Posts tagged RSP

RSP Rorschach No.1: Fitzgerald Toussaint

Fitzgerald Toussaint and the Michigan Wolverines offense gets to be part of the first RSP Rorschach Series. Photo by Adam Glanzman.
Fitzgerald Toussaint and the Michigan Wolverines offense gets to be part of the first RSP Rorschach Series. Photo by Adam Glanzman.

Some plays are like Rorschach inkblots because there’s no definitive answer to why they unfold the way they do. This new series examines plays that have more than one viable explanation and may be too difficult to draw a single conclusion. The fun part is that you have a voice in it.

RSP Rorschach No.1: Fitzgerald Toussaint

[youtube=http://youtu.be/hpdg_kz9RGA]

This is a two-yard gain on 1st and 10 with 2:01 in the first quarter from a 21 personnel set. It’s an offset I-formation with the fullback to the strong side and one receiver split to the weak side. Notre Dame is in a 4-3. Before the snap, the safety at the left hash creeps to linebacker depth over the receiver. Also note that the outside linebacker in the left flat takes a couple of steps towards the line of scrimmage as his safety reaches this depth.

At the snap, the line slants right and the fullback works across the formation to the left edge of the line. The outside linebacker executes a run blitz and the fullback is confronted with two choices: block the outside linebacker or attack the middle linebacker. The fullback chooses the middle linebacker, allows the outside linebacker to continue his blitz unimpeded, and Toussaint takes a path directly into the middle linebacker and falls forward for two yards.

Why did this play unfold as it did? Here are some of my thoughts. While I have my opinion that I like the most, I’m not sharing it. I want to hear what you think is the most viable of these theories. Have your own that’s not listed? Post it in the comments.

Theory 1: The Fullback Makes A Bad Choice

The fullback’s original assignment is the middle linebacker. If the outside linebacker doesn’t blitz, the fullback seals the middle linebacker inside and Toussaint bounces the play to the outside shoulder of the fullback.  But with the outside linebacker’s run blitz, there’s no outside line unless the fullback changes his plan and attacks this run blitz. In theory, this change would have given Toussaint a chance to bounce the play outside to the left flat where there’s a ton of room, a block by his wide receiver on the cornerback, and only a middle linebacker chasing Toussaint from behind.

Theory 2: The Left Guard Fails To Identify the Appropriate Linebacker Assignment

Watch the play unfold and the left guard works through the line of scrimmage and attacks the linebacker inside the right hash, allowing the linebacker in the middle to run free and occupy the lane this play is designed for Toussaint to attack. Was the linebacker inside the hash the “Mike” or was it the linebacker that makes the tackle? Did the guard attack the wrong defender? If he took on the linebacker just left of the hash, the fullback takes on the blitz from the outside linebacker, and the Toussaint has a lane inside for a bigger gain.

Theory 3: The Quarterback Fails To Identify The OLB Blitz

When the safety creeps to linebacker depth, this should be a pre snap indication that there’s a potential blitz from that side. Considering the alignment of the outside linebacker and the depth of the safety, it’s conceivable that the quarterback should have read the blitz and made one of any number of changes:

  • Shift the tight end to the opposite tackle and run the play so the tight end and fullback can account for the two linebackers.
  • Change the direction of the direction of the run to the strong side away from the blitz.
  • Change the play to a pass.

In theory, all three of these options have a better outcome than what actually happens.

So what do you think?

[polldaddy poll=7639925]

For analysis of skill players in this year’s draft class, download the 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio.The 2014 RSP will available April 1 and if you pre-order before February 10, you get a 10 percent discount. Better yet, if you’re a fantasy owner the 56-page Post-Draft Add-on comes with the 2012 – 2014 RSPs at no additional charge and available for download within a week after the NFL Draft. Best, yet, 10 percent of every sale is donated to Darkness to Light to combat sexual abuse. You can purchase past editions of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio for just $9.95 apiece.

RSP Flashback: Overrated (McFadden/Jones) – Underrated (Forte)

The RSP is to draft analysis as Matt Forte is to NFL running backs - versatile, underrated, and appreciated by those in the know. Photo by John Martinez Pavliga.
The RSP is to draft analysis as Matt Forte is to NFL running backs – versatile, underrated, and appreciated by those in the know. Photo by John Martinez Pavliga.

The 2008 RB class was a defining moment for my development as a draft analyst.  The love for Darren McFadden was off the charts. Meanwhile there was a back toiling away in New Orleans who I thought was much better.

It was another lesson in sticking to what you see and explaining it all in detail. This time history was kind. Here were my pre-draft takes on Darren McFadden, Felix Jones, Mike Hart, Kevin Smith, and Matt Forte.

Overrated RB Prospects

Darren McFadden, Arkansas: McFadden might be the most difficult player I have evaluated for the RSP. His speed and acceleration are better than all but one back in this class. He also played productively during his career while coming off toe surgery and dealing with bruised ribs. When McFadden can run a play as designed, he can break it open for huge gains because of his elite speed. Although he doesn’t make strong lateral moves, he has the ability to bend a run in a direction while running at great speed. This is a rare ability, but it is still not as effective against a defense as a runner with sharp changes of direction.

The problem is this former QB repeatedly demonstrated noticeable deficiencies that I believe will prevent him from making a consistent impact as an NFL runner: falling backward when making direct contact against first and second level defenders because he runs with poor leverage; the tendency for his legs to go dead upon the initial wrap-up; lacking the ability to change direction with a hard plant and cut; impatience with his blockers; and poor ball protection techniques. Many people have compared McFadden to Eric Dickerson or Adrian Peterson, but the only thing McFadden currently shares with these two backs is his speed.

McFadden’s power is actually something worth calling into question. I am not skeptical of his strength and athleticism. He has plenty of both to be an elite NFL running back. The problem is his knowledge of how to use it. Any type of power you generate when it comes to delivering or deflecting a blow comes from the legs and hips. Not only do these body parts have to be strong, but they also need to be positioned well to transfer energy from your body to your target.

They explain this in more detail on shows that study the physics of martial arts—for example, National Geographic did a special where they hooked up UFC fighters like Randy Couture to sensors that measure force and flow of energy throughout the body. I know it seems a bit like a jump to apply this to a running back, but it’s not. Think about a runner heading through the line of scrimmage and they are come face to face with a DT, LB, or DB greeting them head-on. If the runner’s hips and knees are bent then his shoulders will have to be leaning forward so he can explode into the contact. When he makes contact, the energy transfers from his legs in the ground, up his hips, and to the point of contact with the defender.

A great runner has learned through a combination of repetition and intuitive assimilation of practice and game situations (natural talent) how to subtly change the angle of contact in close quarters and deliver enough of a blow to at least “shed” the tackle, if not just knock guy on his butt. This is why a back such as Eddie George who “ran too high” coming out of college actually was a good NFL player. He was taller than the average back, but he knew how to lower his shoulders and bend his knees and hips so more times than not he exploded into contact.

The same can be said with Eric Dickerson. Most people remember his “upright” running style, but if you watch highlights that don’t involve him running through creases untouched for 40- 60 yards and looking like Carl Lewis in pads, you’ll see a guy who could get low very quick and deliver a blow with his shoulders into contact. Adrian Peterson is capable of the same thing. I never once worried about his upright running style. The guy has monstrously great balance. When I first thought about comparisons to Peterson vs. McFadden I would watch how McFadden would get yanked out-of-bounds by the arm a hit to the hips, or a horse collar and see right away from the standpoint of balance Peterson is uniquely different–he stayed in bounds on plays like this all the time (which is what is one of quite a few things special about his skills). But this also has to do with hip and leg alignment and good use of his strength.

When I see McFadden in the hole he gets yanked backwards more than many backs (even compared to 6-0, 200-lb Felix Smith) in the hole or knocked down on is butt from head-on hits because his knee bend and hip bend is just not there. How can you tell? Look at his shoulders. A back like George or Dickerson often ran as if their shoulders were a big hand on a clock pointed to the number 2 or at worst between the number 1 and number 2. A back like McFadden is somewhere between the 12 and 1 and never quite at 1. It’s why when he gets hit in the hole he’ll fall backwards more than the average NFL-quality prospect. A back like Edgerrin James, who is unbelievably good at getting low, often gets closer to the number 3 position with his shoulder lean as he is still running forward. You can’t do this unless your hips and knees are bent.

It is not to say that McFadden never lowered his shoulders, but it was generally done in the open field with a significant running start against a defensive back. To his credit, he will break some long runs as a situational back because he showed the ability to run the designed offensive plays at Arkansas to perfection. Arkansas did a terrific job tailoring an offense around McFadden and Felix Jones by forcing defenses to overplay one and get burned by the other. SEC defenses have some of the best athletes in the country, especially on defense. But these fast athletes are used in highly aggressive defenses and they are susceptible to a glorified counter play with play action that will force them out of position when that play fake goes to an elite athlete in Jones.

The problems with McFadden show up when he had a reasonably normal freelance opportunity and he didn’t possess the vision or patience to allow these normal alternatives to develop. I’ve heard McFadden can catch, but after watching six games over a two-year period, I saw a runner who dropped easy passes on a consistent basis. Robert Meachem caught a lot of passes in workouts last year with his hands, but struggled as a rookie in-game situations. Once again, this is why game film is invaluable in telling how a player does when the pads come on, the fans are screaming, and the veterans are playing with a speed an intensity they’ve never seen before.

Like Reggie Bush, McFadden will learn that his speed isn’t as much of an advantage in the NFL as it is in college football. Speaking of Bush, I was very high on the USC back and still believe he has the skills to live up to the hype if he can stay healthy and stop pressing so hard to make the big play. In contrast, I think McFadden is more of a project that can develop into a franchise back if he corrects some serious deficiencies and works his butt off to do so.

Unfortunately, he hasn’t shown the maturity off the field and football has come rather easy to him. Having kids out-of-wedlock or some college bar fights doesn’t make him a hardened criminal, but I believe the odds are against him to take his work ethic to the level of a Ladainian Tomlinson or Peyton Manning. And McFadden needs to work this hard to make the jump or he will most likely disappoint. The one way I could see how his evaluation is off base is if McFadden’s injuries severely altered his running style and he was generally cruising off his incredible speed, but I’m skeptical this is the case. My best overall grade of McFadden indicates he clearly has the talent to contribute in the NFL, but needs a lot of work to be the primary offensive weapon.

Darren McFadden had a terrific season a few years ago, but hasn't stayed healthy. or performed consistently as an NFL back. Photo by June 10459.
Darren McFadden had a terrific season a few years ago, but hasn’t stayed healthy. or performed consistently as an NFL back. Photo by June 10459.

Felix Jones, Arkansas: I believe Jones will become a viable situational back in the NFL, but to rate him a top five back in this draft is a big leap of faith in a player who only carried the football 20 times once in his college career. Nearly two-thirds of Jones’ carries were as a receiver on end-arounds with McFadden as the quarterback. Linebackers and defensive ends won’t be as concerned about most NFL quarterbacks as college defenders were with McFadden’s blazing speed. The Wild Hog formation at Arkansas was mutually beneficial to both players. I think Jones has the skills to develop into a productive contributor based on a game where he ran primarily out of the I-formation as the RB, but there are several other backs that proved they could produce without a decoy that runs a 4.33 40-yard dash. Jones will contribute in the NFL as a kick return specialist and change of pace runner, but I’m not as convinced he’ll be the lock as a future starter as others. I have no qualms about drafting him because he has some Clinton Portis potential, but even Portis splitting time with Edgerrin James and Najeh Davenport showed much more on film than Jones.

Mike Hart, Michigan: The former Wolverine is a tough runner with good balance and movement, but he lacks the speed and acceleration to develop along the lines of a back of similar dimensions in this draft that I rated much higher—Ray Rice. Hart is also a fairly significant liability as a pass protector. He ran behind a very large offensive line that seemed to be outclassed versus top competition. Michigan has a recent history of turning out
disappointing skill position players. Although I believe Hart could develop into a solid depth chart player, but he’s too small to be this slow. I project Hart as a change of pace back who is capable of a contributing in relief of an injured starter, but he’ll be exposed for his deficiencies if considered for a starting role.

Underrated RB Prospects

I was wrong about Smith's tentative approach early in his career, but when he was healthy he flashed what I saw overall.  Photo by Carlos Osorio.
I was wrong about Smith’s tentative approach early in his career, but when he was healthy he flashed what I saw overall. Photo by Carlos Osorio.

Kevin Smith, University of Central Florida: How does a 2000-yard rusher qualify as underrated? When analysts and draftniks dismiss him as a baby-faced junior who is too thin, too easy to bring down, and indecisive at the point of attack. The only thing that they have right is the remark about his face—and that doesn’t win or lose football games. Smith is bigger than Darren McFadden and will likely add another 10 pounds of muscle as he matures because it’s his upper body that is on the thinner side. He already has a very muscular trunk and runs with good balance.

The skills that make Smith special are his vision, hard-cutting style, and hip flexibility, which are reminiscent of no back since Marcus Allen. Smith faced 9- and 10-men fronts and demonstrated a decisive style. I watched him have a very productive day against a stout Mississippi State defense that loaded up the box to stop him. Although he needs to do a better job of moving his legs when wrapped up, he has deceptive power and runs out of more hits and ankle tackles than advertised. The fact that he’s one of the best pure runners in this draft and he is still raw as a player makes Smith an underrated commodity.

In a few years Smith has a strong chance to be known as the best back in this class if he can capitalize on his vast talent. What will hold him back early is his need to improve his skills as a receiver. Nevertheless, Smith will excite teammates, fans, and fantasy owners with his running style. My only concern with Smith is his hard-cutting style. Some of the backs that share this aspect of his style suffered knee injuries that robbed them of their skill.

Matt Forte, Tulane: Forte is described as a big back (which is ironic when you consider some of the same people who say this about Forte describe Kevin Smith—a back with the same dimensions—as too thin), but what surprised observers at the combine was his speed and agility. What impressed me was his ability to combine excellent vision with change of direction skills ranging from the subtle to the dramatic. Forte played behind an offensive line routinely over-matched by its opposition and he demonstrated the ability to pick and slide away from penetrating defenders into the backfield. I saw a number of runs from Forte where many backs would have lost 5-7 yards when Forte had gains of 5-7 yards.

This is due to his quick first step, vision, and change of direction. It won’t take more than a year or two for Forte to get a shot as a starter. His greatest deficiency is his inconsistent approach to pass blocking. Even without refined pass protection skills, Forte should compete for time on the field as a rookie.

Matt Forte RSP Sample

For analysis of skill players in this year’s draft class, download the 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio.The 2014 RSP will available April 1 and if you pre-order before February 10, you get a 10 percent discount. Better yet, if you’re a fantasy owner the 56-page Post-Draft Add-on comes with the 2012 – 2014 RSPs at no additional charge and available for download within a week after the NFL Draft. Best, yet, 10 percent of every sale is donated to Darkness to Light to combat sexual abuse. You can purchase past editions of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio for just $9.95 apiece.

RSP Flashback: Alshon Jeffery Pre-Draft Analysis

Alshon Jeffery showed all the potential to be a top-five talent at his position in the 2012 draft class. Photo by Case Rhee.
Alshon Jeffery showed all the potential to be a top-five talent at his position in the 2012 draft class. Photo by Case Rhee.

How did I grade Alshon Jeffery in the 2012 NFL Draft? A potential cross between Michael Irvin and Cris Carter if Jeffery demonstrates he wants to work like a pro.

Alshon Jeffery, South Carolina (6-3, 216)
Cris Carter-Michael Irvin is also a good best-case scenario for a player of Jeffery’s talents. However, where Criner has a dash of Marques Colston and more Carter to his game than Irvin, Jeffery has the strength and physical style that leans heavier to the Irvin side of the equation.

Big, strong, agile, and powerful, Jeffery can make defenders miss in tight spaces and run through wraps. He has a good, tight spin move, that helps him continue moving forward in traffic. He also has the power and balance to bounce off hits delivered by much bigger defenders and he has little fear of working over the middle against physical coverage.

Although strong and agile, he doesn’t run with great pad level and will be prone to taking hits that he should be able to avoid. His effort isn’t as high energy as it needs to be. The WR believes his size and strength is elite and doesn’t consider that his speed and quickness is not. He doesn’t appear fast and his gait is not smooth at all. He’s a long strider.

Jeffery can high-point passes and over power defenders in tight coverage. He has enough build-up speed to threaten the intermediate range of the field. He’s especially good on fade and corner routes where he can use his height and strength to maintain separation and adjust to the football in the air.

However, he’s also good at being first with his hands to prevent defenders from getting their hands into his body on quick-hitting routes like slants and short in-cuts. When game officials are willing, Jeffery will bully a defensive back downfield to establish separation. Jeffery should be able to develop very good hand techniques to release from the line of scrimmage, but right now they are hit or miss. He needs to work on his rip move and swim move.

Frequently, the CB can ride him up field and eliminate quick throws. This is because he relies too much on his size/strength and he’ll have to learn more of a finesse game so he doesn’t incur penalties at the next level. He wins balls where it appears the defender has the better position with the ball in the air. His skill at tracking the ball is good and he has a basketball forward’s mentality to get the rebound. This is also where he reminds me of a Michael Irvin type of player – not really fast, but very physical with good timing.

Jeffery has to do a better job of securing the ball immediately after the catch. Otherwise, he’s susceptible to getting stripped when trying to run with the ball before he has tucked it safely away. Although I’m not around Jeffery, it seems from his work on the field that if he dedicated himself to becoming a top-conditioned athlete he could become fast enough to get deep because the work will help him add explosiveness as well as strength. If he adds an extra dimension of foot speed to his game, he can develop into a versatile route runner and become a highly productive NFL starter for a long time.

I think Jeffery has great potential to become a counted on, chain moving possession receiver with strong red zone skills, but only if he works at it and develops a high motor. At this point he doesn’t and that could mean he doesn’t endear himself to a team and risks never making the impact he’s capable. What he has shown at times in his career places him high enough on this list, If he demonstrated it consistently, he’d be be in my top-five, easily.

Jeffery highlights.

Alshon Jeffery’s 2012 RSP  Play-By-Play Reports and Grading Checklist: Alshon Jeffery Sample

For analysis of skill players in this year’s draft class, download the 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio.The 2014 RSP will available April 1 and if you pre-order before February 10, you get a 10 percent discount. Better yet, if you’re a fantasy owner the 56-page Post-Draft Add-on comes with the 2012 – 2014 RSPs at no additional charge and available for download within a week after the NFL Draft. Best, yet, 10 percent of every sale is donated to Darkness to Light to combat sexual abuse. You can purchase past editions of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio for just $9.95 apiece.

Futures: Jared Abbrederis vs. Bradley Roby

Was Bradley Roby's performance against Jared Abbrederis (above) a case of rust or a that of a polished receiver winning his routes? Photo by Matt Radickal.
Was Bradley Roby’s performance against Jared Abbrederis (above) a case of rust or a that of a polished receiver winning his routes? Photo by Matt Radickal.

In the case of Bradley Roby vs. Jared Abbrederis was the outcome based on rust or polish? I’ll take polish. 

 

Futures: Jared Abbrederis vs. Bradley Roby

by Matt Waldman

Depending whom you ask, Ohio State cornerback Bradley Roby is one of the top three to five cornerbacks in the 2014 NFL Draft. Draftniks love the 5-foot-11, 193-pound Roby’s speed. CBS projects Roby as a second-round pick who could go higher depending on how close the Buckeye junior’s 40-yard dash time is to the range of 4.35-4.4 seconds.

Although I don’t create rankings until I’ve studied all the skill players I’m going to watch, I wouldn’t be surprised if Wisconsin wide receiver Jared Abbrederis is among the top-15 receivers on my list. CBS projects Abbrederis to be drafted in the second or third-round. Considering that between 2006 and 2013 an average of 32 receivers were taken in the draft – 14 in the first three rounds – that projection has some basis of logic.

However, when Abbrederis, a former walk-on, got the better of Roby this year, I think the resulting analysis from CBS’ draftnik team of Roby had a minor, but important disconnect in logic. Before I go any further, let me say that I have a great deal of respect for Rob Rang and Dane Brugler. They cover a ton of players and do a fantastic job.

My disagreement with one of Rang’s views concerns Roby’s work against Abbrederis this year. Rang attributes the corner’s performance against the receiver to rust:

After sitting out the season opener due to a suspension, the Buckeyes junior showed some rust early in 2013 and struggled mightily against Wisconsin wide receiver Jared Abbrederis, but there is a lot to love about Roby’s game. That includes his speed and fighting attitude, but he needs to stay alert for all four quarters to convince NFL teams he’s worthy of a high first-round grade.

Roby missed one game. Rust shouldn’t be a problem. Rang and his team have Abbrederis ranked 11th on their list of receivers and believe he’s a second or third-round pick. They have Roby as a second-round pick.

If two players with second-round grades square off and one gets the better of the other do you presume that the other lost due to rust? I don’t. I’d only believe rust was a factor if I think the losing player is a much better prospect.

Even if Rang personally has Roby as a high first-round pick and Abbrederis as a third-round pick, is there really that much of a difference that Roby should have shut down the Wisconsin receiver? Only if the phrase “walk-on” still hangs in your subconscious when thinking about Abbrederis.

I have long maintained that there isn’t much of a difference between many first-round talents and undrafted free agents. The perception of players generates a far greater gap among them than reality – especially when the public reads thousands of articles that reinforce a faulty perception like Russell Wilson is too small to become an NFL starter, much less a good one.

While many will expect that Roby will only get better with his technique and this warrants him a higher grade –myself included – is this really a good expectation?

Read the rest at Football Outsiders

Revis vs. Megatron: The Winning Strategy of Turning an Island Into A Peninsula

I can’t wait for the day that Darrelle Revis’ knee is at full strength so he can reprise Revis Island against any receiver. His assignment on Calvin Johnson reveals that he’s not there yet. However, his performance on Sunday is a story of a great football player with new physical limitations and his coaching staff making adjustments to win the war against one of these most dangerous pitch-and-catch combos in the NFL.

The opening narrative is a first half where we see our hero and his team forced to concede that (at this moment in the NFL) no man is an island. No press man for Revis against Johnson here. If anything, this slant off play action is a good illustration of why we all drool over elite offensive athletes.  Get a cannon-armed quarterback who can throw the ball with laser precision to a gigantic receiver with track star speed and there are some routes just impossible for even the best cornerbacks in football to defend if the offense draws them up right.

RevisA1

Revis in off coverage is in position to read Matt Stafford and then accordingly. Based on the position of the safety on this play, it appears Tampa is anticipating a run or a short route and Detroit’s pistol look adds to that speculation. At the snap below, Revis eye-balls Stafford as Johnson drives off the line.

RevisA2

Ever the great technician, Johnson’s release has the look of a player running a deep streak rather than a slant. His shoulders are over his knees and he’s pumping his arms like a sprinter in the drive phase at the start of the race. Imagine being a rookie and watching Johnson coming at you like this. Even with an understanding of offensive tendencies, it would be difficult not to see Johnson driving off the line and wet your pants.

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Revis holds his water like the old pro he is. He’s more concerned with a potential exchange with Stafford and Reggie Bush. Once Stafford emerges from the exchange point with the ball, Revis knows it’s time to act.

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However, the play action fake affords Johnson enough time that Revis is already too late. The Buccaneers defender would have to anticipate this throw and already be driving to the break point to cut off Johnson. Even that early of a break presents a quandary for Revis, because Johnson and Stafford could read the corner’s early jump and turn the route up the sideline. While doubtful that they make this adjustment, the precision of this short route can force a lesser defender to take a wild chance and create this kind of big-play opportunity.

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Revis drives on the route with an initial angle that looks promising. But as physical as the Buccaneers corner has been throughout his career, he’s at a disadvantage here.

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The pass is on-time and hits Johnson in stride. The receiver does a find job of keeping his back Revis to shield the ball and force the corner to rebound off Megatron like a fly hitting a windshield.

RevisA7

Johnson doesn’t even break stride as Revis is eating turf.

RevisA8

Revis can only look on from the ground as Johnson gains 18 yards, turning a 1st and 20 into a 2nd and 2.

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Take heart Revis, the safety takes a five-yard ride on the back of the Lions’ receiver.

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In fact, he’s lucky there’s help over top or Johnson recovers his balance and turns this 18-yard gain into a something much longer.  It’s the type of play that Lions used to set up Revis later in the quarter for a longer target. There’s no play action here, but Johnson takes a jab step inside to simulate a slant with the hope Revis biting just enough that once Johnson breaks up the sideline Revis will have to turn and run, giving Johnson room to break back to the ball on a short route.

RevisB1

Here’s the initial dip inside from Johnson.

RevisB2

While I can’t see Revis’ initial reaction, it’s doubtful a corner playing off man coverage is giving seven yards of space to his receiver 12 yards down field. This is Revis recovering his bearings and breaking back to the receiver. Revis’ explosiveness and change of direction is good enough to start, but not yet good enough to hang with the likes of Johnson. Fortunately, the Buccaneers make an adjustment that turns the tide of this tightly contested game in the fourth quarter.

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The difference? The Buccaneers take Revis off Johnson and land-lock the new corner with a safety over top. The Lions decide to test this coverage with a skinny post to Johnson.

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Johnson takes an inside release, but the corner also slides inside and gives chase in a trail position knowing that he has the safety over top.

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When the corner jumps inside, he gives Johnson a little resistance to stall the break inside and help the safety gain position over top. It has a feel of Cover 2, but the corner doesn’t just pass Johnson off to the safety.

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The Bucs’ corner continues down field and then breaks inside to undercut Stafford’s throw.

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The corner tips the pass over the outstretched Johnson and forces a 3rd and 11. It foreshadows a game-sealing play with the same coverage with less than a minute left. Once again, this corner is tight at the line with a safety over top and he influences Johnson’s release to the inside.

StaffordC1

The corner bumps Johnson inside and rides the receiver up the seam for the first 10-15 yards before Johnson earns enough separation – which he know doesn’t have to be much – for Stafford to target his receiver.

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Let’s focus on Stafford for a moment here. If he hangs onto the football another half-second, Adrian Clayborn, who has been difficult to contain for much of his game, delivers a hit.

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The inimitable Lions quarterback delivers the ball while retreating from the pressure in his face and manages to throw a 38-yard strike with excellent placement to Johnson working back to the football.

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Normally, Johnson secures this ball and if he doesn’t score, the Lions have three shots to do so before tying the game and sending it into overtime. However, we are talking about the Detroit Lions. This team’s development is similar to that of a teenager – lots of promise and physical skill at or near its prime, but moments of awkwardness at the most inopportune times.

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Even Johnson isn’t immune as the hit from the safety pops the ball loose and into the corner’s arms like a gift from above.

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Johnson may have won the battle with Revis, but the Buccaneers won the war thanks to an individual and team understanding its limitations in the face of a superior opponent.

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The post-script to his story is Stafford. I have already profiled the Lions quarterback in this blog, but I need to underscore just how unfortunate this talented passer was in this game. It wasn’t just Calvin Johnson’s failure to secure this pass that killed the Lions’ chances to win this game.

Here’s a play-action throw that Stafford puts on the money despite throwing from an unbalanced position. His intended receiver is Kris Durham who is stacked behind his teammate to the right.

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Stafford gives a short sell of the play fake to Joique Bell and begins his drop. Note Adrian Clayborn on the right edge (No.94-long hair).

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Clayborn finishes his drop, scans the field, and nothing is open. Clayborn swats at his defender and works inside.

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Clayborn gets inside position to split two defenders on a path straight to Stafford, who is still holding onto the football three seconds after the snap.

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Stafford feels the pressure, slides right, and delivers the ball 33 yards to the right sideline on a comeback leaning like that ancient building in Rome.

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The placement isn’t perfect, but it’s only where Durham can make the catch – low and away. This is where I want to see quarterbacks err with their accuracy when they do.

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Durham, with a chance to help Detroit extend its lead with at least getting his team into field goal range, cannot maintain possession when he hits the ground. While it’s a difficult reception to make when working back to the passer and dropping to a knee to get under the ball, it’s the type of play NFL receivers make.

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But if you think that’s an unfortunate play, this completion on 3rd and 11 with 5:43 in the fourth quarter rivals the game-losing play by Calvin Johnson. Tampa sends five at Stafford with Durham as the single receiver at the bottom of the screen.

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Detroit gives Stafford a clean pocket as the quarterback locates the single coverage and delivers the deep out to Durham.

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Give Stafford the kind of time that Mike Glennon earned in this game and these plays should be unstoppable.

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This 20-yard deep out is cake for Stafford. It arrives over the receivers inside shoulder and well ahead of the defensive back. The velocity on the pass also ensures that Durham has time and space to get both feet in bounds. This throw and the last play I showed are the type of plays Stafford made at Georgia so often and helped him earn such a high draft day grade.

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Durham, who gains control of the ball early enough inside the boundary, decides to turn the play up field for more yardage. It’s a great call, but note how he carries the ball in the frame below.

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This type of ball security is a bad habit that I’ve seen from many young receivers and it’s a habit that Durham should have broken years ago. New York Giants receiver Jerrell Jernigan was a favorite prospect of many, but one of the things that really bothered me about Jernigan – as fine of a play maker he was at Troy – was that he carried the ball with both hands in front of his stomach like this. I describe it as a player running with the ball like he’s executing the option. Jernigan had far too many fumbles at Troy because of this style of ball security.

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Durham heads up field, but the trailing cornerback takes a desperate swipe at the receiver, finds the ball, and in what seems like the luck of the Lions in recent years, the ball does not bounce out of bounds, but careens towards the flat.

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The Buccaneers field this fumble and preserve its lead, setting up one last drive where Stafford hits Johnson on a beautiful pass only to watch his superstar receiver get victimized on a smash and grab by two rogue seafarers from Tampa.

For more analysis of offensive skill players like this post, download the 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio available April 1. Prepayment is available now. Better yet, if you’re a fantasy owner the 56-page Post-Draft Add-on comes with the 2013 RSP at no additional charge. Best, yet, 10 percent of every sale is donated to Darkness to Light to combat sexual abuse. You can purchase past editions of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio for just $9.95 apiece.

Boiler Room: Michigan WR Jeremy Gallon

Can Jeremy Gallon follow in the footsteps of Steve Smith? Similar dimensions, but big shoes . . . Photo by PDA Photo
Can Jeremy Gallon follow in the footsteps of Steve Smith? Similar dimensions, but big shoes . . . Photo by PDA Photo

Footballguys.com Bob Henry is one of the best fantasy writers I know and someone I’m thankful to have as a friend of mine. We became fast friends after sharing our love for the old AFC Central; Funk, Soul, and R&B music; and all the varieties of Asian cuisine.

Bob – a huge Michigan fan – is my unofficial area scout for the Big Ten. At points throughout the season, he sends me word of players he likes and we compare notes in January. One of his mentions this year is Wolverine receiver Jeremy Gallon – a player whose style he likened to Carolina Panthers  leader Steve Smith.

Listed at 5’8″, 183 lbs., Gallon matches Smith’s physical dimensions, but he has a stretch of road ahead of him as difficult as Russia’s Trans-Siberian Highway if he hopes to be mentioned in the same breath as the 13-year NFL veteran. Still, I think Gallon plays bigger than his size and has a flair for the dramatic on the field.

A series that I started last spring at the RSP blog is The Boiler RoomOne of the challenges involved with player analysis is to be succinct with delivering the goods. As the author of an annual tome, I’m often a spectacular failure in this respect.

Even so, I will study a prospect and see a play unfold that does a great job of encapsulating that player’s skills. When I witness these moments, I try to imagine if I would include this play as part of a cut-up of highlights for a draft show at a major network or if I was working for an NFL organization creating cut-ups for a personnel director. Unlike the No-Huddle Series, The Boiler Room is focused on prospects I expect to be drafted, and often before the fourth round.

It’s incredibly difficult to boil down any player with just one play. Yet, if I need a play to add to the highlight reel that will help a team make a decision where to slot Jeremy Gallon on its board, this 62-yard touchdown is my nomination. This is a 1st-and-10 with 6:00 in the first quarter from a 12 personnel weak side twin receiver set. Gallon is at the right hash stacked behind his teammate. Notre Dame has one safety deep on this play.

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Gallon runs up the right hash on a seam route and then sits in the middle of a wide open zone 15 yards past the line of scrimmage. He catches the ball close to his body and turns inside the hash with the nearest defender five yards behind him. The next closest defender to Gallon is 10 yards over top and outside the right hash.

Gallon gains 10 yards up the middle through a huge hole, jukes outside the defender at the left hash and then stumbles towards the safety over top just as the defender he juked outside wraps the receiver at the waist. Here’s where Gallon displays the kind of balance that hints at Steve Smith’s game. He spins inside the safety, shakes the defender wrapping him, and then makes the safety miss all at the same time. The Wolverines receiver then dips inside a second safety.

Within a snap of the fingers, Gallon has beaten three defenders and regains his balance as he runs towards the right hash. By the time he accelerates past a fourth defender, Gallon is in the clear for the final 20 yards to the end zone.

Gallon runs like a kick return specialist and this is a job he can compete for immediately in the NFL. The receiver displays a strong downhill mentality in the open field and doesn’t waste motion or slow his pace trying to make defenders miss like so many quick-twitch, agile receivers. His move to avoid three defenders was not a display of power; it was excellent balance to maintain his footing,  spin through contact to limit the impact, and terrific protection of the football under his left arm.

We know he has the athleticism to get deep in single coverage, but I like that Gallon is so quick to find the open zone in the middle of the field. He may never become Steve Smith, but if he can demonstrate the smarts to match his toughness and athleticism, he might become a dynamite NFL slot receiver in a league. At worst, I think he’s a more explosive player in the mold of Harry Douglas or Doug Baldwin.

For analysis of skill players in this year’s draft class, download the 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio available now. Better yet, if you’re a fantasy owner the 56-page Post-Draft Add-on comes with the 2013 RSP at no additional charge and available for download within a week after the NFL Draft. Best, yet, 10 percent of every sale is donated to Darkness to Light to combat sexual abuse. You can purchase past editions of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio for just $9.95 apiece.

Futures at Football Outsiders: FSU DB Lamarcus Joyner

Tyrann Mathieu might inspire an NFL team to consider Lamarcus Joyner in a similar role. Photo by wxcasterphx.
Tyrann Mathieu might inspire an NFL team to consider Lamarcus Joyner in a similar role. Photo by wxcasterphx.

If Tryann Mathieu’s play officially announces the arrival of a new breed of safety, Lamarcus Joyner’s use in the NFL may become the next step in the evolution of the position.

In 1998, Peter King penned a feature for Sports Illustrated where he crowned the position of NFL quarterback as “The Toughest Job In Sports”. King delivered a convincing assessment that served as the media’s coronation of the quarterback as sports royalty. Anyone who watched pro football between 1960 and 1999 will have little argument that King was right. But times have changed.

In 1999, the NFL instituted the Tuck Rule after the fateful play involvingTom Brady and Charles Woodson that decided the AFC Championship game. In 2004, the league increased enforcement of the illegal contact rule after Bill Belichick’s strategy to manhandle Colts wide receivers at the line of scrimmage limited Indianapolis’ offense to a lowly 14 points and ruined a greatly anticipated shootout between Brady and Peyton Manning in the 2003 conference championship.

And in 2008, pro football modified its “below the knee” rule after a Week 1 season ending hit on Brady subverted the most exciting offense in football. It has now made the defensive secondary the second-class citizens of NFL positions.

Compared to the quarterbacks King wrote about in 1998 – not to mention the decades of signal callers who undoubtedly inspired King to write about the position – today’s signal callers are A-list sports celebrities with silver spoons in their mouths. They are the precious investments of the NFL’s high-scoring, highly profitable brand that inspires year-round coverage and a thriving fantasy sports industry.

(Just a quick tangent for those who care more about the quality and fairness of the game over its branding: One way to give defenses more equal footing in today’s game would be to alter or repeal the illegal contact rule and enforce pass interference violations with a 15-yard penalty and automatic first down rather than making it a spot foul.)

Despite the NFL creating a class system on the playing field, quarterback remains the most technically complex position to master in sport – especially now that it has to be a PR-savvy role within the organization, adding to its difficulty. However, when confining the difficulty of the position to the field of play, the position of safety now gives quarterback a run for its money.

Safeties have to be as versatile athletes as move tight ends. They have to cover the deep and intermediate zones from sideline to sideline with excellent range.

Whether it’s an undersized, water bug of a slot receiver or a power forward posing as a tight end, the safety has to display the athleticism to handle both. And not only do these defenders still have to play the run like a fourth or fifth linebacker and blitz the quarterback, but they also have to do it all in a league where the rules governing the primary role of their position have been engineered against their productivity and the enforcement process has become arbitrary.

The NFL quarterback is the blue blood of the playing field. He’s a lot like the senator’s son who goes from intern to COO to commissioner of a sports empire. In contrast, the NFL safety is kid from the wrong side of the railroad tracks. On appearances alone, the idea of a 5’8” safety is not only an underdog within the hierarchy of the league, he’s beneath the underdog.

But there’s some Darwinism at play in the wilds of that 6400-square yards of turf and no matter how much football convention tries to squash individuality, it never succeeds in doing so. If anything, it creates new opportunities for individuality to make a game changing impact. Upon deeper examination, it’s possible that the smaller, quicker, scat-back-sized safety might be the next new answer to counter the dominance of the forward pass.

Reads Listens Views 11/23/2013

The RSP is to draft analysis as Matt Forte is to NFL running backs - versatile, underrated, and appreciated by those in the know. Photo by John Martinez Pavliga.
The RSP is to draft analysis as Matt Forte is to NFL running backs – versatile, underrated, and appreciated by those in the know. Photo by John Martinez Pavliga.

Thanks: 

New to the Rookie Scouting Portfolio blog? Once a week I post links to all kinds of content I’m checking out. You may not like everything here, but if you like at least one link then I’ve done my job. If you don’t like anything I post here ever, then I can’t help you. But seriously, thank you for following the RSP blog. It’s my way of giving you a preview of the type of detail and insight that you can expect from my annual publication devoted to analysis of skill position prospects.

Available every April 1, the RSP is part online draft magazine filled with rankings, draft trends analysis, position-specific skill breakdowns for every player , overrated/underrated, and multi-dimensional player comparisons that actually make sense. And if that’s not enough for you, I show my work. I include every grading checklist and play-by-play note I take on the prospects I study for this publication and provide a glossary that defines my grading system and the criteria that I used to rate players.

All though the 120-200 pages of the draft magazine is sufficient for most, the reports make the RSP well over 1000 pages of information. It makes the RSP an excellent long-term resource to use when those third and fourth-year players “come out of nowhere” and begin to make their mark with an NFL roster or if you simply want to learn more about the game.

Since the RSP has a comprehensive set of embedded bookmarks, the publication is easy to navigate and has the feel of a magazine, but the insight of a reference book you’ll refer to long after the draft.

Plus, I provide a post-draft update the week after the draft that includes rankings weighted more to current team fit, early fantasy average draft values, fantasy value analysis based on draft data and my rankings, and a comprehensive fantasy cheat sheet. Most of my readers say this is worth the price of the RSP alone.

Download this year’s Rookie Scouting Portfolio for $19.95 or past publications (2006-2012) for $9.95. I donate 10 percent of every sale to Darkness to Light, a non-profit that provides community training to prevent and address sexual abuse so our society can do a better job of handling – and hopefully preventing – what happened at institutions like Penn State, because it’s not just a problem isolated in Happy Valley.

If you enjoy this blog , want to learn more about the game, earn an advantage in your fantasy leagues, and want to give a little back to society while supporting the efforts of someone who is doing the work so you don’t have to, download the RSP. I’m confident you’ll discover that the value exceeds the hype, which I know is not common these days.

Listens – The Dark Sorcerer of Piano With a Great Band

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Herbie Hancock, Al Foster, Buster Williams, and Greg Osby playing Wayne Shorter’s excellent composition Footprints. Hancock is the master of creating musical moods that are soundtracks for the imagination. As far as drummers go, I’m a huge fan of Al Foster because he’s responsiveness and interaction with his fellow musicians is fantastic. Just a suggestion for those of you seeking a different way to spend quality time with someone you love:

Clear a space in the middle of a room in front of a TV and pile it with cushions and pillows or even a mattress dragged into the room loaded with pillows and blankets. Turn the TV onto one of those channels that films exotic locales or hook up your computer to your wide-screen and run a slide show filled with hundreds of photos of sights and nature (see below) from around the world and put on some music without lyrics. It could be Herbie, classical music, house music, whatever will give you and your special someone a quiet visual-aural adventure of the imagination.

Here’s some more Herbie Hancock with Michael Brecker. If my wife and I decide to have more children and we have a son, “Brecker” is on the short list of names.

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And one more that I’d find just right with the vibe below . . .

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Views – National Geographic Photo Contest 2013

Non-Football Reads

Football Reads

Listens: The Mix – Northern Soul Radio

 Coming Soon at the RSP

  • Later today: A Futures on DB Lamarcus Joyner  (what a fun player to watch).
  • Borrowing an insight from Lance Zierlein about J.J. Watt and illustrating it with photos.
  • Analysis of Michiagn WR Jeremy Gallon.
  • Perhaps a look at FSU RB Devonta Freeman.

Bobby Rainey’s Career Day

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I’d like to believe that last weekend will be the beginning of a long and fruitful career as an NFL starter for Bobby Rainey, but I’m not naive. The one position in the NFL where there is no shortage of talent is running back. There may be teams that lack a good eye for matching running back talent with its roster, but there are backs training at home with the ability to produce as an NFL starter if called upon.

Still, Rainey’s production is worth a look within the context of a season where Indianapolis traded its first round pick for Trent Richardson to pair him with a run scheme that is supposed to be his best match. Richardson has been far less productive than Donald Brown, a back playing well enough that it would be understandable if Colts fans are angry with Brown for taking so long (and costing so much in additional running back talent added to the roster) to finally begin looking like a quality NFL runner.

As fan, I’d remain patient with Richardson. However, the fact that he is not performing to expectation and needs more time to gel with his offensive line is a red flag similar to the one his teammate Brown first earned years prior. At the same time, the Cleveland Browns cut Rainey after giving him 14 carries in 6 weeks.

Two weeks later in Tampa Bay, and Rainey looks like the underrated back that I thought he was when he was prospect at Western Kentucky. Why is Rainey a fit with the Buccaneers but the Ravens and Browns gave up on him?

Especially the Ravens. Rainey’s game is stylistically comparable to Ray Rice – right down to the stamina that comes from being a 212-pound “short, but not small” back.

My contention? There’s a disconnect between the scouts and front office that bring in a player as a potential contributor and the coaching staff who decides whether to use him – if even give him a true shot. The counter argument is that Rainey would have never earned a shot in Tampa Bay if Doug Martin, Michael Smith (preseason), and Mike James hadn’t gotten hurt. The Buccaneers were desperate for a complement to Brian Leonard, saw Rainey flash against Miami, and rode the hot hand once he continued to maximize his chances a week later against Atlanta.

This is true, but ask yourself this question: Do you think Chris Ogbonnaya could have matched Rainey’s output if he was in the Buccaneers’ backfield last Sunday? Ogbonnaya runs hard, but I have never thought the Browns’ current lead back is the same quality player as Rainey.

The Browns disagreed with this notion. Yet, Cleveland and its offensive line – considered more talented from tackle to tackle than the Buccaneers – hasn’t helped Ogbonnaya gain as many yards on the ground in 10 games as Rainey has gained in two with the Buccaneers.

And what about Willis McGahee? The veteran has 275 yards on 106 carries this year. Rainey has 208 yards on 38 carries in six quarters of work.

You don’t think Rainey – an undrafted free agent cut by the Ravens – was too expensive for the Browns, do you? Perhaps McGahee and Ogbonnaya were too expensive to let go. Or more likely, the Browns didn’t know what it had in Rainey, judged him on his height and draft status, and didn’t give him a chance. By the way, Baltimore shouldn’t get away scot-free from criticism; Bernard Pierce has 279 yards on 103 carries and 2 touchdowns for Baltimore this year.

Of course, Rainey’s next six quarters could be bad enough that he’ll be nothing but a blip in the memories of football fans. While he has the NFL’s attention, let’s look at what Rainey has done thus far that is consistent with his performance as a college prospect.

Patience

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Rainey is adept at both gap and zone plays because of his college offense because he runs with his eyes. Rainey is a patient player whose feet work in conjunction with his eyes. The overall blocking by the Buccaneers line on this play is spotty, but Rainey’s skills make this play worthwhile.

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The Buccaneers pull its tackle behind the guard as the rest of the line slants to the left with the hope of two linemen reaching the linebackers to give Rainey a hole. But as Rainey approaches the exchange point with Mike Glennon, the middle of the line is a logjam. Note the Buccaneers’ No.75 who is pushing the Falcons’ tackle who has his helmet positioned at an angle where he’s poised to penetrate the backfield just as Rainey takes the football.

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If Rainey continues downhill along the trajectory of the exchange point, he collides with the penetration inside No.75. But the undrafted free agent runner pulls off a stutter move that former NFL offensive lineman Ben Muth suggests that top-10 draft pick Trent Richardson should be using more often.

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Rainey doesn’t stop and cut, but he changes his stride just enough to make a slight brake in his pace, allow his teammate to push the penetration to the left, and then continue his course to the hole.

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This is a fine display of footwork and agility integrated with what he sees ahead. Even so, there’s another obstacle  ahead. Check out the defender coming inside the tight end (No.81) at the line of scrimmage and it’s clear that Tampa has done a good job reaching the second level of the Atlanta defense, but not a good job of opening creases at the first. Fortunately, a good runner makes his offensive line look better than it is and Rainey is used to performing well against major college defenses that outplayed his offensive line.

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Rainey makes the decision to work tight to his guard and bend the run outside the oncoming penetration inside the tight end. This is a subtle move but it’s the difference between a two-yard gain and a much more productive run.

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When Rainey reaches the line of scrimmage, he delivers a stiff arm to the defender working inside the tight end. Remember, Rainey is three pounds lighter than Frank Gore’s listed weight. He’s short, not small; and this stiff arm is something you’ll begin to realize is a regular part of his arsenal.

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Because Rainey has the patience, footwork, agility, and power to clear two obstacles before he crosses the line of scrimmage, he’s now able to benefit from the quality blocking at the second level. By design this is backwards for the ideal ground game. While there have been questions about Doug Martin’s struggles and Mike James’ success, this is the type of play where a one-cut, downhill runner like James wouldn’t be as successful.

Rainey comes from a similar style of running as Martin. Although they both might err on the side of trying too hard to break a big run when the line isn’t playing well, they possess the big-play ability to create space that isn’t there.

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Rainey accelerates to the edge and turns the corner on the linebacker for the first down and earning another four yards after crossing the marker.

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Here’s a more straight-forward run where the line does its job upfront and Rainey’s job is to win some match-ups in the second and third level of the defense. This is a 1×1 receiver, 21 personnel, I-formation set on 2nd-and-five where the Buccaneers run a zone play with the line slanting left to set up a cutback to right end.

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This time around, the Tampa line does a good job sealing the Falcons’ line to the left side.

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As with any zone play, Rainey has multiple options. One of them is to follow his lead blocker inside left tackle and as you’ll see in the next two frames, it’s something Rainey is considering as he reaches the exchange point with Glennon.

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Once Rainey receives the ball from his quarterback, it becomes apparent to the runner that there’s not much of a gap inside left tackle. However, he does see the Atlanta defense flowing to the left and this makes the cutback a viable option.

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Rainey covers another two yards along the same trajectory as his fullback before planting his outside leg and cutting back. As you can see below, there’s a nice seal of the right side by No.69 and No.84.

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This is now about burst, quickness, and the line continuing to hold up its end of the bargain.

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Rainey works towards the edge, and just like the first play, bends the run tight enough around his seal (No.69) that he has room to address the cornerback working under the wide receiver in the right flat. There are several runs in this game where Rainey does an excellent job bending around lead blocks to set up creases to avoid a defender ahead of him. In fact, Rainey’s first carry in the game is a good example.

This was a run to right end behind a pulling guard and his fullback. As he reaches the flat, Rainey picks up a block by the fullback and makes a concerted effort to bend tight to that block to clear the block from No.76 ahead.

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As he bends this run ahead of the fullback’s block, the blocked defender manages to wrap Rainey, who runs through the tackle and gains another nine yards up the sideline for the first down.

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Back to this I-formation run with the cutback to right end. Rainey bends his run tight to the edge of his linemen to eliminate as much of the angle of the oncoming defensive back as he can.

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This gives Rainey a nice crease up the right hash for the first down and momentum to finish the play strong.

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Rainey lowers the pads to split the linebacker and safety. It’s this pad level combined with his low center of gravity that repels the safety’s contact.

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The safety slides off Rainey and it’s the linebacker who is forced to wrap and drop the running back two yards later.

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One of my favorite runs in this game incorporates his tight-cornering concept in traffic. It happens with 5:06 in the third quarter on a 2nd-and-10 from a 22 personnel I-formation run versus a Falcons defense playing the run with nine defenders in the box.

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This is a gap-style play where the left guard pulls across center to the right side but as you’ll see, Atlanta’s defense anticipates the trap and forces Rainey to improvise.

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At first, it’s all systems go. The guard pulls across, the fullback approaches the line, and there’s a slight push from the right side of the Buccaneers’ line.

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Just after Rainey takes the exchange, you’ll begin to see the left side of the Falcon’s line penetrate across the face of its blockers  and create a logjam at the point where the trap block occurs.

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Rainey sees the standstill behind the trap block, reads No.91 working across the face of the backside guard, and the runner takes a more creative alternative: He stops, plants, and cuts to the backside tackle. This is a great display of agility, and peripheral vision.

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Rainey executes the cut back and from the vantage point of this frame, it seems unlikely that a runner would exploit a hole between the tight end and the left tackle up the left hash. But this is what happens as you’ll see below.

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Rainey executes this move with another tight bend around the first linemen and this gives him a shot at getting inside the tight end, who manages to bring the linebacker to one knee.

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Rainey makes an even harder lateral cut than the first to exploit this smaller crease and burst up the hash.

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Five yards later, Rainey clears the tight end’s block and has his pads down hill and in position to finish this run strong, falling forward and gaining eight yards on a play that could have easily been a loss of two.

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Leverage and Balance

It’s not just moves at the line of scrimmage that make Rainey a nice surprise for the Buccaneers. This 2nd-and-10 run should have been foiled in the backfield, but Rainey displays a comfort with physical play that is Ray Rice-like.

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The line slants right to begin this run and the defensive tackle over left tackle does a good job crossing the face of the lineman and reaching the backfield.

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By the time Rainey takes the exchange, the tackle is making a beeline for the back and it appears there will be an imminent collision 3-4 yards in the backfield.

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Rainey is too quick for the tackle, dipping outside the penetration towards his teammates who are sealing the left side of the line to the inside.

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As Rainey reaches the line of scrimmage, the defensive end works through the tight end and now has an head-on angle with the runner.

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Rainey once again displays the stiff arm and pad level to work past a man much bigger.

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The key to a good stiff arm is being the first to make contact and delivering the contact with good leverage – and an angle where there’s a chance to work past it.

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Rainey gets the corner, keeps his pads downhill, and gains nearly five yards on a run where two defensive linemen had him dead to rights for a loss.

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Notice that I haven’t shown the long touchdown run? It was a well-blocked play at every level with nice decision-making at the second and third level from Rainey. It was fun to watch, but not nearly as impressive an individual effort as some of these shorter runs.

While I believe Rainey can earn a share of a committee with a team over the next 2-3 seasons and become a lead back if an organization gives him a true opportunity to compete for the job, I’m more skeptical of how the NFL works. Rainey is already 26  and it’s only his second season in the NFL. In contrast, Marshawn Lynch is just a year older than Rainey and is already an eight-year veteran. This is another round peg to Rainey’s resume that doesn’t fit the league’s square holes.

Even so, Rainey should be proud of this game. Because even if he never earns an extended opportunity to compete as a starting running back, no NFL fan, player, coach, scout, or front office employee can ever say that Rainey is not an NFL-caliber running back without appearing ignorant. That’s more than most prospects at this position can claim.

For more analysis of offensive skill players like this post, download the 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio available April 1. Prepayment is available now. Better yet, if you’re a fantasy owner the 56-page Post-Draft Add-on comes with the 2013 RSP at no additional charge. Best, yet, 10 percent of every sale is donated to Darkness to Light to combat sexual abuse. You can purchase past editions of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio for just $9.95 apiece.

NFL Closeup: Le’Veon Bell’s Progress Report

Progress Report: Don't be a hero. See below.
Progress Report: Don’t be a hero. See below.

Just before the 2013 NFL Draft, I wrote a post about Le’Veon BellThe gist of the analysis addressed why Bell was a polarizing prospect among fans and analysts and why I believed Bell has the athleticism and patience to prove his naysayers incorrect.  Time to check on Bell’s progress.

The major criticisms of Bell’s game are that he 1) runs too much like a small back and won’t make plays with his agility in the NFL and 2) He bounces too many plays outside and needs to run tougher. Based on what I’ve seen this season – and a reflection of much of much of the analysis below – the progress report is a mixed bag.

The critics are correct that Bell makes choices like a small back. However, they are dead wrong about Bell not having enough quickness and agility to make productive plays with this style of running. Because Bell has been able to use his agility and quickness to his advantage, he is bouncing too many plays outside. It’s  not so much that he needs to run tougher because he has shown plenty of power. What’s problematic for some to grasp is that Bell’s agility is at the root of the same types of rookie obstacles that we saw from backs like C.J. Spiller, LeSean McCoy, and Jamaal Charles.

Once this trio of backs learned when to bounce plays outside or drop the pads and pound inside based on down and distance situations, their home run speed became a true factor in their games. The difference between these backs and Bell is that once the Steeler runner learns to base his decision-making on down and distance situations, fans will begin to see the more punishing side of Bell’s game.

Agility and Quickness

Bell has shown that he can bounce plays outside and get the edge on a defense since he earned his first start in the regular season.

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Bell makes two cuts towards the edge, beats defensive end Brian Robison around the corner and takes it to the end zone. It’s a product of decent blocking the the cornerback peaking his head inside the tight end at the edge that gives Bell the angle to the flat. One of the things Bell is good at doing consistently is manipulating defenders to commit in the wrong direction and lose their original angle.

Here’s a run against the Lions last week where Bell earns the first down because of his agility. This is a 1st and 10 with 10:18 in the opening quarter against a Lions’ defense that commits eight defenders in the box to stop the run.

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In a situation like this, the running back has to demonstrate good press and cut back skills to give his teammates a chance to generate a crease he can exploit. Bell will do this by pressing inside towards the right guard and center before bending the run to the tackle and ends.

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Once Bell nears the opening, he cuts outside towards the edge. At this point, Bell opts to make a second press and cut back against the defender at the edge. If he doesn’t do so, the location of the defender’s helmet to the inside shoulder of the tight end indicates that the defender has inside leverage and should be able to wrap Bell at the line of scrimmage for a minimal gain.

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Bell reaches the tight end and edge defender and makes a move towards the outside. When he does this, the edge defender and the defensive back in the right flat will react to the move and slide outside just long enough for the Pittsburgh runner to exploit the gap to the end’s inside shoulder.

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Dip outside . . .

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Edge defender moves head from blocker’s inside shoulder to outside shoulder, giving up his leverage  . . .

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Bell slides inside . . .

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Bell bursts through the gap inside that he creates with his short area agility. Remember, Bell had excellent agility times during pre-draft workouts. If you didn’t trust what your eyes saw with the former Michigan State runner’s quickness during his college career, his workouts substantiated the analysis that Bell’s quickness would not be an issue.

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Bell bursts through the crease and earns 12 yards untouched, forcing the defensive back to give chase rather than approach over top because of his initial move at the edge of the crease.

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Bell dips away from the safety as he crosses the first down marker and is eventually dragged to the turf after a gain of 14 yards.

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Later in the game, Bell bounces a second run to the far side end on a shotgun run for positive yards in the red zone. A big back bouncing outside to the far side tackle from the shotgun in the red zone cannot be a ponderous runner.

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Although this run requires quickness on Bell’s part, it is a well designed run when examining it from the perspective of the formation. The Steelers are in a trips set to the left and this creates a situation where most of the defense is to the left of center. If blocked as planned, the center should be able to reach the linebacker at the right hash, the right guard and right tackle should seal the defensive tackle and defensive end and the receiver in the right flat should handle the cornerback. This could give Bell a one-on-one with the safety.

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So far, so good. Bell takes the exchange as the center works towards the linebacker and the guard and center engage the right side of the Lions’ defensive line.

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Bell considers working between his backside guard and tackle. On the one hand, I like that he’s at least thinking about getting down hill as soon as possible even if he ultimately bounces the run around his tackle. It’s a good choice, too, because Ndamukong Suh is working free of his man and will be meeting Bell unblocked if the runner enters this hole.

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Bell is quick enough to bounce the run around the edge of the right tackle despite the fact that the defender has outside leverage.

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If Bell were as slow as characterized by some, this would be a tackle for a loss within the next step, if not right now. Instead, Bell dips the inside shoulder and takes the corner.

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Bell is fast enough to turn the corner and get his pads downhill. As the cornerback works up the flat, Bell decides to hurdle the defender.

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Up . . .

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Over . . .

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And still maintains his balance as he lands after contact.

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I’m not a big fan of runners hurdling defenders because it’s a reckless decision with more potential harm than good for the back and his football team. However, it’s still a fine display of quickness and agility from a back some deemed unable to execute these types of plays at the highest level of football.

Here’s a rare running play in Pittsburgh where the offensive line creates a hole fast and Bell doesn’t have to do much to create. The primary crease will be at left tackle and the receiver tight to the formation will dip between the end and tackle to root out the defensive back No.28.

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The first course of action is for the Steelers’ left tackle, left guard, center, and right guard to slant to the right side and seal the inside while the ends seal the outside. As you can see with the location of the helmets, the offensive line has done its job moving the Patriots defense inside.

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Bell approaches the line of scrimmage in a straight line and then bends the run outside to press the hole. The wide receiver tight to the formation at the beginning of the play works inside to address the safety. He doesn’t score a direct it but it’s enough to hook the defender and give Bell room to hit the crease. Bell is agile enough to change direction, make a second shift of weight and get downhill with an angle away from the DB.

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The slight stutter and change of direction does the trick and the next three frames show Bell hitting the crease with good burst and gaining positive yards.

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The blocking is sound, Bell makes a quick decision, bursts through the crease, and its a six-yard gain.

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Of course, rarely does an NFL offensive line open this type of crease on a consistent basis. Good NFL starters have to demonstrate superior athleticism and/or creativity and decision-making to earn quality production. Bell has the athleticism. The decision-making is not all there but compared to other backs that have entered this league and had similar gaps of knowledge and maturity, Bell is on the right track.

Agility and Underrated Power

What I’ve read from critics who I know watch football is that Bell needs to run tougher and he needs to use his frame better. In some respects, I agree. However, there are enough examples where Bell displays power than people overlook because of poor statistical production. It’s also an illustration of a back integrating moves with his upper and lower body and powering through contact.

In fact, I’d say Bell does so many things right on this play, that if I could show him his run and the next 2nd and 4 run I’m going to show you, it would prove an instructive for the rookie to know when to create and when to drop the pads and take whatever is ahead of him. At this point of his rookie year, Bell has to do a better job of reading the field and making the decision that will put his team in the best position to succeed.

On this play, Bell bounces the run outside after the two defensive tackles and the inside linebacker show good position inside to foil a run up the middle.

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There are several factors why I think Bell made a good decision to bounce this play outside. The first is the team’s field position. The Steelers are near mid-field and a potential loss of yards here doesn’t compress the range of plays that Pittsburgh might otherwise run if Bell lost yards inside its own 20. Further, it’s a first-quarter run on 2nd and 4. If it was a fourth-quarter run at the edge of field goal range and his team was down by two, then taking a risk to bounce a run outside and lose yards would be a bad decision.

Second, Bell spots three defenders capable of penetrating the middle before he even reaches the line of scrimmage. Bell’s best shot to earn positive yards before dealing with contact is to bounce outside. A third reason, is the position of the cornerback, who is working away from the line of scrimmage and with enough depth that Bell has a chance to win this one-on-one match up.

If the corner had his pads squared down hill and/or closer to the line, Bell would be better served to make one dip to slide to the right side, square his pads as soon as possible and hit the crease against the linebacker. Perhaps he could slide inside this linebacker, avoid direct contact and at least minimize a loss or earn a short gain.  This is what Bell should have done on the next 2nd and 4 run that I show.

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On this play, Bell reads the line and reacts accordingly, sliding to the edge after first considering the next hole from the center.

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As Bell dips to the edge note the cornerback outside the right hash beginning to square his pads and work to the line of scrimmage. Bell has an advantage due to the distance and the fact that he is the first to get his pads downhill and anticipate the defender.

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First, Bell has to take the edge. The rookie does this with a quick stiff arm on the edge defender coming free.

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It takes strength, balance, and quickness to ward off a defender while moving east west without a lot of downhill momentum. But because fans aren’t seeing Bell run through open holes with a start of 5-7 yards before dropping the pads on a linebacker and running over the defender, the runner’s power isn’t as obvious.

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After turning the corner with the stiff arm, Bell gets down hill and assesses his angle on the cornerback. What I like is that within five yards of making two moves to bounce outside and then a stiff arm, Bell still has a head fake in his arsenal to set up the cornerback. The defender bites outside due to the fake and Bell now has a chance to run inside the defender’s angle.

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Now Bell lowers his pads and sizes up the backside pursuit, delivering a forearm on No.28 as he crosses the first down marker.

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It’s not a highlight-reel play, but it’s an effective move for a back who has already made several on just this run alone.

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It’s also a move that affords Bell the opportunity to gain five yards after contact. When Bell can do a better job of knowing when not to create on runs, he’s going to be even more dangerous when these creative opportunities present themselves.

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Another display of power is a four-yard gain on 2nd and 11 with 9:38 in the first quarter of the same game. This is a zone play with Heath Miller functioning as the lead blocker. The line does a good job opening the initial hole, but Miller fails to seal the second level and this is where we get another glimpse of Bell’s strength.

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Pittsburgh double teams the back side end and the center and front side guard attack the Patriots’ linebackers.

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As Bell approaches the exchange point with Roethlisberger, the position of the silver helmets at the line of scrimmage are indicating this play to the right side should yield a crease at the line of scrimmage. The three Patriots defenders in the middle of the field each have their helmets to the left shoulder of the lineman blocking them. Although the right tackle doesn’t have inside leverage on the front side end, Miller is entering the hole and should help seal that edge so Bell can pass.

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As Miller approaches the line of scrimmage, the right tackle has turned the end just enough that Bell should reach the crease untouched. The center has engaged the inside linebacker and the right guard is about to engage Donta Hightower at the right hash.

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Bell does a solid job of pressing this crease with an approach to the middle of the line of scrimmage and then dipping to the right as he reaches the crease. I have seen plenty of criticism that Bell is too slow to the hole and he needs to be more aggressive hitting the crease. If Pittsburgh ran a gap-style running offense where the back follows a pulling lineman to one crease and that’s the only true choice for the play design, then I’d agree.

However, zone blocking requires more patience to the hole and then a hard cut and burst down hill when that hole opens. When the line isn’t opening holes fast enough, the back has two choices: create or take whatever he can get with brute power. Once again, this decision-making boils down to field position and down and distance.

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Bell gets as close to the line of scrimmage as possible and then dips to his right. Because he exhibits the patience necessary for a zone run, the right tackle has been given the time to turn the end to the outside and the guard has reached Hightower in the second level. If Bell hits the intended crease without this slower approach, he’s likely wrapped by the end and hit by the linebacker at the line of scrimmage for no gain. This is part of Darren McFadden’s problem on zone plays and why the Raiders return to more of a gap scheme with him.

It’s another example why fit with a system is important. If health weren’t an issue for McFadden and he was on a more balanced offense, McFadden’s explosive athleticism and aggressive mindset “to and through” the line of scrimmage is a great match for a gap style offense. Some backs can do both well. Bobby Rainey, the Buccaneers’ new back, has shown good skill as a zone runner and gap runner at Western Kentucky just as he did Sunday against the Falcons. If I were to assess which style he’s best at, I’d say he’s better suited to zone, but his facility with both made him an underrated player.

As Bell crosses the line of scrimmage, Hightower gets outside leverage on the Steelers’ guard.

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Hightower, who has the size, weight, and strength advantage on Bell, hits the running back high. However, Bell isn’t the smallish back Hightower is used to running roughshod and the Steelers’ runner doesn’t collapse to the turf on his side despite the linebacker initiating an indirect collision.

In the RSP publication, I grade players on three basic types of balance when they are carrying the football: direct collisions, indirect collisions, and making cuts. Every ball carrier should display good balance when making a cut. If he doesn’t, then he will have initial struggles at the NFL level and he will need to address if footwork as soon as possible.

Skill with handling direct collisions are more times than not a matter of technical skill. Whether a 185-pound scat back or a 250-pound bruiser, good pad level, knee bend, and attacking the oncoming collision can help a player maintain balance or at least fall forward.

However, one of the true ways to tell if a ball carrier has uncommon balance is whether he can stay upright when a bigger man gets a flush hit on him from an indirect angle. Ryan Mathews has had his ups and downs as a professional – and much of it has stemmed from how he handles adversity. When it comes to pure ball carrying, Mathews’ balance to bounce off flush hits from an indirect angle was one of several factors that made him a first-round talent.

Bell doesn’t lose his footing with this hit and he continues forward as the defensive back slips inside Miller and delivers a second hit with Hightower wrapped around the Steelers’ back.

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As we see at least once a week in football, a second hit can often dislodge the first defender from the ball carrier and spring that runner loose. The defensive back makes most of his contact on Bell and the runner doesn’t go down. Instead, Bell transfers some of the energy of that collision into momentum to spin.

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Bell begins to spin loose in the frame below as Hightower is forced to slide to Bell’s hips in an attempt to drop the runner.

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At this point, it’s a stalemate as a third Pats defender enters the fray.

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The whistle blows and Bells’ progress is ruled stopped after four yards. Not a great play on 2nd and 11, but this is tough running. It’s not tough and productive for the situation, but the tools are there. Rome wasn’t built in a day and most NFL running games aren’t built during a season.

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Decision-Making and Maturity: Room for Improvement

Bell’s athleticism can get him into trouble when the Steelers’ offensive line fails to open a crease and the rookie has the option to create or bull his way into the backs of his teammates and take whatever he can get. As I mentioned earlier, he doesn’t always know how to determine when he should do one or the other.

Here’s a 2nd-and-2 run where I would characterize the play as “right process, wrong outcome” because of the down and distance, the score of the game, time on the clock, and the field position. The Steelers spread the field just enough that it hopes Bell can find a crease on this short-yardage play in Patriots’ territory early in the first quarter of this scoreless game.

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As Bell takes the exchange, note the various defenders I’ve circled below and the gaps they are covering. There is no true open at this point of the run. If this was 3rd and 2 or the setting of the game was different, Bell might be best served to ram the ball behind the lineman with the greatest push and get whatever he can to set up a 3rd-and-short.

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However, I believe Bell has license to create on this play and he tries to press the hole to the right by beginning his approach towards the left and bending it back.

 

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The Patriots defense has done a good job filling the gaps inside (blue and red) and covering the front side and back side gaps (green and orange).

 

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At this point, Bell should probably lower the pads and take on the linebacker coming over top or try to slide outside No.68 and squeeze the run between this blocker and the backside defensive back No.37. Neither of these options are likely to produce a significant gain, but this “find the home run hole” mentality is what Bell has to temper.

 

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The linebacker shoots the gap, hits Bell in the legs, and drops the runner for a loss. Again, bad outcome but the setting allows some leeway for Bell to be creative and fail with a short loss. It happens to every back in the NFL.

Here’s a play where Bell has to be more conscientious about his decision-making in contrast to the 2nd-and-4 gain where he earns five yards after contact and did a good job reading the defensive back’s position so he could bounce the play outside. This play Bell does everything wrong.

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The Steelers’ line hopes to create its primary crease off right tackle and use the fullback, tight end, and wide receiver to seal the edge and second level so Bell has a one-on-one with the safety at the right hash. This is the type of play that is tempting for an athletic runner to bounce outside. Fellow Big-10 alum Laurence Maroney appeared to have turned the corner on a play similar to this during a 59-0 blowout of the Titans in a snowstorm when he kept a play inside, lowered the pads through the defensive back and busted the run up the gut for a touchdown. However Maroney failed to turn the same corner that many of his contemporaries did and left the league shortly after.

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Bell approaches the exchange point and the interior linemen are already engaged. If they can force the Patriots defensive linemen to work to left, Bell has a nice press and cut to the right. The frame below illustrates that this is exactly what happens.

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Bell will begin his press and cut between the frame above and the next shot. Note the position of the safety. Bell needs to read this player on this 2nd-and-4 run. The Steelers are already down by seven and approaching midfield. This is a time to make a conservative decision and if he breaks some tackles in the first or second level, great. If not, third and short isn’t a bad situation for Pittsburgh.

 

 

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As Bell begins his cutback in the frame above, note the fullback working through the crease towards the linebacker just inside the right hash. Bell needs to focus on hitting his crease with downhill momentum and getting his pads low. If the fullback gets a good block, Bell might be able to slide inside the safety or run through the defensive back’s hit for a first down.

The worst-case scenario for his play is the edge defender on Heath Miller sliding inside and wrapping Bell at the line of scrimmage. Again, not a big deal in the scheme of this series. However, Bell still has the home run mentality at work and it’s the rookie runner who fails his teammates in this situation.

In the frame below, Bell sees the edge defender’s helmet on Miller’ inside shoulder and fixates on the possibility of bouncing the run to the edge. The corner store is in sight for Bell and he hasn’t learned that there’s a time when taking a side trip is a bad idea. With the safety in position to earn a good angle through three possible gaps and close to the line of scrimmage with his pads down hill, this is one of them. Remember, on the 2nd and 4 play I showed where Bell bounced the play outside for a nice gain, the defensive back began the play working away from the line of scrimmage, the field position was different, and the game was scoreless.

 

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Bell decides to bounce the play to his right because of his fixation on the edge defender’s head inside the tight end. When focusing solely on the first level, this is the correct read. However, within context of the play design and the defensive back, it’s all wrong. This bounce outside will also give the linebacker outside leverage on the fullback.

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Bell works across the back of his tight end in the frame below and at that point, the play is over. The edge defender pops outside as the safety continues shooting the inside gap. Bell realizes he has made a mistake midway through his gap and displays the tentative nature that can plague any good zone runner when he makes a bad decision.

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Now Bell engages in some unproductive, wishful thinking and tries to revisit the inside gap. The safety shows Bell why it’s too late.

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Bell is now forced to plow through the defender to reach the line of scrimmage and earn minimal yardage. If he didn’t get greedy, he might have earned four yards with good pad level, downhill momentum, and a leg drive if he displayed greater maturity.

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Bell is a good, young player in a difficult position. The Steelers’ offensive line is struggling, the coaching staff is under pressure, and it’s possible we might see a new offensive system – if not a new staff – in 2014. If Pittsburgh has a different coach next year, Bell – and what he does best as a runner – might not be the best fit for this organization. It will be easy to view the rookie as part of the problem.

If you look at Bell’s skills and decision-making on the field, he’s one issue away from upping his 3.1 yards-per-carry average to the 4.1-4.3 range. Bell needs to study these down and distance situations, do a better job reading the field, and repeat after me when he sees them: Don’t be a hero.

 

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