Posts tagged RSP

Should I Stay or Should I Go? RB Charles Sims – Initial Thoughts

Charles Sims lacks the same top-end speed as Darren McFadden but the many positives of his style are similar to the Raiders back. Photo by June 10459.
Charles Sims lacks the same top-end speed as Darren McFadden but the many positives of his style are similar to the Raiders back. Photo by June 10459.

University of Houston running back Charles Sims has been in limbo this spring, but one thing seems certain: He’s leaving the Cougars. One option is this summer’s NFL Supplemental Draft. Another is  is to transfer programs so he can increase his draft stock. Switching schools is a decision I believe Sims will make and I think it’s a good one.

Most see the logic here, but there is still a surprising undercurrent of disappointment among fans when a player chooses to leave his current school for another college – especially on his own volition. College football is business disguised as amateur sport, but it’s instances like this where it appears that the responsibility of maintaining the nobility of college football’s “rah-rah” veneer is on the amateur rather than the professionals running the game.

Emotional ties to a college still run deep and I don’t blame alumni for feeling this way. For some it’s an affront to their sense of loyalty to see a scholarship player “ditch” a program like Sims. However, I think this underscores a disconnect between the way alumni and fans view student-athletes and the rest of the student population.

We don’t question a student’s decision to enroll at an MBA program at a different school after he earns an undergraduate degree in business. This is the natural path for a student to maximize his earning potential in the job market. No one questions his loyalty.

Yet some don’t see it the same way with student athletes.  Sims – who has earned his degree – has another year of eligibility in the sport  he hopes to play as his full-time job. Just like the business student enrolling in an MBA program, Sims has strong chance to help himself in the professional football job market if he gets another year of training.

The running back  is doing the right thing by studying the job market,  getting feedback on his talents, and weighing the possibility of going to a higher profile football program that can help him get another year of preparation for the pros.  No disrespect to the Cougars football program, but Sims understands that the perception of playing in the Big East, Big Ten, or Pac-12 carries more weight with many NFL organizations.

Houston’s athletic program will allow Sims to transfer, but ESPN’s Joe Schad says the running back may leave only if he avoids the following programs:

  • Any school in the American Athletic Conference
  • Any school on Houston’s 2013 schedule
  • Any school in the state of Texas

Schad’s source connected to the Cougars program says Sims is looking at Cal and West Virginia.  Both situations make sense – Coaches Sonny Dykes and Dana Holgorsen are using the Houston Air Raid offense and working in conferences where Sims will get to play better competition on a bigger stage. There’s also incentive to head west: Cal’s projected starter at running back Brendan Bigelow is recovering from spring knee surgery.

Purely from the standpoint of raising one’s draft stock, Russell Wilson and Charles Sims have a lot in common right now.  Where it differs is what I think ‘the game’ (agents, trainers, and other people who make money off athletes) of pro football feeds a quarterback and a running back.

Quarterbacks tend to have longer careers so there’s often encouragement for them to stay in school another year.  They get to gain another year of maturity as a young adult and work at their craft on a stage where they continue to get in-game experience. Some believe this line of reasoning is just a front that the money-draft status wasn’t strong enough to go.

They may have a point, but as a parent of a young adult in college I can tell you that the potential for growth during the ages 18-22 is tremendous.  Every year can feel like a person packed in three. My kid left for college a young adult who knew everything, but really didn’t know anything. I see this all the time with students I interview at Georgia.

On paper, their credentials and accomplishments are fantastic. Many go on to earn multiple undergraduate degrees, major athletic achievements, Wall Street job offers, successful entrepreneurial ventures. I’ve even seen two Rhodes Scholars pass through here.

They say all the right things, but they’re playing a role.

They’re not phony; many of them are ‘trying life on’ the same way we go to a department store to shop for clothing. My daughter chose fashion design as her course of study while working two jobs. She’s naturally a math-oriented person, but she has been making clothing for several years and has a strong creative streak.

Anyone who has earned an arts degree that requires applied application of the study knows, working two jobs and undertaking a course of study with twice the number of classes and time-consuming projects as the average undergraduate major – who will ultimately go into a less competitive field with more earning potential – is a tough road.

I’ve been there. At some point you look up from the workload around the middle of your sophomore year and see future doctors, lawyers, and bankers taking 3-4 classes a semester and still having the time of their lives. My daughter did the same thing.

However, I’ve seen my daughter learn a great deal about managing her time, her money, and resolving interpersonal conflicts. These are real life skills that you can tell a kid about, show them how to do it as the model in your everyday life, and guide their initial decisions with constructive reinforcement and practice, but until they are doing it without a net, the lessons don’t stick.

In the past year, Chandler decided to change her major and transfer schools. Since that time she’s worked a lot, saved a lot, and planned her next steps better than I imagined. The difference in how she approaches her life this summer and last is like seeing a different person with the same personality. When my wife and I think about how much Chandler has learned during this time it feels a lot more time has passed than what’s on the calendar.

These are reasons why I think it makes sense that most college quarterbacks should stay in school. That additional year of learning to manage real life benefits them and their future NFL team.  Ask Pete Carrol about Marc Sanchez.

Running back is another story. It seems this position is encouraged to leave early. I think there’s a lot of selling based on fear.

What if you get hurt . . . 

You could lose your job to a underclassman . . . 

The average NFL career for a running back is a lot shorter than you think . . . 

All of these things about competition, injury, and career length are true. For every junior like Stevan Ridley, there’s three like Tellis Redman, Danny Ware and Tony Hollings. While he had to announce he was leaving Houston to begin the process of shopping other athletic programs, it appears he has done a good job of taking a deliberate approach.  And I think it would be a wise decision for him to return to school.

Sims has the talent to develop into an NFL starter. However, I do think another year at a program where the expectations will be higher, the surrounding talent a little better, and the stage a little bigger will help reinforce a healthy amount of confidence and maturity that he’ll need to develop into a successful pro.

Up Next: The film on Sims and why I think his style makes him a disciple of the Demarco Murray and Darren McFadden school.

For analysis of skill players in this year’s draft class, download the 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio.The 2014 RSP will available April 1 and if you pre-order before February 10, you get a 10 percent discount. Better yet, if you’re a fantasy owner the 56-page Post-Draft Add-on comes with the 2012 – 2014 RSPs at no additional charge and available for download within a week after the NFL Draft. Best, yet, 10 percent of every sale is donated to Darkness to Light to combat sexual abuse. You can purchase past editions of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio for just $9.95 apiece.

Read Listens Views 6/7/2013

I've built a Hot Tub Time Machine for Palmer, but Bruce Arians might have done me better. Photo by Keith Allison.
I’ve built a Hot Tub Time Machine for Palmer, but Bruce Arians might have done me better. Check out my thoughts on the Cardinals offense in 2013 at Footballguys Photo by Keith Allison.

Views

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A Message From Chet Gresham: Fake Football Writing Contest

Hello all you fake football writers and aspiring writers! Welcome to our 2013 writing contest. We’ll have prizes, guest judges, and a whole lot of fake football ideas being thrown around in a nice and orderly fashion. First off, let me thank our sponsors DraftDay and FantasyPros. Both great sites that I use more than the average obsessed fake footballer. Second off, you may ask, what’s in this for me!?  Details here.

Thanks

I’f you’re new to the blog, I make it a habit to post a mix of content on Friday and thank my readers for hanging around.

I don’t know when he broached this idea but Ryan Riddle conducted an informal survey of his Twitter followers, asking them to name “the best football sites out there.” Riddle didn’t specify what type of content – fantasy, stats, scouting, news, or strategy – he just wanted what first came to mind. Each person gave their top three sites in order.

Riddle released a list of 71 sites this week and the list is a strong group. I didn’t know about the survey so I didn’t vote. However I was glad there were folks who voted for sites like Coach Huey and Blitzology – two lesser known sites to the general public, but excellent resources for a lot of writers contributing content to sites higher on the list.

I expected to see  Football Outsiders and Footballguys place high on the list and readers didn’t disappoint – rating them 3rd and 7th among all sites, respectively. I was delighted to see that this site you’re reading placed 24th overall – tied with ESPN, X and O Lab, Draft Calc, and Cat Scratch Reader – and even earned a first-place vote.

I didn’t expect to see the RSP blog on the list, so it was a pleasant surprise to be in the top-third of a list as esteemed as this one. Thank you all for following my blog, sharing what you like, and buying the Rookie Scouting Portfolio publication.

If you haven’t bought the RSP before, I can say with pride that you’ll get as much out of it as I put into it – and I put everything I can into it. My readers will tell you they love it. If you’re on the fence, I am confident that you’ll realize this is one of those cases where there’s little hype to what I’m saying here. Plus, I donate 10 percent of each sale to Darkness to Light, a non-profit whose mission is to prevent and combat sexual abuse through community training and awareness.

Download the RSP now and know that with your purchase, you also get access to the 2013 Post-Draft publication that comes with it. At the very least, follow this blog click on the link on the left to follow and you’ll receive email updates when I post new articles that give you a taste of the analysis and detail put into the RSP publication. Then consider supporting the site (and do yourself a favor at the same time) by downloading the publication.

Football Reads

If the name Cian Fahey sounds familiar to you but can’t place it, setting in for some nice reads from the football writer who has been a part of two RSP Writers Projects and has most helpful providing updated spreadsheets tot the writers so we didn’t have too many duplicate draft picks. What I admire about Fahey as a football writer is that he isn’t afraid to take a stance that might earn him criticism, but it’s not something he does for the sake of attracting eyeballs to his work. You can follow Cian on Twitter at @Cianaf. 

Moreover, I recommend checking out his blog Pre-Snap Reads. Here are a few pieces I enjoyed reading this week:

Bonus Football Read

  • George, Visger, The Damage Zone – Patrick Hruby’s profile on Visger is a heartbreaking read, but he mainlines the truth about pro football players and the complex relationship they have with the sport. 

Non-Football Reads

  • Animal Behaviorist: We’ll Soon Have Devices That Let Us Talk to Our Pets – My wife once told me when were dating that my (now deceased) cat Mookie was a sweet guy and very smart, but warned me that if he ever started talking she was leaving and not coming back. I think this also goes for my cat Zookie, who she once told to “get a job” after shooing him off the new couch and two days later when I saw him sitting next to her, she explained that he “got a job” (he brought her a bird) so she had no choice but to indulge him. Still, if a device becomes readily available I doubt it will ever be allowed in our house. Plus, I’m pretty sure Zookie curses and speaks in slang neither of us would understand.
  • When The Beautiful Game Turns Ugly – A must-read by Wright Thompson. It’s not a comforting story, but it’s a great one because as much as the world has changed the elements that generate hate remain in place and easy to exploit.
  • Michael Jordan Has Not Left the Building – When you read a piece about an icon like Jordan and almost feel sorry for him because of his difficulty turning off the competitive switch as well as gaining insight to what makes him far more human now than what we were allowed to see in the `80s and `90s,  you know Thompson did a fine job.
  • Six Key Foods to Help Regulate Sleep – Former GM Ted Sundquist has a football site. I’m sure there’s other fine material to mine, but this piece about food and regulating sleep patterns by guest writer Christine Jones caught my eye first.

Views

I didn’t hear about this controversy regarding the Cheerios commercial this week (I was too busy reading about hatred and stupidity in Italy) to notice that we had our own example of parts of our country not quite ready to look at the world as a collection of human beings as individuals.

[youtube=http://youtu.be/kYofm5d5Xdw]

Great commercial and good for you, General Mills for standing behind it.

Listen-View

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If you’re not used to the constant pause-rewind of football tape this could leave you jittery, but the chance to listen to Alex Gibbs talk about zone blocking is good stuff. H/T Chris Brown.

Coming Soon

  • More 2014 prospect articles
  • More 2013 camp watch pieces
  • A study on quarterbacks with dynasty leagues in mind at Footballguys

RSO Team: Football Outsiders’ Rivers McCown

It's a bad idea to evaluate a smile the way you critique his release. Photo by PDA.Photo
Any team with Cam Newton as the quarterback is primed for big weeks. Rivers McCown of Football Outsiders gives you the rest of the scoop on his RSO squad from last month’s auction. Photo by PDA.Photo

Rivers McCown makes my Futures column look better. He makes all the Football Outsiders look better – at least in print. McCown participated in our recent Reality Sports Online writer draft. This is an auction league that includes multi-year contracts. Go here to learn more about the league.  You can join a league for $9.99 as an individual or form a league with your friends. Go to www.realitysportsonline.com and use the promotion code RSP20%OFF, you’ll earn a 20 percent discount. 

Pre-Draft Strategy

I actually didn’t have time to come in with much of a strategy. I rather liked how it turned out, and I had a few big ideas going through my head when creating the team (get settled at RB early and target older receivers with the belief that they’ll be cheaper), but I can’t attest that I had some grand, unified theory come true. In retrospect, I would have aimed for one very good, young receiver with my four-year deal rather than David Wilson, but I’m not dissatisfied.

For a time, D.J. Harper was considered the best back at Boise State - and Doug Martin was on the team . Photo by Football Schedule.
McCown thought his deal on Martin was such a steal that the league was going to roll back the auction, but he made off in the night with a top RB at a great contract. Photo by Football Schedule.

How the Auction Unfolded

Quarterback Yrs $ Running Back Yrs $
Cam Newton (CAR)
3 49.0
Doug Martin (TB)
3 67.5
Josh Freeman (TB) R
1 3.5
David Wilson (NYG)
4 56.5
Chase Daniel (KC) R**
1 0.5
Stepfan Taylor (ARI) R
3 R
Theo Riddick (DET) R
3 R
Willis McGahee (DEN) R
1 2.5
Montario Hardesty (CLE) R
1 1.5
Daniel Thomas (MIA) R
1 1.0
Michael Smith (TB) R
1 0.5
Jeremy Stewart (OAK) R**
1 0.5
Wide Receiver Yrs $ Tight End Yrs $
Andre Johnson (HOU)
2 32.5
Jermichael Finley (GB)
2 6.0
Reggie Wayne (IND)
1 15.0
Tyler Eifert (CIN) R
3 R
Lance Moore (NO)
1 4.5
Fred Davis (WAS) R
1 1.5
Mohamed Sanu (CIN) R
1 2.5
Rueben Randle (NYG) R
1 2.5
Malcom Floyd (SD)
1 2.5
Jarius Wright (MIN) R
1 1.5
T.J. Graham (BUF) R**
1 0.5
Nate Burleson (DET) R
1 0.5
Justin Hunter (TEN) R
3 R
Ryan Swope (ARI) R
3 R
Kicker Yrs $ Defense Yrs $
Rob Bironas (TEN) R
1 0.5
Chicago
1 0.5
Ryan Succop (KC)
1 0.5
Pittsburgh
1 0.5

**These players were acquired via free agency after the draft. 

I think I got Doug Martin for a song because nobody was awake yet – I was surprised that didn’t get rewound when it happened. That enabled me to get a little more aggressive with the other guys I had targeted. I think the two biggest mistakes I made was not getting a third “established” back (because who knows what will happen with McGahee, Ball, Hillman, etc.) and losing a bidding war with Mike Clay for Antonio Brown when he was the last truly elite receiver (in my mind) on the board. I recovered and garnered a lot of possible WR3 guys, but none of them have Brown’s upside and I could have spent less on the margins to bring him in without losing much.

The quarterback shuffle was the most interesting part of the league for me. I think there were some good bargains with the older quarterbacks, but I was dead-set on a young guy. I knew that a Matt Waldman league was not a place where Russell Wilson would go cheap. Colin Kaepernick got thrown out early and was surprisingly expensive. Luck got thrown out early and was ridiculously expensive. So I hitched my wagon to Cam Newton and went a little over my initial range. If Carolina continues to involve him in the run game, he’s the one quarterback with the body I’d bet on to survive it, so I was less hesitant to spend on him than I would have been with some of the other young quarterbacks.

Best/Worst Deals

While I disagree with McCown about the value of Finley relative to Davis, the recent non-playoff productivity isn't that far away. Photo by Elvis Kennedy.
While I disagree with McCown about the value of Finley relative to Davis, the recent non-playoff productivity isn’t that far away. Photo by Elvis Kennedy.

Martin is my best deal, clearly. I also though Finley was a decent bargain at his price given how guys like Vernon Davis and Tony Gonzalez went for at least $8 million. My least favorite bid was for Fred Davis, who I was just trying to bump up – $1.5 million isn’t a killer, and there’s upside, but it’s injury-dependent. I’m happy he’s my third tight end.

Good Deals By Other Writers

McCown thought Sigmund Bloom's acquisition of LeSean McCoy was one of the best deals of the Reality Sports Auction. Photo by Matthew Straubmuller.
McCown thought Sigmund Bloom’s acquisition of LeSean McCoy was one of the best deals of the Reality Sports Auction. Photo by Matthew Straubmuller.

I am a big fan of Sigmund Bloom’s LeSean McCoy deal – I think it fit the basic scale of my Martin deal, but was just a little more expensive. I thought Jim Day struck gold with Eric Decker for three years, $25 million. Antonio Gates for $1 million is a deal that made my jaw drop.

Honestly, outside of the Gronkowski deal, I thought Bloom had a few other killer deals, too. Jordy Nelson was a sneaky steal at $32.5 million for 3 years, but put me in the camp that wouldn’t have paid more than the league minimum for Sam Bradford.

And as good as A.J. Green is, I think he’s going to have a hard time living up to the $92.5 million, 3-year deal that Lance Zierlein signed him to while running his auction at a Little League game.

Favorite Team (Other Than Yours)

I think Bloom and Bob Harris put together the most complete teams. They have the strongest receiving corps. Harris needs a second running back to step up and Bloom needs Roethlisberger to stay healthy all season. If either one of those things break right they have tough teams with a lot of depth.

Assessment of the Reality Sports Online Platform

The functionality was fine. I wish I understood a little more about how the top bid algorithm was decided, but that’s just my inner nerd.

Your Team’s Short-Term/Long-Term Outlook

Short-term, I think this team has a great chance as long as the running backs stay healthy. Long-term, it really depends on how the receiving situation shakes out. Can Mohamed Sanu make me feel good about that two-year deal? Is the lack of depth on the market going to make it hard for me to replace Reggie Wayne? Am I going to have a chance at Marqise Lee? Haha. That’s the area where the turnover is going to be hard to predict right now, but I’d rather have holes to fill there than at the other spots.

RSO Team: Fantasy Throwdown’s Mike MacGregor

When Morris could conceivably be your No.3 or No.4 RB by year's end, you're deep at the position - perhaps too deep in this league (if there is such a thing. Photo by Keith Allison.
When Morris could conceivably be your No.3 or No.4 RB by year’s end, you’re deep at the position – perhaps too deep in this league (if there is such a thing. Photo by Keith Allison.
Mike and I (to some extent) run Fantasy Throwdown, a one-on-one, flexible draft, weekly fantasy game that is intuitive, addictive, and free to play. Mike provided a complete writeup of his RSO team . I’ve added a bit from the peanut gallery. If you go to www.realitysportsonline.com and use the promotion code RSP20%OFF, you’ll earn a 20 percent discountYou can join a league for $9.99 as an individual or form a league with your friends.

Pre-draft strategy

First off, I had a conflict the night of the auction and had to hand the reigns over to RSO’s “men behind the madness”, Stephen and Matt, to handle my auction for the first 1-2 hours until I could get online. This was of course going to be the most crucial time in the auction when the highest ranked and highest paid players are bid on. I was bummed to miss it, but thankfully, I was in good hands with the guys who have the most RSO experience.

I started my auction prep by estimating the dollar values for all players. This started as simply finding average auction values (AAV) from the prior year, attaching the QB1 AAV to my #1 ranked QB this year, QB2 AAV to #2 ranked QB, RB1 AAV to my #1 ranked RB, etc., etc., and grossing up all values for the cap in this league. Then I made manual adjustments under the impression that most of the owners in this league will bid more aggressively on stud players, and save less for middle of the road and lower ranked players (creating greater separation from top to bottom than the AAV indicated).

The total dollars attributed to all players in my estimated draftable player pool had to be roughly equivalent to sum of available cap dollars for all teams, after deducting rookie contracts, about $10 million per team left over for in-season acquisitions and a minimum contract value for a pair of kickers and defense. I figured I had $101 million to spend on 21 roster spots, or an average of $4.8 million per player.

At this point with my player rankings and estimated dollar amounts, I highlighted players I would be willing to drop a 4-year or 3-year deal on, plus players I had no interest in acquiring. Not that the don’t acquire players are bad players, but just that I felt the risk and expected cost would be higher than I was willing to pay. Examples of players that made this list included Rob Gronkowski, Arian Foster, Chris Johnson, Darren McFadden, Percy Harvin, Tony Romo and Matt Stafford.

I discussed with Stephen there were certain RB I’d be willing to drop a multi-year deal on, but preferably we want to attach our 4-year and 3-year deals primarily to the WR and QB positions. I made a priority list of 13 players to give a 4-year contract to, feeling that my approach to the RSO auction would be (a) decide how many years you want to give this player, and (b) see how the bidding goes at that length of contract.

One of only a half-dozen guys I could unequivocally see as an upgrade to Alfred Morris Photo by Mike Pettigano.
Trent Richardson – One of only a half-dozen guys I could unequivocally see as an upgrade to Alfred Morris Photo by Mike Pettigano.

Here is the 4-year list:

  1. Aaron Rodgers
  2. Andrew Luck
  3. A.J. Green
  4. Trent Richardson
  5. Aaron Hernandez
  6. Jimmy Graham
  7. Julio Jones
  8. Calvin Johnson
  9. Russell Wilson
  10. Matt Ryan
  11. Randall Cobb
  12. David Wilson
  13. Doug Martin
And then I made a similar 3-year priority list:
  1. Anyone left on 4-year list
  2. Peyton Manning
  3. Adrian Peterson
  4. Victor Cruz
  5. Pierre Garcon
  6. Demaryius Thomas
  7. Larry Fitzgerald
  8. Cheaper guys (assuming already have a lot of $ tied up in 4-year/3-year deals)
  9. Anyone else highlighted on rankings tab

And from there I pretty much left it to Stephen and Matt, knowing I would be logging on in a frenzy in the middle of the auction in catch-up mode.

MacGregor’s Team
Quarterback Years $ Running Back Years $ Wide Receiver Years $
Tom Brady (NE) 3  $40.0 Trent Richardson (CLE) 4 $97.0 Vincent Jackson (TB) 2 $29.5
Andy Dalton (CIN) R 1  $2.0 Alfred Morris (WAS) 3 $47.0 Brian Hartline (MIA) 1 $1.5
Christian Ponder (MIN) R 2  $2.0 Le’Veon Bell (PIT) R 3 R Jeremy Kerley (NYJ) R 1 $1.5
Ryan Nassib (NYG) R 3  R Lamar Miller (MIA) R 2 $25.0 Nate Washington (TEN) R 1 $1.5
Matt Cassel (MIN) R 1  $0.5 Ray Graham (HOU) R 3 R Brandon Gibson (MIA) R 1 $0.5
Kerwynn Williams (IND) R 3 R Andre Roberts (ARI) 1 $0.5
Roy Helu (WAS) R 1 $0.5 Kenny Stills (NO) R 3 R
Dion Lewis (CLE) R 1 $0.5 Donald Jones (NE) R 1 $0.5
David Nelson (CLE) R 1 $0.5
Mike Thomas (DET) R 1 $0.5
Tight End Years $ Kicker Years $ Defense Years $
Tony Gonzalez (ATL) 1 $13.0 Blair Walsh (MIN) 1 $0.5 Arizona 1 $0.5
Brent Celek (PHI) R 1 $1.0 Justin Tucker (BAL) R 1 $0.5 Carolina 1 $0.5
Brandon Myers (NYG) 1 $2.0

How did the auction unfold for you

When I got logged into the auction, I was flush at RB and the guys got a great deal on Tom Brady relative to some other QB contracts. Brady is on a 3-year deal for $40 million (2013 salary of $12.5 million). I had an estimated bid for Brady at $18 million for 2013. Comparing to some of the other QB contracts (Kaepernick $41 million for 2 years; Newton $49 for 3; Rodgers $62 for 3, Luck north of $100 for 4), I was in good shape with this deal.

Can’t complain at all about the quality of the RB on the roster: Trent Richardson, Alfred Morris, Lamar Miller plus Le’Veon Bell from the rookie draft. My concern is too many dollars and, more importantly, too many years tied up at the RB position, which has the most annual turnover. Richardson has a 4-year, Morris a 3-year and Miller a 2-year. I am a believer in Morris – honestly, I wouldn’t have been willing to give him a 3-year otherwise – but there is still something unsettling about a 3-year deal on a Mike Shanahan RB, especially when he’s already used one of this good years.

I was definitely in catch-up mode when I got logged in, with quality players getting nominated one after the other. I can’t remember the last draft I was in where I didn’t have a running list of players crossed off my rankings, so I needed to take a good look through the available player lists to see how deep the remaining positions were, especially WR. To buy time, I added some kickers and defense to my queue, and I got them at a minimum contract.

WR were definitely getting thin for my needs having to fill 3-4 starter spots. I aggressively went after Vincent Jackson and Tony Gonzalez became a must-have on a one-year deal. I estimated his value at $17 million and got him for $13. I should have gone even more aggressive at WR but got a little gun shy with still many roster spots to fill. With WR bottoming out and some quality TE still available, I figured I would spend for better backups there who would likely man my flex starter spot, while taking a shotgun approach to the WR position trying to tag unheralded guys in situations with upside.

I stayed pretty close to my target of saving $10 million for in-season, but the way the auction unfolded, I should have spent more of that considering most guys did not save that much, and I can’t necessarily win any player I like off waivers given one team abandoned the auction at midnight and has $60 million in available cap space. A much better WR2 and this team would feel a lot better. As it stands, a RB for WR trade could be in the works either before the season starts, or once the NFL gets underway, but in that case we’ll need each of our RB to start the season strong.

Waldman’s Thoughts

I think the running back depth will work out in MacGregor’s favor because he will have great trade bait – especially if Andy Dalton plays well enough to sneak into the low-end of the top-10 and he can dangle a player like Tom Brady. My belief is that wide receivers are the easiest players to acquire. If MacGregor has the hardest position to get a quality player and winds up with four of them on his roster, he’ll be able to trade one of them easily for a good starter at his position of need. He might also get by with a tight end as a flex-option this year. Andre Roberts and Jeremy Kerley aren’t players you want as your No.2 and No.2 receivers at the beginning of the year, but they have the talent to provide sustainable production.

Best Deals (Millions in years)
If Brady truly is "bad WR-proof" he'll be a fine value even with MacGregor's long-term deal.  Photo by Jeffrey Beall.
If Brady truly is “bad WR-proof” he’ll be a fine value even with MacGregor’s long-term deal. Photo by Jeffrey Beall.
  • Tom Brady: $40 for 3
  •  Tony Gonzalez: $13 for 1 – Compared to the 2013 salary for Jimmy Graham ($26) and Gronkowski ($18), happy to get Gonzo who looked absolutely stellar last season. He’s an ageless wonder.
  •  Trent Richardson: $97 for 4 – If you’re going to give a 4-year deal to a RB, this is the guy to give it to, and at a 2013 salary of only $21 he’s a great deal relative to what other top RB are being paid this season.
  •  Andy Dalton: $2 for 1 – I don’t love Andy Dalton for fantasy, but given the talent they’ve surrounded him with and his age I was shocked to land him as my backup for a mere $2.
Worst (Millions in years)
  • Christian Ponder: $2 for 2 – Did I really put a 2-year deal on Ponder? Geez, don’t remember that. Think I waited too long to use my last 2-year deal. At least a small dead cap hit next year if Ponder craps out.
  •  Alfred Morris: 47 for 3
  • Lamar Miller: $25 for 2 – I don’t mind either (Morris or Miller) deal individually, but I’d rather have the money or contract of one of these guys invested in any one of a bunch of wide receivers instead.
Good deals for other owners
  • (Matt Waldman) Cecil Shorts: $18.5 for 4 – I had to step away from the computer but definitely would have driven the price up on Shorts, although perhaps couldn’t compete with a 4-year deal.
  •  (Rivers McCown) Rueben Randle: $2.5 for 1 – Cheap for a young high upside player. Surprised no one dropped a multi-year deal on Randle at this price. Michael Floyd got a 4-year deal, Kendall Wright signed a 2-year.
  •  (Ryan McDowell) Josh Gordon: $19 for 3 – Like this kid and consider this a good deal over three years. We’ll see how the Browns’ QB play pans out.
Questionable deals for owners (IMHO)
According to MacGregor, Jim Day has great QB depth, but at a great cost photo by Football Schedule.
According to MacGregor, Jim Day has great QB depth, but at a great cost photo by Football Schedule.
  • (Lance Zierlein) Chris Ivory: $15.5 for 3 – Ivory screams stop-gap to me. Can’t imagine him paying off in Year 3 and I wouldn’t even feel comfortable with a 2-year deal.
  •  (Jim Day) Peyton Manning, $31.5 for 2 + Russell Wilson, $63.5 for 4 – A lot tied up in the QB position. Actually, really like the Manning contract, but can’t justify tying up this much cap for one starter spot. Some plans for wheeling and dealing perhaps, but Jim has no cap room, so he’s in a bad negotiating position.
  •  (Fontaine) Jordan Cameron: $5 for 1 – A big premium amongst of sea of TE with similar expectations. If he hits, great, but think the hype train got a hold of this bidding. On the plus side, Bryan landed Antonio Gates for a mere $1. Cheap bet for a bounce back from the former stud TE.

Fave team other than mine

I’m split between Tefertiller (he needs an RG3 recovery and a 2nd RB) and Fontaine (He believes in Pead, but I don’t really and he needs Bradshaw to sign and play big role). I love the starting wide receivers for each of these teams. I may have WR envy.

Impressions of Reality Sports Online

I Really like RSO. The website is clean and the overall auction runs well. I might not want to play in more than one RSO league, given the complexity and time involved. The auction is going to be long and there isn’t a way around that.  If you are doing a league like this, you want it to be fairly deep. (Editor’s note: As the commissioner of this league, I can tell you that if you draft 20 spots and keep the nomination and bid times at a minimum, you can finish in 3-4 hours, tops and if you adjust the number of multi-year contracts each team can award, you don’t need a deep league – it’s a flexible setup).

Heck, actually, I do already play in another dynasty with very similar contracts and rules. We use a combination of ESPN (for their auction software), MFL (to run the league in-season) and spreadsheet to track the contracts all year. Given that, I can see why these guys put together this website! [Last editor’s note: See what I’m talking about . . . ]

Short-term / Long-term View of Team

I love my team for this season. I would love to lobby for RB to be included in the flex position, but I know that is a non-starter with the Commish. Going to pray my RB stay healthy and productive (at least 3 of the 4) for the bulk of their contracts and then long-term should be in good shape. How rookies pan out will ultimately create separation between the top teams and bottom teams in the league, because they will be on cheap contracts. Liked my initial pick of Bell, but didn’t love the rest of my rookie draft.

Remember, if you go to www.realitysportsonline.com and use the promotion code RSP20%OFF, you’ll earn a 20 percent discount. You can join a league for $9.99 as an individual or form a league with your friends.

Reads Listens Views 5/24/13

I took a short hiatus from Reads Listens Views this month. It has nothing to do with the draft being done – I have a magazine assignment about the design of a 306,000 square-foot building at my day gig and a magazine to wrap up by June 15. If you’re new to the RSP blog, Reads Listens Views is a Friday feature that is my way of referring readers to other football writers, fantasy links, and things I found interesting away from the sport.

Listens

[youtube=http://youtu.be/JxpNyyoW9Vc]

I imagine it’s fun to brag when you played football with a future NFL star in high school or college. It’s just as fun to say you performed in college with a guy with talent of the magnitude to guest star on Herbie Hancock’s album and have Stevie Wonder be a guest on his. If you’re curious, I was in a horn section performing the Earth Wind and Fire tune September and Raul was doing a mean Phillip Bailey. Catch him if you can . . .

[youtube=http://youtu.be/j-AehUIQUrw]

Thank You

I’ll gradually begin increasing the volume of content as summer gets rolling. In the meantime, I’d like to thank those of you for purchasing the 2013 RSP publication. You support this blog, the publication, and you’re helping a great cause all in one.

If you haven’t bought the RSP before, I can say with pride that you’ll get as much out of it as I put into it – and I put everything I can into it. My readers will tell you they love it. If you’re on the fence, I am confident that you’ll realize this is one of those cases where there’s little hype to what I’m saying here. Plus, I donate 10 percent of each sale to Darkness to Light, a non-profit whose mission is to prevent and combat sexual abuse through community training and awareness.

Download the RSP now and know that with your purchase, you also get access to the 2013 Post-Draft publication that comes with it. At the very least, follow this blog click on the link on the left to follow and you’ll receive email updates when I post new articles that give you a taste of the analysis and detail put into the RSP publication. Then consider supporting the site (and do yourself a favor at the same time) by downloading the publication.

Views

[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W1TMZASCR-I?rel=0&w=420&h=315]

The Little Metronome That Wouldn’t

Football Reads

If you’re not reading Chase Stuart, you should check out something of his at least once a week. He’ll tell you he learned under Pro-Football-Reference.com writer/originator Doug Drinen – and Drinen taught Stuart well. Football Perspective is Stuart’s site and one of my favorite sites that does statistical analysis.  He shows his work, the material is intellectually honest, and he approaches his studies with curiosity and a balanced scope and understanding that the sports analytics movement is just a chapter in the story and not the entire book.

Stuart knows about the game beyond the numbers and he’s a willing historian of eras that he may not have been witness to, but approaches with a reverence that makes his site one of the most enjoyable football blogs around. Here are three pieces that I think are well worth reading and learning whether you are a student of the game or a fantasy fanatic.

Non-Football Reads

Coming Soon at the RSP Blog

Ryan Clark and I are warming up for football spring and summer. Photo by Jeff Bryk.
Ryan Clark and I are warming up for football spring and summer. Photo by Jeff Bryk.

When it has come to this blog, I’ve been off the grid for a couple of weeks writing the Rookie Scouting Portfolio Post-Draft and some soon-to-be released Gut Check columns at Footballguys. Once I get fully into my spring-summer groove, I’ll have content for the blog.

How long will it take? Maybe another week.

Part of that groove is having a few slower weeks to relax a bit and reorient my schedule that gets throw completely out of whack trying to balance publication of the RSP, this blog, Football Outsiders, Footballguys, and my magazine job.

But there are exciting developments on the horizon at the blog:

  • Reality Sports Online: This is the ultimate dynasty league site for the hardcore fan. I will be hosting a draft with some of my favorite writers around the Internet this month and writing about it monthly. More about this soon.
  • RSPWP2: Yes, it’s still alive. No, we haven’t been updating it much because we’re just waiting for the draft to end. Once it does, Bloom and I will update the picks and commentary. After that, we have a panel of judges who will pick the contenders from the pretenders, determine the best team, and set a draft order for the rookies. Good stuff.
  • Preseason Content: I’ll profile some of the UDFAs from this year as well as emerging talents in their second, third, or fourth seasons in the NFL.
  • 2014 College Players: Nope, never too early to begin looking at college prospects.

And of course, if you’re in a dynasty league and you haven’t bought the 2013 RSP then you ought to help yourself now. The responses I’m getting about the Post-Draft edition are terrific. Here is what you get:

  • 67 pages
  • How to use the RSP and RSP-Post Draft together
  • Overrated/Underrated
  • Good/Bad post-draft fits
  • UDFAs to watch
  • Long-term dynasty waiver wire gems
  • Long-term developmental projects
  • Strategic overview of 2013 rookie drafts
  • Tiered Value Chart Cheat Sheet across all positions
  • Post-Draft rankings analysis and commentary
  • Average Draft Position (ADP) Data
  • RSP Ranking-to-ADP Value Data
  • Raw Data Worksheets to continue calculating additional ADP data for future drafts

And this plus the 1290-page RSP pre-draft are all part of the purchase price. With 10 percent going to Darkness to Light to combat and prevent sexual abuse in communities across the nation, why are you still reading this? Go download it!

To those of you who own the RSP, thank you. It’s a blessing to do this work and you’re supporting not only my ability to write the publication, but maintain this blog that is filled content that other sites would pay to feature.

Looking forward to being back in the mix very soon.

 

 

Download the RSP Post-Draft Today!

If you think of me when you see these three players - among others - you don't need me to say any more. If you don't, perhaps its time to starting downloading the RSP publication every April 1.
If you think of me when you see these three players – among others – you don’t need me to say any more. If you don’t, perhaps its time to starting downloading the RSP Post-Draft.

The 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio Post-Draft Add-On is ready for download.  If you’re in a dynasty league, the combination of the 2013 RSP and the RSP Post-Draft will have you prepared for this year and beyond. Want details? Need details? I have ’em right here:

  • 67 pages
  • How to use the RSP and RSP-Post Draft together
  • Overrated/Underrated
  • Good/Bad post-draft fits
  • UDFAs to watch
  • Long-term dynasty waiver wire gems
  • Long-term developmental projects
  • Strategic overview of 2013 rookie drafts
  • Tiered Value Chart Cheat Sheet across all positions
  • Post-Draft rankings analysis and commentary
  • Average Draft Position (ADP) Data
  • RSP Ranking-to-ADP Value Data
  • Raw Data Worksheets to continue calculating additional ADP data for future drafts

Seriously, this analysis is worth the price of the 2013 RSP package alone, but you get this as a part of your purchase with the 2013 RSP. Remember 10 percent of each sale is donated to Darkness to Light to prevent sexual abuse in communities across the United States. While that alone should get you to download the RSP package, do it because you will be blown away with the detail and insight of the analysis and content. It’s why the RSP has grown so much in the past eight years.

Download the 2013 RSP and RSP Post-Draft here

Quick note: I transposed the passing touchdowns and rushing/receiving touchdowns in the post-draft. It should be 4 points per passing touchdown and 6 points for rushing and receiving scores. My apologies.

2013 RSP Post-Draft

Will Bell be an immediate impact player in Pittsburgh? Photo by Matt Radick.
Will Bell be an immediate impact player in Pittsburgh? My take on this and the rest of the skill position picks (and UDFAs) coming this week – see below. Photo by Matt Radick.

For the next few days, I’ll be working on the 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio Post-Draft Add-On. This is a .pdf document of 60-70 pages for fantasy owners that includes rankings by position and also across all positions. The post-draft analysis also discusses scheme fit, depth chart projections, fantasy draft analysis, and value scores for each player.

The RSP Post-Draft Add-on comes with purchase of the 2013 RSP. It will be available for download no later than Friday, May 3 but I anticipate it could be available as much as a day or two earlier. I will email all subscribers once it’s available as well as announce it here.

Here are the first six responses I from an email about the RSP-Post Draft minutes after I sent the message:

  • “Great, thanks and awesome work!” – Mark Costanza
  • “Thanks Matt. Appreciate your good work a lot. Big thank you and best regards from Germany” – Deiter Janssen
  • “Thank you so much for the insane amount of work you put into the RSP.” – Corey Tadlock
  • “Big fan here keep doing what you do!!” – Russell Franceschini
  • “It’s been awesome to watch the growth of this project from year to year.  Congratulations.” – David Hamill
  • “Can’t wait!!! And great work BTW” James Tallon

If you have yet to purchase the RSP, I encourage you to do so. In addition to it being a value to you, each purchase allows me to donate 10 percent of the cost to Darkness to Light. D2L combats sexual abuse through training and awareness to community organizations and individuals.

For those of you who have done so – thanks for making this a great year already!

Why Buy the RSP?

A 261-page online publication that provides 1029 pages of play-by-play notes from my evaluation database and 10 percent of your purchase is donated to fight sexual abuse.
A 261-page online publication that provides 1029 pages of play-by-play notes from my evaluation database and 10 percent of your purchase is donated to fight sexual abuse.

Never heard of the RSP? Your first time considering it? Find out why the most common thing I hear from new readers is that this publication dedicated to the study of offensive skill players exceeds expectations with most new readers and has built a loyal following. Hard not to do when you get a pre-draft publication, a post-draft update, and 10 percent of each sale is donated to combat and prevent sexual abuse. See below.

BTW – Best pre-draft scouting report on every conceivable guy [at the skills positions] is by @MattWaldman. Very good read – mattwaldman.com

Chris Brown, author of Smartfootball.com and Grantland contributor, via Twitter

Q: What is the purpose of the RSP?

The RSP isn’t a draft-prediction publication, it’s an analysis of talent based on a player performance on the field.  This can help draftniks learn more about the talent of players without worrying about the machinations of the draft that are often an entirely different animal from talent evaluation. The evaluation techniques for the RSP are designed to target a player’s athletic skills, positional techniques, and conceptual understanding of the game. It also makes a great resource for fantasy football players.

Q: What makes the RSP different from other draft analysis?

The Rookie Scouting Portfolio is the best guide to the QB, RB, WR, and TE talents in the draft because it goes deeper than any other guide. Because Matt shows his math with hundreds of intensely detailed individual game breakdowns. Because it ranks prospects not just overall, but for each attribute. Because if you read between the lines, Matt is teaching you how to scout these positions, what to look for, how to articulate what you see. It’s a must for any serious football fan, fantasy football player, or anyone that wants to get smarter about watching football.

-Sigmund Bloom, Footballguys co-owner, B/R Draft Analyst, and “On the Couch” host.

I use an extensively documented process and I make the work available for the reader to see – although I don’t send them through a forced death march through the material. As a reader, you don’t have to feel the pain I had writing it – the masochism is provided at your convenience.

Still, the process is important to talk about. It has helped me arrive at high pre-draft grades for many underrated players, including Russell Wilson, Matt Forte, Ahmad Bradshaw, Dennis Pitta, Arian Foster and Joseph Addai. Where it really makes a difference is when I’m studying a player in a game where the competition limits a player’s statistical success and I’m still able to see the talent shine through. Likewise, this process has helped me spot critical issues with players like Stephen Hill, Isaiah Pead, Matt Leinart, Robert Meachem, and C.J. Spiller when others anticipated an early, and often immediate, impact.  

Q: How is The Rookie Scouting Portfolio rooted in best practices?

I managed a large branch of a call center and eventually had responsibility for the performance evaluation of over 70 call centers around the U.S. I began my career from the bottom-up. I was heavily involved in recruiting, hiring, training, and developing large and small teams of employees.I often had to build large teams that competed with a client’s internal call enter and with a fraction of the budget to train and develop in terms of time and money.

We beat them consistently.

One of the biggest reasons was a focus on instituting quality processes. We figured out what was important to us, how to prioritize it’s importance, and how to evaluate our employs in a fair, consistent, and flexible manner to spot the good and bad. Eventually, my company sent me to an organization that provided training for best-practice performance techniques that successful Fortune 500 businesses tailored to their service and manufacturing sectors.

The most important thing I learned that applies to the RSP is best practices for monitoring performance. Although the original purpose for my training was to monitor representatives talking with customers over the phone, these techniques also made sense to apply to personnel evaluation in other ways. Football is one of them.

Think the NFL couldn’t use a best-practice approach? Read about its current evaluation system and what former scouts have to say about the management of that process and you’ll think differently. The RSP approach makes the evaluation process transparent to the reader and helps the author deliver quality analysis.

Another “best practice” I’m implementing in 2013 is “giving back.” Ten percent of each sale in 2013 is going to charity.

Q: The RSP is huge, but you say it is easy to read and navigate. How is it structure? Is it iPad-friendly?

The easiest way to describe the RSP is that it’s an online publication with two main parts:

  • The front part most people read, which is the same length of any draft magazine you see at the newsstand.
  • The back part that my craziest, most devoted, and masochistic readers check out – all the play-by-play analysis of every player I watch.

The RSP has a menu that allows you to jump to various parts of the publication so the crazy detail in the back doesn’t swallow you whole and you never return to reality. I continue to provide the back part because many of my readers love to know that I back up my analysis with painstaking work. In that sense they are also sadists, but being the ultimate masochist that I am – I appreciate their sadism.

“The GoodReader app takes anything I want to read in PDF form, presents it very nicely, and makes the document portable and enjoyable. The encyclopedia that you’ve created (which I absolutely love 25% into it) would require someone to peer into his or her computer/laptop screen for a very long time. On an iPad inside that app it bookmarks your place and makes reading long files a joy…AND PORTABLE.”

-Ray Calder

Q: I heard the RSP gives back to charity. How? 

Beginning in 2012, I started donating 10 percent of every Rookie Scouting Portfolio purchase to charity. This is something I have wanted to do for a long time. Once the Penn State scandal broke, I decided to send the funds to the program Darkness to Light.

Darkness to Light – Excerpt from their mission statement: “Darkness to Light is a national organization and initiative. Our mission is to empower people to prevent child sexual abuse. Darkness to Light’s public awareness campaign seeks to raise awareness of the prevalence and consequences of child sexual abuse.”

Q: What do readers think of the RSP?

I collect these emails like one of my favorite pizza joints in Colorado collects napkin drawings from customers and places them all over the walls of its restaurant. If you have one you want to send me, please feel free. I’ll add them my list. Here are some of them below:

“If you don’t buy the RSP, be prepared to get dominated in your rookie draft by someone that did.”

– Jarrett Behar, Staff writer for Dynasty League Football and creator of Race to the Bottom.

“In complete awe of the 2007 Rookie Scouting Portfolio via @MattWaldman — Incredibly in-depth analysis that required time & football smarts”

 Ryan Lownes, Draftnik (with strong online analysis in his own right)

Any diehard #Dynasty #fantasyfootball fan should go get @MattWaldman’s Rookie Scouting Portfolio bit.ly/I4fOa2 You’ll thank me later

-@JamesFFBNFL Draft analyst, enthusiast, and writer for DraftBreakdown.com and Bleacher Report.

“For someone like me who doesn’t closely follow the college game, there is nothing I have found even vaguely measuring up to your thoroughness and point by point analysis of the draftable rookies. Among my favorite things is that at the core you rely on play rather than comparing stats produced or combine numbers. Measurables I can get anywhere, but numbers offer little perspective on what they mean or what factors together created them. I want to know what a guy looks like out there, who plays fast – rather than who runs fast in shorts with no one to dodge or avoid. Which WRs can and can’t run routes or consistently get separation or catch with their hands or fight off defenders to make contested catches. Your exhaustive package gives me a basis to work from including a careful look at every significant player. I can read and add the views and comments and stats I want to like ornaments on the Christmas tree – where that tree is the foundation of player abilities that you weave together into a ranked whole.

I have no way to know how right or wrong your conclusions are. You certainly don’t shy away from controversial evaluations. But overall, for just plain understanding of who the rookies are, how they play and what we might expect in the NFL – I don’t know of anything close. After reading this tome, I would feel blind and naked walking into a rookie draft next year without having that insight. My huge thanks!”

Catbird, Footballguys.com message boards

“Love your work. I’ve subscribed to your RSP for the past 3 years and it is my bible for dynasty league rookie drafts.”

– David Liu

“In our business, we are able to access many different types of reference materials. The Rookie Scouting Portfolio stands above the rest for one simple fact: it is more comprehensive than anything else I have seen. Matt Waldman is head and shoulders the best fantasy football expert I have had on the air, and his expertise starts well before the players get to the NFL with analysis and game film study of the incoming rookie class. I can’t recommend the RSP highly enough.”

– Ian Furness
Host, Sports Radio 950 KJR
Seattle, WA

“All I can really say at first is “Wow!” There is just a TON of great and useful information packed into that report. I thought I’d give it a quick glance during my lunch hour and I found myself reading quite a bit of it over the next 2 hours. I like the way everything is laid out. It’s easy to understand and covers all the items necessary to make it a top notch scouting report for the fantasy footballer.

– Tim Huckaby

“IMHO this is a MUST read. Matt really does the work and tells it the way he sees it. Had a couple of GREAT picks this year with Austin Collie and and I think Stafford. In prior years, he has lead me to Ray Rice in a PPR no less and Mike Sims Walker… If you are like me in a Zealots league, go back and read the prior years as it helps with the RFA/UFA process.”

– Tony Madeira

Hey Matt,

Just thought you would want to know that I enjoyed the 2012 Rookie Scouting Portfolio so much that I had to buy the other six years, to see what you had to say about previous players. I’ve been playing fantasy football for over 20 years (started at age 11) and I can’t tell you how refreshing it is to see someone put this much effort into analyzing prospects skills, and then filtering that info back to their potential fantasy value.

Not sure if you have a running testimonial page but if your ever inclined to do so, feel free to use this email as one, if you wish.

Not trying to kiss your butt or anything but your work is really an inspiration for someone like myself.

thank you for your efforts,

Sean Douglas, FantasyInfo.com’

Download the 2013 RSP or purchase past issues (2006-2012)