Posts tagged RSP

The Little Things That Make Sammy Watkins A Big Deal

February 16, 2014 0 Comments read Reads Listens Views

Watkins has the upside to lap the field of some fine receiver prospects when it comes to NFL potential. Photo by PDA.Photo.

The great strength of Sammy Watkins’ game is in the finer details.

If Sammy Watkins didn’t possess excellent hands and speed, he wouldn’t be a top prospect at his position. However, it’s the little things that make Watkins a special prospect.

Weeks ago, I profiled Allen Robinson’s penchant for leaving his feet to catch targets thrown at a height where he could have maintained his feet during the act of the reception. Consistent application of this detail will earn Robinson greater opportunities for yards after the catch.

Robinson is already a fine ball carrier, but even at 6’3″, 210-215 pounds, he’s better at avoiding defenders than he is running through tackles. This is based on watching Robinson at Indiana, Wisconsin, Ohio State, Central Florida, and Nebraska).

Attention to detail is an essential reason why Watkins is ahead of the rest of his draft classmates. The Clemson receiver is like a jazz musician playing in a pop band – few appreciate every nuance because the knowledge often requires hours of study or an enormous intuitive feel for the game to get beyond the environment of the performance to see everything that makes him special.

I’m sharing two plays that provide glimpses into what makes him special, but some miss because they either haven’t seen enough snaps of Watkins or they are too chained to the Clemson scheme to see the skills that transcend it.

The first is a classic case of great process, bad result. I love sharing these plays, because they underscore my belief that behavior is more reliable than the outcome.

The second is a case of great process, great result, and an uncommon play for the Clemson offense. The process also reveals skills that translate to other aspects of Watkins’ game.

Great Process, Bad Result

The play is a 12-personnel, 1×1 receiver set with Watkins as the receiver on the left inside the numbers of the flat. He’s positioned two yards behind the line of scrimmage and the cornerback has outside shade and five yards of depth.

By the way, the Ohio State corner does a fantastic job on this play because he has Watkins one-on-one with no safety help. Here’s the formation pre-snap.

The single safety is at the opposite flat, which is a huge key that Watkins is facing single coverage. Tajh Boyd recognizes this coverage and the opportunity to deliver a quick throw for Watkins to win one-on-one.

However, Boyd’s throw lacks the precision for the situation. Watkins has turned to the quarterback and squared his pads to provide a good target, but Boyd leads the receiver too far into the teeth of the oncoming defender.

Watkins doesn’t react the way I see from countless receivers that I watch in these situations where the ball is thrown above chest-level. The receiver extends his arms away from his body and attacks the ball, but he does not leave his feet.

Watkins also frames his body so his pads and hips are down field and the ball ahead of him. Screen after screen in this game, this receiver gets into this position before catching the ball.

I never see this kind of attention to detail on a screen or throw-out that is one of the simplest routes to execute for a receiver. Moreover, Watkins’ approach is extraordinarily consistent.

Despite the impending contact, Watkins stays true to his process. He understands it gives him the best chance to win the match-up and at worst, prevent a bad outcome.

Watkins’ technique places the receiver in position to make the catch, secure the ball to his sideline arm, and extend his free arm to attack the defender with good pad level and leverage despite the defender’s advantage.

There’s no way Watkins has a chance to contest this hit if not for his pre-catch attention to detail. As the contact collapses Watkins stiff arm, the receiver’s arm and pad level is like a shock absorber.

Watkins has enough balance and leverage to turn sideways through the contact. With the ball high and tight to the outside arm, the receiver withstands the corner’s attempt to rip the ball loose.

All of this sound technique is the reason Watkins is able to absorb the contact, push back and force the defender to the ground. If Watkins doesn’t collide knees with the defender, I believe he runs through the contact up the left flat.

The corner does everything right on this play to win the match-up, but Watkins’ fundamentals make it a win by the slimmest of margins. Don’t be surprised if you see Watkins win some of these plays in the NFL – and win big.

Great Process, Great Result

Watkins’ critics say that the receiver only runs screen plays and he’ll need the right scheme to thrive in the NFL the way he thrives in college football. This statement implies that all he can do well is run screen plays or zone routes.

Here’s a single coverage route – one of the prettiest examples of route running I see in college football.

[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lWDwGTmMypk&start=148&w=560&h=315]

The initial release is patient and a straight line into the body of the defender with good pacing that remains constant throughout the route. One of the things that made Jerry Rice a great route runner was not only the fact that every route looked the same in terms of maintaining a straight line with every release, but also a consistent pace.

Varying speed can be a useful tool, but it’s an attempt to lull an opponent into a lapse of focus. Maintaining a constant speed puts the opponent in a constant state of discomfort.

This straight stem is 12-yards long and the top of the stem features a dip inside with the head turned and then a fantastic head fake outside-inside leading to a second jab-step inside and use of the shoulders that forces the corner to turn his hips. This sequence of moves are all performed without any variance in pace – difficult to do.

By the time Watkins breaks to the corner, he has left the corner in the dust. All of these qualities are performed with the same efficiency I see as a ball carrier – patience, pacing, and layers of moves.

It’s not an indicator of good route running with many receivers, but it’s behavior consistent with Watkins across all aspects of his game.

For analysis of skill players in this year’s draft class, download the 2014 Rookie Scouting Portfolio available April 1. Better yet, if you’re a fantasy owner the 56-page Post-Draft Add-on comes with the 2014 RSP at no additional charge and available for download within a week after the NFL Draft. Best, yet, 10 percent of every sale is donated to Darkness to Light to combat sexual abuse. You can purchase past editions of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio for just $9.95 apiece.

Embracing The Craft of Player Evaluation

February 16, 2014 0 Comments read 2014 NFL Draft

Tony Romo is a perfect Rhorsach for football fans. Photo by Football Schedule. — Tony Romo is a perfect Rorschach for football fans. Photo by Football Schedule.

Player evaluation is an imperfect endeavor. Understanding one’s limitations is a huge step towards getting better at it.

The most compelling thing about the NFL Draft is that no matter how hard it tries, it cannot escape its humanity. It’s this human element that makes player evaluation – and evaluating what good evaluation is – so difficult.

Evaluating human behavior is a craft. It’s not science. It’s not intuition. It’s not history. And it’s not life experience.

It’s all of these things layered with perspective and applied with doses of humility, pride, and appreciation of the perfection of imperfections. It’s limitations and imperfections that are the root of character.

Maurice Jones-Drew and Ray Rice weren’t deemed big enough to carry the load. They are two of the toughest backs in football and proven bell cows.

Larry Fitzgerald, Anquan Boldin, and Brandon Lloyd are too slow to play wide receiver if looking solely at the speed data. However, what they do to catch a football despite these limitations is like a gorgeous birthmark on a model’s face.

Frank Gore is a former physical freak-turned-mortal whose sight, decision-making, and patience make fans wonder “what could have been” if he didn’t suffer two knee injuries that took away his immortality. Tony Romo and Brett Favre have embodied the sum of human failings, but often supplied its most inspiring heights.

I joke that Romo and Favre are often the dividing line among fans who embrace humanity and fans who think we’re better off eliminating humanity and evolving into androids.

Self-loathing aside, it’s the humanity in these players’ games that shine the brightest to fans – the production despite imperfection and the feats that for a briefest moment stretch beyond limitation. Likewise, player analysis is a willingness to both embrace and stretch beyond the humanity inherent in the process.

Every human being has characteristics of their personality that, depending on the situation, will have positive or negative expression. If one looks hard enough, this is true of scouts, writers, and draftniks when they evaluate prospects.

We all have several of these traits, but there is often a few predominant traits that are easier to notice. One of mine is persistence-stubbornness.

A positive side of its expression in my work is that I’m often thorough and steadfast with my analysis. A negative side in my work appears when I’m stubborn about process to the point that I can miss the forest while examining the trees.

I am also drawn to the underdog or the troubled soul. It’s part of my personality imprint.

I’m less likely to judge players with checkered pasts. Before I developed more life experience and caution, I was more likely to give trouble a second or third chance to the detriment of my analysis.

I’m not alone. There are scouts, writers, and draftniks drawn to players that I call bright and shiny objects – players who possess eye-popping physical skills, but lack the refined play of a consistent, reliable starter.

These folks see potential and have the vision to see how it will blossom in a positive way. But they are sometimes to their detriment a slave to it the way Bill in Kill Bill had a thing for blondes.

Other people latch onto one thing about a player. It might be the overriding characteristic that makes a player successful despite flaws in his game that others nitpicked to death.

At the same time, these people are also famous for spotting a potential flaw that is not the overriding factor for success or failure and it derails their analysis. They turn into the nitpicker.

Then there are the data guys who often generate insights, who at their best, provide a fresh, clear-eyed perspective of players and the game that re-frame the questions we should be asking. At their worst, they think any process that involves data is objective while dismissing information that they cannot yet figure out how to analyze with their tools.

I’m not talking about best analytics practitioners that I know who are working behind the scenes in the NFL. These individuals are often the first to tell you that the intuitive and the “subjective” have a place in analysis. These individuals studying the film as much as they study the data.

We all want a silver bullet – an attribute, a stat, or a measurement that will override the imperfection of craft. But player analysis is a craft.

You may not like it. I may not like it. It doesn’t matter.

Picking on Jarvis Landry

February 13, 2014 0 Comments read 2014 NFL Draft, Players, Wide Receiver

I promise, I really do like a lot about Landry’s game, but when a player provides good teaching opportunities, you take it.

I’ve already heard from some LSU fans who feel it was unfair to criticize Landry’s effort in an area where I stated most college receivers aren’t playing at top intensity (run blocking). Forget that I qualified the criticism with the point that Landry is a good prospect. They only see the sore spot.

I will note that Landry’s brother Gerald was a gentleman about it.

Understandable sensitivity from Landry’s big brother. He wants to see his little brother achieve his dream to the greatest extent possible. As I told Gerald, there’s no one in the NFL reading little old me. And if they are, they see quality NFL players – even stars – who have lapses with details that have a collective impact on the outcome of a game.

Sorry LSU fans, I’m not leaving Landry alone. Think of me as the coach who picks on the player because he likes him.

For those of you who need to see something positive about one of your own. Just keep watching this on a loop.

or this . . .

[youtube=http://youtu.be/6HOj7Z58c4o]

Personally, I like the second one better. I’m like the Russian judges in ice skating from the old days (might still be the same, I don’t know, I have no time for the Olympic$), I prefer the routines with a higher degree of difficulty.

With the animated shorts entertaining those in need of positive reinforcement (pacification), let’s look at something that even a super athlete like Landry has room to improve upon. That, my friends, is route running – specifically, the stem.

For those of you not familiar with the stem or “stemming a route”, Tim Gardner gives a brief overview. The main objective of the stem is to force the defender playing single coverage to turn his hips in the opposite direction of the break.

There are several effective ways to perform a good stem. It depends on the route and the position of the opponent. This 1st-and-10 route by Landry at the top of the third quarter against Auburn is an interception that, at first glance, looks like an under-thrown pass.

And it is an under-thrown ball. Zach Mettenberger is delivering the ball from a constricted pocket and cannot get the ball to the location of the flat where Landry makes his break. The lower half of Mettenberger’s frame doesn’t have any follow through during the release. See below (there’s also a good replay following the queued video segment).

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m1GECUhSgiU&start=103&w=560&h=315]

However, there’s more to this play than a short throw. Landry could have done more to ensure that he makes this catch regardless of Mettenberger’s ability to deliver a ball with greater depth on this break and it all has to do with his stem.

Landry is the slot right receiver with the corner playing nine yards off at the hash and directly over the receiver. The route Landry is running is essentially an out to the right flat where he works back to the ball, but the corner undercuts the play from trail position.

The reason the corner is in position to make this play has more to do with Landry’s route than Mettenberger’s throw. Landry begins the route with the cornerback playing an inside shade (see below).

The corner is already in position to anticipate an outside-breaking route. His hips are angled to anticipate his outside break and he’s playing off Landry to the point that he can be patient with the route while keeping an eye on the quarterback.

Landry understands that to beat a cornerback in this position, he’ll need to get the defender to turn his hips to the inside. However, the receiver lacks the patience to do it.

At the top of his stem, Landry executes a jab-step to the inside and then breaks outside. The problem is that Landry’s stem is five yards too short for this route.

The reason we know this stem is too short is where Landry finishes his break (black line). The receiver makes a jab-step inside and then drifts outside to cross the first-down marker before bending his break towards the quarterback. Landry’s route is a long, looping, inefficient path that tips off the cornerback.

One of the best ways to test the patience of a patient cornerback is what you might call “playing chicken.” In other words, the receiver maintains a straight path as if he’s going to run up the corner’s hind parts.

Force the corner to turn or get close enough that when the jab-step is made inside, the corner has no choice but react. That’s selling a route.

The benefit of this longer stem is that the route has more natural depth without tipping off the break and the quarterback doesn’t have to wait a tick longer to throw the ball with greater width-depth. Note the lack of a defined angle in Landry’s break and how he drifts to reach depth.

The cornerback’s hips are already in position to break under Landry. Meanwhile, the receiver is just beginning to round his hips into position to come back to the ball. The hip position tells a lot of this story.

Although Mettenberger hangs the throw, a better route prevents this type of target in the first place. The entire pitch-catch process lacks precision on this play, but the root of the imprecision is on Landry.

Athleticism is pretty. It’s also necessary. But it doesn’t achieve consistency without fundamental technique.

Futures: Louisville S Calvin Pryor

February 12, 2014 0 Comments read 2014 NFL Draft, Players

What does this two-time All-Pro have in common with Calvin Pryor. Ask their DB coach. Photo by Dave Blog. — What does this two-time All-Pro have in common with Calvin Pryor? Ask their DB coach. Photo by Dave Blog.

When it’s all said and done, Teddy Bridgewater might not be the best Louisville player in this draft.

Futures: Louisville S Calvin Pryor

By Matt Waldman

One of my favorite football players during the past 15 years began his college career as a corner, but finished it playing both safety positions and earned a first-team All-America selection. The 39th overall pick in the 2000 NFL Draft, he started all 16 games a rookie. Although he lost the Defensive Rookie of the Year Award to teammate Brian Urlacher, the linebacker often said that it was Mike Brown who was the true leader of the Bears’ vaunted defense.

Brown will turn 36 tomorrow. Due to a series of leg injuries, the two-time All-Pro didn’t have career longevity that will earn his former teammate Urlacher a good shot at the Hall of Fame. However, Brown had all the tools of a fine NFL pro: intensity, intelligence, and the versatility to play in the box or patrol the deepest outposts of the passing game.

So when a player earns a comparison to Brown, it gets my attention. Current Texas defensive coordinator Vance Bedford was Brown’s position coach from 2000-2004. Before Bedford moved with Charlie Strong to Austin, he was the defensive coordinator at Louisville working with junior safety Calvin Pryor, a player Bedford compares favorably to the former Bear.

“He had three games in a row where he hit somebody and they did not finish the game,” Bedford told the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. “He doesn’t want to injury anybody, but he brings a certain physicality that if you’re going to throw the ball down the middle of the field, you’re going to pay a price . . . Calvin Pryor reminds me of a bigger Mike Brown . . . [Brown] was a coach on the field . . . That’s what makes great players. Understanding the entire defense. Calvin Pryor is a lot like that.”

I read this quote from Bradford after watching the six-foot-two-inch Pryor against Central Florida, Rutgers, and Connecticut. A colleague of mine recommended I watch Pryor in September and I’m late to the draftnik party. However, I understand why there are teams that have Pryor ranked higher than Alabama’s Ha Ha Clinton-Dix.

The asset I value the most from Pryor’s game is aggression. He treads the fine line between disruption and recklessness, which can scare some evaluators.

However, good safeties take great angles in a hurry. It’s a skill rooted in confidence and belief of what the player sees on the field.

With notable exceptions where a player demonstrates a lack of overall football intelligence, I prefer an aggressive player with diagnostic skills that a coach can refine than a player that sees valuable keys but doesn’t trust his eyes. When considering the past path towards assertive play, I’d pick aggression over passivity as a football player’s behavioral baseline a majority of the time.

Read the rest at Football Outsiders

RSP Rorschach No.3: Cornell QB Jeff Mathews

February 11, 2014 0 Comments read Matt Waldman

Thrown too early or thrown too late? See below.

Some plays are like Rorschach inkblots because there’s no definitive answer to why they unfold the way they do. This new series examines plays that have more than one viable explanation and may be too difficult to draw a single conclusion. The fun part is that you have a voice in it.

RSP Rorschach No.3: Cornell QB Jeff Mathews

This is 3rd-and-14 pass with 6:25 in the first quarter. The Cornell offense is in a 10 personnel shotgun set at the 24 with the ball at the right hash versus a 3-3-5 defensive look from Princeton. The offense faces a five-man blitz – three defenders coming from the left and two up the middle. The defensive end over right tackle is dropping to the right flat.

Princeton plays an aggressive defense that varies looks (nickel, 3-3-5, 2-4-6, and 3-4 looks) and blitz types all day. There is lots of A-gap pressure, layered blitzes to the same gap with two defenders coming in waves, and lineman dropping into coverage as slot defenders fire off the edge.

It’s the kind of pressure that forces a quarterback to play decisive football, which leads to the question about this pass attempt. Mathews drops from the shotgun looking to the middle, sets his feet, and throws the ball up the seam from the 29 to the slot-right receiver up the seam tot he end zone.

The quarterback over throws the receiver by four yards. The commentator tells the audience during the replay that Mathews was too early with his throw because of the pressure forcing the quarterback to rush the throw.

But is the commentator correct? Could Mathews have waited too long and been forced to lob the ball into a spot that could have been avoided with an earlier release?

See below.

[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AnpFHmHy66I&start=106&w=560&h=315]

There’s no doubt that Mathews throws the ball with air under it but there’s no real arc. It looks more like the trajectory of a fade route where the quarterback expects the receiver to high-point the ball.

It’s good touch for a fade but that is not what this play calls for. While the throw being “long” is often an indication that the throw was too early, this is an intermediate-range pass.

Look at Mathews’ drop and it appears that he waits a tick late before making the decision to throw the ball. If the throws the ball in rhythm, the quarterback would have released the ball earlier and thrown the ball on a line to the inside of the receiver.

Instead, the quarterback waits a tick and lofts the ball so it clears the safety, who otherwise might not have been in range if quarterback threw the ball the moment his back foot hit the ground at the conclusion of the drop. The question is which theory do you buy?

Throw the ball earlier and with velocity on a line drive trajectory and the pass threads the needle of the secondary inside the five and the receiver trots into the end zone? Or, as the commentator noted, the pass rush forced a rushed throw and it arrived too early?

[polldaddy poll=7792661]

As always, you may comment below if you have a different take.

Funny Thing Happened at the Senior Bowl . . .

February 9, 2014 0 Comments read 2014 NFL Draft, Walk on the Wild Side

Only I didn’t get the full extent of the punchline until this evening.

Media Night at the Senior Bowl is a loosely organized event. Imagine four long life rafts filled with sailors in a sea filled with twice as many sharks. In case you’re not too swift on the uptake this evening, the sharks aren’t the football players.

If you’re media, you can either wait for a Senior Bowl PR intern to track down the player you want to interview and bring that player to you (the fish move) or you can hunt them down yourself. Unless I don’t know what the player looks like, I don’t bother with the PR staff.

Halfway through my list of interviews was Lorenzo Taliaferro. The Coastal Carolina running back was seated at a table with a few other guys when I approached him for an interview. Before Taliaferro could respond, a player seating across from him interjected.

“Excuse me, I’d like to interview him first.”

I didn’t recognize the player. He had closed cropped hair and he sported a thin mustache with some chin fuzz. His skin was the shade of mocha.

The player leaned across the table towards Taliaferro holding his phone like a tape recorder.

“Uh, hold on a second . . . this is uh . . . my first time interviewing anyone. I can’t seem to get this recorder to work, can you help me?”

I take a seat next to Taliaferro and watch this guy fumble around with his phone. I can appreciate football players making fun of the media. The first press conference I attended as a student was an after-practice interview with former Georgia coach Ray Goff over 20 years ago.

I brought an old Marantz recorder with me – a device meant more for transcribing music than recording interviews. It was the only thing I had.

When I hit the record button, I had the volume too high and feedback blared through the beginning of the press conference. Some reporters laughed, others seemed horrified, and Goff stared a hole through me.

I didn’t ask the coach any questions for the next two weeks. I thought it was best I let that incident fade away.

This mock malfunction of the recorder didn’t dissuade this player-turned-intrepid-beat-reporter to furrow his brow and fire off a facetious, nonsensical question.

“My first question is . . . how is it going to feel to when you get on the field this Saturday, get the ball, square your opponent, and blast his ass?”

The combination of the tone, the expression, and the words were perfect. I couldn’t help but laugh. His teammates were doubled over.

“And what does ‘blast his ass mean’ anyway?”

At this point, the player leaned back in his chair and indicated I had the next set of questions. If I didn’t have three more receivers on my list that I wanted to interview for a story I posted on technique, I would have asked this guy for an interview. He would have been a great source for “crazy things reporters say” material.

Considering I listened to a local reporter ask wide receiver Kevin Norwood if he “hoped to run a 4.7” and then tell Norwood he thought the time sounded pretty fast to him after Norwood said he “hoped not, 4.7 is a slow time,” I don’t have to imagine.

At the end of the night, I told Jene Bramel and Cecil Lammey about the player making fun of reporters. I could only describe him as bigger guy who looked like he could either be a small lineman or bigger linebacker. Since I only study offensive skill players, I don’t recognize all the defensive players at the game.

I saw him again tonight, February 9, 2014. He was telling the world that he is gay. His teammates at Missouri knew all year.

Humor is one of the great signs of intelligence. The funniest people I’ve known or have read about often had to contend with some serious shit in life.

Michael Sam, you’re one funny dude. Good luck out there.

Reads Listens Views 2/7/2014

February 7, 2014 0 Comments read Reads Listens Views

This Week’s RLV: Driving Blind, Mr. Clean, Talent On The Fringe, The Price Of Free, And Militant Frogs

Views – “Driving Blind” A Film By Brian James Griffo

[vimeo 49946741 w=500 h=281]

Brian James Griffo asked me to check out his trailer and tell everyone that proceeds from the movie (rent for $4.99/buy for $8.99) are going to research. I’ll be If you’ve done a road trip to see the country or a country that lasts more than 10 days then you know how life-changing these adventures can be. I did one 21 years ago across the U.S. in a van. It was one of the great experiences of my life.

I haven’t seen the full movie, but I just bought it based on what I’ve seen and what I gained from my road trip. Learn more here.

Listens – Brad Mehldau

[youtube=http://youtu.be/cnH27mxW0KM]

Welcome

If you’re new to the Rookie Scouting Portfolio blog, welcome. Every Friday, I post links to things I’m checking out when I’m online. You may not like everything listed here, but you’re bound to like something. It’s also my chance to thank you for reading my work and encourage you to follow the RSP blog and buy the Rookie Scouting Portfolio publication.

For those of you new to the Rookie Scouting Portfolio, the publication is available every April 1. You can learn more about the RSP here. If you want to see samples of the play-by-play notes I take to write the analysis, you can find them here. And to download past versions of the publication (2006-2012), go here.

This month through February 10, I’m offering an early bird discount to those who pre-order the RSP. For those of you calendar challenged like me, that’s this Monday . . .

In addition to the RSP and the post-draft publication that comes with it a week after the NFL Draft, 10 percent of each sale is donated to Darkness to Light. This organization is a non-profit devoted to preventing and addressing sexual abuse through community training in schools, religious groups, and a variety of civic groups across the U.S.

Here is what the RSP donated to D2L this year. According to D2L, the RSP’s 2013 donation amount was enough to train 250 adults in communities across the country.

In Case You Missed It/What’s Ahead at The RSP Blog

Sorry, but there aren't any "Steve Smith's" in this 2014 Draft Class. Photo by PDA Photo — Sorry, but there aren’t any “Steve Smith’s” in this 2014 Draft Class. Photo by PDA Photo

Talents On The Fringe: RB Shakir Bell – Every draft has a handful of players where the talent is there, but they don’t register on the draft media’s radar. Bell is one of them. Find out why.
Futures: WR Brandin Cooks vs. CB Ifo Ekpre-Olumu – Cooks is getting a lot of love, but I think this match up provides some sobering critiques of a good prospect who doesn’t deserve the Steve Smith comparisons at this time. And if you’re a fan of defenese, Ekpre-Olumu deserves your attention. This article is just as much about him as it is Cooks.
Six Plays That Make Me A Fan Of WR Odell Beckham’s Game – A lot of Tweets from people telling me Beckham is their No.2 WR in their class. Some comp him to Antonio Brown. I’m more inclined to say Greg Jennings-Isaac Bruce-Tim Brown. Stylistically, all four have enough similarities that it’s not a major debate.
Boiler Room: QB Johnny Manziel And Why I Think Of Ali – Manziel isn’t as haphazard a player and reckless as you think. His techniques are unique, but they are techniques. It was the same with boxing legend Muhammad Ali. Learn about the parallels between them.
Coming Soon: No-Huddle Series: Cal TE Richard Rodgers- Lots of promise, but can he fulfill it?
Coming Soon: WR Kelvin Benjamin Analysis – I haven’t decided whether this will be a Futures column or analysis entirely on this blog. Stay tuned.
Coming Soon: RB Kapri Bibbs and the difference between “college good” and “NFL good.”
Coming Soon RSPWP3 – There won’t be a draft this year, but the team building/management angle will be a compelling exercise for our participants.

Reads (Football)

Is Bridgewater a Bill O’Brien QB? – Nick Page at Draft Breakdown provides his take with accompanying visual evidence.
The Price of Free – Patrick Hruby at Sports On Earth provides his counter argument to the “But they’re getting a free education” stance for college football players.
Packers News Profile Of Seattle GM John Schneider – Good piece. Sigmund Bloom likes to tell me that the Seahawks and Patriots like the same players I like and it’s as if they read the RSP.
Which Teams Have The Tallest And Shortest Targets – Chase Stuart, the macho version of Carrie Bradshaw, provides another fine take on the NFL.
Alan Faneca Drops 110 lbs., Runs Marathon – I enjoy seeing these former linemen get into post-football athletic shape and move forward in life.

Reads (Non-Football)

India Declares Dolphins Non-Human Persons – To many Americans, India is the Ornette Coleman of nations. It’s too uncomfortable for many to understand with their rooted way of thinking. But once you let go a little bit and free your mind, there’s immense beauty, culture, love, and power that lies within. I like this step. Of course, I’m a Coleman fan, too. (Author’s Note: Points two fingers at eyes and then points fingers to Cecil Lammey: “Asterisk Lammey . . . asterisk”)
The Right Way To Hug A Lion – On the other hand . . .
Real Madrid’s Marcelo And Son Racially Abused By Atletico Madrid Fans – I understand that majority of soccer fans aren’t engaged in this heinous type of behavior. However, the minority who are acting this deplorably appear to be much larger in population than the nuts we get in stadiums like Cleveland, Oakland, Philadelphia, New York, and every other venue.
Why Young Sexual Assault Victims Tell Incoherent Stories – And why their attackers count on it.
New York Cops Break 10-Year-Old Kid’s Leg, Sexually Assault Mother, Lawsuit Claims – Kid says, “I told my mom being a detective would be cool . . . I want to be a better detective than the one who did this.”

Views – Sony World Photography Awards

Click the link above for the rest – Photo above by Nicolas Reusens.

Listens – “Mr. Clean”

[youtube=http://youtu.be/89kZOESeims]

A Freddie Hubbard tune performed by Roy Hargrove and company. I’ve been listening to this version on constant rotation in my car all week.

Talents on the Fringe: RB Shakir Bell

February 6, 2014 0 Comments read 2014 NFL Draft, Players, Running Back

Some talents on the fringe get their act together. Others, like Nate Davis, make bad on three golden opportunities. Photo my John Martinez Pavliga.

Every draft has a handful of players where the talent is there, but they don’t register on the draft media’s Richter Scale.

When it comes to the lens of the media, I’m drawn to players on the periphery. I enjoy uncovering the mystery behind players who perform well enough on the field to earn more attention, but haven’t done so.

Every year, I post about a few players who belong in this category of talented curiosities. Last year, there were three:

A high school hoodlum who saw his brother earn a football scholarship and decided to abandon his dead-end career to learn the craft of playing wide receiver at a community college on the opposite coast of his hometown. His dedication earned him a scholarship at an SEC school, but he opted to transfer before setting foot on campus because the head coach who recruited him bolted for another program. The school behaved like a spurned lover and delayed his request until he only had a limited amount of time to show scouts that he could play. Still, as a UDFA last summer his work was good enough that many experienced football writers and scouts said that Kenbrell Thompkins often looked like the best player on the field.
A four-star prospect from Memphis who this big-time, out-of-state SEC program pried away from the Tennessee region to pair with a future NFL star. This prospect never earned the production that the team expected from him, but his teammates and coaches still raved about him as a player, a teammate, and a worker. He began to do more than flash those skills on the field as a senior, but tore his ACL the November before the NFL Draft. The Texans gave this UDFA a try out, but cut the receiver in the spring. The Baltimore Ravens added him to its roster that summer and all Marlon Brown did as a rookie was catch 49 balls for 524 yards and score 7 touchdowns less than a year removed from an ACL tear.
A bowling ball of a college runner who tore through defenses with his power, balance, and vision at a program off the radar. His draft stock was gaining some traction before suffering a similar knee tendon injury as Ryan Williams and Cadillac Williams in the middle of his senior year. Yet, Benny Cunningham displaced two higher profile prospects for the backup role on the Rams depth chart and has a strong shot to maintain that job heading into the spring.

But for every Thompkins, Brown, Cunningham, Bobby Rainey, LaVon Brazill, or Alfred Morris, there are guys like Kenny Turner, Nate Davis, or Darren Evans, gifted players who disappear from the radar just as fast as they made the briefest of blips on the screen.

One of these players might be Indiana State running back Shakir Bell. The 5’8″, 185-pound runner would be my vote as one of the most talented pound-for-pound runners in this draft class. A third-team AP All-American in 2012, Bell is the type of runner that can make a one-year loss look like the best carry you’ve seen all week.

The reason you haven’t heard of him is that he played for the Indiana State and the reason he was a Sycamore is that, according to someone I know familiar with Bell, the runner has a reputation for flying against this classic line of advice:

Keep your head down, your ears open, and your mouth shut

According to this source, Darren Evans – a big back at Virginia Tech with NFL power – who also came from Bell’s high school program, had the same problem. Evans hung around the Colts practice squad that was in dire need of a running back to step up. Evans had the talent to do so, but didn’t make it happen.

In recent posts, I’ve been citing unnamed sources. I don’t do this lightly. At the same time, I acknowledge that despite the fact that I trust this man’s opinion, what he’s heard about Bell could be wrong. Hopefully teams will conduct interviews with due diligence.

Still this type of behavior assigned to Bell is not uncommon. I was also told that a learning disability is not the reason Nate Davis is bouncing around minor league football.

Davis had the belief that he didn’t have to apply himself at an intensity that matched the intensity of his talent. Davis was on the 49ers before the team drafted Colin Kaepernick; the Seahawks before the team picked Russell Wilson; and the Colts prior to the acquisition of Andrew Luck.

In my estimation, Davis is as physically talented and as naturally inclined to play the position as any of these three young stars. He had three golden opportunities that he botched because he didn’t want to embrace the mental and emotional discipline that the game demands from a player day in and day out. Todd Marinovich – for different reasons – had a similar issue. Success in pro football goes way beyond physical and conceptual talent for the position.

Still, I’m a lover of redemption stories and Bell is young enough to take the path of Dez Bryant, Josh Gordon, and several others have done. Here are two plays that give you an idea of Bell’s skill as a runner.

This is a nine-yard gain on 2nd and 4 from an I-formation set. The design of the play is to take the ball to left tackle behind the fullback, but the defensive tackle over the left guard gets penetration inside and is already two yards into the backfield as Bell takes the exchange.

[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UdLs9SMzjI4?rel=0&start=70&w=560&h=315]

Bell still presses to the outside, but then makes a hard cut across the face of the defender just inches away. Bell then gets down hill, runs behind the guard and bursts past the defensive tackle working from the backside.

Bell then runs through that wrap, gets up the left hash and runs through another attempt to wrap his leg for three yards. He finishes with a burst inside a small crease between his fullback and right guard for another four yards before he’s wrapped high-low by two defenders and dragged to the ground.

This is the type of run that encompasses a lot of skills that I value in runners: anticipation of his opponents; quick and smart reaction to penetration into the backfield; agility balanced with a down-hill mentality; and good, old-fashion, low pad level to finish with leverage and determination.

Here’s a one-yard loss from a shotgun set. The line slants left as Bell takes the ball towards the unbalanced strong side of the formation. The defensive tackle penetrates four yards into the backfield just after Bell completes the exchange.

[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UdLs9SMzjI4?rel=0&start=70&w=560&h=315]

Even so, the runner stops and cuts inside the tackle, making the defender miss. The defensive end working past the right tackle wraps Bell, but the little runner is quick and strong enough to run through the grasp of the lineman and then flash the balance and agility to spin through the outside linebackers hit to reach the right flat. He then dips through a third lineman’s attempt at the line of scrimmage Bell ran through that wrap but then was hit by the OLB. He spun outside that hit and worked to the right flat, dipping inside a third defensive lineman near the line of scrimmage to come impossibly close to earning yardage on a play doomed to fail.

There are several more plays I could share that highlight Bell’s skill and feel for the game. What only Bell knows is if he can develop the emotional maturity to match his talent. If he does, you may hear his name again. If not, you’ll another name that underscores the point that talent isn’t everything.

For analysis of skill players in this year’s draft class, download the 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio.The 2014 RSP will available April 1 and if you pre-order before February 10, you get a 10 percent discount. Better yet, if you’re a fantasy owner the 56-page Post-Draft Add-on comes with the 2012 – 2014 RSPs at no additional charge and available for download within a week after the NFL Draft. Best, yet, 10 percent of every sale is donated to Darkness to Light to combat sexual abuse. You can purchase past editions of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio for just $9.95 apiece.

Futures: Brandin Cooks vs. Ifo Ekpre-Olumu

February 5, 2014 0 Comments read Players, Wide Receiver

Oregon State's No.7 is the headliner, but the best football player on the field was arguably No.14. Photo by ACase — Oregon State’s No.7 is the headliner, but the best football player on the field was arguably No.14. Photo by ACase

The Oregon State receiver may be a headliner, but Cooks was upstaged in this game in resounding fashion by a fellow junior with a higher draft stock that has chosen to stay in school.

Futures: WR Brandin Cooks vs. Ifo Ekpre-Olumu

On most Saturdays where he treads his feet, Oregon State junior Brandin Cooks is the most dangerous athlete on any college football field. The 2013 Biletnikoff Award winner has earned comparisons to a slightly bigger, slightly slower Tavon Austin with flashes of playmaking that have some comparing Cooks to Steve Smith.

I recognize that Cooks is a marquee name who possesses the big-play potential and the athleticism to develop into a mainstay with an NFL offense. Yet that’s not as much of a foregone conclusion as many want to think.

Cooks may be a headliner, but there was a game this year where Cooks was upstaged in such resounding fashion that the receiver looked like a pedestrian player by comparison. The player who stole the spotlight from Cooks was Oregon cornerback Ifo Ekpre-Olomu.

Like Cooks, Ekpre-Olomu is a junior. The Oregon cornerback is also considered one of the top prospects at his position.

Unlike Cooks, the second team All-American corner is returning to school for his senior year to get his degree.

I like to watch players get tested in ways where the right answers are not the numbers in the box score, but the techniques, concepts, and athleticism that show up regardless of the data. One of the most compelling dramas on the field is a wide receiver-cornerback matchup.

Earlier this year, I watched Ohio State cornerback Bradley Roby and couldn’t take my eyes off Wisconsin Jared Abbrederis, who won their September matchup. It was a similar dynamic with Cooks and Ekpre-Olomu, except this time it was the cornerback’s performance that was far more compelling.

This matchup with Ekpre-Olomu is a good indicator of the challenges Cooks will need to overcome for his game to translate to the NFL. Unless Ekpre-Olomu is a special player with a future as one of the top shutdown corners in the NFL, the Oregon corner offers a challenge that will be the norm for a player like Cooks when he sets foot on Sunday grass.

Ekpre-Olomu exposed flaws with Cooks’ route skills, tested Cooks’ strength in space, and revealed the limits of Cooks’ speed. Cooks’ best moments came against the Oregon’s other corner Terrance Mitchell. The Ducks’ other junior corner is one of the top defenders in his conference, but not in the same league as Olomu. Even those plays Cooks had against Mitchell weren’t all that impressive.

In contrast, it often appeared that Ekpre-Olomu was baiting Cooks when matched in single coverage. Ekpre-Olomu had the confidence that he could match the receiver’s athleticism and stay a step ahead of Cooks.

Ekpre-Olomu was one of the most impressive defenders I’ve seen in college football this year. Today you’re going to see how he made Cooks look ordinary.

Read the rest at Football Outsiders

Six Plays That Make Me A Fan Of WR Odell Beckham’s Game

February 4, 2014 0 Comments read 2014 NFL Draft, Players, Wide Receiver

Odell Beckham's versatility isn't just about his special teams play. Photo by Crawford Orthodontics. — Odell Beckham’s versatility isn’t just about his special teams play. Photo by Crawford Orthodontics.

Some schools are known for producing good athletes whose games don’t translate to the NFL. LSU’s Beckham doesn’t fit that pattern.

Craig “Buster” Davis. Devery Henderson. Early Doucet. Brandon LaFell. Terrence Tolliver. These five receivers were good college players at LSU who failed to develop into productive starters that an NFL team feels it’s “set” at that spot in its lineup. Dwayne Bowe (and it was shaky for a bit) and Rueben Randle are the two exceptions in recent years.

Despite the fact that LSU has a history of recruiting great athletes whose physical skills tempt scouts and NFL personnel directors into selecting them only to earn a lower return on investment than they hoped, it’s never a good idea to write off a program or a group of players based on this recent trend. Every player is different – even if the trend seems to be strong.

It’s important to examine each player as an individual and not let past players from that program influence the decision-making process. Otherwise, evaluators can fall into the trap of following the back end of trends, which is a lot like following the back-end of a horse.

LSU’s starting receivers are two prospects that I like this year – especially Odell Beckham. The 6’0″, 187-pound junior may lack the prototypical height and weight of an NFL primary receiver, but he plays big and he’s versatile. Here are six plays that do a good job highlighting Beckham’s game at this stage of his career.

No.1 – Beckham Is A Football Player First, Receiver Second.

If I was a head coach, personnel director, general manager, or owner of a team, one of the first qualities I would demand of my players is a comfort level with physical play. Julius Thomas is a physical freak at eight end, but his reputation – fair or not – is that he doesn’t respond well to physical play. On the other hand, Hines Ward was a Timex.

I haven’t seen Beckham make or take any Ward-like hits, but a running theme throughout his game is the willingness to engage in the physical side of the game. Here’s the first play of the LSU-TCU game. Beckham is at the top of the formation between the left hash and left flat with the cornerback playing a yard off on this run play to the receiver’s side.

[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b_M52KgXSJ8&start=01&w=560&h=315]

The fact that LSU is comfortable running to Beckham’s side in a 21 personnel 1×1 receivers set is a testament to Beckham as a run blocker. Beckham delivers an excellent punch with good hand placement. He integrates his hand use and leg drive to shove his opponent off the line of scrimmage.

It’s not a perfect block – Beckham over-extends his form during the block and allows the cornerback to turn outside and get up field. The receiver manages to counter with a shove that prevents the defensive back from reaching the runner.

If a player is going to make an error in the run game, I’d rather him be too eager to get physical than not eager enough. Beckham fits the bill.

No.2 – Beckham’s Game Has Layers

A kick or punt return can tell an evaluator a lot about a player’s style as a ball carrier. This return against TCU with 13:26 in the half tells me that Beckham’s running style is confident, intelligent, agile, explosive, and physical.

[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b_M52KgXSJ8&start=155&w=560&h=315]

Beckham takes this kick seven yards deep in the end zone. The fact that there’s no hesitation about running this out is a positive. He’s confident in what he sees as well as his ability to execute.

I like that he sets up his first move by bending the run inside the right hash to the five to set up the wall of three blockers ahead. This is much like a running back pressing and cutting back. Beckham’s cut back is sharp enough to get outside the wall and force the unblocked defender coming up the sideline to take a bad angle.

Beckham then layers moves to get outside a defender coming over top at the 20. First, it’s a hop-step inside and followed with a break to the outside. These moves get Beckham to the 20 and then to the 25.

The receiver throws another combination of moves into the run, executing a stutter-step to set up a swat of the inside pursuit with this left arm that takes the defender to the ground. Like the block, Beckham is the player attacking and not being attacked. He finishes the play lowering his pads into a defender and continues forward another three yards.

Beckham’s ability to layer confidence, savvy, agility, and physicality into his game makes him the type of player I can use all over the field: the end-around, screens, special teams, and traditional timing routes.

No.3 – Patience and Explosion

This is a simple-looking post route that Beckham catches for a 42-yard gain against TCU on 1st and 10 with 0:16 in the first quarter as the outside twin man on a strong side twin I formation set. Both receivers are running posts on this play.

[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b_M52KgXSJ8&start=125&w=560&h=315]

What I like about his play is Beckham’s patience. Watch the replay and you’ll see that he runs a long stem and continues his trajectory towards the cornerback. There’s no real set-up with movement to try to get the defender to bite. Beckham knows this corner is patient and not biting because he’s playing six yards off with no safety help.

The receiver maintains his path that will eventually force the defender to give up the inside or collide with Beckham. Late in the stem, the defender blinks just enough for Beckham to break inside.

This straight path that Beckham takes a nice sign of good speed that he can run a true linear route and earn separation without a head fake, stutter or dip. If not for an under-thrown ball, Beckham had the separation to run under this pass for a touchdown.

Beckham has to wait on the ball, but he still manages to make the catch with his hands and maintain possession with the corner wrapped around his waist. Winning against tight coverage is also a recurring theme for Beckham – another sign that he’s comfortable with physical play.

No.4 – Attacking Early

The last play was a good example of Beckham displaying patience as a route runner. This play illustrates that Beckham can win early and do so with an integration of physicality and agility. This is a 1st and 10 with 8:39 in the half from a 21-personnel, 1×1 receiver I-formation set at the 45 of LSU. The TCU cornerback is a yard of the line of scrimmage. Beckham is a yard behind the line in the left flat between the hash and the numbers.

[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b_M52KgXSJ8&start=178&w=560&h=315]

When a receiver lines up 3-4 yards behind the line of scrimmage on a consistent basis, it’s a good indication that the offense is trying to prevent that player from getting pressed because they don’t have confidence in his skills to win early. Beckham is just a yard off the line and he uses that space to dictate the action.

He executes a strong stutter-step and pairs it with his outside arm to rip past the corner back, earning two yards of separation on the man within the first five yards of the release from the line of scrimmage. That’s a lot of space for a receiver to earn this early in a route. Austin Collie was fantastic at doing this at BYU and before his rash of injuries with the Colts.

I bet Beckham will display similar initial quickness and more top-end speed. On this play, the receiver is wide open but quarterback Zach Mettenberger once again under-throws the target.

The pass is a 49-yard throw from pitch to catch, but needed to be 50-52 yards in length for Beckham to run under it with his back to the defender. Instead, Beckham has to wait on the ball, the corner back recovers, and Beckham loses concentration, trying to turn up field before he has fully secured the target.

The ball bounces off Beckham’s hands, and the corner arrives just in time to pry the receiver’s arms away from any second-effort attempt. The end result is a negative, but I’ve seen enough plays where Beckham makes these types of catches – including more difficult ones – that it doesn’t outstrip the positive of this wide receiver’s skill to earn separation early in a route.

A play like this tells me that Beckham can help a team in a short timing game with heavy west coast principles or a vertical game that relies on a lot of play action. His versatility as a receiver is just as important as his versatility as a football player.

No.5 – Playing Big

Earlier this year, I profiled Jordy Nelson’s ability to frame separation with a defensive back. Beckham flashes similar technique on this 2nd-and-11 pass with 2:36 in the half from a 1×1 receiver, 21 personnel I-formation set as the single receiver on the left side. Once again he’s a yard behind the line of scrimmage with the cornerback playing three yards off with outside shade.

[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b_M52KgXSJ8&start=240&w=560&h=315]

At the top of his stem, Beckham takes a hard step into the body of the defender, frames separation with his hands, and then makes a quick break outside. I love how he comes back to the ball, attacking the target with a leaping catch at the sideline while the defender wraps him.

The hand strength to maintain possession on this play is impressive as is keeping both feet in bounds. This is an example why the dropped-post pattern is a “concentration drop.” Too many of these, and it’s a problematic thing for a receiver’s evaluation. However, in the context of what else I’ve seen – like this play – it’s not a concern.

No.6 – Varying The Storyline

In this game alone Beckham has attacked early, remained patient and kept it simple, and attacked late. This route is an example of Beckham using yet another press technique on a route further highlights his athleticism and concentration: the fade-stop.

[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b_M52KgXSJ8&start=490&w=560&h=315]

Beckham is the single receiver at the numbers of the left side of the field facing a cornerback playing four yards off with inside shade and a safety 10 yards deep and just inside the left hash. I like the swim move to break outside and get an early step on the cornerback, baiting the defender to consider a deeper route before breaking back to the ball.

Beckham once again makes the reception after sustaining some contact from the defender. Like Greg Jennings, Isaac Bruce, or Tim Brown, Beckham is an average-size receiver who possesses the athleticism, toughness, technique, and savvy to play bigger than his measurements.

It’s why he’s a favorite of mine in this draft class even if his alumni haven’t shined as brightly in the NFL as some anticipated.

For analysis of skill players in this year’s draft class, download the 2014 Rookie Scouting Portfolio.The 2014 RSP will available April 1 and if you pre-order before February 10, you get a 10 percent discount. Better yet, if you’re a fantasy owner the 56-page Post-Draft Add-on comes with the 2012 – 2014 RSPs at no additional charge and available for download within a week after the NFL Draft. Best, yet, 10 percent of every sale is donated to Darkness to Light to combat sexual abuse. You can purchase past editions of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio for just $9.95 apiece.