Posts tagged Matt Waldman RSP

Speculating in a Minefield: Race and Quarterbacking

Newton has the ideal personnel for play action passing, but as Lance Zierlein said weeks ago when we talked "On the Couch" with Sigmund Bloom, the zone read offense hinders use of it. it's one of the reasons I wonder if this approach might be hurting the long-term development of quarterbacks. Photo by PDA.Photo
Newton has the ideal personnel for play action passing, but as Lance Zierlein said weeks ago when we talked “On the Couch” with Sigmund Bloom, the zone read offense hinders use of it. it’s one of the reasons I wonder if this approach might be hurting the long-term development of quarterbacks. Photo by PDA.Photo

Recently, ESPN’s Matt Williamson and I were on Sigmund Bloom’s “On the Couch” podcast and Bloom broached the topic of Cam Newton. Williamson went first and talked about why he believes in Cam Newton’s talent. One of the things Williamson mentioned was that if Newton, and eventually Robert Griffin, are to develop into winning NFL quarterback they will need to transition into pure pocket passers that can sometimes run.

I couldn’t agree more. Until this conversation that ensued On the Couch I’ve been having an internal debate about publishing this post. Then when David Whitley wrote his column about Colin Kaepernick, the quarterback’s tattoos and the nature of some of the criticism from readers, I decided it would be a good idea to post this piece. 

Context

The white hoods and the Jim Crow era signs may be a relic in our country, but racism still exists. To be clear, I’m not talking about hate-speech, cross burning, and criminal violence.  It’s true that this in-your-face, brand of intolerance and rage still exists in the dark corners of every community of our country. That’s not what this is about.

Racism is not always about hate. But it is always rooted in ignorance – even when the intentions are noble. Without a well-spring of knowledge to nourish those good intentions, ignorance can take root.

A writer whom I admire recently finished a story that featured a mentoring experience between an executive and a young man. The businessman went above and beyond to assist this young man. He saw shades of his youth in his men-tee. The executive is white. The young man is black.

When the writer finished his draft of the story, he described the young man as a “smart, motivated, and hopeful young black man.”

I know this writer’s work and I’ve met him numerous times and there’s no question in my mind that his description of the young man was well-intentioned. It’s also a case where I believe this writer’s age and experiences influenced his decision to include the young man’s race in the sentence. I know that he wanted to underscore the point to his audience that this young black man is an example of many other black men in the world with the same positive characteristics.

This isn’t cross-burning, white-hooded, racism, but it is a subtler strain steeped in well-intentioned ignorance. Injecting race into a story when the context doesn’t call for it has an unintentional consequence. Describing a subject of a story as a “smart, motivated, and hopeful black man,” infers that there’s something about this combination of characteristics in a human being that is unusual rather than the norm.

If the subject of this story was the evolution of human rights in our country then it might make sense to point out an individual’s race in the context of the story. However, using it when the story has nothing to do with race infers that people of color don’t normally have the same capacity of intelligence, work ethic, and optimism as white people. I’ve been guilty of doing this in conversation before. I would have have been angered if someone accused me of racism for doing so.

That’s part of the delicate nature of the topic of race in our country. The word “racism” is loaded with a history of violent imagery. When a well-intentioned human being in our country is told he or she is ignorant about a matter of race, it’s a common reaction to react as if they were accused of being complicit in crimes against humanity. It’s what makes the topic of race in this country a confusing and emotionally-charged minefield.

It should be.

Slavery was physical, emotional, and spiritual abuse of the worst kind. What people don’t think about is that the actions damaged both the abuser and the abused. And like any radioactive material, the fallout takes much longer to leave our nation’s psyche than the system that was dismantled decades ago.

However, the next time you hear someone comment, ‘slavery is over,’ it would be wise to consider that the fiscal and personal toll from the system’s infrastructure is still rippling through our nation on several levels even if the actual enslavement is gone. It doesn’t mean that you should feel guilty for something that you didn’t do. However, it will help our country come together on this issue if we all learn how to avoid perpetuating ideas – subtle or otherwise – that haven’t changed enough.

There are still bastions of football writing that continue to perpetuate these well-intentioned, but ignorant ideas.

The truth is that there are individuals of every race and gender that have special physical, mental, and emotional characteristics in abundance. Genetics may play a role in exceptional achievements – both positive and negative – but that’s also not exclusive of race. The way that our society reacts to skin color often has external influences on individuals and how they use these qualities.

This well-intentioned mindset can have the unintended consequence of harming those they wish to help. It sends the message that, even when the starting points and resources are relatively equal, that people of color need the help of white people to achieve the same things. This mindset can be just as limiting long-term as the more virulent strains of examples of racism because it subtly ingrains stereotypes.

It still happens in football writing.

I don’t see David Whitley’s piece about Colin Kaepernick as racist. The Sporting News writer’s column is about image and leadership, specifically tattoos and what they state about the image and perception of leadership. As I mentioned yesterday, I disagree with Whitley’s perspective. Quarterbacks should not be regarded as CEOs. It’s an inaccurate analogy. Quarterbacks don’t hire and fire. They don’t make financial decisions for the team. They aren’t the first, second, or even third voice that is important for an NFL organization. If Whitley was going to make a more accurate, but still misguided, business analogy he should have considered the position of quarterback as a middle manager.

In my view, all quarterbacks are military leaders-tribal warriors more than they are businessmen. See below. Photo of Colin Kaepernick by Jason Ku Photography.
CEO or tribal-military warrior? Photo of Colin Kaepernick by Jason Ku Photography.

Taking a quick tangent, the reason I think Whitley is off base with his quarterback-as-CEO argument is that a football field is not a corporate office or boardroom; it’s more like a battleground. Football teams are more like tribes or military units. Because of the physical commitment involved with playing the game that can lead to permanent, long-term disability, or even loss of life, quarterbacks are more like warrior-leaders.

I don’t know about you, but I want a man willing to permanently mark his skin with ink to swear allegiance to his beliefs. That’s the kind of person who is willing to sacrifice his body for what he believes in. There’s no lasting sacrifice demonstrated with a haircut and an Armani suit.

But back to Whitley’s mistake that invited speculation of racism. I believe it occurred when he wrote: It’s not just a white thing, I hope.

He didn’t need to inject race into the equation. It was his decision, and that of his editor to leave it there, which made race an issue in a piece that’s only true position is to rail against tattoos for quarterbacks.

Whitley’s context of race was well-meaning, but inappropriate. When looking at the context of how the NFL openly questioned the intellectual capabilities of black athletes, it made sense to discuss Doug Williams’ blackness when he helped the Redskins win the Super Bowl. It was a historical moment.

Yet, to say that Robert Griffin is an intelligent, articulate, hard-working, black man in a story about him is unnecessary if the context isn’t about the role of race and athletics in American society. Ask yourself this question: when would it be necessary to describe Andrew Luck as a passionate, athletic, and tough as nails, white man in a sports story? Moreover, is Andrew Luck ever described as a “white man” in the average sports story?

The use of “black” as a descriptor is something I hear friends and colleagues use in situations that aren’t necessary. If I were at a future Redskins-Colts football game with my daughter and Luck and Griffin were both in grey sweats having a conversation at the 50 yard-line, I’ll point and say, “The black dude,” if she asks me,  “Which quarterback is Griffin?” If I’m describing the skill of a player, or the personality of an individual’s “blackness” or “whiteness,” then color rarely needs to be a part of the equation.

If it does, ask yourself why its so important that you include race in the context of what you’re telling. Does it need to be for you, or your audience?

The unintentional dark comedy of this entire uproar from writers and bloggers who I’ve seen brand this piece as racist is that the most vocal ones I saw online where white men. It’s usually white men who are quick to correct my wife that she is not black, but ‘African-American.’ Well-intended, but incredibly ignorant.  Most black people in this country have an ancestry of people that hailed from a variety of nations and races. While some people will say that the term was coined by black people (I’ve seen some cite Jesse Jackson) it was white people in America who began using this term as early as the 1850s.

It never occurred to these white male writers that the writer is the father to two black girls, or that the editor is black. It’s not to say that black people are incapable of being racist (If you were one of those white people railing against Whitley don’t be offended that I’m poking fun at you – some of you meant well), but it is sad and funny to me that two writers who should understand the nuance of the issue of race in this country failed to successfully navigate the racial minefield. Of course some may even say they willfully tripped the wires to get attention.

This public service announcement about the state of race in the United States is a necessary prelude to the range of thoughts I am sharing below about Cam Newton, Robert Griffin, and any other quarterback with the incredible physical gifts to thread the needle with his arms and gain huge chunks of yards with his legs. I want my future analysis to be an honest examination of the idea that certain black quarterbacks could see their long-term development stunted because of coaches willing to take a slower transition with a college-based offense or an offense where running is highly encouraged.

Kordell Stewart, Michael Vick, Vince Young, Cam Newton, and Robert Griffin may have looked like superstars in these offenses early in their careers, but in the case of Stewart, Vick, and Young, they didn’t make the transition into pocket passers the way that Donovan McNabb and Steve McNair did and they may ultimately struggled. I fear Newton and Griffin could find themselves along the same road where the team had great intentions, but they didn’t force their quarterbacks to take the harder, but more fulfilling development path.

However, I see evidence where ignorance may take root in terms of the responses I’ll receive. It’s why I think it is important to map the minefield before I take you through it. I want to say upfront that I have no definitive answers. I don’t know if I’m right. My concerns might be unwarranted, but I do see a link between these progressive ideas in football and how they could mimic the progressive or liberal ideas that some in our country have with race. Both have good intentions, but sometimes do more harm than good.  I want to be able to say them while providing enough context that hopefully most people will understand that this is a delicate and nuanced issue and I’m sharing my thoughts, but not making hard conclusions.

Navigating the Minefield

What I fear is that the Redskins and Panthers’ offenses systems, which have been retrofitted to ease the short-term transition of Robert Griffin and Cam Newton, may actually do a disservice to the long-term development of these fantastic quarterback talents. I believe the validity of my concerns will ultimately hinge on how effective these spread offensive concepts taken from the college game will chip away at the validity of the old truism “a successful NFL quarterback must win from the pocket.”

Why race becomes part of the issue is tricky.

The Panthers and Redskins seem more willing to use college option concepts with Newton and Griffin than the 49ers and Broncos were with Alex Smith and Tim Tebow. Both Smith and Tebow were spread option stars at the college level. The 49ers set about grooming Smith to become a pocket passer. Tebow was merely an option of desperation that John Elway tossed aside as soon as the Broncos season ended. If he couldn’t land Peyton Manning, the consummate pocket quarterback, I have no doubts that Elway would have moved heaven and earth to acquire one in the draft with more refined skill than rookie Brock Osweiler.

Alex Smith was a successful college runner-passer in a spread system. Why did the 49ers opt to force him into developing pocket passer? I have no clear answer, but it is food for thought. Photo by  Jason Ku Photography.
Alex Smith was a successful college runner-passer in a spread system. Why did the 49ers opt to force him into developing pocket passer? I hope I’m wrong, but it is food for thought that race was a subconscious factor into the decision-making equation with Newton and Griffin. Photo by Jason Ku Photography.

Tebow’s lack of developed arm talent is an easy reason to explain why no team is willing to invest in him as a starter in an option-based system like Newton and Griffin. Smith is a different story. Gil Brandt reported from Smith’s pre-draft workout that he hadn’t seen as impressive of a performance since Troy Aikman. Remember that Smith was also a dangerous runner at Utah.

It doesn’t take a scout to see the difference between Smith’s size and speed in comparison to Newton and Griffin. However, the 49ers have picked its spots to use Smith’s prowess as a runner. At 6’4″ and an athletic, 217 pounds, Smith was as successful running a spread option as a ball carrier as Newton and Griffin. I doubt he has the athleticism to gain the yardage in chunks that Newton and Griffin have, but I don’t think the overall effectiveness within the scope of a pro offense fitted for Smith to run would have yielded dramatically different results. Here is each player’s rushing stats during their final college season.

Player Att Yds TD
Smith 135 631 10
Griffin 161 699 10
Newton 264 1473 20

From the standpoint of yards per carry and touchdowns per attempt, there’s not a significant difference. This could just have to do with individual preference and willingness of coaches, but I do wonder that, when it comes to teams opting to employ an offense with the quarterback as part-runner and part-passer, if race was a subconscious factor to take that risk.

My fear is that teams are opting to exploit Griffin’s and Newton’s athletic talents now at the cost of their vast potential to develop into true pocket passers later. It’s not an intentional exploitation based on race, but if a player like Newton begins to falter, then the commentary then leads to similar type of grilling that Vince Young or Kordell Stewart earned. The fact that some fans drew parallels between Newton and Vince Young was unfair to Newton and I think some of it had to do with race.

The motivation of these teams  is to maximize Newton and Griffin’s talents to win now. That is admirable and in some ways progressive thinking. But unless the teams find the right combination of quarterback and offense, these players’ lack of pocket development and reading the entire field could set them back in terms of traditional skills.

This view could find its way to the historic dustbin faster than Griffin can cover 30 yards in the open field. The reason is that they may change NFL quarterbacking with their athleticism. But until they do so over a period of years, I won’t believe it.

It has been a truism for decades that in the NFL the quarterback must be able to win from the pocket. Steve Young, Randall Cunningham, Donovan McNabb, Steve McNair, and to some extent Ben Roethlisberger, all had to learn to play better from the pocket to elevate their game.

Now coaches are injecting spread principles into the NFL game, including the zone-read options. This may accelerate statistical production and big-play development, but we haven’t seen lasting proof that the offenses are leading to victories or long-term development of the quarterbacks at the wheel. I want to see Robert Griffin and Cam Newton win and win big. I want them to develop into great quarterbacks.

Perhaps they will never need to lean solely on these pocket skills and they will indeed change the NFL game. If so, that’s terrific. However, I’m skeptical because I believe the hits will take a toll with age. If they are part running back, think about the life expectancy of a runner’s career versus a quarterback’s and you have to begin subtracting years.

Of course there’s no guarantee either Newton or Griffin will develop into a great pocket passer any more than Alex Smith, Sam Bradford, or anything other big-time white quarterback entering the league. Call me old-school, but I’d like to see these teams try. Let Newton and Griffin take their lumps from defenses, coaches, fans, and media as they work on the tried-and-true skills of quarterbacking. I think it’s better to do so earlier where hitting a wall is expected than to give them early success and become the equivalent of many child stars in Hollywood.

If they can do so in this style of offense long-term then great, but I don’t see it working in Carolina. This could have more to do with Carolina specifically, but I want to entertain the idea that it may not. I think how Griffin, Newton, Kapernick, and their teams fare could make my point worth examining.

Right now it’s just speculation in a minefield.

Reads Listens Views 11/30/2012

Are you a dynasty league owner, or are you looking for a surprise producer at the end of the season in a deep re-draft league? Marvin Jones might be your guy. See below. Photo by John Martinez Pavliga

Thanks

I have great readers. People who send me holiday cards, books, and YouTube videos because they just enjoy the back-and-forth. While I’m not always able to respond in kind or with as much regularity as I’d like, I still want to thank all of you who frequent this blog, email me, and/or purchase the Rookie Scouting Portfolio publication. Two years ago I wondered if the RSP would have a long-term future. I’m far more optimistic than I’ve ever been due to the response to this blog and the 2012 publication. I hope all of you reading this have a good holiday season filled with gifts that come from being around people that you enjoy.

If you’re new to the RSP blog, here’s a series I wrote comparing Bengals receiver Marvin Jones and Jets receiver Stephen Hill.

Listens

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This is one of the most sonically flexible small groups you will ever hear. Think Peyton Manning at the line of scrimmage with a Reggie Wayne, Marvin Harrison, Dallas Clark, Austin Collie, and Edgerrin James all in their prime.

Football and Fantasy Football Reads

  • 49ers QB Colin Kaepernick’s parents can’t believe criticism over their son’s arm tattoos USA Today writer Robert Klemko interviews Kaepernick’s parents after a writer disparaged the quarterback’s tattoos. Personally, I’ll never get a tattoo. I don’t believe in marking my body with ink. However, invoking the quarterback-as-CEO argument against Kaepernick is an out-dated idea. Please look around at our CEOs, congressional representatives, and leaders in academia. They wear the right clothes, have the right hair cut, and project and image of reliability. True, projecting an image is an action and looking like a banker-robot is safe. But athletes aren’t bankers. Unlike bankers, athletes are supposed to take risks. They are supposed to be passionate. They are supposed to deal with tremendous adversity. I don’t want to banker running my offense. I want someone with conviction. To stick with bankers and their politician employees. . . for that matter, everyone. Isn’t it time we apply Ghandi’s Seven Sins to what we think we see in them?
    • Wealth without Work
    • Pleasure without Conscience
    • Science without Humanity
    • Knowledge without Character
    • Politics without Principle
    • Commerce without Morality
    • Worship without Sacrifice
  • A Former Player’s Perspective on the Rookie Wall Ryan Riddle offers another fantastic take on a the behind the scenes realities of the NFL.
  • Zach Law’s Interview of Mike MacGregor at Fantasy Throwdown If there were an underrated fantasy football resource in the industry, MacGregor is that guy. I wouldn’t be doing this today if it weren’t for him.

Non-Football Reads

Views

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I’ll be talking about Wheaton soon. Those of you draft analysts on Twitter who predicted I’d like Wheaton were correct.

The Hard Life of an NFL Longshot

Chad Spann was a teammate of Falcons LB Pat Schiller at Northern Illinois. Schiller is featured in the New York Times Magazine this weekend and he provides a glimpse into his rookie training camp and preseason. Photo by Icon Sports Media, Inc.

If you haven’t read Charles Siebert’s feature on his nephew, Atlanta Falcons middle linebacker Pat Schiller you need to take 30 minutes to do so. Schiller was an undrafted free agent signed by an NFL team. This is a strong, interactive feature that also features video segments of Schiller talking about his experiences and playing the game.

If you find that you want to learn more about this perspective, I had the pleasure of interviewing Chad Spann, Schiller’s former teammate at Northern Illinois who bested Cam Newton as the touchdown leader during his senior year, and was an undrafted free agent signed by the Colts before having stints on the Buccaneers and Steelers practice squads. You can find more about Spann here.

Futures: FSU CB Xavier Rhodes

Last week’s Future’s profiled NC State CB David Amerson. This week, find out why I believe FSU CB Xavier Rhodes is a better prospect. Photo by D. Wilkinson.

Last week I wrote about NC State corner David Amerson, who owns the record for interceptions in a season. I spent much of the piece contrasting Amerson’s style of play with Florida State’s Xavier Rhodes and Alabama’s Dee Milliner, two corners considered to be in the same tier to begin the year. After examining Amerson’s game, I think he has a chance to become a starting corner for a team that doesn’t need him to play press. Otherwise, free safety might be in his future.  Either way, I no longer think he’s in the same tier as Rhodes and Milliner.

Rhodes is a promising player because he plays smaller than his size and it’s the one of the few instances where this characterization is a compliment. At 6’1, 217 lbs., Rhodes is an inch taller and two pounds lighter than former LSU star and Cardinals rising stud, Patrick Peterson.

Some have compared Rhodes to Peterson because of the similar physical dimensions, Rhodes’ speed and quickness, and the junior’s physical play. I see the basis for the stylistic comparison, but Peterson is a better tackler. When a corner can stone Julio Jones or make it tough on Trent Richardson one –on-one at the goal line a player like Peterson is in a different class.

What I have seen from Rhodes is the skill to develop into an excellent press corner in addition to a player who also demonstrates skill with trail, off man, and zone coverage. Mlliner is a better player at this stage of the trio’s careers, but Rhodes’ chances of developing into a special cornerback is the highest of the three. Read the rest at FootballOutsider’s.com

Reads Listens Views 11/21/12

Happy Thanksgiving. Photo Provided by Animal Farm Foundation.

Listens – Some soulful, Thanksgiving blues from a Frenchman who could swing his tail off. Great, great, musician. Press ‘play’ and read on.

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EhjZABvC6Ng&feature=share&list=PLX1Nx57UJgZm7HaE2YBix5GrxSujNhhzq]

About ‘Reads Listens Views’

Thanks to folks like my buddy Josh Norris at Rotoworld, Joe Goodberry, and Eric Stoner, I have new readers. If you’re one of them, I hope you enjoy what you’re reading at the RSP blog. Every Friday, I like to share my finds that are football and non-football. While I don’t get a ton of views of the non-football content, those that take the time to look express their appreciation. I also believe it is the non-football content that helps me look at the football world with a perspective that is worth sharing. This week, I’m posting this feature early to wish you all a Happy Thanksgiving.

Introduce Fantasy Football to Your Family With Fantasy Throwdown

Play me or your friends in free games of one-on-one fantasy football.

If you’re traveling for Thanksgiving and you want to introduce fantasy football to your family, there’s no easier way to do so than to play Fantasy Throwdown. Free to play and easy to learn, drafts take 15 minutes and what a fantastic way to enjoy the games with your family and help them see why fantasy football is so much fun.

Football Reads

 Non-Football Reads

  • Kurt Vonnegut Describing His Daily Routine – What I love about Vonnegut’s writing is his voice. He’s a wicked-smart friend who pulls you up to his level.
  • How Partisans Fool Themselves Into Believing Their Own Spin  – Until we take the best of both sides of an argument the machine’s gears stay stuck.
  • 45-Minute Roasted Turkey – I’ve cooked turkey all sorts of ways. For years I’ve deep-fried it in the backyard. Two years ago, I did a confit. Recently I tried this recipe. If you’re not worried about a Norman Rockwell-Hallmark moment at the dinner table, then this is the quickest and best way to do the bird.

Views – A letter from Fiona Apple about her best friend

Family and blood aren’t always synonymous. Photo by RussTeaches.

If I heard a Fiona Apple song I wouldn’t know it even though I’ve known he she was for years. Recently, Apple cancelled a tour of South America to be there for her best friend who is terminally ill. Whether the reasons are biological, biblical, or the sake that they grew up with a lot of people in their lives, there people in my life whom I love and respect who don’t understand the friendship that can exist between a human and an animal I understand the point that we shouldn’t treat animals like humans because we’re not respecting the animal’s nature.

I don’t believe in treating pets in such a way that it can endanger the physical or emotional welfare of human members of a family. But until there’s enough prove to disavow any possibility that a bond between a human being and many animals can exist and it’s not solely based on food, shelter, and comfort, then I’m choosing to believe what I see.

Below is the typed version of a hand-written letter from Apple to her fans to explain the bond she has with her dog Janet. If you’re a pet-person or you became one because you’re more of a solitary traveler through life, which many people of Apple’s skill-set are, then you’ll get what she’s saying.

I’m not a believer that family and blood are always synonymous. Loyalty and respect are earned. I hope on this Thanksgiving Day that you can appreciate and respect the family you have around you. If not, I hope you make choices moving forward to build your family, because, at least from this side of the monitor, I believe that’s how it’s done.

(Apple’s letter)

It’s 6pm on Friday,and I’m writing to a few thousand friends I have not met yet. I am writing to ask them to change our plans and meet a little while later. Here’s the thing. I have a dog Janet, and she’s been ill for almost two years now, as a tumor has been idling in her chest, growing ever so slowly. She’s almost 14 years old now.I got her when she was 4 months old. I was 21 then ,an adult officially – and she was my child. She is a pitbull, and was found in Echo Park, with a rope around her neck, and bites all over her ears and face. She was the one the dogfighters use to puff up the confidence of the contenders. She’s almost 14 and I’ve never seen her start a fight , or bite, or even growl, so I can understand why they chose her for that awful role. She’s a pacifist.

Janet has been the most consistent relationship of my adult life, and that is just a fact. We’ve lived in numerous houses, and jumped a few make shift families, but it’s always really been the two of us. She slept in bed with me, her head on the pillow, and she accepted my hysterical, tearful face into her chest, with her paws around me, every time I was heartbroken, or spirit-broken, or just lost, and as years went by, she let me take the role of her child, as I fell asleep, with her chin resting above my head. She was under the piano when I wrote songs, barked any time I tried to record anything, and she was in the studio with me all the time we recorded the last album. The last time I came back from tour, she was spry as ever, and she’s used to me being gone for a few weeks every 6 or 7 years.

She has Addison’s Disease, which makes it dangerous for her to travel since she needs regular injections of Cortisol, because she reacts to stress and to excitement without the physiological tools which keep most of us from literally panicking to death. Despite all of this, she’s effortlessly joyful and playful, and only stopped acting like a puppy about 3 years ago. She’s my best friend and my mother and my daughter, my benefactor, and she’s the one who taught me what love is. I can’t come to South America. Not now. When I got back from the last leg of the US tour, there was a big, big difference. She doesn’t even want to go for walks anymore. I know that she’s not sad about aging or dying. Animals have a survival instinct, but a sense of mortality and vanity, they do not. That’s why they are so much more present than people. But I know that she is coming close to point where she will stop being a dog, and instead, be part of everything. She’ll be in the wind, and in the soil, and the snow, and in me, wherever I go.

I just can’t leave her now, please understand. If I go away again, I’m afraid she’ll die and I won’t have the honor of singing her to sleep, of escorting her out. Sometimes it takes me 20 minutes to pick which socks to wear to bed. But this decision is instant. These are the choices we make, which define us. I will not be the woman who puts her career ahead of love and friendship. I am the woman who stays home and bakes Tilapia for my dearest, oldest friend. And helps her be comfortable, and comforted, and safe, and important. Many of us these days, we dread the death of a loved one. It is the ugly truth of Life, that keeps us feeling terrified and alone. I wish we could also appreciate the time that lies right beside the end of time. I know that I will feel the most overwhelming knowledge of her, and of her life and of my love for her, in the last moments. I need to do my damnedest to be there for that. Because it will be the most beautiful, the most intense, the most enriching experience of life I’ve ever known. When she dies. So I am staying home, and I am listening to her snore and wheeze, and reveling in the swampiest, most awful breath that ever emanated from an angel. And I am asking for your blessing. I’ll be seeing you.

Love,
Fiona

Flashes: Oregon RB Kenjon Barner

Oregon running back Kenjon Barner showing power on a short-yardage play is the debut of ‘Flashes,” a series devoted to players giving brief exhibits of a skills not usually attributed to them.

Study football players long enough and it becomes clear that we all make assumptions about what they can and cannot do. We base these conclusions on what we think we know about a player’s size, speed, and strength. The truth is that we often underestimate the importance of technique, awareness, and fit with a specific scheme and surrounding talent.

Finding evidence that challenges these assumptions can lead to discovering players who are exceptions to the rule, underrated, or under the radar. This series will be devoted to a single play of a player that illustrates an aspect of his game that is not usually attributed as a strength or weakness.

When I find these plays, I make a note to search for additional plays like them. The goal is to validate or dispel the natural assumptions we all have about prospects. Sometimes I’m unable to do either, but these flashes from a player can help me see how much potential for improvement in a specific area exists. This is equally important, because few players enter the league finished products.

Miami Dolphins running back Lamar Miller is a good example of a player that the general public didn’t think of as a good receiver, but I saw him flash these skills down the road at the University of Miami. Apparently, the Dolphins coaching staff saw the same thing. I have to believe there were other scouts and Internet talent guys who saw it, but according to my colleague Sigmund Bloom I was the only one he saw mention this aspect of Miller’s game.

Kenjon Barner

The Oregon runner’s 321-yard, 5-touchdown performance against USC earlier this month put him on the national radar. Barner is listed as a 5-11, 192-pound running back and it is assumed that he will not be able to add another 10-20 pounds to become a feature back or lead back in a pro-style running game. I may not be at the point where I can win a “guess the height and weight” contest at the local fair, but Barner doesn’t look as big as me and I’m roughly those dimensions.

Another assumption is that Barner can’t break tackles. I’ll readily admit that when I first saw Barner and the Oregon offense, I assumed the same. However, the reason I look at defined criteria is to focus on what a player illustrates and not what I might believe before I see him. The defined process helps me maintain an open mind.

Here’s a third-and-1 play from the California 5 with 2:07 in the first quarter where Barner has forced me to at least keep an open mind about his ability to break tackles. Until I see enough evidence to validate or dispel the notion this two-yard gain did enough delay judgment for me.

This is a wind-back play run from a pistol set. The New Orleans Saints loved running this play with Pierre Thomas behind Heath Evans a couple of years ago, but from a traditional offset I-formation set.

A wind-back play is a misdirection run where the offensive line slants in one direction to get the defensive flowing to the opposite side of the eventual path of the runner. The key is the halfback helping to sell the misdirection by pressing to the linemen’s slant and then cutting back to follow the fullback crossing the formation to the backside to open a crease inside his block.

Barner slants with the offensive line as he takes the exchange from the quarterback as the fullback begins his wind back to the backside of the formation. The Ducks hope they can get the linebacker and safety to flow inside just enough for the running back to earn a clean hole for positive yards. Thus far, the safety is staring into the backfield and doesn’t seem poised to follow the tight end to the flat. The linebacker has taken a step inside, but he hasn’t bitten hard on the initial flow of the line. Oregon has run this play at least twice during this quarter and Cal’s defense seems to be catching on .

As Barner begins his bend to the backside it’s not the linebacker and safety that he has to worry about. The edge defender gets good penetration and meets the fullback at the line of scrimmage and spins off the lead blocker’s hit at the same time the front side linebacker gets easy access to the backfield through a lane inside left tackle. We know that Barner has the footwork and speed to avoid tackles, but in a tight area of a short-yardage play can he combine those skills with the pad level and strength to break tackles?

Earlier in this game, I watched Barner get knocked backwards on a wind-back play because as he hit the small backside crease he tried to beat the linebacker through the hole by turning his pads outside rather than lowering his pads through the defender.  Barner wasn’t fast enough to beat this defender’s angle – no back would have been – and the linebacker hit Barner under the runner’s pads. The defender forced Barner backwards for a three-yard gain that was as questionable as his height and weight.

On this wind-back play, Barner flashes the technique that he’ll need to show more often if he wants to succeed between the tackles in the NFL.  What you don’t see between the last still photo and the next one below is that he squares his pads and hips down hill. This puts him in position to attack the defense or, at least in the case of a smaller runner, minimize his surface area for defenders to hit and increase his chances to squirt through contact.

Barner’s pad level is good enough that when he encounters the safety head-on, his body is in a balanced position to handle the contact. If you look close enough at the still photo below (yes, I know it looks more like a poor attempt at a Leroy Neiman, but I do all this myself), the safety doesn’t have a square hit on Barner. The contact is to the runner’s right side, which gives Barner a shot to bounce off the hit to the inside. If Barner’s pads weren’t square he would have been hit at an angle to the chest that likely knocks the runner sideways.

The hit from the safety knocks Barner sideways, but not the away from the line of scrimmage. The pad level and down-hill angle are the difference between the outcome of the run I described earlier, and this play where Barner earns the first down. Barner isn’t going to be a tackle-breaking stud in the NFL, but the right technique and understanding of angles can give a player of his size slippery power.

Barner maintains his balance and gets his pads down hill in the next frame. His initial angle helps him take the hit and work past the line of scrimmage. Barner has already won because even if No.40 wraps him from behind, there’s little chance the Oregon runner doesn’t fall forward for the first down.

Let’s make it official . . .

First down.

It’s not so much Barner’s strength as it is his footwork, pad level, and pad orientation that helps him bounce off two hits at the line of scrimmage, keep his legs moving, and fall forward for the first down on what could have easily been a no-gainer. Barner will need to demonstrate this skill enough to earn consideration as a back capable of a lead role and not just a change of pace in a committee.

He’ll also need to demonstrate that after a physical run he isn’t forced to the sideline. This hand injury forced Barner to the locker room for a couple of series. It could have happened to any runner. It also can generate perceptions that limit a player’s opportunity for a bigger role until he proves this was not a frequent issue.

For more analysis of skill players entering the NFL, download the 2012 Rookie Scouting PortfolioBetter yet, if you’re a fantasy owner the 56-page Post-Draft Add-on comes with the 2012 RSP at no additional charge. Best, yet, 10 percent of every sale is donated to Darkness to Light to combat sexual abuse. The 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio will be available for download here on April 1, 2013. 

 

The Progression of Doug Martin

RSP contributor and former college assistant Nick Whalen submitted this analysis of Doug Martin’s progression as an NFL runner just hours before his explosive performance against the Oakland Raiders. Great timing.

By Nick Whalen

Editor’s Note: Whalen submitted this piece Sunday morning prior to Martin’s 251-yard, 4-touchdown rout of the Raiders defense.  Martin did not leave big-play opportunities on the field.

Due to the injury concerns, most high profile RB’s come into the NFL as underclassmen. So despite being a senior, Doug Martin was a running back prospect I was very high on last winter.  Martin has a physical tools and a complete game: thick build, quick, agile, powerful, good vision, and solid hands.

Because Tampa Bay selected him in the first round and head coach Greg Schiano was the coach responsible for recruiting Ray Rice at Rutgers a back with similar skills, expectations were high for Martin entering the 2012 NFL season .  I decided to watch every touch of Martin’s NFL career to see how he’s doing.  Granted, hindsight is 20/20 and no player always makes perfect decisions. The intent of this article is to first show where and why he was struggling and then how he has progressed into a successful NFL RB.

Martin’s Initial Learning Curve

The first four games in Martin’s NFL career were somewhat of a disappointment and some raised concerns about him.  After 79 touches, he had only on touchdown and averaged only 3.5 yards per carry.  None of the four defenses he faced were in the top 10 for rushing yardage allowed or rushing yards per attempt.

Martin averaged over 4.4 yards per carry during all four seasons of his college career at Boise State, which made his low yards-per-carry statistic a peculiar situation. If I could provide one consistent criticism it would be patience. As Browns offensive coordinator Brad Childress stated about fellow rookie runner Trent Richardson entering the Ravens game, many young runners are in a hurry when carrying the football and fail to let plays develop because they are trying to hard to make something happen when they actually can do more by doing less.

Here are multiple plays of Martin where he doesn’t illustrate enough patience and leaves hidden yardage on the field.

Second-and-10 at the 12 yard line vs. Dallas

Dallas jumps offside, which makes this a free play for Tampa Bay.  The offense runs a power play with the left guard pulling to block the Cowboys’ inside linebacker.  Martin gains 7 yards by hitting this play inside.  However, Martin misses this cutback (in black) because he finds a crease inside (in blue) and hits that before allowing the play to develop.

This end zone angle from a couple of frames earlier during the play reveals much more to Martin’s decision-making flaw.  No.62 is losing his leverage to the inside and the safety (in yellow) is unaccounted for and flowing free from the right side.  Yet on the backside of the play, Martin has two receivers in position to help him get into the end zone. The general rule for running backs is to read the helmets of the linemen and flow to the shoulder opposite the defender’s helmet. If Martin is reading the helmet of the defender he makes the cutback towards the receivers to No.62’s outside shoulder. Of course, this is a quick play and even the best runners miss these opportunities. At this stage of the rookie’s learning curve, Martin was missing this a little too often.

Several frames later, No.62 gets beat inside and that safety closes down the running lane.  It forces Martin to lower his head and use his power to gain yardage.  Looking backside once again, the cutback lane is there and the two receivers are blocking the only second-level defenders in the area.  The end result is a seven-yard gain, but with a little more patience from Martin he has a walk-in touchdown.

Second-and-5 from the 7 yard line vs. Dallas.

This is the very next play for Tampa Bay and Martin makes an immediate cutback after the exchange with the quarterback.  He rushes the cutback (in blue) and the defenders react immediately.  The defender in the yellow circle is meeting the blocker based on Martin’s cut.  If Martin would have pressed the hole (in black), the cutback would’ve been less dramatic and he could get downhill faster.

The defender that read the cutback (in yellow) has now defeated his block and approaches Martin.  The alley player (in orange) has now squeezed the once promising cutback lane, which forces a minimal gain for the runner.  This angle further demonstrates if Martin would have pressed the hole towards the area in black before attempting the cutback to the red area it would led to a run with only the safety between him and the end zone.  Martin earns four yards, but as you’re beginning to see, four- and seven-yard carries may move the chains but the expectation for these well-blocked plays was much more. Martin left potential touchdowns on the field.

Red Zone

The very next play, Martin gets the ball near the goal line and cuts too quickly into the hole.

The ideal scenario would be Martin pressing a gap or two (in black) away from the hole to allow the defenders to flow over the top.  On this play, I highlighted in yellow the unblocked defender that would flow if Martin had pressed the hole correctly and waited for the cutback.  Instead Martin goes straight for the cutback in blue, which is premature due to his depth of seven yards from the end zone.

This angle illustrates why Martin’s cut was ineffective.  The defender in yellow didn’t flow very far and Martin is cutting to get to the end zone from six yards away. Two frames later the same defender in yellow is meeting Martin four yards deep in the hole and Doug has nowhere else to turn.

In a backwards way this decision might have worked for Martin if he had chosen this hole initially and then cut to the right (black).  The point is that running backs get huge gains when they allow aggressive defenses to flow in one direction and then cut back and Martin could have been productive with a press and cut in either direction. Instead Martin immediate tries to cut back and is lack of of patience results in no gain.

Screen Pass

Martin makes a poor choice on this screen play.  After catching the pass, he cuts inside of his blockers to the middle of the field (blue).  Players should rarely cut to the middle of the field on a screen pass. Reading the initial block is necessary and the desired route for Martin (in black) would take him to the outside with more room to operate.

Multiple frames later, Martin’s poor decision becomes clearer. Surrounded by multiple defenders, Martin’s gain is minimal compared to the 20 yards he should have earned (at least) if he chose the desired path (in black) and have more positive options. One would be to make the defender (in yellow) miss or benefit from his extra blocker to help him get into a crease. Instead he gains just nine yards because of his urgency to make something happen rather than allow the play to develop with just a touch more patience.

Facing an Unblocked Defender

I won’t spend much time on this play because it’s simple.  Life (black) or death (blue).  The unblocked defender is coming off the edge and Martin decides to fit it inside instead of running to daylight.

The end result is a two-yard gain.

Examples of Martin’s Progress

During the last three games prior to the Raiders match up, Martin has generated a significant increase in production. His 58 attempts for 296 yards with a 5.1 yards-per-carry average with 2 touchdowns and 8 receptions for 207 yards and 1 touchdown is a massive improvement. Let’s explore his recent positives.

Stretch Play

A few frames into this stretch play, Martin has a cutback lane (in blue).

 This time he’s patient and doesn’t go right away to the hole.  He takes the mature RB route to press the hole (in black) to set up the defense.  The defender (in yellow) is responsible for the quarterback Josh Freeman.

Below is a different angle that gives the play more perspective.

It only takes a couple of steps from Martin to make the defense over pursue and leave a nice cutback lane to the left.  This makes for a one-on-one match-up with an unblocked defender for Martin and earns him a lot of green grass.

From this angle, it’s easy to see the wall formed from the backside offensive linemen and why the cutback was a good decision.  Martin (yellow) only needs to make the defender (brown) miss for a big play.  The result of the play is a six-yard gain, but it shows the patience necessary to succeed at the NFL level.

Interesting how a longer run can be considered a more inefficient play than a shorter one, but the context of the blocking scheme, the defense, and the players’ decisions is vital.

Draw Play vs. Minnesota

This is a few seconds into a draw play against one of the better run-stopping defenses in the NFL, the Minnesota Vikings.

Martin has many options and chooses to cut to his right (black arrow), which leaves him one on one with a defender (yellow).

A second later you can see the defender (yellow) closing on the ball and Martin (red) cutting behind his blocker to find a better path.  In past weeks, Doug Martin would have just lowered his shoulder and earned a four-yard gain.  But he’s evolving into a runner who is learning when to lower the pads and take what’s ahead of him and when he should be more creative and patient. Running the football is a true balancing act when it comes to decision-making, especially as the speed, knowledge, and athleticism of the opposition is a notch higher than the runner’s previous level of competition.

Two frames later, Martin is one on one with a defender (yellow) in the hole. Notice the pursuit over the top of the defender (brown), this is why pressing the hole on this play is important.

Martin thinks better of the hole because of the defender over top and continues to cut behind his blockers. Martin changes direction all the way left and the defender over top (brown) is now out of position on the cutback.  Harrison Smith (yellow) is coming downhill too hard at the point of attack and Doug Martin makes him pay for it.

I apologize for the perspective of the shot above, but it’s the only one to show the pursuit angles of the defense.  The defender over the top (brown) is out of position and now trailing Martin (black) who is taking an angle to the sideline.  Harrison Smith (yellow) takes his downhill angle too fast and now has to adjust his path in hopes of catching Martin.  This play was likely a four-yard gain before the cutback, but Martin transforms it into a 41-yard gain down the sideline. He wasn’t too urgent with his decision-making. Instead the rookie keeps his head up, doesn’t over react, and makes the defense pay for being aggressive. That’s the balance act of running the football that separates NFL-caliber talents for NFL starters.

Screen Pass

This is a few seconds into a screen pass where once again he cuts to the middle of the field, but this time it’s a good decision. Doug Martin makes the correct choice by reading his initial block (yellow).  The intriguing part is what happens later in this play.

As Martin uses his power to break through two arm tackles, he keeps his eyes down field.  His lineman should take care of blocking the safety in orange, but the other safety in blue is coming into play.  Martin clearly has his eyes on him and cuts to stay close to his blocker.  This is impressive in many ways: difficult to focus down field while breaking two tackles, anticipating the angle of the safety, and the patience to hug the blocker to gain the maximum amount of yards.

From this angle you can see that the other safety (blue) is going to be just a little bit too far away to tackle Martin on this play.  Had Martin not hugged this block and anticipated the angle, I don’t think this play goes for a 64-yard touchdown.  Good blocking by the offense, but great play by Doug Martin. It’s a subtle adjustment, but the ability to read and react to the play with just a nuance of patience makes all the difference.

Stretch Play with ISO Component vs. Unblocked Defender

The offensive linemen are stretch blocking to the left with a lead blocker taking on the linebacker, mixing in a little bit of a ISO to the play.  The Vikings linebacker (yellow) does a great job of taking on the lead blocker deep in the backfield and winning at the point of attack.

Having the designed hole blown up by the linebacker, Martin is forced to cut back.  With the unblocked defender (yellow) closing on the backside, Martin does try to fit it inside like he did in the last example against the unblocked defender. He remains patient and jump cuts around the garbage in the backfield.

A few frames later, Martin is around the trash and continuing with the play design.  What would’ve been a two-yard gain, Martin turns into nine yards.

The progression of Doug Martin has been impressive.  Perhaps he’s become more comfortable with Tampa Bay’s schemes.  Perhaps he’s learning the speed of the game.  Perhaps he’s become a more patient runner.  All I know is that his last three weeks isn’t a mirage, just a glimpse of what’s to come.

Nick Whalen is a former high school quarterback with experience as an assistant student coach with Drake University, Carthage College, and Montana State. He also spent two years as an assistant student coach with Western Kentucky. He has been a quarterback, wide receiver, and defensive back coach for three different high school teams. Whalen is a writer at Dynasty Rogues. Here’s his RSP Writer’s Team and Q&A. You can also check out his piece “What is Wrong with Jay Cutler?” at the RSP blog. Follow Nick at @_NickWhalen. 

Fantasy Football Mailbag Week 9

Will Dwayne Bowe be a top-five fantasy receiver in 2013 if Geno Smith joins the Chiefs? See below in this week’s mailbag. Photo by Jeffery Beall.

For great fantasy football information, rankings, projections, strategy articles, podcasts, sleepers – you name it – go to Footballguys.com. 

@ToshMarks Think Dwayne Bowe is a top-5 guy next season if he elects to stay w/ Geno Smith in KC? 

A: No. As good as Geno Smith can become as an NFL quarterback, and as good as recent rookie quarterbacks have been in their first year in the league, let’s examine some of those situations to understand why the chances of Bowe becoming a top-five fantasy option at receiver is possible, but still improbable if the Chiefs draft Smith in April. Cam Newton helped revive Steve Smith’s career in 2011, and Smith was just outside the top-five – No.6 among fantasy receivers last year – with a total of 79 catches, 1394 yards and 7 scores. Depending on your league’s scoring system, he might have been a top-five guy. Reggie Wayne has a shot to be a top-five receiver this year with Andrew Luck  this year. His 54 catches for 752 yards and 2 scores places him in the top 10 in most leagues.

Fortunately for Bowe if he stays in Kansas City, Smith is a pocket passer. This will give the veteran a solid chance to return to his potential as a top-10 fantasy receiver. Two years ago he was the No.2 fantasy receiver in many leagues with 72 catches, 1162 yards, and 15 touchdowns, but Matt Cassel had a year that earned him an invitation to the Pro Bowl. As much as we can project Smith to be an eventual improvement to the Chiefs passing game, I think vaulting Bowe to top-five status during Smith’s first season when he don’t know who will coach the Chiefs, who will coach the Chiefs offense, and what type of offense Kansas City will use to pair with the rookie.

If Smith plays to Newton or Luck’s standard of passing production as rookies, then I think Bowe is a good gamble to crack the top-10. Note that Smith had 7 touchdowns with Newton and Wayne is projected to have 4 scores with Luck this year. Bowe’s top-five season in 2010 was a 15-touchdown affair. I don’t think Bowe is that much better of an option in the red zone than Smith and Wayne. He may be a more user-friendly option for a young quarterback due to his size, but I’m not willing to project more than six to eight touchdowns for Bowe if Smith plays as well as Newton or Luck. That production alone will make it unlikely for Bowe to achieve that kind of production.

Bowe is a good buy-low if you believe he’ll stay in Kansas City and the Chiefs take a high-profile quarterback prospect in the 2013 Draft. Of course, a good or bad buy-low is a hindsight judgment later and a gamble now. You like gamble? We gamble. 

@meadsentim Hi Matt! WDIS non-ppr; need two: Harvin, Cobb, and Wayne. Thanks!

Harvin gets a tough draw this week against the Seahawks, but @meadsentim’s options aren’t much better. Photo by Mark Trammell.

A: If you’re seeking upside, Harvin and Cobb are the best two options because of their big-play ability and use in the red zone. Wayne only has two touchdowns this year. You could say Wayne is “due” but I prefer to think he’s just not a good red zone option this year due to the Colts young offense and the priority defenses place on defending the veteran in that area of the field. Dolphins cornerback Sean Smith has played good football while covering primary receivers during the month of October.

Despite the lack of red zone love, Wayne is probably the safest play because Harvin faces a stifling Seahawks defense and Cobb draws the Cardinals. If Jordy Nelson returns this week then Cobb isn’t going to see as much time against Patrick Peterson, which makes him a nice gamble if you’re seeking a high-upside option. However, I think Cobb will be the biggest gamble in that situation – he’s capable of fantasy WR1 production, but his downside will be WR4, or worse. Harvin is a physical player and combined with his speed, I think he’s capable of performing as no less than a fantasy WR3 this week. Wayne has the least upside, but the least downside.

@Gbucki19 Matt love your insight on the audible. Desperation PPR play due to Sproles injury: Stephens-Howling or Joique Bell?

A: Thanks GB,  I’d go with Bell because of the match-up with the Jaguars, his use in the passing game, and the consistency factor. Stephens-Howling is more likely to break off a long run or pass reception for a score. It’s up to you to decide which you want, but I’d go with Bell.

@Rodriguez350Z Would you give up Spiller and Decker for Mega in PPR? Have Roddy/DMoore/Torrey/Dez/JStew/Trent/RJennings on team?

Would you trade C.J. Spiller and Eric Decker for Megatron? Photo by Matt Britt

A: In a dynasty league, I’d see if I could give up Torrey Smith and Spiller for Calvin Johnson because Decker is going to be a more consistent force for the next two to three years if the Ravens offense remains the same during that span. The Ravens don’t use Smith all over the field with as much frequency as the Broncos use Decker. If your trade partner balks at Smith, I’d make the deal even if it didn’t help me this year. In a re-draft league with a winning team I’d stick with what you have because Calvin Johnson’s knees are clearly bothering him and Decker has a fantastic schedule ahead while Spiller is a reasonable fantasy RB2 and Stewart remains a gamble. If your team is questionable to make the playoffs and you need to go big or go home, this trade would be the appropriate gamble.

@StanStanislav Redraft nonPPR – my QBs are crap. Trade Alf Morris for Jon Stewart and Vick? Other RBs are Mathews and DMC.

[youtube=http://youtu.be/2B1QxOmbMZ0]

A: If I could give ALF and Jon Stewart and get Vick in return, I’d do it in a heartbeat – as long as I can get something back for Stewart because he’s funny. As for this deal with the actual football players, I don’t know what you define as “crap” in terms of quarterback play. I’d be more inclined to trade Mathews and see if you can get an upgrade to Vick if the perception on Mathews is higher. It might not be. I’d take the gamble if this is the potential difference between making the playoffs and your team being done by Thanksgiving.

@cappcc Decker, AndreJ, Cobb, Wayne…pick 3. Non-ppr, 50 ret yd/pt

A: Leave Cobb out of the equation because he’s likely to see Patrick Peterson in heavy doses since Jordy Nelson remains a game time decision.

@9ssg Forgot to pull offer last night giving mega/BJGE for Charles/Wayne. Owner accepted this morning after Injury. Am I screwed?

A: Not at all. Charles passed concussion tests, Johnson’s knees are bugging him just as Titus Young and Ryan Broyles are emerging, and Reggie Wayne is one of the steadiest players you can have at the position. If anything, your trade partner might be feeling like he got the worse end of the deal. You have more upside with Charles and Wayne.

@jackedup Then what is Casey worth keeping for as RB or TE? 

A: If your league allows you to keep James Casey as a tight end, do it. Just understand that you better be in a pretty deep league to be hanging onto him and Texans tight end Garrett Graham has a lot of skills that are similar to Owen Daniels so Casey is not guarantee as the next man up if Daniels goes down.

@Lukinrats Give Hartline and Leshoure to get D.Moore or trade Wayne to get Cruz?

Denarius Moore has fantasy WR1 upside down the stretch. Photo by Wade Rackley.

I’d trade Hartline and Leshoure to get Moore because of Moore’s schedule and the fact that Wayne for Cruz is a bit of wash. Both receivers have good schedules down the stretch so the point differential doesn’t to project to that different. Moore has the upside to perform like a strong, fantasy WR2 that I don’t see with Hartline and Leshoure continues to split time with Joique Bell in a pass-first offense. I’m presuming you have two better starting running backs to do this deal. See if you can get something back for Hartline and Leshoure – a handcuff running back that doesn’t see the field but has a good schedule ahead if his starter gets hurt – or a young receiver with promise if a similar situation were to arise.

SmithingaboutFB:With news of Megatron, would you vault Titus Young over Spiller, Jimmy Graham, or Harvin for flex? (TE not required)

A: If you go more towards the math of week production that somewhat accounts schedule within it then Young isn’t a bump over these three starters. If you don’t heavily factor the weekly math then I’d consider Young over Spiller or Harvin but I think it’s a huge risk and wouldn’t recommend it.

American_Grown: I need a bye-week replacement at TE (Dwayne Allen or Jared Cook) and two of Alex Green, Sidney Rice, and Torrey Smith, thanks!

A: I’d stick with Green another week and as strange as it sounds, sit Smith against the Browns’ Joe Haden and take a shot on Rice. It’s all very close. I would say that Smith has more upside, but also greater downside than Smith. I just think Green is a talented runner who just hasn’t been patient. The team is aware of it and trying to work with him. I think Arizona’s run defense is bad enough that it could be a solid week for him. Plus, get gets the carries. Odds are in his favor that enough good comes from it. Cook probably has more upside, but with Fleener out I’d go with Allen, who I think will benefit this week.

FFonmymind: Which side do you like in this PPR Dynasty Trade: Ray Rice for Doug Martin and Hillman?

Hard to trade Ray Rice in a dynasty league, but there are factors that make it easier. See below. Photo by Lewis McChord.

A: If I’m in contention this year, I keep Rice. In fact Rice should be a strong RB1 for another three to four years. However, if I’m playing the odds with a team I’m rebuilding, Martin and Hillman are the smarter deal due to upside. Martin already has the feature back role with a coach that recruited Rice to Rutgers and knew how to use him. Martin reminded me of a mix of Rice and Frank Gore so I think that makes the deal appealing. Willis McGahee is playing good football, but Ronnie Hillman has Tiki Barber-like potential. He’s earning enough carries this year that he should be in contention to have a C.J. Spiller-like breakout next. That’s two starters for the price of one big-time starter. If you know that you’re not likely to make the playoffs this year, Rice is probably worth trading away for this duo. See if you can squeeze a draft pick or two from this deal before saying yes.

Who is Virgil Green?

Green was seventh round pick of the Broncos, but he was my top tight end for fantasy-oriented owners looking for a player with sizable upside from the 2011 NFL Draft class of tight ends. Photo by Jeffery Beall.

Virgil Green’s 3-catch, 44-yard debut (with 5:34 left in the game) with Peyton Manning might be a surprise to some. However, the tight end from Nevada is a well-known stash for those who get the Rookie Scouting Portfolio publication each April. I don’t know if Green will be an option once Joel Dreessen returns from his injury but he is a talent to keep an eye on despite the fact that his draft status didn’t match my evaluation and Julius Thomas was the more regarded prospect. His performance was indicative of what I saw from him as a collegian. Below is my evaluation of Green prior to the 2011 NFL Draft.  Continue reading

Mike Gillislee and the Currency of Respect

Gators runner Mike Gillislee understands the currency for respect in the game of football. Photo by Photo-Gator.

Hitting and guts are the currency of respect in the game of football. A football player that can deliver a hit, take a hit, and play with abandon earns respect from teammates, opponents, and fans. When I watch a prospect, these three aspects of football stand out immediately when I see them. Said player may not have the technical or conceptual skills, or physical talent to become an NFL player, but hitting and guts make a great first impression.

Florida running back MIke Gillislee delivered a strong first impression against Texas A&M in the 2012 opener. Although I watched him carry the ball 14 times for 83 yards and 2 touchdowns, the box score only reveals the tip of the iceberg. What the stat line doesn’t show is that Gillislee’s best runs – both statistically and otherwise – came during his final eight carries after he injured his groin in the first offensive series and required an A-C bandage. Continue reading