Posts tagged RSP

RSP Flashback: Dennis Pitta

July 28, 2013 0 Comments read Matt Waldman

What Pitta is doing here was commonplace for him at BYU - healthy or otherwise. Photo by Phil Romans. — What Pitta is doing here was commonplace for him at BYU – healthy or otherwise. Photo by Phil Romans.

One of the most common questions I get from new readers is What did you think about [insert player name here] before [NFL team] drafted him? For the next month, I’m posting scouting reports of some of my bigger hits, misses, and lingering questions when it comes to the past eight years of evaluating rookies for the Rookie Scouting Portfolio. I’ll also include the lessons I learned – or am still learning – from the experience of evaluating these players. [Author’s Note: I wrote this about Pitta two weeks ago. Too bad about his injury, he was poised for another strong season]

“[Pitta] is a tough, versatile player who might not wow teams with field-stretching plays, but he will be a great safety valve capable of the big, “little” plays that sustain drives and seal wins . . . paired with a veteran QB and [he] could out-produce some of the more athletic prospects in this class.”

– 2010 Rookie Scouting Portfolio

The 2010 tight end class was a great group that included no less than 16 players – including Dennis Pitta – who have made NFL teams and contributed meaningful minutes:

Jimmy Graham
Rob Gronkowski
Aaron Hernandez
Garrett Graham
Jermaine Gresham
Tony Moeaki
Ed Dickson
Jim Dray
Michael Hoomanawanui
Dorin Dickerson
Nate Byham
Andrew Quarless
Anthony McCoy
Dedrick Epps

I think 11 of these 15 tight ends above are better athletes than Pitta, but I had the BYU prospect ranked No.4 in this class – over some major names in this group. One was Gronkowski, who was suffering from back issues and I had concerns about his long-term viability.

Another was Graham, who was inexperienced and I felt it was difficult to rank him higher for having one great dimension to his game when the right team might not pick him to exploit it. Graham was one of several players between 2006-2010 who inspired an RSP Post-Draft because I mentioned in the 2010 RSP that the right team picking this Hurricanes tight end would be rewarded.

A third player with a higher profile than Pitta that I placed lower in my rankings was Gresham. The Sooners star was too inconsistent in all phases of the game despite his physical talents. While I whiffed on Demaryius Thomas because I didn’t pay enough attention to his workouts, Pitta’s injury situation on the field and the system at BYU actually highlighted certain skills that made me think the tight end would be productive NFL player.

The Cougars tight end was in a knee brace that restricted his movement in the games I watched. And it was what Pitta was able to do at a higher level than most tight ends I’ve watched in the college game while physically limited: play long against tight coverage and find the open zone.

http://youtu.be/m11pJJXm3Hs

He also reminded me of the likes of Frank Wycheck and Todd Christensen because of his skill creating openings.

[youtube=http://youtu.be/of1Y_N2jaQI]

Purely from the standpoint of athleticism, you could joke that neither Wycheck nor Christensen belonged in the NFL. However, their smarts, ability to handle a physical brand of football, and skill to do all the little things to generate big plays with and without the ball in their hands separate Pitta from the likes of his more physically talented teammate Ed Dickson – a good player, but lacks that extra level of savvy that would make him a borderline star, but has him planted behind Pitta despite being picked a round earlier.

There are a lot of things the highlights reveal about Pitta’s game that makes him a tough player both against man and zone coverage. First is the wide catch radius. Throw the ball high, low, outside or behind, and Pitta can adjust. Combine this with his ability to make plays in traffic and skill to work with his quarterback when the play breaks down and all of these qualities compensate for his lack of speed.

There were numerous things I learned or had reinforced as lessons from this 2010 tight end class:

I needed a post-draft analysis because of team fit (Graham-Hernandez).
Physical skills allow an evaluator to project how a player might fare against man coverage, but not necessarily zone coverage – where Pitta thrives.
Smart play lurks beyond stats and workout data.
Toughness to play physical and productive football while hurt separates great athletes from good football players.
I needed to document my process for ranking players in greater detail to connect the dots between game analysis and rankings analysis.

Here are my observations of Dennis Pitta from 2010.

For analysis of skill players in this year’s draft class, download the 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio available now. Better yet, if you’re a fantasy owner the 56-page Post-Draft Add-on comes with the 2013 RSP at no additional charge and available for download within a week after the NFL Draft. Best, yet, 10 percent of every sale is donated to Darkness to Light to combat sexual abuse. You can purchase past editions of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio for just $9.95 apiece.

RSP Flashback: Vincent Brown (and Austin Collie and Steve Smith)

July 25, 2013 0 Comments read Matt Waldman

Vincent Brown's evaluation for me was a culmination of lessons learned before watching him. Photo by mclanea. — Vincent Brown’s evaluation for me was a culmination of lessons learned before watching him. Photo by mclanea.

One of the most common questions I get from new readers is What did you think about [insert player name here] before [NFL team] drafted him? For the next month, I’m posting scouting reports and/or thoughts on some of my bigger hits, misses, and lingering questions when it comes to the past eight years of evaluating rookies for the Rookie Scouting Portfolio. I’ll also include the lessons I learned – or am still learning – from the experience of evaluating these players.

Quickness Is More Important Than Speed

But what I think gives Collie a chance to produce is his burst. He’s not a burner, but he is among the quickest receivers in this class. He may not catch 50-yard bombs with great separation on his opponent, but he’s faster than most in his class during his first 20 yards down field. As he gains experience, Collie will be able to set up his routes around his burst.

– 2009 Rookie Scouting Portfolio

Put Brown on a team with a strong play action game and he has the similar early route speed of an Austin Collie to get on top of a defender and generate big gains in addition to the between-the hash heroics of a possession receiver. Brown’s skills as a route runner, his technique against press coverage, and comfort level with physical play makes him a starter-caliber prospect regardless of a slower 40-time.

– 2011 Rookie Scouting Portfolio

To describe what I learned from watching Vincent Brown, I have to go back to what I saw with Austin Collie and Steve Smith. In a 2009 wide receiver class that included the likes of Michael Crabtree, Percy Harvin, and Hakeem Nicks, I thought Collie had the best pair of hands I’ve seen since Larry Fitzgerald. Nicks had this around-the-back catch against West Virginia and the 49ers staff raves about Crabtree’s hands, and both can make showy plays. Then there’s Fitzgerald, who makes the kind of ostentatious catches that seem impossible.

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XNcMF6ozE_Y&start=21w=420&h=315]

With the exception of a play at BYU where Collie dug a ball millimeters from the ground, Collie’s difficult grabs are generally understated. However, they are the type of passes that I often see more heralded prospects drop:

Seams, crossers, and post routes where the receiver just clears the underneath defender as the ball arrives, all the while aware of a strong chance he’ll get sandwiched. I call these Money Catches.
Low passes on comeback routes.
Catching the corner fade with the outside hand while looking over the inside shoulder.

Inexplicably, you won’t see a lot of these plays in YouTube highlights of Collie’s work at BYU. But a discussion of hands when it comes to receivers is talking about how well a basketball player can shoot. While there are a dozens of plays every year where the ostentatious catch is necessary, it’s a small percentage overall. When it comes to evaluating receivers, there’s a point where it crosses the line from utility to eye candy.

Basketball and football players have to show they can move with and without the ball and just like great shots and catches, speed can also cross the line from utility to eye candy. I don’t care if a receiver can beat everyone on the field in a race if he can’t make the right decisions to run the correct route, he can’t handle physical play from those covering him over top, and he lacks the concentration to win the football in difficult situations, the value of his speed diminishes greatly.

Sabermetics/Analytics: Good Intentions Needing Reassessment

I think most fans and sabermetricians in football place far too much emphasis on the 40 time. I believe they don’t understand the actual cut-off point for what is a good 40-time. They place the cutoff in the 4.5 range. Based on the articles I’ve read at several sites, 4.5-speed is adequate and 4.3 is elite.

If I’m correct, it’s a misplaced notion. While a receiver with great straight line speed can be dominant, he’s only great if he can do everything else that a receiver is supposed to do: process the game in real-time, catch the ball against defenders, and run the offense with precision. It’s rare for a receiver to out-run coverage with a safety over the top without some form of manipulation from another player. While a fast receiver may command that attention and place more stress on a defense it’s getting rarer despite the fact that receivers are getting faster with all of this emphasis on 40 time and 40-time training.

Regardless of the current NFL paradigm, I believe 4.6-4.7 – speed is adequate as long as that player has refined (or the potential to refine) technical and conceptual skills and adequate quickness. This is where players like Collie, Smith, and Brown shined. Their initial quickness is better than adequate. The same could be said for Anquan Boldin, Brandon Lloyd, Hakeem Nicks, and DeAndre Hopkins, who were all slower 40 runners.

I think the intent of analytics is a good one. They want to provide takeaways that help readers, fans, and in some cases, NFL teams. However, I have my fair share of interaction with marketing research – a field that is growing and getting attention just like football analytics.

The difference is that people who do marketing analytics understand the difficulty of truly arriving at short takeaways that executive teams desire. This is why it’s still difficult for them to get a seat at the boardroom table. Football analytics is a hot area, but it executives are also demanding takeaways. If market research is struggling to deliver these simple and elegant answers and they have strong academic training in statistical modeling, I fear that some in the football analytics field are are marketing their method as “the truth” when their methods would not pass muster in a true research environment.

Until personnel staff, sabermetricians, and fans actual focus on asking the right question (What is adequate speed and burst?), then I think they will struggle to deliver any worthwhile answer and just continue to torture data under the banner of objectivity. The problem is that many of these stats-based theories lack the setting and resources to do the quality of work required to generate optimal value. Still, it’s entertaining and don’t get me wrong, there are those who have the perspective to deliver nuggets of good information without getting too ambitious – Chase Stuart and Doug Drinen are two of my faves.

Just like scouting players based on tape, football analytics is still young. Scouting may be its older brother with a lot of dysfunctional traits, but analytics is a toddler in the same family that hasn’t worked through its hangups to avoid impacting its second son.

Team Fit Is Most Important

While Moss had the precision and speed to run under balls, he also could win 50/50 targets. Not all can do so and this makes fit to a players strengths a paramount importance in scouting. Photo by Brian J. McDermott.

With an accurate quarterback who possesses exquisite timing, quickness outweighs speed. This is why a player like Collie or Steve Smith were great fits for a quarterback like Peyton Manning, but not so much for passer who relies more pure arm strength over precision. Randy Moss and Cris Carter were perfect fits for Daunte Culpepper, because the Vikings passer had truth arm strength. Moss could run under anything or win any 50/50 ball. Carter could also win 50/50 balls and had an incredible catch radius.

Culpepper didn’t need as much precision with these two as he would with Keenan McCardell, Reggie Wayne, Austin Collie, or Steve Smith. At the same time, Collie and Smith could make the tough plays in traffic. Pair them with a quarterback with the confidence to allow them to win the ball, and they could still thrive. However, that quarterback has to demonstrate good decision-making when to take that type of chance.

This is a good example why team fit is a huge factor with evaluating players. One list of rankings does not fit all.

The Colts list had to value precision as well as physical and mental quickness. What you will see in any BYU highlight video of Collie is a consistent ability to get behind linebackers, corners, and safeties on vertical routes despite the fact that he was labeled as slow.

A Quick Thinker, Acts quicker.

Get the early advantage and it shows up later. This is why Collie won so many vertical routes or is running wide open through zones. His big plays at Indy often came on quick-hitting, precision plays. These are difficult passes because of the mental component. Think about how many Collie and Manning connected on and you’ll see how quickness often trumps speed.

Collie’s RSP score was an 85, which is high for a wide receiver in my system. Only Crabtree, Harvin, and Darrius Heyward-Bey (a lesson learned that it’s very important for a receiver to show he can catch the ball away from his body and not allow athleticism to gloss over technique) had higher scores that year.

Although I thought Collie could get separation in the NFL because of his precision, burst, and concentration, I wasn’t confident enough in my assessment to rank him higher than 12th in this class when he should have been no lower than seventh.

This is something I also saw with Giants receiver Steve Smith in 2007. The former USC receiver had the burst to get separation but not the long speed to have a lot of uncontested vertical targets unless his quarterback could demonstrate precision timing. Eli Manning lacked that refined skill during the Smith years and threw the ball late on several play action passes where Smith was wide open with a double move.

Lessons Don’t Come In A Linear Procession

Steve Smith didn't validate my notions until his third year - six months after evaluating Austin Collie. Photo by J. Handleman. — Steve Smith didn’t validate my notions until his third year – six months after evaluating Austin Collie. Photo by J. Handleman.

You would think I would have learned that Collie could hang in the NFL as a starter if I saw similar qualities from Steve Smith (.PDF Sample) as a top-3 receiver in my 2007 class. However, the validation of these points came too late for Collie because I produced my evaluation of Collie about 6-8 months prior to the 2009 season – the Pro Bowl year where Smith caught 107 passes for 1220 yards and 7 touchdowns.

That’s the fascinating thing about life – it doesn’t take a linear path (no matter how much we want to torture ourselves to make it so). Where these lessons began to take an applicable shape for me was in 2011 with Vincent Brown. The San Diego State receiver scored an 89 in my evaluation process – only A.J. Green (98) and Greg Salas (90) where higher.

I thought Salas had a ruggedness that was similar to Jordy Nelson and Michael Irvin. However, he didn’t show that same skill early in St. Louis and it cost him. A theory I have with Salas – beyond his own performance – is that once a player gets to the NFL and has NFL tape, teams rely more on the NFL scouts and the college book gets less weight. While the case doesn’t look good for Salas I think there’s still an element of his NFL story where the jury is out.

It also means we’re all still deliberating on Vincent Brown. He flashed excellent skill as a rookie, missed most of the year with an ankle injury last year, and has now earned a lot of praise from Chargers’ head coach Mike McCoy for his routes. Brown’s skill to get into optimal position combined with his hands makes him a player capable of earning time on the field, but he reason he fits so well with Philip Rivers is the fact he’s physical enough to make the Steve Smith-style money plays.

Rivers is a fearless passer. He has good timing over the middle, but tends to loft the ball on deeper routes. This means we see more plays where the receiver has to win the ball rather than run under it.

Rivers had this type of player with Vincent Jackson – a huge, downfield bully of a receiver who could win in tight coverage. Danario Alexander has some of this in his game, but has to stay healthy. Brown isn’t that big, but like Derrick Mason or Henry Ellard of years past, he has the skills to win the football in the air on intermediate and deep routes where timing doesn’t have to be pitch-perfect.

Here’s my pre-draft report on Vincent Brown. It’s a culmination of lessons I’ve been learning with the likes of Collie and Smith. Regardless of his future performance, I saw enough of him as a rookie to know that he has starter skill if he plays to his ability.

RSP Flashback: Demaryius Thomas

July 22, 2013 0 Comments read Matt Waldman

A.J. Green and Demaryius Thomas? Choose your death cornerbacks . . . Photo by Jeffery Beall. — Whiff . . . Yep. That’s what I did on Thomas in 2010. I can laugh about it now (a little bit). Photo by Jeffery Beall.

One of the most common questions I get from new readers is What did you think about [insert player name here] before [NFL team] drafted him? For the next month, I’m posting scouting reports and/or thoughts on some of my bigger hits, misses, and lingering questions when it comes to the past eight years of evaluating rookies for the Rookie Scouting Portfolio. I’ll also include the lessons I learned – or am still learning – from the experience of evaluating these players.

Setting Can Make All The Difference

“[Calvin] Johnson, is likely the next great all-purpose threat. Thomas’ talent is far more comparable to Plaxico Burress, who was a very good player once he developed, but not a great player.”

– 2010 Rookie Scouting Portfolio

I whiffed on Demaryius Thomas. If I was a running back and my take on the Broncos stud receiver was an attempt to pass protect for my readers, here’s a visual of what happened:

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0F3scSsrNOY&start=104w=560&h=315]

All I can do is go back to the huddle, say I’m sorry, and work harder. I underestimated Thomas’ speed and relied too much on my analysis within the confines of the Georgia Tech offense. Setting can make all the difference when evaluating a player.

Those who missed big on Cam Newton only saw him as a read-option player. He has been stout in the pocket. Many wrote off Drew Brees as a system quarterback. Perhaps he was merely a great match in two different NFL systems and that’s it, but I’ll take what he’s been dishing to opponents for nearly a decade. And every small school player is “doing it against inferior competition.”

I missed on Thomas because I couldn’t look past the run-heavy system. I should have learned more about the defensive backs Thomas faced and noted the type of throws targeting the Yellow Jackets receiver. Pair these things with Thomas’ minor consistency issues as a pass catcher and it was a disastrous analysis of his potential.

I learned that I had to think about what aspects of the position are an easy or difficult fix for coaches when they work with prospects. Accounting for the development curve – especially in an unusual offensive setting is necessary.

Thomas’ workout times before his foot injury should have also been an indicator me to double-check my work. Whenever a player demonstrates something away from his usual setting that you didn’t see before, it’s likely there are flashes of that skill in his normal setting or a reason why that setting is hiding it.

Here’s my overrated/underrated section from the 2010 RSP (Overrated Underrated 2010). I wish I could say I missed on Thomas because it was my Georgia bias versus a Tech player, but despite graduating from the University of Georgia, working at the university for nearly seven years, and living in Athens for 19 of the past 20 years, I’m barely more than a casual fan. The jury is still out on Jacoby Ford – who is also “overrated” here. However, if I were to judge Ford solely on his limited time in an NFL lineup, I’d say I was wrong there, too.

In fact, I’ve never been to a Georgia game. I’m not sure that’s going to happen, either. Watching games is a different experience for me now and the importance of setting is paramount.

RSP Flashback: Matt Leinart

July 21, 2013 0 Comments read Matt Waldman

Why is QB Matt Leinart an example of the "Four-car Garage Theory?" National Football Post Director of College Scouting Wes Bunting explains in this conversation with Matt Waldman. Photo by TheBrit_2. — Matt Leinart was a great lesson in trusting one’s own process. Photo by TheBrit_2.

One of the most common questions I get from new readers is What did you think about [insert player name here] before [NFL team] drafted him? For the next month, I’m posting scouting reports of some of the RSP’s bigger hits, misses, and lingering questions during my past eight years of evaluating rookies. I’ll also include the lessons I learned – or am still learning – from the experience of evaluating these players.

Trust Your Eyes

“I believe he has a good chance to become a productive NFL starter, but the reason he is overrated in my book has to do with his arm strength, accuracy, and the ability to protect himself in the pocket.”

– 2006 Rookie Scouting Portfolio

I think trusting what you see is the most important lesson I can share with anyone when it comes to observation and analysis. Like many simple statements, it’s easy to do for the young and innocent, but takes a lot of work if you’ve accumulated even an average amount of adult life experience.

Football evaluation tests my skill at trusting my eyes every day. The fact that there’s no shortage of opinions in mass media at every turn compounds the challenge. What you read, watch, and hear about a player becomes voices in your head that you can hear as you watch the film. Sometimes it’s helpful, but it can also increase the difficulty of separating what you think from public opinion.

Matt Leinart was that rookie rite of passage for me in this respect.

The darling of football prospects who opted to stay in school for another year despite talk of earning a top-10 ticket to the NFL as a junior, Leinart was the next Tom Brady. That was the hype and the hype was everywhere.

But a funny thing happened as I began watching Leinart and using a set list of criteria to evaluate his game: there was a disconnect between what I was seeing from the USC quarterback and the hype. The realization it was time for me to keep the voices at bay was when I heard a color commentator praise Leinart’s arm after watching wide receiver Steve Smith make a great adjustment on a bad throw down the middle of the field to save his quarterback’s bacon.

At that point, I stopped reading other people’s work and began watching games with the audio muted. It was like taking the training wheels off and riding with my own sense of inner balance. When I began sharing my opinion that Leinart wasn’t the best quarterback in this 2006 class (Jay Cutler and Vince Young were my top two in that order) the response wasn’t great. The fact that I had him tied for third with Bruce Gradkowski would have made it worse if I had any sort of following.

It was good that I encountered this type of feedback early, because it doesn’t matter what people think. If you truly want to learn then you have to trust what you see. If you’re wrong for the right reasons you’ll learn faster than you will when you’re right for the wrong reasons.

Those “reasons” are your eyes vs. their eyes. There is nothing wrong with learning something from another person, but you better truly see what they’re showing. If you don’t, question it.

Here are my thoughts on Matt Leinart at the time I was studying him at USC. Again, the RSP and my knowledge has come a long away from 2006. Even so, it’s still a test to make sure I’m using my eyes to watch a player and not listening to other voices. Sometimes it’s that subtle a difference.

Reads Listens Views 7/19/2013

July 19, 2013 0 Comments read Reads Listens Views

Geno Smith reminds me of Tony Romo. I see it, but I also see the other players on that spectrum of style. See below. Photo by Football Schedule. — Check out Scott Kacsmar’s article on Tony Romo. See below. Photo by Football Schedule.

Thank You

I’m fortunate to be at the intersection of two great football communities: fantasy football and draft evaluation. On the whole, the writers I interact with are knowledgeable, hard working, and humble. So it’s an honor when I see these members of my audience also participating in contests like the Jadeveon Clowney event this month.

If you haven’t purchased the 2013 RSP, remember that it also includes the post-draft. If you are new to the blog, here’s a little more about the RSP and some sample material. Remember, 10 percent of each purchase is donated to Darkness to Light to providing training to communities to prevent and address the epidemic of sexual abuse.

Views – Chad and Terrell Would Fit In Well

[youtube=http://youtu.be/0bomkgXeDkE]

Football Reads

The 2013 Football Outsiders Almanac – A lot of hard work from some terrific folks goes into this fine publication. Check it out.
NFL Myth-Busting: Tony Romo – Scott Kacsmar’s fine piece on the Cowboys’ quarterback.
A Better Box Score: Simple Ways To Improve The Basic Game Recap – Chris “Smart Football” Brown in action.
NFL Position Coaches to Keep An Eye On – H/T to Josh Norris for Tweeting it.
Wes Welker Versus Danny Amendola – New Footballguys’ writer Kyle Wachtel looks at the tale of the tape (subscribers only).

Views – Why We Should Build Wooden Skyscrapers (Awesome)

[ted id=1785]

Non-Football Reads

Florida Man Who Woke Up Speaking Swedish Is ID’d By Sister – This is from NPR and not the Enquirer – I promise.
Jerry Sandusky’s adopted son files to change name – And yes, he’s willing to testify his adopted father also molested him.
McDonald’s Can’t Figure Out How It’s Workers Survive On Minimum Wage – Perhaps management has also spent too much time using those arithmetic-proof cash registers.

Listens – The Hippest Version of Twinkle Twinkle Little Star You’ll Hear

[youtube=http://youtu.be/j2DEfTzb9zc]

These four have made a lot of great recording artists sound good in their time. You’d probably only know them if you were a student at the University of Miami. Glad I had that chance. The final movement is a lot of fun. You’re little kid will dig it.

Listens – The Saxophonist Who Kept Coltrane’s Interest Until Trane Died

http://youtu.be/Ag1uKsbpKqA

The saxophonist is John Gilmore, who is best known for playing with Sun Ra. If you don’t know who Sun Ra is, you’ll either love or hate his music. This setting is a much more straight ahead gig with Art Blakey. Many people didn’t know Gilmore gigged with the Messengers. If you listen to Trane then you can hear the Gilmore influence in the solo.

Listens – On The Couch w/Bloom, Cosell, and Yours Truly

In This Episode: Sigmund Bloom, Matt Waldman, and Greg Cosell (NFL Films) discuss the NFL. Topics Include – the decline of the importance of the running back in the NFL, the limited sample size of read option quarterbacks, how Tom Brady will adjust to the loss of Aaron Hernandez, whats next for Sam Bradford, Jay Cutler, and Andy Dalton, differing opinions on LeVeon Bell, plus more!

RSP Flashback: Marshawn Lynch and Adrian Peterson

July 18, 2013 0 Comments read Matt Waldman

One of the most common questions I get from new readers is What did you think about [insert player name here] before [NFL team] drafted him? For the next month, I’m going to post scouting reports of some of my bigger hits, misses, and lingering questions when it comes to the past eight years of evaluating rookies for the Rookie Scouting Portfolio. I’ll also include the lessons I learned – or am still learning – from the experience of evaluating these players.

It’s Possible To Mistake Long Speed for Stamina

“[Lynch] has the potential to be an excellent, all-purpose back in the NFL. He’d be excellent in a west coast system such as Seattle, Philly, or Green Bay.”

– 2007 Rookie Scouting Portfolio

“Raw talent alone, Peterson is one of the top two players in this entire draft. if he can be more disciplined as a runner – choices and ball protection – he as the type of rare power-speed-balance combos shared among the all-time great backs of the Brown-Dickerson-Campbell lineage.”

– 2007 Rookie Scouting Portfolio

Marshawn Lynch was my No.1 running back in the 2007 NFL Draft, including Adrian Peterson – by the smallest of margins. The reason was the polish in Lynch’s game versus the raw talent of Peterson’s. I hated making this call at the time because any fool could see how good Peterson could be.

What I learned from Peterson: I don’t think I have invoked as great a trio of runners to compare to one back’s ability before or since watching Peterson at Oklahoma. You can ask Mike MacGregor and Mike Krueger of FFToday.com about the time I made them sit through a taping of Peterson running like a wild horse against Haloti Ngata’s Oregon team. After a long day of meetings at Krueger’s loft in Kansas City, they weren’t that interested. I didn’t care; I was smitten with Peterson.

However, his two biggest issues – discipline with choices at the line of scrimmage and protecting the football – were problematic enough to put talented runners on the bench early in their careers. While I didn’t think either would endanger Peterson’s career – although fumbles were problematic – I made the mistake of thinking the sum of Lynch’s game earned a higher ranking than the totality of the Peterson experience.

[youtube=http://youtu.be/Nhr8oYBoiUI]

Classic over analysis.

What I learned from Lynch: Lynch’s versatility as a receiver and interior runner were appealing, but I misjudged his long speed. Even when I look at these highlights, I see that I mistook his stamina for quality, long-speed. There’s a difference. Lynch’s best game-breaking runs often come when he’s using the width of the field to weave through the defense while maintaining a pace and intensity that wears out the pursuit.

As we’ve seen, Lynch’s burst, skill after contact, and footwork make him a top-flight runner in the NFL. However, it’s his stamina on long runs that has helped him create one of the five most great and meaningful runs in the history of the NFL.

[youtube=http://youtu.be/W0URyxkeSZM]

It’s this stamina that is closely related to the trait Lynch displayed at Cal that is perhaps his most endearing to football fans: toughness. I watched numerous games where Lynch was a big part of the offense despite playing through injuries against top competition. The most memorable was a 25-touch, 109-yard performance against a 2006 USC defense that sent numerous players to the NFL.

Lynch carried the ball 20 times, successfully blocked 8 assignments, broke 6 tackles, earned 5 first downs, and caught all 5 targets while playing with 2 sprained ankles. He routinely gained 2-5 yards after contact in this game.

Peterson may have been a wild horse, but Lynch was a true workhorse. However if I had judged Lynch’s speed better and had more experience watching runners work past the same issues that plagued Peterson, I think Peterson would have remained in the top spot.

These .PDFs of Adrian Peterson and Marshawn Lynch are more game summaries than in-depth, play-by-play analysis – the RSP has evolved quite a bit since it’s inception. However, the checklists and information still give you a strong sense of what I saw from two of the best runners in the game today.

2013 RSP Reports Sample

July 16, 2013 0 Comments read RSP Publication

If you think of me when you see these three players - among others - you don't need me to say any more. If you don't, perhaps its time to starting downloading the RSP publication every April 1. — If you think of me when you see these three players – among others – you don’t need me to say any more. If you don’t, perhaps its time to starting downloading the RSP publication. Start today.

Depending on how you found the RSP blog, you either know me as a football talent evaluator or a fantasy football writer. Studying NFL prospects has helped me understand why a fantasy draft approach like the Upside Down Strategy has value – even in a year where there appears to be a lot of depth at receiver and quarterback. And I think it’s refining my analysis of these positions.

Last year, I learned a little more about the Fantasy Pros Accuracy rankings methodology and resolved to work a little harder on delivering better rankings as opposed to focusing mostly on over-arching strategies. I learned this weekend that Fantasy Pros accuracy analysis listed my quarterback rankings No.1 and my wide receiver rankings No.8 out of 109 fantasy writers in 2012. A lot of the credit goes to the work I do here.

As the NFL acquires new blood, I’m becoming more familiar with them because of the analysis I perform for the Rookie Scouting Portfolio. Today, I’m providing a sample section from the 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio pre-draft publication. This is just a small taste of the 260-page guide that also has a more than 1000 pages – yes, that number is correct – of individual scouting reports and play-by-play notes for those of you who wish to wade in the detail. Then there’s the post-draft analysis that is included with the package that my readers say is worth the $19.95 you pay for both.

If you are a fantasy owner – dynasty or re-draft – and you haven’t downloaded the 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio, you’re cheating yourself. Plus, 10 percent of each sale goes to Darkness to Light, an organization that provides community training to address and prevent sexual abuse.

Overview and Fantasy Impact of the WR Position

This year, 5’8” 174-pound Tavon Austin is considered by many a first-round lock. There hasn’t been a receiver this short picked in the first round of an NFL Draft in at least 25 years. It’s a sign that the NFL is broadening its horizons when it comes to offense.

The success of Percy Harvin and Randall Cobb has helped – both were players without a traditional position and no bigger than 5’11”, 195 pounds. Although Marvin Harrison – a 6’0”, 175-pound receiver – was a first-round pick in 1996, the fact that teams are now spending high picks on shorter and lighter receivers with greater frequency is a change. The Lions and and Chiefs used second-round picks (Top 45 overall) on lightweights Titus Young (174 lbs.) and Dexter McCluster (165 lbs.), which is validation that what is an acceptable physical prototype is changing.

Young and McCluster have not worked out like Harvin and Cobb, but physical ability hasn’t been the root cause. Teams are taking notice and now we’re looking at the possibility of Austin getting selected within the first 25 picks. A lot has changed in a short period of time.

However, one thing hasn’t changed about the position. Receiver remains a difficult position to play in the NFL. Even with the cross-pollination of pro-style and spread offenses in the NFL and college football, changes in rules that favor the passing game, and the use of routes like the back-shoulder fade, there’s a canyon-sized gap in what constitutes good play in the college and pro games due to scheme complexity, speed of the game, a higher bar for precision, and the toll of a longer season.

Regardless of height, weight, or style of skill set, it’s a good idea not to count on top-tier production from rookie wide receivers yet remain open to the possibility of three of four players who might reach this summit based on surrounding talent.

A good example is the 2012 class. While not as dynamic out the gate as the crew from 2011 – a class that featured top fantasy scorers A.J. Green (14^th), Julio Jones (17^th), and Torrey Smith (23^rd) – there were still six receivers with at least 500 yards. This total matched the 2011 group.

The marquee producers weren’t as productive, but the 2012 class showed plenty of depth and promise. Justin Blackmon (29^th), T.Y. Hilton (31^st), and Josh Gordon (40^th) were viable No.3 fantasy wide receivers in many leagues and Kendall Wright (45^th) and Chris Givens (58^th) provided weeks of valuable flex production.

It’s still rare to see rookie receivers post starting-caliber fantasy production, but the “noted exceptions” continues to grow to the point that it’s becoming more difficult to use that label in the scope of recent history. We’re gradually entering a new era and it’s becoming commonplace to count on 3-4 rookie receivers to get the job done.

Top 12 Rookie Yardage Seasons for a Wide Receiver

Last Name	First Name	Yr.	Team	G	Rec	Rec Yd	Rec Td
Groman	Bill	1960	TEN	14	72	1473	12
Boldin	Anquan	2003	ARI	16	101	1377	8
Moss	Randy	1998	MIN	16	69	1313	17
Howton	Billy	1952	GB	12	53	1231	13
Clayton	Michael	2004	TB	16	80	1193	7
Glenn	Terry	1996	NE	15	90	1132	6
Brooks	Billy	1986	IND	16	65	1131	8
Hill	Harlon	1954	CHI	12	45	1124	12
Givins	Ernest	1986	TEN	15	61	1062	3
Green	A.J.	2011	CIN	15	65	1057	7
Galloway	Joey	1995	SEA	16	67	1039	7
Colston	Marques	2006	NO	14	70	1038	8

Over 50 percent of the names on this list were drafted after 1995 and that also includes 16 of the top 30 rookie performances. One third of these performances have come since I began writing the Rookie Scouting Portfolio. We’re not going to see five to seven rookies become fantasy starters every year unless there’s a slew of injuries to veterans across the league, but expecting two players to play like starters and two more to provide good support for NFL and fantasy rosters is reasonable.

Dynasty and Redraft League Advice

Dynasty leaguers need to be patient when selecting a receiver in the opening rounds of a draft – even if that player has “instant impact” written all over him. It often takes a receiver two to four years to develop into an NFL starter.

In most situations, redraft owners would be best advised to use caution when drafting a rookie receiver. My general advice is to wait until late—if you pick one at all. Some of the better options (Torrey Smith, T.Y. Hilton, and Josh Gordon) will be available on the waiver wire. Learning enough about their potential in a publication like this one should put you in position to capitalize on an opportunity to add value to your roster during the season.

I say this annually, but feel the need to continue restating it: It is no surprise that the Rookie Scouting Portfolio’s evaluation method yields lower scores for wide receivers across the board than running back due to what is typically an extended adjustment period.

Other than quarterback, receivers require more significant coaching than any other position: blocking, route running, releases against press coverage, and route adjustments based on the play call are all common issues rookies face. The majority of college offenses only need to exploit a receiver’s athletic talents to create a successful passing game.

Timing routes such as skinny posts, deep posts, and deep ins aren’t as common in college ball as are hitches, streaks, fades, and slants—routes that allow a receiver to out-run, out-jump, or out-muscle his opponent and rely less on timing and technique. Athleticism is still important, but timing, technique, and strategy separate former college stars from quality pros.

There are a number of receivers with grades in the 60s on my 100-point scale who can develop into quality contributors at the next level.

This Class: The 10,000-Ft. View

Last year I said there were 30 receivers with talent to make a roster; 12-15 with starter potential; and 4-6 who could become high-end producers.

This year I think there are 45 receiver with talent to make a roster; 20 with starter potential in the next 3-4 years; and as crazy as this sounds, 15 players with 1000-yard potential. This class as depth, breadth, and special talent.

As with every class, there will be players who don’t play to expectation and players who will wildly exceed them. I don’t expect all of my top 15 players to have consistent 1000-yard seasons; my job is to give you an idea of who can be good and why. At this early vantage point, 2013 is a great class for drafting receivers.

How to Best Use My Rankings for Fantasy Drafts

Fortunately for you, there two sets of rankings at your disposal when you purchase the RSP: the April pre-NFL draft rankings that weigh heavily towards talent and the May post-draft update that factors both talent and team.

The pre-NFL draft rankings in this publication are player based on how I perceive his technique, talent, athleticism, and potential for growth. I do this with a variety of analysis methods – none of them have to do with where I think a player might be drafted.

I know that some plays I rank high than the norm aren’t realistic short-term values:

Cincinnati’s Kenbrell Thompkins might be a late-round pick at best.
Marquess Wilson cost himself a second or third-round selection when he singled out his coach and quit the Washington State football team.
Marlon Brown tore his ACL this year.

Evaluating talent and evaluating where in the draft – if at all – to invest in that talent are two different processes. This is a long-term value to you, because you’ll get my initial take on the player without factoring business considerations that can cloud the issue and then an adjusted prognosis.

If your rookie draft take place before the NFL Draft, I often note if I believe I have a player high or normal than the consensus so you can make informed decisions with where to adjust my rankings into a draft board that suits your needs.

If have a player ranked sixth at his position but he’s considered a fifth-round value, I recommend you consider that player undervalued for fantasy purposes. You can wait to acquire him later. In some leagues it might be prudent not to draft the player at all because he’ll be available as a free agent and you can track his progress without using a roster spot.

In some situations you’ll have to decide whether or not you agree with my assessment of the player’s talent or value him according to his draft position and opportunity with his new team.

Explanation of the “Ceiling Score”

The Ceiling Score is what I believe the player’s potential checklist score would be if he improved upon the skills and techniques from the RSP scoring checklist that I think he is capable of addressing. The closer the player’s actual checklist score is to his ceiling, the closer he is to maximizing his abilities.

A player with a low checklist score but a high ceiling score is likely a project or a boom-bust prospect. These players have entered the highest level of football with a lot to learn. Some players view this transition to the NFL as an opportunity to have fewer distractions from their development plan. Others find even more opportunities for distraction now that they are free from the constraints of an hourly schedule that universities impose on them.

Rookie Productivity – A Historical Perspective

There’s not much of a gap in production between receivers drafted in the first two rounds over the past seven years. I believe on some level this indicates that NFL teams often grade players they drafted in the second round as first-round talents. I also think they regard second-round picks as players they expect to start early.

In hindsight, what drives production is targets. If a receiver is generating a high level of targets, his quarterback trusts him and he’s reliable to generate receptions, yardage, and touchdowns. Common sense. If a rookie receiver earns a starting job in a passing offense with an NFL starting quarterback with just average ability, there’s little reason to avoid selecting him in fantasy drafts if we can safely assume he’s going to see a steady share of targets.

Skill Breakdowns

The Rookie Scouting Portfolio checklists are designed to assess whether a player possesses a baseline physical skill or technique as defined in the glossary of the publication. What it does not do is differentiate how much or little of that technique each player has. The skill breakdown reports are an avenue to explore these comparisons. This is a more subjective process that distills the notes taken in the profiles section of the game analysis research tool.

Improvement Spectrum or “Ease of Fix” for Wide Receiver Skill Sets

This year, I am including my thoughts on a player’s potential to improve his skills within each category. It’s important to remember that athletes often enter their prime in their mid-to-late twenties, which is a attributable to a combination of increased physical, technical, and conceptual skill.

“Ease of Fix”

The style of type that I used for each name in these categories indicates a prospect’s potential to improve within these skill sets:

Normal Type: Little to no change projected as this player transitions to the NFL.
Easy Fix: These skills can improve with ease to moderate ease if the player makes the effort.
Hard Fix: These skills typically take a great effort to address, if possible to address at all.
Bad Habits: These players have bad habits they need to unlearn – a difficult transition, at best.

· Underrated or Underrated: Underrated aspect of player’s game or underrated with more opportunity to improve.

The subheadings under each skill table listed below should be reasonably self-explanatory, but here’s a quick breakdown.

Star Caliber: A level of skill that rivals the best in the game at his position.
Starter Caliber: A level of skill commensurate with a full-time starter at his position.
Committee Caliber: A baseline level of skill for a player to contribute productively in an offense.
Reserve Caliber: These players lack some amount of technique or athleticism to consistently be productive, but the skill is good enough to contribute to a team.
Free Agent: These players lack the minimum skill in a given area to make a team if evaluated strictly by this single component.
Deficient: The player’s skill set is so lacking that they aren’t likely to receive interest from a team until it improves to a at least a free agent level.

Separation

The term encompasses the skills and techniques involved with gaining distance from an opponent assigned to coverage. Two contributing factors are speed and acceleration. Some receivers have the speed to get behind a defense even when the defenders are giving a cushion of 8-10 yards. Others are long-striders that build up speed and then there are receivers that aren’t particularly fast over a longer distance, but their initial quickness is so good that it catches faster defenders off guard and out of position. However, there are rarely players fast enough to get consistent separation by running in a straight line. The most important way to get consistent separation in the NFL is to win against press coverage. This involves a variety of techniques a receiver uses with his hands and feet that he mixes and matches to get into his route.

NOTE: THIS REPORT BELOW IS ONLY CATEGORIZING PLAYERS BY ONE SPECIFIC SKILL SET AND NOT THEIR OVERALL GAME.

For even more analysis of skill players in this year’s draft class, download the 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio available now. Better yet, if you’re a fantasy owner the Post-Draft Add-on comes with the 2013 RSP at no additional charge. Best, yet, 10 percent of every sale is donated to Darkness to Light to combat sexual abuse. You can purchase past editions of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio for just $9.95 apiece.

Mirror Images: Reggie Wayne – Champ Bailey

July 16, 2013 0 Comments read Matt Waldman

Champ Bailey and Reggie Wayne weren't mirror images 12 years ago, but Fahey explains how age was the defining - and refining - factor. Photo by Jeffery Beall. — Champ Bailey’s legs might be slower, but his experience helps him operate at warp speed. Photo by Jeffery Beall.

Champ Bailey and Reggie Wayne weren’t mirror images 12 years ago, but Fahey explains how age was the defining – and refining – factor. With a combined quarter century of NFL excellence, why not?

By Cian Fahey, Pre Snap Reads

Editor’s Note: A game I’ve been playing in my head in recent months is to take an offensive player and find his mirror image on the opposite side of the line of scrimmage. For example, Joey Galloway and Darrell Green were stylistically mirror images of each other. Both had amazing speed that sometimes overshadowed their underrated displays of craft at their respective positions over the course of lengthy and productive careers. Now I’m putting it on the blog and having some of my friends play.

Recently, on twitter(does this count as breaking the fourth wall?) I asked a simple question:

“If I reverted Peyton Manning and Tom Brady back to being 23 years of age with full health, in what order would you draft Andrew Luck, Robert Griffin III, Russell Wilson, Manning and Brady?”

The overwhelming majority of responses had either Manning or Brady at the top of the list. It may seem like a stupid question, but why wouldn’t anyone take the rookie stars from last season? Maybe my subsection of the twitter universe is the rare cautious kind who are scared of brash statements or questioning the unknown. That’s unlikely considering the unique quirks of the oddball bringing them together.

Presuming that my poll has an accurate reflection on the majority’s thinking, the answer is simple. Peyton Manning and Tom Brady have proven themselves for over a decade in the league. Year in and year out help their teams win football games. It may seem ridiculous, but that aspect is completely overlooked in today’s NFL. Longevity is the most underused word in NFL analysis and the most undervalued consideration for any kind of player ratings or rankings.

When is the last time you heard someone refer to longevity as a positive for a player? If it was recently, how often do you hear it? Unless you’re encountering a rare soul like Alen Dumonijic who is always considering the whole package, the likelihood is whoever you talk to will be caught up in the moment. That’s not necessarily a bad thing, because the moment right now is pretty amazing.

You’ve got quarterbacks rewriting the book on rookie expectations in the NFL. J.J. Watt, Von Miller and Richard Sherman are altering the perception of defensive players in different ways. There’s no need to question those performances; sit back and enjoy the rare opportunities we have to watch them. We don’t need to question those performances to appreciate the quality of those who have been doing it for much longer periods however. Players who are still doing it despite being some distance past their primes.

Manning an Brady are probably the poster boys for longevity in the NFL. While it’s a great achievement that both have played the game for so long, the positions they play have somewhat allowed them to last as long as they have. It’s also boring and talked to death. Instead, let’s try to appreciate two players playing positions that generally belong to the youth of the league.

Reggie Wayne and Champ Bailey are a combined 69 years on this planet, with a combined 26 seasons of professional football under their belts. At 34 and 35 years of age, they’re supposed to already be filling out the edges of the depth chart and providing guidance to the youth taking on the starting roles. Considering that today’s league is littered with spread offenses and athletic receivers that can either run past you or jink around you, you’re not supposed to be able to succeed without significant speed.

Of course, every casual fan of the game thinks that Champ Bailey isn’t able to succeed without his speed because of that playoff game against the Baltimore Ravens. That’s not exactly true. Bailey had an outstanding season last year. He doesn’t have the same athleticism that he once had, but he still has enough to flourish in the right situations. Press coverage against one of the fastest receivers in the league with no safety help is not the right situation.

He may not be a shutdown cornerback anymore, but he isn’t that far off. He can still move all over the field, has the speed to run with most receivers, the quickness to get ahead of almost any and the intelligence to still get the most out of his ball-skills.

With veteran receivers, it's the first 10 yards that yield the final five. Photo by Dan04. — With veteran receivers, it’s the first 10 yards that yield the final five. Photo by Dan04.

Wayne on the other hand has embraced his role as a possession receiver during the Andrew Luck-era in Indianapolis. He was never solely a burner, but Wayne was much more of an all-around receiver during his prime, whereas last season he played the Hines Ward role in Bruce Arians’ offense. Within that role, Wayne was able to take advantage of defensive backs with his refined route running and accurate understanding of coverages to consistently come free. Of course, even though his speed had faded, his hands were only getting softer as the seasons went on.

Having those aspects of his game still in tact allowed him to succeed still, but much like Bailey, where he fit was also vital. With T.Y. Hilton, LaVon Brazill and Donnie Avery last year, Wayne was surrounded by more than enough speed to pull the top off the defense, while Hilton and Brazill are joined by Darrius Heyward-Bey in those roles for this upcoming season.

Longevity isn’t a reflection of talent. It’s a reflection of ability. The ability to evolve, adapt, and excel, despite facing the different obstacles that emerge throughout the span of a football career. So even while Wayne and Bailey’s physical traits continue to diminish, it’s their football abilities that have allowed them to extend their longevity to Favreian heights.

At some point, both players will be retired. When that happens, you can be pretty certain that both will be in the Hall of Fame. That’s not because they had a record-breaking season or two, or because they starred as rookies. It’s because for over a decade, they were superstars.

Reads Listens Views 7/12/2013

July 12, 2013 0 Comments read Reads Listens Views

Hanford Dixon and Frank Minnifield they may not be (yet), but Liskiewitz's choice of the Seahawks corner tandem is a smart nod. Photo by Football Schedule. — Brandon Browner is my type of player. Photo by Football Schedule.

Thank You

I got the idea for the Rookie Scouting Portfolio in 2003. I still have a journal filled with notes I took in longhand while watching Steven Jackson and Brandon Browner at Oregon State. I liked Browner for his physicality. The fact that he’s considered a relatively new contributor in the NFL is an amazing story that speaks a lot to his perseverance to take the hard road to get there.

I get it. A project like the RSP requires perseverance. Those who truly study film of draft prospects learn this in short order. You have to give up a lot to do what you love.

A lot of people don’t understand it. I’m living the dream to them. However, they’re dreaming if they think it’s like they imagine.

The cost of a living the dream is a high price tag of commitment to make something a career before it even has a glimmer of true hope to supply what people expect as the benefits. It’s long on work and short on free time, sleep, and it challenges your capacity for repetitive work.

It can take a physical and emotional toll. I’m not alone. This goes for guys like Josh Norris and Dane Brugler and West Bunting and Chad Reuter before them. I could go into detail, but it’s going to sound more and more like a woe as me tale and that’s not the intent.

I love what I do. I chose to do it. I’m paying the freight.

While I thank you for reading the blog and buying the Rookie Scouting Portfolio, the person who deserves the greatest thanks is my wife. She entered my life just after I had waded waste-deep into this commitment. She heard me tell her when we started dating that I’m about a quarter of the way into a career marathon that would mean a lifestyle where doing something as simple as spending free time together might require an organized appointment.

That’s a negative on the romance scale and she didn’t flinch.

She was willing to commit to me and this insane project. She’s flexible about when and how we spend time together. She has provided as many good ideas about what I do with the RSP as anyone. And she’s a beautiful soul who is direct, smart, funny, and one of the toughest people I know.

Thank you, Alicia – a big reason why more and more people are finally figuring out that the Rookie Scouting Portfolio is one of the best small investments of fantasy football/draftnik season is because you’ve persevered so I can continue to do the same.

Download the RSP not because of me getting sentimental, but because I believe in the next statement as much as anything in my life: You’ll immediately see that you got more than your money’s worth for the price you pay. In fact many of you will feel like you’re cheating me – about 2 in every 10 readers email me this sentiment.

Enough of that – time to share things that caught my eye on the Internet in recent weeks.

Listens

I want you to listen to the first 50 seconds of this video and see if you can remember how the melody sounds.

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=atZ8s75iU6E&w=560&h=315]

Now listen to the way these two greats take the same song and make it a new one. The song below is the same basic harmony as the one above, but these guys turn a Cole Porter standard “What Is This Thing Called Love” into a more passionate, earthier, down n’ dirty “Hot House” . . .

[youtube=http://youtu.be/EKiyq1VoAZs ]

To this day, this is still the definition of bad assery at its finest and why great Hip-Hop has its roots in Bebop. I’m sure if I had only five songs to listen to for the rest of my life, this version of “Hot House” would make the list.

Views

About 15 years ago I volunteered as a hospice worker for an Anglican Priest who lived in a trailer about 25 miles from Athens. He was a Korean War veteran. The blast of an exploding shell while on an air craft carrier temporarily blinded him and bought him a ticket back to the states.

While at a military hospital in Texas a few women from the nearby Indian reservation would volunteer to help the injured veterans. One of the volunteers began reading this man’s letters daily. They fell in love and he proposed before he ever had the bandages lifted from his eyes.

They were married over 40 years. They moved to Georgia, bought a big house, had two kids, and adopted 27 others during their lifetime. He managed a local hardware store and later an became the Anglican Priest he was when I met him. He had a large congregation and many people in the community came to him for advice.

His wife died after a long battle with cancer and when he was diagnosed a number of years later, he opted not to seek treatment. He had seven years of decent health before I met him. I cleaned for him, set up mouse traps for this small trailer he had moved to after the state government built a highway through his house, and made runs to pick up Kentucky Fried Chicken – his favorite. Most of all I listened to him tell stories about his life.

What was most memorable about my time with this man was that he had 29 kids, a community he gave so much to, and he thanked me – a 28-year-old at the time – for allowing him to tell me things he would never feel comfortable telling any of them. The reason was he was always the listener and adviser.

That was his role and he felt that no one around him knew how to give him the support all human beings need. I suspect he didn’t know how to receive support – much less ask it from those who saw him as a provider for most of his adult life. While this saddened me on some level, I was grateful that I could be there for another human being in this way.

So when I see the picture of this man in a hospital in his final days and the staff allowed him to spend time with his dog, it reminds me that bonds are not always predictable and it’s nice to see an organization recognize it – especially a place prone to bureaucratic entanglements like a hospital.

Views

[youtube=http://youtu.be/xPAat-T1uhE]

If you don’t have a daughter, this will make you think long and hard about how you see women. It’s also telling of how much hard work goes into being a truly great actor – emotional work and openness that the average person wouldn’t dare tread. Hat Tip to Jared Plotts in the 216 (if it is still 216).

Football Reads

Who’s really in charge? Power structures for all 32 teams – Albert Breer’s analysis of the decision-makers in the NFL.
Zone-Blocking Basics – E.C. Stoner delivers another strong piece on a technical aspect of the game that should enrich how you see running the football.
Fake Football Writing Contest Results – I got to judge the finals and there were some good pieces to read.
Why Trent Richardson’s 3.6-yard-per-carry average does not matter – A tasty dish from Chase Stuart at Football Perspective.

Non-Football Reads

Welcome to Hell: Philadelphia Has a Serious Case of Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder – If there is one article you read today, this month, or this year, Steve Volk’s piece that reveals how our cities have youth dealing with issues similar to our veterans and Rwandans is the one to read. It will take you about 20 minutes, but I implore you to do so.
King of the Hill Animation Help – I’m not a big fan of animated sitcoms. They have their moments, but I don’t get into them like my wife. However thanks to her, I am a converted die-hard fan of King of the Hill. This is a good PowerPoint for wannabe animators who worked on the show. Entertaining if you’re a King of the Hill buff – and I’ve seen on Twitter than many of you are.
BBC broadcast of Sylvia Path reading her poem “Tulips” – One of the most powerful voices in modern poetry reads one of her pieces. This is an edgy piece because of the juxtaposing imagery of passion and sterility. There’s a tone with her reading where I feel like I’m witnessing an animal that is tense and warning you it’s about to strike if you don’t retreat. H/T to Doug Farrar – yes, that Doug Farrar – for tweeting this the other day.
The Sound of Color – Colorblind artist Neil Harbisson is an intrepid “eyeborg” wearer. That’s a device that converts color into audible frequencies, meaning that Harbisson gets to hear a symphony of color, instead of seeing a world only in grayscale.
The Man Who Predicted Google Glass Forecasts The Near Feature – Physicist and award-winning sci-fi writer David Brinn shares some compelling thoughts.
Banana Peels Into Plastic? – You betcha. H/T to Gary Davenport – a writer I need to feature more here for his fantasy football work.
Goodwill’s Salaries Called Into Question – I love Goodwill’s concept. The execution might need some work.

Views

From the sublime to hilarious toilet humor . . .

[youtube=http://youtu.be/NySWcNT8Oe4]

H/T to my old friend Joe Mendez, who is one of the more well-read guys I know but also one of the least pretentious. Miss hanging with you.

RSO Writers’ League Team Profile: Ryan McDowell, DLF

July 10, 2013 0 Comments read Matt Waldman

Lots of Luck for Ryan McDowell's team - $103.5 million of him. But he also snagged some deals. Photo by Angie Six — Lots of Luck for Ryan McDowell’s team – $103.5 million of him. But he also snagged some deals. Photo by Angie Six

Once a month during the season, I’ll be writing about the Reality Sports Online Keeper Salary Cap League that I started with 13 other football writers. If you’re seeking a great GM experience that offers the complexities of realistic contract negotiations and salary cap ramifications in an easy-to-use league management system that does all the work for you, join an RSO league. Use the promotion code RSP20%OFF to earn a 20 percent discount.

Pre-draft strategy

Heading into this auction, I was a bit anxious, mainly about venturing to a new site. That was a bit out of my comfort zone, but the team at RSO could not have made that any easier. Following the tutorials they provided, I felt comfortable with the software and couldn’t wait to get started.

My usual plan with auctions is to target a few specific players at each position and go after them. I typically don’t study average auction values or even assign an estimated budget because auctions seem to each be so different. It is difficult to compare one to another and I think it is crucial to be able to make snap decisions as the value of players is adjusted based on when they are nominated and the remaining funds available to teams.

Entering this auction, what I focused most on was the limited use of long-term contracts. I knew I wanted to use my four-year deal and likely both of my three-year contracts on quarterbacks and wide receivers. I narrowed my list of targets down even further with the potential long-term deals in mind.

McDowell’s Team

Mike Glennon (TB) R

Matt Scott (JAC) R

Andrew Luck (IND) 4 years/$103.5 million

Ryan Tannehill (MIA) 2 years/$9 million

Ryan Mallett (NE) 1 year/$500,000

Giovani Bernard (CIN) R

Latavius Murray (OAK) R

Jason Snelling (ATL) R 1 year/$500,000

Chris Johnson (TEN) 1 year/$12 million

Stevan Ridley (NE) 2 years/$16 million

LaRod Stephens-Howling (PIT) 1 year/$500,000

Danario Alexander (SD) 1 year/$3.5 million

Stephen Hill (NYJ) 1 year/$1.5 million

Justin Blackmon (JAC) 2 years/$10.5 million

Nick Toon (NO) 1 year/$500,000

Josh Gordon (CLE) 3 years/$19 million

Jacoby Jones (BAL) 1 year/$500,000

James Jones (GB) 1 year/$7.5 million

Hakeem Nicks (NYG) 3 years/$54 million

Julian Edelman (NE) R

Rob Housler (ARI) 1 year/$6 million

Joel Dreessen (DEN) 1 year/$500,000

Virgil Green (DEN) 1 year/$500,000

Josh Brown (NYG) 1 year/$1.5 million

Mason Crosby (GB) 1 year/$500,000

Packers Defense 1 year/$500,000

Falcons Defense 1 year/$500,000

Raiders Defense 1 year/$500,000

Jordan Reed (WAS) R

Joel Dreessen (DEN) R

Virgil Green (DEN) R

Rob Housler (ARI)

Dennis Pitta (BAL)

Josh Brown (NYG)

Mason Crosby (GB) R

ATL Team Defense (ATL)

GB Team Defense (GB) R

OAK Team Defense (OAK) R

– See more at: http://www.realitysportsonline.com/Rosters.aspx#sthash.c38dg4Tn.dpuf

How did the auction unfold for you?

Would Gordon be the best receiver of the 2013 Draft class? Cleveland thinks so. Photo by Erik Daniel Drost. — I wanted Gordon, but was tentative with the first nomination while feeling out the process. McDowell capitalized. Photo by Erik Daniel Drost.

After nabbing the first nominated player, Browns wide receiver Josh Gordon on a three-year deal for $19 million, I began to experience some technical difficulty. I had to close the site and start again, which led to my draft board listing all available players to fail. While this was an inconvenience, it was a small hurdle. Next, I had trouble with my home internet, which ultimately led to me speeding across the street to my office in the middle of the auction.

Once I was setup there, it was not long until one of my top targets, Colts quarterback Andrew Luck was nominated. I was engaged in a bidding war and ultimately overpaid, but got my guy on a four-year deal. I recently stated that Luck might be the safest player to own in a dynasty league, so he is a great option to tag with the lone four-year contract.

Next, I chose to focus on grabbing some deals at running back. I knew with the rapid change from year to year at the position, I did not want to give long-term deals. My next three wins brought me Chris Johnson, Rashard Mendenhall and Stevan Ridley for a total of $31 million, including Ridley on a two-year deal (McDowell has since traded away Mendenhall to Matt Papson’s team for Dennis Pitta).

With some depth at running back, it was time to turn back to the wideouts and I grabbed Hakeem Nicks (3 years/$54 million), Justin Blackmon (2 years/$10.5 million) and James Jones (1 year/$7.5 million). I loved the balance of my team at this point and went on to add my defenses, kickers and young depth at each position. With the auction winding down and my team running out of money, I still had no tight end. I targeted a pair of the most hyped young tight ends of the off-season, Jordan Cameron and Rob Housler. After Bryan Fontaine pushed my limits on Cameron, I focused on Housler and severely overpaid, giving him a one year deal for $6 million.

Because I had acquired solid running back depth and did not feel comfortable with Housler as my starter, I later dealt Mendenhall in a package deal to acquire Ravens tight end Dennis Pitta, who should be a much more reliable option as my starting tight end.

Best Deals (Millions in years)

Josh Gordon (3 years/$19 million)
Stevan Ridley (2 years/$13 million)
Justin Blackmon (2 years/$10.5 million)

Worst (Millions in years)

Andrew Luck (4 years/$103.5 million)
Rob Housler (1 year/$6 million)

Good deals for other owners

Jeff Tefertiller's deal with RG3 has McDowell feeling some buyer's remorse with Luck. Photo by Mike Davis. — Jeff Tefertiller’s deal with RG3 has McDowell feeling some buyer’s remorse with Luck. Photo by Mike Davis.

(Lance Zierlein) Anquan Boldin (1 year/$4 million)- Boldin should be a solid starter in this format and came very cheap.
(Rivers McCown) Doug Martin (3 years/$67.5 million)- The Martin nomination came early and I think everyone was still feeling things out. Well done!
(Jeff Tefertiller) Robert Griffin III (3 years/$46 million)- This deal really makes me re-think my Luck contract.
(Sigmund Bloom) Martellus Bennett (1 year/$0.5 million)- Again, we all fell asleep at the wheel. This would have been a much better choice for me than Housler.

Questionable deals for owners (IMHO)

(Bryan Fontaine) Isaiah Pead (4 years/$7 million)- Giving a possible RBBC the only four-year deal is too risky for me. If it works out, Fontaine is getting a steal though.
(Jason Wood) Jared Cook (3 years/$5.5 million)= Again, Cook is too unproven and I would not want to give a mid-level tight end one of the valuable three-year deals.
(Lance Zierlein) TY Hilton (4 years/$26.5 million)- I really like Hilton, he just would not have been my choice to give the lone four-year contract.

Fave team other than mine

Jeff Tefertiller- Jeff was the talk of the auction early on as he threw out some big contracts early. Of course, that meant that he had to sit and wait for some deals at the end of the auction, but the end result looks good to me. He is loaded with studs at almost every starting position, including Brandon Marshall, Julio Jones, Ray Rice, Robert Griffin III, Pierre Garcon and Torrey Smith. Of course, Jeff will need to find a RB2 and a solid tight end, but in a fourteen team league, there will always be some holes.

Impressions of Reality Sports Online

As I mentioned, I had some early technical issues, but I think that is mostly due to my disappointing Time Warner internet service. The RSO software was smooth and easy to catch on to. It offered a service that I had never envisioned and challenged me to think on my feet, as I not only bid on the services of players, but assigned them contracts at the same time. I would certainly recommend other fantasy players to try out the RSO platform.

Short-term / Long-term View of Team

Stop me if you’ve heard this…but I really like my team for both the short-term and long-term. Although my team is filled with young players, I feel comfortable relying on most of those as starters for the 2013 season, including players like Luck, Gordon and Blackmon. At the same time, the youth of those players offers upside and promise for future success.

After the auction, I was really liking my depth at wide receiver, especially for a fourteen team league, and then Gordon and Blackmon were both suspended multiple games. As a result, the first two to four weeks will be a balancing act, but I still have Jones, Alexander and Nicks to lean on.

I am looking forward to the challenge of managing the contracts this time next year, as well as future seasons. It will be crucial to remain active and dedicated to the league in order to succeed.