Posts tagged RSP

Senior Bowl Weigh-In

January 20, 2014 0 Comments read 2014 NFL Draft

Funky historic undertones aside, the Sr. Bowl Weigh-In provides necessary data.

By Matt Waldman with contributions from Jene Bramel

Save the occasional whisper, the shuffling of paper, and feedback from a microphone, there’s a period of 109 minutes at the Senior Bowl Weigh-In where you only hear five things. It begins with a man at stage right announcing a name.

Next comes the muffled thud of steps from an athlete in his early twenties. He’s barefoot and stripped to his underwear as he makes his way for measurement at center stage.

The attendant at center stage announces the athlete’s height. There’s a 10-12 second pause followed by three digital beeps from a scale at stage left and the announcement of said athlete’s weight.

It’s a process that cycles through 109 players with the slow-moving precision of an assembly line as a crowd of scouts and media seated in 7 rows of 67 chairs, 12 rows of risers, and 8-10 rows of overflow convert everything they see and hear into data for their notebooks, spreadsheets, and databases.

The weigh-in is the ultimate sign of the commoditization of an athlete. Watching this process set in the Mobile Convention Center “Ballroom,” a warehouse space with a cement floor and loading doors across the street from what used to be a dock in Mobile, Alabama. Although gussied up with black drapes, three large projection screens, and a podium, it doesn’t disguise the fact that men are being evaluated for purchase on the Martin Luther King holiday – a fact not lost on us.

The weigh-in has the mood of a slave auction posing as a beauty pageant with ex-jocks-turned-librarians as judges. It’s not a fun thing for any man with a sense of history to attend, but it’s hard to imagine football ever finding a way to fix this vibe and getting what needs to be seen.

And what needs to be seen is what these football players look like. It’s not just about height and weight, but build and expectations validated or dashed. Here are some observations Jene Bramel and I have from the 2014 Senior Bowl Weigh-In.

Pageant Winners

These players not only fit the size/weight/wingspan prototypes of their positions, but they were also in fine physical condition. If the weigh-in was a beauty pageant, they’d earn a sash. Just remember substance trumps looks every day of the week and twice on Sundays.

RB Charles Sims, West Virginia (5-11, 214): Sims’ carries his weight on a well-distributed frame and there was still room to add a little more muscle to his arms if necessary. Much like Demarco Murray and Darren McFadden two players he physically resembles, Sims looks the part of an elite athlete.

WR Jeff Janis, Saginaw Valley State (6-2, 212): Janis has well-defined build with broad shoulders and an even distribution of muscle. He looks the part of an NFL wide receiver.

QB Logan Thomas, Virginia Tech (6-5, 250): Tall, strong, and athletic without any flab that one often sees from some quarterbacks over 210 pounds. Some team will see him as a raw material.

RB Jerick McKinnon, Georgia Southern (5-9, 209): The former quarterback has a thick trunk with a build that looks a lot like Frank Gore’s. If only he had that kind of game. If only most running backs had that kind of game.

DE Kareem Martin, North Carolina (6-5, 272): It isn’t the height / weight measurements that stand out for Martin. It’s the 84 1/4 wingspan and 34 3/8 arm length. If Martin can use that to his advantage by keeping offensive tackles away from his body, he’ll do well in the pit battles and gain some momentum as Pro Day workouts approach.

OLB Jerry Attaochu, Georgia Tech (6-3, 252), DE Dee Ford, Auburn (6-2, 243) and DE Chris Smith, Arkansas (6-1, 266): The South defensive line doesn’t have the names it had in 2012, when Quinton Coples, Melvin Ingram and Courtney Bishop dominated their offensive line counterparts. Ford and Smith all showed impressive frames during the weigh-in. All three are on the shorter side of the ideal prototype but stood out with strong frames. Smith, despite measuring two inches smaller than his pre-weigh in roster listing, had a thick base and an above-average arm length (34 1/8) and wingspan (82 1/2).

OLB Telvin Smith, Florida State (6-3, 218), OLB Chris Kirksey, Iowa (6-2, 234), ILB Christian Jones, Florida State (6-3, 234), ILB Jordan Zumwalt, UCLA (6-4, 231) and ILB Lamin Barrow, LSU (6-1, 229): Size isn’t everything at the linebacker position in today’s NFL. 235 pound linebackers once considered too small for most schemes are now found throughout the league. But those players need elite technique and athleticism to be successful. None of the linebackers above looked to have a frame capable of adding much bulk. Smith, in particular, looked like a safety as he walked across the stage. Of course, the only real question scouts have to answer will be, “Can he play?” Smith and Kirksey are probably the best bets to overcome physical limitations.

CB Stanley Jean-Baptiste, Nebraska (6-2, 215): It’s dangerous to overreact to measurements at the defensive back positions. Fluidity and flexibility are much more important physical attributes for corners and safeties than how they look in shorts. A solid frame and defined build don’t say much for how well a defensive back can turn his hips, change direction and use his feet. Jean-Baptiste will be another test case here. Jean-Baptiste looked capable of lining up at strong safety or outside linebacker with a tall but stout frame. If his play matches his measurables this week, he may get teams talking about him as a second or third round pick.

Good Surprises

These players exceeded my expectations based on what I perceived of them in pads on the field. Some have probably added weight so it will be interesting to see how they perform with those changes.

RB James White, Wisconsin (5-9, 206): I had doubts White was 5-10 or 5-11 or remotely near the 200-lb. range. His true height is still in the wheelhouse of a quality NFL runner and his weight was a pleasant development. If White can demonstrate more physicality with his running style, he could find a place in the NFL. He’s a smart runner with good agility.

RB Antonio Andrews, Western Kentucky (5-10, 225): I didn’t think Andrews was this big and based solely on appearances, he carries the weight well. The definition isn’t there but I like that much of the weight is in his hips and legs. He’s solid, not flabby.

WR Cody Hoffman, BYU (6-3, 218): The height is nice, but I was happy to see he was as big as he looked in pads. Hoffman has a quick first step so I was glad to see he possesses the size to run through contact.

Maxxed Out

These players could play today with their builds, but I don’t see them adding more than 5 pounds and carrying it well.

TE Arthur Lynch, Georgia (6-4, 258): Lynch has that natural-looking muscle definition in nice-sized frame. He looks like a fluid athlete. I don’t think he’s capable of getting bigger, but he’s big enough to make a roster. Lynche’s question marks are speed and quickness. If he has these two commodities, he could contribute down the line.

WR Josh Huff, Oregon (5-10, 201) and Jordan Matthews, Vanderbilt (6-2, 209): I’m skeptical that these two players have the frames to support another 10-15 pounds of muscle and maintain their current athleticism. I don’t think either of them needed it, but Huff has better proportions in terms of his weight distribution than Matthews.

QB Derek Carr, Fresno State (6-2, 215) and QB Jimmy Garoppolo, Eastern Illinois (6-2, 219): Not sure what it was about their frames because their height is the same, but Garoppolo appears as if he could add a little more weight than Carr. I’d be surprised if either reach that 230-mark – it won’t be necessary either. Both are well-defined athletes and don’t look like some of the beer-league softball players in training that we sometimes see on Mobile’s stage.

Construction Projects

SS Craig Loston, LSU (6-0, 214): If you look at his torso, you’d think he was 190 pounds but if you only checked out his bottom half you’d swear he was 225.

WR Kevin Norwood, Alabama (6-2, 197): This receiver has nice height and a frame that I believe will support additional weight, especially his upper body where he can get stronger. With his height, this is a plus.

WR Jared Abbrederis, Wisconsin (6-0, 189): The Badgers’ wide receiver plays bigger than he looks. He has the frame to gain another 10 pounds of muscle, maybe 15. If he can maintain his quickness and explosion (leaping ability), he has the technique to contribute.

For analysis of skill players in this year’s draft class, download the 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio.The 2014 RSP will available April 1 and if you pre-order before February 10, you get a 10 percent discount. Better yet, if you’re a fantasy owner the 56-page Post-Draft Add-on comes with the 2012 – 2014 RSPs at no additional charge and available for download within a week after the NFL Draft. Best, yet, 10 percent of every sale is donated to Darkness to Light to combat sexual abuse. You can purchase past editions of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio for just $9.95 apiece.

Boiler Room: Arizona State RB Marion Grice

January 20, 2014 0 Comments read 2014 NFL Draft, Players, RSP Boiler Room Videos (Short Form), Running Back

One of my favorite players in this draft thus far is this 6-0, 204-lb. Sun Devils running back with the vision, balance, and grit to get the most from every play.

A series I started last spring at the RSP blog is The Boiler Room. One of the challenges involved with player analysis is to be succinct with delivering the goods. As the author of an annual tome, I’m often a spectacular failure in this respect.

Even so, I will study a prospect and see a play unfold that does a great job of encapsulating that player’s skills. When I witness these moments, I try to imagine if I would include this play as part of a cut-up of highlights for a draft show at a major network or if I was working for an NFL organization creating cut-ups for a personnel director. Unlike the No-Huddle Series, The Boiler Room is focused on prospects I expect to be drafted, and often before the fourth round.

One of these players is a running back I look forward to watching this week at the Senior Bowl, Arizona State’s Marion Grice. Not the most physically talented player in this class of backs, this 6’0″, 207-lb. runner is savvy, tough, and versatile. I enjoy his game enough that I’m already going to violate my one-highlight rule (shocking I know . . .) and show you two.

The first is a demonstration of Grice’s skills as a receiver on a fade route against a linebacker in tight coverage for a touchdown to tie USC in the second quarter. The Sun Devils’ runner flanks the quarterback on the right side of the shotgun at the 11 with 7:59 in the half. The two tight end alignment forces the outside linebackers to account for these receivers, matching Grice with the middle linebacker – a tough draw for the defense.

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-Pn5vRoTqIk&start=182&w=560&h=315]

The fact the quarterback even targets Grice on this play is a display of trust in the runner’s skills in the passing game. This is a timing route where Grice must execute his break with one fluid motion. Watch the replay and the timing of this break is late enough in the route so the linebacker has to react first.

This first reaction gives Grice the advantage of “having the last say” with the target – turning his back to the linebacker, extending his arms to the ball, and completing his turn through the linebacker’s coverage to win the pass in bounds. Grice makes it look easy. It’s this prowess versus man coverage in the red zone and intermediate routes that makes Shane Vereen a promising weapon in New England.

At the very least, I expect Grice to earn a roster spot because he’s also a capable return specialist. However, I’m more optimistic that Grice has potential as a long-term contributor as a third-down back based on the strength of his receiving skills and promise as a pass protector.

This week in Mobile and additional tape study should give me enough information to make a judgment on his overall NFL upside. Is Grice’s potential that of a role player or a more frequent contributor in a starting lineup?

Running backs are a dime a dozen and when a player like Grice lacks special athleticism, odds aren’t in his favor of developing into a long-term starter. However, I see flashes of strong balance, second effort running, and smart decision-making that give me some optimism.

This failure of an offensive play on 3rd and 14 with 2:14 in the first quarter is the type of moment few would consider for a highlight reel, but I believe it underscores the skills I mentioned above in addition to a heightened level of vision/awareness of his surroundings as a receiver/runner.

Grice flanks the quarterback’s right side in this 3×1 receiver, 10-personnel shotgun set at the 50 versus a USC defenese with six defenders in the box. This is a swing route to the right flat.

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-Pn5vRoTqIk&start=99&w=560&h=315]

The difficulty of this target is understated. Although the physical adjustment to make the catch isn’t a difficult one, the placement of the ball forces Grice to catch the ball over his shoulder and maintain his momentum towards a safety screaming into the flat. This is the type of attempt many receivers drop due to a lapse of concentration.

Not Grice, who is fully aware of the safety but makes the catch with good form and still has the agility and timing to make the defender miss and then layer a spin to the inside of the second defender coming from the inside. After layering two moves after the catch, he fights his way though three defenders before tackled at the line of scrimmage.

In the box score or the context of the game, this is not a meaningful play. However, when I’m evaluating talent it’s a great example – one of many I’ve seen – of a player who integrates his physical skills, on-field awareness, and effort.

As I mentioned in my Senior Bowl Preview, I want a better feel for Grice’s speed and acceleration. If he demonstrates enough athleticism – and maybe at 210-215 pounds – he could be an underrated prospect with starter upside.

Reads Listens Views 1/17/2014

January 17, 2014 0 Comments read Reads Listens Views

My grandfather and I used to take 7 am swims on Miami Beach then get some Cuban food. "Blue In Green" courtesy of one of the great jazz educators ever, Whit Sidener. — My grandfather and I used to take 7 am swims on Miami Beach then get some Cuban food. “Blue In Green,” courtesy of Whit Sidener, one of the great jazz educators ever.

This week’s RLV: Roger Goodell’s inbox, a killer author, a killer oud performance, and dinosaur pushups.

Welcome

If you’re new to the Rookie Scouting Portfolio blog, welcome. Every Friday, I post links to things I’m checking out when I’m online. You may not like everything listed here, but you’re bound to like something. It’s also my chance to thank you for reading my work and encourage you to follow the RSP blog and buy the Rookie Scouting Portfolio publication.

For those of you new to the Rookie Scouting Portfolio, the publication is available every April 1. You can learn more about the RSP here. If you want to see samples of the play-by-play notes I take to write the analysis, you can find them here. And to download past versions of the publication (2006-2012), go here.

This month through February 10, I’m offering an early bird discount to those who pre-order the RSP.

In addition to the RSP and the post-draft publication that comes with it a week after the NFL Draft, 10 percent of each sale is donated to Darkness to Light. This organization is a non-profit devoted to preventing and addressing sexual abuse through community training in schools, religious groups, and a variety of civic groups across the U.S.

Here is what the RSP donated to D2L this year. According to D2L, the RSP’s 2013 donation amount was enough to train 250 adults in communities across the country. I will have an announcement about the 2014 RSP next week. Stay tuned.

Listens

[youtube=http://youtu.be/SDoQIF1erLo]

Thanks, Cian . . .

Views – Excellent “Magic Tricks” H/T to Gordon Hu

[youtube=http://youtu.be/YI-MIhsx1xg]

Reads (Football)

Grantland’s Faux Inbox for Roger Goodell – Well done.
What If The NFL Logos Were Hipsters? – Then Joe Bryant would be a Chargers fan, Zach Law would loath the Titans, and Aaron Schatz would still be a Patriots fan.
Seahawks Fans Generated an Earthquake During Skittles’ TD – In other news, the world is round . . .
Want to write about fantasy football? Eric Dickens (Twitter @DLFootball) is looking for 1-2 aspiring dynasty league writers.

Listens

[youtube=http://youtu.be/GObThIZ_ZoQ]

You never forget the first tune you took a solo – mine came at the “goin’ to church, hand-clapping portion” . . .

Reads (Non-Football)

Photo-Driven Facts about Martin Luther King Jr – For instance, his first name wasn’t always Martin.
Prize-Winning Mystery Writer Is Also A Murderer – Taking “Write what you know,” to a new level.
The Medium Is Not The Message – A review of “Slow Reading In a Hurried Age”
One Woman’s Dying Wish: A Month Long Farewell Party – As a former hospice worker, this is how you do it.
The Flood Next Time – Grappling With Sea Level Rise Sooner, Not Later.
The Great Dying Redux: Shocking Parallels Between Ancient Mass Extinction and Climate Change – The scariest article I’ve ever read. Seriously.
Fresh Hopes On Climate Change – You may need this (and a lot more) after you read the above link.

Below the Radar: Alabama Utility Back Jalston Fowler

January 16, 2014 0 Comments read 2014 NFL Draft, Running Back

Alabama FB/HB Jalston Folwer reminds me of Atlanta Falcons’ underrated ‘tweener Jason Snelling, only Fowler is a better ball carrier.

The eye in the sky doesn’t lie. It’s a pithy football cliché. But the eyes in our heads can fool us.

It happens to everyone while watching a football game and play-by-play commentary can reinforce inaccurate depictions of what’s happening on the field. If you’re a casual viewer this is nitpicking criticism. If you’re focusing on a player it’s important to forget what you saw on the couch with your buds and ignore what you heard during the game.

A good example is what I heard from announcer Brent Musberger’s during Alabama’s 2012 opener against Michigan when he described Crimson Tide fullback/halfback (and H-back) ‘tweener Jalston Fowler “hammering away” at the Wolverine front. I thought I saw the same thing from the 250-lb. Fowler. However, when I studied his performance last month, what I saw on repeat views was a big man making defenders miss.

If what you see below didn’t fool you upon first viewing, good for you. You have truthful eyes today. Congratulations, you’re a football analysis god. Now go away.

Whether Fowler returns to Alabama this year or leaves for the NFL (and I believe he’s staying), he is the type of prospect who heightens my interest as a talent evaluator because he has been a supporting actor on a stage that has included leading men Trent Richardson, Eddie Lacy, and T.J. Yeldon. If Folwer makes an NFL roster and develops into a contributor along the lines of Snelling, Mike Tolbert, or ascends to a lead role, it wouldn’t be the first time a runner in a collegiate supporting role earns a greater opportunity as a ball carrier as a pro.

William Andrews was a fullback for Joe Cribbs. Terrell Davis was backing up Garrison Hearst. Priest Holmes took a backseat to Ricky Williams. And Willie Parker knew every grain and knot of the pine where he sat at UNC.

These examples and others are often personnel decisions that factor scheme fit in addition to talent. In the case of Fowler, a four-star prospect as a running back at the prep level, it was an embarrassment of riches in Tuscaloosa.

Here’s an introduction to those unfamiliar with Fowler as a ball carrier.

Footwork in the Hole

Fowler is the single back on 2nd and 10 with 5:37 in the first quarter from a 21 personnel weak side twin, strong side I-formation set at the 33 of Alabama. Michigan is in a 4-3 with the free safety in the box at linebacker depth over right defensive end. This is a zone run with the right guard collapsing the defensive tackle inside and the center working to the middle linebacker.

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zStxtcjBRmU&start=44&w=560&h=315]

Fowler works behind the right guard to reach the line of scrimmage, entering the hole with low pad level as the outside linebacker from the left side pursues inside. At 6’1″, Fowler is a tall runner but his pad level is excellent and I’m impressed with his ability to change direction running from this crouched position. He dips outside that linebacker’s reach two yards down field and turns up the left hash for another eight.

Then Fowler bends inside the cornerback coming from the left hash at the first down marker maintaining that strong pad level with the ball high and tight under his right arm. The Alabama runner finishes the play dropping his pads into the safety 13 yards down field gains another four yards for a total of 17.

This finish warrants Musberger’s characterization, but it’s Fowler’s maneuvering around these blocks untouched for three-quarters of this carry that is most noteworthy.

Feature Back Agility

This 2nd-and-10 gain of four with 2:11 in the first quarter isn’t a display of Lesean McCoy’s skill at cutting against the grain, but it reveals that Fowler has the agility to execute NFL-caliber, press-and-cuts down hill at the line of scrimmage. This is a 12 personnel weak side twin set versus a 4-3 with the Michigan strong safety outside the wing back on the unbalanced strong side. Alabama runs a zone blocking play to the strong side.

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zStxtcjBRmU&start=75&w=560&h=315]

Fowler presses the run towards the end and then cuts the play downhill. He cuts inside his left tackle and then bends the run under his left guard. I have the 49ers-Panthers Divisional Playoff game on as I’m writing this and I just watched Frank Gore execute the same press and cut – Fowler’s was no different.

Alabama’s big back bursts through the line of scrimmage for a gain of four before the defensive back hits Fowler in the legs. This is when 250 lbs. of north-south burst and pad level does it’s job: Fowler keeps his legs moving and earns another four on the play, carrying two more defenders on his back.

This 1st-and-10 wind back play from a 12-personnel weak side twin set at the 43 of Alabama is good display of quick, economical feet that transitions well to the NFL.

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zStxtcjBRmU&start=159&w=560&h=315]

The left guard and center do a good job with their double team to the middle linebacker. Combined with the tight end’s effort on the edge, there’s a huge lane to the left side of the line of scrimmage. However the outside linebacker manages to shoot this gap unblocked straight for Fowler.

The runner executes a nifty cut inside the attempt, reaches the line of scrimmage, and runs through the arms of the next defender. Fowler maintains his balance for another five yards down field and then out runs a wrap attempt eight yards past the line of scrimmage, splits the safety and cornerback with strong pad level and falls forward for a gain of 12. The replay does an even better job of showing the footwork.

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zStxtcjBRmU&start=167&w=560&h=315]

Mature Decision Maker

Fowler may have good feet, but he’s not a big back with a little back’s mindset like Lendale White or Marc Tyler. If a large crease doesn’t open, Fowler makes the most of what’s ahead. This 12 wind back play from a 12 personnel weak side twin set with 9:58 in the game isn’t a big gain, but it’s a mature decision.

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zStxtcjBRmU&start=153&w=560&h=315]

At the snap, the wing back works across the formation to the weak side end as Fowler takes the exchange. Fowler spots the right defensive end working across the face of the runner’s edge block to penetrate the middle of the line. Fowler dips to the left for three yards, gaining all three after contact at the line of scrimmage when there was no crease.

With Richardson and Lacy the marquee backs while Fowler was an underclassman and Yeldon and Derrick Henry as the present and future of the Alabama backfield, Fowler isn’t a name the public will know. But whether it’s this year or next, Fowler is a player I expect to make an NFL roster as a special teams contributor who will develop into a factor in a pro offense.

You can begin placing orders for the 2015 RSP in January.

Futures: Senior Bowl Preview

January 15, 2014 0 Comments read Matt Waldman

Is UNC defensive end Quinton Coples the next Jason Pierre-Paul? Jene Bramel says the potential is there but like everything earned in life, he has to put in the work to hone his gifts. — The Senior Bowl practices begin next week on the Martin Luther King holiday. Photo by Jene Bramel.

Another year, another Senior Bowl. What I am looking for, and what does the format of the Senior Bowl help me see?

Futures: Senior Bowl Preview

by Matt Waldman

There will be hundreds of Senior Bowl Previews available within the next seven days. Most of them will explain why the game is important to the NFL and the participating player. Only a few writers won’t provide 3-4 sentence summaries of the prospects.

I have provided this type of preview in one form or another since I began attending five years ago. I’m doing some of that once again this year, but I’m also sharing a more personal preview of the event. In addition to disclosing what I want to see from dozens of players, this preview will cover what else all-star games offer me as an evaluator of talent with my own publication devoted to offensive skill prospects.

Continual Football Education

At its core, studying tape is a solitary pursuit focused on the end product. Attending all-star game practices provides a glimpse into another dimension of the game, its coaches, and its players behind the scenes.

The opportunity to watch two NFL coaching staffs conduct a practice for a week provides insight into not only what’s important to them, but also what I can reasonably expect a player to reveal about his game during these sessions.

There are prospects that arrive in Mobile with a reputation for a certain skill set based on their junior and senior film, but the practices reveal something important about their game that the past two years of tape doesn’t show. I was fortunate enough to see Bengals receiver Marvin Jones showcase his skills as vertical threat during his sophomore year, but because his role at Cal changed after his sophomore year, many observers had their eyes opened for the first time when they witnessed Jones’ big-play ability at the Senior Bowl.

Practices vary in tone, tempo, and detail and it means the type of information one can gain varies from year to year. While I’ve expressed my utopian ideal for the Senior Bowl in the past, the practical approach is to be prepared to take what you can get.

When Buffalo’s staff ran a week of practice a few years ago, special teams had heightened priority and the teaching moments from individual drills were less frequent. There’s still a lot to see, but practices don’t serve as an informal technique clinic, which Bengals and Lions practices often were.

Former Detroit offensive coordinator Scott Linehan’s practice sessions for the offense at the Senior Bowl were especially good. He had an up-tempo style and packed the mornings with a variety of drills that tested and taught details that prospects needed to develop into more complete players.

Learning What’s Valuable (And What’s Not) From Practices

Everyone gets something different from watching practice. My book focuses on skill prospects, so I don’t spend much time . . . (read the rest at Football Outsiders)

“One Good Year” And Other Asinine Thoughts on QB Evaluation

January 13, 2014 0 Comments read 2014 NFL Draft, Players, Quarterback

This guy had "one good year" in college football. Photo by PDA.Photo — This guy had “one good year” in college football. Photo by PDA.Photo

One good year. It’s a cautionary refrain from the chorus of skeptics not sold on Central Florida junior Blake Bortles as a top-flight quarterback prospect (see my evaluation of Bortles vs. South Carolina). In the wee hours of the morning in a video-lit room evaluating quarterbacks, this three-word phrase will strike the fear in the hearts of most veteran scouts.

One good year could be Akili Smith, who like Bortles, was another 6’3″, 220-plus-pound college wonder who the Cincinnati Bengals took third overall in the 1999 NFL Draft. Smith had the arm and the legs to carry team, but according to Smith, who is now coaching quarterbacks at St. Augustine High School in San Diego, he spent more time curling glasses at bars than he did grinding tape in Cincinnati.

However, one good year is also Cam Newton, who took the NFL by storm as a rookie and along with a fine defense has pried open the Panthers’ window of contention. Many scouts were also singing the One good year dirge during the winter of 2011 for this rocket armed athlete who has grown each year as a quarterback and team leader despite concerns he didn’t possess the right kind of potential to handle the role on the field and in the locker room.

More than anything, one good year means NFL scouts don’t have enough evidence to cover their collective assets if a quarterback like Bortles fails. It’s one thing to invest a second, third, or fourth-round pick in players like Colin Kaepernick, Russell Wilson, Drew Brees, Matt Schaub, or Aaron Brooks and spin their development as a surprise or a stroke of scouting/coaching genius. It’s another to anoint first-round picks the future of the franchise and watch them set back a team’s development.

Personally, I think the phrase one good year is just a phrase. Giving those three words anywhere close to the weight of what’s seen in a game, in practice, or during a team interview is asinine.

Let’s go with the popular idea that a first-round quarterback should be more than a “capable starter.” I know what that means to me, but I have no idea what it means to everyone else. The same goes for “he should be a star.”

Then there’s the inevitable truth that stars rise and decline. If you don’t believe me, look in the sky.

There are many ways to define what that either term means. I’m defining a star as a quarterback who has done at least one of the following during his career:

Earned multiple trips to the Pro Bowl.
Led the league in meaningful passing categories (yards, touchdowns, completion percentage, or QB rating) for multiple seasons.
Led his team to multiple conference championship games.

Here is my criteria for capable starter status. A quarterback with this label should have done at least one of the following:

Led his team to the playoffs at least once.
Earned one trip to the Pro Bowl.
Earned top-5 production in meaningful passing categories (see above) for multiple seasons.

Using this criteria on the 51 first-round quarterbacks drafted since 1993, 22 of them are or were at least capable starters. That’s an underwhelming 45 percent success rate. Only 8 of these first-round picks can be considered stars – an appropriate stardom rate of 15 percent even in this day and age where everyone earns a trophy for participating.

Here’s a look at 17 years of first-round quarterbacks courtesy of DraftHistory.com. I’m not counting the 2013 class – even in today’s ever-impatient media-fan-ownership environment of the NFL, they get a pass.

Year	No.	Round	Pick	Name	Star	Capable	Comments
2012	1	1	1	Andrew Luck		x	Quintessential rising star. But by this conservative criteria, a “capable starter.”
	2	1	2	Robert Griffin III		x	Pro-Bowl rookie season, toilet bowl sophomore year. Still, a “capable starter.”
	3	1	8	Ryan Tannehill			Flashes of good work, but jury still out.
	4	1	22	Brandon Weeden			Two years in and the Browns are eyeing the draft for a QB once again.
2011s	1	3	0	Terrelle Pryor			Had moments this year, but regressed and lost the starting job.
2011	1	1	1	Cam Newton		x	On the cusp of stardom accoridng to my simplistic criteria.
	2	1	8	Jake Locker			Injuries and play mean the jury is out.
	3	1	10	Blaine Gabbert			The Jaguars are giving him one more year. I think they mean with the team and not as a starter unless he wows everyone.
	4	1	12	Christian Ponder			Like the coaching staff, out with the old and in with the new.
2010	1	1	1	Sam Bradford			The talent is there but he cannot be considered a capable starter yet.
	2	1	25	Tim Tebow			Italy is calling.
	2	1	5	Mark Sanchez			Sanchez is the fly in my criteria’s ointment, because it considers him a star. Fortunately, I’m not counting it. Common sense is a beautiful thing.
	3	1	17	Josh Freeman			Where will Freeman land?
2008	1	1	3	Matt Ryan		x	Not quite a star, but more than capable.
	2	1	18	Joe Flacco		x	Highly capable.
2007	1	1	1	JaMarcus Russell			Have we heard anything from Jeff Garcia lately?
	2	1	22	Brady Quinn			Storied program, big muscles, QB looks, and holds a clipboard with the best of them.
2006	1	1	3	Vince Young		x	At one time, capable but blew it. Still, it counts.
	2	1	10	Matt Leinart			The next Tom Brady . . .
	3	1	11	Jay Cutler		x	Capable starter.
2005	1	1	1	Alex Smith		x	Capable starter.
	2	1	24	Aaron Rodgers	x		Stud.
	3	1	25	Jason Campbell			Career backup.
2004	1	1	1	Eli Manning		x	Capable starter.
	2	1	4	Philip Rivers	x		Low end of stardom, but qualifies.
	3	1	11	Ben Roethlisberger	x		Stats don’t justify stardom, but the postseason does.
	4	1	22	J.P. Losman			Trent Edwards was better until Adrian Wilson got to him.
2003	1	1	1	Carson Palmer		x	Capable starter.
	2	1	7	Byron Leftwich		x	Low end of capable starter at one time.
	3	1	19	Kyle Boller			Big arm, big-name school, big disappointment.
	4	1	22	Rex Grossman			Low-end of capable starter w/his Super Bowl appearance.
2002	1	1	1	David Carr			Human pin cushion.
	2	1	3	Joey Harrington			Good college quarterback, good at the piano, and decent on FS1 Network.
	3	1	32	Patrick Ramsey			Reserve.
2001	1	1	1	Michael Vick		x	One-time capable starter with exciting gifts.
2000	1	1	18	Chad Pennington			Not healthy enough to earn capable starter status even if he was in spirit.
1999	1	1	1	Tim Couch			Capable SEC commentator for a regional cable network.
	2	1	2	Donovan McNabb	x		One-time star.
	3	1	3	Akili Smith			High school QB coach.
	4	1	11	Daunte Culpepper	x		One-time star.
	5	1	12	Cade McNown			Where are they now?
1998	1	1	1	Peyton Manning	x		Hall of Famer.
	2	1	2	Ryan Leaf			Still in the news on occasion.
1997	1	1	26	Jim Druckenmiller			Big, strong, and UDFA/NFL Europe’s Jeff Garcia much better.
1995	1	1	3	Steve McNair	x		Underrated star. Yes, I’m biased. I don’t care. Don’t argue . . .
	2	1	5	Kerry Collins		x	Capable starter at one point.
1994	1	1	3	Heath Shuler			I wonder what Norv Turner was thinking when he laid eyes on Shuler.
	2	1	6	Trent Dilfer		x	Beginning to remind me of F. Murray Abraham in “Finding Forrester.”
1993	1	1	1	Drew Bledsoe	x		Low-end star at one time.
	2	1	2	Rick Mirer			Goes to show you even Bill Walsh was fallible.

I inadvertently omitted Matt Stafford from this list (capable starter), but I did count him into my calculations. I don’t know about you, but a 45 percent success rate for a first-round quarterback developing into a capable starter tells me that having hard and fast rules about where and when you invest in a quarterback is foolish.

Another acceptable notion of “common sense” is that NFL teams shouldn’t draft a quarterback unless they believe that player sees star potential from that prospect. Using the same sample size and criteria, there are 35 quarterbacks since 1993 that were drafted with one of the top-15 overall picks. Only 6 of those 35 passers became stars – a whopping 17 percent success rate for meeting these organizations’ expectations.

Go easier on these top-15 picks and consider them successful as “capable starters” then that rate jumps to 54 percent. Still, the probability for turning a top-15 overall pick at quarterback has been marginally better than a coin flip. If the NFL hasn’t figured out how to project the talent with more accuracy than it has, then why should anyone listen to a former or current scout, coach, general manager, or owner when they explain their criteria for what makes a good first-round caliber quarterback?

This is not a complete indictment of NFL personnel men. Injuries and surrounding talent can alter the prospects of a young player that teams probably did a fair job of evaluating. However, the idea that the NFL and the draft community should be critiquing what constitutes a potential “bull’s-eye” with an anecdotal theory about “one good year” when it has difficulty hitting the target is putting the Super Bowl before the regular season.

This week, I’ll post some evaluation notes on Bortles. I promise you “one good year,” won’t be a part of my analysis.

Reads Listens Views 1/10/2014

January 9, 2014 0 Comments read Reads Listens Views

This Week’s RLV: A jive turkey worth eating, appreciating Klook, a spec at sea, Cyrille Aimee, and tree houses.

Listens

[youtube=http://youtu.be/Nt7UBKF1BQI]

Views – Unbelievable Tree Houses

For more, including an invisible tree house, check out Higher Learning