Posts tagged RSP

How I Would Change The Senior Bowl

Tom Moore, Senior Bowl Coach Emeritus. Has a ring to it. Learn why the Senior Bowl should become a lyceum for coaching. Photo by Ringfrenzy
Tom Moore, Senior Bowl Coach Emeritus. Has a ring to it. Learn why the Senior Bowl should become a lyceum for coaching. Photo by Ringfrenzy

I’ll have practice observations from Day Three coming soon, but first I want to share what I would do to take the Senior Bowl into the 21st century if given the power to make major changes. The benefits would far outweigh the costs – especially in a league in its golden age making money hand over first.

Phil Savage is doing a lot to create an infrastructure that will address the minor flaws of the Senior Bowl experience. There is more organization with team interviews at the team hotels. There’s a greater level of separation among NFL team representatives, media, and fans. He has even gotten the NFL to allow fourth-year juniors with degrees to participate – a first. And as I’ve mentioned a couple of times this week, Savage wants the NFL more involved in scouting players it wants to invite to the game as well as encouraging prospects to accept the invitation.

The new director of the Senior Bowl understands that there isn’t much incentive for the highest profile seniors to attend the event. If I were an agent for Geno Smith, Tyler Eifert, or Tavon Austin, I wouldn’t recommend them to accept an invitation. It is common knowledge that 90 percent of the on-field portion of player scouting has already been done by now, why risk an injury before the NFL Combine? At present, the Combine and pro days have a greater perceived impact on a prospect’s draft stock and the prep time to “game” these pseudo-football drills is of precious value to a prospect. A player with a minor or nagging injury has more to lose exacerbating the injury or underwhelming observers at the Senior Bowl than skipping the event altogether.

I can appreciate what Savage is doing to tighten up the event even if what he is tackling is low-hanging fruit. However, he’ll have to make bigger changes if he wants to cut the 25 percent turn-down rate among first-invites to 10-12 percent. Savage and the Senior Bowl staff encouraged NFL team representatives multiple times this week to give feedback on how to make the event better.

If I were a high-ranking official of an NFL team and what I perceive as an outsider looking in is accurate, then I have a number of big changes that I would make to transform the Senior Bowl into a sterling, must-attend event that even the agents of the crème de la crème would have to encourage their clients to go. These are big-picture moves that would make scouting this game easier, enhance the image of the game and the NFL, begin to prepare the players for professional football both on and off the field, and ultimately increase the brand of the Senior Bowl to its customers and sponsors.

Hire Full-Time Coaching Staffs

I recognize the appeal of NFL staffs coaching the Senior Bowl rosters. The perception is that these teams offer players a wealth of football experience, cutting-edge teaching techniques, and it’s all backed by prestige of the NFL shield. This is my fourth year here and I don’t buy it.

The differences in quality and methodology among coaching staffs across the league are vast. Northern Illinois running back Chad Spann spent time with the Colts, Buccaneers, and Steelers during the 2011 season. The structure, the attention to teaching, and the culture of the teams all differed. It’s the same when watching the Lions run a practice compared to the Raiders, Bills, Dolphins, Bengals, or Vikings. The basic intent of some drills may be similar, but the methods, the pace, and the feedback are often worlds apart. Although there where good things I learned from the Raiders wide receiver drills, I would have felt cheated as a Senior Bowl receiver if I saw what the Lions staff did with its players.

One of the major changes I’d make is to ask the NFL to create a budget for a coaching staff with two head coaches and a full complement of assistants. The staff would assist Savage in scouting and selecting players for the event. Since there is only one game for the Senior Bowl coaches every year, the Senior Bowl committee could create programs where these coaches could hold seminars or panels for college and pro coaches to exchange ideas during the offseason. The Senior Bowl could become an incubator for coaching innovation – as my friend Sigmund Bloom would call a “Lyceum for football coaches.”

This job could have a lot of appeal for some of the great coaches of the game who may no longer wish to travel or have the same killer schedule as an NFL team, but still have something great to offer to the game as a professor emeritus of coaching. They could do consulting for NFL teams. Imagine Howard Mudd, Tom Moore, or Tony Dungy as assistant or head coaches-in-residence. The league could even have an NFL scouting school and these graduates or teachers are part of the ground-floor process of narrowing down players to invite for the game. There are a ton of far-reaching innovations from this idea that could prove lucrative for the Senior Bowl and provide long-term benefit to the NFL.

The best value of a change like this one for teams, scouts, and media is that I would require these coaches to agree upon the same drills to run prospects through their paces during Senior Bowl Week. The order, location, and execution of the drills would all be uniform. This would be easier for teams to know where to station its scouts, help the planning committee organize the viewing experience, and most important, make it easier to see how players performed relative to each other.

Add 3-5 Days to the Event

If the Senior Bowl were 10-14 days in length, the event could then become the place where the NFL has its rookie symposium. Although many of these rookies won’t make the NFL, several of them will play professional football of some sort in the CFL or Arena League. Helping these prospects become aware of the pitfalls a professional football life on and off the field can never start too early – especially during a time where players are shopping for agents, financial advisors, and are targeted to accept loans before they even see contracts. Make the Senior Bowl seminars a voice of proactive sanity.

Another benefit of extending the event is that the Senior Bowl should increase its invitation list and add another 22-44 prospects as “taxi squad” invites. They’ll attend the symposiums, study the playbooks, and have the opportunity to meet with teams, but they won’t practice unless a player from an active roster gets hurt or drops out. The additional roster spots give the bubble players a better chance to be prepared than flown down the day of practice and fitted into pads on the field while a coach is giving them a crash course of the practice schedule or scheme. This would reduce the number of players turning down the event and it would also alter the perception that the Senior Bowl is always scrambling at the last minute to fill its rosters.

Make the Mobile the “Official NFL Convention”

If the Senior Bowl could hire full-time coaches, create a coaching institute and farm out consulting, institute a scouting school, and host the Rookie Symposium, the Senior Bowl would no longer be the “Unofficial NFL Convention.” Mobile would become a hub where old and new exchange ideas, players make career transitions to scouts and coaches, and college prospects get top-notch coaching and exposure to wisdom on and off the field to prepare them for the profession. This type of investment would be good for the NFL on so many levels, I can’t see a downside. Can you?

Senior Bowl: Day Two Skill Player Notables

Day Two of the Senior Bowl was packed with observations from both practices. This morning’s report covers wide receivers, quarterbacks, running backs, and tight ends. There are also some thoughts about drills and the Senior Bowl selection process.

A Senior Bowl tradition worth keeping is a writing roundtable at The Brick Pit. We'll have our own below. BYOB(BQ). Photo by MRak75.
A Senior Bowl tradition worth keeping is a writers roundtable at The Brick Pit. We’ll have our own below. BYOB(BQ). Photo by MRak75.

Plenty of highlights today, most notably a football roundtable with Rotoworld’s Josh Norris, CBS’s Rob Rang, Football Outsiders-Fifth Down contributor Andy Benoit, Yahoo!-Outsider’s alum Doug Farrar, and Footballguys-RSP guest writer Jene Bramel. The conversation was better than the barbeque and the `cue was no slouch. If you aren’t reading these guys, then you probably aren’t looking at this page. If you’re one of the lone exceptions, I highly recommend you start checking out their work.

Quick Thoughts

The more I watch pass protection drills between backs and linebackers the less I’m impressed by the design of these exercises. I have no coaching experience, but it fascinates me that teams don’t employ more diagnostic elements into the drills – especially for the pass protectors. Why not have a 3 (defenders)-on-1 (blocker) drill where the blocker has two or three possible options he has to read before the snap and then get into position after the snap to execute the assignment? At this point, I watch running backs in these traditional drills and often the only thing they really learn is to game the system of the drill rather than develop real pass protection skills.

The Senior Bowl has a tradition of inviting at least two players from a prominent Alabama institution. This year I believe the two players were Auburn back/return specialist Onterrio McCalebb and Alabama eight end Michael Williams. Both players have the skills to be in Mobile this week, but there have been times I thought some of the past players were a gesture of goodwill to attract in-state interest. From a marketing standpoint I get it. However, the changes Phil Savage is instituting with the structure of the week, scouting players, decreasing the turn-down rate of initial invitees, and even the limitations of field access to the general media to give the NFL Network room to roam, indicates that the Senior Bowl wants to increase its national prominence. Right now, having Alabama and Auburn players is often a no-brainer, but Alabama football doesn’t need to be thrown a bone to get here and one day this practice might prevent more deserving talents from participating.

North Squad Receivers

The Raiders dispensed with a few of Day 1’s drills and went right to the 5×10 cone drill versus cornerbacks. Today, the corners gained the upper hand and were far more successful with knocking the receivers outside the five-yard-wide boundary before they reached the second set of cones 10 yards down field. Unlike yesterday, no receiver from the North squad dominated this exercise against press.  However, some of these receivers who struggled in this drill turned the tables in scrimmages or one-on-one matchups.

Markus Wheaton: Wheaton had initial trouble getting on top of the defender with his first two reps in the cone drill. He also was a little rough through his breaks on an out-and-up, but earned separation with his speed up the boundary. Unlike several of the receivers on either squad, Wheaton has a knack for getting position on a defender after his break. He made a nice catch on a slant, got strong position on a hook after his break, and for the second time in two days, displayed good technique on a deep fade where he caught the ball over his shoulder at the boundary. On five-on-sevens, Wheaton engaged in some trash talking with Washington corner Desmond Trufant, who asked the coaches to allow him to cut in line and take on the receiver. Wheaton promptly spanked Trufant on a deep streak up the right sideline with a nice move early in the route to slide outside and then buy position. Mike Glennon made the deep throw, hitting Wheaton in stride.

Marquise Goodwin: Goodwin began the 5×10 cone drill with some success. When he can use his quickness to avoid the reach of a corner, he wins easily. However, the Longhorns receiver progressively allowed defenders to get the best of him with each rep because he didn’t flash the coordination or strength to keep hands off his body. Once the corners jammed Goodwin, he could never shake them from a position over the top and they rode the receiver down field. One thing Wheaton does well that Goodwin has to learn is to duck through contact. Goodwin gets too upright and presents a great target for his opponent. In the scrimmage parts of practice, Goodwin was up and down. He ran a nice curl and then a good out. Speed is sometimes a wonderful eraser of bad technique – he failed to execute a swim move against press but managed to  a sharp turn under the defender and get separation on an out. He still has to learn how to generate good position after his breaks. He was undercut on one target and then got open on a cross only to drop a good pass from Ryan Nassib.

Chris Harper: Harper got tied up on all three of his reps in the 5×10 cone drill. On two of the three reps, he managed to work free after an initial struggle, but the third rep was a complete failure – but he was far from the only receiver to have a failed rep in this morning’s drill. In scrimmage situations or one-on-ones, Harper looks good in the first half of his routes and will fight for the ball after his break, but actual breaks need improvement. I don’t see the speed to win the ball at the end of vertical routes and I’m not as impressed with him as some of my compatriots this week. I don’t know if anyone is comparing him with Juron Criner due to his build, but I’d much rather have Criner.

Aaron Mellette:  The receiver from Elon struggled yesterday in drills, but he improved today. Mellette won his matchups in two of his three reps in this 5×10 cone drill. Although he encountered some resistance that he couldn’t beat immediately on the third rep, he eventually got on top of the defender. It was good to see him make progress from one day to the next. I’m looking forward to seeing if that progress continues on Wednesday. He carried over that ability to gain separation into one-on-one’s, but dropped multiple passes. He managed to get deep at the one of the one-on-one portion. Unlike Brian Quick last year, there’s more football savvy to the way Mellette uses his body.  He also did a good job working back to the football today. Perhaps he has a fighting chance to develop into an NFL contributor. The athleticism is there.

Aaron Dobson: I love Dobson’s ability to adjust to the football with a defender on him, but he still needs to improve his techniques off the line of scrimmage. He had one bad rep, improved upon it with the next turn, and then failed to get separation on the third rep. He’s at his best when he’s a little more physical with the corners. The finesse moves just aren’t working for him right now. In one-on-one’s he got a quick release early and once again did a nice job of adjusting to the football just like he flashed on Monday. He didn’t see a lot of targets on five-on-seven or 11-on-11s today.

Denard Robinson: Robinson continues to wear the yellow, no-contact jersey and today the biggest takeaway was the amount of extra attention the Raiders receiver coach spent on the Michigan athlete’s stride. Robinson dropped several passes today in drills and one-on-ones. Still, there was a reminder of what Robinson could do if he can assimilate the techniques of playing receiver. The rep was an out-and-up versus a corner playing off-man technique. Robinson slipped during his initial out-cut, but his athleticism clicked into gear and he managed to stay upright and turn the corner on the defensive back swooping in for the kill on the initial break. Robinson shot up the sideline and beat the defender handily for a long play. It was an example of how athleticism can erase errors. Just understand that the eraser isn’t nearly as large at the NFL level.

Alec Lemon: Lemon was a late substitute for the North Squad. The Syracuse receiver made a sneaky-good impression today. Despite failing to win any rep in 5×10 cone drills versus the defensive backs, when Lemon was asked to run routes, he turned lemons into…okay, I won’t go there. Lemon demonstrated the savvy to turn a defender’s jam into his favor, consistently getting late separation and making catch after catch in tight quarters. He was smooth, in control, and unfazed by decent coverage.  I still have questions about his athleticism for the NFL level, but I he did a good job today.

South Practice Wide Receivers

Ryan Swope was on the sideline today and the Lions practice was far more equipment-focused for receivers than the Raiders. This was the case when they were here a couple of years ago. Detroit’s drills were different than the last time the team coached here. The staff employed trash cans and blocking dummies to emphasize angles of breaks and control with turns. The coaches used the dummies to emphasis intensity with strikes during the release phase of routes. If I were to compare the staffs, the Raiders focused more on releases during their drills and the Lions emphasized breaks. If I were a receiver at the Senior Bowl I felt the Lions staff had a more comprehensive approach to coaching the receivers on the field.

Quinton Patton: The receiver from Louisiana Tech was one of those cases where I saw more from him in practice than I saw from him in his games. Patton was really quick running through the gauntlet of cans and made tight turns on breaks. He practices fast.  In one-on-one’s Patton made a tough catch on a deep streak up the right sideline, fighting through contact late in the route. The defensive back pushed Patton late and the receiver managed to control his balance enough to get additional separation as he turned back to the ball and made the catch while falling backwards, losing his helmet in the process – one of the most impressive athletic displays among the receivers this week. Patton earned praise form the coaching staff in scrimmages for working back to the football and taking good position on a slant. He also was the on the receiving end of the most impressive throw I saw today (from Tyler Wilson – more on that later), catching a dig in stride.

Cobi Hamilton: Hamilton’s play wasn’t as consistent as Patton’s, but he had noticeable bright moments in practice. He has sharp with his breaks during drills, which earned him praise for improving during his reps. He dropped a dig route in 11-on-11 drills because he waited for the ball to arrive. He failed to extend his arms to the ball a few times on catchable passes and it’s a habit I’d like to see him address. One thing he did well was work back to the quarterback. If he can do a better job extending his arms, he’ll make more plays – especially in the face of contact. Hamilton blew by a corner on one deep target, but he failed to make the proper adjustment to the ball. Hamilton’s NFL athleticism is easy to see, but he needs to address the details of his craft or he’ll tease an NFL team. Think Mohammed Massoquoi or Reggie Brown.

Conner Vernon: The Duke receiver earned praise for his tight turns in drills, especially the angle of his breaks. Although he didn’t achieve strong separation versus man coverage, he was often in good position to make a play on the football. Vernon dropped two passes after encountering contact from tight coverage. He did make a nice catch at the sideline on an out after he was pushed in the chest while airborne to make the reception of an E.J. Manuel pass in 11-on-11 drills. It was too quick to call whether he was inbounds, but the effort was good. Vernon, like Alec Lemon, has to make up for his lack of top-end speed by catching everything in sight versus tight coverage. He didn’t do it today.

Terrance Williams: Williams had an up and down day. During route drills, he’d have a strong rep followed by a weaker one. When he put it all together on a rep, he drew a lot of encouragement from the Lions staff. You can see flashes of a pro receiver when those moments of technique and athleticism converge. It didn’t happen often enough today. Williams failed to get position or come back to the football in scrimmages and dropped a pass after contact from a defender. Like Hamilton, he’s an NFL athlete but not yet an NFL receiver.

Tavarres King: King wasn’t as athletic as Patton, Hamilton, or Williams, but he was more consistent than the last two. I liked his ability to break on the ball and he had a route up the left sideline where he told a good story with a couple of fluid moves to set up his break back to the quarterback at the left sideline in tight coverage. One of the better catches of the day was a dig route where he had to make a strong extension on a pass at shoulder level well away from his body, displaying the ability to “play long.” He had one drop on a low, but catchable throw during five-on-sevens with Landry Jones at quarterback.

North and South Squad Running Backs

Oregon running back Kenjon Barner has his fans here. Doug Farrar and Josh Norris believe he's a better prospect than LaMichael James. Photo by Wade Rackley.
Oregon running back Kenjon Barner has his fans here. Doug Farrar and Josh Norris believe he’s a better prospect than LaMichael James. Photo by Wade Rackley.

The only notable observations I have of North running backs came from pass protection drills. Before I give my takes on each player, I think it’s important to state that diagnosis is a key component of pass protection that these drills did not simulate. Personally, I’d love to see drills that send multiple defenders off an edge or flash three potential blitz types pre snap and force the running back to make a read based on what he sees from the opposition. This would tell me more than many of the drills I see in practices like these. I did see some runs in 11-on-11s from the South squad backs – worth noting, but nothing new from what I’ve seen from them this year in real games.

Kenjon Barner: Quickness abounds with Barner and I liked his ability to get into position and square-up the defender. He doesn’t deliver a punch and this is a key component to good pass protection. Otherwise, the blocker is more passive than active and he’s likely to be controlled rather than control.

Johnathan Franklin: Franklin got into position and stood his ground against pressure coming down hill at a good pace, but like Barner, he didn’t deliver a punch. Unlike the Oregon back, Franklin was just big enough and demonstrated good enough technique to anchor his legs and hold his ground on more of these reps. Once, again, it comes down to Franklin learning to punch.

Mike Gillislee: The Florida runner got duped on swim moves multiple times in running back versus linebacker pass protection drills. He’s quick enough and will punch and turn a defender if he gets good position, but he can telegraph his intentions. In 11-on-11’s he flashed his quick feet, side-stepping penetration up the middle to slip to an open lane off left guard for a nice gain. He caught the ball well on swing passes and he’s a player who should grow into a contributor. The better he gets at pass protection, the bigger the contributor he can be.

Stepfan Taylor: I profiled Taylor before the Senior Bowl, praising his leverage as a runner. He’s always running in a crouched position that gives him an advantage versus impending contact. He’s the most decisive, physical runner on Mobile this week. As much as I like Johnathan Franklin’s smarts and versatility, I think Taylor is the most NFL-ready of the Senior Bowl backs. I’d like to see him do a better job of delivering a punch in pass drills, but he also has the size to anchor against linebackers. It’s important to note that Taylor won’t get away with “catching” defenders in the NFL like he has in drills here. He has to shore up this deficiency.

North Squad Quarterbacks

According to former NC State Head Coach Tom O'Brien, Mike Glennon was the guy burning a hole in the bench behind Russell Wilson. Perhaps if his play involved matches, because he's not setting the Senior Bowl on fire. Photo by Football Schedule.
According to former NC State Head Coach Tom O’Brien, Mike Glennon was the guy burning a hole in the bench behind Russell Wilson. Perhaps if his play involved matches, because he’s not setting the Senior Bowl on fire. Photo by Football Schedule.

None of these quarterbacks pique my interest. I can offer a logical explanation as to why each one will succeed or fail at the next level, but there are far more possibilities why they won’t make a successful transition than I see from recent quarterback classes. The scrimmage drills highlighted more flaws than strengths for this North depth chart.

Zac Dysert: The Miami, Ohio quarterback is the most aggressive of the trio, but also the most reckless. He stares down his primary receiver too often – he threw an interception on an out doing exactly what I described. He’s the only quarterback I’ve seen on either roster attempt a shoulder fake to bait a defender down field. Dysert also floated the ball down field a couple of times on targets where I think more velocity was required for the pass to reach its receiver on-time. One his deep outs also sailed too high with too much air under the ball. I haven’t seen him really drive the ball yet.

Mike Glennon: The N.C. State quarterback got to show off a pretty deep arm on a sideline fade to Markus Wheaton in five-on-seven drills. He also stuck a slant to Chris Harper in traffic that drew an ooh from the crowd in 11-on-11s. This is Glennon’s appeal: big arm and tall frame to see over the defense without getting on his toes. To be nice, he’s everything Russell Wilson isn’t. To be accurate, everything is only one thing: tall.

Ryan Nassib: Optimum Scouting writer Eric Galko asked me what I thought about Nassib. I can see the case for him developing into an NFL starter one day, but I have reservations about his arm strength. I don’t put a ton of weight into arm strength when it comes to evaluating quarterbacks. But if arm strength is missing from a quarterback’s game there have to compensatory factors that mitigate its absence: mobility, great anticipation, or hyper-accuracy. Nassib doesn’t have great arm strength, but I was encouraged to see an opposite hash throw where he drilled the ball to his receiver. However, his deep throws continue to lack either anticipation or distance and velocity. More anticipation would lessen the need for the other two qualities, but at this point he’s forced to try deep throws without this enhanced timing and he isn’t hitting the mark on time. Some of the plays I enjoyed most today where seam routes Nassib dropped into tight ends with excellent placement – even those his tight end’s dropped. He is clearly the best of the North trio of passers and probably the safest quarterback prospect in Mobile. It still doesn’t mean I would touch him in the first three rounds of the draft. I don’t care what the need is for a quarterback, if I have to pay him franchise money or show franchise patience then I’m throwing away two to three years and a shot at a better option. I think he’s a better prospect in theory than on the field.

South Quarterbacks

E.J. Manuel: Physically, he’s everything you want from a quarterback. Fundamentally, he needs work with his throwing motion and decision making. He can make every throw, but he has to learn better judgment. In scrimmages, he wasn’t pressed into a situation where he had to make a throw any more demanding than an out. The game is going to be the time where Manuel likely flashes the best and worst attributes. Stay tuned.

Landry Jones: He threw a nice swing pass to his full back early and got some help on a sliding catch of a crossing route by Cobi Hamilton in five-on-sevens. He was a little too wide for his receiver Tavarres King on an out, but King should have caught the ball inbounds despite the tight margin of error when not necessary. He did hit Terrance Williams on the move and the receiver worked back to the ball for once.

Tyler Wilson: He threw a pass intended for Mychal Rivera that was placed too far inside and the linebacker over top cut off the throw, tipping it, and a teammate made the interception. This was one of a few players where Wilson wasn’t especially sharp but didn’t get much help from his teammates, either. But here’s the kicker:  After this bad play, Wilson comes back and drills Quinton Patton on a dig route in stride with a laser beam while a defender is bearing down on Wilson from an already constricted pocket – the best throw of the week thus far. This aggressive, resilient nature is what separates Wilson from every quarterback in this class – junior or senior. This wasn’t the only good throw of the day from Wilson. He found Vance McDonald on a seam route 15-20 yards down field with good placement to the tight end’s back shoulder. Scott Linehan also praised Wilson for three quick reads in succession ending with a strong decision to hit Conner Vernon on a crossing route. He’s the only quarterback here I’d draft in the first three rounds and feel I got my money’s worth.

Tight Ends

Jack Doyle: The Western Kentucky prospect dropped multiple passes in five-on-seven and 11-on-11s today. There was a sequence where he dropped two in a row. He’s just fast enough to get down the seam and demonstrates just enough fluid athleticism to reach for a throw over his head or to his back shoulder. What he hasn’t done is hold onto the ball after contact or secures the ball on these adjustments. The Ravens Dennis Pitta is a great example of a less than stellar athlete with great ball skills and smarts in zone. Doyle is proving that he lacks the consistency to earn this kind of comparison.

Nick Kasa: The big Colorado tight end has been the best receiver and blocker of the North’s depth chart. He’s just fast enough to work the seam and big enough to get physical when needed. He catches the ball without fanfare and he’ll rumble through the open field for a bit if a defender isn’t disciplined with his tackling technique. He’s not an exciting prospect for the average fan, but as my colleague Josh Norris or Rob Ryan would say, Kasa will have a chance to playing the league for a while.

Michael Williams: Alabama’s tight end can block and he has soft hands. He’s a big, slow earth mover who welcomes contact from defenders in order to create separation as a receiver. As Doug Farrar and Josh Norris said tonight at dinner, he’ll have a long career as a No.3 tight end in the NFL.

Mychal Rivera: The Tennessee tight end is the smallest tight end in Mobile, but he’s one of the most athletic. He makes plays between defenders, extends well for the football and can make a move after the catch to create space. I didn’t get to see much from him as a blocker, but he projects as an H-Back.

Vance McDonald: One of the better catches of the day came from McDonald, who beat a safety with a nice move during his stem and then took the correct angle down field as he bent the route just enough to the outside to gain separation and run under a deep fade towards the pylon, making the catch with his hands over his inside shoulder in full gallop. He’s fluid like a wide receiver and because he’s so well put together as an athlete he doesn’t strike me as a 260-pound player. In terms of players with potential to be a consistent mismatch on every down, McDonald is the only tight end in this game that fits this description.

For more analysis of skill players, download the 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio available April 1. Prepayment is available now. Better yet, if you’re a fantasy owner the 56-page Post-Draft Add-on comes with the 2013 RSP at no additional charge. Best, yet, 10 percent of every sale is donated to Darkness to Light to combat sexual abuse. You can purchase past editions of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio for just $9.95 apiece.

Ezekiel Ansah: Next Man Up in the Potential vs Polish Debate

BYU DE Ezekiel Ansah is garnering Jason Pierre-Paul comparisons on social media. Jene Bramel says not so fast. Photo by Mike Morbeck.
BYU DE Ezekiel Ansah is garnering Jason Pierre-Paul comparisons on social media. Jene Bramel says not so fast. Photo by Mike Morbeck.

The scouting community and NFL player personnel departments love potential. It’s easy to project a player with elite combination of size and athleticism to future stardom. But the gap between potential and production is not trivial in the NFL. Jene Bramel explores this potential versus polish debate through the lens of defensive end Ezekiel Ansah

By Jene Bramel

Ezekiel Ansah is the latest prospect to spark a “potential vs. polish” scouting debate. Listed at 6’6”, 270 pounds, Ansah burst onto the college football scene this year with an athletic style of play that prompted comparisons to Jason Pierre-Paul. In the days leading up to the Senior Bowl, some were suggested that Ansah could be considered in the top half of the first round with a strong performance in pre-draft evaluations.

Such is the ebb and flow of evaluating draft prospects in January. That isn’t to say that Ansah won’t prove worthy of a mid-first round (or better) draft slot by the end of April, but there are multiple reasons to suggest caution.

On tape, Ansah’s athleticism is notable. He was used in multiple roles at BYU after quickly earning more playing time at the start of the 2012 season. That versatility – he was used in a standup edge rushing role and as an interior rusher in addition to more traditional defensive end roles – and his consistent effort to the whistle is endearing to defensive coordinators who need adaptable players in the huddle. Ansah also shows an ability to use his hands to control offensive linemen when playing the run far beyond what’s normally seen in a player who has taken so few college repetitions.

But there are holes in Ansah’s game. He doesn’t show an explosive first step or consistent edge rushing talent. That hurts him against better competition. It’s been evident during Senior Bowl practices and he’ll face much better than the offensive tackles he’s facing in Mobile in the NFL. He also has a maddening habit of turning his back to the line of scrimmage when engaged by an offensive lineman on run plays.

Some of that can be corrected with coaching and further development, but it’s the lack of an elite pass rush (edge rush, bull rush or array of counter moves) and questionable football speed in small spaces that worries me. If I’m looking at a defensive end in the top half of the first round, I want to see at least one elite skill.

Athleticism and versatility are valuable, but they must translate into regular instances of dominance against college competition to warrant such a high draft pick. Scouting is far from an exact science, but it’s critical to avoid an Aaron Maybin while mining for a Jason Pierre-Paul. I think Ansah will be worthy of a late first – early second round pick come April, but it’s not time to jump on the runaway bandwagon just yet.

Reads Listens Views 1/11/2013

Combine this lunch at Saucy Q with the New York Times Fifth Down Blog Practice Reports and you almost have the complete Senior Bowl experience at home. Photo by Cecil Lammey.
Combine this lunch at Saucy Q with the New York Times Fifth Down Blog Practice Reports and you almost have the complete Senior Bowl experience at home. Photo by Cecil Lammey.

New RSP Blog Menus

I’m always looking for ways to improve content navigation on this site. Yesterday, I added an NFL Draft menu that features links to all player analysis I featured on this blog, Football Outsiders, and the New York Times Fifth Down. These pieces are on individual pages according to the year I published them: 2011, 2012, and (thus far) 2013. Players are listed by position and alphabetized. Hopefully this makes your life easier.

Prepayment for the 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio is Available

If you’re one of my readers who, over the years, has convinced me to offer prepayment (thank you), now’s the time. The 2013 RSP is available for $19.95 and will be available for download April (as usual). You also get the post-draft add-on a week after the draft that includes tiered fantasy rankings, average dynasty draft spot data, team fit analysis, sleepers, UDFAs to watch, and dynasty drafting tips. It’s a second magazine-sized publication that is included with the purchase of the pre-draft publication. Past issues (2006-2012) are available for $9.95 apiece and the RSP donates 10 percent of every sale to Darkness to Light to train communities to recognize and prevent the dynamics of sexual abuse.

Senior Bowl

Once again, I’ll be at the Senior Bowl with Jene Bramel and Cecil Lammey. We’ll be covering practices and media night for the New York Times Fifth Down and Lammey’s ESPN affiliate as well as providing analysis and interviews here. Stay tuned.

Views

[youtube=http://youtu.be/fLqxDYTbxhk]

Football Reads

Non-Football Reads

Listens

[youtube=http://youtu.be/n6ioqgxaA-E]

 

 

 

Reads Listens Views 1/4/2013

Has the RSP been your MVP (Most Valuable Publication)? The 2013 edition, like Adrian Peterson, is on schedule (Photo by Langzi).
Has the RSP been your MVP (Most Valuable Publication)? The 2013 edition, like Adrian Peterson, is on schedule  to deliver the goods (Photo by Langzi).

Now Accepting Prepayment for the 2013 RSP

I’m spending the weekend with a bunch of Footballguys  watching the playoffs and talking shop. Meanwhile here’s some welcome news for those of you who have asked me when you can prepay for the 2013 RSP. The answer is now: If you wish to prepay for the April 1 download of the 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio, you can do so at www.mattwaldman.com. I have already evaluated 130 skill players for the 2013 edition and just like last year, included with the purchase of the RSP will be access to download the wildly popular, Post-Draft Add-On. I publish this updated analysis after the NFL Draft and it includes updated positional rankings, tiered fantasy rankings, ceiling scores, and a ton of post-draft analysis that comes as part of the 2013 RSP purchase. With 10 percent of each sale going to Darkness to Light, it’s a must-have for draftniks, football fans, and fantasy owners.

New RSP Blog Series – The Boiler Room

Photo by Sebastian Niedlich
Photo by Sebastian Niedlich

[People] don’t like to break a player down, look at his particulars. That involves details. Most people get bored with details. Because in order to look at the details, you have to love what you’re doing, and you have to be highly motivated. I loved playing football. I relished the details.

– Jim Brown

One of the challenges involved with player analysis is to be succinct with delivering the goods. As the author of an annual tome, I’m often a spectacular failure in this respect. Even so, I will often study a prospect and see a play unfold that does a great job of encapsulating that player’s skills. When I witness these moments, I imagine that if I were part of the production team at a major network putting together highlights for a draft show or I was working for an NFL organization creating cut-ups for a personnel director, I try to imagine if this highlight will boil down this prospect to his essentials.

That’s the thinking behind The Boiler Room – analysis of what makes a player worth drafting by boiling down as much as I can into a single play. Unlike the No-Huddle Series, The Boiler Room is focused on prospects I expect to be drafted, and often before the fourth round. My first subject of the series will be 2013 Rose Bowl MVP Stepfan Taylor. Read it Monday morning.

Views – Kenny Garret, Kenny Kirkland, Jeff “Tain” Watts, and Robert Hurst Blowing the Roof Off

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UFM9tIKZGjk&feature=share&list=PLX1Nx57UJgZkH87bmhCgXsp0QxzlCVPXZ]

Listens

Football Reads

Non-Football Reads

  • The Lives They Lived  – A good series that featured those who died in 2012 by focusing on how they lived.
  • Living Apart: Fair Housing In America – There were three pillars created to desegregate America. Perhaps the most important is the one that is least enforced.
  • Segregation Study – See how things of changed (Atlanta) or how they basically stayed the same (Cleveland).

Chicken or Egg: RB Stefphon Jefferson or Nevada Scheme?

The chicken or egg argument in football is between the individual and the team. One example is junior RB Stepfon Jefferson or Nevada's offensive scheme (artwork by Banksy, photo by Jan Slangen).
The chicken or egg argument in football is between the individual and the team. One example is junior RB Stefphon Jefferson or Nevada’s offensive scheme (Artwork by Banksy. Photo by Jan Slangen).

Nevada running back Stefphon Jefferson declared for the NFL Draft this week. Looking at the numbers, it’s hard to blame him. Although he only had 73 carries as a freshman and sophomore, his junior year blew away all expectations:

  •  375 carries and 397 total touches
  • 5.0 yards-per-carry average
  • 1883 yards rushing
  • 2053 yards from scrimmage
  • 25 total touchdowns

Jefferson only had one game in this year with fewer than 20 carries and seven of those contests were 30-carry workloads. Listed at 5-11, 210 pounds, the junior runner has the build to add another 5-10 pounds, which would make him a prospect with suitable dimensions to become a potential lead back or feature runner if going strictly by these numbers.

It’s also worth noting that Jefferson is a patient runner.  He does a good job of pressing a hole and cutting back to the open lane. I’m impressed with how he allows his blocks to develop and hits the hole at a good angle – often doing so with a decisive burst. The problem is that behind all of these positive details is a runner who might be more of a product of this Nevada Wolfpack scheme. In the right NFL system, Jefferson has enough positives to develop into a contributor. The key phrase is “the right NFL system,” because in the wrong one, he might not make the team.

There are several issues that I’ll address in the 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio, but the most glaring one is something that I first hoped were flashes of maturity rather than a deficiency in his game. Most backs I see in the college game tend to use their speed, quickness, and agility to bounce runs outside or attempt risky cutbacks. I’ve coined this tendency as Taking It to The Corner StoreThis syndrome can be fatal for a running back’s career, but it generally has a strong recovery rate. Jamaal Charles, LeSean McCoy, and C.J. Spiller recovered nicely. The last known career casualty has been Laurence Maroney.

It’s unusual when a player has the opposite problem and doesn’t possess the cutback skills to bounce runs away from penetration or take advantage of larger cutback lanes to the opposite guard or tackle. So when I first saw Jefferson eschew a cutback lane and lower his head into the line of scrimmage to get what was available ahead, I wanted to believe he was taking a wiser course of action that I criticize many back for ignoring. Unless I see something different in the next few months, this is not the case.

Jefferson lacks the ability to make sharp, explosive, lateral cuts. Like Darren McFadden, he’s more of a run bender than a slasher. McFadden’s ability to bend runs at top speed makes him an exceptional case among NFL runners, because few straight-ahead, speed runners succeed in this era of pro football without pro-caliber, NFL lateral agility. Based on what I have seen from Jefferson, I don’t see a back with McFadden’s speed.

Here are six runs of Jefferson’s from Nevada’s bowl game against Arizona that illustrate why Chris Ault’s pistol attack complements Jefferson’s style while masking weaknesses that could limit the runner’s appeal in the NFL Draft. These runs are representative of the 30-plus attempts I saw from Jefferson against the Wildcats: carries through large holes or attempts where Jefferson could bend a run towards a secondary crease after passing through a large primary hole.

Big Holes, Big Plays

Ault’s run system isn’t purely a gap or zone scheme. For the uninitiated, a gap (or angle blocking) scheme is a ground attack where lineman pull or trap to a specific spot and the runner is suppose to run to that one area of the line and use his strength and speed to get whatever he can through the crease that the line creates. A zone scheme allows a runner to have several options to enter the line of scrimmage and the blocking tends to be slanting in a direction without the pulling of linemen.

Ault uses both methods in his offense and Jefferson’s vision is good enough that he produces well with both styles of plays. However, his style works best with gap schemes because he’s more of a straight-line runner who likes to hit the hole hard and fast. Here’s a 14-yard touchdown with 6:00 in the half that is a great angle blocking play from a 12 personnel pistol set with an unbalanced line and twin receivers on the strong side.

This is one of my favorite pistol runs. because of the alignment of the wing back.

This is one of my favorite pistol runs. because of the alignment of the wing back. Ault has designed this offense so the play can be a gap play, a zone play, a play action pass, or a straight pass. There’s a ton of versatility with this alignment and the added flavor of the receiver “ghosting” behind the runner to add the threat of the end around is just another cool wrinkle. What I love about this as a gap play is that most defenses are use to the concept of a guard pulling around center and a fullback entering the hole, but the placement and use of the wing back is just different enough to make it harder for a defender to see what’s coming at him.

Jefferson A2

Although the wing back is essentially a fullback and not far from being an offset blocker in an I formation, the angle is just wide enough that when he pulls across the formation the defender can choose the wrong gap or run right through the tunnel and mistake that light on the other side as something less painful than a 255-pound freight train. The linebacker in orange considers the gap outside the puling guard before opting for the gap to the guard’s inside shoulder. Does he see the pulling wing back? If he does, it’s still a tough angle to get good position to hit and shed that block to the ball carrier. Here’s the red zone angle of the play.

Endzone view from No. 38's perspective.
Endzone view from No. 38’s perspective.
No.38 takes one step outside to cover the gap outside left guard.
No.38 takes one step outside to cover the gap outside left guard.
No.38 is outside the pulling guard and waiting on the runner's approach, but does he really see what's lurking around the corner? Why do I feel like I'm diagramming a shark attack? I like it.
No.38 is outside the pulling guard and waiting on the runner’s approach, but does he really see what’s lurking around the corner? Why do I feel like I’m diagramming a shark attack? Worse yet, I like it.
Once the LB hops back to the inside because of his read of the RB, he's looking headlong into that 255 lb. freight train.
Once the LB hops back to the inside because of his read of the RB, he’s looking headlong into that 255 lb. freight train.
This isn't a hole, it's a large force field.
This isn’t a hole, it’s a large force field.

Jefferson hits this small canyon and goes untouched for the 14 yards to the end zone. Crazy as it sounds, this is one of the smaller craters that the Nevada line blasts in this contest.

Maturity or Agility Lacking?

Here is a 1st-and-10 with 4:22 in the half from a weak side trips, 11 personnel pistol formation. This run appears to be a zone play to left guard with a zone read for the quarterback to keep it around right end according to the position that the defensive end takes.

Jefferson B1

Jefferson takes the exchange and begins to dip the play to the inside. It’s at this point below where I think there are several ways to read and react to this play.

Jefferson B2

The elite athlete with great instincts to take risks that coaches at first find themselves on the sidelines screaming “No, no, no. . .yes, yes, YES!!!” is going to anticipate this opening with the yellow arrow before the snap or early after the play begins. He’ll also have the speed and agility to create a lane to work around the tight end and burst into the secondary for a long gain. This is a rarity even among terrific prospects because on the surface it looks like the decision of a really bad player. However the greats often break fundamental rules and get away with it due to special athleticism or anticipation.

The most common decision is the pink arrow to left end. This is where most top athletes with risk-taking, corner store tendencies will try to bounce a run once they work to left guard and don’t see a crease. This is the decision they have to curb when they reach the NFL because the percent chance they break it is much lower than the success rate in college football.

It’s the blue line that is the most sensible, conservative choice. Find the soft spot in the line, lower the pads, and bull through it. Keep the offense on schedule, don’t risk the loss of yardage, and you might possibly break through the line for a big play. In other words, let the defense make the mistake rather than you making the mistake.

Jefferson B3

This is exactly what Jefferson does. He approaches the soft spot, puts his head down, gets two yards untouched, and then bulls against the backs of his linemen for another four as they push the pile together for a total of six. It’s a mature play and the positive of this choice is that Jefferson can develop into the type of NFL back that will get what his line gives him. It makes him a potentially reliable option. A zone scheme running game will want a more creative running back in situations other than this play where the runner has more room to operate. Let’s look at a play or two that calls for more agility.

Failed Cutback

Here is a two-yard gain on a 1st-and-10 sweep to the strong side of an unbalanced line and twin strong side receivers with 0:58 in the first quarter. The guards pull to the strong side of this pistol formation run and Jefferson either bounces the run outside or, more frequently, works between the pulling guards.

 Jefferson C1

The two pulling guards opt to double team the penetration up the middle.
The two pulling guards opt to double team the penetration up the middle.

As Jefferson rounds the corner he has a couple of lanes to chose from. What I see from this play as it progresses is a back with the vision necessary to create, but he lacks the physical agility to execute what he sees happening before him. The runner spots the unblocked middle linebacker early in this play. He’s a player a runner behind two pulling guards is expected to see blocked by one of them, but due to penetration this won’t be the case. Jefferson opts to stretch the play a little more to the outside, but remains patient about his decision.

Jefferson C3

Jefferson has a few decisions: hit the hole with the middle linebacker, split the tight end and receiver’s blocks at the hash, or work outside the hash to the flat. The first open is a minimal gain at best without some creative thinking. The second option is inadvisable because the defender’s helmet is position in a place where there’s no way Jefferson will split these defenders and get  positive yards. The third option require great burst because that same defender on the tight end is in position to work through the block and tackle the runner trying to bounce it outside – and likely for a loss.

Jefferson C4

This screen shot above is a big reason why I believe Jefferson has the vision, but lacks the physical skills to execute like an elite runner. The Nevada runner opts to take another step or two outside to press the linebacker outside and based on his footwork above, cut behind his inside blocker and force that middle linebacker to overrun his angle. It’s a great idea, but it takes top-flight agility to execute. Matt Forte could do it. Jamaal Charles? No problem. LeSean McCoy could probably add a second move in succession that would increase AA battery sales that day in the Philadephia metropolitan area due to the insane amount of rewinding going on in Eagles fan households.

Unfortunately, Jefferson can’t. Where his feet are position in the shot above is where his momentum must stop and change direction with no wasted movement. If he can do it, he cuts behind the blocker to his left. If not, he skids into the oncoming defenders. The result below shows the skid in progress.

The yellow circle is where Jefferson was and where he needed to be to make this cutback.
The yellow circle is where Jefferson was and where he needed to be to make this cutback.

The outcome of the play is Jefferson getting hit head-on and knocked backwards before he can change direction. He had to gear down to make this cut back. This is where a jump cut or lateral plant and sharp change of direction makes a huge difference. There were other plays in this game where I’ve seen Jefferson break though a large hole at the line of scrimmage, see a defender making his way into the lane and the runner finding a much smaller secondary lane between two linemen and squeeze through to transform a four-yard play into an eight-yard play. Good vision, but the play didn’t require a sharp cutback.

This one did, and it’s representative of other plays where he misses a chance to execute a cut back or opt to barrel ahead and lower the pads for a minimal gain because he knows the cutback isn’t a part of his skill set. These aren’t the risky type of cutbacks, either. Jefferson has some real positives to his game, but his physical creativity doesn’t match what he sees.

As a straight-line runner with burst, decisiveness, and patience, he reminds me of the best of what I use to see from a back like Michael Bennett, the former Wisconsin star and Vikings starter. Jefferson lacks Bennett’s top-end speed, which is also why I have doubts the the Nevada back may struggle to find a place in the NFL.

Jefferson’s 2012 production makes it a good time for him to declare for the NFL Draft, because it’s unlikely he repeats those numbers as a senior. However, his lack of agility is an indicator that he may have benefited more from great team execution of a good scheme. Throw in his difficulties with pass protection and I’ll be surprised if he has smooth and immediate transition to an NFL lineup.

For more analysis of skill players like this post, download the 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio available April 1. Prepayment is available now. Better yet, if you’re a fantasy owner the 56-page Post-Draft Add-on comes with the 2013 RSP at no additional charge. Best, yet, 10 percent of every sale is donated to Darkness to Light to combat sexual abuse. You can purchase past editions of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio for just $9.95 apiece.

Walk on The Wildside: Notes From the RSP Bunker

Can you guess a person's native state by his name? Apparently my wife could with Cordarrelle Patterson. Happy New Year (photo by Nashville Corps).
Can you guess a person’s native state by his name? Apparently my wife could with Cordarrelle Patterson. Happy New Year (photo by Nashville Corps).

It’s been a productive summer and fall at the RSP Film Room. I am closing in on finishing  play-by-play evaluations of 130 different skill position players as my winter vacation is ending and I thought I’d provide a few highlights of what I’ve seen this week. Most of this is lighthearted analysis in three short segments: My Readers Are Smart…But My Wife Might Be Smarter; Duke Johnson: Signs of a Waldman Family Apocalypse; and Big Nasty.

My Readers Are Smart…

I love when I write about one player and I get numerous questions about a different one. This happened with my analysis of Justin Hunter. The Tennessee wide receiver is a freakish talent, but potentially one of the riskiest players at the top of this draft class because of poor habits on both the practice field and on game day. My readers continued to ask me about his teammate Cordarrelle Patterson. I knew I’d eventually get to Patterson but I waited for my vacation because I figured I was going to see something fun and when I enjoy watching a player, I get so pumped up that I have trouble sleeping if I’m studying games at night. Patterson hasn’t disappointed:

[youtube=https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=hIZwwkdSjiY#t=72s]

His 44-yard run after the catch for a 58-yard gain was just one of many like it. In fact, I wonder if Patterson’s terrific instincts and vision in the open field are making Hunter try to do the same things – and fail miserably at it. Hunter is so gifted, I sometimes think he’s trying to mimic his teammate and is in denial that he can’t match Patterson.

But My Wife Might Be Smarter.

The best highlight of the night was probably what happened after my wife walked into the office, saw Patterson make this run, and asked me his name. When I told her, she said that with a name like that he’s probably from South Carolina.  Sure enough, Rock Hill, S.C.  

I had to test her further.

“How about Stepfret Williams?”

“Definitely, from the South.”

“Well yeah, but what state?”

“Probably the South a lot of folks up North are scared about – rural Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana.”

Yep, Louisiana. If this were a game at a fair, we would have enough giant stuffed animals to start an E-Bay business if we weren’t banned from the theme park altogether.

Duke Johnson: Signs of a Waldman Family Paradox 

My wife went to school at UNC Chapel Hill.  According to her, I have to say the Chapel Hill part or else I’m not qualifying it correctly. A native North Carolinian is particular about their UNCs. When I’m feeling like getting a rise out of her I bring up the Tar Hell-Blue Devil rivalry and it’s the only time I get threats about divorce. [Editor’s Note: This was a complete Freudian slip on my part. It is “Tar Heel.” Unless of course, you’re a Dukie.]

“Alicia, what if one of our kids wants to go to Duke?”

“No kid of ours will ever go to Duke. Why are you even asking me such a stupid question?”

“Wait a minute, you mean to tell me that if one of our kids earned a scholarship to Duke, they couldn’t go?”

“Again, this is a dumb-ass question. Our kids will know that Duke is kidding itself when it says it’s the Harvard of the South. Who says that? Harvard is Harvard. Stop. It’s over. You haven’t gotten in. If you have to describe yourself on the back of another school then you know what’s really going on there.”

“So what if our kid earned a basketball scholarship to Duke?”

“Our kid will earn an academic scholarship and will be smart enough to realize that most Duke ball players wind up playing in Europe.”

“What if our kid chooses Duke because there is a specific program that few other schools of its quality offer?”

“Then you’re gonna have to move out and live in Durham with them in an apartment and you ain’t comin’ back home, that’s for sure.”

With lines drawn like these, it stands to reason that the only “Duke” that I can mention in the house without risking a night on the couch is the one who shares my wife’s maiden name and plays at my first university – Miami. Even so, when I invoke his name she gets a look on her face like I named a kid Hitler Rosenberg, or Hashtag Smith.   If you haven’t seen the freshman running back, check out these two touchdown runs against Boston College. You’ll be hearing a lot about this ACC Freshman of The Year soon enough.

[youtube=http://youtu.be/7VGs_szTbwo]

Johnson reminds me of that old East Carolina Johnson. Perhaps not as fast, but the new Miami version has even better balance.

Big Nasty

The tight end class might be the gem of the skill positions in the 2013 draft. Cincinnati Travis Kelce is one of many impressive prospects I’ve watched this year, including this weekend. He’s one of the best blockers I’ve seen at the position and because Cincinnati runs a pistol offense, Kelce plays the H-Back role to perfection. His dimensions are Gronkowski-like and he’s a big, aggressive, and nasty run blocker. He also has fluid athleticism and at 265 pounds, you don’t see a tight end move like this unless he has starter potential in the NFL.

[youtube=http://youtu.be/nBIK_P5c6c4]

I know the Washington Redskins have Fred Davis, but as I mentioned to my Football Outsiders cohorts this weekend, if Washington wants to find a player who can take over if Davis’ Achilles tear doesn’t recover sufficiently, or he opts to sue himself and represent both parties in a court of law, Kelce would be a fantastic fit for Robert Griffin. Then the “Shanaclan,” – as my buddy Bloom calls Mike and Kyle – can end the Niles Paul-tight end experiment and keep him as a receiver and kick return specialist.

Happy New Year!

The Rookie Scouting Portfolio Publication: A Q&A

New to the Rookie Scouting Portfolio blog? Haven’t heard of the RSP publication? Heard of it, but haven’t given it a try? Learn more about this annual publication that has been available for download every April 1 for the past seven years and why it has become a fave among draftniks and fantasy football owners.

BTW – Best pre-draft scouting report on every conceivable guy [at the skills positions] is by @MattWaldman. Very good read – mattwaldman.com

Chris Brown, author of Smartfootball.com and Grantland contributor, via Twitter

Q: What is the purpose of the RSP?

The RSP isn’t a draft-prediction publication, it’s an analysis of talent based on a player performance on the field.  This can help draftniks learn more about the talent of players without worrying about the machinations of the draft that are often an entirely different animal from talent evaluation. The evaluation techniques for the RSP are designed to target a player’s athletic skills, positional techniques, and conceptual understanding of the game. It also makes a great resource for fantasy football players.

Q: What makes the RSP different from other draft analysis?

I use an extensively documented process and I make the work available for the reader to see – although I don’t send them through a forced death march through the material. As a reader, you don’t have to feel the pain I had writing it – the masochism is provided at your convenience.

Still, the process is important to talk about. It has helped me arrive at high pre-draft grades for many underrated players, including Russell Wilson, Matt Forte, Ahmad Bradshaw, Dennis Pitta, Arian Foster and Joseph Addai. Where it really makes a difference is when I’m studying a player in a game where the competition limits a player’s statistical success and I’m still able to see the talent shine through. Likewise, this process has helped me spot critical issues with players like Stephen Hill, Isaiah Pead, Matt Leinart, Robert Meachem, and C.J. Spiller when others anticipated an early, and often immediate, impact.  

Q: The RSP is huge, but you say it is easy to read and navigate. How is it structure? Is it iPad-friendly?

The easiest way to describe the RSP is that it’s an online publication with two main parts:

  • The front part most people read, which is the same length of any draft magazine you see at the newsstand.
  • The back part that my craziest, most devoted, and masochistic readers check out – all the play-by-play analysis of every player I watch.

The RSP has a menu that allows you to jump to various parts of the publication so the crazy detail in the back doesn’t swallow you whole and you never return to reality. I continue to provide the back part because many of my readers love to know that I back up my analysis with painstaking work. In that sense they are also sadists, but being the ultimate masochist that I am – I appreciate their sadism.

“The GoodReader app takes anything I want to read in PDF form, presents it very nicely, and makes the document portable and enjoyable. The encyclopedia that you’ve created (which I absolutely love 25% into it) would require someone to peer into his or her computer/laptop screen for a very long time. On an iPad inside that app it bookmarks your place and makes reading long files a joy…AND PORTABLE.”

-Ray Calder

Q: How is The Rookie Scouting Portfolio rooted in best practices?

I managed a large branch of a call center and eventually had responsibility for the performance evaluation of over 70 call centers around the U.S. I began my career from the bottom-up. I was heavily involved in recruiting, hiring, training, and developing large and small teams of employees.I often had to build large teams that competed with a client’s internal call enter and with a fraction of the budget to train and develop in terms of time and money.

We beat them consistently.

One of the biggest reasons was a focus on instituting quality processes. We figured out what was important to us, how to prioritize it’s importance, and how to evaluate our employs in a fair, consistent, and flexible manner to spot the good and bad. Eventually, my company sent me to an organization that provided training for best-practice performance techniques that successful Fortune 500 businesses tailored to their service and manufacturing sectors.

The most important thing I learned that applies to the RSP is best practices for monitoring performance. Although the original purpose for my training was to monitor representatives talking with customers over the phone, these techniques also made sense to apply to personnel evaluation in other ways. Football is one of them.

Think the NFL couldn’t use a best-practice approach? Read about its current evaluation system and what former scouts have to say about the management of that process and you’ll think differently. The RSP approach makes the evaluation process transparent to the reader and helps the author deliver quality analysis.

Another “best practice” I’m implementing in 2012 is “giving back.” Ten percent of each sale in 2012 is going to charity.

Q: What do readers think of the RSP?

I collect these emails like one of my favorite pizza joints in Colorado collects napkin drawings from customers and places them all over the walls of its restaurant. If you have one you want to send me, please feel free. I’ll add them my list. Here are some of them below:

“If you don’t buy the RSP, be prepared to get dominated in your rookie draft by someone that did.”

– Jarrett Behar, Staff writer for Dynasty League Football and creator of Race to the Bottom.

“In complete awe of the 2007 Rookie Scouting Portfolio via @MattWaldman — Incredibly in-depth analysis that required time & football smarts”

– Ryan Lownes, NFL Draft analyst, writer or DraftBreakdown.com.

“Any diehard #Dynasty #fantasyfootball fan should go get @MattWaldman’s Rookie Scouting Portfolio bit.ly/I4fOa2 You’ll thank me later”

-@JamesFFB NFL Draft analyst, enthusiast, and writer for DraftBreakdown.com and Bleacher Report.

“For someone like me who doesn’t closely follow the college game, there is nothing I have found even vaguely measuring up to your thoroughness and point by point analysis of the draftable rookies. Among my favorite things is that at the core you rely on play rather than comparing stats produced or combine numbers. Measurables I can get anywhere, but numbers offer little perspective on what they mean or what factors together created them. I want to know what a guy looks like out there, who plays fast – rather than who runs fast in shorts with no one to dodge or avoid. Which WRs can and can’t run routes or consistently get separation or catch with their hands or fight off defenders to make contested catches. Your exhaustive package gives me a basis to work from including a careful look at every significant player. I can read and add the views and comments and stats I want to like ornaments on the Christmas tree – where that tree is the foundation of player abilities that you weave together into a ranked whole.

I have no way to know how right or wrong your conclusions are. You certainly don’t shy away from controversial evaluations. But overall, for just plain understanding of who the rookies are, how they play and what we might expect in the NFL – I don’t know of anything close. After reading this tome, I would feel blind and naked walking into a rookie draft next year without having that insight. My huge thanks!”

Catbird, Footballguys.com message boards

“Love your work. I’ve subscribed to your RSP for the past 3 years and it is my bible for dynasty league rookie drafts.”

– David Liu

“In our business, we are able to access many different types of reference materials. The Rookie Scouting Portfolio stands above the rest for one simple fact: it is more comprehensive than anything else I have seen. Matt Waldman is head and shoulders the best fantasy football expert I have had on the air, and his expertise starts well before the players get to the NFL with analysis and game film study of the incoming rookie class. I can’t recommend the RSP highly enough.”

– Ian Furness
Host, Sports Radio 950 KJR
Seattle, WA

“All I can really say at first is “Wow!” There is just a TON of great and useful information packed into that report. I thought I’d give it a quick glance during my lunch hour and I found myself reading quite a bit of it over the next 2 hours. I like the way everything is laid out. It’s easy to understand and covers all the items necessary to make it a top notch scouting report for the fantasy footballer.

– Tim Huckaby

“IMHO this is a MUST read. Matt really does the work and tells it the way he sees it. Had a couple of GREAT picks this year with Austin Collie and and I think Stafford. In prior years, he has lead me to Ray Rice in a PPR no less and Mike Sims Walker… If you are like me in a Zealots league, go back and read the prior years as it helps with the RFA/UFA process.”

– Tony Madeira

Hey Matt,

Just thought you would want to know that I enjoyed the 2012 Rookie Scouting Portfolio so much that I had to buy the other six years, to see what you had to say about previous players. I’ve been playing fantasy football for over 20 years (started at age 11) and I can’t tell you how refreshing it is to see someone put this much effort into analyzing prospects skills, and then filtering that info back to their potential fantasy value.

Not sure if you have a running testimonial page but if your ever inclined to do so, feel free to use this email as one, if you wish.

Not trying to kiss your butt or anything but your work is really an inspiration for someone like myself.

Thank you for your efforts,

Sean Douglas, FantasyInfo.com’

Download the 2012 RSP or purchase past issues (2006-2011)

 

Reads Listens Views 12/21/2012

One of the books I'm reading. I just finished "The Reader," and "Eye-Tracking the News." About to start "Don't Make Me Think."
One of the books I’m reading. I just finished “The Reader,” and “Eye-Tracking the News.” About to start “Don’t Make Me Think.”

My weekly list of links, tunes, and reads (football and otherwise), in addition to a thank you for supporting this blog and the annual Rookie Scouting Portfolio Publication. This includes a new ‘No-Huddle Series’ piece, Some serious saxophone playing, a good mock draft from Russ Lande, a piece from Sports on Earth, and Omer Avital. Check it.

Listens – Best Stop-Time Solo Ever

[youtube=http://youtu.be/S88-MqAVk3w]

Sonny Rollins, Kennedy Honors Recipient

Thank You

Things at the RSP are about to ramp up. I am already ahead of schedule with my game study and I hope that my holiday break will get me in position to have attained 75-80 percent of my player goal for the 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio. This means I’ll continue to provide in-depth, play-by-play analysis and essays about prospects on the blog – including Senior Bowl coverage both here and at the New York Times Fifth Down. 

If you haven’t read the 2012 RSP, you ought to check it out. The pre-draft and post-draft publications are a package set and the feedback this year was tremendous. I will be doing the same with the 2013 publication, making the pre-draft available for download (as always) on April 1 and the post-draft publication available one week after the NFL Draft. The option to prepay – as you’ve requested – will be available the same time as last year – more on that in January.

This promotion of my work ahead comes with a thank you to those of you who read and support the blog as well as my publication. I have fantastic readers. I wish I could spend more time corresponding with those of you who take the time to send me quality stuff on a regular basis. It is something I value even if I can’t always respond in kind with equal time and effort.

Football Reads

Non-Football Reads

Views

Lyle Lovett Tiny Desk Concert

Omer Avital In Concert

What is Integrated Technique?

Brandon Lloyd embodies the term
Brandon Lloyd embodies the term “integrated skill sets,” see below. Photo by Jeffery Beall.

In the world of draftniks, the word ‘intangibles’ is often a catchall term that explains a smart player without NFL skill sets. Sometimes those using the term make the mistake to include players who possess what I call an integrated skill set. Find out what that means and why it’s the difference between a good prospect and a good NFL player

I dislike the term ‘intangibles.’ NFL Films analyst and producer Greg Cosell often says that when he hears someone describe a player as either ‘a winner’ or possessing great intangibles his first reaction is that it’s probably a sign that he can’t play. It’s practically a sound byte of his between February and August.

I understand his inclination to make this conclusion, because if no physical skill or positional craft come to mind as the first things you’d say about a player then it’s a potential red flag. It’s like a man or woman describing a potential date for a friend as having a great personality but omitting any description of looks. Just like dating, we want to be physically impressed by football players.

There are players with good, if not great, physical skills but what really separates them from the pack is their ability to make unusual or consistently timely plays. Sometimes these plays are a matter of awareness of what’s happening on the field that few can assimilate into action this fast. Other examples involve more physical skill that happens at such a high rate of speed and fluidity of movement that the act appears instinctive.

I don’t believe it’s instinctive. I believe it’s learned behavior. Perhaps intuitive, but even so, I believe intuition comes from experience enough situations to react quickly and in control – especially as an athlete.

Brandon Lloyd is one of the most intuitive pass catchers in the history of the game. His physical dimensions are average at best for an NFL receiver and his speed is below average. But when it comes to his spatial awareness of the ball, his body, his opponent’s body, and the field of play, he’s straight out of the Matrix Trilogy.

[youtube=http://youtu.be/Q31BRc3RgyE]

The first catch on this highlight video is still one of the most amazing feats I have ever seen on a football field. If you haven’t had your quota of sick catches for the day here are more. You’re welcome.

Despite this caliber of talent being easy to spot in receivers, it’s not limited to the position. It’s not limited to football. Knicks point guard Jason Kidd has always had it. It’s why at 39 he’s still playing at a high level.

What these players have in common is a keen awareness and control of one’s body in relationship to his environment. Some might define this as an aspect of on-field awareness or football intelligence. It also qualifies to some degree as uncanny athleticism.

To define this awareness further, I see players like Northern Illinois wide receiver Martel Moore (who you can read about in this Saturday’s Futures at Football Outsiders) exhibit skills that are difficult to teach a player at a stage of development as advanced as someone playing college football: catching the football with a wide radius from one’s body and accurately tracking its arrival from a difficult angle all while gauging the position and distance of an opponent or boundary. This caliber of skill is really an integration of several individual traits like balance, timing, athleticism, and hand-eye coordination. Several prospects are lauded every year for possessing one or more of these individual traits, but they often cannot put them together on the football field when it counts.

Perhaps the best way to describe what I’m talking about is to say that Moore, and players like him, often exhibit what I’m now going to say is an integrated skill set–or Integrated Technique, another way to define the “IT Factor”.

Robert Meachem is a player who has struggled to integrate his skill sets despite having physical talent that is Pro Bowl-caliber. Photo by Vamostigres.
Robert Meachem is a player who has struggled to integrate his skill sets despite having physical talent that is Pro Bowl-caliber. Photo by Vamostigres.

Brandon Lloyd has integrated skill sets. Robert Meachem has a bunch of physical skills that don’t integrate well on the football field and it’s why he routinely struggles. David Wilson and Bryce Brown have some amazing amounts of integrated skill sets, but ball security was so disconnected with the rest of their games that they have required an adjustment period despite flashing a ton of talent. Colin Kaepernick’s arm, physical strength, and speed, intelligence at the line of scrimmage, and accuracy on timing throws are becoming integrated skill sets. However, ball placement according to the location of the receiver in relation to coverage is not yet integrated into his game. If it were, Randy Moss and Vernon Davis would have each scored twice against the Patriots.

As this 2013 draft evaluation season unfolds and you read my description of a player possessing integrated skill sets, think back to this explanation. It may not mean that the player is ready to start in the NFL, but the description will indicate that his physical skills, his mental processing of his techniques, and his awareness the environment around him are integrated at a level that he’s more often ‘playing’ rather than ‘thinking.’ His processor speed is high and that’s the difference between talented NFL prospects and productive NFL players.

The 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio will be available for pre-order in March. The 2012 RSP is available for download and past issues (2006-2011) are available for $9.95. Ten percent of all sales are donated to Darkness to Light to help train communities to understand and prevent the dynamics of sexual abuse.