on my mind. Nor would it make me happy in light of these events. An outlet for my frustration and anger? Oh yeah. Happiness? You’ve got to be kidding me.

Some people say you have to love football with a passion to perform at the highest level. I agree it’s the easiest way to tell that a person is going to do the hard work to succeed. It’s just not the only way. If you want to live by the probabilities of templates, formulas, and prototypes then you’ll be right more often than you’re wrong. But you’ll also miss a lot of exceptional cases that make a true difference in shaping how we look at the world.

As a talent purist, Lacy’s skill excites me, but I dreaded having to use non-football events to rank him.  Fast forward to Lacy’s performance this weekend and many of these concerns were sliding off him like Rams defenders. He looked like Marion Motley with a spin move. Whether or not he has a successful career, I’m happy that in a few weeks most of the speculation about Lacy (and many other prospects) will reach the beginning of the end on the field of play.

For analysis of skill players in this year’s draft class, download the 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio available now. Better yet, if you’re a fantasy owner the 56-page Post-Draft Add-on comes with the 2013 RSP at no additional charge and available for download within a week after the NFL Draft. Best, yet, 10 percent of every sale is donated to Darkness to Light to combat sexual abuse. You can purchase past editions of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio for just $9.95 apiece.

RSP Flashback: Cardinals WR Andre Roberts

0 Comments read 2011 NFL Draft, Players, Wide Receiver
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Roberts will also benefit from Bruce Arians moving Larry Fitzgerald around. See why he should be a worthwhile patience play for the Cardinals.

The 2010 rookie class of wide receivers was a minefield for draft analysts. The strength of the class lay in its collective athleticism. For every Dez Bryant and Demaryius Thomas who have developed into play-makers there are the likes of Arrelious Benn, Carlton Mitchell, David Gettis, and Marcus Easley – eye-catching athletes who have struggled to integrate the skills of the position into their game.  Or in Danario Alexander’s case, stay healthy.

Yet there was a contingent of receivers who had average physical dimensions for the professional game, but their skills as receivers were the most promising aspect of their collective resumes. While there’s a school of thought that you can’t teach athleticism, I’m beginning to think that truism is relied upon too much. The downside of this is these players get drafted early, they need more development than they are often capable of absorbing at this level, and teams are more patient with them to “have the light come on.”

After a decade of study, I think teams need to spend more time looking at players who already know how to turn on the switch. I call this behavior a display of Integrated Skill Sets.
And I believe there should be a more qualitative effort to study them:

  • What are they for the position?
  • What’s difficult to learn about the position at the pro level?
  • Does the player know how to incorporate his athleticism into position’s technical demands?
  • Does the process what’s happening around him well enough to optimize his athleticism and skill?
  • What behaviors can help us more  project a player’s ability to integrate the demands of the pro game?

The players in this 2010 class who demonstrated the strongest display of Integrated Skill Sets that I didn’t mention were Golden Tate, Eric Decker, Emmanuel Sanders, Riley Cooper, Blair White, and Andre Roberts.  While White had a short-lived career, he’s an important player to mention because I think the one thing that the Colts player-personnel department did a fine job of identifying was players with Integrated Skill Sets.

I don’t know if they have anything defined as such when watching players, but even their misses were players who demonstrated a good feel for the game. White wasn’t inordinately big or fast, but he knew how to get open, read the field and opponents well, and he could make plays that required a combination of technique, spatial awareness in tight quarters, and physical toughness.  If you recall White’s first touchdown was the result of jogging to the Colts huddle and telling Manning what he saw the corner cheating on previous plays.

Ironically, many football people believe that you can’t teach athleticism, but I’m beginning to wonder if you can teach smarts, precision, and awareness in football players if they don’t have it by the time they reach the NFL. At the day gig, I’m doing a story on one of the oldest and most prestigious specialty academic graduate programs of its kind that teaches a specific set of skills that has so much value to the corporate world, I’ve had numerous MBA graduates tell me that if they knew this program existed they would have pursued it instead.

The reason is that employers are practically waiting in line to hire these graduates. But ask these employers what they want to see more with this training and it’s the graduate’s ability to integrate all of the skills they’ve learned and make decisions that change the business for the better. They want the school to teach things that can’t be taught (inspired and reinforced, maybe): intelligence, curiosity, and experience.

The NFL’s job market has its parallels. It takes a certain type of talent to be a good receiver for Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, Drew Brees, or Matt Ryan. Elite physical skills can get you onto the field, but look at the players who most consistently move the chains in tough situations and the guys they’re leaning on display intelligence, curiosity, and awareness in their game. Say what you will about Randy Moss’ effort or personality, but Bill Belichick called him the smartest receiver he’s coached.

Andre Roberts is no Randy Moss when it comes to his athletic gifts, but he was my fifth-ranked receiver in 2010 and one of my favorites in this class. The 5’11”, 195-pound Roberts was on my short list of receivers most likely candidate to make an immediate impact. However, Roberts had so many uncharacteristic drops in camp that his rookie year was unfruitful.

This slow start only reinforces my view that NFL teams would be served well to look at integrated skill sets, because by the end of his second season Roberts’ quarterbacks and coaching staff believed he demonstrated enough to develop into a star in the slot. The hope is that the acquisition of Michael Floyd would eventually allow the Cardinals to use Roberts as a receiver who they can move around to take advantage of his skills.

The 2013 camp story line may be about coach Bruce Arians moving Fitzgerald around like Reggie Wayne, but think of Roberts as Arians’ new T.Y Hilton. Remember, if you move one receiver, you’re likely moving another. Hilton also benefited from getting moved around the formation. Roberts isn’t as fast as Hilton, but I compared him favorably to Greg Jennings.

Roberts is a small-school prospect with big-time game. He has great body control to make catches of errant throws, runs routes anywhere on the field, and has strong skills after the catch. He’s a versatile player and had one of the best punt returns I have seen in a couple of years. He can weave through traffic, set up blocks, and make strong cuts. What I really like his skill to defeat the jam on a consistent basis. I have seen projections from others that believe Roberts will be a slot receiver. I agree with those that say he will start his career there, but I would like to point out that Greg Jennings has nearly identical dimensions as Roberts. I think Roberts might be a better player than Jennings was at this stage of their careers. If Roberts joins a team with a veteran quarterback, he’ll be a candidate to make an immediate impact in 2010.

Roberts has lacked an established veteran for most of his career, but he continues to flash skills that I think a quarterback of Carson Palmer has the ability to fully exploit this year. Here is my 2010 report on Andre Roberts. While the jury is still out on him becoming consistent, productive starter, I think he’s a lot closer than many of his more athletically-inclined classmates and the reason is his flash of integrated skill sets.

For analysis of skill players in this year’s draft class, download the 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio available now. Better yet, if you’re a fantasy owner the 56-page Post-Draft Add-on comes with the 2013 RSP at no additional charge and available for download within a week after the NFL Draft. Best, yet, 10 percent of every sale is donated to Darkness to Light to combat sexual abuse. You can purchase past editions of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio for just $9.95 apiece.

Reads Listens Views 8/16/2013

0 Comments read Reads Listens Views

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The Rookie Scouting Portfolio blog has gained enough of a following that I’ve learned there are folks who come here and don’t realize that – oh by the way –  I also write for Footballguys.com. If you play fantasy football and you haven’t checked out our draft app, you can see more from Cory Jones at Mandatory.com.

Thanks

My summer schedule has been whack since . . . well, spring. I have a final push of Footballguys.com assignments I want to finish this weekend and next and you’ll begin to see more substantive football content about the 2014 college class, goings-on in the NFL, and perhaps more experiments with podcasts.

If you’re new to the blog, Friday is when I post links to content from around the web. I also thank you for visiting and encourage you to do yourself a favor and buy the 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio. This is a pre-draft and post-draft publication devoted to the rookies at the skill positions. Here’s information to learn more:

If you just need the basic facts, here they are: It’s the most comprehensive work you’ll find of its kind. You get over 1300 pages of material that’s well-organized and in-depth for $19.95 (past issues from 2006-2012 are $9.95). And 10 percent of each sale is donated to the organization Darkness to Light to help them fight sexual abuse.  You can download the RSP here.

Random Football Thoughts

  • I’m not concerned about Josh Gordon. He makes football look easy. He always has. It’s a quality that I remember seeing from Randy Moss. I will gladly take Gordon in fantasy drafts and wait three weeks for him to return.  
  • Broncos running back C.J. Anderson, an undrafted rookie free agent from Cal, injured his knee just as he was earning second-team reps in practice and will miss six weeks. Anderson has the ability to develop into a contributor in a starting lineup. He’s excellent at making the first defender miss, has quick feet, and finishes strong. This injury may ruin his momentum to cut into Montee Ball’s reps, but I think he makes the team and if he keeps working at his craft I wouldn’t be surprised if he clouds the Broncos’ running back picture in 2014.
  • Bears rookie lineman Kyle Long looked terrific against the Chargers. He and Jermon Bushrod are two big reasons why I continue to be bullish on Matt Forte this year.
  • About three months ago I was on the Thursday Night Audible talking about players to watch during the preseason who you won’t normally see when the regular season begins. One of the players I mentioned – over the “don’t do it” chants from Bloom and Lammey – was Falcons tight end Chase Coffman. All three of us like Coffman at Missouri but at the time the Bengals drafted him, Coffman was gangling athlete. However, last year I got to see Coffman on the field in Atlanta and he looked to have gained enough muscle that he was able to move around the field with a level of athletic grace I had not seen from him before. He looked like a different player in this respect. What was the same was his excellent hands and skill in zone coverage. Remember Coffman this year, because he has earned his share of first-team reps in the preseason and has looked solid. If Tony Gonzalez gets hurt, Coffman has the hands to contribute as a zone receiver. Fantasy owners, think Dennis Pitta in style but not the high-end production.

Listens 

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nOz4qMZLW-U&feature=share&list=PLX1Nx57UJgZklFIdjOTGR0wdc3n-c417Y]

Stevie Ray Vaughan used to sit in with Albert King as a kid and if you couldn’t tell by King’s playing, Vaughan cited King as a major influence.

Football Reads

Views

I saved this for over a week. Since then, my friend Joe Bryant posted it on his blog, but it’s such an important thing to watch that I’m hoping I catch some of you who saw it, but didn’t bother to look.  As someone whose care was rear-ended four times in one month and at least two of them were clearly due to people texting, I urge you to watch.

[youtube=http://youtu.be/_BqFkRwdFZ0]

Listens II – Tinariwen

[youtube=http://youtu.be/r0AyA6-rKf8]

You can hear the blues in this, too.

Non-Football Reads

Views II

[youtube=http://youtu.be/zuBSRC1zpHw]

I like this video because in less than five minutes, Kutcher does his best to be real about work, pop culture, and self-worth.

2013 RSP Excerpt and Sample: Seattle RB Christine Michael

0 Comments read 2014 NFL Draft, Players, Running Back
Is Michael this class' Ben Tate with more talent? Photo by SD Dirk.
Is Michael this class’ Ben Tate with more talent? Photo by SD Dirk.

I heard a TV commentator compare Michael to Ahman Green and attribute that comparison to former A&M coach Mike Sherman. The comparison is dead-on.

Michael has a strong burst, good finishing strength, nice pad level, and quick feet to make sharp cuts. I think he flashes some skill at the cutback while still having the maturity to take what his blockers give him – even when the creases are small.

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l52K5QZ2OEw?start=27&w=560&h=315]

Note the pad level and strength on this run above. There are three different angles to view it (ends at 0:46).  I love how hard he hits the crease and this combination of speed and pad level makes him scary to bring down at the second level, because he’ll bounce off hits or use his array of moves in combination to turn a 10-yard gain into a 50-yard jaunt.

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LCVqxFeWFoU?start=177&w=560&h=315]

The lateral cut Michael executes at the left hash after telling the linebacker a bedtime story that featured his stiff arm four yards earlier is a thing of beauty. Moreover, the speed to cross the opposite hash and outrun a fine angle by the defender back to score on this play is a great display of speed and stamina to turn on the afterburners. He did a fair bit of work early in the play and still had the gas to cross the field and outrun two angles for a long score. Impressive stuff.

I have no doubt that Michael has the physical skills to be a lead back in a pro offense and a terrific one at that.

Like Green, Michael generally carries the ball under the same arm on running plays regardless of his position on the field – his right. He sometimes tries too hard in the open field to make that extra cut or move to avoid down-field defenders rather than maintain a straight path and finish strong. He loses more yards with some of these decisions than he would if he forced the defender to bring him down while he was at full speed.

At the same time, I have seen Michael look great in the open field against Arkansas, Mississippi, and Auburn. he doesn’t always run with his eyes as much as he should and this reduces his effectiveness because he’s not setting up moves as much as he’s focusing on one move at a time.

A real positive about Michael’s game is his pass protection. He keeps his head up and uses his hands well enough to punch defenders. He gets good position before delivering blocks and he flashed good skill both in stand up and cut blocking. He’s also a reliable receiver on short routes, catching the ball with his hands, and he can catch targets with his back to the quarterback. He’ll have the occasional lapse of patience where he has to be more cognizant of looking the ball into his body.

Injuries have been an issue. Michael has broken a leg and torn an ACL in consecutive years. He was had lapses of discipline as a teammate.

The maturity issue was considered Micheal’s greatest stumbling block before the draft. The A&M runner put on a show at the combine with a 4.54, 40-yard dash; an incredible 4.02, 20-yard shuttle; and a somewhat mind-blowing 6.69-second, three-cone drill. All he had to do after this display was to show up to the team interviews and say that his past mistakes were nothing but youthful immaturity.

He could throw in that he’s learning how to become a better teammate and reliable adult and that he understands the NFL is an opportunity of a lifetime and he’d be a lock for the third round. Instead, Michael overslept and missed his interviews.

However, post-draft interviews with Michael depict a young man who displays far more maturity and poise than how some in the media depicted him at college. Michael says he missed the interviews because he was ill during the combine and after working out the symptoms were bad enough that he was wiped out that night and next morning.

Based on my limited information about Michael’s behavior I characterized him as a player who can run over, around, or away from just about anyone on a football field, but was having a lot of trouble winning the internal battle. I’m not so sure the losers in this evaluation of Michael’s character weren’t those of us who didn’t know anything more than what the media reported. At the same time, I’m not completely convinced his past behavior was all something the media blew out of proportion. If he can regain his pre-injury form and continue to show evidence of mature (enough) behavior he can be the best back in this class.

My sample play-by-play reports on Christine Michael. 

Fantasy draft coming up? Download the 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio available now. Better yet, if you’re a fantasy owner the 56-page Post-Draft Add-on comes with the 2013 RSP at no additional charge and available for download within a week after the NFL Draft. Best, yet, 10 percent of every sale is donated to Darkness to Light to combat sexual abuse. You can purchase past editions of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio for just $9.95 apiece.

RSP Film Room Podcast: Rajion Neal – Minimizing Losses

0 Comments read 2014 NFL Draft, Players, Running Back
Neal is an underrated running back prospect in this 2014 class. Photo by Greece Trip Admin
Neal is an underrated running back prospect in this 2014 class. Photo by Greece Trip Admin

Even when Justin Hunter and Cordarrelle Patterson were turning SEC fields into track meets, Tennessee runner Rajion Neal was known as the fastest player on the team. The 211-pound running back displays elements of skill and maturity that make him a player worth watching as the 2014 NFL Draft season gets underway. Neal is the subject of the first-ever RSP Film Room Podcast. These shows will be quick takes of no more than 10 minutes. This one is a little over 6:30 in run time.

Example 1 – (Mute the volume of video to follow along with audio. )

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1P3FFtXpeWo?start=1543w=420&h=315]

Example 2 – (Mute the volume of video to follow along with audio. )

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1P3FFtXpeWo?start=2671w=420&h=315]

Fantasy draft coming up? Download the 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio available now. Better yet, if you’re a fantasy owner the 56-page Post-Draft Add-on comes with the 2013 RSP at no additional charge and available for download within a week after the NFL Draft. Best, yet, 10 percent of every sale is donated to Darkness to Light to combat sexual abuse. You can purchase past editions of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio for just $9.95 apiece.

Reads Listens Views 8/9/2013

0 Comments read Reads Listens Views
If you think of me when you see these three players - among others - you don't need me to say any more. If you don't, perhaps its time to starting downloading the RSP publication every April 1.
If you think of me when you see these three players – among others – you don’t need me to say any more. If you don’t, perhaps its time to starting downloading the RSP publication every April 1.

If you’re new to the Rookie Scouting Portfolio Blog, Friday posts are titled “Reads Listens Views” and in addition today’s commentary on 10 third and fourth-year players I’m monitoring in training camp, I’m featuring links to content from colleagues, non-football stories, photos, videos, lectures, and music that interest me. You may not like everything you see here, but you will like at least one thing. It’s also my opportunity to thank you for visiting and convince you to download the Rookie Scouting Portfolio publication.

Listens – RIP George Duke (Pianist/Composer/Producer)

[youtube=http://youtu.be/CT2ZBoWtNes]

Thanks

This thing we got going here is a mutual deal. Thank you for following my blog, my tweets, reading my work at Footballguys and Football Outsiders, and buying the Rookie Scouting Portfolio. In return I do my best to give you stuff to read that helps you become a more informed football fan, makes you see something with a new perspective, or at least makes you laugh. If you haven’t bought the Rookie Scouting Portfolio before you need to know that according to my readers, I’m the rare bird who is giving you something that far exceeds its cost to you.

The depth of what I write about any subject here is the tip of the iceberg for the two publications (pre-draft and post-draft) that you get for just $19.95:

  • Over 1300 pages of 179 skill position prospects.
  • Play-by-play notes of each game I study.
  • Position rankings.
  • Rankings by individual skill sets at each position.
  • Assessment of skills that are easy/difficult to learn.
  • Fantasy landscape analysis for each position.
  • Overall rankings with tiers and draft value metrics post-draft.
  • Overrated, Underrated, and Projects.
  • Defined criteria shown for all my scouting reports.

This report is based on my perception of talent, potential fit, long-term development first and then draft stock as a slight factor due to opportunities it affords/prevents as opposed to the other way around. The book outlines my process so you can get better at studying these positions regardless of the accuracy of my assessments on players.

At the same time, I’m still here after 8 years of writing this publication and asked to write for others because my process has helped me have strong takes on players who were often seen as exceptions to the rule like Maurice Jones-Drew, Ahmad Bradshaw, Russell Wilson, Austin Collie, Dennis Pitta, and Ray Rice while also cautioning people about the extreme love for the likes of a Matt Leinart, Robert Meachem, Darren McFadden, and Craig Davis. I have my misses – Demaryius Thomas, John Beck, Bruce Gradkowski, and Will Yeatman are examples – but my process helps me learn. Even when my ranking isn’t sky-high on an unknown-turned-starter like Alfred Morris – my assessment of that player’s skills give you an idea of what he can do if given a shot.

Not many had Kenbrell Thompkins rated as high as the 15th receiver and were writing about him in February. Many scoffed at the idea that Russell Wilson compared favorably to Drew Brees, but I was showing how that could be the case before the 2012 NFL Draft.

I know it doesn’t seem like it, but I don’t like self-promotion. However, I have to do it. Fortunately what I do like telling you is that 10 percent of each RSP purchase is donated to Darkness to Light, a charitable organization devoted to sexual abuse prevention training. Downloading the Rookie Scouting Portfolio is a win-win-win.

Friday Commentary: 10 Third/Fourth-Year Players I’m Monitoring In Training Camp

These players are in no particular order, but here’s why I’m interested in monitoring their progress – and so should you.

Spann JetsII
Spann has impressed thus far. How he does in preseason games could make a huge difference with his NFL future.

Running Back Chad Spann, Jets: Spann is a friend of this blog since I took a shine to his game when he led college football in touchdowns as a senior at Northern Illinois (Cam Newton was No.2). I’m personally a fan of Spann now that I’ve gotten to know him a little bit, but I’ve been persistent about talking about him for the past three years because first and foremost I believe he has the talent to contribute in and NFL lineup. He was a top-five runner on my pre-draft board in 2011 because he made strong decisions, demonstrated good balance, and his burst, and skill after contact all were stylistic reminders of backs like Ray Rice and Ahmad Bradshaw.

Spann is one of many players who has had rough luck early on because his opportunities to contribute were small and a late preseason injury with the Colts, a revolving door at the Bucs’ organization, and a new coordinator in Pittsburgh all foiled the runner’s chance to parlay his good practice/preseason play into a real opportunity. But Spann has continued working and is making good with the Jets as he heads into the first week of the preseason. With Chris Ivory’s health history, Mike Goodson’s troubles, and Bilal Powell the only effective veteran option practicing, Spann’s pass protection, receiving skill, and burst has caught the team’s eye.

While I’m fine with admitting I missed on a player like Knowhson Moreno, if you believe in someone’s skill, you continue to tout them even if they aren’t getting the chance to prove it. Bengals running back Cedric Peerman is one of those players where I’ve seen nothing to disprove my believe that he can be a starter in the NFL. The fact that Jay Gruden told reporters last year that “we didn’t know what we had” in Peerman as a running back after three years he was on the roster, only validates my notion that the Bengals have pegged him as a special teams guy and don’t care to see anything more unless forced to do so. Spann is also one of these players I’ll have to see something different from what I studied to believe he can’t produce as a pro.

Running Back Bilal Powell, Jets: Powell is another interesting case for me. I also had Powell ranked higher than most in the 2011 NFL Draft. While he’s made incremental improvement each year, he failed to make an instant impact. Whether this is because he’s not as talented a runner as I initially thought or the Jets line play and distribution of carries has prevented Powell from truly demonstrating his potential remains to be seen. With Ivory, Goodson, and McKnight missing in action, we’re going to get a better look in the preseason.

Powell is more physical than his size indicates and he’s a volume runner who sets up defenders over the course of several runs. This is why I think the carry distribution under Tony Sparano didn’t maximize Powell’s potential. The Jets are the preseason favorite to be in the Jadeveon Clowney Sweepstakes (the first pick of the 2013 NFL Draft), which has a lot of us wondering just how effective the offense can be for any skill talent. Still, we’ve seen New York improve its run game last year despite tough circumstances so Powell and Spann or worth monitoring.

Is this the year McCluster gets a shot to maximize his skill set? Photo by Tennessee Journalist Wade Rackley.
Is this the year McCluster gets a shot to maximize his skill set? Photo by Tennessee Journalist Wade Rackley.

Offensive Weapons Dexter McCluster, Chiefs and James Casey, Eagles: I thought McCluster would be Tavon Austin before Austin’s arrival in the NFL the way I thought James Casey would be Aaron Hernandez before Hernandez’s arrival in the NFL. In fact, I think McCluster was a far more natural running back than Austin and illustrated it with greater frequency in a less diverse offensive scheme than Austin. However, McCluster went to a Chiefs’ offense where there appeared to be a disconnect between those who drafted the Ole Miss star and how to maximize his talent.

The same could be said of Casey, who once riddled the Saints (see link above) as a receiver, but earned very few opportunities of this magnitude since. Both players have also dealt with injuries and position changes (and flip-flops). This year they seem to be in organizations with coaches and offenses that will maximize their versatility. I’m excited to see how this plays out this month because McCluster has a shot to be a terrific slot option opposite the talents of Travis Kelce at tight end and Casey should have a lot of room underneath and also win mismatches with linebackers on deeper routes when given the green light in Chip Kelley’s offense. Both could earn enough receptions this year (50+) to be among the top 2-3 options in their respective offenses.

Wide Receiver Torrey Smith, Ravens: I love Smith’s speed and skill at winning the ball on deep routes in tight coverage. What remains to be seen is if he can take his game to the level of another speedy receiver with the same last name: Jimmy Smith. Although the Jaguars’ legend has 10 pounds on the Ravens third-year wide out, both players shared similarities in their games early in their careers.

The Ravens’ Smith needs to prove he can not only produce at a high level as the primary weapon, but with out Anquan Boldin and Dennis Pitta making life easier for him. This may mean more intermediate routes in the middle of the field than what I’ve seen in the past. If he can do it, the Ravens will have the offense to stay in games against quality opponents.

Now he knows how to throw the football - or at least knows about the technique.
Now he knows how to throw the football – or at least knows about the technique.

Quarterback Terrelle Pryor, Raiders: When Pryor first entered the NFL, I cautioned fans to remove the beer goggles. Pryor admitted this summer that he didn’t know how to throw the ball when he arrived in Oakland and camp reports indicate he has improved his mechanics. One thing he can do is run.

If Matt Flynn fails to hold this offense together, the Raiders might decide a heavier dose of read-option featuring Pryor and Darren McFadden is a worthwhile stop-gap. I’m curious to see just how much Pryor has improved. The fact that Oakland has red zone packages for him is a positive sign – even if it’s not a glowing endorsement.

Wide Receiver Vincent Brown, Chargers: Not much to say about him that I haven’t here. I think he could be the most underrated producer heading into the 2013 season due to talent, situation, and injury to Danario Alexander. Think Reggie Wayne production from 2012.

Running Backs Joique Bell and Mikel Leshoure, Lions: Leshoure says his burst is back after a hamstring injury that hindered him last year since Week 3. Bell has done enough with his opportunities for Jim Schwartz to say this spring that the former UDFA has forced his way onto the field with his production and work ethic.

Leshoure and Bell are the classic example of the safe, big-school athlete with all the measurements that personnel executives can tick on their balance sheets before issuing a sizable initial investment and a small-school player with dime-a-dozen athleticism in t-shirt and shorts, but notable skill when the pads come on.

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Scouts have a saying about college athletes that I’ll paraphrase: The number of stars next to a recruit’s rating can be equated to the number of garages he had on his house. The more garages, the more entitled, the more likely he succumbs to the scent of his press clippings and underwhelms. Likewise, the fewer the garages, the harder the recruit works for everything he wants.

It’s a generalization that sometimes fits college players. I don’t think it fits as well in the pros, but I have to believe there is some element of that at play with individual cases. Was Leshoure one of those five-garage players now looking up at a one-garage guy in Bell? We may find out, because I fear Leshoure might be looking for a new team by 2014 if he does flash 2011 expectations in 2013. Follow?

Jake Locker finally makes an appearance on an RSP Writers Project squad. Zach Bahner values Locker for his versatility, a characteristic that Bahner aims to cultivate with the rest of his team. Photo by NeonTommy.
Jake Locker is the lynch pin to the success or failure of this Titans regime Photo by NeonTommy.

Quarterback Jake Locker, Titans: The weaponry at wide receiver is promising, but every one of these talents has a question mark. Justin Hunter could be the most talented receiver in the draft, but even the camp reports are focused on “toughening him up,” and that’s not a good sign for a player with a history of sloppy habits. Kenny Britt appears to be maturing and preparing with the fervor of a professional for a change. It’s the first year I’m optimistic about him, but his quarterback is another story.

Locker has always been a reckless player. You love that at key moments, but only when he gets off the ground and trots back to the huddle unscathed. Combine this issue with his accuracy and there’s enough concern that he’ll never take the steps to become a productive NFL starter. This will be a pivotal year for the coaching staff and I think the future of this organization hangs in the balance with Locker’s performance.

Football Reads

Steve Smith is so good, you don't even need to qualify with "pound-for-pound" Photo by PDA Photo
Steve Smith is so good you don’t even need to qualify with “pound-for-pound.” Photo by PDA Photo

Views: Great White Shark Even Tries to Flush Afterwards

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Listens:

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Non-Football Reads

Views

Bill Moyers’ Series: Distracted From Democracy: I haven’t seen it yet, but looking forward to taking the time to watch.

Second-Year Players I’m Monitoring in August

0 Comments read Matt Waldman
Stuart is willing to give LaMichael James a shot to earn the starting job with his RSP Writers team. Photo by Neon Tommy.
I loved watching James at Oregon and he’s worth monitoring as a second-year player with the 49ers. See who else I’m watching closely for a variety of reasons. Photo by Neon Tommy.

What have you done for me lately? It’s an underlying mantra of performance-based industry. Of course there is the concept of earning equity on past performance. Peyton Manning built enough equity in his career that a career-threatening neck injury didn’t prevent at least three teams to engage in a high-stakes bidding war for his services.

Draft picks often earn a little equity because NFL teams are paying them a salary that influences these organizations to show a little patience. Still, it’s a small increment of time. Teams expect second-year players to make a significant improvement with their play or Year Three is a “get good or get going” scenario.

Earlier this week I wrote about 10 rookie offensive players and players that I’m monitoring during the preseason. This post is a series of short profiles of 10 offensive players entering Year Two who I’ll be monitoring with interest.

Tight End/Fullback Evan Rodriguez, Dolphins: Rodriguez has the skills to become a productive H-Back in the NFL. He’s a physical player with good skills after the catch and the speed to threaten the seam. The Bears drafted the Temple product last year and 14 months later the team waived its fourth-round pick after two arrests (DUI and disorderly conduct) during the off season. Rodriguez has a golden opportunity to earn a spot on the depth chart and learn from Dustin Keller, a receiver with similar dimensions who has more polish and professionalism, but lacks Rodriguez’s rough and tumble style. If the second-year prospect figures out that Miami is a chance for a career rebirth and not a grave yard disguised as a party, he could give the Dolphins enormous flexibility as a player who can move around the offensive formation and help Ryan Tannehill dictate the defensive scheme before the snap. I’m monitoring Rodriguez to see if he can mature and commit himself to being a professional.  If so, he has the football acumen to develop into a player like Chris Cooley, who was an H-Back earning 50-70 catches 700-plus-yards, and 6-8 touchdowns between 2005-2007.

Wide Receiver Rod Streater, Raiders: The second of three skill players who were rookies from Temple last year (Bernard Pierce was the third), Streater surprised NFL fans in 2012 when the undrafted free agent walked into Raiders’ camp and earned a significant role in the Oakland offense, gaining nearly 600 yards and averaging 15 yards per catch. I liked Streater’s speed, skill to set up breaks, and use of his hands against press.  Even after last year’s success I still have questions about Streater’s ability to make plays in tight coverage and against physical play. I thought he needed to get stronger physically. So far, reports from Raiders’ camp indicate that Streater is the most consistent option on the field. While I’m not making a physical comparison, I used to hear the same praise for Todd Pinkston until he hit the field. The Raiders have a receiver in Streater with true upside as an all-around threat, even if he never elevates his game to stardom. My checklist report on Rod Streater with play-by-play notes from a senior-year contest against Ohio.

Running Back Lamichael James, 49ers: San Francisco’s backfield is not as crowded as it appears. As talented and dedicated as he is, Marcus Lattimore is a hope and a dream for next year that may never come to fruition. Kendall Hunter looks fast . . . on the sideline rehabbing an Achilles’ tear. While Hunter is expected back before the season It leaves two healthy backs of note: Frank Gore and Lamichael James. Gore is what Achilles’ would have looked like on a football field post-Trojan Horse Incident (and survived) if his mamma had held him by the backs of his knees while dipping him into the River Styx as a baby. But Gore’s journey to the Elysian Fields of pro football is drawing near and there must be a successor. This year, that successor-in-training could be James, who has bulked up to 205 pounds and maintained his lightning-quick burst and agility. Gore has also noted that James’ improvement as a pass protector is “night and day” better. That’s the key. James has the talent to be this decade’s Brian Westbrook in Pistol formation where he can make a defense pay huge if they misread who is getting the ball. There’s a good chance James may never be a bell-cow back, but give him 120-150 touches and 40-60 receptions and he’ll be a dangerous weapon.

Wide receiver depth for the Texans could be the difference between a deep playoff run and another one-and-done. Photo of Keshawn Martin by Matt Radickal.
Wide receiver depth for the Texans could be the difference between a deep playoff run and another one-and-done. Photo of Keshawn Martin by Matt Radickal.

Wide Receiver Keshawn Martin, Texans: Andre Johnson and DeAndre Hopkins are the receivers of note, but with Jacoby Jones and Kevin Walter leaving town in recent years, I’m curious if Martin can develop fast enough to provide the Texans quality plays not only as a slot receiver, but as depth on the perimeter. Sure Lestar Jean might own that role in name, but I like Martin’s versatility. If Johnson or Hopkins succumb to injury, the Texans will need a second play-maker to be more than a one-and-done playoff team.

Running Back Michael Smith, Buccaneers: The addition of Mike James, Brian Leonard and Peyton Hillis make it appear that the Buccaneers may have Smith as the No.2 runner on its depth chart, but they don’t trust him to have a starter workload with near the volume of Doug Martin. I don’t blame them. However, I do believe he is by far the most talented runner on the roster after Martin and close observers of the Buccaneers happenings have a quiet, but collective man-crush on the explosive, second-year runner from Utah State. I often thought Smith and Colts rookie Kerwynn Williams were smarter runners between the tackles than the team’s big back Robert Turbin.

Wide Receiver LaVon Brazill, Colts: Brazill flashed skill that earned him a spot behind Reggie Wayne last year and he made a few big plays in a cameo role. If you’ve been reading this blog for at least a year then you know I loved his skills at Ohio. A substance abuse violation has left Brazill’s roster spot in jeopardy this summer and by all accounts he’s had a mistake-prone camp. The one thing I did like is that Brazill admitted that he has to eliminate marijuana from his life if he wants a shot at earning a living in the NFL. He stated the obvious rather than danced around the issue. With Darrius Heyward-Bey dealing with a sprained knee, Brazill still has a shot to keep his roster spot despite good work from Andrew Luck’s former Stanford roommate Griff Whalen. On the basis of talent, Whalen is a career reserve; Brazill is a potential starter, but professionalism and consistency matter.

Running Back Chris Polk, Eagles: Polk should have been a no worse than a fourth-round pick based on his talent (and that’s a very conservative estimate), but he went undrafted. I can only speculate through the lens of my own observations why:

  • His conditioning looked like that of a running back from another era. He had a bit of a spare tire at the Senior Bowl.
  • He appeared stiff as an athlete in Mobile.
  • Like Zach Sudfeld this year, Polk’s lengthy injury dossier was a turnoff.

Polk was signed after the Eagles drafted Bryce Brown – a back with immense talent, but had made numerous questionable decisions, including quitting the Kansas State team. But Polk was still good enough to make the Eagles roster last year and this year he and Brown made Dion Lewis expendable. While Brown is a phenomenal talent capable of All-Pro production, Polk isn’t far behind – especially now that he’s in shape. Chip Kelly knows this after facing the University of Washington running back in conference play. Polk is an even better receiver than Brown and he’s a tough, patient runner who breaks tackles. I’m monitoring Polk because I think he’ll push Bryce Brown if Brown continues to bounce runs to the corner store and carry the ball like it’s a dirty diaper.

Wide Receiver Marvin Jones, Bengals: You’re surprised, he’s listed I know. I never mention him. You shouldn’t be surprised that he’s earning more love than Mohammed Sanu from observers at Bengals’ practice. Jones runs better routes, has a better vertical game, and he’s tougher in tight coverage. Not that it will matter greatly, because Marvin Lewis isn’t big on depth charts and Sanu will see plenty of time – especially in the red zone where he thrives. However, it will matter greatly if A.J. Green gets hurt and I believe if this happens Jones can provide the type of production we used to see from Donald Driver in Green Bay.

I've never left the Hillman bandwagon. Just lounging in the backseat enjoying my popcorn. Photo by West Point U.S. Military Academy.
I’ve never left the Hillman bandwagon. Just lounging in the backseat enjoying my popcorn. Photo by West Point U.S. Military Academy.

Running Back Ronnie Hillman, Broncos: I swear there are times I wake in the morning on my office couch after a late night of writing and have a flashback that Cecil Lammey sneaked into my office and chanted “Hillman” in my ear non-stop for 15 minutes. Since I’m not afraid of running backs underwhelming as rookies or being labeled too light or too small, Hillman is near the top of my list as a player worth monitoring during the preseason. The fact he wasn’t much of a blocker didn’t surprised me last year; he still ran like the player I saw at San Diego State. It seems like many people are waiting for Montee Ball to become the starter at some point this season. If Hillman stays healthy, I think those folks might need a comfortable recliner – it even comes in Orange Crush.

Wide Receiver Brian Quick, Rams: I’ve been skeptical of Quick’s prospects and I remain so. Now that the Rams are playing a wide-open offense, can Quick fit in? Can he run routes? Has he improved enough to contribute? Austin Pettis lacks Quick’s athletic upside (which I think has been overstated since fall of 2012), but he understands the game and has great mitts. I’m looking forward to hearing more about Quick’s progress to see if there is any glimmer of hope.

Fantasy draft coming up? Download the 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio available now. Better yet, if you’re a fantasy owner the 56-page Post-Draft Add-on comes with the 2013 RSP at no additional charge and available for download within a week after the NFL Draft. Best, yet, 10 percent of every sale is donated to Darkness to Light to combat sexual abuse. You can purchase past editions of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio for just $9.95 apiece.

10 Offensive Rookies I’m Monitoring In August

0 Comments read Matt Waldman

The past two weeks may not seem like any indication to the contrary, but I do realize there are more rookies in NFL camps than Kenbrell Thompkins. Here is a list of 10 offensive rookies I’m monitoring in training camp.  The criteria isn’t based on immediate impact or talent. These are the guys that intrigue me the most for a variety of reasons.

Rose Bowl MVP Stepfan Taylor isn't fancy, but he's a smart-tough player. (photo by Han Shot First)>
Rose Bowl MVP Stepfan Taylor isn’t fancy, but he’s a smart-tough player. (photo by Han Shot First)>

RB Stepfan Taylor, Cardinals: The former Stanford Cardinals runner is a great fit for the Bruce Arians offense. Much quicker than fast, Taylor’s low center of gravity and shifty style for a power runner makes him the best style of runner for this offense than any player currently on the Arizona depth chart – including Rashard Mendenhall and Ryan Williams. These two veterans are more talented, but I think Taylor has the potential to grow into a more versatile option and he runs with his eyes a little better than the former Steeler. Williams can’t stay healthy to save his life right now – and I think he is playing for his career life this year. Some love Andre Ellington, but I don’t see a future C.J. Spiller. That said, he’s had some good moments in camp thus far and he’s further down my list until I see some moments in preseason.  My pre-draft take on Taylor. 

TE Zach Sudfeld, Patriots: In the 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio I said, “He reminds me a bit of Jermichael Finley [in style], but a better blocker. If he can add more weight and stay this agile, he could become a quality starter.” He’s a versatile player who I think has skill sets that are a blend of what the Patriots asked Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez to do. The 6-7, 255-pound Sudfeld had enough injuries to fatten a medical file at a doctor’s office, but he stayed healthy his senior year in Chris Ault’s Pistol offense. In fact, he functioned as the lead blocker much the way Chris Brown described it at Grantland. Not that Tom Brady will run the Pistol, but if Tim Tebow does in a handful of red zone situations, don’t be surprised if Sudfeld is leading the way. However, what intrigues me about Sudfeld is how fluid he is for his size. He’s not fast for a tight end, but his quickness and skill around the ball is a good skill set for a team in desperate need of solid tight end play to begin the season. Here is my RSP game report and play-by-play notes on Zach Sudfeld last December in the New Mexico Bowl versus Arizona.

Rogers has the kind of upside to render draft status useless. Photo by Wade Rackley.
Rogers has the kind of upside to render draft status useless. Photo by Wade Rackley.

WR Da’Rick Rogers, Bills: Rogers was on thin ice in May after making a reception in practice and showboating. Since that time, Rogers has been quieter with his words, but still making good plays in practice that should earn him a spot with the team. A tough, physical player capable of winning the ball in tight coverage, Rogers has the talent to replace Steve Johnson as the primary option in the Bills offense by 2015 because he also displays quickness and agility to generate big plays in the open field. With Robert Woods looking like a 10-year veteran in training camp, Rogers could have some big moments when he finally sees a starting lineup and teams can’t double-cover him.

RB Spencer Ware, Seahawks: I’m still just as intrigued with Ware, who is competing for a spot as a fullback/running back tweener, as I was before the NFL Draft. Reports from camp are good enough that some observers have had to check their roster lists to make sure the back they saw breaking quality runs wasn’t Christine Michael. Ware has looked good as a receiver and pass protector and because of his smarts between the tackles, I wouldn’t be at all surprised if by 2015 he earns more time as a running back than people expected when the team announced he’d be a fullback. Again, I thought Ware was the toughest runner at the college level I saw last year and a severely underrated runner. He’s a perfect fit for the Seahawks’ system.

TE Chris Gragg, Bills: An athletic move-tight end with sticky hands as both a receiver and blocker, Gragg is making good in practices. I think he needs to improve his technique as a blocker – especially his footwork. I’m keen to see how the Bills under Doug Marrone will use tight ends like Scott Chandler or Gragg in its offense. With Johnson getting moved around at receiver, Woods looking like a starter, Rogers displaying promise, and even Marqise Goodwin holding his own to earn a roster spot, is there room for a productive tight end in this offense? I think so. Gragg won’t earn it this year, but it’s why I still want to monitor his development.

TE Dion Sims, Dolphins:  Gragg is piquing my interest because of Doug Marrone’s praise of the tight end before the pads came on. However, Gragg has always been a fine athlete so shining in shorts wasn’t a surprise. While Gragg is earning first-team reps with the Bills due to injuries ahead of him on the depth chart, Sims has earned his second-team looks and first-team reps in two-tight end sets with his competition healthy. Sims isn’t Antonio Gates, but he has the size and fluid athleticism to become a starting tight end in the NFL. I wouldn’t be surprised if he produces along the same lines as Brandon Pettigrew in Detroit by 2015. Dustin Keller isn’t a big guy and in the past he’s struggled to maintain is playing weight, so keep an eye on Sims this year because Keller’s season-long availability can be an issue.

WR Russell Shepard, Eagles: I’ve shared this story a number of times this spring and summer, but for about 15 minutes during a Senior Bowl practice, Shephard looked like a top wide receiver prospect. He was smooth, technically sound, quick, and excellent at snatching the ball. Then, I think fatigue set it and he got sloppy. Not a big player at the position, but he seems to handle physical play reasonably well. With Jeremy Maclin out for the year, Riley Cooper having a dark side of America moment, and the rest of the wide receiver depth chart up for grabs, Shepard continues to play well enough to be in the mix for playing time. If DeSean Jackson gets hurt, this passing game could be a disaster, but Shepard and Damaris Johnson could earn some of the sloppy seconds.

Chris Thompson and Lamichael James have a fair bit in common on the field. Photo by .PDA Photo.
Chris Thompson and Lamichael James have a fair bit in common on the field. Photo by .PDA Photo.

RB Chris Thompson, Redskins: Mike Shanahan believes Thompson had first-round ability. Based on what I saw, Thompson was a dynamic runner with great conceptual understanding of setting up blocks and bursting through holes. He showed enough promise catching the football that I wondered if he wouldn’t be a bad candidate as a future slot receiver. Thompson’s recovery from ACL surgery has put some stress on his quadriceps and he’s not practicing right now. If he can return soon and display his skills, I think he could provide a similar element to the Redskins running game that we might just see from the 49ers Lamichael James.

WR Marquess Wilson, Bears: I’m a fan of his skills. If he can remain consistent and mature, he could be a steal for Marc Trestman and the Bears. With Earl Bennett suffering another concussion and Wilson making some nice catches in Bears’ camp, he could solidify a roster spot. One of the youngest players entering the NFL this year, I wouldn’t be shocked if the former Washington State star and Alshon Jeffery are the future starters – and a productive duo – by 2015. The reason I say this is that Trestman has already said that Wilson needs to get stronger before he becomes a serious NFL contributor. While this statement could be taken as Wilson is on his way out the door, I think it’s more of long-term assessment for a player they’re treating like a third or fourth-round pick they’ll be keeping for at least a year or two.

WR Cordarrelle Patterson, Vikings: He may not show it this year, but long-term I think Patterson is the third-best rookie prospect for dynasty leagues in 2013. I also believe the pre-draft concerns about his intelligence are about as valid as what we learned in hindsight about rumors that Warren Sapp failed 7 drug tests at the University of Miami and smoked crack. Patterson is the most gifted athlete with the ball in his hands of this draft class. I’ve seen tape of some of the Vikings practices and I think there’s no reason to doubt his ability to become a star. The only receiver in the same conversation as Patterson with the ball in his hands is Dez Bryant. I don’t know if Patterson can become as good of a receiver as the road Bryant is traveling, but  only the most serious NFL nerds may see a major difference.

Fantasy draft coming up? Download the 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio available now. Better yet, if you’re a fantasy owner the 56-page Post-Draft Add-on comes with the 2013 RSP at no additional charge and available for download within a week after the NFL Draft. Best, yet, 10 percent of every sale is donated to Darkness to Light to combat sexual abuse. You can purchase past editions of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio for just $9.95 apiece.

Reads Listens Views 8/2/2013

0 Comments read Reads Listens Views
It's already difficult enough for the NFL to pick a prized catch from the multitudes. Even so, it needs to keep getting better. See below. Photo from National Geographic.
It’s already difficult enough for the NFL to pick a prized catch from the multitudes. Even so, it needs to keep getting better. See below. Photo from National Geographic.

Views

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Nica’s Dream – great tune performed by an excellent guitarist.

Football Read & Commentary

Thompkins might be an example of how most NFL teams weren't thorough enough with character evaluation. Photo by expatsfootball.com
Thompkins might be an example of how most NFL teams weren’t thorough enough with character evaluation. Photo by expatsfootball.com

Kenbrell Thompkins Rescues Himself From Woes – I think most of you get it: I’m rooting for Thompkins because I liked what I saw from him on the field. Another reason is what I read in Michael McKnight’s Sports Illustrated piece on Thompkins well before the Patriots signed him.  The Boston Herald delves a little deeper into Thompkins’ story now that the UDFA wide out has impressed just about everyone who has attended a training camp practice. I’ve written about the public and private scrutiny of character  and the gulf that young players often have to traverse to transition from college star to productive professional.

I’m linking to Thompkins’ camp reports so much this preseason, because I think it’s important to celebrate people who turn their lives around and make good.  Regardless of whether he becomes a productive player, Thompkins is proof positive that people can grow past the mistakes of their youth. If it is true that NFL teams didn’t sign him due to his seven arrests in high school then it’s also an indication that there’s significant flaws in the evaluation process – especially when it comes to assessing character.

Read the two stories above and you’ll understand that this young man hasn’t been arrested in eight years. He’s been on a zero-tolerance program with Cincinnati’s Butch Jones. He worked his tail off in Torrance, California to learn the receiver position. He graduated with a degree in criminal justice.

If a team didn’t draft him due to seven arrests before adulthood then I have to believe that they aren’t examining players with enough depth or perspective. They didn’t consider when he was arrested and his law-abiding behavior since. If they interviewed any of the coaches, teammates, or family members of Thompkins, they either didn’t trust what they heard or took a way too cautious approach. I believe they were covering their asses.

It’s easy to jump through hoops and say you’re thorough, but if you’re not truly analyzing the information, what is all that time, money, and effort worth? That’s the blow-back of a public relations-conscious society: We spend more time focused on covering ourselves to avoid looking bad than actually spending the time to make a good decision. Saying you’re being thorough so you’re not scrutinized and being thorough so you can face it with confidence are two different things.

At the same time, Thompkins’ 78 catches, 1077 yards, and 4 touchdowns in 2 years isn’t fantastic college production so there could have been a good argument made that teams expected to be able to wait until the end of the draft to sign the receiver. However, the fact that Butch Jones had use his connections to sell the Patriots on Thompkins is a telling sign that the NFL saw “seven arrests” and didn’t bother to look hard enough.

There’s lots of talk from former scouts that NFL teams spend as much or more money on private investigators and delving into character than studying on-field performance. If that’s true, Thompkins is a developing into a compelling case why the quality of the legwork may need further review.

Remember great players are exceptions to the role. They are unconventional. If you’re only willing to consider some template version of what’s good to cover your hind parts then you’ll never spot the exceptional.

Views

Speaking of exceptional. This "MJD-like dude" (according to Rex Ryan) is impressing with his speed and pass protection in Jets training camp.
Speaking of exceptional. This “MJD-like dude” (according to Rex Ryan) is impressing with his speed and pass protection in Jets training camp. Keep up the good work and Manish Mehta will remember your first name.

Views

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Now this is how you do “Happy Birthday”

Non-Football Reads

Views – Bob Burnquist (Thanks to Sigmund Bloom)

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This is a well-executed creative life. Inspiring stuff to see a man build this environment to continue growing in his field. I understand the desire.

Views – Chain of Fools

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Kind of looks like “Boogie Woogie Man” Jimmy Valiant, don’t you think?

A 261-page online publication that provides 1029 pages of play-by-play notes from my evaluation database and 10 percent of your purchase is donated to fight sexual abuse.
A 261-page online publication that provides 1029 pages of play-by-play notes from my evaluation database and 10 percent of your purchase is donated to fight sexual abuse.

Thank You

Generally, I post this in the beginning. If you’re new to the Rookie Scouting Portfolio blog then you may wonder why I’m posting non-football content today. Every Friday I like to change things up a bit to share what I found compelling during the week. Some of the stories are difficult reads and the music may not be your taste, but that’s just the luck of the draw. What I hope you’ll find worthwhile is this blog when I’m writing about football.

Based on the response thus far, you deserve a lot of thanks for helping me grow this outlet since its inception in 2011. That goes double for those of you who have taken the plunge and purchase the Rookie Scouting Portfolio publication. Now in its eighth year, the RSP is the most comprehensive – and perhaps meticulous – study of rookie skill players available.

For $19.95 you get both a pre-draft publication that includes rankings, game report cards, and play-by-play analysis for each player and a post-draft publication that updates rankings into a tiered cheat sheet and provides draft value data, and analysis on each player’s fit with his new team.  If you’re a fantasy football owner this publication will supply you with the information and perspective you’ll need to pull the trigger (or refrain) in re-draft and dynasty leagues.

I don’t have a mass audience like the big boys, but you should know that my readers are repeat customers who often have a “slap their forehead moment” once they make the decision to purchase the RSP because it’s worth more than they pay for it. The first-time buyers tell me so.

This is a career for me every year I try to make it better than the last in terms of quality of content, transparency of analysis, and improvement of my evaluation process.  Because I spend so much time creating this information, I don’t get to make the time I’d like to give back to the community in the way I was once accustomed in my youth. So it dawned on me in 2012 to donate 10 percent of every sale to a cause I believe in: Darkness to Light. This organization trains individuals and community organizations to recognize and prevent sexual abuse in communities. As football fans, I think we know first hand how even smart, accomplished people can do a poor job of handling the issue of sexual abuse.

Get the RSP and make this a win (you) – win (me) – win (giving back to the community) scenario and download the 2013 RSP now. Past issues (2006-2012) are available for $9.95.

How I’d Use Tim Tebow In New England

0 Comments read Matt Waldman
I haven't written much about Tebow, but here's an instance where I'd love to see him used in New England. Photo by Wade Rackley.
I haven’t written much about Tebow, but here’s an instance below where I’d love to see him used in New England. Photo by Wade Rackley.

Outside of Kenbrell Thompkins and Shane Vereen, I haven’t been a close observer of Patriots training camp. However, I heard there might be some use of Tebow as a tight end and it got me thinking of how I’d use Tim Tebow if I were New England’s offensive coordinator.

The Obvious

I’d be shocked if the Patriots don’t use Tebow on read-option plays in the red zone at least on a few plays a year. I don’t think it will happen a lot, because taking Tom Brady off the field is foolish. However, I think it will be difficult for the Patriots coaching staff to resist the temptation against some weaker run teams.

The reason is Rob Gronkowski’s strength as a run blocker combined with Zach Sudfeld’s experience as a wing back/H-back in Chris Ault’s Pistol sets as a lead blocker – much like Chris Brown described in his recent Grantland piece.  This two-tight end personnel with Sudfeld a better lead blocker than Aaron Hernandez ever was could provide a short-yardage power element and increase the versatility of the set.  I’ll illustrate the wrinkle I’d use later.

Tim Tebow Tight End?

I’ve heard this is a possibility and it’s the red zone sets where I think the Patriots would implement it. Think about Mike Vrabel’s work as a red zone tight end and I think we can expect similar looks to Tebow – especially with teams focused on Gronkowski. If the rookie Sudfeld – a 6’7″ specimen with skill to adjust to the football – plays to his potential, opposing defenses could lose track of Tebow as a receiver.

Using Tebow at tight end also creates additional formation flexibility where the Patriots can adjust before the snap:

  • Shift Gronkowski or Sudfeld away from the formation.
  • Shift Tebow to the backfield as a runner or quarterback.
  • Hand the ball the Ridley to an unbalanced strong side with Tebow as a fullback/H-Back.
  • Use unbalanced sets with Tebow on the wing to dictate a numbers advantage to one side and then throw backside crosses, slants, and jerk routes to receivers.

There’s a lot that Tebow’s presence can do for red zone packages. My favorite is the last one below.

Two-Quarterback Backfield

Tebow

This setup could create a lot of options for an offense in the red zone. First, it’s an unbalanced set with two versatile tight ends. Brady could shift the tight ends to balance the line. Or, if the shift would place one or both of the tight ends in a match up advantage with a linebacker, nickel corner, or safety of preference, they could spread the field.

But what I love most about this look is that Tebow could run, pass, or catch from his alignment. Placing Tebow behind Sudfeld on the wing provides enormous flexibility in the run game. If the defensive numbers are stacked to the strong side, they can run a counter with Sudfeld as a lead blocker and the twin receivers slanting inside to seal the inside.

If the defenses has even distribution, Tebow can run behind the strong side with good blocks ahead. The Patriots could do this with a direct snap to Tebow or an exchange from Brady.

And it’s this split of the quarterbacks over the guards that could force defenses to guess which player is getting the ball. Teams will guess run if it goes to Tebow, pass to Brady. But Tebow has proven he can deliver the ball in the red zone and there will be times he will have easy throws to Gronkowski or Sudfeld and even easier passes to his left (his natural side) to the backside receivers.

If teams are too aggressive playing Tebow, Brady also could have some easy throws.   Plus, I’d use two of  Shane Vereen, Julian Edelman (if ready), and Danny Amendola as my receivers. I could incorporate some Wildcat with Tebow and Vereen/Edelman motioning from the outside towards the formation.  Now there’s the possibility of zone-read, Wild Cat, and guessing which quarterback gets the snap.

If you’re fan of the team or have been monitoring training camp, let me know if what I describe below is happening in practices.