Posts tagged Matt Waldman RSP

Emerging Talents: Lamar Miller

0 Comments read Players, Running Back
Second-year pro Lamar Miller reminds me stylistically of Clinton Portis. The upside is also there to reach that skill level. Photo by Keith Allison
Second-year pro Lamar Miller reminds me stylistically of Clinton Portis. The upside is also there to reach that skill level. Photo by Keith Allison

Evan Silva termed Miami running back Lamar Miller “the early preseason-buzz MVP.” Understandable. He’s a back whose talents reminded me of two of his University of Miami predecessors: Clinton Portis and Edgerrin James.  The 2012 rookie is earning a lot of encouraging PR from his organization. With Reggie Bush leaving and third-year back Daniel Thomas not flashing the promise that Miller demonstrated in limited time, there’s good reason for Miller to be coined an emerging talent in 2013.

Miller was my No.3 back in the 2012 Rookie Scouting Portfolio behind Trent Richardson and Doug Martin. Here’s my brief summary of Miller from these rankings:

Lamar Miller is a potential Pro Bowl back. He’s at the sweet spot in terms of height, weight, speed, and acceleration. He runs with patience, balance, and he protects the football. He understands how to stay close to his blocks until an opening develops and like Clinton Portis and Edgerrin James before him, he knows how to shorten his steps in traffic until he finds a cutback lane or alternate crease when the primary hole doesn’t come open. He runs with good balance and power between the tackles. He can run through contact and he has good enough footwork to prevent defenders from getting angles on him. He bends runs with good speed and he has shown some skill to pick and slide towards creases or press a crease and cut back. He keeps his legs moving after contact and his pad level is consistently low enough that he bounces off hits and maximizes his output on carries. He knows how to minimize his surface area in the hole and still get down hill fast. 

Miller is fast and his burst is Pro Bowl-caliber in the respect that when given a hole he can accelerate past all three levels of a defense and turn a 10-yard gain into a 40-yard touchdown. There is little doubt that Miller has a ton of physical talent, but there are plays where he seems to go out of bounds too willingly where he could have fought to stay in the field of play and gain more yardage. These plays occurred when time wasn’t a factor for the drive. Miller catches the ball as well as any back in this class. He uses his hands to snare passes and he repeatedly demonstrated the ability to catch the errant throw with good body control and concentration. I saw him make an acrobatic catch that was over 25 yards from release point to reception that many college WR’s can’t make.

Miller’s effort as a blocker is not good enough. He will deliver a punch and he has skill at getting the correct angle to make a block. However, he doesn’t sustain the contact and work hard enough to maintain that position. Miller diagnoses blocks effectively, but he has to do better with his cut blocking. He drops his head too early As a run blocker, he seems more worried about getting hit from behind or hurt in the act of blocking that helping his teammates make plays.

I can see the Clinton Portis comparisons because Miller has game-breaking speed, explosive lateral agility, and enough down hill power and balance to generate big plays in multiple ways. The difference is that Miller makes running the football look easier than Portis did in college and I think it might be part of the perception that his effort isn’t always there when in fact, he’s just more graceful than people realize. Purely on ability, he could start for an NFL team today. The key will be how well he transitions from a college campus to professional life.

Lamar Miller highlights:

[youtube=http://youtu.be/f7dxPzUBoi4]

After the draft, I dropped Miller a couple spots in my post-draft rankings, listing him as a “bad fit,” with a caveat:

Here’s another loaded depth chart situation in Miami where the draft pick will have to beat multiple teammates for an opportunity. Although Miller and Daniel Thomas are different styles of runner, Reggie Bush played well enough that it’s difficult to expect the rookie will see playing time as more than a return specialist unless Bush gets hurt. Past history does call Bush’s durability into question, but the former Saints runner stayed healthy in 2011. Running back has a short-term career cycle in the NFL so calling Miller’s fit “bad” today can change to “great” tomorrow.

Apparently, tomorrow is here.  Below are links to play-by-play reports and grading reports from two of the three games that I believe best represent Miller’s skill and potential. These reports are the backbone for the analysis that I provide to those who download the Rookie Scouting Portfolio every year. My readers who want the bottom-line may not spend a lot of time with this portion of the publication, but they know the analysis they get in the front of the book is based on the exhaustive detail of the process I share for the sake of transparency.

Lamar Miller Sample Play-by-Play Reports

For more analysis of skill players like this post, download the 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio available April 1. Prepayment is available now. Better yet, if you’re a fantasy owner the 56-page Post-Draft Add-on comes with the 2013 RSP at no additional charge. Best, yet, 10 percent of every sale is donated to Darkness to Light to combat sexual abuse. You can purchase past editions of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio for just $9.95 apiece.

Tulane QB Ryan Griffin and The Disconnect Between Evaluating and Drafting Talent

0 Comments read Players, Quarterback
Is QB Mike Glennon a draft-not-to-lose pick? If he goes in the first two rounds, I think so. Photo by Akulawolf.
Is QB Mike Glennon a draft-not-to-lose pick? If he goes in the first two rounds, I think so. Photo by Akulawolf.

The flavor of Texas versus Nation week may well have been 6-4, 216-pound Tulane quarterback Ryan Griffin. NFL Draft analyst Dane Brugler was among several who believe Griffin’s stock is on the rise to the point that he should hear his name called in April. Compared to the Geno Smiths, Matt Barkleys, Mike Glennons, and Tyler Wilsons of this prospect class, the changing perception of Griffin’s draft grade seems like an afterthought. The fact that Griffin served as the front man for a 2-10 squad doesn’t  help.

It’s one thing for a non-quarterback talent like Matt Forte, a Tulane alum playing for a routinely over-matched team to earn a high draft grade, but quarterbacks with losing records aren’t at the top of most draft boards. Still,  we hear every year from the likes of those who study the game at the front lines that if the first trait you hear about a college quarterback is that he’s a winner and a leader it means that he can’t play at the NFL level.

Eric Crouch. Kellen Moore. Tim Tebow. Ken Dorsey. Kliff Kingsbury.

The list of winning college quarterbacks with no NFL game is long. It’s also filled with passers who possess NFL potential, but their college win-loss record dampens their reputation, lessens their exposure, and diminishes their draft stock. Based on the way reps are given to NFL quarterbacks in many organizations, the lower the draft pick, the less likely that prospect sees meaningful time to develop his game.

It’s a processes that skews the dynamic that the better NFL talent is at the top of the draft board. Don’t get me wrong, I believe if every team had open competitions among quarterbacks on NFL rosters that the higher draft picks would tend to perform better than the lower picks, but I believe it wouldn’t be as dominant an edge as the current data suggests.

The reason is that positional need and a prospect’s attributes away from the field appeal to draft-day decision makers just enough that skill and talent aren’t the only factors involved in a player’s evaluation. Sometimes these other factors are important, but I also believe they often mislead decision makers.

The Disconnect Between Evaluating and Draft Talent

Play fantasy football for any length of time and you learn there is difference between evaluating talent and drafting talent. One is about identifying who is worth picking. The other is about knowing when to pull the trigger. As much as the media likes to combine the two when they use on-air analysts like Mel Kiper, Mike Mayock, and Todd McShay, there are two separate skills that often generate more conflict than congruence.

This is a major reason why I don’t do mock drafts. I don’t interview prospects. I don’t have an organizational understanding of the strengths and weaknesses of evaluators. I don’t know the total football philosophy, teaching, and management styles of coaches or the inner dynamics of the players on every team.  What I can see and understand is on-field behavior.

The way some NFL executives value win-loss records, they may think a 2-10 team like Tulane looks like this. Photo by Tulane Public Relations.
The way some NFL executives value win-loss records, they may think a 2-10 team like Tulane looks like this. Photo by Tulane Public Relations.

There is no greater example of the disconnect that can exist between scouting and drafting talent than at quarterback. Alex Marvez reports that NFL scouts and management are divided on the importance a quarterback prospect’s win-loss record. Marvez recounting of the Broncos’ inner debate of the merits of Jay Cutler, Matt Leinart, and Vince Young is a great example.

I evaluated all three players. Young was the most physically talented, but he played in an offense that did not require him to develop the craft of quarterbacking from the pocket. Leinart had a good start on the craft needed for the NFL game, but he lacked the physical talent. Cutler had the best combination of athleticism, passing skill, and mental toughness on the board.

I had Cutler as my top quarterback, Young No.2, and Matt Leinart as an overrated prospect – essentially tied with Bengals backup Bruce Gradkowski – at No.3. Read Marvez’s piece above and you’ll see that my perspective that the combination of physical talent, positional skill, and on-field behavior mirrors the takes of many NFL scouts. However, the 2006 NFL draft order for the three was Young first, Leinart second, and Cutler third.

It’s not much of a coincidence that Young’s team won the national championship, Leinart’s team won a national championship the year before and then faced Young’s team in the 2005-2006 title game, and Cutler was on a bottom-dwelling SEC team. Scouts are worker bees; they aren’t the major voices in most NFL war rooms. The general managers and executives are the ones who tend to place the greatest emphasis on win-loss record.

“In many respects, you’re going to be asking him to carry your team in the NFL,” [former Colts GM Bill] Polian told FOXSports.com. “If he can’t carry his team at the collegiate level, which is quite a bit lower in terms of the level of competition, what makes you think he can do it at this level?”

Polian makes a good point and it’s one that I think is lost on many – possibly Polian himself. I admit that may be parsing the words of the former Colts GM too finely here; Polian may believe that “carrying a team” is more than just a winning record. At the same time, I do think his response and Marvez’s report illustrates that win-loss record carries too heavy a weight in the warrooms of NFL teams.

Re-Thinking the “Winner” Concept

Greg Cosell, the producer at NFL Films, wrote a thought-provoking conversation starter about why he thinks the NFL culture needs to re-think the “winner” concept. I’m continuing that conversation here, because I believe Polian’s idea of “carrying a team” is the best place to start. If NFL executives do a better job of defining how a quarterback carries a team, they will do a better job of integrating talent evaluation into the draft-day process.

Returning to the 2006 NFL Draft of Young-Leinart-Cutler, we would later learn that Young – who many would say “carried” the Longhorns to a BCS title – lacked the maturity and work ethic to cross the great emotional divide between being a talented pro prospect and becoming a consistent, productive pro player. Leinart – a Heisman Trophy Winner – had many in the media drawing parallels to Tom Brady’s game, but he also had difficulties crossing the same divide as Young.  Leinart and Young were on rosters with a lot of future NFL players.

Cutler is the one college quarterback who consistently showed he could carry his team against opponents that outmatched his teammates. Photo by Jeffrey Beall.
Cutler is the one college quarterback who consistently showed he could carry his team against opponents that outmatched his teammates. Photo by Jeffrey Beall.

The same can’t be said of Cutler. Vanderbilt’s notable NFL players from the Cutler era include Jovan Haye, Earl Bennett, and Jonathan Goff.  Texas and USC’s list is staggering by comparison:

  • Shaun Cody
  • Mike Patterson
  • Mike Williams
  • Frostee Rucker
  • Reggie Bush
  • Deuce Lutui
  • Steve Smith
  • Winston Justice
  • Ryan Kalil
  • Terrell Thomas
  • Fred Davis
  • Chilo Rachal
  • Sam Baker
  • Lawrence Jackson
  • Keith Rivers
  • Sedrick Ellis
  • Roy Williams
  • Nathan Vasher
  • Bo Scaife
  • Derrick Johnson
  • Dave Thomas
  • Cedric Griffin
  • Michael Huff
  • Brian Robison
  • Michael Griffin
  • Aaron Ross
  • Jamaal Charles
  • Jermichael Finley

Cutler was also the subject of another intense debate during that 2006 NFL Draft. The Titans executives, coaching staff, and scouts each had different favorites. Owner Bud Adams clearly wanted Young. The scouts wanted Cutler. The coaches were split. Norm Chow, Leinart’s former offensive coordinator and the Titans coordinator at the time, wanted his former pupil. To the best of my knowledge, Fisher’s favorite has never been made public. However, it was divulged on draft day that then-Broncos coach Mike Shanahan called Fisher the night before and asked him about Jay Cutler. Shanahan told the media that Fisher believed Cutler had everything you wanted from a quarterback. The Broncos traded up for Cutler and while he has his flaws, he has been far and away the most successful of the 2006 class and still has potential for a better career ahead.

When I watched Young, Leinart, and Cutler, the player I thought who did the best job of “carrying” his team was Cutler – no contest. The reason is that I define the concept of carrying a team as putting players in position to succeed regardless of the level of competition or the data in the box score – including the scoreboard. Leinart had surrounding talent who routinely put the USC quarterback in position to succeed more than the other way around.

One of the big reasons I had Steve Smith as my No.3 receiver prospect in 2007’s draft class was that he demonstrated NFL-caliber athleticism, technique, and awareness in situations that his quarterback Leinart created when his execution was not NFL caliber. Smith carried Leinart as much or more in the passing game than Leinart carried Smith.

I’d argue more.

Despite great surrounding talent, there was no question that Young carried his offense at Texas. However, Young was thrust into a pro game that expected him to acquire and refine skills that were not the strength of his game. My buddy Sigmund Bloom has wondered how Young may have fared if his introduction to the NFL game was through a spread/pistol scheme that Robert Griffin has in Washington. I think it’s a fair question, but just six years ago the NFL was still fitting square pegs into round holes.

Drafting to Win vs. Drafting Not to Lose

The change in mentality is still slow because present decisions seemed to be reinforced by past history. There’s an urgency for teams in need of a quarterback to select one in the first round despite the fact that the failure rate remains high. ESPN’s Mike Tirico asked Bill Parcells during his inaugural Draft Confidential special in 2011 why teams continued to draft quarterbacks in the first round despite the failure rate and the Hall of Famer said that every other team is doing it, and the fear of not getting one drives you to do the same.

Former NFL.com and NFL Network analyst Chad Reuter, a talent evaluator with economic training who has provided analysis to NFL teams, gives even better explanation of this dynamic:

The fear of not finding a quarterback certainly comes into play for most teams. Let’s face it, coaches without a strong quarterback are probably going to be looking for work sooner than later. I have a mathematical background so I have a bit different way of looking at this problem that a lot of coaches and football guys like Parcells may not. My research into drafting quarterbacks reveals a second-round prospect’s chances of becoming a solid starter is around 20 percent, maybe a little higher for earlier picks in the round.  But the likelihood of a second-round pick at another position becoming a true difference-maker is probably 50-50 at best.

So, if you value a QB 3-4 more times than a typical position player it is understandable to me why people will take that 20 percent chance on finding a quarterback . . . If somebody says, “I’ll flip a coin and I’ll give you $100 if you guess correctly,” you expect a value of $50 because you have a 50-50 shot of getting it right. If someone else says, “If you cast this die, and you roll a one then I’ll give you $400,” then that expected value will be $66.66  (1 out of 6 x $400). The math of it makes sense for teams that believe the QB is worth the chance.

That’s not exactly what Parcells was saying, but that’s what most coaches would tell you if they had the mathematical background.A 20 percent hit rate in the second round isn’t very good, but it continues to get worse and worse as the draft goes on. The Bradys — and even the Hasselbecks — come few and far late in the draft. So I can understand why teams take the chance.

The math makes sense to the degree that it explains the results of the current decisions that NFL teams are making. However, that math doesn’t tell why a second-around prospect has less of a chance being a difference maker than the first-rounder or why the Bradys and Hasselbecks are rare. The standard explanation is that better talent tends to be drafted earlier than lesser talent.

The problem I have with this explanation is that the teams experiencing success often have game changers who were exceptions to the rule: Tom Brady, Kurt Warner, and Russell Wilson are three examples. The greater the exception, the more dramatic the advantage. Playing the percentages may keep a team from making draft-day mistakes that compound with each pick, but it can also keep a team from winning big.

Organizations often use the data “not to lose.” The problem with making these decisions based on this data is that when a team fails on these “not-to-lose,” first-round quarterbacks  it has committed to a three- or four-year process of giving a player a chance and/or a huge sum of money. Considering the career span of the average NFL player is still around three years and also the approximate length of a team’s playoff window, missing on a high-round quarterback and playing out the string of “appropriate development time” is a huge setback.

Based on what I believe about Matt Barkley and Mike Glennon’s game, selecting them in the first two rounds of the 2013 NFL Draft will be a decision two teams will make “not to lose.” They fit all the safe bullet points in terms of physical potential, system, and basic skills at the position. Neither possess the slam-dunk, early-round skills, in-game performance, and potential to put their players in position to win on as consistent a number of snaps as I value. The problem with making these decision based on this data is that when a team fails on this “not to lose” early-round passer is that it has committed to a three- or four-year process for a lot more money than taking a lower-round talent with equal or greater potential, but less marquee value.

Teams also miss on additional talent that can be parlayed into acquiring a quarterback. Trades for marquee quarterbacks may be rare, but you can’t tell me that the Vikings and Broncos talent weren’t a draw for Brett Favre and Peyton Manning. Quality attracts quality.

Considering need is fine, but I believe a team should always build on talent. If the talent fits the need – great, but the most important skill that evaluators and executives may need to develop is how to resist the pressure of succumbing to need over talent and fooling themselves into thinking they haven’t.

Whether I’m right or wrong about Barkley or Glennon is not the point. The disconnect between scouting and drafting  is apparent and it will continue even if Russell Wilson’s selection and open opportunity to earn the job in Seattle is a potential glimmer of change. However, Wilson was a winner at N.C. State and Wisconsin. Marvez’s piece shows that there is a belief  if the quarterback isn’t succeeding when it comes to the bottom line then it’s a red flag for his NFL potential.

Fascinating that on the one hand football is the ultimate team sport, but no individual is more celebrated and coveted in any sport than quarterback. NFL team and personnel believe that you can’t win without one, yet there are plenty of superstar passers who lacked the surrounding talent to get the job done. It’s not a one  or the other proposition.

Why Ryan Griffin is a More Appropriate “Not to Lose” Option With “Draft to Win” Characteristics

Tulane’s Ryan Griffin is the example of a talented quarterback lacking the surrounding talent to elevate his draft status. Unlike Jay Cutler, Griffin lacks the mobility to make big plays with his legs or the extraordinary arm talent to make pinpoint throws from corners that defenses paint him into. Griffin is a classic pocket passer.

Some say that the pocket passer is dying in the NFL. I think that’s a melodramatic statement. A truer reality is that the NFL is becoming more open minded to schemes that allow mobile quarterbacks to continue using their skills within a complementary offensive  framework. Pocket passing isn’t dying as much as its monopoly is breaking up.

Griffin may never get the opportunity as a late-round pick to thrive like the marquee names of his 2013 draft class, but I think Griffin – even with his flaws – has shown enough that if he were at USC, Maryland, or Arkansas, “earning a draft pick” wouldn’t be a part of the conversation this late in the process. What Griffin’s game displays that’s as good or better than the likes of Barkley or Glennon is his in-game acumen, pocket presence, maneuverability, and accuracy down field.

These are skills that if you read some of the commentary from those reporting at Texas v. Nation, it sounds as if Griffin vastly improved in these areas since the end of the season or displayed skills he hasn’t shone before. This notion that Griffin is a surprise to those who truly study prospects is inaccurate. Brugler studies players year-round, I doubt his reporting was based on being “surprised,” as much as following what he’s heard from scouts. I think many of those surprised by Griffin were those who overlooked the Tulane quarterback because he plays on a struggling team and isn’t at the top of the draft day radar.

Here are five plays that demonstrate how Griffin’s skills aren’t isolated to the effects of some magical elixir he imbibed from the Great Gazoo.

Pre-and Post-Snap Reads

The game I’m using features Tulane against the University of Houston. Because the Cougars built an early lead, Tulane abandoned the run early and they only tried one play action pass the entire game. The commanding lead also gave Houston the opportunity to blitz Griffin, which creates a good environment to observe a pocket passer under duress.

Tulane uses a short passing game – a lot of 10 and 20 personnel shotgun with swing passes to backs and short perimeter routes to receivers complemented with crossing routes. However, Griffin is also effective as a deep passer. His first foray down field in this game came on 1st and 10 from the Houston 41 from a 1×2 receiver, 20 personnel shotgun set with 13:01 in the half.

This is the pre-snap look Griffin has, the safety rotation just before the snap, and Griffin's resulting read.
This is the pre-snap look Griffin has, the safety rotation just before the snap, and Griffin’s resulting read.

Houston’s initial alignment is two safeties high, but late in the pre-snap phase the safeties rotate to a single-high look. Griffin notes this change and as he takes the snap and drops back, he looks to the opposite hash where the safety is creeping up.

Griffin reads the safety shift, which means the safety as the slot man. The LB takes the RB flanking Griffin's left. The outside corners have the perimeter receivers one-on-one and the safety over top as center field.
Griffin reads the safety shift, which means the safety as the slot man. The LB takes the RB flanking QB’s left. The outside corners have the perimeter receivers one-on-one and the safety over top as center field.

This is a good post-snap read and Griffin understands that the rotation of the safety from the right flat to the middle gives his single receiver running a streak up the right flat a one-on-one opportunity that is the quarterback’s best chance to hit a big play. Griffin finishes a decent, three-step drop from the gun and delivers the ball 38 yards down field from his release point to the receiver’s reception point at the Houston 10.

Griffin's receiver has great vertical separation on the corner. The lack of horizontal separation from the center fielder is Griffin's doing.
Griffin’s receiver has great vertical separation on the corner. The lack of horizontal separation from the center fielder is Griffin’s doing.

It’s not as apparent as the future shots will make it, but Griffin throws this pass short. The receiver is already turning his shoulders back to the quarterback as he’s tracking the ball and it’s this shoulder turn that is a sure sign that the ball is late or under thrown. I’ll show why the short throw is not an issue of anticipation, but first let’s continue to examine the end result. Griffin’s throw is not only forcing the receiver to slow his stride, but it’s giving that safety the angle to break up the pass that a better throw would otherwise prevent.

The receiver should have caught this pass, but the quarterback should have made the catch uncontested.
The receiver should have caught this pass, but the quarterback should have made the catch uncontested.

GriffinA5

GriffinA6

As the ball arrives behind the receiver, the safety knocks the ball away from the WR’s grip. If Griffin throws this ball 2-4 yards further down field, the receiver catches the ball in stride behind both the corner and safety, and has a strong chance of scoring. The issue isn’t the timing, but the distance. However, you’ll see later that arm strength isn’t Griffin’s problem. On this play, it’s his feet.

When Griffin finishes his drop and hitches forward his feet are nearly three yards apart before he steps into the throw.
When Griffin finishes his drop and hitches forward his feet are  too far apart before he steps into the throw.
Stepping into the throw and widening the gap further, Griffin is unable to generate the power through his hips that he needs to throw the ball down field.
Stepping into the throw and widening the gap further, Griffin is unable to generate the power through his hips that he needs to throw the ball down field.

The pass should have arrived somewhere between the six and eight yard line for the receiver to continue his pace down field, run through the arrive pass, and catch it in stride beyond the defense. Although this is a mistake that costs Tulane a touchdown, Griffin comes back to the same receiver on the very next play and finds him on a slant for 26-yard play.

On the next play, Houston rotates his safeties in the opposite direction, opening the slant behind the defender creeping up.
On the next play, Houston rotates his safeties in the opposite direction, opening the slant behind the defender creeping up.

Griffin reads the safety working towards the box and hits the receiver on the slant breaking behind the defender – the same receiver he under threw the play before.  What I like about this play is the eye control to manipulate the defender.

Griffin knows he want to hit the slant, behind the safety, but holds that safety to the flat in the box with his eyes on the back.
Griffin knows he want to hit the slant, behind the safety, but holds that safety to the flat in the box with his eyes on the back.

Better yet, Griffin’s shoulders and knees are pointed to the back, further selling the swing pass. A beat later, the ball is out of Griffin’s hand and the safety has reacted to the back, opening a window behind him for the ball to reach the slanting receiver.

Oops.
Oops.
Pass arrives in stride and with a ton of open field ahead.
Pass arrives in stride and with a ton of open field ahead.

Pocket Presence and Footwork

Although Griffin’s feet weren’t in great position to throw the touchdown at the top of the second quarter, this 2nd-and-even pass with 1:55 in the third quarter from a 2×2 receiver, 10 personnel shotgun set is all about a players ability to climb the pocket and keep his feet in position to make an accurate throw down field.

Griffin's eventual target is the receiver slot right up the seam for a touchdown, which he makes happen when he buys time in the pocket.
Griffin’s eventual target is the receiver slot right up the seam for a touchdown, which he makes happen when he buys time in the pocket.

GriffinC2

Griffin finishes a five-step drop as the right defensive tackle stunts around right end and the left defensive end work around the left tackle. The receiver slot right is still covered at the hash. After Griffin’s first hitch, the quarterback’s feet are spaced at an appropriate width to deliver the ball with distance and power.

GriffinC3

Better yet, Griffin feels the pressure from his blind side, climbs the pocket with two hitch steps and maintains good width with his feet to deliver the deep ball.

GriffinC4

Although Griffin’s foot width as he delivers the ball is nearly as wide as the previous deep throw, the fact that he finished his drop with a narrow foot width gives the quarterback more control as he hitches forward and begins his release. The ball travels 50 yards from Griffin’s release point to the receiver’s reception point – a 41-yard pitch and catch for a 51-yard score.

GriffinC5

The Tulane receiver lost the ball from a punch-out at the seven, but recovers it in the end zone for the touchdown. Great throw from Griffin, who maneuvers the pocket and keeps his feet under him.

I also like that Griffin has the maturity to know when to buy time and when to throw the ball away. On the first play of Tulane’s initial possession of the fourth quarter, pressure up the middle flushes Griffin left and forces the quarterback to throw the ball away. On the next play – a 2nd-and-10 pass with 14:09 left in the game from a 2×2 receiver, 10-personnel – Griffin feels pressure once again, but this time has room to hang in the pocket and make a play.

GriffinD1

After a five-step drop, Griffin has two shallow crossers working open and an intermediate cross developing as both edge rushers get around the corner.

GriffinD2

Griffin does a fine job of reducing his shoulder from the outside pressure and climbs the pocket with his eyes down field.
Griffin does a fine job of reducing his shoulder from the outside pressure and climbs the pocket with his eyes down the field.
Griffin finishes climbing with his feet in position to deliver an accurate throw.
Griffin finishes climbing with his feet in position to deliver an accurate throw.
GriffinD5
Griffin delivers the intermediate cross 17 yards down field to the same flat, hitting the receiver in stride.

Arm Strength

Griffin lacks an elite arm, but he has a starter-caliber arm right now with room to improve that arm strength as he adds more weight to that 216-pound frame that was listed at 206 pounds at the beginning of his senior season. This deep ball on a 2nd-and-three from the Tulane 41 with 10:55 left is a good example. Tulane runs a 10 personnel shotgun set with receivers 1×3 and Griffin’s target is the outside receiver on the trips side.

GriffinE1

Griffin takes three hitch steps to climb the pocket between edge rushers.
Griffin takes three hitch steps to climb the pocket between edge rushers.
Griffin looks off the safety and has his feet under him to execute a good throw.
Griffin looks off the safety and has his feet under him to execute a good throw.
Griffin gets the ball over 50 yards down field from the far hash to the near flat.
Griffin gets the ball over 50 yards down field from the far hash to the near flat.

The Tulane quarterback hits the receiver in the hands 50 yards down field, but the receiver drops the ball because he lays out for it early. If the receiver runs through ball rather than leaps for it at the 47 he probably catches this in stride.

If I’m seeing these skills from Griffin it’s likely another NFL team likes what they see from the Tulane product. Griffin will have to do a better job of reading man-under and other variations of zone. He’ll also have to curb his desire to power the ball into tight spaces or over linebackers in coverage who have good drop depth. None of his issues are fatal flaws. The only one may be his win-loss record and the mountain he may have to climb as a late-round pick or free agent.

For more analysis of skill players like this post, download the 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio available April 1. Prepayment is available now. Better yet, if you’re a fantasy owner the 56-page Post-Draft Add-on comes with the 2013 RSP at no additional charge. Best, yet, 10 percent of every sale is donated to Darkness to Light to combat sexual abuse. You can purchase past editions of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio for just $9.95 apiece.

2013 RSP Update & Film Notes

0 Comments read RSP Publication
The writer is old, but his equipment has been upgraded thanks to you. Photo by Chandler Mowery.
Same old writer, but new equipment – thanks to you. Photo by Chandler Mowery.

It’s been a jam-packed month of travel and prospect analysis over at RSP headquarters. Today’s post reveals my first update of players I’ve done play-by-play study for the 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio – 168 players (and counting).Below is the list, but first some quick thoughts about some of the players I’ve watched this month.

Before I get to that, I’d like to thank my loyal readers, who’ve helped me make two investments back into this modest venture: A new PC with two monitors and a new television. My first trusty TV for player viewing was a late-`90s Sanyo standard screen box set that I bought at a pawn shop 10 years ago. It took up a third of my desk. As you can see above, the new set and the wall mount makes a great working environment. If you’re reading this then you’ve helped make this possible.

Quick Takes

A big part of studying players is projecting potential NFL performance provided that the work ethic, scheme fit, and organizational stability are all favorable. This is why that many of my favorite players that I study each year aren’t the marquee names in the Top-100. Ask anyone who truly studies the game – especially players – and you begin to see how players can develop into contributors, starters, or even stars despite lacking a marquee college pedigree.

  • A player I can see developing into a future contributor is Arizona QB Matt Scott. His footwork is a big cause of his inaccuracy down field, but a clue to him developing better accuracy is in the fact that he throws the ball well on the run. He has good velocity and an aggressive mindset with mobility than may suit this new age of NFL offense. I’d rather take a chance on Scott late or in free agency than draft Landry Jones. I know this will ruffle some feathers of Sooners fans, but I believe it is difficult for quarterbacks to improve down-field aggressiveness and anticipation. The mechanics can improve, but I believe Scott as the mentality than Jones lacks.
  • LSU has good college backs who have done little in the NFL: Keiland Williams, Charles Scott, Justin Vincent, Rondell Mealey, and Harvey Williams among them. Joseph Addai, Kevin Faulk, and Domanick Davis are noted exceptions. The best LSU back I have seen since Joseph Addai is one of my favorite runners in this draft class – junior Spencer Ware. I’ll be writing about him soon. When I do, you’ll wonder what’s been going on with Ware or LSU behind the scenes because he was under utilized. If you love the running style of Marion Barber or Marshawn Lynch, Ware is your kind of back.
  • It’s a subtle thing, but Central Florida runner Latavius Murray has one of the strangest styles I have seen in a runner in several years. I’m looking forward to watching more of him because the best way I can describe his style is the running back version of Drunken Master boxing. I’ll have my final verdict in the next 6-8 weeks, but let’s just say he’s entertaining.
  • Michigan State tight end Dion Sims reminds me an updated version of Steeler/Ravens tight end Eric Green. Big, fluid, and with soft hands, Sims will excite an NFL team with his potential. But if you’re seeking Pro Bowl upside, I can think of at least five tight ends that I’d rather take in this draft.
  • Seeking upside potential? Rutgers wide receiver Mark Harrison has the combo of physical skills and fundamentals to develop into a better pro than collegian. Big, physical, fast enough to get deep, and capable of big plays with the ball int he air, he’s going to have days in practices where he lights it up. The question will be if he can become a consistent producer.
  • I mentioned this on Twitter on Monday: Marquess Wilson may have cost himself a chance to get drafted after quitting the Washington State program, but if you watch Wilson against Oregon you’ll see a player who didn’t quit, didn’t celebrate little victories, and continued to battle despite dropping some passes that few NFL players would catch. I see a stronger-than-you-think receiver with preternatural skills to position himself between the incoming pass and the defense and a quick first step. Wilson and Spencer Ware are the two players I’d most like to interview this year with the perspective of a GM.
  • Ronnie Williams, T.J. Moe, and Ryan Swope all have slot skills that I’m looking forward to seeing develop at the next level. Moe and Swope are the most talked about, but Williams – a receiver from Houston – is a quick, powerful for his size, and reminds me of a more explosive Davone Bess.
  • Doug Farrar and I joked around about Nick Kasa at the Senior Bowl. I’ve given him the nickname the “Ulu Knife” because like this food prep tool, he’s useful, has unique properties, but might not fit in the every-day, household offense of the NFL.
  • Collin Klein has little to offer in terms of NFL-caliber accuracy, but I love watching him play football. If you appreciate good football appropriate to the level it is, watch a K-State game with Klein at the helm. I wish I could combine Klein’s mentality for the game into E.J. Manuel or Tyler Bray’s body.

First 2013 RSP Update

As always, the Rookie Scouting Portfolio will be available April 1 for download. Prepayment is available now. The post-draft analysis will be available a week after the NFL Draft. I’m happy to say I’m on schedule for the eighth straight year to meet that April 1 deadline. You can see the players I’ve watched (often multiple times) below. You can find this list here.

QBs

  • Collin Klein
  • E.J. Manuel
  • Geno Smith
  • James Vandenberg
  • Jordan Rodgers
  • Landry Jones
  • Matt Barkley
  • Matt Scott
  • Mike Glennon
  • Ryan Griffin
  • Ryan Nassib
  • Tyler Bray
  • Tyler Wilson

RBs

  • Andre Ellington
  • Benny Cunningham
  • C.J. Anderson
  • Cameron Marshall
  • Chris Thompson
  • Christine Michael
  • Cierre Wood
  • Curtis McNeal
  • Dennis Johnson
  • D.J. Harper
  • Ed Wesley
  • Eddie Lacy
  • Eric Stephens, Jr.
  • George Winn
  • Giovani Bernard
  • Isi Sofele
  • James Sims
  • James Washington
  • Jawan Jamison
  • Jeremy Brown
  • John White
  • Johnathan Franklin
  • Joseph Randle
  • Kenjon Barner
  • Kerwynn Williams
  • Knile Davis
  • Latavius Murray
  • Le’Veon Bell
  • Marcus Lattimore
  • Max Milien
  • Michael Dyer
  • Michael Ford
  • Miguel Maysonet
  • Mike Gillislee
  • Mike James
  • Montee Ball
  • Montel Harris
  • Onterrio McCalebb
  • Orwin Smith
  • Perry Jones
  • Ray Graham
  • Reggie Bullock
  • Rex Burkhead
  • Robbie Rouse
  • Silas Redd
  • Spence Wware
  • Stepfan Taylor
  • Stepfon Jefferson
  • Zac Stacy

WRs

  • Aaron Dobson
  • Ace Sanders
  • Andrell Smith
  • Andrew Bodenheim
  • Anthony Amos
  • Brandon Wimberly
  • C.J. Hammon
  • Cameron Saddler
  • Chris Harber
  • Chuck Jacobs
  • Cody Wilson
  • Cobi Hamilton
  • Conner Vernon
  • Cordarelle Patterson
  • Corey Fuller
  • Da’Rick Rogers
  • Darius Johnson
  • Darrin Moore
  • Daymond Patterson
  • DeAndre Hopkins
  • Desmond Scott
  • Devin Street
  • DeVonte Christopher
  • Drew Terrell
  • Dyrell Robert
  • Erik Highsmith
  • Harry Peoples
  • Ivan Delgado
  • Jamal Miles
  • Javone Lawson
  • Jerry Johnson
  • Jheranie Boyd
  • Jordan Matthews
  • Josh Boyce
  • Josh Jarboe
  • Justin Brown
  • Justin Hunter
  • Keenan Allen
  • Keenan Davis
  • Kenny Stills
  • Kevin Dorsey
  • Lanear Sampson
  • La’Rod King
  • Marcus Davis
  • Marcus Sales
  • Mark Harrison
  • Markus Wheaton
  • Marqise Lee
  • Marquess Wilson
  • Marquise Goodwin
  • Martell Moore
  • Matt Austin
  • Mike Shanahan
  • Myles White
  • Perez Ashford
  • Quinton Patton
  • Reggie Dunn
  • Robert Woods
  • Ronnie Williams
  • Roy Roundtree
  • Ryan Swope
  • Shaquelle Evans
  • Skye Dawson
  • Steadman Bailey
  • Tarvarres King
  • Tavon Austin
  • Taylor Stockemer
  • Terrence Williams
  • Theo Riddick
  • Tim Wright
  • Tobias Palmer
  • Tracey Moore
  • Tyson Williams
  • Uzoma Nwachukwu

TEs

  • Andrew Power
  • Ben Cotton
  • Brandon Ford
  • Chris Gragg
  • Colby Prince
  • D.C. Jefferson
  • Dallin Rogers
  • Dion Sims
  • Gavin Escobar
  • Jack Doyle
  • Jordan Reed
  • Joseph Fauria
  • Justice Cunningham
  • Kellen Barlett
  • Levine Toilolo
  • Mychal Rivera
  • Phillip Lutzenkirchen
  • Nick Kasa
  • Ryan Griffin
  • Ryan Otten
  • Tyler Eifert
  • Travis Kelce
  • Travis Tannahill
  • Vance McDonald
  • Zach Ertz
  • Zach Sudfeld

Futures: Central Michigan OT Eric Fisher

0 Comments read Players

 

Central Michigan LT Eric Fisher reminds many of 49ers LT Joe Staley, also an alum of the Chippewas and crazy athletic for his position. Photo by >.
Central Michigan LT Eric Fisher reminds many of 49ers LT Joe Staley, also an alum of the Chippewas and crazy athletic for his position. Photo by <1977>.

I spend most of my time at the Senior Bowl practices following skill players around the field. I don’t watch a lot of line play in Mobile. Even so, it was difficult not to hear about Central Michigan left tackle Eric Fisher. The 6-foot-7, 305-pound Fisher was one of the most praised players on the field last week. The most noteworthy praise came from a great source that wasn’t even in Mobile.

Larry Zierlein is a football lifer. He has been an offensive line coach for the Buffalo Bills (2006), Cleveland Browns (2001-2004), and Pittsburgh Steelers (2007-2009). He has also coached the offensive lines of the Houston Cougars (1978-1986), Tulane Green Wave (1988-1990 and 1995-1996), LSU (1993-1994), and the University of Cincinnati (1997-2000).

The reason the last name Zierlein may also be familiar to you is that his son Lance is a sports radio host based in Houston, as well as a blogger for The Sideline View. I had a brief conversation with the younger Zierlein after practice and it was there that he told me what his father thought of Fisher. The elder Zierlein said that he would look at the rest of the tape his son sent him, but it didn’t take him long to realize that Fisher is what coaches call a “six-play” player -– a prospect who you can tell will deliver the goods on a consistent basis as a professional after watching just six plays.

It’s little wonder that a player earning this type of praise from a veteran offensive line coach has been compared to a left tackle like 49ers lineman Joe Staley, who is also from Central Michigan. Staley is known as one of the most athletic linemen in the game, and this high level of athleticism is also Fisher’s calling card. Read the rest at Football Outsiders.

Flashes: OU WR Kenny Stills

0 Comments read Players, Wide Receiver
Here's the example of Raghib Ismail attacking the football with good hand position. Photo by Joint Base Lewis McCord.
Here’s the example of Raghib Ismail attacking the football with good hand position. Photo by Joint Base Lewis McCord.

Sometimes the difference between a touchdown and a drop of a wide-open pass comes down to the difference between an active and passive approach, the space between the fingertips and the palm, and understanding why even good technique isn’t good in the wrong situation. 

Kenny Stills is a big-play wide receiver. Watch enough of his games and you’ll see a player capable of getting behind cornerbacks or winning 50/50 balls on any variety of fades in tight coverage that you can imagine. There will be plenty of positives to list about Stills’ game in the coming months.

I believe the Oklahoma star has the potential to become a long-term starter within a few years. I also believe that like any good prospect, Stills has areas to address in his game. Sometimes an issue can be such a fine point of detail that it can go unnoticed as a lack of concentration.

This 1st-and-goal pass from the eight with 2:20 in the half against Texas A&M in the Cotton Bowl is a good example the differences between decent and optimal pass catching:

  • Passive and active catching.
  • Catching the ball with the palms instead of the tips of the fingers.
  • Good and better hand position.

The play begins from 20 personnel with receivers 2×1 and the backfield configured in an offset pistol.

StillsA1

Stills was the outside receiver on the twin side with a corner playing three yards from the line of scrimmage and shading Stills to the inside. The route was a fade to the left sideline. Stills does a fantastic job working open on this route.

StillsA2

Fade routes tend to be simple patterns where the emphasis is on the pure athleticism of speed, quickness, hand-eye coordination, and leaping ability. What I love about Stills here is that the junior receiver turns this simple route into an elegant pattern. Stills begins his fade to the outside, angling his outside shoulder and drifting to the boundary while looking over his inside shoulder. The A&M cornerback reacting to this route understandably sees this as the break to the football when in fact it’s Stills’ opening move. If you read this blog regularly, then you know I have a deep appreciation for receivers who can tell a story that puts them a step ahead of the defender.

With the ball in the air, Stills continues to bait the corner by continuing to drift outside while turning his head over his inside shoulder.

StillsA3

Stills takes one more step towards the outside, plants his outside foot, and pivots to his right, turning inside out.

StillsA4

This outside turn helps Stills keep his eye on the ball and at the same time turning his back to the defender and shield the pass. This is nice route technique and it places Stills in position to make a play on the ball with plenty of room inside the boundary in position where the defender cannot play the ball. The problem begins as the ball arrives within a few feet of Stills.

StillsA5

This looks like good technique. Stills’ hands are away from his body, palms up, fingers extended, and he’s looking the ball into his hands. Nine out of 10 times, this is a technique that no one would question – perhaps 9.9 out of 10 times. However, Stills could have extended his arms for the ball with his elbows and backs of his forearms pointed towards the ball – a more active technique for acting the football in this situation.

Whenever there is a chance to take an active approach to attack to football rather than a passive one, you take it. If Stills extended as recommended, his fingers are in a better position to make first contact with the ball. Instead, Stills’ hands are in a position where the ball could just as likely strike the receiver’s palms – a part of the hand where the receiver doesn’t have the same ability to stop the spin of the ball as easily as the fingers.

StillsA6

The tip of the ball arrives directly to the palm of Stills’ right hand. If Stills has both hands positioned so both sets of fingers touch the front of the ball at either side, there’s little chance that the ball rebounds off his hand because the fingers stop the spin. Instead, the ball rebounds off Still’s right palm as the left hands is a good six inches away from the ball.

StillsA7

When the ball bounces off Stills’ right palm, the receiver raises his left hand towards the ball. At this point his hands are simply reacting to the ball and not in a good position to control the pass. This passive hand position leads to more passive reactions.

StillsA8

The ball rebounds off the palm of Stills’ left hand and begins its trajectory towards the receiver’s face mask. Meanwhile, the A&M cornerback now has a free pass to make contact with Stills and disrupt the receiver’s chance to control the football. The ball then rebounds off the face mask and his hands are too close to his chest to re-extend as the ball flies off Stills’ helmet.

StillsA9

The rebounding ball flies beyond Stills’ reach, just grazing his fingertips of his left hand.

StillsA10

The pass falls incomplete, and what should have been an easy touchdown as a product of a great route is a dropped ball. As I mentioned at the beginning of this post, Stills demonstrates good hands and excellent skills adjusting to the football. However, even good prospects have areas to improve. I believe the best receivers tend to attack the ball with aggressive hand position. This is something Stills can do with greater consistency.

For more analysis of skill players like this post, download the 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio available April 1. Prepayment is available now. Better yet, if you’re a fantasy owner the 56-page Post-Draft Add-on comes with the 2013 RSP at no additional charge. Best, yet, 10 percent of every sale is donated to Darkness to Light to combat sexual abuse. You can purchase past editions of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio for just $9.95 apiece.

Senior Bowl: North Squad WRs Day 1

0 Comments read Players, Wide Receiver
Oregon State's Wheaton shined on the first day of Senior Bowl practices. Photo by John Martinez Pavliga.
Oregon State Markus Wheaton shined on the first day of Senior Bowl practices. Photo by John Martinez Pavliga.

Every NFL team that conducts a Senior Bowl practice has a different style and process. The Oakland Raiders began and ended with special teams and utilized a lot of scrimmaging in a variety of 1-on-1, 5-on-7, and 11-on-11 situations. The drills I tend to get the most from feature wide receivers and the Raiders practice was no different.

While many people are focused on a receiver’s ability to catch the football in these practices, what has equal if not greater importance is everything a receiver does before the ball arrives. Monday afternoon’s practice included drills to test the craft of each receiver’s ability to establish and maintain separation before the ball arrives:

  • Agility drills to emphasize footwork and hip flexibility.
  • Receiver versus corner drills with an emphasis on releases within a five-yard boundary.
  • One-on-one receiver vs. corner press-man drills with a variety of routes.

None of the receivers I saw on the North squad did anything that altered my assessment of what they have or haven’t shown in their careers. Each of these prospects displayed strengths and weaknesses that I think will ultimately come down to an NFL team’s perception of a player’s fit within the organization and how patient they are with that player to develop. Of course, most of you reading this don’t care about the long view. You want to know who looked good and who struggled.

I don’t blame you. Here’s what I saw with each of the drills listed above and then the 5-on-7 and 11-on-11 scrimmages. Remember, catching the ball in these situations is nice but slightly overrated if the rest of the form, technique, and craft is missing.

This contact takes at least 1-2 steps for Goodwin to recover. He'll have no such leeway against good defenders in the NFL.
As I wrote about last year, this contact takes at least 1-2 steps for Goodwin to recover. He’ll have no such leeway against good defenders in the NFL and he didn’t in Senior Bowl practice.

Agility Drills

Receivers ran through a set of mini cones in a footwork pattern that the coach requested, ending the exercise with a curl inside as the break on the route to catch a pass. The focus of this exercise was to demonstrate fluid hip-turn, precise footwork, quickness, and strong change of direction while keeping the head up and looking down field.

Marquise Goodwin, Texas: Goodwin is a track star with excellent speed, but it was clear from the onset that his hip flexibility needs work. The Raiders coaches gave this feedback about his hips on multiple reps and even pulled Goodwin aside to emphasize the point after his third run through the drill. Goodwin attempted to do what the Raiders staff asked, but his movements were exaggerated and lacked the refined motor movement of someone capable of picking up this technique on the fly.

Aaron Dobson, Marshall: Dobson looked good in this drill. His feet were fluid, his hip turns were sharp for a man of his size (6’2”, 203 pounds), and he demonstrated some explosion making his final break to the football. He isn’t a burner, but he acquitted himself well in this opening exercise.

Chris Harper, Kansas State: The coaching staff asked Harper to pick up his feet during the drill. The 228-pound receiver is quick for his size, but his movement could stand to get sharper. I didn’t see much improvement in subsequent reps after the coach’s feedback.

Markus Wheaton, Oregon State: Wheaton was quick, crisp, and fluid with each rep. He demonstrated quick hips and good control making turns. He also caught the ball well despite some throws that were arriving at awkward windows as he executed his break at the end of each rep.

Denard Robinson, Michigan: They key takeaway from Robinson in this drill was “intent.” Robinson’s movements were careful and intentionally slow to master the precision of the footwork and hip movement with each drill. While I thought this was admirable for a quarterback-turned-receiver, eventually the coaching staff turned up the heat and exhorted Robinson to speed up during the final reps of the exercise. Robinson caught each ball cleanly, but the position is new to him and I’ll be interested to see how much he improves with this drill between now and Wednesday.

Aaron Mellette, Elon: Mellette looked fast and his feet were pretty good, but the hips didn’t move with the alacrity you want to see. He was quick, but the precision was lacking. Mellette caught the ball well and I like the athleticism, but the raw technique on this drill was a preview for the rest of the drills in practice.

Denard Robinson is known for his speed, but naturally this new convert to wide receiver was doing everything in slow motion on Day 1 of Senior Bowl practices. Photo by Adam Glanzman.
Denard Robinson is known for his speed, but naturally this new convert to wide receiver was doing everything in slow motion on Day 1 of Senior Bowl practices. Photo by Adam Glanzman.

Four-Corner Cone Boundaries vs. Cornerbacks

Two pairs of cones demarcated a 10-yard-long x 5-yard-wide boundary. The receivers faced the corners in press-man coverage. The objective for the corners was to force the receivers outside the width of the cones before the receivers reached that 10-yard distance. Lots of hands technique to study in this drill.

Goodwin: Goodwin’s size (5’8”, 179) didn’t do him any favors in this drill. When a corner locked onto Goodwin, the receiver had difficulty working free unless he used a spin move of some type to work loose. The corners repeatedly pushed Goodwin outside the width of the boundary.

Dobson: Dobson had a lot of success with this drill and the coaches praised him for playing big. The Marshall receiver used his hands well in this drill. He often bulled through the jam, or deflected the defenders’ arms and then used his size and quickness to get on top of his opponent.

Harper: Harper got coached up after getting knocked down during his first rep and his subsequent reps incrementally improved. He performed better when he played to his size, but there were moments where he tried to be use quickness to get on top of the corner and it failed. I’ll be interested in seeing if he makes the adjustment to his natural strengths in subsequent practices.

Mellette:  Multiple defenders got the best of Mellette in this drill, but has he started to use his 216-pound frame, his reps improved to the point that he began to win some of the action. Mellette is one of those players who might tease an organization because the natural ability is there, but can he accelerate his learning curve to develop into an NFL-caliber receiver. This will be the big question.

Wheaton: Wheaton was the most fluid of the receivers in this drill. He was the best at integrating his hands and footwork, using his hands adeptly to swat away the jam and position his feet to create angles so he could accelerate past the defenders with every rep. He is the most polished receiver of the North squad and there were further illustrations of this fact later in practice.

Robinson: Once again, slow motion was the theme of Robinson’s performances in the drill. I have no notes of him winning these battles. He wasn’t pushed aside as much as held up too long and unable to get on top of the defender.

1-on-1’s, 5-on-7’s, and 11-on-11’s vs. Corners with a Variety of Routes

Dobson: I continued to notice precision and fluid movement from Dobson, who demonstrated a nice mix of physical play and quickness. I watched Dobson integrate his footwork and hands well to get open on a deep fade, but the quarterback underthrew the pass and the cornerback tipped the ball away. The one thing the coaches notice that was a repeat issue came at the end of routes as the ball arrived: Dobson had a tendency to lean back towards the ball rather than attack the ball after his break. I hope to see a more aggressive finish to his routes in subsequent practices.

Goodwin: When Goodwin got a free release, he made defenders pay with his speed. However, he had a lot of wasted, imprecise movement off the line versus quality press coverage. I want to see him make incremental improvement versus press coverage. One of his best plays of the day was a crossing route with a sharp break and good catch in the thick of zone coverage. He did a nice job reaching for the ball over his head, making the grab, and turning up field.

Mellette: The most notable issue with the Elon receiver came in these drills. He had difficulty gaining position to shield the defender from the pass after his break. I like his size and quickness, but his hands technique and the depth and angle of his breaks were lacking.

Harper: He did a strong job of selling some two-move routes although I thought each of these instances the second move into his break was a little ragged and something he’ll need to sharpen. His breaks at the end of routes weren’t as sharp or as quick as the early portion of his patterns. At the same time, he’s decisive and has a nice size-speed combo that allowed him to keep defenders guessing about the tact he’d take with each rep. I did notice that he was a little better when he didn’t have to deal with contact despite the fact he’s the biggest receiver of this group. He beat a corner by two steps on a deep sideline fade up the right sideline, but Syracuse quarterback Ryan Nassib was either late on the throw or simply underthrew the ball by 3-5 yards.

Wheaton: The Beavers receiver worked well back to the football and he did a good job versus off-man technique as well as press coverage. He ran the best fade route of the North practice, gaining early separation with an outside move, slipping inside the defender to get his back to the defender and also buying real estate away from the sideline to make the quarterback’s job easier by giving the passer room to target the receiver at the sideline. Although the quarterback overthrew Wheaton, this was a textbook sideline fade that a receiver like Mario Manningham still doesn’t run consistently as well. On one route, a 12-yard out that looked like the beginning of a double move, Wheaton got the best of the corner so early into the route that the defender had no other choice but pull the receiver to the turf so he wasn’t beaten.  Wheaton’s best catch was at the end of 11-on-11’s when he beat his man on a streak up the left flat and made a turning, leaping catch behind coverage on a late, underthrown ball. If Miami quarterback Zac Dysert demonstrates better anticipation, Wheaton has a 50-yard touchdown that he catches in stride.

For more analysis of skill players, download the 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio available April 1. Prepayment is available now. Better yet, if you’re a fantasy owner the 56-page Post-Draft Add-on comes with the 2013 RSP at no additional charge. Best, yet, 10 percent of every sale is donated to Darkness to Light to combat sexual abuse. You can purchase past editions of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio for just $9.95 apiece.

Reads Listens Views 1/18/2013

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Life of Pi

This week on Reads Listens Views: Lance Zierlein with a round of “Microwave Scouting”; Ryan Riddle tells you what it was like to participate in a college all-star game; Andy Benoit previews the conference championships; three books I read this month that I think most of you will enjoy; experimental Latin music; and the 2013 RSP is available for pre-payment.

Prepayment for the 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio is Available

If you’re one of my readers who, over the years, has convinced me to offer prepayment (thank you), now’s the time. The 2013 RSP is available for $19.95 and will be available for download April (as usual). If you’ve purchased the RSP in the past, you can prepay at this link. You also get the post-draft add-on a week after the draft that includes tiered fantasy rankings, average dynasty draft spot data, team fit analysis, sleepers, UDFAs to watch, and dynasty drafting tips. It’s a second magazine-sized publication that is included with the purchase of the pre-draft publication. Past issues (2006-2012) are available for $9.95 apiece and the RSP donates 10 percent of every sale to Darkness to Light to train communities to recognize and prevent the dynamics of sexual abuse.

Senior Bowl

Once again, I’ll be at the Senior Bowl with Jene Bramel and Cecil Lammey. We’ll be covering practices and media night for the New York Times Fifth Down and Lammey’s ESPN affiliate as well as providing analysis and interviews here at the RSP blog. Stay tuned.

[youtube=http://youtu.be/jW4lDSx1GbQ]

Reads

Non-Football Reads

Here are three books I’ve read this month and I’d bet most of you will enjoy at least two of them.

  • Life of Pi by Yann Martel – I’m looking forward to seeing the movie, but the book was so good I might read it again before taking in Ang Lee’s vision of this story about an Indian Boy who is stranded on a lifeboat in the Pacific with a zebra, an orangutan, a hyena, and a Bengal tiger. The story is far less fantastical than it appears. However it is fantastic on every level.
  • The Financial Lives of Poets by Jess Walter – This is essentially what I hope to hear doesn’t happen to Chris Brown or Chase Stuart in 15 years when mid-life crisis hits. This novel is a lot of fun and will make you laugh out loud.
  • Killing Johnny Fry by Walter Mosely – Walter Mosely is one of my favorite writers. This is a much different story than his mystery novels – it’s a ‘sexistential novel.’ Not for everyone, but a good read nonetheless.

Listens

Views

 

 

 

Futures: Tennessee Gunslinger Tyler Bray

0 Comments read Players, Quarterback
Bray has the arm talent, but does he have the mental discipline to learn the game at its highest level? Photo by Wade Rackley.
Bray has the arm talent, but does he have the mental discipline to learn the game at its highest level? Photo by Wade Rackley.

We can talk the semantics of perceptions all we want, but there’s a palpable sense that the rookie quarterback class of 2012 has a viable chance to become the best in recent memory. While there are a myriad of things that can happen to alter the promising career paths of Russell Wilson, Andrew Luck, Robert Griffin, and Ryan Tannehill, the 2013 class of prospects is a letdown by comparison. That doesn’t mean it lacks the talent to exceed the lower expectations.

Tennessee quarterback Tyler Bray is a great example. Compared to Wilson, Luck, Griffin, and Tannehill’s games -– which included a level of technical discipline and decision-making maturity uncommon for most rookie quarterbacks –- Bray is a more typical rookie prospect. His flaws are more apparent to the untrained eye.

More so than any quarterback in this 2013 class, Bray fits the gunslinger mold. The Clint Eastwood movie The Good, The Bad, and The Ugly is the appropriate summation of what I see from the Volunteers prospect. Physically, he’s a franchise-caliber talent with the confidence to make big-time NFL throws. He still needs to develop the decision-making maturity and technical discipline that the headliners of the 2012 class displayed in relative abundance. The question is whether he’ll cross the divide between talent and production that all rookies must face.

I don’t want to underestimate the possibility that he’ll mature as a professional, but I have my doubts. On-field performance is the ultimate display of preparation. Right now, there are a lot of loose ends.

Bray’s performance against Georgia: 24-of-45, with 281 yards, two touchdowns, and three picks, was a great display of everything good, bad, and ugly about his quarterbacking. Georgia has an aggressive, 3-4 defense with NFL-caliber athletes like Jarvis Jones, Alec Ogletree, Sean Williams, and Bacarri Rambo. These defenders have the strength, speed, sideline-to-sideline range, and football smarts to project Bray’s current game at the pro level.

I’m probably belaboring the point, but projecting a player’s performance at the NFL level is one of the most important facets of player evaluation. An accurate throw, a wide-open receiver, or a large running lane at the college level is vastly different in the NFL. This is one of the reasons why some have often been too optimistic about running back prospects from Wisconsin in the past 15 years. At the same time, some are all-too-quick to write off poor box score data from a player like Matt Forte, a player who I once watched average less than two yards per carry against a loaded LSU defense, but still delivered one of the most impressive performances I saw from a runner that year.

In my view, the more on-field adversity I can see that tests a player’s physical skill, emotional maturity, and football smarts, the better. Bray gets his share of adversity here. Physically, he’s capable. Conceptually, he’s not prepared. This is where his game falls apart most often. Read the rest at Football Outsiders

Football Godfather: Russell Wilson (Seattle Seahawks)

0 Comments read Players, Quarterback
No one can claim they were the "first" aboard the Russell Wilson bandwagon, but I certainly helped cut down some trees to build the wagon. Photo by Neal D.
No one can claim they were the “first” aboard the Russell Wilson bandwagon, but I certainly helped cut down some trees to build the wagon. Photo by Neal D.

I’ve been asked 2-3 times a day for the past two weeks what my take on Russell Wilson was before the season. I know many of you have read my thoughts on the Seattle quarterback, but I’m going to share those original takes, some thoughts about leadership and why Wilson could be the football equivalent of Al Pacino in the Godfather. I’m also sharing a sample of my 2012 RSP Post-Draft Overall Tiered Dynasty Cheatsheet in this post for those who are new to the Rookie Scouting Portfolio – especially those seeking a reason why they should be get the RSP publication every April.

Cheat Sheet

This cheat sheet is separated into color coded tiers. Blue highlight are top‐tier picks. I expect them to make an instant fantasy impact as at least bye‐week options and within 2‐3 years develop into quality starters capable of QB1, RB1, WR1, or TE1 production. Green highlight are players that have similar upside as the top tier, but on average will need more time or work to see the field as a starter or regular contributor.

Red highlight are eventual starters, but may need 2‐3 years to attain that status. On average, this group’s upside is not as great as the preceding tiers. White highlight have the potential to develop into talented situational players within 2‐3 years. Some may exceed this projection and even become stars, but fewer in this tier have that potential than the tiers preceding them. Yellow highlight are projected backups. Just like the positional rankings, players in bold are prospects that I believe are undervalued and have the upside to develop into starters regardless of their starting point.

Value Designation

Next to each player is a value that I generated based on analysis of nine dynasty drafts. Note that it is so early in the dynasty drafting season that these values may not prove accurate even 2‐3 weeks from now. Proceed with caution with this designation and only consider it a guidepost. I calculated the average pick number for each player and I developed a designation is shorthand for the difference between how I value a player and his average spot selected:

  • Par –
  • OverX
  • Under X

“Par” means I valued the player within +/‐ 5 picks of his average spot selected. Over “X” means I value the player at least five spots lower than his average spot selected. The X represents the number I would add to the players’ average selected spot to feel he’s at his appropriate value according to my rankings. Stephen Hill is an “Over 11.” I think he’s overrated by 11 spots of his average selection spot. He’s average pick spot is 12.8 (pick 12 or 13). Add 11 spots to it and I think if a fantasy owner can get Hill with pick 23 he got good value. Realistically this won’t happen in many drafts, but it should help readers reconcile how to approach my rankings and average value. If Hill were an “Under 11,” then I’m recommending 11 spots be subtracted from his average selection spot and either pick him earlier or recognize there is value on the draft board. Note: Not all players will have a value designation.

Quarterback Running Back
(2) Andrew Luck  Par IND (1) Trent Richardson Par CLE
(3) Robert Griffin  Par WAS (4) Doug Martin Par TB
(12) Ryan Tannehill Under 6 MIA (7) David Wilson Par NYG
(13) Russell Wilson Under 27 SEA (8) Ronnie Hillman Under 10 DEN

Wilson’s Value Designation of Under 27 was the largest value of the 122 players I ranked on the full cheatsheet. Admittedly, Ryan Lindley, who was second, with an Under 22, didn’t fare so well – but I would take his situation into some account as well. On the other hand, Dwayne Allen (Under 14), T.Y. Hilton (Under 14), and Chris Givens (Under 10) were pretty good. I think you can see why I liked the Colts draft this year.

Wilson's on-field leadership reminds me of Al Pacino's Godfather: quiet and ruthless (photo by Football Schedule).
Wilson’s on-field leadership reminds me of Al Pacino’s Godfather: quiet and ruthless (photo by Football Schedule).

Back to Wilson. My greatest concerns about him was whether there would be a team willing to buck the old-guard mentality about quarterback height. You can see this caution diminish as the pieces I share with you below progress from pre-draft to post-draft. If you’re new to the RSP blog or somehow missed my thoughts on Wilson here’s what I have been saying about him:

  • Futures: Studying The Asterisk: My debut column at Football Outsiders was an analysis of Russell Wilson’s game, not at Wisconsin – where he had a line bigger than most NFL teams that dominated most opponents – but at NC State, where I believe he faced more aggressive and athletic defenses and thrived with a lesser collection of talent. In this analysis I show definitely that Wilson has the arm, anticipation, and improvisational smarts to become a starting NFL quarterback. I compared Wilson’s style to Drew Brees in his early-April analysis and then analyzed Bree’s game in this piece to show how an NFL team would have no problem finding open passing lanes for Wilson. In other words, without having to say it – the idea that Wilson was too short was hardened bullshit lodged in the minds of football traditionalists whose logic against Brees wasn’t based on the game as much as it was based on past biases ingrained in the game.
  • Undersized-Underrated: This blog post explains why Wilson’s work in Wisconsin’s offense that thrives with the running game and takes its shots deep with a play action game featuring movement, would easily transfer to the NFL. The Seahawks used a lot of these play action concepts for Wilson to be successful down field this year.
  • Russell Wilson, Drew Brees, Prince, James Brown, Jimi Hendrix and the Difficulty of Comparisons: This piece is not just about Russell Wilson, but why player comparisons are often misunderstood. This column is one I’ve still have readers mention to me months later.

Elsewhere

Thoughts Today

I have to say that I’m a converted Seahawks fan and Wilson’s addition and success with the team has been the final nail in the coffin of my history with the Tennessee Titans. I followed the Titans because Steve McNair, Eddie George, and a tough defense played a physically and emotionally resilient brand of football that reminded me of my beloved 1980s Cleveland Browns before Art Modell took them to Baltimore where the last vestiges of that team remains today.  My wife is probably having involuntary nervous ticks just from the fact I’m putting this story out here in the universe once again, because she’s heard it so often in such a short period of time. It’s my own personal Three Stooges’ Niagara Falls story.

I can’t cheer for the Ravens because in my heart that city didn’t get my team the right way. Baltimore should have known better than city not to lure a team away from city with a tradition as deep as Cleveland’s. I’m not mad at Ravens fans. It’s not their fault, really. It’s just the nature of business. But It’s painful watching the Ravens. I love Ray Rice’s game. I was chopping wood for his bandwagon as early as Russell Wilson’s. I went to the University of Miami, so don’t even talk to me about Ray Lewis. He should have been a Brown. He is a Brown. They just sent him to the wrong city. Ozzie Newsome was one of my all-time favorite players. The fact he’s such a good GM for what was my team, feels like he’s the NFL Anakin Skywalker turned Darth Vader thanks to the evil emperor Art Modell.

Again, I know it’s just business. Modell isn’t the only one at fault here. The Cleveland city government and Modell were like two dysfunctional spouses screwing up their kids – the people of the city – at every turn.  So for those of you who are all about loyalty, and stuck with the team in Cleveland known as the Browns I respect that. Perhaps one day I will have a team I’m loyal to again, but nearly 20 years with the Titans has been a good run. I hope to have the same kind of run with the Seahawks.

I share this with you because the resiliency is hard not to notice with Wilson. He’s the beacon for this team. Watching him in the season opener against a Cardinals defense that gave the Patriots fits later that month, Wilson had that game won for the Seahawks if not for a Braylon Edwards’ dropped pass. Wilson put that ball exactly where it was supposed to go and you could tell by his reaction that he expected to win this game. He’s such a polished guy when it comes to the way he interacts with others, but what I notice is that quiet, laser-focused intensity.

If I were to characterize the five rookie starters from this draft class, here’s what I see and understand this is infotainment more than hard-hitting analysis:

  • Andrew Luck: The Colts quarterback is the type of guy that you probably want to hate based on all the hype of him being the most prepared NFL prospect with the most smarts for the game since Peyton Manning. But as you get acquainted with him, you realize that he doesn’t take that shit seriously. What he does care about is football and he’s a football player first, quarterback second. He’ll knock the slobber out of defenders as a blocker and if he throws an interception, he’ll try to put that guy on the sideline for the rest of the game with a good hit. You can’t hate him for being a front-runner because he earns that title every day.
  • Robert Griffin: Griffin’s the guy that you know has potential to be a tall tale in every way and when he arrives in your locker room, you still can’t believe it. Everything is off the charts: speed, agility, execution, intelligence, and most of all the willingness to humbly grind yet balance it with leadership that belies his years. He’s also a nasty-tough player with Steve McNair-like toughness that turned Dr. James Andrews into a soap opera starlet last week.
  • Ryan Tannehill: Tannehill is that kid in backyard pickup games who looks like an average guy but when it’s time to pick teams he does himself no favors by telling the captains to pick him first because he’s the best player of the bunch. They dismiss what they think is noise and wait to pick him last. He then proceeds to make a strong case to prove his point, which is exceedingly painful to the competition while you’re feeling pretty lucky that you didn’t let him slip by. I think that’s what Tannehill did at Texas A&M as the walk-on when he told Mike Sherman the coach made a mistake not to award him the starting job over Jerrod Johnson. Still, he accepted the role of wide receiver and was the best one on the team. When he got his shot at quarterback, he was excellent at times. There’s a lot to like about Tannehill’s NFL future.
  • Brandon Weeden: There’s a laid-back, Cowboy thrill ride going on with this guy. He likes being aggressive and he doesn’t worry about making mistakes. There’s a little Brett Favre in him in that respect – both good and bad. I kind of see him as Slim Pickens riding the bomb in Dr. Strangelove. There are times he freaks you out, but you can’t help but like his daring.

Then there’s Wilson. To me, Wilson is like the Godfather. Quiet, charming, refined, but he’ll rip your heart out.  I’m sitting with 20 of my best Footballguys in Vegas two weeks ago, and we’re watching the Seahawks fall behind early, but I didn’t even worry because Wilson is all business. I initially thought the same thing when Atlanta was up 13-0 and Brian Billick was commenting on the lack of emotion on the sidelines. While I wasn’t optimistic at half-time, there is one thing I recognize with Wilson that I learned in my days a manager: teams adopt the attitude of strong leadership.

Let me emphasize that I said strong leadership, not good leadership. In my past business life, I knew a manager who was a strong leader, but he thrived on chaos. He got great short-term results but he wore everyone out at every turn and he burned bridges. He was eventually promoted and his successor turned out to be a good leader. The successor was a strong leader but he was quiet about it.

He focused on the details. He believed that separation from the competition came from preparation and focus. He also believed it mean staying calm and focused on the little adjustments when things weren’t going well and eventually you’d be back in game. When his bombastic boss would try to to instill his brand of over the top leadership (and don’t get me wrong, high intensity, vocal leadership can also be great) based on chaos to this manager’s operation, he’d quietly ask his boss to meet with him about something urgent in an office and then light into his boss. I saw it and it was pretty impressive in this situation because he fought for ownership of his style, had proof of results, and set the boundaries of expectations for his boss’ behavior while managing upward.

This quiet leader’s team took on his persona and that operation was one of the best of its kind that I saw in my years in that industry. Russell Wilson reminds me of that guy. Pete Carroll shared with the media that Wilson told the Seahawks that he had issues with past coaches and went into detail. Carroll liked this about Wilson, while it worried others. I don’t know what Wilson said, but I’d bet money that Wilson’s issues were things he shared openly, honestly, and professionally with coaches and Carroll like that because he’s not some 1950s, square-cut throwback in a leadership role who doesn’t really know anything about leadership.  As long as Wilson stays healthy and the Seahawks can continue to develop talent around him, he’ll be special.

The Boiler Room: Stanford TE Zach Ertz

0 Comments read Players, RSP Boiler Room Videos (Short Form), Tight End
Zach Ertz, another Stanford prospect, in the Boiler Room (photo by Han Shot First).
Zach Ertz, another Stanford prospect, in the Boiler Room (photo by Han Shot First).

Stanford tight end Zach Ertz declared for the draft this week. If someone could only see one play that would matter in deciding his draft day fate, which play would I use to highlight that prospect’s skills ? Will this highlight boil down this prospect to his essentials? That’s the thinking behind The Boiler Room – analysis of what makes a player worth drafting by boiling down as much as I can into a single play.

One of the challenges involved with player analysis is to be succinct with delivering the goods. As the author of an annual tome, I’m often a spectacular failure in this respect. Even so, I will study a prospect and see a play unfold that does a great job of encapsulating that player’s skills. When I witness these moments, I try to imagine if I would include this play as part of a cut-up of highlights for a draft show at a major network or if I was working for an NFL organization creating cut-ups for a personnel director.

Unlike the No-Huddle Series, The Boiler Room is focused on prospects I expect to be drafted, and often before the fourth round. Today’s prospect is another Stanford player, Zach Ertz. The 6-6, 252-pound tight end is near the top of a class loaded with several strong prospects at the position. What makes Ertz an NFL prospect is his fluid athleticism in an in-line tight end’s body.

This 2nd-and-10 game-winning score with 10:30 left against USC is a highlight you’ll see this spring when an NFL team calls his Ertz’s name at the NFL Draft.

Ertz may have in-line tight end size, but NFL teams will like that they can split him outside.
Ertz may have in-line tight end size, but NFL teams will like that they can split him outside.

This is a 21 personnel, I-formation, 1×1 receiver set. Ertz is the single receiver to the strong side facing a cornerback playing single coverage at the line of scrimmage. If you count the number of defenders in this photo, you’ll see that there is only one safety deep and in the middle of the field. This alignment confirms that Ertz has drawn man coverage. The defender is 6-1, 190-pound corner Torin Harris. Physically, this is a mismatch – especially on routes where Ertz can use his frame to shield the defender from the ball.

The easiest of these routes for Ertz to use his size would be options where he can post-up (fades) or break back to the quarterback (hooks, curls, quick slants, or outs). Where it seems less likely for Ertz to win against Harris, or any top-profile college program cornerback is a deeper route that requires a good story in order to gain separation. This is exactly what Ertz does with this corner-post for a 37-yard touchdown.

The play begins with Harris beginning his back-pedal after the snap with his back to the sideline and spying the pocket.

ErtzA2

The Trojans’ corner doesn’t try to jam Ertz because of the tight end’s size presents an advantage early in the route. Harris opts to stare into the offensive backfield and utilize his quickness to break on the football. The corner has his back to the sideline during this release down field because he hopes to funnel the play inside where he can get help from his teammates – especially if this is a short slant. Shortly after crossing the line of scrimmage, Ertz bends the route inside and looks inside as if he’s about to break on the slant.

ErtzA2 ErtzA3

As soon as Harris reacts to Ertz’s inside move, the tight end plants and dips outside  as if he’s heading for the corner. Route running is a lot like telling a suspenseful story: it’s best to be two steps ahead of the audience. Defenders are a lot like an audience. Most members of the audience anticipate the first move or change in the plot of a story. Not as many anticipate the second twist in the plot line so most of them react as if this is the true path of the story. It is this reaction where they tend to make the strongest commitment to compensate for anticipating the first move, but not the second.

ErtzA4

To generate this reaction the route runner must display a strong attention to detail, precision with his footwork, and the quickness and agility to execute with enough fluidity to manipulate the defender. Ertz demonstrates each of these facets of route running on this play, drawing Harris out of position, and forcing the corner to react in the moment.

ErtzA5

Ertz’s break to the outside forces Harris to react by turning outside and continuing his back pedal. If it wasn’t clear from the beginning of the route that the corner was playing the ball and not the man, this still reinforces it. Harris continues to the pocket while reacting to Ertz’s second break. Meanwhile, Ertz is setting up his third move, a break to the post while Harris continues to react to the potential corner route. The fact that Ertz’s position is behind and shaded to the corner’s outside shoulder keeps the tight end just out of Harris’ peripheral vision. Despite the fact that Ertz is not within site of the corner at this moment, he still sells the outside break with his head.

This detail is important because he doesn’t know what the exactly position or sight line the corner will have before he executes the route and failing to sell even the slightest detail can tip off a defender. Further, there is always the chance that the safety doesn’t buy what Ertz is selling and works to the middle of the field early enough to foil the play.

ErtzA7

By the time Ertz breaks inside, Harris has committed enough to the post route that it will require a bad throw for the corner to recover and defend the pass. The direction of the knees and hips tell the story. In this case, Harris falls for the bait and the result is Ertz gaining at least three steps of separation.

ErtzA8

If you outlined Harris and pasted that outline in this space between him and Ertz, there would be enough room for three outlines. Ertz turns towards the throw and gets his head around and his hands up. A route with this detail of movement to set up the break requires the receiver to make a late adjustment to track the football on a pass that should be arriving with some heat.

ErtzA9

Everything about Ertz’s form at this point is perfect: His back is to the defender thanks to his work to set up the break; his arms are extended to the first available point to catch the pass; and his hands are in position to make the catch with his palms facing the ball and his fingers up and splayed inward. When you see a receiver catch the ball close to his body in this situation it’s often because he lacks confidence in his ability to catch the ball with his hands or he doesn’t have mastery of knowing the correct hand position to use to attack a ball that is between belt and chest level. This pass is a little higher than that, but still in an area where I see receivers have difficulty with the position of their hands.

ErtzA10

Within a step of catching the ball, Ertz does a good job of securing the pass and looking to the safety approaching from the inside. The plant and dip under the defender is another demonstration of quick thinking and agility.

ErtzA11

As Ertz finishes planting the outside foot and turning his hips inside, he also lowers his pads in anticipation of contact and has both hands on the football. These are all good reactions. The only thing Ertz doesn’t do is get the ball closer to his body in anticipation of a hit. Fortunately for the Stanford tight end, his move is good enough to avoid the safety and get the ball tucked firmly into his inside arm as he breaks from the outside pursuit.

ErtzA12

The to the middle of the field not only helps him avoid the safety, but it also puts Ertz’s teammate in position to block Harris. All that is left between Ertz and the end zone is the pursuit behind him.

Ertz13

Remember that Ertz just executed a sharp change of direction that would slow the gait of any player. As No.16 closes on Ertz, I like how the tight end demonstrates the awareness to dive for the goal line. It illustrates that Ertz saw the backside pursuit as he made this cut inside the safety and that he has skill at processing what to do as a ball carrier in the open field. Within a few steps he extends the ball towards the end zone, just ahead of the defender attempting to punch the ball loose.

ErtzA14

Ertz anticipates the defender, dives for the goal line, and lands in the end zone maintaining control of the football. It’s the culmination of a play that illustrates why a defender better not take this big man for granted. Harris playing the ball over the man did just that and he paid the price.

Ertz is a lot like Bengals receiver Jermaine Gresham, a big, physical, and agile player capable of developing into an NFL starter and intermediate threat with big-play ability. What this play doesn’t show you represents a lot of what he’ll need to improve: using his hands at the line of scrimmage and making receptions after contact from a defender. If he can improve his game, I think he can develop into a performer with Heath Miller’s upside. I still have more to study so don’t take the Miller comparison as anything more than a distant summit of Ertz’s potential. Still, the view from this level is promising.

For more analysis of skill players like this post, download the 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio available April 1. Prepayment is available now. Better yet, if you’re a fantasy owner the 56-page Post-Draft Add-on comes with the 2013 RSP at no additional charge. Best, yet, 10 percent of every sale is donated to Darkness to Light to combat sexual abuse. You can purchase past editions of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio for just $9.95 apiece.