Posts tagged Matt Waldman RSP

The Boiler Room: RB Stepfan Taylor, Stanford

Kick off my Boiler Room series is Rose Bowl MVP Stepfan Taylor (photo by Han Shot First)>
Kicking off my Boiler Room series is 2013 Rose Bowl MVP Stepfan Taylor (photo by Han Shot First)>

One of the challenges involved with player analysis is to be succinct with delivering the goods. As the author of an annual tome, I’m often a spectacular failure in this respect. I will often study a prospect and see a play unfold that does a great job of encapsulating that player’s skills. When I witness these moments, I try to imagine if I would include this play as part of a cut-up of highlights for a draft show at a major network or if I was working for an NFL organization creating cut-ups for a personnel director. That’s the thinking behind The Boiler Room – analysis of what makes a player worth drafting by boiling down as much as I can into a single play. Unlike the No-Huddle Series, The Boiler Room is focused on prospects I expect to be drafted, and often before the fourth round.

[People] don’t like to break a player down, look at his particulars. That involves details. Most people get bored with details. Because in order to look at the details, you have to love what you’re doing, and you have to be highly motivated. I loved playing football. I relished the details.

– Jim Brown

Today’s prospect is Stanford running back Stepfan Taylor, who is the Cardinals’ all-time leading rusher. He’s a versatile power back and while I’m still refining my stylistic comparison, Leroy Hoard comes to mind. This 1st-and-15 screen pass for a 23-yard touchdown with 0:36 in the third quarter against USC to force a 14-14 tie is a big reason why. It’s also a play I would insert at the top of Taylor’s highlight reel for a personnel director’s viewing because there are a lot of details to mine from this single play.

This screen begins from 3×1 receiver, shotgun formation.

The two guards and center are the three linemen who will lead Taylor on this screen while the tackles pass block the edges.
The two guards and center are the three linemen who will lead Taylor on this screen while the tackles pass block the edges.

Taylor helps set up this screen to the right flat by approaching the right guard at the line of scrimmage as if he intends to pass protect.

I like that Taylor is nearly flat-footed and still enough to sell the idea he's in pass-protection mode.
I like that Taylor is nearly flat-footed and still enough to sell the idea he’s in pass-protection mode.

As soon as the edge rusher works inside the tackle, Taylor releases inside the defender and turns to the right flat. Many running backs don’t execute the release with precision, but Taylor’s break is as sharp as a receiver skilled at running a cross in a high-traffic area. Look at Taylor’s position as he crosses the right hash and it’s easy to see he executed a sharp, tight turn to set a position where his blockers can work down field and at the same time executing this tight turn outside the right tackle to create an obstacle between himself and any backside pursuit.

Note Taylor already has his head around before the quarterback is even halfway through his release.
Taylor’s sharp turn also means the RT is in position to pick up the backside pursuit if needed.

Note Taylor already has his head around before the quarterback is even halfway through his release. One of the more frequent mistakes seen on screen plays is a running back who doesn’t turn his head to the quarterback and get his hands in position to catch the ball as he’s executing his break. This precision and detail is going to be something that endears him to coaches if it translates to his pro career. Odds are likely that it will.

TaylorA4
Taylor extends his hands to the football and looks the pass into his body before turning up field. At the same time it’s a fluid catch and turn so he can be in position to assess his blockers and what’s ahead.

Taylor A5

At this point, Taylor approaches this run after the catch with similar concepts a runner uses at the line of scrimmage by pressing a hole and cutting back.

TaylorA6

Taylor doesn’t have to work this far to the numbers, but as he turned up field two photos prior, he saw in an instant that pressing the outside and cutting back to the inside accomplishes multiple things. First it gives his right guard room to seal the outside pursuit directly ahead. The left guard at the 15 benefits from this press and cutback because it widens the defender ahead of him and gives the guard an opportunity to seal the outside while the center works to the inside. If Taylor succeeds with this press and cutback, he will create a lane where he just needs to outrun the backside pursuit through a large crease. Once again, this is a sign of a runner who understands how to use his blockers and is processing information quickly to set up a more sophisticated plan of attack.

TaylorA7

Taylor’s press comes dangerously close to a point where he could get his legs chopped at the line of scrimmage for a minimal gain, but the runner trusts his feet to get him through trash. The next frame illustrates the kind of balance and footwork that Taylor has to make this play work. The red circles below are Taylor’s feet as he avoids the defender’s tackle attempt.

TaylorA8

Despite splitting his feet apart at a wide angel while airborne, Taylor lands without stumbling and maintains his stride.
Despite splitting his feet apart at a wide angel while airborne, Taylor lands without stumbling and maintains his stride.

The balance to avoid the defender he left at the line of scrimmage also means Taylor can set up the blocks ahead with another press and cut back, widening the lane once again and trusting his footwork to get him through.

TaylorA10

Check out the position of Taylor’s body as he executes this press outside and prepares for the cutback. His hips are bent so his backside is sticking out enough to provide a low center of gravity that will aid Taylor’s change of direction. The runner’s shoulders are leaning forward and his eyes are up. This is a balanced running form capable of breaking or eluding tackles. I don’t see this form in the open field as often as you’d think.

Compare the photo above with the one below and you’ll understand just how much this knee and hip flexibility and shoulder angle aids his change of direction. The photo above is taken just before Taylor plants his right foot into the turf to change direction to cut inside his left tackle’s block. The photo below is take just two steps later.

TaylorA11

Look how tight Taylor is to the left guard. His stride and body position to make this controlled cut is the reason. It’s a sharp change of direction but with enough room and speed to lead almost a yard of space between Taylor and the backside pursuit. A lot of backs either lack the discipline or body control to make this subtle of a move – especially backs 215 pounds and up. I also like how Taylor’s pad level remains low, giving him the chance to cut through a glancing blow if necessary. Running with abandon is fun to watch, but that phrase is more about intensity and aggression. Control is still an important facet of successful ball carrying.

TaylorA12

The only recourse the backside pursuit has at this point is to dive for Taylor’s ankles. Before analyzing this screen pass and run at this level of detail, it’s easy to imagine that Taylor nearly gets caught because he lacks speed. After viewing his form and set up of blocks, I think it’s more accurate to conclude that Taylor eliminates this defender’s best angle. Faster backs lacking Taylor’s control would have succumbed to this back side angle a couple of yards earlier.

TaylorA13

Taylor runs through the wrap to his ankles, again his stride and low center of gravity generated partially by his stride helps, and he now has another press and cut back scenario ahead. This time he continues inside another step before breaking outside to split the blocks of his tight end and receiver to reach the end zone.

TaylorA14

Six.
Six.

The subtlety of this play highlights the subtlety and attention to detail of Taylor’s game. If I were seeking a running back, I’d want one who understands how to create and eliminate angles as a blocker, receiver, and runner. Taylor can do all three. I think he’s one of the safer bets for a team seeking a contributor.

For more analysis of skill players like this post, download the 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio available April 1. Prepayment is available now. Better yet, if you’re a fantasy owner the 56-page Post-Draft Add-on comes with the 2013 RSP at no additional charge. Best, yet, 10 percent of every sale is donated to Darkness to Light to combat sexual abuse. You can purchase past editions of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio for just $9.95 apiece.

Chicken or Egg: RB Stefphon Jefferson or Nevada Scheme?

The chicken or egg argument in football is between the individual and the team. One example is junior RB Stepfon Jefferson or Nevada's offensive scheme (artwork by Banksy, photo by Jan Slangen).
The chicken or egg argument in football is between the individual and the team. One example is junior RB Stefphon Jefferson or Nevada’s offensive scheme (Artwork by Banksy. Photo by Jan Slangen).

Nevada running back Stefphon Jefferson declared for the NFL Draft this week. Looking at the numbers, it’s hard to blame him. Although he only had 73 carries as a freshman and sophomore, his junior year blew away all expectations:

  •  375 carries and 397 total touches
  • 5.0 yards-per-carry average
  • 1883 yards rushing
  • 2053 yards from scrimmage
  • 25 total touchdowns

Jefferson only had one game in this year with fewer than 20 carries and seven of those contests were 30-carry workloads. Listed at 5-11, 210 pounds, the junior runner has the build to add another 5-10 pounds, which would make him a prospect with suitable dimensions to become a potential lead back or feature runner if going strictly by these numbers.

It’s also worth noting that Jefferson is a patient runner.  He does a good job of pressing a hole and cutting back to the open lane. I’m impressed with how he allows his blocks to develop and hits the hole at a good angle – often doing so with a decisive burst. The problem is that behind all of these positive details is a runner who might be more of a product of this Nevada Wolfpack scheme. In the right NFL system, Jefferson has enough positives to develop into a contributor. The key phrase is “the right NFL system,” because in the wrong one, he might not make the team.

There are several issues that I’ll address in the 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio, but the most glaring one is something that I first hoped were flashes of maturity rather than a deficiency in his game. Most backs I see in the college game tend to use their speed, quickness, and agility to bounce runs outside or attempt risky cutbacks. I’ve coined this tendency as Taking It to The Corner StoreThis syndrome can be fatal for a running back’s career, but it generally has a strong recovery rate. Jamaal Charles, LeSean McCoy, and C.J. Spiller recovered nicely. The last known career casualty has been Laurence Maroney.

It’s unusual when a player has the opposite problem and doesn’t possess the cutback skills to bounce runs away from penetration or take advantage of larger cutback lanes to the opposite guard or tackle. So when I first saw Jefferson eschew a cutback lane and lower his head into the line of scrimmage to get what was available ahead, I wanted to believe he was taking a wiser course of action that I criticize many back for ignoring. Unless I see something different in the next few months, this is not the case.

Jefferson lacks the ability to make sharp, explosive, lateral cuts. Like Darren McFadden, he’s more of a run bender than a slasher. McFadden’s ability to bend runs at top speed makes him an exceptional case among NFL runners, because few straight-ahead, speed runners succeed in this era of pro football without pro-caliber, NFL lateral agility. Based on what I have seen from Jefferson, I don’t see a back with McFadden’s speed.

Here are six runs of Jefferson’s from Nevada’s bowl game against Arizona that illustrate why Chris Ault’s pistol attack complements Jefferson’s style while masking weaknesses that could limit the runner’s appeal in the NFL Draft. These runs are representative of the 30-plus attempts I saw from Jefferson against the Wildcats: carries through large holes or attempts where Jefferson could bend a run towards a secondary crease after passing through a large primary hole.

Big Holes, Big Plays

Ault’s run system isn’t purely a gap or zone scheme. For the uninitiated, a gap (or angle blocking) scheme is a ground attack where lineman pull or trap to a specific spot and the runner is suppose to run to that one area of the line and use his strength and speed to get whatever he can through the crease that the line creates. A zone scheme allows a runner to have several options to enter the line of scrimmage and the blocking tends to be slanting in a direction without the pulling of linemen.

Ault uses both methods in his offense and Jefferson’s vision is good enough that he produces well with both styles of plays. However, his style works best with gap schemes because he’s more of a straight-line runner who likes to hit the hole hard and fast. Here’s a 14-yard touchdown with 6:00 in the half that is a great angle blocking play from a 12 personnel pistol set with an unbalanced line and twin receivers on the strong side.

This is one of my favorite pistol runs. because of the alignment of the wing back.

This is one of my favorite pistol runs. because of the alignment of the wing back. Ault has designed this offense so the play can be a gap play, a zone play, a play action pass, or a straight pass. There’s a ton of versatility with this alignment and the added flavor of the receiver “ghosting” behind the runner to add the threat of the end around is just another cool wrinkle. What I love about this as a gap play is that most defenses are use to the concept of a guard pulling around center and a fullback entering the hole, but the placement and use of the wing back is just different enough to make it harder for a defender to see what’s coming at him.

Jefferson A2

Although the wing back is essentially a fullback and not far from being an offset blocker in an I formation, the angle is just wide enough that when he pulls across the formation the defender can choose the wrong gap or run right through the tunnel and mistake that light on the other side as something less painful than a 255-pound freight train. The linebacker in orange considers the gap outside the puling guard before opting for the gap to the guard’s inside shoulder. Does he see the pulling wing back? If he does, it’s still a tough angle to get good position to hit and shed that block to the ball carrier. Here’s the red zone angle of the play.

Endzone view from No. 38's perspective.
Endzone view from No. 38’s perspective.
No.38 takes one step outside to cover the gap outside left guard.
No.38 takes one step outside to cover the gap outside left guard.
No.38 is outside the pulling guard and waiting on the runner's approach, but does he really see what's lurking around the corner? Why do I feel like I'm diagramming a shark attack? I like it.
No.38 is outside the pulling guard and waiting on the runner’s approach, but does he really see what’s lurking around the corner? Why do I feel like I’m diagramming a shark attack? Worse yet, I like it.
Once the LB hops back to the inside because of his read of the RB, he's looking headlong into that 255 lb. freight train.
Once the LB hops back to the inside because of his read of the RB, he’s looking headlong into that 255 lb. freight train.
This isn't a hole, it's a large force field.
This isn’t a hole, it’s a large force field.

Jefferson hits this small canyon and goes untouched for the 14 yards to the end zone. Crazy as it sounds, this is one of the smaller craters that the Nevada line blasts in this contest.

Maturity or Agility Lacking?

Here is a 1st-and-10 with 4:22 in the half from a weak side trips, 11 personnel pistol formation. This run appears to be a zone play to left guard with a zone read for the quarterback to keep it around right end according to the position that the defensive end takes.

Jefferson B1

Jefferson takes the exchange and begins to dip the play to the inside. It’s at this point below where I think there are several ways to read and react to this play.

Jefferson B2

The elite athlete with great instincts to take risks that coaches at first find themselves on the sidelines screaming “No, no, no. . .yes, yes, YES!!!” is going to anticipate this opening with the yellow arrow before the snap or early after the play begins. He’ll also have the speed and agility to create a lane to work around the tight end and burst into the secondary for a long gain. This is a rarity even among terrific prospects because on the surface it looks like the decision of a really bad player. However the greats often break fundamental rules and get away with it due to special athleticism or anticipation.

The most common decision is the pink arrow to left end. This is where most top athletes with risk-taking, corner store tendencies will try to bounce a run once they work to left guard and don’t see a crease. This is the decision they have to curb when they reach the NFL because the percent chance they break it is much lower than the success rate in college football.

It’s the blue line that is the most sensible, conservative choice. Find the soft spot in the line, lower the pads, and bull through it. Keep the offense on schedule, don’t risk the loss of yardage, and you might possibly break through the line for a big play. In other words, let the defense make the mistake rather than you making the mistake.

Jefferson B3

This is exactly what Jefferson does. He approaches the soft spot, puts his head down, gets two yards untouched, and then bulls against the backs of his linemen for another four as they push the pile together for a total of six. It’s a mature play and the positive of this choice is that Jefferson can develop into the type of NFL back that will get what his line gives him. It makes him a potentially reliable option. A zone scheme running game will want a more creative running back in situations other than this play where the runner has more room to operate. Let’s look at a play or two that calls for more agility.

Failed Cutback

Here is a two-yard gain on a 1st-and-10 sweep to the strong side of an unbalanced line and twin strong side receivers with 0:58 in the first quarter. The guards pull to the strong side of this pistol formation run and Jefferson either bounces the run outside or, more frequently, works between the pulling guards.

 Jefferson C1

The two pulling guards opt to double team the penetration up the middle.
The two pulling guards opt to double team the penetration up the middle.

As Jefferson rounds the corner he has a couple of lanes to chose from. What I see from this play as it progresses is a back with the vision necessary to create, but he lacks the physical agility to execute what he sees happening before him. The runner spots the unblocked middle linebacker early in this play. He’s a player a runner behind two pulling guards is expected to see blocked by one of them, but due to penetration this won’t be the case. Jefferson opts to stretch the play a little more to the outside, but remains patient about his decision.

Jefferson C3

Jefferson has a few decisions: hit the hole with the middle linebacker, split the tight end and receiver’s blocks at the hash, or work outside the hash to the flat. The first open is a minimal gain at best without some creative thinking. The second option is inadvisable because the defender’s helmet is position in a place where there’s no way Jefferson will split these defenders and get  positive yards. The third option require great burst because that same defender on the tight end is in position to work through the block and tackle the runner trying to bounce it outside – and likely for a loss.

Jefferson C4

This screen shot above is a big reason why I believe Jefferson has the vision, but lacks the physical skills to execute like an elite runner. The Nevada runner opts to take another step or two outside to press the linebacker outside and based on his footwork above, cut behind his inside blocker and force that middle linebacker to overrun his angle. It’s a great idea, but it takes top-flight agility to execute. Matt Forte could do it. Jamaal Charles? No problem. LeSean McCoy could probably add a second move in succession that would increase AA battery sales that day in the Philadephia metropolitan area due to the insane amount of rewinding going on in Eagles fan households.

Unfortunately, Jefferson can’t. Where his feet are position in the shot above is where his momentum must stop and change direction with no wasted movement. If he can do it, he cuts behind the blocker to his left. If not, he skids into the oncoming defenders. The result below shows the skid in progress.

The yellow circle is where Jefferson was and where he needed to be to make this cutback.
The yellow circle is where Jefferson was and where he needed to be to make this cutback.

The outcome of the play is Jefferson getting hit head-on and knocked backwards before he can change direction. He had to gear down to make this cut back. This is where a jump cut or lateral plant and sharp change of direction makes a huge difference. There were other plays in this game where I’ve seen Jefferson break though a large hole at the line of scrimmage, see a defender making his way into the lane and the runner finding a much smaller secondary lane between two linemen and squeeze through to transform a four-yard play into an eight-yard play. Good vision, but the play didn’t require a sharp cutback.

This one did, and it’s representative of other plays where he misses a chance to execute a cut back or opt to barrel ahead and lower the pads for a minimal gain because he knows the cutback isn’t a part of his skill set. These aren’t the risky type of cutbacks, either. Jefferson has some real positives to his game, but his physical creativity doesn’t match what he sees.

As a straight-line runner with burst, decisiveness, and patience, he reminds me of the best of what I use to see from a back like Michael Bennett, the former Wisconsin star and Vikings starter. Jefferson lacks Bennett’s top-end speed, which is also why I have doubts the the Nevada back may struggle to find a place in the NFL.

Jefferson’s 2012 production makes it a good time for him to declare for the NFL Draft, because it’s unlikely he repeats those numbers as a senior. However, his lack of agility is an indicator that he may have benefited more from great team execution of a good scheme. Throw in his difficulties with pass protection and I’ll be surprised if he has smooth and immediate transition to an NFL lineup.

For more analysis of skill players like this post, download the 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio available April 1. Prepayment is available now. Better yet, if you’re a fantasy owner the 56-page Post-Draft Add-on comes with the 2013 RSP at no additional charge. Best, yet, 10 percent of every sale is donated to Darkness to Light to combat sexual abuse. You can purchase past editions of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio for just $9.95 apiece.

The Rookie Scouting Portfolio Publication: A Q&A

New to the Rookie Scouting Portfolio blog? Haven’t heard of the RSP publication? Heard of it, but haven’t given it a try? Learn more about this annual publication that has been available for download every April 1 for the past seven years and why it has become a fave among draftniks and fantasy football owners.

BTW – Best pre-draft scouting report on every conceivable guy [at the skills positions] is by @MattWaldman. Very good read – mattwaldman.com

Chris Brown, author of Smartfootball.com and Grantland contributor, via Twitter

Q: What is the purpose of the RSP?

The RSP isn’t a draft-prediction publication, it’s an analysis of talent based on a player performance on the field.  This can help draftniks learn more about the talent of players without worrying about the machinations of the draft that are often an entirely different animal from talent evaluation. The evaluation techniques for the RSP are designed to target a player’s athletic skills, positional techniques, and conceptual understanding of the game. It also makes a great resource for fantasy football players.

Q: What makes the RSP different from other draft analysis?

I use an extensively documented process and I make the work available for the reader to see – although I don’t send them through a forced death march through the material. As a reader, you don’t have to feel the pain I had writing it – the masochism is provided at your convenience.

Still, the process is important to talk about. It has helped me arrive at high pre-draft grades for many underrated players, including Russell Wilson, Matt Forte, Ahmad Bradshaw, Dennis Pitta, Arian Foster and Joseph Addai. Where it really makes a difference is when I’m studying a player in a game where the competition limits a player’s statistical success and I’m still able to see the talent shine through. Likewise, this process has helped me spot critical issues with players like Stephen Hill, Isaiah Pead, Matt Leinart, Robert Meachem, and C.J. Spiller when others anticipated an early, and often immediate, impact.  

Q: The RSP is huge, but you say it is easy to read and navigate. How is it structure? Is it iPad-friendly?

The easiest way to describe the RSP is that it’s an online publication with two main parts:

  • The front part most people read, which is the same length of any draft magazine you see at the newsstand.
  • The back part that my craziest, most devoted, and masochistic readers check out – all the play-by-play analysis of every player I watch.

The RSP has a menu that allows you to jump to various parts of the publication so the crazy detail in the back doesn’t swallow you whole and you never return to reality. I continue to provide the back part because many of my readers love to know that I back up my analysis with painstaking work. In that sense they are also sadists, but being the ultimate masochist that I am – I appreciate their sadism.

“The GoodReader app takes anything I want to read in PDF form, presents it very nicely, and makes the document portable and enjoyable. The encyclopedia that you’ve created (which I absolutely love 25% into it) would require someone to peer into his or her computer/laptop screen for a very long time. On an iPad inside that app it bookmarks your place and makes reading long files a joy…AND PORTABLE.”

-Ray Calder

Q: How is The Rookie Scouting Portfolio rooted in best practices?

I managed a large branch of a call center and eventually had responsibility for the performance evaluation of over 70 call centers around the U.S. I began my career from the bottom-up. I was heavily involved in recruiting, hiring, training, and developing large and small teams of employees.I often had to build large teams that competed with a client’s internal call enter and with a fraction of the budget to train and develop in terms of time and money.

We beat them consistently.

One of the biggest reasons was a focus on instituting quality processes. We figured out what was important to us, how to prioritize it’s importance, and how to evaluate our employs in a fair, consistent, and flexible manner to spot the good and bad. Eventually, my company sent me to an organization that provided training for best-practice performance techniques that successful Fortune 500 businesses tailored to their service and manufacturing sectors.

The most important thing I learned that applies to the RSP is best practices for monitoring performance. Although the original purpose for my training was to monitor representatives talking with customers over the phone, these techniques also made sense to apply to personnel evaluation in other ways. Football is one of them.

Think the NFL couldn’t use a best-practice approach? Read about its current evaluation system and what former scouts have to say about the management of that process and you’ll think differently. The RSP approach makes the evaluation process transparent to the reader and helps the author deliver quality analysis.

Another “best practice” I’m implementing in 2012 is “giving back.” Ten percent of each sale in 2012 is going to charity.

Q: What do readers think of the RSP?

I collect these emails like one of my favorite pizza joints in Colorado collects napkin drawings from customers and places them all over the walls of its restaurant. If you have one you want to send me, please feel free. I’ll add them my list. Here are some of them below:

“If you don’t buy the RSP, be prepared to get dominated in your rookie draft by someone that did.”

– Jarrett Behar, Staff writer for Dynasty League Football and creator of Race to the Bottom.

“In complete awe of the 2007 Rookie Scouting Portfolio via @MattWaldman — Incredibly in-depth analysis that required time & football smarts”

– Ryan Lownes, NFL Draft analyst, writer or DraftBreakdown.com.

“Any diehard #Dynasty #fantasyfootball fan should go get @MattWaldman’s Rookie Scouting Portfolio bit.ly/I4fOa2 You’ll thank me later”

-@JamesFFB NFL Draft analyst, enthusiast, and writer for DraftBreakdown.com and Bleacher Report.

“For someone like me who doesn’t closely follow the college game, there is nothing I have found even vaguely measuring up to your thoroughness and point by point analysis of the draftable rookies. Among my favorite things is that at the core you rely on play rather than comparing stats produced or combine numbers. Measurables I can get anywhere, but numbers offer little perspective on what they mean or what factors together created them. I want to know what a guy looks like out there, who plays fast – rather than who runs fast in shorts with no one to dodge or avoid. Which WRs can and can’t run routes or consistently get separation or catch with their hands or fight off defenders to make contested catches. Your exhaustive package gives me a basis to work from including a careful look at every significant player. I can read and add the views and comments and stats I want to like ornaments on the Christmas tree – where that tree is the foundation of player abilities that you weave together into a ranked whole.

I have no way to know how right or wrong your conclusions are. You certainly don’t shy away from controversial evaluations. But overall, for just plain understanding of who the rookies are, how they play and what we might expect in the NFL – I don’t know of anything close. After reading this tome, I would feel blind and naked walking into a rookie draft next year without having that insight. My huge thanks!”

Catbird, Footballguys.com message boards

“Love your work. I’ve subscribed to your RSP for the past 3 years and it is my bible for dynasty league rookie drafts.”

– David Liu

“In our business, we are able to access many different types of reference materials. The Rookie Scouting Portfolio stands above the rest for one simple fact: it is more comprehensive than anything else I have seen. Matt Waldman is head and shoulders the best fantasy football expert I have had on the air, and his expertise starts well before the players get to the NFL with analysis and game film study of the incoming rookie class. I can’t recommend the RSP highly enough.”

– Ian Furness
Host, Sports Radio 950 KJR
Seattle, WA

“All I can really say at first is “Wow!” There is just a TON of great and useful information packed into that report. I thought I’d give it a quick glance during my lunch hour and I found myself reading quite a bit of it over the next 2 hours. I like the way everything is laid out. It’s easy to understand and covers all the items necessary to make it a top notch scouting report for the fantasy footballer.

– Tim Huckaby

“IMHO this is a MUST read. Matt really does the work and tells it the way he sees it. Had a couple of GREAT picks this year with Austin Collie and and I think Stafford. In prior years, he has lead me to Ray Rice in a PPR no less and Mike Sims Walker… If you are like me in a Zealots league, go back and read the prior years as it helps with the RFA/UFA process.”

– Tony Madeira

Hey Matt,

Just thought you would want to know that I enjoyed the 2012 Rookie Scouting Portfolio so much that I had to buy the other six years, to see what you had to say about previous players. I’ve been playing fantasy football for over 20 years (started at age 11) and I can’t tell you how refreshing it is to see someone put this much effort into analyzing prospects skills, and then filtering that info back to their potential fantasy value.

Not sure if you have a running testimonial page but if your ever inclined to do so, feel free to use this email as one, if you wish.

Not trying to kiss your butt or anything but your work is really an inspiration for someone like myself.

Thank you for your efforts,

Sean Douglas, FantasyInfo.com’

Download the 2012 RSP or purchase past issues (2006-2011)

 

The RSP Writers Project: You Vote

The RSP Writers Poll, AKA - which team with Darrelle Revis stood out to you. Photo by Marianne O'Leary.
The RSP Writers Poll, AKA – which team with Darrelle Revis stood out to you. Photo by Marianne O’Leary.

With the regular season coming to an end and it sounds like a good time to take a look back at the RSP Writers Project. If you’re not familiar with the project, I had the pleasure of hosting a group of football writers, former NFL players, and former NFL scouts whose job was to build a team with a salary cap and explain their personnel choices, schemes, and coaching staff. Now it’s your turn to share your thoughts about each team with one season in the books.  We’ll begin with the offensive units.

Here is the main menu for the project and all the teams. 

Today, take a look at the offenses of each team. From the standpoint of personnel and scheme, I’d like to know who you thought which team was the best in the following areas:

  • Top-performing offense this year.
  • Most promising offense long-term. 
  • Tough-luck team with good talent, but didn’t work out in 2012. 

You can also add commentary about your choices at the end of each question.

[polldaddy poll=6792405]

[polldaddy poll=6792408]

[polldaddy poll=6792415]

 

Flashes: RB Benny Cunningham, MTSU

MTSU RB Benny Cunningham has some major obstacles to earn a tryout with an NFL team this summer. If healthy and able to demonstrate the short-area quickness he flashed against Georgia Tech this fall, he could be a good fit behind Alfred Morris in the Redskins backfield. Photo by Keith Allison.
MTSU RB Benny Cunningham has some major obstacles to earn a tryout with an NFL team this summer. If healthy and able to demonstrate the short-area quickness he flashed against Georgia Tech this fall, he could be a good fit behind Alfred Morris in the Redskins backfield. Photo by Keith Allison.

This installment of Flashes profiles the play of Middle Tennessee State University runner Benny Cunningham. The senior, who was on the Doak Walker Award Watch List this summer, had a 217-yard, 5-touchdown afternoon against Georgia Tech in September. By November, he was out for the season with a torn patella tendon. what quality did he flash against the Yellow Jackets that makes Cunningham worth monitoring as a street free agent? Keep reading . . .

Cunningham is a 5-10, 210-pound, power runner who reminds me of a mix between Stephen Davis and Fred Lane. Not as big as Davis, but not as shifty as Lane. Power and pad level are the best aspects of Cunningham’s game as a runner. He attacks defenders and knows how to win the battle for extra yards.  This touchdown run against Louisiana-Monroe where he bulls over the middle linebacker at the six yard line and then bulldozes a second defender the remaining five yards is a great example.

Cunningham tore his patella tendon during his senior year, but was still named a second-team All-Sun Belt runner. He has the physical dimensions one would want to see from a running back, and his 21-carry, 217-yard, 5-touchdown performance against Georgia Tech in late September kept him on the NFL radar before his season-ending injury.

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This injury will likely make Cunningham a street free agent looking for a tryout.  Fortunately, Middle Tennessee State likes Cunningham enough that they moved its Pro Day to as late a date as possible to give its runner more time to heal before a workout.

When I watched Cunningham in this Georgia Tech game, I wanted to see evidence of short-area quickness against a bigger-name team. The Yellow Jackets would likely get penetration at the line of scrimmage that could model some of the situations he’d see against professionals. Although I didn’t see great lateral agility from Cunningham in this game, there was one play in particular where Cunningham flashed it.

The situation was a 1st-and-15 with 10:33 in the third quarter from a 2×2 receiver, pistol set.

This play is a zone run to the left, but the Tech defensive tackle and backside end get strong penetration to the backfield in addition to penetration from the left side of the offensive line to force Cunningham to change direction in the backfield.
This play is a zone run to the left, but the Tech defensive tackle and backside end get strong penetration to the backfield in addition to penetration from the left side of the offensive line to force Cunningham to change direction in the backfield.

Cunningham feels the penetration coming across the face of his backside linemen and begins his cutback with a plant of his outside leg. This first cut will get him to the edge.

Cunningham runs with his eyes on this play. You can see him looking to the backside defenders as he begins his initial cutback.
Cunningham runs with his eyes on this play. You can see him looking to the backside defenders as he begins his initial cutback.

Most college runners are good enough to make one good cut and get down hill. That’s just a basic staple of running the football. However, it’s that second cut to transition from a bounce outside back to a down hill run that will be important for Cunningham to execute at the professional level. If he can’t, he’s going to see enough attempts for three- and four-yard losses that keep him from ever seeing an NFL lineup.

Cunningham eludes the defensive end with his first cut, but not has to make a lateral cut in succession with that first move if he wants to get down field on the linebacker in great position to cut off the flat.
Cunningham eludes the defensive end with his first cut, but not has to make a lateral cut in succession with that first move if he wants to get down field on the linebacker in great position to cut off the flat.

This is the kind of direction change that runners can refine from doing drills with rope ladders and cones. It doesn’t mean every runner can get quick enough to execute moves on top of moves in the NFL, but when a player demonstrates he can do so in a game it signals that he has good feet without thinking about it. This second cut above is one of those instances. It gets Cunningham in a position where he’s now heading down hill on the outside linebacker.

The OLB heads straight into Cunningham's wheel house.
The OLB makes a beeline into Cunningham’s wheel house.

Once Cunningham gets his pads square, he does what he does best: get low, drive those muscular thighs forward and attack the defender who was in position to catch a ride on the BC Econoline rather than hit MTSU’s power back.

Two yards later, Cunningham is dragging the OLB across the line of scrimmage and picking up momentum.
Two yards later, Cunningham is dragging the OLB across the line of scrimmage and picking up momentum.

Cunningham gains four yards on this play-landing at the tip of this arrow after dragging his opponent five yards after initial contact. It’s not the flashiest run of the day. It’s not the most meaningful, either. But to someone looking for NFL-caliber skills, this play models some of the things Cunningham will have to do if he wants any chance of success at the next level.

It’s worth noting that this 2×2 pistol was the primary running formation that MSTU used to feature Cunningham. Sometimes the receivers were split, other times they were stacked. The pistol look and Cunningham’s dimensions remind me somewhat Alfred Morris and the Redskins running game. If Cunningham can return to complete health and do more than just “flash” lateral agility and short-area quickness, he could be a nice backup for Morris.

2012 RSP Sample: QB Skill Breakdown Sample

Photo by Seth Youngblood.
Check out my QB Skill Breakdown sample from the 2012 RSP. Photo by Seth Youngblood.

Whenever I provide samples of the RSP, they are links to individual reports of players. These reports are raw, play-by-play notes located in the back of the book. My readers appreciate these, but most of them get the publication for the front-of-the-book material.

One of these reports is the Skill Breadowns that I perform by position. I use the play-by-play notes and checklist scores to create the report you’ll see below. This report ranks each quarterback according to the skill sets I grade with the play-by-play checklists. The report is a tier-based analysis and helps me arrive at my overall rankings for the position.

What you’ll notice is how well Russell Wilson performed across the board in this analysis. A big reason why when Football Outsiders decided to stick an asterisk to his name when he scored off the charts in its Lewin Career Forecast that I thought it worthwhile to break him down as my first column for them.

This link will give you access: Skill Breakdown Section from 2012 Rookie Scouting Portfolio.

To see the 2012 RSP or past issues (2006-2011) you can purchase the Rookie Scouting Portfolio publications here. The 2013 RSP will be available for download at the same link on April 1, 2013. Remember, 10 percent of each sale is donated to Darkness to Light to help train communities on the prevention of sexual abuse. 

What is The RSP?

What is the RSP? What does it stand for? What do you get from it? Why is it insanely detailed, but insanely easy to read? Here’s a basic primer. There is also a Q&A that you can read that answers these questions in more detail.

I don’t like giving my money away…but one thing that is worth every dollar I spend is @MattWaldman’s Rookie Scouting Portfolio

– Eric Dickens, www.dynastyleaguefootball.com

The Rookie Scouting Portfolio is the most comprehensive publication of NFL prospect analysis at the skill positions.

Devised from best-practice methodologies, the RSP provides rankings and analysis and also shows ‘its math.’ I want to make the evaluation process as transparent as possible to the reader:

  • Everything I score, I try to define.
  • I also define my scoring system and reports so anyone could do it – if they enjoy that kind of punishment.
  • I document almost everything I see with play-by-play detail. Yes, that’s a lot of work. No, you don’t have to read that part of the book to get value from the RSP.
  • I ranking every player I grade by position. I also do a post-draft ranking and tiered cheat sheet.
  • Overrated, underrated, and long-term projects.
  • Players that have boom-bust potential, their potential appears maxed, or have great upside.
  • Player comparisons to past NFL players based on style and builds.
  • Overall rankings and comparisons in cheat sheet/table format with pertinent measurements and workout results.
  • Overall rankings with written explanations in paragraph form.

It’s a lot of stuff. But it is easy to navigate and it has become a resource that scouts and draft analysts use to cross-check their evaluations of players. Draftniks use the RSP to learn about the difficult to evaluate skill positions, and fantasy football owners swear by as a bible for their rookie drafts. Feeling an insatiable thirst for knowledge? Read the Q&A behind the RSP.

Download the 2012 RSP or purchase past issues (2006-2011)


Reads Listens Views 12/21/2012

One of the books I'm reading. I just finished "The Reader," and "Eye-Tracking the News." About to start "Don't Make Me Think."
One of the books I’m reading. I just finished “The Reader,” and “Eye-Tracking the News.” About to start “Don’t Make Me Think.”

My weekly list of links, tunes, and reads (football and otherwise), in addition to a thank you for supporting this blog and the annual Rookie Scouting Portfolio Publication. This includes a new ‘No-Huddle Series’ piece, Some serious saxophone playing, a good mock draft from Russ Lande, a piece from Sports on Earth, and Omer Avital. Check it.

Listens – Best Stop-Time Solo Ever

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Sonny Rollins, Kennedy Honors Recipient

Thank You

Things at the RSP are about to ramp up. I am already ahead of schedule with my game study and I hope that my holiday break will get me in position to have attained 75-80 percent of my player goal for the 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio. This means I’ll continue to provide in-depth, play-by-play analysis and essays about prospects on the blog – including Senior Bowl coverage both here and at the New York Times Fifth Down. 

If you haven’t read the 2012 RSP, you ought to check it out. The pre-draft and post-draft publications are a package set and the feedback this year was tremendous. I will be doing the same with the 2013 publication, making the pre-draft available for download (as always) on April 1 and the post-draft publication available one week after the NFL Draft. The option to prepay – as you’ve requested – will be available the same time as last year – more on that in January.

This promotion of my work ahead comes with a thank you to those of you who read and support the blog as well as my publication. I have fantastic readers. I wish I could spend more time corresponding with those of you who take the time to send me quality stuff on a regular basis. It is something I value even if I can’t always respond in kind with equal time and effort.

Football Reads

Non-Football Reads

Views

Lyle Lovett Tiny Desk Concert

Omer Avital In Concert

No-Huddle Series: WR Darius Johnson, SMU

June Jones says SMU's Darius Johnson is one of the best, if not the best, wide receiver he's ever coaches. Find out a little why those words should get your attention.
June Jones says SMU’s Darius Johnson is one of the best, if not the best, wide receiver he’s ever coached. Find out a little why those words should get your attention.

For more analysis of skill players like the post below, download the 2012 Rookie Scouting Portfolio. Better yet, if you’re a fantasy owner the 56-page Post-Draft Add-on comes with the 2012 RSP at no additional charge. Best, yet, 10 percent of every sale is donated to Darkness to Light to combat sexual abuse. News for the availability to prepay for the 2013 RSP and RSP Post-Draft Add-on is coming soon. 

Run and Shoot coaching disciple June Jones has coached his share of star receivers both at the college and professional level. I’ve found that his frame of reference about the position is pretty good. If he praises a player’s potential, that receiver is worth watching. Jones has coached the likes of Emmanuel Sanders and Cole Beasley in recent years.

He also had Ashley Lelie and once said that former Hawaii receiver Davone Bess reminded him of Andre Rison. If you don’t understand the nature of comparisons, read this essay so your mindset isn’t so literal about this type of analysis. Bess is a fine NFL receiver. Not a superstar, but a reliable starter with a great third-down game and potential to develop into one of the best slots weapons in the league if the Miami offense can add and develop its skill talent in the next three to five years.

So when Jones shared in a weekly press conference this season that SMU receiver Darius Johnson might be the best receiver he’s ever coached, and possibly the best athlete, that raises the old antennae.  Johnson is a 5-10, 175-pound receiver with excellent skill as a ball carrier in the open field. What stands out most about his game for me right now is his hand strength and skill to go all-out for the football.

The No-Huddle Series is not a full analysis of a player’s strengths and weaknesses. It’s just a chance to show readers why that player should be on the radar of NFL teams seeking depth with upside in the late rounds or potential street free agents with promise to develop into contributors. Johnson could become a valuable slot receiver.

A Megatron Catch From His Mini-Me

This is a first-and-10 play with 5:04 in the third quarter against Houston. Johnson is part of the trips package of a 3×1-receiver alignment from a 10-personnel pistol set. Johnson’s route is a corner route against zone. Before the play begins the Houston free safety works towards the line of scrimmage to the intermediate zone from his previous alignment deep.

Johnson is the middle receiver on the trips side and runs a corner route to the right sideline.
Johnson is the middle receiver on the trips side and runs a corner route to the right sideline.

Although the free safety works within six to seven yards of the line of scrimmage before the snap, he drops into coverage as the underneath zone defender on Johnson’s route. The cornerback outside drops into a deeper zone. SMU’s quarterback makes an ill-advised decision to target Johnson between these zones, lofting the ball up for grabs off his back foot.

It's tough enough to see Johnson, much less expect him to come down with this target.
It’s tough enough to see Johnson, much less expect him to come down with this target.

However, Johnson displays a skill set that will make some temporarily forget about the reckless decision. By the time the ball arrives within a foot of the players, the SMU receiver has timed his leap perfectly. He’s over the top of the defensive back with his hands in great position to attack the ball first.

DJohnsonA3

Johnson is first to the ball, but he’s in a position where his hands will need to be strong enough to pry the ball free from the defender from a position with gravity working against him and then control it before the defender recovers to knock it free from Johnson’s grip.

Johnson gets a great grip on the ball, and a firmer one than the defensive back.
Johnson seemingly gets a great grip on the ball, and a firmer one than the defensive back.

But to truly see how strong a grip Johnson has on the ball, it becomes even more telling how extraordinarily strong his hands are on this play when watching the position of the ball in Johnson’s hands as the receiver pulls it free from the defensive back below.

Imagine how good of a grip one has to have on the football to pull it in an upward motion when hand position is this close to the top.
Imagine how good of a grip one has to have on the football to pull it in an upward motion when hand position is this close to the top.

Not only does Johnson pull the ball free from the defender in better position, but he still has the awareness to tap both feet inside the boundary despite a second defender giving him a push in the back.

DJohnsonA6

Johnson punctuates this 21-yard gain with a great toe-tap while maintaining firm possession of the ball even as he exits the boundary.

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Darius Johnson isn’t Calvin Johnson, but this was one of the more difficult catches I’ve seen in respects both common (vertical leap-timing) and uncommon (hand strength and sideline awareness). In this contest, Johnson had two other catches where he had to make a strong adjustment to the football and in both cases he snatched the ball like he was practicing with a JUGS machine. I’m looking forward to seeing more – especially if he earns a postseason invitation to an all-star game and he faces single coverage and press corners. If he fares well, I think he might have a future as a potential dynamo in the slot. Stay tuned.

Futures: WR Marquess Wilson

Futures: WR Marquess Wilson

by Matt Waldman

This week’s Futures is about more than Marquess Wilson. It’s about the dynamics of power within college football programs and the risks that come with questioning their authority. For most of us outside the situation, it’s about being willing to reserve judgment about a player’s decisions when we may never know the truth behind them. Most of all, this week’s column addresses the mindset that I think a scout or personnel director should utilize when evaluating a football player who left his college team on bad terms.

Tall, wiry, and athletic, Wilson had a chance to go in the top half of the 2013 NFL Draft. Some analysts dinged the former Washington State receiver because they speculated that he’s too thin. If there were a physical template that scouts and draftniks used to determine the body type of a first-round talent at the position, Wilson’s 6-foot-3, 188-pound frame isn’t an exact match.

I’m not concerned if Wilson is lighter than prototypes like Andre JohnsonDemaryius Thomas, or Vincent JacksonRobert Meachemhas all the physical characteristics a football team wants from a wide receiver, but I’ve never liked his game. Meachem makes the act of catching a ball look like it requires a doctorate in quantum mechanics. And forget about routes –- I’ve seen out-of-town drivers who lost their GPS connection look less confused with their surroundings.

The way I see it, once a player meets the physical baselines to perform in the league, the rest of it is little more than a potential bonus. I say “potential” because these skills have to be harnessed into technique. Otherwise, you have a great athlete who cannot play fast, strong, or smart because he’s thinking rather than reacting.

This is why I am more concerned with positional skills. Knowledge, precision, and technical skill determine whether speed, strength, and agility will be used productively. A 5-foot-11, 188-pound receiver with great technical skill will play stronger, faster, and smarter than a 6-foot-2, 215-pound prospect without it. In other words, put Meachem’s game side-by-side with Marvin Harrison’s and it’s no contest.

Wilson demonstrates enough physical skill to develop into an NFL starter. He’s effective at shielding defenders with his body. He catches the football with his hands. Wilson has the height to win on the perimeter and in the red zone, yet the slippery power and arsenal of moves to avoid direct hits as a ball carrier through the shallow zones of a defense. The Cougars loved to feature his combination of skill sets on fades, smoke screens, slants, and vertical routes with double moves.

Wilson can set up a route in single-coverage and he flashes some promise working against the jam, but he has a ways to go. He has to develop better technique with his hands and shoulders to defeat press coverage while still moving down field. Otherwise, his tendency to lean away from contact slows his release from the line of scrimmage and it can ruin the timing of his routes.

Wilson is not a prospect with rare ability. However, he has enough NFL characteristics in his game that, with enough development, he could become an asset in a starting lineup. Several draft analysts believed he was one of the top-five receiving prospects at the beginning of the season. Until last month, I believed Wilson had a chance to be a second- or third-round pick.

I’m giving you the executive summary on Wilson’s game because the more fascinating question about the former Washington State receiver is the fallout from his imbroglio with head coach Mike Leach. There are dynamics of this story that parallel past incidents where a player and football program didn’t see eye-to-eye and NFL teams made a mistake to trust the program.

Sometimes the consequences for the player are deserved. Read the rest at Football Outsiders